Hey, welcome to the Fantasy Football Game Plan. Today we are talking player props, who we think will, will excel and who we think will flop on week one. I'm here with Quentin and he's run all the data and the numbers. But before we jump in to specific players, can you tell me the kickoff rule changes for 2025 and the impact of the rule changes on scoring?

Yeah, there's not too many changes. I mean, we still got the tush push, but one important thing to note is that the dynamic kickoff that got introduced yesterday, or the dynamic kickoff that got introduced last year, so they have to kick it inside the landing zone or else the ball comes out to the 30. This off season, it was changed to the 35 yard.

All right, and what's that going to mean for us? Did we see anything in preseason? That kind of gives us a glimpse of what changes might be ahead this year.

Yeah. In short, that just means more points. So the NFL is gonna keep bumping up that. Yard line until they see the desired behavior of these teams actually kicking in the landing zone and actually getting these kick returns. So last year everyone just decided it wasn't really worth it. But just moving the ball from the 25 yard line to the 30 yard line increased the points per drive from 1.77 all the way to 2.01. So we have almost a quarter point per drive, just because of that. Dynamic kickoff introduced and now they're moving it to the 35 yard line. So now it's up to the teams. Do they still want to take that 35 yard line, starting field position for their opponent, um, or actually work on this landing zone and work with their kicker and special teams to get that dial down?

Which teams look to be doing it well in preseason and ready for this change.

So some of the best teams, I went through all of the preseason games and some of 'em was kind of a headache because they use multiple kickers. They're not using their starting kicker. But I tried to go through of just data points we had of the starting kick kicker for that team. And some of the best kickoff special teams units were Carolina, the Jets, and Pittsburgh. And something to note there is were much better than. Just the 30 yard line from last year. So in the preseason there are about the 26 yard line, all three of those. So teams have to go further to score on them, and especially the Jetson Pittsburgh that are playing each other this week, that just leaves more room for really good defenses to shine and make the, uh, other teams work harder for those points.

So I am sensing less scoring and maybe we're going to be talking about quite a few unders on these player props.

Yeah, absolutely. And then some of the worst teams, so their opponent is getting the ball, further down the field and it's easier for them to score was Detroit, green Bay and Washington. And Detroit and Green Bay are also our case study of when we have two bad teams playing each other. How does this affect the game? But that game's already supposed to be very high scoring, which means a lot of kickoffs, which kind of magnifies. problem for them because you're gonna have more kickoffs and the ball's coming out further now against a really good offense that's gonna lead to another kickoff. So it might, uh, really increase those chances of a true like firework show of having those crazy 70 point, uh, total games.

Well, I'm gonna be excited to see what we get to talk about next week when we have some real data and not just preseason to talk about on these kickoffs. So let's kick it off with, what are some of your favorite prop bets this week?

One of my themes is, fading some of the younger starting quarterbacks, and it all kind of starts down, starts out with Cam Ward. I'm taking his under 193 and a half yards at minus one 15. That Broncos passing defense is just a brutal debut for Cam Ward, and we typically see these first overall picks. Struggle against their, top five defense. Um, the only. Real way I see this not hitting is if the Broncos just get up by so many that they don't really care and they're sitting back in a soft zone coverage and just kind of letting Cam Ward get his, um, some completions in the second half and maybe he accumulates enough yards. But I think they kind of want to set an example. It's week one, they're gonna be at home and I think they're fine. Uh, just kind of taking it to 'em all game.

Yeah, I think they will be too. The Broncos defense is tough. We saw that last year, and like you said, it's week one and everyone's fired up and they're going to try to make an example. Who else on the young quarterback side are you fading?

The other one I'm going with is Spencer Rattler. So during the summer we didn't even think he was going to be the starting quarterback for the Saints. Everyone thought it was gonna be shock. People had kind of ridden off Rattler 'cause we saw what he did last year. I mean, last year he was pretty horrific. He had more interceptions and touchdowns. I think he had an Owen seven record as a starter. But somehow he won the job, which I think might say more about Chuck than Rattler. but I'm fine. Taking his under on completions against the Cardinals defense. So the line I saw was 19 and a half, and I just think that's too many for a 57% completion percentage quarterback, especially against a really improved defense. What's your take on that?

Yeah, I see the Cardinals improve this year too, and probably just wanting to run the clock out in this. They get up early, they start running the ball, and I mean, I guess the, the Saints may have to try to throw, and that would be kind of the scary situation.

