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Jacob Shapiro: Hello listeners.

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Welcome to another episode
of Geopolitical Cousins.

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Uh, Marco and I are both on the road,
but we made some time in the evening on

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Tuesday, October 14th to talk to you.

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Uh, before we were dealing with
our respective responsibilities.

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We talk about, uh, the Gen Z protests,
uh, some interesting curve balls

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in there, but of course, US China
relations, trade, everything else.

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We hope you enjoy the episode.

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If you wanna do us a favor, please share
this podcast with everybody that you

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know, like that's all you have to do.

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Spread it far and wide.

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Cheers and see you up.

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All right, listeners, cousins, back at it.

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Uh, I cut Marco off 'cause he was
starting to make basketball jokes.

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Marco, I'm in, I'm in Milwaukee.

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You are in, you are in Phoenix.

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Uh, what does that have
to do with basketball?

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Marko Papic: Well, I was just saying
that, uh, both cities have something

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in common, which is that they're going
nowhere when it comes to the NBA.

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So,

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Jacob Shapiro: uh, Phoenix.

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Phoenix, probably not.

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It's really, you know, it's amazing how
fast Phoenix fell from Grace and how

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different the narrative would be if they
had beat Giannis in that finals and CP

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three had gotten his finals, and yeah,
quite a, quite a sliding doors moment.

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Um, yeah,

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Marko Papic: also, um, Deandre
Aton, I mean, that was his

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last, uh, relevant season.

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But look, we can't lead with basketball.

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We're gonna lose a lot of
our, uh, uh, listeners.

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We obviously have to
leave that for the end.

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I do have some questions for you
at the end, though, for you and our

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listeners on the basketball front, but

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Jacob Shapiro: I know that, well, I mean,
uh, obviously we have to lead with Ryan

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Russillo breaking up with Bill Simmons
officially and moving to Barstool Sports.

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Right.

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That that's what you're implying.

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Marko Papic: Yeah, I, that was actually,
uh, very surprising, you know, um, but I

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guess, uh, you know, that's, that's what
happens when you don't give people equity.

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Good people leave when you don't give them
enough or you know, at all, any equity.

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So, I don't know, you sent me, or
you posted the, the video of Ryan

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Illa basically saying why, and it
was very clear that he emphasized,

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you know, that uh, it was all
about partner, being a partner.

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He wants to be partner at
this stage in his career.

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Jacob Shapiro: Number one for somebody
who's been on the radio and podcast

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and TV for as long as he was, he was
so painfully awkward in that video,

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which is one of the reasons I like him.

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'cause he's, he just like
sucks at these things.

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He also deed to use the words
at this stage in my career, uh,

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which I don't know, like how many
people has he probably criticized

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as well from that point of view.

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But I'm, I'm gonna make this, this vow
to you in front of all the listeners.

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Marco, I will never leave you for.

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For David Portnoy.

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Now, Mr. Portnoy, if you're listening
and you want to bring both of us to the

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Barstool Geopolitics network, like we
are both gonna talk, but you will not.

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Well, first of all, you'll
not divide my loyalties,

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Marko Papic: but the reason I'm not Bill
Simmons is because we're equal partners.

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Jacob Shapiro: Yes.

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That's in this

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Marko Papic: endeavor.

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Right.

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So that is the difference.

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I mean, um, and that's, and by the
way, that's, I think what's very

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important for anyone starting a
business, you cannot keep people who

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are critical to the business or who are
clearly a, like a generational talent

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without sharing equity with them.

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That's just like, yeah,
they're gonna leave.

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You know what I mean?

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And it's a free market baby.

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Once you reach a certain level of, um,
excellence, you know, like, and Ryan

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SLO is excellent, and so he bounced.

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Jacob Shapiro: And he bounced.

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All right.

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Well, um, also just, just the last bit
of, uh, foreplay before we get into it.

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I, um, sure it, it takes, I, I don't drink
a whole lot these days, mostly because

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I'm, you know, I've got, was up with
the 10 month old all night last night.

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Like, it's just, it's just a lot.

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But I will say when I'm in
Wisconsin, I cannot help but,

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but drink some of the spotted cow
here, only available in Wisconsin.

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It's a delicious beer.

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They drink more per capita in Wisconsin
than anywhere else in the United States.

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I felt like I should join in.

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So I'm having a beer with
you this evening too, mark.

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Marko Papic: That's awesome.

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I'm, I'm actually on coffee 'cause I've
been on client calls since 5:00 AM.

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Uh, also couple of things
since we are partners, don't do

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that again unless they pay us.

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Can we just make sure

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Jacob Shapiro: I've been
adding them to come on the

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podcast for some time, but Yes.

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Okay.

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Fine.

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Marko Papic: At second.

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At second of all, I love you,
but you sometimes say things

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that are completely illogical.

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You drink because you have a 10 month old.

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That's why you would drink.

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Jacob Shapiro: Oh, I see.

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What, you see what I mean?

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You're saying?

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Well, yeah, but that if you're using
alcohol as a crutch to deal with, you

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know, your feelings of stress, parent,

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Marko Papic: yes.

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Like, yes.

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Go on.

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You're gonna lose everyone
listening to this podcast.

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Let's just move on.

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Let's just move on,

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Jacob Shapiro: Marco.

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I lost them a long time ago.

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Remember, I'm, I'm the elitist
here in the conversation.

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My job is not to make these people happy.

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That's, uh, fair enough.

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Anyway, okay.

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But the thing that probably
everybody wants to talk about,

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I'll try and set us up here while
Marco, so we've got fireworks in

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the US China trade relationship.

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We've got some other things we want
to get to in the episode today,

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but we should talk about them.

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Um, it began, well it depends what,
where, where you think it begins.

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Sort of depends because there was
this ruling, uh, last week, um, the

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sort of fi for the, the Department
of Commerce, um, had this new 50%

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rule that entities that are owned
50% by a foreign government or some.

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Entity that is on an entity list
that would trigger a bunch of,

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uh, different export controls.

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That at least is what people are pointed
to as the reason for China reacting pretty

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disproportionately and announcing a bunch
of export controls on rare earth elements.

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Um, this is the part in the conversation
where we have to remind listeners

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that rare earth elements are not rare.

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They are just incredibly costly and
pollutive to mine effectively, and

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China doesn't care about any of that.

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They got rid of all the regulations
and they have become the real center,

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um, of a lot of these different, of
mining and processing and refining a

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lot of these different rare earths.

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A lot of these are minerals and resources
whose names I can't even pronounce, but

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I know that they're incredibly important,
um, in semiconductors, um, in electricity

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management devices like capacitors.

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I mean, there's all sorts of things that
they're absolutely mission critical for,

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and which China controls massive amounts
of the supply chain for, um, and China.

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It's not.

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It's not necessarily banning the exports
of lots of these different minerals.

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What it's doing though, is it's gonna
make Chinese companies and Chinese

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exporters, um, have to apply for approval
to continue exporting in the future.

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I thought one of the interesting
things too is it's not just, you

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know, the heavy rare earth elements
and the li uh, the graphite and

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the, and all that other stuff.

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They're also, they also put at least,
you know, quote unquote restrictions,

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um, on any technologies that lead
to the assembly, maintenance,

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repair, and upgrading of production
line for rare earth mining.

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So I think they're, they're.

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They're looking there and saying,
okay, these other countries

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in the world want to do this.

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They want to take some of this
processing and refining back.

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We're not gonna let you do that either.

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'cause we have cornered the market
on this and we're the ones that have

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all the technology and the refining,
processing and capacity as well.

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Um, there's also, and this is just
in the last couple of days, like

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everybody's focusing on the rare earth.

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Um, but I dunno if you saw this, Marco.

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There's also a return to these tit for
tat port fees that ocean shipping firms

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are gonna be charging on each other.

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This was something that both the
United States and China announced

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earlier in the year when President
Trump was talking about 240% tariffs.

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They were supposed to kick in later.

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Were they gonna get kicked in at all?

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It appears that they're being kicked in.

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Um, now both China and the United
States tried to, to tried to assuage

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investors and say, eh, like it's
not gonna be that big of a deal.

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But China also said it has started
to collect charges on us owned,

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operated, built or flagged vessels.

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And the United States has
similar restrictions in

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place at its different ports.

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I talk to different folks
in the shipping industry.

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They don't even really know what
the rules are at this point and

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how they're gonna be enforced.

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Um, China also added some, um, some
subsidiaries of a South Korean ship

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building company, um, on its sanctions
list for engaging with the United

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States, which is an interesting thing.

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Um, and before I turn it
over to you to, to let you.

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Uh, give us a take on this.

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I did just want to quote the
President of the United States.

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Um, by the way, Scott Besson said that
President Trump and Xi Jinping will still

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meet in a couple of weeks, and that he
thinks these things can be deescalated.

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So, um, that, that to me probably
says short-term deal, but we

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won't step on the punchline.

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But here is, here's what the president
of the United States had to say, uh, when

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he was asked about Beijing pursuing these
new curbs on rare earth element exports.

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Quote, we have the ultimate export.

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We have import and we have export.

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We import from China, massive
amounts, and, you know, maybe

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we'll have to stop doing that.

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But I don't know exactly what it is.

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Neither do you.

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Neither does anybody.

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End quote.

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I also loved the next line in the
Bloomberg article that had this

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quote, it was unclear what exports
the president was referring to.

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Marco, what is going on in
the US China relationship?

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Marko Papic: Oh, man.

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Uh, well, first of all, uh, one of
the, one of the reasons that I love

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that you set up our conversations
is that you do such a thorough

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job of explaining what happened.

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Jacob Shapiro: Hmm.

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Marko Papic: Because I, I would say No,
seriously, and I, and I'm just, just

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saying that because, um, most of the
media kind of missed that October 2nd

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semiconductor round of export control.

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So the United States of America has
tried to close the loophole basically.

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Um, the US does not want entities
in China that are aligned in some

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way, shape, or form, pretty loosely.

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I would say the Donald Trump
administration was very

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narrow in its definition of.

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What Chinese entities are aligned with
the military and the Communist party.

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They needed to see direct ownership link.

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The Biden administration broadened the
connection massively, too, massively, I

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would say, because, you know, if you sell
toilet paper to the Chinese, like people's

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liberation army, you are effectively like
part of the military industrial complex.

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So that's, that's Joe Biden, uh, and, and,
uh, um, and his administration's fault.

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But what bi, what Trump has done is
he ha he's continued the Joe Biden

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line and then he's closed the loophole
where whereas many of these Chinese

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companies would create a subsidiary,
they would create another company,

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own a piece of it, and then have
that subsidiary just buy the chips.

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And so, uh, on October 2nd, the Trump
administration tried to close that

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loophole with what's called a 50% rule.

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You know, um, if various list.

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Entities of the Chinese government
that Chinese government has some

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sort of relationship with is they
control effectively over 50%.

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You're not supposed to do these trips.

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You're not, you know.

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00:10:30,314 --> 00:10:34,574
Um, so the first foray this time
around was again, launched by the us.

231
00:10:35,535 --> 00:10:39,704
Uh, your, your assessment is correct
that, that October 2nd was important,

232
00:10:39,704 --> 00:10:43,395
but then you also said that China
reacted disproportionately, and

233
00:10:43,395 --> 00:10:46,995
I would actually argue that it
reacted extremely proportionately.

234
00:10:47,055 --> 00:10:47,265
Jacob Shapiro: Hmm.

235
00:10:48,435 --> 00:10:51,824
Marko Papic: So, as the Chinese, uh,
I think it was commerce ministry or

236
00:10:51,885 --> 00:10:57,405
someone like that, their, their statement
on Saturday after the Friday, uh,

237
00:10:57,405 --> 00:11:00,375
tweet for President Trump that he was
going to put sanctions at a hundred

238
00:11:00,375 --> 00:11:02,355
percent, their statements went along.

239
00:11:02,355 --> 00:11:06,135
Something like, look, you know,
and this was not carried by a lot

240
00:11:06,135 --> 00:11:08,805
of the Western press because it
doesn't fit the neat narrative that

241
00:11:08,805 --> 00:11:10,155
the Chinese are losing their cool.

242
00:11:10,845 --> 00:11:13,755
But the Chinese commerce
ministry came out and said, look.

243
00:11:14,160 --> 00:11:17,490
These are export controls, they're
not export bans and all legitimate

244
00:11:17,490 --> 00:11:19,050
businesses have nothing to worry about.

245
00:11:19,080 --> 00:11:20,520
It was almost verbatim.

246
00:11:20,520 --> 00:11:21,210
Something like that.

247
00:11:21,570 --> 00:11:21,630
Yeah.

248
00:11:21,630 --> 00:11:25,920
In other words, like, hey look, I mean
the US is imposing export controls

249
00:11:25,920 --> 00:11:30,450
where they want to go purchase order
by purchase order and approve each one.

250
00:11:30,450 --> 00:11:34,560
Well, we want to have that sort
of les over your heads too.

251
00:11:35,280 --> 00:11:38,610
We're not saying that you are not
gonna get the rare earth from China and

252
00:11:38,610 --> 00:11:43,170
everyone listening to this, just to be
clear, none of this is about banning.

253
00:11:43,770 --> 00:11:46,530
Like America will still sell
semiconductors, but it has

254
00:11:46,530 --> 00:11:48,780
to go to companies in China
that are allowed to buy it.

255
00:11:49,260 --> 00:11:51,330
And China simply saying,
we're not banning rare earths.

256
00:11:51,330 --> 00:11:55,260
But similarly we're going to
say to Lockheed Martin, like,

257
00:11:55,260 --> 00:11:56,970
Hey, dual use technology.

258
00:11:56,970 --> 00:11:59,700
You are building missiles that
one day might kill Chinese.

259
00:11:59,700 --> 00:12:02,880
We're not gonna sell you rare
earths, but we'll sell it to Nvidia.

260
00:12:03,510 --> 00:12:03,900
You know?

261
00:12:03,960 --> 00:12:06,570
Um, and so I think that
that's an important point.

262
00:12:06,570 --> 00:12:08,250
I think this is extremely proportionate.

263
00:12:08,805 --> 00:12:11,295
As is the shipping fees
that you also mentioned.

264
00:12:11,295 --> 00:12:14,505
China's saying to the US we're
just gonna do tit for tat.

265
00:12:14,505 --> 00:12:18,045
So, um, I think that that's
something to understand.

266
00:12:18,045 --> 00:12:21,945
I don't think there is a real
shift in Chinese thinking here.

267
00:12:22,425 --> 00:12:25,635
I think that they're just finally
starting to say to America,

268
00:12:25,635 --> 00:12:28,395
like, look, we are gonna start
restricting access to rare earths.

269
00:12:29,205 --> 00:12:33,590
If you restrict access to
semiconductors, um, on tariffs on

270
00:12:33,620 --> 00:12:35,535
tariffs, we're not gonna follow you.

271
00:12:35,865 --> 00:12:37,815
We're not gonna keep ratcheting tariffs.

272
00:12:38,115 --> 00:12:41,355
And they actually said that after
April, they, they came out and said it's

273
00:12:41,355 --> 00:12:44,475
nonsense to keep increasing tariffs.

274
00:12:44,985 --> 00:12:47,265
They made a joke like Beijing
made a joke about this.

275
00:12:47,265 --> 00:12:47,655
Like, this is, yeah,

276
00:12:47,955 --> 00:12:48,465
Jacob Shapiro: it was really, it was good.

277
00:12:48,465 --> 00:12:51,855
It was, it was, uh, because it was so
affected, it, it really hit, well, I,

278
00:12:51,855 --> 00:12:55,395
I can try to find the exact language,
but it was when Trump did 240% tariffs

279
00:12:55,395 --> 00:12:56,775
and they were, they did something like.

280
00:12:57,435 --> 00:12:57,765
Okay.

281
00:12:57,765 --> 00:13:02,475
Like, this doesn't mean anything after
120%, so we're just gonna stop at 120%.

282
00:13:02,715 --> 00:13:03,375
Like whatever,

283
00:13:04,005 --> 00:13:05,385
Marko Papic: 1000000000%.

284
00:13:05,385 --> 00:13:05,565
No.

285
00:13:05,565 --> 00:13:10,575
So, uh, the, so I, I, I, I basically
think, look, the Chinese are saying like,

286
00:13:10,995 --> 00:13:15,555
you do something on October 2nd, we do
something on October 8th, and then Friday

287
00:13:15,555 --> 00:13:21,855
rolls along and Donald Trump reacts, loses
his school and he's like, this is nuts.

288
00:13:21,855 --> 00:13:26,295
And then 24 hours later he's like,
ha, psych, I was just kidding.

289
00:13:26,295 --> 00:13:27,285
Everything is gonna be fine.

290
00:13:27,285 --> 00:13:28,275
So what happened here?

291
00:13:28,875 --> 00:13:30,525
I'll tell you what I
think happened, Jacob.

292
00:13:30,645 --> 00:13:34,965
I think there's two tracks in
American, uh, foreign policy right now.

293
00:13:35,865 --> 00:13:40,725
There's a sort of a bureaucratic inertia,
and if you think about how bureaucracy

294
00:13:40,725 --> 00:13:46,335
works, just like a lever, just like
a toggle, and the toggle is like from

295
00:13:46,335 --> 00:13:53,355
one to 10, one being like, let's be
nice to China, 10 being, you know, time

296
00:13:53,355 --> 00:13:55,515
to fuel up the nukes in nuke China.

297
00:13:56,475 --> 00:14:01,905
And so obviously since 2017, Donald Trump
himself moved the toggle from one to six.

298
00:14:02,475 --> 00:14:06,615
And then interestingly, Joe
Biden moved it from six to eight.

299
00:14:06,710 --> 00:14:07,130
Mm-hmm.

300
00:14:08,475 --> 00:14:14,025
You know, and so that's just the
default setting of the bureaucracy.

301
00:14:14,535 --> 00:14:20,145
And that bureaucracy continues to initiate
Section 3 0 1 investigations in China,

302
00:14:21,045 --> 00:14:23,655
uh, which take months to get done.

303
00:14:24,315 --> 00:14:27,825
There's a, there's a bureaucratic
and technocratic process

304
00:14:27,825 --> 00:14:29,235
in these investigations.

305
00:14:29,565 --> 00:14:33,795
There's serious people who get paid
good money, who are well educated,

306
00:14:33,795 --> 00:14:37,545
who are working on all these, oh, you
know, we need to close the loophole

307
00:14:37,545 --> 00:14:38,805
because of these subsidiaries.

308
00:14:38,805 --> 00:14:39,525
Let's do that.

309
00:14:40,485 --> 00:14:44,235
And that's, that's one layer of the cake.

310
00:14:44,385 --> 00:14:49,275
And then there's the icing,
which is very orange and very,

311
00:14:49,275 --> 00:14:51,315
very like profoundly awesome.

312
00:14:51,675 --> 00:14:52,605
And that's Donald Trump.

313
00:14:53,265 --> 00:14:57,195
And he does not have any, I think,
awareness of what his own bureaucracy

314
00:14:57,195 --> 00:14:59,115
is doing on those other layers.

315
00:14:59,775 --> 00:15:02,205
And so when China retaliates against
something that, you know, the

316
00:15:02,205 --> 00:15:04,695
United States of America did, like
his administration did, he's like,

317
00:15:04,695 --> 00:15:08,295
whoa, Xi Jinping made a mistake,
but well, no, he's just reacting

318
00:15:08,295 --> 00:15:10,155
to what your government is doing.

