Hey, hey. Good morning, good afternoon, good evening, wherever you may be. Scott Lewton and Billy Ray Taylor with you here on supply chain now, welcome to today's livestream. Hey, Billy Ray, how you doing today?

I'm doing well, Scott. How about yourself? Excited to be here as normal.

Well, I thought it was an outstanding conversation we had last week. I look forward to another great one here today. And hey, whenever you can spend an hour with Billy Ray Taylor, you're going to have a good day. So it's great to have you in from the Houston area. Right? It's where you at today, right, Billy Ray?

That's correct. That's correct. I'm at home and relaxing a little bit.

Good, good, good. I know you've had a busy, busy few weeks here. We'll get into that maybe a little more later in today's show. But, folks, as always, on Monday, every Monday, twelve noon eastern time, it is the buzz where we discuss a variety of news and developments across global supply chain and business. And today, folks, we got some really interesting stories to get into. Updated numbers on the US manufacturing sector. We got an update analysis on the tentative ILA and USMX deal and a whole bunch more. So buckle up and get ready. We're going to have really strong manufacturing themes baked into today's buzz, aren't we, Billy Ray?

Yes, we are. It's going to be exciting, as you say, the conversation right before in the green room. I think it's gonna be packed with things that are gonna engage the audience.

Completely agree. And if all that's not good enough, we have a wonderful guest joining us in just a few minutes, a good friend doing big things out in industry. We're gonna be joined by John Gold with the National Retail Federation in just a few minutes, so stay tuned. Hey, two things before we get going, folks. First off, just like Omian, great to see you here today. If I mispronounced your first name, my apologies. We'll try to get it. All right, let us know where you're tuned in from. Sean is back from Ontario, Canada. Welcome in to y'all both. Great to have you here today. So just like those gentlemen, hey, give us your take in the comments. Whether you're tuned into LinkedIn, YouTube, X, Facebook, Twitch, no matter, let us know what you think. And secondly, if you enjoy today's show, and I've got a hunch you are, I hope we welcome your feedback as always. But hey, we'd love for you to share it with a friend or your network. Call sharing is caring indeed. Okay, so, Billy Ray, we got a few announcements before we bring in John from NRF, and we're going to talk a lot about the ILA USMX tentative deal. We got. We got some resources here with folks, right?

Yes, we do. Yes, we do.

So let's start with our almost weekly newsletter we dropped over the weekend with. That said, we recognized cybersecurity Awareness month here in October. So, Billy Ray, did you know cybercrime is expected to cost the entire planet over $10 trillion by 2025? Which would make it more lucrative, in a weird way, than the global illicit drugs industry. How about that for some perspective? That's crazy also, isn't it, though, when it comes to cyber talent, according to the World Economic Forum, there's a shortage of nearly 4 million cyber professionals. Sounds like a big career opportunity to me. So, folks, check it out. We included a lot more on cybersecurity awareness month. That's each and every October. We included news, views, events, resources, tools, you name it. And we were talking in the pre show, Billy Ray and I think we all probably have rubbed elbows with organizations that have been bit by the cyberbug. No different in your background, huh?

Absolutely. I encourage people to go back and read the article because what you're going to see is a staggering 93% of organizations face these breaches and they're unaware of it. In most cases, organization, that's one of the first places they cut. They don't see the value. And so for me, I've had personal friends and organizations recently get hit with the cyber bug, and they're so clever with it that they can get right to your bank account or your funders. And so you have to be very careful because that's painful. It can be pain. It can destroy an organization.

No doubt. No doubt. As T squared says to security is boring until something happens that is. Right. T squared, as always, great to have you here. And we talk about this a lot because cyber is a top topic, especially when you think of global supply chains with big ecosystems, and you got transfer points across a multitude of different teams and organizations. The cyber attacks are growing, but they're also growing in complexity, growing in quantity and growing in complexity. So, folks, take this opportunity. Cyber is something we, it's important year round, but take this month of October to call timeout and just evaluate where you are and see if you can't shine a bigger flashlight in your blind spot that we all have, because you don't want to get bit, no bit, no matter how small, by a cybersecurity issue. Okay, Billy, speaking of resources, I also want to share this one here. So, folks, great event coming up in November, tfest 24, T Fest 2024. Coming up November 11 through 13th in Berlin, Germany. Now, folks, this is a tremendous event for a variety of you out there. Senior supply chain leaders driving innovation across that entire ecosystem. I was talking about a second ago, procurement, manufacturing, logistics professionals seeking to optimize operations. And here's a great catch all. Anyone passionate about shaping the future of a more resilient and efficient supply chain. Folks, we even have a discount code for you. Tfs, 25 for, 25% off of the registration. We're dropping that link right there in the chat. Get out, let us know what you think. And say hello to our dear friends Maria over at the Future Insights Network. Billy Ray, we can't stop learning, right? That's the one thing that's guaranteed to bring failure, huh?

Yes. My father and I had that conversation this weekend. He was just saying literature, literature, literature. And it was interesting, Scott, as he said to me, you know, that sweet potato pie grandma used to make, we can't replicate it because we haven't documented it. We haven't learned. We don't have that traceability. And so when you say that learning, that whole complex is how we evolve and how we remember things and grow, I like it.

I like it. You know, a lot of organizations right now, for years, as the exodus takes place, a lot of folks retiring, right. They're trying hard to document all that tribal knowledge before the folks leave. Right, Billy Ray?

Absolutely. And when you have that, that's the transfer of knowledge.

That's right.

That's what take place. If you don't, you're relying on memory. And I forget so many things. And so I get it, Scott. So I want to hear a lot about you in this weekend, too, down the road, but about you and the hammer. Right. And for those that don't know, Scott had a big sleepover, and I'll let him talk about it. But that knowledge, who you think, right. Who's who you think is the expert is not really the expertise.

