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Jacob Shapiro: Hello listeners.

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Welcome to an emergency episode
of Geopolitical Cousins Marco and

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I drop everything to talk about
the burgeoning Israel Iran War.

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You can write to me at
jacob@jacobshapiro.com if you

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want to get to me and Marco with
any thoughts or anything else.

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Otherwise, uh, as you can tell by how
fast I'm talking, I should slow down.

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I've had a lot of coffee and
there's lots to do today.

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Take care of yourselves.

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We will see you out there.

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Marko Papic: I dunno how much time
you have, but I have a full two.

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I

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Jacob Shapiro: I've
got one, but, um, okay,

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Marko Papic: let's crush it Deb.

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Jacob Shapiro: Let's crush it.

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We are live.

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Go for it.

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Marko Papic: Alright, Jacob, we gotta talk
about, um, a serious situation that I am

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afraid we didn't really hit on right away.

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The Holly button has struck
again, I. And we now all expect

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Oklahoma City thunder to retaliate.

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And we have to see what that looks like.

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Jacob Shapiro: Marco,
this is why we're cousins.

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'cause I literally was thinking of
introing the same way and guys, Marco

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was so excited, he was like, no,
no, I wanna do the intro this time.

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And you did it so you could do that.

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Joking.

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I was gonna do that.

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Yes, we are.

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The pacers are up to one.

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What asymmetric means are the thunder
going to use now that Yeah, I'm, I'm

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Marko Papic: totally none.

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I mean, they're conventional, right?

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It's the asymmetry that's winning anyways.

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Okay, so we're here.

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Emergency pod obviously because
uh, Israel has struck Iran.

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Uh, they have struck
Iran's nuclear site to.

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In singular sites.

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Jacob Shapiro: Sites?

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No, no, no.

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They, they also, it's not clear how
much damage they did at four Dough,

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but it looks like four dough also,
uh, incurred some damage as well.

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Marko Papic: That's interesting.

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Okay.

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So, uh, more than just Naans,
naans appears to be, uh, the one

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that will strike like heavily but

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Jacob Shapiro: heavily.

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Yeah.

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We at least have video of smoke.

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We should say to the listeners,
like, this is, it's Friday,

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June 13th, 10:04 AM Central.

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What is, is it 8:00 AM Pacific?

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It's 8:00 AM.

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Um, we're gonna push, we're gonna
push this out as quickly as we

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can, but this is the fog of war,
so all the initial reporting will

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probably turn out to be wrong.

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Um, and some of the things that we
talk about may even be overtaken

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by events, like by the time
that you're listening to this.

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So like, take everything
with a grain of salt.

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The hardest part of doing analysis
at this part of, in this cycle of

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a, of a, of an attack like this is
we don't even know what we know.

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Um, so, but yeah, we'll
try and parse through it.

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Marko Papic: That's true.

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And I obviously agree with everything
you say, but, uh, I do sometimes feel

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that my first gut reaction is the best.

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Jacob Shapiro: Yeah, no, I think there's
something to be said for, um, I mean, I

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find gut and instinct is really important
an an important tool in an analyst's, um,

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Marko Papic: tool.

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Well, I think you know what it is.

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I think because as, as the situation
develops, oftentimes the two sides have

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an interest in, uh, flagging that they
could deviate from their constraints.

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Mm-hmm.

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That they, that they can do more
than what you would've thought

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at the onset of the crisis.

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But the truth is that they can't, you
know, and that's why sometimes day

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one analysis is better than day five.

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Obviously, day 30 is gonna be better.

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I, I, I don't, I don't disagree with that.

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But the difference between day
one analysis and day five analysis

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is often very, very profound.

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And it's because over the next
five days, you're likely to have

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your fate in your framework shaken.

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Think about April 2nd, reciprocal tariffs.

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What happened over the
course of the next five days?

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I mean, most people said no.

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I mean, they're serious.

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They're not gonna negotiate.

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Look, Peter Navarro's on
TV is saying they're not.

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That's because both sides at this
point right now, Israel, Iran, us,

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everybody has an interest in, um,
fronting in saying, hold me back.

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You know, I got more
than you think I have.

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Anyways, uh, sorry to interrupt
on that, but like, let's, let's go

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over everything that's happened.

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So, um, yeah, there's reports that
Israel used, actually a ground incursion.

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There's reports that there were, uh,
actually some Israeli commanders commandos

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that they have might have taken some
of the scientists, uh, from what I

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understand, there's two, uh, very high
ranking military officials in Iran.

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They have been targeted for assassination.

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Uh, several, uh, Iranian
military bases were struck.

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Um, multiple strikes in Tehran.

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I'm not clear what, other than of course,
some of the residential areas where, uh,

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officials were living like scientists and,
and, and military policymakers and so on.

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Naans, Fordo, not the bushy
hair and nuclear power plant

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from what I understand.

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Um, of course that one is legitimately
for civilian use, although everything is

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of course part of the nuclear program.

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Um, I dunno, am I missing
anything else on Israel's?

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Oh yeah.

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200 fighter jets were involved.

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Doesn't seem that refueling, uh, planes
were involved, but they probably were, I

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think, uh, US has delivered one to Israel.

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Jacob Shapiro: Yeah.

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Um, there's a, there's a
lot unclear about that.

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Um, well, so a couple things.

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Um, the first is, um, so we have
some confirmed deaths this morning.

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So the Chief of Staff of the Armed
Forces, Mohammed, I'm gonna, I'm

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not a Farsi speaker, I'm an a I'm an
Arabic speaker, so I apologize for

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butchering these names, but Major
General B Bhe, I think is his name.

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Then you've got General Hussein Salami,
not Soleimani Salami, who is the

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new commander in chief of the IRGC.

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He is gone.

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Then you've got a Deputy Commander of the
Armed Forces, um, a head of the airspace

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unit of the IRGC taken out, um, one, at
least one politician has been taken out.

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Um, Ali Shahani, who is an
influential Iranian politician.

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He's a close confidant
of the Supreme leader.

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He was overseeing the nuclear talks
with the United States, which is kind

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of crazy when you think about it.

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Like not just an assault on Iran, but
an an assault on the nuclear deal.

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And the negotiations itself on, on

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Marko Papic: diplomacy itself.

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Jacob Shapiro: I know, and like some
nuclear scientists taken out as well,

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there has been some video on social
media of Israeli refueling airplanes.

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It's not clear whether they're
legit, it's not clear whether it's

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over Iranian airspace or over Syrian
airspace or over Iraqi airspace.

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Uh, Marco, I dunno if you
remember Sim Tac though.

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He was on my podcast a couple weeks ago
and he talked about how when Assad fell,

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one of the things Israel did was it very
quietly bombed the shit out of Syrian air

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defense so that Syria skies are basically
open to Israel if it wants them to be.

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So part of me is thinking maybe what
made this a little more realistic than

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even I would've given Israel credit
for, is maybe they're able to refuel

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over Syria or maybe they're less worried
about incurring things over Syria.

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Um, and then the other, the other part
that I would, um, add to your summary

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of what happened is the sort of.

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I, I, I don't wanna say strange, but
the US role in all of this, because the

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initial response last night when you
and I were texting was from Marco Rubio.

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That was basically Israel
took unilateral action.

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We are not involved with this.

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Iran should not attack us.

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And then you wake up to Trump on truth
socials saying, I gave Iran a chance.

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Uh, they could still make a deal
if they want, but there's more

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coming and Israel is like gonna,
you know, basically destroy them.

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Um, and then you had Axios Wall
Street Journal reporting this

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morning that, that not only.

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Um, is, is the United States okay
with this, but that the United States

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knew and that the United States
participated in the deception to lull

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Iran into a false sense of security
by telling them it's not gonna happen.

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There's gonna be more time here.

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United States is not for this.

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I don't know quite how to run that down.

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Um, I think you're also right to point
out that, um, there are multiple Israeli

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security sources that are talking about
the Mossad being on the ground in Iran in

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much the same way that Ukraine was on the
ground in Russia with their big attack.

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So, you know, precision guided.

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Weapons located next to Iranians,
surface to air missile systems, um,

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drones, uh, actual commando units going
after scientists, things like that.

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Um, and I think part of that,
there, there's two parts of that.

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Number one, and I, I was just
talking to an Iranian security

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expert for, for my other podcast.

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Um, it's a sophisticated social media and
publicity campaign too, because Israel

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is all over Persian social media, putting
out things about how this is an assault

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on the regime, not on the Iranian people.

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That the, the Iranian regime
has been attacking you.

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Israel is attacking this and sort
of sowing those seeds of doubt.

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Um, but yeah, obviously a huge
intelligence operation that

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had to come forward there too.

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And then the last thing I would just
add to the summary, and I'm curious,

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I mean, I'm curious for your takes
on all of this, um, uh, Marco,

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but in some ways, one of the most.

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Blunt statements about what
Israel has done thus far.

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'cause if you like the French, I
dunno if you saw Macron's statement,

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he was like, we condemn Iran and its
nuclear program, like relatively softy

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from some of these other countries.

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But Saudi Arabia, I will quote, the
Kingdom of Saudi Arabia's, ministry

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of Foreign Affairs expresses its
strong condemnation in denunciation of

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blatant Israeli aggression against the
brotherly Islamic Republic of Iran,

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which undermines sovereignty and security
and constitute a clear violation,

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right, of international law and norms.

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So the Saudis that's at least
rhetorically, like slapping the

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Israelis on the wrist, maybe behind
the scenes Mohammad bin Salman, is like

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popping the champagne on the yacht.

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I don't know, but, uh, yeah, that,
that's at least my list of things.

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Also, to add to what you said,

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Marko Papic: well we should
probably start with the last one.

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I know that our listeners might think
that's bizarre, uh, to start with

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the Saudi statement, but the Saudi
statement is the most important one.

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I mean, if you're listening to this
and wondering what's gonna happen

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to your retirement, what's gonna
happen to the global economy, it's

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really the Saudi Iran relationship
that matters more than anything.

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I've said many times.

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Um, by the way, I think our
second podcast was about this.

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Yeah.

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It was about war in Iran.

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Um, so the, I've said many
times this year and last year,

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Iran and Israel can go at it.

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They can do whatever they want
to each other, and nothing will

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happen to the rest of the world.

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So this is a very important point.

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Iran and Israel can have a full
out war for the next two years, and

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it may be like a tree that falls
in the forest that nobody hears.

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Jacob Shapiro: Tree falls in
the oasis or the desert, I don't

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Marko Papic: know.

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In the desert.

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Yeah.

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The date tree falls over.

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So why, why?

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Because, um, look, Iran has to, uh, close
the straits of MOUs for this to be taken

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seriously by anybody listening to this.

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I'm assuming that Iranian
regime is not listening to this.

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You know, you guys should
take this seriously.

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Israel is going at it.

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Um, but other, other than that, I mean,
look, um, the way that this conflict

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articulates itself in oil prices, in
gold prices, in stock prices is that Iran

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has to close the straits or for moose.

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And if the Houthis can close the Red
Sea, you know, uh, if the Houthis can

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do that to the Red Sea, I mean, Iran
could do that to the Straits of Remus.

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And I just wanna explain this
because this is kind of complicated.

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Iran cannot really conventionally
retaliate successfully, at least

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against Israel or really anyone.

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Uh, it can, you know, shoot some
ballistic missiles and drones.

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00:10:55,065 --> 00:10:58,635
You know, that's unfortunate for people
on the receiving end, but it's not tragic.

230
00:10:59,655 --> 00:11:02,775
Jacob Shapiro: Well, and, and to,
to that point, apparently Iran

231
00:11:02,775 --> 00:11:04,334
sent its first salvo of drones.

232
00:11:04,334 --> 00:11:08,385
Israel warned its population to get ready
and then sent out a, we got them all.

233
00:11:08,385 --> 00:11:09,975
Don't worry, you can go back to your life.

234
00:11:09,975 --> 00:11:11,775
So, I mean, just like laying it on

235
00:11:11,775 --> 00:11:12,045
Marko Papic: for a while.

236
00:11:12,045 --> 00:11:14,235
But you know what, that
also shows multiple things.

237
00:11:14,235 --> 00:11:14,625
Jacob.

238
00:11:14,625 --> 00:11:20,655
It, it means that Iran did not have a
plan to retaliate, like ready to go.

239
00:11:20,775 --> 00:11:23,115
Like, you know, you know, this
is one of those things, like this

240
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is something that might happen.

241
00:11:24,165 --> 00:11:27,435
Like I live in California, we
may have a huge earthquake.

242
00:11:27,464 --> 00:11:33,405
I have rubber boots, I have water, I have
supply of food, like I have flashlights

243
00:11:33,405 --> 00:11:36,105
this, like, if there's an earthquake
right now, my family and I are now

244
00:11:36,105 --> 00:11:37,785
like, oh, well let's send some drones.

245
00:11:37,785 --> 00:11:38,025
You know?

246
00:11:38,025 --> 00:11:38,685
Jacob Shapiro: I don't know, like,

247
00:11:39,495 --> 00:11:42,435
Marko Papic: no, like why
isn't there a ballistic attack?

248
00:11:42,435 --> 00:11:44,985
Why isn't there, you know,
why isn't there a huge salvo?

249
00:11:44,985 --> 00:11:46,214
Like, why are they not ready?

250
00:11:46,214 --> 00:11:48,074
Instead, it's like some hundred drones.

251
00:11:48,074 --> 00:11:51,165
Like it's, it's very, Imma amateurish,
but let's leave that aside.

252
00:11:51,165 --> 00:11:56,115
I mean, look, the point is, while Iran's
military is incredibly dilapidated.

253
00:11:57,720 --> 00:12:01,680
There's an asymmetry to it in that
closing, a shipping lane doesn't

254
00:12:01,680 --> 00:12:03,300
require that much sophistication.

255
00:12:03,300 --> 00:12:04,620
You can do it with drones.

256
00:12:05,520 --> 00:12:07,650
You are attacking civilian tankers, okay?

257
00:12:08,460 --> 00:12:09,390
They're undefended.

258
00:12:09,510 --> 00:12:13,050
So you can, you can really make
it difficult for ships to transit

259
00:12:13,080 --> 00:12:14,700
with very low sophistication.

260
00:12:14,730 --> 00:12:20,280
Houthis have proven that, and so while
Iran has no ability to conventionally

261
00:12:20,280 --> 00:12:24,330
fight a war with really Israel or c
conventionally to threaten American

262
00:12:24,330 --> 00:12:25,800
forces in the region, they just don't.

263
00:12:26,790 --> 00:12:31,350
They have enough sophistication to
close shipping causal oppresses to

264
00:12:31,350 --> 00:12:33,360
go up, but they haven't done it.

