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Jacob Shapiro: Hello listeners.

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Welcome to another episode
of Geopolitical Cousins.

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Marco and I are back at it.

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Uh, if you are looking for the
geopolitical power draft, that is gonna

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happen in the backend of the podcast.

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We spend the first 40, 45 minutes or
so talking about some things happening

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in the world, the Middle East,
India, Pakistan, Russia, Ukraine, uh,

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and then in the latter half of the
podcast we do a geopolitical draft.

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We're picking the most powerful countries
in the world over the next 30 years.

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We need your input.

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We didn't finish the draft.

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We're probably gonna have, we'll complete
the draft and have some, uh, some feedback

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on it and argue about different placements
and things like that in the next one.

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So, um, if you have any questions,
comments, concerns, you can email

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me at jacob@jacobshapiro.com.

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For now, we need to get a, an
email address just for the podcast

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itself, but in the meantime, if you
send an email there, it will get

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to both me and Marco, I promise.

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Um, otherwise.

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Uh, hope you are all
staying well out there.

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Enjoy cousins.

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We'll see you soon.

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Alright, cousin, before we start, um, I
think we have to start with the travesty

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that is geopolitical analysts being forced
to fly commercial in this day and age.

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I think when we look back 50, 70 years
from now, it would be like NBA players,

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you know, today they wouldn't fly
commercial at all, but you know, they used

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to have to go on buses and things like
that, all of which is a wind up to say why

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has the nation of gutter not provided an
airplane for you and I to fly around the

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world and give our geopolitical briefings?

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I mean, like, I think we're
just as important as President

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Trump, don't you think?

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Marko: I would, I would, I would say in
many ways, perhaps we're more important.

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I mean, first of all, we both, uh,
pride ourselves in our objectivity.

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I am a nihilist, bathed in aloof
indifference and therefore if you want

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me to say nice things about you, you
should provide me with a plane as well.

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Although I guess that would like.

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Take away that aloof indifference.

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Jacob Shapiro: Yeah.

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You see, I'm the opposite side of this.

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Like I'm a, I'm like a true Socratic
student here, which is I will

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continue to say bad things about you.

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And because I say these bad things
about you, I deserve all of the things

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that you're supposed to give me.

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So you Cutter should give me this plane
because I will be a truth teller and

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tell you about how you're just a random,

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Marko: what's just another plane.

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Come on.

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You know, like you have, by the
way, uh, no country in the world has

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more oversupply than Qatar, and I
say that, uh, because they've built

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too many stadiums, too many office
buildings, too much of l and g supply.

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There's literally too much of everything.

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So just give us an office building
and an airplane, and I think

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that, you know, we'll, we'll
bring the demand to the region.

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There you go.

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Yeah, exactly.

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By the way, can I, can
I go off for a second?

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Can I go off?

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Please

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Jacob Shapiro: go.

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Yeah, yeah, yeah.

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So that's why we have a podcast.

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Marko: That's right.

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Yeah.

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I'll link this whole hand wringing
over, uh, the United States

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of America accepting a gift.

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Like, first and foremost,
let's be very clear.

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Is it a gift to President Trump?

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I mean, no, it's not, it's
not his personal plane.

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It's a gift to America.

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Well,

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Jacob Shapiro: it, it
will be in four years.

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His personal plane.

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Marko: Will it?

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Jacob Shapiro: Yeah.

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It, it reverts to the Trump
Foundation after Trump leaves office.

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Marko: Oh, okay.

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Well, I was about to go off and
now I have nothing to, okay.

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Yeah.

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And,

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Jacob Shapiro: and prob probably the,
probably the Trump Presidential Library

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will be built in Doha for all I know.

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It seems like a good place to put Zens.

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No,

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Marko: listen, uh, I mean, I agree.

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I agree.

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We are.

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The hay rigging is appropriate.

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Okay.

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Jacob Shapiro: I don't know.

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I, I I think it's still,
uh, not inappropriate.

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I mean, it, it's, um, yeah, I'm,
I'm just double checking myself,

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but what were you going to say?

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Marko: Well, I mean, I was gonna
say like, you know, countries do

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accept gifts from other countries,
and it's perfectly appropriate.

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I mean, it can be a favor, it
can be a diplomatic favor, it

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can be a, a, a material gift.

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It's, it's not inappropriate for
a country to try to curry favor

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with another one with a gift.

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That's perfectly fine.

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Uh, the United States of America has
donated billions, hundreds of billions

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of dollars worth of weapons to its allies
around the world through either vendor

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financing or simply through grants.

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Um, you know, there was like a
helicopter, uh, gift to the Philippines,

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so they wouldn't buy, I think
Russian ones like this does happen.

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So, uh, but if it's gonna
revert to a President Trump's

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personal plane, then hmm.

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More difficult to defend.

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Jacob Shapiro: Yeah.

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So, so I, I, I'm glad
I double check myself.

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So, a, b, C News, this is the original
report and, you know, a, b, c News,

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who knows May, and they're, they're
citing sources who have, uh, you

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know, a window into the agreement.

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But so the idea is that Trump, the Trump
administration will accept the Boeing 7

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47 jumbo jet, which can be used in media
as Air Force One until shortly before he

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leaves office, at which time ownership
of the plane will be transferred to the

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Trump Presidential Library Foundation.

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Sources familiar with the proposed
arrangement, told a, b, c news.

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Um, but I, I was gonna double down here.

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Like I, I'm, um, 'cause even, like even
my, uh, my evil nemes twin nemesis, Ben

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Shapiro was out there being like, okay,
president Trump, like this is not okay.

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And I don't get the pearl clutching
like, okay, so grab him by the pussy.

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Didn't matter to you.

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And January 6th didn't matter to you.

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And all of the odious and
gross and corrupt things

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that happen in all politics.

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I think Trump is just a little
more open about it than most.

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But like all the gross things
that happen, this is the one.

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This is the one where, oh my God,
like this is absolutely unacceptable

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that you're accepting this plane
to be used for a couple of years.

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Yeah, and Trump knows it.

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Like he has the measure of his
base because his base is gonna look

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at this and be like, he's a boss.

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He got the Middle Eastern guys
to give him a fucking plane.

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That's awesome.

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I also wanna play, and that was my initial
reaction too, while the Democrats are

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like, aha, proof that he's truly evil,
this will be the thing that convinces

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the US electorate that he's really bad.

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Like my God guys.

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Come on.

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Well,

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Marko: you know, first of all, I think
we just have to get you and Ben on

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the show and call it the Shapiros.

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That's it.

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That's like, that's like,
why are you here with me?

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I'm, I'm, I'm a nobody.

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You should be with Ben,
first and foremost.

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That would be amazing.

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Second of all, I think what's interesting
about this is that it reveals a level

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of discrimination, and quite frankly,
not like racism, but Islamophobia.

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So it's basically okay if there's
graft, but if it comes from Qatar,

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which you know, like supposedly supports
terrorism, which it really doesn't.

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I mean, it's offered a forum for
negotiations and for peace for a number

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of different, uh, you know, parties.

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It doesn't like, and by the way,
who does the finance terrorism?

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Come on.

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Give him a break.

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But when it's cut, they're
giving you a plane.

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Yeah, but

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Jacob Shapiro: like the head, they
have the headquarters of Hama.

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I mean, you know, it's a little,

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Marko: you know,

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Jacob Shapiro: like, I, I get you,
but on the spec, like it's a spectrum.

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Okay.

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It, it's a spectrum, but they're a
little more, they're a little more on

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the terrorism spectrum than others.

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See, I, I just lost my plane privileges.

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Marko: You, you definitely lost
your plane, but please note Doha.

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I still keep my plain privileges.

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Look, here's the point though.

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Like, I think what, what
differentiates this from like, uh,

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the crypto coins or everything else?

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I think what differentiate is
differentiates it is that in the mind

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of many Indian American public, it
comes from a Middle Eastern country.

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Uh, that's on the spectrum
of supporting or hosting.

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Some odious actors and I think that that's
kind of, uh, interesting to me that that

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was what triggered the, uh, criticism
from both the left and the right.

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Jacob Shapiro: Yeah.

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I mean, you know, also CENTCOM is like
based in gutter, so it's like, uh, like

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the US military is also there, there too.

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Everybody's there together.

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Um, well we could go on for a long time
here, but I think this is a good way

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maybe to back in Marco jokes aside to
some serious stuff to talk about before

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we get into the main reason people are
here, which is another geopolitical draft.

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Um, and I think there's a couple ways
to skin this cat, but you know, I

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think we were prescient to talk about
the Middle East and the last podcast

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and there has been some development
there, um, in the past couple of days.

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Uh, prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu
from Israel, basically saying that

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Israel is willing to go alone to defend
itself after the US Houthis deal.

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Um.

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Sources suggesting from the White
House that President Trump is

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frustrated with Netanyahu, like,
insert Biden into that sentence.

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And it could have been exactly the same.

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Um, and there's also, I, I've been very
struck by, you know, the Trump visit and

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this huge visit to Saudi Arabia where
you just were like, Sam Altman is there.

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And, um, CEO of Nvidia is there.

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The United States, um, just yesterday
announced that it was getting

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rid of some export controls on AI
chips and imposing completely new

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restrictions on Huawei's AI chips.

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You've got people telling local
media aha, while investors are gonna

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have to choose between a Chinese
led AI world and a US AI led world.

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And I was also just struck, like I
saw a picture of Trump standing with

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all these world leaders and then all
these Saudi shakes and all of these

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like tech bros and things like that.

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And I'm like.

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There is such cognitive dissonance for me
because like who in geopolitics could have

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predicted in the year of our Lord 2025,
that the most powerful people in the world

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would gather in the middle of the Arabian
desert and pay homage to the Saudi Arabian

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King in order to make the decisions that
will decide the future of technology and

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AI and all these other different things.

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Like it doesn't, like something does
not compute there, seeing like the

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CEO of Nvidia, like, and Sam Altman
like trying to like ingratiate

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themselves to Prince Mohammad bin
Salman and Trump standing next to him.

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Like all that was missing was Toby
Keith, uh, may he rest in peace coming

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back to like do a, a another con
concert from the Dead for the audience.

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So take that whatever direction you want.

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But I, I have some dissonance
this morning about all this.

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Marko: So first of all, I just
wanna say that that was a really

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prescient, uh, podcast that
you and I did together, right?

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So like, first of all, I think
you called the American Pope.

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I think that was the same one right?

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Jacob Shapiro: That was,
that was the previous one.

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So we're on a roll.

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Oh, my roll.

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We're like two, two.

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Oh, my bad.

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We're good.

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Yeah.

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Marko: Okay, cool.

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So you called, uh, the Ameri, uh,
the American Pope, which was awesome.

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This is why you should be
listening to this podcast.

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I mean, like, who else would've done that?

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And then the second thing is that in the
other broadcast, uh, episode we talked

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about like, Bibi is playing with fire.

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Donald Trump is not pro-ISIS Israel.

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And what's beautiful about that statement
is that I made everybody mad right now.

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Right?

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If you're on the right, you're
like, no, he is, you know, he

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00:10:28,395 --> 00:10:30,435
moved the capital to Jerusalem.

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00:10:30,435 --> 00:10:32,985
I'm like, eh, like
nobody cares about that.

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00:10:32,985 --> 00:10:33,495
Guys.

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00:10:33,555 --> 00:10:36,495
Like, uh, people who care
about that don't matter.

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00:10:36,675 --> 00:10:38,685
Lemme just put it that way on both sides.

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Sorry.

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00:10:39,825 --> 00:10:42,255
And then the second thing is like,
obviously if you're on the left and

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00:10:42,255 --> 00:10:43,785
liberal, you're like, of course he does.

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00:10:43,785 --> 00:10:45,735
He let Israel do whatever they want.

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00:10:45,735 --> 00:10:48,435
And the truth is that Donald
Trump is pro Donald Trump.

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I think if you support Donald Trump
and you give him a lot of benefit of

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00:10:51,885 --> 00:10:55,755
the doubt he's pro-America, if you
are a little bit more nihilist than

250
00:10:55,755 --> 00:10:58,215
maybe objective, you're just saying
like, look, he's pro Donald Trump.

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And the problem with Benjamin Netanyahu is
that his domestic constraints are forcing

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him to be extremely aggressive against
Palestinians, whether in GA and West Bank.

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And Donald Trump wants
peace and equilibrium.

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And so, yeah, like this is what
we talked about last podcast.

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I really don't have
anything to add to that.

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00:11:16,305 --> 00:11:23,295
Bibi is playing with fire if he thinks
that, you know, uh, the Israel lobby

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00:11:23,295 --> 00:11:24,465
in the United States of America.

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00:11:25,185 --> 00:11:31,095
If he thinks that his relationship with
Trump, if he thinks that some idiotic

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00:11:31,095 --> 00:11:35,985
notion of American long-term strategic
interests in backing Israel are going to

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00:11:35,985 --> 00:11:40,485
save him and his relationship with the
United States, he is absolutely wrong.

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And this could go sideways, very badly
for Israel over the next 12 months.

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00:11:45,855 --> 00:11:47,080
Uh, so that's the first thing I think.

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I mean, you don't wanna, you wanna pick
a fight with the US president, like

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whoever you are, it's just, it's not
something you want to do, but especially

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00:11:55,695 --> 00:11:58,695
if you're a country of 10 million,
you know, like why would you do that?

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00:11:59,685 --> 00:12:00,015
Jacob Shapiro: Yeah.

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00:12:00,015 --> 00:12:03,195
I I, before we move on to the Saudi Arabia
stuff, 'cause I really do want to get your

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00:12:03,195 --> 00:12:05,625
take on that, 'cause you've been there
and, and you've been ahead of this on

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00:12:05,625 --> 00:12:06,885
me and have a different view than I do.

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Um, I think you're right about, um,
Netanyahu and I, I wanna make two points.

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The first is that I think Netanyahu was
guilty of what a lot of foreign leaders

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00:12:14,385 --> 00:12:17,805
are, and even some policy makers in
the United States, which is thinking

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of President Trump as a useful idiot.

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And I think he's many things, but
he's not gonna be your monkey.

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You're not gonna pull the strings.

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And I think it was in Trump's interest
in the first term, and you also

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00:12:27,465 --> 00:12:30,615
had Kushner very deeply inside the
administration to where, and you know,

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Trump had made promises about Iran.

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Israel was gonna be a partner
there, like Israel was useful to

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00:12:35,085 --> 00:12:37,785
him and that was all useful to
his base and he pushed it forward.

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And I think I. My hunch is that
Netanyahu thought, oh, I have

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this good standing relationship.

283
00:12:42,735 --> 00:12:44,025
I'm just gonna say nice things.

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I'm gonna be the one that's in his corner.

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You might remember Israel was like
one of the first countries to say

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00:12:48,345 --> 00:12:49,695
zero tariffs, like, we're good.

287
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Like please no tariffs.

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00:12:50,835 --> 00:12:54,015
And then the Israelis were shocked
when they were on the penguin tariff

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00:12:54,015 --> 00:12:56,295
list because they thought that
they had headed it off at the past.

290
00:12:56,625 --> 00:12:59,715
Um, so to your point, like President
Trump cares for better and for worse

291
00:12:59,715 --> 00:13:02,895
about President Trump, and so he will
do whatever is in his interest and

292
00:13:02,895 --> 00:13:05,505
he's not a moron as much as people
may want to think he's a moron.

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00:13:05,535 --> 00:13:08,115
Howard Lutnick, I think the discussion
about whether he's a moron is

294
00:13:08,115 --> 00:13:09,465
actually a much more pertinent one.

295
00:13:09,705 --> 00:13:13,335
The second thing though, and I, and I want
to tie this in before you take, take it.

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00:13:13,890 --> 00:13:17,160
Before we get to Saudi Arabia, says,
I wonder if there's a little bit of a

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00:13:17,160 --> 00:13:21,270
metaphor here also on what's happened
with India and Pakistan because

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the last time we spoke, India and
Pakistan were going back and forth.

299
00:13:24,000 --> 00:13:25,110
Things were ratcheting up.

300
00:13:25,110 --> 00:13:27,120
You and I were both getting
questions on Twitter.

301
00:13:27,120 --> 00:13:27,540
Thank you.

302
00:13:27,600 --> 00:13:28,470
Or X or whatever.

303
00:13:28,470 --> 00:13:29,700
Thank everyone for asking you.

304
00:13:29,700 --> 00:13:31,890
What do you guys think about this
as an investment perspective?

305
00:13:31,890 --> 00:13:34,710
Is it World War II or things spiraling
outta control and then we have a

306
00:13:34,710 --> 00:13:38,910
ceasefire, but we have the United
States and President Trump in particular

307
00:13:38,910 --> 00:13:43,710
claiming credit for the ceasefire and
not really taking a Proin Indian stance.

308
00:13:43,915 --> 00:13:44,515
Like Narendra.

309
00:13:44,515 --> 00:13:47,485
Modi's not happy about the way
that the US has intervened here.

310
00:13:47,485 --> 00:13:50,905
He didn't even say that the US had
done anything as part of the ceasefire

311
00:13:50,905 --> 00:13:52,555
in his official comments yesterday.

312
00:13:52,795 --> 00:13:55,945
And it, it was a lot of, what about
is like, Trump's quote was basically

313
00:13:55,945 --> 00:13:59,245
like, stop trading bombs, trade the nice
things that you make with each other.

314
00:13:59,245 --> 00:14:00,565
Can't you guys get along?

315
00:14:00,595 --> 00:14:04,255
Rather than being like, no, India has a
right to defend itself against terrorism.

316
00:14:04,255 --> 00:14:06,205
India is the rightful holder of Kashmir.

317
00:14:06,205 --> 00:14:08,275
India is all the things
that India wants to be.

318
00:14:08,635 --> 00:14:11,725
So I wonder like, you know, we can talk
about Israel until we're blue in the face.

319
00:14:11,725 --> 00:14:13,825
It's honestly not that
geopolitically important in the end.

320
00:14:14,155 --> 00:14:17,755
But I think the same thing just happened
with India, which is India and Ra.

321
00:14:17,935 --> 00:14:22,015
Modi thought, Hey, Trump is in our corner,
so if we have to go after Pakistan or

322
00:14:22,015 --> 00:14:24,535
Kashmir these other things, they're
gonna support us a hundred percent.

323
00:14:24,535 --> 00:14:28,345
JD Vance was just here, probably told
us something like that, and yet you get

324
00:14:28,345 --> 00:14:31,585
this little breakout of war and Trump
is like, please stop bombing each other.

325
00:14:31,585 --> 00:14:32,755
I don't want any of this.

326
00:14:32,755 --> 00:14:33,715
I'm not gonna support you.

327
00:14:33,715 --> 00:14:35,695
I just want you guys to stop
bombing each other and I wanna take

328
00:14:35,695 --> 00:14:38,575
credit for it 'cause I'm building
my resume for a Nobel Peace Prize.

329
00:14:38,605 --> 00:14:38,785
Okay.

330
00:14:38,785 --> 00:14:39,565
Sorry, you go.

331
00:14:41,400 --> 00:14:43,170
Marko: I have nothing
to add to what you said.

332
00:14:43,530 --> 00:14:47,745
I think that, uh, this goes back to the
argument we had, not argument, but the,

333
00:14:48,510 --> 00:14:54,270
the point I made in the last, uh, episode
where I said that, you know, you can,

334
00:14:54,270 --> 00:15:01,770
you can compare American geopolitical
benevolence influence, uh, to QE to

335
00:15:01,770 --> 00:15:06,330
just want the liquidity in the markets,
which creates distortions and libria.

336
00:15:06,900 --> 00:15:10,710
And the United States of America
is withdrawing that benevolence.

337
00:15:10,800 --> 00:15:12,030
It's changing its outlook.

338
00:15:12,480 --> 00:15:16,650
It's acting like the most powerful
country in a world, in a multipolar world.

339
00:15:17,280 --> 00:15:20,160
It's not acting as a provider
of hegemonic stability.

340
00:15:21,000 --> 00:15:24,510
Um, and President Trump said something
yesterday that quite frankly is the

341
00:15:24,510 --> 00:15:29,220
most profound statement by any American
legislator legislature on foreign

342
00:15:29,220 --> 00:15:35,910
policy, maybe this entire century,
if not even since World War ii.

343
00:15:36,750 --> 00:15:37,230
Um.

344
00:15:38,084 --> 00:15:41,444
Hillary Clinton famously said,
America doesn't recognize fears

345
00:15:41,444 --> 00:15:44,444
of influence, which as I joke,
is like a ridiculous statement.

346
00:15:44,444 --> 00:15:45,345
It's like, okay, cool.

347
00:15:45,675 --> 00:15:47,385
Um, what does that mean?

348
00:15:47,564 --> 00:15:47,954
You know?

349
00:15:48,495 --> 00:15:51,405
But what President Trump said is
the diametrically opposite of that,

350
00:15:51,824 --> 00:15:57,015
which is, and I'm gonna quote it, is,
it is God's job to sit in judgment.

351
00:15:57,944 --> 00:15:59,985
It is my job to defend America.

