Foreign.

Hey, it's breakdown season.

Welcome back to the fantasy football game plan.

I'm here with Quinton and all of his data analysis to start our divisional breakdowns.

We're kicking off the A with the AFC East.

We've got training camp in action and it feels like football's back.

You got any stories from training camp?

Yeah, we're.

It's hard to believe that it's already here and in a week or so we'll have our have the fake hall of Fame game.

But for the past couple days we've just had a few teams back at camp, one of those being the Chargers.

I did see that Herbert has transformed into a vampire and now there's some pictures coming out of training camp where he has these like bright red contacts he's been wearing and catching some guys off guard in the huddle.

So that's been interesting.

Yeah.

You think that's inspired by the Najee Harris eye incident from July 4th?

Yeah, maybe.

Those are Najee's prescriptions and Herbert's borrowing a few to prepare him for the season.

But besides that, just a few highlights.

We're getting injury news that when we get into some of these teams, we'll cover and hit.

But yeah, should be fun.

Next couple weeks of diving into it.

Yeah, definitely.

So before we get started, I want to remind everyone that if there are any ladies out there looking for women only fantasy football leagues, please, please check out fangirlfootball.com and I'll have a link in the description of this episode.

We have leagues forming right now so you can jump in and get started playing.

So let's dive into the AFC east and we're going to kick it off with the Buffalo Bills.

Projected win total is 11 and a half.

How you feeling about that?

Yeah, and Buffalo is one of the teams and we'll kind of notice this trend towards the top of the afc, but not a lot of change that we're getting into.

I think the 11 half is fair.

They're going to play a difficult first place schedule, but this is still the same team that we're used to.

Not a lot changing.

We'll highlight some of the other personnel change.

So.

So one of them.

Yeah, I agree.

Yeah, they averaged 31 points last year per game and I expect the same in 2025.

I feel like the only thing that can change that and can affect this 11 and a half win total is if this division gets any stronger and we'll be talking about the rest of the division, the Dolphins, the Patriots and the Jets And I feel like a couple of those are getting a little bit stronger and they may put up a better fight in the division.

I think overall the theme for fantasy last year with the Bills was everyone wanted one of the targets to step forward into that lead role.

And we just saw.

We saw Josh Allen put up an amazing season right behind Lamar for the top two quarterback spots, but there was no clear one target.

Shakir kind of absorbed a lot of the targets, but they weren't high value and you didn't have that lead guy.

So there are a couple off season departures that could make way for one of those guys to step up.

But overall, we're probably going to see a pretty similar picture and probably have some similar frustrations this season.

Yeah, I think we'll see a lot more of the same.

They did like to run the ball.

That seemed to be the priority in the offense last year.

So we've got three running backs again there with Cook wanting a new contract, but he did show up to training camp.

But do we get to see more of Ray Davis this year or are they going to continue the split?

I think so.

And especially in the game that James Cook didn't play, Ray Davis was a great fantasy option.

I think this team is committed to running the ball available on the overlay, you can kind of see the personnel groupings that this team was using and those personnel grouping where they have an asterisk.

So they're running 11 personnel and 12 personnel, but they were actually bringing in an extra blocker on those sets just to run the ball.

They're running the ball except when they were outside of 11 personnel.

They're running the ball over 50% of the time and they were leaning heavily into that run game.

So if there's any dispute with Cook, if he decides he wants to hold out or if he misses any time for injury, then I think Ray Davis is going to be a great value.

Yeah, Ray Davis has got to be that handcuff to Cook, I think, because if he's out, like you said, it's going to be the Ray Davis show or Josh Allen.

I'm not too worried.

But we, we see them running a lot.

So let's take a step back and we're showing here the personnel chart that, that you developed for us.

But can you explain the personnel?

Because I didn't know that much about it.

Yeah.

Throughout the episode we're going to be using these terms when we're talking about personnel.

Some of the Most common are 11 personnel and 12 personnel.

Run the NFL and those numbers, the first number is the amount of running backs that are on the field.

The second number is the amount of tight ends on the field.

And this is assuming five down linemen and one cornerback, and then the rest are receivers.

So when you're in 11 personnel, you have three wide receivers.

When you're in 12 personnel, one of those wide receivers gets turned into a tight end.

If you hear like 21 or 22, that means there's two running backs on the field.