265
00:12:33,900 --> 00:12:34,260
Why?

266
00:12:34,260 --> 00:12:37,380
Because, because of two reasons.

267
00:12:38,310 --> 00:12:41,730
One, that will invite massive retaliation
from the United States of America,

268
00:12:43,740 --> 00:12:45,450
the kind that turns
you into a parking lot.

269
00:12:46,305 --> 00:12:48,705
Iran has no way to defend against that.

270
00:12:48,705 --> 00:12:52,305
So it's kind of crossing the
Rubicon that is the nuclear option.

271
00:12:52,335 --> 00:12:54,105
Actually, it's not nuclear weapons.

272
00:12:54,615 --> 00:12:58,335
It will be closing the streets of, once
you do that, you know it's fair game.

273
00:12:58,335 --> 00:13:00,825
At that point, even China's
like, Hey America, please can

274
00:13:00,825 --> 00:13:02,145
you turn Iran into a parking lot?

275
00:13:03,315 --> 00:13:04,215
So that's the first issue.

276
00:13:04,215 --> 00:13:08,955
The second issue is that it would
tip the scales of conflict in the

277
00:13:08,955 --> 00:13:13,905
region so vastly against Iran because
it would invite Saudi participation.

278
00:13:14,175 --> 00:13:18,255
As you point out, Iran is
holding on to some very nice

279
00:13:18,255 --> 00:13:20,055
juicy assets for the long term.

280
00:13:20,055 --> 00:13:21,105
One of them is Iraq.

281
00:13:21,855 --> 00:13:28,005
It's holding on to Iraq because the
Saudis effectively seeded Iraq to Iran

282
00:13:28,635 --> 00:13:30,915
when they negotiated their 2022 Deante.

283
00:13:31,635 --> 00:13:32,955
And so there's a quid pro quo.

284
00:13:33,435 --> 00:13:37,335
Saudi Arabia said to Iran, you
can have Iraq, you can control it

285
00:13:37,335 --> 00:13:41,385
through your proxies, political and
militant, but you leave us alone.

286
00:13:41,655 --> 00:13:44,235
No more drone attacks against
our energy facilities.

287
00:13:44,670 --> 00:13:49,920
And notice that this Detant has
held from October 7th, 2023 onwards.

288
00:13:50,460 --> 00:13:55,050
It's held through the Iranis
Israel missile strikes in 2024.

289
00:13:55,050 --> 00:13:57,240
They were unprecedented and the
people thought would cause oil

290
00:13:57,240 --> 00:13:58,410
prices to go through the roof.

291
00:13:58,470 --> 00:13:59,370
They didn't.

292
00:14:00,120 --> 00:14:04,890
It's held throughout the Houthis who
are allied with Iran, not proxies,

293
00:14:04,890 --> 00:14:11,130
allied throughout the HTI drone campaign
against shipping in the Red Sea.

294
00:14:11,580 --> 00:14:15,720
Notice how all the drones went
south, as if their joystick controls

295
00:14:15,720 --> 00:14:17,280
are stuck in the south position.

296
00:14:17,430 --> 00:14:20,790
None of them went north to Saudi
facilities or Persian Gulf.

297
00:14:20,790 --> 00:14:21,270
Why not?

298
00:14:21,270 --> 00:14:24,870
I mean, hey, Houthis, if you wanna make
a big splash about what's going on in

299
00:14:24,870 --> 00:14:27,090
Gaza, shut down the streets of ous.

300
00:14:27,090 --> 00:14:29,160
It's kind of equidistant to the Red Sea.

301
00:14:29,640 --> 00:14:31,320
So why haven't the Houthis done that?

302
00:14:31,320 --> 00:14:32,580
Because Iran told them not to.

303
00:14:33,120 --> 00:14:36,600
Iran and Saudi Arabia have a
Deante, and it's a very important

304
00:14:36,600 --> 00:14:39,390
one, and it's the most important
part of this story to today.

305
00:14:40,035 --> 00:14:43,935
It's not about Israeli capabilities
or cool special forces or the

306
00:14:43,935 --> 00:14:47,415
next movie that will be directed
about like their incursion.

307
00:14:47,415 --> 00:14:51,045
Like everyone's like obsessing
about silly little military stuff.

308
00:14:51,614 --> 00:14:56,685
The most important question is what will
happen in terms of Iranian retaliation

309
00:14:56,685 --> 00:14:58,275
and will they rip off the bandaid?

310
00:14:58,364 --> 00:15:01,244
Will they cross the Rubicon,
whatever analogy you want, and

311
00:15:01,244 --> 00:15:04,305
attack Saudi facilities and
shipping through the per of Gulf?

312
00:15:04,665 --> 00:15:05,655
And my answer is no.

313
00:15:06,584 --> 00:15:10,035
And that's why that Saudi statement
is so important because the Saudis

314
00:15:10,035 --> 00:15:13,964
are saying like, look guys, like
this is between you Actually,

315
00:15:13,964 --> 00:15:15,224
no, they're not even saying that.

316
00:15:15,224 --> 00:15:17,775
They're actually saying like, yo,
Israel, Israel is the bad guy.

317
00:15:18,165 --> 00:15:20,234
They're straight up saying
Israel's the bad guy.

318
00:15:20,834 --> 00:15:20,895
Yeah.

319
00:15:20,954 --> 00:15:22,875
Uh, which is not that much of a shift.

320
00:15:22,875 --> 00:15:25,844
I mean, they've been saying that
really since October 7th, uh, and

321
00:15:25,844 --> 00:15:29,354
throughout 2024, although they did
participate allegedly in shooting

322
00:15:29,354 --> 00:15:33,974
down some projectiles that were
flying over Saudi territory.

323
00:15:34,454 --> 00:15:38,114
And, you know, uh, the way they justified
that to Iran is like, Hey man, like.

324
00:15:38,760 --> 00:15:42,689
You don't need to fly over
Saudi Arabia to hit Israel, you

325
00:15:42,689 --> 00:15:44,010
know, like, look at a map, bro.

326
00:15:44,100 --> 00:15:47,069
Like, so please don't, you
know, like, like, yeah, we're

327
00:15:47,069 --> 00:15:48,120
gonna defend our airspace.

328
00:15:48,120 --> 00:15:51,600
Like that's, so that wasn't really,
like a lot of people in the West

329
00:15:51,600 --> 00:15:53,400
thought that this was pro Israeli.

330
00:15:53,400 --> 00:15:55,589
It's not, uh, they're
defending their airspace.

331
00:15:55,589 --> 00:16:01,860
So I think this is why Jacob, my hot
take on this is Iran does have the

332
00:16:01,860 --> 00:16:05,790
capability to disrupt shipping and cause
oil prices to go up a hundred dollars.

333
00:16:05,790 --> 00:16:09,240
But there's two things that if
they do that, there's two bad

334
00:16:09,270 --> 00:16:10,530
effects that will happen to them.

335
00:16:10,890 --> 00:16:14,819
America, American military is
not as hot as people think it is.

336
00:16:15,480 --> 00:16:16,949
But let me be very, very clear.

337
00:16:16,949 --> 00:16:19,230
There's one thing that the United
States of America does better

338
00:16:19,230 --> 00:16:20,670
than any country in history.

339
00:16:21,150 --> 00:16:22,410
I mean, and, and not better.

340
00:16:22,410 --> 00:16:25,110
Like it's number one, it's
like number one, 2000.

341
00:16:26,564 --> 00:16:31,964
Nobody pulverizes you from 30,000 feet
like the US Air Force, when America

342
00:16:32,025 --> 00:16:37,694
doesn't care about in invading, when
America doesn't care about putting,

343
00:16:37,995 --> 00:16:42,074
uh, boots on the ground when it doesn't
care what you do to your own people,

344
00:16:42,225 --> 00:16:45,105
when it doesn't care about turning
you into Wisconsin and making sure

345
00:16:45,105 --> 00:16:47,175
you have like Wendy's on every corner.

346
00:16:47,564 --> 00:16:53,055
When America just wants to
flatten you, it's, it's unrivaled.

347
00:16:53,204 --> 00:16:57,255
And so if Iran crosses that
Rubicon, it will be punished.

348
00:16:57,285 --> 00:17:01,485
And then the second issue is that if
they cross it, if they get on the bedside

349
00:17:01,485 --> 00:17:06,014
of Saudi Arabia, they tilt the regional
balance vastly against themselves.

350
00:17:06,734 --> 00:17:12,375
Basically Saudi resources, but also
Saudi intelligence capabilities in Iraq.

351
00:17:13,754 --> 00:17:16,305
Will they be activated
against Iranian interests?

352
00:17:16,305 --> 00:17:20,625
And then, you know, it's really
game over for a little semblance

353
00:17:20,625 --> 00:17:22,336
of hegemony that Iran still has.

354
00:17:24,524 --> 00:17:24,915
Jacob Shapiro: Yeah.

355
00:17:25,214 --> 00:17:28,514
Um, well first of all, you uh, you
betrayed your lack of knowledge of the

356
00:17:28,514 --> 00:17:31,635
geopolitics of the Midwest because it
wouldn't be a Wendy's on every corner.

357
00:17:31,635 --> 00:17:32,595
It would be a Culver's.

358
00:17:32,595 --> 00:17:35,865
And I hope that the five Wisconsin
listeners that we have really appreciate

359
00:17:35,865 --> 00:17:37,274
that call out from yours truly.

360
00:17:37,305 --> 00:17:40,004
'cause I've eaten enough of those
cheeseburgers and I'm on a perpetual

361
00:17:40,004 --> 00:17:43,725
quest as a Jew to find the greatest
cheeseburger in the history of the world,

362
00:17:43,725 --> 00:17:46,425
which is, you know, you as you know,
funny for lots of different reasons.

363
00:17:46,425 --> 00:17:47,535
We can get into that another time.

364
00:17:48,524 --> 00:17:51,524
Um, well, I, I have two or three things
I wanna say in response to what you said.

365
00:17:51,555 --> 00:17:54,435
'cause I, I can get along with most
of what you said, but I, I, I wanna,

366
00:17:54,524 --> 00:17:57,735
I wanna think about it also from a
different angle, which is, um, it seems

367
00:17:57,735 --> 00:18:01,004
to me analytically, or one of the things
I'm trying to parse is, was this an

368
00:18:01,004 --> 00:18:03,315
attack on Iran's nuclear capability?

369
00:18:04,140 --> 00:18:09,240
To set it back or to wipe it out, or is
this really an attempt at regime change?

370
00:18:09,540 --> 00:18:12,750
Because Israel has also said,
look, this is not a one day thing.

371
00:18:12,750 --> 00:18:15,870
We're ready to go for the next two
weeks, and the Israeli population

372
00:18:15,870 --> 00:18:18,600
is ready to endure whatever it
has to do for the next two weeks.

373
00:18:18,810 --> 00:18:19,590
We took out.

374
00:18:19,805 --> 00:18:23,045
All those guys that I mentioned
in the first wave, you also

375
00:18:23,045 --> 00:18:24,425
saw what we did to Hezbollah.

376
00:18:24,635 --> 00:18:27,905
Like the unsaid thing there
is supreme leader ham hamani.

377
00:18:27,935 --> 00:18:29,015
Where are you?

378
00:18:29,225 --> 00:18:33,035
Do you feel safe where you are
President of Iran, where are you?

379
00:18:33,035 --> 00:18:34,535
Do you feel safe where you are?

380
00:18:34,535 --> 00:18:35,165
You shouldn't.

381
00:18:35,555 --> 00:18:38,255
Um, and this is the other thing I,
uh, that's sort of part of this,

382
00:18:38,255 --> 00:18:41,945
which is, um, you know, Iran's
military dilapidated fine, but this

383
00:18:41,945 --> 00:18:46,565
is not just about an inability to,
um, to have conventional offensive.

384
00:18:46,600 --> 00:18:48,100
Counter attack capability.

385
00:18:48,370 --> 00:18:51,669
It looks like Israel has just decimated
their ability to defend themselves.

386
00:18:51,730 --> 00:18:52,060
Yes.

387
00:18:52,060 --> 00:18:55,965
I mean, at, at least here on June 3rd at
10 o'clock in the morning like this, I,

388
00:18:55,969 --> 00:18:59,860
I don't wanna say it's a little cavalier
for me to say that Iranian skies belong

389
00:18:59,860 --> 00:19:04,570
to Israel, but Israel is hitting whatever
it wants, however, often it wants with

390
00:19:04,570 --> 00:19:08,919
fighter jets that I know can't, like,
you know, these are long distance flights

391
00:19:08,919 --> 00:19:10,030
that the Israelis are having to take.

392
00:19:10,030 --> 00:19:13,719
So unless they're secretly going
off a carrier, a US carrier, or

393
00:19:13,719 --> 00:19:16,419
out of Azerbaijan or something
like that, aggregators, I'm not

394
00:19:16,419 --> 00:19:17,199
saying that's what happened.

395
00:19:17,199 --> 00:19:19,689
I'm just saying unless there's some
secret here we don't know about.

396
00:19:19,959 --> 00:19:23,260
Like, you know, they're going
along, along sort distance.

397
00:19:23,260 --> 00:19:24,340
Marko Papic: Don't think we're,
I don't think we're big enough

398
00:19:24,340 --> 00:19:25,540
to be aggregated, but Jacob.

399
00:19:25,580 --> 00:19:26,449
Couple, well, we, we

400
00:19:26,449 --> 00:19:28,370
Jacob Shapiro: might be after
this times of crisis or when,

401
00:19:28,370 --> 00:19:29,449
or when people listen in.

402
00:19:29,449 --> 00:19:33,710
But the reason I bring that up is
because, um, well, it's twofold, number

403
00:19:33,710 --> 00:19:38,060
one, like you're right, as long as
this Iranian regime stays in place,

404
00:19:38,149 --> 00:19:40,850
but what if, and it's a huge gamble and
I'm not sure they're gonna pull it off.

405
00:19:40,850 --> 00:19:42,679
What if this is the end of the Islam?

406
00:19:42,679 --> 00:19:42,740
Yeah.

407
00:19:42,740 --> 00:19:45,080
So public I would have to,
and that's a whole big thing.

408
00:19:45,080 --> 00:19:47,090
And then the second thing I just
wanna say, and then you can take the

409
00:19:47,090 --> 00:19:50,060
wheel, is, you know, you said the
nuclear option was a straight of whom.

410
00:19:50,750 --> 00:19:54,139
This now gets to the question
of how far advanced is Iran

411
00:19:54,139 --> 00:19:55,850
with a nuclear weapon itself?

