On February 28th, the US and Israel struck Iran. The

Strait of Hormuz, which takes 20% of

the world's oil supply, is still closed. And

it all jumped from $72 US to $106. Petrol

in Sydney is already at like nearly $3. And some

stations are well over $3. And if you think this

is just a Middle East problem, think again. It's

affecting us right here in Australia, as I'm sure you already know. Now,

Australia imports 90% of our fuel. We

have 36 days of reserves. Two refineries left down

from eight remain in Australia. We are the most exposed

developed nation on the planet. I'm Matthew Fraser, an

eight-figure entrepreneur and seven-figure crypto investor. Now,

in this episode, I'm breaking down the full economic timeline of

what your groceries and airfares are about to cost and

how Bitcoin fits into this picture when the government inevitably

starts printing dollars. On February 28th, the

US and Israel hit Iran. And four weeks later, the Strait of

Hormuz, the choke point for 20% of the world's

oil, is still effectively closed. Now, Australia imports 90% of

our fuel, and we've got about 36 days of reserves. according

to the Energy Minister, Chris Bowen. Now,

do we even believe a single word that he says? Absolutely

not. He's basically saying right now, there's nothing to see here,

there's no crisis. But yeah, let's see

what happens there. Now this isn't some Middle East problem. This

is smashing every Uber driver, tradie, mum, doing

the school run, retirees and farmers right now.

Now if you're not stacking Bitcoin yet, you're about to wish you

had. So stick around, this one's going to be a killer. Let's

dive in. Right, so here's the simple version. Iran controls the

narrowest bit of water between the Persian Gulf and the open ocean.

Every day, tankers carrying Saudi, Iraqi, UAE

oil, all of it, sail through there. Now, as soon as the strike started,

shipping giants shut it down. Tankers are getting attacked. Insurance

is through the roof. Now, the result, global oil supply

just got slashed. Now, Australia doesn't even produce enough

refined petrol and diesel anymore. We've got only

like two operational refineries left in the

entire country. Ampol's Leighton Refinery

in Brisbane and Viva Energy's Geelong Refinery in

Victoria. Now these two sites together supply less than

20% of the total fuel needs. The other 80% we

import mostly from Asia. Now, we used

to have eight refineries back in 2005. The

rest have all been shut down or turned into import terminals

under successive governments. But it's Albo and

Labor's reckless management that's left us exposed

right now. They've let our domestic refining capacity collapse

while they subsidise the last two just to keep the lights on.

And that's exactly why we're screwed when a crisis like

this hits. Westpac economists Pat Bustamante

and NAB are now saying petrol could hit $2.80 to $3. And at the

day of recording, it's nearly there. Now, diesel

is already well over $3. And that's before

panic buying kicks in. Because wait for it, because as of

today, they're now talking about putting in petrol caps.

from anywhere between 20 to $40 per fill

up, okay? Which is gonna get you basically squadly

did when it comes to filling up your car. Now, this

has already started rolling out in places like WA and Queensland. So

what happens now when the panic starts setting in and

all these petrol caps start being

implemented? Well, step one, transport costs explode.

Every single thing you buy moves by truck or plane. Freight

companies just got hit with a 40 to 50% higher fuel

bill overnight. So they pass it straight on. Step

two, inflation goes nuclear. The

RBA already warned trimmed mean inflation could smash 5% in

quarter two. NAB chief economist Sally Auld

is now forecasting even higher pressure from these petrol spikes. NAB

says, unless oil comes back down fast, we're looking at another

rate hike. And I would say way more than one. Your mortgage just

got way more expensive while your wages stay the same. And

this is all on top of Labor's reckless federal spending that's

already been driving these RBA rate rises for months. Now,

step three. Business carnage. Mining

in WA, diesel powered, is already cutting

shifts. Farmers can't afford to run machinery if they can even

get the fuel. Supermarkets can't keep shelves stocked without

jacking prices. Step four, the domino

effect. Airlines, Qantas and Virgin have already hiked

fares. Jet fuel has just doubled, right? Tourism dies.

