Host

While I may use medical terminology in this podcast, please note that I am not a licensed medical professional.

Host

Any information provided is for general knowledge purposes only and should not be considered medical advice.

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Always consult with a qualified healthcare professional for personalized medical guidance.

Host

Welcome to the Real Estate Wealth Podcast where we explore real estate as the most proven way to financial freedom.

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Host

So for these reasons and others like I was going to ask you still staying on sort of the build a rent product is a great, sustainable, long term, great product.

Expert Guest

Absolutely.

Host

You know, we're also seeing or hearing about either, to your point, both demographics.

Host

The younger sort of millennial Gen Z pre kids who maybe, well, either can't afford to buy a home because of the affordability issues or choose not to because they want flexibility.

Host

And same for sort of the older baby boomer retirees who are like, you know what, we're going to sell our house in Phoenix.

Host

We got a nice little nest egg.

Host

We just want to rent from here on out.

Host

We're going to take Winnebago and tour the countryside.

Host

Right?

Expert Guest

Beautiful.

Host

Beautiful.

Host

And so I think for all those reasons, it is a product type that's very interesting.

Expert Guest

Yes.

Host

Let's talk a little bit about operational efficiency technologies, some of the stuff you're doing at Yardy Matrix with your business intelligence and how that might help customers manage costs or increase some of their efficiencies.

Host

What are you guys seeing on that?

Expert Guest

Yeah, so I'm going to separate this in sort of Yardy Systems, you know, because I'm a division of Yardy Systems.

Expert Guest

Yardi Systems is one of the largest property management software companies.

Expert Guest

Software and services that help support people who own and manage commercial real estate.

Expert Guest

And then I can talk about Matrix as a division of the company.

Expert Guest

We're a relatively small division of the company.

Expert Guest

But on the software side, the fact of the matter is that the requirement to reduce cost on an ongoing basis is critical.

Expert Guest

Costs are, expenses have been increasing significantly, we hope and we do think that they're beginning to come down.

Expert Guest

The rate of growth is beginning to come down, but labor costs are up 20%, materials costs and supply costs are up, obviously insurance costs are up.

Expert Guest

Taxes are still rising.

Expert Guest

So, you know, we track the expenses.

Expert Guest

So expenses have still been going up.

Expert Guest

So what happens when you want to provide a better customer experience that's less intrusive and you have expense pressures all over the place?

Expert Guest

Well, you do adopt technology, right?

Expert Guest

Technology.

Expert Guest

You do that and so we have 40 modules that basically comprise every component of operating a multifamily property where you can basically have a foundation in the property management of record itself.

Expert Guest

And then there's all these different modules that plug in from marketing to utility management, to procurement to insurance compliance and vendor management.

Expert Guest

There's a gazillion of them, but all of which is driving the expense down, providing still very positive customer experience and focusing your labor on things that are uniquely consumer facing.

Expert Guest

That's the issue is if you're going to have people focus them on actually having an impact, not on basically back end.

Expert Guest

Yeah, that has no value fundamentally to the customer experience.

Expert Guest

And so a lot of the customer acquisition, lease management, even a lot of the maintenance activity is being the back end of that is all being automated, driving down costs.

Expert Guest

Now also inside of those, the new development of artificial intelligence is basically being just driven into those existing products.

Expert Guest

So when it comes to procurement, there's like an AI bot that basically helps you buy stuff.

Expert Guest

There's a big, big move on the customer acquisition side where or the thing we call a chat iq, which is really a chat bot that has replaced a lot of the initial call center costs and yielded to the leasing professionals a high likelihood leasing person who actually needs to see somebody.

Expert Guest

So you can basically digitize the entire transaction for people who just don't want to see somebody and are willing to lease completely.

Expert Guest

And we can verify their identity, we can take payments, you can do a virtual tour, you can do all the infrastructure, but there are people who actually want to see it and you can support them and that now you can increase the productivity of those leasing consultants and have fewer of them and have them more productive.

Expert Guest

So that's a big deal.

Expert Guest

And it also enables, I would say, some marginal marketing sources that otherwise wouldn't be cost effective to suddenly become cost effective, which is, which is helping on the sort of general.

Host

Can you explain what you mean by that?

Expert Guest

Well, you know, look, there may be, let's say some websites, right?

Expert Guest

So let's.

Expert Guest

There's a range of SEO, PPC and there's a whole range of these different sort of marketing channels.

