1 00:00:03,630 --> 00:00:04,230 Hello listeners. 2 00:00:04,230 --> 00:00:06,960 Welcome to another episode of the Jacob Shapiro podcast. 3 00:00:06,960 --> 00:00:11,160 Back on the podcast is fan favorite and one of my personal favorites, Kamran bha. 4 00:00:11,790 --> 00:00:16,379 from The New Lines Institute, I brought Kamran in, not just to talk about the 5 00:00:16,379 --> 00:00:19,290 Middle East, but specifically to give a Pakistani perspective on what's 6 00:00:19,290 --> 00:00:20,730 going on between India and Pakistan. 7 00:00:20,730 --> 00:00:22,740 Still have a couple more voices that are gonna come on. 8 00:00:23,250 --> 00:00:24,120 last week I thought. 9 00:00:24,890 --> 00:00:27,740 something was imminent and it's still imminent, which tells you that 10 00:00:27,740 --> 00:00:30,470 things haven't happened, but Cran does a good job of giving us a sober 11 00:00:30,470 --> 00:00:32,960 perspective on that and some other things happening in the Middle East. 12 00:00:33,620 --> 00:00:36,260 we recorded Tuesday, May 6th, around 2:00 PM Central. 13 00:00:36,260 --> 00:00:38,540 This will be out quick, but if anything happens between now and 14 00:00:38,540 --> 00:00:39,650 when you listen to this podcast. 15 00:00:39,930 --> 00:00:40,410 That's why. 16 00:00:40,710 --> 00:00:43,770 Otherwise, you can email me at jacob@jacobshapiro.com. 17 00:00:43,770 --> 00:00:46,740 As always, if you have any questions, comments, concerns, book 18 00:00:46,740 --> 00:00:50,280 recommendations, et cetera, take care of the people that you love. 19 00:00:50,280 --> 00:00:51,120 Cheers, and see you out there. 20 00:00:56,700 --> 00:00:57,450 All right, come on. 21 00:00:57,450 --> 00:00:57,990 It is. 22 00:00:57,990 --> 00:00:59,565 Tuesday May 6th. 23 00:00:59,565 --> 00:01:01,275 It's 2:08 PM Central time. 24 00:01:02,565 --> 00:01:04,845 we are not gonna sit on this episode very long 'cause I don't know how 25 00:01:04,845 --> 00:01:07,635 long this episode's gonna stay current with the way things are going. 26 00:01:08,655 --> 00:01:11,655 we've got Pakistan and India still threatening each other with war. 27 00:01:11,895 --> 00:01:15,315 We've got, potential US Iran negotiations. 28 00:01:15,530 --> 00:01:18,470 We've got Israel threatening to basically take over the Gaza Strip. 29 00:01:18,470 --> 00:01:22,130 We've got the Houthis sending missiles to Tel Aviv airport and Israel responding. 30 00:01:22,670 --> 00:01:24,140 we've got developments in Syria. 31 00:01:24,140 --> 00:01:26,450 We've got spicy things according to you happening with 32 00:01:26,450 --> 00:01:27,890 Turkey and the United States. 33 00:01:29,330 --> 00:01:31,940 so no shortage of things to talk about, and you can take it to the 34 00:01:31,940 --> 00:01:35,990 wider angle if you want, but I did, we had an Indian analyst on the podcast 35 00:01:35,990 --> 00:01:38,840 last week, and I know you're not a Pakistani analyst, but you are Pakistani, 36 00:01:38,840 --> 00:01:40,400 or at least come from Pakistan. 37 00:01:41,420 --> 00:01:42,735 and if memory Serves was born there. 38 00:01:43,215 --> 00:01:47,295 Was born there and if memory serves family from the Kashmir area. 39 00:01:47,505 --> 00:01:47,985 Am I right? 40 00:01:47,985 --> 00:01:49,035 Did I remember that correctly? 41 00:01:49,455 --> 00:01:53,175 Yeah, we were one of those, the forefathers lived 42 00:01:53,175 --> 00:01:54,255 there for about a century. 43 00:01:54,840 --> 00:01:55,860 Okay, there you go. 44 00:01:56,340 --> 00:02:00,330 So I, at least wanted to start by asking you what your take is on 45 00:02:00,330 --> 00:02:05,670 the sudden uptick in, I don't know, tensions, aggressiveness, potential 46 00:02:05,670 --> 00:02:07,200 war between Pakistan and India. 47 00:02:07,200 --> 00:02:10,079 And then we can dive into all of these other earthquakes happening 48 00:02:10,079 --> 00:02:13,440 throughout, our favorite and most stable region of the world. 49 00:02:14,280 --> 00:02:17,665 but, start off by telling me from your point of view, What is going on? 50 00:02:17,845 --> 00:02:19,195 what happened in Kashmir? 51 00:02:19,195 --> 00:02:20,755 Who are the people that are behind this? 52 00:02:20,995 --> 00:02:24,265 is it a, I've seen some Pakistani say it's an Indian false flag 53 00:02:24,265 --> 00:02:26,185 operation to get the US on their side. 54 00:02:26,395 --> 00:02:30,175 it's, it seems very mysterious, so help us make, make sense of it all. 55 00:02:31,555 --> 00:02:34,585 let me start from where you left off. 56 00:02:34,945 --> 00:02:37,045 The US is already on India's side. 57 00:02:37,785 --> 00:02:40,665 So they don't need to get India. 58 00:02:40,935 --> 00:02:42,975 India doesn't need to get the US on their side. 59 00:02:43,755 --> 00:02:49,245 And the reason for that is India is part of the bigger strategic objective 60 00:02:49,245 --> 00:02:52,575 of the United States when it comes to meeting the challenge of China. 61 00:02:54,405 --> 00:03:00,435 India obviously has the role to play in maritime spaces, the 62 00:03:00,435 --> 00:03:02,055 Pacific, but those are like. 63 00:03:02,820 --> 00:03:03,840 Future effects. 64 00:03:04,380 --> 00:03:07,830 They, those are not going to materialize anytime soon. 65 00:03:07,830 --> 00:03:09,270 So those are future planning. 66 00:03:09,780 --> 00:03:13,980 But well before that, in the current moment where you have a tariff trade 67 00:03:13,980 --> 00:03:21,120 war going on and reaching boiling point, you want, the United States wants to 68 00:03:22,470 --> 00:03:27,330 reduce exposure dependency on China when it comes to manufacturing and imports. 69 00:03:28,290 --> 00:03:32,490 So the hope is that, or the hope has been that India would 70 00:03:32,490 --> 00:03:35,940 be one of those destinations we saw in the last couple of weeks. 71 00:03:35,940 --> 00:03:40,470 Apple announced that by 2026, I don't remember who was the beginning 72 00:03:40,470 --> 00:03:45,870 or the end, that they will shift a sizable amount of their manufacturing. 73 00:03:46,860 --> 00:03:48,300 to, India. 74 00:03:48,450 --> 00:03:52,530 Whether that happens or not remains to be seen, but I wanted to flag that as an 75 00:03:52,530 --> 00:03:58,770 example of, the broader dynamics that are happening from an Indian point of view. 76 00:03:58,890 --> 00:03:59,910 This is all great. 77 00:04:00,390 --> 00:04:07,020 And today, just today, the IMF announced that this year, I'm not sure at, 78 00:04:07,020 --> 00:04:08,940 what point I didn't read the details. 79 00:04:09,660 --> 00:04:14,160 India will overtake the Japan as the fourth largest economy of the world. 80 00:04:14,535 --> 00:04:18,195 So they're going from five to four and they're aiming for three. 81 00:04:18,255 --> 00:04:25,155 They know that the jump from replacing China is gonna take a long, time. 82 00:04:25,185 --> 00:04:28,485 'cause of the variance between the two economies is just so massive. 83 00:04:29,415 --> 00:04:31,065 So that's the Indian goal. 84 00:04:31,785 --> 00:04:36,135 In other words, India wants to play major league global level, 85 00:04:36,165 --> 00:04:40,485 geoeconomics, geotech, geopolitics, however you wanna describe it. 86 00:04:41,535 --> 00:04:45,765 and it sees the current moment of US China thing hitting up as a moment 87 00:04:45,765 --> 00:04:47,295 in which it can assert itself. 88 00:04:47,385 --> 00:04:54,105 Now this is the backdrop in which you have this attack on April 22nd, in 89 00:04:54,105 --> 00:04:57,705 the Indian controlled Kash town of be. 90 00:04:59,460 --> 00:05:00,150 To your listeners. 91 00:05:00,150 --> 00:05:04,289 I just wanna say I use the word controlled because I also say Pakistani controlled. 92 00:05:04,289 --> 00:05:08,580 I just don't want to get into, the semantics of occupation 93 00:05:08,580 --> 00:05:09,690 and non-occupational. 94 00:05:10,109 --> 00:05:16,169 So control is a neutral word anyway, so the attack takes place and I. 95 00:05:16,169 --> 00:05:17,730 There aren't a whole lot of suspects. 96 00:05:17,760 --> 00:05:18,030 Okay. 97 00:05:18,030 --> 00:05:19,080 Let's just be honest. 98 00:05:19,140 --> 00:05:19,470 Okay? 99 00:05:20,040 --> 00:05:26,100 Do, and I was on a Pakistani television show this morning and I knowing, how I 100 00:05:26,100 --> 00:05:32,010 would be savaged and whatnot, I still took the, liberty of trying to explain this. 101 00:05:32,010 --> 00:05:36,690 And I said, look, I. Whether it's non-state actors in Pakistan doing 102 00:05:36,690 --> 00:05:42,030 it on their own without official sanction, whether it was elements of 103 00:05:42,030 --> 00:05:47,039 the Pakistan state running their own little operation in, concert with 104 00:05:47,039 --> 00:05:51,300 the non-state actors, the proxies, these Islamist militants, or whether 105 00:05:51,300 --> 00:05:57,060 this was an officially commissioned strike, or hit, doesn't matter. 