Hello and welcome to the eCommerce Podcast.
Matt Edmundson:My name is Matt Edmundson and it is great to be with you.
Matt Edmundson:And let me start by saying Happy New Year.
Matt Edmundson:Oh yes, it is that time of the year when we start again, isn't it?
Matt Edmundson:New Year's Resolution and Auld Lang Syne But before we start
Matt Edmundson:buying gym memberships, there's one essential thing we need to
Matt Edmundson:do for our e-commerce businesses.
Matt Edmundson:And that I think is a year end review.
Matt Edmundson:Now, that might sound a little bit boring, and you're like, Matt, gimme
Matt Edmundson:something more interesting, more exciting.
Matt Edmundson:But let me tell you, I'm gonna argue that I think it's essential.
Matt Edmundson:I'm gonna show you how it saved Lego and they're gonna go through
Matt Edmundson:the process to do it right?
Matt Edmundson:Because here's the thing, right?
Matt Edmundson:Here's what we've discovered, that
Matt Edmundson:companies that actually capture and apply lessons have a 27% higher success rate.
Matt Edmundson:27%!
Matt Edmundson:Now, if someone comes along to you and offers to increase your
Matt Edmundson:chances of success by 27%, I think.
Matt Edmundson:You a jumper, the chance, right?
Matt Edmundson:So that's what we're gonna do, right?
Matt Edmundson:We're gonna look at just that.
Matt Edmundson:So let me start by telling you about Lego.
Matt Edmundson:In 2003, Lego was on the brink of bankruptcy.
Matt Edmundson:Their sales had fallen by a massive 30%, and they had accumulated an eye
Matt Edmundson:watering staggering $800 million in debt.
Matt Edmundson:That's insane.
Matt Edmundson:And this was Lego, right?
Matt Edmundson:The company that created many of my childhood memories, a company that
Matt Edmundson:hadn't made a loss between 1932 and 1998, and suddenly everything
Matt Edmundson:was falling apart for them.
Matt Edmundson:Now, Jim Collins, who wrote the book, good to Great, and if you've
Matt Edmundson:not read it, definitely read it.
Matt Edmundson:He talks about this idea of.
Matt Edmundson:Confronting the brutal facts.
Matt Edmundson:That's what he calls it.
Matt Edmundson:Confront the brutal facts and how this is essential for a
Matt Edmundson:company's long-term success.
Matt Edmundson:He tells us that success requires the discipline to honestly
Matt Edmundson:acknowledge and address the harshest realities of your current situation.
Matt Edmundson:And we do that without denial.
Matt Edmundson:We do it without filtering, and we do it without excuses.
Matt Edmundson:And in this idea, Collins also introduces something called the Stockdale
Matt Edmundson:Paradox, and this is the idea that
Matt Edmundson:realism about your current situation has got to be paired with an unwavering faith
Matt Edmundson:that you will ultimately prevail in the end, regardless of the
Matt Edmundson:difficulties that you face.
Matt Edmundson:So confront the brutal facts, but maintain faith in the future.
Matt Edmundson:It's a really interesting tension, and that's exactly what Lego needed to do.
Matt Edmundson:So they did.
Matt Edmundson:And when leadership conducted a thorough review, they discovered
Matt Edmundson:that the company hadn't generated any economic profit for more than 10 years.
Matt Edmundson:How do you, 10 years.
Matt Edmundson:Right?
Matt Edmundson:And nobody knew.
Matt Edmundson:How did they not know that's.
Matt Edmundson:The big question, but they didn't.
Matt Edmundson:They did not know which products actually made money.
Matt Edmundson:They didn't know their customers anymore, and as one executive put it, he said that
Matt Edmundson:the culture was so closed off that massive opportunities were completely invisible.
Matt Edmundson:It's incredible, right?
Matt Edmundson:How long they went without realizing what was happening.
Matt Edmundson:And it was this review process mixed with brutal, honestly,
Matt Edmundson:honestly, mixed with brutal honesty.
Matt Edmundson:Uh, that would reveal what would in essence remain hidden.
Matt Edmundson:Maybe cause the company default or whatever.
Matt Edmundson:Now, I don't know if that sounds familiar, right?
Matt Edmundson:Not, maybe not the bankruptcy part, obviously, uh, but maybe that
Matt Edmundson:feeling of running so fast that you never stop to look at what's
Matt Edmundson:actually happening in your business.
Matt Edmundson:And you have that sense that you might be missing something important,
Matt Edmundson:but you're not quite sure what.
Matt Edmundson:And the truth is that you don't know what you don't know until you look.
Matt Edmundson:I mean, that's blinding logic, isn't it?
Matt Edmundson:It's true though, isn't it?
Matt Edmundson:Uh, blinding revelation of the new year.
Matt Edmundson:You don't know what you don't know until you have a look.
Matt Edmundson:You have got to confront the brutal facts, whether they're
Matt Edmundson:good or whether they're bad.
Matt Edmundson:But you've gotta do so with this spirit of faith and humility.
Matt Edmundson:I think that the future can.
Matt Edmundson:And we'll be different.
Matt Edmundson:So how do we do just that?
Matt Edmundson:Hopefully that's convinced you.
Matt Edmundson:This is a good idea.
Matt Edmundson:Now, most Ecommerces I work with do one or two things at the end of the year
Matt Edmundson:if they actually do a review at all.
Matt Edmundson:Right?
Matt Edmundson:Option one is they, they, they're actually don't do the review.
Matt Edmundson:They're just too busy.
Matt Edmundson:They're too tired.
Matt Edmundson:January arrives and they're already firefighting.
Matt Edmundson:The next thing, and if you guys are anything like me, you have
Matt Edmundson:definitely been there, right?
Matt Edmundson:Option B. Is perhaps the preferred option.
Matt Edmundson:There's a glance, um, at revenue and we celebrate it.
Matt Edmundson:If we went up, we panic if it goes down and we call it done.
Matt Edmundson:But neither approach really tells us anything useful.
Matt Edmundson:It's not so much confronting the brutal facts as giving
Matt Edmundson:them perhaps a cursory glance.
