Central bank digital currency, CBDCs. Trump has just
Speaker:said he's not having CBDCs. General stable coins
Speaker:in the way that they exist right now, them being regulated, that's a sort
Speaker:Mean coins, are they worth putting your money into?
Speaker:So you really have this really unique instrument that I believe is tying culturally
Speaker:how important is this particular thing right now. As much as it doesn't make
Speaker:sense, we've never been able to sort of bridge what's happening in our social lives
Speaker:and culturally what's relevant right now to something of value financially. In
Speaker:10 years time it's gonna either seem super obvious that yes of
Speaker:seen 15 states in the US who have indicated about
Speaker:Can you risk not having even 0.5% of something in Bitcoin? Like
Speaker:I think it's so big that the risk is having no exposure at
Speaker:all. I'm Matthew Fraser and this
Speaker:is Crypto Collective. After making millions with Amazon and
Speaker:e-commerce, I realized that if I was starting again today,
Speaker:crypto would be my first choice. I'm here to help
Speaker:you take your first steps and build real wealth. Ready
Speaker:to set yourself up for life? Let's go! Welcome
Speaker:to Crypto Collective. My name is Matthew Fraser. And today's episode,
Speaker:I've got a really special guest. It's Pav from SwiftX. He's
Speaker:the market analyst there. He decides and tells everyone about
Speaker:the market trends and what's happening in the crypto space. Welcome,
Speaker:Awesome. Awesome. So good to have you here. And
Speaker:I think it really is going to be great because we're going to be able to
Speaker:dive deep into some of the insights that you have having sort
Speaker:of the back-end knowledge and the analytics within SwiftX, one
Speaker:of the Australian crypto exchanges. And just as, what
Speaker:should I say, for full disclosure, I also do
Speaker:use SwiftX for my trading as well. So
Speaker:Pav, can I start off perhaps with some of the recent
Speaker:announcements. I think that's probably the hottest topics. We've just seen Trump
Speaker:inaugurated. He's done a range of things. I'll
Speaker:I'm Obviously,
Speaker:we've known for quite some time, Bitcoin and crypto has been a big part of
Speaker:Donald Trump's administration's political campaign. And
Speaker:I guess it really hasn't left much to sort of
Speaker:be, you know, not happy about,
Speaker:I guess, to find lack of a better word. We've seen a lot of clarity along
Speaker:that there will be some sort of legislation or regulatory body framework coming likely
Speaker:within the next 12 months is what they're gunning for. I think there's like
Speaker:180 days for the current team that's being put
Speaker:together with Cynthia Lumens heading it to
Speaker:basically put forward a legislative or framework that they can
Speaker:basically put Finally, some sort
Speaker:of regulations around crypto in the US, and you hear Donald Trump himself saying
Speaker:they want the US to be the home of crypto.
Speaker:So they see it, I guess, as an opportunity to make more money. We
Speaker:know Donald Trump, if anything, is a businessman. So I
Speaker:mean, obviously, he sees this as an emerging market space. You
Speaker:know, there's been a lot of things hindering or holding the market back for
Speaker:quite some time in terms of being able to allow for that next
Speaker:wave of adoption. You know, a lot of people have pointed to the outgoing chair
Speaker:of the Securities and Exchanges Commission,
Speaker:SEC, Gary Gensler, as being the prime reason why We've
Speaker:got lawsuit after lawsuit against crypto products. We're now seeing
Speaker:that whole regime shift take place right now. And I
Speaker:think it was a few days before his exit, we saw even Trump
Speaker:launch his own meme coin. I mean, these things are just happening
Speaker:so quick and so fast that it's really sort
Speaker:of taking our breath away in terms of where we're expecting the market to
Speaker:have been by this stage in terms of maturity. But I
Speaker:think another big piece of the puzzle that sort of was lifted recently was
Speaker:some of the legislative restrictions on US banks being
Speaker:able to custody and hold crypto assets. That's now been removed.
Speaker:So it's really hard to sort of visualize what this whole
Speaker:industry is going to look like, you know, the next one to two years. We
Speaker:saw the ETFs doing amazing things for just the broader adoption of crypto with
Speaker:the institutions. But now, you know, obviously we're going to move
Speaker:into probably more retail heavy focus moving forward. You know, those
Speaker:consumer protection guidelines, it looks like there's going to be a lot of clarity around them
Speaker:at this stage, unless we, for some reason, see this whole momentum
Speaker:stall for some reason. But there's a very clear direction
Speaker:that there's going to be more answers than just random lawsuits
Speaker:being thrown around for the first time in a long time. So I think that's a
Speaker:breath of fresh air for all of us. I imagine like yourself, you know, we've been in crypto for a
Speaker:Well, I've only been in since, I've known about crypto
Speaker:for many, many years. I've only been in since 2022, funny
Speaker:enough, so not that long. Although I've accumulated
Speaker:what would be considered for most people a fairly small fortune.
