You got a thread on the back of your hat.
Speaker AYou turn.
Speaker AYeah, it's right there.
Speaker AIt's from the higher center.
Speaker BYeah.
Speaker BWhat was that?
Speaker AThat's good.
Speaker BThe worst endorsement.
Speaker BYeah, that's good.
Speaker BYeah.
Speaker ARight?
Speaker BWe're not doing the clap in thing.
Speaker BNo, no.
Speaker BI refuse to respond to the clap.
Speaker AWelcome back to the number one financial literacy podcast in the world.
Speaker AThis is the higher standard.
Speaker ASitting next to me on my left is my partner in crime, Christopher Nahibi.
Speaker BYeah.
Speaker BAnd more energy this time.
Speaker AI got.
Speaker AI got some listeners taking shots.
Speaker BWho?
Speaker BYou.
Speaker BAnd me.
Speaker BAnd me.
Speaker AYou.
Speaker BFor what?
Speaker BOh, yeah, I was.
Speaker BYeah.
Speaker BOkay, that's valid criticism.
Speaker BTwice.
Speaker BYeah, I was.
Speaker AThey're like.
Speaker BI was tired the last show.
Speaker BYeah, that's true.
Speaker AThey came at me.
Speaker AThey're like, it's my job to provide you with energy drinks.
Speaker BI've had.
Speaker BThis is my second one tonight, so.
Speaker BYeah, I'm gonna be gassed.
Speaker AYeah.
Speaker BOkay.
Speaker BWell, yeah, sitting next to me on my right is my partner in time, the one and only Sayed Omar.
Speaker AThank you, my man.
Speaker AAnd sitting behind the ones and twos, we have nobody.
Speaker ASo Jerome Powell did some things.
Speaker BLook, I know there's a lot of people listening to the show who do not care about Jerome Powell, okay?
Speaker BSo let me just come out and address the elephant in the room, not you.
Speaker BSorry.
Speaker BJust to be clear, what I want to address is.
Speaker BLook, I don't care about politics either.
Speaker BI really don't.
Speaker BAnd I know that the show sounds really political.
Speaker BI know that we talk a lot about this stuff.
Speaker BFrom time to time, it's because it's having an obvious and clear impact on the economy.
Speaker BAnd for those of you who are like, chris, I don't care about Jerome Powell.
Speaker BI want to know how to make money.
Speaker BOkay, well, this is how you do it, all right?
Speaker BYou got to understand the zeitgeist, the ether, baby.
Speaker BAll right?
Speaker BYou got to pay attention to this stuff.
Speaker BAnd for those of you who say, I don't care.
Speaker BOkay, look, dude, you are missing data points which are critical for your decision making.
Speaker BLet me give you an example.
Speaker BYes.
Speaker BOkay.
Speaker BBecause I know you want one site.
Speaker BBecause you're looking at me.
Speaker BI want one eyes.
Speaker AGive me the example.
Speaker BAll right, look, right out the gate.
Speaker BLet's just say a week and a half ago, you were like, I'm going to buy some Nvidia stock.
Speaker AYeah, right.
Speaker AYou know, I mean, it's part of the Mag 7.
Speaker BSounds like a good stock.
Speaker AI mean, it was propping up the entire stock market for a very long Time.
Speaker BYeah.
Speaker BTheir stock had a really bad day when tariffs were on the table.
Speaker AAnd how would you have known that?
Speaker BYou wouldn't have known that.
Speaker BIf you aren't listening to the political zeitgeist, you aren't paying attention to Jerome Powell.
Speaker BAnd Jerome Powell did some things today which I think could have reasonably be anticipated.
Speaker BAnd we're going to talk about those things later on the show that you would, that you would expect it would have traded impacted trading activity.
Speaker BAnd guess what?
Speaker BToday was a not so great day in the markets.
Speaker BAnd just so you know, Today is Wednesday, April 16th.
Speaker AApril 16th.
Speaker AYes.
Speaker BAt a solid 10:50.
Speaker A10 days away.
Speaker A4:00pm 10 days away from my boy's birthday.
Speaker BShout out to a room.
Speaker ANo, My son, my boy.
Speaker BNo, I know.
Speaker BI was.
Speaker AOh, the can pop.
Speaker BIt's not always about you.
Speaker AIt's about me.
Speaker BIt's not.
Speaker BAdam's turning 788-999.
Speaker BJesus.
Speaker AI know.
Speaker AThis is a big one.
Speaker AThe next one's two digits.
Speaker BYeah.
Speaker AI mean, I'm officially old.
Speaker AYeah.
Speaker AI don't have a little boy anymore.
Speaker AI have a boy.
Speaker AI have a full on boy.
Speaker BYou still have great features, color in your beard.
Speaker AYeah.
Speaker BLike you're not full on gray.
Speaker BLike I'm basically like Moses.
Speaker AI know.
Speaker ANo, it's.
Speaker ASome areas are so white that when I shave it down or trim it down too low, it just looks like I don't have a beard.
Speaker BYeah, that happens.
Speaker ATerrible.
Speaker BI don't know why I have like the evil Marvel character villain facial hair.
Speaker AYou do?
Speaker AYeah.
Speaker BPeople like, do you color it like that?
Speaker BLike, why would I color it like this?
Speaker AIs that intentional?
Speaker ANo, it looks like there's a rhythm to it.
Speaker BIt's not.
Speaker BThat's also weird.
Speaker BIt's like, why doesn't my facial hair go lopsided?
Speaker BLike why is one side gray and the other side like not.
Speaker BI don't understand the evenness of it all.
Speaker ASo one more thing to get into and why you'd want to also listen to Jerome Powell.
Speaker AAnother example.
Speaker AOkay.
Speaker AInstead of listening, instead of listening to all these other financial gurus that are online, right.
Speaker AThese influencers, if you will.
Speaker AI mean, you're already here.
Speaker BAre they really influencing?
Speaker AI hope not.
Speaker AYou know, but if somebody that's as plugged in as Jerome Powell is going to sit in front of at a symposium or wherever he's at in Chicago, right.
Speaker AAnd he's telling you that there's a lot of uncertainty.
Speaker AHe's got all the data.
Speaker AHe's got.
Speaker BHis job is to, is to Be certain.
Speaker BLiterally the uncertainty.
Speaker AHis job is to have the data presented to him.
Speaker AHe gets all the data and he's.
Speaker BTelling you, excuse me, I would like more data.
Speaker AYeah, yeah.
Speaker BThank you.
Speaker AEverything.
Speaker AEverything I do is dependent on the data.
Speaker AThat's what he's saying.
Speaker AAnd guess what?
Speaker AAnd he's saying that I don't know where this goes.
Speaker BYeah, he was very clear about that today.
Speaker BBut let's pause there.
Speaker BSo Powell's real audience, just to be clear, is not the public, it's the market.
Speaker BAll right.
Speaker BThat's who he's really talking to when he does these things.
Speaker BYou know, so if you think he's coming out saying these things because he's trying to make you feel good.
Speaker BNo, it's not you.
Speaker BIt's the market.
Speaker BRight.
Speaker BThe market moves based on the stuff that he says.
Speaker BAnd he knows it.
Speaker BAnd frankly, our president, same thing.
Speaker AAnd he's doubling down on things that he said maybe at his last post game press conference to make sure that everyone realizes or he wants people to believe that.
Speaker ANo, guys, jobs are still good.
Speaker BYeah.
Speaker BYou ever heard the expression fed speak?
Speaker AYeah, Fed speak.
Speaker BHear that a lot.
Speaker BOh, the Fed's doing their Fed speak again.
Speaker AYeah.
Speaker BWe've highlighted on the show the Fed will often talk about what's going on in their closed door meetings with a repeated script that just has certain words pivoted out.
Speaker BWell, they speak in this.
Speaker BFed speak this language on purpose because phrases like waiting for greater clarity, they're tactical.
Speaker BThey're being strategic about what they're trying to say.
Speaker BThey buy time while keeping the markets guessing.
Speaker BHe's intentionally keeping it ambiguous.
Speaker ARight.
Speaker BGreat example.
Speaker BSay nine out on a date.
Speaker BYou're my girlfriend.
Speaker AOkay.
Speaker AOkay.
Speaker AIn this example, and I say side.
Speaker BWe'Ve been dating for a while.
Speaker BI just want to know.
Speaker AYeah.
Speaker BAre we gonna take this the next step to the next step.
Speaker AAnd I say, you know, I really.
Speaker AI really gotta see where this goes.
Speaker BYeah, we'll see where it goes.
Speaker AYeah.
Speaker AYeah.
Speaker AI mean, the night is still young.
Speaker BWe'll see what happens.
Speaker AI'm not gonna promise anything, but I'm.
Speaker BNot gonna not promise anything either.
Speaker ARight.
Speaker ASo why would I close the opportunity?
Speaker AExactly.
Speaker BYou know, I gotta.
Speaker AHe got.
Speaker ASo if in for Jerome's Powell's sake, he's gonna leave the options.
Speaker AOh, he's always going to give himself three options.
Speaker AOkay.
Speaker AEven though one of the options hasn't been spoken about a lot lately, but technically speaking, it's still there.
Speaker ARaising rates.
Speaker BYeah.
Speaker AHey, I could be crazy.
Speaker AI might do that.
Speaker ABut I'm probably not.
Speaker BOh, my God.
Speaker BCan you imagine the market?
Speaker AYeah.
Speaker BLike, like Jim Cramer's probably just going to stop this.
Speaker BLook at the screen for an hour.
Speaker ARight.
Speaker AAnd that.
Speaker AAnd that's because we went through this great long period where they raised rates to the high levels that they were, and then we were all waiting for them to begin cutting.
Speaker AAnd we were led to believe that once they began cutting that it'd be a slow, gradual process.
Speaker BWhere does it feel so slow and gradual now?
Speaker BDoes it?
Speaker AYeah, I think they've pivoted from that, you know, position 100%.
Speaker BThey did, yeah.
Speaker BThey had to.
Speaker BA lot of, like, unexpected things happen.
Speaker BWe talked about that.
Speaker BWe'll get into a little bit today.
Speaker BSo let's translate for the pod listener out there, those of you listening going like, oh, God, more Jerome Powell.
Speaker BWhy?
Speaker BOkay, yeah, we got you.
Speaker AYeah.
Speaker BAll right.
Speaker BWe're going to soft serve this.
Speaker BSo essentially, the Fed is not being cautious here with their language.
Speaker BThey're basically stalling.
Speaker BOkay.
Speaker BThey're stalling while watching the economy like it's a slow motion car crash.
Speaker BWe know this is not good.
Speaker BWe know there's things that are moving the markets.
Speaker BIt's mostly rhetoric driven and the Fed's stalling.
Speaker BLook, we don't know.
Speaker BWe don't have the data that's come in.
Speaker BThis all just happened a week and a half.
Speaker BHere's what they're not saying.
Speaker AOkay.
Speaker BThis all happened a week and a half ago.
Speaker BIt's going to have some reverberating impacts.
Speaker BWhen that data comes in, we'll let you know.
Speaker BUntil then, we don't know.
Speaker AYeah.
Speaker AAnd it doesn't help that he's been told that we're going to.
Speaker ANow we're just going to pause Everything for 30, 60, 90 days.
Speaker ALike we.
Speaker AWe'll revisit the situation in 90 days.
Speaker ARight.
Speaker AIsn't that what you're talking about?
Speaker BA guy who wears purple ties on purpose because he doesn't want to be seen as political?
Speaker BThis is what he does.
Speaker ARight.
Speaker AIt's true.
Speaker AThat's what he does.
Speaker ABut also what he's also doing is he's leaving the option open.
Speaker ASo one of the questions in this meeting that he had today or the symposium that he was at.
Speaker AYeah.
Speaker AWas, is the Fed prepared to cut rates in the event that there's a market crash?
Speaker ARight.
Speaker BYeah.
Speaker AAnd unequivocally he's like, no, like, we're not going to get into that because there's too much not know that we won't do It.
Speaker ANo, I can't even comment on it because it's too much uncertainty.
Speaker BIt's a guess.
Speaker AIt's a guess.
Speaker BIt's a guess.
Speaker ABut you got.
Speaker ANow think to yourself, if the head guy.
Speaker AImagine if the CEO of your company came out and was like, oh, yeah, we're ready.
Speaker AWe're ready to.
Speaker AWe're ready to start laying off people.
Speaker AThat would send everybody into a panic.
Speaker ARight.
Speaker AWhat do you.
Speaker AWhat do you.
Speaker ASo now he's.
Speaker AHe's just literally trying to control emotions.
Speaker BYeah, well.
Speaker BAnd look, a lot of money means a lot of emotions.
Speaker BSome people are better suited to take.
Speaker BTake advantage of those circumstances.
Speaker BSome people will destroy their lives.
Speaker AExactly.
Speaker BSo.
Speaker BAnd I know you're thinking, Chris, can you give me an example?
Speaker AYeah, yeah, give me an example.
Speaker BYeah, I can.
Speaker BI like to go back in time.
Speaker BOkay.
Speaker BBack.
Speaker BBack in time.
Speaker AOh, way back.
Speaker BWay back.
Speaker BAnd look at examples.
Speaker BNot because I think it's going to happen, but look, what's the closest corollary to where we're at today?
Speaker AHistory tends to repeat itself?
Speaker B1970S, baby.
Speaker AStraight.
Speaker BThat's right.
Speaker ASo, resurgence in inflation.
Speaker B1970S, we had a resurgence inflation known as stagflation, which is basically a recession, but with a slight unique twist to it.
Speaker BSo in the late 1970s, the Fed raised rates in a recession to battle.
Speaker AInflation, which, remember, we just came out of.
Speaker AWe did for two years.
Speaker BYeah.
Speaker BCrushing growth and spiking unemployment, which may or may not happen.
Speaker BTbd.