And then on our charts, if you see the aster, then that means they're bringing in an extra blocker.

All right, thank you for that explanation.

So you think Keon Coleman can step into a bigger role?

You've got his target share.

Your predicted target share going up for Coleman.

Is he going to actually deliver?

Are those targets going to turn into points?

I guess is the real question.

Can he actually catch the ball this year?

Yeah, I think it's probably going to be a similar deployment and he's going to be on the outside letting Shakir take the slot roll.

But they don't have Amari Cooper.

They let him go in free agency and Matt Collins is also gone.

So I think Keon Coleman's going to be asked to be kind of that every down outside wide receiver.

So that's why I kind of have him getting a bump.

I mean, he was taken early in the second round and I have him bumping up from a 10% target share to about a 15% this year.

So not a significant.

I don't think he's going to be a great fantasy option still, but maybe interesting on some daily fantasy options.

All right.

I still like him.

He's always funny.

And they brought in Joshua Palmer.

Yeah.

So.

And it looks like you basically have just slotted in Joshua Palmer to Mack Holland's old target share.

I kind of see them as the same dependable option.

You know, they have a place on this roster.

They're going to give some production, but not a overall.

It's just going to help Josh Allen continue being great and be another option, but not a fantasy go to.

The only other thing I kind of am projecting is I think those targets for Kincaid are going to be a lot more valuable.

He still cut out a pretty decent chunk of that offense last year, even though he didn't take that step forward.

He had a great rookie season.

Everyone was projecting him to kind of take a leap, but he suffered a knee injury throughout the course of the season.

And also early in the season, Buffalo early in games were looking at him as a go to target, but they just weren't in competitive games, so they didn't need him.

And then he kind of didn't get the production.

If they're in competitive games and he's healthy, I think he has a much larger opportunity and actually could step into those, like, old Mark Andrews roles where he's the red zone target and he's a go to for Josh Allen.

Once they get close to the goal.

Line, hopefully he can stay healthy this year.

I think that's like the overarching, you know, thing with fantasy football.

If they can just stay healthy, it's like trying to pick who isn't going to hit that injury minefield.

Yeah.

So you like the 11 and a half?

You over or under on it?

I think I'm probably just over on this.

I don't think this is a bet I'm going to be able to the a bet that I will take just because, you know, we're talking about no injuries and nothing happening.

But it's really just such a small line to take that over that I probably won't lay money on it.

But if things go right, the team stays healthy, then, yeah, this should be a 12 or 13 win team.

Yeah, I. I like them for 12, but like you said, it's hard.

The difference in 11 and 12 is pretty big and they can win this division with only 11 wins, I think.

Yeah.

All right, let's move on to Miami.

Projected win total there is seven and a half.

It's a little bit of a surprise.

Same coaches, but it feels like Mike McDaniel is on the hot seat here and just trying to save his job.

Yeah, we went from a very promising Miami team going into last year.

You know, everyone was very hopeful about what TUA and those explosive wide receivers can do.

And now it kind of feels like one of those videos where it's like one of those nature videos where a glacier flips and like, right about the tipping point and is it all about to go underwater and we have a new quarterback, new coach coming into next year?

I. Yeah, it kind of seems that way right now.

I don't like what they did in the off season.

They.

They didn't do a whole lot and unlike the Bills, they weren't in a good spot.

Yeah, some of the other teams we'll talk about, like, all of their moves made sense together, but their free agency plan and their draft just did not work well with.

What are they trying to do last year at the end of the season, it was protect tua, get the Ball out of his hand quickly, keep him upright and make sure that he's your quarterback moving forward.

But this team did not prioritize the offensive line.

Their all pro left tackle Tyron Armstrong retired and they brought in a free agent left guard.

They drafted a rookie right guard but overall I think that line is going to be a lot weaker this year.

You also got rid of your tight end and drafted some more skill positions.

It didn't, it didn't make sense.

It didn't make sense.

And Johnu Smith asking for that trade and getting it and leaving there screams at me that he doesn't believe in this team and he knows what's going on better inside it better than anybody.

So that's Mikey, that something isn't right here and you look at everything like you were just saying on paper and it's like, what are you doing?

One other note too is that they got rid of Ramsey.

I don't think Fitzpatrick that they brought in from the trade on the Steelers is I good in his career.

