Hey, welcome to the Fantasy Football Game Plan. Today we are talk talking player props for week two, who we think will excel and who's going to flop in week two. Lots of unders hitting in week one. Does that continue into week two? We did pretty well in week one and hitting our bets that we had on last week's episode. Quentin, can you review for us.

Yeah, so we end up giving out eight bets on last week's episode. We hit on six of them, and we also hit on our parlay. Overall we were plus 7.66 units. So if you bet $10 on every bet that we said you would've been up, $76. We did kind of just reflecting on some of the bets that we missed/, we missed on the Jameson Williams touchdown and the Spencer Rattler. Under on his completions and just kind of reviewing those, that game really didn't turn out to be the high scoring affair that we thought. And then I think for passing attempts, I'm gonna kind of lean

Yeah.

in the future because they're just so game script dependent. We saw New Orleans hang in there and actually like, kind of go in into hurry up mode, which boosted up the his attempts later in the game.

Yeah, he had 46 attempts in that game. I had no idea they were going to let him throw it 46 times. So there's no wonder that he ended up with over 18 and a half completions. They really let Rattler go.

they did. We saw a lot of unders hit last week across the NFL and you are already seeing lines being bet down, into week two. So if it does remain, then looks like the, public is kind of onto that already. But we've kind of a mix of overs and unders for this week's bets.

Which bet is going to kick it off for us? Who do you like?

Yeah, kicking off, we're gonna lean into what we did well last week and that was predicting rushing attempts. We really liked looking at the committee back fields and trying to identify a back that we like to be the clear lead. I wanna go right back to ETN. I really liked what I saw last week. For the Jacksonville lead back, he had 16 attempts in the last game, and his current line is at 13 and a half. That's a minus one 30 line, over at DraftKings, but there's also no tanks, B tank bigsby, so one less, uh,, mouth to defeat in that committee.

ETN is a great pick here. He is the back and I think this game stays fairly close. As long as it stays fairly close and Jacksonville's not playing from behind, then et t N's gonna keep getting the ball and have that and hit that over.

Yeah, I

Um.

that Jacksonville wants to keep a balanced approach to just try to have these longer drives and keep Joe Barone de March chase on the sidelines. But

Yeah.

Moving on from that one, do you have any rushing lines you're looking at?

so I like Jalen Hurtz. It started out at 15 and a half for his longest rush, and I really like that. Now it's down to 14 and a half. I still bet it at 14 and a half. He's only done this twice against a Steve Magnolia defense. I think in Kansas City. He's going to have a harder time running the ball than we saw last week. Last week he was the lead rusher on the team. Even out rushing Saquon Barkley, I believe. I don't think,

corrects this week.

yeah, that can't keep happening or the whole team's going to have a big meltdown. This is gonna be a little bit different in Kansas City and it's gonna be 92 degrees with. Chance of a thunderstorm. Kansas City should definitely have a plan for Jalen Hertz, if nothing else.

Yeah, and we saw them get beat on the ground, with Herbert's Legs last week. I think they're gonna be a lot more prepared for Jalen Hurts. I think they were a little surprised last week, but this one will not catch 'em off guard.

Yeah, they didn't think they needed to be prepared last week. I, I was very surprised with, the running that was happening in that game.

Yeah.

else do you have for us?

So the next one we're gonna go through is Trayvon Henderson. His line at the beginning of the week was over 31 and a half rushing yards. It's been bet up all the way up to 37 and a half. So you have a couple options here. You can either, either take 37 and a half, at minus one 13, or you can actually get positive value if you just bet 'em over 40. Plus 1 0 1.

Yeah, that's what I did. And the link in our notes is going to be for the, the over 40 at a 1 0 1. It it's good value going against the dolphins, the dolphins. Are, are just kind of rolling over right now. I like Trayvon Henderson. I don't think we saw enough of him last week. He only had 27 yards last week against the Raiders, but that game didn't really go the way that we thought it would. And maybe they get, you know, a little bit more on the ground, against the dolphins who have given up already.

England got down early in. That game against, Las Vegas. So I think with the lead, they will definitely lean into Trayvon Henderson. He was very explosive in his caries too. He only had five attempts for those 27 yards. So he really doesn't need a lot to get to those 40. The dolphins are still out with one of their key rushing, defenders too. Benito Jones. So he's not gonna be playing this week either.

What do you think about Keon Coleman under 45 and a half yards now? I think it's moved to 44 and a half, but. Do you still like it?

This is one of my favorite bets of the week because Keon Coleman's stat line ended up ridiculous on Sunday night, but they are not playing the Ravens this week. And Josh Allen is not gonna be pushed to throw for almost 300 yards in the fourth quarter alone. So if we look at Keon Coleman's success, breaking down, broken down by quarters, he had 95 of his 112 yards just in the fourth quarter. He is a big play wide receiver, so that's really how this bet loses. But he is not the consistent go-to. He is the guy they need to when they need a play and they're trying to come back, which I don't think they're gonna be in that mode against the jets. So I think their game plan's gonna be more about ball control, leaning more into the running game and using Shaki, and Keon Coleman will not be the feature target this week.

Yeah, I tend to agree, although the running situation's a little bit iffy right now with I. A cook showing up on the injury report with a hamstring injury, but luckily they got a couple other backs and they should still be trying to control that situation, and just run out this game. They don't wanna give Justin Fields too many options to run the ball,

Yeah.

gonna try to control it a little bit more. I, I agree. Coleman was used in that game when they needed to come back, and I don't see a situation where they're down 15 points again and need to come back.

I think he can, he can hit it on a big play, but that's about it.

Yeah. Touchdown props. Who's getting a touchdown?

