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Fraser McGruer: Hello and
welcome to the Cognitive

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Engineering podcast, brought to
you by Aleph Insights and

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produced by me, Fraser McGruer.
I'm here with Nick Hare and

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Peter Coghill of Aleph Insights
on this podcast, we look at a

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wide range of topics, and today
we're asking the question, Where

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have all the inventors gone?
Hey, Nick, where have all the

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inventors gone?

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Nick Hare: Yeah, do you remember
Fraser, you're we're all of a

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similar age and age. And when I
was a kid, one of my favourite

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ever programmes was Tomorrow's
World. And I think I was first

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introduced to it at the age of
about four. What's Tomorrow's

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World? Well, it was a programme
that ran from 1965 to 2003 and

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it was, it was a, basically a
programme about new and future

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technology that was coming
online. And the, I mean, one of

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the gimmicks, I suppose, of the
programme was that it was live.

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Was it live? Yeah, it was live
until, right up until the late

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90s, it was live. And obviously
it lost something, and it

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stopped being live. And of
course, that meant half the time

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the things wouldn't work, the
robots would kind of go wrong or

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fall over or whatever. Yeah. But
the point is, it was didn't stop

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it being, I thought absolutely
like, so exciting to see these

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inventions that would be on
screen, and maybe in a year or

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two's time, you could have them
at home. And so some of the,

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some of the key things that were
demonstrated on there was the

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home computer. Do you want to
guess when that was first

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demonstrated?

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Fraser McGruer: So size 65
computer, yeah, the home

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computer, 1969

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Nick Hare: 67 not bad. How about
the ATM and Chip and PIN

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technology?

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Fraser McGruer: I would say
similar. Yeah. 69

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Nick Hare: digital watch, 1972
the CD player, 1981 mobile

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phone, 1979 all now things we're
quite familiar with, and in some

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cases, which are now obsolete as
a CD player, yeah. So, as I

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said, it was always broadcast
live. But the thing is, it was

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just really exciting. And what
they demonstrated, you know, was

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a bunch of tech. And what's
technology is things with

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flashing lights on, with knobs,
keys, things that did stuff they

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would move or flash or walk
about, and it was cancelled,

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apparently, according to the
BBC, just through eventually,

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the viewing figures just tailed
off, right? So for some reason,

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people just got bored of seeing
future technology in the early

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2000s and then I thought, well,
hang on. Do you remember the

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innovations catalogue also
cancelled in 2003 what's the

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innovations? Oh, the innovations
catalogue was it a brilliant

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little magazine that was
published from 1985 up till 2003

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and was included in Sunday
papers. And it had all these

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brilliant gadgets in right
things like light up slippers,

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revolving tie racks, a spider
arm's length spider catching

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device, potato powered clocks.
No, they weren't all ridiculous.

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Actually, there was the Dyson
vacuum cleaner was. And the

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thing I always wanted, which was
the most expensive thing, which

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was a laser display device you'd
plug into your Hi Fi, and it

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would do like, laser patterns on
your ceiling and tied to the

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music cool. It was all stuff
like that, like ranging from,

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you know, a fiver through to
sort of 1500 quid and and again,

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it was, it was sort of everyone
used to make fun of it, because

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some of them were just utterly
ridiculous. A lot of them were

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just randomly combining two
things, like, you know, this is

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a pen that also tells the time,
or this is, you know, a

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dictionary that also makes you a
cup of coffee or whatever. But

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there was something fun about
this idea of gadgets, like in

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there was futuristic gadgety
stuff. Anyway, it does feel to

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me that these days, technology
is basically smartphone apps.

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And, you know, I sort of think,
well, what would tomorrow's

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world be like now it would just
be, well, here's another

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smartphone app that does
something useful, you know,

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because kind of boring. So, is
it true? How's technology am i

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Is it a misperception that
innovation has stopped being

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interesting gadgets? You know?
Is it the case that inventors,

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you know, the kind of people
would come on with the beard,

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Professor, somebody or other,
you know, you don't really hear

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about them anymore. You do hear
about Elon Musk and you know

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people like Jeff Bezos, but
they're business guys, like the

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nutty inventor types. Where have
they gone? Basically,

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technology. Is it boring? Or am
I just, am I just, is it rose

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tinted spectacles? Great
question.

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Fraser McGruer: Didn't wasn't it
on Tomorrow's World? They had

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that one particular inventor guy
who would come along every now

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and again. I'm sure he on Blue
Peter, so maybe this would help.

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So I remember he had this really
cool invention for getting rid

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of worms, I think, in your
garden, and it was to cycle

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around. Actually, you kind of
want worms in your cycle. But

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anyway, he what he did. He had
this tricycle or bicycle that he

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cycled around his garden that
had, he'd, he'd tied something

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tinkly to the wheels that
imitated, if you were a worm,

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would sound exactly like rain,
and worms don't like rain, so

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they get drowned. Apparently,
they'll all come out, and that's

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how you get rid of your worms.
Do you know who this

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Nick Hare: guy is? That's
precisely the kind of thing I'm

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talking about. Yeah. See,
nowadays it would just be a

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smartphone app that played the
sound of a tinker. There'll be

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no tricycle with bells on, yeah,

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Fraser McGruer: oh, yeah, okay,
yeah. There's so many questions

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I want to ask, but look, go for
it, Peter.

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Peter Coghill: Yeah. I think I'm
gonna act as devil's advocate

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and challenge a very a number of
different things about this

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premise. I don't think invention
has disappeared, so I, but I and

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I can, I think we can challenge
this, this, this assertion that

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it's moved from atoms to bits,
that it's all now smartphones, I

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think that there's definitely,
it definitely is the case, that

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there is lots of apps there, but
I think there's also lots of

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physical invention going on. I
think we can also challenge the

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premise that that's any
necessarily a bad thing if that

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were the case?

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Fraser McGruer: Well, it's just
boring, if, if that, I think

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that's it. But anyway, yeah,
fine, yeah, okay.