106 00:05:57,180 --> 00:06:02,550 The point is there, the origin of these attacks historically. 107 00:06:03,390 --> 00:06:05,010 Has been from Pakistan. 108 00:06:05,850 --> 00:06:10,080 And so this idea of a false flag operation, I get it. 109 00:06:10,380 --> 00:06:10,680 Why? 110 00:06:10,680 --> 00:06:12,240 That's the Pakistani narrative. 111 00:06:12,930 --> 00:06:13,800 Do I agree with it? 112 00:06:13,800 --> 00:06:14,250 No. 113 00:06:15,270 --> 00:06:21,030 so the Indians are looking at this and saying, okay, that there 114 00:06:21,030 --> 00:06:22,410 are two things that they see. 115 00:06:22,440 --> 00:06:24,330 One is that. 116 00:06:25,455 --> 00:06:29,625 We're trying to play a major league and we're still being sucked into 117 00:06:29,625 --> 00:06:35,414 this old rivalry within, Pakistan that we are trying to leave behind. 118 00:06:35,414 --> 00:06:44,115 That's one perspective in India, but because of nationalism, religious 119 00:06:44,115 --> 00:06:51,284 nationalism and Pakistan has become this emotional thing in India over the years. 120 00:06:54,360 --> 00:06:58,140 your reason tells you don't be distracted. 121 00:06:58,500 --> 00:06:58,830 Okay? 122 00:06:59,070 --> 00:07:00,180 This is gonna happen. 123 00:07:01,110 --> 00:07:03,900 You are gonna do your little thing, but don't make this the focus 124 00:07:03,900 --> 00:07:08,130 point or the focal point of your efforts on the foreign policy front. 125 00:07:08,160 --> 00:07:10,860 'cause it could distract you from the bigger goal. 126 00:07:10,860 --> 00:07:14,580 And I think this is what the vice president, if I had to guess, 127 00:07:14,730 --> 00:07:19,860 probably said, to his, counterparts and people he met in India that. 128 00:07:20,955 --> 00:07:26,625 We get it, that this is happening, but do what you have to do, 129 00:07:26,955 --> 00:07:28,515 but keep your eye on the ball. 130 00:07:29,115 --> 00:07:31,185 this is distraction. 131 00:07:31,845 --> 00:07:33,735 and there's much more to be achieved. 132 00:07:34,035 --> 00:07:36,375 Look at the current moment, and we know you want it. 133 00:07:36,975 --> 00:07:42,615 So I think the American challenge is how to take the Indian imperative and say, 134 00:07:42,645 --> 00:07:44,955 okay, we'll do both at the same time. 135 00:07:45,015 --> 00:07:47,145 The reason why both cannot happen. 136 00:07:48,059 --> 00:07:51,119 Because if, and there's another element to it. 137 00:07:51,119 --> 00:07:58,049 The other element is since 2016 under this Prime Minister Renda Modi, India 138 00:07:58,049 --> 00:08:06,960 moved from this idea that we will threaten military action but will not cross the 139 00:08:06,960 --> 00:08:10,650 border and do, strikes inside Pakistan. 140 00:08:11,309 --> 00:08:14,549 So you remember, you and I, think at the time were. 141 00:08:15,615 --> 00:08:23,745 FI think, when the, 2016, special Forces operation was mounted, 142 00:08:23,835 --> 00:08:25,425 it was called Surgical Strikes. 143 00:08:26,325 --> 00:08:27,465 Pakistanis denied it. 144 00:08:27,465 --> 00:08:29,235 They called it firing across the border. 145 00:08:29,925 --> 00:08:33,315 My suspicion is that there were some forces that went across the border, 146 00:08:33,315 --> 00:08:36,135 short-lived operation, quick and dirty. 147 00:08:36,345 --> 00:08:40,005 You hit and you basically, withdraw all back. 148 00:08:41,054 --> 00:08:43,365 That set up an expectation that, hey. 149 00:08:44,265 --> 00:08:47,175 That's the dividing line between the Indian response to 150 00:08:47,175 --> 00:08:52,545 Pakistan based, militant attacks in Kashmir and India proper. 151 00:08:53,355 --> 00:08:55,515 And so there's a whole history, and I don't want to get into that, 152 00:08:55,905 --> 00:08:57,915 but that was the turning point. 153 00:08:58,064 --> 00:09:00,495 Now, what that did was that okay, the next time this 154 00:09:00,495 --> 00:09:03,620 happens, we have to do something. 155 00:09:04,530 --> 00:09:04,949 Vigor. 156 00:09:05,100 --> 00:09:08,280 So this was like a, if this was like a ho a pen trick, 157 00:09:08,939 --> 00:09:09,870 next time it happened to vigor. 158 00:09:09,870 --> 00:09:13,110 And that's what happened in 2019 when we had the suicide 159 00:09:13,110 --> 00:09:18,209 bombing of the Paramilitary Forces Bus in Obama, in Kashmir. 160 00:09:18,600 --> 00:09:22,110 We had the Indians for the first time since the 1971 war, 161 00:09:23,220 --> 00:09:24,540 this side to do airstrikes. 162 00:09:24,540 --> 00:09:28,050 And not just in Pakistani controlled Kashmir, but Pakistan. 163 00:09:29,640 --> 00:09:35,075 in the town of Balakot, which is in, the Northwestern province called the 164 00:09:35,490 --> 00:09:39,240 Dominated, majority, majority, province. 165 00:09:39,240 --> 00:09:44,850 Anyway, so what the Pakistanis did is they retaliated, by striking, 166 00:09:45,540 --> 00:09:50,490 at a brigade headquarters on the Indian side of the line of control. 167 00:09:50,790 --> 00:09:53,280 Now, that led to a dog fight. 168 00:09:53,310 --> 00:09:56,370 The Indians at Pakistanis were able to shoot down and make 21. 169 00:09:57,345 --> 00:09:58,755 The pilot was captured. 170 00:09:58,905 --> 00:10:01,155 We were given tea and sent back home. 171 00:10:02,055 --> 00:10:02,625 That was it. 172 00:10:03,255 --> 00:10:07,095 So we haven't had anything since 2019 February. 173 00:10:07,095 --> 00:10:11,235 And then in 20 19th of August, the Indians decided that, you know what? 174 00:10:11,685 --> 00:10:16,995 One of the ways to solve this problem is to end the autonomous status of 175 00:10:17,145 --> 00:10:18,855 Kashmir that we're in control of. 176 00:10:19,395 --> 00:10:23,025 Mind you, there is the Pakistani control Kashmir, and there are good chunks 177 00:10:23,025 --> 00:10:24,945 of Kashmir that are Chinese control. 178 00:10:26,265 --> 00:10:28,425 So this is a complicated battle space. 179 00:10:29,564 --> 00:10:35,205 so what they did is the area that they controlled, they basically divided it up. 180 00:10:35,265 --> 00:10:39,705 A, they took away the autonomous status of the old state of Jamin Kashmir B. 181 00:10:39,705 --> 00:10:41,355 They divided it up into two. 182 00:10:41,910 --> 00:10:46,530 Federally administered Union territories, one J and K, the Jamin Kashmir, the 183 00:10:46,530 --> 00:10:51,510 other Lada, Laak being ethnically different, religiously different than 184 00:10:51,510 --> 00:10:53,100 j and K, which is Muslim majority. 185 00:10:54,060 --> 00:10:58,439 LADA is also on the Chinese border, not on the Pakistani side of border. 186 00:10:58,890 --> 00:10:59,880 So they did that. 187 00:10:59,939 --> 00:11:02,520 That created more tensions between India and Pakistan. 188 00:11:02,610 --> 00:11:03,375 Nothing happened. 189 00:11:04,800 --> 00:11:07,470 but the Indians thought that they had solved this problem. 190 00:11:07,470 --> 00:11:12,510 They, there was a massive security crackdown and, normalization had 191 00:11:12,510 --> 00:11:14,460 begun over the past year or so. 192 00:11:14,760 --> 00:11:16,230 There was covid in between. 193 00:11:16,950 --> 00:11:18,990 So all sorts of things were going on. 194 00:11:19,560 --> 00:11:24,270 Finally, you, think from the point of view of the Modi government, Hey, 195 00:11:24,270 --> 00:11:30,660 we think we've, got a handle on this now, and then this thing happens. 196 00:11:31,320 --> 00:11:34,860 So now the question is, okay, last time you did airstrikes, 197 00:11:34,860 --> 00:11:36,150 what are you gonna do this time? 198 00:11:36,990 --> 00:11:43,110 And there's a public expectation and there is also that sort of strategic expectation 199 00:11:43,110 --> 00:11:48,540 where adversaries lock themselves into, a spiral, no, escalating spiral. 200 00:11:48,600 --> 00:11:55,440 So this is why I think, we're now more than 12 days past, the attack 201 00:11:55,680 --> 00:11:58,500 from, April 22nd, I say 12 days. 202 00:11:58,814 --> 00:12:01,995 Because the last time this happened with the airstrike that I just mentioned, 203 00:12:02,145 --> 00:12:04,035 that was 12 days after the attack. 204 00:12:04,905 --> 00:12:07,635 So this time we're seeing all sorts of activity. 205 00:12:07,995 --> 00:12:11,685 There's missile test firing out in the Arabian Sea. 206 00:12:11,685 --> 00:12:15,795 There's Air Force, drills taking place in, 207 00:12:18,735 --> 00:12:22,365 Southeast, Southwestern part of India. 