1 00:00:04,200 --> 00:00:04,740 Jacob Shapiro: Hello listeners. 2 00:00:04,740 --> 00:00:07,020 Welcome back to another episode of Geopolitical Cousins. 3 00:00:07,020 --> 00:00:08,250 Marco and I are back at it. 4 00:00:08,250 --> 00:00:11,220 The first hour is a continuation of our last episode. 5 00:00:11,490 --> 00:00:15,900 We complete our geopolitical power draft from our last episode and then argue 6 00:00:15,900 --> 00:00:20,370 about whether we needed to make some changes based on how the selections fell. 7 00:00:20,400 --> 00:00:23,400 Uh, Marco and I get into a heated debate about Canada and 8 00:00:23,400 --> 00:00:24,570 where it belongs on the list. 9 00:00:24,870 --> 00:00:27,960 Uh, from there we turn to the world and talk about some things that are going on. 10 00:00:28,230 --> 00:00:30,990 Uh, we talk about the big beautiful budget Bill, what that means. 11 00:00:30,990 --> 00:00:33,270 Some interesting disagreement between me and Marco on that. 12 00:00:33,570 --> 00:00:37,650 Um, I basically try to get myself canceled by wading into issues related 13 00:00:37,650 --> 00:00:40,290 to Israel Palestine antisemitism. 14 00:00:40,470 --> 00:00:42,930 And then we close with some thoughts about South Africa. 15 00:00:43,275 --> 00:00:46,635 Um, which is in the news for all sorts of strange reasons. 16 00:00:46,635 --> 00:00:48,345 So hope you enjoy the episode. 17 00:00:48,585 --> 00:00:50,385 Uh, we've appreciated your feedback so much. 18 00:00:50,385 --> 00:00:53,685 You can keep writing to me at jacob@jacobshapiro.com with more feedback. 19 00:00:53,685 --> 00:00:55,845 I forward it all to Marco and I promise here. 20 00:00:56,355 --> 00:01:00,045 Um, in the next week or two, we will get a podcast specific email so that you can 21 00:01:00,045 --> 00:01:01,635 make sure you send things to both of us. 22 00:01:01,665 --> 00:01:05,985 Uh, really shouldn't take that long, but it's been a crazy, crazy couple of weeks. 23 00:01:06,135 --> 00:01:09,555 So, um, we're so grateful to have you all along for the ride. 24 00:01:09,555 --> 00:01:10,425 Thank you for listening. 25 00:01:10,425 --> 00:01:11,805 Thank you for leaving a rating. 26 00:01:11,805 --> 00:01:14,535 Thank you for leaving a comment and especially thank you for sharing 27 00:01:14,805 --> 00:01:17,354 with anybody you think would be interested in this podcast. 28 00:01:17,625 --> 00:01:18,076 Uh, we'll see you at, 29 00:01:23,475 --> 00:01:24,405 take us away, Marco. 30 00:01:25,815 --> 00:01:30,615 Marko Papic: Okay, Jacob, uh, great to, um, be recording another podcast with you. 31 00:01:31,005 --> 00:01:37,200 We left off with, uh, the top 20 I. Basically geopolitical draft. 32 00:01:37,560 --> 00:01:41,009 For those of you who didn't, uh, listen to our last episode, I 33 00:01:41,009 --> 00:01:44,670 would expect, uh, I would suggest, expect, I would suggest not. 34 00:01:44,670 --> 00:01:44,759 Well, 35 00:01:44,804 --> 00:01:47,009 Jacob Shapiro: I, I expect, I expect, what are you doing here if you 36 00:01:47,009 --> 00:01:50,640 didn't listen to our previous two hour long geopolitical mock draft? 37 00:01:50,640 --> 00:01:51,240 Come on guys. 38 00:01:51,780 --> 00:01:52,259 Marko Papic: I mean, yes. 39 00:01:52,320 --> 00:01:56,640 Uh, this is gonna be very weird because, uh, we're gonna, we stopped 40 00:01:56,640 --> 00:01:58,800 basically with the 16th draft pick. 41 00:01:58,800 --> 00:02:01,620 So what, what Jacob and I did, just a little recount. 42 00:02:02,190 --> 00:02:07,169 Um, we picked basically countries in terms of geopolitical standing 43 00:02:07,800 --> 00:02:08,970 and the current draft board. 44 00:02:08,970 --> 00:02:09,900 I had the first pick. 45 00:02:09,900 --> 00:02:11,399 I picked the United States of America. 46 00:02:12,030 --> 00:02:13,350 Jacob had the second pick. 47 00:02:13,829 --> 00:02:14,670 He picked China. 48 00:02:15,690 --> 00:02:20,220 I then decided to cheat and just take all of Western Europe as my third pick. 49 00:02:20,460 --> 00:02:24,240 But really, really the way I did it is, I call it the EMU five. 50 00:02:24,420 --> 00:02:29,490 So the five largest economies in the European Marre Union, which is Germany, 51 00:02:29,550 --> 00:02:31,620 France, Italy, Spain, and the Netherlands. 52 00:02:31,620 --> 00:02:32,250 I just took them all. 53 00:02:33,480 --> 00:02:37,320 Uh, with the expectation that over the next 30 years, which is really our time 54 00:02:37,320 --> 00:02:40,800 horizon for this, you know, 10 to 30 years, uh, they would integrate further. 55 00:02:41,130 --> 00:02:45,990 Jacob then went, uh, with Turkey on, uh, with the fourth pick, which 56 00:02:45,990 --> 00:02:47,640 was, I guess the first surprise. 57 00:02:48,270 --> 00:02:52,890 I countered with another pretty, you know, pretty sort of down the middle 58 00:02:52,890 --> 00:02:55,590 pick of India with fifth Jacob. 59 00:02:55,590 --> 00:02:58,440 I think you surprised again, sixth Russia. 60 00:02:58,890 --> 00:02:59,490 That's what I do. 61 00:02:59,850 --> 00:03:00,480 That's what you do. 62 00:03:00,480 --> 00:03:00,690 Yeah. 63 00:03:00,690 --> 00:03:03,810 You're looking for the, for the projects. 64 00:03:03,870 --> 00:03:06,570 Um, and Russia will be like a reclamation project. 65 00:03:06,570 --> 00:03:09,810 It's like a 43-year-old basketball player that's like played in Euro 66 00:03:09,810 --> 00:03:14,520 league and you're gonna bring them back into, uh, into, uh, the NBA. 67 00:03:14,760 --> 00:03:19,800 I then, uh, went through my first, uh, surprise picked South Korea, uh, which 68 00:03:19,800 --> 00:03:23,010 of course, uh, flies in the face of everything we know about demographics. 69 00:03:23,430 --> 00:03:27,450 I then proceeded to, uh, shit on demographics as a tool of analysis, 70 00:03:27,810 --> 00:03:29,760 which I'm sure irked a lot of people. 71 00:03:29,760 --> 00:03:35,205 I. Jacob then went, uh, with a really nice solid, you know, eight Brazil. 72 00:03:35,745 --> 00:03:39,495 Uh, I countered with my insane pick of Canada, which clearly is a home bias. 73 00:03:39,495 --> 00:03:41,805 I literally have a British Columbia poster right there. 74 00:03:42,165 --> 00:03:46,275 It was a, a little, uh, interesting, uh, deviation from Marco's 75 00:03:46,275 --> 00:03:49,695 nihilist Dlo indifference by being a Canadian nationalist. 76 00:03:50,235 --> 00:03:51,945 Jacob Shapiro: He does have a heart, ladies and gentlemen. 77 00:03:51,945 --> 00:03:52,545 How about that? 78 00:03:52,725 --> 00:03:55,725 Marko Papic: He does, yeah, it's, it's coated with maple syrup, uh, 79 00:03:56,415 --> 00:03:58,245 which would be very bad for my help. 80 00:03:58,725 --> 00:04:02,685 Then you pick Iran, which I love, and so jealous of that pick as number 81 00:04:02,685 --> 00:04:04,995 10, because this is a future draft. 82 00:04:04,995 --> 00:04:08,385 It's just such a smart way to go, like, you know, 90 million 83 00:04:08,385 --> 00:04:12,075 young people educated, uh, great geography, great resources. 84 00:04:12,405 --> 00:04:14,505 Why expect it to be a prior state forever. 85 00:04:14,985 --> 00:04:20,055 Marco then kind of did the same thing, but with, uh, Argentina, um, Jacob. 86 00:04:20,055 --> 00:04:24,255 Then a surprise pick went with a city state Singapore, although I think, uh, 87 00:04:24,315 --> 00:04:27,225 solid one, I ConEd with Saudi Arabia. 88 00:04:27,900 --> 00:04:34,080 Then slipping all the way to 14 is, you know, Japan and then Icon with Ukraine. 89 00:04:34,440 --> 00:04:36,599 Uh, and now we are at 16 pick. 90 00:04:36,599 --> 00:04:37,770 And it's your turn, Jacob? 91 00:04:39,510 --> 00:04:40,320 Jacob Shapiro: It is my pick. 92 00:04:40,349 --> 00:04:43,109 Um, all right, so we're gonna pick up where we left off and then maybe do 93 00:04:43,109 --> 00:04:45,870 some, some analysis of, of things, right? 94 00:04:45,870 --> 00:04:46,740 Is that, is that the plan? 95 00:04:46,740 --> 00:04:46,799 Yeah. 96 00:04:46,799 --> 00:04:46,919 Yes. 97 00:04:46,924 --> 00:04:49,620 Marko Papic: Like in analyzing the draft and what what it tells us. 98 00:04:50,099 --> 00:04:50,400 Jacob Shapiro: Yeah. 99 00:04:50,520 --> 00:04:53,640 I just, I'm, I'm, I already have some of the, criticism is the wrong word. 100 00:04:53,640 --> 00:04:55,590 We got some really nice constructive feedback from people. 