Expert Guest

So you may have a marketing channel which traditionally would have generated a lot of activity but very little yield, right?

Expert Guest

And you'd say, look, I'm not going to advertise on that particular.

Expert Guest

I may get an incremental one or two leases, but like all the crap I have to deal with to get to those one or two leases, the economics don't work, right?

Expert Guest

But if the chatbot's dealing with all of that sort of sorting through.

Expert Guest

And now you're only seeing the few people on site that actually will lease.

Expert Guest

Suddenly that marketing source, that marketing channel becomes economically viable where before it wasn't.

Expert Guest

So you're accessing more incremental demand because you're not paying the cost associated with the labor cost of clogging your pipeline to get, to get to the leases that you actually need.

Expert Guest

And that gets rippling through every aspect of all the products.

Expert Guest

Right.

Expert Guest

Utility management, procurement and marketing and also moving all the payments.

Expert Guest

So it's recurring revenue that's automated, that's already done.

Expert Guest

So all that stuff is, you really have to drive the cost down.

Expert Guest

But just, you know, Fred Smith at FedEx said this 40 years ago, as there's nothing new under the sun, you automate the routine, you humanize the exception.

Expert Guest

That's what this is all about.

Expert Guest

So when there is a problem, you get to a real person who can solve it, be empathetic, provide great service.

Expert Guest

But all the, all the routine stuff should all be automated away.

Expert Guest

And remember also it's harder to hire people in this labor market.

Expert Guest

Harder to hire, harder to train.

Expert Guest

You got to have a better technology backbone.

Expert Guest

And the way the world works now is it's variable priced.

Expert Guest

Okay.

Expert Guest

So back in my day when I was running deals, we had large fixed cost systems.

Expert Guest

Now they're all variable costs, variable cost systems.

Expert Guest

Right.

Expert Guest

So it ups, it moves up and down with your scale as an entity.

Expert Guest

So because basically YARDI is the backend infrastructure that's bearing the sort of like fixed cost to keep the infrastructure up in place.

Expert Guest

So you as an owner, operator or as a manager, you're only paying on a variable cost basis tied to your revenue stream.

Expert Guest

It's a much better, much better sort of model.

Host

Yes, we always joke, the yardi, let me guess, $2.50 per unit, whatever.

Expert Guest

Right, right, right, right.

Host

But it's a very good model and it works and we module after module.

Expert Guest

Yes, it adds a lot of value.

Expert Guest

Yeah.

Expert Guest

And again Yardy matrix is the market intel module of Yardy.

Expert Guest

And so we are also working on AI initiatives in our, you know, in our organization that are separate from what's going on elsewhere.

Host

Right.

Expert Guest

But again my whole system, my whole purpose for being is to save our clients time, help them make better decisions more quickly by doing a lot of the, the monotonous labor intensive work so that you as an investor are only focused on the things where you add value.

Expert Guest

And a lot of the routine stuff is basically done for you.

Expert Guest

And that's why?

Expert Guest

Fundamentally, you trade money in order to get back time.

Expert Guest

It's a basic trade, and it only works because I'm at scale and I can do things at scale, and then I can basically make an economic trade for my labor cost is less than your labor cost.

Expert Guest

And that's how the economics work.

Host

Yeah, no, makes perfect sense.

Expert Guest

Yeah.

Expert Guest

Most things do if they work.

Host

Yeah.

Host

Let's talk a little bit about, speaking of investors, about the investor side and capital flows into the business.

Expert Guest

You bet.

Host

Because we've been hearing for a long time that there's so much capital for multifamily on the sidelines.

Host

Right.

Host

Sitting on the sidelines.

Host

Sitting on the sidelines.

Host

I mean, are you seeing.

Host

Because you mentioned earlier, and we're seeing it ourselves, you know, more movement.

Host

Right.

Host

More deals coming into play, starting to come in.

Expert Guest

Yeah, yeah.

Host

Like, for example, Jeff, we looked at a deal in Vegas a couple of weeks ago.

Host

They had 30 offers on this deal.

Host

30 offers, which I'm like, wow, exactly 15.

Host

Best and final, by the way.

Expert Guest

Okay.

Expert Guest

Well, there's a fair amount of interest out there.

Host

So there's a fair amount of that was in Las Vegas.

Expert Guest

Right.

Host

So I'm wondering what you're seeing, you know, is money, obviously there's a lot of money sitting on the sidelines still.

Host

What's it going to take for that money to move?

Host

You know, and kind of, where do you see that?