That's right, Billy. Way, Billy Ray is alluding to a long running home improvement project that me and Amanda have had here in Walton County, Georgia. And we certainly learned who has all the talent and the skillset with building stuff, and it's not me. So I'm thankful. I'm thankful. Amanda truly is my better half. All right. So kidding aside, though, on a more serious note, folks, we are big fans. Big fans of the american logistics aid Network. We have been around this group for years. Kathy Fulton and team, they're doing incredible things in all sorts of disasters, not just Hurricane Helene, but they are deeply involved in those recovery operations helping the us southeast, gosh, recover from an awful, awful disaster. So we invite you to check out our friends at the American Logistics Aid Network. This is a proven, vetted nonprofit doing big things to help folks in need. We're dropping a link to the organization there. And if you're in position to give, no matter how small, how big, no matter, please do so. A lot of folks need your help. And Billy Ray, you've spent some time during, early in your career leading a plant in North Carolina, where North Carolina and Tennessee has probably seen the worst of the disaster. You've checked in on your former colleagues. Are they okay?

They're okay, but they've suffered some major setbacks from power, from workforce adjustments and those things that's disrupting their whole organization. I'm happy to hear that most of them are safe, but they've got a long road to recovery.

That's right. That's right. So they're going to need your, all of our help. There's lots of other great organizations helping out. This happens to be top of my list. So check out Allen aidan.org and see if there's a way you can get involved to help support those recurricane recovery operations. Okay. On a much, much lighter note, we have an outstanding guest, a long, long time friend of the show, joining us here today to talk about one of the biggest news stories, the biggest developments that supply chain leaders have had their eyes and ears on for weeks, if not months. So, Bill Array, I want to take this opportunity to introduce our special guest here today, Jonathan Gold, vice president of supply chain and customs policy with the National Retail Federation. Hey, John, how you doing today? Good.

Good to see you, Scott. Billy Ray, how are you?

Well, you as well. Your dolphins are navigating through a good year, John. Hey, you know what, I will take, there's lots of groups. Like what? The Jaguars, the Panthers. They're having some tougher, tougher days, but progress, progress, progress. But, you know, let's talk about the culinary scene. So, Billy Ray, as I was sharing pre show, me and John had the opportunity to connect over breakfast, a delicious breakfast up in the, up in Washington, DC a few weeks back. And we kind of talking aside from industry, which was a fascinating conversation, I left there with about 18 pages of notes from John's, uh, perspective. But we started talking about how underappreciated Washington, DC is as a culinary capital, amongst other things. So, John, for a little fun warm up question before we get into the serious stuff, what is. And it's tough to pare it down, but what's one restaurant that folks gotta check out as a venture into DC?

Scott? I would say anything by Jose Andres. I think some of our favorites are still Zetania and Oyamel are just absolutely fantastic.

Oh, I'm with you. And if Oyamal, if you go there, folks, take a wheelbarrow so you can leave there with a big amount of their guacamole. Oh, my gosh. I'm telling you, all the dishes are good, but that's a good one. John. All right, so Billy Ray, likewise, you're in the Houston area. Houston's got a bunch of delicious restaurants. I've enjoyed a few of them myself earlier in my travels. What's one, though, that folks got to check out when they come to Houston?

The breakfast club. I mean, it is out at home cooking from scratch. That breakfast, my wife and I, and a good cup of coffee. It's the breakfast club you gotta get, miss.

But no one's in trouble at that breakfast club. Is that right, Billy?

That's a fact. That's.

No Saturday all day detentions at this breakfast club.

Not at all.

Good stuff, just good food. Well, that's right. And you know what? You know, uh, we talked a lot about food here. Uh, you know, food and sports and whatnot. But food, you know, get. Getting you through tough times. Food brings people together, right? And that's how we, we solve problems and and, uh, progress as a society. So good stuff there, John and Billy Ray, speaking of, uh, challenges that we're trying to work to solve, everybody has been tracking this ILA USMx development from, really for months. It's kind of had a crescendo in recent weeks. And we're getting John's expert take here in just a second about that. But John, before we get there, I think our audience members, especially folks, some of our newer members that haven't caught some of your past appearances with us, they might benefit from some context about what the National Retail Federation does and what you do there. Would you share a little about that, John?

Sure.

Thanks.

God. So, National Retail Federation, we're the world's largest retail trade association. We represent everybody from these small, single store operators up to large format big box stores, online chain restaurants, and everybody in between. Hopefully some of your favorite stores. We are a full service trade association, doing everything from government affairs and lobbying to conferences, education and research. So my job, I'm the Scott, you noted, the vice president for supply chain and customs policy. And I sit on the government affairs side of the house, and I handle all of our issues pertaining to supply chain trade, customs issues, product safety, and some loss prevention issues, including retail crime and cargo theft. So, you know, my whole job is kind of interaction with both the administration and Congress on laws and regulations. And obviously, you know, we saw last week there's a lot of interaction, both Congress and administration, to try and address it and get the parties, you know, back to the table and the ports open again.

Yeah, I'm with you. And that's where we're going next. Billy Ray. And Billy Ray, come to you. That last point that John mentioned, you know, when we're, when we've got some really big divides out there in industry that can impact so many different organizations and workers and families, we got to pull every lever possible, from industry leadership to organizational leadership to certainly the government and their leadership, to get involved and have the conversations. We got to have to find that common ground. Sometimes it's a lot trickier and tougher than others. But Billy Ray, we got to pull every, every lever we can, huh?

Yes, yes. Those complexities of business, I mean, if you're not careful, it will drag you down and, you know, you have to have someone with a seat at the table. Right. Put all this stuff together, business continuity, those things are what would drive a company and keep a company thriving.

