[00:00:00] Tandreia Bellamy: It's not only data. There's some very good information in here, some of the insights, some of the things to help you try and navigate this world of uncertainty that seems to be coming more uncertain. You can understand how different events have a different impact on what's happening in the world of freight.

[00:00:22] Narrator: Welcome to Supply Chain Now the number one voice of supply chain. Join us as we share critical news, key insights, and real supply chain leadership from across the globe. One conversation at a time.

[00:00:35] Scott W. Luton: Good afternoon, good morning, good evening, wherever you may be. Scott Luton with Supply Chain Now, and I'm joined by my esteemed co-host, Tandreia Bellamy.

[00:00:45] Scott W. Luton: Tandreia, how are you doing today? I.

[00:00:47] Tandreia Bellamy: Great Scott, and you were just trying to see if we were paying attention. You know,

[00:00:52] Scott W. Luton: we've got a great show teed up here today. A great show, Tandreia. We're continuing a long running quarterly series here, a popular informative series that we get a lot of feedback around. We're gonna be sharing key insights from the latest quarterly edition of one of the leading transportation industry resources, the U.S. Bank Freight Payment Index for Q1 2025.

[00:01:14] Scott W. Luton: Now, folks, you all know how we do it by now. Tandreia and I, we, we have, we have co-hosted a bunch of these over the years. Uh, not only will we be diving into what the data is telling us, but we're gonna marry that. I. With boots on the ground in market practitioner perspective, and we'll also not only get a good sense of what transpired in the first quarter, 2025, but we're also gonna be sharing a few nuggets that's gonna help you prepare for where we are now and where we're heading.

[00:01:42] Scott W. Luton: A great show coming up. Tandreia, should be one heck of a show, huh?

[00:01:45] Tandreia Bellamy: Absolutely. And you do such a great job of having guests with myriad backgrounds so that we can get a really well-rounded look at what's going on in the supply chain world.

[00:01:56] Scott W. Luton: That is right. And I'll tell you, it has been a fast and furious start, uh, as we're approaching halfway through 2025.

[00:02:03] Scott W. Luton: Goodness. But folks, three things before we get started here today. First off, let us know what you think. If you enjoy today's show, be sure to share it with a friend or your network. And number three, before we get we jump into the conversation, some valuable context. The U.S. Bank Freight Payment Index released each quarter.

[00:02:21] Scott W. Luton: Offers tons of intriguing insights. It's based on the massive amounts of data processed through U.S. Bank Tandreia. Get this. Did you know U.S. Bank processed four to $3 billion worth of transactions last year alone? Tons and tons of data from ministry, and that's one of the biggest reasons why U.S. Bank is a great resource for this information that many business leaders leverage out in the marketplace.

[00:02:45] Scott W. Luton: Tandreia, um. Get a lot of good stuff, a lot of insights, a lot of actionable insights coming up. You ready to go? Absolutely. Alright, well let's get started. And folks, download your own copy of the 2025 Q1 U.S. Bank Freight Payment Index. Follow along, uh, beat it up, spill coffee on it, mark it up. And, uh, again, let us know your take on the discussion day.

[00:03:09] Scott W. Luton: So with all of that said, with the mute button off. We're gonna be welcoming in our featured guests here today, uh, starting with back by Papa Demand, the one only. Bobby Holland, director of Freight Business Analytics at U.S. Bank. And hey, Dr. Jason Miller with the Eli Broad Endowed Professor of Supply Chain Management Program at Michigan State University.

[00:03:33] Scott W. Luton: Hey, hey, Bobby. Welcome back. How you doing? Doing well. How's everyone? Great to see you and Dr. Jason Miller. Jason, how you doing today?

[00:03:45] Scott W. Luton: So Jason, the mute button's got you as well. This is a pesky mute, mute button here today. Alright, here, I'm gonna mute button today. It's just goodness, goodness, left, right and center. Oh, it sure is, folks. It sure is, but hey, uh, that's what happens with live programming from time to time. But regardless, folks, Tandreia, Bobby, and Jason, I wanna start with a fun warmup question.

[00:04:04] Scott W. Luton: This is gonna be one we want y'all to weigh in out there. The folks are following along in the comments because about a week or so ago, the whole world celebrated. May the fourth be with you. That's right. The annual day of Star Wars celebration for fans everywhere. And this is one I ask our panel here.

[00:04:21] Scott W. Luton: And Jason, I'm gonna start with you. Um, whether it is one of your favorite Star Wars movies or one of your favorite sci-fi movies in general. Uh, do you celebrate the May 4th by watching, uh, a great film each and every year?

[00:04:36] Jason Miller: Yeah, well, a little bit, but I'll admit, I usually rewind the clock one more week, um, to Alien Week.

[00:04:42] Jason Miller: So, uh, April 26th, uh, and see what's going on there. So, all time favorite in that franchise. I'm gonna be kind of the dark horse here and pick the third one. Alien Three by David Venture. Oh, wow. Just this. Yeah. Not, not the normal pick, but uh, you know what, sometimes the world doesn't end the way people like it too.

[00:05:00] Jason Miller: So

[00:05:01] Scott W. Luton: that is right. But hey, so Gurney Weaver, what an all time Hall of fame, um, actress. That of course made the alien franchise what it is. Huh?

[00:05:11] Jason Miller: Yep. No, a absolutely. Absolutely. And you know, I always like it when a director will take something a different route than what people were expecting. And you know, I always, you know, I love history, so perfect world, I be teaching history, but you just don't make much money doing it.