Matt Edmundson:And for the record, ladies and gentlemen, uh, being totally
Matt Edmundson:transparent with you, I have done.
Matt Edmundson:Both.
Matt Edmundson:Now.
Matt Edmundson:There were years when I actually convinced myself that reviewing was
Matt Edmundson:a luxury that I couldn't afford.
Matt Edmundson:I didn't have time, which was ironic obviously, because the
Matt Edmundson:review would've shown me exactly where I was wasting time and money.
Matt Edmundson:But let's not go there.
Matt Edmundson:Uh, but there, I think the other thing that I've noticed is, for me, right
Matt Edmundson:there is a much more subtle trap that can catch me out almost every time recently.
Matt Edmundson:And that's when the facts aren't actually brutal.
Matt Edmundson:Um, it's when the facts are actually really good, right?
Matt Edmundson:Like you, you know, you've ended the year up on just about every
Matt Edmundson:single metric and you fall into something that I call the genius trap.
Matt Edmundson:Now the genius trap, in essence, looks at the numbers to prove how much of
Matt Edmundson:a genius you were that year, right?
Matt Edmundson:I'm such a genius because I had a good year.
Matt Edmundson:Um.
Matt Edmundson:And it's dangerous and it's 'cause it's easy to find.
Matt Edmundson:Let me tell you, it's easy to find data that proves what
Matt Edmundson:a genius you actually are.
Matt Edmundson:Um, you can cherry pick the wins.
Matt Edmundson:You explain away the losses.
Matt Edmundson:You build a narrative that makes you feel good,
Matt Edmundson:but genuinely it doesn't really teach you anything.
Matt Edmundson:And I've done that.
Matt Edmundson:I've been caught out many times by the genius trap.
Matt Edmundson:And so I think there's, you need.
Matt Edmundson:You need that humility when approaching this as well.
Matt Edmundson:You need the confidence to confront the brutal facts, but
Matt Edmundson:you also need to approach them with humility and the 'cause.
Matt Edmundson:The goal, right?
Matt Edmundson:The goal of the review isn't to prove you are a genius.
Matt Edmundson:It isn't to prove that you are right.
Matt Edmundson:The goal is always to understand what worked, what didn't work, and as a
Matt Edmundson:result of that, where do we focus next?
Matt Edmundson:What's gonna have the biggest bang for our buck?
Matt Edmundson:And here's how I think about it, right?
Matt Edmundson:This may or may not help you.
Matt Edmundson:I don't know if you have a board, but I've got a board at my
Matt Edmundson:company, um, and I have to present findings to the board of directors.
Matt Edmundson:If you don't have one, pretend that you do.
Matt Edmundson:And if you, if you use ai, create an AI board of directors.
Matt Edmundson:Um, I've talked about that before in the show.
Matt Edmundson:Really clever idea right now.
Matt Edmundson:Think about presenting to a board.
Matt Edmundson:What would you proudly share?
Matt Edmundson:What do, can you not wait to tell them?
Matt Edmundson:Right?
Matt Edmundson:But more importantly, what would you rather not mention?
Matt Edmundson:Because it's in that second list, the stuff that you'd rather not talk about.
Matt Edmundson:I think that's where the real insights live for us.
Matt Edmundson:So let me walk you through the framework that we use.
Matt Edmundson:Uh, if you are a friend of the show, if you've been here a while, you
Matt Edmundson:will have heard me talk a little bit about the Slingshot framework.
Matt Edmundson:We're gonna be doing a whole lot more on this, um, in the coming year.
Matt Edmundson:Let me tell you.
Matt Edmundson:Uh, it's a framework that we use, uh.
Matt Edmundson:Because let me tell you, years after selling building for many years,
Matt Edmundson:e-commerce businesses, I've found this framework works super well.
Matt Edmundson:And actually it works really well with reviews 'cause it gives it the
Matt Edmundson:structure that we need and without it.
Matt Edmundson:Um, I think you can get lost in the weeds because there's so much to think
Matt Edmundson:about when it comes to e-commerce.
Matt Edmundson:Um, and so we either get lost in the weeds or we stay so high level that
Matt Edmundson:actually it's, it's not very helpful.
Matt Edmundson:And so we use this framework, the Slingshot Framework, and it breaks
Matt Edmundson:businesses down into seven in Connect in.
Matt Edmundson:Connected.
Matt Edmundson:That's not the right word.
Matt Edmundson:Interconnected, that's the right word.
Matt Edmundson:It's the new year.
Matt Edmundson:You're gonna have to forgive me guys.
Matt Edmundson:Now the Slingshot framework breaks then business down into
Matt Edmundson:these seven interconnected areas.
Matt Edmundson:And for each one, we're gonna ask questions about what worked, what didn't
Matt Edmundson:work, and obviously what we can learn.
Matt Edmundson:So I'm gonna run through these seven areas quickly.
Matt Edmundson:Um.
Matt Edmundson:Just so you get a brief overview of the, of the framework, uh,
Matt Edmundson:number one, we call it sell,
Matt Edmundson:right?
Matt Edmundson:Area number one.
Matt Edmundson:So what are your products?
Matt Edmundson:Fundamentally for any e-commerce business?
Matt Edmundson:You've gotta have a product that people want to buy, right?
Matt Edmundson:Are you curating high demand products that actually generate profit,
Matt Edmundson:not revenue, but profit, and which products are your real winners?
Matt Edmundson:And which are quietly draining your resources.
Matt Edmundson:And this is where I think many of us get surprised because sometimes the product
Matt Edmundson:we're most proud of isn't actually the one that's making us the money.
Matt Edmundson:So we've got to audit our products, we've got to do a review of our products.
Matt Edmundson:Okay, so the first area of the framework is product.
Matt Edmundson:The second area is story.
Matt Edmundson:So I've got a product I wanna sell.
Matt Edmundson:Now I've got to connect my brand and my story with the
Matt Edmundson:customer's brand and story, right?
Matt Edmundson:So this is all about your brand and customer understanding.
Matt Edmundson:Like, do you truly understand who you are serving?