Host

Where do you see the investment demand?

Host

I mean, we know workforce housing is a great niche within the world of multifamily.

Host

You know, where do you see investor interest there?

Host

And kind of where do you think we are at this point?

Expert Guest

So I'll call it the fundamental conundrum is this.

Expert Guest

Okay.

Expert Guest

It's very hard for people to buy below their debt cost.

Expert Guest

Right.

Expert Guest

Because you actually then have to.

Expert Guest

You've got negative leverage, and you got to believe that you're going to get rent growth to get you out of that.

Expert Guest

And again, the short rate is five.

Expert Guest

Okay.

Expert Guest

Tech that.

Expert Guest

So you're talking about eight.

Expert Guest

Okay.

Expert Guest

Or seven or eight.

Expert Guest

The long rate is now 4.3.

Host

Pick four five this morning.

Expert Guest

Four, five.

Expert Guest

So, hey, put 100 at three and a half.

Expert Guest

It all worked.

Expert Guest

Okay.

Expert Guest

At four, four, four, five, it doesn't quite work.

Expert Guest

Okay.

Expert Guest

Because you put 175 basis points to 200 basis points on that for a commercial mortgage.

Expert Guest

Right?

Expert Guest

Yes.

Expert Guest

Remember, the residential mortgage is probably another 100 basis points on top of that for residential mortgages.

Host

Yep, that's right.

Expert Guest

So when you look at that, residential.

Host

Homeowners aren't buying A cap rate.

Host

So that's less important.

Expert Guest

True, true.

Expert Guest

But they still have their own financing issues.

Expert Guest

So when you, when you look at that now, you're like, it's really hard to make the deals work unless you're getting an assumable loan.

Expert Guest

Okay.

Expert Guest

Because they're still out there.

Expert Guest

Okay.

Expert Guest

And then you can basically close the bid, ask spread.

Expert Guest

Okay.

Expert Guest

So that's, that's an opportunity.

Expert Guest

You like a market in the Midwest, get a loan that still has eight years to run on it and it was at 3%.

Expert Guest

Okay.

Expert Guest

You could make that.

Host

That typically is going to require a lot more equity.

Host

Right.

Expert Guest

There's equity in there.

Expert Guest

There could be also some other fees and assumption fees.

Expert Guest

So again, it's got its own issues or you have to have such level of conviction or your capital cost has to be low enough that you can tolerate that negative leverage and hope to basically earn your way out of it.

Expert Guest

And you've got to project some kind of rent pop probably in 26, 27, back in the 20 in order to sort of like make it all work.

Expert Guest

Okay.

Host

Yes.

Expert Guest

Or somebody's got to take a haircut.

Expert Guest

Right.

Expert Guest

In order to make this thing work.

Expert Guest

Right.

Expert Guest

Somebody.

Expert Guest

Something's got to work here.

Expert Guest

Okay.

Expert Guest

And so the reason you don't see transactions like supercharged is like it's really hard to line up all of those unless, you know.

Expert Guest

So the deals that are getting done tend to be somebody who's got a liquidity issue that they've got to resolve.

Host

Okay.

Host

And they'll sell at the market price today.

Host

That.

Host

Right.

Expert Guest

In order.

Host

Which is essentially a cap rate that's going to equal the tenure plus the spread.

Expert Guest

Right.

Expert Guest

I mean, it's a math problem.

Expert Guest

Right.

Expert Guest

Like.

Host

Yes.

Expert Guest

So, so, so you know.

Expert Guest

Yes.

Expert Guest

You're getting transactions because, you know, somebody's got an issue that they have to resolve and they're willing to basically take the haircut.

Expert Guest

It's easier if they bought the thing in 20, 20, 15, 2016, they had a big run up in value and they say, ah, well, you know what, I didn't make as much money off the peak.

Expert Guest

But hail, we hit our numbers, things worked out okay.

Expert Guest

And we live to fight another day.

Expert Guest

Boom.

Host

Yeah.

Host

And now I can buy something at a more sane value going forward and.

Expert Guest

Exactly.

Expert Guest

So I'm not saying that that's why our deal is getting done.

Expert Guest

Sure.

Expert Guest

But the fact of the matter is the peak of 2022 is not going to happen.

Expert Guest

The numbers don't line up there.

Expert Guest

You haven't had enough rent growth since 2022.

Expert Guest

To negate the sort of reduction in values on the other side.

Expert Guest

Okay, so, so I would say that's what I'm saying is like there's a stress play of those deals bought at the peak.

