It's not because my ad sucks,
Speaker:it's because it's speaking
to saying the wrong thing
Speaker:to this person. At this time,
Speaker:I'm not speaking to this vast majority
of people in the way that they want to be
Speaker:spoken to.
Speaker:Hey, this episode is brought
to you by OMG Commerce.
Speaker:That's the agency that I get
the privilege of running.
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Speaker:Click the Let's Talk button and we'd love
to help you dominate with YouTube ads.
Speaker:Well, hello and welcome to another edition
of the E-Commerce Evolution podcast.
Speaker:I'm your host, Brett
Curry, CEO of OMG Commerce,
Speaker:and today we've got a return guest.
Speaker:This guy is lighting up
LinkedIn on the daily.
Speaker:You can hear him on all your favorite
podcasts if you're into marketing at all
Speaker:and you've ever tried to determine how
much should I be putting into performance
Speaker:versus brand and is any of this
real and how do I measure it,
Speaker:then this guy is a beacon
of light in our industry
Speaker:and so excited to have him back on
the podcast. But I've got the one,
Speaker:the only Preston Rutherford co-founder of
Speaker:Looking Good Today.
Preston, how's it going man?
Speaker:And thanks for coming back on the pod.
Speaker:Yeah, I mean, we were talking
about this a second ago,
Speaker:but I think my first go with you is
my first ever podcast appearance.
Speaker:So thank you for just getting me going.
Speaker:But now I'm excited to be here. This
would be a lot fun, that glowing intro.
Speaker:Playing. Yeah, yeah, yeah, you
bet. Playing a very small part in
Speaker:your podcast career there. But
yeah, I think it was the first,
Speaker:I was watching LinkedIn, I was like,
Hey, wait a minute, this guy's good.
Speaker:And it looks like maybe he's just
kind starting to post on LinkedIn.
Speaker:So I jumped on it like, Hey,
come on the pod. And you did.
Speaker:I love it.
Speaker:And the rest is history, man.
Speaker:But I love what you and
team built with Chub.
Speaker:I love how it's continued to succeed and
I want to talk about that a little bit
Speaker:in a minute because it's such
an important note to make.
Speaker:And then I think really the time is right.
Speaker:You've been talking about this for years.
Speaker:The time is right to be thinking
about brand building and performance
Speaker:marketing, sustainable, profitable growth.
Speaker:It's just all kind of lining up.
We had the COVID era rock and roll,
Speaker:crazy Hair on Fire growth where just
grow growth, spend, spend, spend.
Speaker:We'll figure out profits later to,
oh shoot, we got to make money.
Speaker:We're not making any money
now. Let's measure everything.
Speaker:And so I think we're coming to
this place where it's like, okay,
Speaker:let's look at this holistically.
And just so you know,
Speaker:I've always felt like marketing
has to drive some kind of actions.
Speaker:It's got to drive some.
Speaker:If we're advertising and people
do nothing with that advertising,
Speaker:what are we doing? In fact,
you'll appreciate this.
Speaker:My first little consultancy
right out of college,
Speaker:I was working with local businesses,
Speaker:my tagline was marketing that builds
your brand and your bottom line.
Speaker:Love that.
Speaker:I was trying to help the local car
dealership and local retail stores.
Speaker:It was super fun, but.
Speaker:Love.
Speaker:That.
Speaker:I love how you guys have done this
and that led to a nine figure exit
Speaker:with Chub and just your perspective
here is really, really valuable.
Speaker:So maybe talk a little bit about the
journey for those that dunno with
Speaker:Chubby, how you got to your
current philosophy on marketing,
Speaker:and then we'll talk about Chubby's success
right now because it's kind of crazy
Speaker:how well it's doing right now, but
tell us a little bit of the story.
Speaker:Sure, sure, sure. Yeah,
absolutely. So I'm a tiny,
Speaker:tiny part of the success.
So one of four co-founders
Speaker:and we started the business back in 2011.
Speaker:We were four or five years out of college,
Speaker:just didn't want to work for other
people more than anything and just we're
Speaker:looking for something to
start and stumbled upon
Speaker:the shorter, short, the whole
vibe of let's just be different.
Speaker:It was different from what was in Vogue
at the time from a men's app peril
Speaker:perspective where it was very stuffy
and Abercrombie and Fitch shirts off
Speaker:guys standing in front of the store,
spring you with cologne playing horrible.
Speaker:I dunno, German house music or whatever.
Speaker:And.
Speaker:You had to look a certain way, we're too
cool for you, you can't hang with us.
Speaker:And there's, thats the opposite
of what we think should exist.
Speaker:So that was like a foundational premise.
And then the shorts were just super,
Speaker:super long and we all kind grew up
either playing soccer or rugby or we were
Speaker:from the south and all of those things.
Speaker:You're used to sort of
shorts actual short.
Speaker:And then there was a sort of
aspirational look back to our dads
Speaker:on their spring breaks in college when
they were growing up and how awesome they
Speaker:look the mustaches and the
shorter and that whole thing.
Speaker:So all that kind of came together
and we're just like, well shoot,
Speaker:let's just try to, we don't
want to work for other people.
Speaker:It'd be fun to work together. Let's just
try to start something. So I was back.
Speaker:In 21. You guys helped.
Speaker:Were you writing that trend or do you
feel like you kind of propelled that
Speaker:trend? Because there was a time,
Speaker:I'm a kid of the nineties and so we were
with my basketball team in high school.
Speaker:We were coming off of all the old uniforms
from the seventies days were super
Speaker:short.
Speaker:Super short.
Speaker:Shockingly, almost
obscenely short. Exactly.
Speaker:And then it was the Fab five for
missions. Everybody's going baggy shorts.
Speaker:That was the rage. Totally. Now
definitely short, excuse me, the trend.
Speaker:Did you guys launch that trend back to
short or did you just ride the wave that
Speaker:was already there? What's
your perspective on that?
Speaker:I mean, dude, this is 2011,
so I'm obviously very biased,
Speaker:but when we came out with shorter shorts,
Speaker:it was absurdly different. Yeah.
Speaker:I think guys really propelled
that. I think you did. I think.
Speaker:So. Yes, I definitely think so.
Speaker:And it's one of those things that
takes 15 years to really kind of get
Speaker:going. It just takes a long time.
But no, we were starkly different,
Speaker:and I think that was one of the main
reasons why we were able to stand out
Speaker:because there was that latent
demand of people who were,
Speaker:it was like sometimes there were
shorter folks who had to cut the
Speaker:shorts that they had.
Speaker:They had to go to Savers or Goodwill
and they had to find older shorts.
Speaker:Or there were folks who generally,
Speaker:maybe they had bigger quads or something
like that and they wanted to show 'em
Speaker:off.
Speaker:Or you had folks who played
sports and just kind of wanted a
Speaker:better short that just kind of
fit with what they were used to.
Speaker:There were all these sorts of things
where there was latent demand,
Speaker:and so there was this niche of
people who were down with it,
Speaker:but broadly it was very
frowned upon and viewed as
Speaker:stupid and less masculine,
all of this kind of stuff.
Speaker:So we just tried to turn the tables
and did all of these things where from
Speaker:a brand and positioning perspective
made it seem completely,
Speaker:our goal at least was to
make it completely inarguable
that shorts were meant to
Speaker:be short, and that if you were
scared to show off your actual legs,
Speaker:maybe that was representative of a lack
of confidence or that you're hiding
Speaker:something or that what's in
those pockets of those shorts. So
Speaker:yeah, no, it was very rare at the time.
Speaker:It certainly wasn't a trend
that existed in a big way.
Speaker:Totally makes sense. So yeah, I'm going
to credit you guys with that for sure.
Speaker:So you say you don't want to work with
people, you want to work for yourselves,
Speaker:you want something that's not the stuffy
kind of will tell you how to be cool
Speaker:type of thing like Abercrombie
and Fitch and stuff like that.
Speaker:So you launched the brand
then pick us up from there.
Speaker:Sure, yeah.
Speaker:So I mean at the beginning it was like
we had no money and the first person that
Speaker:we went to work with to actually make
some shorts for us just took our money.
Speaker:So it wasn't a blazing
start I guess I would say.
Speaker:But we kind of funded the
early days with pre-sales.
Speaker:We were just trying to get emails,
Speaker:sign people up or we were doing
straight up in-person sales.
Speaker:We'd do events at bars or we
would sell shorts at the park
Speaker:very hand-to-hand combat sort of thing
that I think I highly recommend for
Speaker:anyone who's just starting a
brand sell stuff in person,
Speaker:but then started to get some early success
Speaker:and I think started to grow a little
bit, which was the early goal.
Speaker:And it was the time of Facebook ads
were just becoming a thing and you could
Speaker:spend a dollar get 10 out or
whatever the exorbitant number was at
Speaker:the time, same.
Speaker:Numbers.
Speaker:And you just start to feel
this godlike power that,
Speaker:I mean, you can't necessarily cure cancer,
Speaker:but you can sell shorts on the internet
and put a dollar in and get 10 out
Speaker:pretty.