Matt Edmundson:Is your messaging really landing?
Matt Edmundson:You know, um, and for me in this framework.
Matt Edmundson:I like to operate in this overlap, uh, between our story and the customer's
Matt Edmundson:story where I can find that commonality.
Matt Edmundson:Uh, between my brand, my story, what I want to do, and the customer story, what
Matt Edmundson:they want, what they want to do, that's where magic happens, let me tell you.
Matt Edmundson:And it's in that overlap that it works.
Matt Edmundson:And if you're not in that overlap, I think.
Matt Edmundson:Your messaging tends to fall quite flat.
Matt Edmundson:Okay?
Matt Edmundson:So we need to look at our story segment.
Matt Edmundson:Um, not just our brands, not just our colors, but our story, what the customer
Matt Edmundson:story is, what our customers want, what their hopes, dreams, and desires are.
Matt Edmundson:And let's see where those two things overlap and see how
Matt Edmundson:we can get that to connect.
Matt Edmundson:So area one is our product.
Matt Edmundson:Area two is our story.
Matt Edmundson:So we've got a product to sell and we've got a brand messaging,
Matt Edmundson:uh, idea in which to wrap that up.
Matt Edmundson:Now we need to work on the technology.
Matt Edmundson:So
Matt Edmundson:area three is all about the tech stack.
Matt Edmundson:Um, this is all about how we sell this to our customers.
Matt Edmundson:Is your technology helping or hindering are your systems integrated or is data
Matt Edmundson:fragmented across multiple flat platforms that don't really talk to each other?
Matt Edmundson:They're all building on each other.
Matt Edmundson:This is where we've got all those subscriptions that we don't really
Matt Edmundson:need, but we bought because we thought we needed them at the time.
Matt Edmundson:You know, it's all of that stuff.
Matt Edmundson:How is our tech stack doing?
Matt Edmundson:The tech that we use to sell our products and tell our story to our customers,
Matt Edmundson:which leads me nicely to area number four.
Matt Edmundson:So I've got the product, I've got our story sorted out.
Matt Edmundson:We have got the technology sorted out.
Matt Edmundson:Now
Matt Edmundson:we need to think about the area that everybody loves to talk about,
Matt Edmundson:which is marketing.
Matt Edmundson:And this is all about getting the customers to come to your tech
Matt Edmundson:stack to buy your products, right?
Matt Edmundson:So which channels are actually delivering?
Matt Edmundson:And here's the scary question.
Matt Edmundson:If your main marketing channel disappeared tomorrow, would your business survive?
Matt Edmundson:That's a great question.
Matt Edmundson:We've all fallen a fail of this in some way or other, I'm sure if you've
Matt Edmundson:been in e-commerce for a while, right?
Matt Edmundson:I'm, uh, if meta changed its algorithm, for example, which let's
Matt Edmundson:be honest, happens all of the dang time and your ad stop working,
Matt Edmundson:uh, ring the iOS 14 update bell.
Matt Edmundson:Um, what would actually happen?
Matt Edmundson:Right.
Matt Edmundson:And that question, I think has, has kept many of us up at night,
Matt Edmundson:uh, as, as well it should.
Matt Edmundson:Um, area number five, we talk about optimizations.
Matt Edmundson:Now we've got people who have come to our technology stack to buy our products.
Matt Edmundson:We've got the brand story sorted out.
Matt Edmundson:Now we need to optimize the site, which is all about conversion.
Matt Edmundson:So once the visitors are there, are they actually buying?
Matt Edmundson:Where's the friction?
Matt Edmundson:Um.
Matt Edmundson:When did you Right last?
Matt Edmundson:Watch a real customer.
Matt Edmundson:Try and buy something from your website.
Matt Edmundson:Not look at the analytics, but actually watch someone trying to use
Matt Edmundson:your site and trying to buy from you.
Matt Edmundson:It is so eyeopening, right?
Matt Edmundson:Uh, area number six, we call experience.
Matt Edmundson:So this is all about the post-purchase journey.
Matt Edmundson:So they've come to your site, they've bought the product, we've converted them.
Matt Edmundson:Now we need to think about what happens from that point onwards.
Matt Edmundson:And this is area six in the framework.
Matt Edmundson:What happens after somebody buys?
Matt Edmundson:Is that journey building loyalty or are you losing customers
Matt Edmundson:before they even come back?
Matt Edmundson:This is one of the most overlooked areas in e-commerce because I think
Matt Edmundson:everybody obsesses about marketing.
Matt Edmundson:It is the golden child in this framework.
Matt Edmundson:Everyone loves it.
Matt Edmundson:Even in our clients, this is where we spend most of the time.
Matt Edmundson:Um.
Matt Edmundson:And it's good and it's good to do that.
Matt Edmundson:But don't forget this, right?
Matt Edmundson:Um, because you don't wanna drop the ball here.
Matt Edmundson:This is where I think your business really just sink or swim.
Matt Edmundson:Area number seven of the framework is growth.
Matt Edmundson:Okay, so are you building flywheel?
Matt Edmundson:Momentum is the question.
Matt Edmundson:There are three levers.
Matt Edmundson:Levers.
Matt Edmundson:Why did I say levers?
Matt Edmundson:'cause I've got an American voice in my head.
Matt Edmundson:There are three le, three levers of growth, um, and only three I think
Matt Edmundson:when it comes to growing a business.
Matt Edmundson:Three levers that you can pull, right?
Matt Edmundson:Number one is the number of customers that you have.
Matt Edmundson:If I pull that lever, I get more customers.
Matt Edmundson:Number two, I can convince the customers I have to buy more product
Matt Edmundson:from me, which in effect in e-commerce, we call the average order value.
Matt Edmundson:So how do I get them to buy more when they're there?
Matt Edmundson:And the third lever that we can pull is all to do with average order frequency.
Matt Edmundson:Average order count, as I've heard it called this, is basically how many
Matt Edmundson:times a customer comes back to buy from you and how frequently they do that.
Matt Edmundson:Okay, so if I want to grow my business, I have to pull on one of those three levers.