101 00:04:55,590 --> 00:04:58,049 And I just wanna remind people that my definition of power 102 00:04:58,049 --> 00:04:59,760 was, was deceptively simple. 103 00:04:59,760 --> 00:05:03,330 It was, can this country make other countries do what it wants them to do? 104 00:05:03,630 --> 00:05:06,990 So, like, for instance, Mexico has a lot of different like components 105 00:05:06,990 --> 00:05:09,330 to it that might make, you wanna put it in a geopolitical mock drop. 106 00:05:09,330 --> 00:05:12,150 But when I sit down and think about, well, can Mexico make anyone 107 00:05:12,150 --> 00:05:14,520 do what Mexico wants them to do? 108 00:05:14,940 --> 00:05:17,849 Eh, like, that's pretty tough 'cause they're so dependent on the United States. 109 00:05:18,270 --> 00:05:22,020 Um, so I, I think actually, um, I, I struggled with this 110 00:05:22,020 --> 00:05:22,919 'cause we're in that sort of. 111 00:05:23,655 --> 00:05:25,665 Weird nebulous space of what happens next. 112 00:05:26,025 --> 00:05:28,935 Uh, but I'm, and I, I think this could be a bust. 113 00:05:28,935 --> 00:05:31,755 This is a high, high risk, high volatility pick. 114 00:05:31,755 --> 00:05:34,905 I think I'm gonna take South Africa off the board here too, and I know we'll 115 00:05:34,905 --> 00:05:36,465 get to South Africa a little bit later. 116 00:05:36,705 --> 00:05:37,935 I like their geography. 117 00:05:38,175 --> 00:05:39,585 I like their resources. 118 00:05:39,795 --> 00:05:40,905 I like their potential. 119 00:05:40,905 --> 00:05:44,235 I like them as a potential regional leader in Sub-Saharan Africa. 120 00:05:44,235 --> 00:05:47,595 And there's really not an African country on our list quite yet. 121 00:05:47,595 --> 00:05:49,935 And this is where population growth is gonna be happening. 122 00:05:49,935 --> 00:05:52,215 I think the new scramble, like geopolitical scramble 123 00:05:52,215 --> 00:05:53,655 will happen in Africa. 124 00:05:53,655 --> 00:05:57,165 And if there is going to be a regional leader who's going to like, you know, 125 00:05:57,285 --> 00:06:00,705 uh, take advantage of that, it's probably going to be south, uh, South Africa. 126 00:06:00,705 --> 00:06:04,065 Now, the problem is there probably won't be a regional leader and probably 127 00:06:04,065 --> 00:06:08,085 foreign powers will just use Africa like a check checkerboard and South 128 00:06:08,085 --> 00:06:10,815 Africa's internal socioeconomic cohesion. 129 00:06:11,505 --> 00:06:11,925 I don't know. 130 00:06:11,925 --> 00:06:16,035 It might take more than 30 years, if ever, for that to immers into a, a true nation. 131 00:06:16,035 --> 00:06:18,270 But I'll, I'll take the potential and I'll take the risk and I'll 132 00:06:18,270 --> 00:06:19,755 take them off the board here at 16. 133 00:06:21,105 --> 00:06:22,125 Marko Papic: Alright, that's cool. 134 00:06:22,185 --> 00:06:26,955 Um, so one of the things that I incorporated into my analysis, 135 00:06:26,955 --> 00:06:28,125 I like your definition. 136 00:06:28,125 --> 00:06:30,975 Obviously that's a classical international relations definition. 137 00:06:30,975 --> 00:06:31,725 It's a really good one. 138 00:06:32,080 --> 00:06:35,265 I, I think you did something more though, Jacob, your Iran pick was 139 00:06:35,265 --> 00:06:40,995 good because it's not about what Iran can do today to compel behavior. 140 00:06:41,595 --> 00:06:45,435 It's about what Iran is going to do over the next, let's say 10 to 30 years. 141 00:06:45,435 --> 00:06:48,825 So I think that you did more than just say, you know what I can do today. 142 00:06:48,825 --> 00:06:50,895 And, and I think that that was a really good analysis. 143 00:06:50,895 --> 00:06:54,915 I use the quantitative index that I've created before at BCA research. 144 00:06:54,975 --> 00:06:56,865 It's called the BCA Geopolitical Power Index. 145 00:06:56,865 --> 00:06:58,215 And then I deviated away from it. 146 00:06:58,995 --> 00:06:59,085 Mm-hmm. 147 00:06:59,085 --> 00:07:03,165 Uh, so on this index us is number one, China's two, India is three, 148 00:07:04,035 --> 00:07:10,125 number four is Germany, number six is France, and then Italy is number nine. 149 00:07:10,155 --> 00:07:13,185 Spain is 13, Netherlands is 17. 150 00:07:13,185 --> 00:07:17,205 So as you can see, I, I actually stuck to that. 151 00:07:17,205 --> 00:07:18,555 So US is first. 152 00:07:19,065 --> 00:07:19,605 Um. 153 00:07:20,070 --> 00:07:23,250 Picked, EMU, third punished India a little bit. 154 00:07:23,250 --> 00:07:24,060 Mm-hmm. 155 00:07:24,150 --> 00:07:26,460 I picked it fifth, uh, but just a little bit. 156 00:07:26,969 --> 00:07:28,799 Uh, I just have some questions there about India. 157 00:07:29,280 --> 00:07:31,380 Uh, I then ignored, uh, a couple of countries. 158 00:07:31,380 --> 00:07:34,109 I mean, you picked Russia, which is fifth on our, uh, on this index. 159 00:07:34,950 --> 00:07:37,500 Um, Japan is eight. 160 00:07:37,799 --> 00:07:40,140 It's slipped to 14. 161 00:07:40,919 --> 00:07:44,789 I did pick South Korea seventh, and by the way, it's number 10 on 162 00:07:44,789 --> 00:07:46,560 the BC geopolitical power index. 163 00:07:46,560 --> 00:07:47,159 Mm-hmm. 164 00:07:47,460 --> 00:07:49,950 So, you know, not that much of a crazy pick. 165 00:07:49,950 --> 00:07:52,049 You picked Brazil eighth. 166 00:07:52,049 --> 00:07:54,030 It's actually 11th on the index. 167 00:07:54,150 --> 00:07:56,070 Canada is 12th on the index. 168 00:07:56,070 --> 00:07:59,400 So I actually did not pick Canada that far up. 169 00:07:59,969 --> 00:08:05,849 Um, and then we got some, um, criticism, you know, and one of them was Mexico. 170 00:08:07,530 --> 00:08:09,359 We also got criticism for Indonesia. 171 00:08:10,349 --> 00:08:15,750 And I do think that we are missing a South Asian, a southeast Asian power. 172 00:08:15,750 --> 00:08:17,250 Now you picked Singapore. 173 00:08:17,700 --> 00:08:20,670 Um, I'm, I'm actually going to pick Indonesia here. 174 00:08:21,930 --> 00:08:26,039 And, um, I struggle 'cause I have two other countries that I kind of want. 175 00:08:26,640 --> 00:08:29,789 But I do think that that criticism from outside was good. 176 00:08:29,789 --> 00:08:34,169 I have written a lot on Indonesia for work, uh, for my clients. 177 00:08:34,380 --> 00:08:35,159 I do like it. 178 00:08:35,159 --> 00:08:38,640 I do think it's a very interesting, uh, country And using your own definition. 179 00:08:39,120 --> 00:08:41,880 Jacob, what's interesting is they've already compelled behavior from 180 00:08:41,880 --> 00:08:43,200 other states, including from China. 181 00:08:43,620 --> 00:08:48,750 Indonesia famously slapped tariffs on export of raw nickel. 182 00:08:49,860 --> 00:08:54,480 China could have retaliated and said, listen, we need this for our batteries. 183 00:08:54,540 --> 00:08:57,150 Um, so no, we're gonna slap tariffs on you. 184 00:08:57,150 --> 00:09:02,310 But instead what China did is it moved $20 billion worth of CapEx to 185 00:09:02,310 --> 00:09:03,990 Indonesia to build them a processing. 186 00:09:04,740 --> 00:09:06,510 Nickel processing industry from scratch. 187 00:09:06,540 --> 00:09:10,290 So Indonesia's now, uh, one of the world leaders in processing nickel, 188 00:09:10,290 --> 00:09:13,320 and, uh, from what I understand, they're gonna slap tariffs on that too 189 00:09:14,040 --> 00:09:18,240 and compel China to move their battery production facilities to Indonesia. 190 00:09:18,240 --> 00:09:22,170 So it's a country that even China can't ignore and can't really punish. 191 00:09:22,170 --> 00:09:24,030 So I'm picking Indonesia number 17. 192 00:09:24,960 --> 00:09:25,440 Jacob Shapiro: I'm jealous. 193 00:09:25,440 --> 00:09:28,110 They, I was between South Africa and Indonesia, so I think we're, we're on 194 00:09:28,110 --> 00:09:29,460 the same, we're on the same page here. 195 00:09:29,460 --> 00:09:32,970 I was hoping to sneak one by you and come back to Indonesia on the other side. 196 00:09:33,390 --> 00:09:37,080 Um, I know I just said that proviso about Mexico not being able to force other 197 00:09:37,080 --> 00:09:40,350 people to do things, but with a future focus, I'll take Mexico here at 18. 