319
00:15:10,425 --> 00:15:13,665
And then he realizes it, and then
he calms down 24 hours later, he

320
00:15:13,665 --> 00:15:15,465
probably has a snicker bar, right?

321
00:15:15,825 --> 00:15:17,295
Like the famous Snicker commercial.

322
00:15:17,805 --> 00:15:21,135
And he says, oh, okay, I
see what happened here.

323
00:15:21,135 --> 00:15:24,105
And as of course, Donald Trump said
a couple of months ago, or maybe even

324
00:15:24,105 --> 00:15:29,175
a couple of weeks ago, look, American
chip companies will sell chips to China.

325
00:15:29,205 --> 00:15:30,615
They want to sell chips to China.

326
00:15:30,615 --> 00:15:33,944
He wants them to sell chips to China so
they can continue to have a monopoly.

327
00:15:34,485 --> 00:15:39,105
And so I think that where this is headed
is Donald Trump who wants to deal with

328
00:15:39,105 --> 00:15:44,865
China and understands that there are
downsides to some of these export controls

329
00:15:44,865 --> 00:15:49,005
in a genuine way, not in sort of a silly,
Donald Trump just wants to make a deal

330
00:15:49,005 --> 00:15:50,865
way, but there's actual downside to.

331
00:15:51,974 --> 00:15:55,305
Effectively helping China
develop its own chip industry.

332
00:15:55,604 --> 00:15:57,074
You know, that's what America is doing.

333
00:15:57,375 --> 00:15:57,464
Jacob Shapiro: Mm-hmm.

334
00:15:58,155 --> 00:16:00,015
Marko Papic: I think that what you're
gonna see is Donald Trump is gonna

335
00:16:00,015 --> 00:16:03,944
win over that lower layer where he's
just gonna tell the bureaucracy, like,

336
00:16:03,944 --> 00:16:06,045
look, let's find a compromise here.

337
00:16:06,074 --> 00:16:07,875
And so, yes, I do think
there's gonna be a deal.

338
00:16:07,875 --> 00:16:13,545
And, and it's not just, uh, Scott Best
and Jameson Greer came out also with

339
00:16:13,545 --> 00:16:15,255
very sort of conciliatory comments.

340
00:16:15,255 --> 00:16:17,535
Like, oh, no, no, no, no, no,
no, we're gonna, we're gonna

341
00:16:17,535 --> 00:16:18,584
sit down with the Chinese.

342
00:16:18,584 --> 00:16:23,145
And I would say that this is where the
TikTok deal is also important, because

343
00:16:23,145 --> 00:16:28,905
speaking to people with contexts in
China itself, what I've been told from

344
00:16:29,324 --> 00:16:36,765
my onshore context is that the TikTok
deal actually allowed a creation of, you

345
00:16:36,765 --> 00:16:38,415
know, it wasn't that relevant as a deal.

346
00:16:38,415 --> 00:16:41,505
Like nobody's really like sitting here
like wondering where TikTok is going.

347
00:16:41,505 --> 00:16:45,824
But what it did is it created C
news and connectivity at very top.

348
00:16:46,875 --> 00:16:48,045
And so there's finally.

349
00:16:48,630 --> 00:16:52,050
Channels of communication, whereas
there weren't really in April when

350
00:16:52,050 --> 00:16:58,770
President Trump just went on a tariff
tirade after the, after the TikTok

351
00:16:58,770 --> 00:17:01,590
deal was settled, even though the
deal itself was not that important.

352
00:17:01,590 --> 00:17:07,980
The mechanism to get the deal done means
that people in power in both China and us

353
00:17:08,010 --> 00:17:11,760
have a way to text each other, have a way
to call each other, have a way to be like,

354
00:17:12,000 --> 00:17:14,220
yo, why are you restricting rare earths?

355
00:17:14,220 --> 00:17:18,870
Well, because you guys just a week
earlier restricted semiconductors.

356
00:17:18,870 --> 00:17:19,380
No, we didn't.

357
00:17:19,440 --> 00:17:19,890
Yeah, you did.

358
00:17:19,890 --> 00:17:20,460
What about this?

359
00:17:20,670 --> 00:17:22,319
Oh no, no, that's just
standard stuff we're doing.

360
00:17:22,319 --> 00:17:26,250
'cause you guys arrivals, well, well,
you know, now we're gonna respond.

361
00:17:26,250 --> 00:17:31,440
And then you have that conversation
and it's not just two megaphones

362
00:17:31,440 --> 00:17:32,550
shouting into the ether.

363
00:17:32,550 --> 00:17:35,730
So, um, I think that's the
background of this story.

364
00:17:35,730 --> 00:17:37,800
And I, I don't think we're gonna
end up with a hundred percent

365
00:17:37,800 --> 00:17:40,380
tariffs on, on toys for Christmas.

366
00:17:41,445 --> 00:17:41,805
Jacob Shapiro: No.

367
00:17:41,805 --> 00:17:44,024
And, and if we do, I mean things
are gonna be terrible there.

368
00:17:44,024 --> 00:17:45,284
There's a couple things to say in there.

369
00:17:45,284 --> 00:17:48,044
You're right that the Biden administration
was much tougher and much more, much

370
00:17:48,044 --> 00:17:51,885
more surgical on Beijing, and you might
remember the Biden administration,

371
00:17:51,885 --> 00:17:56,385
one of their last gasp acts was
the semiconductor restriction plan.

372
00:17:56,385 --> 00:17:58,815
It was basically, some countries
have no restrictions, some

373
00:17:58,875 --> 00:18:00,615
have some level of restriction.

374
00:18:00,615 --> 00:18:02,655
Then there's the, the ultimate
level of restriction and China

375
00:18:02,655 --> 00:18:03,405
was gonna be on that list.

376
00:18:03,885 --> 00:18:06,794
The Trump administration threw that
plan out months ago now, saying

377
00:18:06,794 --> 00:18:09,225
we, we are gonna have something
that we're gonna put in its place.

378
00:18:09,375 --> 00:18:11,235
We still don't know what
that thing is in its place.

379
00:18:11,534 --> 00:18:13,905
And in the meantime, we've
had, for example, Nvidia.

380
00:18:14,625 --> 00:18:18,645
Uh, lobby again, some of the restrictions
that it was dealing with and then

381
00:18:18,735 --> 00:18:21,735
the Trump administration saying that
it was gonna take a cut of exports

382
00:18:21,735 --> 00:18:24,975
going to China, which is also an
interesting, um, sort of part of this.

383
00:18:25,274 --> 00:18:29,054
There's also like, I don't know if this is
still true, but when China first started

384
00:18:29,054 --> 00:18:32,205
making noise about this and they've been
doing this for years, like these export

385
00:18:32,205 --> 00:18:36,014
controls and some of these different
elements and mineral resources, yes, it is

386
00:18:36,014 --> 00:18:38,834
that they want to be able to control this
with the west and control the processing.

387
00:18:39,044 --> 00:18:41,475
But China, again, I'll just remind
our listeners, is a country of

388
00:18:41,475 --> 00:18:45,105
a billion people and the Chinese
government doesn't always know

389
00:18:45,105 --> 00:18:46,605
what its own companies are doing.

390
00:18:46,665 --> 00:18:52,064
So part of the process of getting Chinese
companies to apply for approval to export

391
00:18:52,064 --> 00:18:54,764
these things, yes, it was to create a
lever with the west, but it was also

392
00:18:54,764 --> 00:18:58,064
for the Chinese government to figure
out what the fuck they had going on.

393
00:18:58,274 --> 00:19:00,584
'cause they didn't even know what
kind of levers they were pulling.

394
00:19:00,584 --> 00:19:03,074
I think they, they have a better
sense of those levers now.

395
00:19:03,105 --> 00:19:03,405
Yes.

396
00:19:03,495 --> 00:19:06,735
But I wouldn't be surprised if there's
like a little bit of that in there.

397
00:19:07,004 --> 00:19:08,804
There's also, and, and, oh yeah, go ahead.

398
00:19:08,960 --> 00:19:09,320
Before.

399
00:19:09,340 --> 00:19:09,710
No, no, no, no.

400
00:19:09,710 --> 00:19:09,980
Please, please.

401
00:19:09,980 --> 00:19:10,670
Finish, finish, finish.

402
00:19:11,030 --> 00:19:13,430
Well, the, the last thing I just
wanna say is, you know, I, I, I

403
00:19:13,430 --> 00:19:17,810
talked to a guy who's, who's in the
rare earth refining processing space

404
00:19:17,810 --> 00:19:23,060
and who was trying, um, to basically
bring that to the United States.

405
00:19:23,060 --> 00:19:25,700
And I was asking him, well, I, I
texted him today and I was like, you

406
00:19:25,700 --> 00:19:27,020
must be having an interesting week.

407
00:19:27,020 --> 00:19:28,730
And he said, yeah, I am
having an interesting week.

408
00:19:28,730 --> 00:19:30,980
And I asked him, is it
anything more than talk?

409
00:19:31,580 --> 00:19:33,890
And his answer was
basically like, not really.

410
00:19:33,920 --> 00:19:35,300
Like people are freaking out.

411
00:19:35,300 --> 00:19:38,720
They're saying lots of things in public,
but the shift from, hey, this is a

412
00:19:38,720 --> 00:19:43,790
problem to no, we're actually going to
spend the money to have CapEx to refine

413
00:19:43,790 --> 00:19:47,060
and process these things and countries
that are, that are the United States

414
00:19:47,060 --> 00:19:47,989
are friendly to the United States.

415
00:19:48,290 --> 00:19:49,940
Like I don't think we're
exactly there there yet.

416
00:19:49,940 --> 00:19:52,880
And he expects some kind
of short term deal as well.

417
00:19:52,880 --> 00:19:56,330
All and all of which is to say, and I
think you and I have both been on this

418
00:19:56,330 --> 00:19:59,840
from different angles from the very
beginning, which is Trump's instinct,

419
00:19:59,840 --> 00:20:01,370
I think is to make a deal with China.

420
00:20:02,250 --> 00:20:04,890
Much to the chagrin of Peter
Navarro and the other China Hawks

421
00:20:04,890 --> 00:20:06,150
that he has in his administration.

422
00:20:06,150 --> 00:20:09,180
And people like Jameson Greer and
Scott Besson are cool with that.

423
00:20:09,180 --> 00:20:12,390
And I think if Trump, if it was up to
Trump, like he would announce some deal

424
00:20:12,390 --> 00:20:15,510
and there would be a grand US China
bargain and everything would be fine.

425
00:20:15,900 --> 00:20:18,210
The flip side of that is that some
of the things that his government

426
00:20:18,210 --> 00:20:21,690
is doing and some of the things
that he says right, is the exact

427
00:20:21,690 --> 00:20:23,520
opposite, which is full decoupling.

428
00:20:23,790 --> 00:20:26,520
Like there's not gonna be any
future in the US China relationship.

429
00:20:26,520 --> 00:20:27,870
These are geopolitical rivals.

430
00:20:27,900 --> 00:20:30,540
And I don't even think Trump, like
there's no consistency with him.

431
00:20:30,540 --> 00:20:32,550
And I think the Chinese
have at least realized that.

432
00:20:32,760 --> 00:20:35,340
And so they have to punch the bully
in the mouth when the bully comes at

433
00:20:35,340 --> 00:20:37,050
them with something like the 50% rule.

434
00:20:37,380 --> 00:20:39,930
But they also ultimately have
economic problems of their own.

435
00:20:39,930 --> 00:20:43,350
And if they can have a short-term deal
whose provisions they won't live up

436
00:20:43,350 --> 00:20:47,520
to, like, so for, for any investors or
folks who have companies, you should

437
00:20:47,580 --> 00:20:51,360
behave as if there is no deal because
I'll, I'll put my neck out there and

438
00:20:51,360 --> 00:20:54,930
say in five years it doesn't matter,
like the US and China are decoupling.

439
00:20:54,960 --> 00:20:57,300
Like it doesn't matter if we
have some kind of short-term deal

440
00:20:57,300 --> 00:20:58,320
or whatever else is happening.

441
00:20:58,350 --> 00:20:58,715
But anyway, just.

442
00:20:59,685 --> 00:21:00,045
Go from there.

443
00:21:00,045 --> 00:21:00,225
Marko Papic: Cool.

444
00:21:00,225 --> 00:21:02,025
Okay, so we have some disagreements.

445
00:21:02,085 --> 00:21:02,445
Great.

446
00:21:02,565 --> 00:21:03,195
Which is good.

447
00:21:03,585 --> 00:21:04,155
Which is good.

448
00:21:04,425 --> 00:21:09,255
So first of all, I think, uh, the onshore
narrative in China, like if you were

449
00:21:09,255 --> 00:21:13,935
to spend some time reading op-eds in
Mandarin in China, which I don't, but

450
00:21:13,935 --> 00:21:18,465
I'm told what they are is effectively
there's no urgency for anything.

451
00:21:18,825 --> 00:21:22,215
There is no urgency to even
punch the bully in the mouth,

452
00:21:22,215 --> 00:21:22,905
although I agree with you.

453
00:21:22,905 --> 00:21:23,325
They did.

454
00:21:23,805 --> 00:21:27,105
They, they finally kind of did
something, but there's no urgency.

455
00:21:27,105 --> 00:21:30,885
And that's why the comments on
Saturday were so conciliatory.

456
00:21:30,885 --> 00:21:32,985
They were like, Hey guys,
this isn't export bans.

457
00:21:32,985 --> 00:21:34,785
We're not banning export of rare Earth.

458
00:21:34,785 --> 00:21:35,385
Relax.

459
00:21:36,855 --> 00:21:38,175
The issue is they do want a deal.

460
00:21:38,175 --> 00:21:41,415
And the reason is that the onshore
commentary, if you were reading like

461
00:21:41,415 --> 00:21:46,785
the equivalent of a New York Times op-ed
in China, the consensus in China is

462
00:21:46,785 --> 00:21:51,585
the United States of America is gonna
collapse into a black hole of Civil War

463
00:21:52,125 --> 00:21:56,505
demographic decline, racial tensions, and.

464
00:21:56,909 --> 00:21:57,840
Complete collapse.

465
00:21:57,870 --> 00:21:58,020
Yeah.

466
00:21:58,110 --> 00:21:58,620
Late stage

467
00:21:58,620 --> 00:21:59,310
Jacob Shapiro: capitalism.

468
00:21:59,310 --> 00:22:01,080
The, the Marxists were, were right.

469
00:22:01,830 --> 00:22:02,250
Marko Papic: Yeah.

470
00:22:02,639 --> 00:22:04,919
So what's the rush?

471
00:22:05,189 --> 00:22:06,000
There's no rush.

472
00:22:06,330 --> 00:22:08,310
You know, like, let's
make a deal with Trump.

473
00:22:08,879 --> 00:22:11,850
And I think that everyone in China
completely understands something

474
00:22:11,850 --> 00:22:14,760
that I was saying on this podcast,
like a year, like when we started

475
00:22:14,760 --> 00:22:18,510
and before that on your podcast,
Trump will make a deal with China.

476
00:22:18,510 --> 00:22:20,550
I said this in February of 2024.

477
00:22:20,550 --> 00:22:26,100
Like I've consistently, like Trump
is not a national security hawk.

478
00:22:26,159 --> 00:22:32,730
You don't put Tulsi Gabbard as the head
of your, you know, um, national security

479
00:22:33,570 --> 00:22:35,100
if you are a national security hawk.

480
00:22:35,100 --> 00:22:35,790
He's not.

481
00:22:36,000 --> 00:22:37,290
He is mercantilist.

482
00:22:37,290 --> 00:22:40,830
And I actually think where we disagree a
little bit is I actually think that his

483
00:22:40,830 --> 00:22:43,560
approach is the more optimal approach.

484
00:22:45,015 --> 00:22:48,015
In a multipolar world, it
doesn't pay to decouple.

485
00:22:48,585 --> 00:22:53,865
And I think the big risk for the US is
that by restricting export of American

486
00:22:53,865 --> 00:22:58,125
technology, often a couple of generations
late, you will incentivize China to

487
00:22:58,125 --> 00:23:00,255
become very good at its own technology.

488
00:23:00,255 --> 00:23:03,645
Alternative technologies that you
have no pre you have no input into.

489
00:23:04,005 --> 00:23:06,945
But anyways, what I wanna like really
emphasize here is that I think that

490
00:23:06,945 --> 00:23:08,415
the Chinese are perfectly fine.

491
00:23:08,415 --> 00:23:11,385
They understand that this is a
limited window where maybe they

492
00:23:11,385 --> 00:23:13,635
have somebody who's a little bit
different from what's coming.

493
00:23:13,905 --> 00:23:19,575
You know, whether it's JD Vance or a OC, I
can see a world in which whoever inherits

494
00:23:19,575 --> 00:23:23,955
the presidency after President Trump
is much tougher on China and, and adopt

495
00:23:23,955 --> 00:23:25,905
the Jake Sullivan Joe Biden approach.

496
00:23:26,685 --> 00:23:29,865
Uh, but they're cool with that because
they just don't really think they're in

497
00:23:29,865 --> 00:23:32,145
a rush, uh, because America's collapsing.

498
00:23:32,145 --> 00:23:36,045
And that narrative of American
collapse is almost like a

499
00:23:36,045 --> 00:23:37,275
really good thing for the world.

500
00:23:38,219 --> 00:23:40,469
It means that China's not
gonna do something stupid.

501
00:23:41,189 --> 00:23:44,520
Um, and if I was advising President
Xi, I would say that that narrative

502
00:23:44,520 --> 00:23:49,679
is, you know, while very pleasing to
read, I'm sure in those New York Times

503
00:23:49,679 --> 00:23:55,800
equivalent op-eds in China, you're kind
of reading what's very pleasing to you.

504
00:23:56,070 --> 00:23:59,639
You know, it's sort of like a liberal
reading, a guardian oped, you know?

505
00:24:00,090 --> 00:24:04,260
Jacob Shapiro: Uh, yeah, I, well, I
mean, I'm not reading that version of,

506
00:24:04,320 --> 00:24:09,899
of the commentary in Chinese, but my,
my, my sense is more that it's in the

507
00:24:09,899 --> 00:24:13,530
same way that the, that any average
student in the United States is taught

508
00:24:13,530 --> 00:24:16,409
that the United States is a beacon
of liberalism and individual rights.

509
00:24:16,409 --> 00:24:18,780
And the United States stands
up for these things like China.

510
00:24:18,840 --> 00:24:22,740
Like, you know, Xi Jinping himself
was educated in a Marxist framework,

511
00:24:23,100 --> 00:24:25,620
and he thinks of the world through
a, a Marxist point of view.

512
00:24:25,620 --> 00:24:28,260
So, I, I, I don't know that they're
thinking that it's gonna be civil

513
00:24:28,260 --> 00:24:29,550
war and carnage in the streets.

514
00:24:29,550 --> 00:24:31,620
My interpretation of.

515
00:24:32,280 --> 00:24:35,100
Intelligentsia in China has
always just been more, yeah.

516
00:24:35,100 --> 00:24:36,780
Like this is late stage capitalism.

517
00:24:36,780 --> 00:24:37,110
Okay.

518
00:24:37,110 --> 00:24:39,330
Like Marx was a little bit later
than he should have been, but like,

519
00:24:39,330 --> 00:24:43,770
eventually this system is going to,
is not going to work in the long term.

