1 00:00:03,720 --> 00:00:06,420 Jacob Shapiro: Well honestly, Marco, I usually introduce this, but you just like, 2 00:00:06,780 --> 00:00:09,750 like got this great concept that we're gonna roll out to the listeners right now. 3 00:00:09,750 --> 00:00:12,870 So tell them why our listeners are enjoying their first 4 00:00:12,900 --> 00:00:14,310 pathogen Shapiro six pack. 5 00:00:15,240 --> 00:00:19,260 Marko Papic: Yeah, so, you know, in the ongoing effort to get a six 6 00:00:19,260 --> 00:00:24,540 pack, which will last forever until I die, uh, and will never work 7 00:00:24,660 --> 00:00:26,820 'cause I'm a chubby Serb like Yoki. 8 00:00:27,270 --> 00:00:32,340 Uh, basically we're going to do an intellectual six pack. 9 00:00:33,300 --> 00:00:37,830 And so when we don't have a prepared gimmick, like the top 20 10 00:00:37,830 --> 00:00:41,520 liters in the world or the trade value or whatever, uh, we're just 11 00:00:41,520 --> 00:00:43,230 gonna do a nice little six pack. 12 00:00:43,230 --> 00:00:48,000 And what that means is that, you know, Jacob is gonna have three items of his 13 00:00:48,000 --> 00:00:51,720 own that he didn't necessarily prep me for, except maybe a little bit. 14 00:00:52,200 --> 00:00:57,570 And same with me together, it's a six pack of geopolitical events. 15 00:00:58,065 --> 00:01:02,535 That we think are important for our listeners to hear about. 16 00:01:02,595 --> 00:01:03,165 So there you go. 17 00:01:03,165 --> 00:01:04,035 It's a six pack. 18 00:01:04,215 --> 00:01:05,625 That's what this podcast is. 19 00:01:05,895 --> 00:01:10,425 And every podcast where we don't have a specific topic, we prepared, uh, to 20 00:01:10,425 --> 00:01:14,025 spend like an hour on, like we, you know, we did one about trade and tariffs. 21 00:01:14,415 --> 00:01:15,135 Uh, listen up. 22 00:01:15,135 --> 00:01:16,245 That was a really good one. 23 00:01:16,245 --> 00:01:18,615 Like, go back and listen to it if you have the chance. 24 00:01:18,945 --> 00:01:22,125 Uh, I'm gonna reference it a little bit in one of my six, one of my 25 00:01:22,125 --> 00:01:24,645 three items, but whenever we don't have something, it's just gonna 26 00:01:24,645 --> 00:01:26,385 be a nice little six pack for you. 27 00:01:26,715 --> 00:01:27,285 So there you go. 28 00:01:32,835 --> 00:01:33,285 Jacob Shapiro: That's perfect. 29 00:01:33,585 --> 00:01:34,335 That's, that's perfect. 30 00:01:34,365 --> 00:01:36,645 Are, are you more of a, what, what, what is your favorite beer? 31 00:01:36,645 --> 00:01:37,485 I should know this about you. 32 00:01:38,325 --> 00:01:40,815 Marko Papic: Uh, oh, that's an interesting, so I'm not a beer drinker, 33 00:01:41,085 --> 00:01:44,865 you know, it's, uh, all my friends from college remember me as the guy 34 00:01:44,865 --> 00:01:50,715 who just walked the dorm hallways with like a bottle of, uh, Olli, you 35 00:01:50,715 --> 00:01:54,255 know, like, so I come from Europe, uh, and I went to university in Canada, 36 00:01:54,255 --> 00:01:55,395 university of British Columbia. 37 00:01:55,395 --> 00:01:56,535 Shout out to the Thunderbirds. 38 00:01:57,134 --> 00:02:00,884 And everyone's basically an alcoholic, right? 39 00:02:00,914 --> 00:02:02,804 And everyone's drinking beer nonstop. 40 00:02:02,804 --> 00:02:04,185 And I'm like, why are we drinking beer? 41 00:02:04,185 --> 00:02:05,205 Is it somebody's birthday? 42 00:02:05,205 --> 00:02:06,825 And they're like, no, mark, it's Tuesday. 43 00:02:07,185 --> 00:02:07,935 We get drunk. 44 00:02:08,685 --> 00:02:09,465 That's what we do. 45 00:02:10,125 --> 00:02:12,704 And so I was like, okay, but why don't we cut out the middleman? 46 00:02:12,765 --> 00:02:15,375 I eat the carbs and just go straight to the alcohol. 47 00:02:15,375 --> 00:02:19,245 Like what's, what's, why, why is the vessel through which 48 00:02:19,245 --> 00:02:22,425 you consume alcohol only 6%. 49 00:02:22,425 --> 00:02:23,475 Why not go to 40? 50 00:02:23,475 --> 00:02:25,575 Like, I don't understand if the point is to get drunk. 51 00:02:26,775 --> 00:02:29,265 So I was the guy with a bottle of vodka, right? 52 00:02:29,265 --> 00:02:31,755 And uh, I've never really acquired beer. 53 00:02:32,144 --> 00:02:36,435 Like I still drink like only laggers 'cause I'm thirsty and it's super hot. 54 00:02:36,735 --> 00:02:39,555 So yeah, the short answer is it's, I'm still light. 55 00:02:42,434 --> 00:02:42,655 Jacob Shapiro: Ugh. 56 00:02:43,380 --> 00:02:43,975 Uh, the log 57 00:02:44,475 --> 00:02:45,295 Marko Papic: is nothing, you know? 58 00:02:45,765 --> 00:02:46,054 Jacob Shapiro: Yeah. 59 00:02:46,380 --> 00:02:46,890 I got you. 60 00:02:46,890 --> 00:02:49,529 Well, my six pack, I, I've, I've evolved quite a bit. 61 00:02:49,529 --> 00:02:52,529 When I was a, when I was in college, you would not see me with a bottle of stole. 62 00:02:52,529 --> 00:02:55,950 You'd see me with a six pack of some, uh, pretentious IPA, because 63 00:02:55,950 --> 00:02:57,089 you know, that sounds about right. 64 00:02:57,359 --> 00:02:58,470 Course you Cornell 65 00:02:58,470 --> 00:02:58,799 Marko Papic: man. 66 00:02:59,399 --> 00:03:00,269 Jacob Shapiro: Yeah, Cornell man. 67 00:03:00,299 --> 00:03:02,070 I mean, IHA Cap, I think a brewing company. 68 00:03:02,070 --> 00:03:02,279 Great. 69 00:03:02,279 --> 00:03:05,489 But then I OD'ed on IPA to the point where now I just want like 70 00:03:05,489 --> 00:03:07,649 the most boring beers possible. 71 00:03:07,649 --> 00:03:12,029 Uh, and actually athletic does this light non-alcoholic beer, which is 72 00:03:12,029 --> 00:03:13,679 like, it gets you 80% of the way there. 73 00:03:13,679 --> 00:03:15,929 'cause all you're really drinking the beer for is you wanna feel 74 00:03:15,929 --> 00:03:17,969 like it's hot and you're at the ball game and things like that. 75 00:03:17,969 --> 00:03:20,549 And I find that drinking the non-alcoholic light beer. 76 00:03:20,940 --> 00:03:24,239 I'm like 80% of the way there and I could still function at five o'clock in the 77 00:03:24,239 --> 00:03:27,660 morning with my eight month old the next day, like clean up a blown out diaper that 78 00:03:27,660 --> 00:03:29,310 covered the entire, that was this morning. 79 00:03:29,310 --> 00:03:32,670 Anyway, not to go on that, but I'll also say I've been converted by the great 80 00:03:32,670 --> 00:03:37,380 people in Wisconsin Spotted Cow, which is only available in the state of Wisconsin. 81 00:03:37,739 --> 00:03:38,370 It's delicious. 82 00:03:38,370 --> 00:03:41,820 And every time I go do a gig or visit Wisconsin, I bring spotted cow. 83 00:03:41,825 --> 00:03:44,459 I, I buy it in the airport and I bring it back to Louisiana. 84 00:03:44,459 --> 00:03:46,230 I'm basically smuggling it down the bayou. 85 00:03:46,350 --> 00:03:47,579 That's how I think of it myself. 86 00:03:47,940 --> 00:03:48,570 And it's delicious. 87 00:03:48,570 --> 00:03:51,000 They actually, you know, they, they followed me on Twitter. 88 00:03:51,030 --> 00:03:52,980 I tried to get them to come on the podcast. 89 00:03:52,980 --> 00:03:53,399 No way to talk. 90 00:03:53,399 --> 00:03:57,359 Like geopolitics is beer or geography of different alcohol consumption. 91 00:03:57,359 --> 00:04:00,959 So, we'll, we'll tweet this FM and see if No, come on, because I love that 92 00:04:00,959 --> 00:04:01,410 Marko Papic: concept. 93 00:04:02,625 --> 00:04:03,779 That's a great concept. 94 00:04:03,779 --> 00:04:03,989 Yeah. 95 00:04:04,230 --> 00:04:06,269 Geopolitics of alcohol consumption. 96 00:04:06,359 --> 00:04:11,459 But I also just want to note that the fact that we are, um, you know, 97 00:04:11,459 --> 00:04:15,390 lovingly and longingly calling this the six pack, 'cause we don't have one. 98 00:04:15,989 --> 00:04:18,269 We're talking about what beer we drink. 99 00:04:18,660 --> 00:04:23,730 Like, this is clearly a like early, like late thirties, early 100 00:04:23,730 --> 00:04:26,580 forties, two dudes talking. 101 00:04:27,390 --> 00:04:29,670 Just, we've definitely aged ourselves. 102 00:04:29,670 --> 00:04:31,320 But yeah, so, uh, it's an interesting segue. 103 00:04:31,320 --> 00:04:33,540 I didn't know we were gonna talk about beer and alcohol consumption, 104 00:04:33,540 --> 00:04:34,800 but I'm not a beer drinker. 105 00:04:34,800 --> 00:04:34,980 Yeah. 106 00:04:35,340 --> 00:04:37,380 Jacob Shapiro: You know, I, I also come by this honestly because if the 107 00:04:37,380 --> 00:04:40,980 Nazis had not taken over Vienna and tried to kill all the Jews, my family, 108 00:04:40,980 --> 00:04:44,730 which was distilling millions of dollars equivalent worth of alcohol 109 00:04:44,730 --> 00:04:46,350 in Vienna would still be in Vienna. 110 00:04:46,350 --> 00:04:48,960 I wouldn't be sitting here with you in, uh, in the United States 111 00:04:48,960 --> 00:04:50,010 thinking about geopolitics. 112 00:04:50,070 --> 00:04:51,480 So, wow. 113 00:04:51,540 --> 00:04:54,210 I guess if, if, if you want to thank someone for me taking this turn to 114 00:04:54,210 --> 00:04:55,830 geopolitics, you can thank Hitler. 115 00:04:56,010 --> 00:04:58,650 That's an interesting way to get to the reductive odd hit, Lauren. 116 00:04:58,950 --> 00:04:59,275 Anyway, this 117 00:04:59,275 --> 00:05:03,600 Marko Papic: is, uh, this is time 74 that you have said something like 118 00:05:03,600 --> 00:05:05,010 that, and I can't comment on it. 119 00:05:05,040 --> 00:05:09,000 Only you can, because you are the Jew on the podcast, and I will just sit 120 00:05:09,120 --> 00:05:12,435 silently and I guess nod like, hmm. 121 00:05:13,170 --> 00:05:13,590 Interesting. 122 00:05:14,310 --> 00:05:16,560 Jacob Shapiro: It's the only form of Jewish privilege there is. 123 00:05:16,770 --> 00:05:17,160 Okay. 124 00:05:17,160 --> 00:05:17,250 Yes. 125 00:05:17,250 --> 00:05:17,370 Let's, 126 00:05:17,735 --> 00:05:22,920 Marko Papic: I'll not take, I'll not take Aal Hitler for anything, but you are of 127 00:05:22,920 --> 00:05:24,630 course, allowed to do whatever you want. 128 00:05:25,080 --> 00:05:26,130 Uh, cool. 129 00:05:26,280 --> 00:05:27,150 So who starts, all right. 130 00:05:27,300 --> 00:05:27,810 You or me? 131 00:05:28,020 --> 00:05:29,220 Jacob Shapiro: Uh, well, it's up to you. 132 00:05:29,220 --> 00:05:31,350 'cause you, you coined the, the bit, so why don't you 133 00:05:31,350 --> 00:05:32,550 pick, you, you wanna go first? 134 00:05:32,550 --> 00:05:34,110 Or, or you wanna give the g the first? 135 00:05:34,185 --> 00:05:34,305 I, 136 00:05:34,585 --> 00:05:38,550 Marko Papic: I, I feel, I, I feel like yours are more profound. 137 00:05:38,580 --> 00:05:40,260 Like, I think yours are more profound. 138 00:05:40,260 --> 00:05:41,640 Mine might be more nichey. 139 00:05:41,970 --> 00:05:44,580 So why don't you start, because I know you're itching to talk, I 140 00:05:44,580 --> 00:05:45,870 think about the trade deals, right? 141 00:05:45,870 --> 00:05:48,900 This is the first part of our muy six pack. 142 00:05:49,110 --> 00:05:49,620 Jacob Shapiro: Yeah. 143 00:05:49,620 --> 00:05:52,080 I'm, I'm itching to talk about the US and Europe. 144 00:05:52,740 --> 00:05:54,625 Um, let's do, and their, and their trade deal. 145 00:05:54,870 --> 00:05:56,700 Marko Papic: And by the way, I just wanna say like, I think one of the 146 00:05:56,700 --> 00:06:01,470 best, uh, reactions to that trade deal is Jacob's reaction, uh, that you, 147 00:06:02,010 --> 00:06:04,890 uh, sent through your Substack, right? 148 00:06:04,890 --> 00:06:08,040 So you have, if you have not signed up for Jacob's Substack, 149 00:06:08,040 --> 00:06:09,330 you should I read the whole piece? 150 00:06:10,140 --> 00:06:11,790 I thought that you were spot on. 151 00:06:11,790 --> 00:06:15,270 So why don't you tell our listeners what's your take of the US EU 152 00:06:15,270 --> 00:06:18,690 trade deal and maybe just outline it a little bit for our listeners. 153 00:06:19,965 --> 00:06:21,375 Jacob Shapiro: Yeah, that, that's very nice of you to say. 154 00:06:21,375 --> 00:06:24,315 I'm, I'm trying to put more work into substack, putting thoughts out 155 00:06:24,315 --> 00:06:26,955 that are available for people when they're cutting room floor in two, 156 00:06:26,985 --> 00:06:28,125 two interesting things about that. 157 00:06:28,125 --> 00:06:30,435 Number one, I've been using a lot of chat GPT lately. 158 00:06:30,435 --> 00:06:34,040 That piece was the first time in six weeks where every single word is me. 159 00:06:34,595 --> 00:06:38,435 I didn't use any chat, GPT, and it landed with readers way more than 160 00:06:38,435 --> 00:06:39,635 anything else I've written recently. 161 00:06:39,635 --> 00:06:40,835 And I think there's a lesson in that. 162 00:06:40,835 --> 00:06:43,805 I think maybe we're over, or at least I was over indexing on chat 163 00:06:43,805 --> 00:06:46,535 GPT and LLMs for research purposes. 164 00:06:47,045 --> 00:06:48,335 Um, so that was an interesting thing. 165 00:06:48,725 --> 00:06:52,235 The other thing is that that piece was written while my eight month 166 00:06:52,235 --> 00:06:55,385 old and my three-year-old were literally in the room next door. 167 00:06:55,385 --> 00:06:57,875 The door was shut, but at various points, my three-year-old was like 168 00:06:57,875 --> 00:06:59,855 banging on the door, like calling for me. 169 00:06:59,855 --> 00:07:00,845 They were screaming. 170 00:07:00,845 --> 00:07:02,555 My mother-in-law was folding laundry. 171 00:07:02,555 --> 00:07:06,305 I had like, I had these noise canceling headphones and like jacked all the way up. 172 00:07:06,305 --> 00:07:09,065 I probably lost a year of hearing 'cause I like could not hear myself 173 00:07:09,065 --> 00:07:10,505 as I was typing out those words. 174 00:07:10,505 --> 00:07:11,915 And it really landed with people. 175 00:07:11,915 --> 00:07:16,475 So I guess what I really need to write well is just sheer chaos and 176 00:07:16,475 --> 00:07:18,155 a sanity around me at all times. 177 00:07:18,695 --> 00:07:23,405 Um, but anyway, so the, the, the US EU deal quote unquote, uh, 178 00:07:23,405 --> 00:07:24,485 what did, what did Trump call it? 179 00:07:24,485 --> 00:07:25,325 Hold on, lemme quote him. 180 00:07:25,595 --> 00:07:28,955 The biggest deal ever made, uh, since the last deal that he made. 181 00:07:28,955 --> 00:07:31,415 'cause I'm pretty sure he says that about literally every single thing. 182 00:07:32,475 --> 00:07:34,485 It's a framework trade agreement. 183 00:07:34,545 --> 00:07:37,305 Marco, I don't know what the fuck a framework trade agreement is. 184 00:07:37,305 --> 00:07:38,205 Is it a treaty? 185 00:07:38,205 --> 00:07:39,315 Is it an agreement? 186 00:07:39,315 --> 00:07:40,755 Is it a MOU? 187 00:07:40,785 --> 00:07:43,755 Like I still don't have a, like what is a framework trade agreement and 188 00:07:43,755 --> 00:07:46,695 how lazy are Reuters in the financial times and everybody else that you're 189 00:07:46,695 --> 00:07:48,105 just like, like treating that. 190 00:07:48,105 --> 00:07:48,825 Like that's a thing. 191 00:07:48,825 --> 00:07:49,784 Like it's not a thing. 192 00:07:49,784 --> 00:07:53,625 A framework trade agreement doesn't, anyways, sorry, I don't need to go 193 00:07:53,625 --> 00:07:56,565 Larry David on you, but, um, so there 194 00:07:56,925 --> 00:07:57,555 Marko Papic: please do. 195 00:07:57,765 --> 00:07:58,845 This is why you're here. 196 00:07:59,415 --> 00:08:00,015 Jacob Shapiro: I know you are 197 00:08:00,015 --> 00:08:03,555 Marko Papic: Larry, David and Silla combined in one human being in 198 00:08:03,555 --> 00:08:03,855 Jacob Shapiro: one. 199 00:08:03,855 --> 00:08:06,075 This is why I also can't watch Curb Your Enthusiasm. 200 00:08:06,075 --> 00:08:09,735 Like my wife wants to watch Curb and I'm like, it, it's a little too close to home. 201 00:08:09,735 --> 00:08:13,335 Like I need to actively resist becoming that personality. 202 00:08:13,395 --> 00:08:14,505 Uh, it's just not good. 203 00:08:14,625 --> 00:08:16,995 It's not like good for me from a mental, this is also why I can't 204 00:08:16,995 --> 00:08:18,345 watch Woody Allen movies too much. 205 00:08:18,345 --> 00:08:20,505 'cause like it's just, it's a little too close. 206 00:08:20,505 --> 00:08:21,225 I need to stay away. 207 00:08:22,230 --> 00:08:24,750 Anyway, so there's this US EU deal. 208 00:08:24,750 --> 00:08:26,340 We don't even really know what the terms are. 209 00:08:26,340 --> 00:08:29,219 There are already reports out there that the terms are different depending 210 00:08:29,219 --> 00:08:34,049 on who's who's, uh, which side says, um, the US is apparently gonna push 211 00:08:34,049 --> 00:08:36,720 it through via executive order, which I'm pretty sure is illegal. 