198 00:09:40,770 --> 00:09:44,190 Um, and that's really based on the notion that yes, today Mexico is. 199 00:09:44,910 --> 00:09:49,920 Uh, the 52nd state, if Canada's got the 51st state sort of locked down, but 30 200 00:09:49,920 --> 00:09:53,610 years from now, if you've got US China decoupling and a big trade war and the 201 00:09:53,610 --> 00:09:57,120 United States is that much more dependent on Mexico demographics favorable. 202 00:09:57,540 --> 00:09:58,380 Um, I'll take it. 203 00:09:58,380 --> 00:10:00,810 I, I'm worried about the cartels. 204 00:10:00,810 --> 00:10:02,880 I'm worried about the future of Mexican democracy. 205 00:10:02,880 --> 00:10:05,010 Like there's lots of sort of landmines there. 206 00:10:05,010 --> 00:10:08,040 And I'm also just worried about Mexico's overall state of dependence on the 207 00:10:08,040 --> 00:10:11,970 United States, but may maybe 30 years they'll have leverage over number one 208 00:10:12,060 --> 00:10:14,910 and that should at least like, get them some consideration in the top 20. 209 00:10:16,530 --> 00:10:17,970 Marko Papic: Alright, well this is my last pick. 210 00:10:18,030 --> 00:10:19,500 That, that's, that's a great pick. 211 00:10:19,500 --> 00:10:21,990 This is my last one and it's a tough one. 212 00:10:22,140 --> 00:10:27,750 Um, because there is a country that is ranked seventh on my 213 00:10:27,750 --> 00:10:32,910 quantitative number measure and we, none, none of us picked it. 214 00:10:33,180 --> 00:10:35,250 Um, do you know which country this is, Jacob? 215 00:10:35,700 --> 00:10:37,560 Jacob Shapiro: No, I mean, hold on. 216 00:10:37,560 --> 00:10:38,610 Lemme try to guess for a second. 217 00:10:38,970 --> 00:10:41,700 So guys, you ask, it's not, it's not a European country. 218 00:10:42,390 --> 00:10:43,110 Well, I mean it is. 219 00:10:43,110 --> 00:10:43,950 Yes it is. 220 00:10:45,180 --> 00:10:45,480 Go ahead. 221 00:10:45,480 --> 00:10:46,380 I, I'm not sure what is it? 222 00:10:47,220 --> 00:10:47,940 Marko Papic: It's the United Kingdom. 223 00:10:49,080 --> 00:10:50,520 Oh, duh. 224 00:10:51,270 --> 00:10:51,480 Yeah. 225 00:10:52,590 --> 00:10:54,150 Um, it's, it's tough. 226 00:10:54,150 --> 00:10:56,760 You know, this is about the future and I do think that the 227 00:10:56,760 --> 00:10:59,640 UK is in an inexorable decline. 228 00:11:00,960 --> 00:11:05,310 But couple of things about the uk, um, I gave South Korea a very high score. 229 00:11:05,310 --> 00:11:07,890 Here it's seventh because of its soft power. 230 00:11:08,910 --> 00:11:12,240 I mean, if I'm gonna be consistent, I mean, the United 231 00:11:12,240 --> 00:11:14,340 Kingdom has massive soft power. 232 00:11:14,940 --> 00:11:19,170 Always has, uh, United Kingdom has reinvented itself in the past. 233 00:11:20,040 --> 00:11:25,350 Famously, in the 1970s, the United Kingdom was begging the EU to let it in 234 00:11:25,620 --> 00:11:27,210 the EEC as it was called at the time. 235 00:11:28,410 --> 00:11:33,150 And famously, Europeans had to wait for Charlotte to gold to die to let the UK in. 236 00:11:33,510 --> 00:11:39,930 But the UK was on its knees begging, and then it just, you 237 00:11:39,930 --> 00:11:41,610 know, after basically a post. 238 00:11:42,600 --> 00:11:45,780 World Wari, two decades of absolute shocking moles. 239 00:11:46,830 --> 00:11:52,860 It reinvented itself and launched a pretty difficult conflict with Argentina, 240 00:11:53,250 --> 00:11:58,200 which for the United Kingdom in 1980s, in 1982 was, was a difficult one to do. 241 00:11:58,350 --> 00:12:00,660 I mean, it was very far the Fal ones. 242 00:12:00,660 --> 00:12:00,661 Mm-hmm. 243 00:12:01,425 --> 00:12:03,990 So, I, I mean, it's a nuclear power. 244 00:12:03,990 --> 00:12:07,710 It's a leader in many technologies and I think the fact that it slipped to 19 245 00:12:07,710 --> 00:12:10,380 is, is kind of, uh, you know, shocking. 246 00:12:10,380 --> 00:12:17,010 But it's also, I think, uh, maybe we're a little bit of prisoners in the current 247 00:12:17,010 --> 00:12:22,410 moment when it's gotten a lot of flack for Brexit and for being largely irrelevant. 248 00:12:23,954 --> 00:12:24,194 Jacob Shapiro: Yeah. 249 00:12:24,194 --> 00:12:27,045 That, that may be our first, I, we need to go back and, and 250 00:12:27,045 --> 00:12:28,305 uh, and analyze some of these. 251 00:12:28,305 --> 00:12:29,204 That might be a mistake. 252 00:12:29,204 --> 00:12:32,385 I'm not sure that the UK should be that, that that should be that far down. 253 00:12:32,385 --> 00:12:33,194 Although it's, it's tough. 254 00:12:33,224 --> 00:12:37,454 'cause when you think 30 years out, um, you know, it wasn't a couple years 255 00:12:37,454 --> 00:12:40,814 ago we were talking about is the UK even gonna be the UK in 10 years? 256 00:12:40,814 --> 00:12:42,765 Is Northern Ireland gonna join Ireland? 257 00:12:42,765 --> 00:12:44,625 Is Scotland gonna break off and join the eu? 258 00:12:44,625 --> 00:12:48,104 Like, are we getting the return of 17th century British politics and not even 259 00:12:48,104 --> 00:12:51,615 being able to dominate the island, let alone like project power in other places. 260 00:12:51,615 --> 00:12:53,625 But they also have nuclear weapons. 261 00:12:53,625 --> 00:12:54,104 Like you said. 262 00:12:54,104 --> 00:12:57,135 They also, I mean the pound sterling is not what at once was, but it's 263 00:12:57,135 --> 00:12:58,755 still like, has a bigger role. 264 00:12:58,755 --> 00:12:58,814 Yeah. 265 00:12:58,814 --> 00:12:59,084 The world. 266 00:12:59,204 --> 00:13:02,415 A lot of different other current, like, you know, it's, the UK is relevant and 267 00:13:02,415 --> 00:13:05,505 as long as the UK is not gonna fall apart at the seams, like it will probably. 268 00:13:05,535 --> 00:13:09,435 Continue to be relevant and I honestly think I've revised some of my pessimism 269 00:13:09,435 --> 00:13:11,714 on the UK in the last six months. 270 00:13:11,714 --> 00:13:16,334 I've been very bearish, the UK really since Brexit, and it's only in the last 271 00:13:16,334 --> 00:13:19,785 six months with the Trump administration pushing so hard against Europe that 272 00:13:19,785 --> 00:13:23,235 I've sort of changed my tune a little bit because it looks like the UK 273 00:13:23,235 --> 00:13:26,295 now can maybe, it can be this middle ground between Europe and the United 274 00:13:26,295 --> 00:13:29,834 States, or maybe the UK is gonna be an integral part of whatever European. 275 00:13:30,360 --> 00:13:33,480 Confederation emergence, whether that's officially on the inside or some 276 00:13:33,480 --> 00:13:35,070 kind of nascent satellite agreement. 277 00:13:35,490 --> 00:13:38,850 Um, and then that takes away some of the risks of, you know, Scotland 278 00:13:38,850 --> 00:13:41,460 trying to break off or, you know, Northern Ireland, Ireland, well, if 279 00:13:41,460 --> 00:13:45,180 you're all in some kind of EU cohesive entity anyway, does it really matter? 280 00:13:45,180 --> 00:13:48,060 Like it, it's taken some things off the board, so we probably need to, 281 00:13:48,060 --> 00:13:49,590 to go back and, and think about that. 282 00:13:50,189 --> 00:13:55,260 Um, for the last pick, I, I'm really, I, I feel like we're not, uh, I 283 00:13:55,260 --> 00:13:56,670 don't wanna insult these countries. 284 00:13:56,670 --> 00:13:59,460 We're not, uh, skimming the bottom of the basement, but I mean, there's a 285 00:13:59,460 --> 00:14:00,750 couple different directions we could go. 286 00:14:00,750 --> 00:14:04,650 We still have some nuclear powers on the table, like Pakistan, hundreds of 287 00:14:04,650 --> 00:14:06,330 millions of people, nuclear weapons. 288 00:14:06,660 --> 00:14:10,590 Uh, we've got Israel on the table, which today, if it was just a geopolitical 289 00:14:10,590 --> 00:14:13,560 power ranking of today, on my definition, would have to be much higher. 290 00:14:13,560 --> 00:14:17,100 I'm extremely pessimistic about Israel's medium term future, and I 291 00:14:17,100 --> 00:14:20,220 know we're gonna get into that a little bit later, but they do have nukes and 292 00:14:20,220 --> 00:14:23,400 they more than anyone have been active in shaping the region around them. 293 00:14:23,400 --> 00:14:25,290 So it's probably not good to discount them. 294 00:14:25,830 --> 00:14:29,520 Um, and also sitting there staring at me. 295 00:14:30,420 --> 00:14:33,540 Uh, you know, far away from lots of different problems. 