208 00:12:22,949 --> 00:12:26,219 Near the Pakistani border today, there are drills taking place in the 209 00:12:26,219 --> 00:12:29,640 desert province, or state of Stan. 210 00:12:30,000 --> 00:12:32,610 There's a lot of mobilization happening, and plus there's civil 211 00:12:32,610 --> 00:12:34,439 defense drills happening in case. 212 00:12:35,160 --> 00:12:38,550 The Indian struck and the Pakistanis did strikes on the other side. 213 00:12:38,550 --> 00:12:42,060 The other words, I think both sides are preparing for something they, 214 00:12:42,450 --> 00:12:45,720 I know I've taken a lot of time, but I just wanted to set the stage. 215 00:12:46,110 --> 00:12:50,550 thank you for laying out the context, but it, leads directly to, a question that 216 00:12:50,550 --> 00:12:54,360 I don't understand, which is, so what was the motive behind the attack itself? 217 00:12:54,855 --> 00:12:56,775 Do you think it was just a couple of randos? 218 00:12:57,345 --> 00:13:01,395 is there any reason that Pakistan wants to drag India back in? 219 00:13:01,694 --> 00:13:04,755 I, don't really understand the motive on Pakistan's side behind 220 00:13:04,755 --> 00:13:06,495 wanting to do this now of all times, 221 00:13:08,385 --> 00:13:13,845 you and I are not fans of randomness, so I wouldn't go to go into that. 222 00:13:13,875 --> 00:13:14,295 Look. 223 00:13:14,775 --> 00:13:19,814 there's a context here, and this is a context that is, it's not 224 00:13:19,814 --> 00:13:21,105 something that I came up with. 225 00:13:21,255 --> 00:13:21,645 It's. 226 00:13:22,065 --> 00:13:29,595 Being said in both countries or being talked about the, there is 227 00:13:29,595 --> 00:13:35,895 this view that the Pakistanis had to come out and retaliate for a number 228 00:13:35,895 --> 00:13:36,975 of things that have been happening. 229 00:13:39,375 --> 00:13:44,325 and this is just think of it as an imperative and, without getting into 230 00:13:44,385 --> 00:13:49,725 whether, the normative side of things, I'm just looking at it empirical. 231 00:13:51,390 --> 00:13:52,830 So what has been happening? 232 00:13:53,280 --> 00:14:00,689 the backdrop to this is the Pakistanis believe, that the insurgency that 233 00:14:00,689 --> 00:14:07,470 is picking up steam in Stan inside pa, in Western Pakistan and the 234 00:14:08,010 --> 00:14:13,110 Taliban insurgency that also is picking up steam simultaneously, is 235 00:14:13,110 --> 00:14:15,000 being backed by Indian intelligence. 236 00:14:16,785 --> 00:14:22,035 That is something we haven't seen any evidence of that, the Pakistanis 237 00:14:22,035 --> 00:14:26,175 have not provided evidence, but they keep talking about it. 238 00:14:27,525 --> 00:14:34,425 the Indians have been talking about how they have been, they support or should 239 00:14:34,425 --> 00:14:37,635 support or would support, the Baloche. 240 00:14:37,995 --> 00:14:41,295 They don't say they support the TTP, but. 241 00:14:42,015 --> 00:14:47,025 There is some warming of relationships between India and the 242 00:14:47,025 --> 00:14:49,335 Taliban government in Afghanistan. 243 00:14:49,875 --> 00:14:57,615 So the Pakistanis use that to have, say, look, they, it is through this 244 00:14:57,615 --> 00:15:04,545 medium, this channel that the Indians are actually also fueling the Taliban 245 00:15:04,755 --> 00:15:06,915 rebellion as well in the northwest. 246 00:15:08,085 --> 00:15:16,485 On top of that, you've had I would say at least a half a dozen unusual targeted 247 00:15:16,485 --> 00:15:24,375 assassinations of militant leaders from various Kashmiri groups on Pakistani sort. 248 00:15:25,334 --> 00:15:29,775 And they have been blamed on, again, on Indian intelligence. 249 00:15:31,214 --> 00:15:34,785 And there's a lot that's written out there for the listeners who 250 00:15:34,785 --> 00:15:36,525 want to get deeper into this. 251 00:15:36,525 --> 00:15:38,775 So you can just Google or use chat CPT. 252 00:15:39,915 --> 00:15:41,925 but there is enough material out there. 253 00:15:42,344 --> 00:15:45,045 This is the logic in which, 254 00:15:47,415 --> 00:15:54,224 for those who say that Pakistan had to strike back, these 255 00:15:54,224 --> 00:15:55,245 are the sort of the buildup. 256 00:15:55,245 --> 00:16:01,454 So the, Pakistanis were getting hit and they needed to basically say, Hey, if 257 00:16:01,454 --> 00:16:07,185 you hurt us in this area, then we can hurt you here, knock it off, or whatever. 258 00:16:08,250 --> 00:16:15,330 And so there is that narrative that's floating out there now, is it true? 259 00:16:16,560 --> 00:16:17,730 what is the evidence? 260 00:16:18,060 --> 00:16:24,630 no, this is in the realm of sort of speculation or, inferring based 261 00:16:24,630 --> 00:16:27,300 on rumor intelligence, if you will. 262 00:16:27,990 --> 00:16:33,150 So beyond that, I don't know how else to explain it. 263 00:16:33,480 --> 00:16:36,570 why there, there's another thing that I wanna mention is. 264 00:16:38,430 --> 00:16:41,490 In 2021 then Army Chief. 265 00:16:41,520 --> 00:16:46,470 This was when Imran Han was Prime Minister, then Army Chief, general 266 00:16:46,470 --> 00:16:49,890 Kammer Bais said, Hey, you know what? 267 00:16:49,950 --> 00:16:53,430 We want to end this nonsense with India. 268 00:16:54,390 --> 00:16:56,550 we have to deal with our Western flank. 269 00:16:56,550 --> 00:17:02,550 This was well before the Taliban took over, a Afghanistan and the US withdrew. 270 00:17:03,060 --> 00:17:05,490 They were seeing that coming and they said, Hey. 271 00:17:06,795 --> 00:17:11,685 we don't have any interest in, firing up anything with India. 272 00:17:12,705 --> 00:17:15,825 let's just keep it cool there so we can focus on the Western plank. 273 00:17:16,335 --> 00:17:20,025 So he went out and he established a ceasefire on the 274 00:17:20,025 --> 00:17:22,485 line of control in early 2021. 275 00:17:23,325 --> 00:17:26,955 It held, he also tried to improve relations. 276 00:17:26,985 --> 00:17:31,605 There were discussions that, or at least there were reports that. 277 00:17:33,300 --> 00:17:37,710 perhaps the Prime Minister of India could come on a visit to Pakistan. 278 00:17:39,030 --> 00:17:43,470 and, but those, all, the, government of Prime Minister, Imran Han 279 00:17:43,470 --> 00:17:44,760 did not want any part of it. 280 00:17:45,030 --> 00:17:49,350 So they quashed it, and that thing didn't go anywhere, but the ceasefire held. 281 00:17:49,889 --> 00:17:51,780 And so from the Pakistani point of view. 282 00:17:52,800 --> 00:17:56,790 They say, Hey, we haven't done anything and we, have no interest. 283 00:17:56,790 --> 00:17:57,689 We have problems. 284 00:17:57,870 --> 00:18:00,000 we have an economic, financial meltdown. 285 00:18:00,179 --> 00:18:03,449 We have political instability of unprecedented proportions, 286 00:18:03,989 --> 00:18:04,889 so on and so forth. 287 00:18:05,429 --> 00:18:07,739 And so we have no reason to do this. 288 00:18:09,780 --> 00:18:16,050 but there is this backdrop that we need to factor in, which is the 289 00:18:16,050 --> 00:18:21,239 targeted assassination of multiple militant liters, on Pakistani soil. 290 00:18:22,185 --> 00:18:30,525 The latest incident, which was the, hijacking of a train by Balo rebels that 291 00:18:30,525 --> 00:18:36,525 was carrying, troops and their families from one part of Bastan together called, 292 00:18:36,525 --> 00:18:41,190 it was called the Jaffa Express, and was, there was a hostage situation. 293 00:18:42,525 --> 00:18:45,105 there were, lots of casualties and fatalities. 294 00:18:45,885 --> 00:18:48,405 and that was, that happened only a few months ago. 295 00:18:48,495 --> 00:18:55,845 And After that the Pakistani, state came out and said, Hey, and this 296 00:18:55,845 --> 00:18:58,875 is from the official spokesperson of the military that we're gonna 297 00:18:58,875 --> 00:19:00,254 ch change the rules of the game. 298 00:19:00,735 --> 00:19:06,165 So a lot of people cite that and say, this is what they meant by changing 299 00:19:06,165 --> 00:19:09,645 the rules of the game, is that they are going back to this militancy 300 00:19:09,645 --> 00:19:11,685 in Kashmir, if that makes sense. 301 00:19:13,695 --> 00:19:15,315 Yeah, it makes sense. 302 00:19:16,125 --> 00:19:20,325 so before we get into regional context and how this connects to the big web of things 303 00:19:20,325 --> 00:19:23,835 that are happening everywhere, else, what do you think is gonna happen next? 304 00:19:23,895 --> 00:19:28,335 Do you think this is gonna be a relatively contained escalation and that India will 305 00:19:28,335 --> 00:19:31,965 just do what it has to do in order to try and reestablish some level of deterrence? 306 00:19:31,965 --> 00:19:34,665 Are you concerned about a bigger conflagration, like 307 00:19:34,665 --> 00:19:36,044 on, on the level of previous. 308 00:19:37,169 --> 00:19:40,320 even India, Pakistan wars are relatively small compared to most wars. 309 00:19:40,320 --> 00:19:43,620 But are we talking about one of the three wars that have happened in recent history? 