[00:00:00] Karin Bursa: Freight is a leading indicator and one of the best indicators of actual economic movement. So whether it's raw materials that are heading to factories or finished goods that's going to distribution centers or retail shelves when freight moves. The economy is in motion.

[00:00:19] Voiceover: Welcome to Supply Chain Now, the number one voice of supply chain.

[00:00:23] Voiceover: Join us as we share critical news, key insights, and real supply chain leadership from across the globe. One conversation at a time.

[00:00:32] Scott W. Luton: Hey, good morning, good afternoon, good evening, wherever you may be. Scott Luton and Karin Bursa here with you on Supply Chain Now. Karin, how you doing?

[00:00:40] Karin Bursa: I'm doing great.

[00:00:41] Karin Bursa: Looking forward to the conversation today.

[00:00:43] Scott W. Luton: Oh, I am too. This is one of our favorites folks. Today we continue a long running quarterly series, a popular informative series that we get a lot of feedback around. We're gonna be sharing key insights from the latest quarterly edition of one of the leading transportation industry resources.

[00:00:57] Scott W. Luton: Of course, you know, that's U.S. Bank Freight Payment Index for Q2 2025. Now Karin, this is one of my favorite ongoing shows because it is just really informative and it provides really an. In the know market analysis that you just can't find a lot of places, right? Not only will we dive into what the data's telling us, but we'll marry that with boots on the ground in market practitioner perspective.

[00:01:19] Scott W. Luton: We're gonna get a good sense of what transpired in the second quarter, 2025. We're gonna be sharing a few nuggets that will help you. We'll help prep you for where we are now and where we're heading. So a great show coming up. Karin, it's gonna give us an opportunity to really lean into that facts, not feelings mantra.

[00:01:35] Scott W. Luton: Huh?

[00:01:36] Karin Bursa: Absolutely. You know that I'm a big believer in kind of draining that emotion and really digging into the facts and the trends. So absolutely facts. Not feelings, not headlines, which we're getting a lot of these days.

[00:01:49] Scott W. Luton: That's right. They're coming at us left and right. Uh, Karin, you know, I'm a big fan of context.

[00:01:54] Scott W. Luton: Before we bring on our guests, I wanna share this. So folks, if you don't know the U.S. Bank Freight Payment Index, which is released every quarter. Again, it's all about data driven and market driven insights, but there's one really important element to all the research. And Karin, you know, we love our data.

[00:02:09] Scott W. Luton: All those treasure troves of data that's processed through U.S. Bank, in fact. In case, did you know this? Here's a little fact. What U.S. Bank processed four to $3 billion worth of transactions in 2024 alone. So all of those data-driven insights and the except, uh, exceptional commentary, well, that's one of the biggest reasons why U.S. Bank is such a great resource for this information that business leaders leverage out in the market.

[00:02:33] Scott W. Luton: So, Karin, with no further ado, are you ready for me to introduce our ESTEEM panel?

[00:02:40] Karin Bursa: Yeah, let's do it.

[00:02:41] Scott W. Luton: Let's jump right on in, folks on welcome in. Our feature guest here today backed by Proper Demand is Bobby Holland, director Freight ba uh, freight Business Analytics with U.S. Bank and Man, big guest alert, Bob Costello, chief Economist and Senior Vice President of International Trade and Security Policy for the American Trucking Associations.

[00:03:02] Scott W. Luton: Hey, hey, Bobby. Great to have you back. How you doing? I'm doing well. How are you? Wonderful, wonderful. And it's always a big show when Bobby Holland joins, but it's even bigger today, Karin, because Bobby's bringing a titan of industry. Bob, welcome. Welcome. We've enjoyed your thought leadership and industry analysis for years.

[00:03:18] Scott W. Luton: Great to have you here today.

[00:03:20] Bob Costello: Well, you're being very kind, but it's,

[00:03:22] Scott W. Luton: uh, it's a, a pleasure to be here. I'm excited about this. Awesome. Well, great to have you. We enjoyed the pre-show conversations, Karin and I have. And folks, now's a great time to download this free report and you can follow along. As we dive in.

[00:03:33] Scott W. Luton: You can spill coffee on it, dog gear it, mark it up, you name it. So Bob. We like to start with a fun warmup question here before we dive into all sorts of supply chain data, insights, and all about freight. We hear you're a big time tennis player. Now I'm a, um, I'm kind of a fan of the game. I'm not a tennis player, not an athlete really.

[00:03:52] Scott W. Luton: But I want to ask you one of your favorite all time tennis players, my friend.

[00:03:57] Bob Costello: Oh man, that's, that's, uh, I, you know, listen, you're being very kind. I've been playing tennis my whole life. I love it. Uh, my, my 16-year-old daughter's into it. She trains. She's in training all this week, six, seven hours a day. We both, we all love it.

[00:04:10] Bob Costello: In my family, you know, I, I kind of go with Roger Federer. I just think he's a great dude. He was so good. I mean, the big three were amazing. Now we got the big two, but I'm gonna go with, uh, Roger Federer is my all time favorite.

[00:04:24] Scott W. Luton: I love that. Uh, he's one of the best of all time. You could probably make an arable case.

[00:04:28] Scott W. Luton: He might be one the best of all time. I don't know. I'll leave that to the tennis experts, Bobby Holland. Now you've got a little bit of a, a rebel in your blood, I think. Who, who'd you, uh, kind of grow up watching?

[00:04:39] Bobby Holland: I grew up watching, I, I admired Andre Agassi. Uh, I thought he was, you know, the, one of the first tennis players to show a bit of style wasn't, you know, the traditional Yes.

[00:04:49] Bobby Holland: Style. And plus he was a good player. I mean, he could back up his, uh, double made care with, uh, some action. So. That was what I admired when I was younger. Completely agree.

[00:04:58] Scott W. Luton: And I'm not sure after he shaved those long locks, I think he just got better. Kind of the opposite of, uh, some of the biblical stories out there.

[00:05:06] Scott W. Luton: Yes, Bob, I, BBC you should say, I like it when you, uh, and the, of course, the, the Rebel camera commercials were, uh, uh, stuck between my ears from back in the day. Karin, same question. Uh, big tennis fan. Um, what's your favorite player?

[00:05:22] Karin Bursa: Well, um, from the pro Serena Williams. Um, but my, my current favorite is my niece who.

[00:05:29] Karin Bursa: Is a young, up and coming, um, high school player. Okay. Uh, that, uh, really won to watch for the future.

[00:05:36] Scott W. Luton: Outstanding. Karin, I love how you kind of brought it home there. We're gonna, we're gonna have to have her on a future show. Uh, I would just add to, uh, as Karin said, Serena Williams. Oh my gosh, I've never watched more tennis than that.