296 00:14:33,540 --> 00:14:37,020 Like, okay, they're not gonna project power anywhere besides the South Pacific, 297 00:14:37,020 --> 00:14:38,790 but the South Pacific isn't nothing. 298 00:14:38,910 --> 00:14:41,400 Um, and maybe there's some important things there, and maybe that will 299 00:14:41,400 --> 00:14:42,840 become more important over time. 300 00:14:42,840 --> 00:14:47,370 So I, I think, I think gun to my head, I'm, I'm gonna take Australia 301 00:14:47,370 --> 00:14:50,820 for the last lot, but I don't feel overly, um, I, I feel like we're 302 00:14:50,820 --> 00:14:53,550 really the, the, the bottom of the barrel here in terms of the index. 303 00:14:53,550 --> 00:14:56,700 We're thinking about, oh, like, you know, regional power that can project 304 00:14:56,700 --> 00:15:01,410 power in this very small region, um, and has a lot of different, um, weaknesses. 305 00:15:01,410 --> 00:15:03,930 Like Australia's biggest defense partnership, the United States biggest 306 00:15:03,930 --> 00:15:07,500 economic relationship with China probably can't defend its own sea lanes. 307 00:15:07,500 --> 00:15:10,695 Completely dependent on trade issues of climate change, blah, blah, blah. 308 00:15:10,695 --> 00:15:12,630 But I'll, I'll take Australia 20 to round us up. 309 00:15:13,290 --> 00:15:14,220 Marko Papic: I'm glad you did that. 310 00:15:14,340 --> 00:15:20,670 Um, I mean, uh, I do think if Canada's gonna be nine, I don't think 311 00:15:20,670 --> 00:15:22,260 Australia should be that far down. 312 00:15:22,710 --> 00:15:24,480 Uh, so that's, I think fair. 313 00:15:24,870 --> 00:15:28,500 Um, they are also quite, uh, actually elevated in the 314 00:15:28,500 --> 00:15:29,700 quantitative index as well. 315 00:15:30,285 --> 00:15:34,545 They come in at, let me just see where Australia is. 316 00:15:34,545 --> 00:15:34,935 20th. 317 00:15:35,474 --> 00:15:39,464 They're actually 20th on the geopolitical index that I created. 318 00:15:39,464 --> 00:15:43,425 And just as a reminder, the geopolitical index actually has six factors in it. 319 00:15:44,324 --> 00:15:49,484 Um, it looks at demographics in terms of the pop population, aged 15 to 64. 320 00:15:50,145 --> 00:15:56,175 It has, um, military expenditure imports and arms exports, um, 321 00:15:56,265 --> 00:15:58,155 GDP, primary energy consumption. 322 00:15:58,635 --> 00:16:02,055 So, um, it's, uh, it's a little bit more modified. 323 00:16:02,055 --> 00:16:05,324 So population is actually, uh, looking at dependency ratios, 324 00:16:05,925 --> 00:16:07,665 uh, not just young people. 325 00:16:07,814 --> 00:16:09,015 That's what it focuses on. 326 00:16:09,104 --> 00:16:10,785 Uh, economic relevance. 327 00:16:11,265 --> 00:16:18,015 Um, it's, it looks at basically, um, um, imports. 328 00:16:18,194 --> 00:16:20,925 So the greater, the greater the import share, uh, the 329 00:16:20,925 --> 00:16:22,064 greater the bargaining power. 330 00:16:22,064 --> 00:16:26,145 So to your point, ability to compel behavior by being a consumer market that 331 00:16:26,145 --> 00:16:27,854 obviously benefits the US massively. 332 00:16:28,590 --> 00:16:29,910 Then arms exports. 333 00:16:29,910 --> 00:16:32,250 We don't look at it from a perspective of who has a large 334 00:16:32,250 --> 00:16:33,480 army, because that's irrelevant. 335 00:16:33,720 --> 00:16:35,310 It's more, uh, high tech. 336 00:16:35,580 --> 00:16:40,740 Also, one of the, uh, indicators is r and d spending, uh, which mm-hmm definitely is 337 00:16:40,740 --> 00:16:46,320 the reason that Israel is one spot higher than Australia on my quantitative measure. 338 00:16:46,320 --> 00:16:47,010 So it's 19th. 339 00:16:47,820 --> 00:16:51,660 Um, so just, uh, uh, to your point, I do think that keeping 340 00:16:51,660 --> 00:16:54,690 Israel off is a mistake. 341 00:16:55,830 --> 00:16:59,910 Um, having Argentina as high as it is, I think that's probably the one. 342 00:17:00,000 --> 00:17:01,920 So I, I guess we should just go into analysis. 343 00:17:01,920 --> 00:17:05,490 I mean, what I would say from this Israel not being on the top 20, I 344 00:17:05,490 --> 00:17:08,880 think is a mistake, but it's also a call on the future, which I agree 345 00:17:08,880 --> 00:17:13,410 with you on other countries that we didn't, uh, put here that are on 346 00:17:13,410 --> 00:17:15,569 the quantitative, uh, index Poland. 347 00:17:16,319 --> 00:17:19,589 Um, although mm-hmm I just basically assume that Ukraine will. 348 00:17:19,919 --> 00:17:24,540 Effectively, um, you know, actually overtake Poland on the index. 349 00:17:24,540 --> 00:17:28,109 Ukraine, by the way, is 23rd on my index of quantitative measures. 350 00:17:28,169 --> 00:17:28,679 23rd. 351 00:17:29,219 --> 00:17:29,850 23rd. 352 00:17:29,850 --> 00:17:32,189 So not much lower than Poland. 353 00:17:32,219 --> 00:17:35,520 And I do think that it's gonna benefit massively from both 354 00:17:35,520 --> 00:17:37,050 influx of capital and technology. 355 00:17:37,169 --> 00:17:37,560 Um, 356 00:17:37,649 --> 00:17:38,939 Jacob Shapiro: well, and you could be right in the end, maybe 357 00:17:38,939 --> 00:17:41,729 we get the resuscitation of the Polish Lithuanian Commonwealth, 358 00:17:41,729 --> 00:17:43,290 which Ukraine was a major part of. 359 00:17:43,290 --> 00:17:45,419 So technically like that's one big thing. 360 00:17:45,810 --> 00:17:46,320 Marko Papic: Exactly. 361 00:17:46,709 --> 00:17:49,409 Um, the other countries, I mean, we, we nailed it. 362 00:17:49,409 --> 00:17:53,159 So the ranking on, on the quantitative, uh, mix of indicators. 363 00:17:53,159 --> 00:17:56,879 US first China, second, India, Germany, Russia, France, uk, 364 00:17:56,879 --> 00:17:58,620 seventh obviously slipped. 365 00:17:59,159 --> 00:18:02,250 Uh, Japan, eighth slipped a little bit, but not that much. 366 00:18:03,120 --> 00:18:07,139 Italy, ninth South Korea, 10th, Brazil, 11th, Canada, 12th, 367 00:18:07,139 --> 00:18:08,935 Spain 13th, Indonesia 14th. 368 00:18:08,955 --> 00:18:12,270 So we put him in the top 20, Mexico's 15th on the syndicators. 369 00:18:12,270 --> 00:18:13,560 Saudi Arabia is 16th. 370 00:18:13,620 --> 00:18:17,415 I took Saudi Arabia 13th, so not crazy. 371 00:18:18,149 --> 00:18:19,260 Netherlands is 17th. 372 00:18:19,379 --> 00:18:20,820 Poland is, 18th is missing. 373 00:18:20,850 --> 00:18:22,200 Israel's missing 19th. 374 00:18:22,230 --> 00:18:22,770 Australia. 375 00:18:22,770 --> 00:18:23,220 20th. 376 00:18:23,820 --> 00:18:24,960 Iran is 21st. 377 00:18:25,020 --> 00:18:27,389 So Pakistan is 22nd. 378 00:18:27,389 --> 00:18:28,620 Ukraine is 23rd. 379 00:18:28,620 --> 00:18:29,639 Belgium 24th. 380 00:18:29,790 --> 00:18:30,960 Thailand, 25th. 381 00:18:31,260 --> 00:18:34,350 I do feel like Thailand or Malaysia probably could have 382 00:18:34,350 --> 00:18:35,909 made our list of top 20. 383 00:18:35,909 --> 00:18:38,280 I guess You chose Israel with Singapore? 384 00:18:38,280 --> 00:18:39,240 I chose with Indonesia. 385 00:18:39,300 --> 00:18:39,870 What do you think? 386 00:18:39,870 --> 00:18:41,220 Are we making a mistake? 387 00:18:41,909 --> 00:18:45,240 Jacob Shapiro: I don't think we're making a mistake because Indonesia is the one 388 00:18:45,240 --> 00:18:48,570 that has the, I know we talked earlier about, uh, demographics not being. 389 00:18:49,305 --> 00:18:52,395 Sort of an arbiter of, of, um, of future performance. 390 00:18:52,635 --> 00:18:56,805 But Indonesia's demographics are so good compared to a Thailand, which is an 391 00:18:56,805 --> 00:19:00,885 aging population compared to Malaysia, which is an aging population and also is 392 00:19:00,885 --> 00:19:03,495 extremely overexposed to globalization. 393 00:19:03,525 --> 00:19:07,845 I mean, their dependence on globalized supply chains, uh, is massive. 394 00:19:07,845 --> 00:19:12,915 When you look at trade as a percentage of, of GDP, um, that's not true for Indonesia. 395 00:19:12,915 --> 00:19:14,325 Indonesia is still very early on. 396 00:19:14,325 --> 00:19:17,205 They have been, they, you go back and read World Bank reports 397 00:19:17,205 --> 00:19:18,735 or IMF reports from the 2010s. 398 00:19:18,735 --> 00:19:21,495 Indonesia is the redheaded stepchild because they're resisting 399 00:19:21,495 --> 00:19:22,875 the neoliberal world order. 