But I think we're gonna see a heavy dose of James Connor and probably even some Trey Benson worked in for the Cardinals. This is gonna be one of the slower games as far as pace of play. I see it ending sooner than, uh, we'd like and we hit the under for 19 and a half completions.

Yeah, 19 and a half is kind of getting up there for, uh, rattler, so I can see that happening in this game. Any quarterback you do like this week.

This is our week to really call our shot, and haven't seen a lot of these guys in their new system. The person I'm calling the shot on is Michael Pennix against the Tampa Bay Defense. The bet and the angle I like the best in this game is over 35 and a half yards for his longest completion. It's kind of very specific, but man, he loves to take deep shots. He loves to push the ball down the field. He's got the arm to do it. He was hitting them in the three game sample, uh, we have of last year. He had an eight, eight and a half big time throw rate per PFFs data. Um, so he's a gun slinger. He wants to take shots to pits in London. Then you always have an out with, if Bijan takes a screen pass for 40 yards.

I think that's what would have to happen is Bijon taking a screen pass for 40 yards and that one definitely could happen. Uh, I, I am. I'm not on pennex, but, uh, we, we differ on the whole Falcons offense and we've shared notes on that. You wanna fade your other young quarterbacks? Well, pennex is right there in young, like you, you said He has three and a half game samples. So I am, I'm out on Pennix. This isn't a. A chance that I wanna take, although the Bijan pass and taking out 40 yards I can buy into, I'm not buying into London, I'm not buying into downfield throws, and I think the bucks are actually gonna be better this year.

I do like this angle for it for the best. You're not saying that he's gonna be a highly accurate quarterback. You're not saying continued success for the game. You just need that one big play to hit and the bucks allowed them last season. So if we look at the divisional games, they allowed this long pass in five of six games and against the teams that they didn't allow a deep pass somewhere in the game to, it was a lot of those. Kind of poor performing offenses. So I mean, we talk about Kansas City that just keeps everything towards the line of scrimmage. Uh, Jayden Daniels in his debut when he was really only allowed to throw screen passes Bo Nicks in week three when he still had the training wheels on, and then DeVito for the Giants at AIN O'Connell like those. If those are the sample that didn't get it done, uh, I think we have a better bet to be on the other half of that. so I like Pennix here. I have over 35 and a half.

I also have doubts about week one, and I would love to see the information. You know, are there fewer big play completions in week one versus week five? I also have an issue that the Falcons didn't really play anybody in pre-season, and I don't feel like there's that chemistry going that you need to create these 36 yard plays. I just feel like it's all still missing in week one, unless you have. Some really good players that have worked together a long time.

Yeah, I think we're gonna get the shots. isn't gonna be afraid to throw 'em, it's just will they actually be completed?

Okay? We're gonna have to agree to disagree on this one until week two.

We'll get to see Sunday.

We will get to see Sunday. Uh, what else do you have for us?

I was kind of going through, uh, just touchdown bets and which people I like. So we already talked about how the true potential of that Green Bay Detroit game to be. Fireworks, like hit the over and go over 55 points. So I like Jameson Williams to get a piece of that. Um, I also like James Connor. So we talked about Rattler, but on the other side, James Connor should get a heavy dose of carries and that is the one of the worst defensive lines in the NFL on the Saints. So I think he's gonna be very successful in those carries well too, especially these older players. Uh, they tend to. the season. Well, you know, especially when their legs are fresh. Um, so I like James Connor to get in the end zone. And then the last one is Bucky Irving. I just think with the injuries to Godwin, uh, McMillan and even Tristan wfs, it's going to make Tampa Bay get Bucky Irving really involved in the passing game as well as the running game. And I just like that workload. For a touchdown, those odds. So Jameson Williams was at plus two 20, James Connor's at minus 1 55 and then Bucky's at minus 1 45.

I definitely like the James Connor and the Bucky Irving. I am really heavy on running backs in week one, just because I feel like that needs to be your focus and like I just said, you know, you haven't built that chemistry in a lot of situations unless you're talking about Chase and Burrow and situations like that, that that's definitely different. But if I'm looking. For who I wanna bet money on, it's gonna be on the running backs. And I do like those too. I am not so sure about Jameson Williams, but I do like him and I think that if the lions are going to win that game, he's going to be involved.