212 00:08:37,260 --> 00:08:41,314 Um, the EU still has to ratify it at a certain level via majority, but at least 213 00:08:41,314 --> 00:08:44,340 some of the things that we know, EU goods. 214 00:08:45,045 --> 00:08:48,405 Entering the US will be subject to a 15% baseline tariffs. 215 00:08:48,585 --> 00:08:50,895 Donald Trump had threatened 30% by August 1st. 216 00:08:50,895 --> 00:08:55,005 If there wasn't a deal, the tariff will cover, or at least as we think it is, 217 00:08:55,005 --> 00:08:57,735 is gonna cover about 70% of EU exports. 218 00:08:57,735 --> 00:09:01,845 Now, there are other things like pharmaceuticals and timber and lumber. 219 00:09:01,845 --> 00:09:04,815 That is, they have section 2 32 trade investigations there 220 00:09:04,820 --> 00:09:07,365 that are maybe gonna affect the final rates and things like that. 221 00:09:07,815 --> 00:09:11,295 There will be some zero for zero tariffs on things like aircraft and 222 00:09:11,295 --> 00:09:15,885 certain chemicals and certain drugs and certain semiconductor equipment. 223 00:09:16,215 --> 00:09:19,995 Uh, certain doing a lot of work, uh, in a lot of these things, they still have 224 00:09:19,995 --> 00:09:21,435 not decided the most important thing. 225 00:09:21,435 --> 00:09:25,035 To our point on beer, what are the tariffs on alcohol, wine, 226 00:09:25,035 --> 00:09:26,805 cognac, whiskey, French cheese. 227 00:09:26,805 --> 00:09:28,215 That's the one I really care about. 228 00:09:28,215 --> 00:09:30,255 We don't have those answers yet, so I'm pissed off. 229 00:09:30,260 --> 00:09:31,160 And then also, and those are, 230 00:09:31,575 --> 00:09:33,135 Marko Papic: and just, just those are critical. 231 00:09:33,135 --> 00:09:33,495 Yeah, please. 232 00:09:33,555 --> 00:09:36,975 'cause we of, we of course know, uh, the insatiable appetite that 233 00:09:36,975 --> 00:09:38,955 Europeans have for American beer. 234 00:09:42,390 --> 00:09:45,600 Jacob Shapiro: Right, right, right, right alongside their American cars. 235 00:09:45,600 --> 00:09:48,480 They'll put the American beer in the cup holder and drive on the auto bond, 236 00:09:48,510 --> 00:09:50,850 uh, with the, with the American cars. 237 00:09:51,030 --> 00:09:56,849 And then to really top it off, um, the EU is gonna invest 600 billion 238 00:09:56,850 --> 00:10:01,230 into the US over Trump's second term and is gonna buy energy. 239 00:10:01,530 --> 00:10:03,540 Uh, what, 750 billion? 240 00:10:03,540 --> 00:10:05,670 Was that how much they promised to buy of energy? 241 00:10:05,675 --> 00:10:05,875 No. 242 00:10:06,120 --> 00:10:06,360 Uh, I 243 00:10:06,360 --> 00:10:10,560 Marko Papic: think it's actually been revised to $70 trillion of energy. 244 00:10:12,209 --> 00:10:12,870 Jacob Shapiro: Well, there you go. 245 00:10:12,870 --> 00:10:16,680 So the eu, I guess they're just gonna take a bunch of l and g and put it in Hungary 246 00:10:16,680 --> 00:10:19,740 or put it wherever they don't wanna put it so that they can just use it forever. 247 00:10:20,220 --> 00:10:21,510 Um, I don't really understand. 248 00:10:21,510 --> 00:10:23,459 So that, that's the outline of the deal. 249 00:10:23,670 --> 00:10:26,280 I said in my piece, look, I think there's two ways to look at this. 250 00:10:26,310 --> 00:10:30,510 Europe is fundamentally weak and it's gonna be a battleground in a multipolar 251 00:10:30,510 --> 00:10:34,500 world rather than a poll or, um, and this goes back to something we've 252 00:10:34,500 --> 00:10:35,490 talked about for a while, Marco. 253 00:10:35,490 --> 00:10:38,670 The people who win trade wars are the people who don't fight trade wars. 254 00:10:39,105 --> 00:10:41,865 So the EU basically declined to fight a war. 255 00:10:41,955 --> 00:10:45,405 Ursula of Underlain has taken all the heat from people and saying, all right, 256 00:10:45,405 --> 00:10:47,505 I will be, I will bear this cross. 257 00:10:47,895 --> 00:10:50,445 Um, and we got from 30% to 15% terrorists. 258 00:10:50,445 --> 00:10:53,895 But the real news is that, you know, Germany just passed a record 259 00:10:53,895 --> 00:10:58,065 budget about enabling, you know, uh, deficit spending and everything else. 260 00:10:58,575 --> 00:11:02,895 Um, even inertial love under underlying statement, she said, okay, like, we're 261 00:11:02,895 --> 00:11:05,685 doing this, but this means we have to take bold action at home to make 262 00:11:05,685 --> 00:11:09,045 sure that Europe is more competitive, more innovative, more dynamic, 263 00:11:09,105 --> 00:11:10,005 you know, all these other things. 264 00:11:10,395 --> 00:11:12,045 Um, Europe could have pushed a little bit more. 265 00:11:12,045 --> 00:11:15,465 They could have said, well, actually, like if you look at services, the trade 266 00:11:15,465 --> 00:11:17,385 deficit surplus situation is reversed. 267 00:11:17,385 --> 00:11:18,705 Mr. Orange, man, do you wanna talk? 268 00:11:18,735 --> 00:11:19,635 They didn't do any of that. 269 00:11:19,845 --> 00:11:21,015 They, they put it aside. 270 00:11:21,375 --> 00:11:22,275 They closed a deal. 271 00:11:22,275 --> 00:11:25,455 And I ended on, I think this is short-term weakness, but it, 272 00:11:25,470 --> 00:11:26,955 it is for long-term strength. 273 00:11:27,045 --> 00:11:29,835 And I think if you're counting Europe out, you're making a mistake. 274 00:11:29,835 --> 00:11:32,805 And then the last point, I would just make Marco on this is, and I, I, I feel 275 00:11:32,805 --> 00:11:34,155 like I only realized this a week ago. 276 00:11:34,155 --> 00:11:35,565 Maybe I should have realized it already. 277 00:11:36,015 --> 00:11:37,425 US foreign policy these days. 278 00:11:37,845 --> 00:11:42,645 Makes way more sense if you analyze it as if it was a reality TV show than as 279 00:11:42,645 --> 00:11:46,875 if we were using our geopolitics and political science brains and things 280 00:11:46,875 --> 00:11:48,345 like, all those models don't work. 281 00:11:48,345 --> 00:11:51,315 But if you think of this as just a reality TV show, this is the 282 00:11:51,315 --> 00:11:52,845 apprentice's tariffs edition. 283 00:11:53,535 --> 00:11:55,455 Actually, all of this makes perfect sense. 284 00:11:56,205 --> 00:11:59,355 So I wanted to see where you are, but I, I think you'll be with me in, in Europe 285 00:11:59,355 --> 00:12:00,915 and in, in having some faith in Europe. 286 00:12:01,785 --> 00:12:03,975 Marko Papic: I loved your piece, you know, and I loved it because 287 00:12:04,005 --> 00:12:07,965 what you did is you outlined the two, two ways to look at this. 288 00:12:08,865 --> 00:12:12,945 And I think that, uh, first of all, by the way, on, on the quip about TV shows, 289 00:12:12,945 --> 00:12:17,535 I've told my clients, uh, in the financial community, basically when they scoffed 290 00:12:17,685 --> 00:12:21,915 at the idea that Trump would be able to conclude trade deals in three months. 291 00:12:22,395 --> 00:12:25,395 I said that you scoff only because you lack imagination. 292 00:12:26,415 --> 00:12:30,915 And if you are, uh, speaking to way too many learned trade 293 00:12:30,915 --> 00:12:36,705 negotiators, these are not trade negotiations for Geneva, for the WTO. 294 00:12:37,470 --> 00:12:41,305 These are trade negotiations for made for TV trade deals. 295 00:12:41,305 --> 00:12:41,584 Mm-hmm. 296 00:12:41,665 --> 00:12:42,300 That's what I call them. 297 00:12:42,300 --> 00:12:44,010 So we're fully aligned with that. 298 00:12:44,430 --> 00:12:49,980 Um, I think that objectively speaking, like if you just use mathematics and you 299 00:12:49,980 --> 00:12:55,439 objectively look at this trade deal, you objectively have to say that America won. 300 00:12:56,675 --> 00:13:01,350 If you say anything other than that, you have Trump derangement syndrome. 301 00:13:02,400 --> 00:13:07,439 This is the way I like test people, like who won the trade deal in 302 00:13:07,439 --> 00:13:09,150 objective mathematical terms. 303 00:13:09,150 --> 00:13:11,189 And if somebody tells me, well, Europe won. 304 00:13:11,189 --> 00:13:14,370 I'm like, uh, guys, Europe will apply two point a half 305 00:13:14,370 --> 00:13:16,110 percent tariff on America cars. 306 00:13:16,410 --> 00:13:19,319 Americans will apply 15% tariff on European cars. 307 00:13:19,319 --> 00:13:21,990 Like this is obviously an America victory. 308 00:13:21,990 --> 00:13:26,220 The problem is that it's a pure hick victory, which is like, 309 00:13:26,220 --> 00:13:28,680 it's a rock throwing competition. 310 00:13:28,680 --> 00:13:29,939 It's like two kids. 311 00:13:30,300 --> 00:13:30,660 No, no. 312 00:13:30,660 --> 00:13:32,615 Like here's an analogy if you want, it's two children. 313 00:13:33,795 --> 00:13:36,825 Trying to see who's going to throw the rock more accurate 314 00:13:36,975 --> 00:13:40,605 accurately at the principal's car in the parking lot of your school. 315 00:13:41,955 --> 00:13:47,625 And one kid is purposely like missing and the other kid is like, fucking nailed it. 316 00:13:48,075 --> 00:13:49,319 And then here comes Mr. 317 00:13:49,319 --> 00:13:49,754 Garrison. 318 00:13:49,755 --> 00:13:50,955 It is like, what the hell did you do? 319 00:13:51,525 --> 00:13:51,735 Right? 320 00:13:51,735 --> 00:13:52,725 Oh, sorry, Mr. Mackey. 321 00:13:52,935 --> 00:13:55,185 Like that was not nice. 322 00:13:55,215 --> 00:13:58,965 Okay, so the point that I'm getting at here is that, yeah, 323 00:13:58,965 --> 00:14:00,435 America won, but what did it win? 324 00:14:00,435 --> 00:14:02,805 Your, to your point, the way you put it was like, you don't 325 00:14:02,805 --> 00:14:04,035 wanna really fight a trade war. 326 00:14:04,035 --> 00:14:09,375 And one of the reasons is that, um, this first order effect is what Reuters 327 00:14:09,375 --> 00:14:14,175 and Bloomberg, and most of my clients, quite frankly, on Wall Street, and 328 00:14:14,175 --> 00:14:18,255 most people on fin Tweet, they're obsess about first order effects. 329 00:14:18,255 --> 00:14:19,245 Like, yeah, absolutely. 330 00:14:19,245 --> 00:14:23,025 Donald Trump cleaned the floor with Ursula of Underlaid. 331 00:14:23,925 --> 00:14:28,755 However, tariffs are not good, like for your economy. 332 00:14:29,250 --> 00:14:32,430 Not because of some petty, idiotic reason, like their inflation. 333 00:14:32,430 --> 00:14:32,969 Who cares? 334 00:14:32,969 --> 00:14:34,079 I, I'm, I'm okay with that. 335 00:14:35,160 --> 00:14:36,209 And they will raise revenue. 336 00:14:36,209 --> 00:14:36,750 That's great. 337 00:14:36,750 --> 00:14:37,229 Well done. 338 00:14:37,260 --> 00:14:38,130 You're all like, cool. 339 00:14:38,400 --> 00:14:40,979 The problem is that I'm not sure that you want to protect 340 00:14:40,979 --> 00:14:42,359 your domestic car industry. 341 00:14:42,630 --> 00:14:47,729 This is the land and the path and the narrative of import substitution. 342 00:14:47,729 --> 00:14:50,729 This is the way that you lose productivity. 343 00:14:50,729 --> 00:14:55,829 This is the way you rest on your laurels and you let the big three, Detroit, which 344 00:14:55,829 --> 00:15:01,530 has effectively ceased to be able to produce, uh, what's the word, a sedan. 345 00:15:04,500 --> 00:15:07,890 You let them basically just get lazy in fat. 346 00:15:08,640 --> 00:15:11,939 Competition is how you get productive. 347 00:15:12,180 --> 00:15:15,240 I mean, look, obviously if you're a developing nation and you 348 00:15:15,240 --> 00:15:19,979 don't have a car industry at all, fine slap a 50% tariff on cars. 349 00:15:19,979 --> 00:15:24,060 So you can maybe learn how to build a car domestically, but you wanna take them 350 00:15:24,060 --> 00:15:25,979 off in order to be competitive globally. 351 00:15:26,475 --> 00:15:30,615 And that's what the irony of this is like, yes, America absolutely won. 352 00:15:30,765 --> 00:15:36,075 Objectively speaking, America will now apply 15% tariff on a European car. 353 00:15:36,075 --> 00:15:42,225 Europe will have to apply 2.5%, but no one's gonna buy American cars in Europe. 354 00:15:43,095 --> 00:15:46,605 You know, other than Tesla, like no American car is gonna be purchased. 355 00:15:46,665 --> 00:15:48,435 You, you could put a negative tariff on them. 356 00:15:48,435 --> 00:15:50,415 Like here, I'll give you 10%. 357 00:15:51,045 --> 00:15:55,065 So if a American car costs two thou 20,000 euros, I'll give you 2000 euros. 358 00:15:55,395 --> 00:15:57,405 How are you gonna park in F-150? 359 00:15:58,395 --> 00:16:00,885 How are you gonna parallel park it in Brussels? 360 00:16:02,140 --> 00:16:04,275 Jacob Shapiro: You know, like, I mean as, as, as we've talked about before, 361 00:16:04,275 --> 00:16:08,625 the real market to to capitalize on for, for trucks is gonna be your 362 00:16:08,625 --> 00:16:10,905 jihadis and your formerly ISIS guy. 363 00:16:10,905 --> 00:16:10,995 Yes. 364 00:16:10,995 --> 00:16:11,265 Make sure. 365 00:16:11,265 --> 00:16:11,324 Yeah. 366 00:16:11,324 --> 00:16:13,214 And they're driving Toyotas, so, yeah, that's 367 00:16:13,214 --> 00:16:13,395 Marko Papic: right. 368 00:16:13,545 --> 00:16:16,005 Make sure Afghanistan has like, look, look. 369 00:16:16,545 --> 00:16:20,265 But seriously, I think that this is the point of this, I think, I think 370 00:16:20,265 --> 00:16:23,745 there is some level of tariffs the United States probably should apply in 371 00:16:23,745 --> 00:16:25,095 order to deal with its fiscal issue. 372 00:16:25,095 --> 00:16:27,704 I think that's where I am more aligned with the Trump administration. 373 00:16:27,915 --> 00:16:32,564 15% is I think, too high and I think it's not too high because 374 00:16:32,564 --> 00:16:33,735 the consumers can't take it. 375 00:16:33,735 --> 00:16:35,655 Although yes, that is a concern of mine as well. 376 00:16:36,135 --> 00:16:40,214 The other concern I have is that protecting American industry is a 377 00:16:40,214 --> 00:16:46,635 sure way to ensure that it collapses not tomorrow, not in two or three 378 00:16:46,635 --> 00:16:47,834 years, but in five to 10 years. 379 00:16:47,834 --> 00:16:52,214 So if you're listening to this podcast and you don't have like a PhD in economics 380 00:16:52,214 --> 00:16:55,845 or you're not like a CFR member or you're not somebody who understands these things 381 00:16:55,845 --> 00:16:56,985 'cause you think about 'em all day. 382 00:16:57,405 --> 00:16:59,145 I just wanna make sure you understand. 383 00:16:59,865 --> 00:17:02,595 It is not good to protect your industries. 384 00:17:02,715 --> 00:17:05,175 Just like it's not good to coddle your children. 385 00:17:05,595 --> 00:17:11,025 Like if you give your children $3,000 monthly allowance, guess what? 386 00:17:11,025 --> 00:17:13,125 You're never going to learn how to do. 387 00:17:13,454 --> 00:17:14,385 Get a job. 388 00:17:15,735 --> 00:17:17,295 It doesn't matter how rich you are. 389 00:17:17,295 --> 00:17:20,835 You should not be coddling your industries, especially when you 390 00:17:20,835 --> 00:17:25,425 are a rich, advanced, industrial, productive country like America. 391 00:17:25,425 --> 00:17:28,215 You are not, you're not starting a car industry. 392 00:17:28,215 --> 00:17:28,785 You have it. 393 00:17:28,965 --> 00:17:32,145 You need to expose it to international competition. 394 00:17:32,385 --> 00:17:35,445 You need to ensure that when Cadillac makes a sedan to fight 395 00:17:35,445 --> 00:17:39,855 against BMW three series, it doesn't need that 15% tariff to survive. 396 00:17:40,215 --> 00:17:42,795 Rather, people around the world are like, you know what? 397 00:17:42,795 --> 00:17:44,745 I would like to drive a Cadillac. 398 00:17:45,105 --> 00:17:47,205 Like I actually think that's a really good car. 399 00:17:47,505 --> 00:17:50,805 So right now America makes like pickup trucks and giant SUVs for 400 00:17:50,805 --> 00:17:52,605 family of 14 or Uber drivers. 401 00:17:52,605 --> 00:17:53,295 Like that's it. 402 00:17:53,865 --> 00:17:59,235 If you are in a market for a pickup truck or in a three row sedan, so you can be 403 00:17:59,235 --> 00:18:01,755 an Uber driver, you favor American cars. 404 00:18:01,755 --> 00:18:02,775 Everybody else, no. 405 00:18:02,805 --> 00:18:03,855 Like not, not really. 406 00:18:04,815 --> 00:18:06,255 And so I think that's a problem. 407 00:18:06,255 --> 00:18:08,385 And I think that tariffs are not gonna help. 408 00:18:08,385 --> 00:18:08,685 That. 409 00:18:08,715 --> 00:18:11,805 They're gonna actually impede that over the long period of time. 410 00:18:11,985 --> 00:18:14,865 They're gonna ensure that American industry actually gets lazy. 411 00:18:14,865 --> 00:18:17,475 So I would say that from that perspective, it's a mistake. 