400 00:19:22,875 --> 00:19:23,835 They're doing all these things. 401 00:19:23,835 --> 00:19:27,855 The World Bank and IMF can't possibly entertain a sound policy. 402 00:19:27,855 --> 00:19:31,785 Like I'm sure the economist was writing articles at the time, lambasting them, uh, 403 00:19:31,815 --> 00:19:33,885 but they were preparing for this world. 404 00:19:33,915 --> 00:19:36,735 Like this is the world that now you look at Indonesia and they're like, 405 00:19:36,735 --> 00:19:38,235 ah, they were sort of forward thinking. 406 00:19:38,235 --> 00:19:40,665 So when you put together all those things, I think Indonesia 407 00:19:40,665 --> 00:19:43,245 is the big in terms of population. 408 00:19:43,755 --> 00:19:47,025 In terms of like, size of economy and resources is the big play. 409 00:19:47,025 --> 00:19:51,285 And Singapore is, uh, in some ways is an interesting one on the list because 410 00:19:51,285 --> 00:19:56,505 it's about, can a very, very small city state exert power in a meaningful way? 411 00:19:56,505 --> 00:20:00,885 And I think Singapore can use AI and automation and relations with China 412 00:20:00,885 --> 00:20:03,705 and financial capital and all these other different things, a stride, 413 00:20:03,705 --> 00:20:07,155 the right of Malacca to have this kind of power over what is gonna be 414 00:20:07,155 --> 00:20:09,135 a completely contested trade zones. 415 00:20:09,135 --> 00:20:13,125 But, you know, if, if Singapore gets into a shooting war with Thailand, 416 00:20:13,155 --> 00:20:15,885 uh, you know, I mean that's not gonna happen, but like, it's gonna be really 417 00:20:15,885 --> 00:20:17,415 hard for Singapore to defend itself. 418 00:20:17,415 --> 00:20:20,055 So it's a much different sort of indicator of power, I think. 419 00:20:21,315 --> 00:20:22,815 Marko Papic: Um, okay, so that's fair. 420 00:20:22,815 --> 00:20:24,915 Singapore was 26th, by the way, on the list. 421 00:20:24,915 --> 00:20:28,605 So even though it's a small country, uh, and gets penalized, uh, in many 422 00:20:28,605 --> 00:20:33,525 ways for demographics, my quantitative indicator actually gave them a lot of. 423 00:20:34,275 --> 00:20:37,305 I think props Switzerland is 27th, by the way. 424 00:20:37,785 --> 00:20:38,775 Um, and I agree with that. 425 00:20:38,775 --> 00:20:40,725 I think it's actually got some really compelling and 426 00:20:40,725 --> 00:20:41,685 interesting things about it. 427 00:20:41,745 --> 00:20:45,825 Um, um, I think if it had retained its neutrality, probably would've 428 00:20:45,825 --> 00:20:46,875 been more interesting to me. 429 00:20:47,505 --> 00:20:52,575 Um, the fact that it has been eroding it, I do think has been a mistake. 430 00:20:52,935 --> 00:20:56,925 Could have maybe ended up on our top 20, had it kind of had, uh, something 431 00:20:56,925 --> 00:20:58,515 unique on the foreign policy front. 432 00:20:58,515 --> 00:21:03,015 Bangladesh is 28th, the country that I really wanted to put on the top 433 00:21:03,045 --> 00:21:05,205 20, but it's really difficult to do. 434 00:21:05,205 --> 00:21:08,055 So, uh, I'm just a huge suite of file. 435 00:21:08,715 --> 00:21:11,835 So, um, Sweden actually comes in the 29th. 436 00:21:12,405 --> 00:21:15,675 Jacob Shapiro: One of the most interesting emails we got was from a Swede who said, 437 00:21:15,675 --> 00:21:19,155 you should consider some kind of Nordic union that Denmark, Norway, Sweden, 438 00:21:19,155 --> 00:21:22,875 maybe Finland will combine together to be their own sort of mini confederation. 439 00:21:22,875 --> 00:21:25,335 And that, that block would be, um, extremely powerful. 440 00:21:25,995 --> 00:21:26,925 I agree with that. 441 00:21:27,285 --> 00:21:27,555 Marko Papic: Yeah. 442 00:21:27,555 --> 00:21:30,015 Let's, let's, let's have a, a group of honorable. 443 00:21:30,389 --> 00:21:31,379 Mentions here. 444 00:21:31,440 --> 00:21:36,240 Uh, I think that Nordic Union, let's put that led by Sweden. 445 00:21:37,050 --> 00:21:37,950 Uh, interesting. 446 00:21:37,950 --> 00:21:40,170 I mean, I take, I did take EMU five. 447 00:21:41,010 --> 00:21:45,899 I did not include, uh, anybody from sort of the Scandinavia slash Nordic world. 448 00:21:46,260 --> 00:21:49,920 I think Israel is definitely an honorable mentioned, uh, I think Poland as well. 449 00:21:50,370 --> 00:21:53,940 Um, Thailand, Malaysia, we didn't really have much of, I mean, I think 450 00:21:53,940 --> 00:21:55,590 both countries have a prospect. 451 00:21:55,590 --> 00:21:59,399 Malaysia's very interesting, particularly if semiconductor, um, 452 00:21:59,460 --> 00:22:02,940 knowhow starts migrating from Taiwan and China to a neutral country. 453 00:22:02,940 --> 00:22:03,720 I think Malaysia. 454 00:22:04,125 --> 00:22:06,765 Should make our honorable mentions. 455 00:22:06,915 --> 00:22:10,725 Um, lemme see, Philippines is at 30 on my quantitative index. 456 00:22:10,815 --> 00:22:11,985 Egypt is 31. 457 00:22:12,525 --> 00:22:14,175 Um, nah, nah, you know. 458 00:22:14,175 --> 00:22:14,385 Yeah. 459 00:22:14,385 --> 00:22:14,730 There's no way. 460 00:22:14,730 --> 00:22:14,805 No way. 461 00:22:15,045 --> 00:22:15,525 No way. 462 00:22:15,525 --> 00:22:17,895 Jacob Shapiro: Like for, for some honorable mentions, like I think 463 00:22:17,895 --> 00:22:20,925 you have to think really outside of the box to, to start adding more. 464 00:22:20,925 --> 00:22:25,485 Like if like we have Brazil and Argentina here, could it be like Mercosur emerges 465 00:22:25,485 --> 00:22:27,945 as some kind of EU light of South America? 466 00:22:27,975 --> 00:22:30,405 Like that could sort of change the rankings and I could see that 467 00:22:30,405 --> 00:22:31,785 happening over the next 30 years. 468 00:22:32,145 --> 00:22:34,485 Really off the beaten path for me would be, um. 469 00:22:35,625 --> 00:22:39,915 Uzbekistan, um, double landlocked country, but it's literally the country that makes 470 00:22:39,915 --> 00:22:41,805 all the stands connect to each other. 471 00:22:41,805 --> 00:22:44,595 And in times where trade has been threatened, like there 472 00:22:44,595 --> 00:22:47,175 was a reason Uzbekistan was at the middle of the Silk Road. 473 00:22:47,235 --> 00:22:47,325 Yep. 474 00:22:47,385 --> 00:22:50,655 So if you did have meaningful conflict in the maritime space or meaningful 475 00:22:50,655 --> 00:22:53,535 volatility to where goods couldn't move there, that's sort of what 476 00:22:53,535 --> 00:22:56,655 China's belt and Road initiative is all about in case, you know, yeah. 477 00:22:56,655 --> 00:23:00,405 Sea lanes break down, can you move things over land if that happens? 478 00:23:00,405 --> 00:23:03,105 Uzbekistan I think is actually placed really well to be a sort 479 00:23:03,105 --> 00:23:06,615 of regional leader in Central Asia to use that, but I think that's 480 00:23:06,615 --> 00:23:08,205 a very sort of speculative play. 481 00:23:08,265 --> 00:23:11,595 Marko Papic: No, I, I think Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, I think that's a great point. 482 00:23:11,955 --> 00:23:14,505 I mean, there's this, uh, in geopolitics for those of you who 483 00:23:14,505 --> 00:23:18,645 want to sort of read more about it, there's this constant battle between 484 00:23:18,645 --> 00:23:21,855 the Mahan and the kinder duality. 485 00:23:22,065 --> 00:23:25,785 You know, these are the two, like the Yin and the Yang, the Sith and the Jedi. 486 00:23:26,445 --> 00:23:28,815 Uh, Mahan is sort of the operating system. 487 00:23:29,865 --> 00:23:32,865 He wrote, uh, Mahan was the, I believe in Admiral. 488 00:23:33,675 --> 00:23:39,045 A naval scholar and he wrote a lot on, uh, the power of the navies and the seas. 489 00:23:39,315 --> 00:23:42,112 Uh, and that is the operating system that the United States of 490 00:23:42,112 --> 00:23:45,285 America operates on, that it, uh, downloaded from the United Kingdom. 