412
00:19:56,060 --> 00:19:57,949
Because if it's advanced enough to where.

413
00:19:58,115 --> 00:20:01,235
The supreme leader was just saying, don't
do the final screws, because I want to

414
00:20:01,235 --> 00:20:03,125
be able to have this negotiation process.

415
00:20:03,125 --> 00:20:05,855
But if it could be very simply
just sort of, Hey, let's complete

416
00:20:05,855 --> 00:20:09,815
the process really fast and have a
bomb, the thing that strikes me is

417
00:20:10,024 --> 00:20:11,764
Iran's back is against the wall.

418
00:20:12,004 --> 00:20:14,165
Their, their conventional
defenses have failed.

419
00:20:14,315 --> 00:20:18,004
They have no legitimate counter attack
that they can go to any attack that they

420
00:20:18,004 --> 00:20:20,075
do on, you know, Persian Gulf shipping.

421
00:20:20,075 --> 00:20:23,585
Anything else like that is gonna
bring down the goat of long-range

422
00:20:23,585 --> 00:20:26,705
bombardment on them, or is gonna break
the Saudi thing, which is the goat.

423
00:20:26,705 --> 00:20:29,495
Yeah, it would be really nice to
have a nuclear deterrent right now.

424
00:20:29,554 --> 00:20:31,565
This is the whole reason they
want the nuclear deterrent.

425
00:20:31,565 --> 00:20:33,185
Their proxies, by the way, are also gone.

426
00:20:33,185 --> 00:20:34,445
Hezbollah's sitting it out.

427
00:20:34,445 --> 00:20:36,065
Houthis know where to be found.

428
00:20:36,065 --> 00:20:37,054
They're not gonna affect this.

429
00:20:37,054 --> 00:20:40,895
So if you could have a nuke, like
now would be the time to show it off

430
00:20:40,895 --> 00:20:45,815
and say, okay, if you keep coming at
us, like here's a dirty bomb for you.

431
00:20:45,815 --> 00:20:47,195
Like, we will go this far.

432
00:20:47,195 --> 00:20:49,925
Like I, I was sort of having that
crazy thought that I was as I was

433
00:20:49,925 --> 00:20:50,527
thinking about all that anyway.

434
00:20:50,532 --> 00:20:51,300
No, that's not crazy at all.

435
00:20:52,175 --> 00:20:53,135
Marko Papic: No, that's not crazy at all.

436
00:20:53,135 --> 00:20:55,235
So, uh, first I think, um.

437
00:20:56,460 --> 00:20:59,370
I don't think regime change is
possible, like Israel has not been

438
00:20:59,370 --> 00:21:00,990
able to do regime change in Gaza.

439
00:21:01,680 --> 00:21:03,510
Why would it be able to do it in Iran

440
00:21:05,280 --> 00:21:08,790
Jacob Shapiro: if it can assassinate
the Hezbollah leadership?

441
00:21:08,790 --> 00:21:12,390
And if let's say they take out the
president of Iran and the Supreme leader,

442
00:21:12,635 --> 00:21:14,790
Marko Papic: I, I think that
that just replaces them, right?

443
00:21:14,790 --> 00:21:18,750
I mean, we've seen this story play out
in with Hezbollah and Hamas as well.

444
00:21:19,080 --> 00:21:19,770
Syria.

445
00:21:19,770 --> 00:21:19,830
Jacob Shapiro: Yeah.

446
00:21:19,855 --> 00:21:22,620
But, but those are like little
JI groups that hide in bunkers.

447
00:21:22,620 --> 00:21:26,820
This is a state that governs 80 plus
million people, a large swath of whom

448
00:21:26,850 --> 00:21:28,770
want nothing to do with these guys.

449
00:21:28,830 --> 00:21:33,990
Marko Papic: So, but isn't Well, yeah, I
mean maybe, you know, um, there is also

450
00:21:33,990 --> 00:21:36,240
the circling of the wagons that happens.

451
00:21:36,240 --> 00:21:41,250
I mean, while vast majority of Iranians
don't want to follow their leadership,

452
00:21:41,520 --> 00:21:43,710
they're also anti-Israeli, you know, so.

453
00:21:43,710 --> 00:21:43,800
Mm-hmm.

454
00:21:44,220 --> 00:21:48,060
It can backfire and the difference the
counter that you should, you should.

455
00:21:48,570 --> 00:21:49,229
Send at me.

456
00:21:49,860 --> 00:21:50,879
The country is Syria.

457
00:21:50,879 --> 00:21:51,149
Right?

458
00:21:51,149 --> 00:21:53,370
But Syria, Syria was a country.

459
00:21:53,370 --> 00:21:56,729
It's a great example of what happens
when you completely isolate yourself.

460
00:21:57,360 --> 00:22:00,000
Uh, Syria had Turkey against Assad.

461
00:22:00,510 --> 00:22:02,429
You had Saudi Arabia raid.

462
00:22:02,520 --> 00:22:06,570
I mean, Israel, Turkey, Saudi Arabia,
and the United States, America we're

463
00:22:06,570 --> 00:22:08,310
all on the same side, you know?

464
00:22:08,310 --> 00:22:10,199
So that's, that's a good
example of what happens, why you

465
00:22:10,320 --> 00:22:11,250
don't wanna isolate yourself.

466
00:22:11,250 --> 00:22:13,889
There's also actual militants
on the territory of Syria.

467
00:22:13,889 --> 00:22:17,580
So this isn't, I, I, I've heard
this regime change theory a lot

468
00:22:17,580 --> 00:22:22,620
today, and I just, you know, I don't
think that that's where Israel is

469
00:22:22,620 --> 00:22:23,729
able to go, but it doesn't matter.

470
00:22:23,729 --> 00:22:27,479
Look, let's, let's, let's array
some of the things that you've said.

471
00:22:27,540 --> 00:22:33,449
Um, in terms of military capabilities,
Israel has some refueling capacity.

472
00:22:34,290 --> 00:22:39,090
Boeing seven oh sevens, they haven't
received the kc uh, uh, kcs yet.

473
00:22:39,179 --> 00:22:44,370
Uh, which, uh, they, they've had
an order since 2020, so, uh, that

474
00:22:44,370 --> 00:22:45,570
hasn't been delivered actually yet.

475
00:22:45,570 --> 00:22:47,250
So they have some domestic
ones, but it's not.

476
00:22:47,685 --> 00:22:52,005
It's not as, uh, sophisticated as what
the Americans would give them if they

477
00:22:52,005 --> 00:22:55,245
actually delivered, uh, the US airplanes.

478
00:22:56,265 --> 00:22:59,175
So they, they're gonna have to
do this in waves of fighter jets.

479
00:22:59,180 --> 00:22:59,600
Mm-hmm.

480
00:22:59,780 --> 00:23:03,945
The problem with fighter jets is that
they're, uh, vulnerable to air defenses.

481
00:23:03,945 --> 00:23:05,985
And this is where your
point is so critical.

482
00:23:06,285 --> 00:23:08,085
Where is Iran's vaunted?

483
00:23:08,115 --> 00:23:09,165
S3 hundreds?

484
00:23:09,705 --> 00:23:11,145
They've clearly been disabled.

485
00:23:11,385 --> 00:23:16,155
Last year's attack that Israel
performed, if you remember, it was a

486
00:23:16,155 --> 00:23:20,355
single strike and everybody was kind
of confused what the single strike was.

487
00:23:20,565 --> 00:23:24,375
It apparently targeted the Raider
installations for the S3 hundreds sending

488
00:23:24,375 --> 00:23:27,045
a message to Iran that we can blind you.

489
00:23:27,465 --> 00:23:29,685
So, um, it appears that
that's what's happened.

490
00:23:30,225 --> 00:23:31,365
So it's fine.

491
00:23:31,365 --> 00:23:34,425
Like Israel now has control
over skies, as you said.

492
00:23:34,455 --> 00:23:39,015
The problem for Israel is that its
tools for navigated Iran's skies are

493
00:23:39,015 --> 00:23:43,875
still, uh, limited attacking with
fighter jets, there's a problem.

494
00:23:43,875 --> 00:23:46,845
You have to, they have to
be fully loaded with fuel.

495
00:23:47,850 --> 00:23:51,540
Which means they cannot carry as much
ordinance and the ordinance that they

496
00:23:51,540 --> 00:23:56,700
carry is limited, particularly because the
US as is now very much known and has been

497
00:23:56,700 --> 00:24:01,740
known for decades, the US has not provided
Israel with the bunker buster technology

498
00:24:01,740 --> 00:24:04,015
that's required to fully damage Fordo.

499
00:24:04,020 --> 00:24:07,980
Fordo is 40 meters underground,
some say half a mile.

500
00:24:08,430 --> 00:24:09,480
Uh, I didn't know that.

501
00:24:09,540 --> 00:24:10,860
I thought it was just 40 meters.

502
00:24:10,860 --> 00:24:11,490
Doesn't matter.

503
00:24:11,760 --> 00:24:14,010
Many of the tunnels are 90 degree angles.

504
00:24:14,310 --> 00:24:16,830
You know, bunker buster
technology can't deal with that.

505
00:24:17,100 --> 00:24:21,120
You need what the Americans have,
which, which can completely destroy much

506
00:24:21,120 --> 00:24:23,820
deeper, much wider range of penetration.

507
00:24:24,120 --> 00:24:25,200
That's not what Israelis have.

508
00:24:25,200 --> 00:24:29,910
So, um, this attack ultimately
is not going to completely

509
00:24:29,910 --> 00:24:32,040
destroy Iran's nuclear program.

510
00:24:33,330 --> 00:24:37,680
I think that there's limits to how
much Israel can do, and that's why

511
00:24:37,680 --> 00:24:42,780
I think that ultimately we have
to also consider that both sides

512
00:24:42,780 --> 00:24:44,310
are limited in what they can do.

513
00:24:46,080 --> 00:24:48,000
And that's where the US is so important.

514
00:24:48,330 --> 00:24:52,860
In a way Israel wants
to draw Americans in.

515
00:24:52,889 --> 00:24:56,879
This is all, this has been for a long time
a theory like what if Israel just done

516
00:24:56,879 --> 00:25:03,090
ki does kind of like a halfway attack,
hopes that Iran retaliates in a way that

517
00:25:03,360 --> 00:25:05,909
matters to America, like attacks the base.

518
00:25:05,909 --> 00:25:12,179
The air base in Qatar attacks the Fifth
Fleet headquarters in Manama, Bahrain.

519
00:25:12,780 --> 00:25:15,840
You know, the military bases in Iraq
are, I think, fair game at this point.

520
00:25:15,840 --> 00:25:16,350
It's fine.

521
00:25:16,379 --> 00:25:18,989
Iran has attacked them before many times.

522
00:25:19,500 --> 00:25:24,209
Uh, but if Iran retaliates against the
US or shipping interest in the streets

523
00:25:24,209 --> 00:25:29,250
of MOUs, then this attacks from a
strategic perspective for Israel is a win.

524
00:25:30,419 --> 00:25:34,050
If it doesn't, it's
kind of like not a win.

525
00:25:34,320 --> 00:25:38,969
In fact, it probably accelerates the
nuclear program, as you pointed out,

526
00:25:39,449 --> 00:25:43,830
um, where Iran needs that breakout
capacity as soon as possible.

527
00:25:46,305 --> 00:25:46,665
Jacob Shapiro: Yeah.

528
00:25:46,665 --> 00:25:49,125
And I mean, and maybe the
precedent was already set.

529
00:25:49,125 --> 00:25:51,885
Like I can, I can hear an Israeli
strategist telling me I'm gonna, I'm a

530
00:25:51,885 --> 00:25:55,875
weenie for what I'm about to say, but
I mean, this is a preemptive strike.

531
00:25:56,415 --> 00:26:00,375
Uh, while the, while Iran was negotiating
with the United States like, and yes,

532
00:26:00,375 --> 00:26:05,445
Israel is from a, from a technological
capacity, military capacity is so far

533
00:26:05,445 --> 00:26:08,235
advanced than all of the rivals that
are around it in the Middle East,

534
00:26:08,235 --> 00:26:09,405
that nobody can compete with them.

535
00:26:09,615 --> 00:26:11,355
But that's not always gonna be the case.

536
00:26:11,925 --> 00:26:15,255
Like we, we did our geopolitical power
ranking a couple of episodes ago, and

537
00:26:15,255 --> 00:26:19,785
I left Israel off the top 20 because I
said, I mean, they're there today, but 20,

538
00:26:19,785 --> 00:26:23,535
30 years from now, like, we don't think
that some of these other countries are

539
00:26:23,535 --> 00:26:27,165
gonna be able to develop either nuclear
weapons or drone technologies, or do

540
00:26:27,165 --> 00:26:29,235
the things that Israel is doing to Iran.

541
00:26:29,235 --> 00:26:31,245
And now Israel's done it first.

542
00:26:31,530 --> 00:26:35,850
So, you know, like if, if you, if you are
Iran, or let's say you're Turkey or some

543
00:26:35,850 --> 00:26:39,300
jihadist group in the future, like the
precedent has, al has already been broken.

544
00:26:39,300 --> 00:26:42,510
So I don't know, maybe people don't
care about precedents, but the continued

545
00:26:42,510 --> 00:26:45,480
breakdown of international norms,
which is also part of that Saudi

546
00:26:45,480 --> 00:26:48,090
statement, like the, the rules are gone.

547
00:26:48,120 --> 00:26:49,260
Like, it's okay, fine.

548
00:26:49,260 --> 00:26:50,910
Like go, go like bomb Iran.

549
00:26:50,940 --> 00:26:55,200
There's gonna be no like consequences,
like nobody's going to punish you for it.

550
00:26:55,200 --> 00:26:56,250
And well Iran, nobody's gonna see like,

551
00:26:56,670 --> 00:26:57,600
Marko Papic: yeah, Iran if they

552
00:26:57,600 --> 00:26:58,530
Jacob Shapiro: can, but it's

553
00:26:58,530 --> 00:27:01,140
Marko Papic: up to Iran to punish,
you know, like, and if they can't

554
00:27:01,560 --> 00:27:06,330
then they probably should have,
uh, not supported Hezbollah us.

555
00:27:06,420 --> 00:27:10,050
I mean, you know, like these are
consequences to what Iran does as well.

556
00:27:10,470 --> 00:27:10,530
Yeah.

557
00:27:10,530 --> 00:27:13,740
And that's where, that's where I think,
you know, you can understand this attack

558
00:27:13,740 --> 00:27:18,900
by Israel, even if they cannot actually
hurt fordo, which is where all the

559
00:27:18,900 --> 00:27:23,340
enrichment fci, uh, all the important
centrifuges are for the enrichment.