Speaker:Print profit profits at will. Yeah,
Speaker:it was kind of like the very early
days of Google where you were literally
Speaker:getting five and Tencent clicks.
Speaker:It's like you could literally print money
and then those were such unique times
Speaker:that great take advantage of that.
It was never going to last forever.
Speaker:So that's kind of.
Speaker:Well didn't, that's the thing,
we didn't know that, right?
Speaker:I mean it's hard to know that because
you're like, why would this stop?
Speaker:No, I don't understand the macro dynamics.
Speaker:So we basically got obsessed with
that kind of thing, just like, oh,
Speaker:following the trend of what works,
what drives that 10 x ROAS or whatever.
Speaker:And so I think we were growing and
I think because we were just so new,
Speaker:we were doing the brand building thing,
Speaker:we just knew that was the way to
differentiate and we couldn't spend 30% of
Speaker:revenue on marketing,
Speaker:so we had to do crazy stuff that was free.
Speaker:So that did the brand building
stuff in the early days.
Speaker:But then as we started to get more of a
flow and we needed more consistency and
Speaker:predictability,
Speaker:that's when we just rotated into
just the pure demand capture.
Speaker:There was this latent demand
for fun apparel short kind of
Speaker:thing,
Speaker:and we were just capturing that so we
didn't feel the pain because we didn't
Speaker:need to create new demand for our brand,
Speaker:for our product until we needed to.
And then that was less fun and that was
Speaker:about halfway in. And so we hit a little
bit of a midlife crisis if you'll,
Speaker:but then that's kind of where we had to
rebuild the business from the ground up
Speaker:again, all the credit to the team, all
the credit to the other founders here.
Speaker:I'm just a tiny, tiny part. I just
talk about it on the internet,
Speaker:but I was generally the one
who was representative of
all of bad decision making
Speaker:and it was the other founders who
were more representative of like, no,
Speaker:let's build this thing for the
long term. Let's find balance.
Speaker:And so then we had to learn what
demand creation, demand capture,
Speaker:what that balance looks like, how to
measure it, how to think about it,
Speaker:how to allocate that capital. But
ultimately it resulted a great,
Speaker:you mentioned all I can share
is a nine figure acquisition,
Speaker:but now we're going on eight years
of top and bottom line growth.
Speaker:I'm not in the business anymore,
Speaker:but Rainer one of the four co-founders
and exceptional team, great guy,
Speaker:great team on an absolutely
crushing it. It's.
Speaker:Awesome. Yeah,
Speaker:it really speaks to what you guys
built in the early days and to
Speaker:see that sustained growth means
that you got a lot of it right?
Speaker:You got product right, you got team,
Speaker:you got the approach to brand
building and performance marketing.
Speaker:You got that mix. And so I want
to dive in here a little bit.
Speaker:One of the things you talk about a lot
online and that you and I have talked
Speaker:about one-to-one is had this
idea of the performance trap and
Speaker:brand erosion,
Speaker:which I know is kind of the trap you
guys fell into when you thought the 10 to
Speaker:one row as was going to go on
forever and ever, and then it did,
Speaker:and then you're like, oh shoot, what
do we do now? How to rebuild things,
Speaker:but talk about that a little bit.
Speaker:What is that performance
trap and brand erosion?
Speaker:How does a brand know they're in it?
Speaker:And then we'll talk about
how do you get out of it?
Speaker:Sure. Yeah. I mean I
think it's that feeling,
Speaker:you feel it in your gut
where you're just like, Hmm,
Speaker:this can't be right.
Speaker:This doesn't feel like this
is what leads to a long-term
Speaker:generational sort of thing.
Speaker:You kind of look back at
your actions and you're like,
Speaker:am I truly generating building
desirability for my brand
Speaker:kind of thing or am I just making all
of these withdrawals without making any
Speaker:deposits? If you want to use a
bank account metaphor analogy,
Speaker:but then it shows up in the data too.
Speaker:I mean people will cite
a variety of stats.
Speaker:My C is going, my customer
acquisition cost is going up,
Speaker:or my CPMs are going up,
or my reach is going down,
Speaker:cost per a thousand accounts reached
going down or contribution margins
Speaker:going down. I ran a sale this year,
Speaker:I ran the same sale last year and the
lift from the sale this year was like
Speaker:50% of what I got last year. So next
year I'm going to have to double the
Speaker:discount. Or the only way
I can scale spend on X, Y,
Speaker:Z channel is if there's a really strong
offer now and I can't just talk about my
Speaker:product, I've got to throw an offer on it.
Speaker:All of these sorts of things where you
just look at the business and you're
Speaker:like, man,
Speaker:do I feel like I'm in a more defensible
position or do I feel more reliant on
Speaker:the ad platforms?
Speaker:Am I getting as much of my revenue from
people searching for my brand name and
Speaker:coming to my site and buying as I am
from a click on a buy button on an ad?
Speaker:You start to realize that probably
the answer is no to that, right?
Speaker:That part of, let's call it,
Speaker:I don't want to call it organic
demand or unpaid demand,
Speaker:but just the purchase behaviors
that were driving the mix of that
Speaker:over time can start to
get a little bit more over
Speaker:indexed onto the Let's fight for clicks
and get the click kind of thing. You
Speaker:get into a place where
you're like, well, shoot,
Speaker:my ROAS is like whatever the number is,
Speaker:and I've been able to grow
it, but has my business grown.
Speaker:You start to see those disconnect between
these metrics that we use to evaluate
Speaker:how we spend our money
and the actual business.
Speaker:And you start to get into these perverse
incentive situations where you're like,
Speaker:okay,
Speaker:I've got to be at a marketing efficiency
ratio of a five or something like that.
Speaker:Great. And then I need to maximize
realize within that context. Great,
Speaker:and I need to get a blended five
on that. So you're like, okay,
Speaker:well I could just remove
some audience exclusions and
Speaker:that will help me get a
little bit of a higher,
Speaker:realize I could retarget
a little bit more.
Speaker:I could spend a little bit
more on brand key with,
Speaker:you can do all these things
where you're just like, well no,
Speaker:we need to capture that demand. We need
to make sure we're defending our brand.
Speaker:We need to make sure we're
doing X, y, z, blah, blah, blah.
Speaker:The meta algorithm will
handle it or whatever.
Speaker:And we can get into these slippery
slopes where it's like, huh,
Speaker:but maybe I'm just claiming credit for
a lot of transactions that would've
Speaker:already happened. So anyways, there's
this whole cycle where it's like, okay,
Speaker:well we're spending more to get less.
Speaker:I'm discounting more now.
Speaker:I'm more and more competing on
the level of features and price
Speaker:rather than just who I I'm as a brand.
Speaker:It ultimately manifests generally in
contribution dollars going down or
Speaker:contribution margin going down just like
the cash flowing through the business.
Speaker:Even if revenue's going up,
Speaker:the cash actually dropping
to cover your fixed costs,
Speaker:you're not looking as good as you
would generally like it to look.
Speaker:And if you trend that out two
years, three years, four years,
Speaker:it's no bueno kind of thing.
Speaker:You see where we're headed
in the wrong direction.
Speaker:Sometimes as ROAS climbs
or often as ROAS climbs,
Speaker:your overall contribution margin may
be going down and the incremental
Speaker:impact, incremental lift of your marketing
dollars often going down as well,
Speaker:meaning we're making ourselves feel good
by looking in the ad account and pat
Speaker:ourselves on the back
with great ROAS numbers,
Speaker:but ultimately we're not driving
new customers at an acceptable cost.
Speaker:We're not fueling we organic growth,
Speaker:we're not actually
driving the brand to grow.
Speaker:And that is absolutely no bueno.
Speaker:Two points of nuance on that super
quickly, two points of nuance on that.
Speaker:We were mentioning CAC
and customer acquisition.
Speaker:I got to hit my new customer count.
Speaker:So then one of the things that you do
kind of as a last ditch effort or it just
Speaker:continues and you don't stop it,
Speaker:but it's like bring them in with these
big promos, right? You're like, oh,
Speaker:I hit my new customer goal
crushed on new customers.
Speaker:And then you look back six months later
and you're like, wow, that cohort LTV is
Speaker:horrible and I'm predicting
some of my worst.
Speaker:Customers that I've ever had right there.
Speaker:Yeah. I'm predicting I'm requiring so
much revenue from that cohort to just
Speaker:float my business and it's not
manifesting. That's doom spiral land.
Speaker:You know what I mean? And so that's
one other thing where you're just like,
Speaker:oh wow, okay,
Speaker:I'm predicting an LTB to CAC and
now that's not a real number at
Speaker:all because of how I've driven so much
new customer acquisition through just buy
Speaker:now promo 15 minutes rather
than I freaking love this brand,
Speaker:I'm going to buy from them. Stepping
nuance number one where it's like, okay,
Speaker:it's not just about hitting your new
customer count goals, it matters,
Speaker:but it's like how we get them in.