352
00:16:01,215 --> 00:16:05,355
I will never hesitate to wield American
power to defend the United States.

353
00:16:05,865 --> 00:16:11,204
But the point is that it's actually
a really like profound statement.

354
00:16:12,285 --> 00:16:16,125
Uh, the US is not going to judge.

355
00:16:16,635 --> 00:16:20,685
It's not going to be making
moralistic, normative, moralistic,

356
00:16:20,685 --> 00:16:22,935
or normative calls or claims.

357
00:16:23,085 --> 00:16:25,905
It's not gonna pursue a moralistic
or normative foreign policy.

358
00:16:26,385 --> 00:16:28,185
It's going to focus on
the American interests.

359
00:16:28,980 --> 00:16:32,610
And I think that in a way that
is far easier for the rest of the

360
00:16:32,610 --> 00:16:35,970
world to deal with because it's
cleaner, it's more objective, and it

361
00:16:35,970 --> 00:16:37,680
doesn't change with who's in charge.

362
00:16:38,310 --> 00:16:41,520
You know, presumably, unless of
course somebody replaces President

363
00:16:41,520 --> 00:16:43,920
Trump who says, no, no, no,
actually we will sit in judgment.

364
00:16:44,640 --> 00:16:47,580
Um, so I thought that was very important
in dovetail with everything you're saying.

365
00:16:47,580 --> 00:16:49,590
I mean, that is the
change that's happened.

366
00:16:50,130 --> 00:16:56,070
And so that's why President Trump
is open to making deals and being

367
00:16:56,070 --> 00:16:57,960
a peacemaker in an objective way.

368
00:16:58,320 --> 00:16:58,830
In a way.

369
00:16:59,610 --> 00:17:01,500
Um, so it's going to rankle.

370
00:17:01,560 --> 00:17:06,030
It's going to rankle and it's going to
frustrate a lot of countries that thoughts

371
00:17:06,030 --> 00:17:09,510
that they were morally superior, that
they were on the right side of history,

372
00:17:09,930 --> 00:17:14,069
that they were, uh, fighting with America
against evil and tyranny around the world.

373
00:17:14,069 --> 00:17:15,900
You know, that's who's gonna rankle.

374
00:17:16,020 --> 00:17:18,420
But I think from a just purely.

375
00:17:19,230 --> 00:17:20,909
Objective perspective.

376
00:17:20,970 --> 00:17:25,679
It's also going to make it easier for
the US to actually act as a peacemaker

377
00:17:25,679 --> 00:17:27,629
and create libria around the world.

378
00:17:27,720 --> 00:17:30,990
Not a popular take, especially
with a lot of our listeners who

379
00:17:30,990 --> 00:17:32,850
lean more progressive and liberal.

380
00:17:33,149 --> 00:17:36,344
But in a multipolar world, I think
it's very dangerous for the United

381
00:17:36,344 --> 00:17:41,340
States to pursue normative judgment
calls because it doesn't have the

382
00:17:41,340 --> 00:17:45,899
wanton power to effectively prosecute.

383
00:17:46,334 --> 00:17:47,324
Moral judgment.

384
00:17:49,334 --> 00:17:53,324
Jacob Shapiro: Yeah, I, um, I, you,
I wanna say that you're right about

385
00:17:53,324 --> 00:17:56,895
the macro, but wrong about the micro
here, but, so this was something else

386
00:17:56,895 --> 00:18:00,705
I wanted to juxtapose the, the, the
meetings in Saudi Arabia and all these

387
00:18:00,705 --> 00:18:03,495
pictures that have been creating this
dissonance for me at the same time

388
00:18:03,495 --> 00:18:04,754
and much less covered, but covered.

389
00:18:04,754 --> 00:18:06,675
I'm not, I don't wanna say
that nobody is covering this.

390
00:18:07,125 --> 00:18:09,705
Um, the, um, the Clac summit.

391
00:18:09,705 --> 00:18:11,715
So the community of Latin
American, Caribbean states is

392
00:18:11,715 --> 00:18:13,665
happening in China right now.

393
00:18:13,995 --> 00:18:14,685
And, um.

394
00:18:14,845 --> 00:18:17,754
One of the things that Chinese
President Xi Jinping said in his

395
00:18:17,754 --> 00:18:20,304
opening address to the Clac Summit
was China's and the countries of

396
00:18:20,304 --> 00:18:23,274
Latin America and the Caribbean are
important members of the global South.

397
00:18:23,485 --> 00:18:25,554
Independence is our glorious tradition.

398
00:18:25,585 --> 00:18:29,095
Development and revitalization,
our natural right and fairness

399
00:18:29,095 --> 00:18:30,955
and justice are common pursuit.

400
00:18:31,465 --> 00:18:34,810
And as part of that, president
Xi has opened up a new $66

401
00:18:34,810 --> 00:18:36,835
billion Yuan credit line.

402
00:18:36,835 --> 00:18:38,964
That's about $9 billion.

403
00:18:39,070 --> 00:18:42,325
Has talked about all the different sources
of funding that he wants to do there.

404
00:18:42,595 --> 00:18:47,125
Uh, president Lula from Brazil
had some very strong things to say

405
00:18:47,125 --> 00:18:50,304
about President Trump, basically
lashing out at everybody else on

406
00:18:50,304 --> 00:18:52,825
planet Earth that China is the one.

407
00:18:53,380 --> 00:18:56,620
That has been treated like an enemy,
except it's the one that is quote,

408
00:18:56,620 --> 00:19:00,220
behaving like an example of a country that
is trying to do business with countries

409
00:19:00,220 --> 00:19:02,110
which have been forgotten by others.

410
00:19:02,200 --> 00:19:02,800
End quote.

411
00:19:02,800 --> 00:19:04,840
So like more shots fired
at the United States.

412
00:19:04,990 --> 00:19:09,220
So while you have Trump and scent and
the Nvidia CEO and all, and you know,

413
00:19:09,250 --> 00:19:12,820
Mohammad bin Salman sitting there
in, in Saudi Arabia and announcing

414
00:19:12,820 --> 00:19:16,390
all these investments and plans and
multipolarity and great deep things,

415
00:19:16,810 --> 00:19:20,920
you ironically have Xi Jinping taking
up the mantle of, I won't call it

416
00:19:20,920 --> 00:19:25,510
liberalism, but using some of the
vocabulary of lib liberalism, using China

417
00:19:25,510 --> 00:19:27,310
to say, we will be the force for good.

418
00:19:27,340 --> 00:19:30,010
We will be the force for
development for a better future.

419
00:19:30,010 --> 00:19:33,790
And by the way, all these countries
that are in America's backyard that

420
00:19:33,790 --> 00:19:37,390
America has ignored, they're off
gallivanting around the Arabian desert.

421
00:19:37,630 --> 00:19:40,360
Uh, you, Brazil, you Chile, you Columbia.

422
00:19:40,800 --> 00:19:44,670
Come to China, take our yuan
credit, swap lines, trade with us.

423
00:19:44,670 --> 00:19:46,410
We're interested in closer relations.

424
00:19:46,415 --> 00:19:48,630
The, the juxtaposition
couldn't be sharper to me.

425
00:19:48,720 --> 00:19:48,930
Marko: Yeah.

426
00:19:48,930 --> 00:19:54,240
But I, I don't think that you're correct
in that it's a moral normative play.

427
00:19:54,390 --> 00:19:57,780
It's merely saying like, we will help
you with your economic development.

428
00:19:57,780 --> 00:20:02,790
So in other words, president Xi invited
Latin American leaders to basically

429
00:20:02,790 --> 00:20:06,330
make the same pitch as President Trump
is making in the Middle East, which

430
00:20:06,330 --> 00:20:12,330
is that look work with us and we will
bring economic development to you.

431
00:20:12,330 --> 00:20:17,220
We're not gonna bring normative,
moralistic, you know, policies.

432
00:20:17,280 --> 00:20:20,040
We're not going to give you a lecture.

433
00:20:20,520 --> 00:20:21,900
We will give you a loan.

434
00:20:22,320 --> 00:20:26,400
And I think that that's, so it kind
of dovetails with what I'm saying.

435
00:20:26,430 --> 00:20:30,000
I think it's, China's always done what
you just described, I think over the

436
00:20:30,000 --> 00:20:35,910
past 20 years at least, uh, with a
belt and road initiative with, um, I.

437
00:20:35,910 --> 00:20:37,425
Rebuilding supply chains around the world.

438
00:20:37,695 --> 00:20:41,445
I think it's the US that's catching
up to Chinese foreign policy.

439
00:20:41,865 --> 00:20:45,615
In other words, both sides are
kind of pursuing the same thing.

440
00:20:45,615 --> 00:20:46,875
By the way, I apologize for my dog.

441
00:20:46,875 --> 00:20:49,514
I dunno what's going on, but
you know, hopefully he's not

442
00:20:49,514 --> 00:20:50,535
gonna tear someone apart.

443
00:20:50,540 --> 00:20:50,660
I'm,

444
00:20:51,405 --> 00:20:53,745
Jacob Shapiro: I'm sure he's keeping
you safe and I'm, I'm so glad

445
00:20:53,745 --> 00:20:56,295
to have a real disagreement with
you because I think you're wrong.

446
00:20:56,595 --> 00:20:58,605
Um, I think that, um.

447
00:20:59,040 --> 00:21:02,909
China is, is not saying what you're
saying, which is, yes, it's about economic

448
00:21:02,909 --> 00:21:07,080
development, but it's economic economic
development that is driven by openness.

449
00:21:07,290 --> 00:21:11,669
They are making a normative claim that
the way to growth is no trade barriers.

450
00:21:11,729 --> 00:21:15,659
The way to growth is China needs to be
able to import commodities from Latin

451
00:21:15,659 --> 00:21:18,030
America for as cheaply as possible.

452
00:21:18,030 --> 00:21:20,310
And in return you get access
to the Chinese market.

453
00:21:20,310 --> 00:21:24,840
And if you raise protections against
these commodities, if you raise tariffs

454
00:21:24,840 --> 00:21:28,439
because the United States told you
to do so, if you say bad things about

455
00:21:28,439 --> 00:21:32,189
China, or if you embrace Taiwan, uh,
you know, some of these countries, the

456
00:21:32,189 --> 00:21:35,520
countries that are remaining in the world
that still recognize Taiwan over the

457
00:21:35,520 --> 00:21:39,239
United States, most of them in, uh, uh,
Latin America, really Central America.

458
00:21:39,239 --> 00:21:41,340
And those have been sort
of falling by the wayside.

459
00:21:41,580 --> 00:21:45,389
So Xi Jinping is, he's saying, no,
we are the country of openness.

460
00:21:45,419 --> 00:21:46,770
We want free trade.

461
00:21:46,770 --> 00:21:49,560
We want everything to go
together, and we have these needs.

462
00:21:49,560 --> 00:21:52,469
And if you get these needs, like you'll
get access to the Chinese market, you'll,

463
00:21:52,530 --> 00:21:53,879
you'll get your things going forward.

464
00:21:53,939 --> 00:21:55,889
And, and as for Trump, like, um.

465
00:21:57,105 --> 00:22:01,185
I don't know, like you're saying, like,
I, I hear you in, in, in trying to make

466
00:22:01,185 --> 00:22:04,784
something out of that speech, and I, I
saw, I saw that speech making the rounds

467
00:22:05,084 --> 00:22:08,445
and about defending, um, the United
States, but it's a particular view of

468
00:22:08,445 --> 00:22:11,685
the United States, and it's about closing
the United States off to some countries.

469
00:22:11,685 --> 00:22:14,475
I mean, he's picking a battle
with China in the long term.

470
00:22:14,475 --> 00:22:17,564
There's something normative about picking
China as this adversary, although of

471
00:22:17,564 --> 00:22:19,064
course tariffs have gone away now.

472
00:22:19,064 --> 00:22:20,534
So he's like sort of capitulated.

473
00:22:20,955 --> 00:22:23,625
I don't know, but I, I, the, the only
thing I'm trying to say is I think

474
00:22:23,625 --> 00:22:26,985
there is something normative about
China being the force for openness,

475
00:22:27,014 --> 00:22:30,915
trade openness, and the United States
saying, no, it's a protectionist world.

476
00:22:31,125 --> 00:22:32,504
There are spheres of influence.

477
00:22:32,504 --> 00:22:35,264
If you, if you, if we don't like
you, you don't get our ships.

478
00:22:35,264 --> 00:22:38,294
And if you're a company that does bad
things, like we're gonna sanction you.

479
00:22:38,294 --> 00:22:39,824
Whereas China doesn't want any of that.

480
00:22:39,885 --> 00:22:40,905
But I think push back if you want.

481
00:22:41,310 --> 00:22:43,695
Marko: No, I, I mean, I would just
say I think we need to wait like six,

482
00:22:43,695 --> 00:22:48,764
12 months to see where, uh, you know,
the trade conflict settles, right?

483
00:22:49,064 --> 00:22:53,475
Because if it settles with America,
basically just getting some deals and

484
00:22:53,475 --> 00:22:55,514
ultimately trade continuing, I think then.

485
00:22:56,325 --> 00:23:00,135
We're at the same, you know,
nothing really changed.

486
00:23:00,375 --> 00:23:02,145
So I think we just need
to see where it settles.

487
00:23:02,595 --> 00:23:06,615
Uh, but yeah, no, it's, it's very
interesting and I think that, uh, uh,

488
00:23:06,615 --> 00:23:10,485
going back to your original point,
you know about, you know, your shock,

489
00:23:10,485 --> 00:23:13,575
that like Saudi Arabia is at the
epicenter of a lot of these things.

490
00:23:13,575 --> 00:23:18,465
What I would say is, so to, to take the
other side of that, you know, I've been

491
00:23:18,465 --> 00:23:20,085
going to Saudi Arabia for 10 years.

492
00:23:20,145 --> 00:23:22,305
Uh, I grew up part of my
life in the Middle East.

493
00:23:22,335 --> 00:23:26,325
And so, um, been on the ground
in Saudi Arabia since probably

494
00:23:26,325 --> 00:23:31,605
2014, uh, once a year except for
Covid and a subsequent couple of

495
00:23:31,605 --> 00:23:33,105
years when nobody really traveled.

496
00:23:33,105 --> 00:23:39,765
But, uh, no country has changed more
on the planet than Saudi Arabia.

497
00:23:39,825 --> 00:23:42,525
And I compare what's going on
there to the Maji restoration.

498
00:23:42,675 --> 00:23:44,415
Like that's how profound I think it is.

499
00:23:45,045 --> 00:23:49,185
Uh, I think Saudi Arabia has been beset
by a lot of, uh, existential risks

500
00:23:49,185 --> 00:23:51,165
over the last five years, 10 years.

501
00:23:51,165 --> 00:23:55,860
I. And, uh, I think that their
pivot is 180 degree turn.

502
00:23:56,639 --> 00:24:00,360
And the reason that they're able to do the
180 degree turn, and this is where I think

503
00:24:00,360 --> 00:24:05,010
Western analysts and just commentators,
I think what they don't realize is

504
00:24:05,010 --> 00:24:10,260
how, uh, you know, how absolutely
unnecessary, not, not unnecessary, but

505
00:24:11,280 --> 00:24:18,810
how arbitrary the conservative tilt
in Saudi Arabia was in 1979, Saudi

506
00:24:18,810 --> 00:24:20,730
Arabia had very low state capacity.

507
00:24:21,060 --> 00:24:22,230
What does state capacity mean?

508
00:24:22,230 --> 00:24:26,250
It like ability to, like collect
revenue, build an army, defend

509
00:24:26,250 --> 00:24:28,199
itself, pursue a foreign policy.

510
00:24:28,470 --> 00:24:32,580
In 1979, Saudi Arabia had
really no state capacity.

511
00:24:33,149 --> 00:24:37,620
Um, it had existed as a modern
state for like 15 years at

512
00:24:37,620 --> 00:24:38,790
that point, quite frankly.

513
00:24:39,659 --> 00:24:44,820
And so in 19 79, 2 things happened
that really threatened the

514
00:24:44,820 --> 00:24:46,379
very existence of this country.

515
00:24:46,379 --> 00:24:48,899
One was the Islamic Revolution
in neighboring Iran.

516
00:24:50,054 --> 00:24:52,605
It brought a dramatic shift to the region.

517
00:24:52,905 --> 00:24:59,054
And the other ones was the attack on the
Grand Mosque in 1979 in Riyadh, um, which

518
00:24:59,685 --> 00:25:02,084
Saudi Arabia couldn't resolve by itself.

519
00:25:02,084 --> 00:25:05,084
It had to bring in French
intelligence and French special

520
00:25:05,084 --> 00:25:07,004
forces to liberate the Grand Mosque.

521
00:25:07,695 --> 00:25:12,764
So these two things accelerated Saudi
Arabia stern towards conservatism.

522
00:25:13,635 --> 00:25:17,549
This idea that there's some sort of a
wahabi link with the origin of Saudi

523
00:25:17,549 --> 00:25:21,314
Arabia, that would be like saying
Americans have a link with Puritanism.

524
00:25:21,435 --> 00:25:22,034
You know what I mean?

525
00:25:22,034 --> 00:25:27,074
Like relax, like the alliance
between the wahabi in the bin South

526
00:25:27,074 --> 00:25:29,745
family is freaking 300 years old.

527
00:25:30,764 --> 00:25:34,695
What happened was in 1979, the
leadership in Saudi Arabia had to

528
00:25:34,695 --> 00:25:39,314
fight against like this global threat,
which suddenly shows up in Mecca.

529
00:25:39,855 --> 00:25:45,044
And so they make a decision, which
ultimately was a wrong one, uh, to,

530
00:25:45,074 --> 00:25:48,885
you know, effectively make a deal
with, uh, religious conservative.

531
00:25:49,514 --> 00:25:50,625
Part of society.

532
00:25:50,745 --> 00:25:57,585
Um, and, uh, they spend the next 30
years building state capacity thanks

533
00:25:57,585 --> 00:26:00,314
to massive oil wealth and material.

534
00:26:00,314 --> 00:26:02,475
Wealth is the foundation
of geopolitical power.

535
00:26:02,625 --> 00:26:04,935
And nowhere can you really see
that more than in Saudi Arabia.

536
00:26:04,935 --> 00:26:09,044
They become more competent in defending
their interests abroad and at home.

537
00:26:09,645 --> 00:26:12,855
And I think that the turn in Saudi
Arabia over the last five, uh,

538
00:26:13,034 --> 00:26:16,544
five, 10 years is really a product
of that buildup of state capacity.

539
00:26:16,725 --> 00:26:22,004
Saudi Arabia does not have to have
this alliance, uh, anymore with, uh,

540
00:26:22,004 --> 00:26:23,595
social and religious conservatives.

541
00:26:23,595 --> 00:26:26,264
And so it's discarded them massively.

542
00:26:26,625 --> 00:26:31,995
And I think that nobody understands
just how thorough this discarding is.

543
00:26:32,294 --> 00:26:36,465
And also I think most people don't
understand how arbitrary and non

544
00:26:36,465 --> 00:26:41,235
culturally correct or religiously correct
the alliance was in the first place.

545
00:26:41,835 --> 00:26:46,814
Uh, so yeah, I will, I will
say that Saudi Arabia by 2050.

546
00:26:47,550 --> 00:26:51,360
Will be more or as
liberal as Israel in 2050.

547
00:26:51,540 --> 00:26:55,080
There's my profound and uh,
controversial statement.

548
00:26:55,290 --> 00:27:01,350
I think this is an inexorable move and I
think that, um, it's the reason why Saudi

549
00:27:01,350 --> 00:27:03,149
Arabia has become a factor of stability.

550
00:27:03,149 --> 00:27:07,949
I mean, you've got Iranian and
Israeli cruise Miss cells flying over

551
00:27:07,949 --> 00:27:11,340
Saudi Arabia, and it hasn't impacted
the country at all economically

552
00:27:11,340 --> 00:27:12,419
from an investment perspective.

553
00:27:12,419 --> 00:27:16,530
I mean, what's impacting the country more
is price of oil as it always is, right?

554
00:27:17,310 --> 00:27:21,240
So this isn't, this isn't some argument
you should go and buy Saudi stocks.

555
00:27:21,959 --> 00:27:22,679
That's not what I'm saying.

556
00:27:22,679 --> 00:27:26,460
I. I'm just saying that you should
probably get on a plane and go to Saudi

557
00:27:26,460 --> 00:27:27,675
Arabia and see what I'm talking about.

558
00:27:28,095 --> 00:27:31,455
But even when people do that, the problem
is that if they don't have the frame of

559
00:27:31,455 --> 00:27:35,865
reference or if they haven't been visiting
Saudi Arabia, they don't have the data

560
00:27:35,865 --> 00:27:41,685
points in which to actually understand
just how profound, uh, the changes happen.

561
00:27:41,685 --> 00:27:41,715
I.

562
00:27:43,020 --> 00:27:45,120
Jacob Shapiro: Yeah, there's two different
things in, in what you're saying.

563
00:27:45,120 --> 00:27:47,550
And by the way, you might be right about
that controversial take with Israel.