560
00:27:23,760 --> 00:27:28,080
So I, I don't think that Israel has
managed to overcome technological.

561
00:27:28,860 --> 00:27:30,060
Deficiencies that it has.

562
00:27:30,479 --> 00:27:33,689
Of course, the nuclear program is
also more than just centrifuges.

563
00:27:33,840 --> 00:27:34,080
It's

564
00:27:34,084 --> 00:27:34,860
Jacob Shapiro: people, it's also humans.

565
00:27:34,860 --> 00:27:37,290
They're going after people and they've
been going after people for a while,

566
00:27:37,290 --> 00:27:37,800
Marko Papic: for a while.

567
00:27:37,800 --> 00:27:39,510
That's, that's all, that's, that's fine.

568
00:27:39,510 --> 00:27:42,479
You know, like, I mean, but here's,
but here's the issue though.

569
00:27:43,199 --> 00:27:46,169
We also have to consider domestic
politics of Israel as well.

570
00:27:46,949 --> 00:27:54,899
There's clearly pressure on Netanyahu, uh,
to basically, uh, you know, continue with

571
00:27:54,929 --> 00:27:59,129
aggressive foreign and military policies,
whether in Lebanon, in Gaza or Iran.

572
00:27:59,729 --> 00:28:01,379
Um, he can't survive without that.

573
00:28:02,129 --> 00:28:05,010
There has to be a perpetual
war for him to stay in power.

574
00:28:05,010 --> 00:28:08,520
And the reason I say that
is not to criticize him.

575
00:28:08,520 --> 00:28:09,179
I mean, God bless him.

576
00:28:09,179 --> 00:28:12,719
He can do whatever he wants, you know,
that's, that's his, that's his choice.

577
00:28:13,169 --> 00:28:19,020
The issue though is that he
does over the long term, it,

578
00:28:19,020 --> 00:28:26,159
it doesn't, like his domestic
political logic is likely not this.

579
00:28:27,480 --> 00:28:30,330
It, it is not as beneficial
for Israel in the long term.

580
00:28:31,020 --> 00:28:33,090
And that is something I,
I would point out as well.

581
00:28:33,090 --> 00:28:38,220
I mean, if oftentimes domestic political
logic will impede the geopolitical goals

582
00:28:38,220 --> 00:28:41,850
over the long term, and I think one of
the, one of the problems here is that,

583
00:28:41,880 --> 00:28:46,410
um, it's not clear to me that regime
change would change anything for Israel.

584
00:28:48,880 --> 00:28:49,275
Iran, Iran.

585
00:28:49,275 --> 00:28:49,965
In Iran.

586
00:28:49,965 --> 00:28:50,385
Yes.

587
00:28:50,670 --> 00:28:54,945
And, and, and, and I think, I think
any country in this region is likely

588
00:28:54,945 --> 00:28:58,245
going to want to have a nuclear
weapon like after this attack.

589
00:28:59,025 --> 00:28:59,565
That's,

590
00:28:59,685 --> 00:29:00,135
Jacob Shapiro: yeah.

591
00:29:00,135 --> 00:29:01,485
I mean that, that I think is already true.

592
00:29:01,485 --> 00:29:04,455
I think you're underplaying the
potential significance of regime change.

593
00:29:04,455 --> 00:29:07,425
And I actually think we're seeing
this play out right now with Syria.

594
00:29:07,695 --> 00:29:10,815
I dunno if you saw like a week or two
ago, Netanyahu basically said We want

595
00:29:10,815 --> 00:29:14,655
the United States to broker peace
talks with the new Syrian government.

596
00:29:14,655 --> 00:29:16,515
And Syria seems to be open to it.

597
00:29:17,104 --> 00:29:21,995
Is, uh, I mean, Israel's wanted, you
know, some kind of, you know, Jordan or

598
00:29:21,995 --> 00:29:26,195
Egypt level relationship with Syria since
literally the 1970s and hasn't been able

599
00:29:26,195 --> 00:29:29,254
to get it because Assad was, you know,
sort of sticking to those old things.

600
00:29:29,254 --> 00:29:33,155
So if you can, and you know, now Syria
is led by some former Jihadists, uh,

601
00:29:33,425 --> 00:29:36,875
and like, they're gonna be willing
to sit down with Israel to reach some

602
00:29:36,875 --> 00:29:38,074
kind of agreement, probably, yes.

603
00:29:38,074 --> 00:29:39,695
'cause they don't want to
keep getting bombed by their

604
00:29:39,695 --> 00:29:40,804
more sophisticated neighbor.

605
00:29:40,804 --> 00:29:43,054
They're gonna play a
longer game going forward.

606
00:29:43,054 --> 00:29:47,044
But I think if you, if you could take
down like the theocratic, you know,

607
00:29:47,104 --> 00:29:50,645
thuggish element that runs Iran,
and if you could get secularists and

608
00:29:50,645 --> 00:29:55,925
power, I mean, that would be pretty
powerful for, for Israel, I think.

609
00:29:55,925 --> 00:29:57,604
I think that would be a really big deal.

610
00:29:57,935 --> 00:30:00,215
Marko Papic: I think, I think
that is the conventional view.

611
00:30:00,814 --> 00:30:04,655
I think that is the Israeli view,
and I think that, uh, in a way

612
00:30:04,655 --> 00:30:08,945
that's going to probably allow the
regime in Iran to survive longer.

613
00:30:09,425 --> 00:30:12,965
Because again, it's not Lebanon,
it's not Gaza, it's a place,

614
00:30:12,995 --> 00:30:14,165
it's a very large place.

615
00:30:14,165 --> 00:30:15,754
You can hide in a lot of different places.

616
00:30:16,320 --> 00:30:19,020
The idea that Israel is gonna be able
to take a, I just don't see that.

617
00:30:19,020 --> 00:30:20,670
But you know, I could
be wrong o obviously.

618
00:30:21,210 --> 00:30:23,070
Jacob Shapiro: Well, I don't know,
but like, let, let's say that they,

619
00:30:23,070 --> 00:30:26,040
let's say for the sake of argument
that they can, like if, let's say

620
00:30:26,040 --> 00:30:29,340
they assassinate the supreme leader
and the president in the next strike.

621
00:30:29,340 --> 00:30:29,985
I'm not saying it, you find other.

622
00:30:31,785 --> 00:30:35,415
Well, do you find other ones
or do or or do people rise

623
00:30:35,415 --> 00:30:36,705
up and say, we're replacing?

624
00:30:36,765 --> 00:30:39,585
'cause there's already factions
waiting for this, waiting to fight

625
00:30:39,585 --> 00:30:41,025
it out when the supreme leader dies.

626
00:30:41,025 --> 00:30:42,525
Like there's internal incoherence Yes.

627
00:30:42,525 --> 00:30:44,685
Within the Iranian political
establishment already.

628
00:30:44,685 --> 00:30:44,985
Marko Papic: He's very old.

629
00:30:44,985 --> 00:30:45,195
Ands sick.

630
00:30:45,195 --> 00:30:45,255
Yeah.

631
00:30:45,580 --> 00:30:48,405
Jacob Shapiro: And you know, the, and
he's also been trying to, you know,

632
00:30:48,405 --> 00:30:52,065
put his son forward to replace him,
which is like, wow, like the Iranian

633
00:30:52,065 --> 00:30:53,835
revolution only took 40 years to die.

634
00:30:53,835 --> 00:30:56,595
Like, the whole idea was we're not
gonna have monarchies in the Shah

635
00:30:56,595 --> 00:30:58,185
passing things down to his stupid son.

636
00:30:58,185 --> 00:30:58,605
Like, okay.

637
00:30:58,605 --> 00:31:02,025
So now the Supreme leadership passes
down, like through hereditary means.

638
00:31:02,475 --> 00:31:05,445
Um, which, which has gotten a
lot of pushback there as well.

639
00:31:05,445 --> 00:31:08,475
But also think back to the Rouhani
government and how Rouhani was trying

640
00:31:08,475 --> 00:31:12,855
to take the reins away from the IRGC and
he got his sort of hand slapped on it.

641
00:31:12,855 --> 00:31:15,435
I was also, I was talking to
this, uh, Iranian security expert

642
00:31:15,435 --> 00:31:18,615
before we got on, and he talked
about to him one of the most.

643
00:31:18,875 --> 00:31:21,575
Impressive things about what Israel
was doing was a sophisticated

644
00:31:21,575 --> 00:31:26,735
social media campaign in Persian
going after Iranian social media.

645
00:31:26,765 --> 00:31:30,785
And he said there were basically two
like feelings on Iranian social media.

646
00:31:30,785 --> 00:31:31,865
One was, this is not good.

647
00:31:31,865 --> 00:31:33,125
We don't wanna be attacked by Israel.

648
00:31:33,125 --> 00:31:34,955
You, you know, sort of
rally around the flag thing.

649
00:31:35,165 --> 00:31:38,465
But the second aspect he said was there
was also this very real undercurrent

650
00:31:38,465 --> 00:31:42,575
of, well, we don't care if the IRGC
commander gets got, he was killing

651
00:31:42,575 --> 00:31:46,205
young Iranian protesters in the streets
as recently as a couple of months ago.

652
00:31:46,205 --> 00:31:49,865
And this supreme leader guy who's trying
to basically put the Shah back on top

653
00:31:49,865 --> 00:31:54,215
of us, except with Shiite theocratic,
you know, antiquated ideas, eh, like

654
00:31:54,215 --> 00:31:57,035
would we really be that sat like,
yes, we'll have our problems with

655
00:31:57,035 --> 00:32:02,015
Israel, but like there's also like
some level of, okay, like this is okay.

656
00:32:02,015 --> 00:32:04,325
Like, it's not like we love this
regime that much and that there

657
00:32:04,325 --> 00:32:05,555
aren't internal tensions there.

658
00:32:05,555 --> 00:32:08,645
And for, for Israel, if you could
just, like, I'm not saying you're

659
00:32:08,645 --> 00:32:11,735
gonna make Iran your best friend, but
if you could at least get it from.

660
00:32:12,060 --> 00:32:12,990
Hey, you're the great Satan.

661
00:32:12,990 --> 00:32:14,940
We're gonna wipe you off the
face of the earth to little.

662
00:32:14,940 --> 00:32:15,840
Hey, we're not friends.

663
00:32:15,840 --> 00:32:16,800
Let's have negotiations.

664
00:32:16,800 --> 00:32:17,250
Little Satan.

665
00:32:17,250 --> 00:32:17,580
Let's be,

666
00:32:17,580 --> 00:32:18,149
Marko Papic: let's be clear.

667
00:32:18,720 --> 00:32:20,700
But listen, yeah, little
I hear, I hear all that.

668
00:32:20,700 --> 00:32:23,070
It's just that that's just not
the way the world works, though.

669
00:32:23,879 --> 00:32:25,020
It does in the long term.

670
00:32:25,110 --> 00:32:25,950
It does in the long term.

671
00:32:25,950 --> 00:32:30,780
But like, I would have to dig
deep into the historical bag to

672
00:32:30,780 --> 00:32:33,360
find a case where something like
that happens during the conflict.

673
00:32:34,320 --> 00:32:35,790
Jacob Shapiro: You don't
think Syria qualify?

674
00:32:35,790 --> 00:32:37,260
I guess Syria was a longer thing over

675
00:32:37,260 --> 00:32:37,350
Marko Papic: time.

676
00:32:37,350 --> 00:32:40,320
It just doesn't, it's been like,
first of all, Asad didn't have control

677
00:32:40,320 --> 00:32:43,170
over more than 50% of the territory.

678
00:32:43,470 --> 00:32:45,810
It was, there was a civil war,
there was a militant group.

679
00:32:46,350 --> 00:32:49,770
Um, it's not like Israel
caused regime change in Syria.

680
00:32:50,790 --> 00:32:52,050
You know, they aided it.

681
00:32:52,260 --> 00:32:56,850
They were great participant in it, but
there was clearly a civil war since 2011.

682
00:32:58,425 --> 00:33:00,360
Jacob Shapiro: So, so what
about, what about Japan?

683
00:33:00,690 --> 00:33:01,470
1945.

684
00:33:01,950 --> 00:33:02,460
Marko Papic: Okay, fine.

685
00:33:02,550 --> 00:33:02,970
Yes.

686
00:33:03,450 --> 00:33:04,560
Great example, Jacob.

687
00:33:05,580 --> 00:33:13,800
I will, I will concede once Israel nukes
Iran and invades it with a million men.

688
00:33:15,720 --> 00:33:16,230
Yes.

689
00:33:16,710 --> 00:33:18,030
So this is, this is my point.

690
00:33:18,030 --> 00:33:20,490
Like, but but listen, but
listen, here's, here's a counter.

691
00:33:20,790 --> 00:33:21,389
Here's a counter.

692
00:33:21,840 --> 00:33:21,930
Mm-hmm.

693
00:33:22,950 --> 00:33:24,960
They kind of both supports
my view and your view.

694
00:33:25,409 --> 00:33:28,050
1999 NATO air campaign against Serbia.

695
00:33:28,050 --> 00:33:28,110
Hmm.

696
00:33:29,340 --> 00:33:29,580
Okay.

697
00:33:30,210 --> 00:33:36,060
I can tell you it definitely did not
in the moment incite and any anti

698
00:33:36,060 --> 00:33:42,930
mil sentiment, even pro-democracy,
liberal people in Belgrade were

699
00:33:42,930 --> 00:33:47,820
standing on bridges with little
targets saying to Nate Obamas right.

700
00:33:48,060 --> 00:33:53,850
But basically 12 months later, you know,
when you took stock of the situation

701
00:33:53,850 --> 00:33:55,440
and said, what was all this for?

702
00:33:55,980 --> 00:33:59,370
There was the revolution
in October of 2000.

703
00:34:01,035 --> 00:34:01,305
Yeah.

704
00:34:01,335 --> 00:34:04,215
So my, but, but that's, that's
a different situation too.

705
00:34:04,215 --> 00:34:09,195
I mean, like, you know, Serbia
took on the entire alliance of nato

706
00:34:10,784 --> 00:34:12,705
and NATO can do a lot of damage.

707
00:34:13,605 --> 00:34:16,965
Israel can't, Israel cannot
do that level of damage.

708
00:34:16,965 --> 00:34:18,500
So my, my question, unless,

709
00:34:18,645 --> 00:34:19,545
Jacob Shapiro: unless it nukes them,

710
00:34:20,205 --> 00:34:20,475
Marko Papic: right?