That's right. And we got to get all the voices in the room, right. To have the conversations we need. And, and the good news here, folks, the good news is we got to a little bit of a respite last week, and I chose that word very specifically, John, and I'll tell you why in just a second. Let me, let me share a quick update before we get John's analysis here. So as reported here by the AP, we got a bit of a respite last week as the ALA and the USMX reached a tentative agreement that saw the LA suspended strike. The USMX offer reportedly a 62% wage increase over six years. Three, the current master contract was extended until January 15. Right. But they, the LA reserves the right to strike again. Right. So I would call, I think tentative is a very accurate tag to place on this. But John, tell us more, what are the angles here that we should all be watching.

Sure. So, you know, maybe we give some context on kind of, you know, how, how we got here. So I think, as you know, most folks know, the contract, the six year contract, between the ILA and USMX was set to expire on September 30. The parties actually started having early conversations about a six year extension back in, I think it was late 2022. Unfortunately, the conversations fell apart in 2023. But there was some hope at that point that we were going to get a contract extension that would provided certainty through 2030. We actually, as NRF, wrote to the parties in January of 2024 saying, hey, it's time to get back to the table and start having negotiations once again because we know how complicated these labor contracts are. We just came off of the west coast labor negotiations, which took, I think, over 18 months to get a final deal. We had the challenges with ups and teamsters and the railroads, so, I mean, we've gone through four years of some pretty tough labor negotiations within the supply chain. So the parties announced in February they were getting back to the table. We were going to have negotiations on all the local contracts, get that completed by May, and then turn to the master contract and get that completed before the end of September. Mid May, the parties jointly announced, hey, we're making progress. We're on track to get back to the master contract. Majority of the locals are done. All of a sudden. On June 10, ILA president Harold Daggett announced, we're halting all negotiations on the, the outstanding local and master contract because of an automation issue at the port of mobile. From that point forwards, there were no conversations between the parties. USMX continuously called for the parties to come back together. You know, we started raising the alarm bells in late June, we sent a coalition letter to the parties and to the administration saying, hey, you know, time to get back to the table and start working on negotiations. We had 150 plus different trade associations sign on to that letter. We sent another letter in September 7, right after Labor Day. And again the rhetoric started getting, ramping up about, you know, if we don't get a deal, we're going to go to strike. At that point we had 175 plus groups that signed on to the letter. And then finally, you know, again, there were no contract negotiations. USMX continuously called them to come back to the table. You know, ILA president Harold Daggett continued to be, you know, more and more rhetoric was coming out about, you know, we're going to strike if there's no contract wanting his demands for that. At that point, you know, 77% pay increase, the automation issue, royalties, benefits, you know, all these other outstanding issues. So strike happens on 12:01 a.m. on October 1, we sent another coalition to the president, signed by, you know, 200 or I, yeah, close to 300 groups again calling for the president to get engaged and end the strike, because we know how damaging a strike can be to the national economy, especially when you have entire East coast and Gulf coast ports that are shut down. So October 3, there was a late afternoon, early evening announcement that they were suspending the port strike. There was a tentative agreement on the wage issue with management providing a 62% increase in wages over the life of the contract, six year contract. The strike was going to end and the parties were going to get back to the table to negotiate. But I think the important point, as you notice, guys, that this is a ten of agreement, they still have to get a full agreement on a new six year deal. They've given themselves now, you know, 90 plus days to get an agreement by January 15. But they've got to get back to the table, start having those conversations, because there are some real serious issues that need to be discussed, the biggest one being automation. And for folks who haven't been paying attention to this, would really encourage you to take a look at some of the ILA stance on where they are on automation, semi automation and technology in general. And we can certainly talk about more of that. But I mean, we are now a couple of days in and we gotta get the parties back to the table to continue negotiating.

So, John, I really appreciate that timeline and all that you and NRF leadership, y'all have been exhibiting and the alliance that y'all have been building the across industry to help drive conversations and action. You know, you touched on lots of that stuff there. I want to, I think I share with pre show John and Billy Rowe with you both that last week I was having lunch with a couple of chief supply chain officers, one leading a really big consumer products, um, organization, and one leading a flooring organization. Great conversation. But one of they both, when we got to the topic of the LA and USMX stuff, they both said folks, not folks. Scott. Hey, keep your eye on the compensation piece. But John, to your point, this automation piece, that is what's going to be, could be a major sticking point. And they both stressed how important it is that our ports across not just Gulf and east coast, but all of american ports leverage automation and keep driving competitive advantage gains and capacity gains and more. So that was a fascinating, timely conversation I had. But Billy Ray, based on what, John, the timeline he laid out, some of the things there, including, you know, all the groups stopped talking on or around June 10 for several months. What did you hear there from John? Billy Ray, that you should point out, and, you know, Billy Ray, in your role back when you were leading manufacturing operations across North America for Goodyear, I bet you interacted with the great folks over at our ports on a regular basis, huh?

Absolutely. Absolutely. Basically, that's that flow, that flow of product at Goodyear, raw materials came in. So if we didn't have raw materials, we couldn't make the tire. And once we made the tire, we could not ship the tire, especially globally. And so that type of disruption goes right into your bank account. Right. That type of disruption impacts your people, people's employment, and, and so that. And you have to be, be very careful because I was a big part of negotiations at Goodyear as well.

Yeah.

And how do you keep, keep that, the both teams, both sides, right. Feeling that they are aligned and appreciated. And I'm gonna say that's a big thing. When, when workers don't feel they're valued or their representation, they're not quick to come back to the table. And this is just a preliminary. It's not final yet.

Yep. You know, just the complexity comes pouring out of my ears as I heard you, Billy Ray, kind of talk about that, especially on the scale that, involving so many people, so many different ports and so many different organizations and the workers, not just in the ports, but those in the plants. John, we were talking pre show Billy Ray's reference in his time, you know, making tires, leading groups making tires, 38,000 tires a day was their target. And Billy Ray's. We've talked about playing times round and black and out the back. I love that mantra. So. All right, so, John, circling back to you, um, any possible snags, which we clearly have identified, one being automation. But come January 2025, right after this 90 day period or so, hopefully we'll have a eureka moment. But who knows? Uh, truly tentative. What other possible snags would you caution us about? Cause no one, no one wants a long, painful, disruptive, and costly strike. John?