491 00:23:46,095 --> 00:23:49,275 Um, the seas are the highways of the world, and if you control them, you can 492 00:23:49,275 --> 00:23:53,265 pretty much show up in front of anybody's capital city and threatened them. 493 00:23:53,925 --> 00:23:57,555 You can also trade, you can control trade routes, but there is an alternative 494 00:23:57,555 --> 00:24:01,635 operating system, which none of us have really taken seriously since 495 00:24:01,635 --> 00:24:06,255 probably Hitler, and it's the me kinder and the me kinder looks at the world 496 00:24:06,345 --> 00:24:09,735 from the perspective of the world island, which is what e erasure is. 497 00:24:09,735 --> 00:24:12,885 So from Ireland to Ka chop cut, there's this world island. 498 00:24:13,965 --> 00:24:18,195 And if you control the world island, you don't have to spend a single cent 499 00:24:18,195 --> 00:24:21,525 on a single ship, like Americans can run around with their, like fancy 500 00:24:21,585 --> 00:24:23,025 schmancy ships, but you don't care. 501 00:24:23,655 --> 00:24:27,615 You've got all the technology, all the consumer markets, and all the natural 502 00:24:27,615 --> 00:24:29,145 resources you would ever really need. 503 00:24:29,175 --> 00:24:30,945 There's nothing that you, Eurasia doesn't have. 504 00:24:31,815 --> 00:24:36,615 And, uh, Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan, if you suddenly just shift your thinking towards 505 00:24:36,615 --> 00:24:40,155 that kind of a kinder operating system, I think Uzbekistan is not a crazy pick. 506 00:24:40,860 --> 00:24:41,100 Jacob Shapiro: Yeah. 507 00:24:41,130 --> 00:24:44,010 Um, there's, there's two others I want to throw on and I'm curious where they are 508 00:24:44,010 --> 00:24:47,430 in your quantitative index because we, I threw in South Africa at the very end. 509 00:24:47,430 --> 00:24:47,490 Yeah. 510 00:24:48,060 --> 00:24:51,210 Um, and, and Africa's hard to, is harder to think about from this 511 00:24:51,210 --> 00:24:52,590 point of, from this perspective. 512 00:24:52,620 --> 00:24:55,800 'cause I think, like my base case is that Africa is probably going 513 00:24:55,800 --> 00:24:57,510 to be dominated by external powers. 514 00:24:57,510 --> 00:25:01,020 Not that African nations are gonna be able to sort of create, uh, 515 00:25:01,050 --> 00:25:02,820 geopolitical power bases of their own. 516 00:25:02,970 --> 00:25:04,230 But let's say I'm wrong about that. 517 00:25:04,230 --> 00:25:07,230 And let's say that some of these African nations are able to congeal 518 00:25:07,230 --> 00:25:09,030 into nations and sort of project power. 519 00:25:09,360 --> 00:25:11,970 Um, two on my list, one would be Ethiopia. 520 00:25:12,420 --> 00:25:12,780 Um. 521 00:25:12,815 --> 00:25:17,195 On the horn, really young, uh, motivated population. 522 00:25:17,465 --> 00:25:20,555 Uh, you mentioned Egypt, like the Nile begins in Ethiopia and there's already 523 00:25:20,555 --> 00:25:22,445 been tension between Ethiopia and Egypt. 524 00:25:22,445 --> 00:25:25,415 But so I say that because Ethiopia is damning the Nile, it could 525 00:25:25,415 --> 00:25:27,935 literally control everything down river from the Nile. 526 00:25:27,995 --> 00:25:30,635 And if you have control of the Nile, you like, generally 527 00:25:30,635 --> 00:25:33,875 speaking, civilizationally, you've been a pretty powerful entity. 528 00:25:33,875 --> 00:25:35,225 And you know, they can project to the horn. 529 00:25:35,225 --> 00:25:36,335 Now they're technically landlocked. 530 00:25:36,335 --> 00:25:38,675 They're having problems with Eritrea and some of these others. 531 00:25:38,915 --> 00:25:41,645 Also, they just fought a civil war in which hundreds of thousands have died. 532 00:25:41,645 --> 00:25:44,525 Like there's so many problems with them, but they're one that I think deserves. 533 00:25:45,195 --> 00:25:47,085 Honorable mention, or at least put them on the watch list. 534 00:25:47,475 --> 00:25:50,655 The other one is, is less a country, although I have a country 535 00:25:50,655 --> 00:25:51,795 that might benefit from this. 536 00:25:51,795 --> 00:25:55,215 But, you know, going back a hundred years, people have recognized 537 00:25:55,215 --> 00:25:58,575 the potential of what is today the Democratic Republic of Congo. 538 00:25:58,755 --> 00:25:58,845 Mm-hmm. 539 00:25:59,085 --> 00:26:03,495 Just from the perspective of population, resources, water, where it is in 540 00:26:03,495 --> 00:26:04,635 Africa, all these other things. 541 00:26:04,635 --> 00:26:08,265 Now, of course, um, the DRC, what is today, the DRC, like, it's 542 00:26:08,265 --> 00:26:09,975 the subject of heart of darkness. 543 00:26:10,095 --> 00:26:12,735 It is the subject of all of these d it's, you know, kingly, upholds, 544 00:26:12,735 --> 00:26:14,835 ghost, all these different terrible things have happened there. 545 00:26:14,835 --> 00:26:18,645 And that contin, uh, didn't even mention the, the Rwanda genocide and the second 546 00:26:18,645 --> 00:26:22,335 African war in the ni uh, world War in the 1990s, like one of the most deadly 547 00:26:22,335 --> 00:26:23,985 conflicts in the history of human beings. 548 00:26:24,405 --> 00:26:27,975 Um, like all of that is sort of in there and it's happening again today. 549 00:26:27,975 --> 00:26:30,465 Like there is restiveness and fighting. 550 00:26:31,020 --> 00:26:34,139 Rebels running all over the place, Rwanda, arming rebels, and maybe even 551 00:26:34,139 --> 00:26:37,290 Rwanda military presence on the ground in the eastern parts of the DRC. 552 00:26:37,649 --> 00:26:40,800 So the, the country that's on my watch list is actually not the DRC because 553 00:26:40,800 --> 00:26:43,830 I'm, I'm, I doubt that the DRC is gonna find that national footing. 554 00:26:44,250 --> 00:26:48,210 Uh, but I think Rwanda deserves an honorable mention just in the way that 555 00:26:48,210 --> 00:26:49,920 it's changed in the last 30 years. 556 00:26:50,159 --> 00:26:53,370 It's military and, you know, security capacity. 557 00:26:53,370 --> 00:26:56,940 Some of its investment in like, whether it's science, like they have some 558 00:26:56,940 --> 00:26:59,580 interesting things going from them and they have shown the ability to 559 00:26:59,580 --> 00:27:02,250 affect things in countries around them. 560 00:27:02,310 --> 00:27:04,200 Um, that's a great point in a way that Israel has. 561 00:27:04,200 --> 00:27:06,480 So they're on my list too, on honorable Mitch. 562 00:27:06,750 --> 00:27:09,540 Marko Papic: I like, I like the technology aspect of Rwanda because that's true. 563 00:27:09,540 --> 00:27:14,790 They actually do have, um, a burgeoning tech industry and your 564 00:27:14,790 --> 00:27:16,770 definition of being com able to compel. 565 00:27:16,770 --> 00:27:20,490 So, uh, in terms of where all of these countries are in the indicator. 566 00:27:20,580 --> 00:27:26,010 Um, so first of all, as I mentioned in the first podcast episode, there is something. 567 00:27:27,015 --> 00:27:31,725 Called the Composite Index of National Capability, the CINC, it 568 00:27:31,725 --> 00:27:35,385 was created by political scientists at the height of, uh, the Cold War. 569 00:27:35,925 --> 00:27:36,045 Mm-hmm. 570 00:27:36,645 --> 00:27:40,605 And that one is much more like a Cold War era index. 571 00:27:40,605 --> 00:27:46,965 It looks at, um, uh, total population, urban population, iron in steel 572 00:27:46,965 --> 00:27:50,805 production, energy consumption, military personnel, and military expenditure. 573 00:27:51,800 --> 00:27:54,255 And so it's very much, I think, old school. 574 00:27:54,435 --> 00:27:58,875 I modified that with my own, which emphasizes things like military exports. 575 00:27:58,875 --> 00:27:59,205 Why? 576 00:27:59,205 --> 00:28:03,045 Because that's a way to show that you have technological capability, that 577 00:28:03,045 --> 00:28:07,545 you have actual, you know, ability to sell something that's sophisticated, 578 00:28:07,575 --> 00:28:09,525 not just buy it 'cause you're big. 579 00:28:10,155 --> 00:28:13,065 But the reason I mentioned this is that there, there are some African 580 00:28:13,065 --> 00:28:17,835 countries in this one that doesn't penalize you for just, uh, not 581 00:28:17,835 --> 00:28:19,065 being technologically capable. 