711
00:34:20,475 --> 00:34:21,074
Well, yeah.

712
00:34:21,165 --> 00:34:21,465
Okay.

713
00:34:21,614 --> 00:34:21,975
Yes.

714
00:34:22,065 --> 00:34:25,364
Uh, but, but my, my point, my point is
that even in that situation, it took

715
00:34:25,364 --> 00:34:30,045
some time before people took that stock
of like, Hey, what was this all for?

716
00:34:30,045 --> 00:34:33,255
So I'm not saying that regime change
can't come as a result of this.

717
00:34:33,645 --> 00:34:36,014
I just think it will be sometime later.

718
00:34:36,375 --> 00:34:41,804
This is one of the many moments
in Iran's story that lead to the

719
00:34:41,804 --> 00:34:44,625
realization by the vast majority
of the people in that country.

720
00:34:44,625 --> 00:34:45,824
Like, this is stupid.

721
00:34:46,125 --> 00:34:48,764
Like, we can't, we can't even
retaliate against Israel.

722
00:34:48,764 --> 00:34:50,324
So what's the whole point of all this?

723
00:34:50,804 --> 00:34:51,105
You know?

724
00:34:51,105 --> 00:34:54,045
And I think that that's, that's possible.

725
00:34:54,045 --> 00:34:58,680
I just, I, I would rather kind of focus,
I. Because it's a more of a longer term

726
00:34:58,680 --> 00:35:00,150
team and it's not gonna happen overnight.

727
00:35:00,690 --> 00:35:00,810
Mm-hmm.

728
00:35:01,049 --> 00:35:05,790
Um, Iran is a more sophisticated political
system than like Gaza or Hezbollah.

729
00:35:05,790 --> 00:35:07,620
And I, and I just feel a
lot of commentary today.

730
00:35:07,620 --> 00:35:11,370
It's like if they just put some page of
bombs in pagers, you know, like, no, it's,

731
00:35:11,370 --> 00:35:12,870
it's gonna be more difficult than that.

732
00:35:13,770 --> 00:35:18,180
Nonetheless, for all their sophistication,
size, strength, inherent kind of

733
00:35:18,180 --> 00:35:22,740
geopolitical value, like their S3
hundreds are clearly completely useless.

734
00:35:23,190 --> 00:35:26,430
Their air defense system, the
surface to air LS three hundreds

735
00:35:26,430 --> 00:35:31,290
they got from Russia fairly
sophisticated, has not ha made a dent.

736
00:35:31,859 --> 00:35:35,520
As you pointed out, Israel can pretty
much fly in and out, you know, it can

737
00:35:35,520 --> 00:35:39,120
be just like a routine flight for their
fighter jets, you know, across the region.

738
00:35:39,600 --> 00:35:43,140
Um, and that's a real problem
because what do you do at this point?

739
00:35:43,500 --> 00:35:47,549
They're kind of like North Korea,
Iran is kind of like North Korea,

740
00:35:47,549 --> 00:35:48,509
and let me explain what I mean.

741
00:35:48,690 --> 00:35:52,440
There's very few ways to
retaliate in limited way.

742
00:35:52,995 --> 00:35:56,475
Yeah, you, you either, you
know, fly some drones to Israel,

743
00:35:56,475 --> 00:35:58,095
which Israel just destroys.

744
00:35:58,995 --> 00:36:03,825
Or you go for broke and you shut down the
streets, or for most, and then, yes, we

745
00:36:03,825 --> 00:36:08,055
should talk about regime change because
once the US starts using something that

746
00:36:08,055 --> 00:36:14,055
Israel does not have, which is long range
strategic bombers, you're cooked, you're

747
00:36:14,055 --> 00:36:17,685
completely and utterly cooked, and at that
point you are risking regime survival.

748
00:36:19,095 --> 00:36:22,725
You can block off the straits of
ramus while done, you know, because

749
00:36:22,785 --> 00:36:27,465
civilian shipping, again, can't really
evade anti-ship cruise missiles,

750
00:36:27,495 --> 00:36:29,355
which Iran has, can't really evade.

751
00:36:29,355 --> 00:36:33,495
Even little dinghies, you know, little
zodiac boats with like a dude with

752
00:36:33,495 --> 00:36:37,965
a, with a shoulder launch surface
to air missile, like whatever, like,

753
00:36:38,384 --> 00:36:40,424
you know, it's, it's a real problem.

754
00:36:40,800 --> 00:36:43,920
Jacob Shapiro: Yeah, well, but, so I, I
think that survive an important question.

755
00:36:43,920 --> 00:36:44,070
Survive.

756
00:36:44,070 --> 00:36:45,900
I think that's an important
question that you just landed on.

757
00:36:45,900 --> 00:36:48,360
So let me rephrase it back at you
because one of my clients this morning

758
00:36:48,360 --> 00:36:52,230
asked me, you know, what are American
options today after what's happened?

759
00:36:52,680 --> 00:36:57,120
And I said, okay, there's basically
four they can join in and completely

760
00:36:57,120 --> 00:36:58,920
wipe out Iran and lead to regime change.

761
00:36:58,920 --> 00:37:01,860
Like that's one, um, they can
covertly support it, but not

762
00:37:01,860 --> 00:37:03,030
sort of publicly be there.

763
00:37:03,030 --> 00:37:05,790
So try and, you know, let, let
Israel take as many licks as

764
00:37:05,790 --> 00:37:07,500
they want, but not get involved.

765
00:37:07,620 --> 00:37:08,430
They can stay out of it.

766
00:37:08,460 --> 00:37:10,290
They can be truly isolationist.

767
00:37:10,290 --> 00:37:12,450
And, you know, the,
the Rubio statement or.

768
00:37:13,335 --> 00:37:16,965
Uh, maybe the donnall is angling
for his Nobel Peace Prize.

769
00:37:17,025 --> 00:37:18,765
They come in as the great peacemaker.

770
00:37:18,915 --> 00:37:20,985
They say, we have made peace
between Iran and Israel.

771
00:37:20,985 --> 00:37:23,835
We're gonna tariff both of you
unless you stop throwing the missiles

772
00:37:23,835 --> 00:37:24,855
and the drones at each other.

773
00:37:24,855 --> 00:37:27,195
Sit down against the
table and figure this out.

774
00:37:27,795 --> 00:37:30,105
I'm asking you the question
there is, where do you think the

775
00:37:30,105 --> 00:37:31,125
United States goes from here?

776
00:37:31,125 --> 00:37:34,455
Do you think the United States
wanted this and like, wanted the

777
00:37:34,455 --> 00:37:36,465
excuse that Israel's opening for it?

778
00:37:36,465 --> 00:37:39,555
Or do you think that the United States
was like, okay, we'll use Israeli

779
00:37:39,555 --> 00:37:43,545
aggressiveness to get to what we really
wanted, which is a deal with this regime?

780
00:37:45,225 --> 00:37:49,845
Marko Papic: I mean, I trust President
Trump where he, when he tweets, sorry.

781
00:37:49,875 --> 00:37:50,385
I do.

782
00:37:51,855 --> 00:37:53,895
So I don't think that he
wanted this, 'cause he said

783
00:37:53,895 --> 00:37:55,845
that, and that is a problem.

784
00:37:56,985 --> 00:38:00,585
That's why his tweet, that's why his
statements today are so aggressive.

785
00:38:00,585 --> 00:38:06,195
Marco Rubio's statement when this
happened was very terse like,

786
00:38:06,255 --> 00:38:09,705
no statement about supporting
Israel's rights to self defense.

787
00:38:10,125 --> 00:38:10,365
Mm-hmm.

788
00:38:10,455 --> 00:38:11,625
Zero, zero.

789
00:38:12,285 --> 00:38:14,865
It was like, Hey, America
was not participant in this.

790
00:38:15,195 --> 00:38:15,345
Jacob Shapiro: Yeah.

791
00:38:15,345 --> 00:38:17,625
The, the French statement
was friendlier towards Israel

792
00:38:17,625 --> 00:38:18,795
than Marco Rubio's statement.

793
00:38:19,275 --> 00:38:19,545
Marko Papic: Right.

794
00:38:21,165 --> 00:38:24,285
And then the next day Trump
is saying like, aha, I told

795
00:38:24,285 --> 00:38:26,595
you so better make a deal.

796
00:38:27,765 --> 00:38:31,154
And it's like, eh, I don't
like, that's bravado.

797
00:38:31,605 --> 00:38:31,965
Right?

798
00:38:31,965 --> 00:38:34,634
Because this is embarrassing
for the US actually.

799
00:38:35,895 --> 00:38:39,855
It shows it can't control
its vessels, you know?

800
00:38:39,884 --> 00:38:42,735
And Israel is effectively
saying, we're not your vessel.

801
00:38:43,755 --> 00:38:45,165
You know, we're gonna do whatever we want.

802
00:38:45,225 --> 00:38:45,735
And that's

803
00:38:46,275 --> 00:38:46,395
Jacob Shapiro: you.

804
00:38:46,395 --> 00:38:49,965
You don't believe the, the conspiracy
theory that actually, like the United

805
00:38:49,965 --> 00:38:51,705
States wanted Israel to do this secretly,

806
00:38:52,005 --> 00:38:53,924
Marko Papic: one of, one of
the greatest Salt Park episodes

807
00:38:55,185 --> 00:38:56,505
is the one about nine 11.

808
00:38:58,065 --> 00:39:03,884
It's when the boys find out
that nine 11 was an inside job.

809
00:39:05,235 --> 00:39:05,715
Mm-hmm.

810
00:39:06,360 --> 00:39:06,580
And.

811
00:39:07,635 --> 00:39:13,485
They pursue this to, to, to its core
and George W. Bush and the cabinet

812
00:39:13,545 --> 00:39:18,465
basically imprisons them because they
find out that it wasn't an inside

813
00:39:18,465 --> 00:39:22,575
job, but they find out that the US
government is propagating the myth.

814
00:39:23,145 --> 00:39:25,245
The day blew up the Twin towers.

815
00:39:26,325 --> 00:39:30,525
And so the, the boys confront George
W. Bush in the episode and they're

816
00:39:30,525 --> 00:39:33,045
like, why are you propagating
the rumor that you did this?

817
00:39:33,645 --> 00:39:36,105
And George W. Bush says,
an incredible statement.

818
00:39:36,105 --> 00:39:39,075
And by the way, if you're a conspiracy
theorist, you have to watch this to

819
00:39:39,075 --> 00:39:40,515
cleanse yourself of that stupidity.

820
00:39:43,365 --> 00:39:46,815
And George W. Bush looks at the
little boys and says, if people

821
00:39:46,815 --> 00:39:50,835
don't think that we did it,
they'll think we're incompetent.

822
00:39:52,965 --> 00:39:55,545
If they find out that a
bunch of dudes in caves.

823
00:39:56,220 --> 00:39:59,700
Destroyed the Twin
Towers in New York City.

824
00:40:00,000 --> 00:40:02,460
They'll think that we, the
US government is incompetent.

825
00:40:02,460 --> 00:40:05,400
So yes, we're propagating these rumors.

826
00:40:05,460 --> 00:40:06,480
So this is South Park.

827
00:40:06,960 --> 00:40:09,120
Jacob Shapiro: South Park is truly
the brothers car of, of our time.

828
00:40:09,120 --> 00:40:12,270
This is basically the grand inquisitor
updated with to, uh, you know, when I

829
00:40:12,270 --> 00:40:13,319
was doing my things that are happening

830
00:40:13,319 --> 00:40:13,529
Marko Papic: right now.

831
00:40:13,529 --> 00:40:17,370
Listen, Jacob, when I was doing my PhD,
I, I kept referencing South Park so

832
00:40:17,370 --> 00:40:20,279
much in my, uh, PhD philosophy class.

833
00:40:20,400 --> 00:40:20,549
Yeah.

834
00:40:20,549 --> 00:40:24,569
I had to take philosophy, you know,
for political science, PhD. And, uh, my

835
00:40:24,569 --> 00:40:28,920
professor was just like, can you make
me a DVD of like the greatest hits?

836
00:40:28,920 --> 00:40:35,190
'cause clearly I've missed this in my,
in my academic studies, like, so I agree

837
00:40:35,190 --> 00:40:36,475
with you, but, but here's what I'm saying.

838
00:40:36,654 --> 00:40:39,810
Of course Trump is gonna say, and
of course the, the media machine

839
00:40:39,810 --> 00:40:43,799
in America is gonna say like, oh,
we knew ha ha, yeah, we've been

840
00:40:43,799 --> 00:40:45,720
in on this planet from day one.

841
00:40:45,930 --> 00:40:46,620
That's the whole thing.

842
00:40:46,680 --> 00:40:47,700
We're not incompetent.

843
00:40:48,690 --> 00:40:52,200
Our ally, Israel didn't just
do something behind our back

844
00:40:52,260 --> 00:40:54,210
embarrassing us, quite frankly.

845
00:40:54,240 --> 00:40:56,730
'cause we were about to meet
with Iranians on Sunday.

846
00:40:56,730 --> 00:40:56,790
Yeah.

847
00:40:57,330 --> 00:41:00,540
So I, I believe none of these
rumors, and I don't care.

848
00:41:00,540 --> 00:41:02,820
Like we could have Marco
Rubio on this podcast.

849
00:41:02,820 --> 00:41:04,230
You'll be like, no, Marco, you don't know.

850
00:41:04,230 --> 00:41:05,130
I'm like, shut up.

851
00:41:05,610 --> 00:41:06,090
I do know.

852
00:41:06,690 --> 00:41:07,230
Fuck off.

853
00:41:07,560 --> 00:41:07,980
Of course.

854
00:41:07,980 --> 00:41:08,220
Yeah.

855
00:41:08,430 --> 00:41:08,760
Oh yeah.

856
00:41:08,760 --> 00:41:10,080
You guys were like in on it.

857
00:41:10,110 --> 00:41:10,710
No, you weren't.

858
00:41:11,520 --> 00:41:12,060
Jacob Shapiro: You got spoiled.

859
00:41:12,060 --> 00:41:13,800
That would be fun actually,
to have to have little Marco.

860
00:41:13,800 --> 00:41:14,820
And you can be big Marco.

861
00:41:14,820 --> 00:41:14,970
I guess.

862
00:41:14,970 --> 00:41:17,010
Marko Papic: I guess I could,
I mean, by, I guess so.

863
00:41:17,640 --> 00:41:18,120
I don't know.

864
00:41:18,125 --> 00:41:19,290
I, I don't think he's that little.

865
00:41:19,290 --> 00:41:20,160
I think that's unfair.

