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HostSo for these reasons and others like I was going to ask you still staying on sort of the build a rent product is a great, sustainable, long term, great product.
Expert GuestAbsolutely.
HostYou know, we're also seeing or hearing about either, to your point, both demographics.
HostThe younger sort of millennial Gen Z pre kids who maybe, well, either can't afford to buy a home because of the affordability issues or choose not to because they want flexibility.
HostAnd same for sort of the older baby boomer retirees who are like, you know what, we're going to sell our house in Phoenix.
HostWe got a nice little nest egg.
HostWe just want to rent from here on out.
HostWe're going to take Winnebago and tour the countryside.
HostRight?
Expert GuestBeautiful.
HostBeautiful.
HostAnd so I think for all those reasons, it is a product type that's very interesting.
Expert GuestYes.
HostLet's talk a little bit about operational efficiency technologies, some of the stuff you're doing at Yardy Matrix with your business intelligence and how that might help customers manage costs or increase some of their efficiencies.
HostWhat are you guys seeing on that?
Expert GuestYeah, so I'm going to separate this in sort of Yardy Systems, you know, because I'm a division of Yardy Systems.
Expert GuestYardi Systems is one of the largest property management software companies.
Expert GuestSoftware and services that help support people who own and manage commercial real estate.
Expert GuestAnd then I can talk about Matrix as a division of the company.
Expert GuestWe're a relatively small division of the company.
Expert GuestBut on the software side, the fact of the matter is that the requirement to reduce cost on an ongoing basis is critical.
Expert GuestCosts are, expenses have been increasing significantly, we hope and we do think that they're beginning to come down.
Expert GuestThe rate of growth is beginning to come down, but labor costs are up 20%, materials costs and supply costs are up, obviously insurance costs are up.
Expert GuestTaxes are still rising.
Expert GuestSo, you know, we track the expenses.
Expert GuestSo expenses have still been going up.
Expert GuestSo what happens when you want to provide a better customer experience that's less intrusive and you have expense pressures all over the place?
Expert GuestWell, you do adopt technology, right?
Expert GuestTechnology.
Expert GuestYou do that and so we have 40 modules that basically comprise every component of operating a multifamily property where you can basically have a foundation in the property management of record itself.
Expert GuestAnd then there's all these different modules that plug in from marketing to utility management, to procurement to insurance compliance and vendor management.
Expert GuestThere's a gazillion of them, but all of which is driving the expense down, providing still very positive customer experience and focusing your labor on things that are uniquely consumer facing.
Expert GuestThat's the issue is if you're going to have people focus them on actually having an impact, not on basically back end.
Expert GuestYeah, that has no value fundamentally to the customer experience.
Expert GuestAnd so a lot of the customer acquisition, lease management, even a lot of the maintenance activity is being the back end of that is all being automated, driving down costs.
Expert GuestNow also inside of those, the new development of artificial intelligence is basically being just driven into those existing products.
Expert GuestSo when it comes to procurement, there's like an AI bot that basically helps you buy stuff.
Expert GuestThere's a big, big move on the customer acquisition side where or the thing we call a chat iq, which is really a chat bot that has replaced a lot of the initial call center costs and yielded to the leasing professionals a high likelihood leasing person who actually needs to see somebody.
Expert GuestSo you can basically digitize the entire transaction for people who just don't want to see somebody and are willing to lease completely.
Expert GuestAnd we can verify their identity, we can take payments, you can do a virtual tour, you can do all the infrastructure, but there are people who actually want to see it and you can support them and that now you can increase the productivity of those leasing consultants and have fewer of them and have them more productive.
Expert GuestSo that's a big deal.
Expert GuestAnd it also enables, I would say, some marginal marketing sources that otherwise wouldn't be cost effective to suddenly become cost effective, which is, which is helping on the sort of general.
HostCan you explain what you mean by that?
Expert GuestWell, you know, look, there may be, let's say some websites, right?
Expert GuestSo let's.
Expert GuestThere's a range of SEO, PPC and there's a whole range of these different sort of marketing channels.
Expert GuestSo you may have a marketing channel which traditionally would have generated a lot of activity but very little yield, right?
Expert GuestAnd you'd say, look, I'm not going to advertise on that particular.
Expert GuestI may get an incremental one or two leases, but like all the crap I have to deal with to get to those one or two leases, the economics don't work, right?
