Welcome to fangirl football.
JudyI'm Judy.
LaurenAnd I'm Lauren.
LaurenWelcome back.
LaurenFor our week 17 mini DFS Christmas Day episode, we are going to chat the two games that are on this Wednesday.
LaurenKansas City at Pittsburgh and then Baltimore at Houston.
LaurenAnd then we're going to build some lineups.
LaurenWe have a contest going this week.
LaurenIt's a $1 Christmas contest, winner take all again, like last week.
JudyJudy yeah, exactly.
JudyWinner take all, dollar contest.
JudySo these are kind of fun.
JudyIt's really interesting because we just talked about these four teams last Saturday.
JudyIt's the same four teams.
JudyThey're just exchanging opponents and locations to make it a little bit interesting.
JudyBut I haven't really seen the NFL do a whole lot of that.
JudyIt's kind of fun.
JudyMakes it even for everyone.
JudySo let's kick it off with talking about the Kansas City at Pittsburgh game.
JudyKansas City is favored by two and a half over under is 43 and a half.
JudyI believe this is the first game on on Christmas Day.
JudyAnd for the Steelers, cornerback Joey Porter is out, which should help the passing game a little bit for the Chiefs.
JudyAt least that's what I'm thinking.
JudyI feel like the storyline here is can Pittsburgh keep this a competitive game?
JudyAnd that is largely relying on Pickens.
JudyTo me, what do you think?
JudyCan they?
LaurenPittsburgh was a bit different this last week and they're the last two weeks they've just seemed not as strong as they did earlier in the season.
LaurenAnd maybe I'm just pinpointing things too much to that Baltimore Pittsburgh game earlier in the season and then comparing it to the one we saw in saw this past weekend where it was completely different.
JudyI mean, we saw so many dropped passes this weekend and Russell Wilson was making good throws, but the receivers weren't coming down with them.
JudyAnd I feel like a lot of that is on Pickens.
JudySo will Pickens play?
JudyHe's missed the last three games.
JudyIf they get him back and they get a home matchup, I feel like this becomes a totally different game for the Chiefs.
JudyIsaiah Pacheco hasn't looked good since his return from that broken leg.
JudyShould we just go with Hunt?
JudyThere's not a lot of options when we start looking at four quarterbacks, kind of six running backs and then the mystery of wide receivers that we're going to get to.
LaurenYeah, because on the wide receiver side, we get Hollywood Brown.
JudyWe do.
JudyAnd Hollywood Brown had a great game last week.
JudyThey didn't ease him back in.
JudyHe had eight targets, five catches.
JudyHe did look good in that role and Xavier Worthy left the game for a brief period of time but did return and Kansas City can lock up the AFC and get their buy if they get a win this week.
JudyEveryone's kind of cheap too on the slate, so I feel Hollywood Brown at 4500 is just a bargain that I've got to take a chance on.
JudyHunt at 5200.
JudyThere's not a lot that are on here that are super expensive so you can really pay for your pieces that you want and then fill in with the other ones because the pricing is so good.
JudyWhat about the Steelers running backs?
JudyDo you like either Jalen Warren or Naijee Harris?
LaurenIt's funny, I was gonna ask you the same thing.
LaurenI'm a little concerned with Najee Harris just because his snap count has significantly declined in the last two weeks by 50% compared to prior to that.
LaurenAnd we are seeing Jalen Warren take more snaps and also have some receiving points as well.
LaurenSo I just as much as I want to go to Najee Harris based on prior to the last two week history, a little concerned.
LaurenJust recent trends.
JudyYeah, I'm concerned about recent trends.
JudyAnd author Smith, he coached the Falcons last year and drove me crazy.
JudyI never knew if he was actually going to run Bijan Robinson or not.
JudyAnd so Arthur Smith and I are not friends.
JudyHe drives me mad.
JudyAnd last week he gave it to Cordell Patterson.
JudyHe just loves Cordell Patterson.
JudyHe took him from the Falcons with him to the Steelers and he drives me crazy using Cordell Patterson at the goal line.
LaurenWell, should we chat about Baltimore at Houston?
JudyYeah.
JudyTank Dell's gone.
JudyYep.
JudyPuts it all on Nico Collins.