866
00:41:20,370 --> 00:41:21,990
But listen, here's my point.

867
00:41:22,020 --> 00:41:22,800
Of course,

868
00:41:25,140 --> 00:41:25,530
of course.

869
00:41:25,530 --> 00:41:26,130
They didn't know.

870
00:41:26,370 --> 00:41:28,020
They got caught completely unaware.

871
00:41:28,020 --> 00:41:29,550
So what do you think is
gonna happen the next day?

872
00:41:29,550 --> 00:41:30,600
Like, uh, no.

873
00:41:30,600 --> 00:41:33,810
They're gonna be like, yeah, we were,
of course we knew, like, remember

874
00:41:34,080 --> 00:41:35,790
what Trump was like, heads up.

875
00:41:35,865 --> 00:41:36,734
Heads up.

876
00:41:36,734 --> 00:41:38,415
Well, and I, and I think Trump, we do

877
00:41:38,444 --> 00:41:40,845
Jacob Shapiro: Trump to, to, you
know, a point we've made over and over

878
00:41:40,845 --> 00:41:42,645
again, like Trump has many faults.

879
00:41:42,645 --> 00:41:44,834
He's a master at social
media and positioning.

880
00:41:44,834 --> 00:41:44,924
Yeah.

881
00:41:44,924 --> 00:41:47,595
He's positioned, you know, the United
States to make it seem like he knew

882
00:41:47,595 --> 00:41:50,984
what was going all along and this was
good, but like now he has a choice.

883
00:41:50,984 --> 00:41:53,745
Does he use that to, at least in
his truth, social post, it was

884
00:41:53,745 --> 00:41:56,265
about all right, like you have to
negotiate or else you're gonna die.

885
00:41:56,475 --> 00:41:56,595
Well,

886
00:41:56,595 --> 00:41:58,785
Marko Papic: the problem with that,
you know what the problem with that is?

887
00:41:58,910 --> 00:42:02,265
What the problem with that Jacob is, if
I'm Iran, I'm like, bro, come on man.

888
00:42:02,745 --> 00:42:08,564
I just listened to geopolitical
cousins and Marco is right.

889
00:42:08,924 --> 00:42:09,645
You didn't know.

890
00:42:10,064 --> 00:42:13,395
And if you don't know, how can you
guarantee to me that you can stop Israel?

891
00:42:13,575 --> 00:42:16,665
If I make a deal with you,
deal with you, oh, okay, cool.

892
00:42:16,694 --> 00:42:19,455
We're gonna make a deal and I'm
gonna get to keep my nuclear

893
00:42:19,455 --> 00:42:20,745
program for civilian uses.

894
00:42:20,745 --> 00:42:22,035
What if it's not there?

895
00:42:22,035 --> 00:42:27,854
Because Israel, your vassal
state keeps bonding me.

896
00:42:28,095 --> 00:42:31,964
Like if you cannot control Israel,
so this is the problem for the

897
00:42:31,964 --> 00:42:35,024
US if they cannot control Israel.

898
00:42:36,120 --> 00:42:37,920
How can they make a deal with Iran?

899
00:42:39,330 --> 00:42:43,020
And so that's why this is not just
a, a, a funny little question,

900
00:42:43,110 --> 00:42:46,830
you know, where we're like, Hey,
like, hey, what did America know?

901
00:42:46,860 --> 00:42:48,060
Oh, watch South Park, you know?

902
00:42:48,240 --> 00:42:50,940
No, I mean, it's actually very
critical to this whole situation.

903
00:42:51,450 --> 00:42:55,560
Israel is fronting as if
they're gonna continue this

904
00:42:55,560 --> 00:42:57,450
operation for the next two weeks.

905
00:42:57,660 --> 00:42:58,800
That's what Netanyahu said.

906
00:42:58,800 --> 00:43:00,870
This is not a one day operation.

907
00:43:01,620 --> 00:43:06,150
And the US is supposed to meet in
musket in Oman, with Iranian officials.

908
00:43:06,150 --> 00:43:09,090
And by the way, the, the, the
hilarious part of this is us,

909
00:43:09,090 --> 00:43:10,110
is like, we're still coming.

910
00:43:11,340 --> 00:43:11,490
Jacob Shapiro: Yeah.

911
00:43:11,490 --> 00:43:14,610
And the Iranians were supposed to come,
might be dead, they might not be alive.

912
00:43:14,640 --> 00:43:14,790
How

913
00:43:14,790 --> 00:43:16,740
Marko Papic: do I get to musket, bro?

914
00:43:16,980 --> 00:43:20,730
Like I, if I get in a plane,
am I gonna land in Oman?

915
00:43:21,600 --> 00:43:25,980
Like, you know, like there's, Israelis
are buzzing around me, like hornets.

916
00:43:26,070 --> 00:43:27,930
I'm gonna get in the plane and go to Oman.

917
00:43:28,859 --> 00:43:31,890
You can't, you don't know what's
going on in the region, America.

918
00:43:32,009 --> 00:43:34,350
This is what I, I'm now being Iran, right?

919
00:43:34,350 --> 00:43:36,600
Like America, you don't, you have
no idea what's going on here.

920
00:43:36,870 --> 00:43:39,930
You want me to get on the plane and
cross the Persian Gulf and land in Oman?

921
00:43:40,350 --> 00:43:40,830
In Musco?

922
00:43:40,830 --> 00:43:40,890
Yeah.

923
00:43:41,129 --> 00:43:42,000
So I can meet with you.

924
00:43:42,000 --> 00:43:42,689
For what reason?

925
00:43:42,689 --> 00:43:43,919
You can't control Israel.

926
00:43:44,100 --> 00:43:46,379
Why would I continue these negotiations?

927
00:43:46,379 --> 00:43:52,470
And this is where, this is where
what Israel did is truly pernicious

928
00:43:52,470 --> 00:43:53,700
from an American perspective.

929
00:43:55,830 --> 00:43:59,490
And I do think so when we think about
this from a profound level, like

930
00:43:59,490 --> 00:44:03,600
what's profound about this attack, it's
the break between Israel and the us.

931
00:44:04,140 --> 00:44:06,330
I don't buy for one second.

932
00:44:06,690 --> 00:44:10,080
The US was aware of this
operation for weeks.

933
00:44:10,230 --> 00:44:14,670
Now there's a talk how it lulled Iran
to sleep by continuing to negotiation.

934
00:44:14,670 --> 00:44:15,569
Shut up again.

935
00:44:15,569 --> 00:44:16,770
Watch South Park episode.

936
00:44:16,770 --> 00:44:21,180
This is America just trying to make
itself look like they weren't completely

937
00:44:21,180 --> 00:44:22,440
unaware of what was gonna happen.

938
00:44:23,129 --> 00:44:23,580
Jacob Shapiro: No, now it is.

939
00:44:24,180 --> 00:44:26,279
I don't mean, I think, I think credit
to the Israelis, like there was a

940
00:44:26,279 --> 00:44:29,160
psychological warfare aspect where
they lulled the Iranians to Yeah,

941
00:44:29,160 --> 00:44:29,490
Marko Papic: for sure.

942
00:44:29,490 --> 00:44:33,270
I, I, you know, obviously, but they
loved Americans as well, and I think

943
00:44:33,270 --> 00:44:37,170
the problem now is how can you be
a credible negotiator, you know?

944
00:44:37,200 --> 00:44:37,470
Jacob Shapiro: Mm-hmm.

945
00:44:38,640 --> 00:44:41,069
Yeah, I have, I have two lighthearted
points and then a more serious one.

946
00:44:41,069 --> 00:44:43,649
The first is when you were talking
about Israel, like wanting to bring the

947
00:44:43,649 --> 00:44:47,250
United States in, it's ironic because
that's basically the reverse Al-Qaeda,

948
00:44:47,279 --> 00:44:50,279
like that was Al-Qaeda's strategy,
like bomb the World Trade Centers,

949
00:44:50,279 --> 00:44:52,890
and then you're gonna invite a bigger
response and then people are gonna

950
00:44:52,890 --> 00:44:54,450
overthrow the regime that you don't like.

951
00:44:54,450 --> 00:44:58,290
So funny to see the Israelis taking a
pic, uh, page out of Osama's, uh, book.

952
00:44:58,620 --> 00:45:01,919
And then also have, have you, has
it struck you that like Israel is

953
00:45:01,919 --> 00:45:03,870
the real MAGA actor in the world?

954
00:45:03,870 --> 00:45:07,290
Like in the last week they've bombed the
shit out of Iran and have arrested Greta

955
00:45:07,290 --> 00:45:10,709
Thunberg and embarrassed her and then
like, you know, sent her back to Sweden

956
00:45:10,709 --> 00:45:12,060
without her lunch money or whatever.

957
00:45:12,060 --> 00:45:14,910
Like, I think they're the ones that
are really doubling down on this.

958
00:45:14,910 --> 00:45:18,480
But the, the deeper point I wanted to say
was, and this is the part that makes me

959
00:45:18,480 --> 00:45:20,370
nervous about what, what happens next?

960
00:45:20,399 --> 00:45:20,459
Um.

961
00:45:21,404 --> 00:45:23,745
Because I, I, I think we're in agreement,
I think on most of the things that

962
00:45:23,745 --> 00:45:26,745
we talked about, but it seems to me
that Iran's back is against the wall.

963
00:45:26,924 --> 00:45:28,365
They have no good options.

964
00:45:28,395 --> 00:45:29,384
They're screwed.

965
00:45:29,685 --> 00:45:32,955
And to your point, they can't, even,
the negotiation with the United States

966
00:45:32,955 --> 00:45:34,725
is not something they can credibly do.

967
00:45:34,964 --> 00:45:37,815
To your point just now about
Israel, you can't control, you

968
00:45:37,815 --> 00:45:39,315
know, your dog is off the leash.

969
00:45:39,315 --> 00:45:42,194
Like, there's this, this Israeli actor
that's just gonna keep bombing us.

970
00:45:42,194 --> 00:45:43,424
Why should we make any deal?

971
00:45:43,785 --> 00:45:46,245
And it seems to me that if they're
truly desperate and if they have

972
00:45:46,305 --> 00:45:50,234
any nuclear material to go with, or
any kind of last ditch effort, like,

973
00:45:50,984 --> 00:45:53,504
can they just really sit, maybe they
sit there and take the punishment.

974
00:45:53,504 --> 00:45:56,174
Maybe I'm like underestimating
that as a potential choice.

975
00:45:56,180 --> 00:45:56,475
It, it

976
00:45:56,475 --> 00:45:57,134
Marko Papic: depends.

977
00:45:58,095 --> 00:45:59,115
I mean, yes, I, I hear you.

978
00:45:59,115 --> 00:46:04,065
I think it depends what the US now
offers them and how much, uh, you

979
00:46:04,065 --> 00:46:10,154
know, look, I think, I think that
this was 80% domestic politics, 20%

980
00:46:10,154 --> 00:46:11,774
strategy, to be honest with you.

981
00:46:12,435 --> 00:46:12,674
Hmm.

982
00:46:13,154 --> 00:46:14,085
On Israel's part.

983
00:46:16,035 --> 00:46:18,345
So that's, you know, that's my view.

984
00:46:19,080 --> 00:46:24,240
Uh, I think that Benjamin Netanyahu had
to do this for domestic political reasons.

985
00:46:24,750 --> 00:46:24,870
Jacob Shapiro: Yeah.

986
00:46:24,870 --> 00:46:27,720
I mean, he, you know, he had some,
his far right religious partners were

987
00:46:27,720 --> 00:46:28,890
talking about leaving the coalition.

988
00:46:28,890 --> 00:46:30,780
So you're not, you're on
firm ground, you're on terra

989
00:46:30,780 --> 00:46:31,620
firma there, and he, and if

990
00:46:31,775 --> 00:46:34,500
Marko Papic: he, if he loses power,
who knows what happens to him.

991
00:46:34,500 --> 00:46:38,520
So I think that, you know, like I, I
buy that conspiracy theory, if you will.

992
00:46:38,970 --> 00:46:40,650
Um, so here's what's gonna happen.

993
00:46:40,650 --> 00:46:43,770
I think, um, there is a path here.

994
00:46:43,770 --> 00:46:48,090
It's a narrow one, but I think
that, um, if he did enough, you

995
00:46:48,090 --> 00:46:52,200
know, then he can tell the Americans
like, okay, go make a deal.

996
00:46:52,230 --> 00:46:53,700
Like, I'll, I'll tone this down.

997
00:46:54,180 --> 00:46:59,010
Like, I'll be amenable now, now that
I've done this and maybe a couple

998
00:46:59,010 --> 00:47:04,710
more days of like some targets, I'm
amenable to being put back into the box.

999
00:47:06,150 --> 00:47:10,050
And that opens up a chance for, uh,
Iran to retaliate against Israel.

1000
00:47:10,710 --> 00:47:12,270
Um, nobody will care about that.

1001
00:47:12,300 --> 00:47:12,750
By the way.

1002
00:47:12,840 --> 00:47:14,460
Nobody like us is not gonna care.

1003
00:47:14,820 --> 00:47:15,660
Like that already happened.

1004
00:47:15,660 --> 00:47:18,180
We already set the threshold for caring.

1005
00:47:18,555 --> 00:47:19,335
It's pretty low.

1006
00:47:20,174 --> 00:47:23,654
Like Israel is going to be under
attack by Iran for the next

1007
00:47:23,654 --> 00:47:26,174
like, couple weeks and you know,
everyone's gonna move on from that.

1008
00:47:26,775 --> 00:47:27,555
The question is, well,

1009
00:47:27,915 --> 00:47:28,904
Jacob Shapiro: in part,
everybody's gonna move on.

1010
00:47:28,904 --> 00:47:30,069
'cause Iran can't seem to do anything.

1011
00:47:30,069 --> 00:47:30,750
Like even last.

1012
00:47:30,750 --> 00:47:31,069
Can't seem to

1013
00:47:31,069 --> 00:47:31,110
Marko Papic: do.

1014
00:47:31,245 --> 00:47:31,485
Yeah.

1015
00:47:31,725 --> 00:47:32,595
So like, why not?

1016
00:47:32,595 --> 00:47:35,295
You know, like last time I
think they attacked Israel.

1017
00:47:35,535 --> 00:47:37,005
They killed a, like a badin.

1018
00:47:37,605 --> 00:47:37,785
Yeah.

1019
00:47:37,964 --> 00:47:39,615
The negative, right?

1020
00:47:39,615 --> 00:47:41,174
They, they, that that's what happened.

1021
00:47:41,174 --> 00:47:45,134
Like a, a piece of shrapnel hit
a poor guy in, in, in the desert.