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Peter Coghill: So, so has the
lone inventor disappeared?

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There's also something so i So,
I think I'm going to change that

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to begin with. It's like, Well,
did they ever really exist in

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the first place? You know, we,
we held up a very, sort of

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relatively small number of
people as being these great

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inventors of certain things, but
a it's a small number of people.

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So I'm thinking like the Tim
Berners Lees and the Edisons and

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the

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Unknown: Alexander Graham Bell
and the right,

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Peter Coghill: influential
right. But in many cases they

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weren't, weren't working
completely on their own. You

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know, even, even Bell was not
working. You know, Graham Bell,

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he had lots of assistants and
people working on his Bell's

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telephone.

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Nick Hare: Yeah, perhaps he was
more, I mean, they were perhaps

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more like Steve

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Peter Coghill: Jobs, yeah,
research lead than a lone

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inventor.

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Fraser McGruer: Maybe we're a
bit skewed and projecting as

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well by our Britishness, okay,
that we like this idea of, you

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know, amateurism, and not

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Nick Hare: sorry, just I, and I
know this is the same era that

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we've been talking about, which
is the sort of 80s. But you

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know, as a figure in in fiction,
the kind of lone professor,

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inventor guy was definitely a
big thing when I was a kid, and

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in a way that I don't see
anymore. So you've got your, you

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know, back to the future, of
course, Doc Brown, 1985 there's

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the dad in Gremlins who's more
on the kind of innovations

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catalogue line you've got.

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Peter Coghill: They're not,
they're not hit. They're not

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heroes though, well, I mean,
they're comical, but

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Nick Hare: I know, but based on
an archetype that we all

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understand, yeah, but so, so,
but that archetype has

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disappeared, like, what's an
inventor now, really, the

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closest thing, I think you'd
have to say, is someone like a

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kind of a kind of coder sitting
in a cafe, black hat with, yeah,

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that kind of, it's like, so
let's go back. Peter gone, yeah,

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Fraser McGruer: so was it
everything?

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Peter Coghill: Yes, it wasn't
everything. And I don't think

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it's necessary. I think, you
know, do we egg up the lone

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inventor as a more prevalent
thing, or as a more important

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thing than it actually was? And
I so I think we can challenge

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that and so there is actually,
there's a bit, there's a mythos

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around inventors. Men in sheds
and women in sheds have never

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actually been all that
influential. They just make a

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good story, if you can say that,

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Fraser McGruer: what's a good
example of something that was

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invented,

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Peter Coghill: then Bell
invented the telephone and Marco

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invented the radio. But he
didn't. They did. They did. They

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they made the first kind of
successful one. But there were

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lots of other versions
beforehand that they kind of

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work, built on top of, and there
were lots of other people around

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them, in their respective labs
or companies or whatever that

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were helping them get there. So
they weren't lone people in

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sheds.

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Nick Hare: But we just like, I
suppose we like there is

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something nice about the
thought, yeah, someone, yes.

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Peter Coghill: There's a
romantic, it's a remote there's

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a romanticism about having this
lone per this lone hero can set

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this inventive hero who comes
along and makes something quite

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amazing. So sorry, yeah, go on,
Peter. So what I'm saying is

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they're not as influential as
they could. It could be the case

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they were not as influential as
they perhaps say it being as

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cultural, sort of Misty eyes
looking back, they were, what

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about then?

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Fraser McGruer: And maybe this
is what you about to go on to,

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because I know there's a couple
of things you're gonna say, but

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one of them was, okay, perhaps
the load inventor thing is not a

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thing. But also, what about this
thing of inventing things,

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physical stuff, atoms versus
bits. What's so do you have any

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thoughts on that? Are we ready
to move on to that? Yet? I've

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got some data,

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Peter Coghill: yeah, we've got
data, data, number of events or

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something, yeah.

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Nick Hare: Well, I've got so I
looked at the pat the World

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Intellectual Property
organisation, yeah, which is a

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UN agency, who kind of
coordinate IP. So in other

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words, they kind of, they kind
of get patent registration data.

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They don't themselves do that,
but they gather the data and

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they put it in one place, and
they make it as incomprehensible

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and impossible to query as you
can possibly get. So I really

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what I wanted to do was work
out, well, how many patents are

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issued to individuals versus and
I. The only way to do that would

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be to really I would have to
take days of working out how

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their API worked and downloading
stuff, and so I didn't have time

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to do it. But what I did could
look at is the categories of

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technology. So 35 top level
technology categories, and

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between 1980 and 2023 the
biggest absolute growth in terms

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of numbers of patents issued was
in computer technology, digital

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communication, electrical
machinery. So it is obvious

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that's the thing that has really
seen the most growth in

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patterns. So that perception is
not entirely

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Peter Coghill: there's a bit of
bias in computers are where it's

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at. Peter, yeah, there's a bit
of bias, potentially, because

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there's a lot of money in that,
right? I think we can, we can

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speculate also, number of
patents is not the, not

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necessarily a great proxy for
how culturally prevalent the

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technology,

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Fraser McGruer: no, but what's
the patents that are not that

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kind of stuff. So the lowest

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Nick Hare: absolute growth is
nano tech, although that's

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actually the highest potential
percentage growth, because it

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was hardly any in 1980 it was
but things like, well, analysis

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of biological materials, organic
fine chemistry, machine tools

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and materials. But the key thing
is that even like computer

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technology, the top category,
still only 11% of all filings in

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2023 right? So nine out of 10
patents aren't computer

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technology. There's some other
thing and and so I think what

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I'm saying is, I think Peter's
right, is that actually nine out

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of 10 new inventions are a thing
that does something. Now it

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might be a boring thing, like a
new battery or a new kind of

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sensor or, I suppose, a new kind
of drone wing. I mean, God, I

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don't know what they are, but
the point is, it's not true to

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say that the majority of
inventions these days just some

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sort of computer technology, at
least in terms of patents.

