Hey, welcome to the Fantasy Football Game Plan. It's week five. We are talking player props for this week. Who's going to do well? Who's not going to do well? Just some of our favorite bets. How did we do in week four?

We were about 50 50, and if you had that ghost leg promo, it probably worked out better for you, and you probably did a little bit better than that. We were actually came up one punch short on our

Hmm.

which I think that's gonna be the last time we ever say that. I think I'm staying away. Just taking an under and making it easy. And the stupid titans being cowards and running out the clock in the fourth quarter,

Yeah,

that. So I was

I always

about that.

Me too. I thought we were gonna hit it at halftime 'cause they had already had five.

Yeah, it was kind of fun keeping the punt tracker alive. We were texting back and forth of how many punts we needed. But I'm just gonna take the under from now on that, under crushed in that game. And so we live and learn, but up we were still positive and we're still up about 11 units on the year so far. We're having a good run to start this year. But last week was kind of 50 50.

Well, let's get into this week. We're just dodging injuries it feels like this week, you know, we knew the big ones going into the week with like Malik neighbors, but then there have been so many popping up. Trey Benson, I think you said Chuba. Chubba Hubbard was popping up today. So, you know, everyone just keeps getting injured.

running back every day now, so.

And they're not even playing.

Mm-hmm.

start us off with your first prop, but what do you like?

Okay, this one, I have a couple of options, but it's the same theme. It is targeting the Saints ground game against the Giants. And the Giants are dead last in the league and EPA per rush. The Saints are actually top 10 in their success rate on rushes. They just normally are behind in games, they're not rushing that much. It's probably the only time we're actually gonna get the Saints. Ground game in a positive game script. They're actually favorite at home, which is of remarkable. I mean, Spencer Rattler has never won a game in the NFL and now he's a favorite against the Giants. But Vegas likes it. I like betting on Alvin Kamara in the spot, I like over 57 and a half yards. But the other option you have is Kendra Miller, over 28 and a half yards. We saw him get more involved. Do you have a lien on those two running backs there?

I really like the 28 yards, 28 and a half yards for Kendra Miller. Just seeing how much work that he's been getting, and because this is the rushing attack, I think I would lean towards Miller.

Yeah, I can

I think you're.

Kamara is

the Kamara side, but yeah.

here. 57 and a half. I think he's still got it. He just, they've been kinda splitting the carries more to. You know, he's part of their future. He is not go, they're not gonna win the championship this year. And they need to save him for future years, but they also wanna see what they have in Kendra Miller.

Yeah, I like, just because of the rushing, I like Kendra Miller. If we could, you know, find the line where we were doing a combined rushing and passing yards, then I might be persuaded to Kamara.

That is another way you can play it. I've seen some markets where they have these two running backs combined, so you could play their combined yards if you don't want to take your shot on either, just say Saints running backs.

Yeah, there you go. Okay, what else do we have? I think we'll win that one.

Yeah, I we're kind of leaning on our strengths here. We've done really good predicting this, the ground attacks. And this is one of my favorite players. I'm going back to the well with Omarion Hampton over 14 and a half for his longest rush. he hit this multiple times. He looked really good against the Giants and it was the Giants defense, but he looked good. And I think that Charger's team is kind of learning how to play for Hampton and how to set up his blocks better too. And what. Compliments his strengths. In college he had this really good profile of mainly a gap, like succeeding on gap concepts instead his own concepts. And that's what he was excelled at and that's where his huge chunk plays. And they read a lot of zone concepts and the first couple weeks, but they've started shifting away from that. I was actually pulling stats to see if that's translating in in the NFL and Hampton on zone concepts, which is. The most concept or the most common concept in the NFL. He's 40th inefficiency, uh,, minimum 10 attempts, but on those gap concepts, he's actually number one in the NFL, and the most efficient running back. With the offense shifting, I think they're gonna have to lean on that ground game to protect Herbert in this game. I like Hampton to break off a 15 yard rush. We saw him do it a couple times last week.

We did. And yeah, the commander's defense hasn't been too stingy on what they're giving up either. They've got their own problems to, to deal with. And so I, I, I, Marian Hampton is one of my favorite players. And now with the injury to Naji Harris, he's. He's got it. And they are, like you said, they're learning how to work for him. And since this isn't a split anymore, he gets more tries at it. So if all he needs is one rush to be 15 yards along, I like this.