Expert Guest

We're like, I don't know how it's going to, I don't know how that's going to get resolved.

Expert Guest

Okay.

Expert Guest

So somebody's got to take a haircut.

Expert Guest

Again, deals bought earlier or pre Covid, they won't make as much money as they could have, but okay, they'll do.

Expert Guest

Okay.

Expert Guest

All right.

Expert Guest

And so those deals will sort of move forward.

Expert Guest

Look, there's plenty of capital that would like to come off the sidelines, but obviously there's a return expectation and it is reset at the new cost of capital.

Host

Well, and the buyer now is going to have to make assumptions to your point on rent growth to probably make it work.

Host

And.

Host

Or what's my exit cap rate which I'm hearing guys are exiting at the.

Host

Going in or less.

Expert Guest

Okay.

Host

In the old days we don't.

Expert Guest

Going in.

Host

Yeah, yeah.

Host

Going in we were adding 10 basis points a year for hold.

Host

Right.

Host

If we held something seven years, we'd add 70bps to what we were going in.

Host

And that was our exit.

Expert Guest

That's right.

Host

But now you do that today.

Host

It doesn't work.

Expert Guest

That's right.

Expert Guest

So you have to buy anything.

Expert Guest

You have to buy anything.

Expert Guest

So you have to play around with someone's assumptions.

Expert Guest

But you also have to retain the essence of reality.

Expert Guest

Right.

Expert Guest

You can't otherwise you're buying into a new problem.

Host

Correct.

Expert Guest

That doesn't work.

Expert Guest

And when I think about long term, I just don't see a ten year anywhere below three and a half.

Expert Guest

Like I just don't see it.

Expert Guest

I don't see how you get.

Expert Guest

So then I don't see.

Expert Guest

Therefore I don't see a mortgage rate on a ten year anything below five and a quarter ever.

Expert Guest

Like Again, for a number of periods of time.

Expert Guest

I just don't see that happening.

Host

Which historically that's probably right.

Host

In the last 30 years, that's where it's been.

Expert Guest

Well, again let's say you get 2% ish inflation.

Expert Guest

Right.

Expert Guest

And then 100 basis points of real yield on the 10 year.

Expert Guest

Okay.

Expert Guest

It sort of works.

Expert Guest

And you need to get the short rate down to about two and a half with a three and a half to sort of get.

Expert Guest

Have an upward sloping yield curve where we're sort of like that's, that's normal.

Expert Guest

Ish.

Expert Guest

Okay.

Expert Guest

Now we're not there and we Were getting close.

Expert Guest

We were at a 3, 6 for a moment, for a hot minute, and then it ran away.

Expert Guest

Okay.

Host

Yeah.

Expert Guest

And that's really based upon.

Expert Guest

Okay.

Expert Guest

You know, the election, by the way, interest rates started to move before the election, but it was based upon an understanding that neither candidate was going to do anything about the deficit and the amount of debt that's out there.

Expert Guest

And that debt has to get either monetized or it has to have a higher yield.

Expert Guest

Right.

Expert Guest

And anything I'm seeing on inflation, inflation does look like it's coming into that two, two and a half percent handle where it can work.

Expert Guest

And we are seeing that in a reduction in the quits rate, a movement lower in the eci, which is the employment cost index.

Expert Guest

So all these numbers are sort of lining up.

Expert Guest

We're seeing some level of productivity increases and unit labor costs being 2ish, maybe sub 2%.

Expert Guest

So all that, you know, from an inflation standpoint, I can see two to two and a half percent because we have some deglobalization going on, reconfiguration of supply chains.

Expert Guest

That's kind of inflationary.

Expert Guest

But we are seeing out of China goods deflation like crazy.

Expert Guest

So that's helping the task move a little easier.

Expert Guest

Okay.

Expert Guest

Anyway, like, so when we talk about rates, that's, this is the conundrum of like trying to get all this stuff to line out again.

Expert Guest

Special situations, yes.

Expert Guest

Broad based, you know, happy days are here again.

Expert Guest

It's hard to see that sort of work its way out.

Expert Guest

But again, you look forward past the supply surge.

Expert Guest

Right.

Expert Guest

You do see the ability to have consistent rent growth at 4 to 5%, 3 to 5%.

Expert Guest

Again, historically, by the way, if you got one point over inflation on rents and expenses grew at 2, 3%, everything worked, all the numbers worked.