582 00:28:19,065 --> 00:28:22,995 So Nigeria is actually 21st, the Congo's 35th, you know, 583 00:28:22,995 --> 00:28:24,735 to your point, Sudan is 38th. 584 00:28:25,815 --> 00:28:29,055 South Africa's 30th Rwanda's on neither one. 585 00:28:29,805 --> 00:28:34,215 Um, but I think that that's a really nuanced pick. 586 00:28:34,215 --> 00:28:35,715 So I think I like that one. 587 00:28:35,745 --> 00:28:38,205 Ethiopia is also not on either one, which is interesting. 588 00:28:38,265 --> 00:28:39,135 Uzbekistan, is it? 589 00:28:39,315 --> 00:28:41,115 But I I get your Uzbekistan point. 590 00:28:41,985 --> 00:28:46,845 Um, if I wanted to add one, I think it would be the United Arab Emirates. 591 00:28:47,265 --> 00:28:52,335 And the reason I say that is because you, you mentioned Singapore as a potential 592 00:28:53,085 --> 00:28:56,775 place where AI could really play a role, but I think UAE is probably the one 593 00:28:56,775 --> 00:29:01,455 country that is potentially going to have the biggest role in AI development. 594 00:29:01,455 --> 00:29:04,905 And you saw President Trump's trip to the Middle East. 595 00:29:04,965 --> 00:29:08,325 He was followed by a lot of people from the AI community and they 596 00:29:08,325 --> 00:29:13,665 selled a lot of deals, including with the UAE company, um, which is 597 00:29:13,665 --> 00:29:16,815 a, uh, front runner in some of this. 598 00:29:16,875 --> 00:29:20,505 Uh, this is the G 42 artificial intelligence company 599 00:29:20,565 --> 00:29:21,855 headquartered in Abu Dhabi. 600 00:29:23,355 --> 00:29:23,985 So why. 601 00:29:25,110 --> 00:29:29,940 Because UAE has this very interesting mix of small population, large capital 602 00:29:29,940 --> 00:29:33,840 pool, and an expat population that no one's going to cry about if they 603 00:29:33,840 --> 00:29:36,870 all get fired due to AI developments. 604 00:29:37,440 --> 00:29:41,610 So when you think about very powerful lobbies in America, like American Medical 605 00:29:41,610 --> 00:29:43,470 Association is extremely difficult. 606 00:29:43,980 --> 00:29:46,860 You try replacing doctors with ai, good luck with that. 607 00:29:47,550 --> 00:29:48,570 It's not gonna work. 608 00:29:48,659 --> 00:29:51,540 You know, and it's not, not because you and I, like Jacob and Marco 609 00:29:51,540 --> 00:29:53,610 have a problem with AI doctors. 610 00:29:53,610 --> 00:29:56,190 It's because doctors have a problem with AI doctors, same 611 00:29:56,190 --> 00:29:58,740 with pilots or truck drivers. 612 00:29:59,250 --> 00:30:03,600 Um, there are a lot of, you know, very vested interests, political 613 00:30:03,600 --> 00:30:06,659 interests that are going to prevent AI from being deployed fully. 614 00:30:07,200 --> 00:30:12,300 But a place like the UAE, were pretty much accountants, doctors, pediatricians, 615 00:30:12,330 --> 00:30:17,129 you know, like you name it, are pretty much all expats, non-citizens. 616 00:30:17,159 --> 00:30:20,460 They can all be fired tomorrow if a GI was to be developed. 617 00:30:21,030 --> 00:30:23,970 So I actually think that of all the countries on the planet, UAE 618 00:30:23,970 --> 00:30:28,680 will be the first to deploy full AI systems in government and in 619 00:30:28,680 --> 00:30:30,480 education, in medicine and so on. 620 00:30:30,480 --> 00:30:32,880 So that's my, uh, honorable mention. 621 00:30:32,880 --> 00:30:34,680 So we have a good group, Nordic Union. 622 00:30:34,680 --> 00:30:34,890 No, and 623 00:30:34,890 --> 00:30:37,080 Jacob Shapiro: I, and I just wanna continue on that too 'cause 624 00:30:37,080 --> 00:30:38,730 I, I think it belongs there. 625 00:30:38,730 --> 00:30:42,930 And this is like Singapore was my stand-in for thinking about like, are city states 626 00:30:42,930 --> 00:30:46,440 even possible like in the future and should they be on this list in general? 627 00:30:46,440 --> 00:30:49,830 Because when you think about like city states today, like I count the UAE 'cause 628 00:30:49,830 --> 00:30:51,840 of Dubai, but it's a really small list. 629 00:30:52,110 --> 00:30:55,650 Um, it's Singapore, Monaco, the Vatican. 630 00:30:55,710 --> 00:30:59,160 If the Vatican ever wanted to like get like more muscular again, like that 631 00:30:59,160 --> 00:31:00,600 would actually be a really sleeper pick. 632 00:31:00,600 --> 00:31:02,550 Like the return of the Catholic, uh, the 633 00:31:02,550 --> 00:31:03,630 Marko Papic: papal states. 634 00:31:03,840 --> 00:31:06,570 Jacob Shapiro: Yeah, the papal states back, uh, with, you know, their, their 635 00:31:06,570 --> 00:31:10,050 billion Catholics or however many there are of them, uh, sort of running around. 636 00:31:10,230 --> 00:31:13,410 But I, I wonder if one of the things that's missing on our list, well, first 637 00:31:13,410 --> 00:31:15,060 of all, I wonder if I'm right that. 638 00:31:15,389 --> 00:31:18,570 Geopolitics, the way that we're heading towards Multipolarity is gonna lead 639 00:31:18,570 --> 00:31:23,010 to the rise of New city states or the empowerment of city states in 640 00:31:23,010 --> 00:31:24,330 a way that it hasn't in the past. 641 00:31:24,450 --> 00:31:27,780 And then I wonder if what's missing from our list is some of these city states, 642 00:31:28,020 --> 00:31:32,580 like the, the, this is, this is not a well thought out analysis yet, which good? 643 00:31:32,639 --> 00:31:35,220 You're coming here for entertainment, not for well thought out analysis. 644 00:31:35,580 --> 00:31:38,190 Uh, but like, when I think about the bearishness of the UK, for 645 00:31:38,190 --> 00:31:41,550 example, uh, that bearishness with the UK was always coupled with, but 646 00:31:41,550 --> 00:31:43,409 London will be extremely powerful. 647 00:31:43,440 --> 00:31:46,830 So if the UK did fall apart, would London sort of become a city 648 00:31:46,830 --> 00:31:49,860 state or like would like around England or something like that? 649 00:31:49,860 --> 00:31:53,909 Like, could you have the rise of some of these different, uh, mega cities turn 650 00:31:53,909 --> 00:31:55,770 into like city states of their own right. 651 00:31:55,770 --> 00:31:58,230 And might they affect the map of the world in different ways in the future? 652 00:31:58,230 --> 00:31:58,590 I don't know. 653 00:31:58,590 --> 00:32:01,530 I it's, it's a, it's a very speculative concept that, as you can 654 00:32:01,530 --> 00:32:03,780 tell, I haven't developed fully yet, but it's in the back of my head. 655 00:32:03,929 --> 00:32:04,500 Marko Papic: Our Congress too. 656 00:32:04,504 --> 00:32:05,760 No, no, I, I've thought about this. 657 00:32:05,760 --> 00:32:08,879 I think city states is one, uh, the other one is also regional. 658 00:32:08,879 --> 00:32:10,110 So the Nordic Union. 659 00:32:10,544 --> 00:32:14,655 Points that are, you know, um, one of our listeners pointed out 660 00:32:14,655 --> 00:32:16,215 is very, very well thought out. 661 00:32:16,995 --> 00:32:23,865 In other words, a multipolar distribution of power does create a need for scale. 662 00:32:24,524 --> 00:32:28,485 So in a unipolar world, you can be a tiny country, you know, you can be 663 00:32:28,514 --> 00:32:32,054 Slovenia and be extremely successful because hey, Americans are in charge. 664 00:32:32,145 --> 00:32:36,915 Just follow the rules and you know, you'll be fine in a bipolar world, you can be a 665 00:32:36,915 --> 00:32:38,625 tiny country, just pick the right side. 666 00:32:39,165 --> 00:32:39,315 Mm-hmm. 667 00:32:40,185 --> 00:32:43,185 But in a multipolar world, like scale starts to matter. 668 00:32:43,185 --> 00:32:46,905 And so I do think that one of the failures maybe of our 669 00:32:46,905 --> 00:32:49,095 ranking, we do think of scale. 670 00:32:49,485 --> 00:32:53,205 Like, I like Canada 'cause it's huge and it can import another 40 million people. 671 00:32:53,355 --> 00:32:53,985 Like done. 672 00:32:54,495 --> 00:32:55,905 And suddenly it's a global power. 673 00:32:56,445 --> 00:32:57,405 But like, okay. 674 00:32:58,155 --> 00:33:02,145 But we did not, and you know, we picked Indonesia but we didn't pick like 675 00:33:02,145 --> 00:33:06,375 Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand corridor, something like, you know, we didn't 676 00:33:06,375 --> 00:33:08,715 get like innovative on that point. 677 00:33:08,715 --> 00:33:09,375 And I think that. 678 00:33:09,764 --> 00:33:11,835 That might be something to think about. 