Yeah, I think just to highlight what Billy Roy was saying, I mean, look, the impact of a port strike is far and wide, you know, while we consistently get called about the impact on retail and impact on holiday, because, you know, right now we're in the midst of the peak shipping season when all that important holiday merchandise is coming in for Thanksgiving, for Christmas, for Hanukkah. So, you know, the ability to get product to market for consumers so they have those gifts is critically important. But the other part of this, too, is that you've got manufacturers who are relying on those inputs to production, like Billy Ray was talking about. You've got our farmers who are trying to get products to market, and if they don't go on time, you know, they could potentially spoil. You've got a lost market. You know, there's a lot of food product that comes in through the southeastern ports. You know, we all saw things about the bananas, that 75% of our bananas come in through those ports. And if they're shut down, you know, you potentially be out of bananas. So, you know, that's how critical this is. I mean, you look at, I think JPMorgan came out with a number last week or the week before, you know, $5 billion a day hit to the economy because of a port strike. And the important part here, too, is that it's not just about the strike itself, but it's that recovery time once the ports are open again, getting things back up and running and getting back to the normal situation, which is always a challenge to begin with. But you're looking at potentially three to five days or longer every day a port is shut down, and that compounds the longer it goes. I mean, thankfully, this was short term. Three days, you're looking at two, maybe three weeks. Again, depends upon the port and the readiness and ability to churn and burn and get the ships in and get the containers out as quickly as possible. But again, we saw what happened here going forward. Fast forwarding to January. Look, if the parties don't get back to the table this week and start having those tough conversations, they could be right back in the same spot again. This automation issue is a huge issue for the union and has been for close to two decades. You know, the long time that I've been working on these issues, unfortunately, you've got the ILA president, Harold Daggett, who just fully does not support automation, semi automation, or any kind of real technology improvements at the port. But you look at our ports and how inefficient they are and the productivity levels on the global scale. You look at ports overseas that use automation technology and again, cranking things out as quickly as possible, which actually helps benefit labor as well, because the more productive you are, the more containers that are coming through, and you get a piece of that pie that comes through. So you want to make sure you've got that moving as quickly as possible. I mean, you look at some of the examples that Harold Daggett has talked about, and he's talked about easy pass being a bad thing.

Wow.

I mean, everybody loves easy pass. I mean, I don't want to sit in a toll for, you know, a toll line waiting to try and find change to throw into a machine or hand to a toll booth operator. Well, yeah, I mean, the total booth operators might have shifted their jobs and are now inside instead of being outside collecting car emissions. It makes the system a whole lot easier to manage. But I mean, this is the kind of automation that they look at that they don't like. And again, the fear is over automation eliminating jobs. And that's a serious issue that needs to be had between labor and management. And figure out how do we ensure that whatever automation and technology we bring on helps to upskill and creates new jobs? Because you look at what's happening, at least on the west coast, in other ports, you've seen job creation as a result of these technology and automation. So we've got to kind of, you know, go on a path forwards where both parties agree and can kind of come together and look to improve the entire system going forwards.

John, I'm with you, and I see this eye to eye with you. And we've talked about, gosh, thousands of times across shows since the beginning of time. Automation certainly has caused some job loss as we've gone through every single technology revolution. Right. But look at any study out there. It has created far more jobs and opportunities and wealth for so many different folks. And I think another call out that I want to make that, John shared, Billy Ray, that, that some folks may not be aware of. Right back to my lunch conversation last week. They both, both of these CSO's loved on the Georgia ports, right? And I'll tell you, I've toured down there. They run a tight ship, no pun intended. It's remarkable to see the speed and efficiency and what have you. But you know what? It wasn't always that way. You go back 50 years, you can just picture how things were. You know, there's a lot, they invested a lot of technology that was invested. And we can't, we can't stay at this stat, at this status quo for the next hundred years because to John's point, if you look at ports around the globe, things look a lot different than, than some american ports. There's a great opportunity we have here that actually I would, I would say just my opinion would not just protect the jobs we have, but add more to them. Right. But Billy Ray, your thoughts? We, John shared a lot of things there, including the need to protect the banana supply chain. Who would have thought bananas are the number one fruit? I learned that last week. Billy Ray, what you hear, what you want to share?

So, Scott, they had to change the consumer and the work environment has changed, right? And I saw this recently for listening to a, and I call it gen alpha, right? That's that generation at cohort between 2010 and 2025. Those individuals, they rely heavy on that technology, right? That digital media, that rapid movement, that rapid. So the companies at these ports, they have to move with the consumer. If they don't create that platform, that type of agility, then you know what? That, that delay we see now based on the strike, it becomes a part of the process. That delay happens if they don't move. If they don't move, right. They don't move their organization, their processes, and so everything will come to a halt.

Yeah, I love the start of your response there because, um, we call them the now generation because, uh, these folks are already, these college students, young workers. They're already making a big impact. So we did away with the next generation called now generation. We have some fascinating conversations in that series within a series. But to your point, Billy Ray, these folks expect to have technology within the organization. So when we think about recruiting the more workers, right, from different pools, we got to have the technology beyond the obvious reasons. So it is going to be fascinating, John, to keep our finger on the pulse and watch these negotiations continue over the next 90 days. And John, let me ask you this. I've never been, unlike you and Billy Ray, I've never been a part of any labor contract negotiation. After the tentative announcement, which was announced a couple days ago, when do they pick back up and start talking again on the longer solution? John.