Speaker BThat's why the Fed's like, I don't know, bro.
Speaker AWe'll see.
Speaker AI don't know.
Speaker BSo Powell in a similar trap right now.
Speaker BIf tariffs push inflations while the labor market slows, so he could have the same problem.
Speaker BI mean, in theory, we are heading down a road where that could be with the gas station team of the road.
Speaker AOr.
Speaker BEssentially it's like.
Speaker BAnd this is a terrible example, but bear with me here, okay?
Speaker BI think it makes sense because this would never happen in real life, but whatever.
Speaker BIt's like trying to put out a fire while someone keeps throwing matches and gasoline on it.
Speaker AYeah, exactly.
Speaker BLet me know how that's working out for you.
Speaker AYeah.
Speaker AThe people that are actually controlling the fire are not the ones helping you.
Speaker ARight.
Speaker AYou're working in opposite directions.
Speaker BAnd to be clear, that's not a political statement.
Speaker BI'm not poo poohing any party.
Speaker BNo, there's no party poo pooing here.
Speaker BOkay.
Speaker BWe're not doing that.
Speaker AOkay.
Speaker BAll I'm saying is, is there are at moments challenges between the Executive and legislative branches in what they do and economic policy.
Speaker AWell, you gotta think too, like it's not, it's not lost on anybody that when.
Speaker AAnd we're not poo pooing any party.
Speaker BNo poo pooing parties here.
Speaker ANo, yeah, we're not, we're just stating the facts that this is what actually happened when this administration took office.
Speaker ACame out the gate right away.
Speaker AI think it's time for drone Powell to cut rates.
Speaker BYeah.
Speaker BThat was strategic though too because let's be honest, if you're the president and you know that he's likely to cut rates.
Speaker BYeah, It's a great move.
Speaker BSaeed.
Speaker AYeah.
Speaker BI want you to know that I'm going to edit this show.
Speaker AYeah, okay.
Speaker BWe already know that I'm going to edit the show.
Speaker BYou already know it's a more probable than onset of circumstances.
Speaker BSo he set himself up to say I have a victory over Jerome Powell when in fact Jerome Powell ultimately, when he does cut rates, is just going to do what he's going to do anyway.
Speaker AThat's right.
Speaker AThat's.
Speaker AThat's right.
Speaker BIt got off on his brain.
Speaker ANow you already knew.
Speaker AThat's hilarious.
Speaker ANo, but then, and then, and then he goes on to say when Jerome Powell came out and they asked him, I was like, he, he has no control over me.
Speaker AAnd what we do, like we're, we're independent.
Speaker ARight.
Speaker BBut, but Trump has already set that up to say I control you.
Speaker AYeah.
Speaker AI can't because you know what I'm going to do?
Speaker ALike I, because not to say that he's doing it intentionally.
Speaker AHe's like, okay, I'll just shift my focus to the ten year.
Speaker ABut he knows what that means.
Speaker ARight.
Speaker BAnd if you take home one thing from the show, please, for the love of God, one, watch the ten year.
Speaker AYes.
Speaker BThe ten year treasury is such an important part of the overall economic picture.
Speaker BYou're like going, oh my God, Chris, like, why do I care?
Speaker BOkay, well, mortgage rates, the best proxy you have for mortgage rates going up or down is a ten year.
Speaker AYep.
Speaker BOkay.
Speaker BNow typically you get rates that are in, in the business world that are over the corresponding treasuries.
Speaker BDon't worry about that.
Speaker BIf you see the 10 year go up, you can expect mortgage rates to go up.
Speaker BIf you see the ten year come down, you can expect mortgage rates to come down.
Speaker BIt's that simple.
Speaker BYou want to be the smartest realtor or real estate agent on, in the street?
Speaker BJust watch the ten year treasury.
Speaker ARight.
Speaker BYou'll know what's Going to happen next.
Speaker AExactly.
Speaker BAnd if you're not watching it and you've been in the business for years, what are you doing?
Speaker AAnd this is the thing, as of this past week, that has really started to scare investors.
Speaker BThe tenure, the.
Speaker BYeah.
Speaker BThe Treasuries, the bond market in general.
Speaker AThe bond market in general.
Speaker ARight.
Speaker BBond markets.
Speaker BIt's getting a little dicey out there.
Speaker ASo with everything that's been going on with the tariffs and all the uncertainty at play, and a lot.
Speaker AThe stock market has.
Speaker AHas taken its hits over the last week.
Speaker AWeek and a half, two weeks.
Speaker ARight.
Speaker AWell, typically, what happens in situations like this, and correct me if I'm wrong, is investors will flee over to safer investments like the Treasuries.
Speaker BYeah.
Speaker AOkay.
Speaker AAnd what that.
Speaker BMore stable.
Speaker AYeah.
Speaker BInvestments.
Speaker ARight, exactly.
Speaker BLess risk.
Speaker ALess risk.
Speaker AAnd what happens when they do that?
Speaker ARight.
Speaker BTreasury prices go up.
Speaker AYeah.
Speaker ARight.
Speaker AThey're supposed to.
Speaker BMore buyers.
Speaker AYeah.
Speaker BMeans prices drive up.
Speaker AYeah.
Speaker ASo.
Speaker ABut it's so unstable right now that it's working in the opposite direction that it's supposed to go.
Speaker ASo that's the scary part.
Speaker BSo.
Speaker BYeah, there is.
Speaker BWell, so we.
Speaker BWe talked about the vix, the fear index, the fear gauge, having a lot of spikes up and down.
Speaker BIt's actually kind of normalized a little bit.
Speaker AI saw that.
Speaker AYeah.
Speaker BSo because it's normalized closer, around, like, low 30s, last I checked it.
Speaker BIt's been a while.
Speaker BAdmittedly, you would expect the treasury bond market to settle out, and it's not really.
Speaker BIt's been very volatile.
Speaker BSo here's what I'll say.
Speaker BForget all the traditional nuance, all the BS that we always talk about.
Speaker BNo one knows what happens next.
Speaker BEveryone's still uncertain.
Speaker BI don't care what the VIX says and what fear gauge says.
Speaker BThis uncertainty has created an environment.
Speaker BPeople like, I don't know if I want to really finance anything or buy anything.
Speaker BI just want to.
Speaker BI just kind of want to see what happens.
Speaker AYeah.
Speaker AYeah.
Speaker AI mean, that's the smart thing to do.
Speaker ARight, Right.
Speaker ABecause even if you thought rates were.
Speaker AIf rates did even come down a little bit when you're looking.
Speaker AWhen you're looking to refinance or borrow some money, are you going to refinance right when rates start to dip, or are you going to wait till the rates bottom out?
Speaker BSo.
Speaker BSo this is another thing I'm hearing a lot from people that are trying to make money, and they're like, chris, I just want to make some money.
Speaker BAnd this question I've gotten so much in the last Couple weeks in the DMs.
Speaker BShould I buy the dip now?
Speaker BDon't, don't be that guy, dude.
Speaker BDon't be that person who's calling me, hitting me up in the dm, saying, should I buy the dip?
Speaker BIf you know this is a dip.
Speaker AYeah.
Speaker BYou know better than everybody else in the markets that no one.
Speaker BRight.
Speaker BThat I know is looking at this going, we're at the bottom by now.
Speaker AYeah.
Speaker BThere isn't a single seasoned investor.
Speaker BAnd some people are saying, well, you know what?
Speaker BWarren Buffett's moved almost entirely to cash.
Speaker BThat's also not necessarily true.
Speaker AT bills.
Speaker AYeah.
Speaker BHere's what I would say.
Speaker BYes.
Speaker BWarren Buffett has put a lot of money into T bills.
Speaker BHe's got a lot of cash.
Speaker BHe's dragging a ton.
Speaker ARight.
Speaker BSo much so that you and I were calling this years ago.
Speaker AYeah.
Speaker BRight.
Speaker BWe knew he was moving a big chunk to cash, but when you look at his overall financial picture, he's always been about 70% invested and 30% cash.
Speaker BAnd he always kind of restructures his investments based on their value at any given time to be about.
Speaker BHe's just got so much damn money now that he's still about 30% invested in cash.
Speaker BIt's just a big ass number.
Speaker AYeah, you're right.
Speaker AIt's just a bigger number.
Speaker ABut I think this, what we talked about more recently about that was this was like the first time in a very, very long time that he's completely removed himself from the s and P500.
Speaker BYeah.
Speaker BAnd I think that speaks volumes.
Speaker AThat's where it really speaks volumes.
Speaker AYou're like, ooh, wait a minute.
Speaker BAnd that's another question.
Speaker BSo the second biggest question or second most frequently asked question number one is, do I buy the dip now?
Speaker BDude, I don't know if this is a dip.
Speaker BI can't tell you to do that.
Speaker BI have no idea.
Speaker BRight out the gate.
Speaker BThe other one I get is, well, should I stop investing in the S and P now?
Speaker BAnd I'm like, okay, well, your dollar cost averaging, right?
Speaker BAnd they go, well, yeah.
Speaker BAnd I'm like, okay, well this is part of that.
Speaker AYeah, exactly.
Speaker AWell, if you, if you continue to buy now, right.
Speaker ABecause think of it this way.
Speaker AHad you, had you bought in like a year ago where you, had you experienced some gains, right.
Speaker AThen you would have had the gains.
Speaker ABut now you're getting an opportunity almost to go back in time and buy again at that price.
Speaker AAnd even if it goes down further, you continue to dollar cost average.
Speaker AWe went through the Numbers.
Speaker AI guess the biggest fear here is that we actually step right into a recession.
Speaker ARight.
Speaker AAnd you're in your wonder.
Speaker AYou're thinking to yourself, oh, man, I bought.
Speaker AI bought the stocks, like, during a recession.
Speaker AWhy did I do this?
Speaker ARight.
Speaker BI really feel like we're in one already.
Speaker BI know so many people that are having financial challenges now.
Speaker BAnd because we do the show.
Speaker AYeah.
Speaker BPeople feel very.
Speaker BI don't know if you get this a lot.
Speaker BI.
Speaker BI do.
Speaker BI.
Speaker BPeople feel very comfortable talking about some deep personal financial stuff.
Speaker AYeah.
Speaker AI actually, like, commend them when they do.
Speaker AIf they do come to me, I just go right this way.
Speaker AHis name is Christopher, and he'd be at the higher standard.
Speaker BThat would make a lot of sense because I usually go like, hey, have you talked to say, you know this?
Speaker BAnd they're like, no, no, we don't talk to you.
Speaker BI don't need the color commentary.
Speaker ASorry.
Speaker AYou're the play by.
Speaker AI'm the play by play guy.
Speaker BNo, I'm not asking you to talk to him for commentary.
Speaker BI'm just asking to get him on schedule.
Speaker AYeah.
Speaker BBy the way, totally racist, and I apologize.
Speaker AWhat?
Speaker BRajeel was helping me.
Speaker BThe studio.
Speaker AYeah.
Speaker AAnd you do.
Speaker BSo he's Fijian, Right.
Speaker BAnd little Indian.
Speaker BRight.
Speaker BLovely dude.
Speaker BHis son and my son are close friends, and I adore him.
Speaker BHe's fantastic.
Speaker BAnd he's been helping me out in the studio, but I've been showing him my stories on Instagram.
Speaker BPeople like, that's not Saeed.
Speaker BAnd I'm like, obviously it's not Saeed.
Speaker BYou raise.
Speaker AThat's like the correlation.
Speaker BYeah.
Speaker AI sent it a substitute attacked him.
Speaker BIn, but he's brownish.
Speaker BAnd I'm like, what's wrong with society?
Speaker AProps to you.
Speaker AI wouldn't have known that people from Fiji are Fijian.
Speaker BI didn't know until he said it to me.
Speaker AYeah.
Speaker BI was like, you're messing.
Speaker AI feel like.
Speaker AIs that a joke to see if I know what I'm talking about, like.
Speaker AOr am I gonna correct you?
Speaker BSo back in the day when I first started, people don't know this about me, so I.
Speaker BOne of my earliest jobs was working as a teller at Wells Fargo.
Speaker AMe too.
Speaker BSo, yeah.
Speaker BYeah.
Speaker BAnd I worked.
Speaker BI worked with this girl, and she.
Speaker BShe looked Asian, but she was clearly, like, mixed or something.
Speaker BI couldn't tell.
Speaker BI thought maybe Filipino.
Speaker BI didn't know what she was.
Speaker BAnd, you know, I think at the time I was like, 16, 17.
Speaker BShe asked for me to drive her home after work because she doesn't have a car and she normally walks and it was cold.
Speaker BI was like, whatever, blah, blah, blah.
Speaker BAnd we're.
Speaker BI'm driving her to her place, right?
Speaker BThere's nothing romantic about this.
Speaker BLike, she had.
Speaker BShe had a dude.
Speaker BBut, you know, I was like, hey, you know, I've always wondered, like, what's your ethnicity?
Speaker BAnd she goes, oh, I'm Guamanian.
Speaker BI'm like, that's not a word.
Speaker AYeah.
Speaker AI'm calling shenanigans.
Speaker AYeah.
Speaker BNo, you're from Guam.
Speaker BAnd she goes, yeah.
Speaker BI'm like, why don't you just say I'm from Guam?
Speaker BShe's like, because I'm Guamanian.
Speaker BI'm like, stop saying that.
Speaker AYeah, yeah, exactly.
Speaker BShe was right, I was wrong.
Speaker BIt's a word.
Speaker BDid not know that.
Speaker BGo mania.
Speaker BI'm like, tasmanian.
Speaker AYeah.
Speaker AI have a really good follow up story for this that I would have been able to share, like, maybe several months ago, but I can't.
Speaker BYeah.
Speaker BBack when we had an X rated show before everybody, their mother started, ironically, more people listen to you, but they're listening for the wrong reasons.
Speaker AYeah.