[00:05:48] Scott W. Luton: Legendary her, one of her final runs in New York at the US Open back, I think in, uh, 2022. And then, uh, when I was younger, Pete Samra and just quiet about the business. Just keep winning. As Al Davis said, just win baby right time to get to work. Uh, and Bobby, what we wanna start with before we get into the truckload upon truckload of insights and takeaways, uh, if you had to put today's conversation.

[00:06:13] Scott W. Luton: Into a one sentence theme, what would that be, Bobby?

[00:06:18] Bobby Holland: Well, I would say that nationally we're seeing signs of a rebound in both shipments and spend. Now the question is, will it last?

[00:06:26] Scott W. Luton: Ooh, that is a billion dollar question. Will it last? Indeed. Um, okay. Uh, so a little more context. I think it's really important for folks to kind of view a lot of the insights and expertise that you're gonna hear here through the proper lens.

[00:06:39] Scott W. Luton: And, uh, Bob. I want to, for the three people out there that may not have heard of you or the ATA, tell us a little more about, uh, yourself. Uh, as I would like to say, you said we're being generous, but I think it's very genuine. Your thought leadership and industry voice has been around, has informed a lot of business leaders.

[00:06:55] Scott W. Luton: But for the three people that hadn't heard of that, tell us about yourself and ATA.

[00:06:59] Bob Costello: Yeah, so I've been working at the, uh, American Trucking Associations here in Washington, DC uh, for over 28 years. I can't believe, I would've never guessed it, but I love this industry. It's, it's so, it's so amazing. And ATA, uh, as we call it, is the largest, uh, trade association representing motor carriers, but also manufacturers in the industry.

[00:07:20] Bob Costello: And I also do international trade policy. Which is important right now, as everybody knows, as well as security policy we won't talk about today, but cargo theft is on the rise and is a problem. So those are some issues I, I deal

[00:07:33] Scott W. Luton: with. Oh, Bob. Good. We could spend five hours talking about just the topics you mentioned, your response, but great to have you here and your expertise, uh, along with Bob and Karin and Karin, that brings me around to you.

[00:07:44] Scott W. Luton: How do you see business leaders such as yourself, industry leaders, using great resources like the U.S. Bank Freight Payment Index?

[00:07:52] Karin Bursa: Yeah. Well, I think the analysis is really important. Freight is a leading indicator and one of the best indicators of actual economic movement. So whether it's raw materials that are heading to factories or finished goods that's going to distribution centers or retail shelves when freight moves.

[00:08:11] Karin Bursa: The economy is in motion.

[00:08:12] Scott W. Luton: Oh, Karin, you just spiked the football. That Auburn Tiger's football on. A really important point because as we track and unpack what's going on in the freight market, it is, uh, you know, domestic or international man, it can really help us read the tea leaves. Excellent comment there.

[00:08:30] Scott W. Luton: Cor. Okay, so Bobby, I wanna do this next. I know you answered this question every quarter for us, you know, going on probably five years now. But this is really important because for our new viewers or listeners, they may be new to the freight payment index. So if you would, Bobby, tell us how it all works.

[00:08:48] Bobby Holland: Well, our free payment index, it's U.S. Banks view of the freight market informed by our $43 billion currently in payment transaction data. Uh, it's a chain based index. Uh, we designed it to measure, uh, the delta and velocity of changes in the freight market. Um, again, it's a chain based index quarter over quarter.

[00:09:11] Bobby Holland: Uh, we do year over year comparisons as well. It's another set of data points we provide to the marketplace where, you know, good decision.

[00:09:18] Scott W. Luton: Outstanding. I love the region by region breakdowns. It's one of my favorite parts. And, and in a new addition, I think within the last, uh, year or so, we're adding freight rate information from our friends at dt.

[00:09:30] Scott W. Luton: So y'all jammed up even more value in this quarterly free resource to folks. You can check out the link to download your copy or go to freight.usbank.com. So let's do this. We're about to dive into the eight key takeaways from the Q2 2025 freight payment index, and we're gonna start at the national level.

[00:09:52] Scott W. Luton: Bobby, we've got three key takeaways from just the overall national aspect of this report. Tell us more.

[00:10:00] Bobby Holland: Well, number one, for the first time, since the second quarter of 2022, the freight payment index. Uh, shipment and spend index has revealed quarterly shipment and spend volume increases. Uh, secondly, from a year over year perspective, uh, the U.S. Bank, freight payment, national shipment and spend index indexes were down overall, however, the declines were the smallest since Q1 2023.

[00:10:23] Bobby Holland: And finally, despite plenty of regional positivity, because we saw all five regions with quarter over quarter shipment increases for the first time in four years. Again, it may be too soon to say, have we turned that corner? Uh, again, it looks like we're seeing signs, but as we said, will it last?

[00:10:39] Scott W. Luton: Will it last?

[00:10:40] Scott W. Luton: That's gonna be the big theme here today. Will it last? I know. Um, so Bob, at that national level, uh, your thoughts, what would you add to what Bobby has shared?

[00:10:50] Bob Costello: Yeah. So I mean, it wasn't, it was encouraging. I think what people have to remember is, and Karin, you kind of brought this up earlier, this is a great reflection that the transportation industry is a great reflection of the goods economy, right?

[00:11:03] Bob Costello: Hmm. So I tell people all the time. Look at GDP numbers, but not the overall number. You gotta really focus in because we're not putting services in trailers, we're putting goods in trailers. So what happened in the second quarter that helped one was manufacturing activity. After a couple of years of down manufacturing, uh, activity, we actually saw some nice increases in output from the previous quarter.

[00:11:25] Bob Costello: As well as year over year. So that definitely helped freight volumes and more specifically in that durable goods. Uh, so these are products with a usable life of at least three years. That was also very helpful. I think sometimes we forget in the US we are the second largest manufacturing in the economy in the world by far.

[00:11:46] Bob Costello: Now we're by far behind China, uh, but we are a huge. Player in manufacturing globally, and therefore that's so important to trucking. Right? So that's very important. The other thing we saw is for the first time in a long time, we actually saw households start to spend more on goods in the second quarter than they were on experiences.

[00:12:09] Bob Costello: Mm-hmm. So we've seen. Incredible increase in experiences after the first couple of years of the pandemic. You remember all this stuff about revenge travel and all that sort of stuff. Well, then they started to move over to goods again, and that, that has definitely been helpful. Um, housing not so much, but those two I think really helped during the second quarter.

[00:12:31] Scott W. Luton: Bob, what outstanding commentary and I got we're an example of that. We went out and got a new TV for the first time in 27 years. So we'll see. Uh, Karin add, add your between what Bobby and Bob has shared, uh, what would you add at a national level?