564
00:27:47,580 --> 00:27:50,580
'cause Israel's rapidly moving
in a reactionary direction.

565
00:27:50,580 --> 00:27:53,820
So Saudi Arabia moves this way and
Israel moves the opposite direction they

566
00:27:53,820 --> 00:27:55,020
might meet in the middle of somewhere.

567
00:27:55,020 --> 00:27:55,260
Such is life.

568
00:27:56,310 --> 00:27:56,970
Such is life.

569
00:27:57,210 --> 00:28:00,060
But, um, you know, there's the point
on Saudi Arabia and then there's the

570
00:28:00,060 --> 00:28:03,270
larger point that even if you're right,
and I, I'm not sure, like I'll take the

571
00:28:03,270 --> 00:28:06,629
opposite side of that, like the idea
that they're gonna transform oil wealth

572
00:28:06,629 --> 00:28:09,270
into a glittering liberal democracy
in the heart of the Middle East, or

573
00:28:09,450 --> 00:28:12,689
glittering liberal constitutional
monarchy, whatever you wanna call it.

574
00:28:13,050 --> 00:28:16,439
I don't know, like, okay, Dutch disease is
no longer real then if they were able to

575
00:28:16,439 --> 00:28:19,889
take the oil wealth and change centuries
of entrenched interests and all these

576
00:28:19,889 --> 00:28:22,889
other things, I, I would take the other
side of it, but fine, leave that aside.

577
00:28:23,310 --> 00:28:27,060
Um, it still doesn't make sense to me
that the most powerful people in the

578
00:28:27,060 --> 00:28:31,110
world, or some of the most powerful
people in the world are going to, to

579
00:28:31,110 --> 00:28:33,030
Saudi Arabia to make these decisions.

580
00:28:33,030 --> 00:28:35,070
That this is the epicenter of
where things are happening.

581
00:28:35,070 --> 00:28:37,889
Because even if I grant
everything that you just said.

582
00:28:38,385 --> 00:28:41,625
How is the future of like AI and
things like that being announced

583
00:28:41,625 --> 00:28:42,975
in, in this country right now?

584
00:28:42,975 --> 00:28:44,175
Like, why is President, president Trump?

585
00:28:44,175 --> 00:28:47,025
Well, to be so drawn to it rather
than some of the other places in the

586
00:28:47,025 --> 00:28:49,725
world that are more geographically
and geopolitically significant?

587
00:28:50,235 --> 00:28:52,605
Marko: So actually, uh, the
future of AI will definitely

588
00:28:52,605 --> 00:28:54,045
not be decided by Saudi Arabia.

589
00:28:54,045 --> 00:28:58,545
I mean, it's, I think, uh, the region
is why they're all there, you know?

590
00:28:58,545 --> 00:29:00,915
And look, capital is important.

591
00:29:01,665 --> 00:29:04,965
Material wealth is the
foundation of geopolitical power.

592
00:29:04,965 --> 00:29:07,125
It's not demographics, it's not geography.

593
00:29:07,125 --> 00:29:08,955
Oh my God, for god's sakes.

594
00:29:09,705 --> 00:29:12,105
You know, the United Kingdom,
what's its population?

595
00:29:12,495 --> 00:29:13,995
Okay, what's its geography?

596
00:29:13,995 --> 00:29:14,865
What's its climate?

597
00:29:14,865 --> 00:29:16,155
What are their natural resources?

598
00:29:16,155 --> 00:29:16,485
None.

599
00:29:16,515 --> 00:29:17,415
None, none, none.

600
00:29:17,415 --> 00:29:19,365
And yet it conquered the entire planet.

601
00:29:19,665 --> 00:29:22,965
The empire ne the sun never
sat on the British empire.

602
00:29:23,355 --> 00:29:27,345
So the reason I say this is because
there's a concentration of wealth and

603
00:29:27,345 --> 00:29:33,105
capital, and there's a tabula rasa
approach to innovation in these countries.

604
00:29:33,105 --> 00:29:35,805
UAE, Oman, Qatar.

605
00:29:36,315 --> 00:29:41,835
Uh, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, the
tabula rasa is very important.

606
00:29:41,835 --> 00:29:44,505
This idea that you can have
like basically a blank slate.

607
00:29:44,595 --> 00:29:47,505
You have capital, let's
do something with it.

608
00:29:48,015 --> 00:29:50,655
Now Saudi Arabia is actually
not taking the tech approach.

609
00:29:50,865 --> 00:29:52,965
To be clear, you're not.

610
00:29:53,505 --> 00:29:56,655
This is the first time that I've
actually really seen like emphasis on

611
00:29:56,655 --> 00:30:01,065
tech bros in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia is
doing, I think what's very intelligent.

612
00:30:01,605 --> 00:30:05,205
They basically fired order McKinsey
consultants 'cause they realized

613
00:30:05,205 --> 00:30:06,525
that they're taking them for a ride.

614
00:30:06,945 --> 00:30:09,705
Well done and they've start
done and they're called

615
00:30:09,975 --> 00:30:10,395
Jacob Shapiro: well done.

616
00:30:10,395 --> 00:30:12,645
And now, and now please call
the geopolitical cousins and

617
00:30:12,645 --> 00:30:13,965
get us, get us the plane.

618
00:30:14,055 --> 00:30:14,445
Marko: We could do it.

619
00:30:14,445 --> 00:30:14,655
Yeah.

620
00:30:15,165 --> 00:30:18,135
Uh, otherwise Qatar will, and
you know how that goes, like

621
00:30:18,255 --> 00:30:19,575
can you really be behind cut?

622
00:30:19,755 --> 00:30:21,075
Like yeah, let's make a pin war.

623
00:30:21,255 --> 00:30:24,465
Who's gonna give us a plane
Watch when a plane gets delivered

624
00:30:24,525 --> 00:30:26,025
on my street in Santa Monica.

625
00:30:26,025 --> 00:30:27,525
Like that will be awkward.

626
00:30:27,585 --> 00:30:27,915
You know?

627
00:30:28,395 --> 00:30:30,540
Um, I. I'll get a ticket for sure.

628
00:30:30,840 --> 00:30:33,479
But look, what I'm trying to say
is that Saudi Arabia's actually

629
00:30:33,479 --> 00:30:34,800
adopted industrialization.

630
00:30:34,830 --> 00:30:39,360
They're focusing on actually kind
of dirty, like, you know, they're

631
00:30:39,360 --> 00:30:42,330
trying to employ 22 million Saudis.

632
00:30:42,360 --> 00:30:44,669
So they're much different
from the other countries.

633
00:30:45,000 --> 00:30:46,290
They're actually a real country.

634
00:30:46,320 --> 00:30:46,409
Mm-hmm.

635
00:30:46,409 --> 00:30:48,659
With like social stratification.

636
00:30:48,659 --> 00:30:50,550
Not every Saudi is a
millionaire, you know?

637
00:30:51,000 --> 00:30:53,070
Uh, and this is something a
lot of people don't understand.

638
00:30:53,070 --> 00:30:55,530
It's a country that needs a
service sector, industrial

639
00:30:55,530 --> 00:30:58,169
sector, and they're doing it
very, very correctly, I would say.

640
00:30:58,320 --> 00:30:58,979
But yes.

641
00:30:59,340 --> 00:31:01,679
Are they gonna get de link from oil price?

642
00:31:01,679 --> 00:31:03,030
No, it's gonna take time.

643
00:31:03,030 --> 00:31:05,310
Or maybe never happen, but UAE.

644
00:31:05,340 --> 00:31:10,770
However, Jacob, I would say think about
that country as a country that does have

645
00:31:10,770 --> 00:31:12,449
some advantages when it comes to ai.

646
00:31:13,020 --> 00:31:13,350
Okay.

647
00:31:13,770 --> 00:31:17,879
What are they, well, first of all,
what's the biggest downside risk to ai?

648
00:31:18,060 --> 00:31:19,110
It's job losses.

649
00:31:19,110 --> 00:31:20,280
I mean, we all know this.

650
00:31:21,015 --> 00:31:23,235
Well, guess who doesn't care at all?

651
00:31:23,310 --> 00:31:24,465
Jacob Shapiro: I, I thought, wait.

652
00:31:24,465 --> 00:31:26,955
I thought the biggest risk of AI
was that it would decide we're all

653
00:31:26,955 --> 00:31:28,545
stupid and take over and kill us.

654
00:31:29,385 --> 00:31:32,865
Marko: I mean, fine, fine, but
in the process it would lead

655
00:31:32,955 --> 00:31:33,405
Jacob Shapiro: to job loss.

656
00:31:33,405 --> 00:31:34,845
We would lose jobs in that scenario too.

657
00:31:36,165 --> 00:31:39,675
Marko: Well, I mean, I think, I
think, look, go it pretty clear,

658
00:31:40,155 --> 00:31:47,175
the biggest risk to AI is that its
deployment will be slowed down by

659
00:31:47,235 --> 00:31:49,965
vent vested interests of unions.

660
00:31:50,055 --> 00:31:53,865
You know, like people say, look, oh no
man, all the truckers will lose their job.

661
00:31:53,895 --> 00:31:58,455
Well, but will they, or will we say
something like, trucks can be driverless,

662
00:31:58,455 --> 00:32:03,495
but there has to be human supervision
so that 3 million American men who work

663
00:32:03,555 --> 00:32:05,295
in transportation don't lose their job.

664
00:32:05,685 --> 00:32:08,415
See, that's something that
Saudi Arabia doesn't have.

665
00:32:08,475 --> 00:32:09,435
Uh, sorry, not Saudi Arabia.

666
00:32:09,465 --> 00:32:11,115
UAE does not have a problem with.

667
00:32:11,520 --> 00:32:15,660
One of the interesting advantages
that United Arab Emirates has is that

668
00:32:15,660 --> 00:32:19,200
their biggest sort of social problem,
socioeconomic problem, national

669
00:32:19,200 --> 00:32:22,440
security problem, is that they have
to rely on expats for everything.

670
00:32:22,620 --> 00:32:27,360
From accountants to doctors,
to nurses, to hotel staff, to

671
00:32:27,420 --> 00:32:29,610
Uber drivers to housekeepers.

672
00:32:30,060 --> 00:32:32,820
And wouldn't it be great if
you didn't have to do that?

673
00:32:33,300 --> 00:32:35,220
And so what are the vested interests?

674
00:32:35,760 --> 00:32:40,830
What vested interests exist in UAE
that will prevent the deployment of ai?

675
00:32:41,040 --> 00:32:45,360
And the answer is kind of fewer
than exist in the rest of the world.

676
00:32:45,360 --> 00:32:47,490
And so I would say that there
is an interesting link there.

677
00:32:47,700 --> 00:32:51,870
But overall all I would say is
that I think that the Middle East

678
00:32:51,870 --> 00:32:53,070
is moving in the right direction.

679
00:32:53,160 --> 00:32:56,490
I think it's gonna become a financial
capital for global south flows.

680
00:32:56,550 --> 00:33:00,690
So south to south connectivity, I think
what Abu Dhabi is doing with financial

681
00:33:01,140 --> 00:33:03,540
like capital is really interesting.

682
00:33:03,780 --> 00:33:06,450
And I think what Saudi Arabia is
doing with its industrialization

683
00:33:06,450 --> 00:33:07,170
is interesting too.

684
00:33:07,200 --> 00:33:10,935
Too many Westerners over
index on the line nail 'em.

685
00:33:11,550 --> 00:33:17,100
Hero projects, you know, like
Yeah, I think, I think that's

686
00:33:17,115 --> 00:33:19,410
Jacob Shapiro: the dis the,
the dismemberment of Khashoggi.

687
00:33:20,220 --> 00:33:24,750
Marko: I mean, well, yeah, but that
happened like how many years ago.

688
00:33:24,810 --> 00:33:27,210
And also, let's not forget the
United States of it happened,

689
00:33:27,210 --> 00:33:28,710
Jacob Shapiro: it happened after 2014,

690
00:33:29,370 --> 00:33:34,379
Marko: but the United States of America
killed a Jazeera journalists in Iraq.

691
00:33:35,940 --> 00:33:36,180
Okay,

692
00:33:36,180 --> 00:33:36,480
Jacob Shapiro: sure.

693
00:33:36,480 --> 00:33:38,400
I mean, I, I don't know that,
but if you say that, sure.

694
00:33:38,400 --> 00:33:39,360
That doesn't to defeat the point.

695
00:33:39,360 --> 00:33:39,455
No, it's,

696
00:33:39,455 --> 00:33:39,775
Marko: it's a fact.

697
00:33:40,050 --> 00:33:44,190
United States of America shot a
missile into Al Jazeera headquarters

698
00:33:44,220 --> 00:33:46,110
in Baghdad or somewhere in Iraq.

699
00:33:46,140 --> 00:33:46,410
Okay.

700
00:33:47,070 --> 00:33:47,940
Jacob Shapiro: If you say so, fine.

701
00:33:47,970 --> 00:33:51,420
The Saudi, the Saudis are still
dismembering journalists, like in,

702
00:33:51,425 --> 00:33:54,420
in, during this time p period, that
they've embraced liberalization.

703
00:33:54,900 --> 00:34:01,470
Marko: Well, the plural, the plural is,
is awkward in that statement, right?

704
00:34:01,680 --> 00:34:01,890
Yeah.

705
00:34:01,890 --> 00:34:03,180
Number one, the plural is, is awkward.

706
00:34:03,180 --> 00:34:07,650
And the second thing is, you know,
uh, Moham bins actually accepted.

707
00:34:08,790 --> 00:34:12,389
That that happens and that that
was the fault of the state.

708
00:34:14,070 --> 00:34:15,150
Think about that for a second.

709
00:34:15,989 --> 00:34:21,000
When the United States of America killed
several journalists for Al Jazeera during

710
00:34:21,000 --> 00:34:26,070
the Iraqi counterinsurgency, it was
like, oops, sorry, like raw building.

711
00:34:26,250 --> 00:34:27,330
Like, oh, okay.

712
00:34:27,810 --> 00:34:33,690
All, all, all I would say is that, you
know, uh, if the worst that Saudi Arabia

713
00:34:33,690 --> 00:34:37,860
has done is the death of one single
journalist, I would say like, let's not

714
00:34:37,860 --> 00:34:43,949
start comparing the ledger on crimes
against journalism of other countries.

715
00:34:43,949 --> 00:34:44,009
Yeah.

716
00:34:44,014 --> 00:34:44,045
We

717
00:34:44,045 --> 00:34:47,429
Jacob Shapiro: can also, we can also talk
about the support, like the soft support

718
00:34:47,429 --> 00:34:48,630
of Jihadist Group, blah, blah, blah, blah.

719
00:34:48,630 --> 00:34:49,949
But yes, I, I'd say your point, but that

720
00:34:50,190 --> 00:34:50,429
Marko: Okay.

721
00:34:50,429 --> 00:34:53,070
But we should talk about that because
I would say the transformation

722
00:34:53,070 --> 00:34:55,050
of Saudi Arabia is based on that.

723
00:34:55,830 --> 00:35:01,440
It is not the soft support, it's the
hard support for SUNY Islamists mm-hmm.

724
00:35:01,680 --> 00:35:05,880
That caused what you would
call an intelligence a, uh.

725
00:35:07,470 --> 00:35:09,180
Wait, I forgot the term backlash.

726
00:35:11,430 --> 00:35:11,640
Hmm.

727
00:35:11,670 --> 00:35:12,480
Jacob Shapiro: Yeah, that works.

728
00:35:12,480 --> 00:35:13,680
I think, I think that's
what you're trying to say.

729
00:35:13,860 --> 00:35:15,840
Marko: Yeah, that's what, no, there's
a, there's a different term though,

730
00:35:15,870 --> 00:35:17,040
but anyways, by brain thought.

731
00:35:17,040 --> 00:35:20,700
But yeah, that's exactly why they've
transformed the country, because the

732
00:35:20,700 --> 00:35:24,060
country has clearly realized that
they were the ones that were gonna

733
00:35:24,060 --> 00:35:27,840
actually hurt the most because of
their support for Sunni Islamists.

734
00:35:28,410 --> 00:35:30,900
And I think that the moment when
that really came home to roost

735
00:35:30,900 --> 00:35:34,680
to Saudi Arabia was when Baghdadi
proclaimed the caliphate out of Mosul.

736
00:35:35,820 --> 00:35:35,970
Yeah.

737
00:35:36,570 --> 00:35:39,240
You know, because caliphate
doesn't mean that you're gonna

738
00:35:39,240 --> 00:35:42,240
go to Rome or Paris or New York.

739
00:35:42,240 --> 00:35:43,170
It means you need Mecca.

740
00:35:43,830 --> 00:35:47,400
And I think that was the moment when
Saudi Arabia, it was precisely because

741
00:35:47,400 --> 00:35:53,760
of its overt support for Sunni Islamism,
that it has changed today so profound.

742
00:35:54,450 --> 00:35:57,900
So, and yes, it's not gonna be a smooth
sailing, it's not gonna be a straight

743
00:35:57,900 --> 00:36:01,620
line, and you have all sorts of, you know,
you are always gonna have empirical data

744
00:36:01,620 --> 00:36:07,740
points to prove that it isn't working
or that there's like illiberalism.

745
00:36:07,740 --> 00:36:10,980
But I think that, again, you gotta
go to Saudi Arabia physically,

746
00:36:10,980 --> 00:36:12,450
I think, to see the changes.

747
00:36:12,509 --> 00:36:16,500
Otherwise, you know, is
just not gonna stick.

748
00:36:17,850 --> 00:36:21,000
Jacob Shapiro: Yeah, I, I'm reminded
of, um, early House of Cards when

749
00:36:21,000 --> 00:36:24,120
House of Cards was actually good,
where Remy is running around lobbying

750
00:36:24,120 --> 00:36:27,000
things like that, and Frank Underwood
turns to the camera and is like,

751
00:36:27,000 --> 00:36:28,710
Remy mistakes money with power.

752
00:36:29,100 --> 00:36:30,780
Um, and I had that running
through my head when you were

753
00:36:30,780 --> 00:36:31,860
talking about material wealth.

754
00:36:31,860 --> 00:36:35,160
And I also have the fact that due
to low oil prices, Saudi Arabia's

755
00:36:35,160 --> 00:36:38,040
already hit its budget deficit target
for the year and we're on, we're

756
00:36:38,040 --> 00:36:39,001
not even halfway through the year.

757
00:36:39,006 --> 00:36:39,565
Well, that's fine, fine.

758
00:36:39,565 --> 00:36:41,550
Now they have big coffers
and all these other things.

759
00:36:41,550 --> 00:36:43,920
Like I get that they have material
wealth, but it can't go there.

760
00:36:43,920 --> 00:36:47,700
But I think that, um, the, the points
we were making about the UAE and the

761
00:36:47,700 --> 00:36:52,590
power of city states relative to big
states, it actually plays very well

762
00:36:52,590 --> 00:36:54,330
into our power geopolitical draft.

763
00:36:54,330 --> 00:36:57,090
But before I hand over the mc
duties to you, I think we should

764
00:36:57,090 --> 00:37:01,950
spend literally max two minutes,
30 seconds on what's going on.

765
00:37:01,950 --> 00:37:03,750
A little update on Russia, Ukraine.

766
00:37:04,020 --> 00:37:06,570
'cause there's supposed to be
negotiations in Istanbul tomorrow.

767
00:37:06,570 --> 00:37:07,290
Will they happen?

768
00:37:07,290 --> 00:37:08,010
Won't they happen?

769
00:37:08,010 --> 00:37:09,000
Is there a ceasefire?

770
00:37:09,000 --> 00:37:10,260
Is there not a ceasefire?

771
00:37:10,500 --> 00:37:13,260
So give me your 60 seconds and
maybe I'll do 60 seconds and

772
00:37:13,260 --> 00:37:14,220
then let's get to the fun part.

773
00:37:16,215 --> 00:37:19,095
Marko: Uh, well, I think that we're
getting to a point where, I mean, it's

774
00:37:19,095 --> 00:37:24,975
pretty clear that just like Benjamin
Netanyahu, uh, Vladimir Putin is

775
00:37:25,005 --> 00:37:28,125
risking drawing the ire of Donald Trump.

776
00:37:29,295 --> 00:37:32,205
You know, and again, this is where liberal
critics of President Trump are gonna

777
00:37:32,205 --> 00:37:37,215
have to eat a lot of crow because he was
supposed to be pro-Russian, you know?

778
00:37:37,905 --> 00:37:39,645
Well, mm. Doesn't look like it.

779
00:37:40,365 --> 00:37:44,295
And if Putin makes a mistake here,
like if I was Putin's advisor, I'd be

780
00:37:44,295 --> 00:37:48,525
like, listen bro, you gotta cut your
losses and proclaim victory ASAP.

781
00:37:48,555 --> 00:37:50,175
Now I know what the problem for Putin is.

782
00:37:50,175 --> 00:37:53,895
He hasn't conquered them
yet, which is part of, right.

783
00:37:53,895 --> 00:37:58,065
So he needs to bring all of Donbas
home or else a lot of right wing

784
00:37:58,065 --> 00:38:01,395
nationalist bloggers are gonna
like, you know, go after him.