Speaker BTo try to catch you on something now.
Speaker BRight?
Speaker BAt the same time, I'm like, tell your friends.
Speaker AYeah.
Speaker BSo now I almost want to say something bad.
Speaker BSo they shut up their friends and be like, yo, hey, they said this.
Speaker BCan you believe they said this on the show?
Speaker AHonestly, shout out to all the listeners and you know who you are, that.
Speaker BYou mean the haters.
Speaker AYeah.
Speaker ANo, no, no, no, no.
Speaker AThe listeners that know me well enough to where they'll literally DM me and say, I mean, kudos, brother.
Speaker AYou showed some serious restraint this last episode.
Speaker BI know, right?
Speaker AThey go.
Speaker AThey even know.
Speaker AThey know.
Speaker ALike, oh, say wants.
Speaker AHe wants to hit this punchline.
Speaker BYeah.
Speaker BAnd I watch.
Speaker BSo I watch other people's podcasts.
Speaker BAnd the weirdest reason why I watch, by the way, I do this, it's Chris Williamson's.
Speaker BI watch because the lighting.
Speaker AOh, yeah, yeah.
Speaker BBeautiful lighting.
Speaker BI love the cinematography.
Speaker BI don't care what he's saying.
Speaker AYeah.
Speaker BHalftime.
Speaker BI'm like, he's so pretty.
Speaker AYeah.
Speaker ALike a good voice.
Speaker BYeah.
Speaker BI'll watch Rogan because there's certain.
Speaker BCertain people he brings on that I'm really interested in.
Speaker BLike, I love the science stuff.
Speaker BI love Egypt stuff.
Speaker BI love, like, the history stuff, the UFC stuff.
Speaker BI'm like, me.
Speaker AIs it true he really quit drinking?
Speaker BWho?
Speaker ARogan.
Speaker BI wasn't wearing that.
Speaker AYeah, I think I saw.
Speaker AI think I saw a post where he's like, yeah, I Think I'm done drinking.
Speaker AYeah, well, he's like.
Speaker AHe.
Speaker AHis arg.
Speaker AHis argument was, it's kind of weird that I'm just now realizing this after all these years.
Speaker ASomebody that takes such good care of their body, like a temple, just feeds it poison.
Speaker BI think all he does is smoke cigars now.
Speaker AAnd the other extracurricular stuff.
Speaker BI.
Speaker BI stopped drinking without the intention of, like, being blatant about it.
Speaker BBut I gotta be honest with you, I do not regret it.
Speaker BAnd I never thought in a million years I'd regret it.
Speaker AYeah.
Speaker BSo my wife in the new studio has bought us, like, these really nice crystal pieces.
Speaker ANice.
Speaker BSome of which are decanters.
Speaker AYeah.
Speaker AJust.
Speaker BAnd I'm like, what am I going to put in that monster?
Speaker AThat would be legendary.
Speaker AAnd we can keep it in the fridge.
Speaker AYeah, we should totally do that.
Speaker BYou think I'm being sarcastic here?
Speaker ANo, no.
Speaker AWe'll pour ourselves every time.
Speaker BI also bought us a cold brew container to go in there today so we can make some cold brew.
Speaker ACold brew.
Speaker BSo that, you know, we can share it with the nobodies who visits us.
Speaker BSo I happen to a deep dive into today from Yahoo.
Speaker BFinance.
Speaker BLet's get into a little bit.
Speaker BIt's going to segue.
Speaker BThe Jerome Powell conversation is something a little bit meaningful.
Speaker BUseful.
Speaker AYeah.
Speaker BFor any of you who's looking to make money and get some good sound bites to take back to your friends and family and loved ones.
Speaker AYeah.
Speaker ASee?
Speaker ASee what this means?
Speaker AIt's tea leaves.
Speaker BYeah.
Speaker BAnd there are people who are gonna be like, chris, I don't care about Jerome Pal.
Speaker BThen stay with us.
Speaker BOkay, Jerome Pals, the aperitif is the palate cleanser before I give you the steak tartare.
Speaker AYeah, okay.
Speaker BOkay.
Speaker ATartare.
Speaker BThe tartar is Netflix.
Speaker BAll right, so Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said Wednesday today, the central bank will wait for greater clarity before considering any interest rate adjustments, as he expects President Trump's tariffs to generate higher inflation and slower growth.
Speaker AOkay, so explain to the people what.
Speaker AWhat kind of clarity?
Speaker ABecause right now he's seeing, well, jobs are okay, so there's no need to cut rates.
Speaker ARight.
Speaker AThe thought process behind that is if unemployment got out of hand, that if he lowered rates, then it would stimulate the economy more to ultimately adding more jobs.
Speaker BSee, the problem is you've gotten so good at this now that you actually speak in Fed speak when explaining Fed speak.
Speaker BIt's confusing now.
Speaker AIt's.
Speaker BWhat he's trying to say is, bro, we don't know what's going to happen, we're going to need to see some data.
Speaker ARight.
Speaker AWe're going to need some.
Speaker ASee some data that is.
Speaker AAnd.
Speaker AOkay.
Speaker AAnd the data that we're seeing doesn't.
Speaker ADoesn't make me have to do anything.
Speaker BYep.
Speaker BAll these things, they go the opposite way of what I'm trying to do.
Speaker BSo now I'm just pissed off.
Speaker BSo I'm just going to wait.
Speaker ARight.
Speaker BThat's what he's saying.
Speaker AYeah.
Speaker BLook at my purple tie.
Speaker AYeah.
Speaker BThere's no politician.
Speaker BJust anecdotally, if you see somebody wearing a blue tie with a suit or a red tie with a suit, do you automatically assume Republican or Democrat?
Speaker ANo, I don't see colors the way you.
Speaker AYou normal people do.
Speaker BOh, that's right.
Speaker BYou're colorblind.
Speaker BI am so sorry.
Speaker ASo when you say.
Speaker BI did not mean.
Speaker AWhen you said.
Speaker AWhen you said.
Speaker AWhen you said he wears a purple tie, go.
Speaker AReally?
Speaker BI really.
Speaker AI thought this was.
Speaker AI thought this was blue the whole time.
Speaker BDid you really?
Speaker AYeah.
Speaker AYou know the worst part about this?
Speaker AMy kids love to tease me about this.
Speaker AIt's like their favorite thing.
Speaker AThey go, hey, dad, what color is this?
Speaker AAnd I'm like, why you got to do this?
Speaker BI forget all the time.
Speaker ADo you?
Speaker AThat's.
Speaker AYou don't see the color strengths?
Speaker AThere's no.
Speaker ANever.
Speaker BNo.
Speaker BYou always seem to have the color corded, like, coordinated.
Speaker BLike clothes, bro.
Speaker ABlack on black.
Speaker ABlack and olive green.
Speaker AEasy.
Speaker BYeah.
Speaker BI just thought you're Middle Eastern.
Speaker BLike, that's bro.
Speaker BDude, guy.
Speaker ANo, no.
Speaker ABut blue tie, red tie.
Speaker AI mean, if they're a politician, of course.
Speaker BPolitician adjacent.
Speaker BLike a banker walks in wearing a red tie to you.
Speaker BOh, Republican.
Speaker ANo, I think Insurance agent.
Speaker BOh, state farm.
Speaker ANo, the guys that used to work in our building that all used to.
Speaker BWear those big knotted ties.
Speaker AFull Windsor.
Speaker ABig knotted.
Speaker AThey all wore red ties.
Speaker BYou know, I see them in the gym and they're all, like, wildly tatted up, too.
Speaker BIt's like, bro, you can't be the guy with a giant.
Speaker AThey want.
Speaker AThey just want.
Speaker AThey just want to be the next.
Speaker BPVD bro who stunningly, is not a good guy.
Speaker BWhy?
Speaker AWhat do you mean?
Speaker APeople don't know that, Christopher.
Speaker AYeah, we got a.
Speaker AWe got a lot of hate when we tease people with that one.
Speaker AThumbnail.
Speaker ARemember?
Speaker BYeah.
Speaker BOh, the Patrick David thumbnail.
Speaker AYeah.
Speaker AAnd they thought, oh, we had him on the show.
Speaker BYeah.
Speaker BI almost want to do it again.
Speaker AYeah.
Speaker AThe clickbait.
Speaker BThis is very, very just.
Speaker BThis is false advertising.
Speaker BNot advertising.
Speaker BThis is not advertising.
Speaker BThis is Me showing a picture.
Speaker AYeah.
Speaker BYeah.
Speaker AYou fell for the click.
Speaker BYeah.
Speaker BThat's called click bait.
Speaker AYeah.
Speaker BYou've been baited.
Speaker AYeah.
Speaker BWhy are you mad at me?
Speaker AYeah, exactly.
Speaker BYou're mad at all traditional.
Speaker AWe.
Speaker AWe tested you.
Speaker BAll right.
Speaker BWell, the twin developments that Jerome Powell had generated higher inflation and slow growth that he's saying are a problem for him.
Speaker BWell, he acknowledged during the Chicago speak that you mentioned earlier today that the conference that he was at could create a major dilemma for the Fed, which is obligated to keep prices stable and while also maximizing employment.
Speaker BSo this is a direct quote.
Speaker BNow, we may find ourselves in the challenging scenario in which our dual mandate goals are in tension.
Speaker BHe said during a question and answer session that followed his speech, he admitted there is a.
Speaker BAnd again quoting, strong likelihood, end quote, that the economy will be moving away from both of the Fed's goals for the, quote, balance of the year or at least not making much progress, end quote.
Speaker AOh, yeah.
Speaker BThat may lead to a, quote, very difficult judgment, end quote, for the central bank.
Speaker BPowell acknowledged.
Speaker BYou see the quotes here that I'm throwing out at you?
Speaker BHe's trying to give you little hints.
Speaker AHe's giving you little hints.
Speaker AAnd we, we briefly spoke about this on the last show.
Speaker AYeah, briefly.
Speaker ARight.
Speaker AOr I think them.
Speaker AProviding maximum employment does not mean an unemployment rate of 1%.
Speaker ANo, that's not what that means.
Speaker BNo.
Speaker AProviding maximum employment would be somewhere in the ballpark of four and a half percent.
Speaker AFour percent.
Speaker AFour and a half.
Speaker AWhat we've kind of been now accustomed to seeing.
Speaker AIt used to be 5%, but I think the Atlanta Fed.
Speaker ABostic.
Speaker AThat his name?
Speaker BBostic.
Speaker BBostic.
Speaker BWe never really settled this.
Speaker AWe.
Speaker ARaphael, though.
Speaker BYeah, Raphael.
Speaker AYeah, Raphael.
Speaker BDonatello.
Speaker BLeonardo.
Speaker AYeah.
Speaker ARaphael came out and said, I think after the last seven to 10 years, I think we can all comfortably say that a maximum employment or a healthy unemployment rate would be four and a half percent.
Speaker ASo what he's saying, what Jerome Powell is saying is if unemployment starts to go the other way, but inflation also remains high, what do you.
Speaker AWhat is he in the other FOMC members supposed to do?
Speaker ABecause cutting rates would help one scenario.
Speaker ALeaving rates higher would help the other scenario.
Speaker ARight.
Speaker AAnd now we're in this stage of stagflation.
Speaker BFun fact.
Speaker BThe Fed's dual mandate, stable prices and maximum employment, dates back to the Full Employment Imbalance growth Act of 1978, aka the Humphrey Hawkins Act.
Speaker BShare that with your friends.
Speaker BGo to a party.
Speaker BYeah.
Speaker BThe Fed's got two roles, man.
Speaker BYou go, hey, hey, Bro, let me say something about those two roles.
Speaker BOkay.
Speaker BThose two mandates you talk about, everybody talks about.
Speaker AYeah.
Speaker BHumphrey ains act.
Speaker AYeah, but he.
Speaker ABut they.
Speaker BThey shot 78.
Speaker ABut they shot themselves in the foot on this one.
Speaker AAnd I still don't understand why.
Speaker AFully.
Speaker ARight.
Speaker AI mean, the inflation rate, a goal of 2%.
Speaker AIt used to be 2 to 3%.
Speaker BWant to hear something fun?
Speaker BYou know how in the statement that he said tension, he used that word intentionally?
Speaker ATension.
Speaker BTension, yes.
Speaker BSaid it may lead to some tension between the political zeitgeist and his dual mandate.
Speaker BI did a little bit of research.
Speaker AYou did?
Speaker BYeah.
Speaker BI dug deep.
Speaker AYou did deep.
Speaker AOkay.
Speaker BAnd reaching back in the 1970s.
Speaker AOkay.
Speaker BBecause you know I'm all about the bell bottoms.
Speaker AYep.
Speaker BPowell's tension quote comment here is a direct nod to stagflation fears.
Speaker BThink 1970s deja vu, slow growth plus high inflation equals policy paralysis.
Speaker BThat word tension in actual direction was used in 1970 when stagflation was talking about same exact.
Speaker BYeah, you're only gonna get that here, kids.
Speaker AYeah.
Speaker BThe higher standard podcast.
Speaker BNo one else giving that to you.
Speaker BOkay.
Speaker BYeah.
Speaker BSo no mainstream media.
Speaker ARight.
Speaker ASo you already can.
Speaker ASo you know he's using it now to set the table.
Speaker ARight?
Speaker AYeah, it's.
Speaker AIt's like a little head nod.
Speaker BYeah, he.
Speaker BHe was giving kudos shout outs.
Speaker AYeah.
Speaker BThis is like when you hear, like a rap battle between Tupac and Biggie, and Tupac say, wait, did he talk about his wife?
Speaker BIs that what just happened right there?
Speaker BYeah, yeah, yeah, exactly like, you know that.
Speaker AAnd he gave a shout out to his homie Volker.
Speaker AYeah, that's the homie for him.
Speaker BHe loves Paul Volker.
Speaker AYeah, that.