Scott, I mean, that's a great question. I mean, they said in the announcement they're going to sit down, you know, as soon as possible. They didn't give a firm date on when that's going to happen. But, you know, hopefully this week they'll start picking up and having those conversations again, again, knowing how complicated these issues are. And again, it's not just automation. There are other issues on the table. They've got to talk about the container royalties, other benefits, and just other issues as well. They've got to start having those conversations now. Again, we can't get to another spot where we're a couple of days out from January 15 and we still don't have a contract. And there's uncertainty again as to whether or not they will go on strike again, which is a possibility. So companies need to continue to pay very close attention to what's going on with these negotiations.

And you use example in one of your earlier responses, 18 months, other negotiations I've taken, and I bet there was a whole bunch more active conversations as part of that process than what we've seen here. So, folks, we're going to stay tuned and let us know what you think. And by the way, hello. Leah Luton of Aiken, South Carolina. I might just be related. That's my mom. So, hey, great. Always great to see you, mom. Gino Pledger tuned in from north Alabama. Hey, Gino, let me know your take on what's going on here. We've covered a lot of ground here with John Gold from the NRFD, the one and only Billy Ray Taylor. All right. So let's shift gears. John, anything else before we shift gears to what's coming up at NRF, the big show in January? Any last word on what to expect, what we're, you know, when you said, it's interesting, Billy Ray, when John said that they expect to pick back on conversation soon, folks, we're in supply chain, John and Miller. Billy Ray knows this. We like to quantify everything. Right. That's too ambiguous. Right. We need a date. We need a location. We know who's going to be there. Right. But anyway, John, your final word on the La US MX tentative deal and the path forward again, I mean, we're.

We'Re all looking at recovery now. I think folks trying to plan through, obviously, hurricane Hillenous lean had even more of an impact on that. And, you know, it's kind of the double whammy, unfortunately, especially for folks in southeastern ports that are connected to this and those who are bringing in, you know, building supplies that need to get to the market, you know, quickly to help out with recovery. So I think we all recognize the impact on the supply chain that these incidents have. I mean, we can look back to what happened during the pandemic and, you know, what happened there with the supply chain. Unfortunately, whenever people think of a supply chain disruption, we have panic buying, which we saw last week. Folks ran out and started buying all the toilet paper they could again, even though the toilet paper is made domestically. But it incites that concern from folks. So again, we just need the parties back at the table and having those conversations because as you noted, my guys are already planning for next summer. So they're trying to figure out, know what's going to happen in January and how they plan accordingly. So it's important to pay attention to all these issues because there's always something happening in the supply chain. There's always some kind of disruption. It seems to have gotten much bigger and broader post pandemic. I mean, there was always something happening. I mean, you always have a weather related incident or just something that would cause disruption. But I think there's more attention now as what's happening. And there are some other big issues on the horizon folks need to pay attention to, especially on the kind of the geopolitical side and what the implications are, you know, for the supply chain moving forwards.

It's like we're wearing a disruption magnet over the last couple of years. Goodness gracious. We gotta, we gotta move on. By the way, folks, we'd be remiss if we didn't mention we are including in the chat not just the stories and the newsletters we talked about earlier, but NRF's final statement on the ILA USMX tentative deal. So y'all check that out and let us know your thoughts. Y'all feel free to send your final statements to us. All right, so Billy, Ray and John, let's move on to maybe a more fun part of our conversation here with John Gold with the National Retail Federation. Folks, what's on the mind of retail supply chain leaders everywhere? Well, NRF 2025 is coming up in January, aka Retail's big show. I think I've got a graphic here. Check this out. A game changer. That might be the theme this year. Who knows? So John, you're organizing some outstanding supply chain sessions as part of the overall programming. And I got to ask you, what are a couple of major themes that you expect to be talked about as part of those?

Yeah, so, I mean, I would thank my colleagues for helping put some of these sessions together, but obviously taking a look at the technology issues again, looking at AI and AI is where role in supply chain as ever evolving and how do we continue to improve upon that? Look at the issues of three pls within the supply chain and again, utilization and partnerships moving forwards. And then again, looking at just kind of the future of the supply chain. What's, what are folks looking at? How does the diversification continue to move forwards? Obviously we've got, you know, a major presidential election coming up in a couple of weeks and.

Right.

You know, a lot of talk there on potential impacts on the supply chain, especially as you look at the ongoing conversation about China and, you know, what do we do going forwards, whether it's tariffs or diversification or anything else, you know, there's a big push for folks to continue to move their supply chain operations outside of China, but where do you go? And understanding that it takes time to re establish a new supply chain, it's not something you can do overnight. It takes time to rebuild. And, you know, I think a lot of companies, whether it's retailers, manufacturers, or whoever, need to find incentives to help them do that. You can't just use kind of the stick approach. You got to have some carrots. So getting back on the playing field when it comes to, you know, free trade agreements, things like that, you know, we've got to get, get out there and help folks to not just diversify, but look to open up new markets as well. So we've got to continue that push.

What a great laundry list. I hope to be a fly on the wall and listen to the conversations. AI, three pls, future supply chain, China, tariffs, the election and the difference in policies creating lots of uncertainty. And just, you asked that rhetorical question, John. Folks moving things from China into other parts of the world. Where are folks going? All the cool kids seem to be going to Mexico because Mexico is just blowing up tons of opportunity. It's exciting to see. It really is. Billy Ray, that laundry list sounds like a bunch of important conversations not to be missed. But what do you see? All the business leaders, supply chain leaders, manufacturing leaders that you're working with and helping across your ecosystem. Billy Ray, what's a topic that emerges that comes to the top of the list?

Well, they're looking at future trends, right. What's, what's down the road as well as how do they continue to get their consumer trust? And that's one of the things. And they're looking at social commerce. Right. Those platforms that are going to replace their traditional search engines for product discovery. So they're looking at all those things combined so that they can see ahead are stay in step with the consumer. And so how do they create that competitive edge being what are the trends? How do we keep consumers trusting us and how do we reach the customer and meet them where they're at instead of.

Right.

So that, that's what I'm seeing now.