310 00:19:43,620 --> 00:19:45,810 Like how, worried are you about what's gonna happen next? 311 00:19:46,919 --> 00:19:53,850 I think that it all depends on what kind of, kinetic action. 312 00:19:53,854 --> 00:19:58,965 The Indian state, they, as I said earlier, they've locked themselves 313 00:19:58,995 --> 00:20:02,100 into a situation where they can't do what they did last time. 314 00:20:02,925 --> 00:20:05,085 So you go back to your point about insurance. 315 00:20:05,805 --> 00:20:09,405 insurance was established, but then it fell apart. 316 00:20:09,855 --> 00:20:13,095 So how you reestablish insurance, logic says you have to do 317 00:20:13,095 --> 00:20:15,405 something where you raise the cost. 318 00:20:15,705 --> 00:20:21,764 So what is it that you can do that is more painful on the Pakistani side 319 00:20:21,764 --> 00:20:24,645 without triggering a counterstrike? 320 00:20:24,705 --> 00:20:29,205 So in other words, let's say the Indians hit and they hit relatively hard. 321 00:20:29,895 --> 00:20:31,215 The Pakistanis will hit back. 322 00:20:31,275 --> 00:20:32,895 And the, and Indians understand that. 323 00:20:32,895 --> 00:20:38,265 And you see this, in, in some of the more, if you will, sophisticated talk shows. 324 00:20:38,985 --> 00:20:44,535 otherwise Indian media is as jingoistic as Pakistani, if not more. 325 00:20:45,135 --> 00:20:49,845 but the point is that you can see Indian analysts talking about 326 00:20:49,845 --> 00:20:54,825 this, that look, if you strike big, then they can strike back at you. 327 00:20:55,485 --> 00:20:56,955 Then, so where do we go? 328 00:20:57,105 --> 00:20:59,415 So are we then compelled to hit that again? 329 00:20:59,415 --> 00:21:05,415 In other words, how many rounds are we looking at before we end it or 330 00:21:05,745 --> 00:21:08,115 this thing escalates out of control? 331 00:21:08,595 --> 00:21:11,415 So that is the fear right now. 332 00:21:11,895 --> 00:21:18,405 And, I don't think, hey, if it happens like an hour after we record 333 00:21:18,405 --> 00:21:20,055 this, then you know I'm wrong. 334 00:21:20,655 --> 00:21:21,165 But. 335 00:21:22,125 --> 00:21:27,584 The fact that it hasn't happened so far, and we're day 13, I'm pretty 336 00:21:27,584 --> 00:21:29,145 sure, on the math about that. 337 00:21:30,105 --> 00:21:34,574 but if it hasn't happened so far, it means the Indians are trying to calibrate 338 00:21:35,415 --> 00:21:42,465 something that will be substantive, but not break the norm, if you will. 339 00:21:43,304 --> 00:21:48,975 And so I don't have a model for you and that I can't say, Hey, 340 00:21:48,975 --> 00:21:50,294 this is what it's gonna look like. 341 00:21:52,275 --> 00:21:57,465 What, how do you rate the importance of the suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty? 342 00:21:57,465 --> 00:22:00,254 Do you feel like that is a big deal, little deal, or no deal? 343 00:22:01,635 --> 00:22:06,165 that is a big deal because, that treaty is from 60 19 60. 344 00:22:06,165 --> 00:22:08,535 It was, the world, Bank got involved. 345 00:22:10,200 --> 00:22:13,860 Basically played a role in getting that treaty off the ground and 346 00:22:13,860 --> 00:22:19,110 the treaty has held, yes, there's been noise made, in recent years 347 00:22:19,110 --> 00:22:20,280 it's not working for Pakistan. 348 00:22:20,820 --> 00:22:22,200 There needs to be renegotiation. 349 00:22:22,200 --> 00:22:24,480 It's not working for India, so on and so forth. 350 00:22:24,480 --> 00:22:29,520 But it's hell all throughout, all the tensions, all the wars, 351 00:22:31,919 --> 00:22:38,280 65 War, 71 War, 99 Cargill War, and then all the flashpoints that 352 00:22:38,280 --> 00:22:43,350 have occurred, 2001 two, 2008 by attacks, et cetera, et cetera. 353 00:22:44,220 --> 00:22:49,620 The Indians have never said, Hey, let's tamper with the in this Waters treaty. 354 00:22:50,430 --> 00:22:51,540 This is unprecedented. 355 00:22:52,200 --> 00:22:59,670 And obviously, This isn't okay, we're just gonna stop the water of Pakistan. 356 00:22:59,730 --> 00:23:00,960 It's leverage. 357 00:23:00,990 --> 00:23:05,460 It's trying to gain leverage and to force Pakistan into, a certain behavior. 358 00:23:07,140 --> 00:23:13,740 so the question is, will this lead to a renegotiation at some 359 00:23:13,740 --> 00:23:15,690 point when things calm down? 360 00:23:16,470 --> 00:23:21,270 Or is this something that's going to linger on and could actually become 361 00:23:21,270 --> 00:23:24,810 like a catalyst for more confrontation? 362 00:23:25,169 --> 00:23:31,980 Because the Pakistani see this as okay, and they've said it, this is like a 363 00:23:32,070 --> 00:23:33,899 tantamount to a declaration of war. 364 00:23:34,830 --> 00:23:35,459 and so 365 00:23:37,500 --> 00:23:39,090 it's not really clear where they're gonna go. 366 00:23:40,139 --> 00:23:45,030 there is the issue of, okay, are you gonna build dams and what, can 367 00:23:45,030 --> 00:23:46,620 you tamper with the water supply? 368 00:23:46,889 --> 00:23:48,510 Do you really want to go there? 369 00:23:49,155 --> 00:23:53,325 What happens and everybody's operating from a worst case scenario. 370 00:23:53,865 --> 00:24:00,105 So this is, this further makes this moment very different than everything 371 00:24:00,105 --> 00:24:02,115 we've seen in recent memoral. 372 00:24:04,935 --> 00:24:05,295 Yeah. 373 00:24:07,365 --> 00:24:11,025 if you were advising the Pakistani government, what would you tell them? 374 00:24:11,030 --> 00:24:11,440 Oh, please. 375 00:24:17,955 --> 00:24:22,035 What can I say that, I would basically say, look, 376 00:24:24,135 --> 00:24:28,575 there are always back channels, I'm told, and this is what we've learned. 377 00:24:28,575 --> 00:24:29,835 There are always back channels. 378 00:24:29,835 --> 00:24:36,885 So go through one of them and stop this from blowing up beyond what it already is. 379 00:24:36,885 --> 00:24:38,745 So is can they do that? 380 00:24:38,745 --> 00:24:40,725 Can the Pakistanis actually say, okay. 381 00:24:42,030 --> 00:24:43,410 Let me use my call. 382 00:24:43,620 --> 00:24:47,760 By the way, the, director general of military operations, on both 383 00:24:47,760 --> 00:24:49,920 sides had their call a few days ago. 384 00:24:50,960 --> 00:24:57,000 the readout to the media was that this was about, keeping things calm on the LOC. 385 00:24:57,060 --> 00:25:02,220 Indian Indians told the Pakistanis stop firing or something like that, but there 386 00:25:02,220 --> 00:25:04,170 was a call, and that's an official call. 387 00:25:04,380 --> 00:25:10,110 So if there's an official call at a military level, then you would think that. 388 00:25:10,470 --> 00:25:14,520 Back channels are easier to operate is, they're secret. 389 00:25:14,850 --> 00:25:16,080 Nobody knows about them. 390 00:25:16,440 --> 00:25:18,840 You can discuss things without having to go to the media. 391 00:25:19,650 --> 00:25:21,960 Maybe you can, do something there. 392 00:25:23,340 --> 00:25:23,910 I don't know. 393 00:25:25,860 --> 00:25:31,260 I think we're, significantly up an escalatory ladder that 394 00:25:31,260 --> 00:25:35,280 it becomes difficult to climb down, but not impossible. 395 00:25:37,860 --> 00:25:38,250 I don't know. 396 00:25:39,690 --> 00:25:46,860 By all accounts, Pakistanis are bracing for incoming, and I don't know if 397 00:25:46,860 --> 00:25:48,150 anything can be done before that. 398 00:25:48,150 --> 00:25:53,640 I think that there, there is this round that perhaps has to happen. 399 00:25:54,600 --> 00:26:00,270 I, never say that it's a hundred percent inevitable, but I think where things 400 00:26:00,270 --> 00:26:04,740 are, we should be looking at some form of kinetic action and hoping that. 401 00:26:05,790 --> 00:26:08,669 It'll remain confined within certain parameters from 402 00:26:08,669 --> 00:26:11,879 where you can go back to the. 403 00:26:12,764 --> 00:26:13,784 Negotiating, take 404 00:26:14,415 --> 00:26:14,865 one. 405 00:26:14,865 --> 00:26:15,375 Underplayed. 406 00:26:15,375 --> 00:26:20,085 Part of this, I think is, the role of Bangladesh and Bangladesh, India 407 00:26:20,085 --> 00:26:21,824 relations have not been great of late. 408 00:26:23,595 --> 00:26:26,504 is there any opportunity for Pakistan to reach out to Bangladesh 409 00:26:26,504 --> 00:26:28,754 to try, I'm really stretching here. 410 00:26:28,754 --> 00:26:30,554 I'm just trying to think of worst case scenarios. 411 00:26:30,554 --> 00:26:32,355 But should India be worried about that? 412 00:26:32,355 --> 00:26:36,945 Is there a world in which India finds itself surrounded on both sides, or 413 00:26:36,945 --> 00:26:38,534 at least has two fronts going on? 414 00:26:38,774 --> 00:26:39,645 I'm really stretching. 