Speaker AThat was the guy.
Speaker AYeah, that was the guy that was in charge back then.
Speaker BYeah.
Speaker BSo he also went on to say that the Fed would, quote, wait for greater clarity, but historically, policy lags can take about six to 18 months, because we know that some of these things are lagging indicators.
Speaker AYeah, see, that's the problem.
Speaker AHere we are in 2025, and the data is lagging.
Speaker BI got another example for you.
Speaker BHit me with steering a battleship through the fog with only radar, Right?
Speaker BYou're waiting for some ping backs on the radar.
Speaker BYou don't know what's in front of you.
Speaker AYou can't see it until you see the tip of the.
Speaker BYou just know that you got to use this tool and listen for some ping back from, you know, hitting like a, I don't know, an iceberg or another submarine or something out there.
Speaker BAnd then if you do, then you react.
Speaker AYeah.
Speaker AToo late.
Speaker BI'm up here.
Speaker BCerebellum.
Speaker BYeah.
Speaker ACerebellum is too late then.
Speaker BYeah.
Speaker BWell, no, not necessarily.
Speaker ASometimes.
Speaker BClearly, you've not been on a submarine or Battleship.
Speaker ANever.
Speaker ANever will be.
Speaker BYou play Battleship?
Speaker AYeah.
Speaker AI win every time.
Speaker BStop it.
Speaker AEvery time.
Speaker BI don't podcast where all we do is play.
Speaker BI don't whoop your ass.
Speaker AYou know, they.
Speaker ASome of those podcasts that are so big are those shows.
Speaker AThey have separate gaming channels.
Speaker BDude, my son has been watching a lot of those lately.
Speaker AWhat is he into?
Speaker AWhat kind of games?
Speaker BRoblox.
Speaker AOh, yeah.
Speaker BHe's playing a lot of Mario, too.
Speaker BWe got him a switch.
Speaker AI know.
Speaker AYeah.
Speaker ADid you get in the game?
Speaker AI told you to get him.
Speaker BTerrible idea.
Speaker BWhat's wrong with you?
Speaker AYou did.
Speaker AYou got it.
Speaker BYeah, man.
Speaker AWhy?
Speaker AWhat's so terrible about it?
Speaker BHe's addicted.
Speaker AIt's strategy.
Speaker BIt's a whole thing.
Speaker ANo, it's good for him.
Speaker BI don't get it.
Speaker AIt's good for him.
Speaker BI just.
Speaker BI want.
Speaker BI want to go back to my son.
Speaker ANo, no, no.
Speaker AIt's way better this way than him getting addicted to the apps.
Speaker BYeah, probably true.
Speaker BSo I have one more little tidbit before we jump into some Nvidia conversation for those of you who are like, I want to make money.
Speaker BChris, stop talking about your own pal.
Speaker BWe're getting there.
Speaker BOkay?
Speaker AYeah.
Speaker ASettle down.
Speaker BYeah.
Speaker BWe're now moved on from the apartif.
Speaker BOkay.
Speaker BWe cleanse the palate.
Speaker BWe've had a little bit of tuna tartare, maybe some steak tartare, and we're going to jump into some of the meat and potatoes.
Speaker BAll right?
Speaker AOkay.
Speaker BBut Powell's hawk turned dove vibes.
Speaker BDespite being appointed by Trump, Powell has been criticized by Trump for not cutting rates fast enough.
Speaker BEnough.
Speaker BTrump's obviously given the political kind of shtick here of like, you should cut rates now, he's holding steady.
Speaker BWhile Trump's policies create inflation, the irony here writes itself.
Speaker BBut there is clearly a political backdrop which is going to come to a head.
Speaker BAnd I think Jerome Powell's term's up to 26.
Speaker AI don't know.
Speaker BI think it's up to 26.
Speaker ALet me look it up.
Speaker BSo let's talk about Nvidia and market volatility.
Speaker BNvidia, for those of you who do not follow the Mag 7, it's a tech stock, okay?
Speaker BAnd Nvidia is typically a barometer for AI, risk appetite.
Speaker BRight.
Speaker BBecause their primary output are chips for AI.
Speaker BSo Nvidia has become the proxy for AI optimism in the market.
Speaker BIf they the stock's doing well, people are like, oh my God, it's amazing.
Speaker BIf it's doing terrible is overhyped.
Speaker AYeah.
Speaker AMay 26th.
Speaker AYou're right.
Speaker BOkay, There you go.
Speaker BSee, this hurts you, doesn't it?
Speaker ANo.
Speaker AI'm proud of you.
Speaker BOh, thank you.
Speaker BWhen the stock tanks Nvidia, it shakes the confidence the entire innovation narrative on Wall Street.
Speaker BSo Nvidia is often spoken about a lot.
Speaker BSo if you hear someone like talking about Nvidia, like oh my God, bad day for Nvidia.
Speaker BYou can expect the entire innovation sector.
Speaker BAnybody tied to tech is going to have some type of ramification on the stock price at least a little bit.
Speaker ARight.
Speaker BAI chips like the new oil.
Speaker BWe used to talk about nothing but oil in this country.
Speaker BOh, oil this, oil that.
Speaker BEverything was oil driven and that's changed a whole lot.
Speaker BThe narrative US restricts Nvidia chips to China, like banning gasoline exports during energy war.
Speaker BWe have this proxy fight going on with our chips going there, their chips coming here.
Speaker BWe all heard about the whole Huawei situation where there was spying equipment allegedly in cell sites and whatnot.
Speaker BObviously tick tock.
Speaker BA Chinese owned business is under a lot of scrutiny.
Speaker BSo these are proxies now for kind of overall control.
Speaker BIt hits demand, slowing global build out and opens doors for rivals like Huawei to develop homegrown solutions.
Speaker BSo the more we restrict Nvidia's chips going over there or they restrict them coming into their country, the more it gives an opportunity for Chinese competitors to rise.
Speaker AYes.
Speaker BAnd then ultimately has reverberating effects in the market.
Speaker BSo watching these stocks is really important, number one for overall market and sector, number two for AI in general.
Speaker BAnd number three, the tariffs that impact these, these companies, these companies have reverberating effects for competition reasons.
Speaker ARight.
Speaker BSo you've got to be mindful of all these things.
Speaker BAnother example of why the zeitgeist, the ether of all this political commentary.
Speaker BThe tariffs are really important if you're going to buy be buying just simple stock.
Speaker AYeah.
Speaker BNvidia, one of the most traded stocks in the world.
Speaker ARight.
Speaker BSo according to Yahoo Finance here, US stock futures traded flat on the heels of a bruising day on Wall street.
Speaker BThat was today, on Wednesday.
Speaker BThat underscores fears over the economic impact of President Trump's tariffs.
Speaker BIt is crazy to me that one day's been positive, one day's been negative, one day's been positive.
Speaker BAnd this is today's narrative yet again, negative.
Speaker BThere's just so much up and down.
Speaker ARight.
Speaker BHow can you call a low if you're buying the dip?
Speaker BI don't know.
Speaker AYou can't.
Speaker AAnd that's the stress behind that is what keeps me always wanting a dollar cost average.
Speaker AYeah.
Speaker AThat's the only thing that makes me feel safe.
Speaker BYeah, I hear you.
Speaker BAnd you know from your tall friend.
Speaker AWarm hugs from tall friends.
Speaker ABecause you know that over the, over the long haul, even if I am buying at a.
Speaker AAt a higher price at some point and then it eventually comes down a little bit, after 30 years, I will have made the right decision more times than not.
Speaker AIt's like, okay, I'm gonna shoot.
Speaker AI'm gonna shoot 20 shots this game.
Speaker ARight.
Speaker AAnd I know a certain percentage is gonna go in just based on my averages.
Speaker AI'm that good.
Speaker BI'm not even gonna take the.
Speaker BThere's plenty of shots I can take here about your shots that I'm not going to take because those are 100% fire every time you just shoot a foe shot.
Speaker BOh, my God.
Speaker BYou don't still do that if you're not watching this.
Speaker BNo, I don't do that.
Speaker BI didn't even do that.
Speaker AStop it.
Speaker BYou don't have Saeed basketball shot.
Speaker BJust exercising the rhythm of the shot.
Speaker ALook at the.
Speaker BAnd I gotta be honest, look at the form.
Speaker BNobody did.
Speaker BThe people still do the floppy wrist.
Speaker AAre you supposed to yank it back?
Speaker BThere's lots of unorthodox shooters.
Speaker BStopper.
Speaker AStop it.
Speaker BLots of unorthodox shooters.
Speaker AYeah, no, everyone still does.
Speaker AI'm surprised it's called the gooseneck.
Speaker AFirst of all.
Speaker BOkay, first of all, I don't care what you call your floppy wrist.
Speaker BRight.
Speaker BIt's got other connotations other places.
Speaker BJust go to Santa Monica and give you somebody the gooseneck and see what happens to your eye, bro.
Speaker BBut let me just ask you the question.
Speaker BRight after Reggie Miller, there weren't a lot of people shooting like Reggie Miller, like Steph Curry.
Speaker BWhy is that?
Speaker BReggie Miller, back in the day was the most preeminent shooter in the league.
Speaker BYeah, like, he was the guy.
Speaker AYeah.
Speaker BBut nobody wanted to shoot like him.
Speaker BIt's because he had like that weird thing.
Speaker AIt's actually very.
Speaker ANo, it's very.
Speaker AFirst of all, Reggie Miller Shaw was very unorthodox.
Speaker AHis hands would cross.
Speaker ASo yeah, that's.
Speaker AYou don't want to.
Speaker AYou can't practice that.
Speaker AAnd Steph Curry, people can't shoot like him because it's actually very difficult.
Speaker AI can't.
Speaker AI don't Want to even get into mechanics?
Speaker BDid I suggest that?
Speaker BIt was easy.
Speaker AYeah.
Speaker AYou said, why aren't people shooting like Steph Curry?
Speaker BA lot of people try to shoot like Steph Curry.
Speaker BNobody tried to shoot like.
Speaker ANo, no.
Speaker AThey try to shoot the same shots as Steph Curry.
Speaker AThey don't shoot like Steph Curry.
Speaker AThat's two completely different things.
Speaker BLet's get back to the finance, shall we?
Speaker AYeah.
Speaker BFutures attached to the Dow Industrial Jones.
Speaker BA Dow Jones Industrial Average probably say that, right?
Speaker BRose 0.4%.
Speaker BThe benchmark for the S&P gained 0.5%.
Speaker BFutures for the tech heavy Nasdaq Composite ticked up 0.6%.
Speaker BYet the market was expressing fear and the Dow was up.
Speaker BBut it's a bruising day on Wall Street.
Speaker BThese are mixed messages.
Speaker BThese are the same damn article.
Speaker BYeah.
Speaker BThese are two paragraphs apart.
Speaker ARight.
Speaker BAnd people like Chris buy the dip.
Speaker BHow do you know it's a dip?
Speaker AHow do you know it's a dip?
Speaker ARight.
Speaker AExactly.
Speaker BOn one hand, in the same article, two paragraphs, consecutive paragraphs.
Speaker BVery contradictory statements.
Speaker AYeah.
Speaker AI mean, well, explain to people what's the thought process behind those individuals that are saying, buy the dip?
Speaker BBecause people say, look, if you don't take on risk, you don't get rewards.
Speaker BThey're saying, take on the risk of the market being at its low point and buy now.
Speaker BBut here's the problem.
Speaker BIf the market continues to go lower, what do you take on?
Speaker BMore risk, you buy more and then at some point you run out of money.
Speaker BIt's like going to Las Vegas.
Speaker BAnd here's the greatest example I can give you, that's non financial.
Speaker BYou go to Las Vegas, you play blackjack.
Speaker B$50 a hand, right.
Speaker BThat's your dollar cost averaging 50 a hand.
Speaker BYou're hoping you win more hands than you lose.
Speaker AYeah, right.
Speaker AYeah.
Speaker BBut you lose a couple hands.
Speaker AYeah.
Speaker AYou need a bankroll.
Speaker AYou gotta.
Speaker AYou need a bankroll to start, right?
Speaker BYou're gonna need some money to back that bankroll if you lost a couple hands.
Speaker BAnd then there's always that guy, you know what?
Speaker BI'm losing, but I can make more money if I play two hands at the same time.
Speaker ASplit it.
Speaker AYeah.
Speaker BOr I bet a hundred dollars per hand.
Speaker AYeah.
Speaker BAnd then you lose that hand.
Speaker AYeah.
Speaker ANow what are you gonna do?
Speaker BNow you've lost two hands in a row, plus the one you doubled down on.
Speaker BSo now you've lost.
Speaker BBut I'm down 50 and 100.
Speaker ABut now I'm gonna hit this one.
Speaker ASo you know what?
Speaker AI'm gonna do.
Speaker AI'm gonna make up for it.
Speaker AI'm gonna put 300.
Speaker BYeah.
Speaker BIt's always better to play the game a little longer and bet just 50 a hand and be consistent than it is to go in, bet more, come in, bet less, go in, bet more, take more losses.
Speaker AI think this example works a little bit better at the craps table, but I'll.
Speaker AI'll let it go.
Speaker BYou know, I love playing craps, but I will.
Speaker AIt's the most fun game.
Speaker BJust bet the line.
Speaker AJust bet the line.
Speaker BIt's all you got to do.
Speaker AIt's the most fun game once you understand the rules.
Speaker BI was in my late 20s before I actually played, like, a real game of craps.
Speaker AYeah.
Speaker BAnd I.
Speaker BThat first time, I cried, you know, like, all those tables.
Speaker BYou've seen the movies.
Speaker BEveryone's like, yeah, it's amazing.
Speaker BThey keep the dice roll.
Speaker BEverybody's blowing on your dice, and you're like, yeah, I'm the man.
Speaker BThat was my first experience.
Speaker AThat was your first one?