Expert Guest

Right.

Expert Guest

And that is the historic norm, one point over inflation.

Expert Guest

That's where I learned for Renko.

Expert Guest

I learned at the knee of Terry Considine, a great investor.

Expert Guest

He taught me everything I know about multifamily real estate.

Expert Guest

He said that's the way the world works.

Expert Guest

You just have to like.

Expert Guest

And if you get anything above that, you are blessed.

Host

And we got well above it for many years.

Expert Guest

Right.

Expert Guest

So anything above a three, you're, you're, you're in fact city.

Expert Guest

Okay.

Expert Guest

You know, that's amazing.

Expert Guest

And again, you got to keep your expenses so that your NOI, you get operating leverage.

Expert Guest

So you get a 5% NOI increase and then you lever that up, you know, at 65% leverage, you're at a 15 ROE boom.

Expert Guest

Everything works.

Host

And if cap rates compress, then it's really a home run home.

Expert Guest

Right.

Expert Guest

You go from everything works to a home run.

Expert Guest

Right.

Expert Guest

And so that's.

Expert Guest

But even if cap rates don't compress, if you hit those numbers, you're still going to do fine.

Host

Yeah.

Host

It'll be historically the way it was meant to be.

Host

You operate a property.

Host

Right.

Host

And you've done very well.

Expert Guest

Right.

Expert Guest

You get rich slowly.

Expert Guest

I mean, remember, multifamily real estate was not designed to get rich quick.

Expert Guest

No.

Expert Guest

It was to get rich slowly.

Host

I call this business my get rich slow scheme.

Host

That's what.

Expert Guest

Right.

Host

I want to write a book called the Get Rich Slow Scheme.

Host

It's just no one will lie because everyone wants to get rich quick.

Host

Right.

Expert Guest

These market conditions have been ahistoric.

Expert Guest

Okay.

Expert Guest

Both in terms of capital market costs coming down as well as rent growth that has been outside of the historic norms.

Host

Yes, no question.

Host

But to your earlier statements, you still think sort of in spite of some of these, we're kind of in between in many ways, right?

Host

What you're saying?

Expert Guest

Yes.

Host

But in spite of that, you feel like now is a good time to buy even though there's a little bit of pain in some of these markets with oversupply.

Host

Yeah, rent's flattening, maybe rent's going down.

Expert Guest

I mean, I think you just have.

Expert Guest

I think you have to underwrite reality and say, look, yes, if I'm going to buy in Charlotte and Raleigh, Atlanta, Dallas, these are great economies, business friendly economies.

Expert Guest

They're going to grow.

Expert Guest

They've been dynamic.

Expert Guest

I actually did the data back 50 years just to look at population growth and supply response.

Expert Guest

And they are more cyclical in nature, but the cyclical is with an upward trend.

Expert Guest

Okay.

Expert Guest

It's just that this particular cycle, the rent pop was big, the supply pop was big, and now the downside's big.

Expert Guest

But they've always, always had had supply responses that come in waves.

Expert Guest

Just the ways haven't been that big, but they've always done well because the economies and the public policy consensus around growth have been solidified.

Expert Guest

Those cities have grown, they've expanded.

Expert Guest

Right.

Expert Guest

Heck, Dallas is like up to the white, up to the Oklahoma border now.

Expert Guest

Okay.

Expert Guest

And quite frankly a little bit beyond it.

Expert Guest

And they have consistent public policy consensus around growth.

Expert Guest

They're making infrastructure investments in their areas.

Expert Guest

They can handle the population growth.

Expert Guest

The key thing that I look for, and we've done analysis around it, is when the public policy consensus on growth breaks and when the infrastructure investment stops, then you can see that within 10 years that city is gonna blow up, right?

Expert Guest

Because it can't handle.

Expert Guest

And then everything's gonna be about allocating scarcity as opposed to facilitating abundance flat out.

Expert Guest

And so those are the.

Expert Guest

Again, growth requires a public policy and private market consensus, right?

Expert Guest

That the community wants to grow.

Expert Guest

Once it decides that it doesn't want to grow, then it's allocating scarcity.

Expert Guest

And that usually is not a good place for multifamily investors over the long run.

Expert Guest

For a short period of time, sure, it's great.

Expert Guest

What I have seen again and again and again is while you can make money in a society, community that allocates scarcity, okay?

Expert Guest

At some point in time, the community is going to revolt, particularly around housing, and say, we don't think it's appropriate from a public policy consensus for people to make money on housing, forgetting that housing facilitates growth and is a piece of infrastructure.