[00:12:47] Karin Bursa: Well, I think, uh, the point that Bobby made just very quickly is super important, and that is that the national shipment and spend index were both in positive territory or both moving Yep.

[00:13:00] Karin Bursa: In a favorable direction. So that means that, um, some of the downward pricing pressure may be getting a little relief. But that we are seeing both, you know, the actual economic impact as well as the volume of good. So two good, two good trends to continue watching.

[00:13:18] Scott W. Luton: Great call out there, Karin. Bob, I wanted to get you to comment on this just really quick before we go region by region.

[00:13:23] Scott W. Luton: I was talking earlier, that's one of my favorite parts. 'cause it allows us to call, you know, speak at the high level and then we drill in deeper to some of the different dynamics. I think the region by region is one of your favorite components of this report as well. Is that right? Absolutely. Yeah. Okay.

[00:13:37] Scott W. Luton: Bobby, tell us, uh, give us your key takeaway from the West region.

[00:13:42] Bobby Holland: Well, despite fluctuations in the port, uh, port activity, the West region posted modest increases in quarterly, yearly shipments for the second consecutive quarter. In particular, it was up 1.3% in shipments and it was down only 0.7%, uh, quarterly, but it was up 2.3% year over year in the west.

[00:14:04] Bobby Holland: Okay. So again, just some good signs. By comparison nationally, we were up 2.4% for the quarter and 1.2% in spend for the quarter, so Okay. Kinda gives you an idea of how the West relates to the national.

[00:14:18] Scott W. Luton: I love starting out west. We all know idle waves of products that come through that really important gateway into really all points North America.

[00:14:26] Scott W. Luton: Bob, your comments on what we're seeing out West?

[00:14:30] Bob Costello: Yeah. A couple things come to mind here, right? One is I think, you know, if you look at underlying data, in the first quarter we saw this, a tidal wave of imports coming in to the west and I think, you know, we couldn't use all those 'cause they were trying to beat the, beat the tariffs.

[00:14:45] Bob Costello: Right? Right. So a lot of that was put into storage that I think during the second quarter got distributed. So even though we saw these ups and downs in, in, in, uh, import volumes on the west coast, uh, it was a lot of that from the first quarter was distributed in the second quarter. So I think, you know, that's very helpful.

[00:15:04] Bob Costello: And the other thing to remember is, you know, on these imports, you know, we all think finished goods. It's things that we buy at home. Almost half of all imports into the US are inputs to the US manufacturing process. Yep. So that is, is very important on the west. So that I think is something that maybe some people would've, would've missed and would've been a little surprised and the strength that we saw on the West Coast.

[00:15:28] Scott W. Luton: Yep. Love that Bob. Uh, and man, don't sleep on all those inputs. Uh, alright. Karin bursa out west your comments.

[00:15:37] Karin Bursa: Yeah, I think Bob made a really good point, and that is, as all of the news about tariffs and pending tariffs hit, hit the marketplace, many, many companies did what we would refer to in consumer goods as forward buying, right?

[00:15:51] Karin Bursa: They brought that inventory, uh, in ahead of those potential price increases. And so the fact that we have then taken a couple of quarters to burn through that inventory means now maybe we'll see a more normalized pattern going forward.

[00:16:06] Scott W. Luton: Isn't the word normal, just music to your ears and, and Karin we talk a lot about, it's never

[00:16:11] Karin Bursa: normal.

[00:16:12] Karin Bursa: That's right.

[00:16:13] Scott W. Luton: I was about You beat me to it. You beat me to it. Uh, alright, I wanna add on to a quick nugget on what we saw out west that, uh, really our whole panel spoke to, uh, port activity. So as reported here by transport talks, that tariff whipsaw effect about that for a phrase had west coast port activity really all over the board as, uh.

[00:16:32] Scott W. Luton: Bob spoke to, uh, including the port of la, which experienced its busiest June on record. However, overall cargo volumes through for the months of May and June, 2025 at this critical USC port were about the same as 2024. And that's comes from Gene Soroka, executive Director of the Port of la. So we'll see what all of that might mean in third, uh, quarter and beyond.

[00:16:55] Scott W. Luton: And Bob, uh, really quick. Report published about, you know, y'all concluded about a month or so ago. Any additional comments in what you've seen since the report published?

[00:17:07] Bob Costello: Yeah, we saw a couple things. Well, first of all, on the, on the imports, don't forget too, there's a lot of trucking activity down in southern California coming in from Mexico, right?

[00:17:17] Bob Costello: Mm-hmm. And so that is also, uh, important part on the, uh, the trade. You know, one of the things that, um, was also sort of a. Uh, herding volumes a little bit on the west was, we saw housing starts out there. Yeah. Uh, we can talk about housing starts generally later in different regions, but housing starts in the, in the west wasn't, wasn't very good.

[00:17:38] Bob Costello: So, um, and in fact they were down from the previous quarter as well as the year earlier. There's a lot of pent up demand all over the place for housing, but it's, again, interest rates aren't falling. And of course we know that's causing some, a lot of people talking about that and, and the chairman of the Fed.

[00:17:53] Bob Costello: So a lot of things going on in that area as well.

[00:17:55] Scott W. Luton: That's right. And of course the, and my, I got a sneaking suspicion, we'll talk more about housing, uh, starts in housing market in just a second. 'cause it's a big, big. And what drives freight activity? Uh, good stuff there. All right, so let's move from the west to the southwest folks, the southwest region, as we're walking through five regions that all make up the U.S. Bank freight payment index.

[00:18:17] Scott W. Luton: Bobby, what's your key takeaway from the Southwest region?

[00:18:22] Bobby Holland: Okay, so for the Southwest, uh, with cross-border trade being down, uh, it was decent manufacturing that helped the Southwest rebound from a poor first quarter. Uh, with the largest quarterly gain in shipments of 6.7% amongst the five regions.

[00:18:40] Scott W. Luton: Okay. So it's leading the pack of sorts.

[00:18:43] Scott W. Luton: Uh, in some ways that's a good place to be most of the time. Bob, your thoughts? What we saw out in the Southwest?

[00:18:49] Bob Costello: Yeah, so one of the things when I, when I think about the Southwest, my mind immediately first goes to the Port of Laredo, right? Okay. Laredo tax list. It is. Outside of a couple of the West coast ports that you've already brought up, it is the largest port.

[00:19:04] Bob Costello: It's the largest land port of entry in the us. I mean, over 10,000 trucks a day on average, coming in to Laredo Plus, not even to mention, you know, the rest of Texas and in El Paso and so forth. So that my mind goes to the, the supply chain, the integrated supply chain. You know, between the US and Mexico as well as Canada.