[00:05:27] Jason Miller: So, hey, supply chain, here we go. Hey,

[00:05:28] Scott W. Luton: we can't, the global supply chain industry can't lose you. Uh, Jason Miller. So you stick with supply chain. It was for us all. Um. So Bobby, uh, and, and who knows, we may, we might need a Sigourney Weaver for Global Supply Chain. Help us, uh, save the world here too. But Bobby Holland, tell us, uh, your favorite Star Wars film or one of your favorite sci-fi films.

[00:05:49] Bobby Holland: Okay. My favorites are not films. They're actually TV shows from the Star Wars universe. Um, I'm actually a big fan of Andor, especially going into season two, but for an all time ultimate sci-fi, the Expanse.

[00:06:04] Scott W. Luton: Oh, the Expanse. Okay. Uh, I gotta check that out. I gotta add that to my list. And I've heard about Andor.

[00:06:10] Scott W. Luton: My son Ben, is a Star Wars consultant. He knows every aspect of that universe. And I've heard big things, but I gotta check out The Expanse if it's Bobby Holland recommended. So, Tandreia, between Alien three and Andor and The Expanse, what's gonna be your go-to sci-fi adventure?

[00:06:28] Tandreia Bellamy: Well, I'm gonna go into the Star Wars universe and say Return of the Jedi.

[00:06:32] Tandreia Bellamy: Because of all of the relationships, you know, Luke and Leia Leia and Hans Luke and Hans D, C3PO, and R2D2. It was just a great movie about relationships.

[00:06:47] Scott W. Luton: Uh, I love that Tandreia. I love that. Uh, relationships power the world. They certainly power global supply chain, and that's a great parallel there.

[00:06:54] Scott W. Luton: And I, I would add Tandreia, you're reading my mind. Uh, uh, probably my favorite scifi adventure is I saw Return of the Jedi. In the movie theater with my mom and folks as, as much as I love streaming these days is what we're doing right now. There's just something that's, we've lost about going out to the movie theaters and, and, and having like this, these kindred spirits of the gasp and the cheers and stuff.

[00:07:17] Scott W. Luton: And that's how it used to be. Uh, but regardless, uh, I appreciate all y'all weighing in and made the fourth certainly, uh, be with all of us here today. Um, alright. We got a lot to get into here today. A ton, uh, to get into your today. I wanna start with this Bobby. Um, if you had to put today's conversation into a one sentence theme, just what would that be?

[00:07:41] Bobby Holland: I would say that we are battling headwinds on multiple fronts as truck freight volumes continue to drop a lot of interesting numbers this quarter,

[00:07:51] Scott W. Luton: undoubtedly. And did you, did you bring your lightsaber. The cut through the data here today. I don't, we might need a more, we might need a whole battleship, battleship galata to get through the, uh, the data here today.

[00:08:03] Scott W. Luton: Um, but let's do this Jason. Um, we really enjoyed having you with us. Uh, it was probably about two years ago, you and, uh, a wonderful cadre of Michigan State University supply chain students. Now generation. Uh, but for folks that miss that, or for folks that miss your keynotes and your, your wonderful insights across social and a whole bunch more, tell us a, uh, briefly about yourself.

[00:08:26] Jason Miller: Yeah, so I am a research professor here at Michigan State. Um, originally started specializing in the trucking space and especially safety, and then sort of branched out from there. But a lot of what I work on now is really at the intersection of economics and supply chain management. Um. And so getting into freight activity, retailing, wholesaling, manufacturing, and really trying to get a sense of the dynamics that's going on there and then translating that over to how that is likely to affect the freight markets with, again, a specific focus on the us uh, for higher trucking sector.

[00:09:02] Scott W. Luton: Hmm. That is an important intersection and, and again, great to have you back here, Jason. Looking forward to your perspective throughout the discussion. Uh, tantrum. You know, as I mentioned on the front end, you and I have co-hosted a bunch of shows over the years, uh, and some of those shows you were the rock and roll star because of your significant industry experience, especially in global supply chain.

[00:09:22] Scott W. Luton: For our newer audience members, maybe this is the first show they're catching, I think it'd be helpful for them to kind of understand a little bit more about your background as well as how supply chain leaders use things like the U.S. Bank Freight Payment Index.

[00:09:37] Tandreia Bellamy: Well, Scott, 34 years with UPS, um, first 30 years were in small package, all about standardization, process improvement.

[00:09:47] Tandreia Bellamy: Efficiency was, uh, involved with the deployment of automation. Actually, when I started with UPS, we were on paper. So watching that whole digital transformation and seeing what it could do to improve. Our, our customer supply chain was huge last four years was again, our supply chain solutions, um, group, uh, where it was warehousing and distribution.

[00:10:14] Tandreia Bellamy: Um, did some, again, technology deployments, uh, ended by career with our global freight forwarding team. So really got a chance to see the entire supply chain from our customer's perspectives. Since then, I've been doing some consulting and my most recent endeavor is to become a certified executive coach.

[00:10:36] Scott W. Luton: Hey, how about that? A lot of folks gonna benefit from that Tandreia. Um, I'm looking forward to, to catching up with you over lunch, uh, in the Atlanta area soon. What, um, when it comes to the immense, um, research, insights and data in particular, uh, the U.S. Bank Freight Payment Index, how do folks use it in the industry?

[00:10:55] Tandreia Bellamy: You know, and that's the great thing. It's not only data. There's some very good information in here, some of the insights, some of the things to help you try and navigate this world of uncertainty that seems to be coming more uncertain, understanding how the data points connect. Understanding that you can't look at just a national number in aggregate, breaking it up into the region.