Matt Edmundson:Okay?
Matt Edmundson:I've either got to get more customers, I've either got to get the customers,
Matt Edmundson:I've got to increase their average order value, or I've gotta get the
Matt Edmundson:customers I've got to, in effect, increase the frequency with which they.
Matt Edmundson:Buy.
Matt Edmundson:If I pull on any one of those levers, I will grow my business.
Matt Edmundson:Here's a really bonkers thing, right?
Matt Edmundson:If I grow, say, new customers by 10%, I grow my business by 10%.
Matt Edmundson:If I increase average or value by 10%, I. Increase my business
Matt Edmundson:by 10%, you get where I'm going.
Matt Edmundson:If I increase average order count by 10%, I increase my business by 10%, right?
Matt Edmundson:The maths works.
Matt Edmundson:If I increase all three at the same time, due to the wonderful, uh, mathematical
Matt Edmundson:function of geometrical progression, I actually grow my business by 33%.
Matt Edmundson:Um, and so you start to get geometric growth when you focus on
Matt Edmundson:all three areas at the same time.
Matt Edmundson:So they are in effect, the three areas of growth, uh, in the grow area Now.
Matt Edmundson:That's our sort of seven step framework that we use.
Matt Edmundson:We call it slingshot.
Matt Edmundson:Like I say, we're gonna get into it in much more detail over the year.
Matt Edmundson:We're gonna really focus in on what that looks like for your business, and
Matt Edmundson:I'm hoping, actually, we're gonna put a load of content on the site about it.
Matt Edmundson:That's the plan.
Matt Edmundson:We'll see if we get there now.
Matt Edmundson:Each area right?
Matt Edmundson:Deserves honest scrutiny.
Matt Edmundson:So no matter how brutal the facts, not just how did we do, but what did we learn?
Matt Edmundson:What didn't work?
Matt Edmundson:What are we gonna do differently?
Matt Edmundson:Okay.
Matt Edmundson:And of course, as you would expect this being, uh, an episode on the eCommerce
Matt Edmundson:Podcast where it's just me, I love to give the freebies to help you do
Matt Edmundson:this well, um, which I'm gonna explain more about in just a few minutes.
Matt Edmundson:So there is a freebie that's gonna help you.
Matt Edmundson:Walk through this with questions and, and help you track the ideas and the numbers.
Matt Edmundson:Okay.
Matt Edmundson:So I'll explain like, say more about that in a minute.
Matt Edmundson:Before I do though, let me just take a minute to talk about the
Matt Edmundson:numbers that I think you should track so we understand the framework.
Matt Edmundson:There's these sort of seven areas that we need to look at.
Matt Edmundson:Okay?
Matt Edmundson:Um.
Matt Edmundson:Let's look at the data, but before we get too much into the data, let me, let
Matt Edmundson:me preface this by saying that I have found something really helpful when it
Matt Edmundson:comes to data and looking at reviews, um, and the, and the results and, and.
Matt Edmundson:Yeah, it's, this is a really smart thing.
Matt Edmundson:Okay.
Matt Edmundson:And it's, I, I call it lead and lag measures.
Matt Edmundson:I don't call it that, it's just what I picked up.
Matt Edmundson:Um, I read the book, uh, four DX, the Four Disciplines of Execution, which actually
Matt Edmundson:came out of the Franklin Covey, um, setup.
Matt Edmundson:They wrote the books like The Seven Habits of Highly Effective
Matt Edmundson:People and stuff like that.
Matt Edmundson:Really interesting management consulting company.
Matt Edmundson:And they defined lead and lag measures.
Matt Edmundson:So before we jump into the numbers, let me give you this.
Matt Edmundson:Understanding around lead and lag measures, which I think is
Matt Edmundson:gonna really, really help you.
Matt Edmundson:Okay?
Matt Edmundson:Now, everything, uh, you measure in a typical review.
Matt Edmundson:So as you're going through these seven areas, as you're walking through,
Matt Edmundson:walking, working through the freebie.
Matt Edmundson:You're putting numbers out there, hold intention, right?
Matt Edmundson:That probably just about everything you are seeing in the review is
Matt Edmundson:what is called a lag measure.
Matt Edmundson:Okay?
Matt Edmundson:So things like revenue, profit margin, conversion rates, customer count.
Matt Edmundson:These are in effect lag measures.
Matt Edmundson:They are all results.
Matt Edmundson:So what I mean by a lag measure is this, by the time you measure
Matt Edmundson:them, by the time you get that number, they are already fixed.
Matt Edmundson:You can't change last year's revenue anymore than you can unring a bell, okay?
Matt Edmundson:It is what it is.
Matt Edmundson:And I mean, you can get fancy accountants, don't get me wrong,
Matt Edmundson:but you can't go back and change it.
Matt Edmundson:So lag measures tell you what happened.
Matt Edmundson:They in effect help you keep the score, but they don't necessarily
Matt Edmundson:tell you how to play better.
Matt Edmundson:The work that actually matters happens, I think in lead measures.
Matt Edmundson:So this is measuring specific activities that control and
Matt Edmundson:influence those lag measures.
Matt Edmundson:Okay.
Matt Edmundson:Stay with me.
Matt Edmundson:Um, so given that this is the new year, lemme give you some example, right?
Matt Edmundson:So the time of recording, it's New Year's Day.
Matt Edmundson:Um, so happy New Year, right?
Matt Edmundson:Uh, time of recording.
Matt Edmundson:Definitely not the time of recording.
Matt Edmundson:The time that this episode comes out is New Year Day.
Matt Edmundson:Uh, I'm not recording it and posting it on the same day, just total transparency.
Matt Edmundson:Anyway.
Matt Edmundson:Uh, it's New Year's, right?
Matt Edmundson:So we're all obsessed with weight loss, aren't we?
Matt Edmundson:In the new year?
Matt Edmundson:Um, and right now, probably most of us can do with losing a few pounds.
Matt Edmundson:Okay?
Matt Edmundson:So weight is a lag measure.
Matt Edmundson:It's a number that is based on decisions that I made last year.