Speaker:Number two is maybe more
of a subjective thing where
Speaker:I kind of think about it
as being the wacky, wavy,
Speaker:inflatable tube man kind of blow up
mascot at used car dealerships where it's
Speaker:That kind of being the typical or
even the sleazy used card sales person
Speaker:where it's just like, okay, we're
going to use all the tactics.
Speaker:That's the whole idea. You look at,
Speaker:if I'm just going to be putting out 10
million impressions of those 10 million
Speaker:impressions,
Speaker:how many of those impressions are with
creative that is like fricking buy right
Speaker:now. Here's a problem you
have. Here's my solution,
Speaker:here are the top features and here's
50% off if you buy right now versus
Speaker:I'm just going to make you laugh and it's
going to tie back to what I do and who
Speaker:I'm, but that builds the brand,
that builds the desirability,
Speaker:that preps the 95% that I know
we're going to talk about.
Speaker:You pick your head up as a founder,
as a marketer, as a whoever,
Speaker:and you're like, I don't like how
this mix has shifted. I don't really,
Speaker:is this how I'm presenting myself
to the world? You know what I mean?
Speaker:And that is one of those humbling
things where you're just like, oh crap.
Speaker:Regardless of what any metric says,
that just is not right. You know what I.
Speaker:Mean? If.
Speaker:All we are at the end of the day is a
feeling that gets someone to take an
Speaker:action to stop them from buying the
incumbent who's currently meeting their
Speaker:needs for what I'm trying to do, that's
the thing where you're just like,
Speaker:I think I got to change. So those
are two nuance on that front.
Speaker:Yeah, I love that. And
I'll share a quick story.
Speaker:When I was right out of college,
Speaker:I was doing some consulting with local
businesses and met this piano dealer.
Speaker:Great guy, loved him,
Speaker:but they found out that the only success
they were really having was these going
Speaker:out of business sales.
Speaker:And so they would sign up to
acquire this distressed piano
Speaker:dealer and then they would
just do a liquidation sale.
Speaker:And they got so addicted to their,
Speaker:we just got to go out
of business every month.
Speaker:They have these distressed
inventory sales every month,
Speaker:and that's legitimately what
they did. So they would start,
Speaker:we've got this distressed inventory
from this dealership in Illinois,
Speaker:it has to go today, and that's
all they could get to work.
Speaker:So it's like we're going out of business
every month. That's our strategy.
Speaker:And that's an extreme example,
but totally this discount spiral.
Speaker:That's what some D two C brands can
get into as well where it's like,
Speaker:I can only exist if I give these
deep discounts and dial up the
Speaker:urgency to 11, then I can make money
otherwise I can't. And it's like,
Speaker:I like this brand building where
you're still creating desire,
Speaker:still making people say, I want that.
Speaker:I want those shorts or I want that look,
Speaker:but it's not the same buy now limited
inventory going out of business type of
Speaker:thing. It's just a totally
different approach.
Speaker:Totally. Yeah. I mean we can talk
tactics and positioning all day,
Speaker:but the going out of sale thing and
only doing that over and over is just
Speaker:classic.
Speaker:Yeah,
Speaker:it's like the perfect picture
there of the trap we can get into.
Speaker:For.
Speaker:Sure. Everyone can imagine the sign.
Speaker:You can imagine what the ad
looks like on local tv, right?
Speaker:Because all seen it before.
Speaker:I kind of joked too. I was like, we need
to start running ads where we're like,
Speaker:we're still going out of business,
Speaker:it's just we're going out
of business again. So yeah,
Speaker:pretty funny. Today's episode
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Speaker:Well, let's talk about this shift
that you had where you talk about your
Speaker:95 5 rule,
Speaker:and I think part of the point that you've
been making and I've been making for
Speaker:years is a lot of our businesses
have succeeded off of just capturing
Speaker:existing demand. Not a bad thing.
Speaker:We got to have demand capture
and demand generation.
Speaker:You got to have those balanced
and the right mix and whatnot.
Speaker:But talk about the 95
5 rule. What is that?
Speaker:How do you use that to
approach healthy growth?
Speaker:Yeah, and this is not,
I wish it were mine.
Speaker:I think it comes from
the Berg Bass Institute,
Speaker:which I would definitely
look them up and John
Speaker:and Byron Sharp and the
book, how Brands, all This
Speaker:availability gets into
some marketingy stuff,
Speaker:which kind of makes me
gloss over personally,
Speaker:which is why I try to make this
stuff a little bit more fun.
Speaker:But the general idea is, and I didn't
know about this until more recently,
Speaker:so I felt it felt like a jumble of
pain and anxiety in my soul when I was
Speaker:actually running the media myself
and in the trenches operating.
Speaker:But just the general idea that
Speaker:95% of our audience at any
given time is not actively
Speaker:shopping for my category.
Speaker:So what there is two things. One,
Speaker:if I'm spending 95 or a hundred
percent of my marketing dollars where
Speaker:the goal or the outcome of
success is I convince you to
Speaker:purchase, there's this massive mismatch,
Speaker:and this is how I think we were
for a long time at Chevy's,
Speaker:we were spending 95% of our
dollars going to demand capture,
Speaker:rational appeal product offer urgency.
I'm going to get you right now.
Speaker:And a better ad is just an
ad that is more convincing,
Speaker:but we were only hitting that five ish
percent of people, the vast minority,
Speaker:whether it's 95, 5 or 85, whatever
the number is, there's that.
Speaker:And then the other idea,
Speaker:it's simply being the creative
Speaker:that crushes it for the 5% just
goes in one year and out the
Speaker:other for the 95%, right?
Not actively shopping.
Speaker:So it's kind of like if you've heard
of the term reticular activation or
Speaker:reticular.
Speaker:Love, it's like.
Speaker:Okay, I want a red Ferrari,
Speaker:so then I see red Ferraris
Freaking everywhere kind of thing.
Speaker:Where if it's not that, you just don't
see it, right? You don't even see it.
Speaker:So I'm just like if I'm
only evaluating my creative,
Speaker:my media, whatever it is by
how I'm capturing that demand,
Speaker:my job with the 95 is to prep them,
generate a memory, generate a feeling,
Speaker:get someone to say, I freaking
love that ad when X, Y,
Speaker:Z happens with that brand.
Speaker:One of my favorite ads of all time,
that just maybe hit me at a great time.
Speaker:I don't know,
Speaker:it was the classic Dollar Shave Club
ad that YouTube ad was just so epic,
Speaker:funny, so memorable. You had to
watch it, could talk about it.
Speaker:It was easy to refer to
watch it multiple times.
Speaker:And I'd like to think CHS made a bunch
of those as well, and I think we did.
Speaker:But from another brand
and just going way back,
Speaker:that was one that just true classic true
classics. First big video ad I think
Speaker:was fricking awesome. The guys sitting
in the office love their product boss.
Speaker:It's just such a memorable scene where
just that captures what we're all about.
Speaker:And I remember it and
there's countless examples,
Speaker:but I'm just thinking about
more modern brands and that
Speaker:probably did a really good,
Speaker:both of those probably did a really
good job at capturing demand, right?
Speaker:You're like, that's freaking awesome
because these are unicorn basic creative,
Speaker:but it did a much better job at just
prepping all of these people who are,
Speaker:I don't need a razor subscription
today kind of thing, but,
Speaker:or I don't need a bunch of t-shirts
today because I just bought some crappy
Speaker:Hanes at Macy's or whatever.
But I will when my wife says,
Speaker:you look ugly, and I'm going to think.
Speaker:So I think those are the things
where if it was just like 20% off
Speaker:product shot, white
background, buy now, buy now,
Speaker:that'd be total wasted money. I think
that's the kind of general idea was that
Speaker:totally floored me where
it was like, oh my gosh,
Speaker:it's not because my ad sucks,
Speaker:it's because it's speaking to
the wrong saying the wrong thing
Speaker:to this person at this time,
Speaker:I'm not speaking to this vast majority
of people in the way that they want to be
Speaker:spoken to. My job there is to
prep to drive that emotion,
Speaker:whereas with the 5% or whatever
the number is, rational appeal,
Speaker:be as efficient as possible. You've to
your point, you got to balance that.
Speaker:We call it brand and
monetization, build that brand,
Speaker:build that mental
availability, build whatever,
Speaker:but then you got to clear
that funnel the best of them.
Speaker:And many of us are good at that, right?
Speaker:The thing we're not doing is filling
the funnel or building the desirability,
Speaker:but it's not,
Speaker:the whole idea here is just to add
balance because many modern brands,
Speaker:they've gotten out of
balance and it makes sense,
Speaker:right? Because the data that we now
have access to makes us feel like we're
Speaker:media gods and that that's all
there is and that's capital T
Speaker:truth.