Speaker:Yeah, that's always good. 60% Bitcoin,
Speaker:20, 25% Solana, and then a range of other altcoins, AI, et
Speaker:cetera, in that sort of 20%. So that's kind of where
Speaker:I sit. But, you know, one thing that we know
Speaker:with, I mean, Bitcoin's a journey, and I'm forever learning,
Speaker:and I'm just going through this phase right now, I'm just sucking in so many books, just
Speaker:from a range of different people, any block I can find on Bitcoin, or
Speaker:crypto in general. Can I just bring it back to Pav with one of
Speaker:these particular initiatives that Trump has, he
Speaker:hasn't said it's coming out, but Eric Trump, his son, said
Speaker:about two days ago that they're talking about removing capital gains
Speaker:tax on cryptos that are, I guess, made in America, you
Speaker:could say, specifically Solana, XRP,
Speaker:HBAR, and they even threw in Trump coin.
Speaker:I think that's made in America on this line of blockchain. So
Speaker:how do you think that's going to impact the
Speaker:It's going to be very interesting and it definitely,
Speaker:I guess you could say, is a bit of a mover and shaker type of approach
Speaker:to something that's had no clarity to almost offering a
Speaker:benefit to looking at this asset class if you're looking
Speaker:for some sort of risk exposure for your portfolio, some volatility. Look,
Speaker:it's very interesting. You could say like once again, you know, it sounds
Speaker:like, you know, he's obviously got his own coin and he wants to make it
Speaker:tax free when he's on the way out, which could be a reality of this all.
Speaker:But, you know, if you're a, let's say someone actually trying to
Speaker:build something, you know, in crypto, you look at the different jurisdictions that
Speaker:are around the globe. there are a lot
Speaker:of places that are already sort of 0% sort of havens from a capital gains
Speaker:perspective because they're just looking to bring the industry towards them, right? So
Speaker:if anything for me, it just makes the US more of
Speaker:an attractive offering for some of the more innovative producers
Speaker:and sort of tech leaders to come back to the US or maybe migrate
Speaker:over to, you know, what you consider a more triple A or double A
Speaker:reputation wise of a jurisdiction. But
Speaker:look, it seems very colluded that you'd have your own
Speaker:coin as well at the same time and you have it tax-free. So I
Speaker:The fine print does say not investment type of
Speaker:coin. I think it says not for making money, but
Speaker:you can buy the meme coin. But Solana,
Speaker:let's say Solana, XRP and HBAR, which is
Speaker:some of the other ones that were highlighted. Do you think though about having this
Speaker:no capital gains tax that we would see a higher price and
Speaker:I think it would have some impact on the underlying demand,
Speaker:let's say for sure. Because obviously the race everyone's concentrating right
Speaker:now is Solana vs. ETH, which at this stage it
Speaker:seems like ETH hasn't really caught up at all at any point in
Speaker:time. But again, yeah, if there's going to be more and more developers
Speaker:migrating across because they know there's going to be concessions for both their
Speaker:users and for them as developers to move towards a chain that, you
Speaker:know, again, they're looking to reinforce that sort of American exceptionalism,
Speaker:even in the digital space. Look, I think it's going to have some impact. What
Speaker:it's going to be, we won't know, but it definitely To
Speaker:me, it just goes to show that they have an agenda and it's
Speaker:US first across everything. And it just goes to show
Speaker:that they're ready to set some pretty bold legislation
Speaker:and rules in place to favor their own.
Speaker:What do you see that from the analytics that you see
Speaker:regarding Bitcoin? Because some people are saying that,
Speaker:you know, Trump's in now. The price, I mean, the price
Speaker:went down yesterday, essentially for us, not
Speaker:necessarily because of Bitcoin per se, but for other, the
Speaker:other things, I think, what's it called? SeekPeak or PeakSeek or something, some
Speaker:Thank you, that one. Which I've also heard some whispers that
Speaker:it may now be banned in the US.
Speaker:But when we're talking about Bitcoin though, and Trump's now
Speaker:in, and people are sort of, they're a bit concerned that now the
Speaker:price isn't pumped, right? What do you see behind
Speaker:Look, a lot of, if you remove, I guess, a lot
Speaker:of the noise, you know, obviously the political tailwinds
Speaker:and sort of headwinds that you can sort of see shifting, you know,
Speaker:we've got this, you know, exiting of an anti-crypto regime to
Speaker:now a very positive, like there's definitely tailwinds there. But
Speaker:if we look back at what's actually happened to Bitcoin and its price and its history, you
Speaker:know, it is tied and correlated very strongly to global liquidity.