Expert GuestBut if the chatbot's dealing with all of that sort of sorting through.
Expert GuestAnd now you're only seeing the few people on site that actually will lease.
Expert GuestSuddenly that marketing source, that marketing channel becomes economically viable where before it wasn't.
Expert GuestSo you're accessing more incremental demand because you're not paying the cost associated with the labor cost of clogging your pipeline to get, to get to the leases that you actually need.
Expert GuestAnd that gets rippling through every aspect of all the products.
Expert GuestRight.
Expert GuestUtility management, procurement and marketing and also moving all the payments.
Expert GuestSo it's recurring revenue that's automated, that's already done.
Expert GuestSo all that stuff is, you really have to drive the cost down.
Expert GuestBut just, you know, Fred Smith at FedEx said this 40 years ago, as there's nothing new under the sun, you automate the routine, you humanize the exception.
Expert GuestThat's what this is all about.
Expert GuestSo when there is a problem, you get to a real person who can solve it, be empathetic, provide great service.
Expert GuestBut all the, all the routine stuff should all be automated away.
Expert GuestAnd remember also it's harder to hire people in this labor market.
Expert GuestHarder to hire, harder to train.
Expert GuestYou got to have a better technology backbone.
Expert GuestAnd the way the world works now is it's variable priced.
Expert GuestOkay.
Expert GuestSo back in my day when I was running deals, we had large fixed cost systems.
Expert GuestNow they're all variable costs, variable cost systems.
Expert GuestRight.
Expert GuestSo it ups, it moves up and down with your scale as an entity.
Expert GuestSo because basically YARDI is the backend infrastructure that's bearing the sort of like fixed cost to keep the infrastructure up in place.
Expert GuestSo you as an owner, operator or as a manager, you're only paying on a variable cost basis tied to your revenue stream.
Expert GuestIt's a much better, much better sort of model.
HostYes, we always joke, the yardi, let me guess, $2.50 per unit, whatever.
Expert GuestRight, right, right, right.
HostBut it's a very good model and it works and we module after module.
Expert GuestYes, it adds a lot of value.
Expert GuestYeah.
Expert GuestAnd again Yardy matrix is the market intel module of Yardy.
Expert GuestAnd so we are also working on AI initiatives in our, you know, in our organization that are separate from what's going on elsewhere.
HostRight.
Expert GuestBut again my whole system, my whole purpose for being is to save our clients time, help them make better decisions more quickly by doing a lot of the, the monotonous labor intensive work so that you as an investor are only focused on the things where you add value.
Expert GuestAnd a lot of the routine stuff is basically done for you.
Expert GuestAnd that's why?
Expert GuestFundamentally, you trade money in order to get back time.
Expert GuestIt's a basic trade, and it only works because I'm at scale and I can do things at scale, and then I can basically make an economic trade for my labor cost is less than your labor cost.
Expert GuestAnd that's how the economics work.
HostYeah, no, makes perfect sense.
Expert GuestYeah.
Expert GuestMost things do if they work.
HostYeah.
HostLet's talk a little bit about, speaking of investors, about the investor side and capital flows into the business.
Expert GuestYou bet.
HostBecause we've been hearing for a long time that there's so much capital for multifamily on the sidelines.
HostRight.
HostSitting on the sidelines.
HostSitting on the sidelines.
HostI mean, are you seeing.
HostBecause you mentioned earlier, and we're seeing it ourselves, you know, more movement.
HostRight.
HostMore deals coming into play, starting to come in.
Expert GuestYeah, yeah.
HostLike, for example, Jeff, we looked at a deal in Vegas a couple of weeks ago.
HostThey had 30 offers on this deal.
Host30 offers, which I'm like, wow, exactly 15.
HostBest and final, by the way.
Expert GuestOkay.
Expert GuestWell, there's a fair amount of interest out there.
HostSo there's a fair amount of that was in Las Vegas.
Expert GuestRight.
HostSo I'm wondering what you're seeing, you know, is money, obviously there's a lot of money sitting on the sidelines still.
HostWhat's it going to take for that money to move?
HostYou know, and kind of, where do you see that?
HostWhere do you see the investment demand?
HostI mean, we know workforce housing is a great niche within the world of multifamily.
HostYou know, where do you see investor interest there?
HostAnd kind of where do you think we are at this point?