Matt Edmundson:Okay.
Matt Edmundson:It's decisions that I made in the past.
Matt Edmundson:I made decisions to eat.
Matt Edmundson:I made decisions about exercise, and as a result, my weight is a lag measure.
Matt Edmundson:It tells me the net result of those past decisions.
Matt Edmundson:It tells me the score.
Matt Edmundson:Okay?
Matt Edmundson:If you like football and managers, it tells you the score.
Matt Edmundson:But if I want to change my weight, um, if I want to lower
Matt Edmundson:it, I can't just measure that.
Matt Edmundson:I can, but it's not totally helpful.
Matt Edmundson:Right.
Matt Edmundson:What I actually need to measure are the lead measures.
Matt Edmundson:So what are the lead measures when it comes to weight loss?
Matt Edmundson:Well, the obvious ones are gonna be, um, how many calories I eat and how
Matt Edmundson:many minutes I spend doing exercise.
Matt Edmundson:Right?
Matt Edmundson:They are two lead measures that if I focus on, if daily I measure how many
Matt Edmundson:calories I eat and how many minutes I spend exercising, then I know.
Matt Edmundson:That will have a direct impact on my weight.
Matt Edmundson:Okay?
Matt Edmundson:So my weight will come down unless I'm trying to bulk up to get, you know, big
Matt Edmundson:like Arnie, uh, which I'm not, by the way.
Matt Edmundson:Um, so hopefully you're getting the, the difference between a
Matt Edmundson:lead measure and a lag measure.
Matt Edmundson:Okay?
Matt Edmundson:So, um.
Matt Edmundson:And, and this is important, we're gonna get to this in a second, right?
Matt Edmundson:So for example, sales revenue, let's go through this in a bit more detail.
Matt Edmundson:Sales revenue then is a lag measure.
Matt Edmundson:So your sales number are, um.
Matt Edmundson:A number which tells you the results of what you have already done right?
Matt Edmundson:And it's a good number to know, but you have to think
Matt Edmundson:about when it comes to sales.
Matt Edmundson:So if you want to increase sales next year, as well as measuring that number,
Matt Edmundson:you have to understand what the lead measures are that help that grow,
Matt Edmundson:and then measure those relentlessly.
Matt Edmundson:Okay.
Matt Edmundson:Uh, conversion rate, for example, would also be another one.
Matt Edmundson:How do we improve conversion rates?
Matt Edmundson:So a lead measure that affects it might be something, I don't know, like AB tests
Matt Edmundson:every month and implementing the winners.
Matt Edmundson:Okay.
Matt Edmundson:Or did we increase?
Matt Edmundson:Customer lifetime value.
Matt Edmundson:So customer lifetime value is a lag measure.
Matt Edmundson:So a lead measure for that is did we add and test new email sequences each month
Matt Edmundson:for educated customers on product use?
Matt Edmundson:For example, going back to my friend George Byron.
Matt Edmundson:And so the principle, uh, is to understand the key lead measures that drive and
Matt Edmundson:effect the lag measure, and how often these emerge through testing ideas.
Matt Edmundson:Because there's no real one size fits all.
Matt Edmundson:I can't say to you, right, for you to increase sales.
Matt Edmundson:Revenue, these are the lead measures for you because there is no one size fits all.
Matt Edmundson:I'm really sorry there isn't.
Matt Edmundson:Um, and what works for you might not work as well for somebody else.
Matt Edmundson:We've all seen this, right?
Matt Edmundson:You've all heard things on this show.
Matt Edmundson:You've all seen things on YouTube where somebody comes
Matt Edmundson:on and said, man, I did this.
Matt Edmundson:And I went from zero to a million in like a microsecond.
Matt Edmundson:It was amazing.
Matt Edmundson:You do the same thing and you're down 10 grand already, right?
Matt Edmundson:Um.
Matt Edmundson:So you have to find those lead measures for you.
Matt Edmundson:And the only way to really do that is to test.
Matt Edmundson:So when you are doing your review, you are looking at, excuse me, you are looking at
Matt Edmundson:the lag measures and that's fine 'cause you need to know where you ended up.
Matt Edmundson:Right?
Matt Edmundson:But when you are thinking about what we can learn from this and
Matt Edmundson:what's driving this, when you set your goals for the coming year.
Matt Edmundson:Don't just set a sales revenue goal, we wanna increase sales revenue by 20%.
Matt Edmundson:'cause you're thinking in terms of lag measures, think in terms of lead measures.
Matt Edmundson:Like what are the key levers that pull sales revenue?
Matt Edmundson:I've already mentioned the three levers by the way.
Matt Edmundson:Uh, but what are those levers that increase sales revenue and let me focus
Matt Edmundson:relentlessly on those every month.
Matt Edmundson:'cause by doing that, I know my revenue will increase.
Matt Edmundson:Okay.
Matt Edmundson:So what that will tell you then is what activities, what specific
Matt Edmundson:activities that you can commit to that will drive the results that you want.
Matt Edmundson:Okay.
Matt Edmundson:So I, the reason I'm telling you this is the amount of times
Matt Edmundson:I've come to people and they say I want increase revenue by 20%.
Matt Edmundson:Um, and that's all they're measuring is revenue.
Matt Edmundson:And I think you have to understand lead measures and lag measures and
Matt Edmundson:measure the impact, uh, of those things.
Matt Edmundson:So.
Matt Edmundson:All that said, I hope you're still with me.
Matt Edmundson:The purpose of the review is to understand your lag measures and
Matt Edmundson:to get an idea of the lead measures going forward into the next year.
Matt Edmundson:So let me quickly run through the numbers that I think are worth
Matt Edmundson:tracking as lag measures if you're gonna do the review properly.
Matt Edmundson:Okay.
Matt Edmundson:Um, I think you need to track several different metrics.
Matt Edmundson:And again, these are all in the freebie.
Matt Edmundson:Okay.
Matt Edmundson:So for financial health, you're gonna be looking at gross profit margin.
Matt Edmundson:Uh, and
Matt Edmundson:a healthy gross profit margin in e-commerce is about 50 to 70%.