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Peter Coghill: Yeah, I challenge
that. A new type of battery

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would be boring. You might find
it exciting. Well, I mean, I

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think you would if, if it was
explained to you thus, you know,

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imagine, like, well before
lithium batteries, you didn't

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have, my God, he didn't have
electric vehicles, because you

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just didn't have the power
density. Whereas you would

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unlock a new type of battery,
you can do all these new things.

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So if we unlocked another type
of battery, which is 10 times,

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100 times the power density, we
could do even more loads of cool

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things.

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Nick Hare: Yeah, batteries are
actually more, much more. That

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is,

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Peter Coghill: I've had a
similar conversation with you

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about concrete, and then you
agreed with me that was quite

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exciting.

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Nick Hare: Yeah, okay. I mean,
you're an engineer, like you can

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make everything exciting, yeah,
so, and I think just more data

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that sports Peters claims is a
paper by the NBER Well, working

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paper from 2005 which looked at,
so I didn't, I couldn't get the

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data first hand, but this looked
at what kinds of entities are

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getting patents issued to them.
And interestingly, so they quite

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a different perception to me.
Well, it's not perception in

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their case, it's actual data.

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Peter Coghill: Well, they
collect the data and then they

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perceived, well, they

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Nick Hare: perceived it, yeah.
And the they, according to this

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analysis, the heyday of the
individual inventor, at least in

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the US, was the 19th century.
Okay, actually, that begins to

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make sense. And if you think
about the sort of figure of

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someone like Doc Brown, that
he's a quite 19th century kind

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of figure, and I think, you
know, you think back to your

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Jules Verne kind of exactly the
Time Traveller in HG Wells and

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so on and and so. And then, you
know, increasingly, the trend

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over the 20th Century was for
inventors to basically work via

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firms. So it looks like
inventors being less of a thing

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and firms being more of a thing.
But then they make the point

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that some of that is, is simply
because firms. A lot of it is

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people becoming employees of,
you know, Bell Labs. But some of

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it is Alexander Graham Bell
setting up Bell Labs. And, you

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know, so, so, I guess the idea
is that you're seeing a

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concentration of activity into
firms because, you know,

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increasingly you need higher
capital requirements to make a

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successful invention. You know
that. And I think this goes back

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to one of your explanations,
Peter, is you're sort of saying

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low hanging fruit. What you need
to invent a telegraph is quite

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different to what you need to
invent an internet.

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Fraser McGruer: So if I've got
this right, atoms versus bits is

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actually good news. Peter,
you're right. We're wrong. Okay,

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that's the first one, yeah.
Second inventors were a thing,

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and hey, now they're not. And
Peter going, I'm not so sure

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about that. Peter's maybe right,
but

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Nick Hare: actually, instead of
the 1980s it was the 1880s So,

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yeah,

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Peter Coghill: okay, hey, wait,
headway, just on your own.

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Nick Hare: But I want to pick up
something else. Peter said,

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because Peter said, because I
think actually it, you remember,

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we've done, we did a podcast
quite a long time ago about

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where famous people have gone,
like, it seems like you don't

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get famous people anymore. And I
think we identified that there

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was this kind of sweet spot in
the 60s when you had enough

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media for there to be famous
people at all. You know, instead

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of just being heard of in one.
Town. You're heard of

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everywhere, but not enough
media, certainly not enough

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media that you can use in your
bedroom to, you know, to get a

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billion famous people, which is
kind of what we have now, so

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that, like, nobody's famous
again, but because everyone's

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famous, and I think to some
extent, like, it is so much

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easier to be an inventor at
home. Now you can 3d print

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parts. You can, you know, you
can get a Arduino or a Raspberry

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Pi. I can write computer
programmes, you know, which do

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things that are at home that I
would never have been able to do

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in the 80s. And just because it
can download software libraries

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or download data, and just, do
you know, we, in a sense, like

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everyone, there must be millions
of people, if ever, if we

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counted everyone uploading to
Thingiverse or uploading to

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GitHub as an inventor, then
suddenly the world's full of

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them. Yeah.

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Peter Coghill: And I think this
thing worth pointing out is how

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democratised is. So they not
only are there no fewer

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inventors there, I think there
are many, many many more,

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because people have got more
free time, more more spare cash,

305
00:16:04,260 --> 00:16:07,200
and all of these tools, all this
infrastructure that didn't exist

306
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before GitHub, loads of code
that you can use and reuse,

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00:16:10,920 --> 00:16:15,180
loads of maker spaces, places,
especially short, it's just

308
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absolutely swimming in them.
Places you can go borrow a bench

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and some tools and some
materials to make, to try out

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and make a thing and, and, yeah,
you can buy a 3d printer for a

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00:16:26,540 --> 00:16:30,500
few 100 quid, keep it at home.
All these cool things,

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00:16:30,560 --> 00:16:33,680
technology and infrastructure
we've never had before means

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00:16:33,680 --> 00:16:37,820
that invention is now within way
more people's grasp than it used

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00:16:37,820 --> 00:16:38,060
to be.

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00:16:38,060 --> 00:16:39,800
Fraser McGruer: I feel the
world's moving on without me.

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I'm bit worried, because things
like Thingiverse make a space,

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and I kind of vaguely know about
GitHub, but I just don't know

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00:16:47,080 --> 00:16:48,220
about any of this stuff.

