Welcome to Furniture Industry News.

I'm here with you on Friday, June 27, 2025, bringing you the latest updates from across our industry.

Today we're covering some significant challenges that are affecting everything from consumer confidence to supply chains, plus some encouraging signs from major retailers.

Let's dive right in starting with consumer sentiment.

We're seeing some concerning trends that furniture professionals need to understand.

Consumer confidence took a sharp dive in June, dropping by more than five points according to the Conference Board.

This erased almost half of the gains we saw in May.

What's particularly troubling is that the expectations index fell to 69, which is well below the 80 threshold that typically signals a recession ahead.

The decline wasn't limited to one group either.

All age groups and nearly all income levels showed weakening confidence.

Consumers are less positive about current business conditions and job availability has weakened for six straight months.

Looking ahead six months, fewer people expect business conditions to improve and more are worried about job prospects.

What's driving this pessimism?

Tariffs remain the top concern on consumers minds, with many worried about their negative impact on the economy and prices.

Inflation and high prices are also major worries, though there were slightly more mentions of easing inflation compared to last month.

The good news is that consumers 12 month inflation expectations cooled to 6% from 6.4% in May.

For our industry specifically, this translates to some mixed signals in purchasing plans.

Home buying intentions declined while car purchasing plans stayed at their highest level since December.

More consumers are undecided about big ticket purchases overall, which suggests they're taking a wait and see approach.

Appliance buying plans were slightly up, but electronics plans were down.

This consumer uncertainty is playing out in broader economic expectations as well.

A new survey from AD Taxi shows that more than 2/3 of Americans expect the economy to turn negative within the next six to 12 months.

21% are predicting a mild slowdown, while 20% expect a classic recession.

Even more concerning, 27% are anticipating stagflation with increased prices and inflation.

The response from consumers is predictable but concerning for furniture retailers, three quarters of adults plan to rethink their spending, with six out of 10 planning actual budget cuts.

High ticket non essential categories will be first on the chopping block, with 71% of respondents saying they'll delay or cancel purchases of new homes and vehicles.

Nearly nine out of 10Americans expect to change their shopping approach, with 27% planning to focus only on essentials and another 27% doubling down on finding the best deals.

This shift in consumer behavior is already showing up in retail performance.

At Macy's Combined home sales at both Macy's and Bloomingdale's stores showed another first quarter decline, though the decline rate did fall under double digits for the first time in a while, that's actually an improvement compared to the same periods in 2024 and early 2025.

Macy's executives noted better performance in soft home categories, with sheets and towels improving as quarters progressed.

Their big ticket home business also did relatively better, with CEO Tony Spring highlighting that they have a good mattress business at both banners.

However, it's worth noting that Macy's operated 59 fewer department store locations at the end of the first quarter compared to the same period last year as part of their plan to close 150 underperforming stores by 2026.

Despite modest traffic gains during the first quarter, both chains saw weaker averages per store.

Moving to the manufacturing side, the uncertainty we're seeing with consumers is creating real operational challenges for furniture makers.

Manufacturers are having to adjust their forecasting and timing of shipments more than ever, just trying to manage what's in their control.

While tariff policies remain unclear, at a recent logistics conference, industry executives painted a picture of day to day uncertainty.

Michael Williams from American Woodcrafters noted that as a smaller case goods importer, tariff impacts hit them particularly hard.

Scott Prilleman from Hooker Furnishings emphasized the need for strong partnerships with vendors, customers and even attorneys to navigate the current environment.

The rapid shifts in tariff amounts, targeted countries and timelines make compliance particularly difficult.

Patricia Leonard from Roh Furniture explained how challenging this is for a build to order company.

When tariffs on Chinese fabrics jumped to 145%, factories stopped producing entirely, only to restart when rates came back down.

Since you can't change supply chains overnight, this creates major communication challenges with customers.

Companies are responding by strengthening relationships with tried and true partners rather rather than shopping around for the lowest rates.

As Prilamon put it, if you're getting the lowest rate, you're going to get bumped.

When capacity gets tight, smaller companies will have to take their hits and hope to see through the other eye, since they don't have the negotiating power of larger manufacturers.

The industry is also adapting to serve new channels beyond traditional retail, including online sellers and designers.

This requires new approaches to logistics and delivery, often involving specialized carriers and white glove providers.

Many companies are developing interactive software portals for the design trade, which has become increasingly important, especially at upper, middle and higher price points.

Looking ahead, there's skepticism about whether tariffs will actually bring manufacturing jobs back to the United States.

The handwork and finishing involved in quality furniture, combined with labor availability and production costs make large scale domestic production challenging.

As one executive noted, you can't bring back factory work if no one wants to work in a factory.

Adding to supply chain concerns, cargo theft has reached all time highs.

In 2024, cargo crimes increased 27% from 2023, with annual losses expected to rise another 22% by the end of 2025.

The value of stolen merchandise reached over a billion dollars, with the average individual theft valued at more than $202,000.

Criminals are exploiting cargo delivery through identity theft, fraudulent pickups and cyber enabled logistics manipulation.

They're leveraging weaknesses in common business technologies like voiceover, Internet protocol and GPS systems, combined with business email compromises to reroute high value goods to black markets.

For furniture companies, this means implementing stronger security measures throughout the supply chain.

This includes thoroughly vetting transportation partners, screening employees, training staff on theft prevention, and using technology like tracking systems and advanced security seals.

Despite these challenges, the industry continues to adapt and find opportunities.

Companies are strengthening partnerships, diversifying channels and investing in technology to better serve customers and manage risks.

That wraps up today's update from the furniture industry.

These are certainly challenging times, with consumer confidence wavering, supply chain disruptions continuing and new security threats emerging.

But as always, our industry has shown resilience and adaptability in the face of change.

If you found today's episode helpful, please subscribe to Furniture Industry News to stay up to date with the latest developments affecting our industry.

Thanks for listening and we'll see you next time.