[00:11:20] Tandreia Bellamy: So again, you can understand how different events have a, a. A different impact on what's happening in the world of freight.

[00:11:29] Scott W. Luton: Well said. We need as many lenses to help us decipher, uh, this industry on, on countless levels as we can. Uh, all right, so Bobby, for our viewers, again, our audience continues to evolve and expand across the globe.

[00:11:45] Scott W. Luton: For our new viewers that may not know to share briefly what the U.S. Bank Freight Payment Index is, what it analyzes, and really how it works.

[00:11:55] Bobby Holland: Well, the U.S. Bank rate payment index is our view of the marketplace. Uh, it's basically based on, as you pointed out earlier, $43 billion worth of, uh, payment transactions.

[00:12:07] Bobby Holland: The data accumulated. Uh, we measure shipments and spend, uh, produce those metrics. Uh, we have a national overview and then we also do, uh, the regional breakdown and we do quarter over quarter, year over year. Measurements of those metrics and comparisons. We've also incorporated as you're showing now, um, some data, some rates, related data from our, a new partner, DAT.

[00:12:34] Bobby Holland: Uh, so that adds some weight to some of the things that we talk about regularly in the commentary. Uh, and then basically what the index measures, it's a quarterly chain based index, uh, measures in a same star sales type of comparison. Uh, like buckets of, of activity between quarters and then again the year over year.

[00:12:53] Bobby Holland: So it's one other data point for the marketplace.

[00:12:56] Scott W. Luton: That's right. Uh, lot. I appreciate that clarity, Bobby. And congrats. Uh, as we shared, I think last time we all got together, uh, the, the. Adding more value with the data from DAT on the freight rates. That's an outstanding addition, so I appreciate that. Call out there, Bobby.

[00:13:14] Scott W. Luton: Um, okay, we got a lot to get into Tandreia, Bobby, and Jason and I wanna start, uh, Bobby, as we got eight key takeaways from the Q1 2025 freight payment index. Let's start, I think we've got three key takeaways from a national perspective. So, uh, Bobby, tell us more.

[00:13:34] Bobby Holland: Well, nationally, uh, the first quarter saw a lot of interesting weather patterns.

[00:13:40] Bobby Holland: We're looking at severe, uh, we, uh, winter storms. We're looking at wildfires in California. Uh, then there's obviously the tariff uncertainty that is, uh, top of mind for, uh, people in this business. And then on top of that, we have, you know, uh, flat, uh, retail sales. So it, it led to, you know, national declines in quarterly and yearly shipment and spend volumes.

[00:14:04] Bobby Holland: Then we also have the fact that national shipments dropped for the 11th consecutive quarter. Um, however, the year over year declines were smallest. So again, we kind of see perhaps, uh, I won't say bottoming out, but maybe the, a softer landing. And then we also see on the, uh, variations in the regional results in Q1, we have the northeast posting.

[00:14:26] Bobby Holland: Increases for the first time in 11 quarters, but then we saw some, uh, very anomalous numbers in the Southwest region with a 40% drop in year over year shipments. And that's the largest decline we've recorded, you know, from our data. So a lot of, like I said, a lot of weird numbers, a lot of weird things in

[00:14:42] Scott W. Luton: general going on this quarter.

[00:14:44] Scott W. Luton: Undoubtedly a lot to get into. So, Jason, that begs the question with you and Tandreia. Jason, when you, um, when you check out the national scope of the Q1 2025 U.S. Bank Freight payment index, what else do you, or what else did you see in Q1?

[00:15:01] Jason Miller: Yeah, so Q1, even looking, you know, beyond other data is, as Bobby mentioned, it was just an odd quarter.

[00:15:08] Jason Miller: Um, you know, from a standpoint you had the big sort of slowdowns in January due to the extreme weather. I. But you also had, for example, parts of chemical production that were very, very, very robust these first few months, you know, paintings and coatings and things like that, as well as fertilizers that don't necessarily affect the dry van space quite as much, but some of the, um, you know, the local piece.

[00:15:32] Jason Miller: And so. Q1 is, it's an interesting quarter because you did have some signs, um, in various industries of improving conditions. Um, aerospace sector, for example, is doing substantially better right now. We just had the announcement, the Boeing's deliveries for this April were double what their deliveries were the prior April.

[00:15:54] Jason Miller: Um, but you also have sectors that remain essentially in sort of the doldrums. Um, from where, from where they were. Or even sectors like beverage production, which had been sort of a shining light of manufacturing that's shown some substantial weakening. So overall it's, it was kind of just, for lack of a better term, an an odd quarter.

[00:16:13] Jason Miller: Um, and you know, now we're just characterized by this tremendous uncertainty taking place at the moment.

[00:16:20] Scott W. Luton: Yeah. Uh, will, well said Jason. Tandreia. Um, he touched on a lot of things there, from chemicals to aerospace to beverages, kinda mixed bag of activity and results and outcomes. Your thoughts, uh, nationally from first quarter Tandreia?

[00:16:35] Tandreia Bellamy: Um, my thoughts are freight used to be an afterthought. Um, it was one of the things that your market marketing teams didn't think about your production teams unless they were missing inventory. Didn't really think about finance, just knew it as a line item. What is going on in the supply chain and what the movement, both inbound and outbound of product, what's gonna happen in warehousing?

[00:17:02] Tandreia Bellamy: What can potentially happen with inventories? These are gonna need to be very cross-functional conversations that happen in all aspects of decision making across all industries. And I think some of the things in the freight, um, index really point that out. This uncertainty I. Is here certainly.

