Hey there. Welcome back to the Fantasy Football Game Plan. He's Quentin. I'm Judy, and it's week 11. We're going to give you our favorite player props for this week. This week we're targeting injury situations and a little bit of uncertainty in teams. Drop your best bets in the comment and help us out and hit that subscribe button so you don't miss any of our episodes. Let's do a quick review of last week. How did we do last week?

Yeah, that's been too long there. 'cause it was

Hmm.

week of the season. We ended up going, I think, three and seven on the bets we gave out. Luckily we did hit some of our touchdowns, which kind of saved us h chan and the h Chan Gibbs. Parlay got through, but besides that, not a lot of, we did not have a good read on the rest of our player props and so looking to bounce back this week.

All right, let's bounce back. What are we gonna start with on this Grand Bou bounce back.

So we are gonna start with. Very exciting player. He just got traded at the trade deadline, but Rashi Shahi over 30 and a half receiving yards at minus one 10. this is more just a bet of Rashi Shahid with Clint Kubiak, and Kubiak went out and got him again from the Saints, but. With five healthy games. On those 2024 Saints, Shahid was going nuclear. He went for 70 yards and four of those games of the five he played healthy. And just two weeks ago, because the Saints played the Rams two weeks ago, he had five catches for 68 yards. I think we're just getting this 30 and a half line because he is new on the team, he's not really established. And we have JSN on the other side, also on top of that. Rash. Shaheed isn't just the type of player to get 30 yards typically, when he has a good game, he has a great game and he's a big time threat. I want to take another half unit on 50 yards at plus two 10. Whenever Shahid goes for 30, about 70% of the time he goes for 50. And then I want to do a quarter unit on 70 plus units at plus four 70. Which he does about half the time whenever he goes over this 30 and a half yard mark. I want those big plays. I want that. They only threw the ball 12 times. We're going to, we are set up for a shootout in la so I'm excited for just a piece of that game.

Yeah, I'm excited for the Seahawks and Rams battle to see if we do get the shootout that we're, we're all hoping for. If, you know, Stafford can throw his five touchdowns and then the. Hawks are looking for shahi to do well over 30 and a half yards. I didn't go digging and try to make my Cooper Cup revenge game, prop, so I stayed away from that. I really wanted to, if you, wanna know what that's all about, then go listen to the DFS episode. 'cause I kinda like the whole Cooper Cup revenge game, uh,, scenario.

a, uh. touchdown line

He might be,

You know,

yeah.

they want to draw up the play for him, but I dunno how much he has left up in the tank.

Yeah, that's true. Fair enough. Alright. What else do you have for us?

So next we are going Lamar Jackson, and we're gonna take his under for 32 and a half rushing yards, minus one 20 against the Cleveland Brown. to me, Jackson has just not looked the same

No.

back from that hamstring injury. He did rush a little bit more last week, but it's also against his Cleveland defense. He's banged up. He just missed practice on Wednesday due to knee soreness, and the last time he played Cleveland, he had 13 yards. Only one quarterback has gone above this line against a Cleveland defense, and so I'm willing to take the chances here with the under for Lamar.

Yeah, I don't think he's going to be rushing until he feels a hundred percent then hopefully that's gonna be in the playoffs right now. I'm sad that he's not rushing and he, he's not, you know, a hundred percent Lamar, but he's in there winning games and that's all they need to do right now is get a w and move on to the next week and be there and have him healthy win when the playoffs hit. I don't see him running in this game either. I don't.

other thing is. How much is Cleveland actually gonna push them? I don't think they're gonna need to pull out all the stops to beat the Browns.