[00:19:24] Bob Costello: Mm-hmm. Due to U-S-M-C-A, you know, we've seen some of the, the whipsaw that was brought up earlier on the west coast mm-hmm. The same thing is happening in the Southwest in terms of those port volumes. You know, normally we, in the last five years, if you look at. Imports, inbound trucks from Mexico, including Laredo, it's been really strong and so far this year, including the second quarter, it is not, so it's got this whipsaw effect, but then the actual levels are down as well.

[00:19:53] Bob Costello: A large part of that is around tariffs and, and certainly the whipsaw effects as well. So that's where my mind goes. First and foremost, whenever I see those southwest numbers.

[00:20:04] Scott W. Luton: Bob, I was gonna, I thought you were gonna go somewhere with, with a food journey. 'cause we love talking food and Southwest has some delicious food down there, but my supply chain nerd kicks in and the Port of Laredo.

[00:20:13] Scott W. Luton: What a critical, critical juncture to your point. And I've seen some really cool plans for, um, bringing in some autonomous lanes. We'll see if that comes to fruition. But Karin the southwest between what Bobby and Bob has already shared. Your thoughts.

[00:20:26] Karin Bursa: Yeah, I, I think it's interesting to see, I think that Bobby said a 6.7% gain in manufacturing, um, in the region.

[00:20:36] Karin Bursa: And that is interesting because I do think as tariffs gain traction and get put into effect, we're gonna continue to see some increased volatility as really our networks rebalance on where. That's coming in, whether it's raw material or finished product and movement between facilities throughout, uh, the United States as well.

[00:20:59] Scott W. Luton: Yep. Good call out and, hey, um, I'm always careful what I wish for, but I would just like to see the specificity, even if it's painful. I just would love to see exactly what we're dealing with because we'll gain some certainty and of course we'll be able to make some, some decisions for sure. Okay. Really quick, we, we talked a lot about manufacturing.

[00:21:17] Scott W. Luton: There. And I wanna pull up one little factoid from our friends at the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. The Southwest region Manufacturing is big business, especially in Texas. I think Texas is second only to California in terms of manufacturing activity. Bobby Seed may check me if I've got that fact right.

[00:21:31] Scott W. Luton: So the Fed down there reports a really rosy manufacturing picked for the lone Star state for July. Gains were reported in overall production, new orders, and really overall business out leaks, uh, outlooks from leaders in the Texas manufacturing industry. However. It hasn't been the same rosy picture.

[00:21:49] Scott W. Luton: According to some data, the July, 2025 Purchasing Managers index released by the Institute for Supply Management. Well, their data showed continued manufacturing contraction across the us Yeah, that and July activity was slightly less than June activity. So, uh, manufacturing's critical, as we all know, not only a big freight driver, but a massive economic driver.

[00:22:09] Scott W. Luton: I think one last thing we're, we're looking for there. Is I-S-M-C-E-O, Thomas Dairy mentioned how companies are really figuring out how much of the higher cost from tariffs to pass on to their customers. A lot more conversations around that. So we so shall see how it all plays out. Uh, alright, so from the southwest to the Midwest, Bobby Holland, what is your key takeaway here?

[00:22:36] Bobby Holland: Well, so we see in the Midwest that for the first time in three years, they had, uh, quarterly gains in shipments in spend. We see that it was up 2.6% in shipments and up 2.2% in spend. And this region's yearly declines were its smallest in the last nine quarters. The yearly decline was 9.2% year over year, and that was the smallest decline.

[00:22:58] Bobby Holland: So again, it. Planes not quite in a dive mode.

[00:23:01] Scott W. Luton: Yep. Plane's not quite in a dive mode. I'll take it. Uh, Bobby Holland, I will take it. I'm in search of all the good news we can get. Uh, alright. So Bob Costello, what about the Midwest? I'm looking forward to your perspective here. Your thoughts.

[00:23:14] Bob Costello: Yeah, so up, volatile, up and down.

[00:23:17] Bob Costello: But I think we saw some improvement in manufacturing, uh, activity. And of course that's, that's a big one. Think of Michigan, Ohio, you're thinking. Uh, so I think that that was one of the benefits that we saw certainly on a quarterly basis, even though. Uh, the Midwest has seen some sharp declines on a year over year basis, and, and that's also just tougher comps as it was coming down over the last year.

[00:23:41] Bob Costello: So, so I think it was very positive there. We also saw housing starts in the Midwest improve a bit. So that is, um, something to, to take, um, away, you know, there is, by the way, if you start peeling back that onion a little bit. Yeah. Single family housing starts. Haven't been, uh, great. It's really on the multifamily starts that we've seen some improvement.

[00:24:04] Bob Costello: Mm-hmm. So, so those two things really came out to me, uh, at looking at some of the numbers in the Midwest.

[00:24:10] Scott W. Luton: Can I get a quick before I go to Karin here? Um, and look, we're always apolitical, right? Uh, but the jobs report, there's, that's been the headlines everywhere. Um, how do you see what's going on with the job market factoring in kind of in general here, Bob?

[00:24:24] Bob Costello: Yeah, so obviously the big headline thing was the revisions to the previous months. They were much, much lower, and to be honest with you, I'm not surprised that that has happened. We are expecting the economy to slow down. I think in general, here's the good news, I don't expect a recession. My baseline forecast for the second half of the year is not a recession, but it is below.

[00:24:50] Bob Costello: Normal growth, and that would be for GDP overall about 2%. So I think that's where we're headed. We're gonna see that show up and start in the labor numbers. We're also gonna see it in, in some of the freight numbers. Again, I think we were starting to see this shift from away from experiences to goods and that was could help freight and, and so forth.

[00:25:10] Bob Costello: But what do you put Terrance on? You put it on goods, you don't put it on services. That's right. And so that's again, getting to what I think Karin said earlier about how much of this gets passed along is key. Um, and, and we will see. But, but those are all things I'm thinking about. And, and as a result. The, the, the out.

[00:25:29] Bob Costello: Well, we're gonna talk about it, the outlook, but it's a little, it's a little cloudy. Yes.

[00:25:33] Scott W. Luton: Uh, I think a lot of folks will agree with you, but Karin the good news there. I wanna sh I wanna put a bulletin board or a, uh, not, uh, um, a roadside, big old billboard up, not bulletin board. 'cause to hear from Bob, he's not good news.

[00:25:47] Scott W. Luton: He's not. Projecting a recession course.

[00:25:49] Karin Bursa: I know I wrote it down. I said, not a recession. I got little stars next to it right here. That was my good takeaway for that region.