415 00:26:39,645 --> 00:26:41,835 I know, but I'm, just trying to get the sense of where. 416 00:26:41,860 --> 00:26:42,879 Bangladesh is here. 417 00:26:43,260 --> 00:26:44,740 no, you're not actually stretching. 418 00:26:45,459 --> 00:26:52,030 but I would reframe the question and say, could there be some Chinese 419 00:26:52,120 --> 00:26:59,260 assistance to Pakistan in the case of some escalation Bangladesh itself? 420 00:26:59,320 --> 00:26:59,830 Yes. 421 00:26:59,830 --> 00:27:04,449 It's the Pro India government of the former Prime Minister. 422 00:27:05,199 --> 00:27:06,699 She Hasina Isan. 423 00:27:07,540 --> 00:27:11,290 And this new military led setup is. 424 00:27:11,804 --> 00:27:14,445 Definitely gravitating more towards China. 425 00:27:14,534 --> 00:27:15,554 That's very public. 426 00:27:16,814 --> 00:27:25,485 and there are significant, signs of a realignment with Pakistan. 427 00:27:26,835 --> 00:27:27,945 but what can they do? 428 00:27:27,945 --> 00:27:30,794 Do they want, they're in a, they're in a transition themselves. 429 00:27:31,965 --> 00:27:33,314 and so they. 430 00:27:33,945 --> 00:27:35,895 They need to stabilize things on the home front. 431 00:27:35,925 --> 00:27:37,875 I don't think Bangladesh will get involved. 432 00:27:37,875 --> 00:27:40,365 The question is, what will the Chinese do? 433 00:27:40,514 --> 00:27:45,675 The reason I say that is because while the Chinese don't want to, 434 00:27:47,385 --> 00:27:52,274 see this thing get out of hand, but there isn't an interest here that 435 00:27:52,304 --> 00:27:57,254 if your Chinese, if you're a Chinese strategic thinker and you're looking 436 00:27:57,254 --> 00:28:01,784 at this and saying, okay, this is the. 437 00:28:02,399 --> 00:28:12,240 Main ally of the US and the, if it is bogged down in South Asia, 438 00:28:12,240 --> 00:28:15,300 then it can't be an ally to the us. 439 00:28:15,480 --> 00:28:19,379 So how do we get that going? 440 00:28:20,129 --> 00:28:21,360 there are risks involved. 441 00:28:21,780 --> 00:28:28,110 There is also the fact that since 2020, the Indian and the Chinese 442 00:28:28,110 --> 00:28:29,490 have sparred on their border. 443 00:28:30,450 --> 00:28:36,750 Since then, the Indians have been, thinking about a two 444 00:28:36,750 --> 00:28:39,270 front problem for themselves. 445 00:28:39,389 --> 00:28:44,190 Both the, line of control in Kashmir with Pakistan and the line of actual 446 00:28:44,190 --> 00:28:48,810 control, which runs from Kashmir all the way to the border with 447 00:28:48,810 --> 00:28:52,470 Neba, traversing to Nepal, andan. 448 00:28:52,889 --> 00:28:53,700 It's a long border. 449 00:28:54,450 --> 00:29:00,030 and From the Indian point of view, they have to factor in that if they 450 00:29:00,030 --> 00:29:07,290 go too big, then the Chinese could intervene in some shape or form. 451 00:29:08,520 --> 00:29:12,720 you as a military strategist, you're sitting in your deli. 452 00:29:13,500 --> 00:29:17,639 It's not possible for you to ignore that, however remote it 453 00:29:17,639 --> 00:29:22,350 might be, whatever calculus you, you do that has to be factored in. 454 00:29:22,350 --> 00:29:27,524 Now you may decide, I, We're not gonna let it go that far or we're prepared for it. 455 00:29:27,615 --> 00:29:32,504 Whatever the scenario is, they have to factor in the Chinese and 456 00:29:32,504 --> 00:29:36,105 the two front war because, in this piece of geopolitical real estate, 457 00:29:36,915 --> 00:29:38,324 it's not just India and Pakistan. 458 00:29:38,415 --> 00:29:39,975 The Chinese are stakeholders as well. 459 00:29:40,514 --> 00:29:41,985 So there you have it. 460 00:29:43,185 --> 00:29:45,435 What realistically do you think China's gonna do though? 461 00:29:45,435 --> 00:29:48,165 I would think that they wouldn't want any kind of conflict here. 462 00:29:49,725 --> 00:29:52,905 They don't want any kind of conflict, but. 463 00:29:53,280 --> 00:29:54,390 What they want. 464 00:29:54,480 --> 00:29:59,700 It's, one thing, but what is it that they will be forced to do? 465 00:30:00,630 --> 00:30:05,190 Should an Indian, should India do something significant because 466 00:30:05,190 --> 00:30:06,780 they're, this is their ally. 467 00:30:06,810 --> 00:30:08,130 Pakistan is their ally. 468 00:30:08,160 --> 00:30:11,850 Now there are problems between Pakistan and China and many problems. 469 00:30:12,210 --> 00:30:17,070 But you, if you are aspiring to be great power and you're telling 470 00:30:17,280 --> 00:30:22,110 Pakistan that, Hey, you didn't get much from the us, if you align with us. 471 00:30:22,635 --> 00:30:24,555 It's about Chinese credibility as well. 472 00:30:24,945 --> 00:30:30,975 and so China can just sit back and say, oh, they're fighting again. 473 00:30:32,475 --> 00:30:33,735 they have to do something. 474 00:30:33,735 --> 00:30:37,875 There's, will they provide assistance of some form? 475 00:30:38,955 --> 00:30:39,435 I don't know. 476 00:30:40,035 --> 00:30:43,575 it's, again, EI think the ball is in the Indian Cork. 477 00:30:43,875 --> 00:30:46,095 Everything depends on what the Indians do. 478 00:30:48,600 --> 00:30:53,880 This thing didn't play out in many rounds in 2019, but I'm sure the Chinese were 479 00:30:54,090 --> 00:30:59,970 watching that dog fight very closely, between Indian and Pakistani warplanes, 480 00:31:00,270 --> 00:31:03,450 even if it was just for, a couple of days. 481 00:31:04,380 --> 00:31:08,310 And, but it's not something that the Indians are oh, it's 482 00:31:08,310 --> 00:31:09,690 happening in some remote corner. 483 00:31:09,690 --> 00:31:10,320 No, it's not. 484 00:31:11,340 --> 00:31:15,840 here you have your ally and your biggest regional adversary, going at it. 485 00:31:15,840 --> 00:31:19,080 So you can't be I. Neutral. 486 00:31:20,879 --> 00:31:21,120 All right. 487 00:31:21,270 --> 00:31:22,740 you're actually making me feel better kamran. 488 00:31:22,770 --> 00:31:26,220 'cause it, it sounds to me like all signs point towards deescalation. 489 00:31:26,220 --> 00:31:30,960 So unless, I'm reading you wrong, you have your choice from the menu. 490 00:31:30,960 --> 00:31:32,250 Would you like to talk Iran? 491 00:31:32,250 --> 00:31:33,990 Would you like to talk Israel and Gaza? 492 00:31:33,990 --> 00:31:36,240 Would you like to talk Yemens, Syria, Turkey? 493 00:31:36,240 --> 00:31:37,110 What is your pleasure? 494 00:31:37,800 --> 00:31:41,460 I think that they're all part of a threat, a singular threat. 495 00:31:41,520 --> 00:31:47,010 We can talk about all of them and as part of a a, fabric that he called 496 00:31:47,010 --> 00:31:51,780 the Middle East, I. And it is not really in a good shape, but yeah, 497 00:31:51,840 --> 00:31:54,240 it's all part of the same logic. 498 00:31:55,679 --> 00:31:57,990 wh which part of the, thread do you wanna begin with? 499 00:31:57,990 --> 00:32:01,379 Do you wanna begin with US Iran, potential nuclear deal coming? 500 00:32:01,379 --> 00:32:04,200 Do you wanna deal with Yeah, let's start in Israel, or let's 501 00:32:04,200 --> 00:32:08,429 start there and, let's connect it to the Houthis because today, just a short 502 00:32:08,429 --> 00:32:12,689 while ago, sitting with the Canadian Prime Minister, the president said that 503 00:32:12,990 --> 00:32:15,929 he's got word that the hooky do not want. 504 00:32:16,530 --> 00:32:20,100 To be bombed and we will stop bombing them because they have 505 00:32:20,100 --> 00:32:22,440 promised to no longer attack ships. 506 00:32:22,950 --> 00:32:25,350 So that's a huge thing that just came out. 507 00:32:26,730 --> 00:32:30,270 So no longer to attack ships, they're just gonna bomb Tel Aviv airport and 508 00:32:30,420 --> 00:32:31,830 President Trump's gonna be cool with that. 509 00:32:32,280 --> 00:32:33,960 And that's the wrinkle and that 510 00:32:33,960 --> 00:32:34,650 is the question. 511 00:32:34,650 --> 00:32:42,090 And so I saw on Twitter, somewhere that, the report is that the Israelis 512 00:32:42,090 --> 00:32:43,500 were not taken into conference. 513 00:32:43,500 --> 00:32:45,600 They didn't know about this until they found out about it. 514 00:32:46,275 --> 00:32:46,935 From the media. 515 00:32:47,085 --> 00:32:50,715 So it wasn't like, there wasn't a discussion according to this report. 516 00:32:50,715 --> 00:32:56,565 And this report comes from Bar who's a pretty legit journalist. 517 00:32:57,045 --> 00:32:57,915 he's, high caliber. 518 00:32:58,755 --> 00:32:59,895 So, I'm taking it seriously. 519 00:33:00,435 --> 00:33:07,965 and so I think that, look, we've had three rounds of conversations 520 00:33:07,965 --> 00:33:12,225 between the president's Envoy, Steve Whitcoff, and the arrangements. 