Speaker:But I think everyone kind of learns
when you start to feel this and everyone
Speaker:feels this and you earn this problem,
Speaker:this means you've gotten to this place
and you've stayed in business long enough
Speaker:to have
Speaker:is the ceiling for my brand or why am I
spending more to get all of these sorts
Speaker:of things? So you earn this problem,
it's a great problem to have,
Speaker:but it's just like a classic what got
us here won't get us there sort of
Speaker:situation. And it's like, okay, reset.
Speaker:What does balance look like for us now?
Speaker:How do we get to that
next stage of growth?
Speaker:And I would love to hear
your perspective on this.
Speaker:I've got a couple thoughts myself,
Speaker:but how do we find that
right mix of demand
Speaker:capture and demand generation?
Speaker:I do agree with you that most modern
brands are better at the demand capture
Speaker:piece, whether that's through met Google
or likely a combination of the two.
Speaker:But how do we find that right mix of
demand generation, demand capture?
Speaker:How do you view that?
Speaker:Totally. I mean I think what we learned
for the Chu's example, for instance.
Speaker:Would say.
Speaker:We're at 95 5 in favor of performance,
right? 5% was just the slush fund,
Speaker:you know what I mean?
Speaker:That just would get cut if you miss
a number on a month kind of thing.
Speaker:And I was like, okay, great. Nice to
have. I don't have any metrics against it,
Speaker:blah, blah, blah. And then I think
Speaker:where we evolved over time after
midlife crisis, let's say two,
Speaker:three years after that, and
again, buckets are tough.
Speaker:So to say this is brand and
this is DR and blah, blah, blah.
Speaker:It's like a channel tactic, creative
kind of thing. What's the job to be done?
Speaker:So we can have that conversation,
but broadly, just to give numbers,
Speaker:it got close-ish to that 60
40, right? The classic brand,
Speaker:60% to brand, 40% to activation.
Speaker:And it's not just on the paid side
too, right? It's like we've got email.
Speaker:Email is a freaking awesome way
to capture demand workforce,
Speaker:and I'm not paying that much for
what we did a lot and SMS too.
Speaker:So what we did a lot of was like,
Speaker:let's also view that as our demand
capture engine as well. And not
Speaker:only use paid for bottom funnel
demand capture because that can just,
Speaker:and it's a math problem,
Speaker:but what is the cheapest
way to get you to exit my
Speaker:funnel is kind of part of the way
to think about it. But yeah, man.
Speaker:And that freaks people out,
right? No one is at 50 50,
Speaker:no one's even at 40% to brand. No, I
mean maybe if you're Clorox or whatever,
Speaker:but if we're talking modern
brands that freaks people out,
Speaker:they think lack of accountability,
lack of measurement,
Speaker:they think lighting money on fire.
Speaker:So the easier answer and what I
think is a productive answer is just
Speaker:more To brand building more to demand.
Speaker:You're so far from having
a conversation, we're like,
Speaker:is this too much brand building?
Most of us are sub 10%.
Speaker:So if it's 10, get to 11.
If it's 11, get to 12%.
Speaker:Find a way to inch that up
and just test maniacally.
Speaker:And you can talk about what
we're testing and how we measure.
Speaker:But I think one of the big things is
Speaker:there's this humbling
reality that for many brands,
Speaker:if you just take the 10%
least efficient spend on dr,
Speaker:well first of all,
Speaker:you got to do those tests to find
what the 10% least efficient is.
Speaker:Most brands are just like, no, this
is my bread and butter. It works.
Speaker:And if you ask them, how well does it
work? If you were to cut spend 10%,
Speaker:what would happen if you were
to pulse spend up 30% in a week?
Speaker:What would happen? Would you see 30%
more growth? No, I've not done that.
Speaker:We can't do those tests. No. Or you
explain it away in a variety of different,
Speaker:so I think the first part there is let's
get to a little bit more precision on
Speaker:the level of incrementality.
Speaker:If we're spending 95% on performance
and the thing like the bread and butter,
Speaker:like our top spending ad sets, let's
pressure test the hell out of that first.
Speaker:And that kind of opens up the conversation
because the whole reason why there's
Speaker:a debate about the split of brand and
performance is because a fear that you'll
Speaker:waste money if you put it towards brand.
Speaker:But the reality is that
most brands not all,
Speaker:are already wasting way more money,
Speaker:not pressure testing their
existing performance spend.
Speaker:They don't have a testing framework.
They're testing, and I love house.
Speaker:I think they're the coolest.
Speaker:I love measured all
incrementality testing is amazing.
Speaker:However, what I would encourage, and
I'm sure they encourage the same,
Speaker:is let's test some of our
bigger closer held assumptions
Speaker:rather than these little ticky tack
micro optimizations on the margin that
Speaker:you're like, oh, was trying nothing.
Speaker:Is trying a view content
versus an add to cart,
Speaker:is that going to, sure, maybe
there's something there,
Speaker:but what about my bread
and butter kind of thing?
Speaker:These are the things that I encourage
us to get a better feel for the
Speaker:incrementality of because
that's more fundamental.
Speaker:And that's where we could basically say,
Speaker:if I'm spending a hundred
million bucks a year on X, Y, z,
Speaker:I can free up $15 million because
it's really not doing anything for me.
Speaker:Or the marginal contribution dollar
generation on that 15 million is
Speaker:so low that either I could not spend it
Speaker:or I could just put it to
demand gen, but nothing,
Speaker:there would be no downside to that in
my business. I think that's kind of step
Speaker:one in a lot of these
situations we're just like,
Speaker:let's get a little bit of humility
around where all of the money's going to
Speaker:acknowledge that we're probably
wasting quite a bit of money there.
Speaker:So then that takes the conversation
away from the fear being wasting money.
Speaker:And then it can be a conversation
around different things.
Speaker:How are we going to build brand? How are
we going to measure it? Yes, I agree.
Speaker:Having more demand makes sense. So
then what are we going to do about it?
Speaker:But it's like let's make it as
inarguable as possible and less of this,
Speaker:I know I'm not wasting money on
performance. I'm running a massive,
Speaker:I'm taking a massive flyer, a massive
risk of wasting money on brand.
Speaker:That's a fundamentally flawed
premise that I think we need to get
Speaker:alignment on first before we then talk
about what the ideal split should be.
Speaker:So it's kind of like those
two things, it should be more,
Speaker:and then we're already wasting way
more money on our bottom funnel demand
Speaker:capture kind of stuff.
Speaker:So let's acknowledge those things and
then I think we can have productive
Speaker:conversations going forward.
Speaker:Yeah, it is really a great point.
And I think that first piece,
Speaker:we've got to key in on whatever
you're doing now to build your
Speaker:brand to drive demand rather
than just to capture it.
Speaker:You got to start testing
doing more of it. And yes,
Speaker:we would love to get to a point with
our marketing where we've got 0% waste,
Speaker:probably never going to happen. Nope.
And it's certainly not happening now,
Speaker:even if you think you're measuring all
of your marketing the way that you should
Speaker:be. And so I really do credit
house, I'm glad you brought them up.
Speaker:I'm a big YouTube guy,
Speaker:and so they've done a lot for us where
this huge YouTube mentality test and
Speaker:showed that man, you look at
YouTube performance and platform,
Speaker:the actual incremental impact is probably
almost three and a half times that.
Speaker:And so really showing, hey,
the way you're measuring it,
Speaker:what you should be thinking about
is this driving a creative growth or
Speaker:incremental growth or growth
I wouldn't have already had.
Speaker:And there there's some challenges there,
but I love the way you frame that.
Speaker:And I would be curious,
Speaker:how do you look at maybe some of
those initial tests or initial looks
Speaker:at how do we understand how
incremental this activity is?
Speaker:Because there are some tools out there,
Speaker:some of them are really quite expensive
and house is probably in that bucket for
Speaker:a lot of brands. How do you start to test
incrementality? What did you guys do?
Speaker:What do you recommend that people.
Speaker:Do? Great question. And the thing
about the YouTube findings with House,
Speaker:what we're seeing with Marathon,
Speaker:which is just effectively just trying
to measure the longer term stuff,
Speaker:is that it's even more pronounced.
Speaker:So I think houses helpers understand
the short-term impact of YouTube and a
Speaker:variety of tactics on
YouTube, which is strong,
Speaker:stronger than chosen platform.
Speaker:But then the longer term impact we're
also seeing is also pretty massive.
Speaker:So it's like there's generally
people are sleeping on YouTube,
Speaker:I guess is my point, both from the
short and the long-term perspective.
Speaker:And it backs out to a rational
first principles perspective.
Speaker:You're at the end of the day,
Speaker:seconds of focused
attention is the thing that,
Speaker:and so that's why TV has
been a thing for so long.
Speaker:Like the switching costs.
Speaker:Really odd, built some of the best,
Speaker:the most iconic brands were often built
on tv. YouTube is our version of tv.
Speaker:Exactly. Right. And with YouTube,
Speaker:I dunno what it's like 50%
of impressions are on a tv,
Speaker:I don't dunno the exact
number, but I think it's.