Expert GuestSo I'll call it the fundamental conundrum is this.
Expert GuestOkay.
Expert GuestIt's very hard for people to buy below their debt cost.
Expert GuestRight.
Expert GuestBecause you actually then have to.
Expert GuestYou've got negative leverage, and you got to believe that you're going to get rent growth to get you out of that.
Expert GuestAnd again, the short rate is five.
Expert GuestOkay.
Expert GuestTech that.
Expert GuestSo you're talking about eight.
Expert GuestOkay.
Expert GuestOr seven or eight.
Expert GuestThe long rate is now 4.3.
HostPick four five this morning.
Expert GuestFour, five.
Expert GuestSo, hey, put 100 at three and a half.
Expert GuestIt all worked.
Expert GuestOkay.
Expert GuestAt four, four, four, five, it doesn't quite work.
Expert GuestOkay.
Expert GuestBecause you put 175 basis points to 200 basis points on that for a commercial mortgage.
Expert GuestRight?
Expert GuestYes.
Expert GuestRemember, the residential mortgage is probably another 100 basis points on top of that for residential mortgages.
HostYep, that's right.
Expert GuestSo when you look at that, residential.
HostHomeowners aren't buying A cap rate.
HostSo that's less important.
Expert GuestTrue, true.
Expert GuestBut they still have their own financing issues.
Expert GuestSo when you, when you look at that now, you're like, it's really hard to make the deals work unless you're getting an assumable loan.
Expert GuestOkay.
Expert GuestBecause they're still out there.
Expert GuestOkay.
Expert GuestAnd then you can basically close the bid, ask spread.
Expert GuestOkay.
Expert GuestSo that's, that's an opportunity.
Expert GuestYou like a market in the Midwest, get a loan that still has eight years to run on it and it was at 3%.
Expert GuestOkay.
Expert GuestYou could make that.
HostThat typically is going to require a lot more equity.
HostRight.
Expert GuestThere's equity in there.
Expert GuestThere could be also some other fees and assumption fees.
Expert GuestSo again, it's got its own issues or you have to have such level of conviction or your capital cost has to be low enough that you can tolerate that negative leverage and hope to basically earn your way out of it.
Expert GuestAnd you've got to project some kind of rent pop probably in 26, 27, back in the 20 in order to sort of like make it all work.
Expert GuestOkay.
HostYes.
Expert GuestOr somebody's got to take a haircut.
Expert GuestRight.
Expert GuestIn order to make this thing work.
Expert GuestRight.
Expert GuestSomebody.
Expert GuestSomething's got to work here.
Expert GuestOkay.
Expert GuestAnd so the reason you don't see transactions like supercharged is like it's really hard to line up all of those unless, you know.
Expert GuestSo the deals that are getting done tend to be somebody who's got a liquidity issue that they've got to resolve.
HostOkay.
HostAnd they'll sell at the market price today.
HostThat.
HostRight.
Expert GuestIn order.
HostWhich is essentially a cap rate that's going to equal the tenure plus the spread.
Expert GuestRight.
Expert GuestI mean, it's a math problem.
Expert GuestRight.
Expert GuestLike.
HostYes.
Expert GuestSo, so, so you know.
Expert GuestYes.
Expert GuestYou're getting transactions because, you know, somebody's got an issue that they have to resolve and they're willing to basically take the haircut.
Expert GuestIt's easier if they bought the thing in 20, 20, 15, 2016, they had a big run up in value and they say, ah, well, you know what, I didn't make as much money off the peak.
Expert GuestBut hail, we hit our numbers, things worked out okay.
Expert GuestAnd we live to fight another day.
Expert GuestBoom.
HostYeah.
HostAnd now I can buy something at a more sane value going forward and.
Expert GuestExactly.
Expert GuestSo I'm not saying that that's why our deal is getting done.
Expert GuestSure.
Expert GuestBut the fact of the matter is the peak of 2022 is not going to happen.
Expert GuestThe numbers don't line up there.
Expert GuestYou haven't had enough rent growth since 2022.
Expert GuestTo negate the sort of reduction in values on the other side.
Expert GuestOkay, so, so I would say that's what I'm saying is like there's a stress play of those deals bought at the peak.
Expert GuestWe're like, I don't know how it's going to, I don't know how that's going to get resolved.
Expert GuestOkay.
Expert GuestSo somebody's got to take a haircut.