Expert Guest

That's why it works.

Expert Guest

That's why the US is the largest and best and most liquid housing asset class in the world, which is why it attracts a tremendous amount of foreign capital.

Expert Guest

I deal with folks from Europe, Canada, South America, Asia.

Expert Guest

They're investing in the US multifamily because it is a deep asset type.

Expert Guest

And you can't invest in this kind of asset type in many places around the world.

Host

And especially with the kind of financing.

Expert Guest

You can get, it is just not available at scale to allocate the kind of capital that can be allocated, which is where you have Australian money, you have Korean money, you have Japanese money.

Expert Guest

For a time, you had Chinese money, you have European capital, you have Middle Eastern capital, you have an amazing amount of Canadian capital all focused on U.S.

Expert Guest

multifamily in addition to the normal amount of U.S.

Expert Guest

domestic capital.

Expert Guest

It is a very deep capital market.

Host

And the GSEs provide such a stable source of financing that no other countries really have.

Expert Guest

Right?

Expert Guest

And the GSEs have chosen to use it wisely.

Expert Guest

Now, I will tell you, just to be honest, between you and me and the fence post, the thing that gave me the biggest scare, the biggest scare was the proposals that were floating around, which we worked on and combated, was to basically attach rent control to GSE financing.

Expert Guest

It was that close.

Expert Guest

Don't kid yourself.

Host

Well, and depending on the administration who won last night, it could have been even closer.

Expert Guest

It was that close.

Expert Guest

The current, when we were.

Expert Guest

When they.

Expert Guest

And we knew, I knew in 20, mid 23, all the RFIs started coming out for the administration from the White House, from the fhfa, they were all pushing to basically do something where they could run on fixing, quote, unquote, housing.

Host

Yes.

Host

And they could use the lever of the GSEs, which is a big one.

Expert Guest

Because 60% of multifamily to the ever living credit of the NMHC and NAA, they were able to basically beat that back.

Expert Guest

And there was some acceptance on fee structures and disclosure, which was fine.

Expert Guest

Right.

Expert Guest

You know, of all the things that could have happened, the actual proposals that came out of the administration were the least bad thing.

Expert Guest

And if you recall, Harris and Biden talked about rent control and they tied it to depreciation.

Expert Guest

That really was a gar.

Expert Guest

That was a.

Expert Guest

That was.

Expert Guest

That was not a serious proposal.

Expert Guest

That honestly, that was a press release and everybody knew it and they knew it.

Expert Guest

The stake through the heart, and they did not need a law to do it, was to tie rent control to GSE financing.

Expert Guest

There's nothing that prevents that from happening.

Host

Yeah.

Host

Well, and having said that, they set the precedent during COVID as you know, by start starting to encroach and saying, okay, now you have to offer an additional 30 days before you evict and.

Host

Right.

Host

So.

Host

And that never went away.

Expert Guest

Right.

Host

By the way, that's still in play because I'm a big user of GSE capital.

Host

So it does scare me because they have a lot of power and leverage and with a swipe of a pen.

Host

Right.

Host

Can instant policies.

Expert Guest

Yeah.

Expert Guest

So my point is public policy does matter in multifamily.

Expert Guest

So you are.

Expert Guest

So you have a modicum of exposure.

Expert Guest

It is a modicum.

Expert Guest

It could be a lot worse other ways.

Expert Guest

But that was a close call.

Host

That.

Expert Guest

That was a close call.

Expert Guest

And it's bad public policy.

Expert Guest

It's bad for the renters.

Expert Guest

It's bad long term.

Expert Guest

It's just every possible way you can imagine.

Expert Guest

It's just horrible.

Host

So, yes, I know you're preaching.

Expert Guest

Yeah.

Host

And so thank you for working and beating back that initiative.

Expert Guest

I had a very small.

Expert Guest

I had a very small role to play.

Expert Guest

Mostly was the NMHC and na.

Expert Guest

They did an amazing job.

Expert Guest

So as your members of those organizations, your contributions were well spent.

Host

Yeah, no, they always do.

Expert Guest

By the way, I didn't hear what happened to Prop 33 in California.

Expert Guest

I haven't checked that.

Host

It got defeated by a lot.

Expert Guest

Wow.

Host

The last count was about 60.

Expert Guest

40.

Host

Yes.

Expert Guest

Wow.