LaurenBaltimore's only favored by 4.
JudyIt is surprising how competitive Vegas thinks this game is going to be.
JudyThey've got it over under a 47 and Baltimore by four, which is really a seven point swing if we want to think about it.
JudyCause it is in Houston.
JudyCan Houston keep this game competitive?
JudyI don't know.
JudyThat's going to come down to how creative they get and I feel like that's going to involve using Dalton Schultz more and more, which we saw happen when Tank Dell went out.
JudyHe knows this offense and the more that they can get him involved in that passing game then the better off they're going to be.
JudyThey've also got to take the pressure off of Nico Collins because otherwise Baltimore can just cover him and know that that's where it's going to go.
LaurenWhat do you think of any of the other Houston wide receivers?
LaurenDo you think we could find any.
LaurenIs it worth looking at any of them even this is only a two game.
JudyYeah, we're still trying to figure out if Mechi is going to be healthy enough to play.
JudyThey just signed Deontay Johnson.
JudyI don't know that.
JudyI mean he's not somebody I'm going to put in DFS after two days.
JudyAlthough he may be super motivated to play against the team he didn't want to play for.
JudySo that's kind of an interesting revenge scenario.
JudyCJ Stroud hasn't had a 20 plus fantasy point week since week five.
JudyDo you want to play mix in?
JudyI mean the Ravens give up points.
LaurenBut not to rushing yards.
LaurenReally.
JudyYeah, that's true.
JudySo we've got to decide who do we want to pay for here And.
LaurenI feel like Nico's gonna be the only.
LaurenOnly person from my side or from my vantage point point of the Houston side that I'd really want to pick up.
LaurenBut this is definitely.
LaurenLet's chat Baltimore.
LaurenCause maybe I'll balance out a little bit.
JudySo the problem with Baltimore is LaMar Jackson is fifteen hundred dollars more than either of the other three quarterbacks.
JudySo I can't really see needing to pay for Lamar Jackson unless I get bought in to this being a very competitive shooting.
JudyShoot them out, score game.
JudyAnd I don't see that.
JudyLove Derek Henry.
JudyI'm not real sure I can buy into the Texans being able to stop Derrick Henry and we didn't see him get stopped last week.
JudySo I'm pretty happy paying my 8200 for Derek Henry and letting Lamar go.
JudyHow about you?
LaurenAnd at that point you're the storyline of Houston not keeping it competitive.
LaurenThey Baltimore then has no pressure to throw the ball.
LaurenThey can just run it.
LaurenAnd running takes more time than throwing to move it down the field.
LaurenSo they'll want to run it.
JudyThey'll want to run it.
JudyThere's less danger, you run more time off the clock, all of those things.
JudyBaltimore is still battering, battling Pittsburgh for the division.
JudyThey will know when this game starts.
JudyObviously if Pittsburgh won the earlier matchup and the Texans aren't really playing for much, they've already clinched their division.
JudyThey will get a home game that first weekend of the playoffs.
JudyI guess they're playing for seating a little bit but that's about it.
JudyAll right, so who do you want to stack?
JudyWhich game do you feel is going to be the most competitive?
LaurenOh, I don't know.
JudyThis is all right.
LaurenSo I.
LaurenYeah, I'll let you pick the stack.
LaurenI'VE been struggling to figure out which.
LaurenWhich one I think is not going to be.
JudyIt's so funny.
JudySo last weekend Quentin wanted to go Russell Wilson because he was the cheapest net and I didn't.
JudyAnd now I want to go Russell Wilson.
JudySo I think they're going to get George Pickens back.
JudyI want to stack Russell Wilson with George Pickens because they're at home, it's Christmas Day.
JudyI think they're going to be super, super motivated.
JudyWe'll put those two in there.
JudyNow I'm going to add in Derrick Henry because I want Derrick Henry.
JudyNow we have to decide, do we think that Mixin can be competitive?
JudyDo you like Isaiah Pacheco, Jalen Warren, Najee Harris or Kareem Hunt?
JudyWe've got one more running back in there and we need to slot in one of those.
JudyAnd I'm not really sure that Mixin is going to look that good against the Ravens.
JudyThat's not the matchup that I think I want to pay up for.
