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Silver just had the steepest drop in 40 years

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from 120 down to about 78. And most investors have

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no idea what that means. Some people are calling it the buying opportunity of

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a lifetime. Others are saying it's a warning sign that industrial demand

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is collapsing. and that the global economy is slowing, and that silver is

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just the first domino. So what is it? Is it the bottom? Or

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is there more pain in the silver and metals markets ahead? You

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see, silver doesn't crash like this without a reason. If

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you don't understand why it's happening, then you're going to make the wrong decision.

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And in this video, I'm going to show you exactly why silver tanked, what

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the data says about where it's headed next, and whether this is an asset you

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should be putting your money behind. I'm Lloyd James Ross, seven

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figure investor and entrepreneur and I've helped thousands of business owners and

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professionals turn financial stress into success. If

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you're stuck in old money habits, overwhelmed by investing or unsure where

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to start, this is for you. I'll give you the mindset and

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strategies to take control, grow your wealth and achieve financial

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freedom. It's time to make your money work for you. All right. Firstly,

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where are we right now? What's happening in the metals market with

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silver and gold? I'm going to take you through some numbers. I'm going to explain to

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you what it's all about and how it impacts you. Let's

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get the numbers on the table right now. As of right now, one, gold

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is around just a bit over $5,000 an ounce and silver is around $80 an ounce. Gold

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has been up massively over the last year. I mean,

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we're talking like 70%, which it's

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crazy thinking about how fast assets move. It's

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a huge move in gold, all right? And everyone, of course, becomes a

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gold bug. You can see big lines down at the bullion shop in Sydney, people

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lining up to get gold. I'm not sure why, but

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of course, it's for fast money. It's the jackpot money mindset I talk about in that book

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as to what's causing that. But it sounds like

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it's not a slow and stable store of value. It seems like

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it's turned into a speculative something-something, right?

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Does it sound like it's a crowded trade to you? It

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seems like it is, because if there's lines of people in Sydney looking

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to get gold bullion, it seems like we're at a bit of a bubble here. So

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why the market went crazy? Here are the real drivers behind the

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insane gold and silver run. One,

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US dollar weakness and yields. So when the

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US dollar weakens, and it's caused by the fact, here's how

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the US dollar weakened. Of course, everybody knows that there's a lot of cheap money

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pumped out. Everybody knows that there's fear of the US

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defaulting because it's $38 trillion in debt. Everybody is aware of

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this. But here's what happened. Donald Trump. wanted

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Chairman Powell, who's the chair of the Federal Reserve, to cut rates

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during full employment, steady price. So

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that means inflation steady and down. He wants Powell to

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cut rates, right? But Powell doesn't want to. He wants

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to keep rates steady, higher, which is what's happened in the United States. Is

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Trump right? Maybe. Is Powell right? Maybe. It's

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hard to tell. But what has happened, too, since then is that Trump

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has been jawboning to get rid of the Federal Reserve

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and replace him with Kevin. There's two Kevins that were up for nomination. He's

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chosen a Kevin. And he's going to come in. Now, everyone

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anticipated and thought that Donald Trump is going to basically influence

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the Fed chair to cut rates during a time where

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the United States GDP growth is around 5% to 6%, which is huge. Now,

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that's not a good time to cut rates. But everyone thought that so

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they thought, well, Donald's definitely gonna do that. That's why he's bringing a new federal chair, right

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for the Federal Reserve. But so that said, they're like, you know what,

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there's gonna be cheap money everywhere. So the US dollar weakens. That's what

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happened. And gold tends to catch a bid because it's a non

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yielding asset, and the opportunity cost drops. Okay, basically, when

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cash and bonds are less attractive, capital moves into gold.

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That's what's happened. They're fearful of the money becoming

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worth less. Meanwhile, China has been buying a ton

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of gold. So the demand is also really high. A lot of demand for

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gold and also the people saying, well, the currency is going to

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be worth nothing. The narrative, the story. is what

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happens, right? So a big part of the gold narrative is rising stress in

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the US debt dynamics and the declining trust in the dollar

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asset. And that's been the core pillar of the bull market

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in gold and silver, right? And the other

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driver is the central bank So governments like

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the US and other central banks like China, they're going

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after gold, okay? So the demand is what's also pushing prices higher.

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On the silver side, it's structural supply issues and a deficit in

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the silver supply that's actually causing the narrative. So silver has

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got its own fuel. There's been talk of structural deficits, heavy investment

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demand required to get more silver out of the ground. Huge volatility, and

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that's what caused this massive sharp move in silver, like extreme levels.

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Like $120 an ounce, it is huge, right? So the metals

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didn't rise because everyone suddenly became responsible investors.

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They rose because macro conditions created a fear trade.

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That's what it is. Gold and silver is a fear trade. Probably

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more so gold than silver, alright? So let's look at what's happened in

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the past when this has happened. Gold and silver have done

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this before. Here's some examples in the gold bull markets of yonder

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year. The 1970s, inflation, which is kind of what's happening at

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the moment. The oil shocks that happened from the oil embargo in the 70s.