Speaker:You know, many, many commentators and analysts sort of point towards these similar
Speaker:indicators, you know, the value of money. You know, we all look to Bitcoin, you
Speaker:know, once you learn about Bitcoin, you learn about its inherent property is that it
Speaker:holds its value, right? It's not inflationary. Like there's new coins being issued,
Speaker:but there's no artificial dilution of
Speaker:its supply. So that is our monetary system. So we'll
Speaker:go through periods where the monetary system is inflationary or
Speaker:deflationary. Like you look at somewhere like China right now, they're deflationary. So they're trying
Speaker:to stimulate as much as they can their economy just through stimulus. And
Speaker:then you have the US. We went through, let's just look at the COVID era. Obviously,
Speaker:a lot of people finding themselves out
Speaker:of work, they had to basically inject a whole bunch of money into the system, the
Speaker:most we've ever seen in a short period of time. And as a result, we've
Speaker:seen inflation go crazy these last three, four years, right? So, you know, everyone's food
Speaker:bill went from $200 a week to 350 bucks a week, right?
Speaker:Like that was a reality of what we've seen over the last five years. Everyone's
Speaker:suffering, right? And that basically
Speaker:sort of, you know, it sort of attributes what we see the valuation of
Speaker:Bitcoin at any given time. It is definitely tied into these broader
Speaker:macro prices because at the end of the day, you can value a house in
Speaker:dollars or bricks of gold or Bitcoin. It's just the instrument
Speaker:you're using to compare like for like, you know, it's what's the underlying value
Speaker:there. So, you know, we sort of still Our analysis shows
Speaker:us that the global liquidity factors, the three major economies that
Speaker:really drive it are the US, China, and Japan. The
Speaker:US really hasn't started their regime of easing. So we're still
Speaker:in a relatively strict environment where they're not spending
Speaker:or enabling large amounts of funds to be borrowed for growth.
Speaker:And we've seen, I guess, one of the key messages in
Speaker:the Trump campaign so far has been that he's going to focus on growth, American
Speaker:exceptionalism. That comes at a price. So, you know, they're going to
Speaker:have to basically issue liquidity for that to stimulate
Speaker:growth locally. You know, all these tariffs that he talks about so they can
Speaker:produce more on shore, you know, that doesn't happen without some
Speaker:sort of help from the government to sort of help, you know, build that
Speaker:sort of economic growth and activity, specifically in the manufacturing sector.
Speaker:So I think focusing in on that specific zone, we would see
Speaker:likely monetary policy that is favorable to crypto prices moving with
Speaker:a bit more ease, as well as the US dollar that's been the strongest
Speaker:it's been since 2022, probably start to keel over a bit at
Speaker:this point in time. That would also be very positive tailwinds
Speaker:for higher prices. So I sort of get what's what's
Speaker:happened in the last two, three weeks even, crazy it's only
Speaker:been that long, seen like very classic top indicators, you know, celebrities and
Speaker:political, you know, personalities launching meme
Speaker:coins that never really seems like a bottom signal. But
Speaker:some of these more broader macro signals, like unless something goes wrong
Speaker:and they're not going to stimulate their economy, it's hard for
Speaker:Yeah, well not only that, I did see where Trump had said that
Speaker:he was going to... The question was like, you know, are you going to reduce rates? You
Speaker:just speak to the Fed and he's like, yeah. Like basically he's making
Speaker:out like he's got his finger on the discount rates button. Pretty
Speaker:A hundred percent. And this is like a great, I think this is good timing for
Speaker:this recording. We have the official funding rate update coming this
Speaker:week. So, you know, right now the market is pencilling
Speaker:and there's going to be no change to rates. Again, surprise outcomes
Speaker:drive a lot of volatility in our markets. And so, you know, one thing we're sort
Speaker:of tentatively watching is, well, what if there is a surprise rate cut? No one saw coming.
Speaker:And it is just, again, due to this new political shift. So
Speaker:these are sort of unknowns that are never priced into the market. At
Speaker:the same time, you could take away that a lot of the volatility that we're seeing in
Speaker:the market this week, while a lot of people are speculating, it's all around this sort
Speaker:of deepfake AI, not deepfake, sorry, I forgot
Speaker:the name of it as well, the Chinese AI. It
Speaker:also could just be pragmatic risk, sort
Speaker:of risk off the table. We're approaching the end of the month. We've got some pretty key announcements
Speaker:this week from a growth perspective in terms of
Speaker:data, as well as inflation, as well as interest rates. So there's
Speaker:a lot happening that may just result in just very normal sort
Speaker:of profit taking potentially or hedging activities. Chinese New Year
Speaker:as well. We just had the Lunar New Year. So that's been notorious for
Speaker:some selling activity as well. So I think it's a culmination of things. Yeah,
Speaker:overall we're still sort of positive in the short term of where
Speaker:we could be. Q1 historically has been a good period for
Speaker:Bitcoin, past halving year, so we're still expecting in the two next months
Speaker:We've seen obviously the Trump coin, the Molina coin,
Speaker:I think I got that right. We've seen Mr. Peanut coin, we've
Speaker:seen F coin, I don't want to say the word, but we've seen the F coin
Speaker:do extremely well in memes. From your side of things, why
Speaker:are people so gravitated to meme coins?