1022
00:47:45,134 --> 00:47:49,995
So what I would say is, it really depends.

1023
00:47:50,055 --> 00:47:55,065
If it's 80 20 domestic politics, then
Benjamin Yahu walks away from this

1024
00:47:55,065 --> 00:48:01,875
looking tough and concedes to the US
the grounds to negotiate with Iran.

1025
00:48:01,904 --> 00:48:03,674
Like, okay, fine, I did what I need to do.

1026
00:48:04,365 --> 00:48:05,265
I'm gonna stay in power.

1027
00:48:05,265 --> 00:48:08,535
I'm gonna continue with, uh, you
know, securing Israel in my own way.

1028
00:48:08,924 --> 00:48:10,605
You guys go deal with Iran now.

1029
00:48:11,970 --> 00:48:14,250
But that requires, of
course, restraint from Iran.

1030
00:48:14,310 --> 00:48:15,720
And so far we've seen it.

1031
00:48:15,839 --> 00:48:20,819
Uh, the first statement by Iran after
this event happened included America.

1032
00:48:22,770 --> 00:48:26,339
The, the state media also
said that US is responsible.

1033
00:48:26,850 --> 00:48:26,940
Mm-hmm.

1034
00:48:27,180 --> 00:48:28,980
That's what happened
right after the attack.

1035
00:48:29,460 --> 00:48:33,779
The statement today by the foreign
minister clearly focused on Israel,

1036
00:48:34,890 --> 00:48:39,720
the drones that have attacked
Israeli, uh, territory in retaliation.

1037
00:48:39,750 --> 00:48:42,900
Of course, it's just the first
retaliation, but they could have easily

1038
00:48:42,900 --> 00:48:44,819
diverted some to us installations.

1039
00:48:44,819 --> 00:48:45,330
They didn't.

1040
00:48:45,810 --> 00:48:45,900
Mm-hmm.

1041
00:48:46,140 --> 00:48:48,180
Or us, you know, naval
vessels in the Persian Gulf.

1042
00:48:48,180 --> 00:48:49,830
Like there's all sorts
of things they can do.

1043
00:48:49,980 --> 00:48:54,569
To me, to me, the threshold for Iran
and what will tell us whether they're

1044
00:48:54,569 --> 00:48:58,170
open for negotiations or not, is
this, this is what you need to watch.

1045
00:48:58,710 --> 00:49:02,730
If they don't attack naval vessels
in the Persian Gulf that are just

1046
00:49:02,730 --> 00:49:07,650
floating around either American or
civilian tankers, that's important.

1047
00:49:08,520 --> 00:49:12,299
The second is, uh, Saudi energy
facilities, which I highly doubt they

1048
00:49:12,299 --> 00:49:14,009
will, but I'm just putting it out there.

1049
00:49:14,520 --> 00:49:19,500
And then, as I said, the air base
in Qatar that the US shares with the

1050
00:49:19,500 --> 00:49:25,500
Qatari military and then the Fifth
Fleet headquarters in Bahrain in Manama.

1051
00:49:25,500 --> 00:49:28,980
So that, that to me, if, if
they attack those, I think

1052
00:49:28,980 --> 00:49:30,120
that they're going for broke.

1053
00:49:30,359 --> 00:49:34,410
You know, if they don't, if this
is just about Israel and maybe

1054
00:49:34,410 --> 00:49:39,569
some symbolic attack against
some American facilities in Iraq.

1055
00:49:39,779 --> 00:49:43,680
Now, the reason I say that that's not part
of the threshold is our listeners should

1056
00:49:43,680 --> 00:49:48,930
remember that on January 3rd, 2020, the
US assassinated general Soleimani mm-hmm.

1057
00:49:48,930 --> 00:49:55,020
Of the IRGC, Iran retaliated by
attacking American facilities

1058
00:49:55,020 --> 00:49:57,569
in Iraq with cruise missiles.

1059
00:49:58,589 --> 00:50:00,359
And the US did not retaliate.

1060
00:50:00,359 --> 00:50:04,290
In fact, Donald Trump tweeted something
like I. You know, I respect this.

1061
00:50:04,319 --> 00:50:05,880
Like I know they had to retaliate.

1062
00:50:05,880 --> 00:50:12,060
I now consider this matter over Vice
President Harris actually brought that

1063
00:50:12,060 --> 00:50:17,190
statement up in her debates with Trump
to illustrate that he was cavalier

1064
00:50:17,730 --> 00:50:20,490
about American servicemen injuries.

1065
00:50:20,819 --> 00:50:21,450
This actually, you know, I

1066
00:50:21,450 --> 00:50:23,279
Jacob Shapiro: hadn't, I
hadn't thought about her yet.

1067
00:50:23,279 --> 00:50:24,210
I'm glad you brought her up.

1068
00:50:24,210 --> 00:50:25,620
Do you remember her 60 minutes interview?

1069
00:50:25,620 --> 00:50:26,009
Of course, I do.

1070
00:50:26,009 --> 00:50:29,160
Take 60 minutes where she said
Iran was the biggest foreign policy

1071
00:50:29,160 --> 00:50:30,270
threat to the United States course.

1072
00:50:30,270 --> 00:50:32,819
Man, maybe Israelis would've
liked her better than uh, Trump.

1073
00:50:33,089 --> 00:50:37,230
Marko Papic: No, but one thing I would
say, Jacob is in my annual forecast in

1074
00:50:37,230 --> 00:50:40,350
December of 2024, and I hate saying,
uh, you know, like I was right.

1075
00:50:40,529 --> 00:50:45,990
But like, because of that, because of
that 60 minute interview, because of that

1076
00:50:45,990 --> 00:50:49,890
60 minute interview that Harris gave and
because of the increase in enrichment,

1077
00:50:50,190 --> 00:50:56,970
this was the easiest call to make maybe
in my career, to say that kinetic action

1078
00:50:56,970 --> 00:51:00,029
against Iran is the greatest risk in 2025.

1079
00:51:00,975 --> 00:51:04,064
In fact, I went as far as to say
that, uh, annual outlook, that it

1080
00:51:04,064 --> 00:51:09,165
would happen on January 21st, that
the day after Trump's inauguration,

1081
00:51:09,314 --> 00:51:11,714
he would begin conflict with Iran.

1082
00:51:12,884 --> 00:51:15,015
Jacob Shapiro: And if it, if it had
been up to be Benjamin Netanyahu,

1083
00:51:15,015 --> 00:51:16,035
I'm sure that would've happened.

1084
00:51:16,154 --> 00:51:19,935
Marko Papic: And I caveated it by
saying rhetorical or kinetic, you know.

1085
00:51:20,234 --> 00:51:24,105
But what's interesting is that for
six months he kind of, you know, put

1086
00:51:24,105 --> 00:51:26,984
an egg on all of the hawk's faces.

1087
00:51:27,015 --> 00:51:27,464
Not hawks.

1088
00:51:27,464 --> 00:51:29,834
I'm not a hawk, but like a bear.

1089
00:51:29,834 --> 00:51:30,645
Whatever you wanna call me.

1090
00:51:30,645 --> 00:51:30,705
Yeah.

1091
00:51:31,095 --> 00:51:35,234
Like somebody alarmists, alarmists, he
really kind of like took us for a ride

1092
00:51:35,234 --> 00:51:39,765
there for six months negotiating with
Iran much more in a much more conciliatory

1093
00:51:39,765 --> 00:51:41,924
ma way than he he usually does.

1094
00:51:41,924 --> 00:51:44,625
And I would say that in a
way he's to blame for this.

1095
00:51:46,215 --> 00:51:49,485
In that he should have applied his
seven steps to maximum pressure.

1096
00:51:49,515 --> 00:51:51,075
He should have been a lot harder.

1097
00:51:51,315 --> 00:51:55,155
He should have actually done what I said
and been very aggressive on January 21st.

1098
00:51:55,155 --> 00:51:57,645
Killed someone right away like
he did with General Soleimani.

1099
00:51:57,645 --> 00:52:01,605
Yeah, just boom, drone off Somebody
just to send a message to Iran.

1100
00:52:01,605 --> 00:52:02,445
Hey man, I'm serious.

1101
00:52:02,445 --> 00:52:06,555
You can't drag me along the way you
deal with Biden, with his negotiations.

1102
00:52:06,555 --> 00:52:12,675
And I think that the problem is
Donald Trump almost proved why his

1103
00:52:12,675 --> 00:52:16,815
own negotiating style works and
whatever he's been doing for the past

1104
00:52:16,815 --> 00:52:18,525
six months with Iran doesn't work.

1105
00:52:19,635 --> 00:52:24,345
You know, like he lost control of these
negotiations because he was a little bit

1106
00:52:24,345 --> 00:52:28,155
too establishment, a little bit too CFR.

1107
00:52:29,055 --> 00:52:31,665
You know, he, he, he
wasn't Donald Trump enough.

1108
00:52:32,805 --> 00:52:36,675
Uh, remember just a, a little reminder for
everyone listening on January 3rd, 2020

1109
00:52:36,675 --> 00:52:41,055
when they killed Soleimani, the US was
negotiating with Iran at the time in Oman,

1110
00:52:41,745 --> 00:52:44,145
they just killed this guy as a, what's up?

1111
00:52:45,600 --> 00:52:46,950
That's, that's what Donald Trump did.

1112
00:52:47,250 --> 00:52:51,540
I firmly believe that had he won
the 2020 election, there would've

1113
00:52:51,540 --> 00:52:54,480
been a deal with Iran right away,
because Iran was like, oh my God.

1114
00:52:55,230 --> 00:52:57,480
And I think that they themselves
were like, oh, look at this.

1115
00:52:57,480 --> 00:53:02,010
This guy wants peace and he wants low
oil prices, so he's not gonna bomb us.

1116
00:53:02,010 --> 00:53:02,340
You know?

1117
00:53:02,340 --> 00:53:06,660
And I think they, they, they took
that narrative, that meme too far.

1118
00:53:06,840 --> 00:53:11,760
In fact, I had several clients say to me,
but Donald Trump wants to low oil prices.

1119
00:53:12,120 --> 00:53:14,820
And I'm like, look, he
does, but he's not myopic.

1120
00:53:14,880 --> 00:53:16,230
He doesn't need them tomorrow.

1121
00:53:16,380 --> 00:53:19,680
If oil prices go to 120 bucks for a
month, like the world's not gonna end.

1122
00:53:19,740 --> 00:53:20,190
It's not

1123
00:53:20,190 --> 00:53:20,610
Jacob Shapiro: Well, yeah.

1124
00:53:20,670 --> 00:53:23,610
And they're not going, I mean, they were
up 11% when I went to sleep last night.

1125
00:53:23,610 --> 00:53:25,380
They were up six and a
half percent this morning.

1126
00:53:25,380 --> 00:53:25,980
So, well, because

1127
00:53:25,980 --> 00:53:28,260
Marko Papic: Iran is,
because Iran is following.

1128
00:53:28,965 --> 00:53:32,595
The pattern of last year because it's
not retaliating against, you know,

1129
00:53:32,625 --> 00:53:33,975
ways that oil prices will go up.

1130
00:53:34,395 --> 00:53:34,575
Yeah.

1131
00:53:34,755 --> 00:53:36,015
One last thing I wanna say.

1132
00:53:36,315 --> 00:53:38,565
I do also hear a lot of
people say, but wait a minute.

1133
00:53:38,625 --> 00:53:39,855
What does this mean for inflation?

1134
00:53:39,855 --> 00:53:40,275
And so on?

1135
00:53:40,305 --> 00:53:42,435
Don't worry about it, just
do not worry about it.

1136
00:53:42,435 --> 00:53:43,065
And I'll tell you why.

1137
00:53:43,275 --> 00:53:46,845
There's absolutely no way that
any inflationary spike because of

1138
00:53:46,845 --> 00:53:49,335
conflict in the Middle East, is
gonna lead to central banks around

1139
00:53:49,335 --> 00:53:50,445
the world raising interest rates.

1140
00:53:50,475 --> 00:53:51,525
Are you nuts?

1141
00:53:52,365 --> 00:53:56,295
Jay Powell is not gonna like do
the bidding of the supreme leader.

1142
00:53:58,035 --> 00:54:00,585
He's not gonna like raise interest
rates to slow down the pace of

1143
00:54:00,585 --> 00:54:06,015
the economy as some robot, some
automaton, like, oh, energy prices

1144
00:54:06,015 --> 00:54:07,635
rising, must raise interest rates.

1145
00:54:07,635 --> 00:54:10,665
No, bro, like Iran is
attacking global shipping.

1146
00:54:10,755 --> 00:54:11,265
No, we're not.

1147
00:54:11,295 --> 00:54:12,885
Like they're not gonna
raise interest rates.

1148
00:54:12,885 --> 00:54:13,965
Not even considerate.

1149
00:54:14,385 --> 00:54:18,135
And that's why I would
definitely like fading oil.

1150
00:54:18,660 --> 00:54:20,670
On day one of this is dumb.

1151
00:54:20,940 --> 00:54:22,319
You should definitely not do that.

1152
00:54:23,100 --> 00:54:26,160
But fading the market move,
you absolutely should do this.

1153
00:54:26,190 --> 00:54:29,009
There's no way that this is gonna
be negative for, uh, stocks.

1154
00:54:29,009 --> 00:54:34,620
And by the way, it's right now, uh,
noon, New York time on Friday the

1155
00:54:34,620 --> 00:54:38,670
13th and s and p 500 is down point 44.

1156
00:54:40,485 --> 00:54:43,305
Jacob Shapiro: I mean, it's good for
defense stocks literally everywhere.

1157
00:54:43,395 --> 00:54:47,055
Um, I I I'm glad that you brought
up Soleimani 'cause that might be a

1158
00:54:47,055 --> 00:54:49,065
good way to, to land the plane here.

1159
00:54:49,485 --> 00:54:52,875
Um, because the Soleimani thing
gets to the, the point about

1160
00:54:52,875 --> 00:54:54,225
Iranian domestic politics.

1161
00:54:54,225 --> 00:54:57,375
We've talked a little bit about the
US and about Israel, but if you think

1162
00:54:57,375 --> 00:55:00,465
about Iranian domestic politics, I mean,
you're right, it's really complicated.

1163
00:55:00,465 --> 00:55:02,775
So we're not gonna be able to treat
it with the nuance that it deserves.

1164
00:55:02,775 --> 00:55:06,585
But think of it in terms of hard
liners like the IRGC and who believe

1165
00:55:06,585 --> 00:55:09,195
in the revolution and everything
else, versus the pragmatists

1166
00:55:09,405 --> 00:55:11,085
Rouhani, really the most recent one.