Exports die. Unemployment ticks up. And

then the banks start sweating on bad loans. Now,

this is the rigged system at work. Governments and

central banks have left us wide open while they print money

and tell us inflation is transitory. It's

bullshit. It's here. Now, just to be clear, I'm

no chief economist. I'm an average bloke

who's made a bit of money on the side and invest a lot into the Bitcoin

crypto space. But I ran this past Grok

AI. I said, look, based on things like the GFC and

COVID, what is the outcome? What are we likely to see

with petrol prices going through the roof? And this is

what they said. Week one

to four, which is we're basically here now. Petrol is

going to be up 50% a litre. Panic buying will

start sitting in. Airfare's up. ASX has already

gone down over 6%. And month one, fuel

rationing talk starts, which we're already seeing

now. And some petrol stations have already implemented

their own rationing system. At the same time, you've

got Albo saying, and Chris Bowen, Everything's

great. People should not be worried. But yet, that's

exactly what is happening on the ground. There's a complete disconnect right now

between what is actually happening on the ground and what the politicians

are saying. Now, keep this in mind, though. Alpo's not

going to come onto the TV and say, yeah, we're fucked.

This country is doomed. Petrol is going to go at probably $5, $6 a

litre. You won't be able to afford groceries. The

whole economy is going to lock down. People would go

absolutely mental. So I understand he's

feeding us a whole bunch of baloney to try and keep

things calm. before there's riots in the street, but

I dare say that could be happening. So month

two to three, if the Hormuz Straits stays

shut, physical shortages, right? Diesel for mining and

farms runs slow, if not completely dry.

Unemployment spikes severely. GDP growth drops sharply and

recession territory. Month six plus, full

economic unravel. Westpac modelling shows if

oil averages $90 plus for a

barrel, for the quarter, we lose 0.1% growth

minimum. As the head of business and industry economics, Fenner, has

laid out. Prolonged, think 2008 levels,

but with way higher inflation. Jim Chalmers has

already warned that if this drags on inflation could push past

5% and we could see GDP take a much bigger hit. Now

government says we've got reserves for six months but

only if no panic and no further attacks. Hey guys,

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today. Now. Back to the episode. So what should we now

expect in the future? What will hit our hip pocket? Well, let's get

real about this and have a look at the weekly shop. I

think petrol will already, it's up 40, 50% already

today. So expect $3 to $4 at

the very least for just your average petrol buy per litre.

So you fill up a 60 litre tank, you're looking at at least $60 to $100 plus every

time you fill up. Now groceries or freight is 80% of

the cost for fresh food, milk, bread, meat. So plus 30% in

the next eight weeks. NAB says overall food

inflation could hit 8 to 10%. plastics

and packaging, everything from bin bags to bottled water

is oil derived. So expect that to be 25 to

40% increase. Airfares and holidays, jet fuel just

doubled. Qantas already announced hikes. Domestic flights

up 30% and international flights up 50%. I

honestly don't know who is even contemplating now having

to travel unless it's an absolute emergency. fertilizer

and farming inputs up massively. So fruit, veggies,

dairy, probably follow in three to four months. Clothes,

toys, electronics, polyester, shipping, everything

is gonna be up. So basically guys, if it moves or

is made from oil, it's getting way more expensive. Your

$100 weekly shop becomes 150 to $200 real

quick. I mean, I just went to the grocery store three days ago, came

back with three bags, over $300. I mean, it's

absolutely insane. Now, the part that you

guys have been waiting for. While stocks tanked

and gold barely moved, Bitcoin is up roughly 7% to

10% since the strikes started. So sitting at around 71,000 USD

and showing real resilience. A lot of people say that

this is really the base or the benchmark now moving

forward. It did for a day when oil first spiked and then

decoupled hard. ETF inflows have stayed strong. And

Michael Saylor continues to put the pedal to the

metal and push a lot of money into Bitcoin, into

the tune of billions of dollars. Because the smart money

knows fiat currencies and the dollar system get wrecked in

these energy shocks. Inflation hedge, portable, no

counterparty. Now we saw the same thing in 2022 with

the Russia-Ukraine war. BTC dipped and

then it roared. Past oil crises crushed economies

hard, but assets won. Bitcoin is the

new gold on steroids. Now, during this exact war,

while the S&P fell 2%, Bitcoin rose 2.4% in

the same period and has kept climbing. It's already acting

like the geopolitical hedge Aussies need. Now, like I

said before, I'm no chief economist, accountant, or

anything like that. I research a lot about the history of

money and Bitcoin. But I don't know much about war

tactics. I don't know what Trump's doing. I certainly don't know what

Australia seem to be doing. Yeah, we seem to be absolutely nothing when

it comes to looking after the people. But let me talk about Simon Dixon and

what his take is on this Iran war.