Yeah, he's gonna have his chances. I mean, I think his snap percentage was up to 90% last week,

Yeah, that's crazy. I have a passing, prop for us. I like McMillan for the Panthers to be over four and a half receptions. That seemed really low for me, but I bet him last week too, and that didn't hit. This one just feels very safe. For me, I don't know. The Panthers going against the dolphins. He's averaged 8.8 targets over the four weeks. And there have only been two weeks where he didn't hit this. One of those was against Atlanta at home when they didn't need him to, when they shut out Atlanta, 30 to nothing, then he didn't hit it. But this week they're back at home against the Dolphins. I think the. Dolphins are gonna put up a little bit more of a fight than we saw Atlanta do here in Carolina. On that week, how, what do you think on this one is Tmac getting love from you? This, this week

I love it. 'cause I mean, he's kind of been the

I.

of consistency too. He's had over eight targets in every single game so far this year. So getting a four and a half reception line for kind of a sure handed wide receiver. They're also gonna need him. Like we mentioned, Hubbard might not play and if he does play, he is probably gonna be limited and they don't have a lot of other wide receiving options still out there.

Yeah, they don't, it is a minus 1 36, you know, you could go up to the five and a half if you wanna push it and get a little bit better odds. At that point you may even start, you know, getting near positive.

Yep. Or you can take the safe leg if you want to add it into a parlay. It's an option there too.

Exactly. That's, I need to look for this one in, you know, one of those two leg parlays, that maybe we can do. It's this weekend.

Yeah, I think that'd be fun. The next one I wanna bring up is the London game. And I just want to take this under it is Carson Wentz versus Dylan Gabriel against two of the best defenses in the entire league. And 36 and a half just seems like a lot. I mean, that's hit For Cleveland Games, half of their games have been under 30 points. I am also interested in taking that alt line under 30 if you want a higher payout here. Typically when we see these drastically low totals, they're actually worse than we think. Like when we see like a 36 or 35 point under, a lot of times they hit under 30 and under those alt lines,

Yeah, I wish, I would've bet this one when the lines opened, this week, because I think it was up around 39, 38 and a half is where it opened. But, it's getting pushed down. What's, what's the bottom for you? You know, where are you not going to take the under at this, on this game?

Honestly, I don't know if there is a bottom, like if you wanna like. Keep laddering it down so you can start at 36 and that's what I've done on this game. I've started at 36 and a half, and then I have a little bit less on the 30 and a half line, and then I have a little bit less under 25 and a half. And then if you want to even say no touchdown or like sprinkle the defensive touchdowns in this game, I'm perfectly fine with that. Like I like Judkins, but I hate every other piece in this game. It's also a rookie against that Brian Flores defense. So good luck.

Yeah, that should be interesting. the next one is. You know, the opposite of that. It's a longest touchdown yards bet. And, I hadn't seen these actually before, so I was really excited to find, find this one. I'm pretty excited about the Tampa Bay, Buccaneers game in Seattle. On Sunday, and this bet is the longest touchdown to be over 36 and a half yards, and it's a minus one 15. But by betting the longest touchdown, you're going to get both Jackson Smith Najiba and a Mecca Buca. In this, you're gonna get the whole team. So If anybody has a touchdown over 36 and a half yards in this game, then you hit this prop. These defensives have given up four big passes this, this year to wide receivers. And these two wide receivers are more talented than, than what they've been facing. JSN has hit this in the first three weeks, and in week four he had a 36 yard touchdown. He was just a yard shy of it. Omeka Buka last week had a 77 yard touchdown. And Bucky Irving, even though he's. Probably not playing. He also had a 70 yarder as well. So we know that these two teams are capable of hitting that very easily, and they've done it and they've both given it up as well this year.

Yeah, those defenses like to take risks. They also go for a lot of turnovers too. I am also curious if that's another wind condition we have here because. Baker has gotten a lucky, has gotten a little bit lucky that some of his interceptions have been dropped by corners, but

Mm.

37 yard pick six, that's also another wind condition here. So

I think you're right. I think that has to be included in this. I don't know, we may, we may find out the rules on the longest touchdown,

the fine

prop, but yeah, it's always learning. Maybe we'll get multiple ones.

Fair enough.

What do you got for touchdown scores? This one's always so hard for me. I feel like it's difficult to. To predict these touchdown scores. How did we do on touchdown scores last week?

We hit our undervalued running back, with Travis ETN. He broke off a long one and made it pretty easy. So a nice start to that Sunday slate. Dante Thornton Jr. Dropped his in zone He had it in his hands and just decided he didn't want it, which would've turned it into a good. Day for the touchdown market. And then Lamar Jackson went out early and that game Never really competitive, so we only went one for three last, last week. But, I like our picks this week. I want to kick it off with kind of more of a surefire one. In, in my mind is David Montgomery minus 180 5. I think they're just gonna steamroll the Bengals and we know those are the spotlights spots where Montgomery thrives. Whenever Lions are heavy favorites, they just try to lean on that running game and they typically try to give them the red zone work.

They do and like we talked about in our DFS episode as well, they like to spread it around. So when they are heavy favorites and when they are scoring easily, they don't just give it all to one person, that everybody gets a touchdown and you know it's gonna be montgomery's turn at some point in this game, I'm pretty sure to get that to.