Speaker AMy first experience.
Speaker AI remember blowing 300.
Speaker AAnd I'm not a gambler.
Speaker ARight.
Speaker ABut I.
Speaker AI lost $300, and at the time, that was a lot of money for me.
Speaker ARight.
Speaker BIt's not haram, bro.
Speaker AI know.
Speaker AIt is haram, bro.
Speaker AYou mean halal?
Speaker AI don't know.
Speaker AIt's not halal, bro.
Speaker AIt's haram.
Speaker AAnd I lost it in 15 minutes, but it felt like the longest time.
Speaker AAnd I remember feeling like that was the best $300 I've ever spent.
Speaker BThat casino air.
Speaker AYeah.
Speaker BI swear, oxygen rich.
Speaker BFeels fresh.
Speaker BWonder how much they spend on those air systems.
Speaker BIt's got to be wild.
Speaker AYeah.
Speaker BAll right, so now the third paragraph in this article.
Speaker BSo one product.
Speaker BArticle one, negative.
Speaker BArticle two is, like, it's relatively positive.
Speaker BArticle three, you ready?
Speaker AYeah.
Speaker BStocks extend their slide on Wednesday as Powell speaks in Chicago.
Speaker BSo now the president's affecting the economy, and so is the Fed secretary.
Speaker BEverybody's affecting the economy, right?
Speaker BSo if.
Speaker BAnd here's the crazy part.
Speaker BIf Jerome Powell point Trump and say, hey, look, politically, you're affecting the market, you're dragging stocks down with some of these tariffs conversations.
Speaker BNow, Trump could point to you and be like, stop talking to Chicago.
Speaker BYou're dragging the market down with your negative optimism.
Speaker BRight.
Speaker BYou're saying things that are dragging people down.
Speaker BYou're a buzzkill, bro.
Speaker BYou're buzzkill in the market.
Speaker BAt least I'm trying to do something.
Speaker BYou're out here just scaring people.
Speaker AIs he really scaring People, though, I feel like he.
Speaker AEverything, every time Jerome Powell speaks, it's just.
Speaker AHe's just calming the waters.
Speaker BOkay, let me continue.
Speaker AYeah.
Speaker BStocks extended their slide on Wednesday as Powell, speaking in Chicago.
Speaker BRight.
Speaker BIssued his starkest warning yet on how tariffs could affect the U.S.
Speaker Beconomy.
Speaker BFed Chair said the central bank would likely face a, quote, challenging scenario considering he expects the levies to exasperate inflation and slow economic growth that we covered in the previous article.
Speaker BPowell also threw cold water on hopes that the central bank would eminently slash interest rates as tariffs roll in, saying the Fed officials will, quote.
Speaker BWait.
Speaker BFor greater clarity.
Speaker BSee, now, his comments in that speech are put in a position where you understand the impacts the economy on Trump's trade policy.
Speaker AYeah, but it's not his job to save the day.
Speaker AIn this instance, it's not.
Speaker BBut he does have impact on the.
Speaker BHe's saying stuff that moves markets just as much as Trump is saying something.
Speaker ANo, yeah, yeah, yeah, you're right.
Speaker AHe can.
Speaker ABut up until now he hasn't.
Speaker ARight?
Speaker ASo what he's just setting the table for is everyone's like, hey, when, when all this hits the fan, right?
Speaker ALook that way.
Speaker BDon't, don't you dare.
Speaker ADon't you dare look over here.
Speaker BBut again, if you're the guy in my DM saying, chris, I'm gonna buy Nvidia today, I'm buying the dip.
Speaker BYeah, it's the dip.
Speaker AYeah.
Speaker BRight.
Speaker BOkay, well, let's go on.
Speaker BBefore and after Powell spoke, Nvidia's shares tanked on the news.
Speaker BThe chip giant would face new curbs from the US Government on sales to China.
Speaker BTanked.
Speaker BThat's the word.
Speaker BTanked.
Speaker ATanked.
Speaker BOkay.
Speaker BOn Thursday, the focus for Wall street will be Netflix's quarterly earnings report.
Speaker AWas.
Speaker AIt was tanked.
Speaker AIt was down like 9%, right?
Speaker BEight, man.
Speaker ACome on, man, let me tank you.
Speaker BLook it up.
Speaker BTanks today.
Speaker AHere, I got you right here.
Speaker AToday.
Speaker A7%.
Speaker BBut how much is 7%?
Speaker AYeah, true.
Speaker AAnd after hours, it's one.
Speaker BOkay, yeah.
Speaker BSo not good.
Speaker BRight?
Speaker BBut.
Speaker BSo tomorrow, Thursday, Netflix was going to be reporting.
Speaker BRight.
Speaker BQuarterly earnings report, which is set for release after the bell.
Speaker BThe big tech, unsettled with Big tech was unsettled by Trump's tariffs.
Speaker BThe streaming giant has emerged as a rare bright spot among the group and investors to hold high hopes for its results.
Speaker BAnd I'm going to give you some unsolicited optimism.
Speaker AGive it to me.
Speaker BI'm blowing all the sunshine in all the holes right now for you, ok?
Speaker BI want rainbows coming out of everything.
Speaker AAll right, let's go.
Speaker BNetflix is an interesting company to consider buying right now.
Speaker BAnd I'm not endorsing them.
Speaker AOkay.
Speaker BI'm just saying that historically they've exhibited patterns of behavior in similar situated economies that make them a true outlier.
Speaker BNot saying to buy the dip, saying that Netflix typically shines in economies like this.
Speaker AYeah.
Speaker BSo maybe not a dip, but maybe an opportunity for future growth here based on historical performance.
Speaker BTrue.
Speaker AYeah, true.
Speaker BSo Nvidia has China drama.
Speaker BI want to frame this, right?
Speaker BThe Biden administration was cracking down on AI chip exports.
Speaker BTariffs are now a bipartisan weapon.
Speaker BNvidia, which gets a chunk of its data center revenue from China, is now a target.
Speaker BAnd so this is the ramifications that they're getting.
Speaker BRight.
Speaker BSo now they have exports, plus they have the data center business out there.
Speaker BNvidia's market cap dropped over $100 billion a day earlier this year.
Speaker BA reminder of how fragile tech dominance really is under geopolitical stress.
Speaker BSo these, these events can have real meaningful dollar impacts.
Speaker BSo again, buy the dip, dude.
Speaker BI don't know where that's at.
Speaker BIf you're in video, 7% down on a day is not a big deal.
Speaker BBut a hundred billion dollar swing in their market cap, that's a big loss.
Speaker AIt's a big loss.
Speaker AYeah.
Speaker BRight.
Speaker BSo there's some market skittish.
Speaker BWe should.
Speaker BNumbers we should probably frame up here.
Speaker BAs of this week, the s and P500 is down about 9% year to date.
Speaker BNot a huge number, but down.
Speaker BOkay, Right.
Speaker BBut guess what?
Speaker BOver the last 12 rate hiking cycles since 1955, stocks were up 75% of the time one year later.
Speaker AOh, yeah, and we, we talked about that.
Speaker BYou brought that up.
Speaker AYeah, yeah, we, we said that after a recession has been declared over, it usually takes about a year for 75 to 85% of the market to be back in the green.
Speaker ARight?
Speaker BYeah.
Speaker AIs the green or the black?
Speaker BBlack, Black, positive, red, Negative.
Speaker BYeah, Black and red.
Speaker AYeah, Black and yellow.
Speaker BBlack and yellow.
Speaker AYeah.
Speaker ATo be black and yellow.
Speaker ABut.
Speaker AAnd after three years, 100% of the time, you're back in the black.
Speaker BSo instead of buying the dip, my response to everybody has been this.
Speaker BYou ready?
Speaker BBut to just blow minds right now.
Speaker BOkay, people, People are driving the car.
Speaker BYou should probably brace yourself.
Speaker BDon't hit the brakes when you hear this, right?
Speaker ATo be on a T shirt.
Speaker BYeah.
Speaker BThis is going to be big.
Speaker BOkay.
Speaker AAll right.
Speaker BI don't want anybody driving to get into a car accident.
Speaker BI don't Want to be responsible for you going, oh, my God, he's a genius.
Speaker BAll right, so maybe it's not selling may and go away.
Speaker BOkay.
Speaker BMore like buy and main.
Speaker BPray.
Speaker BBuy me and pray.
Speaker BSponsored by the higher standard.
Speaker BYou gave me the gooseneck.
Speaker BI think you're flirting with me.
Speaker BAll right, so Netflix narrative.
Speaker BLet's talk about that.
Speaker BNetflix ad tier and password crackdowns are actually paying off.
Speaker BI'm the guy who's like, bruh, I can't share my passwords.
Speaker BI know you and ruin your passwords all the time.
Speaker ANo, for Netflix, I don't share passwords with anybody.
Speaker ANetflix.
Speaker BBecause people from Netflix listen to the show, right?
Speaker ANo, no, but YouTube TV.
Speaker BGooseneck.
Speaker BGooseneck, I get it.
Speaker ANo, YouTube TV.
Speaker AWe do.
Speaker ABut Netflix, you know, And I guess here's the thing a lot of people have told me about a couple different shows on Apple.
Speaker AWhatever, right?
Speaker BSeverance.
Speaker ASeverance, Right.
Speaker BSo good.
Speaker AAnd there's another one, too, that people have spoken about, but I'm like, everything I need is kind of on Netflix.
Speaker AIf I do want to watch something.
Speaker BNetflix gets some state gets stale sometimes.
Speaker BLike, you'll scroll through and be like, I seen that.
Speaker AI don't seen it.
Speaker ASeen it.
Speaker BI'm watching a Korean movie now on.
Speaker BOn Netflix.
Speaker BIt's all, like, dubbed.
Speaker BI love it.
Speaker AI'm watching.
Speaker AI'm watching two things now.
Speaker AGod, get upset.
Speaker BI am.
Speaker BI am already upset.
Speaker BI'm not about to.
Speaker BI'm already.
Speaker AWell, this is personal.
Speaker AThis is not with the wife, so she doesn't watch.
Speaker BIt makes it worse.
Speaker AWhat do you mean?
Speaker BYou could personally be watching the shows.
Speaker BI have personally told you.
Speaker AThis is.
Speaker BThis is that I know you will personally enjoy.
Speaker AThis is.
Speaker AThis is why you use your wife.
Speaker BAs a reason why you're not personally watching that.
Speaker BYou personal.
Speaker AYeah, you can't say that.
Speaker AThis is when I'm on the treadmill.
Speaker BJust fill in any exploit if you want, right?
Speaker AThis is when I'm on the treadmill in the morning doing my morning walks.
Speaker BThat's when I watch my shows, too.
Speaker BGod, I hate you so much.
Speaker ANo, you're a terrible person.
Speaker AOkay, here's my shows.
Speaker BYou're a liar.
Speaker ACourt of Gold right now.
Speaker BI don't even know what that is.
Speaker AShame.
Speaker AShame.
Speaker BIs that the shame you're feeling for.
Speaker ANot watching the shows in full swing?
Speaker BWhat the hell are these shows about?
Speaker AYeah, okay.
Speaker ACourt of Gold is.
Speaker AIs a documentary on the Olympics for the men's national basketball team.
Speaker BYou have a problem, okay?
Speaker AYou've got a legitimate addiction in sports and full swing.
Speaker AFull swing is for golf.
Speaker BI feel like you legitimately have, like, a real sports betting problem that you're not talking about on the show.
Speaker ANo, no, I've.
Speaker AI have intentionally never made one sports bet because I know myself.
Speaker BYeah.
Speaker BIt's gonna get carried away, and I.
Speaker AHere's.
Speaker AHere's the problem for me.
Speaker AI don't even look at the odds because I don't want to start thinking about it while I'm.
Speaker BDid you ever win the lottery?
Speaker BLike, I'm never going to see you again because you read a sports book every single day.
Speaker ANo.
Speaker ANo.
Speaker AI would come back and troll you every single day.
Speaker BThat's probably smart.
Speaker BThere's a guy I follow on.
Speaker BOn Instagram.
Speaker BHis name is King Hillbilly, who literally is the.
Speaker BThe weird nails painted grill.
Speaker BLike, all these bright colors.
Speaker BAlways wear.
Speaker AThat's what I would do to you.
Speaker BBright jerseys.
Speaker AYeah.
Speaker BWhere his sacks, his pants, low walks all weird, has a big truck, and everyone's like, how's this guy got money?
Speaker BLike, what does he do?
Speaker BHe literally went on and did like a.
Speaker BLike a reel about.
Speaker BI won the lottery.
Speaker BHis lottery ticket.
Speaker BHe showed it and, like, copied in color, and he's like, I want it from this.
Speaker BThis convenience store that I visit every day.
Speaker BI come here every day, buy a Pepsi and gamble some more.
Speaker BAnd, like, I imagine you would be King Hillbilly if you wanted.
Speaker BYeah.
Speaker BIf you got Instagram, look up Hillbilly.
Speaker BHe is a character, bro.
Speaker AYeah.
Speaker AHit up his comment section.
Speaker ATell him to come on the higher standard.
Speaker AWe.
Speaker AWe'll put him on.
Speaker BYeah.
Speaker BLet's talk about some financial literacy, because clearly you don't have it.
Speaker AYeah.
Speaker ALet's talk about what you should be doing with your money.
Speaker BI'm like, you want a million dollars, but, like, half that went to taxes, right?
Speaker AYeah.
Speaker BAnd then you spend 100,000 on that truck, which is a pretty badass truck, I'm not gonna lie.
Speaker AYeah.
Speaker BAnd then, you know.
Speaker BBut, hey, whatever.
Speaker BShout out to him.
Speaker BGood for him.
Speaker BAll right, so Netflix is.
Speaker AWait, wait, hold on real quick.
Speaker AI do feel like, though, I want to come back to this later.