Yeah, and a lot of this was just trying to follow what the teams. Want their identity to be like James Connor is a captain for that team. He's one of the leaders in the locker room for those cardinals. And I think week one they get an easier matchup and they wanna kind of push some people around and, uh, dominate on the line of scrimmage.

Sounds promising. Definitely. I did have one rushing, one that I didn't like and that was Isaiah Pacheco. I like his under in our Friday game against the, with where we see the Chiefs and the Chargers playing. So Isaiah Pacheco under 52 and a half total yards. I think that the chiefs may need to be, uh, a little more aggressive in this game against the Chargers and that. The Chargers have a really good defense as well, so his rushing numbers, I expect to be a little bit lower this week. What do you think about that one?

I like it too because I'm thinking back to week one, last season in that Brazil game and the players sliding around like they were on ice. So

Yeah.

Pacheco, who kind of has that weirder running style in general. Um, I like his under for 52 and a half yards.

All right. That's the only pick I've got. What else do you have for us?

Well, we've been talking a lot about the running backs, so I was looking more about their opportunities. I feel like that's easier and more consistent to project. So I thought the, we would do a rushing attempts parlay. I think this pairs very well with, uh, one of dks main promos this week of their ghost leg parlay, where if one leg doesn't hit. You still get paid out for the parlay. So this is kind of one I've made specifically for it, following three running backs and the rushing attempts. So first is Chupa, Chupa, Hubbard, uh, for the Panthers. And I just think this line is way too low of. 13 and a half. I like his over here. This team is a rush first team and it should be a closer game down in Jacksonville. So I'm projecting around 16 rushing attempts and you get plenty of wiggle room with that 13 and a half line.

Okay, who are we parlaying it with?

So next we are taking an under for rushing attempts and this is an under against another rookie. Um, this time RJ Harvey. So RJ Harvey, the rookie running back in Denver. And I'm taking under eight and a half. And it's really just based on Sean Payton and his usage with rookie rookies in the past. We saw him have the training wheels on Bow Next through the first four or five weeks of the season, and him get off to a slow start. And even like previously with the Saints, Alvin Kamara wasn't allowed to carry more than seven times until after their bi-week, his rookie year, even though he was clearly the most explosive back. So I think. Sean Payden will be creative in how RJ Harvey gets touches. Maybe some quick screen passes, um, getting him involved in the passing game. But I think true rushing attempts will mainly go to JK Dobbins and if they get up by a lot, we'll even see like McLaughlin worked in there.

Yeah, I agree. I think we've all been. Reading a little bit too much into Sean Peyton. We did it last year too, and we were really disappointed last year when we didn't have great running backs coming out of Denver. But it's a different situation than he had in New Orleans with Kamara and I think it's just, it's just different. So I like this RJ Harvey under call.

Yeah, he. We'll always use a committee. We know that there's probably going to

Yeah.

four different players with rushing temps when you add Bo Nicks in there too. I just think it's gonna get split up too much for O eight over eight.

Yeah, I think the only way it doesn't happen is if Denver gets way up way early, then they're just trying to run out the clock. And if they've got that big lead, he may give it to Harvey a few more times than he intended to.

Yeah,

Well, what's the last leg of our parlay?

the last leg is actually. Kind of going against what we've heard against training camp and more just following what makes sense for the team. And that is Brie Hall the Jets over 11 and a half rushing attempts. So all off season. We've heard about Braylin Allen, we've heard about the split one to make it a committee and I just don't really believe it. Bralyn Allen had one rush over 12 yards in all of his attempts last year. Andree Hall is just the better back and he is the number one on the depth chart. He is their main back and I think his downfall has been greatly exaggerated in what should be a very competitive game against Pittsburgh. So 11 and a half seems like a bottom of the barrel line for a starting running back and still a talented player.

Definitely, I like this one too. I, I probably wouldn't wanna work that. Isaiah Pacheco under 52 and a half yards in there. Um, but I like all of these, and yeah, if you can just get two of three, then with the DraftKings promotion, you will still win.

Then you'll still get paid out together. All of those, um, are a plus 4 61 bet. So not bad if

Yeah, that is super nice. Super sweet.

If.

right, well that's today's game plan.

Yeah, follow rate. Tell us your favorite play for week one. It is gonna be so exciting to actually have some games on Sunday and I cannot wait for a couple days and getting to watch NFL football. Um,

me too. Uh, the show notes have everything that we talked about, so if you're looking for these bets, you can, you can click on those in the, in the show notes.

play smart. Have fun. Uh, until next time.