412 00:18:17,655 --> 00:18:20,925 The other thing you mentioned is the rest of the world is going to do 413 00:18:20,925 --> 00:18:23,475 what President Trump says right now. 414 00:18:23,475 --> 00:18:26,205 You you, what was the way you phrased this? 415 00:18:26,745 --> 00:18:27,645 Wait and see. 416 00:18:27,705 --> 00:18:30,795 Didn't you have a, like everyone's just kind of doing what he wants 417 00:18:30,795 --> 00:18:32,715 right now, but they're buying time. 418 00:18:33,765 --> 00:18:35,265 I think you used the term buying time. 419 00:18:35,625 --> 00:18:38,385 A lot of the countries are going to give President Trump what he wants, 420 00:18:38,385 --> 00:18:40,035 which is the apprentice moment. 421 00:18:40,185 --> 00:18:41,475 You know, you're fired. 422 00:18:41,835 --> 00:18:42,945 Oh, I'm so sorry. 423 00:18:43,845 --> 00:18:47,205 You know, everyone's gonna kowtow publicly and in those three to five 424 00:18:47,205 --> 00:18:51,105 years, they're gonna learn to wean themselves off the us I think one 425 00:18:51,105 --> 00:18:52,635 of the greatest powers of the US. 426 00:18:53,895 --> 00:18:59,085 Is that it allows the rest of the world to become addicted to it, to its market, 427 00:18:59,294 --> 00:19:01,125 to its technology, to its culture. 428 00:19:02,115 --> 00:19:05,745 I don't think you want to start, I mean, again, if your objective is to 429 00:19:05,745 --> 00:19:10,095 preserve American power over the next 10, 15 years, not the next two years, 430 00:19:10,845 --> 00:19:13,665 then I don't think it's really smart to be encouraging the rest of the 431 00:19:13,665 --> 00:19:17,804 world, including your allies, to start weaning themselves off of your market. 432 00:19:18,794 --> 00:19:18,945 Jacob Shapiro: Yeah. 433 00:19:18,945 --> 00:19:19,034 I 434 00:19:19,034 --> 00:19:19,605 Marko Papic: think that's 435 00:19:19,710 --> 00:19:19,929 Jacob Shapiro: it. 436 00:19:20,564 --> 00:19:23,175 It, it's funny because in our last episode you talked about how Trump was 437 00:19:23,175 --> 00:19:26,804 caught liver oil and now like what Trump is doing is he's more like a twinie. 438 00:19:26,865 --> 00:19:29,730 Like it's, there's literally no Well, twin benefit to like, 439 00:19:30,885 --> 00:19:32,625 Marko Papic: well, I think he's a twinie to the us. 440 00:19:32,625 --> 00:19:35,415 When I said he's called liver oil, I meant to literally every 441 00:19:35,415 --> 00:19:36,915 country other than the us Yeah. 442 00:19:36,915 --> 00:19:37,814 Which is consistent. 443 00:19:38,085 --> 00:19:39,585 Which is consistent with your view. 444 00:19:39,794 --> 00:19:42,195 You're basically saying like, look, I don't think that 445 00:19:42,195 --> 00:19:43,514 Amer, uh, that Europe lost. 446 00:19:43,514 --> 00:19:45,044 I think Europe is just buying time. 447 00:19:46,455 --> 00:19:46,635 Yeah. 448 00:19:47,264 --> 00:19:50,985 And, and they're buying time to do stuff that Trump is forcing them to do. 449 00:19:50,985 --> 00:19:56,595 But those, that stuff, those reforms will be good for Europe, not necessarily for 450 00:19:56,595 --> 00:20:02,355 the us and unfettered access to American markets, which a lot of market camp hates. 451 00:20:02,355 --> 00:20:07,125 They think it's like just wanton, magnanimous without any 452 00:20:07,125 --> 00:20:08,475 concern for national interest. 453 00:20:09,044 --> 00:20:10,065 I disagree with that. 454 00:20:10,065 --> 00:20:13,754 I think that access to the American market, American consumers, that 455 00:20:13,754 --> 00:20:16,725 access has been one of the greatest tools of American foreign policy. 456 00:20:17,325 --> 00:20:22,095 And it's the stick that America has used to ensure the rest of the world remains 457 00:20:22,095 --> 00:20:25,395 addicted to its services, products, goods, markets, blah, blah, blah. 458 00:20:25,965 --> 00:20:28,544 And now President Trump has basically said like, look, we 459 00:20:28,544 --> 00:20:32,745 will use that access willy-nilly to accomplish whatever we want. 460 00:20:32,835 --> 00:20:37,034 And I think that will be that called liver oil that forces Canada, Europe, 461 00:20:37,034 --> 00:20:38,895 China, everyone else to say, okay, fine. 462 00:20:39,044 --> 00:20:41,955 Let's make a five year plan to become less reliant in the us. 463 00:20:43,035 --> 00:20:45,555 Jacob Shapiro: When you said wanton, magnanimous, magnanimous. 464 00:20:45,855 --> 00:20:47,895 I I thought you were saying wonton for a second. 465 00:20:47,895 --> 00:20:50,025 I thought we were gonna start talking about wonton soup and South 466 00:20:50,025 --> 00:20:51,255 Park and a bunch of other things. 467 00:20:51,315 --> 00:20:53,925 Um, but I, I have three signals and then I'll, and then I'll turn it 468 00:20:53,925 --> 00:20:56,595 over to you for our second beer, because there's a lot of noise here. 469 00:20:56,595 --> 00:20:59,775 And I, I put three signals, or I identified three signals in all this. 470 00:20:59,775 --> 00:21:03,795 The first, and I just sort of brushed this aside, but Germany, Germany's government 471 00:21:03,795 --> 00:21:09,345 approved a draft 2026 budget that includes a record investment of 126 billion euros 472 00:21:09,735 --> 00:21:15,705 and borrowing 175 billion euros more for a big package on infrastructure and defense. 473 00:21:15,765 --> 00:21:19,335 So that sound that you can hear in the background listeners, those are 474 00:21:19,365 --> 00:21:23,055 the gears of German industry getting ready to fuck up the rest of the world. 475 00:21:23,175 --> 00:21:25,605 When they decide that they wanna start doing things, 476 00:21:26,055 --> 00:21:27,195 they will start doing things. 477 00:21:27,195 --> 00:21:30,225 So there's your one signal, your second signal, and this was something 478 00:21:30,225 --> 00:21:33,375 I was ac the, the second, yeah, we'll go back to the Hitler stuff. 479 00:21:33,375 --> 00:21:36,945 Like my distillery was in the cross airs the last time this shit happened. 480 00:21:36,945 --> 00:21:40,455 I am perfectly placed to tell, I hear the sound it's coming. 481 00:21:41,580 --> 00:21:44,669 The second thing, and I was actually surprised about this, Marco, if you look 482 00:21:44,669 --> 00:21:50,939 at both non-military and military aid given to Ukraine in 22 to 24 versus so far 483 00:21:50,939 --> 00:21:53,820 this year in 2025, it's basically Europe. 484 00:21:54,600 --> 00:21:55,710 It's not the United States. 485 00:21:55,710 --> 00:21:58,080 So we've been hearing for years the Europeans aren't there, 486 00:21:58,080 --> 00:21:59,160 they're not supporting Ukraine. 487 00:21:59,460 --> 00:21:59,580 Oh yeah. 488 00:21:59,580 --> 00:22:00,570 In, in 2025. 489 00:22:00,570 --> 00:22:02,430 You surprised they've been supporting Ukraine? 490 00:22:02,550 --> 00:22:03,870 I, I didn't know it was that big. 491 00:22:03,870 --> 00:22:05,760 Like I thought it was, ah, maybe it's more 50 50. 492 00:22:05,760 --> 00:22:06,389 Maybe it's 60. 493 00:22:06,389 --> 00:22:09,180 It's not, it's like most of it is coming from Europe. 494 00:22:09,240 --> 00:22:13,590 So like this vision of the Europeans are, are effeminate and puny. 495 00:22:13,920 --> 00:22:14,280 No. 496 00:22:14,340 --> 00:22:17,610 Like they're actually the ones that are standing up the Ukrainians versus Russia. 497 00:22:18,120 --> 00:22:20,790 And then the last thing is just think about all the shit that 498 00:22:20,790 --> 00:22:22,200 Wander land has taken for this. 499 00:22:22,200 --> 00:22:25,200 People like the French Prime Minister, by the way, who cares that France 500 00:22:25,200 --> 00:22:29,129 has a prime minister, but whatever like is is saying she's super weak. 501 00:22:29,129 --> 00:22:30,420 I can't believe we did this. 502 00:22:30,660 --> 00:22:33,389 That's a signal, because that's the Europeans being like, we 503 00:22:33,389 --> 00:22:35,760 don't want to be puny and passive. 504 00:22:35,820 --> 00:22:37,350 We want to be strong. 505 00:22:37,379 --> 00:22:41,700 So the next European commissioner better be muscular and strong. 506 00:22:41,760 --> 00:22:43,740 I think that's actually, you know, people are showing, oh, that's a 507 00:22:43,740 --> 00:22:44,970 sign that Europe is into Clint. 508 00:22:45,180 --> 00:22:45,781 No, no, no. 509 00:22:45,930 --> 00:22:48,930 The reaction is showing you that Europe itself, the median 510 00:22:48,930 --> 00:22:50,310 voter in Europe, if you will. 511 00:22:50,635 --> 00:22:53,785 Doesn't like this, wants to make sure that the next time this 512 00:22:53,785 --> 00:22:56,635 happens, it's Europe that's holding the cards, not the United States. 513 00:22:56,635 --> 00:22:59,215 So like amidst all the noise, like those are the three things that like 514 00:22:59,215 --> 00:23:03,655 really brought me to, uh, in the long term probably better for, for Europe. 515 00:23:04,105 --> 00:23:06,055 Marko Papic: Well, you also said something important, again, 516 00:23:06,055 --> 00:23:07,465 I'm paraphrasing your view. 517 00:23:07,555 --> 00:23:13,015 Uh, you mentioned that all the hate and all the criticism for wander laden 518 00:23:13,645 --> 00:23:15,805 is also a sign that is buck passing. 519 00:23:15,895 --> 00:23:18,985 That's a term that European analysts have used for a long time. 520 00:23:19,285 --> 00:23:22,165 Whenever European member states don't like something, they blame the 521 00:23:22,165 --> 00:23:29,395 commission, but they do that because it's a very painful and, uh, foul 522 00:23:29,395 --> 00:23:31,225 tasting pill they have to swallow. 523 00:23:31,975 --> 00:23:34,495 So they have the commission do it on their behalf. 524 00:23:34,645 --> 00:23:36,205 So again, co liver oil. 525 00:23:36,915 --> 00:23:40,814 Donald Trump is out there handing out a spoon with cod liver oil and it's wander 526 00:23:40,814 --> 00:23:42,645 laden who has to swallow it, right? 527 00:23:42,735 --> 00:23:45,074 And everybody is like, oh, that's so bad. 528 00:23:45,074 --> 00:23:46,304 But actually they all need that. 529 00:23:46,334 --> 00:23:47,774 They, she bought them time. 530 00:23:48,074 --> 00:23:48,405 Right. 531 00:23:48,435 --> 00:23:52,004 And look, ultimately, you and I are both quite bullish Europe and we think that 532 00:23:52,004 --> 00:23:55,094 Europe is gonna do a lot of interesting things over the next five years. 533 00:23:55,094 --> 00:23:58,514 But at the end of the day, we're gonna be right or wrong on whether 534 00:23:58,514 --> 00:24:03,225 they take this time that Ursula of underlaid and bought them with kowtowing 535 00:24:03,225 --> 00:24:08,264 to Donald Trump unceremoniously and quite gracious Ungraciously. 536 00:24:08,925 --> 00:24:12,465 If they just wasted again, as Europeans are known to do, well, 537 00:24:12,465 --> 00:24:14,294 then they will have wasted it. 538 00:24:14,355 --> 00:24:17,264 But the commitment by Germany that you just cited suggests 539 00:24:17,264 --> 00:24:18,764 to me they're not wasting it. 540 00:24:18,855 --> 00:24:22,094 And you know, it was funny when, uh, when Trump met with Frieder Mertz, I 541 00:24:22,094 --> 00:24:26,715 don't know if you caught that really cute and funny moment when, uh, Trump 542 00:24:26,834 --> 00:24:29,024 turns to Chancellor Mertz and goes like. 543 00:24:29,580 --> 00:24:33,570 Oh, and now you've committed to great defense spending. 544 00:24:33,570 --> 00:24:36,060 And you go, Germany has done that in the past. 545 00:24:36,060 --> 00:24:37,050 Maybe too much. 546 00:24:37,050 --> 00:24:37,830 I don't know. 547 00:24:37,830 --> 00:24:41,040 Something, you know, and it was just so funny 'cause it was a Nazi 548 00:24:41,040 --> 00:24:44,550 joke with the German chancellor. 549 00:24:45,360 --> 00:24:48,960 He did like, oh, in the past you guys have maybe done too much defense 550 00:24:48,960 --> 00:24:50,640 spending, I don't know, some say. 551 00:24:50,640 --> 00:24:54,780 And you're like, did you, did you just, you know, like we all have that 552 00:24:54,780 --> 00:24:57,840 German friend that we've like pushed too far and they're like, bro, it's 553 00:24:57,840 --> 00:25:01,140 not actually funny, but Friedrich Mez is there in the White House. 554 00:25:01,140 --> 00:25:02,430 And he's like, haha. 555 00:25:02,430 --> 00:25:04,025 Yeah, we, we did too much. 556 00:25:04,380 --> 00:25:04,890 Like, yes. 557 00:25:05,130 --> 00:25:05,425 Oh my God. 558 00:25:06,775 --> 00:25:08,145 Only all Donald Trump. 559 00:25:08,280 --> 00:25:11,550 And listen, if you don't laugh at that, you've got a Trump derangement syndrome. 560 00:25:11,550 --> 00:25:12,210 Man, it's funny. 561 00:25:12,270 --> 00:25:15,420 It's legitimately the president of the United States of America is making a 562 00:25:15,420 --> 00:25:17,520 Nazi joke to the German chancellor. 563 00:25:18,600 --> 00:25:19,890 That's 2025 for you. 564 00:25:20,070 --> 00:25:20,400 Alright. 565 00:25:20,865 --> 00:25:23,294 Jacob Shapiro: It really, it really like, I mean, Trump has really taken away like 566 00:25:23,294 --> 00:25:27,675 lots of ammo from humor, like South Park to, to be humorous, has to put him in 567 00:25:27,675 --> 00:25:29,294 bed with Satan to make jokes, right? 568 00:25:29,294 --> 00:25:30,675 Because he is taken everything else. 569 00:25:30,675 --> 00:25:33,195 There's literally nothing else you can do except do that anyway. 570 00:25:33,345 --> 00:25:34,215 Open your second beer. 571 00:25:34,220 --> 00:25:34,389 Marko Papic: Yeah. 572 00:25:34,395 --> 00:25:34,995 Yeah, that was, yeah. 573 00:25:34,995 --> 00:25:35,235 Okay. 574 00:25:35,235 --> 00:25:37,274 So I'm opening a second beer over, uh, six pack. 575 00:25:37,274 --> 00:25:42,135 I'm gonna, I'm gonna go a little obscure and, uh, I'm gonna give a shout out. 576 00:25:42,794 --> 00:25:45,375 Uh, obviously you followed this stuff, but, uh, I'm not 577 00:25:45,375 --> 00:25:46,635 sure a lot of other people do. 578 00:25:46,635 --> 00:25:52,875 So I'm gonna give a big shout out to our mutual friend, uh, Matt Kin, who is, uh, 579 00:25:52,875 --> 00:25:54,225 our former colleague from Strat four. 580 00:25:54,225 --> 00:25:58,395 He's my current colleague at, uh, BC Research. 581 00:25:58,455 --> 00:26:02,175 And basically, um, it has to do with a recall election of 582 00:26:02,175 --> 00:26:04,754 24 legislators in, uh, Taiwan. 583 00:26:05,655 --> 00:26:11,745 So basically, uh, the opposition party, KMT, the Kwame Dong, which is the 584 00:26:11,745 --> 00:26:14,985 original of course, uh, existential. 585 00:26:15,360 --> 00:26:20,399 Opponent to the Chinese Communist Party that fled the Chinese mainland to Taiwan. 586 00:26:20,970 --> 00:26:24,270 Uh, they're now in the opposition and have been to the ruling DPP for a while. 587 00:26:25,170 --> 00:26:28,590 They, uh, they're seen as, uh, as, uh, more friendly to 588 00:26:28,590 --> 00:26:31,200 China, uh, in a perverse way. 589 00:26:31,200 --> 00:26:33,840 It's because they believe that they are durational rulers 590 00:26:33,899 --> 00:26:35,399 of all of mainland China. 591 00:26:35,399 --> 00:26:36,780 So like, like, let's leave that aside. 592 00:26:36,780 --> 00:26:37,260 But yes, 593 00:26:37,410 --> 00:26:39,990 Jacob Shapiro: you have, you have to really appreciate the con the intellectual 594 00:26:39,990 --> 00:26:43,230 consistency, like in a world of such hypocrisy, like just sticking with it. 595 00:26:43,230 --> 00:26:44,190 I really appreciate it. 596 00:26:44,399 --> 00:26:44,879 Marko Papic: I do too. 597 00:26:44,879 --> 00:26:45,120 Yeah. 598 00:26:45,120 --> 00:26:49,560 So KMT basically, uh, has always tried to, uh, reduce tensions across streets. 599 00:26:50,160 --> 00:26:55,050 Um, and they, uh, want the legislative election, even though the president 600 00:26:55,080 --> 00:26:59,490 is from the ruling DPP, and he is, uh, you know, pro, I don't 601 00:26:59,490 --> 00:27:02,790 wanna say pro independence 'cause that's not fair, uh, but more pro 602 00:27:02,790 --> 00:27:04,950 sovereignty and definitely anti-China. 603 00:27:05,250 --> 00:27:08,370 And so there was a completely grassroots campaign. 604 00:27:09,090 --> 00:27:10,650 Not aligned with any party. 605 00:27:10,740 --> 00:27:16,650 To be fair, they tried to, but it was very virulently, anti-China grassroots 606 00:27:16,650 --> 00:27:23,640 campaign to recall 24 members of, uh, KMT, um, of their, uh, of their legislative 607 00:27:23,640 --> 00:27:26,490 caucus for basically being Chinese agents. 608 00:27:26,580 --> 00:27:31,830 And, uh, there was a recall election and, uh, they lost the recall lost 609 00:27:32,220 --> 00:27:36,570 across every single one, including a mayoral, uh, uh, actual mayor of one 610 00:27:36,570 --> 00:27:39,810 cities who was a non-GI legislative member who was also being recalled. 611 00:27:40,410 --> 00:27:44,280 And, uh, the reason it's important, of course, is that it shows that, 612 00:27:44,460 --> 00:27:50,400 uh, Taiwanese people are not like solely focused on the China issue. 