The, uh,, next option going back to the rookie you brought up earlier in Carolina, is I like McMillan to actually get into the end zone. I like roa. Plus one 40. He is getting those red zone targets. He had two last week, but now he gets to go against one of the worst secondaries in the league. The dolphins are allowing the 30, they're 31st ranked in passing EPA allowed. I like him to finally get in the end zone and we've been just been waiting for that. We talked about in NDFS, we're like waiting for that breakout game, I'm calling it here. With them getting in, in the end zone at plus one 40.

I like both of these. What are you selling me on next?

The third one is going back to the lines game. It can't get worse for the Bengals, right?

I don't know.

truly just that we think the Bengals are lifeless, but they have too much talent on the roster to just remain at the absolute bottom forever. And t Higgins, he is getting a high workload. I think plus two 15 is a value for him. And especially we can get this in garbage time. Like the game doesn't have to be close. It all counts the same. But I just like Higgins to bounce back here. I don't think since he's gonna look as bad as they did on the road against two great defenses, I think coming home helps. The, the backup browning.

Yeah, I think coming home is gonna help him as well. Not that they're gonna, you know, put up much of a fight in this game, but maybe they get some points in, in garbage time

The, uh,, so those are our three official touchdown bets. The other one I want to throw out there is Michael Carter. He should be filling in as the lead back for the cardinals. He, I already saw him at plus 1 35. If you don't wanna play 'em in the touchdown market, the other market that typically opens Sunday morning. Is who's gonna lead that game in rushing. Depending on what his value is, check it out on Sunday morning. If you like that price, I think he's gonna be the lead back for the Cardinals over D Ma Carta.

Yeah, that is a good point that we should probably mention that. A, we're always looking at these prop bets, but they come out later in the week, on Thursday we're kind of scouring everything and we're still not even finding some of the things where there are more injury concerns that they will just hold them off of the market and they'll come out closer to game time.

Yeah, and once they release them, they're pretty polished on when it comes to the basics, you know? Over under rushing yards, over under receiving yards, touchdown markets. But the more niche you get in the market, like leading a specific game environment, then you can capitalize on those injuries.

Well, and today, although they had Michael Carter's lines out on Thursday, they did not have de mercado's. Numbers established yet, so they were still holding out to see how they were going to price that out. What do we got on a parlay and are we doing the ghost leg? Did you, did you place, if you placed your bet on Thursday to get that ghost leg token, then you can do this as a ghost leg and you would've won last week if you had the ghost leg token.

Yeah, maybe we'll start having to post a quick short for our Thursday night football, SGP to earn the token. But assuming you do have it, you cashed last week and I'm going back to it. I still got my token, so. Um, I have my bet for the, the Rams 49 ERs game today. But for our parlay, this is a plus 559, total odds. The first leg is Jordan Mason under 68 and a half, Russian yards. And the way this parlay sets up too, is you have kind of a check-in bet at each timeframe. So I like it. You get us started off in the morning, and then we have one the first window and one the second window. Want to target unders against this Brown's defense. We killed it with Montgomery. I think he had 12 yards on nine rushes against this Brown's defense. And you just can't run between the tackles on these Cleveland Browns.

Yeah, the bronze are very good against the rush. They're just very good.

They

defense.

Yeah. So 68 and a half is just too high for me. That is a minus minus one leg. The next bet is Michael Pittman over four and a half receptions at minus one 18. he's hit this in three or four weeks so far. He also excels in against zone coverage. He has about a 25% target share in zone coverage. And why I bring that up is because Raiders are second in the league and running zone three and zone four, on defense. It just sets up well as a good matchup him and. Tyler Warren, kind of excel against zone, but I like it. Pittman's, the trustworthy target. You also can't really run against the Raiders. They've been one of the best rushing defenses in the entire league. It just sets up well that they're gonna force them into what they're already comfortable with.

Sounds good. How are we finishing it off?

The last leg is the Houston Texans taking the over for their team points. We just want to beat up on the Ravens defense, who is just. Not what we thought they were. And not only that have they looked bad, but they lost three additional starters. We brought up this team as a stacking option in DFS, and I like to attack against this Ravens defense that's allowing 33 and a quarter points per game.

It does seem pretty low and yeah, we, we talked on DFS that Stroud is projected to have his most fantasy points in over a year

Yeah. And 20 and a half seems like a critical number. You know, it's like you get three touchdowns, you're there. I did wanna mention that the Texans have success against teams that have a poor pass rush. Like if you can't get to Stroud that it's gonna be a long day. That's where he excels. And right now Baltimore is sitting, currently sitting at 31st. As far as sac rate, right between Carolina and Tennessee, and they

Wow.

defensive tackle. I don't think it's gonna get any better.

That's amazing.

But in total, that

right.

559 parlay. We will have the bet slips.

I.

if you want to tail any of these bets, please bet responsibly.

Well that's it for week five. Tell us your favorite play in the comments, play smart. Have fun, and see you next time.