[00:25:56] Scott W. Luton: So what else? Uh, uh, Karin in the Midwest, your thoughts.

[00:25:59] Karin Bursa: The other thing we have to keep in mind is as you rebalance supply chains and we, you know, move manufacturing around, are we onshore or reshore some of that production capacity that takes time.

[00:26:11] Karin Bursa: There's lead time associated with it. If you're provisioning new facilities or new lines. In a production facility, there's lead time associated with it. We can't just, you know, crank up the volume, uh, right away. So I think we'll see those numbers continue to increase. As those facilities and those investments really hit the market.

[00:26:34] Scott W. Luton: Yep. Well said Karin. And I'll just point out folks, we've got a data scientist. We've got a, a real chief e economist, uh, economist, uh, economist. Oh, that in school too. And Karin Bursa, a long time executive practitioner and supply chain. We're hearing from pros, uh, versus some of what we get, uh, on tv. So we gotta listen to trusted resources for information.

[00:26:57] Scott W. Luton: I wanna add one more thing here. We touched on a couple times consumer spending, but check this out. Overall, US consumer spending in Q2 2025 was up 1.4%, but that's well below the 2.8% growth for the same period in 2024. And again, a blend of good news and bad news. That was the fifth slowest rate. In a quarter since Q3 2021.

[00:27:19] Scott W. Luton: Uh, Bob, really quick. You know these numbers a lot better than I do. Any other comments around? I love your call out of the shift, uh, that we're seeing and, and spending on goods. That's, that's a great, great move. Anything else in terms related to, uh, consumer spending that you might want to add?

[00:27:33] Bob Costello: Yeah, so I think you saw it in those numbers.

[00:27:35] Bob Costello: And this is what I was talking about, you know, and that was the goods side was finally doing better than services in terms of, of growth rate. And the thing to remember about goods is, um, you have non-durable goods. So these are things that we buy in our everyday life that we need to use, uh, and they don't last very long.

[00:27:53] Bob Costello: Right? But durable goods are big ticket items and some of those, uh, they last over three years and some of those. Durable goods are, are very interest rate sensitive.

[00:28:04] Scott W. Luton: Hmm.

[00:28:05] Bob Costello: So the fact that we're seeing goods spending starting to rise, even though interest rates are on pause for the moment, I think is a, an example of households have this pent up demand.

[00:28:17] Bob Costello: So we went from tons of good spending during the early parts of the pandemic to very little. During the, the, the latter years and everybody was doing experiences and now we're getting back to normal. Right? Yes. And I think that is gonna, that's, that can be a helpful, even though interest rates haven't started to really fall that much.

[00:28:37] Scott W. Luton: Mm-hmm. Good stuff. Karin, uh. Lots of shifts. Lots of shifts, but I really welcome the shift that, uh, Bob's calling out where we're spending more money on goods. And that's a great thing for manufacturing, for warehousing, for fulfill, for so many aspects of global supply chain. Your quick thoughts there, Karin?

[00:28:54] Karin Bursa: Yeah, I agree. I agree and I think that when the Federal Reserve does take action, I don't know when that's gonna be, but invariably sometime in the next. Two, three quarters, we're gonna see some movement. There is pent up demand on large, durable investments. So whether that's in housing or other areas of our lives, I think you'll see the consumer.

[00:29:18] Karin Bursa: Open their wallet and uh, I think you'll see businesses responding to that with bigger investments as well.

[00:29:24] Scott W. Luton: I like that. Grounded, constructive optimism you have, you and Bob and Bobby are sharing here. Uh, alright, so Bobby, let's go up to the Northeast region. What's your key takeaway that we should really focus in on here?

[00:29:38] Bobby Holland: Well, in the Northeast they had double digit increase in housing starts, and because of that, or in part because of that, the northeast posted its second consecutive quarter with increases in both the Q quarter over quarter and year over year. Uh, shipment and shipment and spend volumes. When you look at that, it was up 3.3% for shipments.

[00:29:58] Bobby Holland: Okay. And then up 2.7% year over year. And then in spend, it was up 1.3% for the quarter and up 3.7% year over year. So again, uh, Northeast is on the rise,

[00:30:10] Scott W. Luton: Northeast is on the rise. All right, Bob, there's a lot going on up in the northeast. Your thoughts? Yeah.

[00:30:15] Bob Costello: Yeah. Yeah. Well, Bobby, uh, it was absolutely right when we look at housing starts in the northeast quarter to quarter up over 11%.

[00:30:23] Bob Costello: And this is after we had, we didn't have a full picture when I wrote the report. So now we do so up over 11%, quarter to quarter, uh, in housing starts year over year up. 31%. Wow. Right. So, wow. So very strong. Then also, remember in the Northeast, you've got a large population. So this idea that we've been talking about goods versus experiences absolutely came into play.

[00:30:46] Bob Costello: And then the last thing I would say, and this goes more to the spend, uh, part by shippers. Is, you know, capacity. Listen, I, I, I'm a firm believer that capacity has been leaving the industry broadly, right? A number of carriers down, number of drivers down, employee, drivers down, not amount of equipment down.

[00:31:06] Bob Costello: You know, a lot of people would, in any fleets on here would say, yeah, I haven't been feeling it much. Well, that's because demand hasn't really risen. Up until the second quarter here, we didn't, we didn't see that happening, and that's why they haven't felt it. But one area where drivers are not thrilled to go is the northeast, right?

[00:31:24] Bob Costello: And so what happens is you kind of see it there first because all of a sudden the ship, the drivers push back, Hey, I don't want to go into the north. I don't want to go into these very congested areas and then have to sit there in traffic. So the fact that that sort of showed up on the spend as well. I think is showing you that underneath all of this broadly, we have seen reductions in capacity.

[00:31:48] Bob Costello: It just hasn't really shown up that much yet.

[00:31:51] Scott W. Luton: Bob, one quick follow up. Any tariffs and their impact on construction products, lumber, you name it, how does that factor in, do you think, to the overall housing industry and the Starks uh, data?

[00:32:04] Bob Costello: Yeah, well, I'll tell you how it shows up. It shows up in pricing, right?

[00:32:08] Bob Costello: So yeah, it's going to hurt. Demand a bit. Again, there's a lot of, in the northeast there was a lot of weakness for a while, and, and that is, is sort of snapped back a bit. But what happens is if you look at the overall numbers. You will see that the, the, even though volumes generally, I was talking about housing starts overall, especially single family housing starts in the second quarter.

[00:32:31] Bob Costello: Overall, this is for the entire country down nine point a half percent, quarter to quarter, down 9% year over year. Multifamily starts though we we're up quite a bit, but where it shows up is pricing of those homes hasn't really come down. Mm-hmm. Because even though that weakness, because of some of the tariffs on, on the inputs.