613 00:27:50,400 --> 00:27:51,510 There are other issues. 614 00:27:51,690 --> 00:27:57,300 They did not want to give the DPA legislative majority because they felt, 615 00:27:57,360 --> 00:27:58,740 well, that's not what we voted for. 616 00:27:59,040 --> 00:28:01,530 We already voted for the opposition to check them. 617 00:28:01,800 --> 00:28:06,690 So the president is opposed by KMT, uh, uh, opposition led. 618 00:28:07,665 --> 00:28:08,385 Legislative. 619 00:28:08,895 --> 00:28:14,025 But the other issue that's important is that had, uh, the president achieved 620 00:28:14,025 --> 00:28:17,865 legislative majority, one of the things he would've tried to push after the 621 00:28:17,865 --> 00:28:22,815 recall is a massive increase in defense spending, which would've of course set 622 00:28:22,815 --> 00:28:28,035 the cross street, um, relations, um, you know, uh, to a different ball game. 623 00:28:28,035 --> 00:28:30,195 I mean, China was obviously already criticizing that. 624 00:28:30,795 --> 00:28:34,935 Um, the reason I wanna bring this up is that he didn't receive that much coverage, 625 00:28:35,205 --> 00:28:39,045 you know, and, uh, Matt, Matt kin and I were in a, in a client meeting actually 626 00:28:39,045 --> 00:28:40,785 yesterday with a sovereign wealth fund. 627 00:28:41,325 --> 00:28:45,855 And, uh, one of the people on that call actually mentioned that like, wow, 628 00:28:45,855 --> 00:28:47,475 like nobody really talks about this. 629 00:28:47,475 --> 00:28:49,335 This seems like a really big issue. 630 00:28:49,725 --> 00:28:53,055 And I mentioned, yes, and the reason I wanted to bring it up is not just 631 00:28:53,055 --> 00:28:55,725 because people in finance should listen to it, but also like just 632 00:28:55,815 --> 00:28:59,625 listeners of this podcast should be aware of a very important reality. 633 00:28:59,895 --> 00:29:02,355 Small countries sometimes change history. 634 00:29:02,955 --> 00:29:06,645 I think too many of us have become enamored with this kind of risk 635 00:29:06,705 --> 00:29:08,565 board game view of geopolitics. 636 00:29:08,565 --> 00:29:12,375 Like, oh, it's China versus us, us versus Russia. 637 00:29:12,705 --> 00:29:18,345 But countries that are often the chess board upon which the game of geopolitical 638 00:29:18,345 --> 00:29:23,205 chess is being played, do, have agency of their own and they can muck up things. 639 00:29:23,500 --> 00:29:28,965 For example, I'm Serbian, I know more about this than anybody else. 640 00:29:28,965 --> 00:29:34,275 Like we literally started World War I, you know, the original terrorist, what's up? 641 00:29:34,335 --> 00:29:38,145 You know, high Five to my brethren, assassinated. 642 00:29:38,325 --> 00:29:41,295 You know your archduke apparently. 643 00:29:41,325 --> 00:29:41,504 Jacob Shapiro: Yes. 644 00:29:41,510 --> 00:29:43,215 He, he was my archduke. 645 00:29:43,215 --> 00:29:43,725 He sure was. 646 00:29:43,725 --> 00:29:43,905 Yeah. 647 00:29:43,995 --> 00:29:47,085 Marko Papic: He was your family's Archduke in Vienna, you know, sitting there trying 648 00:29:47,085 --> 00:29:49,515 to lord over all of continental Europe. 649 00:29:49,935 --> 00:29:50,865 And we were like, no. 650 00:29:51,020 --> 00:29:53,535 Jacob Shapiro: And, and he was still much nicer than what came afterwards. 651 00:29:53,535 --> 00:29:56,295 So, four one, actually, actually, actually, that's the irony. 652 00:29:56,865 --> 00:29:57,254 Marko Papic: Actually. 653 00:29:57,254 --> 00:30:00,675 This is also ironic in a, in a very typical perhaps. 654 00:30:01,320 --> 00:30:03,150 Historically Serbian fashion. 655 00:30:03,150 --> 00:30:07,710 We did shoot ourselves in the foot because one of his ideas was to 656 00:30:07,710 --> 00:30:11,700 bring Serbia into the monarchy and to make it Austria-Hungarian, 657 00:30:11,700 --> 00:30:13,380 Serbian Empire, actually. 658 00:30:13,380 --> 00:30:13,590 Really? 659 00:30:13,980 --> 00:30:14,160 Yeah. 660 00:30:14,160 --> 00:30:18,930 That was like, that was his, like, he was a liberal, like answer to his father. 661 00:30:18,930 --> 00:30:21,180 So actually, you know, but oops. 662 00:30:21,180 --> 00:30:26,010 You know, like, anyways, anyways, details. 663 00:30:27,720 --> 00:30:29,370 We shot that guy down. 664 00:30:29,400 --> 00:30:30,030 You know what I mean? 665 00:30:30,030 --> 00:30:32,100 Anyways, world War, war starts, world war starts. 666 00:30:32,100 --> 00:30:32,280 Starts. 667 00:30:33,480 --> 00:30:40,680 But the point I'm trying to say is that Germany, Russia, Vienna, la, Paris, they 668 00:30:40,680 --> 00:30:42,480 had a very complicated balancing game. 669 00:30:44,910 --> 00:30:52,170 And Serb said, hold my beer or more, more accurately hold my, yeah, we got this. 670 00:30:52,950 --> 00:30:54,150 And they World War I starts. 671 00:30:57,125 --> 00:30:59,400 Jacob Shapiro: It's okay listeners, if, if you're wondering if he just took a 672 00:30:59,400 --> 00:31:00,840 shot of flow of it and he can't hold it. 673 00:31:00,840 --> 00:31:02,250 He didn't, he would be able to hold it. 674 00:31:02,250 --> 00:31:02,910 He just got So, I'm so sorry. 675 00:31:02,910 --> 00:31:03,420 Marko Papic: I'm dying. 676 00:31:05,070 --> 00:31:06,060 Oh, I'm dying over here. 677 00:31:06,060 --> 00:31:10,800 But it was, it was such an exciting, uh, but, but my point is that that's why 678 00:31:10,800 --> 00:31:18,090 it's important item that the situation in Taiwan was actually really important and 679 00:31:18,090 --> 00:31:19,890 it could have had really global relevance. 680 00:31:20,790 --> 00:31:24,420 And I feel like we kind of dodged the bullet, but it also means that 681 00:31:24,420 --> 00:31:28,200 I feel like we don't spend enough time taking Taiwan seriously and 682 00:31:28,200 --> 00:31:30,090 Taiwanese sentiment and politics. 683 00:31:30,090 --> 00:31:30,510 Seriously. 684 00:31:31,470 --> 00:31:31,740 Jacob Shapiro: Yeah. 685 00:31:31,740 --> 00:31:34,470 That's inter, and it also, I think one of the reasons it got covered up was 686 00:31:34,470 --> 00:31:38,700 because you probably saw that Taiwan's president was supposed to transit, uh, 687 00:31:38,730 --> 00:31:40,740 New York on a trip to the Americas. 688 00:31:41,010 --> 00:31:46,020 And it th I mean basically the FT was reporting that the US asked, uh, Taiwan 689 00:31:46,020 --> 00:31:50,340 not to do this so that he would not be on the United States for any of the trip. 690 00:31:51,105 --> 00:31:53,325 People were talking about whether that suggests that the United States 691 00:31:53,325 --> 00:31:55,245 wants to defend Taiwan or not as well. 692 00:31:55,545 --> 00:32:00,075 I mean, most of the polls suggest that, uh, most Taiwanese people don't prefer 693 00:32:00,075 --> 00:32:02,295 independence or reunion with China. 694 00:32:02,295 --> 00:32:03,735 They just prefer the status quo. 695 00:32:03,810 --> 00:32:04,420 That is correct. 696 00:32:04,425 --> 00:32:07,575 And really the job of the Taiwanese president and Taiwanese leadership 697 00:32:07,575 --> 00:32:08,925 is to maintain the status quo. 698 00:32:08,955 --> 00:32:11,535 It's just, it's probably gonna be fundamentally impossible for 699 00:32:11,535 --> 00:32:12,915 them to maintain the status quo. 700 00:32:13,065 --> 00:32:14,025 And you Yeah, go ahead. 701 00:32:14,025 --> 00:32:15,015 I can see you wanna take it. 702 00:32:15,705 --> 00:32:17,865 Marko Papic: Uh, the, just the reason I know those polls very well. 703 00:32:17,865 --> 00:32:22,695 And actually after 2019, after the crackdown in Hong Kong by 704 00:32:22,695 --> 00:32:27,765 China, the sentiment in Taiwan definitely turned anti-Chinese. 705 00:32:27,855 --> 00:32:28,575 Absolutely. 706 00:32:29,265 --> 00:32:37,425 But since 20 22, 20 23, 20 24, uh, specifically since 2022, they've 707 00:32:37,425 --> 00:32:41,655 had a great front row seat to what it looks like to be a chess board. 708 00:32:43,004 --> 00:32:45,830 Just talk to a Ukrainian, you know. 709 00:32:48,315 --> 00:32:51,105 Because America has many ways to defend you. 710 00:32:52,185 --> 00:32:55,935 One of them is to let you have hundreds of thousands of casualties 711 00:32:55,935 --> 00:32:59,505 as you take the brunt of the largest military in the world, in the face. 712 00:33:01,365 --> 00:33:06,315 So it's interesting between 2019 and 2022, there's a lot of chess beating in Taiwan. 713 00:33:06,315 --> 00:33:09,165 Like, yo, we're not gonna turn out like Hong Kong. 714 00:33:09,465 --> 00:33:09,855 You know? 715 00:33:09,855 --> 00:33:15,345 And then you see the status quo support rise over the last three years because 716 00:33:16,005 --> 00:33:19,845 being a chess board sucks a chess board. 717 00:33:19,845 --> 00:33:22,635 And when I say being a chess board, I mean like us and China are clearly 718 00:33:22,635 --> 00:33:24,735 playing a geopolitical game of chess. 719 00:33:25,275 --> 00:33:28,935 You are the chess board, bro, and it's painful to be a chess board. 720 00:33:29,385 --> 00:33:32,565 And so I think that the Taiwanese sentiment has turned towards 721 00:33:32,565 --> 00:33:33,585 the status quo more and more. 722 00:33:33,585 --> 00:33:34,245 It's rising. 723 00:33:35,055 --> 00:33:39,225 Now the, the problem is, as we know in democracies. 724 00:33:39,735 --> 00:33:44,415 The loudest best finance interest groups often lead policy. 725 00:33:44,805 --> 00:33:49,755 And there is a very loud minority in Taiwan that does want independence, and 726 00:33:49,755 --> 00:33:52,035 they have the pool and the ruling DPP. 727 00:33:52,620 --> 00:33:57,255 It, it, it's a fringe part of the ecosystem, but it's one that could 728 00:33:57,255 --> 00:34:01,395 at some point through machinations, like the one you saw right now with 729 00:34:01,395 --> 00:34:05,685 a recall of democratically elected legislators caused something to happen. 730 00:34:05,685 --> 00:34:07,485 And that's obviously how World War I started. 731 00:34:07,785 --> 00:34:10,605 You know, it's not like the Serbian government, assassinated France 732 00:34:10,605 --> 00:34:16,245 Ferdinand, but various terrorist groups funded in nine in the early 733 00:34:16,245 --> 00:34:20,985 20th century by members of the Serbian Military and Intelligence Services. 734 00:34:21,045 --> 00:34:25,905 Absolutely supported those guys, uh, ADA, Bosnia and, and Black Hand 735 00:34:25,905 --> 00:34:27,825 and all that stuff in, in Bosnia. 736 00:34:27,825 --> 00:34:29,775 So like this is the issue. 737 00:34:29,955 --> 00:34:32,295 Uh, Taiwan is a complicated place. 738 00:34:32,505 --> 00:34:35,775 The median Taiwanese, you're correct, does not wanna confrontation with China. 739 00:34:35,775 --> 00:34:36,405 Why would you? 740 00:34:36,915 --> 00:34:38,655 That's idiotic and insane. 741 00:34:40,290 --> 00:34:43,290 But there are always French groups that, that might do that. 742 00:34:43,290 --> 00:34:47,100 And that's why I think closer monitoring of this Taiwanese politics 743 00:34:47,100 --> 00:34:48,360 is something that we all have to do. 744 00:34:48,540 --> 00:34:49,380 But yes, you are right. 745 00:34:49,380 --> 00:34:51,540 Also, Trump administration seems to have changed. 746 00:34:52,949 --> 00:34:54,870 It's, it's it's view as well. 747 00:34:55,020 --> 00:34:57,330 Jacob Shapiro: But by the way, well, it's been all over the place though. 748 00:34:57,330 --> 00:34:59,940 Remember like when Trump was the first time he was elected, do you 749 00:34:59,940 --> 00:35:01,020 remember the first thing he did? 750 00:35:01,020 --> 00:35:02,700 He called Taiwan's president. 751 00:35:02,760 --> 00:35:06,150 I remember at the time being like, oh my God, a, a precedent has been broken. 752 00:35:06,150 --> 00:35:08,310 And now it's like how many precedents since then have been broken. 753 00:35:08,310 --> 00:35:09,540 But like there was all that. 754 00:35:09,540 --> 00:35:12,660 But then you, you fast forward now it seems like only Bridge Kolby cares 755 00:35:12,660 --> 00:35:16,320 about this in DOD like everybody else, whether it's Ruby talking up one China 756 00:35:16,410 --> 00:35:21,540 or Trump pressuring the Taiwanese to give trade concessions to the United States. 757 00:35:21,750 --> 00:35:22,680 Um, oh yeah. 758 00:35:22,680 --> 00:35:26,370 And just to say like, uh, sort of what, uh, another thing about this is, you 759 00:35:26,370 --> 00:35:27,900 know, you brought up Russia and Ukraine. 760 00:35:28,140 --> 00:35:29,550 The thing is China's not Russia. 761 00:35:29,955 --> 00:35:31,305 Taiwan is not Ukraine. 762 00:35:31,605 --> 00:35:36,165 So I don't think China wants to invade or like thinks it can invade Taiwan and win. 763 00:35:36,165 --> 00:35:38,984 I think it's gonna take the Hong Kong approach, which is isolate it, make 764 00:35:38,984 --> 00:35:42,375 sure nobody recognizes it, make sure nobody has an incentive to defend it. 765 00:35:42,674 --> 00:35:46,305 And then when Margaret Thatcher comes and says, we wanna renew the lease 99 766 00:35:46,305 --> 00:35:50,625 years, you tell her, okay, but we're gonna cut off the oil, uh, excuse me, 767 00:35:50,625 --> 00:35:54,705 the electricity and the water, uh, and like we're just gonna blockade it. 768 00:35:54,705 --> 00:35:55,694 Is that really what you want? 769 00:35:55,845 --> 00:35:58,785 And then she has to say, okay, I'll go like pool with the Falklands. 770 00:35:58,785 --> 00:36:00,435 'cause I obviously can't mess around with this. 771 00:36:00,435 --> 00:36:04,095 So like when you see that like Beijing is isolating Taiwan and also brain 772 00:36:04,095 --> 00:36:07,995 draining them, just like throwing Yuan and all the Taiwanese semi engineers 773 00:36:07,995 --> 00:36:10,964 like, come to Shanghai, have the penthouse, do whatever you want. 774 00:36:10,964 --> 00:36:13,125 And they're coming like tho those people are listening to that. 775 00:36:13,365 --> 00:36:15,015 And then there's Taiwan, which is not Ukraine. 776 00:36:15,015 --> 00:36:16,725 And this gets to your point, like Taiwan. 777 00:36:16,830 --> 00:36:19,590 I don't think it's gonna defend itself the way that Ukraine has 778 00:36:19,590 --> 00:36:20,910 defended itself against Russia. 779 00:36:21,000 --> 00:36:23,520 I'm, that might hurt some Taiwan's feelings and maybe I'm wrong about that. 780 00:36:23,520 --> 00:36:26,549 But my impression based on studying it is that they're not gonna defend 781 00:36:26,549 --> 00:36:27,630 themselves the way that Ukraine, 782 00:36:28,650 --> 00:36:29,250 Marko Papic: well, either way. 783 00:36:29,250 --> 00:36:31,710 I think that there is danger in being a chess board and I 784 00:36:31,710 --> 00:36:33,000 think they understand that. 785 00:36:33,000 --> 00:36:35,610 But to your, to the point on top Trump that you said, you know, 786 00:36:35,970 --> 00:36:40,529 ambiguity about Trump, I think that there is a lot of unfair criticism. 787 00:36:41,100 --> 00:36:46,230 For example, not letting president of Taiwan transit to the us There is a huge 788 00:36:46,230 --> 00:36:50,160 gulf between not wanting to provoke China 789 00:36:52,319 --> 00:36:53,759 and not wanting to defend Taiwan. 790 00:36:54,005 --> 00:36:59,880 There is some like happy medium in between, and I think one of the problems 791 00:36:59,880 --> 00:37:05,370 with the Biden administration was that it was so concerned with illustrating 792 00:37:05,400 --> 00:37:11,160 domestic strength through aggression in Ukraine and Taiwan, that it was 793 00:37:11,220 --> 00:37:13,230 leaning more towards provoking China. 794 00:37:13,755 --> 00:37:16,710 I think there's some basic level. 795 00:37:17,399 --> 00:37:23,549 Where the US can both guarantee Taiwan's, let's say sovereignty, if 796 00:37:23,549 --> 00:37:28,709 not independence, and without having to provoke, you know, like maybe you 797 00:37:28,709 --> 00:37:32,609 don't wanna send the Speaker of the House of Representatives to Taipei. 798 00:37:32,640 --> 00:37:34,169 Maybe that's like unnecessary. 799 00:37:34,379 --> 00:37:38,040 But you can sell weapons, which the US has been doing for decades, 800 00:37:38,069 --> 00:37:39,450 you know, and continue to do so. 801 00:37:40,049 --> 00:37:42,990 And through back channels tell China like, look, we are actually 802 00:37:42,990 --> 00:37:45,120 committed to defense of Taiwan. 803 00:37:45,120 --> 00:37:51,000 Like, but, but if, if you are angry by the fact that the Taiwanese president 804 00:37:51,000 --> 00:37:53,759 is gonna be transiting through the United States America, fine. 805 00:37:53,759 --> 00:37:58,470 He can take a flight through Zurich, great connections, best sandwiches at an airport 806 00:37:58,470 --> 00:38:00,450 anywhere in the world, so he'll be happy. 