521 00:33:14,550 --> 00:33:17,370 I think one of them, with the exception of one, all of the 522 00:33:17,370 --> 00:33:20,130 rounds have taken place in ban. 523 00:33:20,430 --> 00:33:22,350 A fourth one is due this Sunday. 524 00:33:23,940 --> 00:33:27,540 I can't imagine they're just talking nukes and I can't imagine that 525 00:33:27,540 --> 00:33:28,890 they're talking to the Iranians. 526 00:33:29,460 --> 00:33:32,370 And then this Houthi thing comes out from nowhere. 527 00:33:34,125 --> 00:33:36,405 The Houthis are proxies of Iranians. 528 00:33:36,645 --> 00:33:40,785 And this had to factor in into the conversation because this isn't 529 00:33:40,785 --> 00:33:47,565 just about nukes, this is about Iran's ability to, do ingress into 530 00:33:47,565 --> 00:33:51,585 the Arab Bowl and, destabilize it. 531 00:33:52,425 --> 00:33:57,795 And a key tool, especially after the massive hit that Hezbollah took, 532 00:33:59,355 --> 00:34:01,035 last year, and the collapse of the. 533 00:34:02,459 --> 00:34:09,299 This is probably the sharpest tool, or most potent tool in the Iranian, arsenal. 534 00:34:10,230 --> 00:34:13,679 and therefore you have to have a conversation on the Houthis. 535 00:34:14,040 --> 00:34:16,290 And the Houthis are being, were being bombed. 536 00:34:16,710 --> 00:34:21,285 I. For many, days consistently by the, by US forces. 537 00:34:21,735 --> 00:34:26,775 And yesterday they struck at, Aviv Airport, and then the 538 00:34:26,775 --> 00:34:28,185 Israelis conducted a strike. 539 00:34:28,185 --> 00:34:29,625 So you can't not talk. 540 00:34:29,840 --> 00:34:31,725 you, those are not separate things. 541 00:34:32,085 --> 00:34:37,725 So I, if there is a deal that's happening, it's part of a broader conversation 542 00:34:37,725 --> 00:34:40,785 with the Iranians, and saying, okay. 543 00:34:42,270 --> 00:34:46,170 while we're discussing nukes, you, this has to, we have to solve this. 544 00:34:47,340 --> 00:34:53,580 and so I think there, I think that there is an, a conversation 545 00:34:53,580 --> 00:34:55,440 underway that is very serious. 546 00:34:56,310 --> 00:35:02,069 The big question about the Iranian nuclear negotiations is that, is this 547 00:35:02,069 --> 00:35:06,330 just going to be a little more than J-C-P-O-A, the Obama nuclear deal? 548 00:35:08,025 --> 00:35:11,085 I have a hard time believing that I don't think that this president 549 00:35:11,175 --> 00:35:17,895 can settle down on, okay, let's just put some bells and whistles on the 550 00:35:17,895 --> 00:35:19,605 same old deal and call it different. 551 00:35:20,175 --> 00:35:22,305 I think it's gonna be subsequently different. 552 00:35:23,685 --> 00:35:29,715 but, and, there's an opportunity to extract a bigger concession because of 553 00:35:30,165 --> 00:35:32,145 how desperate the ivanian situation is. 554 00:35:32,895 --> 00:35:34,360 they've lost the Levant. 555 00:35:35,295 --> 00:35:40,065 They're defensive posture in, in Iraq. 556 00:35:40,755 --> 00:35:45,495 Their most lethal ally, the Houthis are getting bombed. 557 00:35:47,055 --> 00:35:50,355 their economy isn't, tatters. 558 00:35:51,105 --> 00:35:55,155 They're going, they're approaching a political transition, which 559 00:35:55,155 --> 00:35:58,035 will, in my view, is gonna be a systemic tra transition. 560 00:35:58,905 --> 00:36:00,855 They need to sort this thing out. 561 00:36:00,855 --> 00:36:04,155 They need some sanctions, respite before. 562 00:36:05,040 --> 00:36:08,130 the funeral proce procession of Haman is taken out. 563 00:36:09,090 --> 00:36:16,290 because think about it, if you are the Iranian regime and the supreme leader 564 00:36:16,290 --> 00:36:20,580 has passed away, and obviously this is, there's gonna be a lot of public, 565 00:36:22,860 --> 00:36:26,610 ceremony, if you will, for a lack of better term public mourning. 566 00:36:27,090 --> 00:36:30,270 That's an opportunity for anybody who wants to come out and use 567 00:36:30,270 --> 00:36:33,210 that moment to do protests. 568 00:36:33,615 --> 00:36:36,645 I've been told that they're really worried about that. 569 00:36:36,705 --> 00:36:41,745 So they wanna be able to improve the public situation much, 570 00:36:42,135 --> 00:36:47,025 sooner than that before they get, they're deep into that position. 571 00:36:47,025 --> 00:36:53,865 You can't game this out 'cause someone somewhere in Tehran knows, what is the 572 00:36:53,865 --> 00:36:56,295 true status of the old man's health. 573 00:36:56,325 --> 00:37:03,884 But, you have to assume that he's 86 and He's not gonna be 574 00:37:03,884 --> 00:37:05,265 around for Bob, so whatever. 575 00:37:05,924 --> 00:37:10,095 So I don't know how much time they have, but it, the clock is ticking. 576 00:37:10,274 --> 00:37:16,455 So they have a situation where they need sanctions relief, they need a deal. 577 00:37:17,174 --> 00:37:18,585 What are they willing to give up? 578 00:37:19,575 --> 00:37:24,285 And I'm not saying they're going to just say, Hey, mothball our 579 00:37:24,285 --> 00:37:28,214 nuclear program and we're gonna do like a Gadda and Libya 2003. 580 00:37:29,235 --> 00:37:31,005 No, they're not gonna do that. 581 00:37:31,455 --> 00:37:38,775 But they, that's why I don't think it's just going to be J-C-P-O-A plus something. 582 00:37:39,255 --> 00:37:41,295 I think it's going to be a bit more substantive. 583 00:37:41,775 --> 00:37:45,675 Can we get a deal on the, ballistic missiles? 584 00:37:45,765 --> 00:37:46,425 I don't know. 585 00:37:46,425 --> 00:37:47,715 I haven't seen a whole lot on it. 586 00:37:48,735 --> 00:37:53,115 but this thing from the president saying the Houthis are ready to call 587 00:37:53,115 --> 00:37:54,735 it quits and throw in the towel, 588 00:37:57,345 --> 00:38:02,655 Makes me hopeful that, that there is some progression going on, but 589 00:38:02,715 --> 00:38:04,335 there will be something substantive. 590 00:38:04,845 --> 00:38:09,855 Now, how do you balance that with Saudi imperatives, Turkish imperatives, and 591 00:38:09,855 --> 00:38:11,565 Israeli imperatives more importantly? 592 00:38:11,925 --> 00:38:15,435 That's the big key because I think there are separate deals 593 00:38:16,155 --> 00:38:18,134 and arrangements taking place. 594 00:38:18,435 --> 00:38:24,255 just yesterday we had the news that, the president came out and, tweeted. 595 00:38:25,215 --> 00:38:30,855 About how great his conversation was with the Turkish, president, aan. 596 00:38:31,455 --> 00:38:36,285 And they talked about the Ukraine war, Gaza, Syria. 597 00:38:37,035 --> 00:38:38,595 so there's that thing happening. 598 00:38:38,595 --> 00:38:40,635 There's an Iranian conversation happening. 599 00:38:40,995 --> 00:38:44,445 There is also a, an understanding with Saudi, the president is 600 00:38:44,445 --> 00:38:50,145 about to go to Saudi on his first ever trip, and then there's ga. 601 00:38:51,570 --> 00:38:55,260 I don't think, the US ever wanted to take over Gaza. 602 00:38:55,260 --> 00:38:58,350 I think it was designed to put pressure on the Arab states 603 00:38:58,350 --> 00:39:00,060 to own the Palestinian issue. 604 00:39:00,630 --> 00:39:05,460 I think what's going on is the US and this is where the Abraham Accord framework 605 00:39:05,460 --> 00:39:11,250 comes in, is that you guys need to sort this out, this Palestinian issue, we 606 00:39:11,250 --> 00:39:13,140 can't give you a two-state solution. 607 00:39:13,560 --> 00:39:14,970 It's not even possible. 608 00:39:15,525 --> 00:39:17,625 But it's not our problem. 609 00:39:17,625 --> 00:39:18,765 This is your problem. 610 00:39:19,575 --> 00:39:20,475 You, need to own it. 611 00:39:20,505 --> 00:39:21,495 You've never owned it. 612 00:39:21,495 --> 00:39:25,665 You've always said the White House will do something and put pressure 613 00:39:25,665 --> 00:39:27,645 on Israel and bring it to the table. 614 00:39:27,645 --> 00:39:31,245 And at some point when you know things are right, stars aligned, 615 00:39:31,455 --> 00:39:32,835 we're gonna get a two state solution. 616 00:39:33,105 --> 00:39:34,095 that hasn't happened. 617 00:39:34,095 --> 00:39:35,115 It's not gonna happen. 618 00:39:36,975 --> 00:39:40,395 that moment has come and gone and it was a while back. 619 00:39:41,145 --> 00:39:44,775 So when, how you move forward, you say, okay. 620 00:39:45,675 --> 00:39:47,895 We get rid, they're gonna get rid of Hamas. 621 00:39:48,015 --> 00:39:54,135 Now, Saudi Arabia, you need to work with UAE, Egypt and Jordan to come up 622 00:39:54,135 --> 00:39:56,925 with a plan for a post-conflict Gaza. 623 00:39:57,735 --> 00:40:00,975 'cause otherwise, the only other option is the Israelis have to occupy it, 624 00:40:03,375 --> 00:40:04,065 indefinitely. 