[00:17:25] Scott W. Luton: I love that and it is not an afterthought any, any longer.

[00:17:28] Scott W. Luton: Uh, excellent comments there. Uh, Tandreia. Um, alright, so Bobby, Jason and Tandreia, this is what we're gonna do next. Um, I love the as as really all three of y'all may have spoken to. I love the regional. I. Take where we, we kind of dive into, uh, five regions, uh, across the US and get a little more market specific in what we're seeing, uh, and what we saw across first quarter 2025.

[00:17:50] Scott W. Luton: So Bobby, where we want to go next is we want to go to the west region, the wild, wild West. Uh, so Bobby, key takeaways from what we saw there. Well, again,

[00:18:03] Bobby Holland: as everyone is well aware, uh, there were catastrophic wildfires in Southern California. But despite that, uh, there was strong port activity and robust factory output, and this basically kept the, uh, west to moderate, to moderate, moderate quarterly and yearly gains in shipments.

[00:18:22] Bobby Holland: Uh, shipments were, uh, 1%, uh, quarterly and 1.5% year over year, which, you know, is given the recent numbers. That's, that's good. Yeah. So we like to see that and then spend. We're only down 1.4%, quarter over quarter, but annually we're up six tenths of a percent. So that, again, good numbers considering where we, where we've been.

[00:18:46] Scott W. Luton: Okay. All things considered is the phrase that, uh, your comments, uh, bring to my mind, which is a great show in NPR, by the way. Uh, alright. So, Dr. Jason Miller out there in that west region, uh, your key takeaways.

[00:19:01] Jason Miller: Yeah, I mean, I think the big thing is, you know, as Bobby mentioned, you had the wildfires and the disruptions, and then of course the west coast ports had a nice boost of activity.

[00:19:11] Jason Miller: Um, as importers were bringing products in, I. Really more than anything to get around the concerns with the East Coast port strike. Um, you know, we saw the western railroads, BNSF and uh, up were posting record intermodal container movements. Um, certainly stronger year over year growth in comparison to the, um, eastern railroads.

[00:19:32] Jason Miller: And so, um, I know. The other big thing is now that the Boeing strike has resolved itself, that is a huge, um, huge benefit for that entire ecosystem and the Seattle area because when we lost, lost, um, those operations with the strike back in September, October, that took out almost 25% of US aircraft and parts production,

[00:19:54] Scott W. Luton: man.

[00:19:55] Scott W. Luton: Okay. Uh, Tandreia, uh, mixture of planes, trains, and automobiles, uh, from, uh, Jason there. What do you see taking place out west?

[00:20:04] Tandreia Bellamy: Um, it's gonna be interesting to look at the West as we move forward. You know, we talked about planes, trains, and automobiles. We're gonna also have to talk about ships. You know, there's quite a few either cancellations or blank sailings that can definitely import what's happening in the West as we, uh, as we look forward.

[00:20:23] Scott W. Luton: Yeah. Where, uh, I'll tell you what, the late John Candy and Steve Marish, that should be the sequel planes, trains, automobiles, and container ships. Uh, I'd be the first in line to buy a ticket. Speaking of which, I've got a little graphic here I want to share. Uh, y'all may have seen this yesterday. Gene Soroka, uh, executive Director of the Port of Los Angeles.

[00:20:42] Scott W. Luton: He was quoted in the Wall Street Journal as saying, quote, your refrigerator, outdoor patio, said regular stuff is not going to come and flood the marketplace. Because we've gone from 145% to 30%. Of course, of course he's talking about the tariffs and, and the uh, uh, tentative and still emerging, uh, deal, uh, when it comes to China and the us and one of the quick fact to it for some of y'all that may not know Port of la, the busiest container port in North America and has been for a couple of decades now.

[00:21:10] Scott W. Luton: Uh, I love my factoids. Jason, you're a big history fan. I am too. Supply chain history, big old supply chain history nerd. Uh, alright, so. We are gonna go from the west to the southwest region, Bobby, and, uh, tell us, tell us what you saw, um, there in the southwest.

[00:21:29] Bobby Holland: Yeah. This was, uh, one of the crazier results, um, regionally, uh, because we saw historic declines in quarterly, uh, 21.2% and yearly, 40.1% in shipment volumes declines, but.

[00:21:45] Bobby Holland: This region also had the highest gains in spend, uh, 7.3% quarterly and or quarter over quarter and 6% year over year. So again, when you look at some of the, the, the, the factors that could have contributed to that, we're looking at the bizarre weather that occurred where places in the south. In the southwest we're, you know, seeing, you know, not just a snow storm, but you know, prolonged winter weather that they're definitely not prepared for.

[00:22:15] Bobby Holland: But then also, so that leaves it with the potential, with all of the things that were going on, um, as well as, you know, some of the cross border activity, all of that's going on, it just meant that whatever ship, whatever ship freights were, whatever freight shipments were there. Yeah. Were extremely expensive to ship.

[00:22:34] Bobby Holland: So. Again, just a, an interesting thing that we're gonna be watching, you know, quarters going forward, just to see if that was an anomaly or

[00:22:44] Scott W. Luton: that's what we saw. And when Bobby Holland says he's gonna be watching something, I'm gonna tell you he's got not just one pulse. That's right. Binoculars, four figures on the pulse.

[00:22:54] Scott W. Luton: Uh, Jason, when it comes to the Southwest, uh, your thoughts.

[00:22:59] Jason Miller: Yeah, kind, kind of what Bobby said, you know, when you get a, when you get a reading that's, you know, a little abnormal, um, I think you intentionally. Go for more of a conservative approach and say, okay, we're not gonna read that much into it. And try to sort of step back and see what's, um, what's taking place.