And they also today I saw one of their cornerbacks is believed to have torn his acl.

So they're going to need some help in that secondary.

I don't think they have the personnel to kind of have a good defense this year.

So we might, they might be forced to chuck it more.

You know, they got rid of their tight end.

It's like still have Waddle and Hill there.

You're going to have to chuck it.

You don't have a good defense.

So it could be some explosive offense to begin the season.

How many games do you think Tua can stay healthy for?

Is he just one concussion away from being done?

Yeah, I especially behind that line.

We'll see if he has the time to throw it, but it'll be a fun first four games.

Well, Devon Achan is going pretty high in drafts.

He finished last year as RB10.

Now he's going to, you know, share with Jalen Wright and Ollie Gordon, the new running back that they, the rookie running back that they brought in.

They got a bargain with Ollie Gordon.

Maybe they're going to use a running back a little bit more as a pass catcher.

I do really like Achan and the entire running back room.

Like you're saying.

That seems to be the only quick outlet that Tua is going to have, especially if Darren Waller isn't in great football shape coming out of retirement.

He's already on the pup list.

So the dolphins used 21 and 22 personnel, significantly higher than the NFL average.

So they have two running backs on the field at the same time and I think those are going to be your outlets.

So I expect a Chan to be a significant contributor in the passing game.

Basically tied with Hill and Waddles for target share and he's going to have to kind of take a step up with his efficiency for them to be a good offense.

Okay, well, I'm not feeling good about their projected win total to seven and a half.

It's funny.

Vegas knows how to set the lines because I'm like, it's like right there.

But I can't see him winning eight games, so I guess I'd take the under.

Yeah, this seems like it's going to either go right and we're all going to be surprised or there's a lot of ways that it goes wrong.

There's two as hell.

There's this offensive line and Mike McDaniel is just, you know, I really liked him as a play caller a couple years ago, but that culture doesn't seem to be like the player doesn't seem from the outside that the players are buying in anymore.

And once you lose that locker room, it can turn quick.

Definitely looks like it's turning.

And I'm kind of, I, I don't even like taking a Chan in drafts.

He just worries me.

I mean, the line concerns me and you aren't going to get a strong runner on a weak line.

And then if we lose Tua and we have to go to Zach Wilson.

Yeah, this is just going to be a disaster.

And we saw last year when Tua was out, it was just bizarre play calling at times.

You know, it was kind of like the wide receivers weren't even there.

And that's when we saw Janu Smith get used so much, was when Tua was out and they wouldn't even throw it to the running or to the wide receivers.

So it's.

I don't see Tua playing 17 games, that's for sure.

On a positive Miami note, I know we are both very high on their rookie running back they took in the sixth round.

Do you want to tell us a little bit more about Ollie Gordon?

Yeah, Ollie Gordon fell to the sixth round after a DUI last year in college, in the college season.

So he ended up falling in the draft.

He.

If he'd been drafted in 2023 or after the 2023 season, then he would have probably been a second or a third round running back pick.

So they got a real bargain here.

He's a good runner and I think we'll get to See him with the way this team is constructed right now.

Also to I don't know that he'll be fantasy relevant but you know, by the end of the year he just might be.

Yeah.

And to kind of speak on that a little bit more and how good he was and it's his potential given if we're ignoring the off the field issues, but his potential.

He won best college running back a couple years ago and here are some of the names that are on the list with him.

So since 2014 we have Melvin Gordon, Derrick Henry, Deontay Foreman, Bryce Love, Jonathan Taylor twice Nathan Najee Harris, Kenneth Walker, Bijan Ali Gordon and then Ashton Genty last year.

That is an impressive list of running backs and he does have a true ceiling outcome.

If we think that Achan might not be able to handle the workload and they're using two running back sets, I think he has potential to shine early in his career.

Yeah, I like him too.

And we didn't see much out of Jalen Wright last year.

I mean last year was his rookie season and they didn't go to him a whole lot.

I'm not sure.

I think at some point in the year Mike McDaniel said he needed to step up his game and maybe he's already fallen out with the coach.

There's just something weird going on in this locker room though.

Yeah.

But nice thing is winning fixes everything.

I think we're both.

The NFL is more fun when we have the explosive Miami version of them and they're throwing deep to hill and waddle.