520
00:24:43,770 --> 00:24:47,530
And meanwhile, like we have socialism
with Chinese characteristics and, and

521
00:24:47,530 --> 00:24:49,380
everything, it, it seems a little more.

522
00:24:49,860 --> 00:24:50,665
So I think it's

523
00:24:50,670 --> 00:24:51,990
Marko Papic: going, I
think it's more than that.

524
00:24:51,990 --> 00:24:54,600
I think now it's about
technological, uh, yeah.

525
00:24:54,660 --> 00:24:55,770
Superiority of China.

526
00:24:55,770 --> 00:24:59,730
I, I think there's, there's, and, and I
think like, you know, deployment of, look,

527
00:24:59,730 --> 00:25:03,690
I mean, if you grew up in an authoritarian
state when you see, uh, you know, the

528
00:25:03,690 --> 00:25:07,740
military deployed to cities, like, you
know what that means in a Chinese context.

529
00:25:08,160 --> 00:25:09,900
But there's another thing I
wanna disagree with you on.

530
00:25:09,930 --> 00:25:12,120
Well, this wasn't really a
disagreement, this was just an

531
00:25:12,120 --> 00:25:13,860
intro to the real disagreement.

532
00:25:13,920 --> 00:25:17,370
And my real disagreement is I think
that decoupling is impossible.

533
00:25:18,480 --> 00:25:20,610
You know, and let me, and let
me explain why I say that.

534
00:25:21,930 --> 00:25:28,470
Um, the one, our, our, our
actual example of decoupling.

535
00:25:29,430 --> 00:25:34,950
In a modern industrial world and
equals one, our sample size is

536
00:25:34,950 --> 00:25:36,450
one, and that's the Cold War.

537
00:25:37,260 --> 00:25:41,850
And I really, really, really want
to emphasize how a historical and

538
00:25:41,850 --> 00:25:45,960
idiosyncratic and pat dependent
the Cold War was in 1945.

539
00:25:46,470 --> 00:25:49,200
I know I've said this before on our
podcast, but I just wanna emphasize

540
00:25:49,200 --> 00:25:51,660
in 1945, the world was destroyed.

541
00:25:52,680 --> 00:25:54,180
Like it was destroyed.

542
00:25:54,600 --> 00:25:57,600
You know, it looked like Gaza.

543
00:26:00,330 --> 00:26:01,830
It did it, it, it, it looked better

544
00:26:01,830 --> 00:26:02,220
Jacob Shapiro: than Gaza.

545
00:26:04,920 --> 00:26:09,840
Marko Papic: Large swats of the developed
worlds, yes, looked worse than gossip.

546
00:26:10,649 --> 00:26:10,860
Jacob Shapiro: No.

547
00:26:10,860 --> 00:26:14,070
Well, n well, no, because not
like even Germany didn't look

548
00:26:14,070 --> 00:26:15,810
that bad because like, oh my God,

549
00:26:15,870 --> 00:26:18,240
Marko Papic: okay, we don't have to get
into commentary of what Gaza looks like.

550
00:26:19,050 --> 00:26:20,040
I retract that.

551
00:26:21,270 --> 00:26:22,290
Jacob Shapiro: I win, I win.

552
00:26:22,350 --> 00:26:22,830
You get that?

553
00:26:22,830 --> 00:26:23,370
See that you do,

554
00:26:23,699 --> 00:26:24,090
Marko Papic: you win.

555
00:26:24,179 --> 00:26:27,750
Look, the point is that, um, the
world was completely destroyed.

556
00:26:27,750 --> 00:26:31,050
Like, you know, let me, let me,
let me emphasize the destruction.

557
00:26:31,050 --> 00:26:37,889
There were tens of millions of refugees
starving in Western Europe, not like

558
00:26:37,889 --> 00:26:40,980
in eastern Germany, like I'm talking
like the western side of Europe.

559
00:26:40,980 --> 00:26:41,820
Like in Belgium.

560
00:26:41,850 --> 00:26:44,520
People were starving to
that in freaking Brussels.

561
00:26:46,199 --> 00:26:50,610
Japan had two nuclear bombs dropped on it,
and multiple cities completely firebombed

562
00:26:50,909 --> 00:26:53,790
into like even worse destruction level.

563
00:26:53,790 --> 00:26:55,860
Like if you got hit with
a nuke, you were lucky.

564
00:26:56,550 --> 00:26:58,800
You know, you escaped the firebombing.

565
00:26:59,955 --> 00:27:01,155
China would have, and China

566
00:27:01,155 --> 00:27:02,115
Jacob Shapiro: went straight to Civil War.

567
00:27:02,115 --> 00:27:03,615
They were like, oh, world War Two's over.

568
00:27:03,615 --> 00:27:05,085
I would go that like,
let's, let's get to it.

569
00:27:05,835 --> 00:27:08,025
Marko Papic: They had another
four years of civil war.

570
00:27:08,925 --> 00:27:14,265
India was a colony of a
tired, weakened empire.

571
00:27:15,465 --> 00:27:19,185
And then you have, of course, Soviet
Union, which is just a complete mess.

572
00:27:19,185 --> 00:27:22,875
I mean, they, they eked out that
win by the skin of their teeth.

573
00:27:23,535 --> 00:27:26,895
Only really the United States of
America and some parts of Soviet

574
00:27:26,895 --> 00:27:28,665
Union still have an industrial plant.

575
00:27:28,725 --> 00:27:33,795
And so what I'm getting at is that when
the Cold War starts, you have large

576
00:27:33,795 --> 00:27:37,785
parts of the planet are tabula rasa
completely, completely erased, which

577
00:27:37,785 --> 00:27:40,695
is a fancy way of saying blank plate.

578
00:27:41,805 --> 00:27:45,975
And so you can craft a material reality.

579
00:27:46,500 --> 00:27:49,860
An industrial world
that truly is decoupled.

580
00:27:49,889 --> 00:27:53,760
'cause you're starting with large
swaths of the planet completely

581
00:27:53,790 --> 00:27:55,470
unintegrated or destroyed.

582
00:27:55,920 --> 00:27:58,980
And so if the Soviets want to
have their technological zone

583
00:27:58,980 --> 00:28:03,270
that's clearly decoupled from
the us, they can and vice versa.

584
00:28:03,990 --> 00:28:06,240
Now notice that that's
how Cold War started.

585
00:28:06,600 --> 00:28:10,650
That was the starting conditions
of the Cold War World War I.

586
00:28:11,220 --> 00:28:14,820
However, and World War II started
in a completely different world.

587
00:28:14,850 --> 00:28:17,250
They actually started
in a globalized world.

588
00:28:18,000 --> 00:28:21,810
So my favorite historian, Margaret
McMillan, you know, she wrote all

589
00:28:21,810 --> 00:28:23,040
these books about First World War.

590
00:28:23,040 --> 00:28:24,720
She really talks about
this in a great way.

591
00:28:24,720 --> 00:28:27,780
Like when World War I
starts, there are literally.

592
00:28:28,889 --> 00:28:33,540
Munitions companies that are like
building sea mines that are like

593
00:28:33,570 --> 00:28:35,729
30% owned by a German conglomerate.

594
00:28:35,729 --> 00:28:35,790
Yeah.

595
00:28:35,820 --> 00:28:37,530
And 40% owned by British.

596
00:28:37,620 --> 00:28:42,840
So the board meets when the war starts
and the board is like high fiving

597
00:28:42,840 --> 00:28:46,590
the Germans and the Brits are high
fiving, holy shit, we're going to war.

598
00:28:46,679 --> 00:28:47,040
Jacob Shapiro: Well, yeah.

599
00:28:47,040 --> 00:28:50,070
The, the, the munitions ones were the,
the British insurance companies that

600
00:28:50,070 --> 00:28:52,979
were ensuring German ships were not
high fiving and they were looking at

601
00:28:53,189 --> 00:28:54,699
themselves and being, what the hell?

602
00:28:54,699 --> 00:28:54,965
But you know what I mean?

603
00:28:56,189 --> 00:28:57,840
Marko Papic: What there's a German
guy and the British guy saying

604
00:28:57,840 --> 00:28:59,040
like, yo, we're gonna make money.

605
00:28:59,040 --> 00:29:00,270
I'll see you in six months.

606
00:29:00,629 --> 00:29:02,459
You know, I'm sorry about
what's gonna happen.

607
00:29:02,459 --> 00:29:03,360
It's gonna be fine.

608
00:29:03,360 --> 00:29:04,379
We'll back by Christmas.

609
00:29:04,379 --> 00:29:05,070
Everything is good.

610
00:29:05,189 --> 00:29:11,100
The point is that the world
was so, so integrated in 1914.

611
00:29:11,580 --> 00:29:15,360
And don't you make the mistake, and I
don't mean you Jacob, but don't you make

612
00:29:15,360 --> 00:29:19,110
the mistake to your listener to think that
the World War I somehow crept up on us.

613
00:29:19,350 --> 00:29:20,610
That's what everybody always says.

614
00:29:20,610 --> 00:29:21,449
Oh, but they didn't.

615
00:29:21,449 --> 00:29:22,320
No, they knew.

616
00:29:22,709 --> 00:29:25,889
They knew from mid 1890s.

617
00:29:26,490 --> 00:29:31,590
Everybody knew that Germany and Austria
would go to war with France, Russia, and

618
00:29:31,590 --> 00:29:33,780
the UK in some combination shape or form.

619
00:29:33,780 --> 00:29:38,760
Everybody knew everybody was looking
forward to it and yet they couldn't

620
00:29:38,760 --> 00:29:41,700
disentangle this technological reality.

621
00:29:41,940 --> 00:29:45,030
And now that's a world where
I actually think I can see

622
00:29:45,060 --> 00:29:46,470
maybe an argument being made.

623
00:29:46,470 --> 00:29:46,650
Yeah.

624
00:29:46,655 --> 00:29:48,750
But technology back then
was difficult to entangle.

625
00:29:48,750 --> 00:29:49,620
What are you talking about?

626
00:29:50,640 --> 00:29:56,640
Our levers, our tools, our components
were huge widgets and you know,

627
00:29:56,670 --> 00:29:58,830
giant things they rotate to.

628
00:29:58,830 --> 00:30:03,000
Today, it's so much more difficult to
disentangle when the components are

629
00:30:03,000 --> 00:30:06,090
like rare earth you don't even know
how to pronounce and neither do I.

630
00:30:06,120 --> 00:30:07,080
Lemme be very clear.

631
00:30:07,920 --> 00:30:12,900
And so I would say that the problem for
the world today is that we had 25 years.

632
00:30:13,410 --> 00:30:17,910
If not 35 years of genuine peace
and prosperity in a unipolar global

633
00:30:17,910 --> 00:30:21,510
system that America designed,
they became deeply intertwined.

634
00:30:21,510 --> 00:30:24,660
And so full decoupling is
probably never going to happen.

635
00:30:24,660 --> 00:30:29,790
However, however, I do believe that there
will be the technological decoupling in

636
00:30:29,790 --> 00:30:32,100
certain ways, but that's nothing to fear.

637
00:30:32,820 --> 00:30:37,020
I mean, I grew up in communist Yugoslavia,
Jacob, you grew up in, you know, a

638
00:30:37,050 --> 00:30:38,970
pillar of liberty and freedom in America.

639
00:30:39,630 --> 00:30:39,780
Jacob Shapiro: Yeah.

640
00:30:39,900 --> 00:30:43,620
Marko Papic: And if you were to send, if
a 12-year-old Jacob was going to send,

641
00:30:44,190 --> 00:30:51,960
you know, a 14-year-old Marco, a a, a
tape of Atlanta hawks with Dominique,

642
00:30:52,680 --> 00:30:55,615
you know, having their day in the sun,
if you were gonna send that to me, I,

643
00:30:55,615 --> 00:30:57,330
Jacob Shapiro: well hold,
I, I, I have to date myself.

644
00:30:57,330 --> 00:30:59,610
I unfortunately just
missed the Dominique era.

645
00:30:59,610 --> 00:31:02,310
My, I came of age during the
Mookie Blaylock, Steve Smith.

646
00:31:02,730 --> 00:31:03,990
Uh, oh, listen, I

647
00:31:03,990 --> 00:31:04,620
Marko Papic: love that team.

648
00:31:04,620 --> 00:31:07,425
Mookie Blaylock was, was, was one
of my favorite players by the way.

649
00:31:08,205 --> 00:31:12,404
Curiously looked almost
exactly like Michael Jordan.

650
00:31:12,735 --> 00:31:13,784
Almost like they were brothers.

651
00:31:13,814 --> 00:31:13,995
Jacob Shapiro: Yeah.

652
00:31:14,085 --> 00:31:15,314
Like a min, like a little mini me.

653
00:31:15,340 --> 00:31:15,620
Mm-hmm.

654
00:31:15,770 --> 00:31:18,165
Marko Papic: Like a le But
anyway, so like if you were to

655
00:31:18,165 --> 00:31:19,995
send me a VHS tape, guess what?

656
00:31:19,995 --> 00:31:20,745
It wouldn't work.

657
00:31:22,514 --> 00:31:26,024
And poor Marco trapped in Communist
Yugoslavia would've not been able to

658
00:31:26,024 --> 00:31:29,534
play that VHS tape because I was in a
different technological system than you.

659
00:31:30,014 --> 00:31:33,435
Similarly, when cell phones
started, when I moved from

660
00:31:33,435 --> 00:31:36,794
Europe to pursue my undergraduate
degree in Canada, guess what?

661
00:31:36,794 --> 00:31:37,845
My cell phone didn't work.

662
00:31:37,845 --> 00:31:39,345
I had to get a Trib band.

663
00:31:39,764 --> 00:31:40,665
It's okay.

664
00:31:41,085 --> 00:31:43,575
There will be some
technological decoupling.

665
00:31:43,965 --> 00:31:48,435
And I see a lot of, I hear a lot of
investment banks and commentators talking

666
00:31:48,435 --> 00:31:52,274
about how that will cause the world
to go on two different No, it won't.

667
00:31:52,905 --> 00:31:58,754
All it will do is it will lead
to entrepreneurs building systems

668
00:31:58,754 --> 00:32:04,665
that can read both technological,
um, both, both technological, uh.

669
00:32:05,490 --> 00:32:07,740
Pillars, which is exactly
what happened with phones.

670
00:32:08,220 --> 00:32:11,580
You know, Nokia came up with a
tri ban phone that did work in

671
00:32:11,580 --> 00:32:13,140
both Japan and North America.

672
00:32:13,170 --> 00:32:14,100
And Europe.

673
00:32:14,280 --> 00:32:16,410
And yes, there were VHS players.

674
00:32:16,440 --> 00:32:21,480
There were literally, they could
flip between Pal Secum and NTSC.

675
00:32:21,510 --> 00:32:22,830
Like, yeah, that's how old I am.

676
00:32:22,830 --> 00:32:23,460
I know that stuff.

677
00:32:23,790 --> 00:32:26,550
So the point is, somebody's gonna
figure this out, just like we

678
00:32:26,550 --> 00:32:29,250
had in early desktop computers.

679
00:32:29,250 --> 00:32:31,800
You know, you are on the MAC
system, I'm on the Microsoft system.

680
00:32:31,800 --> 00:32:35,760
Eventually, yes, you could read the
files from one system to another,

681
00:32:35,760 --> 00:32:37,590
and now we're seamlessly integrated.

682
00:32:38,070 --> 00:32:42,600
So I think that we are overstating
the decoupling massively.

683
00:32:42,600 --> 00:32:45,750
I don't think the decoupling is really
what we should be thinking about.

684
00:32:45,750 --> 00:32:50,940
I think if World War II starts Jacob,
it's gonna start with both countries

685
00:32:50,940 --> 00:32:54,540
being very deeply integrated,
and I think Donald Trump, to his

686
00:32:54,540 --> 00:32:56,250
credit, has figured that out.

687
00:32:56,669 --> 00:33:00,960
I think he has figured out that it's very
difficult to completely decouple, and that

688
00:33:01,020 --> 00:33:03,389
not only is it difficult, it's stupid.

689
00:33:03,960 --> 00:33:08,490
It means that American companies
cannot make money off of China, the

690
00:33:08,490 --> 00:33:12,115
second largest economy in the world,
which is objectively a mistake.

691
00:33:14,865 --> 00:33:19,064
Jacob Shapiro: I love how, how
optimistic, um, you were in that.

692
00:33:20,054 --> 00:33:22,185
Um, that was really like, uh, I like it.

693
00:33:22,185 --> 00:33:23,024
I, I, you're right.

694
00:33:23,024 --> 00:33:25,004
I, I do, I do disagree with you.

695
00:33:25,215 --> 00:33:27,225
I'm gonna quote the guy
who's figured this out.

696
00:33:27,254 --> 00:33:29,865
Again, quote, we have the ultimate export.

697
00:33:29,925 --> 00:33:31,514
We have import and we have export.

698
00:33:31,544 --> 00:33:33,284
We import from China, massive amounts.

699
00:33:33,284 --> 00:33:35,804
And, you know, maybe we'll
have to stop doing that, but I

700
00:33:35,804 --> 00:33:37,064
don't know exactly what it is.

701
00:33:37,125 --> 00:33:38,054
Neither do you.

702
00:33:38,355 --> 00:33:39,284
Neither does anybody.

703
00:33:39,284 --> 00:33:41,804
This is not a guy who knows
what he's talking about.

704
00:33:41,804 --> 00:33:43,304
Marco, you're giving him way.

705
00:33:43,800 --> 00:33:45,570
Way too much credit that
he's something, his gut,

706
00:33:45,989 --> 00:33:47,969
Marko Papic: I think his gut
is in the right place, man.

707
00:33:48,060 --> 00:33:50,699
You know, and the fact,
listen, if that quote, he

708
00:33:50,699 --> 00:33:55,020
Jacob Shapiro: has a wonderful sense of
where power is and when it comes to trade,

709
00:33:55,229 --> 00:33:59,699
the United States has certain levers that
it is far and away better than China on.

710
00:33:59,729 --> 00:34:00,120
Okay?

711
00:34:00,389 --> 00:34:02,340
But a lot of them, it's China.

712
00:34:02,340 --> 00:34:04,469
I, I say this a lot in my
presentations right now.

713
00:34:04,469 --> 00:34:07,169
I, I put up a picture of William
McKinley and I ask audiences,

714
00:34:07,169 --> 00:34:08,190
do you know who this guy is?

715
00:34:08,190 --> 00:34:10,679
And literally, like, 1% of
audiences know who it is.

716
00:34:10,679 --> 00:34:11,969
And I say, this is William McKinley.

717
00:34:12,089 --> 00:34:15,120
He literally referred to himself
as a quote unquote tariff man.

718
00:34:15,179 --> 00:34:17,159
And Donald Trump loves to
talk about him all the time.

719
00:34:17,190 --> 00:34:18,900
And he imposed tariffs across the board.

720
00:34:18,929 --> 00:34:21,120
And when he imposed tariffs
across the board, which.

721
00:34:21,310 --> 00:34:25,179
Good for the US economy in that pre-World
war I world that you're talking about.

722
00:34:25,179 --> 00:34:27,639
By the way, I hope you don't
turn into the Norman angle of, of

723
00:34:27,639 --> 00:34:29,469
globalization, like the great illusion.

724
00:34:29,500 --> 00:34:29,679
Yeah.

725
00:34:29,679 --> 00:34:30,395
That because like you're,
you're That's right.