My favorite word to use there, Billy Ray, is trust. That is so important across so many different dimensions, different angles, and different parts of the ecosystem. That trust with consumers, that trust with your team members, that trust with your suppliers, you name it. Um, but excellent, excellent rundown there. All right. So, John Gold, I wish we had you for a couple more hours, but I know your, your days stay really, really busy these days. How can folks, so, so we dropped the link. NRF 2025 retail is big show. We got that link right there. We also included a link to the uM, final NRF statement on the port strike suspension. So y'all check that out. Beyond all that though, John Gold, how can folks connect with you in a national retail federation?

Sure. So obviously, you know, Nrf.com is a website. We got lots of great information up there on all the different things that we're working on. You know, my email address, goldjrf.com. also, you know, highly active on both Twitter and LinkedIn. So profiles are up there. So happy to connect with folks.

Love it. John. John Gold, vice president of supply chain and customs policy with the National Retail Federation. John, always a pleasure. And I look forward. Next time I head up there, we're getting some of that guacamole. Okay, my friend? Absolutely. Thanks so much, John. We'll see you soon.

Thank you guys. Appreciate it.

All right, John.

Oh, Billy Ray, I'll tell you, John is a pro. You know what I gotta tell myself, Billy Ray. I always get on my notepad, right as I prior to going any show because I like learning from all of our guests and I'm stuck with just sticky notes and it don't work as well. I forgot to grab my notebook. But I've got, by last count, 22 sticky notes based on what you and John were shared, folks. Let me know what you think, though. Let us know, uh, whether it's on the strike topic, uh, or the, the tentative, uh, deal, whether it's on, um, what inquiring minds across supply chain leaders, what they're thinking, what they're prioritizing. We welcome, welcome your feedback. If you don't catch us here live in the moment, feel free to shoot us a note on LinkedIn over on our website. You name it. We'd love to include that for future shows. Um, okay, Billy Ray, we got a lot more to get into here today. Yes, a lot more. Did you eat your wheaties this morning, Billy Ray?

I did. I did. I'm ready to go and had a good cup of coffee, so I'm ready to go.

All right. All right. So let's talk more manufacturing here today. Let's talk more manufacturing, starting with new data on the us manufacturing industry as reported by manufacturing dive. So the Institute for Supply Management's purchasing managers indexed and for September is in. Now, folks, we talk about this, this set of data all the time. We shorten it though, ism, PMI. So if you hear that, that's what we're talking about, right? And its data shows that manufacturing growth from August to September, well, it's flat. Now, the culprits primarily seem to be the lack of new orders and a rise in layoffs, unfortunately. But that shouldn't surprise many of you out there. We have the smartest audience, all of the land, because that's been the case for months now, really. In fact, when it comes to the industrial, manufacturing sector, companies have announced almost. I think that number is wrong. I think that should be 180,000 job cuts through August 2024. And that's an increase over 260% year over year. Man, but a grain of salt. We all know that these hiring shifts can be very cyclical. So we'll see what the months ahead leads, what the months ahead bring. Shifting gears over to a different set of data, Billy Ray, S P's global September PMI. Well, that had a similar take on manufacturing activity. However, s and P showed a little more contraction in industry growth. Both sets of data showed a worsening demand environment. Right. And both pointed to the us presidential election, just like John mentioned earlier, as being a big negative driver. And that doesn't surprise US either, with both major candidates having different plans and visions for the US manufacturing industry. And it's essentially a dead heat race. Well, all that's causing lots of uncertainty for business leaders as they try to make their bets. Not sure where to make them, but at least a little bit of good news here, Billy Ray, at least the interest rate cuts have begun, which will certainly help in the longer run. Most experts and analysts believe those bottom line results will start being felt in 2025 because that the interest rate cuts lower borrowing costs, which should help increase demand, especially as we get past this election. So, Billy Ray, kind of a mixture of things, good, bad and indifferent. Your thoughts on what we're seeing in the manufacturing industry here in the states?

Well, when I look at that and I just go, the PMI, right, that's the purchasing managers index.

Yep.

When a purchasing manager index reading goes below 50%, it's really driven by low demand and fewer orders.

Yep.

So when that's happening, what I'm seeing across industry now is layoffs. Even. I think Goodyear recently announced some layoffs. I'm seeing a lot of my friends that are executives and companies looking at, and they're looking at them as temporary. They're not looking at them as something that's sustainable, being they're expected an increase once the election is over. That's just what I'm hearing from them. But those, those disruptions, such as Helene and the port strikes, they further complicate the recovery. And so you blend all those together. I mean, they're, they're they're dealing with some issues that they believe that they're going to be able to overcome in short, short term. And so they know that they're going to face these challenges. They're both internal and external. So it's not just the external things that are hurting them. There are also some internal factors. And so within the new workforce. Right. And the new workforce today, people are not struggling with hiring people. They're struggling with retaining people. And so there's, there's that internal struggle that companies are facing today.