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Nick Hare: Don't worry. It's not
that you're not that kind of

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00:16:50,680 --> 00:16:53,320
inventor. You're that you're
you're a different kind of

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00:16:53,320 --> 00:16:58,420
creator. Thank you. You're a
creator of chaos and art, and

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that's different. That's a
different kind of thing. Yeah,

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00:17:01,200 --> 00:17:04,980
I'll take that. I think so a
couple of other potential

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economic things going on. So we
talked about the, you know, the

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fact that it's pot, it's
plausible that to do invention

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00:17:11,940 --> 00:17:15,900
now has a higher kind of capital
requirement that but, but I

327
00:17:15,900 --> 00:17:19,320
think there's also the fact that
the precipitous declining cost

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00:17:19,680 --> 00:17:24,440
of objects, really, you know,
the manufacturing revolution of

329
00:17:24,440 --> 00:17:29,120
the last 50 years. This is not
appreciated, really, I think, to

330
00:17:29,120 --> 00:17:31,640
the extent that it should be,
but I don't, if you remember a

331
00:17:31,640 --> 00:17:34,520
documentary, it's kind of a
documentary stroke experiment,

332
00:17:34,520 --> 00:17:37,640
probably about 15 years ago,
where they made a family go

333
00:17:37,640 --> 00:17:39,980
through a year a day, and that
it was kind of a social

334
00:17:39,980 --> 00:17:43,780
experiment where they gave that,
I think they started in 1965 or

335
00:17:43,780 --> 00:17:47,140
something, and they were given
new technology as it came out.

336
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And like, the first piece of
technology was the teas made,

337
00:17:52,000 --> 00:17:55,240
which is an alarm clock combined
with making you a cup of tea.

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Make a cup of tea, and then it
wakes you up. Yeah, something

339
00:17:57,580 --> 00:18:01,260
that not a silly combination,
and it was, and it was something

340
00:18:01,260 --> 00:18:04,740
like in today's money, 2000
pounds when it first came out,

341
00:18:04,740 --> 00:18:07,680
something utterly preposterous,
you know, and now, and I was

342
00:18:07,680 --> 00:18:10,920
just so I looked at what my
purchases have been, forget what

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00:18:10,920 --> 00:18:14,700
you would regard as gadgets over
the last year. And they include

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00:18:14,700 --> 00:18:19,800
an electric kettle invented in
1891 a beard trimmer invented in

345
00:18:20,220 --> 00:18:27,980
1898 an e cigarette. 2003 a rice
cooker, invented in 1956 carbon

346
00:18:27,980 --> 00:18:31,340
monoxide detector, boring, but
useful. The modern ones were

347
00:18:31,340 --> 00:18:36,200
came out in the 1990s hole
punch, 1886 that one battery

348
00:18:36,200 --> 00:18:39,500
tester, apparently not, not
commercialised till 1980s a

349
00:18:39,500 --> 00:18:43,360
Water Flosser for my teeth,
wireless microphones, pH

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00:18:43,360 --> 00:18:47,440
detector strips and some LED
bulbs. Now, a lot of these,

351
00:18:47,500 --> 00:18:52,720
these are all things that would
have been quite an outlay 40

352
00:18:52,720 --> 00:18:55,180
years ago. These would be things
that would cost you a

353
00:18:55,180 --> 00:18:58,180
substantial amount of money, and
they're all basically nothing

354
00:18:58,180 --> 00:19:00,960
these days. You know, you can
just get them for nothing on the

355
00:19:00,960 --> 00:19:04,980
internet and and I just think we
don't, maybe just do not

356
00:19:04,980 --> 00:19:08,580
appreciate how many fabulous
gadgets we're surrounded by, to

357
00:19:08,580 --> 00:19:11,160
the extent that we just sort of
forget about them and don't

358
00:19:11,160 --> 00:19:15,600
notice how many brilliant things
there are in our kitchens and

359
00:19:15,600 --> 00:19:19,260
living rooms doing cool stuff.
What's a Water Flosser? It's

360
00:19:19,260 --> 00:19:22,580
basically like a little squirty
water jet that that does the job

361
00:19:22,580 --> 00:19:26,900
of flossing, but uses water
instead of floss. I wouldn't

362
00:19:26,900 --> 00:19:29,720
recommend it, to be honest.
Okay, this hasn't changed my

363
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life.

364
00:19:30,140 --> 00:19:32,900
Fraser McGruer: Okay, okay. So
yeah, we're actually surrounded

365
00:19:32,900 --> 00:19:36,020
by loads of cool stuff. Yeah, I
reckon, yeah, yeah. What do we

366
00:19:36,020 --> 00:19:38,180
got? Where are we going with
this? So we were talking about

367
00:19:38,180 --> 00:19:41,440
the low hanging fruit stuff,
which is, hey, there's a reason

368
00:19:41,440 --> 00:19:46,300
why individual inventors is not
a thing anymore. Because for one

369
00:19:46,300 --> 00:19:49,420
person just to get the easy
stuff is easy, and so they did

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00:19:49,420 --> 00:19:52,000
Peter Coghill: it. Yeah, right.
Go on. Then. So, yeah, take,

371
00:19:53,140 --> 00:19:55,840
Nick Hare: sorry, just the
radical, the really big

372
00:19:55,840 --> 00:19:59,440
inventions have been invented. I
think that's the argument that,

373
00:19:59,440 --> 00:20:01,740
you know, yes, a. Loan inventors
can create new little,

374
00:20:01,920 --> 00:20:05,220
interesting shapes and maybe a
new software. Oh, I'm sorry,

375
00:20:05,640 --> 00:20:08,940
but, but, you know, so there's
more people inventing software

376
00:20:08,940 --> 00:20:13,200
now than many, more than there
were 30 years ago. But there's

377
00:20:13,200 --> 00:20:16,800
fewer people invent it, or at
least they're more concentrated.

378
00:20:16,800 --> 00:20:19,740
They're in large firms inventing
the equivalent of penicillin.

379
00:20:19,740 --> 00:20:21,800
Yeah, because the big stuff's
been done. Yeah.