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And a lot of dollar weakness. Gold ran hard. So we're almost repeating the

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1970s when Paul Volcker was the Fed chair. And

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as a result of that, interest rates went up to 17%. It happened

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again. So yeah, it's more of like

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an inflation shock that's causing this and

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dollar weakness. Same as the 70s. 2001, 2011, dollar issues, crisis

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era, another major multi-year bull run. Silver bull examples,

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1979 to 1980. The biggest, one

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of the biggest ever, silver spiked, then collapsed violently. In fact, I'm

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pretty sure it collapsed in 1980, pretty sure, by

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63% in a day. And that's why I don't touch the metals. But 2008, 2011, a

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major crisis around money. So what we're seeing in the past is that anytime there's

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this rhetoric, this narrative around weak, cheap

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fiat money, US dollars weakening, we get a fear trade

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into gold and silver. And that's what's happened, right? So the point is

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that metals never just go up. The point is that metals historically go

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up in waves based on a story and then they

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punish late buyers, like punish. Could you imagine losing

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60% of your wealth in silver in a day? And this will happen time and time

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again. So will it happen again? Of course it will. Are you kidding me? Of course. So

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if you're seeing massive bull runs in gold and silver, and you're seeing

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people line up around the bullion shop to buy, and you're seeing people talk about it all the

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time, it's probably the top. And will you lose money? You

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probably already lost money from the silver. I shouldn't laugh, but it's

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a little bit amusing because if you understood, if you watch this channel for long enough, if

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you wouldn't want to play in this area, right? And that's why I don't touch that

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stuff. It's just so unpredictable. So now let's talk about the punch in

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the face. Gold had a brutal fall right after Trump

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named Kevin Walsh, which is one of the two Kevins he nominated. So Kevin Walsh comes

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into the Fed chair. He's the next one coming in. And the market, this

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is why it collapsed. Gold was pumping because of the US cheap

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dollar narrative, like, oh, the US dollar is disappearing. That's the narrative. And

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here's what happened. Kevin Walsh gets picked. And the market

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interprets it as, actually, if you look at his record, he actually

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likes to increase interest rates. Boom!

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All of a sudden, in a day, it's like, uh-oh, this guy's going to increase rates.

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That means there's less cheap money. That means the US dollar is probably going to gain strength. Oh,

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shivers. And then gold plunges 10% in a single day, late Jan.

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Silver falls 27% in the same set, 27% in a single session. One

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of the biggest recorded drawdowns ever. Like trillions

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moved, trillions of dollars. So if

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it's a safe haven, like how can it drop 10% in a day? How safe is

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it when positioning is crowded? Just quickly, if you're ready to take control

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of your finances but feel stuck on where to start, I have a

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solution. My book, Money Buys Happiness, simplifies investing

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and wealth building with practical steps to help you achieve financial peace.

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Get your copy via the link in the show notes and let's get your money working for

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you. Now back to the episode. So here's what I want to talk to you about and

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explore this with you. So you have a bit of an anchor or something to

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understand the price moves of gold. So you know if you're getting like, this

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will keep you out of trouble. Okay, if you're gonna play there, here's some rules, right?

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Here's the gold and silver to oil ratio. And

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this is why I believe metals are still gonna fall because

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of this ratio. So this will help put some bumpers

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on your metals investments, if that's something you wanna participate in,

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right? And here's what most people don't understand or ignore, right? Gold

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doesn't move in isolation, it moves relative to other real

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assets. Fact. So here's one of the key lessons, the gold

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to oil ratio. How many barrels of oil, which

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is the most productive commodity in the world, how many

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barrels of oil equal one ounce of gold? This is the gold

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to oil ratio, right? Historically, the ratio has often sat around

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the mid-teens. So around 15, okay?

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So that means 15 barrels of oil will buy

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an ounce of gold. Does that make sense?

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So 5,000 roughly goes into, what was it, 60? Yeah, we're

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looking at like, it's a lot more. It's not 15. So

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you can understand where I'm going with this, right? So does it does this

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make sense to you? 15 barrels of oil will buy an ounce of gold.

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So since the 1980s, it's typically traded in a broad range between

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six and 40. So it just oscillates, yeah, with extreme spikes in

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either direction. And that's what you have to understand. Where are we in that ratio? Okay.

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So if we look at The extreme valuation of

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The usual is 15, we're at 80. So if you think about that,

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if that's the case and 80 was going to be steady, 80 barrels, all

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we have to do is take 5,000 an ounce divided by $60 a

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barrel. So right now we're at 83, literally. As I record

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this, we're at 83 barrels of oil per one ounce of gold. Now normally it's

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15. So if we take 5,000 divided by 15, $333 is what oil has to get to for that ratio to balance out. Does that

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make sense? So if oil is at $333 a barrel, we'll be at the 15 to 1 ratio. So

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either oil has to, divided by 63, either

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oil has to 5x from here, which would pretty much kill

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the economy. Oil, yeah, ain't no one be driving petrol

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cars at that point. 5x, that's what has to happen, or

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gold must fall. Now what I've experienced in my life, and

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you may take this as a bit of a gold nugget of wisdom, I hope you do, because

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I learnt it and I'm like, that's helped me so much in my life, is this. The answer

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to these difficult questions is typically found in the middle somewhere, okay?

