¡Buenos días from Louse Point! This is the Rorshok Argentina Update from the 25th of September twenty twenty-five. A quick summary of what's going down in Argentina.

Let’s start with the major financial intervention from this week, which came after President Milei met with US President Donald Trump in New York. Following a week of market turmoil in Argentina, the US government announced it is in talks to provide a massive twenty-billion-dollar currency swap line to Milei’s government.

Scott Bessent, the US Treasury Secretary, said the aid is designed to be a bridge to the election, offering stability ahead of the crucial midterm vote on the 26th of October. He also mentioned that the US is prepared to buy Argentine government bonds. The news provided some much-needed relief to the country’s battered financial assets, causing bonds and stocks to rally.

Now, here’s the reason why US support was so desperately needed. Before the announcement, Argentina’s markets were in a free fall. The Central Bank was forced to intervene heavily, selling over one point one billion dollars in just three days to prop up the peso.

The national currency kept hitting the upper limit of its trading band, which surpassed 1,500 pesos to the dollar. In response, Luis Caputo, the Economy Minister, made a dramatic promise to sell down to the last dollar if necessary to prevent a currency collapse, blaming the run on a political attack by the opposition.

The market jitters were fueled by President Milei’s weakening political position. Last week, he suffered a triple blow in Congress as lawmakers from across the aisle joined forces to overturn three of his presidential vetoes.

The lower house rejected his moves to block funding for public universities and the country’s largest pediatric hospital. A day later, the Senate overwhelmingly voted down another veto on a bill that automates the distribution of special Treasury funds to the provinces. These legislative defeats highlight his lack of support in Congress, a major concern for investors just a month before the midterm elections.

Speaking of those elections, the government made a dramatic move to bring in cash and calm the markets. It temporarily eliminated all export taxes on grains, beef and poultry until the 31st of October, just five days after the vote. The goal was to incentivize farmers to sell their stock and flood the Central Bank with much-needed dollars.

The plan worked, perhaps better than expected. The day after the announcement, the agricultural sector registered a historic record of 4.2 billion dollars in exports in a single day. Critics, however, see it as hypocrisy that there are not enough funds to fund public universities or pediatric hospitals, but there is enough wiggle room to give up billions in revenue.

While agriculture remains a cornerstone of the economy, another sector is quickly rising to become the country’s main economic engine. The Vaca Muerta shale formation in Patagonia in the south is on track to overtake farming as the top source of foreign currency within the next few years.

Optimistic projections suggest that by twenty thirty, exports from Vaca Muerta could reach as high as thirty-seven billion dollars a year. That amount of cash would be a game-changer, potentially allowing Argentina to comfortably meet its foreign debt payments without the constant strain it faces today.

While Vaca Muerta offers a bright future, the present looks pretty bleak. Official figures released this week confirmed that the economy shrank by 0.1% in the second quarter of the year.

Adding to the gloom, a new report from the Universidad Torcuato Di Tella puts the probability of a formal recession hitting the country at a staggering 98%. The downturn is being driven by a slump in consumer spending, declining industrial activity, and high interest rates that are making it harder for businesses to get loans.

The economic slowdown is hitting some sectors particularly hard. Many small brokerage firms, which had bet on a financial boom following Milei’s election, are now reporting significant losses. With trading revenues plummeting and capital controls still in place, hopes for a market revival are fading fast.

The situation prompted the national securities regulator to issue a reminder that firms must disclose any losses exceeding 15% of their equity. This could lead to some much-needed consolidation in a sector that currently has more registered brokers than larger economies like Brazil or Mexico.

From the local economy to the global stage, President Milei traveled to New York to deliver his second address to the UN General Assembly. In his speech, he repeated his criticism of the UN, accusing it of bureaucratic overreach and imposing a supranational governance model on the world.

He called for the organization to return to its original mission of ensuring peace and took the opportunity to praise his political ally, Donald Trump. Milei also reiterated Argentina’s long-standing sovereignty claim over the Malvinas Islands.

Moving into a story you probably saw on the news or social media: the bodies of three young women who went missing on Friday the nineteen sixty-threeth were found buried at a house in Florencio Varela, in the southern suburbs of Buenos Aires. The victims were identified as twenty-year-olds Brenda del Castillo and Morena Verdi, and fifteen-year-old Lara Gutiérrez.

Police believe the women were lured into a trap and murdered by a transnational drug trafficking gang. Four people have been arrested in connection with the crime, which has sparked outrage and calls for protests from feminist organizations.

In other crime-related news, we have updates on a landmark case involving new technology. A court in the central Córdoba province has confirmed that a nineteen-year-old boy will stand trial for using artificial intelligence to create fake pornographic images of his former high school classmates.

He is accused of face-swapping the faces of sixteen female students onto adult content and sharing it on adult websites. He faces charges under Argentina’s Ley Olimpia, which recognizes digital gender-based violence, and could be sentenced to up to twenty years in prison if convicted.

Daily life for commuters in Buenos Aires was anything but calm this week. On Wednesday the 24th, train drivers staged a protest for better pay and working conditions.

La Fraternidad union instructed its members to operate all trains at a maximum speed of just thirty kilometers per hour for the entire day. The work-to-rule action caused significant delays across all major train lines, affecting hundreds of thousands of passengers. The government has since called for a mandatory conciliation process to try and resolve the dispute.

On a much brighter note for the arts, two Argentine films directed by women are receiving accolades at the prestigious San Sebastián Film Festival in Spain. Belén, the second film by director and actress Dolores Fonzi, is competing for the festival’s top prize, the Golden Shell. It’s based on the true story of a young woman from the northern Tucumán province who was wrongly imprisoned after suffering a miscarriage.

Also competing in the official selection is Las corrientes, the third feature from director Milagros Mumenthaler.

In some news for football fans, it appears that Lionel Messi will be staying in the United States for the foreseeable future. A source close to the matter revealed that the thirty-eight-year-old superstar has agreed to extend his contract with Inter Miami.

The new deal would keep him playing in Major League Soccer beyond the twenty twenty-six World Cup. This strongly suggests that the Argentine legend plans to finish his career in the US.

If you’re interested in trying out a new sport, perhaps running, here goes a recommendation: The Buenos Aires Herald published an article titled Running in Buenos Aires: a (track and) field guide. This piece details the best routes, major races, running groups and how to acquire necessary gear and medical certificates.

Check out the article with the link in the show notes!

Aaand that’s it for this week! Thank you for joining us!

The Argentina Ramble is out now! In this special episode, Mark Mullen, Rorshok’s founder, talks to Spanish-English translator and English Language instructor Valeria Carbone and Ph.D student in Psychology Manuela Rouger about Argentina. Check it out with the link in the show notes!

¡Nos vemos la próxima semana!