Three last week, and we're kind of following a similar of a, heavy favorite, someone that's right on the line and then kind of a longer shot. So for our heavy favorite, I love Kyron Williams here in this spot against the Titans. The Rams should just lean into Kyron Williams and he had 18 of 19, running back Carries last week. He is that true Bell cow running back, and I think they're gonna put up some points. He's a best, one of the best bets to score a touchdown, on the road against the Titans.

Yeah, I, they do love him and I see him just running out the clock for the Rams trying to get through that game in Tennessee. How about Jamar Chase?

Yeah, at a minus one 30 price tag. It feels like we're getting a discount on Jamar Chase and we think about, he was almost automatic last season, so he had a game yesterday, last week. Only about like 27 yards and two catches, I think. But. I love that bounce back spot against the Jacksonville defense. And I also think with Burrow, burrow and Chase kind of have that relationship that they know what they need to like get back to normal and didn't work out last week. They're gonna try to fix it this week. Okay.

Yeah, we were all over them and this game in our DFS episode, and I think they bounced back. We can't have. Burrow and chase down after two weeks. They gotta get a little, you know, more back to average and closer to those season projections. So I do like Jamar Chase getting a touchdown this week, especially at minus 1 35. Got any long shots for touchdowns?

Yeah. The next one I wanted to bring up was Tyler Warren. I really liked what I saw from the rookie tight end in Indy, and we don't really know his true touchdown rate. The sports books are still trying to figure it out too, because he's only had one game under his belt, so we don't really know how often he's gonna be used. The thing that is very promising is just how much of a feature target he was in that offense and. The creativity in getting him involved. He was even used as a runner, in short yardage situations. So I can see them if they get down to the two yard line. They call up a play for a Tyler Warren handoff, and you have multiple ways for this bet to hit at a plus 2 35, price tag.

I do like this. I love his usage in Indianapolis and yeah, they, he is their secret weapon and how they're going to win. And I think they're pushed a little bit more to be more creative this week than they were against the Dolphins Last week. We saw, Michael Pittman being used a lot, and I think Denver's going to. Be able to cover Pitman and some of those wide receivers better, and they're going to have to look for the shorter, more creative options like Tyler Warren. What do we got for a parlay?

So we're going back, we're using the promo again on DraftKings, where, it's that ghost leg parlay. We just have to get two of these three bets for it to actually cash a plus 5 64 price tag. So if you put $10 on it, you'd be winning. 56. And 40 cents. So the three I'm going with are Russell Wilson under 223 and a half passing yards. This number just seems way off. Maybe they're using his career data, but this is not the Russell Wilson we've been watching past couple years. Had 168 yards last game against the commanders and he only, he had sub 50% accuracy. There's even potential, he gets benched in this game. You know, he throws a couple picks and I feel like day ball is kind of done with them already. I think you have a lot of room to spare in this matchup against the cowboys, especially if neighbors banged up at all.

Yeah, I have to agree. I, I wasn't real sure that Day Bowl was even going to name him the starting quarterback. After the game, he took a couple days to think about it and then said, no, I'm gonna go with Russell Wilson, but I think he's got a, you know, he's on the short leash right now and can get yanked at any moment. They were already talking. Before the game last week that we might see a little bit of Jackson Dart. We didn't, but I think we get, I think we do see him a little bit this week.

Yeah,

They've gotta get more creative.

They do, they they need something. Last week was terrible but the next be for this parlay is gonna be AJ Brown under 65 and a half. I think this is gonna be a popular over where people know AJ Brown's a very talented, wide receiver. He was did next to nothing last week, and they kind of want him to get back to normal. But honestly, I think he's still hurt. He had a lingering injury through training camp and he didn't look good last week. So there was a reason why he wasn't featured against that matchup on Thursday night. And I still think he's kind of hurt. He was just kind of running, go routes and pulling the coverage deeper for those down routes. And so I like 65 and a half, just seems like too tall. Even if he gets a couple passes this way, I don't think he clears his line.

Yeah, I don't either. And I agree. Something's definitely not okay with AJ Brown. This isn't like we were talking about, and Jamar Chase and Joe Burrow getting by. To average, they look good. They just weren't connecting and looked a little bit rusty. This is like AJ Brown is, you know, almost limping down the field and doesn't look like he's running at full speed. So, uh, I think there's something wrong. I agree. I'm on that one too. Who are we gonna finish off this parlay with?

And the last one is gonna be Kyler Murray over 26 and a half Rushing yards. So Kyler Murray is a quarterback that we've all been yelling at for years to scramble more. He always looks so good when he actually does decide to use his legs. But sometimes he just. not to scramble. And he said in the off season that he's like, I have to make a conscious effort. Like I'm watching these other quarterbacks, Jackson and Alan, win games by, running the ball. And I know I have that ability. This the best I felt. So he did come out last week and prove that too. He had seven rushes for 38 yards, and now he gets to go against one of the worst rushing defenses, and worst. Defensive fronts in the Carolina Panthers. So I like over 26 and a half Russian guards for Kyler.

That's my only concern here is that Carolina can't even get any pressure on him to make him run. But I will add in that Carolina did make Trevor Lawrence run last week. He had one rush that was over 10 yards. So if Carolina can make, Trevor run, he can probably make Kyler Murray run. 'cause Kyler Murray wants to run a little bit more than Trevor Lawrence.

Yeah, and so that is a plus 5 64 parlay. If you want to bet that. that the slip is in the notes as well.

That is a great parlay. Last week we didn't even need that ghost leg, so this week we might need that ghost leg on one of these if somebody gets kinda lucky. But I like all three of these, so I will definitely be betting that one again, like last week. So that was good. That's today's plan.

Yeah, follow Ray. Tell us your favorite play in the comments for this week.

And the show notes. Have all the links to all of these bets. Play smart, have fun, and see you next time.