No, I don't think so either. You know you've got running backs there handed off and let them do their job. So I have one. So far we've been, we've got the new guy and we've got Lamar who's been injured and hurting, and I think there's opportunity in the Cardinal San Francisco game with Marvin Harrison, Jr. Being ruled out with his emergency appendectomy. And then that team is already really. Beat up. There was talk about Trey Benson coming back, but it, it's he, that he hasn't been activated off, off of ir, so that's probably not going to happen at this point. This week he will be out another week, which leaves them completely beat up at running backs and then they are down to, you know, Michael Wilson. And that's where I'm coming in is Michael Wilson. Over four and a half receptions, which is a plus one 20 with. 25. I started with the Trey McBride line, which is, over seven and a half that's getting up there a little bit. So is Michael Wilson, but it was only a plus 1 0 8. So I went after a little bit bigger payout. In, in this last week, Wilson had seven targets and four catches, and that was with Marvin Harrison, Jr. In the game. Marvin Harrison, Jr. Had 12 targets in that game and they've, and. Trey McBride had 13 targets. So where are those 12 targets going to go? I also look at, looked at, uh,, Dortch, who is their next wide receiver in this game, but I think the three of 'em are all going to be seeing an increased workload.

Yeah, we know Burette is very consolidated on where he goes the ball like we saw last week, 12, 12 and 13. So one less player there. I like Mike Wilson. I think. It's a way to get a little bit different. He doesn't have the big name like Trey McBride, so it's

Yeah.

of sneak it. You could even take his alt line even up to like five and a half and see what the value is here.

You could do that. I don't mind parlaying it with Troy McBride, if you really think this game's gonna go a little sideways and they're going to be throwing that ball a lot, which is kind of what I think. I'm a little surprised this game's only a three point game for the 49 ERs. 49 ERs are favored by three, but since it's in, Arizona, that's kind of a six point. Swing, I think the 49 ERs could be, you know, pretty up, and the Cardinals are just trying to claw their way back.

Yeah,

I expect.

is a little banged up on their running game,

Yeah,

choice.

I think so too. I like targeting this high injury situation. Yeah, let's move on to touchdowns. Who's getting a touchdown?

I wanna go back to that Rams game. I feel like that is the place to go for your touchdown bets. I'm gonna go on the Ram side and take Kyron Williams plus one 15. And really, I just love this game environment. I think I want the home running back here in this game. And then the other thing that's kind of working in our favorite here is Devonte Adams Oblique injury. Because all of those goal line targets that are going to Devonta Adams, those quick little outs that Matthew Stafford has a lot of trust in Adams to go and get it. Those will probably become goal line rushes and Kyron has been the lead back whenever they're, it's still a competitive game.

Yeah, he has been. And I can see if Adams is out particularly then Puka is going to be highly watched and guarded and it, the targets will, Matthew Stafford will find someone else to. To get the ball to. So I like Kyron Williams. I can't believe it's a plus plus money here. So we're, we're starting out with Plus,

Yeah. And we don't have any risk of Matthew Stafford really doing a touch push. They've never done that, so I don't think they're pulling it out here.

no, I don't think he wants to start that now in his career. Who else is getting the touchdown? What's the next one? In our risk ladder here for touchdowns.

the next one is a plus 1 95, and that is gonna be Khalil Shaki. But with no kincade, Shaki should be the engine for this passing attack against Tampa Bay and they should have to keep up and score some points. Dawson Knox at plus three 20 is also very interesting to step into that role. We know that Allen likes to target the tight ends near the goal line, but I'm just taking Shaki with his yards after the catch. I don't really mind the snow and wind. Might be involved in the game because Shakira isn't really getting those deep targets and Alan has the arm to get it to him if he's close enough. I think it actually kind of helps him break a few tackles and maybe get, that touchdown that way.

I think so too. I think they're gonna have to get Shakira more involved in their games if they want to win more of their games. We've seen their past games struggle a lot this season, and I think getting into Shakira is where it all starts to change. So I like this touchdown. Let's go to a different game. What tight end is going to get a touchdown?

Yeah, I wish I could kind of just Frankenstein this, this, if I could choose like a minus one 15. I guess you can kind of do it if you bet all three, but I'm gonna choose Friar Muth to represent the Pittsburgh tight ends. At plus two 15, but against Cincinnati in his career for Rmu has been very productive. He's scored six touchdowns and nine games. John U and Darnell Washington are also interesting at plus two 20 and plus two 30, but all of them. Between plus two 15 and plus two 30 tells me there's so much uncertainty in this market of who it's actually gonna be with

Yeah.

them getting minutes. I just want to take fire mute at home. He typically performs a lot better at home and then just kind of shreds zone coverage.