[00:23:18] Jason Miller: Um, and then it also becomes very important to think about what are some of the key shippers, um, you know, within that region that could help explain some of these dynamics. And so what I would say is anytime you get one of those readings that may not, you know, may be a little odd, you just say, okay, you know.

[00:23:35] Jason Miller: We unfor since covid weird things happen. Seasonality factors don't follow, have, do not follow their typical pattern. I am curious if a little bit of it could be a late, let's say a later produce season, you know, coming outta AZ and things of that sort. Hmm.

[00:23:51] Scott W. Luton: Interesting. We'll see what the, uh, second quarter and, uh, then the summer holds, uh, to that point, uh, to the end.

[00:23:58] Scott W. Luton: Uh, tan, when we talk about the southwest, uh, your observation or two.

[00:24:03] Tandreia Bellamy: I went and I tried to research a couple of different ways and just really could not come up with any consensus across the various data points. Trust U.S. Bank immensely, but just wanted to see what other information was out there and as engineers.

[00:24:20] Tandreia Bellamy: Um. And other people who have very logical thought processes and backgrounds. So far today I've heard weird, odd, and crazy, so I'm exactly sure what is going on with the Southwest. Now

[00:24:36] Scott W. Luton: that is a great observation and I think a great way even further to describe, uh, not only the first quarter, but the commentary on the first quarter.

[00:24:44] Scott W. Luton: Um, and, uh, let's see. I wanna add one, one nugget here. So, the Southwest of course includes the, the big market and the big state of Texas, uh, manufacturing, big manufacturing producer. Get this from the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. And again, folks, we're trying to bridge, not only are we gonna dive into first quarter, but we're kind of bridging, uh, from first quarter in the second quarter.

[00:25:04] Scott W. Luton: So we get a sense of not only where we've been, but where we are now and where we're headed. Get this. Texas manufacturing activity, uh, continued to grow modestly in April, right the start of second quarter. Uh, however new orders dropped 20 points. And this second one may not surprise me by raw materials price index.

[00:25:22] Scott W. Luton: The reading jumped 11 points, which is the highest reading since mid 2022. Those raw materials, uh, input prices. So we'll see where we go from here. All right, we are gonna go from the southwest to the Midwest region. The Midwest region. So, uh, Bobby, uh, what are, what'd you see going on first quarter in the Midwest?

[00:25:46] Bobby Holland: Well, the Midwest was affected by softer manufacturing output. A drop in housing starts and this region, you know, this region, big impact from that. Uh, so it led to the second straight quarter with declines in yearly and quarterly shipments and spend, uh, they weren't, they were, you know, not as 6.9% quarter over quarter in shipments.

[00:26:09] Bobby Holland: Uh, 5.5% quarter over quarter in spend. So. They weren't plunges, but they, you know, certainly are not inspiring numbers right now.

[00:26:19] Scott W. Luton: Yep. Um, all right. So, Jason Midwest, what'd you see?

[00:26:25] Jason Miller: Uh, it was a horrible winter here, so that does not surprise me at all that the housing star piece would've certainly been weaker.

[00:26:33] Jason Miller: And again, the auto plants, you had a combination of, um, new Year's Day falling in the middle of the week, and quite a few plants just decided, Hey, we're just not gonna bring folks back. Um. And so that cut into some of the January volume and then again, you hit the terrible weather that really pulled down auto production in January.

[00:26:52] Jason Miller: So none of, none of this surprises me given how Tide Midwest output is to the, um, health of the auto sector. Yep. Good

[00:26:59] Scott W. Luton: thoughts there? Uh, Tandreia, the Midwest, uh, your thoughts?

[00:27:05] Tandreia Bellamy: My thoughts are, I think we need to have a meteorologist on staff because weather has been mentioned. Across the board and you know, with contingency planning and everything else, sometimes that is overlooked, the impact.

[00:27:19] Tandreia Bellamy: And we say we have winter every year. Well, you don't have snow in Florida and Louisiana every year. So, um, but really understanding all of the different inputs that can affect these things is just very, really critical, again, to decision making and planning.

[00:27:37] Scott W. Luton: Well said, well said. I'll tell you. Uh, we do need to have a staff meteorologist here at supply chain.

[00:27:42] Scott W. Luton: Now we're gonna look into it. That's a great idea. Tandreia. Um, alright. So Bobby, Jason and Ra, I wanna call one thing out. Housing is always important, uh, in, in, in every single, uh, U.S. Bank Freight Payment Index. And there's a great, um, some, uh, factoids I came across earlier. Now this is, according to this, is housing a snapshot of housing in.

[00:28:03] Scott W. Luton: March for a stretch of March from the US Census Bureau. Now get this for Mar the month of March. Nationally building permits. Were slightly down year over year. In fact, on this little snapshot, you see, um, uh, permits starting to go down below, starts and completions. And of course, permits is, is a forward looking snapshot perhaps of where the housing industry is going.

[00:28:24] Scott W. Luton: It's a big factor in the overall economy. Of course a big factor when it comes to freight. So building permits slightly down for March, year over year. Housing starts up about 2% year over year. And housing completion's up about 4% year over year. So we'll see what, uh, that was for March. We'll see what April and the rest of second quarter brings us.

[00:28:45] Scott W. Luton: Um, alright, let's see here. We are going from the Midwest. Here's a, here's a brighter, um, uh, region, I think one of the brightest regions in this edition, and that is the Northeast. So Bobby, what did we see there in the Northeast region?