1167
00:55:11,385 --> 00:55:13,245
But you know, who wanna have
their cake and eat it too?

1168
00:55:13,245 --> 00:55:15,195
They want Iran to be part
of the global economy.

1169
00:55:15,195 --> 00:55:17,205
They wanna relax some of
the religious restrictions.

1170
00:55:17,205 --> 00:55:20,085
But okay, you can have the revolution
and these two factions sort of

1171
00:55:20,085 --> 00:55:21,255
squaring off against each other.

1172
00:55:21,495 --> 00:55:26,020
And I. One of the strategic reasons
to off soleimani, not just that you're

1173
00:55:26,020 --> 00:55:29,500
sending a message, you're also getting
rid of the leader who is on the

1174
00:55:29,500 --> 00:55:33,250
hardliner side, the one who was gonna
be opposing negotiations tooth and nail.

1175
00:55:33,250 --> 00:55:37,149
So if you can empower the pragmatist
to some extent and then, uh, to

1176
00:55:37,149 --> 00:55:39,520
your, I'm just like butchering your
point about there probably would've

1177
00:55:39,520 --> 00:55:42,640
been a deal because getting rid of
soleimani and throwing the IRGC into

1178
00:55:42,640 --> 00:55:46,629
chaos, maybe you can make an argument
that now you're giving some power.

1179
00:55:47,415 --> 00:55:49,634
Um, to the pragmatists, uh, going forward.

1180
00:55:49,634 --> 00:55:53,265
But just, just to say that like, there's
also an internal Iranian issue here,

1181
00:55:53,265 --> 00:55:56,115
and I think when we're thinking sort
of as you said profoundly about what

1182
00:55:56,115 --> 00:56:00,555
happens next, um, I, I think there's a
lot to be said about like Israel getting

1183
00:56:00,555 --> 00:56:05,174
short-term benefit, but at what long-term
cost the, the changing nature of war.

1184
00:56:05,205 --> 00:56:09,015
Like another example of intelligence
and drones and technology enabling

1185
00:56:09,015 --> 00:56:11,745
things that even 10 years ago
might not have been possible.

1186
00:56:12,105 --> 00:56:15,225
And then like, what does this mean
for the future of Iran long term?

1187
00:56:15,225 --> 00:56:18,015
Because eventually Iran is going
to come in from the cold, and when

1188
00:56:18,015 --> 00:56:21,645
it does, it will be one of the
greatest frontier opportunities ever.

1189
00:56:21,734 --> 00:56:24,585
I mean, like, it's, it's an
incredible country with incredible

1190
00:56:24,589 --> 00:56:27,134
human capital and resources and all
these other sorts of things, and

1191
00:56:27,134 --> 00:56:28,845
it will not be isolated forever.

1192
00:56:29,355 --> 00:56:32,295
Um, so I, I'm always sort of
waiting from that perspective, but

1193
00:56:32,299 --> 00:56:32,955
Marko Papic: one, one, I think

1194
00:56:32,955 --> 00:56:33,915
Jacob Shapiro: we'll be
waiting a lot longer.

1195
00:56:34,125 --> 00:56:36,165
Marko Papic: Well, since we're, yeah,
since we're doing kind of closing

1196
00:56:36,165 --> 00:56:37,365
statements, here's what I would say.

1197
00:56:37,424 --> 00:56:39,855
I would say that geopolitics
is a funny thing, you know?

1198
00:56:40,484 --> 00:56:44,145
Um, and we as humans, we desensitize.

1199
00:56:45,150 --> 00:56:49,620
We're, we're starting to desensitize
to what I've been saying is a

1200
00:56:49,620 --> 00:56:53,250
multipolar world since 2011.

1201
00:56:53,610 --> 00:56:54,570
That's been my call.

1202
00:56:55,410 --> 00:56:58,710
Think about it, 10 years ago, if you
told me just that Israel and Iran

1203
00:56:58,710 --> 00:57:02,010
would exchange Christmas of fire fire,
which is what happened last year.

1204
00:57:02,370 --> 00:57:02,460
Mm-hmm.

1205
00:57:02,760 --> 00:57:07,230
I would've said, oil prices are
150 right away, and here we are.

1206
00:57:07,260 --> 00:57:12,270
Not only has Israel been attacked by
a massive terrorist attack supported

1207
00:57:12,270 --> 00:57:16,650
by Iran in some capacity, even to
gently on October 7th, not only

1208
00:57:16,650 --> 00:57:20,490
have we lived through that, but
that happened almost two years ago.

1209
00:57:21,450 --> 00:57:26,040
Since then, Israel and Iran have exchanged
cruise missile fire, and now Israel has

1210
00:57:26,040 --> 00:57:29,460
attacked Iran and might attack it again.

1211
00:57:30,330 --> 00:57:36,180
And SAP 500 is down 0.4%,
which is like a random day.

1212
00:57:36,705 --> 00:57:39,615
Oil prices are up more than
they've ever been up intraday.

1213
00:57:39,615 --> 00:57:43,214
I think we hit significant increase
in oil prices, so no doubt there,

1214
00:57:43,545 --> 00:57:47,174
but you know, they're like 6%
and the world's not ending.

1215
00:57:47,174 --> 00:57:49,964
And people are like, yeah, I mean, it
is, I guess Iraq is gonna retaliate

1216
00:57:49,964 --> 00:57:51,495
against Israel, like, you know, whatever.

1217
00:57:51,915 --> 00:57:52,875
Like it is what it is.

1218
00:57:53,505 --> 00:57:54,555
This is the world we live in.

1219
00:57:54,615 --> 00:57:58,575
I mean, a couple of weeks ago,
India and Pakistan exchanged fire.

1220
00:57:58,575 --> 00:58:03,285
You and I barely got to squeeze them
in between the NBA finals and like the,

1221
00:58:03,285 --> 00:58:05,444
the fiscal bill in the United States.

1222
00:58:06,105 --> 00:58:09,255
This is very interesting to me and
I think it's something for everyone

1223
00:58:09,255 --> 00:58:10,845
on this call to who's listening.

1224
00:58:11,085 --> 00:58:13,634
If you're an investor, this
is really important for you.

1225
00:58:14,745 --> 00:58:17,685
But if you're just a regular person,
like listening to our podcast,

1226
00:58:17,685 --> 00:58:20,325
trying to figure out what's going on
with the world, this is the world.

1227
00:58:20,355 --> 00:58:23,955
It doesn't mean that the world
is descending into chaos and

1228
00:58:23,955 --> 00:58:26,355
there there's gonna be World War
III at the end of the rainbow.

1229
00:58:26,565 --> 00:58:29,085
This can just be our world
for the next 50 years.

1230
00:58:29,415 --> 00:58:32,535
This is what the 19th century
looked like, and it's considered

1231
00:58:32,775 --> 00:58:34,725
the longest period of peace.

1232
00:58:36,629 --> 00:58:42,930
The long peace, 1812 to 1914, a hundred
years of what we consider peace was

1233
00:58:42,930 --> 00:58:47,339
interspersed with conflicts that just
did not blow out of their region.

1234
00:58:47,459 --> 00:58:49,500
You know, and I think that's
what I would end it on.

1235
00:58:49,770 --> 00:58:50,520
This is interesting.

1236
00:58:50,520 --> 00:58:54,990
We had India, Pakistan, we have this, we
had Russia, Armenia, sja, Russia, Ukraine.

1237
00:58:54,990 --> 00:58:57,390
Like things are, things are cooking here.

1238
00:58:57,390 --> 00:59:01,649
There, there's a lot of pots on our
stove of geopolitics, but none of

1239
00:59:01,649 --> 00:59:03,330
them are really, uh, overflowing.

1240
00:59:03,569 --> 00:59:05,430
And that is what multipolarity is like.

1241
00:59:05,580 --> 00:59:09,959
It sucks because it means people will die
more so than when somebody's in charge.

1242
00:59:10,919 --> 00:59:14,040
On the other hand, it doesn't mean
that every conflict immediately has

1243
00:59:14,040 --> 00:59:16,080
to become a regional configuration.

1244
00:59:16,290 --> 00:59:19,560
And I don't think a lot of people
have really, uh, wrapped their

1245
00:59:19,560 --> 00:59:22,259
brains around that fact 'cause
they just don't know enough.

1246
00:59:22,259 --> 00:59:25,859
History and human history
is about multipolarity.

1247
00:59:25,859 --> 00:59:27,660
It's not about hegemony or by.

1248
00:59:28,485 --> 00:59:28,665
Jacob Shapiro: Yeah.

1249
00:59:28,665 --> 00:59:32,535
Or wrap their brains around the fact
at how geopolitically insignificant

1250
00:59:32,535 --> 00:59:33,855
the Middle East has become.

1251
00:59:33,884 --> 00:59:36,075
The Middle East was important
in the latter half of the

1252
00:59:36,075 --> 00:59:37,904
20th century for two reasons.

1253
00:59:37,904 --> 00:59:42,015
Number one, oil, number two, it was
a proxy battleground between the

1254
00:59:42,015 --> 00:59:43,424
United States and the Soviet Union.

1255
00:59:43,424 --> 00:59:44,085
So between Exactly.

1256
00:59:44,085 --> 00:59:47,985
Cold Wars over, there's no China doing
battle with the United States over.

1257
00:59:47,985 --> 00:59:48,134
No.

1258
00:59:48,134 --> 00:59:49,935
They had be the proxies via Iran.

1259
00:59:49,935 --> 00:59:50,745
Like it's all the same.

1260
00:59:50,745 --> 00:59:51,585
So that's gone.

1261
00:59:51,705 --> 00:59:55,365
No, and oil, nobody gives a frack
every, literally, ah, you like that.

1262
00:59:55,365 --> 00:59:56,835
Like the United States has oil Nice.

1263
00:59:56,835 --> 00:59:59,685
And the Chinese are building
reactors and Europe's doing hydrogen.

1264
00:59:59,685 --> 01:00:01,035
Like they're on borrowed time.

1265
01:00:01,035 --> 01:00:05,295
That's why that's the, is building, you
know, Neo in the middle of the desert.

1266
01:00:05,325 --> 01:00:06,525
'cause they're on borrowed time.

1267
01:00:06,529 --> 01:00:06,710
Just to,

1268
01:00:06,825 --> 01:00:12,194
Marko Papic: just to be clear, they
would, if Iran had the minerals, the balls

1269
01:00:12,285 --> 01:00:15,674
to attack I, uh, the, the facilities.

1270
01:00:15,674 --> 01:00:16,995
But Saudi Arabia has moved on.

1271
01:00:17,565 --> 01:00:20,654
You know, and the other issue, the other
issue that I don't think, we also have

1272
01:00:20,654 --> 01:00:26,595
wrapped our brains around US taxpayers
by supporting the Fifth Fleet in Bahrain.

1273
01:00:27,810 --> 01:00:30,150
Are defending Chinese strategic interests.

1274
01:00:30,240 --> 01:00:31,170
Let me say that again.

1275
01:00:31,230 --> 01:00:35,730
If you're an American listening to this,
you're paying taxes in parts of China

1276
01:00:35,850 --> 01:00:42,029
can be safe because it's not US oil
supply that the fifth fleet is guarding.

1277
01:00:43,319 --> 01:00:44,460
It's the rest of the world.

1278
01:00:44,460 --> 01:00:47,460
And that's maybe the one vestigial
part of Unipolarity mm-hmm.

1279
01:00:48,450 --> 01:00:50,220
Of hegemony that America still performs.

1280
01:00:50,220 --> 01:00:52,200
I know you gotta go so
we can wrap it on this.

1281
01:00:52,379 --> 01:00:56,009
All I would say is that Chinese and
American interests are not that misaligned

1282
01:00:56,009 --> 01:00:57,690
when it comes to the Middle East.

1283
01:00:58,529 --> 01:01:01,890
Uh, and Chinese statement, uh, after
this conflict was pretty muted.

1284
01:01:01,950 --> 01:01:03,420
They didn't really just support Iran.

1285
01:01:03,450 --> 01:01:05,310
They kind of said, Hey, both
sides need to calm down.

1286
01:01:05,730 --> 01:01:07,890
Um, and I think that
that's interesting as well.

1287
01:01:07,890 --> 01:01:10,109
I think that's a very nuanced
point you're saying, Jacob.

1288
01:01:10,140 --> 01:01:15,060
In other words, this Soviet Union in
the US had clearly delineated interests.

1289
01:01:15,330 --> 01:01:16,920
It's not that clear anymore.

1290
01:01:17,850 --> 01:01:21,570
Jacob Shapiro: No, and I guess like
it's shame on us for leaving it on this

1291
01:01:21,570 --> 01:01:25,620
and only bringing them up now because
for me the real question is, okay

1292
01:01:25,620 --> 01:01:27,870
President Erdogan, what's your move?

1293
01:01:28,710 --> 01:01:32,400
Because if this is your backyard, if
this is the neo Ottoman Empire, if

1294
01:01:32,400 --> 01:01:36,600
all these powers are like whatever,
like this is Turkey's backyard and now

1295
01:01:36,600 --> 01:01:39,480
you've got Israel and Iran like with
blows, and maybe that's good for you.

1296
01:01:39,480 --> 01:01:41,460
Maybe you want to break out
the popcorn and deal with

1297
01:01:41,460 --> 01:01:43,110
whoever is left over afterwards.

1298
01:01:43,110 --> 01:01:46,980
But like said it, Turkey is the quiet one
that is like, we should all be watching

1299
01:01:46,980 --> 01:01:49,680
how they react because that's probably
gonna define this more than anything

1300
01:01:49,680 --> 01:01:49,890
Marko Papic: else.

1301
01:01:49,980 --> 01:01:52,560
You took your very high in
our draft, so you took Turkey.

1302
01:01:52,560 --> 01:01:54,030
Sorry, Turkey high in the draft.

1303
01:01:54,030 --> 01:01:54,630
So let's see it.

1304
01:01:54,630 --> 01:01:55,230
I did let, let's see.

1305
01:01:55,230 --> 01:01:55,945
That potential.

1306
01:01:55,945 --> 01:01:56,385
Let's it,

1307
01:01:57,570 --> 01:01:57,930
Jacob Shapiro: I'm waiting.

1308
01:01:57,930 --> 01:01:58,140
Alright.

1309
01:02:00,295 --> 01:02:00,785
Alright.

1310
01:02:00,900 --> 01:02:01,140
Thank you.

1311
01:02:01,140 --> 01:02:01,380
Alright.

1312
01:02:01,830 --> 01:02:02,190
Cheers.