Hey, welcome back to the Fantasy Football Game Plan. He's Quentin. I'm Judy. It's week eight and we're going to give you our favorite player props in this episode. Who's going to be an over? Where are the unders hiding? Drop your best bets in the comments. Help us out and hit subscribe and don't miss any of our episodes. The NBA just gave us a fresh example of why, why the NFL still has a little halo of integrity. How you feeling about the NBA scandals?

Yeah, we've had sports betting a lot in the news this week. Partly with all the investigations, involving the NBA. We've been pretty fortunate on the NFL side. They've been very strict on as soon as anything comes out that player, I mean, Calvin, rid Lewis was suspended like an entire season for a

Yeah.

team. So they have been pretty strict. Now, college athletes are able to bet on professional games too. We do like giving some advice, but all of this is kind of just meant for entertainment. We are not trying to make a living off this. This is just kind of a fun way to, keep up with sports and it's so involved in all the games you watch nowadays. I mean, you have on ESPN all of their betting lines nonstop, so.

Exactly. I can't for the life of me understand somebody that you know is making almost a hundred million over four years being even slightly entertained by placing, you know, even a $10,000 bet. But most of these are like 20 and two, $200 bets, and I don't see how. Why they would even risk their career doing that.

Yeah.

Anyhow, let's go on, let's talk about how we did last week and how you can do maybe this week too, following our bets. So, uh, how'd we do last week?

Yeah, last week was a great week. We went seven and three for the bets. We gave out a total of a 4.9 unit profit with a couple of those parlays in there. And really, of those three losses, one was our long shot bet of Miami to be the lowest scoring team. On Sunday, they did their part. They only scored six points. I thought we were looking good, but the Raiders did not show up to their game. They got shut out. Which took that one away. And the other one were jets tight ends and neither of those scored a touchdown 'cause the jets didn't score a touchdown. So none of the Jets lines are there. So fortunately, we're kind of spared from making the same mistake this week.

Um.

for the season, we are up about 29 units. Of profit.

That is awesome. We're doing pretty well. Well, let's jump into this week and see how we can make some money this week. What's our first bet?

Absolutely. We're gonna start with Ted Rowa McMillan, a player that we both like and we're gonna take over and a half receiving yards at a minus one 13 price, McMillan and all of the three losses that the Panthers have had this year. Has hit this line, he's gone for sixty eight, a hundred sixty two compare that to wins. He is only been one of four times, so if they're effective on the ground, then he probably won't hit this line. But if they're coming back and they're trying to keep pace with the bills, that's how we get to these 55 and a half receiving yards.

Yeah.

go ahead.

The key here is the bills. I think. Um, and hopefully it's not the bills that we saw against Atlanta that weren't putting any points up. If we get the Real Bills team, then they're putting points up and the Panthers are gonna have to score. And to do that, they're gonna have to throw.

Yeah, and the other piece of this bet is Andy Dalton. So Andy Dalton's looking like the starter for Carolina this week in his four games last year. He averaged 224 yards per game, comparing that to Bryce's 192 this year. So we're getting a slight bump there just in total yardage. Also, who Dalton throws the ball? If we look at that four game sample, that outside x wide receiver, the exact same position that Ted Rowa now fills, led the tar, led the team in targets all four games. It was Deontay Johnson at the time for the Panthers, and in those games he had a hundred twenty two eighty three twenty three, so the one bad week and then 78 yards. Three or four great weeks for Deontay Johnson with Andy Dalton last So I'm looking forward to what Macmillan can do.

Yeah, I'm looking forward to seeing, if this offense takes a pretty good bump or the wide receivers, take a good bump with Andy Dalton in there. It'll be fun to see what's next.

So the next one is in the same game, and I just wanna focus on Josh Allen. Under 29 and a half passing attempts. So far he has been very limited except for that one Ravens game, that one Ravens game. He aired it out 47 times. His peak since then has been 31 against New England. And then of the last five weeks, four of them, he's been under this line typically like dramatically under the line around like 24.

That's interesting 'cause we do think of Josh Allen throwing it more, but his wide receivers have just not been there this year at all.

Also, I think they're gonna lean on James Cook a little bit more here. They are a touchdown favorite, coming off the buy. I think they'll be pretty effective against the Panthers.

At the beginning of the season, we saw them leaning on James Cook and it was going pretty well, and then it's kind of fallen apart since then. So I like them to lean on, cook

mm-hmm.

Okay, I, these first two from that Panthers and Bill's game, I like, what other games are we going to focus on?

So the next one I want to talk about is that kind of. I think it's gonna be a kind of boring game of the Atlanta and Miami and I don't really think Miami's gonna be able to do much, but I do think Atlanta's gonna be effective on the ground. So the angle I want to attack this is Michael Pennix Jr. Under one and a half passing touchdowns kind of lean in to say there's a lot of ways this can like hit. You can either have Miami's defense just showing up that day and they're not really effective on the passing game, but you can also have just the ground game being so effective they don't need to pass it. And Bijan and Tyler Alger are having great days, but in his career, Michael Pennix has only had multiple touchdowns twice, I kinda like in this matchup that favors the rushing attack even more. So taking his under and passing touchdowns.