[00:29:02] Bobby Holland: Well, usually when we talk about the Northeast region, we talk about, uh, consumer spending.

[00:29:06] Bobby Holland: Uh, it's a very dense region, uh, small region punching above its weight. Uh, size wise, uh, strong retail sales. And uptick in import volumes actually helped give us some good numbers for the northeast. Uh, 3.6% quarter over quarter, uh, up in shipments and 4.1% in spend. Uh, and then also annually, 2.1% up in spend and 2.3%, uh, I'm sorry, and 2.1% in shipments and 2.3% in spend.

[00:29:42] Bobby Holland: So, uh, very solid, um, very solid quarter for the Northeast region.

[00:29:48] Scott W. Luton: Uh, so that's good news and I love good news. There's always some good news if you go, uh, seek again. I think. Uh, Jason, what'd you see going on in the northeast?

[00:29:57] Jason Miller: You know what, like Bobby mentioned, retail sales we're pretty strong in the quarter.

[00:30:01] Jason Miller: If you look at the. The Philadelphia Feds, um, uh, manufacturing data was very strong at the start of the quarter, especially January. They had a phenomenal, um, new order reading. It was like a positive 41. And so part of this could be regional manufacturing composition as well. Like I mentioned, the chemical sector's been doing very well in the US so far this year based on the industrial production data and the northeast bats disproportionately for that industry.

[00:30:29] Jason Miller: Yep.

[00:30:30] Scott W. Luton: Uh, alright, so Tandreia, I can't wait to hear. Uh, I love Bobby and Jason's take on the Northeast. I can't wait to hear your observation here.

[00:30:40] Tandreia Bellamy: You know, one of the things that was a call out in the payment index from the Northeast was that shippers had to pay more to have. Part of that was simply do to freight, more freight being transported.

[00:30:54] Tandreia Bellamy: But in this, when you talk about shippers having to pay more to have freight move, one of the things that we're gonna need to keep an eye on is we're starting to have smaller freight companies that are going outta business. Um, one of the ones that was recently was LTI, about 300. Trucks, 250 drivers, but as we start to see smaller freight companies exiting the market, we could end up with a capacity concern, even though overall freight is down.

[00:31:27] Tandreia Bellamy: So again, something to keep an eye on.

[00:31:29] Scott W. Luton: Yeah, that's excellent. Call out, uh, potential capacity crunch in the months. Hit. Uh, alright, so one quick, uh, let's see. I wanna. Retail, of course is mentioned all regions and of course nationally. This comes from C-N-B-C-N-R-F, national Retail Federation Retail Monitoring.

[00:31:47] Scott W. Luton: This is for April, 2025. Uh, and I think Jason and or Bobby both spoke to this Toto total retail sales. And this excludes automobiles and gasoline, uh, for April, 2025, up 0.72% month over month. Up 6.76% year over year. Now again, that excludes automotive and gasoline, but speaking of automotive, um, CNBC shared that auto sales 'cause folks, you know, they're getting at, getting ahead of, uh, the tariff impact auto sales up 5.3% in March.

[00:32:24] Scott W. Luton: And early numbers for April seem to be promising. So we'll see. We'll see if that, that, uh, was only tariff related or anything else in the works there. Um, alright, Bobby, Jason and Tandreia, we are going to talk about the southeast now, the southeast region. So Bobby, what do we see in the southeast?

[00:32:47] Bobby Holland: Uh, Southeast, uh, as we again are aware of where the atypical winter storms.

[00:32:53] Bobby Holland: Modest retail sales and then flat manufacturing, um, impacts to this region. Uh, so we saw, um, 1.7, uh, 1.7% drop quarter over quarter in shipments and a 7% year, uh, quarter over quarter in spend. Uh, so again, quarterly numbers, uh, definitely feel like the weather, uh, 'cause again, not only was it. Atypical weather, but it was atypical for the duration.

[00:33:19] Bobby Holland: Uh, it wasn't just a hit or miss, you know, it lasted for a few days. And, and we know that that's going to impact, um, shippers and, and carrier's ability to, they can't just go make up the difference once the weather changes. So

[00:33:33] Scott W. Luton: big impact there. Excellent. Call out weather again. Tandreia weather again. All right.

[00:33:38] Scott W. Luton: So, uh, Jason, uh, the southeast, your observations there.

[00:33:43] Jason Miller: Yeah. So again, um, you know, we keep talking about weather so much, but I, I know I've got good friends down at Auburn and the extent of the winter weather, you know, down there was certainly, I think, surprising to folks. So. And again, you've got an increasing an economy that is increasingly tied to the auto sector down there.

[00:34:05] Jason Miller: And so again, slower activity in the auto industry in general was, um, a little bit of a tailwind.

[00:34:11] Scott W. Luton: Okay.

[00:34:11] Jason Miller: Or is a headwind. I apologize.

[00:34:13] Scott W. Luton: Hey, Jason. I get those confused all the time. Headwinds and tailwinds. Uh, and yes, there was a shock to the system with what the weather delivered a lot in, uh, throughout the south, uh, earlier this year.

[00:34:23] Scott W. Luton: It's a great call out and kudos to your, a big shout out to your friends down there. At, uh, Auburn, the home of the Tigers and I guess War Eagle two. Two mascots down in Auburn. Um, alright. Tandreia, home base for us, we both call Metro Atlanta home. Uh, your thoughts on what we see here in the southeast,

[00:34:40] Tandreia Bellamy: you know, retail sales has been a call out or a couple of the regions, um, a positive but one region, um, negative or flat in other regions from a southeast standpoint, we're gonna really have to keep our eye on that as it relates to tourism.