[00:32:51] Bob Costello: When we're building homes.

[00:32:53] Scott W. Luton: Yeah. Bob, I appreciate that. Uh, alright. Karin, the Northeast, lots of so many things we could speak to here, but your thoughts.

[00:33:00] Karin Bursa: Yeah. Yeah. I think that between Bobby and Bob, they really hit on a couple of the core themes there. I think that these double digit increases are pretty impressive.

[00:33:09] Karin Bursa: Bob, I completely missed that. It was over 30% year to date, or year over year, excuse me. Mm-hmm. On that. That is, that's a big number. That's a big increase. And. You know, yes, it may be multifamily right now. Uh, again, I think if we see movement, downward movement on interest rates, that there is significant pent up demand that buyers don't feel like they can afford right now.

[00:33:34] Karin Bursa: And sellers don't wanna get rid of their current mortgage, which may be at a much more favorable rate in order to buy something that's gonna be at a higher rate in today's dollars. So I think if we see even the slightest. Movement on those interest rates. We're gonna see housing activity increase nationally.

[00:33:55] Scott W. Luton: Yeah. I, I'm so glad you're hammering home an interest rate thing. We've all been tracking it, right? It's made for some very interesting TV at times, I'll say. But Bobby can't predict things. The financial institutions don't wanna do that. Of course, understandably. But Bob, do you want to give a bold prediction of when we might see that interest rate cut that we're all looking for?

[00:34:16] Bob Costello: So this is the pickle that the, the Fed is in, right? Mm-hmm. They have a dual mandate. Those two mandates are one, maximize employment. All right. Then keep inflation in check. So if you look at those two things right now, they're not going in the same direction in a way, right? So you have, we saw from the latest job numbers, um, that, uh, the, the job situation, the labor market is absolutely slowing down.

[00:34:47] Bob Costello: Okay? So in that sense, you'd be like, oh, the Fed needs to cut interest rates. But they are also worried about what are these tariffs gonna do? To inflation. We are in just the infancy, the first or second inning of seeing these pa, these costs being passed along to us as consumers. If you go back the last when 20 this, the summer of 2022, we saw inflation rates get to the highest points since the 1980s, but it took like two years to get there with, with the, the government checks to people and, and, and so forth and, and the spending.

[00:35:24] Bob Costello: So I think the Fed's sitting there going, oh boy, what? What are we supposed to do? We've got, yes, the labor market is slowing. But we are absolutely concerned about where inflation is going. Now, that doesn't mean that we won't get a, a rate cut, one rate cut this year. It could absolutely happen by the spring, it'll start to happen because.

[00:35:47] Bob Costello: Jerome Powell's gonna be gone and the president's gonna get the person he wants in that job. And I have a feeling that person's going to be more aligned with his thinking on, uh, lowering interest rates.

[00:35:59] Scott W. Luton: Interesting. Bob Karin, we need to welcome Bob's Crystal Ball here anytime he wants to join. Am I, am I right?

[00:36:05] Scott W. Luton: Cor.

[00:36:06] Karin Bursa: Absolutely. Um, absolutely. Yeah. I, I, I don't have the depth of analysis that, that Bob has, but I definitely agree that we're gonna see some movement in the next three quarters. Um, for the factors that he, that he described

[00:36:20] Scott W. Luton: well, um, between Bobby, Bob and Karin. We've got like, uh, uh, the Justice League of Analysis and, and industry knowhow here.

[00:36:28] Scott W. Luton: So, Bobby, we're gonna bring it home here. Love all the data, truckload of data insights you're dropping on us. Let's talk about the southeast home base for me and Karin. Tell us your key takeaway here, Bobby.

[00:36:41] Bobby Holland: Well, in the southeast it was the, they had quarterly shipment and spend increases for the first time in four years.

[00:36:48] Bobby Holland: Uh, we see that in 0.1% modest rise in quarter to quarter for shipments, 3.8% rise quarter to quarter in spend. Mm-hmm. For the first time in four years and has combined year over year decreases in both. We're the worst of the five regions,

[00:37:07] Scott W. Luton: so. Okay. All right. Uh, so Bob, the Southeast, uh, Karin and I are both based in metro Atlanta.

[00:37:16] Scott W. Luton: Uh, I think you called DC Homes, is that right, Bob? That's right. Uh, tell us your key takeaways on, in the Southeastern, uh, market.

[00:37:24] Bob Costello: So if we look at just the quarter to quarter numbers, the fact that the southeast went up 3.8% in spending, yet the shipments only barely went up, but 0.1 still went up. Yeah.

[00:37:37] Bob Costello: Mm-hmm. But not nearly as much. And the fact that fuel prices were down, right? Fuel prices, the national price, meaning that fuel surcharges are down. All right. That tells me, first and foremost, when you add all that up. Capacity is tightening up in the southeast. Hmm. So yes, we had some large decreases year over year.

[00:37:59] Bob Costello: Again, there's some tough comps going as, as things have fallen quite a bit in the quarters ahead or, or previously. Uh, but that tells me right now that capacity is tightening up in that region. If we look generally though on some of the things that we see over there, um. There's a lot of manufacturing activity in the southeast.

[00:38:18] Bob Costello: Yep. We've seen over the years. You know, I, I talk to people all the time about trade patterns and, and yes, we lost factories in the upper Midwest. Michigan and so forth. And some of those went overseas, but some of them went to the southeast. Right, right. They went to, you know, Alabama and, and Georgia and, and so forth.

[00:38:39] Bob Costello: So some of that, that activity's important there. Housing starts generally, we're a little, a little soft there, so we talked about some big gains in the, in the northeast, in the southeast, they were a little bit softer, falling, 0.6%. And from quarter to quarter and down, uh, over 4.5%, uh, year over year in the second quarter.

[00:39:00] Bob Costello: And then finally, don't forget that there's some, yes, they're not nearly as big as on the west coast, but there are some very important sea ports as well mm-hmm. That are seeing that whip saw. Effect as well in, in the southeast. Yep.

[00:39:14] Scott W. Luton: Uh, that whipsaw. That's, that's gonna be a, a, a bet. You know, I think there's a, a dictionary that comes out with, um, uh, the most popular terms of the year.

[00:39:22] Scott W. Luton: So I bet in December, I bet whipsaw is gonna be on the top five list. We'll see Karin with what's going on around us here in the southeast, not just in Georgia, but throughout the, uh, eight or nine state region. Your thoughts? K.

[00:39:36] Karin Bursa: Yeah, I, I think the region activity is interesting. I think even in the housing market, we've seen the housing market in the Southeast have a little more depression around it or contraction around it.