Speaker:What is the enticement there? And are they worth putting your
Speaker:Yeah, it's a very good question. It's very interesting. I think this
Speaker:will be a conversation that the understanding evolves, just
Speaker:as just the general consensus evolves towards meme coins. I know for, you
Speaker:know, if you spoke to about meme coins back in 2023 or 2022, kind of
Speaker:laughed out the door. I think it's almost like one of
Speaker:those I think sectors of the market where
Speaker:in 10 years time it's gonna either seem super obvious that yes
Speaker:of course meme coins would work or why did anyone think that's a good
Speaker:idea I just think what makes it so appealing is
Speaker:a lot of people you know as much as it doesn't make sense a lot of people can
Speaker:sometimes understand what at least this cryptocurrency is
Speaker:representing so let's take for example the Trump coin You're not necessarily investing
Speaker:in it to get exposure to Donald Trump's empire. You're more betting on
Speaker:a, you know, this is a person of influence. Other people are going to
Speaker:agree that there's a value to how much influence or power that they sort of
Speaker:have in the local geopolitical space or
Speaker:even just socially speaking. And they're going to basically invest
Speaker:in it because they see that it's a market, people can trade it. Again,
Speaker:like even just general memes, like we've had dog with hat, you know, through last year,
Speaker:we've had that particular coin that you mentioned as
Speaker:well. If it's funny enough or can capture, I
Speaker:guess, socially, culturally, what people are feeling and invested
Speaker:in just personally right now, they might be willing to invest some of their money in
Speaker:it too because it's just something of novelty. It's never
Speaker:really existed before. We've never been able to sort of bridge, I think,
Speaker:the social you know, what's happening in our social lives and
Speaker:culturally what's relevant right now to something of value financially. So
Speaker:you really have this really unique instrument that I
Speaker:believe is tying, you know, culturally how
Speaker:important is this particular thing right now. So, you know, the peanut the squirrel is
Speaker:a great example. And the whole US election has been a great example, just
Speaker:as that sort of progressed over the months and weeks, there was
Speaker:different means that were more absorbing the
Speaker:collective sort of attention at that period of time. And obviously
Speaker:the value of that happened as well. So like another great ones like MuDeng, the
Speaker:Pygmy Hippo, that was everywhere and you saw the price of that
Speaker:coin go higher, but you know, right now it's not as culturally relevant, right?
Speaker:So we're not seeing that particularly take off too well. So I think what
Speaker:it does for meme coins is two things, you know, obviously we have this,
Speaker:it seems like infinite spinning wheel of activity and just
Speaker:seeing what's relevant to the culture and the zeitgeist right
Speaker:now. But it also means if you've invested in some of these coins that
Speaker:were funny three to six months ago, they may never come back because they may never
Speaker:be in the spotlight again, right? So it really is an
Speaker:interesting landscape where I think it's harder to be relevant and hold that
Speaker:value if it is purely culturally based. But
Speaker:at the same time, it just creates a very rapidly changing environment that
Speaker:I think a lot of people might find appealing. It's just very hard
Speaker:A couple of takes on that one, Pav, because one is, I remember
Speaker:the NFT sort of saga, and
Speaker:everyone was buying the Ape Coins or the Bored Apes or something
Speaker:like that, right? And it just seemed totally insane to me that people were
Speaker:paying like, I'm sure it was six figures, multiple six
Speaker:figures, maybe even seven figures for these. just like
Speaker:the the ape which which I think you
Speaker:talked about you know in the future we'll look back and think oh that was that probably wasn't such
Speaker:a great idea I'm already looking back and thinking that was a stupid idea but
Speaker:that's because I didn't buy them either so I didn't I didn't lose
Speaker:any money didn't win any money so to speak but I think you hit
Speaker:the nail on the head though with the meme coins it's actually it's
Speaker:like a um culturally, a
Speaker:cultural novelty, like a cultural novelty
Speaker:type thing, right? People just buy into it and, oh, this is fun.
Speaker:I think to a degree, though, there's definitely a sense of I
Speaker:could put $100 into this and it could get to $100,000. So,
Speaker:I think so. I think it's everyone sort of invests for a reason, right?
Speaker:It's to pull out more than what you put in. So I think you just think about
Speaker:it like a lot of people may not be able to pull apart the performance
Speaker:of a company and understand how they're making their profits versus expenses
Speaker:and how they're raising cap to go build and expand and globalize, etc.
Speaker:So how do they value a stock? Whereas a meme coin, if
Speaker:there's a whole bunch of GIFs going around right now and you know that it's funny and it's spreading
Speaker:like wildfire with all your friends, well maybe other people would, you know, maybe
Speaker:that would represent a meme coin. And that meme coin could have some intrinsic value at
Speaker:that time and everyone buys it up. And, you know, if you get in early enough,
Speaker:the thought or the idea is that that is going to capture enough of, you
Speaker:know, the cultural mind at this point in time that more people would buy it. So
Speaker:it's sort of, It's something that I don't think makes sense
Speaker:if you try to measure it by how things have always been done, but it sort of
Speaker:provides, I think, a different way of trying to,
Speaker:I guess, get people to sort of buy into an idea
Speaker:or something that represents, in this case, like a meme. It's
Speaker:very different. But at the same time, I
Speaker:can't get it because everyone sends emojis and memes all the time. So
Speaker:I heard another take on the Trump coin though, and that was that Trump
Speaker:has now set the stage for other companies and celebrities in
Speaker:the tokenization of their personal brand. And
Speaker:so they can buy into the Nike brand, the Michael
Speaker:Jordan brand, or whatever the celebrity is, which I think is really,
Speaker:really interesting. Last sort of thing on the meme coins,
Speaker:because of your inside knowledge, everyone would want to know, well, have
Speaker:you got your ear to the ground on these things? You mentioned a couple of
Speaker:Oh, up and coming is hard. Only because like we
Speaker:talked about, well, up and coming as in like growth, because if
Speaker:it is growth, it's... Yeah, I guess, you know, I
Speaker:Okay, pretend we're not recording this. Which...