[00:34:56] Tandreia Bellamy: There's, uh, quite a bit of news that's out about the number of people from other countries who are choosing not to come to the US to, um, partake to be tourists. I was recently in Orlando and it was very noticeable. Um, and as we look at, at retail sales, especially coming into the summer, you usually have an explosion of, of tourism.

[00:35:23] Tandreia Bellamy: And if people aren't coming, then they're not buying.

[00:35:26] Scott W. Luton: That's right. Excellent point. Excellent point. Uh, and I was in Orlando as well. I was at Gartner, uh, supply chain symposium last week. Had a wonderful time and thankfully it wasn't 102 degrees and it really humid. It was a nice, uh, 80 degrees. So, uh, Florida cooperated, uh, with the folks down there.

[00:35:43] Scott W. Luton: Um, okay. I've got, uh, so Jason, Jason and Tandreia. I'm about to get a glimpse, uh, if your crystal ball is working, both of y'all, of what we may see ahead. Uh, Jason, in a more broader sense for you and Tandreia, um, uh, what are you, if you, if you had to share a couple things to look for in the months ahead, what would that be?

[00:36:06] Scott W. Luton: Jason?

[00:36:08] Jason Miller: Yeah, so the data I'm watching the most closely right now 'cause it's fairly high frequency, is the um, data from the Fed Reserve banks in terms of manufacturing activity. Um, you know, we've already mentioned, for example, the Dallas Fed data that comes out towards the end of the month. The New York Fed will release their data here on May 15th already for the month of May, and so I'll be watching that very closely because historically the new orders, especially if you average across the regional banks, tends to be a fairly good pro, uh, approximation for how the trucking sector is going to do in terms of demand.

[00:36:47] Jason Miller: So I'm gonna be watching that, um, quite closely in terms of sort of a leading indicator, you already mentioned vehicle sales. That tends to be, um, a very early release. We received the April data like on May 4th or fifth or May 5th I believe it released. And so I'll be watching where to May. Vehicle sales come at, at here at early June.

[00:37:08] Jason Miller: And, you know, sort of taking things one piece at a time. Um, as the data gets released, I will be curious to see if the Fed's, uh, manufacturing data shows any slowdown, um, at all in terms of the upward momentum we were seeing, um, in March. And so we'll see how that pans out in April as well, when those data release, not, um.

[00:37:30] Jason Miller: This week.

[00:37:30] Scott W. Luton: Yep. One data point at a time. One day at a time. That's the the best way to be taking, uh, things right now. I think. Uh, appreciate your, um, your look ahead, uh, Jason. Um, alright. So Tandreia, before I get your look ahead, I wanna go back. You, uh, the weather's come up a couple times here and Tandreia, you know, here in Georgia as we've seen some interesting snow weather in, in the last couple years.

[00:37:54] Scott W. Luton: We, I think we've all made the joke, I don't know, a thousand times that, uh, for the whole state we've got two salt trucks. Uh, but Tandreia, I actually looked it up. And the state of Georgia, you be, we might be surprised we got 401 snowplows. Who would've thunked that? And better yet, 31 brine tankers that has five, uh, a 5,000 gallon capacity.

[00:38:17] Scott W. Luton: So there's, there's a, a bonafide fleet. We'll see, uh, hopefully we won't have to have that for a long time. But Tandreia, uh, with the freight market moving ahead, uh, I appreciate your call out for potentially a capacity crunch. What else would you suggest folks, um, look out for?

[00:38:37] Tandreia Bellamy: Not necessarily specifically for freight, but one of the things that people may not be fully aware of is with all of the change in tariffs. Um, how much it's changed, how it's changed by country, that that has a pretty significant impact on brokerage operations. So you may need to plan for slowdowns or packages being delayed as the brokerage operations are fighting to keep up with exactly what they should be collecting for duties and taxes.

[00:39:11] Scott W. Luton: Hmm. That is, uh, a great, another great call out man. Y'all have been on the ball here today, Jason, Bobby, and Tandreia. What an outstanding, um, uh, show. Uh, Jason. Uh, as we start to kind of come down, uh, the home stretch here, uh, I want to call out your excellent work, excellent work in particular, I engage and learn from you the most on LinkedIn.

[00:39:36] Scott W. Luton: And I think I'm not alone, and I think I've got a, a, a little graphic here. This was, I stole this from, I think earlier this morning. And I love, you know, some, some subjects are really serious. Subjects are a little bit more lighthearted. This one, I think you've been asked a lot about the upcoming toy season, uh, for holidays, right?

[00:39:55] Scott W. Luton: And. As you always do, uh, you put a data-driven, uh, informed approach here, and so the, I bet you've got, I can't imagine your PowerPoint decks. You must have a thousand different, uh, charts just for this year alone. But quick comment, Jason. Uh, based on, on this research here, quick comment of, of, uh, what the toy season, uh, for this year's holiday season may look like.

[00:40:21] Jason Miller: Yeah, so when, when you think about what we have is typically toy imports peak in September and October. But usually the orders would already have been placed by now. And so what I think we'll be seeing is a rush to get those items here that are the best sellers for which the importers have the most confidence for.

[00:40:42] Jason Miller: Same for Christmas items, it's gonna be focusing on best sellers, as well as the goods that can be produced immediately. And so what that really means is more than anything, is as consumers don't expect the degree of product variety. This fall, um, what we're doing are Christmas shopping that we're normally used to, because right now the goal is to get the stuff here that can be brought here.