JudySo I'm really buying into one of the other three and I'm kind of off Pacheco as well since he hasn't looked real well on top of that.
JudySo now we're boiling down to Jalen Warren, Najee Harris or Kareem Hunt.
JudyEileen Kareem Hunt.
LaurenI.
LaurenI'm with you there.
LaurenI'm leaning Kareem Hunt as well.
LaurenI think now I need you.
LaurenJalen.
LaurenJalen Warren, if I think you could as well.
LaurenAnd Risky.
JudyYeah, I definitely could go in Jalen Warren and get on that side as well.
JudyNow we get to pick two more wide receivers and I look at Nico Collins.
JudyIf they are going to be competitive, then I would have gone Nico Collins.
JudyBut Nico can still support a lot of the passing.
JudyI feel like on the Texans side, we're either picking Nico or Dalton Schultz.
JudyI have a really hard time buying into both of them.
JudyDo you have a preference?
LaurenI buy into to Collins, more to Nico.
LaurenColin.
LaurenYeah.
JudyAll right, we'll slot Nico in there.
JudyWe'll come back for.
JudyWell, we still have a flex as well.
JudyIs there?
JudyHow about Hollywood Brown?
JudyI only 4,500.
JudyI think he has a bargain on this slate at 4,500.
JudySo let's put him in there.
JudyNow we have to pick a tight end.
JudyTravis Kelce, Mark Andrews, John Schultz, Pat Friarmuth, Isaiah Likely or Noah Gray.
JudyThat's what it comes down to.
JudyAnd that's there's $2,000 range from Kelsey to Noah Gray.
JudyAll of them are good tight Ends, I feel like all of them are going to get points.
JudyI would lean since we're already doing the Russell Wilson stack.
JudyI'd probably go far youth here.
JudyHow do you feel about him?
LaurenYeah, I could see that being a good call.
LaurenI also like Mark Andrews.
LaurenHe's gotten a touchdown in the last couple of games and it seems like that connection with Lamar Jackson has been really strong.
LaurenI know they're not planning.
LaurenWe're not expecting them to throw the ball a lot, but I do like seeing that recent trend of consistent touchdowns.
JudyYeah, I do too.
JudyI just think Friarmouth is going to get a little bit more usage or that's the storyline that I'm telling myself that the Steelers are going to be behind and trying to catch up in this game or at least competitive.
JudySo now we have to pick a defense we can spend all the way up.
JudyThere's only $600 difference from the Ravens to the Texans and I feel like the Ravens have the better matchup for defensively here.
LaurenYeah, I definitely agree there.
JudyNow we need a 4600 or less, preferably wide receiver that we're going to slot in for our flex slot.
JudyIf we're all in on the Steelers, then it's Calvin Austin iii.
JudyOr we could go Robert woods down in Houston.
JudyBut we also have Nico Collins sitting in there.
JudyBut it's.
JudyIt's a small slate.
JudySo it's really.
JudyWho are we picking here that.
JudyThat could potentially pay for themselves?
JudyI'm still leaning Calvin Austin.
LaurenYeah, I agree with you.
LaurenI don't see could.
LaurenI could do Mechi.
LaurenI'd wanna know more information and I just.
LaurenThat questionable tag makes me nervous.
LaurenSo.
LaurenI agree.
JudyYeah, I like I, I'd probably go woods today.
JudyI mean this is Monday, so if I had to make the decision today, I'd probably go woods over me.
JudyBut I don't.
JudyI.
JudyI can pick Calvin Austin the third and we'll go with him.
JudySo Pickens is our only question.
JudyQuestionable one that we really need to get a feel for before Wednesday when this kicks off.
LaurenAnd we have a good feeling about that.
JudyYeah.
JudySo I'm gonna enter it.
JudyWe're good.
LaurenWell, that wraps us up for our Christmas Day DFS mini episode.
LaurenCheck out the links in the description where you can enter our $1 Christmas Day DFS contest.
LaurenWinner take all.
LaurenCan't wait to play.
LaurenAnd Merry Christmas.
LaurenEnjoy the football game.
JudyMerry Christmas.
JudyHappy holidays.
JudyGood luck in your fantasy championships and DFS.