It's kind of interesting that they are so closely, valued for their touchdown here, two 15 to two 30. That's a little bit surprising to me 'cause I feel like Friar youth has really been the tight end that's been favored in by, by Aaron Rogers. So that's a little surprising.

Yeah, absolutely. I think they have the best connection. So where are we going for our

The long shot. Yeah, the long shot. So I got a long shot, and that's Brian Robinson, Jr. At plus 500. I'm back on this Cardinals game again. I'm just envisioning a game where it gets outta hand and the 49 ERs are way up on the Cardinals. The Cardinals are passing. We already talked about that side of it. But now the 49 ERs have the opportunity, maybe, you know, maybe like the whole fourth quarter where they can give, McCaffrey a break and they're giving it to Brian Robinson Jr. And we know that he's a talented back. We all thought he was going to be a starting run, running back when the season started, and now he's, you know, the backup to McCaffrey. To help create, to help give him that rest. So I see this as a game script that sets up well to get him more caries and hopefully into the end zone. And I like it at a plus 500.

Yeah, it's a good trade off, especially if they have the opportunity to give Krish McCaffrey some much needed Ru

Yeah, it, you can get a parlay up there pretty good if you start correlating things like, on this game with

could

like this.

it down to maybe like a Brian Robinson second half touchdown and see

Uh,

you can get.

yeah, that would be even better.

Um, but I

What is, yeah, what is our parlay.

So our parlay is kind of continuing the long shot theme. I would not advise putting a full unit on this. I'm probably doing a quarter unit. But it is the Jamis Winston experience. Same game, parlay. And we finally have Winston back in the lineup for the Giants. So this consists of three legs. First we were taking, Jamis Winston over 34 attempts. Then we were taking Jamis Winston. Over zero and a half interception. So him to throw a pick. And then we were taking the Green Bay Defense touchdown plus four 50 as the main leg driving all this, uh, eight 50.

Has, has Jamis ever had a game where he didn't have an interception?

It doesn't feel like that. And that's kind of just his mo at this point. It's kind of even gotten worse since he's been coming off the bench and

Yeah.

starter. He's really, the past couple years, if he looks at his stats, the interception is pretty reliable. That alone is like a minus one 60, which I kinda like standard maybe to fuel this, parlay.

Yeah, definitely.

here is the Green Bay defense. Do they actually run it back in? But Winston has thrown 14 pick sixes in his career. That's about 15 of his total starts in the league. And we just talked about it being higher when he was coming off the bench. The attempts is thrown in there because it is heavily correlated with him throwing that interception. And if you wanted the true long shot of like you put a dollar on it, you could even take the alt line up to. 40 attempts because about 58% of the games that he throws a pick six in, he has 40 attempts in. He's just chucking it and they don't really have another plan in New York. So

Yeah.

two four, that's 2,400 if you want that.

Wow.

at the eight 50, um, and just take what we have

I.

it

feel like we've been getting a lot of quarterbacks over 40 attempts this year, more so than I remember in years past, past where they are just chucking it and trying to come back. I don't think you put Jamis Winston in this game to hand off the ball, so I, I kind like the plus 2,440 attempts and see what he can do. I'm just excited that I get to see him play instead of Russell Wilson.

Yeah, I think it'll be much more entertaining than Russell Wilson. And the only thing that was scaring me off of the plus 40 was that Green Bay tends to slow it down. So I was like, all right, we're just gonna get to 34.

Yes, green Bay does tend to do that. They make it a no fun game, and that's just crawling along. Let's see if Jamis Winston can change that up. All right. That's gonna do it. That's it for our week 11 player Props. Tell us your favorite play in the comments this week. Play smart. Have fun, and see you next time.