Expert GuestAgain, deals bought earlier or pre Covid, they won't make as much money as they could have, but okay, they'll do.
Expert GuestOkay.
Expert GuestAll right.
Expert GuestAnd so those deals will sort of move forward.
Expert GuestLook, there's plenty of capital that would like to come off the sidelines, but obviously there's a return expectation and it is reset at the new cost of capital.
HostWell, and the buyer now is going to have to make assumptions to your point on rent growth to probably make it work.
HostAnd.
HostOr what's my exit cap rate which I'm hearing guys are exiting at the.
HostGoing in or less.
Expert GuestOkay.
HostIn the old days we don't.
Expert GuestGoing in.
HostYeah, yeah.
HostGoing in we were adding 10 basis points a year for hold.
HostRight.
HostIf we held something seven years, we'd add 70bps to what we were going in.
HostAnd that was our exit.
Expert GuestThat's right.
HostBut now you do that today.
HostIt doesn't work.
Expert GuestThat's right.
Expert GuestSo you have to buy anything.
Expert GuestYou have to buy anything.
Expert GuestSo you have to play around with someone's assumptions.
Expert GuestBut you also have to retain the essence of reality.
Expert GuestRight.
Expert GuestYou can't otherwise you're buying into a new problem.
HostCorrect.
Expert GuestThat doesn't work.
Expert GuestAnd when I think about long term, I just don't see a ten year anywhere below three and a half.
Expert GuestLike I just don't see it.
Expert GuestI don't see how you get.
Expert GuestSo then I don't see.
Expert GuestTherefore I don't see a mortgage rate on a ten year anything below five and a quarter ever.
Expert GuestLike Again, for a number of periods of time.
Expert GuestI just don't see that happening.
HostWhich historically that's probably right.
HostIn the last 30 years, that's where it's been.
Expert GuestWell, again let's say you get 2% ish inflation.
Expert GuestRight.
Expert GuestAnd then 100 basis points of real yield on the 10 year.
Expert GuestOkay.
Expert GuestIt sort of works.
Expert GuestAnd you need to get the short rate down to about two and a half with a three and a half to sort of get.
Expert GuestHave an upward sloping yield curve where we're sort of like that's, that's normal.
Expert GuestIsh.
Expert GuestOkay.
Expert GuestNow we're not there and we Were getting close.
Expert GuestWe were at a 3, 6 for a moment, for a hot minute, and then it ran away.
Expert GuestOkay.
HostYeah.
Expert GuestAnd that's really based upon.
Expert GuestOkay.
Expert GuestYou know, the election, by the way, interest rates started to move before the election, but it was based upon an understanding that neither candidate was going to do anything about the deficit and the amount of debt that's out there.
Expert GuestAnd that debt has to get either monetized or it has to have a higher yield.
Expert GuestRight.
Expert GuestAnd anything I'm seeing on inflation, inflation does look like it's coming into that two, two and a half percent handle where it can work.
Expert GuestAnd we are seeing that in a reduction in the quits rate, a movement lower in the eci, which is the employment cost index.
Expert GuestSo all these numbers are sort of lining up.
Expert GuestWe're seeing some level of productivity increases and unit labor costs being 2ish, maybe sub 2%.
Expert GuestSo all that, you know, from an inflation standpoint, I can see two to two and a half percent because we have some deglobalization going on, reconfiguration of supply chains.
Expert GuestThat's kind of inflationary.
Expert GuestBut we are seeing out of China goods deflation like crazy.
Expert GuestSo that's helping the task move a little easier.
Expert GuestOkay.
Expert GuestAnyway, like, so when we talk about rates, that's, this is the conundrum of like trying to get all this stuff to line out again.
Expert GuestSpecial situations, yes.
Expert GuestBroad based, you know, happy days are here again.
Expert GuestIt's hard to see that sort of work its way out.
Expert GuestBut again, you look forward past the supply surge.
Expert GuestRight.
Expert GuestYou do see the ability to have consistent rent growth at 4 to 5%, 3 to 5%.
Expert GuestAgain, historically, by the way, if you got one point over inflation on rents and expenses grew at 2, 3%, everything worked, all the numbers worked.
Expert GuestRight.
Expert GuestAnd that is the historic norm, one point over inflation.
Expert GuestThat's where I learned for Renko.
Expert GuestI learned at the knee of Terry Considine, a great investor.