785
00:38:02,385 --> 00:38:08,505
He just needs to cut his losses, sharpen
the bone, saw since you're obsessed

786
00:38:08,505 --> 00:38:13,275
with that point, and start putting
some of those bloggers, uh, in jail.

787
00:38:14,294 --> 00:38:16,785
Because the truth is you're
gonna have to swallow a deal.

788
00:38:17,145 --> 00:38:21,495
You're gonna have to swallow a deal,
uh, that maybe some nationalist right

789
00:38:21,495 --> 00:38:23,384
wing lunatics in Russia don't like.

790
00:38:23,384 --> 00:38:25,154
But you know what, who
cares about borders?

791
00:38:25,544 --> 00:38:28,815
Don, I'll tell you who,
who does not give a fuck?

792
00:38:30,435 --> 00:38:34,815
Jacob Shapiro: Yeah, that nihilist,
Jay Trump does not kill that.

793
00:38:34,819 --> 00:38:34,830
That.

794
00:38:35,700 --> 00:38:37,650
Nihilist Colon is really wafting today.

795
00:38:37,680 --> 00:38:40,230
The only thing I want to add to
what you were saying is that I don't

796
00:38:40,230 --> 00:38:41,340
know if it was intentional or not.

797
00:38:41,340 --> 00:38:44,310
I don't have the receipts to prove it
one way or another, but I did put myself

798
00:38:44,310 --> 00:38:48,000
out there when the Zelensky Oval Office
incident happened and said, I think

799
00:38:48,000 --> 00:38:49,800
actually Zelensky got the better of that.

800
00:38:49,890 --> 00:38:53,190
I think he actually understood the
moment better than anybody else.

801
00:38:53,490 --> 00:38:56,430
And I think that's true today because
like what was the first things that

802
00:38:56,430 --> 00:39:00,720
Zelensky said when the US was talking
about peace negotiations and Istanbul?

803
00:39:00,870 --> 00:39:02,820
He said, I'll be there as
soon as Putin is there.

804
00:39:02,940 --> 00:39:04,890
Like he has been Yes sir.
Every step of the way.

805
00:39:04,890 --> 00:39:07,530
And he's also gotten the
Europeans squarely in his corner

806
00:39:07,530 --> 00:39:10,470
because they're afraid of the
big Donald in the White House.

807
00:39:10,500 --> 00:39:14,040
'cause you've had Macron, Germany both
come out and say, if Russia does not show

808
00:39:14,040 --> 00:39:16,710
up to the summit, additional sanctions
for Russia, we're gonna get tougher.

809
00:39:16,710 --> 00:39:19,650
So I think Zelensky actually like
pushed back against Trump a little bit.

810
00:39:19,860 --> 00:39:21,300
Got the Europeans on board.

811
00:39:21,300 --> 00:39:24,390
Looks like he's the one that's actually
playing ball in the aftermath, whereas

812
00:39:24,390 --> 00:39:26,460
Putin is now the one sitting there.

813
00:39:26,460 --> 00:39:27,600
But he wasn't though, like
not quite figuring it out.

814
00:39:27,915 --> 00:39:28,305
Marko: I think.

815
00:39:28,305 --> 00:39:30,225
I think you, you, yes, that's correct.

816
00:39:30,225 --> 00:39:35,084
But he wasn't playing ball and he was
obsessed with normative value statements.

817
00:39:35,774 --> 00:39:37,069
Remember when Zelensky, I think, yeah,

818
00:39:37,270 --> 00:39:39,015
Jacob Shapiro: I think, I
think that was for the cameras.

819
00:39:39,044 --> 00:39:42,104
I think that was all about, oh, if
I position myself here correctly, if

820
00:39:42,104 --> 00:39:45,015
I show myself pushing back against
Trump, I get support at home.

821
00:39:45,015 --> 00:39:46,305
I get support from the Europeans.

822
00:39:46,305 --> 00:39:47,265
I don't really care.

823
00:39:47,265 --> 00:39:50,234
I just wanna make sure that
everybody's on my side.

824
00:39:50,265 --> 00:39:53,084
And you remember when Trump, you were the
one who brought this up, that Trump turns

825
00:39:53,084 --> 00:39:54,915
to the TV and says, wasn't that good tv?

826
00:39:55,125 --> 00:39:57,435
I think Zelensky knew
that was good TV too.

827
00:39:57,705 --> 00:40:01,725
And I think he used that net meeting
to shore up some domestic support

828
00:40:01,725 --> 00:40:04,665
home, get the Europeans freaked out
so that they would support him more.

829
00:40:04,845 --> 00:40:06,705
And now like he walked it back.

830
00:40:06,705 --> 00:40:10,064
So when negotiations got a little
further down the road, he's the one

831
00:40:10,064 --> 00:40:11,145
that's meeting Trump in the back.

832
00:40:11,151 --> 00:40:11,589
Well, that's important.

833
00:40:11,589 --> 00:40:11,709
Yeah.

834
00:40:11,714 --> 00:40:14,535
He's the one who's saying, I will
show up in Istanbul immediately.

835
00:40:14,535 --> 00:40:18,555
You tell me where, when, how high to
jump, how many rare earth minerals Fine.

836
00:40:18,555 --> 00:40:20,834
And it's Putin is now the
one that looks recalcitrant.

837
00:40:20,834 --> 00:40:21,765
I think he played it right.

838
00:40:22,455 --> 00:40:25,035
Marko: I mean, I don't think
Zelensky played five D chess.

839
00:40:25,965 --> 00:40:28,665
I think I have a more of an
Occam's raise view on this.

840
00:40:28,665 --> 00:40:29,385
You know, and it's fine.

841
00:40:29,385 --> 00:40:34,455
We, we disagree, but like, I think
he walked in there intoxicated

842
00:40:34,455 --> 00:40:37,485
with the normative moralistic
bullshit of the Biden administration

843
00:40:38,685 --> 00:40:40,725
that elevated him into a saint.

844
00:40:40,935 --> 00:40:45,375
And he was shocked, shocked by
denialism of the Trump administration

845
00:40:45,975 --> 00:40:48,345
when Trump basically said, look,
you're both the same to me.

846
00:40:48,735 --> 00:40:49,155
You know?

847
00:40:49,845 --> 00:40:57,525
And uh, but to his credit and where we do
agree is that he is smart enough to know.

848
00:40:57,585 --> 00:40:57,885
Oh.

849
00:40:57,915 --> 00:40:58,485
Oh, okay.

850
00:40:58,815 --> 00:40:59,265
Oh, okay.

851
00:40:59,325 --> 00:41:00,285
So that's what you want.

852
00:41:01,335 --> 00:41:02,325
You want me to show?

853
00:41:02,325 --> 00:41:03,555
I'm willing to negotiate.

854
00:41:04,425 --> 00:41:05,205
Alright.

855
00:41:06,345 --> 00:41:08,115
Balls in Putin's court then.

856
00:41:09,195 --> 00:41:15,705
And look, I mean, again, I think
that the big risk for both Netanyahu

857
00:41:15,705 --> 00:41:21,165
and Putin is to assume is to
read New York Times, you know.

858
00:41:21,674 --> 00:41:25,005
Don't read mainstream media and
become intoxicated with this view

859
00:41:25,005 --> 00:41:27,045
that Trump is somehow pro your side.

860
00:41:27,825 --> 00:41:32,325
You better start dancing when he plays
the tune or else you're gonna feel

861
00:41:32,325 --> 00:41:37,154
the full wrath of the US And if us and
Europe get on the same page and they

862
00:41:37,154 --> 00:41:41,805
get those secondary sanctions on, on, on
Russia, I think that's kind of game over.

863
00:41:43,005 --> 00:41:43,214
Jacob Shapiro: Yeah.

864
00:41:43,785 --> 00:41:44,265
Alright.

865
00:41:44,895 --> 00:41:46,964
We have 45 minutes to
do a geopolitical draft.

866
00:41:46,964 --> 00:41:48,165
Take the mic away, my friend.

867
00:41:49,245 --> 00:41:49,964
Marko: Alright, cool.

868
00:41:49,995 --> 00:41:53,355
So, uh, this is gonna be on
the title of the podcast.

869
00:41:53,355 --> 00:41:58,904
So if you sort of, uh, expected this, uh,
you know, you might have fast forwarded

870
00:41:58,910 --> 00:42:02,685
through the first 45 minutes or not,
but what Jacob and I are gonna do is

871
00:42:02,685 --> 00:42:04,875
we're going to pick 10 countries each.

872
00:42:05,145 --> 00:42:08,865
So it's from one to 20, and we're
gonna try to make a case for,

873
00:42:09,225 --> 00:42:11,924
you know, what are the 20 most
powerful countries in the world.

874
00:42:11,924 --> 00:42:15,075
And of course, since our Lord
and Savior is Bill Simmons

875
00:42:17,085 --> 00:42:19,455
of the, uh, bill Simmons podcast network.

876
00:42:20,265 --> 00:42:20,835
And the ringer.

877
00:42:20,835 --> 00:42:25,154
He has this thing for basketball, which
is the, I think, trade value draft, right?

878
00:42:25,395 --> 00:42:25,815
Jacob

879
00:42:26,025 --> 00:42:26,835
Jacob Shapiro: trade value column.

880
00:42:26,924 --> 00:42:28,515
Yeah, it's a trade value column, but yes.

881
00:42:28,665 --> 00:42:28,845
Yeah.

882
00:42:29,625 --> 00:42:29,775
Marko: Yeah.

883
00:42:29,775 --> 00:42:35,715
So basically what what he does is, uh,
he picks players not based of just their

884
00:42:36,525 --> 00:42:41,625
skill or their abilities today, but
it's their progression in the future

885
00:42:41,625 --> 00:42:43,125
relative to how much they're paid.

886
00:42:43,515 --> 00:42:43,785
Right?

887
00:42:43,785 --> 00:42:49,245
So some rookie who looks like Victor
Mbma, who is an absolute freak of

888
00:42:49,245 --> 00:42:53,085
nature in the San Antonio Spurs,
he's obviously top two, right?

889
00:42:53,085 --> 00:42:56,505
Because he is seven foot 12
or whatever the hell he is.

890
00:42:57,134 --> 00:42:57,825
He's incredible.

891
00:42:57,825 --> 00:42:59,355
And he's on a rookie contract.

892
00:42:59,355 --> 00:43:01,335
So what we wanna do is we
wanna do the same thing.

893
00:43:01,575 --> 00:43:04,215
We wanna think about the
next, uh, I think 30 years.

894
00:43:04,215 --> 00:43:04,694
Jacob.

895
00:43:04,815 --> 00:43:06,225
Let's, let's look, look at, that's fine.

896
00:43:06,404 --> 00:43:06,615
Yeah.

897
00:43:06,615 --> 00:43:08,595
Like, so not a hundred year time horizon.

898
00:43:08,625 --> 00:43:09,465
'cause that's insane.

899
00:43:09,465 --> 00:43:11,265
We don't know what technologies
are gonna be out there.

900
00:43:11,475 --> 00:43:14,895
We wanna really focus on the
next 30 year time horizon.

901
00:43:14,955 --> 00:43:19,365
And we wanna think about countries
that are, um, going to be, you know.

902
00:43:19,725 --> 00:43:22,065
The most powerful country geopolitically.

903
00:43:22,065 --> 00:43:27,405
Now, in terms of what, um, what sort
of rubrics we're gonna use, what

904
00:43:27,405 --> 00:43:33,315
sort of, um, variables, what sort of
attributes one would use for this?

905
00:43:33,675 --> 00:43:35,985
We're gonna probably have
different views on this.

906
00:43:36,615 --> 00:43:39,945
So, uh, there's something called
a National Capability Index.

907
00:43:40,395 --> 00:43:44,415
It was created by the Correlates
of War Project in 1963.

908
00:43:45,045 --> 00:43:49,695
Um, this is an extremely outdated
way to measure geopolitical power.

909
00:43:50,295 --> 00:43:54,825
It has things like military personnel,
like how many men with weapons,

910
00:43:54,825 --> 00:43:57,705
you have iron and steel production.

911
00:43:58,485 --> 00:44:01,905
Um, it has, uh, although, you know,
somebody like Donald Trump might

912
00:44:01,905 --> 00:44:05,925
be overindexed on this since he's
obsessed about iron and steel, but

913
00:44:05,925 --> 00:44:08,145
it's a very Cold War era index.

914
00:44:08,145 --> 00:44:09,645
You can go and you can take a look at it.

915
00:44:10,575 --> 00:44:14,475
Um, the political scientist
who created it back during the,

916
00:44:14,535 --> 00:44:16,485
uh, cold War was David Singer.

917
00:44:16,485 --> 00:44:17,235
He was the founder.

918
00:44:17,235 --> 00:44:18,855
He's a political scientist,
university of Michigan.

919
00:44:19,095 --> 00:44:20,265
You can download it online.

920
00:44:20,265 --> 00:44:24,885
China's actually number one on this, and
I think that it's because it's outdated.

921
00:44:25,155 --> 00:44:28,275
You know, it looks at demographics
in a very one-to-one basis.

922
00:44:28,755 --> 00:44:31,275
Uh, in my own research, I've
created something, um, that I

923
00:44:31,275 --> 00:44:33,735
call the Geopolitical Power Index.

924
00:44:33,795 --> 00:44:37,515
And it, uh, looks at, uh, a
little bit of different four

925
00:44:37,515 --> 00:44:39,975
variables, uh, on population.

926
00:44:40,905 --> 00:44:44,955
Uh, I adapt the original population,
me measure by penalizing countries with

927
00:44:44,955 --> 00:44:47,955
large dependency ratios, so old to youth.

928
00:44:48,615 --> 00:44:52,365
Um, and so, uh, I make make the
argument that it's not just the

929
00:44:52,365 --> 00:44:55,515
size of your population, it's
also the demographic, uh, pyramid.

930
00:44:56,235 --> 00:44:58,815
Uh, the second is global
economic relevance.

931
00:44:58,845 --> 00:45:02,835
So the original index really
failed to capture a relevance

932
00:45:02,835 --> 00:45:03,855
for the global economy.

933
00:45:04,905 --> 00:45:07,005
So there was no globalist future.

934
00:45:07,365 --> 00:45:11,775
So what I look at is contribution
to the global final demand.

935
00:45:11,985 --> 00:45:16,575
The more an economy imports, I argue the
greater its bargaining power in terms

936
00:45:16,575 --> 00:45:19,185
of trade vis-a-vis geopolitical rivals.

937
00:45:19,245 --> 00:45:23,025
So what matters to me is
imports as percent of uh, GDP.

938
00:45:23,685 --> 00:45:26,385
And then for the military, I
don't really look at things

939
00:45:26,385 --> 00:45:28,485
like, uh, maned wood weapons.

940
00:45:28,515 --> 00:45:31,215
I look at whether you have
technological cap capacity.

941
00:45:31,755 --> 00:45:33,465
Uh, so I have this quantitative measure.

942
00:45:33,465 --> 00:45:38,055
There's a couple of other things as well,
r and d. Um, I look at that as well.

943
00:45:38,055 --> 00:45:39,165
That's part of the index.

944
00:45:40,155 --> 00:45:41,715
I'm not actually going to use this index.

945
00:45:41,715 --> 00:45:44,145
I'm gonna deviate from it because
we're thinking about the future.

946
00:45:44,475 --> 00:45:47,625
But I'm just saying that there's a
quantitative basis for some of my picks.

947
00:45:48,480 --> 00:45:50,490
Did you wanna say anything
before we start, Jacob?

948
00:45:51,150 --> 00:45:51,540
Jacob Shapiro: Yeah.

949
00:45:51,540 --> 00:45:51,720
Yeah.

950
00:45:51,720 --> 00:45:54,450
I do wanna say something about, uh,
before we start, and by you and I,

951
00:45:54,480 --> 00:45:57,900
we haven't talked about this when I
was still at GPF with George, we, uh,

952
00:45:57,990 --> 00:46:01,230
when we were trying to sell GPF for
to institutions for subscriptions,

953
00:46:01,230 --> 00:46:06,030
we created the GPI, the Geopolitical
Power Index, which I have not gone back

954
00:46:06,030 --> 00:46:08,340
to since I left, uh, George in 2019.

955
00:46:08,340 --> 00:46:11,490
But we did a similar, uh, sort of
exercise, so that's really funny.

956
00:46:11,910 --> 00:46:15,810
Um, I was actually, I, I, I'm actually
reminded of something that, um,

957
00:46:15,885 --> 00:46:18,930
I, I don't know if Roger trained,
trained you, Marco, but when I was

958
00:46:18,930 --> 00:46:22,560
a, an intern at, at Stratford, Roger
was the one who was like overseeing

959
00:46:22,650 --> 00:46:23,910
Roger Baker development program.

960
00:46:23,910 --> 00:46:24,240
He's still

961
00:46:24,245 --> 00:46:25,245
Marko: a Stratford, I believe.

962
00:46:25,245 --> 00:46:25,246
Roger.

963
00:46:25,710 --> 00:46:25,920
Jacob Shapiro: Yep.

964
00:46:26,460 --> 00:46:26,880
He is.

965
00:46:26,970 --> 00:46:27,300
He is.

966
00:46:27,300 --> 00:46:30,570
Uh, don't take this the wrong way,
Roger, queen of the ashes, if you will.

967
00:46:30,720 --> 00:46:31,110
Um.

968
00:46:31,800 --> 00:46:35,580
So, uh, a little Game of Thrones,
denars, storm born reference there.

969
00:46:35,580 --> 00:46:39,960
So, but, um, he, I, I remember many
of the things that Roger taught, and

970
00:46:39,960 --> 00:46:42,990
Roger's been on my podcast too, so if
you wanna know who Roger Baker is, he

971
00:46:42,990 --> 00:46:46,440
doesn't have a big, um, he does not
have a big following, I don't think.

972
00:46:46,440 --> 00:46:47,550
'cause he never really wanted that.

973
00:46:47,550 --> 00:46:48,780
But in some ways he like trained.

974
00:46:48,810 --> 00:46:51,090
He was the one actually training
a lot of us in the brass tacks,

975
00:46:51,390 --> 00:46:54,360
but he always told me, geopolitics
is not a science, it's an art.

976
00:46:54,365 --> 00:46:54,575
Agreed.

977
00:46:54,575 --> 00:46:57,960
It's more like agreed making pottery
than it is about, you know, figuring out

978
00:46:57,960 --> 00:46:59,490
statistics and quantitative measures.

979
00:46:59,490 --> 00:47:00,450
And I've always remembered that.

980
00:47:00,450 --> 00:47:03,900
It was always super helpful for me when
going into really quantitative spaces

981
00:47:04,170 --> 00:47:07,050
and having the confidence to be like,
okay, like, great, you have statistics.

982
00:47:07,050 --> 00:47:09,570
I also have statistics, like
I have a very nice index here.

983
00:47:09,570 --> 00:47:11,550
I can make the index say whatever I want.

984
00:47:11,610 --> 00:47:14,730
I can find a chart or a piece of
data that will support any viewpoint.

985
00:47:14,730 --> 00:47:18,900
In the end, the more important thing is
to qualitatively say, what do I think?

986
00:47:19,195 --> 00:47:20,035
This is gonna happen.

987
00:47:20,035 --> 00:47:24,355
And so when I think about power, for me
it boils down to really one key question.

988
00:47:24,775 --> 00:47:27,925
Can this country make you do
something you don't wanna do?

989
00:47:28,645 --> 00:47:31,525
And to the extent that a country
can do that to you, I will add

990
00:47:31,525 --> 00:47:33,115
checks in in the power basis.

991
00:47:33,115 --> 00:47:35,275
So it's not like I'm just
throwing darts at the wall here.

992
00:47:35,275 --> 00:47:37,765
Then we have to think about things
like, like you said, population.

993
00:47:37,795 --> 00:47:40,075
I think nuclear weapons is
a really tough one here.

994
00:47:40,075 --> 00:47:43,435
And one I really struggled with, is
it all the nuclear countries first

995
00:47:43,435 --> 00:47:44,755
and then non-nuclear countries?

996
00:47:44,755 --> 00:47:49,345
Below are are, if you're like a middling
nuclear power, like in Israel or a

997
00:47:49,345 --> 00:47:52,375
Pakistan, okay, you have nukes, but does
that mean you're more powerful than in

998
00:47:52,375 --> 00:47:55,765
Japan who doesn't technically have nukes
but has all these other, like that was

999
00:47:55,765 --> 00:47:57,025
one thing that I really struggled with.

1000
00:47:57,025 --> 00:48:00,205
But yeah, for me it's all about we
can have all these indicators, we can

1001
00:48:00,205 --> 00:48:03,715
look at all these different things,
but comes back to the question, can

1002
00:48:03,715 --> 00:48:06,595
this country make another country
do something that it doesn't wanna

1003
00:48:06,595 --> 00:48:08,035
do more than other countries?

1004
00:48:08,035 --> 00:48:09,895
And that was my ultimate sort of rubric.

1005
00:48:10,950 --> 00:48:11,669
Marko: Uh, brilliant.