Speaker:Between 50, 60%. Yeah,
it's growing, growing.
Speaker:So I don't know where else you get
those seconds of focused attention
Speaker:as cleanly and efficiently
and effectively as on YouTube.
Speaker:So anyways, that's one note
that I want to mention,
Speaker:but in terms of how do we start to
think about incrementality testing?
Speaker:So there's the poor person A,
Speaker:let's call it the duct
tape solution thing.
Speaker:I was going to say poor man solution,
but let's call it bubblegum duct tape.
Speaker:And then there's like, let's do it, right?
Speaker:But then broadly philosophy,
philosophy on measurement,
Speaker:and obviously I'm biased because I
started the measurement software company,
Speaker:but this is why,
Speaker:it's because I think brands
under invest in measurement,
Speaker:if we're going to spend in aggregate,
let's call it, I dunno what the number is,
Speaker:1% of our marketing
budgets on measurement,
Speaker:you just say it like that rather than
thinking about it as a fixed cost and I've
Speaker:got a broad software budget.
And then you're like, oh, okay,
Speaker:is that a good no, you think about
it, percentage of marketing spend,
Speaker:do I think I can get more than a
1% improvement in the results? From
Speaker:my experience? You're
wasting way more than that,
Speaker:not knowing some of these answers.
Totally. So I highly recommend, yes,
Speaker:use all platform tools, but
then have your MTA tool,
Speaker:have your incrementality
tool, have your MM tool,
Speaker:and then while we're building marathon,
Speaker:your long-term have precise
performance brand stuff too,
Speaker:which was a big missing piece is
why we're trying to take it invest,
Speaker:don't short shrift the
measurement stuff. And even,
Speaker:I know you were on the Marketing
Operators podcast recently,
Speaker:if you think back on one of their older
episodes was when times were maybe a
Speaker:little bit tougher and they were talking
about what do we cut and what do we not
Speaker:cut? And I think Cody from Ridge made
a good point where he was just like,
Speaker:thing you do not cut is marketing
software. You just don't cut that, right?
Speaker:Because that's marketing
measurement software, sorry,
Speaker:because that's the north
star. If you're flying blind,
Speaker:our marketing spend is our
biggest cost in this business.
Speaker:So if it's not guided by anything
that's really, really bad,
Speaker:you can get really upside
down on your economics.
Speaker:So it's like a broad philosophical thing.
Speaker:It's like whatever you're investing in
measurement software now invest more and
Speaker:then obviously use it, prioritize
use of it. You can have
Speaker:an account with name your tool,
and if you don't spend time on it,
Speaker:you're going to waste money. So
essential something like how,
Speaker:if you're wanting to
just try some tests now,
Speaker:first it's a mindset shift outside of
I need to use measurement software.
Speaker:And that's really important. Or
measurement tools, let's call it.
Speaker:If you're not going to, regardless
of how you're going to test,
Speaker:you need to commit to, this is not
going to change my business tonight.
Speaker:This is an evolution in how we operate.
Speaker:So let's think about what each test
for the next 12 months looks like.
Speaker:Let's plan it out and let's commit to it
and let's allocate enough budget to it.
Speaker:And let's just know that
it's more about information
Speaker:gathering,
Speaker:like neutral information gathering
than test if that's a failure or
Speaker:not. And that's a different way to
approach it. So that being number one, but
Speaker:I would start with some
of our core things.
Speaker:If you think about an ad set
where you spend your most dollars,
Speaker:let's pressure test that. Let's cut
that 30%, cut that 40% for a week,
Speaker:see what happens.
Speaker:Post it up hundred
percent geos if you can,
Speaker:and measure those geos if
you're set up to do that.
Speaker:Yes. So then we can talk about
that. So the pulse up and down,
Speaker:just do that to everything
and cycle through that.
Speaker:I mean starting with the
specific strategies that
you're spending the most on at
Speaker:any given time.
Speaker:Because the other thing
is the result from a may
Speaker:test doesn't necessarily apply.
Speaker:Next May might not even apply to December.
Speaker:These are moment in time tests
kind of thing, which is fine.
Speaker:That doesn't make it bad.
Speaker:It's just like we tried that two
years ago and it didn't work,
Speaker:so we're not going to try it ever again.
Speaker:We don't want that stuff to
happen because things change.
Speaker:Economics change auctions
change, ad products change,
Speaker:our brand changes, our creative
changes, but just cycle through,
Speaker:if I'm going to test and just work down
from the things that I'm spending the
Speaker:most on, pulse up, pulse down is a great
way to do it. True point on holdouts.
Speaker:Holdouts are great.
Speaker:We've built the long-term brand
version of it at Marathon House,
Speaker:measured name your tool.
They've got amazing tools.
Speaker:Some people run them
themselves and that's okay,
Speaker:but I caution because you can do it wrong.
Speaker:And then if you don't understand the level
of statist complic significance or if
Speaker:you don't, all of these, it's,
it's a statistical exploration.
Speaker:It's less like I tested Texas
and Texas grew faster than rest
Speaker:of country. It's like, no,
Speaker:Because Texas behaves different from
rest of country for a of reasons.
Speaker:It's got a different seasonality curve.
Speaker:You went into that month
with different numbers,
Speaker:and so it's like you can very easily
Speaker:be steered in the wrong way. And
I've made this mistake personally,
Speaker:I would just like, let's just
Texas, California, New York,
Speaker:let's just do it there.
Boom. That's our test.
Speaker:I'd say.
Speaker:I dunno. I dunno if that's better
than nothing, to be honest.
Speaker:To the extent you can get
down to a DMA level And do
Speaker:it in that way or even a zip level, I
think that's better. But regardless,
Speaker:you got to spend more and you got to
run it for longer generally. I mean,
Speaker:I think people want
answers today, tomorrow,
Speaker:and you want to spend
as little as possible.
Speaker:And that's why I think these tools are
clear on how confident are we in these
Speaker:solutions or what is the variability of
potential outcomes Here I'm showing you
Speaker:some number, but that's not
the number. That's not as,
Speaker:that's not the specific,
Speaker:there's a range of outcomes and I
would always just caution double
Speaker:click on what that number is, what the
range of outcomes is, what the error,
Speaker:are you happy with this outcome? Are we
happy with this outcome kind of thing.
Speaker:It could be something like that,
especially if we cut the test off earlier,
Speaker:whatever. So the way you set this up,
Speaker:the way you run the test,
Speaker:just counter the short-termism that
we as humans are fully laden with
Speaker:and know that it's just a systematic
thing. You got to give it enough time,
Speaker:you got to run it
correctly. But the pulse up,
Speaker:pulse down and just understand, okay,
Speaker:I added a marginal 20%, what did I get?
Speaker:And do that over and over and over and
over because you're always going to have
Speaker:variables.
Speaker:You're going to have a good product launch
on the next week and you're going to
Speaker:have a bad product launch on next week.
Speaker:Totally.
Speaker:Email toss. So that's why you got
to do it multiple times as well.
Speaker:It's not just a one and
done thing. It's broadly,
Speaker:I'm committed to learning
this set of things this year.
Speaker:I'm not going to boil the ocean. Because
you look back and you're just like,
Speaker:even if you think about running
a test that maybe is a little bit
Speaker:longer, you're like, oh my
God, that's an eternity.
Speaker:But then it's like it takes you
10 to 15 years to get to any
Speaker:real material scale and profit
generation anyway. So you're like,
Speaker:you're not going to spend a month testing
what could be something that changes
Speaker:your changes the way you spend
30% of your marketing. Again,
Speaker:I would've felt this exact thing
and I was the one who was like,
Speaker:no, we can't test that stuff. Just we
got to go. We got to go. We got to go.
Speaker:We got to go. So I'm the guilty guy
here. So I've felt all of these things,
Speaker:but those are just some thoughts
as it relates to how to do tests.
Speaker:Yeah, man, it's so valuable
and so much to unpack there.
Speaker:I want to talk a little bit
about your measurement stack,
Speaker:and then I want to really dive into
what marathon data is measuring,
Speaker:how that fits into the overall stack.
Speaker:But I'll give a quick analogy
here that I think will help.
Speaker:And you talk about how running one test
is silly. You had to run multiple tests.
Speaker:So there's the heart issues in my
family, at least with a few people,
Speaker:and it's like I'm diving
into some of this.
Speaker:And so you can measure your
resting heart rate. In my heart,
Speaker:resting your heart is really good.
Speaker:You can then measure heart
variability and how that speaks to the
Speaker:health of your heart.
Speaker:You can also then do lipid panels
and see what's my cholesterol,
Speaker:but not just cholesterol,
Speaker:but there's 20 ways to measure
cholesterol. And then it's like, well,
Speaker:I need to measure that
probably three or four,
Speaker:five times throughout the
year because you measure once,
Speaker:it could be based on some other
factors. And so then you're like, well,
Speaker:maybe I need to do a calcium
check and all of these things,
Speaker:but if you want to say,
I want be healthier,
Speaker:or I want to build for the
longterm with my health,
Speaker:you're going to have to
measure all of those things,
Speaker:understand what they're measuring,
understanding then based on the reading,
Speaker:what do you do with that? And
then measure on an ongoing basis,
Speaker:which kind of feels a little bit
overwhelming, but it's just the way it is.