Matt Edmundson:you're gonna be looking at net profit margin.
Matt Edmundson:You want about 10 to 20%.
Matt Edmundson:that work working capital ratio, you're gonna aim for about one and a half to two.
Matt Edmundson:Now, let me explain Working capital ratio, because it's not
Matt Edmundson:immediately obvious what it is.
Matt Edmundson:It might not even be something that you have heard of, but it is a
Matt Edmundson:useful health measure nonetheless.
Matt Edmundson:Okay?
Matt Edmundson:And what you do is you calculate this by dividing your current assets.
Matt Edmundson:By your current liabilities.
Matt Edmundson:Okay?
Matt Edmundson:And I don't wanna get too accountant, too mathematical.
Matt Edmundson:You do need to get your head around some of these numbers though.
Matt Edmundson:Okay?
Matt Edmundson:So let me define current assets.
Matt Edmundson:Um, in a way that's hopefully gonna simplify it and just keep it really easy.
Matt Edmundson:A current asset is the sum of everything that can be
Matt Edmundson:converted to cash within a year.
Matt Edmundson:Okay?
Matt Edmundson:So that's your current assets.
Matt Edmundson:Everything that can be converted to cash within a year.
Matt Edmundson:So that's obviously gonna include cash in the bank.
Matt Edmundson:Um, but it's gonna include accounts receivable, like maybe
Matt Edmundson:strip owes you a bit of money.
Matt Edmundson:Um, inventory that sells quickly.
Matt Edmundson:Um, short term investments, things like that.
Matt Edmundson:What can I convert into cash in the next 12 months?
Matt Edmundson:That's my current assets.
Matt Edmundson:Current liabilities.
Matt Edmundson:Then follow a similar definition.
Matt Edmundson:These are all the debts which I have to pay within the next year.
Matt Edmundson:Okay, so what do I owe my suppliers?
Matt Edmundson:Like short term loans, unpaid taxes, invoices, not paid accrued expenses.
Matt Edmundson:These are all debts that I have to pay in the next 12 months.
Matt Edmundson:So if you've got, for example, a hundred grand in current assets and
Matt Edmundson:50 grand in liabilities, then if I take the a hundred divided by the 50.
Matt Edmundson:Your ratio then is two, and that's healthy, and you are aiming for
Matt Edmundson:somewhere between 1.5 and two.
Matt Edmundson:It's generally known as the sweet spot because you've got more
Matt Edmundson:than enough assets to cover your debts with a comfortable buffer.
Matt Edmundson:So if it's below one, if that ratio is below one, what that tells you is
Matt Edmundson:you've got negative working capital.
Matt Edmundson:In other words, you've got more short-term debt than you've got assets to pay for
Matt Edmundson:that, which is not, I mean, it's not the end of the world, but obviously that's
Matt Edmundson:something you need to be aware of.
Matt Edmundson:Conversely, if it's over two, um, are you being too conservative?
Matt Edmundson:You might not actually be using your capital efficiently.
Matt Edmundson:Now, I do want to caveat that statement by saying this completely
Matt Edmundson:depends on your business model.
Matt Edmundson:Like, if I'm honest, my working capital ratio is quite a bit above two because of
Matt Edmundson:my personal convictions about debt, which not everybody has, and I, I'm not gonna.
Matt Edmundson:Try and convert everybody to my way of thinking about debt.
Matt Edmundson:Um, and when, but when I'm acquiring companies, when I'm partnering
Matt Edmundson:with companies, when we're going through that whole process, I look
Matt Edmundson:at that working capital ratio and I'm looking at that number there.
Matt Edmundson:Okay?
Matt Edmundson:So depending on your current business model is gonna depend on where that is.
Matt Edmundson:So go have a look at that ratio.
Matt Edmundson:Now the customer metrics that I think you absolutely should track are
Matt Edmundson:gonna be your customer acquisition cost, also known as cac, which if
Matt Edmundson:you're British, is slightly funny.
Matt Edmundson:Um, what does it cost to get a customer?
Matt Edmundson:How much do you pay to get a customer?
Matt Edmundson:What's your customer lifetime value?
Matt Edmundson:That's really important.
Matt Edmundson:What's your customer worth over time?
Matt Edmundson:Now, um, if you've been around for a while, you'll have heard
Matt Edmundson:Oliver Spark on the show.
Matt Edmundson:He talked about.
Matt Edmundson:This customer lifetime value.
Matt Edmundson:And I, I know that over the years of knowing Oliver, um, and he runs Suite
Matt Edmundson:Analytics, which is an analytics platform for e-commerce, which I'm quite, I'm
Matt Edmundson:quite, uh, quite, I enjoy Suite actually.
Matt Edmundson:I think it's a good platform.
Matt Edmundson:A shout out to Oliver and what those guys are doing.
Matt Edmundson:Um.
Matt Edmundson:When you measure customer lifetime value, one of the questions
Matt Edmundson:comes in your head was how?
Matt Edmundson:Over how long?
Matt Edmundson:Right?
Matt Edmundson:Because it says customer lifetime value.
Matt Edmundson:So how do you define the length of a customer lifetime?
Matt Edmundson:And again, I think that comes down to your business model.
Matt Edmundson:Like if you sell couches, then your lifetime value of a customer
Matt Edmundson:might be over 20 years, right?
Matt Edmundson:Because how often do we buy a couch?
Matt Edmundson:I'm in the supplement game, I'm in the gift game.
Matt Edmundson:I'm in a few different games, but most of which are quite short, repeatable,
Matt Edmundson:so I measure over a 12 month period.
Matt Edmundson:Um, and so customer lifetime value for most companies, most of the
Matt Edmundson:time you're gonna wanna measure that over 12 months, possibly 24 months.
Matt Edmundson:Um, but majority gonna be 12, right?
Matt Edmundson:But whatever the period of time you choose, make sure you use
Matt Edmundson:that consistently when calculating customer lifetime value.
Matt Edmundson:Once you understand your lifetime value and you understand the cac, the customer
Matt Edmundson:acquisition costs, you can create then a ratio, so your LTV to CAC ratio.