Yep. It's good stuff. The ray, and you touched on your last point there about the overall holistic talent management cycle. Now, I'm sure there's other parts, but the core parts. Hire, develop, retain. That's right. It's got to be cyclical. Not many folks want to come into a job in the first day of 2025 and be the exact same person on the first day of 2030. Right. They want to learn new things, take on new responsibilities, be developed professionally and personally and leadership wise. So great point there, Billy Ray. I want to go back, you know, getting the data right is really important here at supply chain now, and y'all should know me. So I apologize. That number was right. So when you look at the industrial, manufacturing sector, right, that component of the overall manufacturing industry, companies have announced almost 18,000 job cuts. Well, not 180. So I got 180,000. I got that wrong. 18,000 job cuts, which is still 18,000 too many. Right. Those are big life challenges for a lot of families there. But things, as we mentioned, oftentimes are cyclical. We get past the election, we get a couple more interest rates cut, we start answering a call for what the now generation wants, which is more technology in more parts of organization. We'll get things turned around and as t squared. And here comes Milton to complicate things. Talking about the famed economists, I believe Milton Friedman, back in the day, t squared. Love the reference. Okay, so, Billy Ray, we've got a couple of cool things we're going to wrap today's episode on that I'm excited about. And I want to start with, folks, this got to be on your radar every single year. And that is National Manufacturing Day, which takes place on the first Friday of October every single year. Great folks over at the manufacturing institute, big ambassadors for this program. So one of our co hosts, Billy Ray Taylor, that we've enjoyed collaborating with. Oh, let me, let me pause for a second. T squared wasn't talking about Milton Friedman, the economist. He was talking about Hurricane Milton my apologies, t squared. Oh, see, we can't, economics always throws me off. Billy Ray always throws me off. But I appreciate that clarification, t squared. Okay, back to Allison Giddens, one of our co hosts here at supply chain. Now, Billy Ray, as we both know, she's an incredible advocate and leader in the manufacturing industry. She's president for operations at Local, a local manufacturing company called Win Tech Inc. Which is a machine shop that specializes in custom aerospace parts. And if you're making parts for the aerospace industry, Billaray, we got to get that right. I can imagine. So Allison hosts student tours all the time. Helping with shining a light and creating awareness of the industry is critical. So in last week's tour at Wintech Inc. There on National Manufacturing Day, they had a lot of bright students in from Kennesaw State University and Chattahoochee Technical College. Now, Allison told me I got my rundown earlier. Billy Ray reached out and compared notes and got some feedback from Allison. She said tons of light bulbs are going off with this really sharp group as they were learning about the operation and about manufacturing. Somewhat different professionals do. Allison said that they've had a lot of interesting conversations with teachers and educators as well, all focused on how to engage students, not when they're out of school, but when they're still in school, in high school, maybe even middle school. And it can be tougher for small businesses who don't have the same resources for like, traditional internships and whatnot. So we got to get even more creative when it comes to awareness and engagement. But get this, Billy Ray, how about this? Love this message that one of the students left on the whiteboard. Happy manufacturing day. Let's get crunk, I said. Isaac Phillips. So, Isaac, wherever you may be, I love that enthusiasm for manufacturing. And folks, if you're listening, we actually had the picture itself that we stole from Alison that she shared across social. I love that. So, Billy Ray, comment on any of that? And in particular, I'd love to get your take on, you know, all the years you've spent in your career doing big things in the manufacturing industry. What are your thoughts on what kids and their parents need to know when it comes to big career opportunities in the manufacturing industry? Your thoughts?

Billy Ray, first thing, to go back to hearing you say let's get crunk. That was kind of funny to me, right? You can, you can see that picture I'm thinking. Yeah, so that was funny. Let me start there. But the second thing, what I would tell kids, and I'm gonna go back to myself and my son, who just started, and I told my son, first of all, know how to show up. Don't just assume that you're gonna have this big career. I mean, from the way you look, the way, how attentive you are, understand that you have a brand and bring your brand to the forefront first. And then at that point, once you're in the door, leverage those opportunities, seek out those mentors, and, like, supply chain. Now, tune in, because what I will tell you, getting in manufacturing is very complex. But one of the things I remind my own son is don't confuse naive with being dumb. Ah, see, naive is you don't know and you haven't been exposed. And so when I say, grasp a hold to it, what's dumb? If you don't go do your homework, if you don't go close those gaps. And when you start to do that, you show up, and then you've got to seat at the table. You've got those mentors. Continue to learn that learning cycle.

Right.

It's infinitive. You have to continue to be, Scott, you and I have to continue to be on our game.

That's right.

We're going to be relevant. And so that's the advice I would give a young person. One, show up. You own that. You own your brand. You are your brand CEO. And once you get in the door, be that continuous learner.

Yep. Love that, Billy Ray. I love that. And, folks, in just a few minutes, I'm going to share with y'all a great resource where you can find a whole bunch more tips on manufacturing leadership, organizational success, and more that Billy Ray Taylor has. Has contributed to industry. So stay tuned on that. So great message there from Billy Ray, and great message from Alison Giddens, folks. If you go back to the source post where I stole that graphic from and check that out, send Alison a message. Because ambassadors for industry, like Allison, like Billy Ray and many others, man, that is what protects the heartbeat of the manufacturing industry, and that is still people. People. So good on you, Allison. And good on you. As Isaac Phillips. Great to see you out in plants learning and being present, as Billy Ray was suggesting. Okay, going back to the manufacturer industry, Gina Pledger says, too much of type, and I'm with you. We need a couple hours set aside for the menu in the manufacturing industry, where it's going, where it's been. Uh, but Gina says, I would ask, is it really short term, meaning the manufacturing malaise we've talked about forever? Uh, Gina says manufacturing has been down for at least two years. Two years. Do the leaders really know what's on the other side? My intel is leaning toward that. They don't hope I am wrong. Do you know, excellent commentary by someone that's been in the manufacturing industry for quite some time. And it really, your comments come to a lot of the uncertainty that's taking place. To your question, do we really know what's on the other side? Well, once I would argue, Billy Ray, once we get past this election, that will give us some of our blind spot back and make it more visible so we can get to the rest of the equation. And I would just also add this, Billy Ray, I'll talk to a dear friend of mine that's based in the UK, and he's going to be making an appearance in a few weeks here on the bus. And he's done big things in industry. And one of the things he's going to be talking to, Billy Ray, is not the impact of the us presidential elections here in the States. He's going to speak to the challenges it poses and uncertainty that's best triggered globally. So I'm looking forward to Dave Food's perspective here, because, Billy Ray, we've got a. We, it can't just be about ourselves. This is a global economy. And I can't wait to learn perspective from other folks around the globe, huh?