726
00:34:30,395 --> 00:34:31,570
You're flirting with it a little bit.

727
00:34:31,960 --> 00:34:34,989
Um, when, when William McKinley did
that, the United States was making

728
00:34:34,989 --> 00:34:38,199
something like 30% of the manufactured
products that were in the world.

729
00:34:38,199 --> 00:34:40,330
And the Brits had another 20% Right.

730
00:34:40,389 --> 00:34:42,159
The Chinese and the Japanese
weren't doing any of that.

731
00:34:42,159 --> 00:34:43,900
The Japanese were just starting to rev up.

732
00:34:43,900 --> 00:34:45,219
The Chinese were a morass.

733
00:34:45,219 --> 00:34:48,670
India was getting dominated, um,
you know, by a couple thousand

734
00:34:48,670 --> 00:34:50,739
British soldiers and everything else.

735
00:34:51,219 --> 00:34:52,690
You flip that to today.

736
00:34:53,070 --> 00:34:57,390
China wins, China wins on ships,
it wins on, you know, active

737
00:34:57,390 --> 00:34:58,440
pharmaceutical ingredients.

738
00:34:58,440 --> 00:35:00,360
I guess we're not gonna have
Tylenol in this country anymore.

739
00:35:00,360 --> 00:35:02,850
But if you did want Tylenol for,
you're a kid with an ear infection,

740
00:35:02,850 --> 00:35:05,520
like probably the API is coming
either from India or China.

741
00:35:05,940 --> 00:35:07,380
Agricultural, machinery, fertile.

742
00:35:07,380 --> 00:35:09,960
Like you start going down the list
of things the United States is,

743
00:35:10,020 --> 00:35:11,250
but doesn't that prove my point?

744
00:35:11,759 --> 00:35:12,900
But doesn't that prove my point?

745
00:35:13,110 --> 00:35:14,009
It does, it does.

746
00:35:14,009 --> 00:35:15,030
It does prove your point today.

747
00:35:15,030 --> 00:35:17,820
And I think they are deeply
interconnected and I think any person

748
00:35:17,820 --> 00:35:20,910
who wants to fight a trade war with
China and then is the one who is

749
00:35:20,910 --> 00:35:22,740
responsible for what happens afterwards.

750
00:35:22,980 --> 00:35:26,100
Like maybe, you know, president Trump, the
first administration was a little bit more

751
00:35:26,100 --> 00:35:29,370
muscular and he loves to go after China
on the campaign, Trump, but when he's the

752
00:35:29,370 --> 00:35:32,820
one sitting in the White House and he's
looking at the inflation numbers and he's

753
00:35:32,820 --> 00:35:36,180
looking at all the things that cannot
be manufactured in the United States.

754
00:35:36,180 --> 00:35:39,750
All the things, by the way that he pushed
to be manufactured in the United States

755
00:35:39,750 --> 00:35:43,319
during his first term, in which we are
no closer to manufacturing in the United

756
00:35:43,319 --> 00:35:44,670
States than we were in the first term.

757
00:35:44,670 --> 00:35:44,910
I think you're

758
00:35:44,910 --> 00:35:47,130
Marko Papic: just, but you,
you are over indexing on my

759
00:35:47,130 --> 00:35:49,050
point that Trump has a good.

760
00:35:50,315 --> 00:35:53,945
What you should be overindexing is
that you just laid the case for why

761
00:35:53,945 --> 00:35:55,475
there's no way we're gonna decouple.

762
00:35:55,475 --> 00:35:56,465
And it's not Donald Trump.

763
00:35:56,465 --> 00:35:57,095
Who's confused?

764
00:35:57,095 --> 00:35:59,855
It's Joe Biden who was confused and Jake

765
00:35:59,855 --> 00:36:00,275
Jacob Shapiro: Sullivan.

766
00:36:00,485 --> 00:36:02,465
Yeah, I mean that's Joe Biden's confused.

767
00:36:02,465 --> 00:36:03,275
That's a low Yes.

768
00:36:03,275 --> 00:36:06,305
Joe Biden was, was was
confused and is confused.

769
00:36:06,305 --> 00:36:06,390
Well wait,

770
00:36:06,695 --> 00:36:08,585
Marko Papic: well, lemme just explain
what I mean by the, the statement.

771
00:36:08,585 --> 00:36:11,495
Like, like I'm not trying to
make a domestic political point.

772
00:36:11,495 --> 00:36:15,695
I'm just saying that Donald Trump, I
never took him seriously when he did

773
00:36:15,695 --> 00:36:19,715
impose the tariffs at 800% in China,
I think that Donald Donald Trump was

774
00:36:19,715 --> 00:36:21,185
always gonna make a deal with China.

775
00:36:21,245 --> 00:36:24,995
He went on the campaign trail saying
he was cool with BYD building ca uh,

776
00:36:25,025 --> 00:36:31,415
factories in Ohio because it's smart,
it's fixed asset investment that America

777
00:36:31,415 --> 00:36:32,855
can nationalize in case of a war.

778
00:36:32,855 --> 00:36:32,945
Mm-hmm.

779
00:36:32,945 --> 00:36:35,975
Of course you should let
China build BYD factories.

780
00:36:35,975 --> 00:36:39,904
And Donald Trump had the balls to
say that in front of a crowd full

781
00:36:39,904 --> 00:36:43,175
of potential manufacturing blue
collar laborers who are not gonna

782
00:36:43,175 --> 00:36:44,285
work in there because of automation.

783
00:36:44,525 --> 00:36:48,275
But this isn't, this isn't about
whether Donald Trump is right or not.

784
00:36:48,870 --> 00:36:52,410
I just never took him seriously when
he's aggressive on China, because I take

785
00:36:52,410 --> 00:36:56,970
him seriously that he wants to make this
deal because of everything you just said.

786
00:36:56,970 --> 00:37:00,780
And you laid out a plethora of evidence
why it's really difficult to decouple,

787
00:37:00,870 --> 00:37:02,250
and that's what we should be focusing on.

788
00:37:02,250 --> 00:37:04,650
Jacob Shapiro: Well, and and I think
you were exactly right earlier, by

789
00:37:04,650 --> 00:37:08,010
the way, when you said that gov,
president Trump doesn't always

790
00:37:08,010 --> 00:37:09,420
know what his bureaucracy is doing.

791
00:37:09,600 --> 00:37:11,250
And by the way, that's
true of any executive like

792
00:37:11,250 --> 00:37:12,720
bureaucracies are machines, right?

793
00:37:12,720 --> 00:37:14,820
And they're frankensteins,
they have lifes of their own.

794
00:37:14,820 --> 00:37:17,160
And a good executive has to
come in and reign them back in

795
00:37:17,160 --> 00:37:19,800
because like, that's what, that's
what happens with bureaucracies.

796
00:37:20,280 --> 00:37:21,805
Um, but that said, the.

797
00:37:22,770 --> 00:37:27,090
I would say most of the bureaucracy
is aligned against President Trump.

798
00:37:27,150 --> 00:37:30,630
And Yes, public, yes, public opinion
is aligned against President Trump.

799
00:37:30,630 --> 00:37:33,510
And, and the interesting thing about
Trump is he rode what you're talking

800
00:37:33,510 --> 00:37:36,930
like, I, I agree with you that that's
what he wants to do, but also part of

801
00:37:36,930 --> 00:37:40,380
the reason he got elected the first
time was because he talked about China.

802
00:37:40,975 --> 00:37:44,125
In a way that was way more
serious than anybody else did.

803
00:37:44,125 --> 00:37:45,355
So he is got the Santi China thing.

804
00:37:45,355 --> 00:37:47,155
And the other thing, and I'll,
I'll let you cook in a second.

805
00:37:47,155 --> 00:37:49,615
I just wanna say, I think we actually
do agree, and I laid out that case.

806
00:37:49,615 --> 00:37:53,395
The only thing I wanna say back to you
is I completely agree with you that it

807
00:37:53,395 --> 00:37:58,705
is irrational and asinine and crazy to,
for the United States to try and decouple

808
00:37:58,705 --> 00:38:00,235
from China, it would be disastrous.

809
00:38:00,475 --> 00:38:02,005
That does not mean it won't happen.

810
00:38:02,635 --> 00:38:03,985
Well let, it's totally irrational.

811
00:38:03,985 --> 00:38:05,605
It does not make any sense.

812
00:38:05,605 --> 00:38:09,175
But this is where geopolitics falls
off the rails because sometimes actors

813
00:38:09,175 --> 00:38:14,095
do irrational things for reasons that
are hard for rational cousins to divine

814
00:38:14,695 --> 00:38:17,845
Marko Papic: well, so, so first of
all, I I, I definitely took offense

815
00:38:17,875 --> 00:38:23,755
to the Norman Angle reference, you
know, for, you know, it's deep cop

816
00:38:23,755 --> 00:38:25,795
look at, that's a very deep cut.

817
00:38:26,095 --> 00:38:28,045
Just to be, just to repeat my point.

818
00:38:28,755 --> 00:38:32,715
My view is that when World War III
starts, it may very well start, and

819
00:38:32,715 --> 00:38:34,335
that's what Norman Engel was wrong about.

820
00:38:34,485 --> 00:38:34,695
Right.

821
00:38:34,695 --> 00:38:37,725
He thought that the level of
interconnectedness would prevent the war.

822
00:38:37,725 --> 00:38:41,025
I'm not saying that we are in a world
where, I'm just saying like World War

823
00:38:41,030 --> 00:38:44,745
War III will start maybe 10 years from
now, we will remain connected with China.

824
00:38:45,225 --> 00:38:45,315
Jacob Shapiro: Mm-hmm.

825
00:38:45,735 --> 00:38:50,265
Marko Papic: And I believe that because
of the 50 years of Cold War, most

826
00:38:50,265 --> 00:38:53,805
human beings listening to this podcast
want to light themselves on fire.

827
00:38:53,805 --> 00:38:55,275
Their brains blow up.

828
00:38:56,535 --> 00:38:58,905
They cannot process mentally.

829
00:38:59,265 --> 00:39:03,135
What I, the words that are coming
out of my mouth and the words that

830
00:39:03,135 --> 00:39:06,555
are coming out of my mouth is what
empirics and game theory proves,

831
00:39:07,365 --> 00:39:11,715
which is that in a multipolar world,
order enemies trade with one another.

832
00:39:12,225 --> 00:39:13,755
Sorry, end of sentence.

833
00:39:13,755 --> 00:39:14,355
That's it.

834
00:39:14,745 --> 00:39:18,285
So yeah, war can still happen, but
it will happen at a very high level

835
00:39:18,285 --> 00:39:21,255
of economic integration 'cause it's
just so difficult to disentangle.

836
00:39:21,255 --> 00:39:27,285
Namely 'cause your own allies steal market
share from you by trading with the enemy.

837
00:39:28,095 --> 00:39:28,995
That's the whole point.

838
00:39:28,995 --> 00:39:29,865
Like it's difficult.

839
00:39:29,865 --> 00:39:31,125
And that's what Trump tried to do.

840
00:39:31,185 --> 00:39:33,975
And quite frankly, he's given up because
the rest of the world is like, no,

841
00:39:33,975 --> 00:39:35,774
sorry, we're gonna trade with China now.

842
00:39:35,774 --> 00:39:36,075
Yeah.

843
00:39:36,075 --> 00:39:38,444
You know, like Europe is imposing
tariffs in China, but they're gonna

844
00:39:38,444 --> 00:39:42,134
make a deal separate from the US Now
there's a BYD factory coming into Spain.

845
00:39:42,134 --> 00:39:42,855
And what did they ask?

846
00:39:42,855 --> 00:39:44,265
They asked for IP boom.

847
00:39:44,265 --> 00:39:44,325
Yeah,

848
00:39:44,384 --> 00:39:45,194
Jacob Shapiro: that that's true.

849
00:39:45,194 --> 00:39:48,225
But, but one thing I forgot to do in
my intro was, did you see that thing

850
00:39:48,225 --> 00:39:49,814
that the Dutch did with this company?

851
00:39:49,814 --> 00:39:50,024
Yes.

852
00:39:50,895 --> 00:39:51,044
Yeah.

853
00:39:51,075 --> 00:39:51,225
Okay.

854
00:39:51,225 --> 00:39:54,194
Called Xperia, where they're basically
seizing a Chinese semiconductor.

855
00:39:54,194 --> 00:39:54,765
Oh, we all know.

856
00:39:55,035 --> 00:39:56,714
Marko Papic: We all know why
the Dutch are doing that.

857
00:39:58,125 --> 00:39:58,274
Why?

858
00:39:58,274 --> 00:39:59,174
You know what I'm gonna say?

859
00:39:59,355 --> 00:40:00,105
I know what the Dutch are doing.

860
00:40:00,105 --> 00:40:03,734
That the Dutch are doing that so that
they can shower themselves with money

861
00:40:03,734 --> 00:40:05,774
selling A SML machines to China.

862
00:40:06,015 --> 00:40:06,194
Jacob Shapiro: Yeah.

863
00:40:07,245 --> 00:40:07,424
Right.

864
00:40:07,424 --> 00:40:08,955
Which the United States
does not want them to do.

865
00:40:08,955 --> 00:40:09,314
To your point,

866
00:40:09,555 --> 00:40:10,634
Marko Papic: but, but they've done it.

867
00:40:10,935 --> 00:40:12,884
Even with Jake Solid and Joe Biden.

868
00:40:12,884 --> 00:40:15,044
Nobody cares in, let's say,
why should they listen?

869
00:40:15,225 --> 00:40:16,995
Listen, at some level, it's very simple.

870
00:40:16,995 --> 00:40:20,384
And I've said this before on this
podcast, France, in Netherlands, they're

871
00:40:20,384 --> 00:40:25,035
gonna tell America, listen, bro, world
War II starts, we're dying with you

872
00:40:25,035 --> 00:40:26,504
in the trenches against the Chinese.

873
00:40:28,150 --> 00:40:33,690
But until that moment, you know Emma
Manuel has to sell them air buses

874
00:40:34,230 --> 00:40:36,150
and I gotta sell them A SML machines.

875
00:40:36,150 --> 00:40:36,390
Why?

876
00:40:36,390 --> 00:40:39,360
'cause we need the
money to develop cruise.

877
00:40:39,360 --> 00:40:41,820
Miss sells with which to
help you fight the Chinese.

878
00:40:42,060 --> 00:40:43,350
Are you gonna give us that money?

879
00:40:44,055 --> 00:40:48,585
Are you going to buy air buses instead of
Boeings so that France has enough money

880
00:40:48,585 --> 00:40:51,075
to become a, to remain a viable ally?

881
00:40:51,075 --> 00:40:51,165
No.

882
00:40:51,640 --> 00:40:51,860
Jd,

883
00:40:51,865 --> 00:40:54,285
Jacob Shapiro: JD Vance wants them
to use that money to turn around and

884
00:40:54,285 --> 00:40:56,055
buy American, uh, defense product.

885
00:40:56,055 --> 00:40:56,265
Well,

886
00:40:56,265 --> 00:40:58,065
Marko Papic: and that's, you
know, and this is where this

887
00:40:58,065 --> 00:40:59,355
all kind of breaks apart.

888
00:40:59,355 --> 00:41:03,465
But, but one thing I wanna say is
that, uh, one last thing I wanna

889
00:41:03,465 --> 00:41:06,135
disagree with you on, and I know we
gotta pivot to X, but this is great.

890
00:41:06,135 --> 00:41:07,215
This is, this is a good discussion.

891
00:41:07,515 --> 00:41:09,645
The last thing I wanna say
is, like you said, bureaucracy

892
00:41:09,645 --> 00:41:11,205
is against Trump and China.

893
00:41:11,415 --> 00:41:13,155
You're 150%, right?

894
00:41:13,155 --> 00:41:19,095
So, uh, the national intelligence defense
community, all of course against China,

895
00:41:19,095 --> 00:41:22,095
I mean, they know what butters their
bread and it, it ain't world peace buddy.

896
00:41:22,455 --> 00:41:22,665
Jacob Shapiro: Nope.

897
00:41:22,845 --> 00:41:26,595
Marko Papic: So, so bureaucracy and
yes, I think there's a lot of vested

898
00:41:26,595 --> 00:41:30,165
interest against, um, the narrative
that it's impossible to decouple.

899
00:41:30,165 --> 00:41:32,325
But I do disagree with you on the people.

900
00:41:33,285 --> 00:41:35,955
And I have a chart that maybe
we can put in the show notes.

901
00:41:36,315 --> 00:41:38,325
But it shows something fascinating, Jacob.

902
00:41:38,385 --> 00:41:40,815
It's one of the most fascinating charts.

903
00:41:41,235 --> 00:41:46,935
It's an ipso poll done with, I
think the Chicago Council, and it

904
00:41:46,935 --> 00:41:51,945
shows that in 2016, about 30% of
Americans, 30% Republicans, 40% of

905
00:41:51,945 --> 00:41:57,915
Democrats agreed with a statement
that trade leads to jobs in America.

906
00:41:58,725 --> 00:41:58,875
Hmm.

907
00:41:59,805 --> 00:42:02,595
So your point is correct.

908
00:42:02,595 --> 00:42:06,315
In 2016, voters wanted a trade
war with China because they

909
00:42:06,315 --> 00:42:07,785
felt that the trade was unfair.

910
00:42:07,845 --> 00:42:10,215
And President Trump beat Hillary
Clinton as a result of it.

911
00:42:10,215 --> 00:42:11,205
I really believe that.

912
00:42:11,565 --> 00:42:12,435
And he delivered it.

913
00:42:12,525 --> 00:42:16,725
He satiated the demand that the
American public had in 2016.

914
00:42:17,205 --> 00:42:20,565
But since then, you know what the
current level is, Republican sup,

915
00:42:21,045 --> 00:42:23,295
Republican support is at about 65%.

916
00:42:23,625 --> 00:42:28,755
Democratic is 75%, and I would say
that it's thanks to Donald Trump.

917
00:42:29,025 --> 00:42:32,385
Donald Trump delivered what the
median voter wanted in 2016.

918
00:42:32,385 --> 00:42:35,475
What he and his administration
seems to be unaware of.

919
00:42:36,570 --> 00:42:40,500
Is that they should be patting themselves
on the back for what they delivered in

920
00:42:40,500 --> 00:42:45,240
2017 and 18 instead of tripling down on
policy that nobody in this country wants.

921
00:42:45,240 --> 00:42:50,880
And I have, I have so much data, I
have a cornucopia of charts, Jacob,

922
00:42:51,180 --> 00:42:55,080
that proves my points, tariffs and
trade are the least important political

923
00:42:55,080 --> 00:42:56,340
issue in the United States of America.

924
00:42:57,330 --> 00:42:58,800
You know, behind like abortion.

925
00:42:58,800 --> 00:43:00,450
Nobody cares about this stuff.

926
00:43:00,810 --> 00:43:04,470
And he's completely over indexing
on it, not knowing that what

927
00:43:04,470 --> 00:43:09,300
he should be doing is claiming
victory for delivering fair trade.

928
00:43:09,300 --> 00:43:12,540
Because clearly American voters
are now far more, they've doubled

929
00:43:12,540 --> 00:43:14,010
their support for globalization.

930
00:43:14,220 --> 00:43:15,540
That's, that's surprising.