1006
00:48:11,879 --> 00:48:13,229
And I absolutely agree with you.

1007
00:48:13,229 --> 00:48:14,669
It's not a science at all.

1008
00:48:14,879 --> 00:48:18,390
So I wanna just start off by saying
that yes, I have a quantitative index

1009
00:48:18,390 --> 00:48:22,770
and I'm gonna deviate from it quite
significantly, just to be clear.

1010
00:48:23,009 --> 00:48:25,439
Um, yeah, that's it.

1011
00:48:25,589 --> 00:48:26,009
Um, I, I

1012
00:48:26,009 --> 00:48:27,750
Jacob Shapiro: do too, and I
will, and I will deviate from it.

1013
00:48:27,750 --> 00:48:29,310
Everybody has a
quantitative index and chat.

1014
00:48:29,310 --> 00:48:32,189
GPT probably has quantitative in
disease better than any of ours.

1015
00:48:32,189 --> 00:48:34,529
But the thing that will keep us
relevant for the next 30 years

1016
00:48:34,529 --> 00:48:35,609
is like, it's not that easy.

1017
00:48:35,669 --> 00:48:36,870
Like, that's what keeps us in business.

1018
00:48:37,410 --> 00:48:39,990
Marko: Well, yeah, and, and I think
the point is like, let's, let's really

1019
00:48:39,990 --> 00:48:42,000
think about some non-linearity here.

1020
00:48:42,060 --> 00:48:46,169
Like, uh, given the technology and
given where we're going, you know,

1021
00:48:46,169 --> 00:48:49,649
what are some of the countries that I
think are going to be, uh, interesting

1022
00:48:49,649 --> 00:48:51,029
Now, nuclear power is interesting.

1023
00:48:51,029 --> 00:48:52,470
I think it's absolutely critical.

1024
00:48:53,040 --> 00:48:56,459
Um, I, I would answer that
question to you, Jacob, by saying

1025
00:48:56,459 --> 00:48:58,950
that there are countries out
there that are nuclear powers.

1026
00:48:59,129 --> 00:49:01,410
You know, like Japan, let's not joke here.

1027
00:49:01,410 --> 00:49:04,109
If Japan wants a nuclear
weapon, it's, it has one.

1028
00:49:04,140 --> 00:49:04,200
Yeah.

1029
00:49:04,859 --> 00:49:07,319
The other one that, that I think
is interesting is population.

1030
00:49:07,740 --> 00:49:10,920
Uh, I think that you will notice
that I will, uh, completely and

1031
00:49:10,920 --> 00:49:12,390
utterly dismiss demographics.

1032
00:49:14,100 --> 00:49:18,000
I think that, I think that we
are way too obsessed with it.

1033
00:49:18,420 --> 00:49:23,400
Um, probably because anyone can download
data from the UN and then be an expert.

1034
00:49:23,970 --> 00:49:30,390
And the truth is that we're getting a
ton of innovation in AI and automation

1035
00:49:30,420 --> 00:49:32,790
that literally makes humans irrelevant.

1036
00:49:33,180 --> 00:49:36,540
And so not irrelevant, but
like I. Population size.

1037
00:49:37,080 --> 00:49:40,860
And I still hear this nonsense about
Russia not being able to feel the

1038
00:49:40,860 --> 00:49:44,970
military 'cause his population is
declining or China having a problem

1039
00:49:44,970 --> 00:49:46,380
'cause it has not enough men.

1040
00:49:46,380 --> 00:49:48,180
What are people talking about Jacob?

1041
00:49:48,540 --> 00:49:50,760
We're not fighting wars
with millions of men.

1042
00:49:50,880 --> 00:49:51,240
Right?

1043
00:49:51,240 --> 00:49:51,600
Like

1044
00:49:51,900 --> 00:49:53,760
Jacob Shapiro: I'll, I'll be, I'll
be less diplomatic than you are.

1045
00:49:53,790 --> 00:49:56,550
Peter Zhan is talking about
things on his YouTube channel in

1046
00:49:56,550 --> 00:49:57,705
order to get clicks and listen.

1047
00:49:57,710 --> 00:50:00,510
And also if you wanna talk about
demographics, you can go read the fourth

1048
00:50:00,510 --> 00:50:03,745
turning or whatever else, which I famously
take shots at whenever I have the chance.

1049
00:50:04,085 --> 00:50:05,025
Marko: And, and for good reason.

1050
00:50:05,340 --> 00:50:08,580
I mean, look, India supposedly
has great demographics.

1051
00:50:08,580 --> 00:50:09,120
Really.

1052
00:50:09,420 --> 00:50:13,590
I think I used this on this podcast
before, like India, there was recently

1053
00:50:13,590 --> 00:50:15,840
a Indian railways like job application.

1054
00:50:16,485 --> 00:50:19,635
For like 900 a job openings,
2 million people applied.

1055
00:50:19,635 --> 00:50:23,295
Like it's more difficult to get a
job in Indian railways than to get

1056
00:50:23,295 --> 00:50:26,025
into Harvard, uh, Northern Africa.

1057
00:50:26,235 --> 00:50:30,345
The countries of Northern Africa
that started Arab Spring had gorgeous

1058
00:50:30,345 --> 00:50:32,265
population pyramids for God's sakes.

1059
00:50:32,265 --> 00:50:35,895
You know, just having a lot
of young people doesn't mean

1060
00:50:36,225 --> 00:50:37,575
that you're gonna be fine.

1061
00:50:37,575 --> 00:50:41,205
In fact, in many ways you're not gonna
be fine because you have too many

1062
00:50:41,205 --> 00:50:42,975
young people that you can't employ.

1063
00:50:42,975 --> 00:50:43,665
So anyways,

1064
00:50:44,775 --> 00:50:46,830
Jacob Shapiro: yeah, no, and thing
I would just to make the point the

1065
00:50:46,835 --> 00:50:49,545
most in India's gdp, d per capita,
you'll see that in my, is just

1066
00:50:49,545 --> 00:50:51,195
above that of the Republic of Congo.

1067
00:50:52,035 --> 00:50:55,335
So like, population can be a curse if
you have too much and you're not wealthy

1068
00:50:55,335 --> 00:50:56,325
enough to spread the wealth around.

1069
00:50:56,415 --> 00:50:56,685
Yes.

1070
00:50:56,685 --> 00:50:56,925
Go on.

1071
00:50:56,925 --> 00:50:57,105
Sorry.

1072
00:50:57,650 --> 00:50:58,065
Marko: Yeah, yeah.

1073
00:50:58,065 --> 00:51:01,845
No, so I'm just saying like, you
will see that in my, uh, deviation.

1074
00:51:01,845 --> 00:51:06,345
I, I think given technology and given that
demographics is a, a double-edged sword.

1075
00:51:06,855 --> 00:51:08,090
Think of it as a double-edged sword.

1076
00:51:08,090 --> 00:51:08,290
Mm-hmm.

1077
00:51:08,370 --> 00:51:09,315
It can cut both ways.

1078
00:51:09,675 --> 00:51:13,185
Alright, so let's start, I'm gonna
start this time around because, um, you

1079
00:51:13,185 --> 00:51:16,875
know, I've spent a lot of this, uh, uh,
podcast relationship with you, Jacob,

1080
00:51:16,935 --> 00:51:23,235
uh, kind of bashing the idea of American,
uh, unipolarity and hegemony and, uh,

1081
00:51:23,625 --> 00:51:27,285
you know, I've been talking about the
multipolar world longer than Xi Jinping

1082
00:51:27,285 --> 00:51:29,565
and Vladimir Putin, for God's sakes.

1083
00:51:29,565 --> 00:51:31,635
You know, so I'm gonna start
off by picking the United

1084
00:51:31,635 --> 00:51:32,985
States of America as number one.

1085
00:51:33,285 --> 00:51:33,705
Of course.

1086
00:51:33,795 --> 00:51:37,665
I think, you know, I think we all
agree, um, and this is very important

1087
00:51:37,665 --> 00:51:38,865
for those who listen to this.

1088
00:51:39,435 --> 00:51:40,755
America is not a hegemon.

1089
00:51:40,845 --> 00:51:43,005
It does not have preponderance of power.

1090
00:51:43,455 --> 00:51:47,085
It cannot force you to do things with
a phone call, as it did famously in

1091
00:51:47,085 --> 00:51:51,015
the Sue crisis is 19 56, 57, I believe.

1092
00:51:51,855 --> 00:51:53,895
Uh, but it's still the most
powerful country in the world.

1093
00:51:54,015 --> 00:51:58,335
And I wanna, this is about the next
30 years, and I just think that,

1094
00:51:58,395 --> 00:52:03,060
um, I. Not to be glib, but in this
particular case, I think it does

1095
00:52:03,060 --> 00:52:05,340
help that geography is what it is.

1096
00:52:05,640 --> 00:52:09,600
Uh, to give Peter Zion the point, you
know, it is surrounded by two oceans.

1097
00:52:09,600 --> 00:52:12,390
That is absolutely correct, and
it's really far from everywhere.

1098
00:52:12,960 --> 00:52:16,440
Um, technology is narrowing
that geographical gap,

1099
00:52:16,440 --> 00:52:17,970
cybersecurity, other issues.

1100
00:52:17,970 --> 00:52:22,200
Obviously we all agree with that, but
he has a lot of natural resources, and

1101
00:52:22,200 --> 00:52:27,630
most importantly, even at its darkest
moments, it does rediscover itself.

1102
00:52:27,630 --> 00:52:31,200
That is kind of the beauty of the
American Democratic experiment.

1103
00:52:31,770 --> 00:52:34,680
Uh, many people who are losing their
mind about Donald Trump today should

1104
00:52:34,680 --> 00:52:40,650
just read more about 1971, honestly, and
see how dark that period of time was.

1105
00:52:40,650 --> 00:52:43,710
Or just watch some movies
that were made in that period.

1106
00:52:43,710 --> 00:52:47,490
I mean, they're all dark and rainy
and depressed and everybody's sad and,

1107
00:52:48,030 --> 00:52:52,440
you know, like doesn't wear deodorant
and like, you know, just lots of like.

1108
00:52:52,815 --> 00:52:56,085
Bad cars and dark, dark themes.

1109
00:52:56,205 --> 00:52:59,325
And so what I would say is that, yeah,
I would pick United States of America.

1110
00:52:59,355 --> 00:53:01,815
I don't even think we'd really
talk about it, but US is the most

1111
00:53:01,815 --> 00:53:02,865
powerful country in the world.

1112
00:53:03,375 --> 00:53:05,565
Uh, it's head and shoulders
above everyone else.

1113
00:53:05,565 --> 00:53:07,875
And as I always say, that
doesn't make you a hegemon.

1114
00:53:07,935 --> 00:53:08,745
To be a hegemon.

1115
00:53:08,745 --> 00:53:12,015
To be unipolar, you have to be
head, shoulder, torso, hips.

1116
00:53:13,575 --> 00:53:15,045
That's not the case anymore.

1117
00:53:15,585 --> 00:53:15,645
Yeah.

1118
00:53:15,645 --> 00:53:16,515
But it may be in the future.

1119
00:53:16,575 --> 00:53:16,634
Jacob Shapiro: Yeah.

1120
00:53:17,865 --> 00:53:18,795
Yeah, I, I'm with you.

1121
00:53:18,810 --> 00:53:21,765
I, I, it's not just that the United
States can't do things, uh, make people

1122
00:53:21,765 --> 00:53:23,175
do things with a phone call anymore.

1123
00:53:23,415 --> 00:53:25,215
I mean, we talked about the
Houthis at the very beginning.

1124
00:53:25,215 --> 00:53:27,615
Apparently the Houthis shot down drones.

1125
00:53:27,615 --> 00:53:30,735
They got close to shooting down an F 35,
if you believe some of the reporting.

1126
00:53:30,735 --> 00:53:34,665
So like part of the, the sea change
in, in, you know, us, uh, posture

1127
00:53:34,665 --> 00:53:37,755
towards the Houthis was about not even
being able to do what, you know, the

1128
00:53:37,755 --> 00:53:41,145
US did to the Houthis under, or excuse
me, not to the Houthis, but to a, an

1129
00:53:41,145 --> 00:53:44,565
Iranian threat to Persian Gulf shipping
in the late 19, I believe it was.

1130
00:53:44,715 --> 00:53:45,555
Was that Reagan or Bush?

1131
00:53:45,555 --> 00:53:47,985
I can't remember which one it
was, but the late Reagan 1980s.

1132
00:53:47,985 --> 00:53:49,695
But to your point, operat,
I als I also praying.

1133
00:53:50,175 --> 00:53:50,355
Yeah.

1134
00:53:50,355 --> 00:53:51,555
So sorry, praying Mantis.

1135
00:53:51,555 --> 00:53:51,675
Yeah.

1136
00:53:51,675 --> 00:53:54,555
But I also had the US number one, even,
even though I say all the things that

1137
00:53:54,555 --> 00:53:59,745
you do, um, and I, my guess is that
our first two picks will be the same

1138
00:53:59,745 --> 00:54:01,185
and then things might get interesting.

1139
00:54:01,605 --> 00:54:04,935
Um, but my second pick is
gonna be, um, I'll, I'll take

1140
00:54:04,935 --> 00:54:06,855
China number two on the board.

1141
00:54:07,620 --> 00:54:09,359
Um, I think that's also pretty clear.

1142
00:54:09,660 --> 00:54:12,330
Um, and I think the greatest threat
to our multipolar thesis, and I say

1143
00:54:12,330 --> 00:54:15,720
that all the time, is that it we're
really headed towards another bipolar

1144
00:54:15,720 --> 00:54:18,720
world where it's the US on the one
side and China on the other side.

1145
00:54:19,080 --> 00:54:21,299
Um, China has huge problems.

1146
00:54:21,299 --> 00:54:22,799
It has structural economic problems.

1147
00:54:22,799 --> 00:54:25,740
It has hundreds of millions of, you
know, impoverished peasants that

1148
00:54:25,740 --> 00:54:29,370
need to enjoy enrichment that the
coastal cities have enjoyed thus far.

1149
00:54:29,730 --> 00:54:33,900
Um, it has resource constraints, so it,
for the first time in Chinese history,

1150
00:54:33,900 --> 00:54:35,279
it can't feed its own population.

1151
00:54:35,279 --> 00:54:40,109
It has to go out and import, you know,
food and energy and capital and technology

1152
00:54:40,109 --> 00:54:41,069
and all these other different things.

1153
00:54:41,069 --> 00:54:45,029
So there's lots of different challenges
that China has, but, uh, you know,

1154
00:54:45,089 --> 00:54:48,299
don't put me in the category of any
of these people who have been, you

1155
00:54:48,299 --> 00:54:51,569
know, your Gordon Changs or your Peter
Hans who have been predicting the

1156
00:54:51,569 --> 00:54:53,370
imminent collapse of China for decades.

1157
00:54:53,400 --> 00:54:56,069
Which is to your point, like, you know,
if you, if you're worried about the

1158
00:54:56,069 --> 00:54:59,310
United States, go back, watch the 1970s,
could say the same thing about China.

1159
00:54:59,549 --> 00:55:01,350
Go back to like the um.

1160
00:55:01,875 --> 00:55:05,384
The cultural revolution, or go back to
the, the famines that Mao caused with

1161
00:55:05,384 --> 00:55:07,754
some of his, uh, disastrous policies.

1162
00:55:07,754 --> 00:55:10,694
Even go back to the demographic
decline that people were predicting

1163
00:55:10,694 --> 00:55:12,345
for China in the 1980s, 1990s.

1164
00:55:12,674 --> 00:55:14,625
This is the country in the
world that makes things.

1165
00:55:14,834 --> 00:55:16,964
It's the manufacturing heart of the world.

1166
00:55:16,964 --> 00:55:19,845
All of that expertise,
all of that human capital.

1167
00:55:20,174 --> 00:55:23,834
Um, it's positioned geographically like
it's going to be here for the long haul.

1168
00:55:24,194 --> 00:55:27,044
Uh, maybe it's not the Chinese
Communist Party, like it could be a

1169
00:55:27,044 --> 00:55:30,854
soft sort of revolution and some, some
other sort of regime gets ushered in.

1170
00:55:30,854 --> 00:55:33,254
Like, I'm not wedded to it being
necessarily the current regime.

1171
00:55:33,254 --> 00:55:35,805
I think it will be the current regime,
but I'm not currently wedded to that.

1172
00:55:35,805 --> 00:55:39,464
But I don't think we're gonna go back
to like a warring states period where

1173
00:55:39,464 --> 00:55:42,495
the different regions of China will
be fighting each other and different

1174
00:55:42,495 --> 00:55:45,225
regions around, or different countries
around it will go take points.

1175
00:55:45,225 --> 00:55:49,484
Like I think China is very clearly the
number two and probably, you know, 30

1176
00:55:49,484 --> 00:55:53,895
years from now, probably nipping on
the heels of, of US power as, as being

1177
00:55:53,895 --> 00:55:55,575
the first in that multipolar world.

1178
00:55:56,745 --> 00:55:59,115
Marko: I think the technological
innovation that's happening

1179
00:55:59,115 --> 00:56:01,725
in China is endogenous today.

1180
00:56:02,145 --> 00:56:04,005
It's not copied anymore.

1181
00:56:04,005 --> 00:56:05,505
I think that was the nineties.

1182
00:56:05,505 --> 00:56:06,795
That was the early two thousands.

1183
00:56:06,885 --> 00:56:09,285
They are now creating
new innovative things.

1184
00:56:09,345 --> 00:56:12,885
And so, and you know, by the way,
it's not just military dual use stuff.

1185
00:56:12,885 --> 00:56:16,185
It's like stuff like payment
systems here in America.

1186
00:56:16,185 --> 00:56:21,705
I mean, I still write physical
checks, you know, like, and, and I

1187
00:56:21,705 --> 00:56:25,635
remember, uh, uh, my good friend who
worked with me, um, at my previous

1188
00:56:25,635 --> 00:56:26,955
job, he would always like joke.

1189
00:56:26,955 --> 00:56:29,865
He was like, he had to write a check
'cause he lived here in Santa Monica.

1190
00:56:29,865 --> 00:56:30,795
He was like, what is this?

1191
00:56:31,545 --> 00:56:34,425
You guys don't have like
instant payment solutions.

1192
00:56:34,425 --> 00:56:35,745
Like, this is America, you know?

1193
00:56:35,745 --> 00:56:37,305
So, uh, I agree with you.

1194
00:56:37,305 --> 00:56:38,535
I think China is second.

1195
00:56:38,595 --> 00:56:41,055
This is the one of those where
demographics is real problem.

1196
00:56:41,565 --> 00:56:42,585
You know, like, yes.

1197
00:56:43,365 --> 00:56:45,585
Chinese demographics are not great.

1198
00:56:45,795 --> 00:56:50,595
The problem is that it could stall their
GDP per capita, but it could also actually

1199
00:56:50,595 --> 00:56:53,775
help maintain some upward trajectory.

1200
00:56:54,075 --> 00:57:00,165
If GDP continues to grow at even a
three to 5% pace as the per capita part

1201
00:57:00,315 --> 00:57:02,505
narrows, your wealth could actually Yeah,

1202
00:57:03,134 --> 00:57:05,055
Jacob Shapiro: just to keep it And, and
I'm glad you say that 'cause because I

1203
00:57:05,055 --> 00:57:08,505
have two rejoinder to the demographic,
uh, argument on China if you think

1204
00:57:08,505 --> 00:57:10,215
the demographic argument is operative.

1205
00:57:10,245 --> 00:57:14,025
Okay, but then Japan is gonna collapse
first and so is South Korea and

1206
00:57:14,025 --> 00:57:15,465
so are a bunch of European states.

1207
00:57:15,615 --> 00:57:18,345
So it doesn't make sense to say
China's got the bad demographics, but

1208
00:57:18,345 --> 00:57:19,634
all these others are gonna be okay.

1209
00:57:19,665 --> 00:57:19,875
No.

1210
00:57:19,875 --> 00:57:22,215
Like these other countries are
gonna hit the, the bug that are

1211
00:57:22,215 --> 00:57:23,235
gonna hit the windshield first.

1212
00:57:23,445 --> 00:57:27,375
The other thing is that China has
hundreds of millions of people, I

1213
00:57:27,375 --> 00:57:30,105
already referenced them, who are
impoverished living in the interior.

1214
00:57:30,480 --> 00:57:33,779
So most countries don't have hundreds
of millions of people that they could

1215
00:57:33,779 --> 00:57:36,390
bring into the middle class to increase
consumption and things like that.

1216
00:57:36,390 --> 00:57:39,029
So are you gonna get a baby boom
in China over the next 10 years?

1217
00:57:39,270 --> 00:57:39,660
No.

1218
00:57:39,660 --> 00:57:42,569
But if you could redistribute income
to those hundreds of millions of poor

1219
00:57:42,569 --> 00:57:46,170
people and have them buying made in
China, air conditioners and everything

1220
00:57:46,170 --> 00:57:50,520
else, then you get the equivalent of
that consumption boost as a result.