Expert GuestHe taught me everything I know about multifamily real estate.
Expert GuestHe said that's the way the world works.
Expert GuestYou just have to like.
Expert GuestAnd if you get anything above that, you are blessed.
HostAnd we got well above it for many years.
Expert GuestRight.
Expert GuestSo anything above a three, you're, you're, you're in fact city.
Expert GuestOkay.
Expert GuestYou know, that's amazing.
Expert GuestAnd again, you got to keep your expenses so that your NOI, you get operating leverage.
Expert GuestSo you get a 5% NOI increase and then you lever that up, you know, at 65% leverage, you're at a 15 ROE boom.
Expert GuestEverything works.
HostAnd if cap rates compress, then it's really a home run home.
Expert GuestRight.
Expert GuestYou go from everything works to a home run.
Expert GuestRight.
Expert GuestAnd so that's.
Expert GuestBut even if cap rates don't compress, if you hit those numbers, you're still going to do fine.
HostYeah.
HostIt'll be historically the way it was meant to be.
HostYou operate a property.
HostRight.
HostAnd you've done very well.
Expert GuestRight.
Expert GuestYou get rich slowly.
Expert GuestI mean, remember, multifamily real estate was not designed to get rich quick.
Expert GuestNo.
Expert GuestIt was to get rich slowly.
HostI call this business my get rich slow scheme.
HostThat's what.
Expert GuestRight.
HostI want to write a book called the Get Rich Slow Scheme.
HostIt's just no one will lie because everyone wants to get rich quick.
HostRight.
Expert GuestThese market conditions have been ahistoric.
Expert GuestOkay.
Expert GuestBoth in terms of capital market costs coming down as well as rent growth that has been outside of the historic norms.
HostYes, no question.
HostBut to your earlier statements, you still think sort of in spite of some of these, we're kind of in between in many ways, right?
HostWhat you're saying?
Expert GuestYes.
HostBut in spite of that, you feel like now is a good time to buy even though there's a little bit of pain in some of these markets with oversupply.
HostYeah, rent's flattening, maybe rent's going down.
Expert GuestI mean, I think you just have.
Expert GuestI think you have to underwrite reality and say, look, yes, if I'm going to buy in Charlotte and Raleigh, Atlanta, Dallas, these are great economies, business friendly economies.
Expert GuestThey're going to grow.
Expert GuestThey've been dynamic.
Expert GuestI actually did the data back 50 years just to look at population growth and supply response.
Expert GuestAnd they are more cyclical in nature, but the cyclical is with an upward trend.
Expert GuestOkay.
Expert GuestIt's just that this particular cycle, the rent pop was big, the supply pop was big, and now the downside's big.
Expert GuestBut they've always, always had had supply responses that come in waves.
Expert GuestJust the ways haven't been that big, but they've always done well because the economies and the public policy consensus around growth have been solidified.
Expert GuestThose cities have grown, they've expanded.
Expert GuestRight.
Expert GuestHeck, Dallas is like up to the white, up to the Oklahoma border now.
Expert GuestOkay.
Expert GuestAnd quite frankly a little bit beyond it.
Expert GuestAnd they have consistent public policy consensus around growth.
Expert GuestThey're making infrastructure investments in their areas.
Expert GuestThey can handle the population growth.
Expert GuestThe key thing that I look for, and we've done analysis around it, is when the public policy consensus on growth breaks and when the infrastructure investment stops, then you can see that within 10 years that city is gonna blow up, right?
Expert GuestBecause it can't handle.
Expert GuestAnd then everything's gonna be about allocating scarcity as opposed to facilitating abundance flat out.
Expert GuestAnd so those are the.
Expert GuestAgain, growth requires a public policy and private market consensus, right?
Expert GuestThat the community wants to grow.
Expert GuestOnce it decides that it doesn't want to grow, then it's allocating scarcity.
Expert GuestAnd that usually is not a good place for multifamily investors over the long run.
Expert GuestFor a short period of time, sure, it's great.
Expert GuestWhat I have seen again and again and again is while you can make money in a society, community that allocates scarcity, okay?
Expert GuestAt some point in time, the community is going to revolt, particularly around housing, and say, we don't think it's appropriate from a public policy consensus for people to make money on housing, forgetting that housing facilitates growth and is a piece of infrastructure.
Expert GuestThat's why it works.