Speaker:No, I've got a good answer here. Okay. I got a good
Speaker:answer. I think we can look at, you know, patterns that we've
Speaker:seen already play out. And I think the market does
Speaker:intrinsically look for things that look familiar. So let's
Speaker:look at the Bitcoin ETF, right? There was the Bitcoin ETF
Speaker:got announced. There was actually quite a lot of buying leading up to it
Speaker:in 2023. Yes, we had the ETF listing in January and it was a bit lackluster, price
Speaker:didn't go everywhere. But ever since then, we've seen nothing but crazy rampant
Speaker:buying for this Bitcoin ETF, right? So the idea that there's going
Speaker:to be meme coins now that represent ETFs as well, I
Speaker:think that's a game changer. You're going to open up, you know, the accessibility
Speaker:for a market that's much larger. There's going to be more demand for those assets outside
Speaker:of like traditional ways to get exposure to crypto. So already you
Speaker:have a group of meme coins, in my opinion, that are going to
Speaker:have an edge on the rest of the market. So some of the meme coins that
Speaker:they're looking to make ETFs for that there's currently filings for, to my knowledge, obviously
Speaker:Trump, Melania coin, Dogecoin and Bonk. So
Speaker:they're kind of on my sort of radar of ones that obviously when
Speaker:the market is accepting of meme coins, the same way they're accepting of
Speaker:like you mentioned NFT's last cycle, you're going to get access to
Speaker:it either through a traditional crypto exchange or you're just going to use your sharebroker account
Speaker:and just purchase it through that. So I think that's a very obvious
Speaker:place to be looking right now. And then to break down the
Speaker:two there, obviously Doge and Bonk, you know, both dog coins,
Speaker:one on the Solana network, one on its own network. And
Speaker:then you've obviously got the whole meme around Elon and the Department of
Speaker:Government Efficiency, Doge, and even the Dogecoin being
Speaker:on their website very briefly before being pulled down. There's just
Speaker:So, so good. And I'm pretty sure he's yet to launch Dogecoin 1, the
Speaker:satellite too, so he might see that sometime soon as well. But
Speaker:that's where I would be looking, to be honest. There's a lot of like getting in the trenches and
Speaker:finding, you know, really low caps that, you know, again, the market's
Speaker:finding is relevant right now that you obviously could
Speaker:invest in and you may make something off, but the risk is much larger there. And
Speaker:I would still say that the risk is larger on these assets as well. But
Speaker:in terms of like measuring what we've seen in the past play out now for a
Speaker:meme coin category, that's something different. It's never happened before. So
Speaker:Okay. Well then, while you're giving us
Speaker:some insights, what would you say is the most
Speaker:relevant, I guess, narrative within altcoins that you're
Speaker:It's been interesting. I think there's two main, well, there's three main ones, really.
Speaker:I think it's been heavily led by meme coins. There's just no
Speaker:doubt about that. That's the majority of trading volumes that we're seeing
Speaker:on decentralized exchanges. It's the most amount of tokens being created. AI
Speaker:has been a carryover category since about
Speaker:the late 2022s that have continually, again, found
Speaker:speculative interest. It's, I think, appeared on the top
Speaker:search results on CoinGecko repeatedly now. And
Speaker:then thirdly, the most common one is your infrastructure tokens. So,
Speaker:you know, who's building the next Solana killer? That's a common theme.
Speaker:Tell us now, without a doubt, you've heard
Speaker:it on the Crypto Collective podcast. What is the
Speaker:We'll wait to see it, but Sui is definitely a front runner and a contender. I
Speaker:like it. They've got obviously a good team behind them. I think they've got a very clever
Speaker:marketing team as well. They've obviously gone and so
Speaker:far outperformed quite a fair chunk of the market for
Speaker:the last couple of months. Obviously, we've seen Sui move quite
Speaker:a bit in the last two months when the rest of the market was, you could say, relatively quite
Speaker:flat. So it's looking good at this stage, but
Speaker:there's also other infrastructure tokens that may not be relevant
Speaker:right now, but may be relevant in the near future. So you have these
Speaker:chain-specific infrastructures. So for example, you've got gaming chains,
Speaker:you've got AI chains, you've got... Are you talking about like Payback or
Speaker:something? Yeah, you've
Speaker:got IMX, which is specifically gaming. There's that
Speaker:one too. But AVAX as well, they're very heavy in the gaming space as well.