Speaker:And I feel like it's the
same with marketing. We can't
run one test and be like,
Speaker:great, we know what to do
forever now with our marketing,
Speaker:or this is the salvation for our
brand. We have MTA now multi,
Speaker:multi touch attribution. Everything
is solved. It's never the case, right?
Speaker:It's like we've got to stack these things.
Speaker:We have to understand what they're
measuring, what that's telling us,
Speaker:what we expect, and then what do we
do with it? And so talk about that.
Speaker:What do you believe is your perfect
marketing measurement stack?
Speaker:And then let's go deep on
Marathon data.
Speaker:For sure, for sure. Yeah.
So I mean, I think broadly,
Speaker:before you even start talking
about marketing measurement stack,
Speaker:there's a bit of these things are true
Speaker:and you can't really argue them.
Speaker:And maybe this applies to the whole
conversation, but where it's just
Speaker:most likely if you're running into a
little bit of this with I'm spending more,
Speaker:getting less or CACs up or
blah, blah, blah, blah, blah.
Speaker:You've just reached that stage where
it's like, maybe we got to change.
Speaker:I think we tend to jump to like, oh,
it's like conversion rate optimization,
Speaker:or I need more creative diversity or blah,
blah, blah, blah, blah. But I'm like,
Speaker:those are symptoms rather than
the cost. Part of it is like,
Speaker:let's get to the cause and
let's understand that most
Speaker:likely it's that we've just
eaten through most of the
Speaker:people who know about us, care
about us or thinking about us.
Speaker:That's very rational. And I think
we need alignment on that first.
Speaker:Great. Now let's talk about measurement
stack, and that's more specific,
Speaker:but I do think that there's a
nice multi-touch attribution tool.
Speaker:Awesome.
Speaker:A lot of people don't know that
GA has that. It does. It does.
Speaker:So you can get it in a variety
of different places and then some
Speaker:kind of experimentation
platform to just test something.
Speaker:And so we all, I think,
Speaker:know the great vendors there some
kind of statistical analysis tool like
Speaker:an mm M of sorts,
Speaker:an MM where you could just put a lot
of data in and get an understanding
Speaker:of what's doing what, and it's not
susceptible to the cookie apocalypse,
Speaker:to the iOS 14, to the blah, blah,
blah. It's just stats, right?
Speaker:So that's what I would view as just,
Speaker:and I think all of the ad platforms
put out papers where they talk about,
Speaker:that's the trinity of measurement,
right? It's MTA, it's testing,
Speaker:it's MM, M, all of that
together, you triangulate.
Speaker:And then in my strong opinion,
Speaker:we need to understand how we're building
the long-term compounding value.
Speaker:How are we going to over time make sure
we get more and more of our revenue
Speaker:coming from people searching for our
brand coming direct to our site where it's
Speaker:not fighting in that auction all
day, every day to get that click.
Speaker:And so I think that's maybe
the segue to marathon,
Speaker:but definitely all of them.
Speaker:And I recommend that if
you're spending, I don't know,
Speaker:more than a million bucks a year or
something like that on marketing.
Speaker:So it's actively every brand to
have a full measurement stack.
Speaker:Got to have it.
Speaker:And I think that that's one of the flaws
that people are coming to understand is
Speaker:MTA alone won't solve it, right?
Speaker:It's good to see click data
and clickstream data and
what are people doing after
Speaker:they see an ad? It gives you some insight,
Speaker:but you need that m that shows correlation
when spend goes up on TV or YouTube,
Speaker:what happens to sales if there's no
correlation, there's no causation,
Speaker:but then you got to run experiments to
see, okay, but is there causation? Is it,
Speaker:is there causation? So all
those things work together.
Speaker:Yeah.
Speaker:Let's.
Speaker:Talk about, I think
the other thing though,
Speaker:the one point that I think might be
helpful, and I know we're short on time,
Speaker:but I think this might be helpful, is
Speaker:the MTA or even the
end platforms, we think
Speaker:they know all of the clicks and
they know all of the purchases,
Speaker:and that's deterministic.
Speaker:Whereas models are probabilistic
and therefore less trustworthy.
Speaker:The reality is 85% of people are
opting out of tracking on iPhones.
Speaker:A lot of our.
Speaker:IPhone users, you hover over
the little I in ads manager,
Speaker:when you're looking at data and
it says, this data is modeled.
Speaker:So even the click based roas,
Speaker:which we think is the highest we
switched to from seven day click,
Speaker:one day view down to one day click
because we're like, we're accountable.
Speaker:And then the reality is that the vast
majority of this data is modeled because
Speaker:there's so much data loss. So
Speaker:there are often questions around, okay,
Speaker:I view what's in platform
as capital T truth, right?
Speaker:Because you've got all of the
clicks, you know what everyone did.
Speaker:It's unfortunately bullshit.
Speaker:And so I think the more we
realize that the flaw of this,
Speaker:just from that perspective,
Speaker:not in terms of all of the other negative
implications that it has on us in
Speaker:terms of optimizing just for short term
and just getting into this doom spiral,
Speaker:but of the fact that that data is modeled,
heavily modeled, I dunno how much,
Speaker:I don't know the specifics, but just
hover over the little eye in Mads manager,
Speaker:I'll tell you. And then look at the data.
Speaker:The vast majority of people are opting
out of being tracked on their phones,
Speaker:and I don't know what the number is,
Speaker:but 70 to 80% of sessions
are on mobile for many of our
Speaker:brands, for many of our DC context, I
don't know what the number is for Amazon,
Speaker:but it's like it's all modeled
and that's okay. It's okay.
Speaker:So let's not poo poo statistical analysis.
Speaker:Let's not poo P all of this stuff that
we tend to poo because all of it's
Speaker:modeled.
Speaker:Great point, great point. Love that.
Speaker:And it's only going to
become more and more true.
Speaker:There's going to be less and less clarity.
Speaker:There's going to be more and more
privacy. That's kind of part of this,
Speaker:but we can then still
triangulate and understand, okay,
Speaker:when we're doing these things,
Speaker:it leads to this kind of business
outcome that I'm looking for.
Speaker:And so walk through the, and I'm fine
on time actually just to clarify that,
Speaker:but what's the thesis
behind marathon data?
Speaker:What problem are you solving? And
talk to us about how that works.
Speaker:Totally. Well,
Speaker:it starts with this realization that
brand is important. Brand is the moat.
Speaker:Brand is the thing that protects our
ability to generate profits over time.
Speaker:Protects us from competition,
Speaker:protects us from someone who's willing
to come in and try to steal my customers
Speaker:because they can spend
twice as much as I can.
Speaker:Or some brand from name
your country who just
Speaker:straight up copies my product and
tries to sell it for half price,
Speaker:which has happened to I think many of
the listeners of this podcast ourselves
Speaker:included. What then do we have?
Speaker:How then do we continue to have people
come to our site and pay twice as much
Speaker:for our thing, you know what I mean?
Speaker:Or keep coming to us and
not need to only buy on a
Speaker:discount or whatever, selling our souls,
Speaker:that being important and that being
something that tends to happen to every
Speaker:brand as they reach some level of success.
I don't know what the annual revenue
Speaker:is, but this general idea
that brand is important,
Speaker:brand is ultimately the most important
thing for many of us consumer brands,
Speaker:unless we have some patent,
Speaker:some other IP brand ends up
being that IP if we're just
Speaker:selling consumer goods.
So, okay, that being said,
Speaker:it's been really hard to measure
that so that we can connect
Speaker:that to actual revenue
growth. Historically,
Speaker:the way it's historically been done
is surveys, brand tracker surveys.
Speaker:Let's get our brand awareness. Number
two, problems with that, right?
Speaker:Is that you've got this
intermediary metric. First of all,
Speaker:it took three months to get that
metric. So you're already like, okay,
Speaker:what is this? Okay, my brand
awareness went up five points,
Speaker:but what period of time are we even
looking at? I don't even remember.
Speaker:I'm thinking about Black Friday, cyber
Monday, right? So what? There are two,
Speaker:so whats that are unanswered? What
did I do to get that? And then what's,
Speaker:how much more money am I
making because of that?
Speaker:So we're intending to kind
of get out of surveys,
Speaker:focus on actions like
you're mentioning, right?
Speaker:Everything I do should drive an
action. Yes, love. So behaviors,
Speaker:what people do rather
than what people say.
Speaker:There's a crap ton of that being
generated every day on the internet.
Speaker:So use behavior and then solve
the two. So whats that have been?
Speaker:The pernicious problems with measuring
the impact of brand one is tie it to
Speaker:action as much as you can.
Speaker:Not everything, But as much as you
can tie it to actions you've taken.