931
00:43:15,540 --> 00:43:15,900
No,

932
00:43:17,095 --> 00:43:19,710
Jacob Shapiro: it, it is a little
surprising, but it also, if you

933
00:43:19,710 --> 00:43:21,810
pull the data on what Americans.

934
00:43:22,185 --> 00:43:26,444
Perceptions of China were in 2016 and
2017, and I haven't looked at the,

935
00:43:26,444 --> 00:43:27,585
the data in the last year or two.

936
00:43:27,585 --> 00:43:28,665
I doubt it's changed that much.

937
00:43:28,665 --> 00:43:32,625
But in 20 16, 20 17 old people hated
China 'cause it was communist China,

938
00:43:32,625 --> 00:43:33,794
part of the Cold War, everything else.

939
00:43:33,915 --> 00:43:36,314
But young Chinese people,
generally speaking, were

940
00:43:36,314 --> 00:43:37,904
interested in and liked Americans.

941
00:43:37,904 --> 00:43:42,225
And the same was true and over the course
of the first Trump administration and the

942
00:43:42,225 --> 00:43:47,415
Biden administration, um, that changed
where both youths on both sides now

943
00:43:47,444 --> 00:43:50,654
distrust each other at the same level
that the old guys from the Cold War do.

944
00:43:50,654 --> 00:43:53,294
So I, I think you're right that
you can point to data that shows

945
00:43:53,294 --> 00:43:55,305
that, um, about globalization.

946
00:43:55,305 --> 00:43:58,185
But I think you can also point to
data that the average median voter

947
00:43:58,185 --> 00:44:02,294
in the United States is animated
by a deep set fear of China.

948
00:44:02,294 --> 00:44:05,924
And then if you like, give them policies
and they have to fight between the,

949
00:44:05,924 --> 00:44:09,495
like their supportive globalization or
whatever else, um, or even their like,

950
00:44:09,495 --> 00:44:13,605
you know, cheap products at the Dollar
General versus let's stick it to China.

951
00:44:14,205 --> 00:44:16,935
Like for some, the fear thing will pop up
and for some the other thing will pop up.

952
00:44:16,935 --> 00:44:18,075
And I think the fear
will, I think for vast

953
00:44:18,075 --> 00:44:20,115
Marko Papic: majority, I'll,
I'll just make a call right now.

954
00:44:20,115 --> 00:44:22,875
I think for the vast majority it will
be economics over foreign policy.

955
00:44:22,875 --> 00:44:25,815
'cause foreign policy is,
again, completely and utterly

956
00:44:25,815 --> 00:44:27,075
irrelevant to most Americans.

957
00:44:27,075 --> 00:44:28,875
I mean, sorry, I'm not
saying that out my ass.

958
00:44:28,875 --> 00:44:30,735
I'm, I'm, I'm, again relying on pulse.

959
00:44:31,305 --> 00:44:36,765
So yes, I think, I think what you are
revealing is exactly evidence, again, for

960
00:44:36,765 --> 00:44:41,085
my view, which is that eventually when
World War III starts because young people

961
00:44:41,085 --> 00:44:42,375
hate each other, fine, you're right.

962
00:44:43,455 --> 00:44:46,605
It will do so at a very high
level of economic integration.

963
00:44:47,085 --> 00:44:47,145
Yeah.

964
00:44:47,175 --> 00:44:49,845
Because nobody, like, you're right.

965
00:44:49,875 --> 00:44:55,245
Like clearly, clearly, clearly sentiment
towards China has soured, but that

966
00:44:55,245 --> 00:45:01,095
sentiment towards China as an enemy,
as a, as a rival economic sentiment

967
00:45:01,095 --> 00:45:05,055
toward, towards globalization is
extremely high and nobody wants tariffs.

968
00:45:05,055 --> 00:45:05,415
So.

969
00:45:05,850 --> 00:45:10,170
The way I square those two views together
is that, yeah, like I think Americans

970
00:45:10,170 --> 00:45:13,980
have become much more anti-Chinese,
but no, they don't want to pay more for

971
00:45:13,980 --> 00:45:15,780
their Christmas toys as a result of it.

972
00:45:15,960 --> 00:45:19,050
And by the way, they're right,
the wisdom, and I know this

973
00:45:19,050 --> 00:45:20,460
is where we always disagree.

974
00:45:20,910 --> 00:45:23,820
In this particular case, I would
say the median voter is right.

975
00:45:23,820 --> 00:45:28,470
The median voter understands that buying
a toy from China does not fuel the Chinese

976
00:45:28,470 --> 00:45:31,110
Communist Party in its military machine.

977
00:45:31,410 --> 00:45:33,030
Oh yeah, it does, does not, you know, I

978
00:45:33,030 --> 00:45:35,670
Jacob Shapiro: agree here, like who
started World War I, to your point,

979
00:45:35,670 --> 00:45:38,370
the munitions guys, it wasn't, you
know, the people in the upper level

980
00:45:38,370 --> 00:45:41,160
of government wasn't these like people
on the street who just want the cheap

981
00:45:41,160 --> 00:45:42,480
toys, like Yeah, I'm, I'm with you.

982
00:45:43,860 --> 00:45:45,480
Marko Papic: But anyways, I
think, I think it's interesting.

983
00:45:45,509 --> 00:45:47,700
Uh, ultimately I think
we're getting a deal.

984
00:45:47,700 --> 00:45:49,980
I don't think a war is
starting like tomorrow.

985
00:45:50,130 --> 00:45:52,080
I also don't think this
deal is a grand bargain.

986
00:45:52,110 --> 00:45:53,460
I think we both agree with that.

987
00:45:53,880 --> 00:45:57,960
Uh, when Trump meets, which he in, in,
you know, South Korea for this Apex

988
00:45:57,960 --> 00:46:04,170
summit, uh, I think you should just
expect a truce that does not last beyond.

989
00:46:04,605 --> 00:46:05,955
Probably the Trump administration.

990
00:46:06,105 --> 00:46:07,545
I think we're both in,
in agreement in that.

991
00:46:08,055 --> 00:46:09,464
Do you think world worth
three's inevitable?

992
00:46:10,035 --> 00:46:11,055
No, absolutely not.

993
00:46:11,384 --> 00:46:12,105
Absolutely not.

994
00:46:12,105 --> 00:46:15,645
And I think we need a, a, a because,
you know, I think, I think we're

995
00:46:15,645 --> 00:46:19,214
gonna stay in a multipolar world
order for the next 50 years.

996
00:46:20,115 --> 00:46:23,654
Uh, maybe 20 years, maybe
something in between.

997
00:46:23,654 --> 00:46:28,424
And I think that the biggest geopolitical
story of the next 50 years, uh, or 20

998
00:46:28,424 --> 00:46:31,125
years is not gonna be China, US tensions.

999
00:46:31,185 --> 00:46:33,255
I think it's gonna be
dissolution of Russia.

1000
00:46:34,125 --> 00:46:40,515
And the process by which it's rotting
carcass is pulled sunder across

1001
00:46:40,515 --> 00:46:43,755
Eurasia by various other powers.

1002
00:46:43,785 --> 00:46:44,145
You know?

1003
00:46:44,145 --> 00:46:48,105
So I think that what's gonna be
very interesting is that us may

1004
00:46:48,105 --> 00:46:51,075
be in a very good position, but
for the, all the different reasons

1005
00:46:51,075 --> 00:46:52,065
than a lot of people think.

1006
00:46:52,605 --> 00:46:55,785
I think that, uh, the weakness of
Russia, I mean, you know, like if

1007
00:46:55,785 --> 00:46:59,955
the Ottoman Empire was the Eastern
question and the Sikh man of Europe.

1008
00:47:01,410 --> 00:47:04,710
Dominated European and global
geopolitics for a hundred years.

1009
00:47:04,740 --> 00:47:06,540
It was really the weakness
of Ottoman Empire.

1010
00:47:06,840 --> 00:47:10,920
Can you imagine what the weakness
of a country, the size of Russia.

1011
00:47:11,745 --> 00:47:15,555
Will mean for geopolitics, but I think we
should spend a whole podcast just on that.

1012
00:47:15,555 --> 00:47:16,154
I know, I know.

1013
00:47:16,154 --> 00:47:17,745
There's other things we wanna talk about.

1014
00:47:17,955 --> 00:47:18,615
Well, no, I don't.

1015
00:47:18,795 --> 00:47:19,665
World War ii, well, I shouldn't call

1016
00:47:19,665 --> 00:47:21,555
Jacob Shapiro: you, I shouldn't call
you Norman Eng. I should call you.

1017
00:47:21,555 --> 00:47:22,995
Uh, you're a kinder now.

1018
00:47:22,995 --> 00:47:27,075
The the heartland is, is being torn
asunder by, by all these different forces.

1019
00:47:27,315 --> 00:47:30,404
By the way, while we were talking,
uh, the, the person who I'm meeting

1020
00:47:30,404 --> 00:47:33,525
tomorrow for my av check, for my event,
he texted me and said, Hey, by the way,

1021
00:47:33,825 --> 00:47:36,464
uh, Dodge, I'm in Milwaukee, Dodgers
and brewers are playing tonight, and

1022
00:47:36,464 --> 00:47:37,815
the Dodgers are staying at the hotel.

1023
00:47:37,815 --> 00:47:39,765
So if you see any Dodgers,
that's what's going on.

1024
00:47:39,795 --> 00:47:40,640
So I might, oh wow.

1025
00:47:40,640 --> 00:47:43,935
I might see some Dodgers in the hotel
and if I see Freddy Freeman or if I find

1026
00:47:43,935 --> 00:47:46,875
out what room he is gonna be in, I'm
gonna prank his room because he should

1027
00:47:46,875 --> 00:47:48,315
have never left the Atlanta Braves.

1028
00:47:48,345 --> 00:47:50,475
And I'm really, really butt
hurt that he decided to go to

1029
00:47:50,475 --> 00:47:52,154
Los Angeles for the dollars.

1030
00:47:52,154 --> 00:47:53,025
That was not very nice.

1031
00:47:53,025 --> 00:47:56,055
Freddy, I had literally just bought your
jersey after you won us the World Series.

1032
00:47:56,055 --> 00:47:56,714
I'm really Freddy, dude.

1033
00:47:56,714 --> 00:47:58,634
Marko Papic: Everybody goes to
Los Angeles for the dollars.

1034
00:47:58,634 --> 00:47:59,325
I did too.

1035
00:47:59,384 --> 00:47:59,924
Like, come on.

1036
00:48:00,005 --> 00:48:01,655
Yeah, give him a break.

1037
00:48:01,865 --> 00:48:02,555
That's what you do.

1038
00:48:02,795 --> 00:48:03,905
Jacob Shapiro: And I went to New Orleans.

1039
00:48:03,935 --> 00:48:04,325
Okay.

1040
00:48:04,325 --> 00:48:10,385
So, uh, let's talk about Gen Z. I'm not
gonna be able to set you up quite as well

1041
00:48:10,385 --> 00:48:13,565
as I, I could set you up, um, for China.

1042
00:48:13,565 --> 00:48:17,675
But, um, you know, we talked, I think
in our last episode or episode before

1043
00:48:17,855 --> 00:48:19,445
you, we've had protests in Morocco.

1044
00:48:19,445 --> 00:48:20,915
We've had protests in Indonesia.

1045
00:48:20,915 --> 00:48:22,745
We've had a government change in Nepal.

1046
00:48:23,015 --> 00:48:26,105
Um, in the last two weeks, add two
more, basically coups to the list.

1047
00:48:26,105 --> 00:48:28,505
So last week we add Peru to the list.

1048
00:48:28,565 --> 00:48:32,345
Uh, president Dina Boar, uh,
was taken out by Congress.

1049
00:48:32,345 --> 00:48:35,645
Peru is, no, I don't know if
you can exactly call it a coup.

1050
00:48:35,885 --> 00:48:39,275
There were some Gen Z protests
two to three weeks ago, uh, which

1051
00:48:39,275 --> 00:48:42,185
was, do you know what, what drove
the protests in Peru, Marco?

1052
00:48:42,185 --> 00:48:44,585
I did not until I, until I
started researching this.

1053
00:48:44,585 --> 00:48:48,395
But do you know why the, the
youth were so upset, um, in Peru

1054
00:48:48,395 --> 00:48:49,415
and why they hit the streets?

1055
00:48:50,145 --> 00:48:50,775
I don't think so.

1056
00:48:50,775 --> 00:48:51,075
No.

1057
00:48:51,555 --> 00:48:54,944
There, there was a reform being proposed
that would've forced self-employed workers

1058
00:48:54,944 --> 00:48:59,535
to contribute to pension funds, um, and
Peru, at least according to the OECD,

1059
00:48:59,775 --> 00:49:02,745
aside from the fact that like the young
kids don't want to be contributing to

1060
00:49:02,745 --> 00:49:06,105
pension funds, um, they have the fifth
highest proportion of young people in

1061
00:49:06,105 --> 00:49:08,085
the world who neither study nor work.

1062
00:49:08,115 --> 00:49:09,615
And there's even an acronym for this.

1063
00:49:09,615 --> 00:49:13,365
They're called neats, not in
education, employment, or training.

1064
00:49:13,485 --> 00:49:13,575
Yep.

1065
00:49:13,845 --> 00:49:14,295
I know that.

1066
00:49:14,295 --> 00:49:14,860
I guess they're just not, yes.

1067
00:49:15,315 --> 00:49:16,095
I didn't know that.

1068
00:49:16,095 --> 00:49:17,865
There's 1.5 million of them in Peru.

1069
00:49:17,865 --> 00:49:20,085
So you had all these protests
a couple of weeks ago.

1070
00:49:20,415 --> 00:49:24,944
Um, and Congress basically removed
the Peruvian president, um, Peru,

1071
00:49:25,095 --> 00:49:26,355
not a stranger to these things.

1072
00:49:26,355 --> 00:49:28,365
There was, was it 22 or 23?

1073
00:49:28,365 --> 00:49:29,384
I forget, a couple years ago.

1074
00:49:29,384 --> 00:49:31,335
Like Peru literally went
through three presidents.

1075
00:49:31,335 --> 00:49:31,424
Yep.

1076
00:49:31,424 --> 00:49:32,325
In the span of a month.

1077
00:49:32,325 --> 00:49:33,134
It was incredible.

1078
00:49:33,465 --> 00:49:37,455
Uh, Peru also like lots of different
rare Earths and copper and all sorts

1079
00:49:37,455 --> 00:49:40,035
of other things that Chinese are
building up port infrastructure there.

1080
00:49:40,035 --> 00:49:41,475
Like it's a, it's an important one.

1081
00:49:41,775 --> 00:49:44,415
And then this week, I mean, nobody
really cares about this, but.

1082
00:49:45,020 --> 00:49:47,120
Uh, Madagascar had a proper military coup.

1083
00:49:47,510 --> 00:49:50,990
Uh, they had weeks of Gen Z
protests around the country.

1084
00:49:51,320 --> 00:49:54,680
Um, and then, um, you know,
the president was basically

1085
00:49:54,680 --> 00:49:55,970
toppled, I guess earlier today.

1086
00:49:55,970 --> 00:49:57,080
I mean, he's fled the country.

1087
00:49:57,080 --> 00:49:58,160
The military has taken over.

1088
00:49:58,160 --> 00:50:00,680
There's a special committee,
everything else that goes

1089
00:50:00,680 --> 00:50:02,390
along, um, with a military coup.

1090
00:50:02,750 --> 00:50:06,620
Um, so that's at least, uh, you know,
the, the two things that have happened

1091
00:50:06,620 --> 00:50:09,710
in the last two weeks, but you said you
wanted to cook on, on Gen Z. So I'll

1092
00:50:09,710 --> 00:50:11,300
step aside and let you cook for a second.

1093
00:50:11,840 --> 00:50:12,050
Marko Papic: No.

1094
00:50:12,050 --> 00:50:15,200
Well, I think you, you also
wanted to last, last podcast,

1095
00:50:15,200 --> 00:50:16,850
and actually it was prescient.

1096
00:50:17,300 --> 00:50:21,745
Your, your spidey sense is sense this,
and then we got another country where,

1097
00:50:21,750 --> 00:50:23,690
where you pro protests did this.

1098
00:50:23,960 --> 00:50:26,900
So, first, first thing I wanna say
is that this all really started in

1099
00:50:26,900 --> 00:50:32,570
2019, and me and my, uh, good, uh,
Colombian friend Santiago, who I,

1100
00:50:32,900 --> 00:50:35,150
who I often cook and, and talk about.

1101
00:50:35,150 --> 00:50:39,410
I remember we were looking at what
was happening in 20 19, 20 18, 20 19.

1102
00:50:39,410 --> 00:50:41,900
You had Hong Kong protests,
which were deeply violent.

1103
00:50:41,900 --> 00:50:41,990
Mm-hmm.

1104
00:50:42,500 --> 00:50:42,650
Jacob Shapiro: Yeah.

1105
00:50:43,310 --> 00:50:44,360
Marko Papic: And then we had Chile.

1106
00:50:45,135 --> 00:50:49,575
Remember Chile, where the protests were
actually launched because the, uh, transit

1107
00:50:49,575 --> 00:50:51,495
fees went up by like quarter of a cent.

1108
00:50:51,500 --> 00:50:51,945
Yeah, yeah, yeah.

1109
00:50:51,945 --> 00:50:52,395
Bus fees,

1110
00:50:52,500 --> 00:50:52,660
Jacob Shapiro: yeah,

1111
00:50:53,115 --> 00:50:53,625
Marko Papic: yeah, bus fee.

1112
00:50:53,655 --> 00:50:57,645
Uh, so, and um, and what was
interesting to me about those protests

1113
00:50:57,645 --> 00:50:59,505
is that they were quite expansive.

1114
00:50:59,505 --> 00:51:02,055
2018 was, I think Hong
Kong 2019 was Chile.

1115
00:51:02,625 --> 00:51:06,165
Hong Kong protests were some of the most
violent student protests I've ever seen.

1116
00:51:06,165 --> 00:51:09,195
Like the kids were attacking
police with hammers.

1117
00:51:09,585 --> 00:51:16,065
And I think that one of the reasons that
we in the West have not really realized

1118
00:51:16,065 --> 00:51:20,295
how violent the Hong Kong protests were
is because we had a very deep, that was

1119
00:51:20,295 --> 00:51:22,185
the turn, that was the anti-China turn.

1120
00:51:23,415 --> 00:51:28,215
The narrative about what was going on in
Hong Kong was deeply, deeply anti-Chinese.

1121
00:51:28,305 --> 00:51:31,995
And there was this view that the Hong
Kong police was cracking down a protests

1122
00:51:31,995 --> 00:51:34,785
like first and foremost, foremost,
you can go back and look at this.

1123
00:51:34,785 --> 00:51:36,345
Two people died in those protests.

1124
00:51:36,975 --> 00:51:38,295
One fell off a parking garage.

1125
00:51:38,295 --> 00:51:39,855
I think the other one
died of a heart attack.

1126
00:51:40,245 --> 00:51:41,535
Please fact, check me on that.

1127
00:51:41,924 --> 00:51:42,225
Okay.

1128
00:51:42,765 --> 00:51:46,005
And the Hong Kong police was being
assaulted by students who were

1129
00:51:46,005 --> 00:51:50,505
wearing body armor and wielding
like, you know, machine tools.

1130
00:51:51,525 --> 00:51:56,835
If you attack a bunch of ice officers
in like Chicago wearing body armor and

1131
00:51:56,835 --> 00:51:59,295
a hammer, you're getting shot to death.