[00:39:48] Karin Bursa: So I'm sure that that's contributing. But I also think you had mentioned automotive earlier, Scott.

[00:39:55] Scott W. Luton: Yep.

[00:39:55] Karin Bursa: I think that's becoming more and more important in the southeast region as well with manufacturing facilities and supplier facilities throughout the southeast. And so as that sector continues to kind of get its sea legs or its new legs in the land of tariff living, right.

[00:40:15] Karin Bursa: Um, we're, we're gonna see some fluctuation that gets impacted in the southeast where maybe you don't traditionally think of the southeast as an automotive operation, but there's a lot of heavy, durable, there's a lot of construction equipment that gets manufactured and assembled. As well as you know, consumer vehicles.

[00:40:34] Scott W. Luton: So true. You folks will be surprised and I'm looking at the map over here. South Carolina has had some new automotive plants. Alabama's had some big automotive plants. Tennessee and Kentucky don't sleep on Tennessee and Kentucky. Ford's got some big sites up there. And then Georgia, of course, Kia amongst others made a legendary investment here forever ago.

[00:40:51] Scott W. Luton: But that's where I wanna go. I want to do a quick update speaking of, of automotive 'cause folks. This Rivian plant we've been talking about for a couple years now. Massive project. And it will certainly drive not only considerable jobs, but lots of freight, that clustering effect that Karinn mentioned. And they say, you know, spin on the Rivian plant.

[00:41:11] Scott W. Luton: Down in, uh, Midor, I'll call it. It's been on hold, but TechCrunch is reporting that the massive factory site, which is a $5 billion investment, creating thousands of jobs, they're saying it's already started now. Rivian Leadership said just last week that they plan to restart official construction in early 2026, and this will be one of the biggest automotive investments in the Southeast in quite some time.

[00:41:37] Scott W. Luton: We'll see if it comes to fruition. Hey, Bob. Whether it's a comment on the automotive industry, which of course is a big critical cog in all of this freight in our economy, or I wanna circle back on something you shared earlier. You've got your, all your fingers and maybe your to toes and the pulses of the industry.

[00:41:54] Scott W. Luton: And one of the things you mentioned is all of your conversations with. Fleets, owner, operators, you name it. Yeah. And they're critical sources of, of insights and what's going on. Your quick comment on, on the role of the information and the insights we're getting from fleets across the country. Yeah.

[00:42:12] Bob Costello: Yeah, so I, I talk to fleets almost daily, right?

[00:42:15] Bob Costello: And I look at it as my little, you know, if you've heard the, the Federal Reserve puts out, uh, this great data. They look at data as they go in, but they also have this thing called the Beige Book, and it's really based on conversations that they have with business people. This is my, my beige book, right? I talk to these fleets and here's what I get right now.

[00:42:33] Bob Costello: I mean, we went through. Just long prolonged re freight recession. And, and it was, you know, I look at it normally, a, a freight recession lasts, uh, lasts a year or less, and that's just ripping off the bandaid. This one has been just a slow pull at it. And so you've had a lot of people out there that are like, this is the worst we've ever seen it.

[00:42:55] Bob Costello: And now what they're telling me is, okay, it's not getting if fits. I think it fits great with the data U.S. Bank data. It's not getting any worse. In some cases it's getting a little better. Okay. But they're also a little shellshocked, right? They are nervous about, okay, is this really the end? And I have to tell you, I mean, I'm a little nervous about that too.

[00:43:16] Bob Costello: I mean, I am, I am concerned we couldn't fall back down here with some of the stuff going on with tariffs. I mean, you talk about the rivian, by the way, in this area in Northern Virginia, DC we see a ton of rivian. They are all over the roads here. You know, when you put these tariffs on, the idea is let's build more factories.

[00:43:35] Bob Costello: And they have obviously done that and Key has done that. And there's some big ones that you were were mentioning, and it's all true, but those factories take years Yes. To build years. So the idea is. The pain from tariffs hits fast. Any benefits? And as an economist, again, I'm not getting political, but as an economist, I will tell you, I think that the, the overall, that the costs outweigh the benefits.

[00:44:00] Bob Costello: Okay. But the there, what benefits do arise? It can take years to happen, and that's where I think we have to remember. So don't think, Hey, we're gonna get a lot more freight from all this, this factory activity that's gonna go on. No. If we need to build more factories, that's gonna take a very long time before that ever hits

[00:44:19] Scott W. Luton: Bob, excellent commentary.

[00:44:21] Scott W. Luton: And I would just say, folks, if you aren't familiar with just a site selection component of building new factories, tune into that. They are excellent sources. Of market information, economic information, sector information. So check that out. You can Google site selection, see all kinds of resources. Um, okay, we're gonna have a fast and furious finish.

[00:44:40] Scott W. Luton: We got so much, this is a lot to jam pack in an hour. But man, it is musty. I'm walking away here from Bobby, Bob, and Karin with a new certification, a masterclass, and what's going on. Bob and Karin and Bob, you first, when you peer deeper into your crystal ball, and I really appreciate all of your current analysis and your prognostications you've already shared.

[00:44:59] Scott W. Luton: But what do you, what else do do you expect to see in the freight markets in the months ahead?

[00:45:05] Bob Costello: Yeah, so the other things we haven't really talked about is where do we stand with inventory levels? I touched about briefly it, it was a distribution in the second quarter versus the first quarter, especially in the west.

[00:45:15] Bob Costello: I think that is absolutely true. If you look at inventory levels throughout, you know, manufacturing's quite high, and part of that is that we're trying to, is sprints said earlier, they're trying to bring in these goods, they're bought pulling forward. Some imports to sort of beat the tariffs and and so forth.

[00:45:31] Bob Costello: But at the retail level, they're much leaner, especially if you take out autos. And so I think there's, you know, a give and take. So it depends on where a fleet is, where a shipper is. If they're on the retail side, there's gonna have to be some res, you know, maybe even a little bit of restocking going on.

[00:45:47] Bob Costello: Wholesale's not too bad, sort of normal. And manufacturing is quite, uh, high actually at the moment. So, but overall. Uh, so that's something we didn't talk about that I, I like to look at. Um, but overall, I, I think, you know, as an industry, as transportation folks, I think we gotta realize, okay, this is a boom is not coming our way.

[00:46:08] Bob Costello: Hmm, okay. I would, I would not anticipate that. Seeing the question is do we skirt, I think we skirted an overall, uh, a recession. Do we skirt a, a, a sort of a. Uh, going back down in recession, in, in transportation. And that is sort of the hard part to predict that is where do we end up with tariffs tomorrow?