Host

Well, what do you know that means correct sanity in California, which is an insane place, as you know.

Expert Guest

Okay.

Host

And a bipartisan sanity.

Host

Right.

Host

So that means a lot of renters themselves realize there was not a policy.

Host

It's bad again.

Expert Guest

It's a It's a supply.

Expert Guest

It fundamentally is adding supply.

Expert Guest

That's, that's really the issue.

Expert Guest

And I'm thrilled that, that the voters of California.

Host

Yeah.

Host

Now as am I, because you know, as California goes, some of the crazy ideas spread.

Expert Guest

Yeah.

Host

And so I don't own anything here by choice other than the office building I'm sitting in.

Expert Guest

Yes.

Host

But I know other city states were looking at Prop 33.

Expert Guest

Yeah.

Host

Let's see if it passes all horrible.

Expert Guest

Okay.

Host

Yeah, so it's all good.

Host

So listen Jeff, we're bumping up on just over an hour here, so I think we probably need to wrap.

Host

But I guess one, one sort of final question.

Host

If you could sort of look in your crystal ball in the multifamily industry and specifically, you know, kind of workforce housing, now that we've had really a historic President Trump getting elected last night.

Host

Again, it was an unprecedented event.

Host

I mean where do you kind of see, where do you see the industry playing out if you had a crystal ball over the next say five or ten years?

Expert Guest

Well, fundamentally I love multifamily.

Expert Guest

I've been around it 20 years.

Expert Guest

I've seen it, how it grows.

Expert Guest

I'm very optimistic about it as both for meeting a consumer need and as an investable class.

Expert Guest

There's not a, it's a false trade off to say you can't do both.

Expert Guest

I do believe that you have to look, you have to really look past the next year, year and a half of new supply being delivered.

Expert Guest

Okay.

Expert Guest

So let's, let's look past that because there will be short term pain in these 20 markets as this stuff gets absorbed.

Expert Guest

There's no question.

Expert Guest

But let's look beyond that.

Expert Guest

Right.

Expert Guest

Most folks are looking into a five to ten year horizon.

Expert Guest

Okay.

Expert Guest

There we still haven't resolved the housing shortage, hasn't been resolved.

Expert Guest

If interest rates stay as they are, then it's unlikely you're going to have a boon of single family sales, which means that retention in multifamily will still tend to be pretty good.

Expert Guest

Okay.

Expert Guest

So all and again going past 27, a lot of deals don't work in terms of development.

Expert Guest

Okay.

Expert Guest

Now to the extent that there is a true radical change in local zoning permitting and requirements, and that could happen.

Expert Guest

Okay.

Expert Guest

But that will take time.

Expert Guest

I continue to see the ability to have rent growth in excess of inflation, 1 to 3% in excess of inflation.

Expert Guest

That's rather durable.

Expert Guest

Right.

Expert Guest

Remember, if housing costs are 30 ish percent or 35% of incomes, if you have modest 3% wage growth, you can easily have 3 4% rent growth and not crowd out the rest of the consumer budget.

Expert Guest

So I view that as absolutely sustainable and we've seen it before.

Expert Guest

So the economics of the fundamentals all work in terms of it being an investable class where both the revenue and the expense structure are an operating basis can work where unless there's a radical change in planning and zoning policy and even if it did, it would take five to seven years to work its way through the development cycle.

Host

Yes.

Expert Guest

So I continue to think that this is a.

Expert Guest

You can continue to see rent growth.

Expert Guest

I do believe in dynamic economies that have a consensus for growth.

Expert Guest

I believe in a lot of smaller markets.

Expert Guest

I believe in the Midwest.

Expert Guest

I'm looking at demographic changes, deglobalization, really the build out of the energy infrastructure all along the Gulf coast and the growth of the petrochemical industry and manufacturing.

Expert Guest

They won't be as labor intensive as maybe some people would hope.

Expert Guest

But there's a radical amount of reindustrialization that's going to occur.

Expert Guest

It starts with the oil and gas industry, goes into petrochemicals, goes into plastics and follows from there.

Expert Guest

So fundamentally I believe in, you know, kind of the Southeast Texas, the Mountain west and to a certain extent smaller cities in those areas because they will continue to grow at the margin.

Expert Guest

You know, among the major kind of, you know, global centers are we call our core cities.

Expert Guest

That will depend upon the level of commitment that they have to re energizing growth in their metropolitan areas.

Expert Guest

They're going to have to get control of their public safety issues first.

Expert Guest

Security always comes first.