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So if we can say, well, what's going to happen? Well, what if it's in the middle? What if gold falls

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to, say, $3,000 an ounce and oil dries

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up to $200 a barrel? Yeah? We're back at $15. Look

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at that. Dead on $15. I just did that quick sum on my phone. $3,000 an ounce

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of gold and oil at $200 a

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barrel. We're back at the ratio. So one or two things can happen. Oil

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may go to 200 and it probably will. And Warren Buffett's also said that,

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which is likely because there's a huge structural undersupply in oil. I've done

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episodes on this before, so go back and check out my oil episodes. And

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also gold will fall. So I'm anticipating gold will come

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down from 5,000 ounce down to 3,000. And I can't wait to

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do an episode on that because I'm pretty sure that's going to happen. And

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it's going to show you that this show is not just about entertainment

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and education. It's actually about, you know, we know what we're talking about here a little bit too. I'm

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using data to help you understand this myriad of

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difficulty in the financial world. You can see it very clearly, oil

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is going to go up. And you can see it very clearly, gold is stretched. And

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so some of these things in politics start to play out in real

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life, right? So oil is a catalyst that can push it up. It'll

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start to shift, all right? So here's the logic. If oil rises, the

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ratio normalizes, and gold will probably come

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down, okay? It's a combination of the two things. So what does that mean for

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you? Well, here's the summary of this. Here's why I'm

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doing this episode. Obviously, my view is that oil is a stronger trade,

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and you can buy wonderful companies at great prices that you can make money

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from that are very predictable. On the opposite side, it's

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very unpredictable to play in gold and silver. Very. Okay. I

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don't buy gold or silver for that reason that it's actually very difficult

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to understand or plan what's going to happen. Okay. Not because they can't go

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up and so forth, but because I want consistency to be able to build

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wealth over time, right? There's no cash flowing metals. I want assets to

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produce something while I'm waiting for the value to go up. I want earnings, dividends, rental

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income, free cash flow. That's what I want. And you should want that too. Gold and silver

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produce nothing. You need to pay someone else or

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you need someone else to pay more for it to go up. That's not a compounding machine.

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Metals are the greatest fear cycles, right? They're not great for compounding wealth

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because over decades, they just go up and down with

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uncertainty. Volatility is completely underestimated. People call

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gold safe, but you just watch it drop 10% in a day, right?

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So I'll give you a real example of how it can impact people's life. This topic of

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gold, how people can get sucked into the narrative out of fear

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and how it can actually have a consequence in their personal finances, right? So

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I've had a few students of mine ask me recently, they've said, Lloyd, Should

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I buy gold or silver because everyone's gone crazy for it and they're lining up That's the

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first question and I've had another one say hey, I actually hold this

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it's gone up 40 or 50% What should I do? Right and

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so there's two things happening People are getting seconded or

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seduced into it without knowing and those who have participated

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in the boom the jackpot Unknowingly and they don't know how they made the

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money now. They're stuck and So you can see here very clearly, you're

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damned if you do and you're damned if you don't. So that's why I just do not touch

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it. Does that make sense? It'll be

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an unwinnable game. So if you want

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to trade the fear cycle, trade it in real assets. I know

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that no matter what happens in the economy, people are going to come into my laundromat and

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want to wash their clothes and they'll pay me. I know in a real economy and

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no matter what happens, railroads will have to move stock. I

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know in any economy, people will need oil. I know in a real economy, they'll

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need healthcare. There's certain businesses that you just want to be a part of and

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certain assets you want to be a part of. I even, I know I beat up real estate a lot because

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I don't like buying it when it's overvalued, but even shelter and real estate is a good asset

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in the worst of times because it's solid. It's

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not going to evaporate and it doesn't drop 70% in a single day. So

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this is how it can affect you. So I hope that makes sense. The questions are

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coming out from various students of mine because it's on everyone's mind.

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It's a hot topic. And I would say if you don't understand the rules, don't

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play the game. So just based on that, you know where I

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stand. If you own gold or silver and you're like, what

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do I do with it? It's a fair question. I can't give you any advice. But

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I would say is don't play in games where you don't understand the

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rules. So I hope you can take this episode and the data I've shared

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with you as to where it will go, what will happen, and how I think about it.

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And I anticipate and hope that this will give you some level of education as

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to what you're playing in, why you're playing in it, and whether you should

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be or not. So I hope you've enjoyed the episode. It's a shorter one. Leave

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me a comment below. Are you an investor in gold or silver? Do you agree with me?

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Do you disagree? Where do you stand on this topic? I'd love for you to leave a comment,

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and we can come and debate in the comments. Hit the subscribe button, and I'll see you in the next episode. Thanks

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for listening to Money Grows on Trees. If you enjoyed the episode, leave a

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five-star review on Apple Podcasts and Spotify and subscribe

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to us on YouTube so you never miss an episode. And if you're serious about

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building wealth, make sure to check out the links in the show notes and follow me

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on all social media platforms at LloydJamesRoss for