Speaker:So you have a lot of these other niche chains
Speaker:that might potentially gather some interest as we get more active users back
Speaker:to the market. And that's another way to... They're
Speaker:So it was Layer Ones, Infrastructure, AI,
Speaker:and Meme Coins, which is fascinating. You said that Meme Coins
Speaker:No, that's on just global decentralized exchange volumes. On
Speaker:our platform, we're mainly seeing the blue chips usually.
Speaker:To be honest, I think the top three in the last 12 months have been Bitcoin, Solana
Speaker:and XRP. So interesting there, Ethereum not
Speaker:on the top three in the last 12 months, but the market definitely favors the
Speaker:top 10 at this stage at least. They seem
Speaker:to be the ones obviously moving and performing the best concurrently.
Speaker:Yeah, interesting. So now thinking
Speaker:about the year ahead, do
Speaker:you guys sort of put out some sort of list of, you know, we think these
Speaker:are going to be the top performing coins for 2025. Is
Speaker:Not yet. We're a bit sort of under the pump and scarce of resources
Speaker:at the best of times. We'd love to spend some time and do some research in
Speaker:that way, but we do provide regular snapshots of
Speaker:different sectors of the market. So, for example, we did a piece on
Speaker:the Solana ecosystem before it really blew up, and we mentioned a couple of
Speaker:the key players in that space, like Jupyter, Jido, And
Speaker:then even some of the meme coins like Bonk in that example. And
Speaker:then, you know, even understanding like the AI sector. So like we do have
Speaker:research reports that we put together. They're put together, I think, at
Speaker:least one or two a month we have. And sort of deep diving into
Speaker:AI. So, you know, what's, how do you even go about investing in the AI sector?
Speaker:So understanding like there's different ways to get exposure. And then
Speaker:And what's your take then, Pav, on stablecoins and
Speaker:Very bullish. If I had to say, I think that's the most bullish sector
Speaker:for me when it comes to making sure we don't... The
Speaker:one issue we always have with every bull run is obviously that massive retracement, right?
Speaker:It's liquidity exiting the crypto space and just going back into the
Speaker:regular, the world of liquidity, right? So if there's no money
Speaker:in the system, how can prices stay high? You know, with stablecoins,
Speaker:they offer, I think, two really unique opportunities right now. I
Speaker:think there is a massive push for regulating them and
Speaker:regulation of stablecoins will obviously create more use cases. And
Speaker:if there's more use cases that, you know, generate yield on
Speaker:chain for some of these stablecoins through like traditional banks, that's
Speaker:going to give another reason for stablecoins not to be, you know, sold off into
Speaker:fiat dollars. I also think stablecoins again,
Speaker:will probably be one of the first real use cases, hopefully, for
Speaker:something called the Real World Asset Tokenization Scheme.
Speaker:So I know Larry Fink, CEO of BlackRock, big proponent and
Speaker:supporter of tokenization of assets. So what we're talking about there
Speaker:is imagine if you held a stable coin in your digital wallet
Speaker:and every day you received a yield. So instead of
Speaker:putting it in your traditional bank, we have to wait at the end of every month, cycle
Speaker:for your bill to get your interest payment. you know, this new sort of
Speaker:emerging technology class, you know, it allows you to accrue it daily. So
Speaker:then you have, I said, a greater effect on compounding. The
Speaker:user benefits at the end of the day. But also for, you know, someone like
Speaker:the US, it allows them to fractionalize and sell off more of
Speaker:their government debt a lot faster as well. So it creates, it's sort of
Speaker:like one hand feeds the other in a sense. It's almost like the new way of potentially, you
Speaker:know, having that version two of the money system, the digital money system. But
Speaker:the real obvious risk there is like centralized digital currencies, which again
Speaker:have been, you know, dismissed at this stage that they're not going to be a thing
Speaker:where the government can track how you're spending your money. But private bank
Speaker:issued stable coins or bank supported stable coins, that seems to
Speaker:be something that doesn't look like it's going to stop. I think it's going to get
Speaker:So you're talking about central bank digital currency, CBCs? Because
Speaker:Trump has just said he's not having CBDCs, interestingly
Speaker:enough. In Australia, there has been a push by the current government to
Speaker:No, so I would say like that's a sort of solution that
Speaker:we don't want, but just general stablecoins in the way that
Speaker:they exist right now, them being regulated and having regulated
Speaker:products where you can do what you do at your normal bank, but do
Speaker:it in crypto land, let's call it. I think that's going
Speaker:to be a massive trend to watch because then we're talking, you know, billions,
Speaker:if not trillions of dollars, you know, remaining in the crypto ecospace and
Speaker:not going back and being converted into fiat. And there's already numerous
Speaker:benefits that are seen there. I think the A16Z report
Speaker:that everyone can download, that's a pretty well-known report, looked
Speaker:at the cost for some of the major banks to just transfer funds.