380
00:20:21,800 --> 00:20:23,900
Peter Coghill: So, I mean,
following this follow, I think

381
00:20:23,900 --> 00:20:26,840
following a case study is
helpful, considering the lithium

382
00:20:26,840 --> 00:20:28,580
ion battery, right? So, loves

383
00:20:28,580 --> 00:20:30,560
Fraser McGruer: these things
batteries, because it's, oh,

384
00:20:30,620 --> 00:20:31,940
this is so exciting. I can't

385
00:20:31,940 --> 00:20:33,620
Peter Coghill: wait, because
it's because it's kind of

386
00:20:33,620 --> 00:20:37,100
pivotal, right? So it was early
80s, whether where the

387
00:20:37,100 --> 00:20:41,260
breakthroughs in the chemistry
were made. I mean, the chemistry

388
00:20:41,320 --> 00:20:45,700
was always, was, was understood
up to then, what they, what the

389
00:20:45,700 --> 00:20:50,500
chemists then, who are, who were
Nobel Prize laureates of good

390
00:20:50,500 --> 00:20:57,760
enough, Whittingham and Yoshino,
they, they get science names,

391
00:20:58,000 --> 00:21:00,840
three, three people, I think two
of them were working the same

392
00:21:00,840 --> 00:21:04,500
group, and one Yoshino, was
independent in working

393
00:21:04,500 --> 00:21:09,180
independently in Japan, but
they, but they was it was

394
00:21:09,180 --> 00:21:12,180
stabilising it so that it could
be put into a manufacturable

395
00:21:12,180 --> 00:21:15,180
format. That where they where
their breakthrough came. But

396
00:21:15,240 --> 00:21:18,900
before the 1980s you didn't have
lithium batteries. And after

397
00:21:18,900 --> 00:21:21,320
that, after the 80s, you did
have lithium batteries that, as

398
00:21:21,320 --> 00:21:24,440
we said, kicked off lots of
different mobile devices that

399
00:21:24,440 --> 00:21:29,480
were otherwise not sort of
feasible. But since then, you've

400
00:21:29,480 --> 00:21:34,640
had continuous, but fairly
incremental improvements on that

401
00:21:34,640 --> 00:21:39,380
design. So it feels like there
was a lithium and battery

402
00:21:39,500 --> 00:21:44,320
problem. They solved it. But now
we haven't that they've picked

403
00:21:44,320 --> 00:21:47,740
that fruit. The next fruit is
the next battery. Fruit is much

404
00:21:47,740 --> 00:21:50,560
higher up and it's harder to
get. Yeah, so it's three

405
00:21:50,560 --> 00:21:55,300
people's effort made this thing
work, versus the billions of

406
00:21:55,360 --> 00:22:00,240
pounds of investment per year
and millions and millions of

407
00:22:00,240 --> 00:22:03,900
person hours that go into what's
the next thing after the theme

408
00:22:03,900 --> 00:22:07,620
battery, 100, you know, loads of
loads of institutions are

409
00:22:07,620 --> 00:22:09,600
pursuing that because it's such
a big deal.

410
00:22:09,900 --> 00:22:12,480
Fraser McGruer: So what I was
about to say is, what I think

411
00:22:12,480 --> 00:22:15,660
you were saying is that
incrementalism is less dramatic

412
00:22:15,660 --> 00:22:18,060
and less interesting. But it
sounds to me that you're quite

413
00:22:18,060 --> 00:22:20,900
interested in actually, yeah.
But so incrementalism,

414
00:22:20,900 --> 00:22:23,060
Peter Coghill: yeah, and other
things standing like the

415
00:22:23,060 --> 00:22:27,080
microchips, you know, the the
going from the transistor to the

416
00:22:27,140 --> 00:22:31,340
microchip was quite a big jump.
Even the transistor was quite a

417
00:22:31,340 --> 00:22:34,100
bit. It was, was, was, but
getting the transistor was quite

418
00:22:34,100 --> 00:22:36,740
a sort of small effort, a couple
of people working on that bell

419
00:22:36,740 --> 00:22:40,360
labs, I think. But then to get
the transit, to get the once

420
00:22:40,360 --> 00:22:43,420
you, once you've got that jump,
once you've done that jump to a

421
00:22:43,540 --> 00:22:46,060
microchip, you've got
incremental improvements again,

422
00:22:46,060 --> 00:22:48,700
kind of year on year, they
double in capacity and things,

423
00:22:48,700 --> 00:22:49,000
and

424
00:22:49,780 --> 00:22:52,240
Nick Hare: I suppose so the the
thing, or incrementally

425
00:22:52,240 --> 00:22:55,780
improving again, each
improvement is going to, you

426
00:22:55,780 --> 00:22:58,720
would assume, be harder and
harder, yeah, but it but, but

427
00:22:58,720 --> 00:23:02,580
also for the field of kind of
new potential, new the new

428
00:23:02,580 --> 00:23:05,520
transistor or the microchip, or
the new innovative thing. What's

429
00:23:05,520 --> 00:23:09,960
after themselves? Yeah. Are also
getting harder to Yeah. But, I

430
00:23:09,960 --> 00:23:12,720
mean, I think there's that yeah,
so that it sort of feels like

431
00:23:12,720 --> 00:23:12,960
there's

432
00:23:12,960 --> 00:23:15,720
Peter Coghill: even a law for
it. There's a law for it. Oh

433
00:23:15,720 --> 00:23:18,720
god. E rooms law, which I've
never heard of. It's kind of the

434
00:23:18,720 --> 00:23:22,040
inverse of Moore's law. What's
Moore's law? Don't worry about

435
00:23:22,040 --> 00:23:25,580
Moore's law, because we're not
talking about that is, let me

436
00:23:25,580 --> 00:23:28,280
look him up. So he was Laura,
sort of, the is, is an

437
00:23:28,280 --> 00:23:33,500
observation that the cost of
specifically in drug discovery,

438
00:23:33,620 --> 00:23:37,460
doubles every nine years. Wow,
in pharma, just because it's

439
00:23:37,460 --> 00:23:41,680
harder to get progress because
you've done all the easy things,

440
00:23:41,980 --> 00:23:43,660
Nick Hare: yeah, I think, and I
think there's some, there's

441
00:23:43,660 --> 00:23:46,540
something else as well, which I
think is probably related to

442
00:23:46,540 --> 00:23:48,880
this thing I was saying about
the precipitous decline of

443
00:23:48,880 --> 00:23:53,620
gadgets, which is the how, just
quite how much invention is

444
00:23:53,620 --> 00:23:57,520
effectively free, right? So, you
know, if you invent a new, cool

445
00:23:57,580 --> 00:24:00,660
shape and you upload it to
Thingiverse, it's kind of free.