807 00:38:00,450 --> 00:38:02,220 You know, like there is a happy medium. 808 00:38:02,220 --> 00:38:05,609 And I think a little bit of, of the, uh, criticism of President 809 00:38:05,609 --> 00:38:07,319 Trump is like, he's not like, what? 810 00:38:07,319 --> 00:38:11,040 Like aggressive, provocative, like asshole enough, eh. 811 00:38:11,685 --> 00:38:12,375 I I don't buy that. 812 00:38:13,065 --> 00:38:13,425 Jacob Shapiro: No, I'm with you. 813 00:38:13,425 --> 00:38:16,305 I, I'm gonna ask you an impossible hypothetical, but why not? 814 00:38:16,305 --> 00:38:17,025 Because this is cousins. 815 00:38:17,265 --> 00:38:19,365 Let, let's say China invades Taiwan tomorrow. 816 00:38:19,365 --> 00:38:20,715 You think the US defends Taiwan? 817 00:38:21,825 --> 00:38:23,385 Marko Papic: Well, did the US defend Ukraine? 818 00:38:25,305 --> 00:38:27,255 Not at first, not at all. 819 00:38:27,315 --> 00:38:30,525 I mean, like, what is the level of defense? 820 00:38:30,885 --> 00:38:33,915 And I think, again, this is one of those things that's not a one or a zero. 821 00:38:34,155 --> 00:38:35,505 It's a zero to a 10. 822 00:38:35,955 --> 00:38:38,595 The United States of America is absolutely not gonna commit 823 00:38:38,595 --> 00:38:40,305 US troops to defend of Taiwan. 824 00:38:42,825 --> 00:38:43,276 Jacob Shapiro: So you don't think so? 825 00:38:43,276 --> 00:38:45,495 You don't think that we would send a ba, a carry battle group or anything else 826 00:38:45,495 --> 00:38:47,355 to protect Taiwan from an s assault? 827 00:38:47,715 --> 00:38:48,465 Marko Papic: Maybe send it. 828 00:38:48,465 --> 00:38:51,765 But I think that it would be exactly like the situation in Ukraine. 829 00:38:51,915 --> 00:38:58,635 Just absolute, uh, no holds barred technological transfer 830 00:38:58,635 --> 00:39:00,675 of very sophisticated weapons. 831 00:39:01,245 --> 00:39:02,985 Jacob Shapiro: Which, which was not what happened at first though. 832 00:39:02,985 --> 00:39:05,145 Like what happened first with Ukraine is that we withdrew 833 00:39:05,145 --> 00:39:06,465 our embassy staff to the west. 834 00:39:06,465 --> 00:39:08,715 We were like, okay, like everybody move out. 835 00:39:08,715 --> 00:39:09,195 Good luck. 836 00:39:09,195 --> 00:39:09,945 Sorry guys. 837 00:39:09,945 --> 00:39:13,035 And then after the Ukrainians kicked them in the teeth and it was like, oh 838 00:39:13,035 --> 00:39:14,415 my God, the Russians are bogged down. 839 00:39:14,415 --> 00:39:16,545 Oh my God, the Russians are not as what we like, get them the 840 00:39:16,545 --> 00:39:17,715 missiles, get them everything. 841 00:39:17,715 --> 00:39:18,105 Let's go. 842 00:39:18,105 --> 00:39:20,685 But the first reaction was, sorry guys. 843 00:39:20,865 --> 00:39:22,065 Like we took, we warned you. 844 00:39:22,155 --> 00:39:23,055 Fuck around and find out. 845 00:39:24,135 --> 00:39:28,125 Marko Papic: Well, actually the first, uh, also, the first thing 846 00:39:28,125 --> 00:39:29,985 that the US did was pre-invasion. 847 00:39:30,495 --> 00:39:32,415 And this is where Donald Trump is, right? 848 00:39:32,835 --> 00:39:36,315 And nobody in the mainstream media wants to give him credit. 849 00:39:36,315 --> 00:39:38,145 He did give Ukraine travels. 850 00:39:38,925 --> 00:39:39,825 Jacob Shapiro: He did in the first term. 851 00:39:39,855 --> 00:39:40,035 Marko Papic: Yep. 852 00:39:40,095 --> 00:39:45,315 He was the first US president to give Ukraine offensive weapons. 853 00:39:46,755 --> 00:39:49,515 And now everybody says, oh, that's 'cause he was trying to buy them. 854 00:39:49,515 --> 00:39:51,165 So that, you know, like, okay, whatever. 855 00:39:51,165 --> 00:39:54,495 Like, sure, maybe fine, but that's a fact. 856 00:39:54,495 --> 00:39:57,465 So Ukraine was kind of ready for that initial assault 857 00:39:57,465 --> 00:39:58,875 because of American technology. 858 00:39:59,370 --> 00:40:04,350 But I agree with you, it was Ukrainians defending, in an amphibious assault 859 00:40:04,920 --> 00:40:09,510 technology will matter even more than in a mechanized Dan horn, right? 860 00:40:09,510 --> 00:40:10,950 Because you gotta cross a sea. 861 00:40:11,340 --> 00:40:16,950 So area denial weapons are gonna be even more, uh, important. 862 00:40:17,040 --> 00:40:21,090 So no, I don't think the US is going to use, its its own soldiers to 863 00:40:21,090 --> 00:40:25,020 defend Taiwan, but the technological transfer of sophisticated weapons 864 00:40:25,020 --> 00:40:28,650 will have an even bigger, more positive effect than it did in Ukraine 865 00:40:29,340 --> 00:40:31,860 Jacob Shapiro: if the Taiwanese are willing to use them and take the casualty. 866 00:40:32,070 --> 00:40:33,085 But I don't think it's for sure. 867 00:40:33,115 --> 00:40:33,405 Yeah. 868 00:40:33,405 --> 00:40:33,605 Yeah. 869 00:40:33,685 --> 00:40:34,740 I don't think it's, yeah, I mean that's 870 00:40:34,740 --> 00:40:35,400 Marko Papic: the question, right? 871 00:40:35,400 --> 00:40:37,800 Like that's ultimately what will the Taiwanese do? 872 00:40:37,800 --> 00:40:39,720 And I guess we'll find out. 873 00:40:39,780 --> 00:40:40,590 But I don't know. 874 00:40:41,220 --> 00:40:44,460 You know, there's a lot of people who have been doubted. 875 00:40:44,610 --> 00:40:49,260 Uh, I would say that nine out of 10 of my clients thought Ukrainians 876 00:40:49,260 --> 00:40:50,910 were just gonna be incompetent. 877 00:40:51,660 --> 00:40:55,140 And like I had to remind them of history of Ukraine. 878 00:40:55,140 --> 00:40:57,870 This is a country that invented partisans. 879 00:40:58,859 --> 00:40:59,669 You know what I mean? 880 00:40:59,669 --> 00:41:02,160 Like I, and, and they were like, nah, they're corrupt 881 00:41:02,160 --> 00:41:03,480 and it's a sclerotic country. 882 00:41:03,480 --> 00:41:04,200 Everyone's old. 883 00:41:04,200 --> 00:41:05,609 I was like, eh, I don't think so. 884 00:41:05,609 --> 00:41:08,730 I think Ukraine is, are gonna fight viciously. 885 00:41:08,879 --> 00:41:09,990 This is Eastern Europe. 886 00:41:10,529 --> 00:41:11,669 We know how to fight wars. 887 00:41:11,669 --> 00:41:15,149 Like even if we lose them, they're not gonna lay down. 888 00:41:15,149 --> 00:41:18,990 And I think in Taiwan, you know, there's many, many examples I can 889 00:41:18,990 --> 00:41:23,009 use of people who were seen as unwilling to defend themselves. 890 00:41:23,129 --> 00:41:26,069 Like who actually then ended up defending themselves ly. 891 00:41:27,390 --> 00:41:28,950 So we just don't know all 892 00:41:28,950 --> 00:41:29,399 Jacob Shapiro: which reasons. 893 00:41:29,399 --> 00:41:30,600 I think China's not gonna do this. 894 00:41:30,629 --> 00:41:30,930 Okay. 895 00:41:30,930 --> 00:41:31,470 Third beer. 896 00:41:31,470 --> 00:41:33,839 This one will be a little bit shorter on the read 'cause it's already getting 897 00:41:33,839 --> 00:41:37,440 murky, but, so we started this morning with Donald Trump saying that there 898 00:41:37,440 --> 00:41:39,990 are going to be 25% tariffs on India. 899 00:41:40,350 --> 00:41:43,620 They've been negotiate, I think they've had what, five or six negotiating rounds. 900 00:41:43,919 --> 00:41:46,500 It seems like the United States has been holding up negotiations because 901 00:41:46,500 --> 00:41:48,990 they want access to Indian markets. 902 00:41:48,990 --> 00:41:51,629 In terms of US agriculture, which is a non-starter, I think 903 00:41:51,629 --> 00:41:52,859 probably for the Indian government. 904 00:41:53,310 --> 00:41:55,589 Uh, president Trump also said that there would be penalties on 905 00:41:55,589 --> 00:41:57,450 India for importing Russian oil. 906 00:41:58,065 --> 00:41:59,265 Classic Trump fashion. 907 00:41:59,265 --> 00:42:00,825 We don't know what the penalties are. 908 00:42:00,825 --> 00:42:03,915 He also came out later and said, ah, like, we're still talking. 909 00:42:03,915 --> 00:42:07,275 Maybe there's some wiggle room at the same pi at the same time, by the way, 910 00:42:07,275 --> 00:42:10,695 China got a 90 day extension for tariffs. 911 00:42:10,695 --> 00:42:13,395 So India, the largest democracy in the world. 912 00:42:13,395 --> 00:42:14,445 Howdy, Modi. 913 00:42:14,715 --> 00:42:17,625 You know, the, the Trump Modi bromance, all that is getting slapped on the 914 00:42:17,625 --> 00:42:21,615 wrist this after the Pakistan India fight, where Trump has been out there 915 00:42:21,615 --> 00:42:24,285 saying that he should get credit for the ceasefire because of tariffs, which 916 00:42:24,285 --> 00:42:25,995 has been pissing the Indians off too. 917 00:42:26,445 --> 00:42:32,175 Um, I, I, I bring it up because the reason that the British had a second 918 00:42:32,175 --> 00:42:35,535 lease on their empire was because they discovered and conquered India, 919 00:42:35,595 --> 00:42:39,585 basically like the British Empire probably collapses if they don't integrate India 920 00:42:39,585 --> 00:42:43,545 into the empire, um, in the mid 19th century and allows them to carry on to 921 00:42:43,545 --> 00:42:45,555 World War I and probably far beyond. 922 00:42:45,555 --> 00:42:47,895 If you're the United States and you're thinking about the world and the 923 00:42:47,895 --> 00:42:51,135 multipolar world and all the levers that you've pulled in the last couple 924 00:42:51,135 --> 00:42:54,915 of years, and administrations of both parties, you probably want India on your. 925 00:42:55,890 --> 00:42:58,410 It just feels like the Trump administration is going out 926 00:42:58,410 --> 00:43:00,660 of its way to piss India off. 927 00:43:00,720 --> 00:43:02,700 I'm not sure that India was ever up for grabs. 928 00:43:02,760 --> 00:43:04,680 They're famously non-aligned. 929 00:43:04,680 --> 00:43:05,850 They wanna do their own thing. 930 00:43:05,850 --> 00:43:10,290 They're very, um, powerful is the wrong word, but I mean that many people that 931 00:43:10,290 --> 00:43:13,860 size market the potential, like they, they have a weight all of their own. 932 00:43:14,370 --> 00:43:19,110 Um, but man, if, if Trump just isn't like kicking a potential ally or 933 00:43:19,110 --> 00:43:21,900 at least a balancer against some of these other powers in the teeth and 934 00:43:21,900 --> 00:43:25,710 for what, like what, what is the United States getting out of this? 935 00:43:25,710 --> 00:43:29,280 I know like, you know, you get the trade deal, the reality TV show thing, 936 00:43:29,280 --> 00:43:32,640 I guess to show that you're tough, but why you would pick on India this way? 937 00:43:32,640 --> 00:43:35,945 I mean, we could ask this question about Japan and Canada too, but I'm, 938 00:43:35,970 --> 00:43:39,630 I'm really surprised that, um, the Trump administration is treating India like this 939 00:43:39,630 --> 00:43:45,780 and I think they are creating like yet another center of power in this multipolar 940 00:43:45,780 --> 00:43:49,350 world that is very, very quickly gonna be skeptical of the United States going 941 00:43:49,350 --> 00:43:50,640 forward and look to balance against it. 942 00:43:52,770 --> 00:43:56,310 Marko Papic: I mean, I think, uh, this, uh, maybe I don't really have 943 00:43:56,310 --> 00:44:05,279 as much to to comment on this, but, uh, I think that I do worry that maybe 944 00:44:05,279 --> 00:44:10,020 the markets and media and journalists and really everybody is not taking 945 00:44:10,020 --> 00:44:12,209 Trump's threats like seriously enough. 946 00:44:14,129 --> 00:44:15,450 You know, on the Russia thing, 947 00:44:18,990 --> 00:44:23,700 the secondary sanctions, I think that we may not be spending enough time on that. 948 00:44:23,700 --> 00:44:27,000 And you know, obviously India could be a casualty of those, uh, as well 949 00:44:27,000 --> 00:44:28,740 as the China US trade negotiations. 950 00:44:28,740 --> 00:44:30,180 Now, those are two parallel things. 951 00:44:30,810 --> 00:44:33,419 I think Beijing can chew gum and walk in the same time. 952 00:44:33,419 --> 00:44:41,040 They can separate American view towards Russia and um, um, you know, its 953 00:44:41,069 --> 00:44:43,979 negotiations with the US separately. 954 00:44:44,399 --> 00:44:48,359 But I do think we may be coming to a head, and this goes back to what 955 00:44:48,359 --> 00:44:49,919 we talked about in our last episode. 956 00:44:51,030 --> 00:44:54,900 Which is that I think that Trump, you know, hell had no, no fury, 957 00:44:55,260 --> 00:44:56,850 like President Trump's scorned, 958 00:44:59,370 --> 00:44:59,700 right? 959 00:44:59,700 --> 00:45:06,750 Like to re redo that old adage, I do think that he is seriously angry that 960 00:45:06,840 --> 00:45:10,735 Trump, that Putin has not moved at all towards some sort of ceasefire. 961 00:45:10,735 --> 00:45:14,220 And so, like chi uh, India, US relationship could suffer 962 00:45:14,250 --> 00:45:15,210 further because of that. 963 00:45:16,170 --> 00:45:17,070 Jacob Shapiro: It's a, it's a show. 964 00:45:17,070 --> 00:45:18,030 It's so shortsighted. 965 00:45:18,030 --> 00:45:20,460 Like the thing, like we talked about the US and the eu. 966 00:45:21,240 --> 00:45:24,090 The things that Trump has done and how it's gonna affect the future 967 00:45:24,090 --> 00:45:28,140 of US India relations, US Brazil relations, US Japan relations. 968 00:45:28,140 --> 00:45:30,885 I mean, you can see sentiment turning against the United 969 00:45:30,885 --> 00:45:31,800 States in these countries. 970 00:45:32,070 --> 00:45:35,730 And maybe, you know, maybe, maybe it's ephemeral, maybe things turn around. 971 00:45:35,910 --> 00:45:38,220 But I think something has fundamentally shifted in these countries. 972 00:45:38,220 --> 00:45:40,230 I think these countries are looking at what the United States 973 00:45:40,230 --> 00:45:43,080 is doing and they're seeing if you're tough, it doesn't work. 974 00:45:43,080 --> 00:45:44,730 If you're friendly, it doesn't work. 975 00:45:44,730 --> 00:45:47,010 You're just gonna get screwed by the United States. 976 00:45:47,010 --> 00:45:48,840 So we're gonna have to find alternate options. 977 00:45:48,840 --> 00:45:51,420 Like I think that is the takeaway lesson for these countries. 978 00:45:51,420 --> 00:45:55,110 Maybe Trump has in his mind, oh, if I can get this thing, I can move Putin. 979 00:45:55,110 --> 00:45:57,840 But that goes back to the classic, okay, instinctually you might 980 00:45:57,840 --> 00:46:00,630 be right and maybe you get the thing that you're after right Now. 981 00:46:00,840 --> 00:46:04,530 Was it really worth it to piss off India for the next 20 years? 982 00:46:04,860 --> 00:46:08,100 'cause that's what you've done with the combo of the tariff Pakistan, India 983 00:46:08,100 --> 00:46:11,790 thing, and now this thing about the tariffs and the secondary sanctions. 984 00:46:11,940 --> 00:46:12,030 Mm-hmm. 985 00:46:12,690 --> 00:46:13,950 Not exactly a good trade. 986 00:46:14,580 --> 00:46:16,140 We'd have to think of the BA equivalent. 987 00:46:16,380 --> 00:46:18,990 Like maybe you're, you're trading for, uh. 988 00:46:19,125 --> 00:46:20,115 I dunno. 989 00:46:20,175 --> 00:46:21,825 Hired gun for just the end of the year. 990 00:46:21,825 --> 00:46:24,675 I, there's not really many good examples of that in the NBA works 991 00:46:24,795 --> 00:46:25,695 where it actually works out. 992 00:46:27,255 --> 00:46:30,015 Marko Papic: So you're saying India is kd 993 00:46:33,375 --> 00:46:36,015 Jacob Shapiro: No, I, uh, you'd have to think of a, of a deadline deal. 994 00:46:36,015 --> 00:46:36,225 Right? 995 00:46:36,225 --> 00:46:38,535 Like somebody that is acquired for just a couple of, maybe like 996 00:46:38,535 --> 00:46:40,605 a Kauai Leonard in this case. 997 00:46:40,755 --> 00:46:41,145 Marko Papic: Mm. You know? 998 00:46:41,505 --> 00:46:43,365 Jacob Shapiro: Well, that did lead to the championship though. 999 00:46:43,845 --> 00:46:47,475 It did lead to the championship and then, and then afterwards it led to 1000 00:46:47,475 --> 00:46:51,045 nothing and then it led to paying yak perle $120 million for three to four. 1001 00:46:53,235 --> 00:46:55,335 Marko Papic: So Trump is Messiah Jerry? 1002 00:46:56,355 --> 00:46:56,985 Jacob Shapiro: Uh, yeah. 1003 00:46:57,045 --> 00:47:00,255 That's a nice, uh, cross-cultural interesting comparison. 1004 00:47:00,255 --> 00:47:00,435 Yeah. 1005 00:47:00,945 --> 00:47:01,215 Marko Papic: All right. 1006 00:47:01,215 --> 00:47:03,135 Let's, I'll have to sit on that. 1007 00:47:03,735 --> 00:47:03,885 Yeah. 1008 00:47:03,915 --> 00:47:04,695 Alright, well 1009 00:47:05,085 --> 00:47:05,595 Jacob Shapiro: number four. 1010 00:47:05,600 --> 00:47:06,440 You, you number four. 1011 00:47:06,440 --> 00:47:08,805 This is, you can actually tell this is a six pack because we're getting less 1012 00:47:08,805 --> 00:47:11,535 thoughtful as, as we go down as it would be if we were actually training. 