625 00:40:04,815 --> 00:40:06,975 And so I think that. 626 00:40:07,335 --> 00:40:09,825 Is being discussed behind the scenes. 627 00:40:09,825 --> 00:40:16,335 We have had some indication with proposals from, the Egyptians and 628 00:40:16,335 --> 00:40:21,464 the, and others that were neither here nor there about what their plan is. 629 00:40:21,944 --> 00:40:28,484 But I can't imagine that the, United States wants to pull back and it's 630 00:40:28,484 --> 00:40:30,404 just gonna let the Gaza thing fester. 631 00:40:31,095 --> 00:40:34,395 And so if you connect everything together, I think there are 632 00:40:34,395 --> 00:40:35,924 multiple deals in the making. 633 00:40:36,525 --> 00:40:41,205 That are part of a broader strategy of the United States 634 00:40:41,205 --> 00:40:47,865 to keep this place from further deterioration, if that makes sense. 635 00:40:48,765 --> 00:40:49,305 Sort of. 636 00:40:49,305 --> 00:40:53,415 But the strategy feels like how to get outta Dodge, isn't the idea to pull 637 00:40:53,415 --> 00:40:56,775 back completely so that you can focus on the South China Sea and other areas? 638 00:40:56,775 --> 00:40:59,145 Or do you think that the Trump administration is invested in 639 00:40:59,145 --> 00:41:01,965 having an American presence in the region for the long haul? 640 00:41:04,320 --> 00:41:06,960 Ideally, I think they'd like to be able to withdraw. 641 00:41:08,490 --> 00:41:13,620 and because if you look at the grand strategy, and this isn't something that 642 00:41:13,740 --> 00:41:16,170 is just, this White House is strategy. 643 00:41:16,260 --> 00:41:19,890 This has been in the making since the, early days of the Obama 644 00:41:19,890 --> 00:41:28,440 administration where, the US is saying, regional actors should take lead. 645 00:41:29,490 --> 00:41:31,680 We don't need to do the heavy lifting. 646 00:41:31,680 --> 00:41:32,910 No more boots on the ground. 647 00:41:33,120 --> 00:41:36,660 obviously this was in the backdrop of the Iraq and Afghanistan wars 648 00:41:38,010 --> 00:41:39,330 and the lessons learned from that. 649 00:41:39,390 --> 00:41:45,450 But I think what this White House has done is said Russia is not a problem for us. 650 00:41:45,510 --> 00:41:48,780 Russia could not conquer all of Ukraine. 651 00:41:49,230 --> 00:41:51,720 Europe is much more prosperous. 652 00:41:51,780 --> 00:41:52,950 Let them take the lead. 653 00:41:53,250 --> 00:41:54,240 We'll still be there. 654 00:41:54,270 --> 00:41:59,880 We're not doing the heavy lifting, but I. This is the reality for that theater. 655 00:42:01,020 --> 00:42:05,130 East Asia, you don't have a nato, you don't have an EU equivalent. 656 00:42:05,819 --> 00:42:11,759 You have allies, you have South Koreans, the Japanese, the Philippines, you know 657 00:42:11,880 --> 00:42:17,940 the Taiwan and Australia and New Zealand, and you're trying to rope in India, what 658 00:42:17,940 --> 00:42:23,460 is now called the in, but you don't have an architecture and it's maritime space. 659 00:42:23,670 --> 00:42:24,150 And I think. 660 00:42:24,900 --> 00:42:28,290 What the United States is moving towards is we don't wanna get involved 661 00:42:28,290 --> 00:42:33,900 in land conflicts and we'll keep an eye on the oceans 'cause we are, 662 00:42:34,560 --> 00:42:36,870 native to both the two big oceans. 663 00:42:36,870 --> 00:42:39,390 And that's part of our national security strategy. 664 00:42:39,930 --> 00:42:41,130 So we'll deal with that. 665 00:42:41,670 --> 00:42:46,980 And China, will also come at it through the tariffs and the 666 00:42:46,980 --> 00:42:48,779 geo-economic angle as well. 667 00:42:49,980 --> 00:42:53,700 and in the Middle East, the problem is you don't have. 668 00:42:54,405 --> 00:42:58,095 You don't have a, you have a very fragile situation. 669 00:42:58,095 --> 00:43:04,125 You don't, you have regional actors, but their interests run, at cross purposes. 670 00:43:04,185 --> 00:43:04,725 They want it out. 671 00:43:05,505 --> 00:43:09,285 So the Saudis and the, all things being equal, the Saudis and the 672 00:43:09,285 --> 00:43:13,845 Israelis should have cut a deal a long time ago, before October 7th. 673 00:43:14,775 --> 00:43:19,155 But the, you can't have that because, or you couldn't have 674 00:43:19,155 --> 00:43:20,745 that before October 7th, because, 675 00:43:23,325 --> 00:43:27,944 They needed something, the Saudis to say, Hey, we haven't thrown the Palestinian 676 00:43:27,975 --> 00:43:30,165 under the bus to embrace Israel. 677 00:43:31,275 --> 00:43:35,835 They were talking about that when October 7th happened, October 7th completely 678 00:43:35,835 --> 00:43:37,215 blew everything out of the water. 679 00:43:37,935 --> 00:43:42,134 And now you have a situation where, it's even more difficult. 680 00:43:43,005 --> 00:43:49,694 And so there is that, and this is the most, if you will. 681 00:43:50,459 --> 00:43:55,379 Friendly relationship or least hostile relationship between 682 00:43:55,379 --> 00:43:57,209 the Saudis and the Israelis. 683 00:43:57,959 --> 00:44:02,759 If you look at NDA other relationship, Turkey versus Israel and Syria, 684 00:44:03,180 --> 00:44:08,370 Turkey versus Iran, Iran versus Israel, Iran versus Saudi, 685 00:44:08,669 --> 00:44:10,020 they're all very adversarial. 686 00:44:10,560 --> 00:44:14,729 And so that region that we called Middle East. 687 00:44:15,165 --> 00:44:20,475 Is therefore not conducive in the current moment for the strategy of well let the 688 00:44:20,475 --> 00:44:23,685 regional actors, figure it out and we'll. 689 00:44:24,480 --> 00:44:25,650 Operate from behind the scenes. 690 00:44:25,650 --> 00:44:29,490 I think the US will continue to have to do some heavy lifting. 691 00:44:29,790 --> 00:44:33,180 Does that mean that it's going to be militarily involved heavily? 692 00:44:33,180 --> 00:44:34,260 No, it doesn't have to be. 693 00:44:34,440 --> 00:44:37,860 I'm not saying we're pulling the fifth fleet out of Bahrain. 694 00:44:38,370 --> 00:44:42,210 I'm just saying, the aircraft carriers will keep coming and going. 695 00:44:42,720 --> 00:44:48,270 The carrier strike groups there will, the facilities that exist will stay there. 696 00:44:51,299 --> 00:44:55,980 We're, I think we're ready to say, Syria seems to have a logic 697 00:44:55,980 --> 00:44:58,049 now, so we don't need to be there. 698 00:44:58,470 --> 00:45:00,240 Iraq, we don't want to be there. 699 00:45:00,990 --> 00:45:04,740 And so if we can read something on the, with the Iranians on that, and that's 700 00:45:04,740 --> 00:45:09,120 also part of the conversation with Iran, then maybe you know, these troops that 701 00:45:09,120 --> 00:45:13,830 are here and there because those were placed because of the war against isis. 702 00:45:13,980 --> 00:45:14,700 That's over with. 703 00:45:15,000 --> 00:45:16,589 And so now you have a new dynamic. 704 00:45:17,430 --> 00:45:19,290 So can these players, can. 705 00:45:19,634 --> 00:45:22,365 Israel and Turkey deconflicted, Syria. 706 00:45:25,274 --> 00:45:27,104 do we need to be there to keep them apart? 707 00:45:27,765 --> 00:45:32,294 I don't think so, but we do need to be there diplomatic and use our sort 708 00:45:32,294 --> 00:45:37,245 of relationship play referee that doesn't require military presence. 709 00:45:38,325 --> 00:45:39,825 So that's, my thinking. 710 00:45:40,785 --> 00:45:41,145 All right. 711 00:45:41,834 --> 00:45:44,354 Camran, I could talk to you forever, but let's get you outta here on this 712 00:45:44,354 --> 00:45:47,415 last question 'cause we've danced all around it and talked about 713 00:45:47,415 --> 00:45:48,674 everything that's around it, but. 714 00:45:49,515 --> 00:45:52,725 Yeah, the Assad regime fell only what, six months ago. 715 00:45:53,865 --> 00:45:58,035 and then we've had, Israel being very aggressive on the Syrian border seizing 716 00:45:58,035 --> 00:45:59,654 towns thing, like things like that. 717 00:45:59,654 --> 00:46:04,335 We've had the Syrian Kurds basically give up some measure of their autonomy, 718 00:46:04,335 --> 00:46:07,455 their sovereignty, in order not to get, not to piss off the Turks and 719 00:46:07,455 --> 00:46:08,535 have the Turks rolling through. 720 00:46:09,525 --> 00:46:12,225 and otherwise, there was that first batch of violence after 721 00:46:12,225 --> 00:46:13,395 the fall of Assad, but it. 722 00:46:13,395 --> 00:46:16,495 Syria has seemed eerily quiet to me thus far. 723 00:46:16,915 --> 00:46:19,225 and in some ways it is the linchpin of the entire region. 724 00:46:19,225 --> 00:46:23,545 So get us outta here on thinking about Syria in the context of 725 00:46:23,545 --> 00:46:24,505 everything that you're talking about. 