Speaker BYou're a gambling addiction.
Speaker ANo, no.
Speaker AA lot of people play this game.
Speaker AI think it would be a fun game for us to structure for a show on, like, if you won the lottery.
Speaker AHere's a smart way to handle it.
Speaker BCan we also have a segment where we talk about the really bad decision?
Speaker AYeah, yeah, of course.
Speaker ANo, we.
Speaker AWe end it.
Speaker AWe come back full circle that with how we would Actually spend it.
Speaker BYou know what I would love to do?
Speaker BI would love to frame the lot.
Speaker BFirst of all, I don't.
Speaker BI don't play the lottery.
Speaker BI call it poor people tax.
Speaker BYeah.
Speaker BI don't do that.
Speaker AI call for people.
Speaker BYe.
Speaker BI would.
Speaker BIf I ever did and I won, I would frame the ticket.
Speaker BYeah, right.
Speaker BLike someone frames a jersey with a picture of me holding the ticket next to it.
Speaker AYeah.
Speaker BAnd make it big.
Speaker AYeah.
Speaker AI put it on a chain.
Speaker AI would.
Speaker AIt would be the emblem of a chain.
Speaker BNo, it would be big.
Speaker BIt would be like a shepherd farlay.
Speaker BLike, print in my office on a.
Speaker ASpinner, and it would just spin on.
Speaker BThe wall behind me.
Speaker AYeah.
Speaker BJust so everybody who talked to me has to look at it.
Speaker BLike, I want you to see that behind me at all times.
Speaker AYeah.
Speaker AAcknowledge the picture before you speak to me.
Speaker BYeah.
Speaker BAnd then I'm gonna do a lot of stuff, like.
Speaker BYeah, I'm gonna go ahead and say no to that.
Speaker BYou know, just.
Speaker BAnd just say no to, like, stuff that people are asking me to do that I clearly should do, but I'm not gonna do.
Speaker ARight.
Speaker BJust because I want you to know that I'm not doing it.
Speaker AYeah.
Speaker BYeah, I'm gonna go ahead and say no.
Speaker ABut go ahead and say no to that.
Speaker AYeah.
Speaker APut it on the next meeting.
Speaker BOr like, hey, Chris, can you.
Speaker BCan you attend this meeting?
Speaker BI'll think about that and get back to you.
Speaker BWait, what?
Speaker AWhat?
Speaker BYeah, I'm gonna think about that meeting in my attendance at it, and I'm gonna.
Speaker BI'm gonna circle back to you on it.
Speaker BYeah.
Speaker BI hear your need for it, and I'm gonna let you know.
Speaker AI don't feel like we'd last very long.
Speaker BYeah.
Speaker BAnd then I've got my own personal assistant.
Speaker BMy assistant has talked to, make meetings with me.
Speaker AOh, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah.
Speaker AI'm gonna.
Speaker AI'm gonna have an assistant to make sure my assistant's doing the assistant's job.
Speaker BYeah.
Speaker BCan you check in with the assistant, make sure that you guys are figuring out what I'm supposed to be doing tomorrow?
Speaker BAnd then you guys attend the meetings.
Speaker BLet me know how I did.
Speaker AYeah, yeah.
Speaker AWell, that's what.
Speaker AYou know, that's what 50 sent did.
Speaker AHe had an accountant for his accountant.
Speaker BDid he really?
Speaker AYeah.
Speaker BSmart.
Speaker BDon't trust that accountant, man.
Speaker AYeah.
Speaker AAnd caught that account embezzling some.
Speaker AOh, man.
Speaker BDamn, damn, damn.
Speaker BSaeed.
Speaker BCan't take your potty mouth anywhere.
Speaker A52 minutes, man.
Speaker BGooseneck hand gestures in this.
Speaker AThat was a brick.
Speaker AYeah, that was the break.
Speaker AYeah.
Speaker BI believe this is two shows of you cussing and one show for me.
Speaker AYeah, it's two to one.
Speaker BWe gotta have like a scorecard.
Speaker ABut you get.
Speaker AHold on.
Speaker AYeah.
Speaker AYou get away with a lot, though.
Speaker BWhat do you mean?
Speaker BYou.
Speaker BYou.
Speaker AYou know what?
Speaker BLike I'm cuss adjacent.
Speaker AYeah, you're custody.
Speaker AYou still say ass, and that's an animal.
Speaker ADamn.
Speaker BThat's a bridge.
Speaker BI'm cussing, Jason.
Speaker AYeah.
Speaker AYou know what you're doing?
Speaker BI can.
Speaker BI can take those out of context and put them anywhere they're totally appropriate.
Speaker ARight, right.
Speaker BMule shoot.
Speaker BMakes an ass.
Speaker BYeah, yeah.
Speaker BYou can say ship.
Speaker BYeah, ship it.
Speaker AYeah, ship it.
Speaker BAll right, so Netflix is set to report first quarter earnings after the bell on Thursday.
Speaker BTomorrow, the company is sitting as one of the best positioned big tech names amid uncertain economic environment dominated by President Trump's trade war.
Speaker BWhy?
Speaker BWell, amid recent market volatility, Netflix's strong subscription model with critical entertainment.
Speaker BCritical, questionable, but whatever, which historically has performed well in a recession, has made the stock a defense choice for investors.
Speaker BBank of America analyst Jessica Rafe Ehrlich wrote on Tuesday.
Speaker BI agree with that.
Speaker BThey clearly won the streaming wars.
Speaker BEverybody else is trying to catch up to what they did.
Speaker BRight.
Speaker BNetflix's stock is up 9% this year, standout when measured against year to date declines of 17% or more.
Speaker BFor its larger tech peers, including Apple, Amazon, Alphabet, and the S and P.
Speaker BIt's all off about 9% in 2025.
Speaker AWow.
Speaker BRight.
Speaker BSo S&P off 9%.
Speaker BBy the way.
Speaker BNot all of them.
Speaker BSorry.
Speaker BHere's what Wall street expects for the first quarter according to Bloomberg's consensus estimates.
Speaker BBecause, you know, I got to do some estimates every once in a while.
Speaker BRevenue of 10.5 billion versus 9.37 billion last year.
Speaker BNetflix's guidance was 10.42 billion.
Speaker BSo they issued guidance.
Speaker BThey said, hey, last year.
Speaker BAnd for those of you listening, Chris, I don't care about Jerome pal.
Speaker BHere's the educational portion of the show.
Speaker BOkay?
Speaker BHere's the part where you go, oh, I learned something today.
Speaker BWow.
Speaker AYeah.
Speaker BSide can't control his potty mouth.
Speaker BAnd here's how you look at guidance.
Speaker AYeah, Right.
Speaker BSo they last year put out $9.37 billion in revenue.
Speaker BThey issued guidance saying, hey, we expect next year to have 10.42 billion in revenue.
Speaker BThat's their guidance.
Speaker BWe expect to grow from this to that.
Speaker BRight.
Speaker BTheir revenue is looking to be about 10.5 billion.
Speaker BThat's a revenue beat.
Speaker BSo anytime you turn on cnbc, you Watch the news.
Speaker BSomeone says they had a revenue beat.
Speaker BThat's what they're saying.
Speaker BThey gave guidance.
Speaker BThey outperformed that guidance.
Speaker AYeah.
Speaker ANo different than when you go to your boss and you say, I'll probably get that report over to you by Friday.
Speaker AAnd then you end up delivering to them on Thursday.
Speaker BWhich side has no idea what that feels like?
Speaker ANo, under promising, over delivery.
Speaker AAnd that's what, that's what I'm great at.
Speaker AThis is what I do.
Speaker BThat's a way to stay in business, brother.
Speaker BI got you their earnings per share.
Speaker BEPS, as you often heard, $5 and $0.68 versus $5 and $0.28 last year.
Speaker BRight.
Speaker BSo they've now got earnings per share of 5.68 cents.
Speaker BLast year was 5.28.
Speaker BTheir guidance was 558.
Speaker BThey beat it by 10 cents a share.
Speaker BThat is an earnings per share beat.
Speaker AYeah.
Speaker ASo when, when they raise their prices, it's literally every one of their users.
Speaker BJust so a little fun fact about that.
Speaker BSo Netflix users and subscription numbers historically have always been a point of fodder and conversations like, oh, the subscriptions, other subscribers going up, are they going down?
Speaker AYeah.
Speaker BLittle point of note here, Saeed.
Speaker BThis will also be Netflix's first report that no longer reports subscriber numbers as the company focuses on driving greater engagement and top line growth.
Speaker AMeaning revenue smart by them because they know that if they do raise it, I mean, how many users they got?
Speaker A150 million.
Speaker BYou can look that up.
Speaker BBut it's, it's, let's just, let's just.
Speaker ASay 20 million users.
Speaker BI think in 20.
Speaker B20.
Speaker AWay more, actually.
Speaker BI actually have the number here.
Speaker BI'm just messing with you.
Speaker BI want you to work for no reason, so I'll give you that number in a second.
Speaker BBut when you're at, when you're top of the game, all you have is downside risk, right?
Speaker AExactly right.
Speaker BSo if all you have is downside risk, why go that route?
Speaker BIs it raining outside?
Speaker ASounds like it, yeah.
Speaker BWow.
Speaker BMaking it rain out here, kids.
Speaker BNo, it's really raining.
Speaker BI just want to point out we're not being douches.
Speaker BSo this first time they're not reporting, they're focus the top line revenue growth.
Speaker BAt the end of 2024, the company had 301.6 million global subscribers.
Speaker AOh.
Speaker ADouble what I.
Speaker AWow.
Speaker AWow.
Speaker BRight.
Speaker AYeah.
Speaker ASo exactly.
Speaker AAnd then if they reported the subscribers and that goes down, then that would just give more room for uncertainty for people to, you know, maybe sell.
Speaker ABut they know that if they raise it.
Speaker AOnly a certain percentage of the people might drop off, but revenue will still go up.
Speaker BYeah, yeah.
Speaker BSo Netflix said in its fourth quarter shareholder letter that it will disclose subscriber data in the future as we cross key milestones.
Speaker BSo we'll let you know when we feel like we've made some, you know, real milestone.
Speaker ANetflix is notorious for this.
Speaker AThey don't even let you see how many people have watched the videos.
Speaker BYeah.
Speaker AThey don't even give the comedians.
Speaker AI know the comedians that they sign and they do specials with.
Speaker AThey don't even give them the data.
Speaker BYeah.
Speaker BAnd they control that really, really tightly.
Speaker BBut it limits your ability to make moves based on some of these outside metrics.
Speaker BYou just kind of have to wait for some of these numbers to be, you know, out there to perform.
Speaker BBut say what you will, it's worked for them, you know, Massive company.
Speaker BNetflix has won the streaming wars.
Speaker BCase closed.
Speaker BMoffat.
Speaker BNathan Nathanson analyst Robert Fishman wrote in a client note last month.
Speaker BI don't know who that is or what the company that is, but sounds like he knows what he's talking about.
Speaker BBecause Netflix has more content, it drives better engagement, leading to more subscribers and possibly better pricing power in a virtuous cycle.
Speaker BAccording to Wall Street Journal, Netflix is targeting lofty financial goals, which include doubling its revenue by 2030 and reaching a valuation of $1 trillion.
Speaker BThe streamer's market cap is currently just north of 400 billion.
Speaker AJust to think where they started from, man.
Speaker AAnd how they wiped out Blockbuster.
Speaker BYeah.
Speaker BI was going to have that conversation with you on the show, but since you've already tapped it, dude, you went from mailing CDs.
Speaker AYeah.
Speaker BTo taking out Blockbuster, which was like a preeminent part.
Speaker AI remember, I remember when it first launched and people were getting DVDs in the mail, and I was thinking to.
Speaker BMyself, I thought it was weird back then.
Speaker AI.
Speaker AI was, I didn't sign up for.
Speaker AI was like, I don't really like, I still like the Blockbuster thing.
Speaker ALike, it's still.
Speaker ABecause nostalgia.
Speaker BI had strong reservations.
Speaker AYeah.
Speaker BBut then the idea of stuff just showing up to your house, I'm like, wait, you.
Speaker BBecause back then, you have to, like, pick some titles that you wanted.
Speaker BThey would ship them to you when they got them.
Speaker AWell, that was the thing.
Speaker ARight.
Speaker AIt's like, when I want to watch a movie, I want to go get it right then and there.
Speaker ACome on.
Speaker AAnd then I have to wait for it to in the mail.
Speaker ALike Planet no.
Speaker BBut streaming.
Speaker BSolve that.
Speaker AAnd then.
Speaker AAnd then they and then on demand, then they think about how many things.
Speaker BIn your life would be amazing on demand.
Speaker BYeah, right.
Speaker AThink about that.
Speaker AFrom like an explicit show.
Speaker ANot.
Speaker ANot a clean show, baby.
Speaker BThis on demand marriage.
Speaker AYeah.
Speaker AThis.
Speaker AThis on demand both ways.
Speaker BYeah.
Speaker BYo, coworker, this is an on demand job.
Speaker BYeah, right.
Speaker BLike, when I wants it right.
Speaker BBe very different.
Speaker BAnd I will say the Amazon's gotten pretty close to on demand for a lot of products.
Speaker BYou're like, wow.
Speaker BOr if you want to do the Owen Wilson, wow.
Speaker BAll right, so Netflix, is Netflix recession proof?
Speaker BYou're asking me side is what you're.
Speaker AAsking, Is it recession proof?
Speaker AI don't think.
Speaker AWhat is reset?
Speaker AWhat does recession proof mean?
Speaker BIn 2008 recessions, in the great financial crisis, in this particular set of circumstances, Netflix gained subscribers.
Speaker BPeople dropped cable and sought cheaper entertainment, which I'm already seeing people do now, by the way.
Speaker BYeah, right.