Expert GuestThat's why the US is the largest and best and most liquid housing asset class in the world, which is why it attracts a tremendous amount of foreign capital.
Expert GuestI deal with folks from Europe, Canada, South America, Asia.
Expert GuestThey're investing in the US multifamily because it is a deep asset type.
Expert GuestAnd you can't invest in this kind of asset type in many places around the world.
HostAnd especially with the kind of financing.
Expert GuestYou can get, it is just not available at scale to allocate the kind of capital that can be allocated, which is where you have Australian money, you have Korean money, you have Japanese money.
Expert GuestFor a time, you had Chinese money, you have European capital, you have Middle Eastern capital, you have an amazing amount of Canadian capital all focused on U.S.
Expert Guestmultifamily in addition to the normal amount of U.S.
Expert Guestdomestic capital.
Expert GuestIt is a very deep capital market.
HostAnd the GSEs provide such a stable source of financing that no other countries really have.
Expert GuestRight?
Expert GuestAnd the GSEs have chosen to use it wisely.
Expert GuestNow, I will tell you, just to be honest, between you and me and the fence post, the thing that gave me the biggest scare, the biggest scare was the proposals that were floating around, which we worked on and combated, was to basically attach rent control to GSE financing.
Expert GuestIt was that close.
Expert GuestDon't kid yourself.
HostWell, and depending on the administration who won last night, it could have been even closer.
Expert GuestIt was that close.
Expert GuestThe current, when we were.
Expert GuestWhen they.
Expert GuestAnd we knew, I knew in 20, mid 23, all the RFIs started coming out for the administration from the White House, from the fhfa, they were all pushing to basically do something where they could run on fixing, quote, unquote, housing.
HostYes.
HostAnd they could use the lever of the GSEs, which is a big one.
Expert GuestBecause 60% of multifamily to the ever living credit of the NMHC and NAA, they were able to basically beat that back.
Expert GuestAnd there was some acceptance on fee structures and disclosure, which was fine.
Expert GuestRight.
Expert GuestYou know, of all the things that could have happened, the actual proposals that came out of the administration were the least bad thing.
Expert GuestAnd if you recall, Harris and Biden talked about rent control and they tied it to depreciation.
Expert GuestThat really was a gar.
Expert GuestThat was a.
Expert GuestThat was.
Expert GuestThat was not a serious proposal.
Expert GuestThat honestly, that was a press release and everybody knew it and they knew it.
Expert GuestThe stake through the heart, and they did not need a law to do it, was to tie rent control to GSE financing.
Expert GuestThere's nothing that prevents that from happening.
HostYeah.
HostWell, and having said that, they set the precedent during COVID as you know, by start starting to encroach and saying, okay, now you have to offer an additional 30 days before you evict and.
HostRight.
HostSo.
HostAnd that never went away.
Expert GuestRight.
HostBy the way, that's still in play because I'm a big user of GSE capital.
HostSo it does scare me because they have a lot of power and leverage and with a swipe of a pen.
HostRight.
HostCan instant policies.
Expert GuestYeah.
Expert GuestSo my point is public policy does matter in multifamily.
Expert GuestSo you are.
Expert GuestSo you have a modicum of exposure.
Expert GuestIt is a modicum.
Expert GuestIt could be a lot worse other ways.
Expert GuestBut that was a close call.
HostThat.
Expert GuestThat was a close call.
Expert GuestAnd it's bad public policy.
Expert GuestIt's bad for the renters.
Expert GuestIt's bad long term.
Expert GuestIt's just every possible way you can imagine.
Expert GuestIt's just horrible.
HostSo, yes, I know you're preaching.
Expert GuestYeah.
HostAnd so thank you for working and beating back that initiative.
Expert GuestI had a very small.
Expert GuestI had a very small role to play.
Expert GuestMostly was the NMHC and na.
Expert GuestThey did an amazing job.
Expert GuestSo as your members of those organizations, your contributions were well spent.
HostYeah, no, they always do.
Expert GuestBy the way, I didn't hear what happened to Prop 33 in California.
Expert GuestI haven't checked that.
HostIt got defeated by a lot.
Expert GuestWow.
HostThe last count was about 60.
Expert Guest40.
HostYes.
Expert GuestWow.
HostWell, what do you know that means correct sanity in California, which is an insane place, as you know.
Expert GuestOkay.