Expert Guest

Then they're going to have to sort of actually encourage business to be there.

Expert Guest

I think New York has a bit of a leg up in that regard.

Expert Guest

Boston's not so bad, Chicago's.

Host

I think San Francisco and Oakland need a little help in that regard.

Expert Guest

And that really is just are there enough.

Expert Guest

I grew up in New York in the 70s and things got really bad before there was a public policy consensus around that growth was desirable.

Expert Guest

I don't think maybe California is beginning down that road and there may be some great opportunities to buy because remember, fortunes were made in New York City right around the late 70s, early 80s when the public policy consensus turned.

Expert Guest

Now I can't tell you whether that condition is the same in California or in Seattle or in Portland, Oregon.

Expert Guest

But I can tell you is local investors who are clued into their local economies and can see that inflection point and then can invest into it will have legendary wealth opportunities.

Expert Guest

But it really same thing with Minneapolis.

Expert Guest

Will these Cities fundamentally hit that inflection point where they want to grow again and are willing to do the things necessary to grow.

Expert Guest

I don't know that.

Expert Guest

I can't tell you that.

Expert Guest

But someone who is local and is close could do incredibly well in that investment strategy if they can pick that inflection point.

Expert Guest

And that's where I'll leave with.

Expert Guest

I'm optimistic about multifamily as an asset class and housing as an asset class.

Expert Guest

It's got tremendous opportunities, it's imbued with the public interest.

Expert Guest

So I think it's good for society, I think it's good for the investor.

Expert Guest

And the best run organizations provide great services to their clients, create value.

Expert Guest

And we've seen this again and again and again and again.

Expert Guest

That government run housing doesn't work.

Expert Guest

Doesn't work.

Expert Guest

That the private sector has to be engaged and activated in order to provide housing for Americans.

Expert Guest

And that's what I would argue with.

Host

Which is why what makes, you know, what we do, what I call affordable with a small, a compelling and great business.

Host

Yes, yes.

Expert Guest

And providing high quality at low cost to provide clean, basic quality housing.

Expert Guest

Right.

Expert Guest

Keep the community safe, have high resident quality standards, expect people to pay their rent because it raises the standards within the community that people will meet their obligations and their responsibilities.

Expert Guest

And it's incumbent upon the owner of the property to provide a safe, clean and stable housing environment.

Expert Guest

At AIMCO, I operated 100,000 workforce housing units.

Expert Guest

And that was in my mind, the moral foundation of what we did.

Expert Guest

Okay.

Expert Guest

And we were able to energize our entire operations team around that mission.

Expert Guest

Okay.

Expert Guest

That we provide something positive for the world.

Expert Guest

We expect our residents to meet their commitments and we commit ourselves to providing a great living environment for them to reach their potential.

Expert Guest

And I'm very proud of what we did, what my team did at aimco to provide that kind of housing.

Expert Guest

And I think our industry can feel very proud about what it does and again, imbued with the public interest and you know, a great public service and a great revenue and wealth opportunity as well.

Host

Yes.

Host

Amen, Jeff.

Host

Very well said.

Host

So I want, I want to thank you for joining me on the show today.

Host

I think there were some great insights you provided in what we know is a very compelling asset class.

Host

Even though there's some short term oversupply issues.

Host

Right.

Host

It is not systemic at all.

Host

And I like you, I'm convinced that workforce housing not only holds an important spot in overall affordability landscape.

Host

Right.

Host

To provide housing in that realm, but should deliver outstanding long term results.

Host

For investors as well.

Host

So thanks again, Jeff.

Host

Appreciate your time.

Expert Guest

Thank you.

Expert Guest

Bye bye.

Host

You're welcome back anytime, my friend.

Expert Guest

My pleasure.

Host

I hope today's show inspired you just a little bit, and I would like to thank my guests once again.

Host

I'm excited to bring you more episodes with interesting and informative experts to help you navigate your way to wealth and health.

Host

Thanks for listening to the Real Estate Wealth Podcast.

Host

The Real Estate Wealth Podcast is produced.

Expert Guest

By Truth Work Media.

Host

Our producer is Seth Creekmore with support from McKenna Smith.

Expert Guest

For show notes and more information about this podcast, visit edeloy.

Expert Guest

Com.

Host

For more information about CalCap Advisors, visit us at calcap.

Host

Com or follow us on Twitter at calcapadvisors.

Host

I'm your host, Ed Alloy, and thank you for listening.