Speaker:Give yourself a daily number
that is in the form of dollars,
Speaker:which is solving the second.
Speaker:So which is like how do I
quantify or predict or look
Speaker:back and analyze the
incremental revenue impact
Speaker:of this brand building stuff,
actually make that connection.
Speaker:And so those are the two things
we're trying to do with brand.
Speaker:And so think of us as
Speaker:all of the things I was talking about
on the short term kind of stuff,
Speaker:but for long-term.
Speaker:So our whole focus is not the
clicks, not the short-term purchases,
Speaker:but what's happening over the next
six months and how can we think about
Speaker:building that bank revenue if you'll
that future revenue that I'm going to be
Speaker:building into and
realizing. But then also,
Speaker:how am I driving what we focus on, which
is called resilient baseline revenue.
Speaker:So even as you look at an mm m readout
for instance, over short-term stuff,
Speaker:you'll always get some percentage
of the revenue that wasn't explained
Speaker:necessarily by your short-term
tactics. It was the base sales, right?
Speaker:The sales you would've gotten anyways
is kind of another way to talk about it.
Speaker:The big aha for us was like, yeah,
Speaker:it's fun to look at all the
colors in the chart of the MMM,
Speaker:but what about this base sales?
Speaker:Wouldn't it be cool if that was much
larger If the sales I would've gotten
Speaker:anyways was more?
Speaker:That seems like that's awesome from
the perspective of resilience and risk
Speaker:reduction and better
forecasting and less reliance
Speaker:on third parties that I don't control.
But these all seem like good things.
Speaker:Why do I focus on trying to build that?
Speaker:And we realized there was
nothing out there that does that.
Speaker:So think of us as how do I
build that resilient base,
Speaker:however you want to define it, right?
Speaker:If it's like revenue from
brand search or if it's not as
Speaker:simple, right? You've got
to remove all the spikes.
Speaker:You've got to invest for spend and
seasonality and blah, blah, blah, blah.
Speaker:How do I build that
resilient base of revenue?
Speaker:How do I drive more people to search
for my brand and buy or just memorize my
Speaker:fricking URL I'm coming by?
Speaker:Those are the purchase actions that I
want to drive more of. And that comes from
Speaker:activating the 95% when they become the 5%
Speaker:sure they're going to be more
likely to click on my ads,
Speaker:which will make my
performance more performant.
Speaker:But I also want them to just not
have to go through that thing.
Speaker:Let's play different games.
Speaker:Let's spend our dollars to drive brand
search and revenue from brand search,
Speaker:that kind of stuff. So anyways,
we're trying to, for modern brands,
Speaker:turn this, it's like
incremental future growth.
Speaker:Think about it that way. Less
brand brand's a scary word,
Speaker:but it's an important word and you got
to stand by it because brand matters from
Speaker:a performance marketing mindset mindset.
Speaker:We're just trying to turn incremental
future growth beyond what you would
Speaker:achieve if you were just continuing
to spend in the way you are today.
Speaker:So brand but into performance,
Speaker:into a performance marketing workflow
where I get data today on what I
Speaker:did yesterday so that I can act
and make decisions and basically
Speaker:run a full funnel ad account basically
across YouTube and meta TikTok,
Speaker:whatever.
Speaker:Man, I love that. I 100%
agree brand is moat.
Speaker:At the end of the day, it's what you have.
Speaker:And I think brand shows up in
the ability to charge the right
Speaker:prices. You can protect your profits.
Speaker:It's the ability to continue
to grow and to have people
Speaker:searching for your brand.
I know Mark Pritchard,
Speaker:the marketing director at p and g always
says one of the greatest signs that we
Speaker:look for knowing that a brand
has traction is brand search
Speaker:growing over time. That's
what we need to measure.
Speaker:And I like this idea of resiliency,
Speaker:this baseline revenue is that growing
and that's going to be an indicator of
Speaker:am I doing things right?
Speaker:And I do think there's this sense that
brand is mushy and it's fluffy and you
Speaker:can't measure it and it's
just in the ether or whatever,
Speaker:but that's not really true.
Brand can be measured,
Speaker:you just don't measure it in the same way.
Speaker:And you do kind of need
of a collection of tools.
Speaker:But I think this piece that you're
solving of how do we measure the resilient
Speaker:growth of our brand shows
up with chubby, right?
Speaker:Would you say eight years in a row?
Speaker:Like the top bottom line
growth or whatever. Yeah.
Speaker:Even in the midst of craziness.
Totally. It's important.
Speaker:It's important to have
that resilient growth.
Speaker:And so I guess maybe as we wrap up here,
Speaker:what are some of the insights that pop up?
Speaker:Do you have any examples
of with this data,
Speaker:these are the insights that pop up and
then what we can do with those insights?
Speaker:So some of the data that
has come to the surface,
Speaker:it's actually pretty interesting. So
Speaker:the one point though that I would make
is that sometimes people think about, ah,
Speaker:it seems too good to be true that
you can measure this brand thing in a
Speaker:performance markety ish way
or even measure the impact,
Speaker:the revenue impact of the
brand. The reality is that
Speaker:p and g or Ford or these massive
Speaker:advertisers,
Speaker:they've worked with firms to
build these custom models,
Speaker:they cost millions to
build and to maintain,
Speaker:and they take a really long time to get
all the data in, et cetera, et cetera,
Speaker:which is why we lowly 50,
a hundred million dollars.
Speaker:Brands don't really do this,
Speaker:but they've been doing it for a long time.
Speaker:But they've just been these crazy
complex models that were built by these
Speaker:analytics firms and they
took just a really long time,
Speaker:but it's proven methodology. They've
been measuring this stuff for forever.
Speaker:How else
Speaker:for us modern consumer brand builders
to think that all of the traditional
Speaker:multi-billion dollar brands have just
gotten there because they've been flying
Speaker:blind, they've had no data. I think
we need a little humility ourselves.
Speaker:These are very precise people. Absolutely.
It's expensive to do it that way.
Speaker:So I think the thing that we're doing in.
Speaker:America, not that it's not measurable,
Speaker:it's just not measurable in the way
we're used to. And so makes sense.
Speaker:Not in the way we're used to and then
up until I guess what we're doing is,
Speaker:and not a way that we could afford.
Speaker:Because.
Speaker:It would be very expensive
to build these custom models.
Speaker:So part of the thing that we're
doing is, let's try to generalize it.
Speaker:A lot of the people who built those
super custom models for those big
Speaker:advertisers from these analytics
firms are the ones who were like,
Speaker:this is how I would do it if I
would democratize this for everyone.
Speaker:So when we came together it
was like, oh, this is awesome.
Speaker:Let's figure this out. But some of
the big things that have stood out,
Speaker:one of the things we've
always knocked on is
Speaker:whether or not a follow
or a share is valuable.
Speaker:I think we've all gone through this.
Speaker:Well at least I have this hype
cycle of that's all that matters.
Speaker:It's the worst thing. There's
no value. Maybe it does matter.
Speaker:So the reality though is somewhere in
the middle there's some value of someone
Speaker:taking an action and that is an
action, it's a precursor action.
Speaker:It's a non shopping behavior,
Speaker:but there is a statistical relationship
between people taking those actions and
Speaker:your future revenue. So
if you can find that.
Speaker:So I think that's one of the big things.
Speaker:So we think about then spending
our money not to drive a purchase.
Speaker:So now I'm talking about
non purchase campaigns,
Speaker:which freaks people out
because they're just like,
Speaker:why would I do a subscriber
campaign that is insane?
Speaker:Does it have value, blah, blah, blah
Speaker:to get IG follows, to get, TikTok
follows to get Facebook follows.
Speaker:Can you imagine getting a
Facebook page like that?
Speaker:But the reality is that these sorts
of things are opening up additional
Speaker:reach, lowering the cost per
a thousand accounts reached,
Speaker:reaching different people. Because as
you think about if you're the ad auction,
Speaker:right,
Speaker:you're going to serve media because you're
going to get the highest bid on this
Speaker:set of people.
Speaker:It doesn't make sense to serve media to
these people who haven't shown all these
Speaker:intense signals that they're in
market. So they're not going to do it.
Speaker:So then when you choose
different objectives, yeah,
Speaker:the bid is different because the auction's
different and you're reaching all
Speaker:these people that you
weren't otherwise reaching.
Speaker:And if you use your best creative
creative that our friend Jacque makes or
Speaker:that any of these brands have
made that has earned engagement,
Speaker:talks about who they're what to do,
Speaker:you're doing the brand building thing
in a performance market. You don't only
Speaker:have to do billboards and linear tv,
you can do enough performance market.
Speaker:So we're getting people to take those
actions because that's a lot of the
Speaker:playbook that we used at to do this.
Speaker:It was very much like let's build
our community by distributing
Speaker:content that wouldn't crush
it in a bottom funnel.
Speaker:Performance marketing a set
necessarily wouldn't beat the
Speaker:very product offer urgency sort of thing
that you got to do. Not knocking that.