1221
00:57:50,520 --> 00:57:54,480
So if they handle the macro correctly,
it's not like Japan has an interior where

1222
00:57:54,480 --> 00:57:58,170
it can go find 200 million poor people
that it can get to consume things like

1223
00:57:58,170 --> 00:58:00,060
most countries don't have that relevance.

1224
00:58:00,240 --> 00:58:02,609
And the other thing I wanna say
here is that demographics, you said

1225
00:58:02,609 --> 00:58:05,819
it's a double-edged sword, it's
also a static present indicator.

1226
00:58:06,180 --> 00:58:07,620
Like, you know, we're fighting linearity.

1227
00:58:07,799 --> 00:58:11,819
You have, we have no clue what
decisions Chinese families are gonna

1228
00:58:11,819 --> 00:58:15,029
make and how many babies they're
gonna have 15 and 20 years from now.

1229
00:58:15,240 --> 00:58:18,270
If the Chinese government comes out and
says, there is now a three child policy.

1230
00:58:18,615 --> 00:58:22,065
Maybe they'll have a huge demographic
boom, 20 years from now, maybe

1231
00:58:22,065 --> 00:58:24,855
the Chinese people will get more
optimistic and start having more kids

1232
00:58:24,855 --> 00:58:27,315
may, you know, there's a whole bunch
of different opportunities there.

1233
00:58:27,315 --> 00:58:31,515
So I think we can point to demographics as
saying this is a big issue and it requires

1234
00:58:31,515 --> 00:58:36,465
focusing on everything from robotics
to internet of things, to enriching

1235
00:58:36,465 --> 00:58:38,415
the interior of China, et cetera.

1236
00:58:38,715 --> 00:58:42,255
But the idea that we're gonna project
the decisions that a billion people

1237
00:58:42,255 --> 00:58:45,315
are gonna make about how many children
they're gonna have, like, I don't

1238
00:58:45,315 --> 00:58:47,145
have the hubris to, to make that call.

1239
00:58:47,145 --> 00:58:49,425
And I think we've seen that, you
know, there are ways around it and

1240
00:58:49,425 --> 00:58:51,735
more ways around it for China than
there are for other countries.

1241
00:58:51,765 --> 00:58:51,945
Okay.

1242
00:58:52,035 --> 00:58:52,275
Sorry.

1243
00:58:53,925 --> 00:58:54,495
Marko: No, it's all good.

1244
00:58:54,555 --> 00:58:57,705
Okay, so, uh, I'm gonna do
something now that's unfair.

1245
00:58:57,705 --> 00:59:06,195
I'm gonna take basically 1, 2, 3,
4, 5, 5 countries off the board.

1246
00:59:07,065 --> 00:59:07,815
Jacob Shapiro: I was wondering.

1247
00:59:07,875 --> 00:59:08,685
Okay, go ahead.

1248
00:59:09,044 --> 00:59:11,535
Marko: I'm gonna take the EMU five.

1249
00:59:11,805 --> 00:59:15,765
So this is the top five countries
in the European Monetary Union.

1250
00:59:16,484 --> 00:59:18,315
Uh, just let's call it Western Europe.

1251
00:59:18,404 --> 00:59:22,035
Uh, I don't wanna call it the EU 'cause
it's not, uh, that will be also unfair.

1252
00:59:22,035 --> 00:59:26,265
So I'm gonna take Germany, France,
Italy, Spain, and the Netherlands.

1253
00:59:26,294 --> 00:59:27,015
Off the board.

1254
00:59:27,075 --> 00:59:28,725
We are talking about the next 30 years.

1255
00:59:29,774 --> 00:59:32,835
I believe, I conviction view
that Europe will become a

1256
00:59:32,835 --> 00:59:35,355
confederation, not a federation.

1257
00:59:35,415 --> 00:59:37,305
United States of Europe will never happen.

1258
00:59:37,335 --> 00:59:40,964
If that is your mark of success,
then you will disagree with me.

1259
00:59:41,415 --> 00:59:44,325
But I do think there are
alternatives to a federal union,

1260
00:59:44,895 --> 00:59:46,214
and one of them is Switzerland.

1261
00:59:46,515 --> 00:59:48,165
You know, it's, it's a confederation.

1262
00:59:48,524 --> 00:59:52,575
Um, the first iteration of the
United States of America, the

1263
00:59:52,634 --> 00:59:55,484
articles of Confederation was
going to be something similar.

1264
00:59:55,875 --> 00:59:59,145
Uh, obviously the United States
at the time was a very weak, weak

1265
00:59:59,625 --> 01:00:03,435
country, afraid that the United
Kingdom would come back, which it did.

1266
01:00:04,035 --> 01:00:06,254
And so it needed a federal entity.

1267
01:00:06,900 --> 01:00:07,860
Instead of a confederal.

1268
01:00:07,860 --> 01:00:08,970
I don't think Europe needs that.

1269
01:00:09,450 --> 01:00:11,880
Um, several things that
are going for Europe.

1270
01:00:11,880 --> 01:00:13,620
First demographics again.

1271
01:00:13,890 --> 01:00:16,170
Everybody thinks Europe
has terrible demographics.

1272
01:00:16,230 --> 01:00:19,170
This is false, and no,
not because of Syria.

1273
01:00:19,259 --> 01:00:22,770
Asylum seekers, for God's sake,
stop watching YouTube videos.

1274
01:00:23,370 --> 01:00:26,610
Europe is fine because it
has one of the greatest.

1275
01:00:26,640 --> 01:00:31,290
Western Europe has one of the
greatest heists in geopolitics.

1276
01:00:31,290 --> 01:00:32,850
It's called the EU labor market.

1277
01:00:33,930 --> 01:00:38,430
It allows somebody from Poland,
Bulgaria, Romania, to move to any

1278
01:00:38,430 --> 01:00:42,450
place in the EU and get a job,
which means that Western Europe gets

1279
01:00:42,450 --> 01:00:47,910
educated, ready to work families
to just show up and start working.

1280
01:00:48,029 --> 01:00:51,660
Now, the problem was that United
Kingdom stole most of these immigrants

1281
01:00:51,660 --> 01:00:53,850
because Eastern Europeans speak English.

1282
01:00:53,970 --> 01:00:55,110
They don't speak French or German.

1283
01:00:55,500 --> 01:00:59,160
But now that the UK has decided to
pull out a revolver and shoot itself

1284
01:00:59,160 --> 01:01:03,840
in the foot and depart the EU precisely
because of this one advantage.

1285
01:01:04,245 --> 01:01:08,385
Um, it can have fun trying to
find immigrants somewhere else.

1286
01:01:08,865 --> 01:01:09,945
Western Europe doesn't.

1287
01:01:10,005 --> 01:01:16,185
It has ready-made, educated,
hardworking eastern Europeans to suck

1288
01:01:16,185 --> 01:01:17,715
like a vampire from Eastern Europe.

1289
01:01:17,715 --> 01:01:21,585
So if you wanna pick Poland, if you
wanna pick an Eastern European country,

1290
01:01:21,585 --> 01:01:26,775
just beware that they are going to
struggle to keep their demographics,

1291
01:01:26,775 --> 01:01:28,845
which are already bad, stable.

1292
01:01:29,475 --> 01:01:33,135
Uh, so that takes care of the
usual reason people hate in

1293
01:01:33,135 --> 01:01:34,095
Europe, which is demographics.

1294
01:01:34,095 --> 01:01:35,175
The other one is technology.

1295
01:01:35,205 --> 01:01:40,035
Yes, China is obviously challenging,
uh, European manufacturing, but one

1296
01:01:40,035 --> 01:01:43,215
of the things I would never discount
is German ability to reinvent itself.

1297
01:01:43,755 --> 01:01:45,855
Germany reinvented itself numerous times.

1298
01:01:45,855 --> 01:01:47,205
It's not gonna de industrialize.

1299
01:01:47,655 --> 01:01:51,075
Uh, there's a lot of mythological
technological innovation that

1300
01:01:51,075 --> 01:01:55,455
only Germany has and uh, so
I'm gonna pick Western Europe.

1301
01:01:55,515 --> 01:01:58,395
I think that the reason the
world will remain multipolar.

1302
01:01:58,890 --> 01:01:59,850
Is because what?

1303
01:01:59,940 --> 01:02:04,530
Because Donald Trump has bestowed
upon Europe and also Vladimir Putin,

1304
01:02:04,920 --> 01:02:07,020
a reason to finally integrate.

1305
01:02:07,020 --> 01:02:09,210
As we talked before, you
know Jacob, I don't think

1306
01:02:09,210 --> 01:02:12,360
countries are born out of love.

1307
01:02:12,450 --> 01:02:14,130
I think countries are born out of fear.

1308
01:02:14,700 --> 01:02:19,470
And finally, I think Europeans have
sufficient fear to integrate further.

1309
01:02:19,590 --> 01:02:20,820
So I'm picking Western Europe.

1310
01:02:22,319 --> 01:02:23,730
Jacob Shapiro: I mean, you
gotta have a little bit of both.

1311
01:02:23,730 --> 01:02:27,360
You gotta have love of one's own, and
you do have to have, uh, fear of what

1312
01:02:27,360 --> 01:02:28,589
somebody else might do to your own.

1313
01:02:28,589 --> 01:02:30,690
In some sense, fear might actually
be the secondary because you're

1314
01:02:30,690 --> 01:02:33,660
afraid of what somebody might do to
the people that you truly do love.

1315
01:02:33,660 --> 01:02:36,720
So I think I would take the
more romantic, uh, sense there.

1316
01:02:36,930 --> 01:02:39,240
I want you to know, uh, I was really
struggling with what to do with

1317
01:02:39,240 --> 01:02:42,569
Europe and I, I disciplined myself
by saying I can't pick a block.

1318
01:02:42,569 --> 01:02:43,950
I, I have to have a single country.

1319
01:02:43,950 --> 01:02:47,490
And if, um, I would've had
France as my number three.

1320
01:02:47,634 --> 01:02:47,856
Oh, wow.

1321
01:02:48,029 --> 01:02:50,819
My number three choice was
France, just by itself.

1322
01:02:51,120 --> 01:02:51,180
Marko: Wow.

1323
01:02:51,750 --> 01:02:52,350
Jacob Shapiro: Trade value.

1324
01:02:52,350 --> 01:02:52,710
So like,

1325
01:02:52,980 --> 01:02:54,569
Marko: this is one of
those you're buying low.

1326
01:02:54,569 --> 01:02:55,770
Well done, well done.

1327
01:02:55,770 --> 01:02:56,009
Okay.

1328
01:02:56,009 --> 01:02:56,640
Well then well buying

1329
01:02:56,640 --> 01:02:59,130
Jacob Shapiro: low, they've got nukes,
they've got the military, they've got

1330
01:02:59,130 --> 01:03:00,480
the, but you know, you, you've taken them.

1331
01:03:00,480 --> 01:03:04,080
But I just want listeners to know, like,
even, even without the other four Wow.

1332
01:03:04,085 --> 01:03:05,339
Like I would've had France number three.

1333
01:03:05,339 --> 01:03:05,400
Wow.

1334
01:03:05,400 --> 01:03:06,450
Soft power and

1335
01:03:06,810 --> 01:03:07,110
Marko: wow.

1336
01:03:07,134 --> 01:03:09,360
I, I mean, I feel so
much, listen, just to.

1337
01:03:09,735 --> 01:03:13,545
Yes, I kind of cheated, but this
is about the next 30 years and

1338
01:03:13,545 --> 01:03:16,665
I have a high conviction view
that I'm picking for the future.

1339
01:03:16,665 --> 01:03:17,924
They will integrate further.

1340
01:03:17,924 --> 01:03:20,025
And the other thing I would
say is it makes it more fun.

1341
01:03:20,085 --> 01:03:22,725
'cause like you pick France,
I pick Germany, then we pick

1342
01:03:22,725 --> 01:03:23,805
Spain in Italy at some point.

1343
01:03:23,805 --> 01:03:24,134
Come on.

1344
01:03:24,134 --> 01:03:25,515
Like me, you know, let's go.

1345
01:03:25,695 --> 01:03:27,045
No, and it's right.

1346
01:03:28,154 --> 01:03:29,745
Jacob Shapiro: No, and and
cheating would've been taking

1347
01:03:29,745 --> 01:03:31,424
the EU 27, which you didn't do.

1348
01:03:31,424 --> 01:03:34,095
You took the EMU five
and said, confederation.

1349
01:03:34,095 --> 01:03:34,545
Strong word.

1350
01:03:34,545 --> 01:03:36,795
It's this block that you're
saying that it's, you're not like

1351
01:03:36,795 --> 01:03:38,325
extrapolating linearly from here.

1352
01:03:38,325 --> 01:03:39,345
So I think you're totally good.

1353
01:03:39,585 --> 01:03:41,985
But I just wanted to say that if,
if we had kept going just country

1354
01:03:41,985 --> 01:03:45,495
basis, like I would've, France even
by itself would've been my number

1355
01:03:45,495 --> 01:03:47,895
three, which I think would've been
a little controversial with those.

1356
01:03:47,895 --> 01:03:50,295
Off the board though, this is
where it starts to get really

1357
01:03:50,295 --> 01:03:52,125
interesting, like beyond these blocks.

1358
01:03:52,125 --> 01:03:53,415
Like, okay, what's next?

1359
01:03:53,415 --> 01:03:55,275
And I know, is it nukes versus this thing?

1360
01:03:55,665 --> 01:03:58,095
Marko: So you get the first
pick of the non-obvious.

1361
01:03:58,095 --> 01:03:59,775
I, although, I don't know,
I think it's pretty obvious.

1362
01:03:59,779 --> 01:04:02,595
And I, I know you Jacob, I think
I know who you're gonna pick.

1363
01:04:02,654 --> 01:04:03,315
But go ahead.

1364
01:04:03,525 --> 01:04:04,245
Jacob Shapiro: You think you do?

1365
01:04:04,634 --> 01:04:05,085
Okay.

1366
01:04:05,085 --> 01:04:06,134
I, I'm taking Turkey.

1367
01:04:06,495 --> 01:04:08,355
Marko: Oh, boom.

1368
01:04:08,355 --> 01:04:09,045
Nevermind.

1369
01:04:09,900 --> 01:04:10,830
Jacob Shapiro: It's nevermind.

1370
01:04:10,890 --> 01:04:11,190
All right.

1371
01:04:11,190 --> 01:04:11,550
Harrison,

1372
01:04:11,850 --> 01:04:12,835
Marko: Nico Harrison.

1373
01:04:15,780 --> 01:04:18,450
Jacob Shapiro: I don't think it's the
Nico Harrison move of the draft at all.

1374
01:04:18,660 --> 01:04:22,380
'cause precisely to your point, if
Western Europe does unify a little bit

1375
01:04:22,380 --> 01:04:26,940
more like that, if Russian power recedes
over the next 30 years as I expect it to,

1376
01:04:26,940 --> 01:04:30,390
if China and some of these other powers
do have problems, Iran is gonna spend

1377
01:04:30,390 --> 01:04:32,010
the next 30 years trying to catch up.

1378
01:04:32,040 --> 01:04:35,520
Who is the country at the center of this
Middle East that you're talking about?

1379
01:04:35,550 --> 01:04:39,270
Who is the one who's gonna have the Navy
that actually controls access to the

1380
01:04:39,270 --> 01:04:41,070
Mediterranean and to the Persian Gulf?

1381
01:04:41,190 --> 01:04:43,410
Who is the one that is already
stealing market share from the

1382
01:04:43,410 --> 01:04:44,700
Europeans on manufacturing?

1383
01:04:44,730 --> 01:04:47,550
Who is going to dominate
the Black Sea Basin and your

1384
01:04:47,550 --> 01:04:49,110
Balkan homelands in the future?

1385
01:04:49,340 --> 01:04:50,330
This is Turkey.

1386
01:04:50,540 --> 01:04:51,800
This is not any other country.

1387
01:04:51,800 --> 01:04:55,250
This is the rise of the Neo Ottoman
Empire over the next 30 years.

1388
01:04:55,640 --> 01:04:59,330
Probably the strongest military
in NATO outside of the us.

1389
01:04:59,330 --> 01:05:01,550
Like maybe France has something to
say because of nukes, but if you're

1390
01:05:01,550 --> 01:05:05,030
just thinking about military spending
and capability and deployments and

1391
01:05:05,030 --> 01:05:08,810
things like that, I'll take the new
Ottoman Empire at the heart of the

1392
01:05:08,810 --> 01:05:10,730
Mediterranean in this multipolar world.

1393
01:05:10,760 --> 01:05:14,030
'cause this Mediterranean powers do
very well when they're controlling these

1394
01:05:14,030 --> 01:05:15,500
trading lanes at the center of the world.

1395
01:05:16,620 --> 01:05:19,950
Marko: Yeah, I think one of the things,
uh, that's a knock on Turkey is, uh,

1396
01:05:20,009 --> 01:05:23,790
you know, complete and utter lack
of, uh, endogenous energy production.

1397
01:05:23,790 --> 01:05:26,160
But I think technological
innovation is important.

1398
01:05:26,550 --> 01:05:29,430
There's nuclear power, there's,
uh, alternatives, there's

1399
01:05:29,430 --> 01:05:30,450
all sorts of other things.

1400
01:05:30,810 --> 01:05:31,605
Uh, it's also, uh, and

1401
01:05:32,610 --> 01:05:34,560
Jacob Shapiro: there's a lot and, and
there's an awful lot of gas offshore, and

1402
01:05:34,620 --> 01:05:36,480
the Black Sea Basin is also open to them.

1403
01:05:36,480 --> 01:05:36,660
So,

1404
01:05:36,660 --> 01:05:39,660
Marko: and there's a awful lot
of potential for Iraq to boost

1405
01:05:39,660 --> 01:05:43,710
its oil consumption if somebody
bestows it with stability, which

1406
01:05:43,710 --> 01:05:44,759
is what you're getting at you.

1407
01:05:44,759 --> 01:05:45,180
No, no, no.

1408
01:05:45,180 --> 01:05:46,320
I, I think, but that's a knock.

1409
01:05:46,320 --> 01:05:47,550
You know, that's a knock on Turkey.

1410
01:05:47,820 --> 01:05:50,940
The other knock on Turkey was
always like, domestic technological

1411
01:05:50,940 --> 01:05:54,750
innovation is kind of terrible and
trash, quite frankly, but not anymore.

1412
01:05:55,424 --> 01:05:58,484
We know the turkeys, for example,
world Leader in Drone Technology.

1413
01:05:58,575 --> 01:06:00,134
Uh, everybody talks about Iran.

1414
01:06:00,254 --> 01:06:01,815
No, no, it's Turkey.

1415
01:06:02,115 --> 01:06:06,105
Russia just has access to the
Iranian drones, but those are trash.

1416
01:06:06,435 --> 01:06:09,944
Turkey has actually, um, you know,
I follow military spending a lot

1417
01:06:09,944 --> 01:06:11,174
'cause I think it's a great indicator.

1418
01:06:11,174 --> 01:06:15,045
As I said, uh, it's, it's a sign of
geopolitical power and Turkey, along

1419
01:06:15,045 --> 01:06:19,754
with South Korea, is one of the world's
largest, uh, movers up the, the chain.

1420
01:06:19,875 --> 01:06:23,205
So I think this is a surprising pick,
but it's about the next 30 years.

1421
01:06:23,565 --> 01:06:27,225
And I think that, uh, you know, I
respect this, I respect this pick.

1422
01:06:27,225 --> 01:06:31,754
It's, it's got, I, I mean,
how do I push back on it?

1423
01:06:31,754 --> 01:06:36,134
I mean, you know, I don't
really want to push back on it

1424
01:06:36,435 --> 01:06:37,815
because I think it's, it's cool.

1425
01:06:37,964 --> 01:06:38,805
It's a great pick.

1426
01:06:38,805 --> 01:06:43,125
And by the way, we didn't get a chance
to talk about PKK and the government.

1427
01:06:43,154 --> 01:06:43,245
Mm-hmm.

1428
01:06:43,575 --> 01:06:47,265
You know, uh, that's, that's a really
positive development for Turkey from

1429
01:06:47,265 --> 01:06:48,855
a domestic stability perspective.

1430
01:06:48,855 --> 01:06:48,915
Yeah.

1431
01:06:48,915 --> 01:06:48,945
Yeah.

1432
01:06:49,635 --> 01:06:50,775
So, you know, it's

1433
01:06:50,775 --> 01:06:52,455
Jacob Shapiro: like, yeah,
and, and, and, and Syria too.

1434
01:06:52,455 --> 01:06:56,175
Like it's the combo of the SDF basically
agreeing to be part of the Syrian

1435
01:06:56,175 --> 01:06:59,925
state, the PKK laying down its arms,
and you've got Syria at this Riyadh

1436
01:06:59,925 --> 01:07:02,955
summit or hanging out with Saudi
Arabia like President Trump, basically

1437
01:07:02,955 --> 01:07:05,685
accepting the Syrian government saying
you need better ties with Israel.

1438
01:07:05,685 --> 01:07:07,995
Like all of this is going a
according to plan to Turkey.