1013 00:47:12,165 --> 00:47:12,525 Marko Papic: Yes. 1014 00:47:12,885 --> 00:47:18,765 Um, I think, uh, my next, uh, actual, uh, subject here is, um. 1015 00:47:19,815 --> 00:47:23,775 I would like our listeners to spend an hour of their time listening 1016 00:47:23,805 --> 00:47:30,165 to winning the AI race President Trump on the AI action plan. 1017 00:47:30,795 --> 00:47:35,775 It's one hour, it's actually featured on the All In Podcast. 1018 00:47:36,555 --> 00:47:41,895 Um, and, uh, it's President Trump just riffing for an hour on why 1019 00:47:42,195 --> 00:47:47,415 he actually, what's his vision of how to compete with China and it's 1020 00:47:47,475 --> 00:47:51,975 diametrically different from Jake Sullivan slash Joe Biden's vision. 1021 00:47:52,725 --> 00:47:56,325 And so, um, I don't know to what extent our listeners are following this, but 1022 00:47:56,325 --> 00:48:00,195 effectively the Trump administration has decided to cancel some of the 1023 00:48:00,195 --> 00:48:02,475 Biden administration restrictions. 1024 00:48:03,105 --> 00:48:07,635 This has allowed Nvidia to sell some of its advanced chips semiconductors 1025 00:48:07,695 --> 00:48:12,285 to China, which is part of the reason why Nvidia stock is soaring. 1026 00:48:12,615 --> 00:48:16,245 Uh, I mean, there's many other reasons of course, and, uh, it's 1027 00:48:16,245 --> 00:48:18,165 very interesting because this. 1028 00:48:18,720 --> 00:48:20,009 It's 57 minutes. 1029 00:48:20,129 --> 00:48:23,279 If you can, Jacob, just put it in the, in our, we roll. 1030 00:48:23,279 --> 00:48:23,339 Yeah, 1031 00:48:23,504 --> 00:48:23,665 Jacob Shapiro: yeah. 1032 00:48:23,850 --> 00:48:24,509 Marko Papic: On our notes. 1033 00:48:24,750 --> 00:48:28,649 It's worth listening because Trump effectively says, I mean, aside from 1034 00:48:28,649 --> 00:48:34,049 saying that Joe Biden was wrong 75 times, you know, he basically, he 1035 00:48:34,049 --> 00:48:38,939 basically articulates a different strategy, which is that instead of, uh, 1036 00:48:39,540 --> 00:48:44,580 putting these high fences on American technology, president Trump will ensure 1037 00:48:44,669 --> 00:48:48,390 that American technology companies make money off of China and then reinvest 1038 00:48:48,390 --> 00:48:51,689 that money into the r and d so that they can continue to be a leading edge. 1039 00:48:52,439 --> 00:48:55,379 Those are two diametrically different ways of thinking about 1040 00:48:55,379 --> 00:48:56,865 competition in the 21st century. 1041 00:48:57,725 --> 00:49:02,520 And I gotta say, I 800% agree with Trump. 1042 00:49:04,319 --> 00:49:10,500 I think that the Jake Sullivan view of how to compete with China is abjectly wrong. 1043 00:49:12,420 --> 00:49:16,890 That it would ultimately ensure that China innovated and created a 1044 00:49:16,890 --> 00:49:21,120 completely separate architecture on the AI front on many other fronts. 1045 00:49:21,630 --> 00:49:27,750 And subsequent to that, it would ensure that many countries in the world will 1046 00:49:27,750 --> 00:49:32,190 adopt that infrastructure, infrastructure that China provides, whether that's 1047 00:49:32,190 --> 00:49:38,040 Alibaba's ai cloud infrastructure, whether it's China's EV infrastructure, 1048 00:49:38,040 --> 00:49:39,690 whether it's payment plans, whatever. 1049 00:49:39,690 --> 00:49:46,320 It's, uh, there is a sensible way to protect cutting edge technology, for sure. 1050 00:49:46,320 --> 00:49:51,600 Like you don't want to sell China your hypersonic cruise missiles, but like 1051 00:49:51,600 --> 00:50:00,390 selling China, like letting China gorge itself on a 10-year-old plane or a 1052 00:50:00,390 --> 00:50:06,330 5-year-old semiconductor is not going to change anything, particularly because many 1053 00:50:06,330 --> 00:50:09,030 of your own allies in a multipolar world. 1054 00:50:09,585 --> 00:50:12,105 Are not going to abide bio restrictions. 1055 00:50:12,105 --> 00:50:15,105 And that was one of the problems that the Biden administration found out. 1056 00:50:15,525 --> 00:50:19,425 It wasn't widely reported, but there were certain pretty good journalistic 1057 00:50:19,425 --> 00:50:25,485 efforts to un to reveal that companies like A SML Tokyo Electron would 1058 00:50:25,485 --> 00:50:28,215 like say, sure, great, we'll comply. 1059 00:50:28,215 --> 00:50:31,215 And then like 12 months later, like go, oh my God, where do 1060 00:50:31,215 --> 00:50:32,505 we get this pile of money? 1061 00:50:32,925 --> 00:50:33,315 You know? 1062 00:50:33,675 --> 00:50:39,885 And, and, and, and, and again because, not because they're evil, not because 1063 00:50:39,885 --> 00:50:41,565 they're proin or anti-American. 1064 00:50:41,835 --> 00:50:46,665 I mean, if you are the Netherlands and A SML is your champion, and 1065 00:50:46,665 --> 00:50:50,625 Americans come and tell you don't sell your equipment, your sophisticated 1066 00:50:50,625 --> 00:50:54,135 semiconductor manufacturing equipment to China, you're like, okay, so you 1067 00:50:54,135 --> 00:50:57,585 don't want me to sell this stuff to China, but you also want me to be part 1068 00:50:57,585 --> 00:51:03,555 of the anti-China Alliance by, you know, developing high tech, um, industrial 1069 00:51:04,365 --> 00:51:07,005 like innovation that helps the West win. 1070 00:51:07,005 --> 00:51:07,770 Like, well, I can't do both. 1071 00:51:09,645 --> 00:51:13,634 Because the foundation of geopolitical power is material wealth. 1072 00:51:13,875 --> 00:51:14,984 Let me say this again. 1073 00:51:15,225 --> 00:51:16,515 This is a realist view. 1074 00:51:16,754 --> 00:51:20,384 The foundation of geopolitical power is material wealth. 1075 00:51:20,415 --> 00:51:25,935 You need to skim from that surplus to invest in r and d in technology. 1076 00:51:26,205 --> 00:51:30,285 And the moment you stop losing sight of that, you know, uh, you lose. 1077 00:51:30,375 --> 00:51:33,194 And by the way, this is where this distinction between commercial 1078 00:51:33,194 --> 00:51:37,214 interests and geopolitical interests, national security interests blurs. 1079 00:51:37,694 --> 00:51:39,165 It actually is blurred. 1080 00:51:39,165 --> 00:51:40,995 It's very difficult to separate the two. 1081 00:51:41,354 --> 00:51:44,234 And so I actually think that this is a very good, uh, hour. 1082 00:51:44,234 --> 00:51:48,854 Of course, it's like full of trumpisms, you know, and he's like, I'm smart, Joe. 1083 00:51:48,854 --> 00:51:49,544 Biden's dumb. 1084 00:51:49,725 --> 00:51:50,564 You know, God bless. 1085 00:51:50,654 --> 00:51:52,845 Like, sure, knock yourself out. 1086 00:51:53,234 --> 00:51:58,634 But it's also an hour of, um, Trump's rhetoric that actually will anchor 1087 00:51:58,634 --> 00:52:00,285 both Democrats and Republicans. 1088 00:52:01,575 --> 00:52:05,355 This is something that there will be absolute bipartisan antagonism 1089 00:52:05,355 --> 00:52:08,714 towards this model, but this modern is rooted in history. 1090 00:52:09,165 --> 00:52:13,814 If you wanna find out how the United Kingdom fought its trade wars, how 1091 00:52:13,814 --> 00:52:19,004 United Kingdom became a hegemon and an empire, it was not by, uh, it was not 1092 00:52:19,004 --> 00:52:21,194 by cutting off trade with its rivals. 1093 00:52:21,194 --> 00:52:25,515 It was actually by making its rivals become addicted to its technology 1094 00:52:25,544 --> 00:52:27,345 and to its trade and to its capital. 1095 00:52:27,345 --> 00:52:31,694 And I think that President Trump has actually figured out how to fight, how 1096 00:52:31,694 --> 00:52:34,125 to fight rivalries in a multipolar world. 1097 00:52:34,515 --> 00:52:35,865 And nobody before him really has. 1098 00:52:37,635 --> 00:52:40,395 Jacob Shapiro: The problem with that argument is that Trump started this with 1099 00:52:40,395 --> 00:52:44,415 his crackdown on Huawei during his first term, and that China made the choice 1100 00:52:44,415 --> 00:52:47,835 to vertically integrate on these things because of his restrictions on Huawei. 1101 00:52:47,835 --> 00:52:50,475 So the Biden administration was trying to put a genie back in the 1102 00:52:50,475 --> 00:52:53,235 bottle from my point of view, and that was never actually going to work. 1103 00:52:53,715 --> 00:52:56,775 Um, and so now Trump is trying to reverse course when he actually did the damage. 1104 00:52:56,775 --> 00:53:00,495 And to me, he probably reversed course because the CEO of Nvidia was on the 1105 00:53:00,495 --> 00:53:04,485 stage with him at the event in the Gulf with all the investment and things like 1106 00:53:04,485 --> 00:53:08,295 that, and probably said, Hey, Donald Trump, like, uh, things are gonna go badly 1107 00:53:08,295 --> 00:53:09,735 if you don't lift these restrictions. 1108 00:53:09,735 --> 00:53:13,005 And maybe Trump had some cronies who were long Nvidia and they 1109 00:53:13,005 --> 00:53:14,865 wanted to see Nvidia stock go up. 1110 00:53:14,865 --> 00:53:18,405 And so he was able to do that and, and sort of enrich, uh, and, and enrich them. 1111 00:53:18,435 --> 00:53:20,385 That's, that's the much more cynical way of. 1112 00:53:21,050 --> 00:53:23,210 Looking at the approach because China's gonna do that anyway. 1113 00:53:23,420 --> 00:53:25,610 You brought up ass ML ASML is the really interesting one. 1114 00:53:25,610 --> 00:53:29,450 You might remember, um, A SML didn't say where the money's from. 1115 00:53:29,450 --> 00:53:31,790 Ass ML was like, uh, we're not gonna stop selling to China. 1116 00:53:31,910 --> 00:53:33,320 Thank you for, for asking. 1117 00:53:33,320 --> 00:53:35,000 No, but that's not something that we're going to do. 1118 00:53:35,330 --> 00:53:37,310 And when the Dutch government started giving them problems, you might 1119 00:53:37,310 --> 00:53:38,540 remember last year they were leaking. 1120 00:53:38,540 --> 00:53:40,040 We'll, maybe we'll move to France. 1121 00:53:40,220 --> 00:53:42,530 Maybe we're not gonna be in the Netherlands anymore. 1122 00:53:42,890 --> 00:53:45,560 Uh, and the Dutch government then started pushing back against the 1123 00:53:45,560 --> 00:53:48,050 United States along with the, with the Japanese government. 1124 00:53:48,050 --> 00:53:49,700 And that's the thing that the Chinese can't do. 1125 00:53:49,790 --> 00:53:51,440 Like the advanced lithography equipment. 1126 00:53:51,800 --> 00:53:51,890 Yeah. 1127 00:53:51,890 --> 00:53:54,080 That is the thing that they can't replicate quickly. 1128 00:53:54,140 --> 00:53:57,050 Everything else, they've basically been able to do it and they're making 1129 00:53:57,050 --> 00:53:58,730 advances when it comes to lithography. 1130 00:53:58,730 --> 00:54:02,060 But you are dependent on A SML now to hold back the dam and they're not 1131 00:54:02,060 --> 00:54:03,470 gonna be able to hold back the dam for, 1132 00:54:04,820 --> 00:54:07,910 Marko Papic: but your point reveals several points of vulnerabilities 1133 00:54:07,910 --> 00:54:09,440 to the Jake Sullivans of the world. 1134 00:54:10,610 --> 00:54:14,210 Number one, America doesn't control all innovation on the planet. 1135 00:54:15,320 --> 00:54:17,750 Many of that innovation is controlled by the allies. 1136 00:54:17,960 --> 00:54:18,680 Number two. 1137 00:54:19,485 --> 00:54:24,765 You do not have the carrots and the sticks with which to incite your 1138 00:54:24,765 --> 00:54:26,895 allies to follow your orders anymore. 1139 00:54:26,895 --> 00:54:32,265 Because number three, China has not revealed itself to be an evil 1140 00:54:32,265 --> 00:54:33,645 empire like the Soviet Union. 1141 00:54:34,485 --> 00:54:34,575 Jacob Shapiro: Mm-hmm. 1142 00:54:34,815 --> 00:54:36,975 Marko Papic: So everything will be solved. 1143 00:54:36,975 --> 00:54:41,355 If China invaded Taiwan, that would be perfect for the United States 1144 00:54:41,355 --> 00:54:44,085 of America because it could then go to the Netherlands and Japan and 1145 00:54:44,085 --> 00:54:47,985 France and say, aha, we told you so now we can, can we please now build 1146 00:54:47,985 --> 00:54:49,605 high fences around the technology? 1147 00:54:49,875 --> 00:54:52,905 But China hasn't done that because China's not, uh, what's the word? 1148 00:54:52,905 --> 00:54:55,785 Stupid like the Russians by the way. 1149 00:54:55,845 --> 00:54:56,745 Sorry, Russia. 1150 00:54:57,795 --> 00:55:01,155 But that's, that's why Vladimir Putin's not on our list of top 30. 1151 00:55:01,155 --> 00:55:01,425 Right. 1152 00:55:01,665 --> 00:55:03,255 But she kind of squirmed his way in. 1153 00:55:03,765 --> 00:55:07,245 What, what I'm getting at here is that, uh, I think the problem 1154 00:55:07,245 --> 00:55:11,115 with the Jake Solomon view is that it's just, it's unrealistic. 1155 00:55:11,265 --> 00:55:14,205 It's built on a Cold War infrastructure. 1156 00:55:14,895 --> 00:55:16,665 Being able to bully your allies. 1157 00:55:16,754 --> 00:55:19,484 And the reason your allies cannot be bullied is because you don't 1158 00:55:19,484 --> 00:55:20,685 have anything to offer them. 1159 00:55:22,694 --> 00:55:23,234 That's why. 1160 00:55:24,375 --> 00:55:24,795 And 1161 00:55:25,365 --> 00:55:28,605 Jacob Shapiro: well, and to put it slightly differently, it's also to do 1162 00:55:28,605 --> 00:55:32,115 that you need an accompanying push when it comes to industrial policy, which also 1163 00:55:32,115 --> 00:55:36,015 the Biden administration tried to do, but couldn't complete it, couldn't get, you 1164 00:55:36,015 --> 00:55:39,375 know, both houses on board with everything they wanted to do, even how big inflation 1165 00:55:39,375 --> 00:55:41,625 reduction act haha was supposed to be. 1166 00:55:41,955 --> 00:55:45,585 And so you didn't have this sort of space race, uh, mentality. 1167 00:55:45,944 --> 00:55:48,795 And then also, like, you're not competing with the Soviet Union anymore. 1168 00:55:48,884 --> 00:55:51,615 You're now treating with a country of over a billion people who's at the cutting 1169 00:55:51,615 --> 00:55:55,275 edge of many different industries and is ahead of you on many different industries. 1170 00:55:55,275 --> 00:55:59,115 You're not, you're not against, you know, some drunken guy in the factory 1171 00:55:59,115 --> 00:56:02,504 and the Soviet Union who's just making up the data so that he doesn't get shot. 1172 00:56:02,504 --> 00:56:05,504 Like China's a real dynamic economy in a way that the Soviet 1173 00:56:05,504 --> 00:56:07,575 Union was not and never could. 1174 00:56:08,025 --> 00:56:08,565 Marko Papic: So, yeah. 1175 00:56:08,565 --> 00:56:11,145 But, but, but that goes to another point that I would, I would wanna point 1176 00:56:11,145 --> 00:56:13,004 out, you know, uh, I'm of the view. 1177 00:56:13,770 --> 00:56:19,380 That the greatest, uh, sort of lever that the US can have in China 1178 00:56:20,190 --> 00:56:24,540 are those levers that empty China off its current account surplus. 1179 00:56:24,630 --> 00:56:29,100 And I know this is a little bit nerdy point, but what I mean is that when 1180 00:56:29,100 --> 00:56:35,640 China takes its hard earned money and takes it abroad for some reason, 1181 00:56:36,720 --> 00:56:38,370 that's a point of vulnerability. 1182 00:56:38,670 --> 00:56:38,940 Is it? 1183 00:56:39,000 --> 00:56:44,190 And if I was running the United States of America, I obviously am bathed in aloof 1184 00:56:44,340 --> 00:56:46,410 nihilism and couldn't care less who wins. 1185 00:56:46,410 --> 00:56:52,440 But if my interest was for the US to win, I would say, what is it that China buys? 1186 00:56:53,610 --> 00:56:57,060 Where does it take money and sends it abroad? 1187 00:56:57,600 --> 00:56:59,850 And there's really two things that it does. 1188 00:56:59,940 --> 00:57:00,420 Well, three. 1189 00:57:00,420 --> 00:57:01,200 One is oil. 1190 00:57:02,190 --> 00:57:04,440 Okay, well, he buys most of that from the Middle East and Russia. 1191 00:57:04,440 --> 00:57:05,759 So fine, let's leave that aside. 1192 00:57:05,759 --> 00:57:07,799 Can't really play that game. 1193 00:57:09,509 --> 00:57:10,259 The other two. 1194 00:57:11,235 --> 00:57:12,375 Are semiconductors. 1195 00:57:12,375 --> 00:57:14,055 So chips and tourism. 1196 00:57:14,745 --> 00:57:15,045 Yeah. 1197 00:57:15,375 --> 00:57:19,425 Yes, tourism sounds weird, but pre COVID. 1198 00:57:19,725 --> 00:57:25,335 Pre COVID tourism was actually the number one source of Chinese 1199 00:57:25,785 --> 00:57:30,225 capital outflows because tourism is effectively counted as an import. 1200 00:57:31,515 --> 00:57:34,245 You know, you're taking domestic currency and you're buying something abroad. 