446
00:24:00,720 --> 00:24:04,740
Most GitHub, you put things on
GitHub, you've created something

447
00:24:04,740 --> 00:24:08,880
new, and it's free. Ai, you
know, models are basically free.

448
00:24:08,940 --> 00:24:13,920
Like so much stuff is free that
what previously would have been

449
00:24:13,920 --> 00:24:17,280
pursued, it might have been a
massive project that a company

450
00:24:17,280 --> 00:24:20,480
like Microsoft might have done
to produce something which I can

451
00:24:20,480 --> 00:24:23,000
just download for free now, and
because, you know, because it

452
00:24:23,060 --> 00:24:25,760
would be monetizable, because
you could make tonnes of money

453
00:24:25,760 --> 00:24:29,600
off it, now it's much harder to
do that off the kinds of things.

454
00:24:29,600 --> 00:24:31,220
So what we're saying is there's
a lot more.

455
00:24:31,220 --> 00:24:33,260
Peter Coghill: Just download, if
you try and monetize your shape

456
00:24:33,500 --> 00:24:35,120
exactly, download a symbol,
someone

457
00:24:35,120 --> 00:24:36,860
Nick Hare: else will make a
shape exactly the same and

458
00:24:36,860 --> 00:24:39,800
upload that for free. So it sort
of feels like, okay, you've got

459
00:24:39,800 --> 00:24:42,520
the fact that these things are
just not as valuable as they

460
00:24:42,520 --> 00:24:46,300
used to be, combined with the
fact that you're increasingly

461
00:24:46,300 --> 00:24:49,900
getting to more and more costly
things to create, sort of just,

462
00:24:49,960 --> 00:24:53,980
I think, more or less, explains
how you can have both much more

463
00:24:53,980 --> 00:24:57,580
creation and invention, and at
the same time it be harder and

464
00:24:57,580 --> 00:25:00,120
harder to create the genuinely
new breakthrough. Yeah. So,

465
00:25:00,120 --> 00:25:03,420
yeah, makes sense. I think we've
actually more or less closed

466
00:25:03,420 --> 00:25:07,020
this off. One thing, I think,
which is undeniable, and I think

467
00:25:07,020 --> 00:25:09,900
we've covered all the reasons
for it, but which is, I think,

468
00:25:09,900 --> 00:25:13,680
is a bit sad, is that I don't
think people are as excited

469
00:25:13,680 --> 00:25:16,260
about technology as they used to
be. And I think you know that

470
00:25:16,260 --> 00:25:19,500
that certainly the 80s, to me,
was a real high point for being

471
00:25:19,500 --> 00:25:23,420
excited about and as Peter is so
rightly reminding us, there's a

472
00:25:23,420 --> 00:25:26,780
lot of exciting things out there
being invented, new stuff, a lot

473
00:25:26,780 --> 00:25:29,840
of it, maybe it's not like as
consumer focused as it used to

474
00:25:29,840 --> 00:25:33,440
be, if it's a new gadget, but
it, you know, it's sad that we

475
00:25:33,740 --> 00:25:37,340
when I was a kid, space was a
big thing, you know, Carl Sagan

476
00:25:37,400 --> 00:25:41,920
and and the space shuttle and
all that, space is a big thing

477
00:25:41,920 --> 00:25:45,280
now, yeah, like, space is bloody
amazing, and we're and we're

478
00:25:45,340 --> 00:25:50,860
massively low themselves. I know
it's incredible, and yet, kids

479
00:25:50,920 --> 00:25:54,040
are just, you know, it's not
like, it's a big thing, like it

480
00:25:54,040 --> 00:25:56,200
used to be. I mean, we, you
know, my dad used to take me to

481
00:25:56,200 --> 00:25:59,080
the Science Museum to go and see
the space exhibition. It was

482
00:25:59,320 --> 00:26:01,980
like, this is we're going to be
all on the moon in 30 years now,

483
00:26:01,980 --> 00:26:05,700
we might actually end up on the
moon in 30 years time. It's much

484
00:26:05,700 --> 00:26:09,480
more plausible now than it was
then. And yet we just sort of

485
00:26:09,480 --> 00:26:13,440
go, oh yeah, okay, another,
another rocket, whatever. So

486
00:26:13,440 --> 00:26:17,100
it's, you know, I don't know.
It's just, it would be nice to

487
00:26:17,100 --> 00:26:17,940
get some of that

488
00:26:18,179 --> 00:26:20,299
Peter Coghill: excitement back.
Maybe it's become too routine,

489
00:26:20,299 --> 00:26:21,439
because there's so much of it,

490
00:26:21,440 --> 00:26:23,720
Nick Hare: because there's so
much of it, I suspect that's it

491
00:26:23,720 --> 00:26:27,680
has the idea of new technology
become so ubiquitous that it's

492
00:26:27,680 --> 00:26:28,160
boring.

493
00:26:28,460 --> 00:26:30,740
Fraser McGruer: So look two
questions. I think they're both

494
00:26:30,740 --> 00:26:35,780
great. First one, what's the
most disappointing technology

495
00:26:36,020 --> 00:26:39,620
that you've ever used or been
gifted? You know, is a good

496
00:26:39,620 --> 00:26:41,920
question. You might have been
either excited about a song,

497
00:26:41,920 --> 00:26:44,380
gave you something like, oh, and
then usually like, well, this is

498
00:26:44,380 --> 00:26:47,740
crap. That's the first question.
Second thing, I'm quite

499
00:26:47,740 --> 00:26:50,140
interested you sound like
inventors to me, because you

500
00:26:50,140 --> 00:26:52,780
were talking about this thingy,
things, whatever it's called,

501
00:26:52,780 --> 00:26:58,480
and get Yeah, and GitHub, or
whatever. It sounds like you do

502
00:26:58,540 --> 00:27:02,340
stuff, yeah. Sounds like you do
stuff, and you do codes and

503
00:27:02,340 --> 00:27:06,480
things and load it and stuff,
and what have you made? Because

504
00:27:06,480 --> 00:27:09,960
I need to get in on this. I
don't I have no idea. So I'd

505
00:27:09,960 --> 00:27:12,660
like to know, what have you
done. And obviously I've got no

506
00:27:12,660 --> 00:27:15,660
answer for that second one, but
the first one, I do two good

507
00:27:15,660 --> 00:27:16,440
questions.