Yeah, I like this too. I don't think that the Falcon should have to do anything except run Bijan and Tyler Als. Year for sure against the Dolphins defense. We've seen the dolphins allow so many rushing yards to um, you know, average. Running backs. I can't imagine what Bee John's going to do. And they're at home in Atlanta coming off of their loss to the 49 ERs. It all just sets up perfectly for, pennex to not have to throw. I I do wonder a little bit, we, we've seen some players get injured and we've got some, you know, injury, forgiveness by the sports books. If you have a player on the under and they go out, do you still get it?

Typically they're pretty good about it, as long as that player plays. Pennix is a little banged up. He should be starting this week, but that is kind of another angle where I don't think he, he's gonna be asked to do much, but typically they're pretty good. As long as they play, then you're unders.

All right, I like that. Yeah, and if they've already got this lineup we're seeing, we've been struggling a little bit to find some of the player props because they don't have out there everyone that's playing. So if they've got this one, they probably expect pennex to be playing. What do you have? One more for us.

Yeah. The last one I wanna bring up is Jerry Judy, in that Cleveland Patriots game and it, his, his under for 18 and a half longest reception, really starting with. If you think about Dylan Gabriel, you're not thinking about pushing the ball down the field. He is not airing it out. He keeps it very close to the line of scrimmage. He wants to have those short completions. And we look at those three games of Dylan Gabriel's sample. Now, Jerry, Judy has had two games where he hasn't even reached this in total yardage. He has had a game of 17 yards and 15 yards. So I'm gonna take his under on 18 half for his one longest reception, then.

crazy.

Yeah, the three longest receptions in that Dylan Gabriel, sample two have been 16, 12, and nine, and then you get Christian Gonzalez as the matchup, so it's not a good matchup. You also have Jerry Judy missing Wednesday's practice due to a knee injury, and so if he's a little banged up, we have Dylan Gabriel, and then we're matched up against Gonzalez. It's just all green flags here for this bet.

This is all stacked, uh, in, in our favor to go on the under of the longest reception here for Jerry Judy. I like that one too. I like that all these are, home matchups too. That's kind of fun as well. Always fun betting on the home teams. What do we have for touchdown players who's getting a touchdown?

So four touchdowns. I kind of wanted to just start off easy and right with, Saquon Barkley. We think he's gonna have a bounce back game. He was very effective against the giants. They just went away from him, and I think he's just going to get that bump of, let's make sure that Saquon gets rolling. We need, we got our passing game rolling the past couple games. Let's make sure that we're effective on the ground. We know he's a great player. And we're gonna use 'em towards the end zone. He's minus 1 55. You're not getting a ton of value there, but just starting off with a win, is kind of the plan with SE on there in that first spot.

I like it. If they don't use Sequan Barkley, I'm going to probably lose my mind on the Eagles. They figured out the passing game last week. Now they gotta figure out how to get Barkley moving and into the end zone as well. So I like this one. I've got another one that would be easy. That would be Jonathan Taylor. But let's. Push it up and try to get out of the bad odds. Jonathan Taylor for a single touchdown is a minus 3 75 here at Hard Rock. I'm down in Florida now and I get to bet Hard Rock. They're usually pretty comparable with DraftKings anyway. If you are on Hard Rock. Uh,, Betting. Anyhow, I wanna push this to two touchdowns for Jonathan Taylor, and that gets you up to a plus one 30 little bit better odds. When these two teams played in week three, Jonathan Taylor rushed for three touchdowns. This is. Taylor's offense. Everything goes through him. He run Taylor and score, score touchdowns, and that's the, the game plan for the Colts. It feels like. Even Woody Marks had two touchdowns. One was receiving, one was rushing, but still, you know, other people have had multiple touchdowns against this titans defense. And I think Jonathan Taylor at home can do it again. So I'm willing to risk it and go two touchdowns for a plus one 30.

I like it. I think the Titans are one of the teams that Jonathan Taylor himself has more touchdowns. Than the total team of the titans. So I like that here, it's kind of fun to find different angles, the two touchdown angle here at plus one 30, or looking at like maybe a first half touchdown or even like a live touchdown bet. For Jonathan Taylor to just try to find a better price of that one

Yeah. Yeah. Minus 3 75 is crazy.

Yeah. So. For kind of the next mid-range. We've talked about a couple dominant running backs. I want to take a wide receiver who was on a hot streak to begin the year, and now he's gone a little cold, but I think he's in a great spot to bounce back, and that is Romo. Dunay for the Chicago Bears at plus one 40. He's just been a little bit off with kb. was a weird game with the

I.

too, that they weren't really. the ball at all against the Saints. So I think he's in a good bounce back spot here against the Ravens, which just about everyone has been taking advantage of, uh, passing, especially in the red zone against that Raven Secondary.