So I'm hoping that we get to see more of that but would not bet on it.

I think we were both taking the under for the seven and a half wins.

Yeah, we are.

All right.

Patriots projected win total at eight and a half.

I think this one is slid up but I pulled it today and it was up to eight and a half which is a little bit surprising to me.

But I'm actually excited about this team.

So we got all new coaches kinda.

Mike Vrabel is back and he was the Titans head coach for five years.

Five seasons.

So it's very interesting that he's coming back into New England, but then he's bringing back Josh McDaniels and as Colts fans, I don't think you or I can, you know, really Forget the whole McDaniels welching on the Colt, but that was probably the best thing that happened.

I don't know, it was all just a disaster for the colts then.

Anyhow.

McDaniels is back with the Patriots after sitting out last year and now they've got a new defensive coordinator as well.

How you feeling about this team?

Yeah, this is a team that continues to have their over kind of keep bumping up in the betting markets.

The public is really liking the Patriots and it's easy to see why Of I think their coaching got a lot better.

Frable is at least a professional and I think he did a lot with that Tennessee roster a few years ago and really they just didn't have the talent to compete anymore.

But then we saw a lot of promise from Drake May too and him kind of making the best of a really bad situation last year.

It kind of does remind me of like early in Herbert's career where like you could watch him and you're like this is a good quarterback but the situation was just terrible around him.

So we'll see if that line is a significant improvement.

It was one of the worst offensive lines last year, but you can't say they're not trying to fix it in those skill positions.

I mean I think they were led by Keisha Boute and Demario Douglas, which would be like wide receiver threes and fours on other teams.

Before we get to the wide receivers, let's talk about the running backs, particularly the new rookie running back that they brought in.

And like you said, Mike Brabel had extreme success with Derrick Henry and we know he wants a run first offense.

So this year they brought in Treveon Henderson with their second round pick.

How are you feeling about Henderson versus Ramandre Stevenson?

I really like Treveon Henderson.

I think Ramandre is being a little overlooked right now in fantasy just because everyone wants new rookie.

But I think they're going to use both of them together and I think you're going to see a lot of 21 personnel and that's what Josh McDaniels has done in his past.

He's like to use two running backs on the field more often than the NFL average.

So I think we'll see sets where both of them are on and I'm excited to see Treveon Henderson's passing game work.

You know that's not really Ramandre's specialty.

So if he's getting those valuable touches in space then I think you could kind of have some fantasy value early and maybe he's a flex early and then kind of works into that RB2 RB1 discussion towards the later half.

Yeah, I don't like Stevenson's health is a concern for me.

He seems to get Injured quite a bit, which is going to make Henderson's opportunities increase.

So I do like that.

What about Drake May?

Rushing?

Yeah, he rushes a lot more than you would think.

And when you just look at, like, percentage of their points that come from rushing, he's actually right next to Lamar, which seems insane.

It does, you know.

Well, it also seems insane that Lamar only had one rushing touchdown last year.

Yeah.

And I had to go check my.

My facts to make sure when I pulled the date on that, I'm like, really?

But yeah, so he does scramble at a high volume, or not at a high volume, but high efficiency.

When he does take off, he takes off early in the downs.

He.

He's very decisive and then gets that first down and doesn't really take too many hits.

He's already taken enough hits behind that offensive line, so I think he has some good upside.

My concern is more, do we think those pass catchers are going to be a step up enough from last year for him to be a viable fantasy option?

Well, he did pretty well, especially some.

You know, he filled in for me on my fantasy league last year towards middle to late in the season and did fairly well.

So his wide receivers got an upgrade this year.

Stefan Diggs, he's 31 and he's coming off his torn ACL.

I don't know.

They say he's looking good.

In training camp, I saw the pictures of him.

At first I didn't believe it, but then I actually saw the pictures of him at training camp catching a football with his helmet on, which was good to see.

So maybe Diggs can, you know, make a comeback and lead.

These wide receivers, they've also got a rookie that came in as well.

So somebody's got to be the leader here.

And clearly last year we didn't have a leader on the wide receivers.

Yeah, they drafted Jalen Polk in the second round last year and he was abysmal.

He was hardly on the field.

And to not be on the field in that wide receiver locker room, I think he's also hurt this offseason.