Matt Edmundson:Um, and you are wanting somewhere around three to one.
Matt Edmundson:In other words, you want a lifetime value of a customer about three times more
Matt Edmundson:or better than the cost to acquire one.
Matt Edmundson:Okay?
Matt Edmundson:And again, this is, there's no hard and fast rules here.
Matt Edmundson:It all depends on your business model.
Matt Edmundson:But if your CAC is too high and your LTV is too low, you've got
Matt Edmundson:no profits to run your business.
Matt Edmundson:So less than three to one, it becomes really hard to sustain.
Matt Edmundson:Um, over three to one, it might tell you that you've probably got a bit of margin
Matt Edmundson:to put into new customer acquisition.
Matt Edmundson:Um, so if you have a five to one ratio, you might wanna look at actually,
Matt Edmundson:does that give us a bit more play to increase our customer acquisition costs?
Matt Edmundson:If it means we get substantially more new customers?
Matt Edmundson:Always worth thinking about because new customer acquisition
Matt Edmundson:is obviously, is, is important.
Matt Edmundson:So you've got your lifetime value.
Matt Edmundson:Customer acquisition costs, average order value.
Matt Edmundson:Uh, it's one of the three levers of growth we mentioned.
Matt Edmundson:Gonna wanna look at that.
Matt Edmundson:Um, conversion rates.
Matt Edmundson:Uh, an average conversion rate in e-commerce, by the way, is two to 3%.
Matt Edmundson:I dunno what it is for your industry.
Matt Edmundson:Um, you can obviously find that out.
Matt Edmundson:Just, you know, ask I, it will tell you these.
Matt Edmundson:In fact, don't ask ai 'cause it might just make it up.
Matt Edmundson:Do the work yourself and find out using Google, um, or perplexity
Matt Edmundson:actually might help you there.
Matt Edmundson:Um, but understand your conversion rate and benchmark that you also want to
Matt Edmundson:understand your repeat purchase rate.
Matt Edmundson:So how many times customers come back, the percentage of customers that come
Matt Edmundson:back, um, is really, really helpful.
Matt Edmundson:Um, that's a really good number to measure.
Matt Edmundson:Um, and these aren't atory metrics, by the way.
Matt Edmundson:I think they're vital signs for the health of your business.
Matt Edmundson:And if you don't know these numbers.
Matt Edmundson:Um, I think whatever review you do is gonna be sort of guesswork
Matt Edmundson:and dressed up really as analysis.
Matt Edmundson:So before you deep dive into the seven areas and, and go through the, the
Matt Edmundson:freebie, the download or however you wanna do it, but if you go through the
Matt Edmundson:download and ask or answer the questions that we ask you in that download, in
Matt Edmundson:that workbook, the workbook starts off with the spaces to put those numbers.
Matt Edmundson:Okay?
Matt Edmundson:So spend the time you need to get them together before you start.
Matt Edmundson:Um, and.
Matt Edmundson:Regularly track them.
Matt Edmundson:Okay?
Matt Edmundson:At least, at least every year.
Matt Edmundson:You know, if you put those numbers in now at the end of the year, you can
Matt Edmundson:see where they are and you can see what's worked again, what's not worked.
Matt Edmundson:You know, with a year on year comparison, I think it's quite helpful.
Matt Edmundson:So have a look at that.
Matt Edmundson:Now, let me finish, uh, with the Lego story because I think it's important, uh,
Matt Edmundson:just to round that or close that circle.
Matt Edmundson:I think they say, uh, after that sort of brutal 2023, no, 20 2003,
Matt Edmundson:not 2023, get the numbers right.
Matt Edmundson:Matt, uh, after that sort of brutal confronting the brutal facts in 2003,
Matt Edmundson:that review, Lego didn't just identify problems, they actually acted on them.
Matt Edmundson:Uh, we can see the results now, right?
Matt Edmundson:I mean, they're an insanely, uh, popular brand.
Matt Edmundson:They discovered, in effect, the adult customers, the ones who they assumed
Matt Edmundson:were detracting from the brand.
Matt Edmundson:Can you believe that were actually a massive opportunity.
Matt Edmundson:They streamline their product range.
Matt Edmundson:They rebuilt their understanding of who their customers were.
Matt Edmundson:And the net result of all of this, lemme give you some numbers.
Matt Edmundson:Nearly 20% compound growth.
Matt Edmundson:Over two decades.
Matt Edmundson:Oh, that's insane, isn't it?
Matt Edmundson:Love, I would love those numbers.
Matt Edmundson:Uh, in 2017, they even created an internal document, which was literally called
Matt Edmundson:Blind Spot to remind leadership about the opportunity that they had missed, and then
Matt Edmundson:by 2020 they'd launched an entire 18 and over product line specifically for adults.
Matt Edmundson:I have bought Lego as an adult, right?
Matt Edmundson:And the review didn't just save the company.
Matt Edmundson:It has utterly transformed it, and I think you can all see that.
Matt Edmundson:So that's a Lego story.
Matt Edmundson:Hopefully that's rounded off that circle.
Matt Edmundson:And it's all of this is backed by some pretty compelling research.
Matt Edmundson:Let me tell you, there's one, there's one secret actually.
Matt Edmundson:If you do these reviews on a regular basis, there is one additional secret.
Matt Edmundson:This is that saving the best tall last thing we do on the podcast.
Matt Edmundson:Because if you stay around to the end, you always get the extra nug nugget, right?
Matt Edmundson:Um, this is that one saving the best tall last.
Matt Edmundson:It's all to do with having an accountability partner because
Matt Edmundson:studies show that if you do, you increase the likelihood of achieving
Matt Edmundson:your goals by how much do you think?
Matt Edmundson:Just sit there and think, I dunno how you feel when you hear words
Matt Edmundson:like accountability partner.
Matt Edmundson:A lot of people go like, oh, really?
Matt Edmundson:Um, but listen, I'm gonna give you the number in a second, but
Matt Edmundson:I honestly think about it, right?
Matt Edmundson:What is the likelihood of you achieving your goals?