He's the bloke from BTC Sessions and Bank to

the Future. Go and research him. He says, stop watching

the missiles and start watching the money. Now,

this isn't just a nation-state war. It's the financial-industrial complex

using the chaos to demolish the old dollar-based order so

they can rebuild a multipolar world with new contracts. Military-industrial

complex gets the weapons spending, but the banks and

big finance are already pricing in the reconstruction phase.

Now Simon's take? The war drains munitions,

spikes oil, weakens some currencies short

term. The dollar actually strengthened a bit at first, but

sets up the next system. So Russia quietly wins energy

dominance, and China sits back. Now what about for everyday Australians?

If you've got Bitcoin in self-custody, you freaking win.

It's the ultimate hedge. Portable wealth, no one can freeze

it when the banks or governments get desperate, and I'm sure

they will. You keep your purchasing power while inflation eats

everyone else. So it's sovereign wealth. Now,

if you've got zero Bitcoin, You're stuck in the system. Your

super gets hammered by the inflation and rate hikes, wages

lag, house prices might stall, while everything

else costs more. You're the one paying for the reconstruction contracts

that the big players are already signing. So Dixon's bottom

line, Bitcoin is the self-custody trade of

this reset. Aussies who move early protect their

families. Those who don't, well, the

system wins again. Right, so when does the government actually start

printing a ton of cash like they do in

every crisis? Think back to COVID. How much money

did they print? Think about what happened to everything.

Everything went up in value, but it was inflation

pushing things up like properties, cars, everything. Now,

if you weren't holding hard assets, You got absolutely screwed.

So look, the RBA is not flipping the switch yet on

printing the money. They're still hiking rates like mad trying to kill

this inflation fire from the oil shock and Labor's

complete mismanagement. But mark my words. Once

this fuel crisis tips us into full-blown recession in

the next maybe two to four months, they'll unleash quantitative

easing bigger than the entire COVID era. Now,

some analysts are already calling it stagflation on

steroids. Debt's already through the roof. Unemployment's climbing.

And this is after years of Albo and Labor's reckless

federal spending. They'll have no choice but

to pump billions and billions back into the system to stop

the whole thing collapsing. So we saw it in 2020. This

time, it could be double because the system's even

more rigid and fragile. And here's the kicker for Bitcoin, the

ultimate hard asset. If every single time governments print like

this to paper over their messes, fiat currency gets

absolutely debased and Bitcoin goes parabolic.

We've watched it after COVID, now it'll be on steroids

again. So while everyone's savings gets eaten alive by

inflation, and your dollar buys less and less, your

self-custody Bitcoin stack just protects and multiplies your

real wealth. No counterparty, no government can

touch it, and that's why smart money's already stacking.

Because Bitcoin isn't just money, it's your escape hatch from

the printing press that's coming for every Aussie without it.

So there it is guys, the Iran war fuel crisis is already hitting

us and it can unravel the economy in just a few short

months. Everyday prices are going to go up fast and

Bitcoin is proving it's the hedge. And with the government about

to print bigger than COVID after Albo and Labor's reckless

spending left us this exposed, the smart move is

clear. Stack Bitcoin, self-custody it,

use it inside your SMSF if you can. It's the lowest hanging

fruit to protect you against the currency debasement into

the future. and the fastest way to learn exactly how

we're doing in Australia, join Australia's fastest growing free

crypto community right now. Link in the description and

pinned in the comments. So guys, let me know how you're feeling about this

energy shock, the fuel prices that are already at sky high

prices. Are the politicians telling us a bunch of furfies or

are they just trying to keep things calm and just do the right

thing and show true leadership? Smash the like button if this opened

your eyes or you want to join the conversation. and I'll see you in

the next one. In the meantime, build sovereign wealth. The

system isn't coming to save you, but Bitcoin will. Take

care. Hey, thanks for tuning into Crypto Collective. If

you enjoyed this video, the best way to show your support is to

subscribe to the channel, or if you're listening on Spotify, leave

a five-star review. It really helps me to create more

content just for you. Also, if you're ready

to level up your crypto journey, make sure to check out CoinStash. It's

the platform that I trust to buy, sell, and hold

crypto with ease. You can also find more of me at

I'm Matthew Fraser on all social media platforms. Take