726 00:46:24,505 --> 00:46:27,925 It seems to be like the place where everybody's gonna compete, but, I'll, 727 00:46:27,925 --> 00:46:29,065 let you have the final word on it. 728 00:46:31,255 --> 00:46:34,345 Syria from an Israeli point of view is the Northern flank. 729 00:46:35,485 --> 00:46:40,255 you now have the makings of a state that is Sunni Islamist, 730 00:46:40,435 --> 00:46:46,484 if you will, And so that's not good from an Israeli perspective. 731 00:46:48,944 --> 00:46:53,055 Israel has not had to deal with strong states in the Arab 732 00:46:53,055 --> 00:46:54,435 world for a very long time. 733 00:46:55,334 --> 00:46:58,544 Egypt was taken off the board with the Camp David Accords. 734 00:46:59,924 --> 00:47:06,464 Syria was weak and Lebanon was a mess, and the Iranian were playing there and. 735 00:47:07,050 --> 00:47:11,250 There was this unstated, if you will, understanding with the Assad 736 00:47:11,250 --> 00:47:14,550 regime that, Hey, we don't want you. 737 00:47:14,850 --> 00:47:15,960 We don't want you gone. 738 00:47:16,110 --> 00:47:18,180 You don't want to piss us off. 739 00:47:18,600 --> 00:47:20,279 Just keep Hezbollah in check. 740 00:47:20,850 --> 00:47:25,560 That continued until the Arab Spring uprising, when the Assad regime 741 00:47:25,560 --> 00:47:30,750 went from actually being dominant in the Levan, became dependent on Iran 742 00:47:30,750 --> 00:47:32,340 and Hezbollah for its own survival. 743 00:47:32,400 --> 00:47:34,529 So that threw out that. 744 00:47:35,370 --> 00:47:36,900 Prior, if you will, arrangement. 745 00:47:38,820 --> 00:47:45,480 Jordan has always had an unstated understanding with, with, Israel. 746 00:47:46,830 --> 00:47:48,330 Syria is now changing. 747 00:47:48,360 --> 00:47:51,720 There's going to be a new Syria and you don't know where it's going. 748 00:47:53,220 --> 00:47:55,530 and it has a big backer called Turkey. 749 00:47:57,090 --> 00:47:58,980 so in many waves. 750 00:47:59,805 --> 00:48:04,065 Pushing Iran out of the Levant has had an unintended consequence of Turkey 751 00:48:04,275 --> 00:48:06,075 becoming the dominant tower there. 752 00:48:06,435 --> 00:48:10,035 So I think what's gonna happen in Syria is what the Israelis and 753 00:48:10,035 --> 00:48:11,835 the Turks agree on or disagree on. 754 00:48:12,615 --> 00:48:15,075 So I think that's where it is. 755 00:48:15,075 --> 00:48:21,525 As far, the, as far as Saudi Arabia is concerned, I think that they 756 00:48:21,525 --> 00:48:24,495 will have to find a way to work, and I think they all already are. 757 00:48:24,495 --> 00:48:28,725 You can see it from the fact that the new Syrian president, Ahad Al Shara. 758 00:48:29,520 --> 00:48:34,050 His first visit outside his country after becoming president was to Saudi Arabia. 759 00:48:35,130 --> 00:48:39,870 and so I think there's an understanding between the Saudis 760 00:48:39,870 --> 00:48:41,820 and the Turks as to where to go. 761 00:48:43,020 --> 00:48:46,560 but the Saudis are an economic power. 762 00:48:46,710 --> 00:48:47,940 They're not a military power. 763 00:48:48,450 --> 00:48:54,210 The Turks are a military power, and, they have aspirations in the 764 00:48:54,210 --> 00:48:55,860 full classic sense of being a great, 765 00:48:58,005 --> 00:48:59,445 How does that work with Israel? 766 00:48:59,895 --> 00:49:02,535 Can they reach a modest NDI for the short term? 767 00:49:03,915 --> 00:49:06,975 those are things that we should be watching, and yes, Syria 768 00:49:06,975 --> 00:49:08,145 is going to be important. 769 00:49:10,005 --> 00:49:16,845 but I still think that the Saudis have to figure out the Palestinian 770 00:49:16,845 --> 00:49:19,035 issue in order for them to be at ease. 771 00:49:19,634 --> 00:49:24,345 They can't, the Saudis wish that there wasn't this problem that they had to deal. 772 00:49:25,515 --> 00:49:30,884 they're probably very, Annoyed that the United States is not taking ownership of 773 00:49:30,915 --> 00:49:33,285 this issue and saying you deal with it. 774 00:49:34,035 --> 00:49:37,365 but this is a new reality that they will have to adjust. 775 00:49:39,375 --> 00:49:39,615 Yeah. 776 00:49:40,515 --> 00:49:43,634 I, don't think there are many things in the world I'm more cynical about 777 00:49:43,634 --> 00:49:45,495 than the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. 778 00:49:46,814 --> 00:49:49,935 and it seems to me that the Israelis will do whatever they're gonna do 779 00:49:49,935 --> 00:49:52,035 with Gaza and that the rest of the. 780 00:49:52,440 --> 00:49:55,440 Middle East will, I don't know, pay lip service to it, but that 781 00:49:55,440 --> 00:49:56,700 nobody's really gonna care. 782 00:49:57,060 --> 00:49:58,440 but maybe that's too cynical. 783 00:49:58,740 --> 00:50:02,370 all of these conflicts, Israel, Palestine, Kashmir between India and 784 00:50:02,370 --> 00:50:07,080 Pakistan, it's just we'll probably be here in 10 years speaking about the 785 00:50:07,080 --> 00:50:08,460 very same issues, don't you think? 786 00:50:10,110 --> 00:50:10,830 Hopefully not. 787 00:50:13,050 --> 00:50:13,950 I wanted to end 788 00:50:13,950 --> 00:50:15,270 on an optimistic note. 789 00:50:16,440 --> 00:50:17,670 If you have one, please share it. 790 00:50:17,670 --> 00:50:18,390 But it's hard to find. 791 00:50:18,540 --> 00:50:21,840 I guess the optimistic note is that, we are probably gonna get 792 00:50:21,840 --> 00:50:23,850 an Iran US deal of some sort. 793 00:50:23,850 --> 00:50:25,770 It does seem like that is the future of that. 794 00:50:25,770 --> 00:50:30,270 And if the, Olympians are, not busy crashing against each other than maybe 795 00:50:30,270 --> 00:50:33,540 the smaller countries and smaller peoples in between them aren't gonna get crushed. 796 00:50:33,540 --> 00:50:36,030 But as for the proximate conflicts themselves, I, it's 797 00:50:36,030 --> 00:50:37,200 pretty hard to be optimistic. 798 00:50:37,200 --> 00:50:37,470 No. 799 00:50:38,745 --> 00:50:40,395 It is hard to be optimistic. 800 00:50:40,425 --> 00:50:41,175 It's just that, 801 00:50:43,305 --> 00:50:51,285 I feel like people have to get tired of onsets for so long, And, 802 00:50:52,725 --> 00:50:58,635 I'm, I, remain optimistic about the human averseness to suffering. 803 00:50:59,805 --> 00:51:04,020 but then again, there's the other part of the human condition, which are called. 804 00:51:04,575 --> 00:51:06,015 The propensity to conflict. 805 00:51:06,735 --> 00:51:07,845 So we'll see. 806 00:51:08,085 --> 00:51:08,475 I hope. 807 00:51:08,475 --> 00:51:10,755 I just hope we're not talking about these things in 10 years. 808 00:51:11,310 --> 00:51:12,450 Yeah, unfortunately, I hope 809 00:51:12,660 --> 00:51:15,149 we're talking about different things, have different problems. 810 00:51:15,540 --> 00:51:15,660 Yeah. 811 00:51:15,660 --> 00:51:18,689 I hope we're talking about how Saudi Arabia has transformed into 812 00:51:18,689 --> 00:51:21,689 a liberal democracy in the middle of the desert and Neo is doing 813 00:51:21,689 --> 00:51:23,520 everything and, everything is fine. 814 00:51:23,520 --> 00:51:24,870 But, I don't know. 815 00:51:24,870 --> 00:51:25,259 That feels 816 00:51:25,439 --> 00:51:26,819 intelligence is running the place. 817 00:51:28,680 --> 00:51:30,000 Alright, thanks Kamran. 818 00:51:30,000 --> 00:51:30,779 It's always great to see you. 819 00:51:31,455 --> 00:51:31,845 All right. 820 00:51:31,935 --> 00:51:32,325 Cheers. 821 00:51:37,425 --> 00:51:40,245 Thank you so much for listening to the Jacob Shapiro podcast. 822 00:51:40,395 --> 00:51:44,205 the show is produced and edited by Jacob Mian, and it's in, 823 00:51:44,205 --> 00:51:45,465 in many ways, the Jacob Show. 824 00:51:45,885 --> 00:51:48,915 if you enjoyed today's episode, please don't forget to subscribe, 825 00:51:49,215 --> 00:51:50,595 rate or leave a review. 826 00:51:50,655 --> 00:51:52,875 It takes just a couple seconds of your time, but it really helps 827 00:51:52,875 --> 00:51:55,845 us also share with a friend if you're interested in learning more. 828 00:51:55,910 --> 00:52:00,170 About hiring me to speak at your event or if you wanna learn more about the wealth 829 00:52:00,170 --> 00:52:04,759 management services that, I offer through bespoke or cognitive investments, you can 830 00:52:04,759 --> 00:52:07,279 find more information@jacobshapiro.com. 831 00:52:07,279 --> 00:52:11,420 You can also write to me directly at jacob@jacobshapiro.com. 832 00:52:11,779 --> 00:52:14,029 I'm also on, on X for now at the handle. 833 00:52:14,029 --> 00:52:14,810 Jacob Shap. 834 00:52:14,810 --> 00:52:16,549 That's Jacob, SHAP. 835 00:52:16,549 --> 00:52:19,670 No DATs dash or anything else, but I'm not hard to find. 836 00:52:21,379 --> 00:52:21,890 see you out there.