Absolutely, Scott. The only way these, these organizations and these leaders are going to stay, Karen, is they have to follow the cycle. Plan. Do check, adjust. Plan. Do check, adjust. That's the only way they're going to stay relevant. And that's the cycle of continuous improvement.

It. That's right. PDCA. PDCA. Some say, some may swap out that last a as Billy Ray mentioned, adjust. Some folks say act means the same thing. Holistic. Holistic. And constantly making sure that you really are honest with yourself about the results you're getting the current state so you can find, because there's always room to improve. Always. Always. Okay, we're going to wrap on this. So, Billy Rayde, I'll tell you what, I enjoy our conversations here. You're on the road giving rock and roll keynotes to many companies and events all over the, all over the globe, from Iceland to California and all points in between. One of your mantras, though, when it comes to sharing leadership principles, proven principles, is answering this question. How we win. How we win. So if you would share a little bit about that mantra and if a couple minutes we got left and what you're going to be sharing in terms of your message with attendees at the upcoming AME conference here in Atlanta. That's coming up in just a few weeks. Your thoughts there, Billy Ray.

Right. How wind starts with extreme ownership, but how do you take that strategy? And most people say there's deploying strategy, but how do you connect that strategy to who owns what net strategy. So basically what we're going to be talking about, how do you build a connected strategy? How do you define winning, align winning, execute winning? How do you know what the score is at any given time? When you watch a football game, you have to know the score. That helps you adjust, that helps you act. So the book is a holistic model, how to build a connected business model. And that's what we're doing at the conference. We're going to show people how to build a connected business model as well as give the people a actual software beta so those that are attending will get this whole package.

Really? Yeah, man. Okay. So I'm glad I'm gonna be there. So I'm one of the cool kids that gets the whole package, as Billy Ray mentioned. And, folks, I've got even more good news. Billy Ray always brings good news, but we have got for veterans out there, right? We're proud to be partnering with Ame, the Association for Manufacturing Excellence, have been for years. And we've got free seats for a handful of veterans. I think they've got up to ten free seats for veterans that are interested in the manufacturing industry, whether they want to learn about it, whether they're already in it, and they want to gather some market intel or learn some leadership development knowledge like Billy Ray was sharing, you name it. But you got to take that first step and you got to reach out to me and let me know you're interested. We've spoken to a few folks. I hope they're able to show up because, you know, we look out for our veteran, our fellow veterans here at supply chain now. So, folks, it's coming up soon. Ame Atlanta, the annual conference, October 28 through the 31st. You'll find industry rock and roll, folks, rock and roll stars like Billy Ray Taylor and many others, and have those conversations, learn, grow, interact, network, take plant tours, you name it, and it all can be found right here. We got the link right there in a chat, you're one click away from doing it. Um, Billy Ray, you touched on the winning link, right? The book I've read and reread a couple different times. Folks, there's a lot of great business books out there. Some of them are really tough to read, right? But this I think is written at a level and it's got something for everybody. So check out the winning link where we've also dropped the link to Billy Ray's book, at least the Amazon link right there. That's a pretty powerful link right there. Check that out. You'll enjoy the read, I promise you. And you know, Billy Ray, I think we got through a whole episode without you sharing one of your, what I'll call Vera isms. Yes. Right. Because your mom makes every conversation that we're part of with all the wisdom you learned from Miss Vera. And I bet there's a, well, I know there's a few in this book as well, huh?

Yes, there is. And her anecdotes, one of the best leaders I've ever been around and I'm going to clean it up a little. But I had one this weekend. She was telling her grandbaby something and the grandbaby didn't want to listen. And she says a hard head makes a soften behind. And she says if you don't listen, it's going to come back to catch you. It's going to come back to haunt you. I'm telling you from experience. And so in business when those leaders aren't willing to listen, right. That hard head causes some, some organizations to fail. That's how I'm cleaning it up.

Love it. Love it, man. Always a pleasure to have you here with us. Billy Ray Taylor, enjoyed our show again here today. Really enjoyed your perspective, of course, John Gold with NRF. We touched on a little bit of the news, some developments, as well as some leadership principles here today and really had a great addition of the buzz. So Billy Ray Taylor, how can folks connect with you?

By the way, LinkedIn is my primary source. I respond back to all of my own LinkedIn emails or responses. So that's the best way. Now I'm also on Facebook, Instagram, Twitter, all of those things. But LinkedIn is my primary go to.

Love it. All right, so folks, I'm going to throw in a little freebie here. So for the first person that comments here in the chat, whether it's on here live or in the, you know, this thing lives and breeds across our social for infinity, hopefully till Internet breaks. Hope that never comes. But comment in the chat that you'd like to get a copy of the book. And as long as I can get it to, there's a couple places we had a problem shipping to, but as long as I can get it to you, I'm going to send you a copy of Billy Ray's book, the winning link. And I bet you'll enjoy it as much as I have. So comment there, let us know and then we'll take it offline. I'll make sure we, we know where to send it. So big thanks, Billy Ray Taylor, thanks for being here with us.

Thank you for having me. Always a great time. Great show.

Oh, I'm with you. I'm with you. Big thanks again to John Gold with NRF, folks, check out the big show coming up in January. Big thanks to everyone that showed up. We couldn't hit everybody's comment or question but really appreciate y'all taking time to stop in. Also, big thanks to Amanda, the supreme project manager behind the scenes helping to make things happen. As always, folks, here's your homework. Right here's your homework. Hopefully all the different shows we do, we offer so much wonderful wisdom from folks like Billy Ray and John and proven best practices for navigating this Vuca environment. Another one of my favorite acronyms here lately. But you've got to take one thing that they shared, share it with your team, put it into practice. It's all about deeds, not words. Taking action to change. You're not just your future, but you're now. That's what it's all about. So on behalf the whole team here at supply chain now, Scott Luton Challenge, you do good, give forward, be the change that's needed and we'll see you next time. Right back here at supply chain now. Thanks everybody.