HostAnd a bipartisan sanity.
HostRight.
HostSo that means a lot of renters themselves realize there was not a policy.
HostIt's bad again.
Expert GuestIt's a It's a supply.
Expert GuestIt fundamentally is adding supply.
Expert GuestThat's, that's really the issue.
Expert GuestAnd I'm thrilled that, that the voters of California.
HostYeah.
HostNow as am I, because you know, as California goes, some of the crazy ideas spread.
Expert GuestYeah.
HostAnd so I don't own anything here by choice other than the office building I'm sitting in.
Expert GuestYes.
HostBut I know other city states were looking at Prop 33.
Expert GuestYeah.
HostLet's see if it passes all horrible.
Expert GuestOkay.
HostYeah, so it's all good.
HostSo listen Jeff, we're bumping up on just over an hour here, so I think we probably need to wrap.
HostBut I guess one, one sort of final question.
HostIf you could sort of look in your crystal ball in the multifamily industry and specifically, you know, kind of workforce housing, now that we've had really a historic President Trump getting elected last night.
HostAgain, it was an unprecedented event.
HostI mean where do you kind of see, where do you see the industry playing out if you had a crystal ball over the next say five or ten years?
Expert GuestWell, fundamentally I love multifamily.
Expert GuestI've been around it 20 years.
Expert GuestI've seen it, how it grows.
Expert GuestI'm very optimistic about it as both for meeting a consumer need and as an investable class.
Expert GuestThere's not a, it's a false trade off to say you can't do both.
Expert GuestI do believe that you have to look, you have to really look past the next year, year and a half of new supply being delivered.
Expert GuestOkay.
Expert GuestSo let's, let's look past that because there will be short term pain in these 20 markets as this stuff gets absorbed.
Expert GuestThere's no question.
Expert GuestBut let's look beyond that.
Expert GuestRight.
Expert GuestMost folks are looking into a five to ten year horizon.
Expert GuestOkay.
Expert GuestThere we still haven't resolved the housing shortage, hasn't been resolved.
Expert GuestIf interest rates stay as they are, then it's unlikely you're going to have a boon of single family sales, which means that retention in multifamily will still tend to be pretty good.
Expert GuestOkay.
Expert GuestSo all and again going past 27, a lot of deals don't work in terms of development.
Expert GuestOkay.
Expert GuestNow to the extent that there is a true radical change in local zoning permitting and requirements, and that could happen.
Expert GuestOkay.
Expert GuestBut that will take time.
Expert GuestI continue to see the ability to have rent growth in excess of inflation, 1 to 3% in excess of inflation.
Expert GuestThat's rather durable.
Expert GuestRight.
Expert GuestRemember, if housing costs are 30 ish percent or 35% of incomes, if you have modest 3% wage growth, you can easily have 3 4% rent growth and not crowd out the rest of the consumer budget.
Expert GuestSo I view that as absolutely sustainable and we've seen it before.
Expert GuestSo the economics of the fundamentals all work in terms of it being an investable class where both the revenue and the expense structure are an operating basis can work where unless there's a radical change in planning and zoning policy and even if it did, it would take five to seven years to work its way through the development cycle.
HostYes.
Expert GuestSo I continue to think that this is a.
Expert GuestYou can continue to see rent growth.
Expert GuestI do believe in dynamic economies that have a consensus for growth.
Expert GuestI believe in a lot of smaller markets.
Expert GuestI believe in the Midwest.
Expert GuestI'm looking at demographic changes, deglobalization, really the build out of the energy infrastructure all along the Gulf coast and the growth of the petrochemical industry and manufacturing.
Expert GuestThey won't be as labor intensive as maybe some people would hope.
Expert GuestBut there's a radical amount of reindustrialization that's going to occur.
Expert GuestIt starts with the oil and gas industry, goes into petrochemicals, goes into plastics and follows from there.
Expert GuestSo fundamentally I believe in, you know, kind of the Southeast Texas, the Mountain west and to a certain extent smaller cities in those areas because they will continue to grow at the margin.
Expert GuestYou know, among the major kind of, you know, global centers are we call our core cities.
Expert GuestThat will depend upon the level of commitment that they have to re energizing growth in their metropolitan areas.
Expert GuestThey're going to have to get control of their public safety issues first.
Expert GuestSecurity always comes first.