1201 00:57:34,695 --> 00:57:37,005 So if I was running to United States of America, the two things 1202 00:57:37,005 --> 00:57:39,705 I would've done is exactly what Donald Trump just did on the video. 1203 00:57:41,445 --> 00:57:43,515 I would say sell everything. 1204 00:57:43,935 --> 00:57:46,425 Make them grow addicted to these chips. 1205 00:57:47,325 --> 00:57:52,635 You want China to innovate as much as you can in ai, but you want that innovation 1206 00:57:52,635 --> 00:57:54,585 to rest on American infrastructure. 1207 00:57:54,855 --> 00:58:00,225 Oh, you want to invade Taiwan, yo normal chips, and you don't 1208 00:58:00,225 --> 00:58:01,425 have domestic production. 1209 00:58:01,455 --> 00:58:03,045 'cause it was so easy to buy Nvidia. 1210 00:58:03,405 --> 00:58:04,455 It's a sword of les. 1211 00:58:05,565 --> 00:58:09,285 The second thing I would've done is I would've gone in and said, no more visas. 1212 00:58:10,049 --> 00:58:14,640 For Chinese tourists, not because I don't issue them, but because 1213 00:58:14,640 --> 00:58:17,790 I say Chinese tourists can come to America without a visa. 1214 00:58:18,270 --> 00:58:18,960 Let's go. 1215 00:58:20,340 --> 00:58:23,880 And I would, I would like add airline flights to China like 1216 00:58:23,910 --> 00:58:25,980 50 a day from every major city. 1217 00:58:25,980 --> 00:58:26,850 Let's go. 1218 00:58:27,270 --> 00:58:31,140 Those are the, that's actually nuanced, second and third order 1219 00:58:31,140 --> 00:58:35,100 thinking, and I think that Joe Biden and Jake Sullivan had absolutely no 1220 00:58:35,100 --> 00:58:40,560 creativity and no domestic political backbone to do anything of that sort. 1221 00:58:40,590 --> 00:58:46,230 So they kept fighting with this first order, medieval Cold War mentality of 1222 00:58:46,259 --> 00:58:48,299 like, oh, let's put up restrictions. 1223 00:58:48,600 --> 00:58:48,779 Yeah. 1224 00:58:48,779 --> 00:58:52,410 You know what happens in five to 10 years, China has its own AI infrastructure, 1225 00:58:52,410 --> 00:58:57,870 doesn't need you and can easily withstand any kind of a blockade you impose on 1226 00:58:57,870 --> 00:59:01,049 it, whether it's a capital blockade, whether it's a high tech blockade. 1227 00:59:01,200 --> 00:59:01,500 So. 1228 00:59:02,265 --> 00:59:02,714 Jacob Shapiro: Good job. 1229 00:59:02,745 --> 00:59:04,665 Yeah, no, I, I, I agree with you. 1230 00:59:04,665 --> 00:59:08,055 I just, I think that would, I think that's true of every single presidential 1231 00:59:08,055 --> 00:59:11,595 administration going back to Truman and Trump started it, like Trump 1232 00:59:11,595 --> 00:59:14,714 started it with Huawei, like he was the one that started this thing going. 1233 00:59:14,714 --> 00:59:19,125 So absolutely pile on the shame for, uh, Sullivan and Biden being small 1234 00:59:19,125 --> 00:59:22,935 c conservative when it came to this and thinking in a very, very old way. 1235 00:59:23,325 --> 00:59:25,140 Uh, but I, I really, yeah, yeah. 1236 00:59:25,145 --> 00:59:27,075 It's a stretch for me to, it, it's a stretch for me that 1237 00:59:27,075 --> 00:59:28,995 Donald Trump is sitting there thinking how you're thinking. 1238 00:59:28,995 --> 00:59:29,625 Me like, aha. 1239 00:59:29,625 --> 00:59:30,315 I have the sort of dam. 1240 00:59:30,585 --> 00:59:34,185 I'm pretty sure he is just like, I got some Nvidia stock with that, uh, proceeds 1241 00:59:34,185 --> 00:59:35,895 from the Trump coin sales that I did. 1242 00:59:36,075 --> 00:59:37,785 Let's go, let's go to the moon. 1243 00:59:37,845 --> 00:59:40,185 That's the kind of moon, moon project I want. 1244 00:59:40,185 --> 00:59:40,455 You know, 1245 00:59:41,535 --> 00:59:42,975 Marko Papic: look, we don't, we don't know, but you know, 1246 00:59:42,975 --> 00:59:44,384 like we can be open-minded. 1247 00:59:44,384 --> 00:59:47,805 That man changed his mind, you know, maybe, yes. 1248 00:59:48,254 --> 00:59:52,154 You know, maybe, maybe people around Trump finally read some cogent research 1249 00:59:52,154 --> 00:59:57,795 that wasn't just parroting the DC like lobbyists and actually convinced Trump 1250 00:59:57,795 --> 00:59:59,504 of an alternative way to fight this. 1251 00:59:59,504 --> 01:00:00,674 By the way, if you want to know. 1252 01:00:01,035 --> 01:00:06,015 How this actually turned out in the 19th century read history about the Opium wars. 1253 01:00:06,315 --> 01:00:07,965 That's exactly what I'm saying. 1254 01:00:08,385 --> 01:00:10,875 The United Kingdom did not stop trade with China. 1255 01:00:11,325 --> 01:00:12,885 It sold them heroin. 1256 01:00:13,875 --> 01:00:17,985 So when I talk about getting China addicted to American AI infrastructure, 1257 01:00:17,985 --> 01:00:19,485 the British were like, no, no, no, no. 1258 01:00:19,695 --> 01:00:22,545 We'll just make them addicted to heroin. 1259 01:00:22,875 --> 01:00:23,025 Yeah. 1260 01:00:23,280 --> 01:00:23,660 And now, 1261 01:00:24,075 --> 01:00:26,055 Jacob Shapiro: and now China will make us addicted to Fentanyl. 1262 01:00:26,085 --> 01:00:26,295 Right. 1263 01:00:26,295 --> 01:00:29,145 Like that's the, the Opium War has come around, you know? 1264 01:00:29,895 --> 01:00:30,225 Marko Papic: That's right. 1265 01:00:30,255 --> 01:00:30,525 Okay. 1266 01:00:30,525 --> 01:00:32,685 So your, your turn for, uh, the fifth beer. 1267 01:00:33,375 --> 01:00:33,795 Jacob Shapiro: Alright. 1268 01:00:33,825 --> 01:00:37,575 I mean, we should talk about Thailand, Thailand, and Cambodia, but there's 1269 01:00:37,575 --> 01:00:38,535 nothing really to talk about. 1270 01:00:38,535 --> 01:00:39,180 They had a border spat. 1271 01:00:39,750 --> 01:00:40,770 There's already a cease fire. 1272 01:00:40,770 --> 01:00:42,360 Malaysia sort of helped weigh in. 1273 01:00:42,870 --> 01:00:45,630 Um, and I there there's a broader point there about how in multipole 1274 01:00:45,630 --> 01:00:47,760 in a multipolar world, we're gonna have these brush fires, 1275 01:00:47,760 --> 01:00:48,750 but they're gonna be contained. 1276 01:00:48,780 --> 01:00:50,010 So I'll say that really fast. 1277 01:00:50,010 --> 01:00:52,860 And I'll also just say that there was a new poll out about 1278 01:00:52,860 --> 01:00:53,910 Trump's approval ratings. 1279 01:00:54,360 --> 01:00:55,170 Um, it's down. 1280 01:00:55,170 --> 01:00:55,740 Oh yeah. 1281 01:00:55,800 --> 01:00:59,490 He's down from the beginning of July from to a new low in his administration, 1282 01:00:59,970 --> 01:01:07,680 uh, from 41% to drum roll, 40%, which is also within the margin of error. 1283 01:01:07,800 --> 01:01:11,100 So Trump continues to be the best analyst about his own charisma out there. 1284 01:01:11,340 --> 01:01:15,750 He could shoot someone on Fifth Avenue and no one would give a shit. 1285 01:01:15,750 --> 01:01:16,410 We've had him. 1286 01:01:16,500 --> 01:01:20,670 How long has it been of Jeffrey Epstein and if we got one percentage point that 1287 01:01:20,670 --> 01:01:24,480 is still within the margin of error on a poll for how people are approving of 1288 01:01:24,480 --> 01:01:25,650 Donald Trump, do they approve of him? 1289 01:01:25,650 --> 01:01:25,860 No. 1290 01:01:25,860 --> 01:01:29,190 His approval ratings are 40%, but they're down from 41%. 1291 01:01:29,955 --> 01:01:32,685 And as long as the economy is fine, he's probably gonna 1292 01:01:32,685 --> 01:01:33,615 be sitting there doing fine. 1293 01:01:33,615 --> 01:01:36,585 And maybe he has powers of charisma that will allow him to boot, uh, to 1294 01:01:36,585 --> 01:01:38,625 weather, uh, a turbulent economy as well. 1295 01:01:38,625 --> 01:01:40,575 But those are, I, I just stole two, two. 1296 01:01:40,575 --> 01:01:43,305 I had, I was a little mini beer flag that I, I snuck in. 1297 01:01:43,545 --> 01:01:43,879 See what I mean? 1298 01:01:43,940 --> 01:01:44,160 Uh, 1299 01:01:44,355 --> 01:01:48,975 Marko Papic: what you did there, what you did there is you, uh, I think 1300 01:01:48,975 --> 01:01:50,920 that was a shotgun beer with shotgun. 1301 01:01:50,940 --> 01:01:51,319 Oh, yeah. 1302 01:01:51,319 --> 01:01:51,480 Yeah. 1303 01:01:51,640 --> 01:01:52,000 Jacob Shapiro: A shotgun. 1304 01:01:52,305 --> 01:01:52,634 There you go. 1305 01:01:52,634 --> 01:01:55,995 Marko Papic: Just like, you know, uh, okay, cool. 1306 01:01:56,055 --> 01:01:58,185 Uh, what do I have to say about that? 1307 01:01:59,205 --> 01:02:00,855 Thailand, Cambodia. 1308 01:02:00,944 --> 01:02:01,305 Yeah. 1309 01:02:02,444 --> 01:02:02,955 That's it. 1310 01:02:03,254 --> 01:02:04,305 In a multipolar world. 1311 01:02:04,305 --> 01:02:05,535 Get ready for this kind of stuff. 1312 01:02:05,535 --> 01:02:06,795 And you know what I called it? 1313 01:02:06,795 --> 01:02:09,705 Uh, I wanted to write a really long analysis on this, and then I realized 1314 01:02:10,815 --> 01:02:11,625 I would write, no, wouldn't read 1315 01:02:11,625 --> 01:02:11,775 Jacob Shapiro: it. 1316 01:02:11,775 --> 01:02:12,555 I had the same fee. 1317 01:02:12,555 --> 01:02:15,464 I was, it was gonna be, I was supposed to write on substack about Thailand 1318 01:02:15,464 --> 01:02:18,194 and Cambodia, and then the US EU deal came out and I was like, all right, 1319 01:02:18,194 --> 01:02:19,125 I've got an hour and a half here. 1320 01:02:19,125 --> 01:02:19,214 Yes. 1321 01:02:19,875 --> 01:02:20,955 What am I gonna do? 1322 01:02:21,194 --> 01:02:24,075 No, I was really looking forward to understanding it, but nobody would care. 1323 01:02:24,254 --> 01:02:24,495 So, 1324 01:02:24,705 --> 01:02:27,795 Marko Papic: listen, listen, the way I, I wanted to write about rev schism. 1325 01:02:28,799 --> 01:02:29,400 Jacob Shapiro: I was, I was. 1326 01:02:29,549 --> 01:02:29,850 That's good. 1327 01:02:30,150 --> 01:02:31,500 Marko Papic: Rev Evangelism is back. 1328 01:02:31,500 --> 01:02:38,430 The problem is that like, you know, if there's a civil war in the Congo, if 1329 01:02:38,430 --> 01:02:41,069 Serbia takes over Republic Seka in Bosnia, 1330 01:02:42,240 --> 01:02:43,799 Jacob Shapiro: if Azerbaijan takes back in the Gord Kab, 1331 01:02:46,020 --> 01:02:49,650 Marko Papic: if a tree falls in a forest and nobody hears it, did it fall? 1332 01:02:49,710 --> 01:02:51,630 And, and like, I don't wanna only 1333 01:02:51,630 --> 01:02:52,470 Jacob Shapiro: if only if Israel does it. 1334 01:02:52,470 --> 01:02:53,700 If Israel does it, it fell. 1335 01:02:53,790 --> 01:02:54,540 But everything else, 1336 01:02:55,830 --> 01:02:56,549 Marko Papic: well, it depends. 1337 01:02:56,580 --> 01:02:56,819 Yeah. 1338 01:02:56,880 --> 01:02:57,150 Okay. 1339 01:02:57,150 --> 01:02:59,009 Well, I'm gonna let you do that one. 1340 01:02:59,040 --> 01:03:04,080 Um, look, what I'm, what I'm getting at here is, uh, I think that we should expect 1341 01:03:04,080 --> 01:03:08,730 a lot more of this, you know, because ba basically what's happening is the rules 1342 01:03:08,730 --> 01:03:10,890 and norms of behavior are breaking down. 1343 01:03:10,965 --> 01:03:14,775 Uh, to Trump's credit, though, he did threaten both 1344 01:03:14,775 --> 01:03:17,025 countries with like a trade war 1345 01:03:17,235 --> 01:03:18,165 Jacob Shapiro: who, with tariffs. 1346 01:03:18,195 --> 01:03:19,635 I'm sure that really resolved it. 1347 01:03:19,635 --> 01:03:22,695 He is just trying to, he is just trying to boost his Nobel Peace Prize application. 1348 01:03:22,695 --> 01:03:22,875 No, 1349 01:03:22,970 --> 01:03:23,130 Marko Papic: no. 1350 01:03:23,130 --> 01:03:26,145 I, I totally agree with you, Jacob, but I, I think at least, 1351 01:03:26,145 --> 01:03:27,885 like he didn't just ignore it. 1352 01:03:28,875 --> 01:03:30,855 Jacob Shapiro: I thought it was really interesting that he didn't ignore it. 1353 01:03:30,855 --> 01:03:33,735 If he doesn't care about these things and he is not gonna sit in judgment, why is he 1354 01:03:33,735 --> 01:03:35,325 out there threatening them with tariffs? 1355 01:03:35,445 --> 01:03:36,705 Maybe because he wants a Nobel Peace Prize. 1356 01:03:36,705 --> 01:03:36,975 I think, 1357 01:03:37,035 --> 01:03:37,815 Marko Papic: well, maybe, no. 1358 01:03:37,815 --> 01:03:40,515 Maybe the CCAs razor is he cares about human lives. 1359 01:03:40,515 --> 01:03:43,665 God, Jacob, why does everything have to be so cynical? 1360 01:03:44,055 --> 01:03:45,675 No, but listen, listen, I don't really care. 1361 01:03:45,885 --> 01:03:48,945 I, my point is just that it doesn't matter what America did. 1362 01:03:49,245 --> 01:03:53,625 The fact is this happened, you know, it's gonna keep happening in all sorts 1363 01:03:53,625 --> 01:03:57,495 of, so what you and I could maybe do as an idea, here's an idea that 1364 01:03:57,495 --> 01:04:00,255 comes out of this shotgun, uh, beer. 1365 01:04:01,545 --> 01:04:04,635 Maybe what we should do is a whole episode dedicated to 1366 01:04:04,635 --> 01:04:08,085 forgotten territorial disputes. 1367 01:04:09,730 --> 01:04:15,825 I tism, you know, like German and Poland over Esia. 1368 01:04:15,825 --> 01:04:21,855 Like, ooh, you know, like that would be a nice continental European just like fight. 1369 01:04:21,855 --> 01:04:24,435 And it doesn't have to be about wars breaking out. 1370 01:04:24,945 --> 01:04:30,645 Just why don't, why don't you and I spend like a month preparing a top 10 1371 01:04:30,645 --> 01:04:35,384 list of I dentist, ous, territorial disputes that come back to the surface? 1372 01:04:36,165 --> 01:04:36,555 Right? 1373 01:04:37,755 --> 01:04:37,905 Jacob Shapiro: Yeah. 1374 01:04:37,905 --> 01:04:38,475 I love this idea. 1375 01:04:38,685 --> 01:04:39,075 Sounds great. 1376 01:04:39,675 --> 01:04:40,005 Marko Papic: Cool. 1377 01:04:40,185 --> 01:04:43,215 Like, maybe we finally have that war in Latin America. 1378 01:04:43,275 --> 01:04:45,255 Like, what was it, the Triple Alliance? 1379 01:04:45,255 --> 01:04:45,735 Like 1380 01:04:46,125 --> 01:04:46,995 Jacob Shapiro: Yeah, that was a big one. 1381 01:04:47,355 --> 01:04:48,945 Marko Papic: Yeah, that was the biggest one. 1382 01:04:49,155 --> 01:04:50,145 You not the only one. 1383 01:04:50,655 --> 01:04:54,045 Since then, I, I believe they've created a new rule in, uh, south America 1384 01:04:54,045 --> 01:04:56,115 where they just settle everything through, uh, football matches. 1385 01:04:58,125 --> 01:04:58,395 Okay. 1386 01:04:58,755 --> 01:05:05,085 Uh, my last one, my last beer is, uh, well actually I am, uh, here still in the 1387 01:05:05,085 --> 01:05:06,480 British, uh, beautiful British Columbia. 1388 01:05:07,710 --> 01:05:14,100 So I was setting up this last, uh, part of our six pack and, uh, so I 1389 01:05:14,160 --> 01:05:20,100 went to dinner with, uh, this, uh, fantasy, uh, basketball league group 1390 01:05:20,100 --> 01:05:22,230 of guys that I've been honored to join. 1391 01:05:22,230 --> 01:05:24,180 It's a, it's a, actually a league that's been going on 1392 01:05:24,180 --> 01:05:25,859 for like 35 years, by the way. 1393 01:05:27,330 --> 01:05:28,589 It's an incredible story. 1394 01:05:28,589 --> 01:05:32,549 These guys have been together forever, uh, out here in Vancouver. 1395 01:05:32,609 --> 01:05:35,940 Uh, basically the commissioner, when he was a kid, his father had 1396 01:05:35,940 --> 01:05:38,069 to, uh, drive to point Roberts. 1397 01:05:38,339 --> 01:05:41,460 By the way, if you don't know what point Roberts is, it's a piece of the 1398 01:05:41,460 --> 01:05:44,880 United States of America that's like sticking off the coast of Vancouver. 1399 01:05:44,940 --> 01:05:47,819 It's completely isolated from the us. 1400 01:05:47,880 --> 01:05:50,160 It's like a little tiny territory of America that was 1401 01:05:50,160 --> 01:05:51,750 cut by the ignite parallel. 1402 01:05:53,505 --> 01:05:57,029 And so the dad would've to go to the, to this tiny little enclave 1403 01:05:57,029 --> 01:05:59,190 of America, uh, or Exclave. 1404 01:05:59,190 --> 01:06:02,460 I'm not, uh, it's an exclave to by USA today. 1405 01:06:02,460 --> 01:06:06,089 So they could by hand, Jacob by hand. 1406 01:06:08,250 --> 01:06:12,210 Cole told the statistics because this is pre internet, pre everything. 1407 01:06:12,210 --> 01:06:15,540 Like Microsoft Excel was like, you don't on a floppy desk. 1408 01:06:15,569 --> 01:06:16,470 I mean it was just insanity. 1409 01:06:16,470 --> 01:06:20,700 Anyways, I have the honor and privilege to be part of this, uh, fantasy league, and 1410 01:06:20,700 --> 01:06:24,180 I thought to ourselves, Jacob, we haven't really talked about basketball in a while. 1411 01:06:24,690 --> 01:06:26,370 Last night I was with these guys. 1412 01:06:26,370 --> 01:06:27,779 I keep getting my ass kicked. 