[00:46:28] Bob Costello: The, the new tariff rates go in effect when in January when we started the year, we had an effective tariff rate in the US of 2.4%. Right now we're. 18.4%. Wow. And that can go up from there. So I think, you know, there are some good underlying things that we were getting excited about that didn't quite hit in the first quarter that I, you know, I think showed up a little bit in, in the second quarter, and with what Bobby was talking about in rebound.

[00:46:57] Bob Costello: Is it sustainable with some of the broader trends that are going on with labor markets and you know, our population and so forth, and the ability to have labor to produce some of this stuff as well as the ability to buy it when prices are likely to go up because of a rising inflation in, in large part, be from tariffs.

[00:47:17] Scott W. Luton: Oh, goodness gracious. You, you need a whole podcast series dedicated to just your last response. I'm serious, Bob, I tell you, Karin, I want you to follow up to that. What do you see? You know, I want,

[00:47:28] Karin Bursa: I wanna pick out all the positive things he said. Please do ignore all the negative if possible. No, but Bob mentioned recession again or, or.

[00:47:37] Karin Bursa: That we may abate a recession in the marketplace. I think that, that, that is positive. I think that the tariffs will take time to ripple through the economy as a whole. And it's different. It's different than how we've operated for the past number of decades. And so we are gonna react emotionally in some areas.

[00:47:59] Karin Bursa: We've done the forward buying. We may do more of that, um, over time, but it'll take some, some time to land. On new patterns, uh, in the marketplace. Bob also mentioned something that I think is really important and that is that these regional performance indicators are, are critical as well. So contraction he mentioned in the southeast or less capacity in the southeast, where we've got some available capacity in other regions across.

[00:48:30] Karin Bursa: Us. I think that we need to keep an eye on that as well because those become factors in how we move. Whether it's raw materials to our manufacturing facilities or finished goods, uh, into distribution centers and into retail. That will come into play as well.

[00:48:47] Scott W. Luton: Karin, excellent commentary and get ready.

[00:48:49] Scott W. Luton: I'm gonna circle back one more time for your patent key takeaway in this Fast and Furious final three or four minutes, because the hour flew right past here today. So let's do this. Let's help folks put all this perspective to action here today in a very helpful manner. And Bobby, I wanna start with making sure folks know how to find the Freight Payment Index.

[00:49:09] Scott W. Luton: Subscribe to this great, powerful free resource. Where would you direct people to Bobby?

[00:49:14] Bobby Holland: Well, as you can see, it's freight.usbank.com. Uh, you provide a small amount of information and it comes to your, uh, email inbox quarterly. It is

[00:49:24] Scott W. Luton: just everything in life should be that easy. Okay. Bob, really have enjoyed, you know, we've had a lot of guest stars in that fourth chair, so to speak, and you have become one of my favorites already.

[00:49:35] Scott W. Luton: You delivered on time in full. So Bob, how can folks connect with you and the really cool things you are doing over at the American Trucking Associations?

[00:49:43] Bob Costello: Yeah. Well thanks for that. Um, this has been great. So, uh, you can go to our website, it's trucking.org. Pretty simple. Um, you'll find a lot of, uh, stuff going on.

[00:49:53] Bob Costello: One thing I would like to highlight is in October we're having our big annual meeting in lovely San Diego. Uh, always love going out there and, uh, not only will I be giving a, a broad economic update at that industry meeting, which is very. You know, there'll be a few thousand people at least there. Uh, but I'm also partnering up with U.S. Bank to talk about data and, and all of this as well.

[00:50:16] Bob Costello: So we'll have a separate session for, for that. So exciting stuff happening in San Diego.

[00:50:21] Scott W. Luton: Bob, I love it. We got National Truck driver appreciation week coming up mm-hmm. In September. And folks, we got a love on the truck drivers. They, they, they make the ma majority of their critical backbone of what goes on in global supply chain.

[00:50:34] Scott W. Luton: Bob, appreciate what you and ATA do in that regard. Okay. Karin. Uh, you have a very unfair question, very unfair question I 'cause Bobby and Bob and you have really delivered, but if you had to pick one thing that folks have to dial in from this last power hour, what was that Karin?

[00:50:51] Karin Bursa: Yeah, I, I would say the one thing is that it's early, but we are hitting a possible turning point in the freight market.

[00:50:59] Karin Bursa: Bobby opened by stating that both shipments and spend volumes were increasing for the first time since 2022. So that's a sign that goods are starting to move again across the country. And while our year over year numbers are still down, these declines are narrowing. So all five regions. Had some positive indicators in them.

[00:51:23] Karin Bursa: That's good news. And, um, hopefully we'll see some early signs of stabilization as we know more about tariffs and then interest rates. So stay tuned, come back every quarter or subscribe and get that report. It's gonna help you make smarter, faster decisions about your business, whether in supply chain or finance or business strategy.

[00:51:45] Karin Bursa: Some of these changes take time to implement in your organizations.

[00:51:49] Scott W. Luton: Well put, well put folks. We drop the link there. Check out the report, check out the cool things that Bob and ATA team are doing over at trucking.org. Download. Make sure you sign up for the freight payment index as Bobby has shared. Uh, hit your inbox like, like clockwork every quarter and you combine that with all the other metrics and data and, and trusted resources of true information out there that's gonna help you make.

[00:52:14] Scott W. Luton: Better decisions much, much faster and much more confidently. And as you heard it here from Bob, we're not expecting a full blown recession. I'll take that. Good news for now. So big thanks. Uh, Bobby, Bobby Holland, director for Business Analytics with U.S. Bank. Thank you Bobby. Uh, thank you Bob Costello, chief Economist and Senior Vice President of International Trade and Security Policy for the American Trucking Associations.

[00:52:38] Scott W. Luton: Bob Coen back anytime. That my, I would love it. Uh, Karin Bursa. Always a pleasure. Really enjoyed your perspective here today. Thanks for being here.

[00:52:47] Karin Bursa: Thank you. I enjoyed it. Learned a lot.

[00:52:49] Scott W. Luton: I did too. I've got about 27 pages of notes today. Uh, folks, hopefully you enjoyed this conversation as much as I have. Be sure to connect with Bob, Bobby, and Karin.

[00:52:58] Scott W. Luton: More importantly, take one thing you heard from them here today. Share it with your team, your colleagues, your families. Well, they'll be better off. You did. And hey, as Karin says, we gotta take facts and feelings, that approach. To not only life, but to certainly the leading supply chains. And hopefully we can take these inputs from the show today and convert them into Ds, not words.

[00:53:18] Scott W. Luton: So with all that said, on behalf of the supply chain now, team, Scott Luton here, challenging you, do good, give forward, be the change that's needed. We'll see you next time, right back here. On supply chain now. Thanks everybody.

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