Expert GuestThen they're going to have to sort of actually encourage business to be there.
Expert GuestI think New York has a bit of a leg up in that regard.
Expert GuestBoston's not so bad, Chicago's.
HostI think San Francisco and Oakland need a little help in that regard.
Expert GuestAnd that really is just are there enough.
Expert GuestI grew up in New York in the 70s and things got really bad before there was a public policy consensus around that growth was desirable.
Expert GuestI don't think maybe California is beginning down that road and there may be some great opportunities to buy because remember, fortunes were made in New York City right around the late 70s, early 80s when the public policy consensus turned.
Expert GuestNow I can't tell you whether that condition is the same in California or in Seattle or in Portland, Oregon.
Expert GuestBut I can tell you is local investors who are clued into their local economies and can see that inflection point and then can invest into it will have legendary wealth opportunities.
Expert GuestBut it really same thing with Minneapolis.
Expert GuestWill these Cities fundamentally hit that inflection point where they want to grow again and are willing to do the things necessary to grow.
Expert GuestI don't know that.
Expert GuestI can't tell you that.
Expert GuestBut someone who is local and is close could do incredibly well in that investment strategy if they can pick that inflection point.
Expert GuestAnd that's where I'll leave with.
Expert GuestI'm optimistic about multifamily as an asset class and housing as an asset class.
Expert GuestIt's got tremendous opportunities, it's imbued with the public interest.
Expert GuestSo I think it's good for society, I think it's good for the investor.
Expert GuestAnd the best run organizations provide great services to their clients, create value.
Expert GuestAnd we've seen this again and again and again and again.
Expert GuestThat government run housing doesn't work.
Expert GuestDoesn't work.
Expert GuestThat the private sector has to be engaged and activated in order to provide housing for Americans.
Expert GuestAnd that's what I would argue with.
HostWhich is why what makes, you know, what we do, what I call affordable with a small, a compelling and great business.
HostYes, yes.
Expert GuestAnd providing high quality at low cost to provide clean, basic quality housing.
Expert GuestRight.
Expert GuestKeep the community safe, have high resident quality standards, expect people to pay their rent because it raises the standards within the community that people will meet their obligations and their responsibilities.
Expert GuestAnd it's incumbent upon the owner of the property to provide a safe, clean and stable housing environment.
Expert GuestAt AIMCO, I operated 100,000 workforce housing units.
Expert GuestAnd that was in my mind, the moral foundation of what we did.
Expert GuestOkay.
Expert GuestAnd we were able to energize our entire operations team around that mission.
Expert GuestOkay.
Expert GuestThat we provide something positive for the world.
Expert GuestWe expect our residents to meet their commitments and we commit ourselves to providing a great living environment for them to reach their potential.
Expert GuestAnd I'm very proud of what we did, what my team did at aimco to provide that kind of housing.
Expert GuestAnd I think our industry can feel very proud about what it does and again, imbued with the public interest and you know, a great public service and a great revenue and wealth opportunity as well.
HostYes.
HostAmen, Jeff.
HostVery well said.
HostSo I want, I want to thank you for joining me on the show today.
HostI think there were some great insights you provided in what we know is a very compelling asset class.
HostEven though there's some short term oversupply issues.
HostRight.
HostIt is not systemic at all.
HostAnd I like you, I'm convinced that workforce housing not only holds an important spot in overall affordability landscape.
HostRight.
HostTo provide housing in that realm, but should deliver outstanding long term results.
HostFor investors as well.
HostSo thanks again, Jeff.
HostAppreciate your time.
Expert GuestThank you.
Expert GuestBye bye.
HostYou're welcome back anytime, my friend.
Expert GuestMy pleasure.
HostI hope today's show inspired you just a little bit, and I would like to thank my guests once again.
HostI'm excited to bring you more episodes with interesting and informative experts to help you navigate your way to wealth and health.
HostThanks for listening to the Real Estate Wealth Podcast.
HostThe Real Estate Wealth Podcast is produced.
Expert GuestBy Truth Work Media.
HostOur producer is Seth Creekmore with support from McKenna Smith.
Expert GuestFor show notes and more information about this podcast, visit edeloy.
Expert GuestCom.
HostFor more information about CalCap Advisors, visit us at calcap.
HostCom or follow us on Twitter at calcapadvisors.
HostI'm your host, Ed Alloy, and thank you for listening.