508
00:27:16,560 --> 00:27:20,600
Nick Hare: Well, you mainly
invented Cesaro Ecko. That was

509
00:27:20,600 --> 00:27:23,660
very cool, mainly cobbled
together from parts of other

510
00:27:23,660 --> 00:27:27,020
things, but there wasn't
anything that did that unplug

511
00:27:27,020 --> 00:27:29,240
Cicero's echo. I'm all ears.

512
00:27:30,080 --> 00:27:34,220
Peter Coghill: Yeah. So we so
Nick had an idea to have a

513
00:27:35,060 --> 00:27:41,140
active, dynamic and context
aware picture for a picture that

514
00:27:41,140 --> 00:27:45,940
responds to your board game
session. So you'd have an open

515
00:27:45,940 --> 00:27:48,400
you have an open mic that's
listening to the conversation,

516
00:27:48,400 --> 00:27:53,020
and it would this pick the
screen would render your an

517
00:27:53,020 --> 00:27:58,660
image that's in some way
representative or appropriate

518
00:27:58,660 --> 00:27:59,920
for for your

519
00:27:59,920 --> 00:28:02,160
Nick Hare: game all using off
the shelf pre training, yeah.

520
00:28:02,160 --> 00:28:05,940
Peter Coghill: So we So, so I
built this thing that captured

521
00:28:06,060 --> 00:28:11,220
audio, transcribed the audio,
sent it to an image generator

522
00:28:11,580 --> 00:28:15,720
with a bunch of prompts and and
gave you an image back. Yeah.

523
00:28:15,720 --> 00:28:17,880
And it was quite fun. It worked
really well.

524
00:28:19,020 --> 00:28:21,380
Nick Hare: What have you
invented? Well, I was, I've

525
00:28:21,380 --> 00:28:24,740
been, over the summer, I worked
on a, worked on a software

526
00:28:24,740 --> 00:28:28,580
framework called Falcon, which
is for training, specifically

527
00:28:28,580 --> 00:28:32,600
for training board game playing
AIs. And so it's, it's

528
00:28:32,600 --> 00:28:36,440
basically, instead of being in
the past, I've trained AIS to

529
00:28:36,440 --> 00:28:40,420
play specific board games,
right? So, you know, to just

530
00:28:40,420 --> 00:28:43,060
simple ones, your kind of
Noughts and Crosses and ultimate

531
00:28:43,060 --> 00:28:45,220
Noughts and Crosses, various
other things that I've trained

532
00:28:45,340 --> 00:28:48,700
and it, I always, always do it,
and I go, Oh, it's so annoying.

533
00:28:48,700 --> 00:28:50,920
I'm doing the same things that I
did last time. I'm going to

534
00:28:50,920 --> 00:28:53,560
build a software framework to do
it. So I've got loads of

535
00:28:53,560 --> 00:28:56,680
components right in this kind of
framework, and they kind of

536
00:28:56,680 --> 00:29:00,180
handle all the all the tedious
stuff. So basically, you code

537
00:29:00,180 --> 00:29:04,200
your code for the just for the
board game, and a few other

538
00:29:04,200 --> 00:29:07,260
things, and you put them in
there, and it then does all the

539
00:29:07,260 --> 00:29:09,960
training itself. It generates
the data, and it trains the new

540
00:29:09,960 --> 00:29:13,680
models and all that. Like with
nearly all my projects, it's not

541
00:29:13,680 --> 00:29:16,680
finished yet, but it's a lot
more advanced than I would have

542
00:29:16,680 --> 00:29:19,020
predicted. Are you saying you
created a trainer for your

543
00:29:19,020 --> 00:29:22,760
creative thing that is going to
that that can be that you can

544
00:29:22,760 --> 00:29:28,520
use to very easily create board
game. AI's right? So it's based

545
00:29:28,520 --> 00:29:31,640
on, it's based on kind of neural
network, which I

546
00:29:31,639 --> 00:29:33,679
Peter Coghill: just realised
that my answer was the invent,

547
00:29:33,679 --> 00:29:35,539
my invention that Nick was most
proud of.

548
00:29:36,379 --> 00:29:38,479
Fraser McGruer: Ah, okay, good.

549
00:29:39,740 --> 00:29:42,400
Peter Coghill: Another, recent
one. It's hardly an invention,

550
00:29:42,400 --> 00:29:46,900
really, but I was, I was pleased
with how quick it was to make.

551
00:29:47,200 --> 00:29:51,220
So I made a thing that simply
downloads a calendar from the

552
00:29:51,220 --> 00:29:55,180
UCI website that's in a weird
format and publishes it as a

553
00:29:55,180 --> 00:29:59,380
calendar. So really basic bit of
data manipulation it took me

554
00:29:59,560 --> 00:30:01,560
and. About 10 minutes to get

555
00:30:01,560 --> 00:30:03,360
Fraser McGruer: that working.
Well, so you invented a

556
00:30:03,360 --> 00:30:05,220
calendar. I didn't quite
understand.

557
00:30:05,280 --> 00:30:08,640
Peter Coghill: I meant it's
hardly an invention. It was just

558
00:30:08,640 --> 00:30:12,240
all I've done is republish
information from one website

559
00:30:12,240 --> 00:30:13,020
onto another, well,

560
00:30:13,080 --> 00:30:15,060
Nick Hare: in a useless form
into a useful

561
00:30:15,060 --> 00:30:16,980
Peter Coghill: Yeah, from a
useless form into a useful form.