Speaker BWith about 300 million global subscribers, as we last heard, Netflix now has more members than the entire US Adult population.
Speaker BYeah, let that marinate.
Speaker BYeah, you got to write, you got a good business.
Speaker BAt that point, you're doing something right.
Speaker ARight.
Speaker BSo ditching subscriber counts was an interesting choice by then, but I thought some color here would be interesting.
Speaker BNetflix's decision to stop reporting subscribers numbers is bold and risky.
Speaker BIt's the equivalent of a gym chain saying, we're not counting members anymore.
Speaker BJust how much you sweat.
Speaker BSee, I'm out here.
Speaker AYeah.
Speaker ABut when you're at the top of the food chain, you.
Speaker AYou can get away with stuff like that, because crates.
Speaker AYeah.
Speaker AWhat are you gonna do?
Speaker AWhere are you gonna go?
Speaker BOnly place you gotta go is down.
Speaker ARight?
Speaker BSo.
Speaker ANo, no, but if you.
Speaker BBut you.
Speaker AIf you are that company, right.
Speaker AYou're the top of the food chain, and you got all these people wanting to invest in you, and you.
Speaker AYou think they're gonna stop investing in you because you stop showing that as long as you keep producing.
Speaker BWell, let me frame this in a different way.
Speaker BWall street.
Speaker BStop caring about how many subscribers you have, because you have more than everybody.
Speaker BThey now want to know how sticky those subscribers are.
Speaker AYeah.
Speaker BThey want to know how engaged in your content they are, how broad is their relationship with you.
Speaker BThink about this in the context of a bank.
Speaker BIf you have a checking account with a bank, you're a client of theirs, and that might be valuable.
Speaker BHow many customers do you have?
Speaker BBut if you're somebody who has a checking account, a credit card, a bank loan, a home loan, now you've got a deeper relationship.
Speaker BYou're Less likely to leave.
Speaker AWell, that was the one of the.
Speaker AIf I walked away from Wells Fargo learning anything, it was that model right there.
Speaker AI mean, and that's what.
Speaker AThat's what got them in trouble, right?
Speaker BYeah.
Speaker BWell, no, no, I should.
Speaker BThat's.
Speaker BThat's not what got them in trouble.
Speaker BWhat got them in trouble was.
Speaker BWas an over assertive sales culture, which was the end goal was that.
Speaker BThat.
Speaker BThat's.
Speaker BThat goal is the same for every company across the country.
Speaker A100.
Speaker AAnd when they would make you open up the account, they're like, make sure you sign them up for online banking.
Speaker BYeah.
Speaker ABecause you.
Speaker AIf you make someone take the time to set up the account log in, they're not going to want to redo that again.
Speaker BIt's like anybody listens to the show.
Speaker BIf you buy.
Speaker BIf you listen to our show and buy our merch, like you're a fan.
Speaker AYou're a fan.
Speaker BAnd if you haven't bought our merch, shame what's wrong with you.
Speaker BShame you're not deep into your relationship with us.
Speaker BYeah, this isn't sticky.
Speaker AIcky.
Speaker AYeah, we need a stickier relationship site.
Speaker BNow's the time where you do the gooseneck.
Speaker AOkay, got it.
Speaker BThat's what you are.
Speaker ALook, I held the follow through too.
Speaker BYeah, still a brick.
Speaker BAll right, so let's talk about retail sales.
Speaker BFor those of you saying, well, Chris, I still don't understand how to invest.
Speaker BWhat am I looking for?
Speaker BGot you, dog.
Speaker AWhat are you looking for right now?
Speaker AAre you looking for deals like.
Speaker ALike Warren B.
Speaker BNo.
Speaker BNo deals come to me.
Speaker BThat's not true at all.
Speaker BRetail sales jumped in March.
Speaker BThis surprised me.
Speaker BDriven by a rush to buy cars ahead of looming tariffs.
Speaker BAnd that was the answer.
Speaker BI was like, oh, that makes sense.
Speaker BTariffs are coming.
Speaker BGotta buy now.
Speaker BYeah, buy now.
Speaker AGotta buy right now.
Speaker BDave Ramsey.
Speaker AYeah.
Speaker AShout out.
Speaker BMoody's analytics chief economist Mark Zandi joined the Morning Brief to break down why that surge raises recession risk and may hurt future spending.
Speaker AWait, who was that?
Speaker BMark Zandy, my guy.
Speaker AWhat is it?
Speaker AMoody's.
Speaker BWhat?
Speaker BMoody's guy, Mark Zandy.
Speaker AOh, I thought you.
Speaker AI was.
Speaker BI call him Zaddy.
Speaker AI was expecting a different introduction.
Speaker AI thought you were gonna say my boy Zandy.
Speaker BYeah, my.
Speaker BMy guy.
Speaker AYeah.
Speaker BSo I actually saw him on.
Speaker BOn cnbc, and I sent him an email.
Speaker BLast time I went to his conference, out front was a car with license plate that said Zaddy on it.
Speaker AStop it.
Speaker BYeah.
Speaker BAnd I took a picture of it.
Speaker BI sent it to him.
Speaker BI'm like hey, did you drive here?
Speaker AHey.
Speaker AHey, is this where you park?
Speaker BHe thought I was like on drugs.
Speaker AHe's like what's wrong with you, Christopher?
Speaker BWhat?
Speaker BAnd you know for such a serious guy he's really cool to talk to.
Speaker BYeah, he's a nice guy.
Speaker BYeah.
Speaker BIt really surprised me me still.
Speaker BSo Zaddy was on the show.
Speaker BHe said how poor for the future Mark.
Speaker BThis was a question to him and I'm gonna.
Speaker BSo I just rather than read you the article, I just took his quote directly from the thing.
Speaker BSo the question asked him is how poorly for the future Mark.
Speaker BI wonder.
Speaker BI know, I know that you had a recession call for about 60% odds of a recession as of April 10.
Speaker BWhere does that call stand for you today?
Speaker BSo Zaddy responds about the same.
Speaker BIt's.
Speaker BI think it's I, it's.
Speaker BI think odds are better than even maybe matter that that we're will suffering.
Speaker BLet's do this again.
Speaker BThis is probably should have done this.
Speaker BNow I look back on it matter that will suffer recession starting at some point this year to be precise 60%.
Speaker BSo that hasn't changed.
Speaker BYou know I think there's still a 40% chance that we don't go into recession.
Speaker BAnd it depends on what the Trump administration does with the tariffs.
Speaker ASo he thinks the tariffs play a.
Speaker BBig role in if they take an off ramp here and continue to de escalate lower the tariffs that'll improve.
Speaker BThey'll have imposed or threatened to impose the and that figure is a way out, you know that things may cool off and we basically will not likely have.
Speaker BWe'll have a much greater chance of not having recessions.
Speaker BBut he's basically putting the tariff conversation front and center and saying hey, if we get aggressive with this and a trade war results that's bad for everybody.
Speaker BYou can almost guarantee a recession.
Speaker BYeah, that's what he's paraphrasing here.
Speaker BSo retail sales up but March's retail sales spike was led by autos largely due to the buyer's race to get ahead of the tariffs.
Speaker BRight.
Speaker BHistorical fact.
Speaker BIn 2002 when George W.
Speaker BBush imposed steel tariffs prices rose 16% but 200000 US jobs were lost in manufacturing downstream.
Speaker AYeah man.
Speaker AThis isn't and this actually goes across all different sectors today too.
Speaker AThere's it came out was builders confidence.
Speaker BOh yeah, yeah.
Speaker AThat was down to a seven month low.
Speaker AYeah, right.
Speaker AAnd it got me thinking because I remember when we first did our first tariff episode we knew that we were primarily talking about Canada and Mexico.
Speaker ARight.
Speaker AAnd we get a lot of lumber from Canada to.
Speaker AFor home building.
Speaker BYeah.
Speaker ARight.
Speaker BAnd you're like, shout out to the Canadian listeners.
Speaker BA lot of people who listen to this podcast are from Canada.
Speaker BI don't know how we got you, but we love you.
Speaker AThat's the Drake thing.
Speaker AThat's what it is.
Speaker BPeople do think you're Drake.
Speaker BYou get that a lot.
Speaker ANot anymore.
Speaker ANot with the gray, Mediterranean looking.
Speaker BDerek, what's up?
Speaker ANot a lot.
Speaker ABut so that kind of thing, man.
Speaker AThat, the homework affordability crisis.
Speaker AThat's not going to get any better anytime soon.
Speaker BNo.
Speaker AUnless, by the way.
Speaker BUnless we talked about that a whole lot lately.
Speaker AI know we haven't.
Speaker AAnd there's.
Speaker AThere was this whole thing that recently came out with Redfin and Zillow.
Speaker BCan you imagine if you're a first time home buyer so pissed off that nobody's gonna talk about this anymore?
Speaker AYeah.
Speaker AYou heard about this, right?
Speaker BNo.
Speaker ASo we had it on the, we talked about on the show when that the new law passed that now buyers are responsible to pay their own agents and sellers are responsible and they got to negotiate their own deals up front.
Speaker ARight.
Speaker ASo the, the workaround that some agents have been doing is apparently they'll.
Speaker AThey just post on the agent website.
Speaker ARight.
Speaker BYeah.
Speaker AJust so I've seen this.
Speaker BYeah.
Speaker AYou know, and then what they'll do is they'll go after a couple like week or so or two weeks, they'll head over to Redfin or Zillow and they'll just post it on there for like other agents to see.
Speaker ALike coming soon.
Speaker ARight.
Speaker ABut not for the entire public to see.
Speaker ASo Redfin and Zillow came out recently.
Speaker ALike they're shutting that whole operation down.
Speaker AIf you don't make it, if you don't make it public to everyone, then you're not listing it.
Speaker BAnd look, this, this is where you get a lot of.
Speaker AAnd I love that.
Speaker BAnd I do too.
Speaker BI think, I think it's very ethical.
Speaker AYeah.
Speaker BBut you get a lot of real estate agents taking advantage of, I would say not a well healed law and set of circumstances that, that are going to get gut checked a little bit here.
Speaker AI mean, have you spoken to.
Speaker AI know we got a lot of agents that listen to the show a lot.
Speaker AYeah.
Speaker AI was, I've been really curious to figure out what is.
Speaker ABecause for a long time, you know, the norm was obviously not the norm.
Speaker AIt was the industry standard that the seller would pay the agent's commission.
Speaker ARight.
Speaker BYeah.
Speaker AAnd I was waiting to see like.
Speaker AOkay, because that could still be negotiated to where the seller still does that.
Speaker AIt's not that it's out.
Speaker AOut completely.
Speaker ALike you could still negotiate that if you wanted to, but now that they're not required to.
Speaker ARight.
Speaker AI've been interested to see what is the norm that comes out of this.
Speaker ALike what's the most practice way.
Speaker BSo you don't know this site, but a little teaser action here.
Speaker BSo I am rushing to finish the studio, the, the, the new studio space by May 1, largely because we have a litany of guests that we have lined up to come on the show because itching.
Speaker BThey're itching to come on.
Speaker BBut one of them is a very, very well known and respected real estate agent slash broker who owns a very big company who, who is going to come on and he's going to talk about a lot of the things that he's seeing in his niche.
Speaker BNot only in his niche because it's one of those really high ultra net worth markets, but also with the clients that he serves and kind of the greater macro real estate community.
Speaker BHe's very much plugged in.
Speaker AHe's plugged in.
Speaker AOkay.
Speaker BAnd I thought that'd be a really interesting episode because number one, if you're a real estate agent or professional and you're in the space, this is somebody who you probably know.
Speaker AYeah.
Speaker BAnd you probably want to hear this person speak.
Speaker BJust a mindset position situation.
Speaker BGreat.
Speaker BBut if you're not in the real estate space, this is also somebody you want to listen to because they'll give you some perspective that I think will be.
Speaker AYeah.
Speaker ASome insight.
Speaker AI, I know plenty of like my friends that were home shopping that they didn't even realize that back then before the law changed that the seller was responsible to pay for their agents commissions and they're like, oh, I just stepped into like 15 grand, 10 grand, whatever it was.
Speaker ARight.
Speaker ALike that.
Speaker AThat's, that's awesome.
Speaker AYou know, but now it's like, wait a minute, who's going to be responsible for this and how much?
Speaker ABecause now that has to get negotiated up front.
Speaker BYeah.
Speaker AAnd you, you got to wonder like, man, if I don him enough, is he gonna really.
Speaker BThey gonna dip.
Speaker AYeah.
Speaker AOr are they not gonna do like their best work or you know what I mean?
Speaker BYeah.
Speaker BWhich, you know, I, I gotta make some motions but we'll talk about another show.
Speaker AYeah.
Speaker BBut let's.
Speaker BLet me give you some data about Zaddy and let's wrap this bad boy up.
Speaker BYou guys listen to us for a long time and I know you're thinking, God, I can listen to these two all day long.
Speaker BBut yeah, we don't want to over sensitize you.
Speaker AYeah, right.
Speaker AYeah.
Speaker BToo much stigma.
Speaker BRight?
Speaker AThat's what we had to remove.
Speaker AOne episode a week.
Speaker AWe had to go, there's too much.
Speaker BThis is like crack rock for your brain.
Speaker BFor your brain.
Speaker BAll right, so Zaddy, my guy, Mark Zandy recession call hasn't changed at the current climate.
Speaker BAnd Moody's did happen to predict the 2008 Great Financial Crisis correctly, which gives his take more weight than your average tick tock economist.
Speaker BOkay, you're out here listening to Humphrey Yang.
Speaker BGood for you, Patrick.
Speaker BBet David also fine.
Speaker BNo disrespect to either gentleman, but Zaddy's the guy.
Speaker BMark Zandi's the guy.
Speaker BLook him up, follow him.
Speaker BHe's on.
Speaker BOn.
Speaker BHe's on X.