So one of those wide receivers is going to be cut, probably.

I do.

I have been impressed that Stefan Diggs has so far in his recovery that they're already working him in on 11.

On 11 and he's fully up to speed.

Was kind of shocked at that.

And so his ADP currently is wide receiver, 41.

I think that's kind of a mismatch in price.

If we like Drake, maybe we like this Pats team to win more games then.

And Stefan Diggs is going to have to be a crucial part of that at wide receiver 41.

I think that's a pretty great price tag.

I, I think you're right.

And yeah, if, if we think they're going to win eight or nine games, it's going to be because Diggs makes a difference.

Yeah, I think that'll be one of the key things to watch out in the next couple weeks is how does Diggs look?

I am interested in Kyle Williams.

He was a pretty fun prospect, pretty clean route running too.

And they want one of those young guys to step up.

Diggs is in the future, so if he can take.

If he can kind of excel early on in his career, that'd be really good.

And then kind of learn behind Diggs and next year really step into that role.

And then we have Demario Douglas returning as well.

And he stuffed up last year.

He did okay.

He had weeks that he.

Where he was a significant wide receiver.

But the star of last year's show was Hunter Henry.

Yeah, Hunter Henry.

Austin Hooper is also dealing with some injury issues currently in training camp.

So Hunter Henry I think is a great option given that we think this offense is going to take a step forward.

Hunter Henry is one of those big targets that as soon as they get in the red zone, they're looking for.

So I think he's going to see kind of just a bump up in touchdowns and that's really all you're looking for for those middle late tight ends is who's going to give me some touchdowns.

So pretty good value, especially in best ball where he's going.

Yeah, I think so.

All right, let's pick on the Patriots.

I. I really want to go on the over.

I believe this team is better than we saw last year and they had exciting moments and a really bad coaching staff.

I think it's going to be one of those where similar to the Lions like three years ago where you can tell this team is a fight every week, but they're not.

They don't quite have the talent to get over the hump and so I'm going to take the under.

I think they'll probably be around 7 or 8, but they will be fun football to watch.

Hopefully they're pushing the Bills and we're getting to see what the Bills actually have then in the two games that they play against them, it's just.

Yeah, the big question is if that offensive line is better than expected, then watch out.

But it's a lot to ask for a rookie left tackle.

All right.

Moving on to the New York Jets.

Projected win total, five and a half.

I like this.

I've actually bet this one.

It's one of the few that I have bet and I'm on the over here.

So let's talk about this.

All new coaching changes.

Aaron Rodgers is gone.

He's no longer poisoning this team.

We have a new head coach in Aaron Glenn, and he's coming in.

He was the defensive coordinator for the Lions for the last three or four seasons.

The offensive coordinator was the passing coordinator for the Lions.

The Lions lost almost all the coaches and I can't wait till we get to them and discuss them because their whole coaching staff other than their head coaches, changed.

And here we have still Steve Wilkes coming in as the defensive coordinator and he's been the head coach for the Panthers before and the head coach for the Arizona Cardinals.

He did take the Panthers to their Super bowl and 2015.

So maybe he can be a better defensive coordinator than head coach.

Yeah, I think this is one of those offseasons where all of it kind of told a story that, you know, we are tired of being the joke of the NFL.

We are tired of headlines coming out about Aaron Rodgers.

We are tired of looking like our guys don't.

Aren't even trying on the field.

So Aaron Glenn and Steve Wilkes, that experience, I think they immediately raised the floor of this team.

I think it's going to be a very different atmosphere in training camp this year and throughout the season.

And I think you're going to have a lot more buy in from those individuals.

They've had talent that we've really liked in the past.

So I think he does immediately raise the floor of that team.

Yeah, last year we had both Garrett Wilson and Breece hall being drafted, you know, basically first round, first to second round.

We thought that the jets were going to be good.

I think we were forgetting how poisonous Aaron Rodgers can be this year.

It's like we're.

I'm still seeing them go pretty low in drafts and nobody's buying back into their talent, even though we did last year.

Like last year, you.

I think Salah was a great defensive coach.

The owner fired him after a few games into the season.

The defense kind of gave up.

Then you had Rodgers running the show, getting them to trade for Adams.

I just like the direction of this organization.

If it doesn't translate to wins, I think it's still just good moves that they've made.