Speaker:It's anywhere from, I think it's an average of $44 just to move money around.
Speaker:Obviously, if you're doing that through stable coins and using something like a scalable
Speaker:layer two, it's costing a fraction of a cent. So there's
Speaker:lots of incentive there for even the big banks to get on board. And a
Speaker:lot of that, what I mentioned at the top of the show, that legislation
Speaker:now allowing banks to custody and hold digital assets is
Speaker:now possible. It opens up the door for some of these solutions to get,
Speaker:I think, past the door, past regulation, past
Speaker:and have a legislative framework. So then, We've
Speaker:always speculated on what's the use case for crypto. Like this is a real one. It's quite serious,
Speaker:like settlement times. So we could really see
Speaker:that materialize in the next 12 to 24 months. And I think that's really exciting for
Speaker:It's a bit boring. Yeah, well, I love it
Speaker:because I come from a mortgage broker background, many moons ago,
Speaker:many moons ago. So I sort of understand a bit about lending. And
Speaker:what I think is really, really powerful right now is actually the removal
Speaker:of the sub-121 in the States because it opens up the doorway now
Speaker:for Australian banks as well. Now, I did hear through, it
Speaker:was actually Peter Dunworth that I heard this from, that he said
Speaker:that two out of the four major banks are already looking at frameworks to custody Bitcoin.
Speaker:which would make sense. Yeah. And where I
Speaker:think that's going to be powerful is it will open
Speaker:up the doorway for people who potentially are not not
Speaker:thinking about we want to have to set up this fund and go to an exchange and buy Bitcoin
Speaker:and hold it. Right. You know, we don't have to deal with that. So I think
Speaker:either, you know, maybe SWIFTX partners with ANZ Bank,
Speaker:for example. So they become the pathway to ANZ Bank.
Speaker:Essentially, you could maybe even buy it through ANZ. which
Speaker:is done directly through sort of in the back door through Swift X, because they've got
Speaker:the infrastructure to do that, then it's held in ANZ Bank. So
Speaker:when someone goes onto their net bank, and they've got
Speaker:their savings account, the cheque account, the credit card, the home loan, and then there's their
Speaker:Bitcoin account, right? That's where I think it's going to,
Speaker:and by doing that, I think it's gonna open up the door to more
Speaker:people to come into the Bitcoin community. It makes
Speaker:it, you know, like in Australia, I say that people actually
Speaker:do trust Australian banks. They may not trust banks
Speaker:But no one wakes up in the morning and thinks, oh my god, ANZ banks
Speaker:are going to steal my money today. So they do have
Speaker:Yeah, and it may even open the door through further regulation along the
Speaker:lines of, you know, this legislation lifting or what's the next thing that comes, you know,
Speaker:enabled and, you know, we might get insurance products then finally for crypto. Like
Speaker:a lot of people have been asking for a long time for some sort of insurance offering, even
Speaker:if it costs a premium, they would just want to be protected. you know, if there's a
Speaker:bank custodying these assets, obviously that risk framework might seem
Speaker:more appealing for insurers and it's a whole different landscape then. And we
Speaker:get all this sleuth of insurance products that come out. And then
Speaker:you have like maybe even insurance from, you know, staking, slashing
Speaker:and stuff like that. There's all these different potential use cases that come off the back of,
Speaker:Yeah, because we used to have staking, right? I think... We did. We
Speaker:had staking in Australia. Now, I don't know what happened there, but do you know what you got? You got banned
Speaker:It's, yeah, just up for clarity from
Speaker:a regulatory perspective. So, again, I think a
Speaker:lot of what's happening in the US is going to lead the way for how things are
Speaker:done. Let's say, for example, here in Australia, some
Speaker:of those sort of standards and practices. We've already got the tokenization mapping exercise carried
Speaker:out at the moment. I think it's at a consultative phase at the moment where they're
Speaker:taking, basically, opinions from people
Speaker:in the industry on the proposal structure and way to go about regulating crypto.