1132
00:52:00,165 --> 00:52:02,835
And so it was very funny to me as
somebody who lived in countries where

1133
00:52:02,835 --> 00:52:06,495
there's actual protests, all these
western commentators talking about

1134
00:52:06,495 --> 00:52:10,245
how, you know, Chinese Allied Hong Kong
police was cracking down on students.

1135
00:52:10,245 --> 00:52:13,365
I was like, guys, if you had the
same protest in the US, there'll

1136
00:52:13,365 --> 00:52:14,745
be like a thousand students dead.

1137
00:52:15,615 --> 00:52:16,485
You're gonna be kidding me.

1138
00:52:16,755 --> 00:52:18,585
So why do I bring this up?

1139
00:52:18,795 --> 00:52:24,825
I bring this up because the Chile
example of launching countrywide protests

1140
00:52:24,825 --> 00:52:30,225
because of a small increase, shows
you that Gen Z has a very short fuse.

1141
00:52:32,025 --> 00:52:34,665
Remember when like Spanish millennials.

1142
00:52:35,430 --> 00:52:40,230
Camped in Madrid because youth
unemployment was like 80%.

1143
00:52:41,940 --> 00:52:46,380
So millennials, we clearly
don't have a short fuse.

1144
00:52:46,410 --> 00:52:47,730
We put up with a lot.

1145
00:52:48,510 --> 00:52:52,950
Gen Z has a short fuse, number
one and two is much more violent.

1146
00:52:53,610 --> 00:52:56,670
And that I don't need Madagascar
in Nepal to teach me that.

1147
00:52:56,700 --> 00:53:00,180
Hong Kong taught me that,
like kids in Hong Kong.

1148
00:53:01,650 --> 00:53:03,150
And so why do I mention this?

1149
00:53:03,150 --> 00:53:06,300
I mentioned this because I think the two
generations are just much more different.

1150
00:53:06,870 --> 00:53:12,600
You know, I think that, uh, millennials
kind of came of age, entered the

1151
00:53:12,600 --> 00:53:15,360
labor force in a lot of the world
after the great financial crisis.

1152
00:53:15,360 --> 00:53:16,650
There was a lot of insecurity.

1153
00:53:16,650 --> 00:53:17,460
There was a lot of sense.

1154
00:53:17,460 --> 00:53:20,910
So like, oh, you better shut
up and enjoy that internship.

1155
00:53:20,910 --> 00:53:21,810
That doesn't pay you anything.

1156
00:53:21,810 --> 00:53:26,070
You're lucky, you know, like,
and, and most of us did that.

1157
00:53:26,910 --> 00:53:31,230
And part of the reason also is that
most millennials also grew up in the

1158
00:53:31,230 --> 00:53:36,210
middle of this globalized American
hegemony world where like, you know, if

1159
00:53:36,210 --> 00:53:39,210
you just worked hard enough, you were
going to do better than your parents.

1160
00:53:39,210 --> 00:53:40,830
I mean, that was the
narrative that still worked.

1161
00:53:42,000 --> 00:53:45,450
We were the generation that realized
that that's not necessarily true.

1162
00:53:46,650 --> 00:53:53,220
Gen Z is coming behind us and saying like,
you guys are suckers and you are weak.

1163
00:53:54,210 --> 00:53:57,840
And we played a whole
lot of Fortnite, buddy.

1164
00:53:58,290 --> 00:53:58,590
You know?

1165
00:53:58,590 --> 00:53:58,650
Yeah.

1166
00:53:59,010 --> 00:53:59,610
Jacob Shapiro: So we're gonna

1167
00:53:59,610 --> 00:54:00,540
Marko Papic: put on, and we

1168
00:54:00,540 --> 00:54:03,060
Jacob Shapiro: haven't read books, so we
don't know what happens when we protest.

1169
00:54:03,090 --> 00:54:06,270
Uh, is this your way to get it back at me
for calling you Norman Eng? You're gonna

1170
00:54:06,270 --> 00:54:08,100
make me try and stick up for Gen Z here.

1171
00:54:08,100 --> 00:54:10,530
I think you're being a
little bit, uh, no, I be pro

1172
00:54:10,530 --> 00:54:11,190
Marko Papic: Gen Z. No, no.

1173
00:54:11,190 --> 00:54:11,640
Wait a minute.

1174
00:54:11,760 --> 00:54:14,670
I'm not being anti Gen Z. I'm just
saying like, look, they have a

1175
00:54:15,870 --> 00:54:17,910
Jacob Shapiro: ways, you said they had,
you said they had a very short fuse.

1176
00:54:18,030 --> 00:54:18,750
And I might already, which

1177
00:54:18,755 --> 00:54:19,740
Marko Papic: for for good reason.

1178
00:54:19,740 --> 00:54:22,350
For good reason though,
I would say, I would say.

1179
00:54:22,905 --> 00:54:25,305
That a lot of us have been
waiting for generational war.

1180
00:54:25,515 --> 00:54:29,625
The reason it didn't happen is because
millennials are basically suckers.

1181
00:54:30,105 --> 00:54:30,885
That's what I'm saying.

1182
00:54:30,945 --> 00:54:35,925
As a generation, they are suck and Gen
Z is not, you know, also when I say

1183
00:54:35,925 --> 00:54:38,865
the short fuse, like yeah, I mean they
have a short fuse because they're gonna

1184
00:54:38,865 --> 00:54:40,275
stand up and fight for their stuff.

1185
00:54:40,275 --> 00:54:43,545
And now a lot of critics are gonna
say, and I, I, I actually, it's funny

1186
00:54:43,545 --> 00:54:46,905
Jacob, it's amazing that you wanted
to talk about this topic last week.

1187
00:54:46,905 --> 00:54:48,795
'cause I've been talking
about it to clients all week.

1188
00:54:49,395 --> 00:54:50,385
You totally nailed it.

1189
00:54:50,625 --> 00:54:55,335
And I just finished a great conversation
with a client just before this call

1190
00:54:55,935 --> 00:54:59,625
and they said to me, but aren't you
afraid that Gen Z's anti-democratic?

1191
00:55:00,705 --> 00:55:02,805
You know, because there's all
these surveys that say that they're

1192
00:55:02,805 --> 00:55:06,315
anti-democratic and like, look, I'm
actually not that concerned about that.

1193
00:55:07,875 --> 00:55:11,475
They see that democracy doesn't
really work in many, many ways,

1194
00:55:11,745 --> 00:55:14,535
and they see that it's, it can
be corrupted, it can be paid for.

1195
00:55:14,535 --> 00:55:17,565
I mean, look, I mean, Donald Trump
won on this platform as well.

1196
00:55:17,565 --> 00:55:19,185
Like democracy is not working for you.

1197
00:55:19,485 --> 00:55:21,825
Like you need to vote for
someone who's anti-establishment.

1198
00:55:22,605 --> 00:55:25,695
It doesn't mean that Gen Z
is going to replace democracy

1199
00:55:25,695 --> 00:55:27,585
with fascism or communism.

1200
00:55:27,675 --> 00:55:28,845
It doesn't mean that at all.

1201
00:55:29,175 --> 00:55:32,625
It just means that there are certain
things in our democracy and democracy

1202
00:55:32,625 --> 00:55:36,375
in Madagascar, certainly in democracy
in Hong Kong or Chile, and certainly

1203
00:55:36,375 --> 00:55:39,105
in my home country where I was born in
Serbia, where its students have been

1204
00:55:39,105 --> 00:55:43,125
protesting for like 18 months as well,
even before all these other protests.

1205
00:55:44,235 --> 00:55:46,185
I think Gen Z is connected.

1206
00:55:46,785 --> 00:55:48,855
They see what the rest
of the world looks like.

1207
00:55:49,155 --> 00:55:54,465
They see what countries without corruption
look like, and they, they just, you

1208
00:55:54,465 --> 00:55:58,665
know, they're kind of, A lot of these
regimes are victims of their own success.

1209
00:55:58,665 --> 00:56:00,675
They haven't delivered aside from.

1210
00:56:01,379 --> 00:56:02,819
Maybe economic growth.

1211
00:56:02,819 --> 00:56:05,819
They haven't delivered on
governance of quality of life.

1212
00:56:05,819 --> 00:56:09,540
And that, and Gen Z, just unlike
millennials, unlike millennials,

1213
00:56:09,870 --> 00:56:13,350
gen Z, are not gonna put up
tents and occupy anything.

1214
00:56:14,459 --> 00:56:15,240
They're gonna burn it.

1215
00:56:16,109 --> 00:56:17,160
And I respect them for that.

1216
00:56:18,750 --> 00:56:20,279
Jacob Shapiro: Man, there is
so much to break apart there.

1217
00:56:20,310 --> 00:56:22,560
Um, I, I, okay.

1218
00:56:22,799 --> 00:56:24,569
I don't think millennials are suckers.

1219
00:56:25,049 --> 00:56:29,459
I think millennials came of age in
an era, to your point of optimism and

1220
00:56:29,459 --> 00:56:32,879
believed that if they did the work,
they would be rewarded for the work.

1221
00:56:33,209 --> 00:56:38,100
And some of us woke up in 2001 on
September 11th, and some of us woke

1222
00:56:38,100 --> 00:56:40,230
up in 2008 with the financial crisis.

1223
00:56:40,680 --> 00:56:43,200
And then COVID really like drove it home.

1224
00:56:43,950 --> 00:56:47,160
Uh, that this was like, not, like you were
not gonna be guaranteed something that

1225
00:56:47,160 --> 00:56:49,380
was better than your parents' generations.

1226
00:56:49,560 --> 00:56:51,960
And I think, I think millennials
have had to cope with that because

1227
00:56:51,960 --> 00:56:54,570
they grew up with this idea about
the world and the world that they're

1228
00:56:54,570 --> 00:56:55,860
inheriting is actually very different.

1229
00:56:55,860 --> 00:56:59,460
And the people that taught them that
world are these boomers who won't step

1230
00:56:59,460 --> 00:57:01,320
aside and keep on doing all these things.

1231
00:57:01,320 --> 00:57:03,900
The world that, you know, we talked
about this last time, I think you're

1232
00:57:03,900 --> 00:57:07,230
right, that like Gen Z grew up in
a world that was fundamentally not

1233
00:57:07,230 --> 00:57:11,010
optimistic, um, in a world where
all of this was native to them.

1234
00:57:11,400 --> 00:57:14,970
Um, and, and where like this is
all just sort of, I, I don't know,

1235
00:57:15,000 --> 00:57:17,280
like maybe in the same way that
millennials are better with technology

1236
00:57:17,280 --> 00:57:20,220
because we grow up with computers,
even if they were shitty computers

1237
00:57:20,220 --> 00:57:21,570
with Ms Dos and things like that.

1238
00:57:21,570 --> 00:57:23,100
Like we at least know how computers work.

1239
00:57:23,100 --> 00:57:24,270
Like we understand the basics.

1240
00:57:24,270 --> 00:57:26,700
So if you give us a new cell phone,
like, okay, like it'll take us a

1241
00:57:26,700 --> 00:57:27,960
couple hours, but we'll figure it out.

1242
00:57:27,960 --> 00:57:30,780
Whereas a Boomer, like once you take
away a Boomer's phone, like it's

1243
00:57:30,780 --> 00:57:33,330
gonna take them months if they're
ever gonna actually learn like

1244
00:57:33,330 --> 00:57:34,590
the new phone architecture again.

1245
00:57:34,590 --> 00:57:37,950
Maybe Multipolarity is
something that the Gen Zs learn.

1246
00:57:37,980 --> 00:57:38,820
I, I don't know.

1247
00:57:38,820 --> 00:57:39,130
But um.

1248
00:57:39,875 --> 00:57:45,275
I think one thing, I, I had a, I had a,
um, a loss or a, a graduate student from

1249
00:57:45,275 --> 00:57:47,194
Nepal on my podcast a couple weeks ago.

1250
00:57:47,194 --> 00:57:50,285
And I was asking her, and she, she
participated in the Gen Z protest

1251
00:57:50,285 --> 00:57:53,045
in Nepal, and I was asking her
perspective and why she participated.

1252
00:57:53,045 --> 00:57:56,705
And one of the things that she
alluded to was, look, because we're

1253
00:57:56,705 --> 00:58:00,515
also interconnected, we see what's
going on in other countries, we

1254
00:58:00,515 --> 00:58:05,015
see that in other countries, things
work and people have nice things.

1255
00:58:05,194 --> 00:58:08,375
So like, you know, we already know
like that we're not gonna have

1256
00:58:08,375 --> 00:58:09,785
better than our parents' generations.

1257
00:58:09,785 --> 00:58:12,634
We saw what happened to the millennials,
them believing that nonsense.

1258
00:58:12,725 --> 00:58:16,205
And we also see that people in at least
other countries, like things are better

1259
00:58:16,205 --> 00:58:19,145
over there, so why can't we have those
things and we're gonna go out and protest.

1260
00:58:19,145 --> 00:58:21,875
And there is a part of this also where,
I dunno if you've seen those stats

1261
00:58:21,875 --> 00:58:26,585
about, um, you know, gen Z and reading
and like their knowledge of like history

1262
00:58:26,585 --> 00:58:27,785
or anything that came before them.

1263
00:58:27,815 --> 00:58:30,065
It's, it's just they're reading
at shockingly low rates.

1264
00:58:30,065 --> 00:58:34,625
So maybe they, maybe they lack a requisite
level of fear about what it means to go

1265
00:58:34,654 --> 00:58:36,319
and burn something in the streets, but.

1266
00:58:36,715 --> 00:58:37,225
I don't know.

1267
00:58:37,225 --> 00:58:39,415
I'm, let's, let's, I'm
grasping at straws there.

1268
00:58:39,715 --> 00:58:39,925
Marko Papic: No, no.

1269
00:58:39,925 --> 00:58:42,445
Let's pause on those two
because, um, you know, that was

1270
00:58:42,445 --> 00:58:43,855
one of the things I also said.

1271
00:58:43,855 --> 00:58:46,945
It was this knowledge of the rest of the
world that I think is very important.

1272
00:58:47,905 --> 00:58:53,155
I think social media brings the rest
of the world to you, and I think that

1273
00:58:53,155 --> 00:58:57,265
that's very, very important because
then you ask exactly those questions

1274
00:58:57,265 --> 00:58:58,675
like, well, why isn't this better?

1275
00:58:59,035 --> 00:58:59,185
Yeah.

1276
00:58:59,305 --> 00:59:05,155
And I also think that, um, you know,
it just, it's travel has become cheap

1277
00:59:05,155 --> 00:59:09,025
as well, and I think a lot of younger
people have also managed to travel.

1278
00:59:09,025 --> 00:59:12,055
And, and I know for a fact,
like if you are from Serbia and

1279
00:59:12,055 --> 00:59:14,965
you're in your twenties, you've
probably traveled to Europe.

1280
00:59:15,565 --> 00:59:16,945
It's not that expensive to do that.

1281
00:59:16,945 --> 00:59:19,825
You have a phone and you can go
to Croatia, which is next door.

1282
00:59:19,855 --> 00:59:20,875
You can like drive to it.

1283
00:59:21,355 --> 00:59:24,565
They basically speak the same
language and you're like, well, this

1284
00:59:24,565 --> 00:59:26,155
place is better run than this place.

1285
00:59:26,155 --> 00:59:26,635
Like, why?

1286
00:59:26,665 --> 00:59:27,565
What's the difference?

1287
00:59:27,835 --> 00:59:28,525
Oh, okay.

1288
00:59:28,525 --> 00:59:28,765
Yeah.

1289
00:59:28,765 --> 00:59:33,085
They, they, they at least made an
effort to clean up their governance

1290
00:59:33,085 --> 00:59:34,795
to get into the EU as an example.

1291
00:59:35,549 --> 00:59:38,220
You know, and I think that,
um, a lot of these regimes are

1292
00:59:38,220 --> 00:59:39,660
also victims of their success.

1293
00:59:39,660 --> 00:59:42,839
I mean, in Serbia's case, I made
this point before, I think in many

1294
00:59:42,839 --> 00:59:47,580
ways, um, you know, IC and the
people in power have managed to

1295
00:59:47,580 --> 00:59:49,319
stabilize geopolitics of Serbia.

1296
00:59:49,319 --> 00:59:51,690
It's actually one of the best
performing economies in Europe.

1297
00:59:52,379 --> 00:59:56,100
Um, but the problem with that is
that you've got, you've delivered

1298
00:59:56,100 --> 00:59:57,540
jobs to the young people.

1299
00:59:57,540 --> 00:59:58,650
You've let them travel.

1300
00:59:58,650 --> 01:00:00,145
They all got enough money for an iPhone.

1301
01:00:01,965 --> 01:00:04,785
But you can't then have governance
of the 1980s or seventies.

1302
01:00:04,815 --> 01:00:07,515
You know, you can't just have these
patron, you just gotta clean that up.

1303
01:00:07,515 --> 01:00:10,725
I mean, that's just like, you've created
a problem for yourself, but actually

1304
01:00:10,725 --> 01:00:15,435
delivering stability, um, and also
by delivering, um, economic growth.

1305
01:00:15,855 --> 01:00:18,105
So I do think that that
interconnectedness, I think

1306
01:00:18,105 --> 01:00:19,905
is an, is an important issue.

1307
01:00:19,905 --> 01:00:22,965
Although I would say that millennials
were also similarly interconnected.

1308
01:00:22,965 --> 01:00:26,145
I mean, we were, even in our
youth, we were able to see what's

1309
01:00:26,145 --> 01:00:27,255
going on in the rest of the world.

1310
01:00:27,255 --> 01:00:30,435
And again, that goes and speaks
to the Occupy Wall Street

1311
01:00:30,435 --> 01:00:31,905
movement, which started in Spain.

1312
01:00:32,295 --> 01:00:36,435
Like that whole Occupy movement
began in southern Europe.

1313
01:00:36,525 --> 01:00:40,365
Spain spread to other
countries, ended up in us.

1314
01:00:40,425 --> 01:00:44,385
And again, just to clarify, the
difference between millennials and

1315
01:00:44,385 --> 01:00:47,355
Gen Z. Gen Z are willing to take
it to the streets in a much more

1316
01:00:47,355 --> 01:00:49,275
aggressive way than millennials were.

1317
01:00:49,275 --> 01:00:52,965
And I think partly the reason is that
if you are in your early twenties

1318
01:00:53,805 --> 01:00:57,285
and you talk to someone in their
early forties, you would say, what

1319
01:00:57,285 --> 01:00:58,995
did your peaceful protest get you?

1320
01:01:00,524 --> 01:01:02,295
What did Occupy Wall Street actually do?

1321
01:01:03,765 --> 01:01:04,125
You know?

1322
01:01:04,125 --> 01:01:07,125
And um, and, and then the final
thing I would just say is like,

1323
01:01:08,714 --> 01:01:10,305
are they really ahistorical?

1324
01:01:10,305 --> 01:01:14,115
Do they not know the danger of
this, or are they just young people?

1325
01:01:14,670 --> 01:01:15,629
Jacob Shapiro: Yeah, that's fair.

1326
01:01:16,379 --> 01:01:18,000
You know, because it's fair.

1327
01:01:18,000 --> 01:01:20,279
I, I always actually shy away
from generational arguments

1328
01:01:20,310 --> 01:01:22,920
'cause I fundamentally think
everybody's actually just the same.