Matt Edmundson:What is the increase, sorry.
Matt Edmundson:In the likelihood of you achi achieving your goals, what percentage
Matt Edmundson:increase do you give yourself by having an accountability partner?
Matt Edmundson:What's that number in your head?
Matt Edmundson:5%, 10%? I don't know.
Matt Edmundson:It's 95, 90 5%, you want to be almost twice as likely to achieve your goals.
Matt Edmundson:That's one heck of a jump, right?
Matt Edmundson:Um, especially when you compare the fact that actually it's just 10% when you
Matt Edmundson:give, uh, when you just do it yourself.
Matt Edmundson:So without the accountability partner, you are twice as likely
Matt Edmundson:to succeed at achieving your goals if you just go yourself.
Matt Edmundson:It's a 10% chance.
Matt Edmundson:Always worth bearing in mind when you're setting your New
Matt Edmundson:Year's resolutions as well.
Matt Edmundson:That is saving the best till last.
Matt Edmundson:Let that sink in 95% versus 10%.
Matt Edmundson:So I think reviewing in isolation has limits.
Matt Edmundson:You know, you'll be kinder to yourself maybe than you should be.
Matt Edmundson:Uh, you'll miss the blind spots that others are gonna catch for you.
Matt Edmundson:And if you guys are anything like me, you've had those sorts of moments where
Matt Edmundson:you've explained something to a friend or a business partner or maybe a board.
Matt Edmundson:Remember, and just saying it out loud made you realize how crazy it sounds.
Matt Edmundson:I have so many good ideas in my head that as soon as I verbalize it, I
Matt Edmundson:go, that's just stupid, isn't it?
Matt Edmundson:Yes.
Matt Edmundson:Uh, and that's the power of not doing this alone.
Matt Edmundson:And it's one of the key reasons.
Matt Edmundson:Quick plug, uh, why we created the e-commerce Cohort, which is a free
Matt Edmundson:monthly group where founders share the challenges they're going through.
Matt Edmundson:They give feedback, hold each other accountable.
Matt Edmundson:Um, there's a WhatsApp group for the sort of ongoing conversation between the calls.
Matt Edmundson:It's super low key, but the account, the accountability piece is genuinely.
Matt Edmundson:Powerful and, um, we're loving running cohorts, so if you want to join Cohort.
Matt Edmundson:Uh, you can definitely find out more if you're doing this review and thinking, I
Matt Edmundson:wish I had someone to talk this through.
Matt Edmundson:That's what cohort's for.
Matt Edmundson:You can find out more information at eCommerce Podcast dot net.
Matt Edmundson:Go to eCommercePodcast.net and you'll find information on there about Cohort.
Matt Edmundson:There's a, a link right at the top says Join Cohort.
Matt Edmundson:So go click that and have a little read, um, and just let
Matt Edmundson:us know if you wanna join.
Matt Edmundson:It'd be great to see you in one of the groups.
Matt Edmundson:Okay.
Matt Edmundson:So let me close because what I want you to take away from this,
Matt Edmundson:right, let's, let's summarize
Matt Edmundson:number one, you've got to do the review.
Matt Edmundson:So block in a day to do the review.
Matt Edmundson:Treat it like a board meeting with yourself.
Matt Edmundson:Don't let January arrive without understanding, uh,
Matt Edmundson:what has happened this year.
Matt Edmundson:I don't let January arrive just thinking about this, coming out in January.
Matt Edmundson:Don't let February arrive.
Matt Edmundson:Without having taken the time to do this right.
Matt Edmundson:Number two, so you, you are wanting to do the review, use the framework.
Matt Edmundson:Number two is use the Slingshot framework
Matt Edmundson:right?
Matt Edmundson:I think it's a really good framework.
Matt Edmundson:It covers everything you need to know.
Matt Edmundson:Go through those seven areas, sell story, tech stack, marketing,
Matt Edmundson:optimization, experience and growth.
Matt Edmundson:And for each one, ask what worked.
Matt Edmundson:And what didn't and what did we learn?
Matt Edmundson:You can use the freebie, like I say, track the numbers.
Matt Edmundson:Number three, get your metrics in place so you can do your year on year comparison.
Matt Edmundson:And number four: watch out for the Genius Trap.
Matt Edmundson:Especially if the business went well for you last year.
Matt Edmundson:Don't use a review just to prove how smart you are.
Matt Edmundson:We all know you are smart.
Matt Edmundson:Use it to confront the brutal facts with that spirit of faith and adventure, that
Matt Edmundson:the future can and will be different.
Matt Edmundson:And number five: don't do it alone.
Matt Edmundson:Find someone to share your finding with, uh, get that accountability partner.
Matt Edmundson:It makes such a massive difference.
Matt Edmundson:And as I mentioned, I've put all of this together in the year end review
Matt Edmundson:workbook that walks you through all seven areas with specific questions,
Matt Edmundson:with metrics to track, and there's space to capture your lessons and goals.
Matt Edmundson:It is completely free, and of course, the link is in the description, uh, below.
Matt Edmundson:All we just heard of to website eCommercePodcast.net.
Matt Edmundson:Click on the resources link and just search out this guide.
Matt Edmundson:Uh, all I ask is you download it, work through it, and
Matt Edmundson:let me know how you get on.
Matt Edmundson:And hey, if no one's told you yet today, let me be the first.
Matt Edmundson:You are awesome.
Matt Edmundson:Created, awesome.
Matt Edmundson:Yes, you are.
Matt Edmundson:It's just a burden you have to bear.
Matt Edmundson:You are a genius.
Matt Edmundson:We know you're a genius.
Matt Edmundson:You don't have to prove it with the review.
Matt Edmundson:You are a legend.
Matt Edmundson:Absolutely.
Matt Edmundson:Thank you for being with us here at the start of the year.
Matt Edmundson:May I wish you a very, very happy New Year and an insanely prosperous 2026.
Matt Edmundson:I'll see you in the next episode, but that's it from me.
Matt Edmundson:Thank you so much for joining me.
Matt Edmundson:Bye for now.