1413 01:06:28,650 --> 01:06:29,730 I need some help. 1414 01:06:30,420 --> 01:06:33,360 And so what I was thinking is why don't we just spend the last five 1415 01:06:33,360 --> 01:06:36,630 minutes of our podcast, which we used to do often, and suddenly we've 1416 01:06:36,630 --> 01:06:37,740 stopped talking about basketball. 1417 01:06:37,740 --> 01:06:40,980 And I was like, let's start thinking who I should draft. 1418 01:06:41,009 --> 01:06:42,569 'cause these guys are absolute sharks. 1419 01:06:42,569 --> 01:06:45,569 I mean, they've been doing this back when they used pencil and paper and 1420 01:06:45,569 --> 01:06:48,240 erasers, man, like, I'm overmatched. 1421 01:06:48,240 --> 01:06:48,930 I need help. 1422 01:06:49,590 --> 01:06:55,799 I need some undervalued assets that are going to go for very little in 1423 01:06:55,799 --> 01:06:59,310 the auction, in the next fantasy draft that I should pick up. 1424 01:06:59,610 --> 01:07:01,259 So who are, who are the break? 1425 01:07:01,259 --> 01:07:03,210 And by the way, we don't have to have an answer right now. 1426 01:07:03,210 --> 01:07:05,340 I'm just like, this is a call for help. 1427 01:07:06,375 --> 01:07:09,945 If you're listening to this podcast, if you're a fan, you should 1428 01:07:09,945 --> 01:07:15,195 want one of the cousins to win this incredibly, incredibly, uh, 1429 01:07:15,225 --> 01:07:18,225 prestigious basketball fantasy league. 1430 01:07:18,225 --> 01:07:21,315 The JBL, that's what it's called, Johnny's Basketball League. 1431 01:07:24,165 --> 01:07:29,865 Uh, so help me help Marco win the league, who are the undervalued assets in 2020? 1432 01:07:29,865 --> 01:07:32,955 So either veterans who are gonna outperform expectations, maybe 1433 01:07:32,955 --> 01:07:35,445 Trey Young has a great season. 1434 01:07:35,475 --> 01:07:38,625 I know that's probably gonna give you brain aneurysm, Jacob. 1435 01:07:38,655 --> 01:07:45,015 'cause you are a, you're an Atlanta Hawks fan who's like, quit because, uh, because 1436 01:07:45,015 --> 01:07:46,605 he's such a terrible, terrible player. 1437 01:07:46,785 --> 01:07:50,175 Uh, but also like, uh, or someone who's gonna have a breakout season. 1438 01:07:50,475 --> 01:07:52,125 You know, those are my two categories. 1439 01:07:52,125 --> 01:07:55,845 All veterans who people have forgotten, but they have a, like a really 1440 01:07:56,055 --> 01:08:00,400 sneaky good season or young players who finally flower into an allstar. 1441 01:08:01,560 --> 01:08:03,720 Jacob Shapiro: Well, uh, before I answer that question, I just want you 1442 01:08:03,720 --> 01:08:05,730 to know breaking, breaking news here. 1443 01:08:05,820 --> 01:08:12,240 Um, on the podcast itself, Gilbert Arenas has been arrested for operating an illegal 1444 01:08:12,240 --> 01:08:14,310 gambling business at his Encino home. 1445 01:08:14,370 --> 01:08:18,180 And also Kamala Harris says she will not run for governor of California. 1446 01:08:18,180 --> 01:08:20,550 I'm shocked, Kamala, that you came to the conclusion 1447 01:08:20,550 --> 01:08:23,490 Marko Papic: she was gonna like absolutely win that one, you 1448 01:08:23,490 --> 01:08:25,950 know, but, but I, uh, yeah. 1449 01:08:25,950 --> 01:08:27,359 I mean, I think, you know what? 1450 01:08:27,359 --> 01:08:28,890 Gilbert Arenas and Harris. 1451 01:08:29,609 --> 01:08:31,170 Maybe good comps to one another. 1452 01:08:31,170 --> 01:08:35,490 By the way, Al also Gilbert dos, uh, the reason I know that story, 1453 01:08:35,490 --> 01:08:39,029 it's not breaking is because my JBL feed has informed me, 1454 01:08:39,029 --> 01:08:40,319 like, has already done it, John. 1455 01:08:40,710 --> 01:08:40,920 Yeah. 1456 01:08:40,920 --> 01:08:41,340 This is the 1457 01:08:41,340 --> 01:08:41,880 Jacob Shapiro: future. 1458 01:08:41,880 --> 01:08:42,600 This is the future. 1459 01:08:42,600 --> 01:08:44,520 Like, we're no longer gonna go to the internet for news. 1460 01:08:44,520 --> 01:08:47,550 We're gonna have personal intelligence networks that are gonna ping us that 1461 01:08:47,550 --> 01:08:50,279 something's up because you don't know whether it's AI slop or not. 1462 01:08:50,819 --> 01:08:56,130 Um, I guess my first the I'll, you know, by the way, it's not because I, I hate 1463 01:08:56,130 --> 01:08:57,750 Trey Young, that I abandoned the Hawks. 1464 01:08:57,779 --> 01:09:01,680 It's because the Atlanta Hawks traded the pick that was going to be Luca donates 1465 01:09:02,010 --> 01:09:05,850 so that they could draft Trey Young, and then Luca went to the Mavericks. 1466 01:09:06,210 --> 01:09:09,240 Uh, so it was, it was that move because I, you know, the Hawks were the team 1467 01:09:09,240 --> 01:09:12,990 that they drafted Marvin Williams instead of Chris Paul, they drafted 1468 01:09:12,990 --> 01:09:14,879 Sheldon Williams and Stella, Brandon Roy. 1469 01:09:15,090 --> 01:09:17,819 Then they, I just couldn't, I couldn't stomach it anymore. 1470 01:09:17,819 --> 01:09:20,819 And so I embraced the fucking pelicans, which really great timing on that. 1471 01:09:20,819 --> 01:09:20,970 Oh, cool. 1472 01:09:20,970 --> 01:09:21,540 Thanks Troy. 1473 01:09:21,720 --> 01:09:22,410 Joe Dumars. 1474 01:09:22,890 --> 01:09:23,220 Yeah, I mean, I was just 1475 01:09:23,220 --> 01:09:25,015 Marko Papic: gonna say, but Joe Dumars is not here. 1476 01:09:26,099 --> 01:09:26,460 Jacob Shapiro: I know. 1477 01:09:26,460 --> 01:09:29,700 So now I'm really now like the universe is like, well part of me is like, you know, 1478 01:09:29,700 --> 01:09:31,439 I lived in Austin for almost 10 years. 1479 01:09:31,439 --> 01:09:33,809 I have a couple Spurs jerseys, maybe I should just, but I 1480 01:09:33,809 --> 01:09:35,069 can't embrace the Spurs now. 1481 01:09:35,130 --> 01:09:36,000 'cause that's front running. 1482 01:09:36,000 --> 01:09:39,029 Like, oh, when Victor is on your team, I'm gonna embrace the Spurs. 1483 01:09:39,029 --> 01:09:39,359 Like really? 1484 01:09:39,479 --> 01:09:43,109 But anyway, all of this is to say, my deep experience now with the Pelican says that, 1485 01:09:43,109 --> 01:09:47,220 and maybe this is not dark horse enough for you, but uh, Trey Murphy third should 1486 01:09:47,220 --> 01:09:49,859 be on your list, especially the eyes gone. 1487 01:09:49,859 --> 01:09:52,170 Zion's probably gonna suck as long as he can stay healthy. 1488 01:09:52,170 --> 01:09:54,029 Like, he's gonna put up a lot of threes. 1489 01:09:54,029 --> 01:09:56,280 He's got a lot of opportunities down here, I think. 1490 01:09:57,720 --> 01:09:58,559 Marko Papic: Okay, that's good. 1491 01:09:58,620 --> 01:10:01,139 Uh, mine is Benedict Matran. 1492 01:10:01,800 --> 01:10:02,099 Jacob Shapiro: Mm-hmm. 1493 01:10:02,250 --> 01:10:02,730 A good one. 1494 01:10:03,389 --> 01:10:06,389 Marko Papic: You know, I just think that he's gonna have a breakout, uh, season, 1495 01:10:06,660 --> 01:10:08,970 uh, obviously with Halliburton injured. 1496 01:10:08,970 --> 01:10:11,580 So I think that's gonna be a, a really good one also. 1497 01:10:11,820 --> 01:10:15,570 Uh, look, you know, like an, uh, another way to look at that is Andrew Mhar. 1498 01:10:15,630 --> 01:10:18,450 I think, uh, you know, one of those two probably gonna 1499 01:10:18,450 --> 01:10:19,769 have to carry the look right. 1500 01:10:21,809 --> 01:10:24,990 Jacob Shapiro: I also, um, I really like, um, Grady Dick in Toronto. 1501 01:10:25,110 --> 01:10:27,540 I mean, Toronto's kind of a weird team, but I, I think 1502 01:10:27,540 --> 01:10:28,800 he's got a lot of potential. 1503 01:10:28,800 --> 01:10:30,960 They're in, they're in full on rebuild mode. 1504 01:10:30,960 --> 01:10:32,040 Like that might be a good one. 1505 01:10:32,490 --> 01:10:34,110 Marko Papic: The problem with Grady, Dick, I'll tell you is, 1506 01:10:34,230 --> 01:10:38,940 uh, so this, this fantasy league is, uh, exclusively Canadian. 1507 01:10:39,390 --> 01:10:43,680 And so every single Toronto rep player, yeah, it's just, there's a homer tax, 1508 01:10:44,100 --> 01:10:48,840 so he's already like, not just gone, but he's like gonna go for like 50 bucks. 1509 01:10:48,840 --> 01:10:54,090 You know, he's gonna go the same price as like, I don't know, an all star. 1510 01:10:54,180 --> 01:10:57,090 So grad Dick is already fully priced in this league. 1511 01:10:57,150 --> 01:10:59,010 So you gotta, you gotta be careful with home bias. 1512 01:10:59,010 --> 01:10:59,070 Um, 1513 01:10:59,610 --> 01:11:02,010 Jacob Shapiro: you know, another, another one, um, who, who was the 1514 01:11:02,010 --> 01:11:03,300 guy that Milwaukee just signed? 1515 01:11:03,540 --> 01:11:08,309 Um, the, the guard, uh, God, what was his name? 1516 01:11:08,309 --> 01:11:11,070 Cole Anthony, uh, on for Milwaukee. 1517 01:11:11,655 --> 01:11:12,615 Marko Papic: Yeah, that's a really good one. 1518 01:11:12,615 --> 01:11:14,895 He was in, uh, Orlando, like, right, he was in 1519 01:11:14,895 --> 01:11:17,025 Jacob Shapiro: Orlando and like, Milwaukee's just desperate. 1520 01:11:17,025 --> 01:11:19,125 So they just need anybody to come in and handle the ball. 1521 01:11:19,155 --> 01:11:21,675 'cause they can't just be Giannis and Miles Turner and, like, call Anthony 1522 01:11:21,675 --> 01:11:24,675 can score and, and he can do some stuff so that he, he's also just gonna get 1523 01:11:24,675 --> 01:11:26,415 some stats by virtue of where he is. 1524 01:11:26,505 --> 01:11:26,745 So, 1525 01:11:27,525 --> 01:11:28,005 Marko Papic: yeah. 1526 01:11:28,005 --> 01:11:31,605 Another one, obviously I'm just, uh, picking off, you know, the problem 1527 01:11:31,605 --> 01:11:34,035 with these guys are too smart, so it's not gonna really work. 1528 01:11:34,065 --> 01:11:36,465 You're looking at like teams where like a star is gone. 1529 01:11:36,465 --> 01:11:38,445 Like, that's just not gonna work against these guys. 1530 01:11:38,505 --> 01:11:39,945 They're, they just are like a computer. 1531 01:11:39,945 --> 01:11:43,755 They're like ai, you know, everything is like, but Peyton Pritchard, you know, 1532 01:11:43,755 --> 01:11:46,965 if you're looking for a breakout season, I mean, he's already gonna be gone. 1533 01:11:46,965 --> 01:11:48,285 I think he's a keeper, actually. 1534 01:11:48,345 --> 01:11:49,845 Uh, so he's not gonna be available. 1535 01:11:49,845 --> 01:11:54,345 But I, I like Benton Pritchard, uh, Jayden Ivy in, uh, Detroit. 1536 01:11:54,525 --> 01:11:55,305 Also another one. 1537 01:11:55,665 --> 01:11:55,965 Yeah. 1538 01:11:56,325 --> 01:11:57,225 Uh, that's a good one. 1539 01:11:57,225 --> 01:12:02,085 Just because of, uh, you know, speaking of gambling Beasley obviously. 1540 01:12:02,145 --> 01:12:03,255 Um, yeah. 1541 01:12:03,255 --> 01:12:04,155 But, uh, I don't know. 1542 01:12:04,305 --> 01:12:05,085 Uh, I'm not sure. 1543 01:12:05,085 --> 01:12:06,075 I think Miles Turner. 1544 01:12:08,805 --> 01:12:12,135 Jacob Shapiro: Yeah, I mean, I, I have my doubts about what's gonna happen there. 1545 01:12:12,225 --> 01:12:12,585 Um, 1546 01:12:12,940 --> 01:12:13,230 Marko Papic: yeah. 1547 01:12:13,235 --> 01:12:13,425 Yeah. 1548 01:12:13,485 --> 01:12:14,595 Not, not, not a fan. 1549 01:12:14,775 --> 01:12:16,785 Don't think he's gonna like, put up numbers next. 1550 01:12:16,785 --> 01:12:16,845 No, 1551 01:12:17,565 --> 01:12:18,315 Jacob Shapiro: he's, he's fine. 1552 01:12:18,315 --> 01:12:20,505 You know who I've always rooted for, who's probably never gonna 1553 01:12:20,565 --> 01:12:22,215 like, get to like Kevin Herder. 1554 01:12:22,400 --> 01:12:25,695 I, I, I'm always rooting for Kevin Herder and, you know, he's in Chicago. 1555 01:12:25,695 --> 01:12:27,615 Like, maybe he'll, I don't even know if Chicago resigned him. 1556 01:12:27,615 --> 01:12:29,655 I know that he was at, uh, the Red Mamba. 1557 01:12:29,715 --> 01:12:30,375 Red Velvet. 1558 01:12:30,375 --> 01:12:33,345 This is another way in which I'm like, Silla Silla loves Kevin Herder. 1559 01:12:33,585 --> 01:12:36,315 And I have also loved Kevin Herder since the Hawks drafted him. 1560 01:12:36,315 --> 01:12:38,775 He's, he's, uh, he, he could really do some things if somebody 1561 01:12:38,775 --> 01:12:39,555 would let him do it, you know? 1562 01:12:40,455 --> 01:12:43,155 Marko Papic: Alright, well, uh, I just wanted to put that bug in the ear. 1563 01:12:43,155 --> 01:12:46,095 It's that time of the year I'm starting to get a little antsy 1564 01:12:46,095 --> 01:12:47,655 that, uh, basketball's been gone. 1565 01:12:47,655 --> 01:12:51,825 I mean, like, reread the Skinny Luca Men's Health, uh, article like six times. 1566 01:12:52,125 --> 01:12:52,425 Wow. 1567 01:12:52,430 --> 01:12:52,720 You are desperate. 1568 01:12:53,370 --> 01:12:54,179 Maybe three times. 1569 01:12:54,179 --> 01:12:54,330 Yeah. 1570 01:12:54,389 --> 01:12:55,290 I am desperate. 1571 01:12:55,349 --> 01:12:55,620 Okay. 1572 01:12:56,190 --> 01:12:58,170 Um, a couple of things on that. 1573 01:12:58,259 --> 01:13:01,679 One thing that I will definitely, so we haven't talked about basketball 1574 01:13:01,679 --> 01:13:04,710 for a long time, but next time we do talk about basketball, I'm going 1575 01:13:04,710 --> 01:13:06,960 to be all about the Euro basket. 1576 01:13:07,830 --> 01:13:08,009 Hmm. 1577 01:13:08,070 --> 01:13:11,340 I think it's gonna be one of the most competitive Euro baskets ever. 1578 01:13:11,670 --> 01:13:13,440 So it's happening at the end of August. 1579 01:13:13,740 --> 01:13:14,580 Get ready for that. 1580 01:13:15,059 --> 01:13:16,740 You've got Yoki playing for Serbia. 1581 01:13:16,740 --> 01:13:20,400 I, he's not confirmed, but it looks like he will, obviously Don is 1582 01:13:20,400 --> 01:13:23,460 playing for Slovenia 'cause he's a psychopath and just wants to play 1583 01:13:23,460 --> 01:13:25,620 every time, which I love so much. 1584 01:13:26,160 --> 01:13:29,250 And I think it's gonna be an epic, epic battle. 1585 01:13:29,280 --> 01:13:30,690 Like every team is stacked. 1586 01:13:30,929 --> 01:13:34,200 Uh, German, Germany is obviously coming off of like a ton of 1587 01:13:34,200 --> 01:13:35,429 really great performances. 1588 01:13:35,429 --> 01:13:39,030 I don't think they're gonna have it again, but, you know, uh, what was it? 1589 01:13:39,030 --> 01:13:42,570 Uh, Feba, uh, there was that, uh, Feba, uh, Patty Mills. 1590 01:13:44,144 --> 01:13:45,330 You know, Feba Patty Mills. 1591 01:13:45,330 --> 01:13:47,099 There's a feba like Dennis Schroeder. 1592 01:13:47,099 --> 01:13:50,880 Like Dennis Schroeder got this huge contract and I'm like, were 1593 01:13:50,880 --> 01:13:54,660 they just going off of his like, international experience, you know? 1594 01:13:56,130 --> 01:13:59,550 So, uh, anyways, I think that it's gonna be a great, uh, great 1595 01:13:59,550 --> 01:14:01,259 way to get us into the NB season. 1596 01:14:01,259 --> 01:14:02,009 I can't wait. 1597 01:14:02,070 --> 01:14:05,880 And, uh, next time you hear from me on basketball, it's gonna be about what 1598 01:14:05,880 --> 01:14:07,559 happened at the Euro basket tournament. 1599 01:14:07,800 --> 01:14:10,170 Until then, though, everyone goes listening to this. 1600 01:14:10,200 --> 01:14:13,710 If you're a basketball fan, uh, please tweet at me. 1601 01:14:15,000 --> 01:14:18,030 Your favorite two, three undervalued assets. 1602 01:14:18,030 --> 01:14:18,750 I need help. 1603 01:14:18,750 --> 01:14:22,590 I'm never going to win this league unless we crowdsource. 1604 01:14:23,340 --> 01:14:25,769 Some, some like competition, you know? 1605 01:14:25,769 --> 01:14:30,000 And by the way, I have went Bama as a keeper, guys on a rookies 1606 01:14:30,000 --> 01:14:31,620 salary deal for two more years. 1607 01:14:31,620 --> 01:14:35,250 If I don't win next two years, it's like over like, oh no, they're 1608 01:14:35,250 --> 01:14:37,559 gonna, they're gonna like, make fun of me for the rest of eternity. 1609 01:14:37,620 --> 01:14:37,890 So, 1610 01:14:38,580 --> 01:14:38,790 Jacob Shapiro: yeah. 1611 01:14:38,820 --> 01:14:41,309 So really what we need also listeners is somebody who makes sure that 1612 01:14:41,309 --> 01:14:44,280 Victor doesn't have a return of his blood clots because what, what Marco 1613 01:14:44,280 --> 01:14:47,309 really needs is sort of Victor to become the Thanos of the league that 1614 01:14:47,309 --> 01:14:48,360 it looks like he's about to become. 1615 01:14:50,190 --> 01:14:53,670 Marko Papic: Well I think that, uh, thankfully, uh, you know, there 1616 01:14:53,670 --> 01:14:59,430 are, uh, anticoagulants that he can take, so hopefully he is on them 1617 01:14:59,519 --> 01:15:04,080 for the rest of his life, uh, so that he does not have another blood 1618 01:15:04,080 --> 01:15:05,610 clot, you know, fingers crossed. 1619 01:15:06,390 --> 01:15:09,240 Jacob Shapiro: Wonder what the tariff rate on those is on that note.