1329
01:01:22,950 --> 01:01:25,319
And all of these different tribes that
we're putting ourselves into Yeah.

1330
01:01:25,319 --> 01:01:26,730
Are just like, it's false.

1331
01:01:26,730 --> 01:01:31,799
Marko Papic: 1968, listen, 1968 was an
explosion of social movement in the world.

1332
01:01:31,799 --> 01:01:36,690
Read it up, you know, folks out there,
it was global with like, it was in

1333
01:01:36,690 --> 01:01:40,290
America, it was about anti-Vietnam
in France, it was about the state

1334
01:01:40,290 --> 01:01:45,330
of education system, system and,
uh, the rigidity of social norms.

1335
01:01:45,390 --> 01:01:47,160
There was a sexual revolution going on.

1336
01:01:47,490 --> 01:01:49,379
There was an anti-war revolution going on.

1337
01:01:49,379 --> 01:01:51,060
There was an economic revolution going on.

1338
01:01:51,390 --> 01:01:54,720
And the baby boomers had their moment
in 18 where they blew up the world.

1339
01:01:54,720 --> 01:01:55,049
Right.

1340
01:01:55,140 --> 01:01:58,290
And they were, in many ways,
these were quite violent protests.

1341
01:01:58,290 --> 01:02:03,569
I mean, Charlotte de Gold like fled
France to an army base in Germany where

1342
01:02:03,569 --> 01:02:05,730
he was just hiding for like two days.

1343
01:02:06,345 --> 01:02:08,265
The Prime Minister of France
didn't know where he was.

1344
01:02:08,265 --> 01:02:08,625
Jacob Shapiro: Yeah.

1345
01:02:08,745 --> 01:02:10,725
Marko Papic: So this is
what happened in 1968.

1346
01:02:10,725 --> 01:02:14,565
This was, this was the height
of this baby boomer protest too.

1347
01:02:14,565 --> 01:02:18,375
And I think it's unfair for a bunch of
baby boomers now to say that Gen Z is

1348
01:02:18,375 --> 01:02:20,205
undemocratic and they haven't read a book.

1349
01:02:20,445 --> 01:02:25,155
It's like, bro, you were having sex
and doing drugs at 18 and then try to

1350
01:02:25,185 --> 01:02:30,615
burn down the world and then sold out
and you know, you know, like reverse.

1351
01:02:30,615 --> 01:02:30,915
Well no, that,

1352
01:02:31,245 --> 01:02:32,205
Jacob Shapiro: and that's a good point.

1353
01:02:32,205 --> 01:02:36,795
So what was the geopolitical
impact of 1968 and what do

1354
01:02:36,795 --> 01:02:39,315
you think the geopolitical
impact of this in 2025 will be?

1355
01:02:39,315 --> 01:02:42,435
Or will this just be like a paragraph
in, in history books such as they

1356
01:02:42,435 --> 01:02:45,675
are 20 years from now and you know,
amidst all of the different us,

1357
01:02:45,675 --> 01:02:46,905
China, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah.

1358
01:02:46,905 --> 01:02:49,035
There were these protests in these
different countries all around

1359
01:02:49,035 --> 01:02:52,365
the world demanding like lower
bus fairs or whatever, demanding.

1360
01:02:53,205 --> 01:02:55,935
Marko Papic: So, you know what I
think, I think I'm going to make,

1361
01:02:56,805 --> 01:02:59,535
when you were asking that question, I
thought that was an unfair question.

1362
01:03:00,075 --> 01:03:00,525
You know?

1363
01:03:00,555 --> 01:03:01,125
Uh.

1364
01:03:01,860 --> 01:03:08,190
But I think there was, uh,
geopolitical relevance in particular.

1365
01:03:08,580 --> 01:03:17,190
If you think about the 1970s, there
was, um, there was like a Deante in

1366
01:03:17,190 --> 01:03:23,850
the 1970s, in part because all of
these protests and made these countries

1367
01:03:23,850 --> 01:03:25,440
and societies very inward looking.

1368
01:03:25,530 --> 01:03:25,620
Jacob Shapiro: Mm-hmm.

1369
01:03:26,730 --> 01:03:30,900
Marko Papic: You know, and you had to deal
with the unruly baby boomers effectively.

1370
01:03:31,620 --> 01:03:36,600
Uh, so I think that one of the things
that, you know, we're all fixated

1371
01:03:36,600 --> 01:03:39,870
on Russia versus West China versus
us, and we're, we're thinking that

1372
01:03:39,870 --> 01:03:41,370
this is gonna dominate next 10 years.

1373
01:03:41,970 --> 01:03:44,160
Domestic politics could
dominate the next 10 years.

1374
01:03:44,850 --> 01:03:47,280
On the other hand, what I
would also say about, uh.

1375
01:03:47,745 --> 01:03:52,035
1968, it did lead to the seventies,
which were yes, very domestically

1376
01:03:52,035 --> 01:03:55,995
oriented decade, but very suboptimal
from an economic perspective.

1377
01:03:55,995 --> 01:03:59,595
So one of the ways that you dealt with
those protests is that you just, uh,

1378
01:03:59,595 --> 01:04:02,625
use Ian policies to satiate the public.

1379
01:04:02,925 --> 01:04:03,195
Jacob Shapiro: Hmm.

1380
01:04:03,585 --> 01:04:06,195
Marko Papic: Uh, so that could be also
something that happens this time around.

1381
01:04:06,195 --> 01:04:10,305
Although I think in a weird
way, I, I don't think Gen Z is

1382
01:04:10,305 --> 01:04:13,245
necessarily asking for that.

1383
01:04:14,235 --> 01:04:15,480
You know, think in some cases no, because

1384
01:04:15,480 --> 01:04:18,255
Jacob Shapiro: they're all buying
Bitcoin as, as I'm starting to join them.

1385
01:04:19,995 --> 01:04:20,895
Marko Papic: They're all buying Bitcoin.

1386
01:04:20,925 --> 01:04:24,225
But I also think that they, um,
understand that one of the reasons

1387
01:04:24,255 --> 01:04:27,855
they don't have access is because of
the patronage networks of the past.

1388
01:04:28,845 --> 01:04:29,175
You know?

1389
01:04:29,175 --> 01:04:32,235
And also we did just go
through a inflationary cycle

1390
01:04:32,235 --> 01:04:34,995
in the West in 2020, uh, two.

1391
01:04:35,385 --> 01:04:37,095
So I'm not sure we're gonna repeat that.

1392
01:04:37,095 --> 01:04:39,105
I, I'm not sure, but, but I'm open to it.

1393
01:04:39,285 --> 01:04:42,165
All I'm saying is that the 1968 protests.

1394
01:04:42,975 --> 01:04:45,944
Force the world to be a little
bit more inward looking for

1395
01:04:45,944 --> 01:04:47,025
the next decade at least.

1396
01:04:48,225 --> 01:04:50,805
Jacob Shapiro: Do you, are you willing
to, do you think that that'll be the case

1397
01:04:50,805 --> 01:04:53,174
as a result of the 2025 Gen Z protest?

1398
01:04:53,174 --> 01:04:55,275
Or have they, have they not
even congealed enough for you

1399
01:04:55,275 --> 01:04:57,285
to, to put your neck out on?

1400
01:04:57,480 --> 01:04:57,770
Look,

1401
01:04:58,815 --> 01:05:02,025
Marko Papic: look, Jacob, I mean,
right now our examples are Serbia,

1402
01:05:03,555 --> 01:05:07,154
Madagascar, Nepal, Indonesia, Peru.

1403
01:05:07,935 --> 01:05:08,325
Okay.

1404
01:05:08,535 --> 01:05:08,805
Okay.

1405
01:05:08,805 --> 01:05:09,194
Fair.

1406
01:05:09,495 --> 01:05:10,575
Uh, Hong Kong, Chile.

1407
01:05:10,605 --> 01:05:11,055
Okay.

1408
01:05:11,145 --> 01:05:12,315
In 20 18, 19

1409
01:05:14,535 --> 01:05:16,694
Jacob Shapiro: May, maybe some
Turkey, like Turkey has kind

1410
01:05:16,694 --> 01:05:19,035
of popped its head up and then
Erdogan's gotten it under control.

1411
01:05:19,845 --> 01:05:23,444
Marko Papic: I think we would
need to see it happen in, in,

1412
01:05:23,444 --> 01:05:26,265
you know, big developed markets.

1413
01:05:26,985 --> 01:05:29,325
Um, but, you know, one, one
thing that I would say is that

1414
01:05:30,015 --> 01:05:31,605
you don't need to use violence.

1415
01:05:31,725 --> 01:05:36,194
You know, sometimes what happens is just
political evolution and, and one of the

1416
01:05:36,194 --> 01:05:39,615
interesting conversations I just had
with a client, they were asking me about

1417
01:05:39,674 --> 01:05:41,085
what's going on in France and Japan.

1418
01:05:41,089 --> 01:05:41,339
Mm-hmm.

1419
01:05:42,810 --> 01:05:48,150
And I would say that partly millennials
and Gen Z, let's move away from protests.

1420
01:05:48,150 --> 01:05:52,470
But I think millennials and Gen Z, you
know, they're just incapable of really

1421
01:05:52,470 --> 01:05:55,650
connecting with some of these political
parties that have been left over.

1422
01:05:56,340 --> 01:06:04,350
Uh, you know, and, uh, there's this
idea, there's this idea that, um,

1423
01:06:05,820 --> 01:06:07,650
voters vote for their economic interest.

1424
01:06:07,650 --> 01:06:11,070
We know that's not the case, right?

1425
01:06:11,070 --> 01:06:12,750
So what's the matter with Kansas?

1426
01:06:12,960 --> 01:06:13,710
Great book.

1427
01:06:14,190 --> 01:06:18,090
Um, if you wanna, it's, it's
very liberal critique of

1428
01:06:18,090 --> 01:06:19,325
conservative politics of Kansas.

1429
01:06:19,425 --> 01:06:21,270
So if you're conservative,
you're not gonna like it.

1430
01:06:22,425 --> 01:06:28,875
Um, I think it's a well, uh, research book
by a journalist, uh, Thomas Frank, who

1431
01:06:28,875 --> 01:06:32,925
basically argues that people in Kansas
vote against their economic interests.

1432
01:06:32,925 --> 01:06:33,015
Mm-hmm.

1433
01:06:33,255 --> 01:06:38,295
And then, um, the book that kind
of answers what is why people do

1434
01:06:38,295 --> 01:06:43,755
that is Alexander Schussler, who's
a political scientist who wrote the

1435
01:06:43,755 --> 01:06:46,065
book, A Logic of Expressive Choice.

1436
01:06:46,515 --> 01:06:50,325
And that book is a far, far more
complicated book to go through,

1437
01:06:50,985 --> 01:06:52,185
but it's actually very good.

1438
01:06:52,185 --> 01:06:54,855
Anyone who wants to kind of think
about politics should read it.

1439
01:06:55,245 --> 01:06:59,415
In that book, Schuler makes a very
controversial argument that goes against

1440
01:06:59,685 --> 01:07:03,795
decades of rational choice theory
and says that nobody votes because

1441
01:07:03,795 --> 01:07:06,045
of some sort of a rational reason.

1442
01:07:06,405 --> 01:07:06,495
Mm-hmm.

1443
01:07:06,795 --> 01:07:10,305
Mathematically, mathematically,
you have a higher probability of

1444
01:07:10,305 --> 01:07:14,115
being hit by a bus on your way to
the polls than impacting the vote.

1445
01:07:14,115 --> 01:07:15,015
So why do you vote?

1446
01:07:15,900 --> 01:07:16,950
That's the puzzle to him.

1447
01:07:16,950 --> 01:07:18,060
Why do we even do it?

1448
01:07:18,090 --> 01:07:20,310
Why do we even take the time
out of our day to go vote?

1449
01:07:20,730 --> 01:07:23,460
And his argument is that you vote
for the same reason you choose

1450
01:07:23,460 --> 01:07:26,430
Pepsi over Coke or Coke over Pepsi.

1451
01:07:26,430 --> 01:07:27,930
It's because it says something about you.

1452
01:07:28,799 --> 01:07:34,890
And he uses really interesting
data and, uh, you know, analogies

1453
01:07:34,965 --> 01:07:36,360
to the marketing industry.

1454
01:07:36,360 --> 01:07:40,650
For example, Pepsi tried for years,
for decades to use the taste test

1455
01:07:41,460 --> 01:07:45,960
as a reason to get people to, to,
to drink Pepsi over Coca-Cola.

1456
01:07:46,410 --> 01:07:49,049
They would do these commercials,
I think back in the seventies.

1457
01:07:49,049 --> 01:07:52,259
I'm not even sure when, but like long
time ago, they would say like, no, not

1458
01:07:52,259 --> 01:07:55,860
10 people agreed that Pepsi tastes better
than Coke, you know, in a blind test.

1459
01:07:55,920 --> 01:08:01,440
And then once they decided to just do
some silhouette of a person dancing to

1460
01:08:01,440 --> 01:08:06,060
hip hop and call it the Pepsi generation.

1461
01:08:07,005 --> 01:08:08,445
Dare Sales went up, well St

1462
01:08:08,445 --> 01:08:10,965
Jacob Shapiro: started, started with
the King of Pop, Michael Jackson.

1463
01:08:11,115 --> 01:08:12,945
Michael Jackson was the first
one that got doing that.

1464
01:08:12,945 --> 01:08:15,345
And that was also probably why
he needed his first nose job

1465
01:08:15,375 --> 01:08:16,425
'cause he broke his nose on set.

1466
01:08:16,425 --> 01:08:19,275
I fair listeners used to be a
Michael Jackson impersonator, so

1467
01:08:19,275 --> 01:08:20,535
I know this history very well.

1468
01:08:20,685 --> 01:08:22,545
I'm just, I mean, dude
dropping bombs there, you know,

1469
01:08:22,965 --> 01:08:23,715
Marko Papic: that's that.

1470
01:08:23,715 --> 01:08:24,795
We need to out unpack that.

1471
01:08:24,795 --> 01:08:26,625
We need a whole podcast for that.

1472
01:08:26,685 --> 01:08:28,125
And what was the other one was?

1473
01:08:28,125 --> 01:08:29,745
Uh, equestrian.

1474
01:08:30,135 --> 01:08:30,915
Jacob Shapiro: Oh, equestrian Vault.

1475
01:08:31,065 --> 01:08:31,365
Yes.

1476
01:08:31,365 --> 01:08:33,360
I was also an accomplished
equestrian vaulter.

1477
01:08:34,560 --> 01:08:38,100
I'm just, I you all need to watch
Marco's brain just literally

1478
01:08:38,279 --> 01:08:39,480
spontaneously combusted.

1479
01:08:39,540 --> 01:08:40,350
Well, it's not spontaneous.

1480
01:08:40,350 --> 01:08:41,520
I, it's 'cause I caused it, but

1481
01:08:42,180 --> 01:08:45,450
Marko Papic: No, it's, it is just why
you're in a Renaissance man and you

1482
01:08:45,450 --> 01:08:47,609
have effectively Joe Johnson's game.

1483
01:08:48,810 --> 01:08:49,740
Jacob Shapiro: Oh, that's very nice.

1484
01:08:49,770 --> 01:08:50,490
That's very nice.

1485
01:08:50,790 --> 01:08:54,720
Marko Papic: I mean, this is like, uh, so
look what I'm getting at is that, to go

1486
01:08:54,720 --> 01:08:56,190
back on track, but we will unpack this.

1487
01:08:56,220 --> 01:08:58,170
We, we will not let
you, we, this won't die.

1488
01:08:58,319 --> 01:08:59,550
We will pick this up.

1489
01:08:59,550 --> 01:09:00,510
Next podcast.

1490
01:09:00,840 --> 01:09:02,460
I just want to end land the plane on this.

1491
01:09:02,460 --> 01:09:06,810
The point is, once Pepsi started
saying that you do something when

1492
01:09:06,810 --> 01:09:11,220
you drink a Coke or you, you do,
you, you are saying to the world,

1493
01:09:11,250 --> 01:09:12,960
I'm member of this new generation.

1494
01:09:12,960 --> 01:09:15,900
When I drink a Pepsi, Coke
is for boomers or whatever.

1495
01:09:16,635 --> 01:09:18,255
That's when their sales went up.

1496
01:09:18,285 --> 01:09:22,275
Similarly, the reason that Donald
Trump does well is 'cause yes, he's

1497
01:09:22,275 --> 01:09:26,445
authentic, but he also understands
branding and he hits his own brand.

1498
01:09:27,135 --> 01:09:31,005
And I think one of the things that Gen Z
and millennials just don't understand is

1499
01:09:31,005 --> 01:09:37,245
the brand, like Christian Democratic Union
and a social Democratic party of Germany.

1500
01:09:37,245 --> 01:09:40,845
Holy crap, those are old ass brands.

1501
01:09:42,975 --> 01:09:44,925
The Democratic Party
and the Republican Party

1502
01:09:45,015 --> 01:09:45,565
Jacob Shapiro: are old ass brands.

1503
01:09:45,565 --> 01:09:46,095
Very old brands.

1504
01:09:46,095 --> 01:09:49,065
There's a reason Donald Trump was able
to co-opt the Republicans and turn it

1505
01:09:49,065 --> 01:09:52,185
into the Trump party and why a majority
of Americans identify as independents,

1506
01:09:52,185 --> 01:09:53,565
not as Republicans or Democrats,

1507
01:09:54,045 --> 01:09:55,755
Marko Papic: Japan, LDP.

1508
01:09:55,785 --> 01:09:55,875
Mm-hmm.

1509
01:09:56,115 --> 01:09:56,775
Oh my God.

1510
01:09:56,775 --> 01:09:59,535
It's one of the longest,
uh, running parties in Asia.

1511
01:09:59,535 --> 01:10:03,675
Like a lot of these are just
brands that you know, like

1512
01:10:03,675 --> 01:10:05,325
nobody gets enthusiastic about.

1513
01:10:05,325 --> 01:10:08,895
And so I would say that while we
have spent a lot of time today

1514
01:10:08,895 --> 01:10:10,515
talking about Gen Z protests.

1515
01:10:11,250 --> 01:10:14,580
I do think that we need to be on
the lookout for emergence of new

1516
01:10:14,580 --> 01:10:16,350
brands and we shouldn't fear them.

1517
01:10:16,350 --> 01:10:20,700
There is this really, really built into,
especially in finance, that's like,

1518
01:10:20,700 --> 01:10:22,740
oh, god forbid a new party takes over.

1519
01:10:23,010 --> 01:10:25,945
Listen guys, material constraints
will force them to do.

1520
01:10:27,000 --> 01:10:30,300
Probably what's the right
thing to do, but new brands are

1521
01:10:30,300 --> 01:10:31,920
not necessarily a bad thing.

1522
01:10:31,920 --> 01:10:36,660
Fort Seit is kind of an old brand that
was taken over by Georgia Maloney, and

1523
01:10:36,660 --> 01:10:38,670
by the way, the brand is kind of fascist.

1524
01:10:39,720 --> 01:10:40,590
Jacob Shapiro: Let's leave it aside.

1525
01:10:40,590 --> 01:10:41,965
That's not kind of like, it's the OG.

1526
01:10:42,655 --> 01:10:43,705
It's the original is that

1527
01:10:44,725 --> 01:10:45,115
Marko Papic: Yes.