Speaker BHe doesn't respond to messages.
Speaker ABut dude, Humphrey Yang didn't need to catch a stray right there.
Speaker AWhy'd you do.
Speaker AHe's such a nice guy.
Speaker BNice guy.
Speaker AI'm just saying compare him next to.
Speaker BPvd because I respect him.
Speaker AThat's so disrespectful, bro.
Speaker BPBE was universally respected.
Speaker BYeah, yeah.
Speaker AHe was so lovable.
Speaker BYeah.
Speaker ABut look, look, the Yankees were like, here, we'll give you a piece.
Speaker BI still, I still got respect for him.
Speaker BMulti level marketing skills scam or not, I still got respect for.
Speaker AYeah, yeah, yeah.
Speaker BFor him.
Speaker BBut you know, man, Humphrey Yang catches strays, bro.
Speaker BWould you rather be Graham Stephan?
Speaker ANo, no, I'd be.
Speaker AYeah, I'd rather.
Speaker AYeah.
Speaker AGraham 7.
Speaker ACatch the strays now.
Speaker BYeah.
Speaker BValid point.
Speaker AYeah.
Speaker BMark Zandi suggests that the economy has no, quote, margin for error, for policy error.
Speaker BThat one tariff misstep and you could have a recession almost overnight is basically what he's suggesting.
Speaker BSo he's.
Speaker BHe's saying, is that fragile that week.
Speaker BSo consumer behavior and recession vibes and the dilemma that we're in.
Speaker BFor those of you who get in all of our DMs and you're asking, hey, look, like, what should.
Speaker BHow should I feel?
Speaker BShould I buy the dip?
Speaker BShould I not?
Speaker BShould I buy this dog?
Speaker BWhat should we looking at?
Speaker BWe give you some stuff to work with this episode, but I want to.
Speaker BI want to leave you with some.
Speaker BSome dessert.
Speaker BI want to give you something that you go home and go, you know what?
Speaker BThat meal was good.
Speaker ABut the creme brulee.
Speaker BThe creme brulee, though, man.
Speaker AYo.
Speaker BWow.
Speaker AYeah.
Speaker AYeah.
Speaker BOkay, so let's pull forward spending and talk about a future drought Here.
Speaker BThe car buying rush in March is a classic pull forward spending behavior.
Speaker AOkay.
Speaker BRight.
Speaker BBut you can't look at that as a proxy for where it's going.
Speaker BYou can almost wager it's going to go the other way until such time as this tariff situation is resolved.
Speaker BAnd I don't know that we've seen anything on the horizon.
Speaker BSo people, people buy now to beat tariffs, but then this front loaded buying means even if tariffs do get resolved, there won't be buying in the future at the same cadence that it would be in a normalized economy.
Speaker BSo expect weaker retail numbers over the summer.
Speaker BYou can expect it to happen sponsored by the higher standard.
Speaker AThere you go.
Speaker BWhen you see weaker retail summer spending, I want you to go, damn those guys.
Speaker BThat's not your dom, Chris.
Speaker ARight.
Speaker AI mean, when the, when the people over, the lovely people over at the National Bureau of Economic Research, when they wake up, are they still there?
Speaker AThere's, I think they're still there.
Speaker BThey've been allocated to like those, those sites, they just look at the stars.
Speaker AYeah.
Speaker BAnd their sole job is looking for aliens.
Speaker ARight.
Speaker BThey've been repositioned.
Speaker ARight.
Speaker AWhen, when they do come out and declare a recession.
Speaker ARight.
Speaker AAnd when they start to look at things, that shows signs of a recession.
Speaker ARight.
Speaker AThis is why we talk about some of these data points.
Speaker AThey're talking about gdp, they're talking about real income, employment, industrial production.
Speaker BYeah.
Speaker AAnd they're talking about wholesale retail sales.
Speaker AWholesale, Wholesale, yeah.
Speaker ABe careful.
Speaker BHoliday Inn.
Speaker AHoliday Inn, yeah.
Speaker BWell, if creme brulee isn't your thing, how about a molten lava cake?
Speaker ANo, that's that you leave feeling gross with that.
Speaker BNot all the time.
Speaker BSometimes you feel warm in the inside.
Speaker AOh, no, you can't feel good after eating lava cake.
Speaker BCome on, you don't want that molten, warm molten lava.
Speaker ANo, no, no.
Speaker AThat's down your throat.
Speaker AThat's not, that ain't my cup of tea, bro.
Speaker BIt's not.
Speaker AI, I size.
Speaker AI euro stepped that one.
Speaker AI was like, nope, I'm going right around this.
Speaker BJust molten lava cake.
Speaker AYeah.
Speaker BVery chocolatey and rich.
Speaker AOkay.
Speaker AFlavorful, chocolatey lava.
Speaker AOkay, I got it, I got it.
Speaker BTariffs affect supply chains in layers.
Speaker BOkay?
Speaker ALayers.
Speaker BIt's not, it's not just jamming in and it's done.
Speaker BRight.
Speaker BIt affects other things, of course.
Speaker BOkay.
Speaker BSteel tariffs make cars more expensive.
Speaker ATrickle, if you will.
Speaker BA trickle effect.
Speaker BYeah, yeah.
Speaker BTech tariffs affect appliance costs, consumer electronics, even home improvement tools.
Speaker BRight.
Speaker BSo everything as we know gets more expensive.
Speaker BSo it's not Just a tax on imports, which we all feel that it's a tax on us.
Speaker BThat's what it really is.
Speaker BRight?
Speaker BIt's a tax on your fridge, your iPhone, and your ability to fix your garage door.
Speaker AOh, gosh.
Speaker BSo you need to understand these things will become more expensive.
Speaker BAnd as a result, even if consumers are still financially strong by the summertime, you've seen a pull forward in spending, and now you're going to have more expensive products.
Speaker BThere will be a drop in consumer spending in the summer of this year.
Speaker AOkay?
Speaker AAnd I got a perfect little story about this to wrap up.
Speaker BIf you wrap up the show with a terrible story, I'm just telling you right now, I will put baby powder on my hand and I will slap you like LeBron James.
Speaker BI know that I wanted to slap.
Speaker AYeah.
Speaker BStephen A.
Speaker BSmith.
Speaker AStephen A.
Speaker AYeah.
Speaker AEssay.
Speaker AThey call him.
Speaker BCome on, man.
Speaker AYeah, they call him that.
Speaker AIt's s.
Speaker AYou can't call him that.
Speaker BNo, that's what they call him.
Speaker BI don't care, man.
Speaker AThe homies call him that.
Speaker BThat bro.
Speaker ASa.
Speaker ASteven A.
Speaker BThat's not appropriate.
Speaker BI would.
Speaker BI would object to that nickname.
Speaker AThat's what they call him.
Speaker AI'm just saying what they say on live television.
Speaker BWhy don't they just call them sassy on the mouse?
Speaker AOn the mouse.
Speaker BSas.
Speaker AThey use sassy.
Speaker AThis is how you know when you start to see, like, real life, things start to change and you're like, wait a minute, are we.
Speaker AAre we starting to go through it?
Speaker AI was leaving the office the other day, okay.
Speaker BAt a balmy 7:00pm huh?
Speaker AYeah.
Speaker AWell, here at a time at a.
Speaker AAt a decent hour, where.
Speaker AWhat I mean by that is the valet was still open.
Speaker BOkay.
Speaker AAnd park next to me in general population.
Speaker BGP.
Speaker AYeah.
Speaker AGP was in McLaren.
Speaker AWhat's going on, bro?
Speaker BWhat do you mean?
Speaker AHow you not valet a McLaren?
Speaker ATo me, that's a real tell sign of.
Speaker AOf the times.
Speaker AWho's parking a McLaren in general?
Speaker APop, can I be honest?
Speaker BI'm upset a lot of people right now.
Speaker BI'm gonna break some hearts.
Speaker AOkay?
Speaker BOkay.
Speaker BMcLaren is not a real exotic.
Speaker BI said it.
Speaker AIt's still very expensive, though.
Speaker BIt's a faux Ferrari.
Speaker AYeah, it is.
Speaker BI said it.
Speaker BYeah.
Speaker AI like Ferraris better myself.
Speaker BWhen the door handle jiggle, jiggle.
Speaker BRight?
Speaker AYeah, yeah, yeah, yeah.
Speaker BI'm not impressed.
Speaker ABut I walked by it, and I.
Speaker BHave a lot of people who drive McLaren's like, oh, I love the LP, whatever, blah, blah, blah.
Speaker BFive.
Speaker BThis.
Speaker BFive.
Speaker BI don't care, bro.
Speaker AYeah.
Speaker BY'all really want a Ferrari.
Speaker AThat's what you really want.
Speaker BBut you got a McLaren.
Speaker AWhy?
Speaker AI thought McLaren's are more expensive.
Speaker BSome are, some aren't.
Speaker AReally?
Speaker BYeah.
Speaker BI'm a Ferrari.
Speaker AI'm not gonna lie.
Speaker AAs a kid growing up, I always heard McLaren and I.
Speaker BThey were very different back then, you know?
Speaker AI know.
Speaker AAnd then heard.
Speaker AHeard of Lamborghinis, heard of Ferraris.
Speaker ARight, right.
Speaker AAnd I had seen probably five to ten Lamborghinis, like, as a kid, maybe like two or three Ferraris.
Speaker ANever saw.
Speaker BI see that many a day now.
Speaker AI know.
Speaker ANo, like, on the drive home, you see it, like, you're gonna.
Speaker BYou're bouncing.
Speaker BBut us, bro.
Speaker AWhat?
Speaker AAnd there's so many Rolls Royces around.
Speaker ALike, what's going on?
Speaker BYeah.
Speaker BStop it.
Speaker AEnough, bro.
Speaker BI had a friend pull up the other day in a Cullen.
Speaker AWhat?
Speaker BYeah, the orange interior.
Speaker BAnd I walked up to his car and I'm like, man.
Speaker AYeah.
Speaker ACome on, man.
Speaker BInsert expletive here.
Speaker BYou.
Speaker AYeah, I was.
Speaker BI was pissed, bro.
Speaker BI'm like, what is this?
Speaker BHe's like, what?
Speaker BIt's a nice car.
Speaker BI'm like, man, you stop.
Speaker AYou don't need to be doing all this.
Speaker BBuy yourself a Rivian, like a normal person.
Speaker BDamn it.
Speaker AToo much?
Speaker BYeah.
Speaker AYeah.
Speaker BBright orange interior.
Speaker ANot with.
Speaker BIt had his name, like, you know, embossed in the background.
Speaker AYeah.
Speaker BNot even embroidered.
Speaker BEmbossed.
Speaker AEmbossed.
Speaker BI'm like, come on, man.
Speaker AYeah.
Speaker BThis is absurd.
Speaker AHe wanted you to see it, too, huh?
Speaker AHe wanted you to see it.
Speaker BI just want everybody to know if you ever see a black Cullinan pull up with the orange interior.
Speaker AYeah.
Speaker BAnd there's an emoji, eggplant, embossed in the headrest.
Speaker BThat's me.
Speaker BYeah, that's me.
Speaker AThat's yours.
Speaker BI put it there.
Speaker AI used to tell people if I ever hit the lotto, which I'm not going to, because I don't play, I would.
Speaker AI would buy one of those exotic cars, and I would just get it, like, in, like, a boring, like, navy blue.
Speaker ABlue.
Speaker BYeah.
Speaker BRight.
Speaker ABecause it's like, oh, he's got a boring navy blue one.
Speaker AThat means the obnoxious yellow ones at home somewhere.
Speaker ASo I'm already.
Speaker BI don't think anybody's ever thought that.
Speaker AYeah.
Speaker AI'm accounting for two.
Speaker BThat's just you and your imaginary friend, you guys sitting on the table, talking about that.
Speaker AYeah.
Speaker BNot watching Severance together.
Speaker AYeah.
Speaker ACourt of Gold.
Speaker AYou got it.
Speaker BLaughing about.
Speaker BI'll watch.
Speaker BYou gotta go.
Speaker BNo, you gotta watch.
Speaker BIt.
Speaker AYeah, it's amazing.
Speaker BYou watch Loki?
Speaker AYeah.
Speaker AAnd Full swing.
Speaker AIt's great.
Speaker BThe letter after eu.
Speaker AYeah.
Speaker AYou get creative.
Speaker BI gotta come up with creative ways in a way.
Speaker AWell done.
Speaker BYeah.
Speaker AAll right, so if you've stuck around this long and you haven't actually left us an honest 5 star review, now would be the time.
Speaker APlease head over to Apple or Spotify.
Speaker BI'll make it easier.
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Speaker BLeave a comment on every damn site you watch us on.
Speaker AYeah.
Speaker AAnd if you're over on YouTube, hit that like, button.
Speaker ASubscribe.
Speaker ARing that notification bell.
Speaker AI know we're an hour and 20 in, you probably fell off button, but it means a lot to us.
Speaker BNobody fell off.
Speaker BCanadians are loyal.
Speaker AThe Canadians are very Canadians.
Speaker BListen to the end every single episode.
Speaker AYeah.
Speaker AShout out.
Speaker AHonestly, shout out to the listeners that watch us on their TVs at home in the living room.
Speaker BYeah, man.
Speaker AYeah, man.
Speaker AI'm like.
Speaker BAlways weirds me out.
Speaker AI'm like, that's cool, man.
Speaker BIt's cool, but it wears me out.
Speaker AIt does.
Speaker AYeah.
Speaker ALike, I'm like, man, yeah.
Speaker BI almost.
Speaker BI almost want you not to look at my face.
Speaker AYeah.
Speaker BAll right.
Speaker BGood night, everybody.
Speaker AGood night, everybody.
Speaker BBye.
Speaker BOkay, bye.
Speaker AThe reverse.
Speaker BYeah, the reverse.
Speaker BWho knows?