I have some concerns over this one, but I like it. ODO plus one 40. I do like Odoe to bounce back. We haven't heard much of from him in the last few weeks, and for the Bears to be successful, they need Odoe to be successful as well. My concerns come from the Ravens playing at home, coming off their bi-week and getting some of their defensive starters back, but that may make. The Bears turn away from last week's Deandre Swift, who they got to lean on both of their running backs and be forced to pass it more if Baltimore's actually in a game and it looks like we might get Lamar Jackson back. He actually showed up to practice on Wednesday. He didn't do a whole lot, but he was there. If we get the Ravens offense going, then maybe that's gonna push the Bears even more and we get O Dunes in the end zone.

Yeah, I think if you have the O Dunes touchdown slip, the New York rooting for Lamar Jackson, and you want them to be pushed every single drive to have to score.

Definitely. What's your long shot? Touchdown bet.

So my long shot one is one I actually took on Monday night football last week, and he paid off at a plus 700 price. He is significantly, Less value this week, but he is still plus three 20 and that is Tez Johnson, the wide receiver for the Bucks. And really this team that kind of stood out to me watching the game on Monday night football after Evans went down is this team was trusting and Baker was trusting Tez more and more like he made a couple mistakes. He's like 150 pound rookie wide receiver. He was making some mistakes, but they kept going back to him and they kept giving him chances. And his touchdown on Monday night was a really. Exciting play. I think he made like three guys miss to get into the end zone. He made some great plays. And he's just pretty electric with the ball in his hand. He's been seeing more and more targets. It's really just him and Buka and Sterling Shepherd, right now for that wide receiver core. So I like him at a plus three 20 price. He did it the past couple of games. We also see, especially on touchdowns, I feel like players are more streaky where we see like a hot, like ine Westbrook. The Titans wide receiver, and then we saw it with like Jalen McMillan for the Bucks last year, where they'll just go in the stretch of games where they're catching a touchdown. They, it's fine them.

Yeah, definitely. And I like, the bucks going into New Orleans. New Orleans can actually score some points and keep pace like we saw them do last week against the Bears. They just can't seem to win games, but that's okay as long as they're scoring points and making it fun for us. I'm okay with that. Baker Mayfield coming off of a loss is always fun to see what he's going to do.

Yeah, last week we hit our kind of Vrabel revenge game against the Titans, and it looks like you have another same game parlay for us of also bullying the Titans this week.

I do, maybe that's like my angle. I was looking for one. It's like, well what can we do? And I wasn't liking putting, you know, the different games together. So I'm back on the Colts and Jonathan Taylor. But we're gonna start it off with Daniel Jones under 30 and a half pass attempts. That. Itself is a minus one 15. Then we're gonna pair it. This just gets you a little bump with a Jonathan Taylor anytime touchdown. Just one of 'em at the minus 3 75. And then we'll finish it off with the Jonathan Taylor. Over 102 rushing yard, 102 and a half rushing yards at a minus one 15. That gets you to a positive two 50. They're all so tightly correlated that if you hit. One, you're probably getting all of these, the touchdowns, kind of the iffy one, but I don't see any way Jonathan Taylor's not getting in the end zone this week.

Yeah, I'm in agreement with you. I think if you have. Maybe like a boost. They're offering you like a promotion for a same game, parlay, and you need to meet like a minimal leg requirement in that anytime touchdown is past the like minus 300 leg requirement. Look for that first half touchdown line to just get in it, because it'll probably come when the game's still neutral or somewhat close. For Taylor's touchdown.

That's very good point. 'cause that minus 3 75 wouldn't work in one of those. Partly boost normally.

Mm-hmm.

What else do you have?

The other thing is it is national tight ends day. I was looking for some of our favorite plays. We talked about some good plays on our DFS episode of Dalton Schultz and a couple of the rookies we like of Harold Fanon and Mason Taylor. But none other lines are there right now, just

Yeah.

news. The one rookie tight end that I was able to find was Tyler Warren, back on the Colts game, but he's heavily involved. at the beginning of games, he's like one of the best wide receiving options. Not even just tight end, but one of the best wide receiver options in the first half of games. And so I wanted to take the angle of him to record a catch on the first drive, and this one kind of has a variety of things going for it. One, just the cult's ability to sustain long drives. That gives us a lot of plays and a lot of opportunities to have this catch. And just his involvement. He's done this the last three weeks, and typically heavily involved in those like schemed up plays right at the beginning of games. Okay.

I, I like it. My only concern is Jonathan Taylor runs for, you know, 60 yards and we've got so much in on this game already that maybe that doesn't happen, but maybe you know. The first pass goes to him, and then Jonathan Taylor gets to run for his 60 yards. So it would work, but do take a look at all of those tied end props when they are coming out, particularly where the receivers are injured. So I haven't looked at K Oten to see what he's getting for Tampa Bay, Dalton Schultz. Any place where you all the injuries to the wide receivers, Mason Taylor. With it being National Tide ends day. We saw that last year they had quite a weekend, so maybe there's something to it. And I'm gonna be looking for those. They're just not out right now, so we don't have one put together. But yeah, definitely take a look at it. So that's it for our Week eight Player Props. Tell us your favorite plays in the comments for this week. Play smart. Have fun. See you next time.