1439
01:07:08,025 --> 01:07:11,745
The less they can worry about the Kurds in
their backyard, the more they can project

1440
01:07:11,745 --> 01:07:15,705
power into the Black Sea, into North
Africa, down the horn, into the Balkans.

1441
01:07:15,705 --> 01:07:17,205
Like, I like the way
the map looks for them.

1442
01:07:17,205 --> 01:07:22,965
I think the biggest shot to the argument
is, um, Erdogan's power base and what

1443
01:07:22,965 --> 01:07:24,795
happens when Erdogan is no longer there.

1444
01:07:24,855 --> 01:07:28,875
And does Turkish politics revert to
this secular versus religious clash?

1445
01:07:28,875 --> 01:07:32,295
And like, does it get mired in this
own domestic politics inflation

1446
01:07:32,295 --> 01:07:35,445
trap that hap that has happened to
Turkey several times over the past 40

1447
01:07:35,445 --> 01:07:35,535
Marko: years.

1448
01:07:35,535 --> 01:07:39,225
But listen, listen, I think macroeconomics
we're picking for the 30 years, you know,

1449
01:07:39,225 --> 01:07:44,355
like eventually, eventually, macroeconomic
policy tends to move towards, uh, sanity.

1450
01:07:44,415 --> 01:07:49,005
Uh, it just does and part of the
reason is that voters go, go ahead.

1451
01:07:49,005 --> 01:07:49,215
Sorry.

1452
01:07:50,300 --> 01:07:50,835
Jacob Shapiro: No, no, no, no.

1453
01:07:50,925 --> 01:07:51,165
Sorry.

1454
01:07:51,165 --> 01:07:51,855
You, you finish it up.

1455
01:07:52,275 --> 01:07:53,085
Marko: No, just voters.

1456
01:07:53,085 --> 01:07:55,485
Voters eventually learn
what's stupid, you know?

1457
01:07:55,485 --> 01:07:57,585
So, um, but yeah, go ahead

1458
01:07:58,515 --> 01:08:00,404
Jacob Shapiro: and just to say,
remember my ultimate indicator

1459
01:08:00,404 --> 01:08:04,035
was can this country make other
countries do what it wants them to do?

1460
01:08:04,365 --> 01:08:07,575
And I think by that metric, Turkey
can do lots of things, whether it's

1461
01:08:07,575 --> 01:08:10,455
with migrants, whether it's with
closing different sea lanes around

1462
01:08:10,455 --> 01:08:13,275
it, whether controlling things in
the Middle East, like I, I think that

1463
01:08:13,275 --> 01:08:14,595
Turkey has, has a lot going for there.

1464
01:08:14,625 --> 01:08:14,865
Okay.

1465
01:08:14,925 --> 01:08:15,345
Your pick.

1466
01:08:16,064 --> 01:08:16,274
Marko: Okay.

1467
01:08:16,274 --> 01:08:22,185
So, uh, I mean, I wanna pick someone else,
but I think we can't ignore this country.

1468
01:08:22,245 --> 01:08:24,705
Um, I thought you were gonna
pick this one because I always

1469
01:08:24,705 --> 01:08:27,255
think of you as a Indian no file.

1470
01:08:28,035 --> 01:08:28,365
Mm-hmm.

1471
01:08:28,515 --> 01:08:28,785
Okay.

1472
01:08:29,115 --> 01:08:31,515
So I don't wanna let it
slip beyond top five.

1473
01:08:31,545 --> 01:08:34,005
'cause first and foremost, we're
gonna get so much hate mail.

1474
01:08:34,035 --> 01:08:37,649
There's a lot of people in India and
I. You know, they're gonna, they're

1475
01:08:37,649 --> 01:08:40,559
gonna send us hate bail, and I just
don't wanna deal with it, number one.

1476
01:08:40,800 --> 01:08:43,349
Number two, it is like the
largest population in the world,

1477
01:08:43,349 --> 01:08:45,059
which is not like insignificant.

1478
01:08:45,719 --> 01:08:49,260
And also, even if there's some sort
of an economic crisis because of its

1479
01:08:49,260 --> 01:08:53,340
demographics, which everybody just louds,
is a positive, it is not a positive.

1480
01:08:54,090 --> 01:08:58,559
Um, I think that ultimately policy
in India will strive towards

1481
01:08:58,559 --> 01:09:00,809
competence even if there's a crisis.

1482
01:09:00,840 --> 01:09:03,960
Uh, I worry about AI
replacing its service sector.

1483
01:09:04,349 --> 01:09:08,309
I think AI is going to impact
India extremely negatively.

1484
01:09:09,029 --> 01:09:14,460
Um, a lot of its service sector is geared
towards, um, the kind of technological

1485
01:09:14,460 --> 01:09:16,620
services that AI could re replace.

1486
01:09:17,099 --> 01:09:20,939
Uh, but what we're starting to
see is manufacturing start to

1487
01:09:20,939 --> 01:09:23,040
slowly, very slowly move to India.

1488
01:09:23,069 --> 01:09:26,729
And I do think that it, it will be a
country that can't really be ignored.

1489
01:09:27,210 --> 01:09:29,519
Um, so I'm gonna take it as fifth.

1490
01:09:29,550 --> 01:09:29,790
Now.

1491
01:09:29,790 --> 01:09:32,880
Please note it has fallen to fifth.

1492
01:09:33,794 --> 01:09:36,644
I think most people would've
clearly thought it's top three.

1493
01:09:36,644 --> 01:09:39,134
It's the best performing market
over the last five years.

1494
01:09:39,794 --> 01:09:43,724
I'm picking it because I think it cannot
be ignored over the next 30, 30 years.

1495
01:09:43,724 --> 01:09:45,464
I don't want us to be too controversial.

1496
01:09:46,154 --> 01:09:49,964
I think I'm playing the role
of Reow here saying you can't

1497
01:09:49,964 --> 01:09:52,184
ignore size, you know, come on.

1498
01:09:52,184 --> 01:09:56,804
Like, I think this is a seven foot
five giant that can, uh, potentially

1499
01:09:56,804 --> 01:09:58,035
develop a three point shot.

1500
01:09:58,035 --> 01:10:00,075
And I just think we have
to give it, you know, that

1501
01:10:01,155 --> 01:10:01,485
Jacob Shapiro: Yeah.

1502
01:10:01,514 --> 01:10:03,495
Quantity has a quality all of its own.

1503
01:10:03,495 --> 01:10:06,764
But is it Victor Wema or is it Man Bowl?

1504
01:10:07,094 --> 01:10:08,804
Like It could, it could be either one.

1505
01:10:08,804 --> 01:10:09,405
There might be Rick.

1506
01:10:09,405 --> 01:10:10,275
There's a large Delta it,

1507
01:10:10,334 --> 01:10:13,184
Marko: listen, I think it might
be Rick Smith, you know, and Rick

1508
01:10:13,184 --> 01:10:16,875
Smiths took the Indiana Pacers to
the finals and he lost the six games

1509
01:10:16,875 --> 01:10:18,044
to one of the greatest teams ever.

1510
01:10:18,044 --> 01:10:22,875
But like, so, you know, like I
just think that we would get too

1511
01:10:22,875 --> 01:10:24,884
fancy by dropping it below fifth.

1512
01:10:24,884 --> 01:10:26,294
I have somebody I like more.

1513
01:10:26,985 --> 01:10:29,715
Has a higher delta than
India over the next five.

1514
01:10:29,715 --> 01:10:32,835
Mm. But because you didn't take it,
I had to take it, you know, I thought

1515
01:10:32,835 --> 01:10:33,780
you would take it at four and I, and

1516
01:10:33,780 --> 01:10:35,894
Jacob Shapiro: I had no, I had it at five.

1517
01:10:35,894 --> 01:10:39,675
Like I was really hanging and hawing
between India and, and Turkey.

1518
01:10:39,675 --> 01:10:42,735
And, and I really, it came down to
that question of will this country make

1519
01:10:42,735 --> 01:10:44,205
other countries do what it wants to do?

1520
01:10:44,205 --> 01:10:46,845
And I think this is the thing that
India doesn't have, and you've seen

1521
01:10:46,845 --> 01:10:48,554
this with this India, Pakistan war.

1522
01:10:48,585 --> 01:10:50,865
It can't even get people
on its side with Kashmir.

1523
01:10:51,224 --> 01:10:54,465
Um, India has so many internal
problems that it needs to flesh out.

1524
01:10:54,465 --> 01:10:57,735
And it might start, it might take 30
years to do so, and in 30 year, like if

1525
01:10:57,735 --> 01:11:00,915
this has been a 50 year time horizon,
it might have been a different question.

1526
01:11:00,915 --> 01:11:04,514
But if we're just thinking about 30
and all the things India has to fix

1527
01:11:04,514 --> 01:11:07,635
that it hasn't fixed yet, and its
ability to project power beyond the

1528
01:11:07,635 --> 01:11:11,835
subcontinent, like all plus there's
other things with climate change and

1529
01:11:11,835 --> 01:11:14,775
wa like all that stuff sort of says
to me, okay, like they're not gonna be

1530
01:11:14,775 --> 01:11:16,934
able to force people, um, to do things.

1531
01:11:17,385 --> 01:11:17,865
Um.

1532
01:11:18,480 --> 01:11:20,670
This, I hate, I hate having
to make this next pick.

1533
01:11:20,730 --> 01:11:23,849
'cause you're sort of caught
between the declining powers of

1534
01:11:23,849 --> 01:11:25,800
like your Russias and your UKs.

1535
01:11:25,800 --> 01:11:27,900
So they've got some of the fancy
things that we would say are

1536
01:11:27,900 --> 01:11:29,460
good indicators for power today.

1537
01:11:29,460 --> 01:11:31,440
But will they really be there in 30 years?

1538
01:11:31,440 --> 01:11:34,050
Will they even exist in their
current form in 30 years?

1539
01:11:34,559 --> 01:11:40,019
But then you've got like your Brazils,
which okay, like Dugal said, or Dugal

1540
01:11:40,019 --> 01:11:42,389
has reported to have said, I don't think
he actually said it, that Brazil is the

1541
01:11:42,389 --> 01:11:43,860
country of the future and always will be.

1542
01:11:43,860 --> 01:11:43,920
Yeah.

1543
01:11:43,920 --> 01:11:47,639
So I'll probably be picking Brazil 30
years from now for the exact same reasons.

1544
01:11:48,300 --> 01:11:51,960
Um, and I, I even want, you know, Japan
also in that declining power maybe,

1545
01:11:51,960 --> 01:11:53,309
I don't know, is it sort of in there?

1546
01:11:53,730 --> 01:11:56,250
Um, just to say I really struggled.

1547
01:11:56,250 --> 01:12:00,510
And I think that ultimately if we
go down to like forcing action, I,

1548
01:12:00,510 --> 01:12:04,050
I think I, I don't like this pick,
but I think I'm picking Russia.

1549
01:12:04,320 --> 01:12:05,790
I think I have to have Russia there.

1550
01:12:06,030 --> 01:12:06,090
Wow.

1551
01:12:06,180 --> 01:12:07,170
Marko: I'm surprised by that.

1552
01:12:08,339 --> 01:12:10,769
Jacob Shapiro: Yeah, I mean, I, I,
I'm struggling, but I'm thinking

1553
01:12:10,769 --> 01:12:13,799
about they're the second biggest
nuclear power in the world.

1554
01:12:14,160 --> 01:12:16,889
Um, they're gonna still be
able to exert influence.

1555
01:12:16,889 --> 01:12:19,589
I, I don't feel great about the
pick, so please, uh, tell me why.

1556
01:12:19,589 --> 01:12:21,450
I think that's more of
a Nico pick than Turkey.

1557
01:12:22,320 --> 01:12:24,330
Marko: No, uh, uh, I
would not have picked it.

1558
01:12:24,330 --> 01:12:27,030
I would've picked it in
the top, uh, 10, maybe 15.

1559
01:12:27,030 --> 01:12:31,500
But, uh, this is where I agree with, uh,
our former colleague in Fi, Peter Zion.

1560
01:12:31,500 --> 01:12:32,969
I think they have a lot of problems.

1561
01:12:33,150 --> 01:12:35,339
Demographics is not
necessarily one of them.

1562
01:12:35,940 --> 01:12:37,980
Um, I think it's a very large country.

1563
01:12:37,980 --> 01:12:41,519
I think that it needs to
consolidate much, much more.

1564
01:12:41,519 --> 01:12:47,400
I think that this is the one country where
I do worry about, um, centrifugal forces.

1565
01:12:47,790 --> 01:12:48,030
Right.

1566
01:12:48,030 --> 01:12:48,690
Is that correct?

1567
01:12:48,870 --> 01:12:49,889
Like, you know Yep.

1568
01:12:49,889 --> 01:12:50,190
Kind of.

1569
01:12:50,219 --> 01:12:50,460
Mm-hmm.

1570
01:12:50,790 --> 01:12:51,780
Tearing the place apart.

1571
01:12:51,780 --> 01:12:56,250
Without strong leadership, I think you're
gonna have, um, problems in the future.

1572
01:12:56,250 --> 01:12:59,309
I'm also, uh, concerned about
technological innovation.

1573
01:13:00,089 --> 01:13:02,835
I. Um, a lot of things that Russians
are very good at, like military

1574
01:13:02,835 --> 01:13:05,835
technology, other countries are
starting to nip at their heels.

1575
01:13:06,224 --> 01:13:10,394
Um, I think they need to have a period
of peace and security so they can

1576
01:13:10,394 --> 01:13:14,865
recenter on technological innovation,
on education, things like that.

1577
01:13:14,865 --> 01:13:15,885
And that hasn't happened.

1578
01:13:15,885 --> 01:13:19,575
In fact, there's been a brain train
outta Russia to places like Georgia

1579
01:13:19,605 --> 01:13:24,465
or Serbia or Armenia, and that's a
really big problem for the country and

1580
01:13:24,495 --> 01:13:26,325
I don't like it for the next 30 years.

1581
01:13:26,385 --> 01:13:29,474
Um, so this isn't a pure
demographic play at all.

1582
01:13:29,925 --> 01:13:32,715
Um, you know, we're willing to
deviate from that, but yeah.

1583
01:13:33,315 --> 01:13:36,045
Uh, I've got, I've got
concerns about Russia.

1584
01:13:36,105 --> 01:13:38,264
Um, so who am I gonna pick?

1585
01:13:38,325 --> 01:13:43,425
Um, so actually the country that comes
next on my list, I'm gonna skip it.

1586
01:13:43,875 --> 01:13:45,045
This is the quantitative one.

1587
01:13:45,495 --> 01:13:45,585
Mm-hmm.

1588
01:13:45,590 --> 01:13:46,695
And I'm gonna pick South Korea.

1589
01:13:48,165 --> 01:13:48,525
Hmm.

1590
01:13:49,184 --> 01:13:50,205
So South Korea may have the

1591
01:13:50,205 --> 01:13:50,804
Jacob Shapiro: interesting,

1592
01:13:51,135 --> 01:13:51,345
Marko: yeah.

1593
01:13:51,345 --> 01:13:53,625
South Korea may have the worst
demographics in the world.

1594
01:13:54,434 --> 01:13:54,945
Um.

1595
01:13:56,115 --> 01:13:56,655
Facts.

1596
01:13:56,745 --> 01:13:59,295
But what I like about South
Korea is a couple of things.

1597
01:13:59,295 --> 01:14:01,724
First of all, technological
innovation is clearly there.

1598
01:14:02,295 --> 01:14:05,115
Um, they are one of the world's
leaders in things that matter,

1599
01:14:05,264 --> 01:14:07,035
like chips, like semiconductors.

1600
01:14:07,094 --> 01:14:12,615
Um, they also do have an endogenous
military industry, and I've been noticing

1601
01:14:12,615 --> 01:14:16,005
more and more countries rely on South
Korea, specifically in Southeast Asia.

1602
01:14:16,545 --> 01:14:20,775
Um, so that's something Japan doesn't
really have, not to the same extent as

1603
01:14:20,775 --> 01:14:23,355
South Korea, mainly for political reasons.

1604
01:14:23,865 --> 01:14:25,875
Um, they're effectively a nuclear power.

1605
01:14:25,875 --> 01:14:27,344
If they wanted to, boom, it's done.

1606
01:14:27,375 --> 01:14:28,455
Like don't worry about it.

1607
01:14:28,605 --> 01:14:31,394
Um, and I like the fact
that they are, uh, fit.

1608
01:14:32,144 --> 01:14:34,665
I think the problem, the difference
between Japan and South Korea,

1609
01:14:34,665 --> 01:14:38,025
obviously Japan has doubled the
population, larger economy and so on.

1610
01:14:38,115 --> 01:14:42,915
The thing is though, I think Japan's
gotten a little bit lazy and I, I, I say

1611
01:14:42,915 --> 01:14:48,434
that because I think that South Korea has
been in much more of a, uh, antagonistic.

1612
01:14:48,434 --> 01:14:53,235
I. National security environment,
uh, and that's made them fitter.

1613
01:14:53,505 --> 01:14:56,625
They've been preparing for a
war a lot longer than Japan has.

1614
01:14:57,045 --> 01:15:01,755
Um, I also find that it's, uh, you
know, soft power is interesting.

1615
01:15:03,525 --> 01:15:05,955
It's not part of my rubric
at all, but I like it.

1616
01:15:06,315 --> 01:15:09,974
I like when countries have the
ability to make fun of themselves,

1617
01:15:10,155 --> 01:15:12,765
to create art that crosses cultures.

1618
01:15:13,215 --> 01:15:17,595
And no country has punched above
South Korea's ability to do that.

1619
01:15:17,595 --> 01:15:21,075
I mean, South Korea has absolutely
like crushed soft power.

1620
01:15:21,075 --> 01:15:24,705
So, um, on all of those, I,
I really like South Korea.

1621
01:15:24,735 --> 01:15:29,805
I think that innovation in robotics,
automation and AI are going to allow

1622
01:15:29,805 --> 01:15:32,655
them to overcome that demographic burden.

1623
01:15:33,135 --> 01:15:35,025
And so, yeah, I absolutely
love South Korea.

1624
01:15:35,025 --> 01:15:38,505
I think that they're going to be,
uh, one of the top 10 countries,

1625
01:15:39,015 --> 01:15:40,305
uh, in terms of geopolitics.

1626
01:15:40,305 --> 01:15:44,775
And so I actually picked them, uh, three
spots above my quantitative, uh, number.

1627
01:15:44,805 --> 01:15:46,035
They're actually 10 already.

1628
01:15:47,160 --> 01:15:47,700
Jacob Shapiro: Amazing.

1629
01:15:47,910 --> 01:15:51,180
I think the other thing that they have on
a 30 year time horizon is the potential

1630
01:15:51,180 --> 01:15:52,620
for reunification with the north.

1631
01:15:53,010 --> 01:15:55,200
Oh, I talked about China
demographics and hundreds of

1632
01:15:55,200 --> 01:15:56,580
millions of people in the interior.

1633
01:15:56,730 --> 01:15:56,820
Wow.

1634
01:15:56,820 --> 01:15:57,150
Like, yeah.

1635
01:15:57,150 --> 01:16:00,090
South Korea as it is today,
can't compete with Japan.

1636
01:16:00,090 --> 01:16:03,750
I'd take Japan today, but if you're
thinking about, oh, you reunify with the

1637
01:16:03,750 --> 01:16:07,950
north and and south on South Korea terms,
and South Korea gets to use that labor

1638
01:16:07,950 --> 01:16:09,600
base to do all these other sorts of, okay.

1639
01:16:09,600 --> 01:16:11,070
Like now I'm, I'm listening.

1640
01:16:11,070 --> 01:16:12,360
I think it's a speculative play.

1641
01:16:12,360 --> 01:16:15,120
I think it, it's a, it's either
a hundred or, or maybe a zero.

1642
01:16:15,570 --> 01:16:15,720
Marko: Yeah.

1643
01:16:15,720 --> 01:16:18,120
I mean, you're talking 80 million
people at that point, so that's,

1644
01:16:18,120 --> 01:16:18,960
that's a really good point.

1645
01:16:18,960 --> 01:16:19,200
All right.

1646
01:16:19,320 --> 01:16:19,740
Go ahead.

1647
01:16:19,860 --> 01:16:20,250
Number eight.

1648
01:16:20,724 --> 01:16:21,025
Jacob Shapiro: Alright.

1649
01:16:21,625 --> 01:16:21,804
Yeah.

1650
01:16:21,804 --> 01:16:23,425
'cause I have a hard stop in 11 minutes.

1651
01:16:23,425 --> 01:16:26,005
So May, should we do top 10, Marco
and do another 10, or should we

1652
01:16:26,005 --> 01:16:27,775
blitz through, uh, this next?

1653
01:16:27,775 --> 01:16:28,120
I think we can blitz through

1654
01:16:28,340 --> 01:16:29,785
Marko: and then maybe we do,
uh, take you think we can

1655
01:16:29,785 --> 01:16:30,264
Jacob Shapiro: blitz through?