Speaker:So there is movement happening on ground here in Australia, but I
Speaker:still do feel like if someone as big as the US takes charge, takes
Speaker:the lead, the rest will sort of, you know, over time try
Speaker:to keep up, especially if it's seen as a growth industry, which
Speaker:Can I ask you about adoption? We've got massive
Speaker:institutional adoption. Obviously, MicroStrategy
Speaker:would be probably the number one institutional adopter, and it would say, I
Speaker:guess, with the ETFs, BlackRock and what have you. But we've also seen
Speaker:now 15 states come to mind in
Speaker:the US who have indicated about setting
Speaker:up a Bitcoin strategic reserve. Obviously, you've got Trump
Speaker:has obviously announced that as well. What are you hearing
Speaker:on the ground as far as also, I guess, other countries and what do you think sort
Speaker:I think it's a very obvious one in the sense that when one starts, the
Speaker:rest follow. So again, we're looking at the US lens
Speaker:specifically, but I think it's going to be a shift
Speaker:in momentum for holding. It's just going to be one of those things of can you risk not
Speaker:having even 0.5% of something in Bitcoin? Is
Speaker:it too risky not to have any? I think there's going to be potentially a lot of
Speaker:questions being asked in that vein. But I
Speaker:think Again, if we're talking about big catalysts, I still
Speaker:think that's still yet to come. If we do see one start, then
Speaker:the next start, then the next start, what effect does that have globally? I
Speaker:I think it's so big that the risk that the retail investor
Speaker:It pains me. I don't know why it pains me that other people don't have it because if
Speaker:they don't have it, it doesn't matter to me. You
Speaker:know, my friends and family for sure, I'm like begging them, you have to
Speaker:be a part of this. And I think because I'm watching crypto media
Speaker:news every day, I digest it every day, I basically
Speaker:live and breathe it. And of course, you're not a true Bitcoiner until you've got
Speaker:a baseball cap, right? With a B
Speaker:on it, and a neon sign in the background. Exactly,
Speaker:that's it. Yeah, so I'm super bullish on what's gonna happen with that space
Speaker:there. Can you talk about perhaps Bitcoin
Speaker:lending? And for example, what
Speaker:I've just, I've used Block Earner, and I know Block Earner,
Speaker:you've probably heard of in Australia, and I've gone down that path of experimenting with
Speaker:their platform. It's not something that SwiftX currently
Speaker:does, correct? Maybe it's something that SwiftX will do in the
Speaker:future as well, is lend on Bitcoin. But can
Speaker:you talk about Bitcoin lending and the impact that will have in
Speaker:I think it just opens up the door for more use cases, right? Like you're saying,
Speaker:like at the end of the day, Bitcoin is one thing at its purest, it's
Speaker:collateral. So it's worth something that, you know, in
Speaker:its history, it's gone up, you know, every four
Speaker:years, it's making new highs, right? In line with the halving. So what
Speaker:it enables you, obviously, if you've realized it to a point where
Speaker:you're like, all right, I'm happy with the value of this collateral asset, you're
Speaker:able to take out basically a loan against it
Speaker:using that as a collateral. As long as you're, obviously
Speaker:this is for everyone to sort of suss out for themselves, like not over collateralizing
Speaker:themselves and going into liquidation or anything like that. I think a lot
Speaker:of these products, they are at this stage quite consumer
Speaker:focused and making sure that there's not too much inherent risk. for using the products,
Speaker:but everyone just needs to take that into their own sort of hands. But
Speaker:it enables another use case, right? So, you know, there's
Speaker:not really a situation where, well, there are maybe some, but like,
Speaker:you know, holding shares in a company, once you have them, you can't really do too much
Speaker:else with them. you know, where at least if you have something like Bitcoin as
Speaker:an asset that is worth, you know, X amount as collateral, you can
Speaker:use that to then go and engage in a loan and pay that back over time. So,
Speaker:I guess the closest thing we have right now is, you
Speaker:know, mortgaging and real estate, you know, having a house, you go and
Speaker:refinance, your house has gone up maybe 10% in the last
Speaker:1 to 2 years. So, that gain you're then able to
Speaker:redraw against, right? And maybe make some improvements or go make some other investments.
Speaker:That's That's kind of the same way to sort of visualize it as how it would work for
Speaker:Bitcoin. But yeah, definitely a space that I
Speaker:think once we sort of see Bitcoin
Speaker:become more mainstream, it'll probably be more demand for it. And it's
Speaker:definitely an area that we as a business are looking into as well. But it's
Speaker:Yeah I'm really excited about it obviously because I've experimented with it as
Speaker:well because I want to sort of share within the crypto collective community
Speaker:how this actually works in real time and
Speaker:what's interesting is you know you can lend up to right now
Speaker:it's 40% LVR 9.5% rate so you've got to think in your mind is Bitcoin going
Speaker:to go up more than 9.5% this year and I mean last year did 120 plus percent so it was a no-brainer And
Speaker:I think also what I actually did, just as a side note, is I just went back and bought
Speaker:more Bitcoin. So I borrowed the 40% and went back
Speaker:and bought more Bitcoin with the 40%. Yeah, so
Speaker:awesome. We've touched on a lot of really interesting things actually in this, but all those
Speaker:things, I could go down lending for like another hour. I
Speaker:think it's been really, really good. Pav, thank you so much for coming on to today's
Speaker:episode. We've touched on so many amazing topics. There's so many
Speaker:I could have gone even deeper on. But for those who are listening today,
Speaker:just please thank Pav for coming on. He's the market analyst there at SwiftX. For
Speaker:those of you who do want to come on board and join SwiftX, they do
Speaker:have a special promotion, $20 of free Bitcoin. All
Speaker:you have to do is use the link in the show notes of
Speaker:this episode and you can get your $20 of free Bitcoin using
Speaker:Cheers. Thanks for tuning in to Crypto Collective. If you've enjoyed this
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Speaker:of me at I'm Matthew Fraser on all