I do, too.

I like Justin Fields getting another chance.

We saw him with the Steelers last year, get Benched after winning games, which made us all scratch our heads.

But I, I like him coming in here and we'll get to see what he can actually do.

He's going to be the starter.

He's going to be Justin Fields, and we get to see if he can do something in a relatively good coaching situation, it seems like.

Yeah, and with a rushing quarterback, too, I think you're going to have more sustained drives.

You know, we're probably not going to have the passing volumes to maybe give Garrett Wilson, true wide receiver 1 options.

I think he.

When you look at the competition for targets, maybe he'll get there purely on volume, similar to that DJ Moore year, the one year with Justin Fields.

Yeah, but I think that offense is at least going to have good time of possession control on average, and they'll be able to lean on that rushing attack and defense a lot more.

I do think the rushing ability of Justin Fields opens up the game a little bit more for Breece hall, and I've read some things about him being overrated, but I'm buying into his talent and where he was being drafted last year.

And I like taking him this year, even though he's got Braylon Allen sitting, you know, right there behind him, who's now 21.

He just turned 21, believe it or not.

But I, I still like Breeze Hall.

I do, too.

I think this one is fun for fantasy because it's very clear.

You know, we'll talk about some rooms that we can't identify who's the number one option, but here it is Breeze Hall.

It is Garrett Wilson.

And if you want to take a shot on Justin Fields, it's those three and get out.

Well, wait a second.

They brought in a new rookie tight end.

We've got a new tight end who is going to be clearly the number one tight end with Mason Taylor.

That's true.

They let Conklin go.

They brought in Mason Taylor.

I just.

I think Mason Taylor will get them some first downs.

I don't think he's going to be someone that you can start this year.

All right.

I think he helps the offense.

I am pretty bullish on Justin Fields.

Just given that rushing baseline.

I think they're going to be able to lean on that run.

I really liked some of their picks on the offensive line.

They brought in a couple rookies, both for their right tackle with Armand Membo.

They also have.

Yeah, Basin Taylor is pretty good blocker for a rookie.

We'll see if that translates to the NFL.

And then the real question is Tanner Engstrom, the passing coordinator that's now their offensive coordinator.

So the passing coordinator at Detroit, what does he bring from Detroit and what did he learn from Ben Johnson?

So first time play callers, I feel like can have some difficulty and some growing pains.

So he's kind of the big wild card.

He is the big wild card.

One of the things that Detroit did really well was building the team around Jared Goff when they brought him in.

And I feel like that they're probably going to bring in that same mentality and try to build this team to make Justin Fields successful.

And if that's the case, then we will see this team win a lot more games.

The.

Yeah, I, I agree.

And like we were talking, I'm Also on above 5 and a half wins because I think you have a lot more serious head coaching and that whole coaching staff.

And then Justin Fields also raises your floor.

We saw that he was able to win some games with Pittsburgh with a good defense, with a good rushing game.

So I think it is going to work.

I don't know if this is a playoff team, but I think it's going to be a respectable team.

Yeah, they won't.

We won't be laughing like last year and wondering what the drama is coming out of the Jets.

Yeah.

All right, that's it.

I think we all agree Bills win this division.

Yeah, not too many surprises.

I think Buffalo at the top.

How are you going to order the rest of them?

I'll go Bills, Patriots, Jets, Dolphins.

Yeah, I am going to take that exact order.

I think that is the betting order.

Actually.

No.

The jets are supposed to come in fourth, but I think it's the writings on the wall that it.

It might implode in Miami.

I think so too.

So I think the jets are.

Their baseline is a lot higher than what Miami's bottom outcome is.

So yeah, we are aligned with Bills, Pats, Jets, Miami.

All right, well that's going to do it for the AFC East.

Hit the subscribe button, leave us a comment, let us know what you're thinking.

Who do you like in the AFC East?

Who are you picking?

What order are the teams finishing in this division?

Don't forget we've also got the ladies fantasy football leagues forming at Fangirl Football.

And check those out, ladies, if you're looking for a fantasy league to join.

And up next we're going to have the AFC north where we're going to get to take an interesting look at the Steelers.

In the meantime, everyone enjoy their training camp highlights and believing that Quinn Johnson is the next wide receiver?

One, but.

All right.

See everyone here soon.