1528
01:10:46,315 --> 01:10:49,345
But the thing is, it's like this
resurrection of old brands and

1529
01:10:49,345 --> 01:10:51,625
bringing them back up and, and
brushing them up for the new

1530
01:10:51,625 --> 01:10:53,155
generation, I think is gonna happen.

1531
01:10:53,215 --> 01:10:58,675
And we should not panic when the CNNs
of the world, the guardians of the

1532
01:10:58,675 --> 01:11:02,785
world, the Fox news of the world,
say anti-establishment party wins

1533
01:11:02,785 --> 01:11:05,515
election in insert major economy.

1534
01:11:05,515 --> 01:11:05,905
You know?

1535
01:11:06,085 --> 01:11:09,805
No, it is just that People got sick
of these old brands and somebody

1536
01:11:09,805 --> 01:11:13,525
else came in and Manu Macron
effectively did this in France, which

1537
01:11:13,525 --> 01:11:14,905
by the way was a two party state.

1538
01:11:14,935 --> 01:11:18,535
Whatever you wanna say, they have a
very sim, similar electoral system.

1539
01:11:18,535 --> 01:11:22,885
Anybody who thinks that first pass the
post in the United States of America will

1540
01:11:22,885 --> 01:11:26,245
prevent the emergence of a third party,
should look at what happened in the United

1541
01:11:26,245 --> 01:11:29,035
Kingdom with the Brexit party, what's
happening in the United Kingdom today

1542
01:11:29,155 --> 01:11:32,605
with a complete collapse of the Tories
and what happened in France with the

1543
01:11:32,605 --> 01:11:34,855
emergence of this third party in France.

1544
01:11:34,855 --> 01:11:35,575
The rebels.

1545
01:11:35,875 --> 01:11:38,035
The rebels were centrist.

1546
01:11:38,610 --> 01:11:41,280
Now he did appeal to a lot of older
people, which is kind of weird,

1547
01:11:41,280 --> 01:11:42,420
but let's leave that as a side.

1548
01:11:42,630 --> 01:11:44,430
Of course, he's the member
of the establishment.

1549
01:11:44,430 --> 01:11:46,320
He preserves their prerogatives.

1550
01:11:46,530 --> 01:11:47,310
That makes sense.

1551
01:11:47,580 --> 01:11:51,390
All I'm saying is that we
should not necessarily fear the

1552
01:11:51,390 --> 01:11:53,340
emergence of these new brands.

1553
01:11:53,340 --> 01:11:58,500
I think it's healthy and it's the
only way to ultimately get buy-in.

1554
01:11:58,500 --> 01:12:02,730
Democratically, at the end of the
day, who gives a fuck Pepsi or Coke?

1555
01:12:02,760 --> 01:12:04,620
It gives you caffeine in a sugar rush.

1556
01:12:04,950 --> 01:12:08,130
And don't be fooled by these new
anti-establishment politicians.

1557
01:12:08,130 --> 01:12:11,940
'cause in many ways they'll
just do the same things but

1558
01:12:11,940 --> 01:12:13,110
appeal to the younger people.

1559
01:12:13,140 --> 01:12:15,060
And that's how democracy kind of works.

1560
01:12:15,120 --> 01:12:19,740
It works in in those, you know, like
in a way in which new generations

1561
01:12:19,740 --> 01:12:24,930
get a voice and without changing
the place in a dramatic fashion,

1562
01:12:24,930 --> 01:12:28,050
that obviously would introduce
political volatility and violence.

1563
01:12:29,835 --> 01:12:31,725
Jacob Shapiro: I, I agree with most of
that and we'll, we'll close out 'cause

1564
01:12:31,725 --> 01:12:35,355
we're, we're running up on time, which is
that here's another theory, half half in

1565
01:12:35,355 --> 01:12:38,565
jest about why Gen Z is, is doing protests
and it connects with something else.

1566
01:12:38,565 --> 01:12:41,865
Earlier today, the United States
hit another, um, Venezuelan

1567
01:12:41,865 --> 01:12:45,225
ship, killed six Venezuelan drug
traffickers in the Caribbean.

1568
01:12:45,645 --> 01:12:49,845
Um, and Marco, maybe we should posit
that what's going on is that this is what

1569
01:12:49,845 --> 01:12:53,775
happens when you have an excess of cocaine
in the global international trade system.

1570
01:12:54,135 --> 01:13:01,785
Uh, cocaine production rose 53%, uh, from
22 to 23, 20 4% the year before that.

1571
01:13:02,115 --> 01:13:05,025
Um, I'm gonna quote here, a US official
who was anonymous, anonymously,

1572
01:13:05,025 --> 01:13:07,815
quote in New York Times, quote,
we're seeing production at levels

1573
01:13:07,815 --> 01:13:09,795
that Pablo Escobar dreamed about.

1574
01:13:10,055 --> 01:13:13,475
You go to Coca Field and it's
like standing in a cornfield

1575
01:13:13,475 --> 01:13:15,575
in Iowa, you can't see the end.

1576
01:13:15,575 --> 01:13:19,925
And there are tons of interest articles
here about Colombian towns and villages

1577
01:13:19,925 --> 01:13:24,665
that are literally dying, uh, because the,
the cartels are not showing up anymore

1578
01:13:24,665 --> 01:13:26,405
because they have too much cocaine.

1579
01:13:26,435 --> 01:13:29,885
They're literally just throwing cocaine
everywhere they possibly can because the

1580
01:13:29,885 --> 01:13:35,105
price has gone from something like $20 a
bushel to $7 a bushel, which maybe some

1581
01:13:35,105 --> 01:13:36,485
of our American farmers can believe it.

1582
01:13:36,485 --> 01:13:39,665
So maybe there's just too much cocaine
out there, Marco, I don't know.

1583
01:13:40,565 --> 01:13:43,715
So you're saying that the targeting
of these, uh, boats reflects

1584
01:13:43,715 --> 01:13:43,805
Marko Papic: that.

1585
01:13:44,955 --> 01:13:46,905
Jacob Shapiro: Well, the targeting of
the boats, I think reflects the fact

1586
01:13:46,905 --> 01:13:49,964
that they have too much cocaine, and the
cocaine is so much cheaper, so they're

1587
01:13:49,964 --> 01:13:53,745
willing to risk, like the Caribbean route
was not their main route for the past

1588
01:13:53,775 --> 01:13:55,245
couple of years, or even decades, right?

1589
01:13:55,245 --> 01:13:56,625
It was overland through Mexico.

1590
01:13:56,625 --> 01:13:58,934
So now they're like, fuck
it, we have all this cocaine.

1591
01:13:58,934 --> 01:14:02,235
We just need to get cocaine to
our markets in Europe and Asia.

1592
01:14:02,535 --> 01:14:04,724
Um, which is where the markets
are actually growing the most.

1593
01:14:04,724 --> 01:14:06,974
Like there is some growth in North
America, but it seems like, you

1594
01:14:06,974 --> 01:14:09,915
know, uh, Southeast Asia, east
Asia, like Europe, that's where

1595
01:14:09,915 --> 01:14:11,205
you're getting most of the cocaine.

1596
01:14:11,684 --> 01:14:12,705
Um, consumption growth.

1597
01:14:12,825 --> 01:14:16,094
We just need to get cocaine to those
markets and it's so cheap that whatever,

1598
01:14:16,094 --> 01:14:19,184
if they blow up a couple cargoes in the
middle of the Caribbean, that's fine.

1599
01:14:19,184 --> 01:14:21,134
Like the United States isn't gonna
be able to blow all of it up.

1600
01:14:21,134 --> 01:14:24,105
So let's just send as much cocaine
as we possibly can out there.

1601
01:14:24,105 --> 01:14:25,424
That's, that's my working theory.

1602
01:14:25,545 --> 01:14:29,115
Marko Papic: Well, look, uh, I'm
gonna close on a positive note here.

1603
01:14:29,295 --> 01:14:29,535
Yeah.

1604
01:14:31,155 --> 01:14:35,054
Uh, you just said the European
consumption of cocaine is going up, right?

1605
01:14:35,085 --> 01:14:35,474
Yes.

1606
01:14:35,745 --> 01:14:36,105
Jacob Shapiro: Is it not?

1607
01:14:36,105 --> 01:14:36,320
I thought it was.

1608
01:14:36,434 --> 01:14:36,554
I

1609
01:14:36,554 --> 01:14:38,625
Marko Papic: mean, I mean, there you go.

1610
01:14:39,660 --> 01:14:43,650
Everybody thinks Europe is just a museum
full of old people that has no future.

1611
01:14:43,650 --> 01:14:46,080
I mean, not according to that stat.

1612
01:14:46,169 --> 01:14:48,870
At least they're doing lines.

1613
01:14:48,959 --> 01:14:52,259
You know, like maybe that
will invigorate the continent.

1614
01:14:53,099 --> 01:14:53,549
Jacob Shapiro: Well, I love this.

1615
01:14:53,549 --> 01:14:55,110
I, I just double checked myself.

1616
01:14:55,440 --> 01:14:55,980
Uh, yes.

1617
01:14:55,980 --> 01:14:57,540
Cocaine conception has
been an upward train.

1618
01:14:57,629 --> 01:15:01,950
An extensive study of waste water
across 128 European cities in 26

1619
01:15:01,950 --> 01:15:07,049
countries reveals a significant
increase in cocaine use since 2016.

1620
01:15:07,080 --> 01:15:09,690
And for the seventh year in a row, EU
member states reported record amount.

1621
01:15:09,690 --> 01:15:10,169
Where do they say

1622
01:15:10,169 --> 01:15:10,980
Marko Papic: exactly where?

1623
01:15:11,490 --> 01:15:14,940
Jacob Shapiro: Uh, well, they say.

1624
01:15:15,690 --> 01:15:19,590
128 cities in 26 countries, but the
countries that they call out, which

1625
01:15:19,590 --> 01:15:22,349
doesn't mean they're the top ones, but
they call out Belgium, Netherlands.

1626
01:15:22,380 --> 01:15:26,130
Oh, Belgium, Belgium, Netherlands,
and Spain account for 72% of the

1627
01:15:26,130 --> 01:15:28,410
cocaine seized by governments.

1628
01:15:28,410 --> 01:15:30,269
So that doesn't mean they're the
ones that are doing the most, but

1629
01:15:30,269 --> 01:15:32,940
those are at least the places where
the governments are seizing it.

1630
01:15:33,030 --> 01:15:33,090
Yeah.

1631
01:15:35,820 --> 01:15:36,570
Marko Papic: Oh my God.

1632
01:15:36,570 --> 01:15:38,849
I think that also needs
a podcast by itself.

1633
01:15:38,849 --> 01:15:42,780
But again, you know, you hear a lot of
this, uh, kind of narrative that Europe

1634
01:15:42,780 --> 01:15:45,570
is sclerotic and just without any vigor.

1635
01:15:47,340 --> 01:15:48,269
They took the advice and.

1636
01:15:49,139 --> 01:15:50,400
Did some lines, I guess.

1637
01:15:50,940 --> 01:15:51,150
Jacob Shapiro: Yeah.

1638
01:15:51,210 --> 01:15:54,450
I mean, I'm, I'm only joking about Gen
Z, uh, snorting a bunch of cocaine, but

1639
01:15:54,450 --> 01:15:57,720
I did, I did think, because I'm, I'm a
little mystified by the US continuing

1640
01:15:57,720 --> 01:15:59,700
to just bomb boats in the Caribbean.

1641
01:15:59,700 --> 01:16:02,460
I, I also just wanted to point out
that last week the US hit a boat.

1642
01:16:02,490 --> 01:16:06,030
The Colombian government said, uh, that
wasn't Venezuelan, that was Colombian,

1643
01:16:06,059 --> 01:16:07,889
and you killed Colombian citizens.

1644
01:16:08,280 --> 01:16:12,030
And now the US Columbia relationship
continues to unravel, like very quietly,

1645
01:16:12,030 --> 01:16:15,269
I think one of the most significant
breakdowns in US foreign policy.

1646
01:16:15,269 --> 01:16:15,330
Yeah.

1647
01:16:15,330 --> 01:16:18,120
Like that was the most important US
security partner in South America.

1648
01:16:18,120 --> 01:16:21,870
And between, God, it feels so long ago
that Trump was tweeting at Petro about

1649
01:16:21,870 --> 01:16:25,960
illegal migration, and then they've signed
onto Belton Road, um, everything else.

1650
01:16:26,035 --> 01:16:26,940
Oh, I, I'm sorry.

1651
01:16:26,940 --> 01:16:28,349
One other statistic about cocaine.

1652
01:16:28,349 --> 01:16:29,070
That was incredible.

1653
01:16:29,070 --> 01:16:29,910
I was doing research.

1654
01:16:30,120 --> 01:16:33,420
They think that this, this will be the
year that cocaine produces more revenue

1655
01:16:33,420 --> 01:16:35,010
for the Colombian economy than oil.

1656
01:16:36,015 --> 01:16:37,095
Like insane.

1657
01:16:37,155 --> 01:16:37,335
Right.

1658
01:16:37,395 --> 01:16:39,465
Marko Papic: Even, even though
the prices have collapsed.

1659
01:16:39,495 --> 01:16:39,795
Jacob Shapiro: Yes.

1660
01:16:39,825 --> 01:16:40,035
Just

1661
01:16:40,035 --> 01:16:41,235
Marko Papic: think
about that for a second.

1662
01:16:41,505 --> 01:16:42,195
Oh my god.

1663
01:16:42,195 --> 01:16:42,375
Yeah.

1664
01:16:42,375 --> 01:16:43,965
That's, that's a lot of cocaine.

1665
01:16:44,625 --> 01:16:45,615
That's a lot of cocaine.

1666
01:16:45,615 --> 01:16:45,795
Yeah.

1667
01:16:45,795 --> 01:16:48,735
Well, I mean, uh, wow.

1668
01:16:48,795 --> 01:16:50,355
Um, I don't know what to say about that.

1669
01:16:50,385 --> 01:16:51,345
That's very interesting.

1670
01:16:51,585 --> 01:16:51,645
Yeah.

1671
01:16:51,675 --> 01:16:53,175
Um, but,

1672
01:16:53,175 --> 01:16:55,875
Jacob Shapiro: um, you, you were
trying to land the plane and I would,

1673
01:16:55,875 --> 01:16:59,565
in my La Dodgers fashion, I was like,
here is a cocaine curve ball, Marco.

1674
01:16:59,570 --> 01:17:01,695
I'm just, I'm just gonna
lay this in right here.

1675
01:17:01,845 --> 01:17:02,085
We're gonna go,

1676
01:17:02,085 --> 01:17:02,565
Marko Papic: no, you know what?

1677
01:17:02,685 --> 01:17:05,655
I think, I think the only way to
land the plane on this is that, uh,

1678
01:17:05,715 --> 01:17:08,625
this is probably what's gonna happen
with a lot of soft commodities,

1679
01:17:08,625 --> 01:17:09,735
which you are an expert on.

1680
01:17:09,915 --> 01:17:10,125
Jacob Shapiro: Mm-hmm.

1681
01:17:10,215 --> 01:17:10,395
Yeah.

1682
01:17:10,845 --> 01:17:10,935
There

1683
01:17:10,935 --> 01:17:11,115
Marko Papic: you go.

1684
01:17:11,115 --> 01:17:12,295
As emerging market tastes change.

1685
01:17:13,845 --> 01:17:17,535
Right, because the Southeast Asia and
like the emerging markets like starting

1686
01:17:17,535 --> 01:17:22,815
to develop a taste for some Coke, I
mean, that is also the same argument

1687
01:17:22,815 --> 01:17:25,305
for coffee, for chocolates, for cocoa.

1688
01:17:25,905 --> 01:17:26,210
Jacob Shapiro: A lot of, yeah.

1689
01:17:26,210 --> 01:17:29,355
And it's also, if I, if I really want
to stretch, it's also an argument

1690
01:17:29,355 --> 01:17:31,935
against what you were talking about
with globalization because any of

1691
01:17:31,935 --> 01:17:34,665
these things that get globalized,
the price of these things collapses

1692
01:17:34,665 --> 01:17:37,785
and the people that produce them
come under significant strain.

1693
01:17:38,265 --> 01:17:42,975
And I think part of Trump's protectionism
and part of the, the glorification of

1694
01:17:42,975 --> 01:17:45,855
hard labor and industrial work again,
which we, you know, we talked about

1695
01:17:45,855 --> 01:17:48,765
that months ago about how strange it
was that we're glorifying that now.

1696
01:17:48,765 --> 01:17:49,635
Part of that is.

1697
01:17:50,095 --> 01:17:50,395
Okay.

1698
01:17:50,395 --> 01:17:54,505
Like the more you globalize, like yes we
all get cheap widgets and all these other

1699
01:17:54,505 --> 01:17:58,195
things, but like people actually like the
people who were making the things, their

1700
01:17:58,195 --> 01:18:01,615
lives are destroyed and these governments
are not taking care of those people.

1701
01:18:01,615 --> 01:18:04,405
And so you have political movements
that are rising that service those

1702
01:18:04,405 --> 01:18:07,795
people who are, you know, out there
in the streets and protesting and

1703
01:18:07,795 --> 01:18:08,995
making their voices heard with votes.

1704
01:18:08,995 --> 01:18:11,605
So there, there's something in there
too about the lower you drive the

1705
01:18:11,605 --> 01:18:14,515
cost of these things, the more you're
affecting the producers and that some

1706
01:18:14,515 --> 01:18:17,725
of the politics that we're seeing is
about trying to help the producers.

1707
01:18:17,755 --> 01:18:19,915
I don't know, I'd have to put
some more meat on that bone, but,

1708
01:18:21,625 --> 01:18:23,635
Marko Papic: well, alright.

1709
01:18:24,565 --> 01:18:24,775
Alright.

1710
01:18:24,775 --> 01:18:28,375
I think, uh, I think we have,
uh, exhausted our energy on

1711
01:18:28,375 --> 01:18:32,935
this podcast and neither one of
us is going to rely on a bump.

1712
01:18:33,540 --> 01:18:34,410
To get it back up.

1713
01:18:34,500 --> 01:18:38,340
Jacob Shapiro: No, no, that's, that's
never been my, uh, never been my vice.

1714
01:18:38,370 --> 01:18:38,730
Okay.

1715
01:18:38,790 --> 01:18:39,599
We'll talk, however,

1716
01:18:39,870 --> 01:18:42,059
Marko Papic: if anybody wants to
sponsor the podcast from the beer

1717
01:18:42,059 --> 01:18:44,010
industry, we will drink beer.

1718
01:18:44,160 --> 01:18:44,370
Jacob Shapiro: Yeah.

1719
01:18:44,370 --> 01:18:44,880
On the show.

1720
01:18:44,940 --> 01:18:45,570
That would be great.

1721
01:18:45,570 --> 01:18:50,490
And please, like both Barstool stores,
Barto Sports and The Ringer, we're open.

1722
01:18:50,519 --> 01:18:52,740
Like there, there's an opportunity
for both of you to be on the

1723
01:18:52,740 --> 01:18:55,530
ground floor of geopolitics and
you're both just wasting it.

1724
01:18:55,530 --> 01:18:57,120
Like seriously, like
get your shit together.

1725
01:18:59,639 --> 01:18:59,849
Alright,

1726
01:18:59,849 --> 01:19:01,320
Marko Papic: Jacob, great
talking to you, Matt.