562
00:30:16,980 --> 00:30:20,280
And it took all of the thing I'm
proud of is the fact that it

563
00:30:20,280 --> 00:30:21,560
took me 10 minutes to make

564
00:30:21,560 --> 00:30:25,940
Fraser McGruer: it, Okay, nice.
I've realised in in much the

565
00:30:25,940 --> 00:30:29,180
same way, that your might not be
an invention. I've got an

566
00:30:29,180 --> 00:30:32,300
invention that you might say
that's not invention, but I

567
00:30:32,300 --> 00:30:36,260
think it is, which is, as we get
older, all of us wear glasses,

568
00:30:36,320 --> 00:30:39,140
okay? And sometimes, as we get
older, we need, sort of, you

569
00:30:39,140 --> 00:30:41,300
know, our near vision. We get
sort of long sighted, right? And

570
00:30:41,300 --> 00:30:43,660
I don't want to look like some
old grand some old granny with

571
00:30:43,660 --> 00:30:45,880
sort of bifocals or very
focused, anything like that,

572
00:30:45,880 --> 00:30:49,120
even very focused, I think I'm
not keen on those. And also that

573
00:30:49,120 --> 00:30:51,940
costs stuff, right? So if you've
already got two pairs of

574
00:30:51,940 --> 00:30:53,140
glasses, and

575
00:30:54,220 --> 00:30:56,680
Unknown: Yeah, where's this
going?

576
00:30:56,740 --> 00:31:01,200
Fraser McGruer: And so you're
both sure you're both short

577
00:31:01,200 --> 00:31:06,000
sighted and long sighted. You
just put them both on, okay, at

578
00:31:06,000 --> 00:31:10,320
the same time, right? So there
you are watching TV, and you

579
00:31:10,320 --> 00:31:13,320
need, oh no, I'm short sighted.
I need my short sighted glasses

580
00:31:13,320 --> 00:31:13,980
to watch TV.

581
00:31:14,580 --> 00:31:17,160
Peter Coghill: Okay, I've got,
I've got an improvement for you.

582
00:31:17,160 --> 00:31:18,000
Well, this is

583
00:31:18,000 --> 00:31:19,500
Fraser McGruer: the thing, is
what we're talking about. So I

584
00:31:19,500 --> 00:31:22,100
have the big discovery, yeah.
And then you sort of

585
00:31:22,160 --> 00:31:25,700
incrementally, yeah, refine it,
yeah. But then just a one day,

586
00:31:25,700 --> 00:31:29,060
and I just started putting on my
these glasses for when I need to

587
00:31:29,060 --> 00:31:32,180
read stuff, but then I want to
sort of look down here and look

588
00:31:32,180 --> 00:31:35,180
up the TV down, pushing them
down onto your nose like that.

589
00:31:35,240 --> 00:31:38,840
No, no, no. But you wear both
glasses at the same time, okay,

590
00:31:38,900 --> 00:31:40,820
but the RE Why would you do
that? Right? Well, the reason

591
00:31:40,820 --> 00:31:43,360
why is because you don't want to
look stupid. Because you don't

592
00:31:43,360 --> 00:31:47,020
look stupid. You don't look like
some old person with very vocals

593
00:31:47,020 --> 00:31:50,620
and things like that, or have
the cost of getting an extra

594
00:31:50,620 --> 00:31:53,620
pair of glasses when you've
already got two. And if you want

595
00:31:53,680 --> 00:31:56,560
to go further, you could even
sort of time together with like

596
00:31:56,560 --> 00:31:59,800
an elastic band or something.
And I have actually spent more

597
00:31:59,800 --> 00:32:03,900
hours sitting down, as I have
just described, than you would

598
00:32:03,900 --> 00:32:07,020
imagine, two pairs of glasses
online. George, you want an

599
00:32:07,020 --> 00:32:09,900
improvement? Well, I'm open to
suggestion,

600
00:32:09,900 --> 00:32:12,420
Nick Hare: or, yeah, I think
you'll be annoyed if you try and

601
00:32:12,420 --> 00:32:14,040
improve it. Go on, put in with
it,

602
00:32:14,040 --> 00:32:16,800
Peter Coghill: pop out a lens
from each one, and have a long

603
00:32:16,800 --> 00:32:20,420
sighted lens and a short sighted
lens in one frame, and then just

604
00:32:20,420 --> 00:32:21,380
close one eye,

605
00:32:23,960 --> 00:32:24,980
Unknown: one long

606
00:32:24,980 --> 00:32:26,480
Peter Coghill: side, eye, one
short side. I

607
00:32:26,480 --> 00:32:29,060
Fraser McGruer: think you should
keep to see things and keep on

608
00:32:29,060 --> 00:32:32,660
uploading stuff that to that.
And I'll stick to keep with this

609
00:32:32,660 --> 00:32:33,080
stuff,

610
00:32:33,200 --> 00:32:36,020
Unknown: optics, advanced
optics, it's Fraser's area.

611
00:32:36,080 --> 00:32:37,580
Yeah, that's

612
00:32:37,580 --> 00:32:39,339
Fraser McGruer: all we've got
time for today. You've been

613
00:32:39,381 --> 00:32:41,827
listening to the cognitive
engineering podcast brought to

614
00:32:41,870 --> 00:32:44,315
you by Aleph Insights and
produced by me, Fraser McGruer,

615
00:32:44,358 --> 00:32:46,975
if you haven't already, please
like and subscribe. We try and

616
00:32:47,018 --> 00:32:49,721
release an episode every week or
two. If there are topics you'd

617
00:32:49,764 --> 00:32:52,467
like us to cover, please do get
in touch. You can find out more

618
00:32:52,510 --> 00:32:54,783
about Aleph Insights at
Alephinsights.com many thanks

619
00:32:54,826 --> 00:32:56,500
for listening until next time. Goodbye.