[00:41:05] Jason Miller: In some ways, it's gonna have a feeling a little akin to the back half of 2020. Where we had widespread shutdowns in the start of the year, then we kick things back on. It was crazy levels of demand. And we're not anticipating that. That's the big difference is we're not gonna have surging year over year imports.

[00:41:25] Jason Miller: Yeah. But the, the short time horizons to get goods in the West coast ports are especially set to benefit from shipments for China because it's, you know, a week shorter transit than if you're going to the or Gulf Coast. And right now every day counts. 'cause you've got 90 days to get this stuff in before potentially the 30% turns into 50 or 60% tariffs.

[00:41:47] Scott W. Luton: Terrific. Uh, appreciate your thoughts and your data-driven thoughts. And folks, I'm telling you, you want to connect with or follow, uh, Dr. Jason Miller across social. This is a regular. This is, uh, and I use this term, I call myself a supply chain nerd, and hopefully you, I think you embrace that as well. Uh, Jason Miller, and folks, that's, that's who we learn from.

[00:42:09] Scott W. Luton: Uh, so Jason, if folks don't find you and follow you on LinkedIn, how else can folks connect with you?

[00:42:16] Jason Miller: Yeah, just, uh, you can find my email real easily. Michigan State makes it straightforward. Just, uh, throw my name and MSU into Google and I'll be the first thing that comes up. And the email address is right there.

[00:42:27] Scott W. Luton: And it is the Eli Broad, uh, supply chain management program. Right. Eli Broad. I had to learn, oh, I'm learning a new pronunciation all the time, and that's when I had to work on a little bit, Jason. Yep. Broad as in road. The broad as in road. That's right. Great. Excellent program. Always atop the rankings, uh, for supply chain programs.

[00:42:47] Scott W. Luton: Um, okay, Bobby, uh, and Ra, I'm coming to you in just a second for your patented key takeaway. I. From the last hour, uh, as we've had the, uh, hall of supply chain justice between Tandreia, Bobby, and Jason here. Uh, Bobby. First thing we want to make sure to do is encourage folks, don't take our word for it. Download the uh, Q1 2025 U.S. Bank Freight Payment Index down.

[00:43:13] Scott W. Luton: You can go to freight.U.S. Bank.com or even more convenient. You can check out the link that we just, we, we've been dropping. But beyond that, Bobby, how can folks uh, connect with you? Email address

[00:43:25] Bobby Holland: bobby.Holland@usbank.com. I'm also available through LinkedIn. I lag a little bit on responses. Responses in LinkedIn admittedly just 'cause of busy but freight Do.

[00:43:37] Bobby Holland: Uh, bobbyHolland@usbank.com. Bobby dot Holland.

[00:43:43] Scott W. Luton: Bobby Holland, make sure you get that.in folks. Uh, if you want to be with the, or, chat with the one and only. And again, great work Bobby, as always, really appreciate, uh, the collection of thoughts here. And Jason, I thought you started to say one of my favorite quotes I got from Annie Griffith Show.

[00:44:00] Scott W. Luton: Everyone talks about the weather, but no one does anything about it. I thought that's where you were going, going a second ago. Uh, but maybe next time. Uh, alright, so Tandreia Bellamy. Uh, we have come a long way, uh, in an informative session. I've learned from all three of y'all. I appreciate your expertise and your observations, but if you had to pull out one thing, one key takeaway from the last hour, uh, talking here with uh, uh, you and Bobby and Jason, what would that be?

[00:44:26] Tandreia Bellamy: The importance of multiple information sources. There is just so much going on right now and being informed is more important than ever.

[00:44:37] Scott W. Luton: That is right. That is right. Especially, um, the velocity. And that velocity is not gonna slow down, uh, ever. And I'm, I'm always hesitant to use the word never or ever either word, but, uh, I think the velocity is only gonna increase.

[00:44:51] Scott W. Luton: Tandreia, we got to be informed with a variety of sources like never before. Uh, all right folks. Hopefully y'all have enjoyed this last hour, I tell ya. Um, really appreciate the opportunity to connect with Bobby and Jason and Tandreia. I want to thank 'em all. Bobby Holland, director for Freight Business Analytics at U.S. Bank.

[00:45:10] Scott W. Luton: Bobby, thanks for being here today. As always. Thank you and joined today by Dr. Jason Miller, Eli, broad endowed professor of supply chain management at Michigan State University. Go Spartans, go Sparty, whatever the right terminology is. But Jason, a pleasure to have you here as well. I. All right. Thank you for having me.

[00:45:31] Scott W. Luton: You bet, folks, make sure you connect and follow across social there. And again, Tandreia Bellamy, uh, I appreciate, uh, you being here with me as we kind of decis deciphered, uh, what's been going on across the domestic freight market. Thanks for being here, Tandreia. Thank you. Um, alright folks. You got homework though.

[00:45:50] Scott W. Luton: You got homework? Take something you heard here today. 'cause we, we got a truckload of takeaways. Take something you heard here today and put it into action. Share it with the team. Right? Um, lots of opportunities to, uh, transform the global supply chain industry both today and tomorrow, but it's, it's driven by deeds, not words.

[00:46:10] Scott W. Luton: All that said, uh, on behalf of the entire team here at Supply Chain Now, Scott Luton challenge. You do good, give forward, be the change that's needed. We'll see you next time. Right back here on Supply Chain Now. Thanks everybody.

[00:46:22] Narrator: Join the Supply Chain Now community. For more supply chain perspectives, news and innovation, check out supplychainnow.com.

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