Speaker:Totally. So then I think the key
things are run media differently,
Speaker:use different objectives and it matters.
It helps, it works kind of thing.
Speaker:And if you want to lower CPMs,
you want to reach more people,
Speaker:those are the unarguable rules.
Speaker:But now we're helping to provide a
little bit more context on how valuable
Speaker:it's so that you can think
about how much to budget,
Speaker:think about what is the split
for me given my cash profile,
Speaker:given what I demand from an incremental
role on a 30 day roll basis,
Speaker:whatever that might be.
So that's kind of what we're finding,
Speaker:but finding that YouTube is
super valuable on a long-term
Speaker:context, pretty meaningfully.
Speaker:But then Facebook as well, I
mean just going out absolutely,
Speaker:whether it be post engagement campaigns
or trying to get Facebook page likes,
Speaker:yes, that action matters,
Speaker:but then it's also the fact that
you're just reaching people you weren't
Speaker:otherwise reaching. And then it's
like, ah, do I have the creative?
Speaker:Everyone has more brand building creative,
Speaker:whether it's amazing and fricking
awesome, different conversation,
Speaker:but everyone's got to start
somewhere. You know what I mean?
Speaker:And so we're helping you
to put numbers to your gut,
Speaker:whereas that putting this piece of content
in front of what people is just good.
Speaker:That's who we are. That's
what we do kind of thing.
Speaker:Now we're just validating
that with numbers. But yeah,
Speaker:I mean to your point, brand
search not a perfect metric. Yes,
Speaker:it's tied to spend. Yes.
If you spend more on dr,
Speaker:you will get more brand
search. That's not the point.
Speaker:The point is that there are other ways
to spend your dollars to more efficiently
Speaker:drive brand search And to more efficiently
then get those clicks to your site
Speaker:and more efficiently have them be high
converting. That's more the point.
Speaker:What we learned at Chubby's is like, yeah,
Speaker:let's spend our money to drive
brand search more efficiently.
Speaker:That's what I want to do. That's
how I want to use the ad platforms.
Speaker:That puts me in a different bucket where
I'm leveraging it to meet my needs.
Speaker:And so we're just trying to help brands.
Speaker:I don't want to say see the light because
that's implying that they're blind or
Speaker:whatever, but just free them up.
Speaker:To.
Speaker:Do the things that'll help to truly
drive their business without seeing this
Speaker:mythical dip. I think that's the other
thing is people transition. They're like,
Speaker:oh, I going to go out of business. Well,
Speaker:I'm transitioning to reality is absolutely
not, but it matters how you do it.
Speaker:It matters how you do it.
Speaker:And so we're trying to help
people through that as well.
Speaker:But those are some just quick takeaways.
Speaker:That's so important and putting data
behind your gut and your intuition.
Speaker:I trust and believe that if I invest
in marketing in this way with a
Speaker:really strong brand message
that compels people,
Speaker:but it's not the buy now save a
hundred percent type of thing.
Speaker:It's like it's a good brand message.
I believe that's going to work.
Speaker:I'm going to trust it, but I'd
sure like some data to back me up.
Speaker:And that's what you guys have
built and what you're doing here,
Speaker:and it just makes sense.
Speaker:We look at this all the time with YouTube
and then there's been such an influx
Speaker:of people coming to MG for us
to help them solve YouTube,
Speaker:which we do all the time. But hey,
Speaker:if we can reach the right audience
maybe for a five or $8 CPM or a
Speaker:$10 CCP M and you're getting a
30 or $40 CPM somewhere else,
Speaker:that's going to have an impact.
Speaker:And if I can drive more branded search,
Speaker:which comes to me at 50 cents or whatever,
Speaker:that's going to be better than driving
$7 clicks and some of these other areas.
Speaker:And so it's understanding some
of those things are powerful,
Speaker:but now you're putting some of the
measurement behind it to see the real
Speaker:business impact of those things.
Speaker:And then just trying to validating
it with straight up well run.
Speaker:Do you hold that incrementality studies
so that when you get those results,
Speaker:yeah, I mean it trains your
MMM or your statistical model,
Speaker:but it also gives you data that you can
take to the CO and CFO and just be like,
Speaker:because the tough thing
that always happens,
Speaker:and you probably deal with this with
your clients, it's like, oh crap,
Speaker:October soft or September was rough.
Speaker:You.
Speaker:Got to cut all that stuff,
right? Only bottom funnel.
Speaker:And then when you don't have
Speaker:any kind of causal holdout data,
there's no way for you to say,
Speaker:we would be doing worse if we weren't
doing this brand building stuff.
Speaker:There's no way to say that. But
that's true Or it's potentially true.
Speaker:And if you're running these
experiments constantly,
Speaker:if you have this culture
of experimentation, you can
actually say that, right?
Speaker:Here's the data.
Speaker:Look at these geos doing way worse where
we're not doing this demand gen stuff
Speaker:or I don't want to say demand
creating net new demand for our brand,
Speaker:let's call it. And so that's
what we really encourage.
Speaker:Anyone who's doing any kind of stuff
that doesn't necessarily optimize for
Speaker:driving that short-term today
purchase is just run experiments
Speaker:so that you can have that
conversation where it's just like, no,
Speaker:this is the whole goal.
Speaker:We want to make more money than we would
had we just been sticking to bottom
Speaker:funnel demand capture. That's the goal.
Speaker:More profit dollars sustainably
over many, many years.
Speaker:We're all aligned on
that front, right? Yes.
Speaker:So if we have some numbers
in this missing fluffy
Speaker:piece, that is the compounder,
right? That's the end of the day.
Speaker:It's the compounder. It's the compounder.
Speaker:Yes.
Speaker:The bottom funnel land capture.
Speaker:It is the thing that cash
is in on the compounding.
Speaker:But if you don't have a compounding,
right, I mean, then we're in trouble.
Speaker:So we want to solve that.
Speaker:In trouble. Man, it's so good. So good.
I could keep going on this all day.
Speaker:I absolutely love this stuff.
Speaker:But we do need to wrap up and we'll have
to do another round in the future and
Speaker:hopefully not wait a couple years,
but who is marathon data for?
Speaker:What's your ICP or your ideal client
profile and how can people find out more?
Speaker:Sure. So ICP, it's like,
Speaker:let's call 'em generally
modern consumer brands who
Speaker:maybe reached a point
where they're just like,
Speaker:I think part of the reason maybe why we're
not seeing the results we want to see
Speaker:is because maybe we haven't been
able to invest in this brand stuff,
Speaker:or
I know brand is important,
Speaker:but I can't figure out how to
invest in it or measure it.
Speaker:So there's that little bit
of pain or I'm crushing it,
Speaker:but I don't know what I'm doing
that's helping my pressure.
Speaker:What should I be doubling down
on? What should I be cutting?
Speaker:Everything's seemingly working? What's,
Speaker:there's those things You're generally
spending a lot of money on meta, Google,
Speaker:YouTube, TikTok, you've
got active socials,
Speaker:you're trying to expand multichannel,
right? You start a D two C,
Speaker:now you're on Amazon, now you're
in Walmart or Nordstrom or whoever,
Speaker:and you don't have to
be all of that stuff.
Speaker:But those are generally the folks that
we work with may need to be around for
Speaker:three, four years to have enough
history. So all that stuff,
Speaker:but pretty much any consumer brand.
Speaker:Love it. Love it. And then
how can they find out more?
Speaker:Where can they get a demo? How can
they dive in? That sort of thing.
Speaker:Yeah, yeah, yeah.
Speaker:So you can just slide
into my dms on LinkedIn,
Speaker:just search Preston Ruther with shorts
in the middle of the first and last name.
Speaker:Or you can go to marathon data co com or
Speaker:Marathon Taco. Someone told me
that I think is a way better.
Speaker:Way to taco marathon taco. That's
perfect. You'll never forget that.
Speaker:But yeah, hit me up on LinkedIn,
Speaker:read some of the stuff that kind of
helps articulate these Yammer rings
Speaker:on the internet, but.
Speaker:Yeah.
Speaker:Yep. Love it, man. Really appreciate
the time. I'll double down on this.
Speaker:You're still one of the best follows
on LinkedIn out there if you're in the
Speaker:marketing and brand building
and consumer product building.
Speaker:And if you're in marketing, you got
to follow precedent on LinkedIn.
Speaker:So just do that.
Speaker:Checkout marathon data co.com or
Speaker:the taco. I like that even better. And
so Preston, thanks man. Ton of fun.
Speaker:Thank you Brett, as always,
and always great to catch up.
Speaker:Pleasure dude. Love what you're
doing and thanks for the opportunity.
Speaker:Hope this is helpful for the audience.
Speaker:A hundred percent. And as
always, thank you for tuning in.
Speaker:We'd love to hear from you. What would
you like to hear more of on the show?
Speaker:If you found this episode helpful and
you think it'd be helpful for someone
Speaker:else, please share it. And with that,
until next time, thank you for listening.
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