1656
01:16:30,655 --> 01:16:31,014
Marko: I think so.

1657
01:16:31,045 --> 01:16:31,345
Jacob Shapiro: Okay.

1658
01:16:31,345 --> 01:16:35,005
Well, I'm not leaving Brazil off the board
any longer, so I'll take Brazil here.

1659
01:16:35,245 --> 01:16:39,775
I will project that Brazil replaces the
United States as a low cost producer

1660
01:16:39,775 --> 01:16:42,625
for a lot of the different agricultural
exports that are out there in the world.

1661
01:16:42,625 --> 01:16:45,625
I think from a food security basis,
people will be looking towards Brazil.

1662
01:16:45,625 --> 01:16:48,565
I think Brazil has, um,
a lot of innovation.

1663
01:16:48,625 --> 01:16:52,105
I mean, they're very early on in
this, but green shoots of innovation,

1664
01:16:52,105 --> 01:16:55,885
manufacturing capacity and also like
the United States oceans away from

1665
01:16:55,885 --> 01:16:59,275
enemies, has a, has a nice little
hemispheric and maybe dominate and push

1666
01:16:59,275 --> 01:17:01,885
back against the United States with,
I'll, I'll take Brazil at this point.

1667
01:17:01,915 --> 01:17:02,365
Off the board.

1668
01:17:03,325 --> 01:17:07,795
Marko: Alright, so my, my controversial,
uh, pick that I'll be accused of being a

1669
01:17:07,795 --> 01:17:11,184
homer, uh, is gonna be number nine Canada.

1670
01:17:13,105 --> 01:17:14,485
Oh, how nice.

1671
01:17:14,514 --> 01:17:14,635
Yeah.

1672
01:17:15,205 --> 01:17:16,705
I like Canada because it's uh, good

1673
01:17:16,705 --> 01:17:16,766
Jacob Shapiro: for Canada.

1674
01:17:17,325 --> 01:17:19,785
Marko: It's a hedge against
the us quite frankly.

1675
01:17:19,815 --> 01:17:23,745
Um, any hiccup by the US
will be a benefit for Canada.

1676
01:17:24,075 --> 01:17:30,255
From a brain, uh, drain perspective,
innovation, technology, um, it has

1677
01:17:30,345 --> 01:17:35,085
the most favorable actually geography,
especially as climate change becomes more

1678
01:17:35,085 --> 01:17:37,725
of an issue over the next th 30 years.

1679
01:17:37,725 --> 01:17:40,185
If you believe in climate
change, then it's also a hedge

1680
01:17:40,185 --> 01:17:41,775
against that because its growing.

1681
01:17:41,775 --> 01:17:43,755
Seasons are going to expand.

1682
01:17:43,785 --> 01:17:47,385
Yes, forest fires will happen more, but
you know, this is about big picture stuff.

1683
01:17:48,075 --> 01:17:51,285
Um, also I think that the
population growth is shocking.

1684
01:17:51,735 --> 01:17:53,205
Immigration has been huge.

1685
01:17:53,295 --> 01:17:55,185
Uh, now there's been
a backlash against it.

1686
01:17:55,305 --> 01:17:58,935
But, uh, as Canada builds out
infrastructure, you know, it has

1687
01:17:58,935 --> 01:18:02,865
an ability to basically accept an
endless amount of human beings.

1688
01:18:03,510 --> 01:18:06,750
This is a country with one of
the largest freshwater basins.

1689
01:18:06,780 --> 01:18:09,570
It can grow food for the
entire planet if it wanted to.

1690
01:18:10,110 --> 01:18:16,019
Um, and it has, you know, all the kind of
governance issues, like, think of Canada

1691
01:18:16,050 --> 01:18:21,480
as almost like a superpower with, you
just have, it's a turnkey superpower.

1692
01:18:22,050 --> 01:18:23,670
It has everything you need.

1693
01:18:24,480 --> 01:18:28,080
From sort of the Western
developer perspective, um, you

1694
01:18:28,080 --> 01:18:30,150
just need to put humans into it.

1695
01:18:30,630 --> 01:18:34,170
And so I think that Canada
is going to be a top, top 10

1696
01:18:34,170 --> 01:18:35,490
player over the next 10 years,

1697
01:18:37,620 --> 01:18:39,150
Jacob Shapiro: was not in my top 20.

1698
01:18:39,210 --> 01:18:41,880
So you can have them, uh,
which says everything.

1699
01:18:41,880 --> 01:18:42,450
Sorry, sorry.

1700
01:18:42,450 --> 01:18:42,900
Canada.

1701
01:18:43,350 --> 01:18:43,890
Um.

1702
01:18:44,590 --> 01:18:46,510
Coming in at number 10, who
I'll take off the board and

1703
01:18:46,510 --> 01:18:47,620
I'm gonna get shipped for this.

1704
01:18:47,830 --> 01:18:49,810
Uh, I will take Iran off the board now.

1705
01:18:49,810 --> 01:18:49,900
Wow.

1706
01:18:50,050 --> 01:18:53,800
Again, thinking on a 30 year time
horizon, a country that basically already

1707
01:18:53,800 --> 01:18:58,390
has nuclear weapons, uh, strategic
access to the Persian Gulf, lots of

1708
01:18:58,390 --> 01:19:02,440
different oil resources, uh, history of
projecting power into Central Asia, into

1709
01:19:02,440 --> 01:19:04,090
these other Shiite parts of the world.

1710
01:19:04,420 --> 01:19:08,680
Um, like maybe not your typical power,
but if we're thinking about a country

1711
01:19:08,680 --> 01:19:11,530
that can make other countries do things
like Iran has already shown, it can

1712
01:19:11,530 --> 01:19:15,070
be a focal point of decision making
even in its poultry state right now.

1713
01:19:15,070 --> 01:19:18,280
What happens 30 years from now when
there's a leadership transition,

1714
01:19:18,280 --> 01:19:20,980
when Iran is welcomed into the
family of nations once again,

1715
01:19:21,010 --> 01:19:22,840
like, again, 30 year time horizon.

1716
01:19:22,840 --> 01:19:26,140
I think I'll take Iran as a major
player, um, in that part of the world.

1717
01:19:27,340 --> 01:19:29,769
Marko: Alright, well, I think
that, uh, what I'm gonna do now,

1718
01:19:29,800 --> 01:19:30,850
that's a great pick by the way.

1719
01:19:30,850 --> 01:19:35,320
I've, I've, I've always been very,
uh, drawn to it as well, especially

1720
01:19:35,320 --> 01:19:39,250
if it, uh, um, moves away from
the current system of governance.

1721
01:19:39,250 --> 01:19:40,180
I think, uh, you know.

1722
01:19:40,680 --> 01:19:42,210
I think that's a fair point.

1723
01:19:42,300 --> 01:19:44,940
I think it's gonna have to
unleash the innovation and

1724
01:19:44,940 --> 01:19:46,500
entrepreneurship of its people.

1725
01:19:46,560 --> 01:19:50,070
And that requires it to discard
its current system of government.

1726
01:19:50,070 --> 01:19:52,710
And if that happens, honestly this is
gonna be the best pick of the draft.

1727
01:19:53,910 --> 01:19:54,000
Mm-hmm.

1728
01:19:54,720 --> 01:19:56,850
So at 10 Iran, great pick.

1729
01:19:56,970 --> 01:20:04,440
Um, the next one for me, uh, there's
a symbiotic gravitational pull, you

1730
01:20:04,440 --> 01:20:10,200
know, uh, and if you pick a Brazil, I
think that I have to pick Argentina.

1731
01:20:10,710 --> 01:20:14,880
I think that Brazil and
Argentina are going to advance.

1732
01:20:14,880 --> 01:20:18,360
I think what's happening in Argentina
is a good example of your Iran analogy.

1733
01:20:18,960 --> 01:20:24,780
Argentina, you can think of it as having
discarded its status system of garment.

1734
01:20:25,440 --> 01:20:29,820
Obviously I am projecting the
current pace of Malay reforms

1735
01:20:30,420 --> 01:20:32,220
as continuing and benefiting.

1736
01:20:32,250 --> 01:20:35,730
And so I think that, uh, yeah, I
think there will be innovation and

1737
01:20:35,730 --> 01:20:39,330
I think that there will be reform in
Argentina, so I'm gonna pick them.

1738
01:20:39,810 --> 01:20:40,260
You'll love it.

1739
01:20:41,519 --> 01:20:45,120
Jacob Shapiro: Okay, uh, we've got
seven minutes to do the last nine here.

1740
01:20:45,120 --> 01:20:46,500
I'm gonna get very controversial.

1741
01:20:46,500 --> 01:20:47,850
It's my first city state.

1742
01:20:48,240 --> 01:20:51,030
Um, I will take Singapore at number 12.

1743
01:20:51,630 --> 01:20:53,220
I'm thinking about the Strait of Malacca.

1744
01:20:53,310 --> 01:20:55,050
I'm thinking about material wealth.

1745
01:20:55,290 --> 01:20:58,590
I'm thinking about the ability
to project power with advances

1746
01:20:58,590 --> 01:20:59,640
in AI and things like that.

1747
01:20:59,640 --> 01:21:03,390
And there is no place in the world
that is better suited to deploy AI

1748
01:21:03,390 --> 01:21:06,269
and all these different fancy things
at scale than a city state with the

1749
01:21:06,269 --> 01:21:10,500
relative stability, material, wealth,
and strategic location as Singapore.

1750
01:21:10,500 --> 01:21:12,660
So if we're thinking about who
can shape global trends and how

1751
01:21:12,750 --> 01:21:15,330
they can use that power, I think
in multipolar eras we'll see the

1752
01:21:15,330 --> 01:21:17,400
return of very powerful city states.

1753
01:21:17,400 --> 01:21:18,930
And I think Singapore is the top one.

1754
01:21:18,930 --> 01:21:23,160
So I'm probably picking too high 'cause I
wanted them, but I wanted them, I needed,

1755
01:21:23,160 --> 01:21:24,960
I needed the crown jewel at number 12.

1756
01:21:25,710 --> 01:21:29,250
Marko: Alright, so, uh, we'll definitely
do a download of this in the next episode

1757
01:21:29,250 --> 01:21:30,390
'cause we're gonna do this very quickly.

1758
01:21:30,390 --> 01:21:31,890
Saudi Arabia is my 13 pick.

1759
01:21:32,100 --> 01:21:36,900
Now I am including in this, first of
all, Saudi Arabia is doing what Iran

1760
01:21:36,900 --> 01:21:38,790
should have done just 10 years earlier.

1761
01:21:39,644 --> 01:21:42,285
The second thing is I think that
when I see Saudi Arabia, I do

1762
01:21:42,285 --> 01:21:44,085
really mean the region as well.

1763
01:21:44,205 --> 01:21:48,795
So, um, no offense to anyone, uh,
but I think Saudi Arabia is going

1764
01:21:48,795 --> 01:21:52,394
to harness the power of innovation,
not just in Saudi Arabia, but also

1765
01:21:52,394 --> 01:21:53,745
in neighboring countries as well.

1766
01:21:54,195 --> 01:21:56,325
So I'm gonna pick that at 13.

1767
01:21:56,505 --> 01:22:00,045
Uh, and that includes some of the city
states that are around Saudi Arabia.

1768
01:22:00,045 --> 01:22:00,134
Mm-hmm.

1769
01:22:00,375 --> 01:22:04,214
You know, so that like, it's
like Saudi Arabia plus like three

1770
01:22:04,214 --> 01:22:07,245
Singapores, so I'm gonna take them 13.

1771
01:22:07,245 --> 01:22:07,605
Exactly.

1772
01:22:09,045 --> 01:22:11,384
Jacob Shapiro: It's probably a crime
that we've left them to number 14.

1773
01:22:11,415 --> 01:22:13,755
'cause I don't think Japan is
gonna collapse anytime soon.

1774
01:22:13,755 --> 01:22:17,835
So at this point I will bend the knee
to Japan and say, sorry we left you off.

1775
01:22:17,865 --> 01:22:20,325
Yes, you have lots of demographic
issues and all these other things,

1776
01:22:20,325 --> 01:22:23,445
but if there's any country that
is gonna respond to the continued

1777
01:22:23,445 --> 01:22:25,065
growth of China, it's gonna be Japan.

1778
01:22:25,065 --> 01:22:27,045
And Japan is gonna be at the
front lines of doing that.

1779
01:22:27,045 --> 01:22:29,235
And they technologically
all different sorts of ways.

1780
01:22:29,235 --> 01:22:30,674
Like they know how to exist in this world.

1781
01:22:30,674 --> 01:22:31,304
So I'll take them.

1782
01:22:32,205 --> 01:22:32,384
Marko: Okay.

1783
01:22:32,384 --> 01:22:34,575
So I'm gonna take Ukraine 15.

1784
01:22:35,790 --> 01:22:37,440
Ooh, spicy.

1785
01:22:37,860 --> 01:22:40,920
Yeah, so I think the Ukraine is
going to become a garrison state.

1786
01:22:41,430 --> 01:22:42,960
Garrison states do very well.

1787
01:22:43,530 --> 01:22:50,309
Western Germany, Taiwan, uh,
South Korea, Japan in some sense,

1788
01:22:50,370 --> 01:22:52,320
Pakistan for a period of its time.

1789
01:22:52,740 --> 01:22:55,559
Um, so I think, yeah, Ukraine's
gonna be a garrison state.

1790
01:22:55,559 --> 01:22:56,790
It's gonna be armed to the teeth.

1791
01:22:56,820 --> 01:22:58,470
Your point that Russia is still six.

1792
01:22:58,500 --> 01:22:59,250
Okay, cool.

1793
01:22:59,250 --> 01:23:02,730
Well, the west is gonna have to
stalk Ukraine with a lot of good

1794
01:23:02,730 --> 01:23:07,050
governance, anti-corruption,
money, innovation, and so on.

1795
01:23:07,050 --> 01:23:12,360
So I, I like Ukraine and, and I almost
feel like I took it way too low here.

1796
01:23:12,360 --> 01:23:14,760
I think that it's a large
country, it's in the West.

1797
01:23:14,760 --> 01:23:17,519
It's got a lot of natural
resources, not energy, but it's

1798
01:23:17,519 --> 01:23:18,540
gonna have to work on that.

1799
01:23:19,110 --> 01:23:20,460
Um, so yeah.

1800
01:23:20,910 --> 01:23:23,580
Now look, we have four minutes
and we have to do five.

1801
01:23:23,580 --> 01:23:24,570
So here's what I'm gonna say.

1802
01:23:25,290 --> 01:23:27,930
Let's do second part of this next week.

1803
01:23:28,740 --> 01:23:29,010
Next, yeah.

1804
01:23:29,010 --> 01:23:29,490
If you agree.

1805
01:23:30,565 --> 01:23:31,175
That sounds good.

1806
01:23:31,175 --> 01:23:35,820
Uh, we've got top 15, uh, we got five more
and then maybe we can do some thoughts.

1807
01:23:35,850 --> 01:23:39,750
You know, for example, uh, Russia
didn't fall as much as it did.

1808
01:23:39,750 --> 01:23:43,680
Japan seems to have fallen more than
I think both of you and I. Like if I

1809
01:23:43,680 --> 01:23:49,560
took South Korea seventh, like, you
know, should Japan really be 14th?

1810
01:23:49,560 --> 01:23:52,380
Like I think there's a lot of
things here that, that maybe

1811
01:23:52,380 --> 01:23:54,360
we can talk about next time.

1812
01:23:54,690 --> 01:23:58,860
Um, but yeah, that, that can
be part two of our trade value.

1813
01:24:00,870 --> 01:24:01,500
Jacob Shapiro: I think that sounds great.

1814
01:24:01,500 --> 01:24:05,160
And that also allows the listeners to
send us feedback about the initial list.

1815
01:24:05,160 --> 01:24:09,030
Like let's, so tell listeners, tell us
either via email or via social media

1816
01:24:09,030 --> 01:24:12,450
how you think the draft went so far
to maybe some of your alternate picks.

1817
01:24:12,450 --> 01:24:15,780
And then to your point, Marco, we can
pick the last five and then sort of go

1818
01:24:15,780 --> 01:24:18,660
through and whether this was actually
a fruitful exercise or whether we

1819
01:24:18,660 --> 01:24:19,920
were just picking out of our butts.

1820
01:24:21,180 --> 01:24:21,390
Marko: Alright.

1821
01:24:21,390 --> 01:24:21,630
Cool.

1822
01:24:21,630 --> 01:24:22,350
Well thank you Jacob.

1823
01:24:22,410 --> 01:24:24,810
Uh, I guess we'll do another one soon.

1824
01:24:26,160 --> 01:24:27,120
Jacob Shapiro: We've got three minutes.

1825
01:24:27,150 --> 01:24:30,870
Uh, anything you want quick
60 seconds of NBA thoughts?

1826
01:24:30,900 --> 01:24:34,680
Uh, I don't think any expert out
there had, uh, Knick's, Pacers as,

1827
01:24:34,680 --> 01:24:36,660
uh, as the Eastern Conference Finals.

1828
01:24:36,660 --> 01:24:41,670
I, my, my, uh, my Knick's, uh,
Timberwolves, uh, uh, pick is starting

1829
01:24:41,670 --> 01:24:43,440
to look a little, a little good looking.

1830
01:24:43,440 --> 01:24:43,860
Okay.

1831
01:24:44,190 --> 01:24:44,400
Marko: No.

1832
01:24:44,400 --> 01:24:47,610
So, uh, my pick was
timber rolls versus, uh,

1833
01:24:50,310 --> 01:24:50,760
Boston.

1834
01:24:52,650 --> 01:24:52,890
Yeah.

1835
01:24:53,220 --> 01:24:53,430
Yeah.

1836
01:24:53,430 --> 01:24:55,380
So I looked really stupid
on the timber rolls, right?

1837
01:24:55,380 --> 01:24:57,840
Like, I mean, that, that didn't
look like it was gonna happen,

1838
01:24:57,840 --> 01:25:01,860
but what I think would be cool was
Timberwolves versus Nicks, you know?

1839
01:25:01,890 --> 01:25:06,780
And I just think that that's like such
a great finals, um, because Kat versus

1840
01:25:06,780 --> 01:25:08,850
Randall, like who won the trade, yeah.

1841
01:25:09,360 --> 01:25:12,270
I guess it's one of the first trades
that actually really did work out

1842
01:25:12,270 --> 01:25:13,770
for both teams, like massively.

1843
01:25:13,770 --> 01:25:15,630
So, no, I, I, I think
it's gonna be interesting.

1844
01:25:15,690 --> 01:25:19,890
Uh, YOIC needs help last night's game
where he just had a crazy stat line

1845
01:25:19,890 --> 01:25:21,660
that three pointer or like just, I mean.

1846
01:25:22,590 --> 01:25:23,940
It was just sad to see that.

1847
01:25:24,000 --> 01:25:29,940
Uh, but, uh, but yeah, um, all I
would say is like, uh, don't write

1848
01:25:29,940 --> 01:25:34,590
off Denver yet, because it's gonna go
back to game seven, I think in Okay.

1849
01:25:34,950 --> 01:25:39,330
C and then maybe, um, you know,
we'll see the youth versus

1850
01:25:39,330 --> 01:25:40,620
experience that might work.

1851
01:25:40,680 --> 01:25:46,050
Uh, other than that, uh, you ended
up being right about Tatum, but I

1852
01:25:46,050 --> 01:25:47,610
gotta say I don't feel good about it.

1853
01:25:48,330 --> 01:25:51,060
Jacob Shapiro: Oh, I, I, I don't want
to be right if I'm right, if I'm right

1854
01:25:51,060 --> 01:25:55,140
this way, but I, I'm rooting for Yoic,
but I think OKC, the, the smart money is

1855
01:25:55,140 --> 01:25:58,590
KC and that OKC has agree, has a measure
of everyone and that, and that probably

1856
01:25:58,830 --> 01:26:02,070
going through the crucible of Denver
has now made them ready for what they

1857
01:26:02,070 --> 01:26:04,950
need to get the rest of the way, like
Denver needed to give them that test.

1858
01:26:05,070 --> 01:26:05,310
So,

1859
01:26:05,580 --> 01:26:09,420
Marko: by the way, speaking of
picking Canada too high mm-hmm.

1860
01:26:09,810 --> 01:26:14,610
Nobody's mentioned this narrative,
but that OKC nuggets, um, series

1861
01:26:14,610 --> 01:26:16,680
is really Canada on full display.

1862
01:26:17,190 --> 01:26:21,000
Like the two most important players on the
Thunder are clearly obviously Canadian.

1863
01:26:21,000 --> 01:26:25,770
It's not Williams who's playing
terrible, it's Dot and Shea.

1864
01:26:25,770 --> 01:26:30,090
And then of course, uh, Murray on
Nuggets can be the difference maker.

1865
01:26:30,090 --> 01:26:31,380
So I thought that was really interesting.

1866
01:26:31,950 --> 01:26:32,400
Uh, but yeah.

1867
01:26:32,430 --> 01:26:32,700
Cool.

1868
01:26:32,760 --> 01:26:33,060
Alright.