679 00:33:11,835 --> 00:33:13,695 Maybe there will be more regionalization now. 680 00:33:14,565 --> 00:33:18,105 Jacob Shapiro: Well, and and there's also like to, to your point, like, um, 681 00:33:18,195 --> 00:33:22,215 based on a podcast I did earlier this week, like a really out there, um, 682 00:33:22,215 --> 00:33:28,245 selection would've been instead of China, like Huawei or Microsoft, like, there 683 00:33:28,274 --> 00:33:32,925 is this narrative out there of techno fascism, techno overlords companies 684 00:33:32,925 --> 00:33:34,635 that will become stronger than nations. 685 00:33:34,635 --> 00:33:36,075 And there's precedent for that, right? 686 00:33:36,075 --> 00:33:38,774 Like before there was the British Empire, there's the British East India company. 687 00:33:38,835 --> 00:33:38,955 Mm-hmm. 688 00:33:39,195 --> 00:33:40,725 The Dutch story is like that too. 689 00:33:41,085 --> 00:33:44,895 So we may be missing, like with the combo of technology and, and some of 690 00:33:44,895 --> 00:33:49,455 these other things like the rise of companies or non-state actors that 691 00:33:49,455 --> 00:33:51,465 affect the world in, in different ways. 692 00:33:51,465 --> 00:33:52,935 'cause there's none of that on our list right now. 693 00:33:53,205 --> 00:33:53,835 Marko Papic: There isn't. 694 00:33:53,835 --> 00:33:55,035 And I love it. 695 00:33:55,155 --> 00:33:56,175 I I love your point. 696 00:33:56,175 --> 00:33:59,475 You know, Hudson Bay Company basically created candidate because 697 00:33:59,475 --> 00:34:01,125 people in Europe wanted beaver hats. 698 00:34:02,115 --> 00:34:02,925 Like, there you go. 699 00:34:03,165 --> 00:34:07,004 You know, which is why beaver should be on the flag, not, not a maple leaf. 700 00:34:07,095 --> 00:34:07,725 Um, now. 701 00:34:09,000 --> 00:34:12,930 I wanna do one final thing before, uh, I hand over, uh, the MCTU. 702 00:34:12,930 --> 00:34:17,730 I want you to take a look at this list and I want you to make one change. 703 00:34:17,940 --> 00:34:20,880 Now that we've had some time to digest, take some criticism in. 704 00:34:21,300 --> 00:34:25,650 You can either switch two of your picks, you know, you can basically trade them. 705 00:34:25,980 --> 00:34:28,380 Like, let's say you can say Turkey at four is too high, 706 00:34:28,595 --> 00:34:30,060 high and South Africa's too low. 707 00:34:30,060 --> 00:34:31,350 So you like, flip them. 708 00:34:32,130 --> 00:34:35,520 Or you can take one of your picks off the board and put someone else on 709 00:34:35,520 --> 00:34:39,750 like, you made a compelling case for Israel or Uzbekistan or Nordic unit. 710 00:34:40,440 --> 00:34:41,850 So either one of those. 711 00:34:42,420 --> 00:34:45,000 Jacob Shapiro: Yeah, I, I think we need to do a little more postmortem 712 00:34:45,030 --> 00:34:46,560 on, on the list itself too. 713 00:34:46,590 --> 00:34:47,670 'cause you might think that. 714 00:34:48,674 --> 00:34:52,275 In the moment I was most insecure about my Russia pick at number six. 715 00:34:52,695 --> 00:34:54,824 But I actually feel pretty good about my Russia pick and 716 00:34:54,824 --> 00:34:56,264 we might wanna spar on that. 717 00:34:56,324 --> 00:34:58,755 And like, I'm, I'm looking at just my choices here too. 718 00:34:58,755 --> 00:35:01,755 Like, I, I wanna get into an argument argument with you about Canada. 719 00:35:01,755 --> 00:35:02,715 Like, I just don't see it. 720 00:35:02,715 --> 00:35:05,295 I want to, I want to hate on Canada right now 'cause I don't think it 721 00:35:05,295 --> 00:35:08,235 belongs like, because certainly not in the top 10, and I'm not even sure it 722 00:35:08,235 --> 00:35:10,515 belongs on this list to be quite frank. 723 00:35:11,055 --> 00:35:14,654 Um, but I, I, when I look at the list, I think my biggest mistake, 724 00:35:15,105 --> 00:35:18,435 um, is that Japan is likely too low. 725 00:35:18,825 --> 00:35:23,355 Um, and it should probably be slotted like Japan should probably have been, I. I 726 00:35:23,355 --> 00:35:27,615 don't know if it's before Russia or after Russia, but it's definitely in the top 10. 727 00:35:27,615 --> 00:35:28,485 It doesn't belong there. 728 00:35:28,485 --> 00:35:29,775 Sort of languishing at the bottom. 729 00:35:29,925 --> 00:35:33,375 And the UK too, like was, was a little bit of a blind spot for me. 730 00:35:33,585 --> 00:35:36,705 I like some of those honorable mentions, but they're too speculative. 731 00:35:36,705 --> 00:35:39,945 Like I like them on the bubble and I see that they have potential to jump 732 00:35:39,945 --> 00:35:44,775 up, but you know, like an Ethiopia pick or Rwanda pick, um, Nordic Union pick. 733 00:35:44,775 --> 00:35:47,715 Like, I like them but there's not enough reality there for, for me to do it. 734 00:35:47,715 --> 00:35:51,405 But if I had to pick one, like I would boost Japan, probably five or six slots. 735 00:35:51,900 --> 00:35:52,815 Marko Papic: Do you wanna do that? 736 00:35:53,745 --> 00:35:56,535 Jacob Shapiro: Yeah, so I think I'll, like, for my picks, just imagine I'm 737 00:35:56,535 --> 00:36:01,215 picking Japan right after Russia, so everything else gets bumped down. 738 00:36:01,665 --> 00:36:05,385 Marko Papic: Well why not flip Iran for Japan? 739 00:36:07,455 --> 00:36:07,935 Jacob Shapiro: Well, yeah. 740 00:36:07,935 --> 00:36:11,385 Well so I, I, 'cause I want Brazil ahead of Iran so I would, I would flip 741 00:36:11,475 --> 00:36:14,325 Japan and Brazil, if that makes sense. 742 00:36:14,325 --> 00:36:16,095 And then flip Brazil ahead of Iran. 743 00:36:17,100 --> 00:36:18,240 Marko Papic: You can only flip one. 744 00:36:18,810 --> 00:36:19,200 Jacob Shapiro: I know. 745 00:36:19,200 --> 00:36:20,129 I can only flip one. 746 00:36:20,129 --> 00:36:23,220 So, uh, well, Brazil, I can do whatever we want. 747 00:36:23,220 --> 00:36:26,640 We're making, we are the commissioners of this draft. 748 00:36:26,790 --> 00:36:26,879 Okay. 749 00:36:26,879 --> 00:36:27,540 So you want 750 00:36:27,540 --> 00:36:28,410 Marko Papic: Japan where 751 00:36:29,069 --> 00:36:30,600 Jacob Shapiro: I just, oh, Nico Harrison just called. 752 00:36:30,600 --> 00:36:32,250 He said, I'm allowed to do whatever I want. 753 00:36:32,250 --> 00:36:34,980 And as a, as, as a, as a thank you for that. 754 00:36:34,980 --> 00:36:37,080 I will get the first pick in the draft next year. 755 00:36:37,080 --> 00:36:38,069 Thank you for that, Nico. 756 00:36:38,069 --> 00:36:39,540 I really appreciate you watching my back. 757 00:36:40,020 --> 00:36:42,060 Um, let's just do that to keep it simple. 758 00:36:42,060 --> 00:36:42,990 So I play by the rules. 759 00:36:42,990 --> 00:36:45,480 I'm gonna, I'm gonna switch Japan and Brazil. 760 00:36:46,290 --> 00:36:47,009 Marko Papic: Japan and Brazil. 761 00:36:47,490 --> 00:36:47,700 Yeah. 762 00:36:48,000 --> 00:36:48,450 Oh, interesting. 763 00:36:48,450 --> 00:36:48,750 Okay. 764 00:36:49,950 --> 00:36:51,690 So Japan and then Brazil. 765 00:36:51,690 --> 00:36:51,930 Alright. 766 00:36:53,004 --> 00:36:54,025 Jacob Shapiro: No, no, no, no, no, no. 767 00:36:54,025 --> 00:36:55,859 I, I have, I have to switch Japan and Iran. 768 00:36:55,890 --> 00:36:56,190 Sorry. 769 00:36:56,190 --> 00:36:57,029 I'll switch and I, that's what I think. 770 00:36:57,029 --> 00:36:57,359 Yeah, 771 00:36:57,365 --> 00:36:57,705 Marko Papic: yeah, yeah, yeah. 772 00:36:57,750 --> 00:37:01,020 No, but that makes sense because then Brazil remains ahead of Iran. 773 00:37:01,350 --> 00:37:01,560 Yeah. 774 00:37:01,980 --> 00:37:06,060 You're just putting, you know, Iran 14, it's still a controversial 775 00:37:06,060 --> 00:37:07,560 pick, I think, and it retains that. 776 00:37:07,560 --> 00:37:09,600 I, I picked Argentina way too high. 777 00:37:09,665 --> 00:37:11,100 I I thought you were gonna take it. 778 00:37:11,759 --> 00:37:12,120 Jacob Shapiro: Hmm. 779 00:37:12,330 --> 00:37:12,870 Marko Papic: Um. 780 00:37:13,410 --> 00:37:14,370 So I picked him 11th. 781 00:37:14,370 --> 00:37:15,660 I think that was kinda ludicrous. 782 00:37:15,720 --> 00:37:17,310 I'm gonna switch Indonesia. 783 00:37:17,310 --> 00:37:20,040 Oh, I'm gonna put Indonesia in the 784 00:37:22,560 --> 00:37:30,330 11th spot and I'm gonna bump, um, gonna bump Argentina down to 17th. 785 00:37:30,359 --> 00:37:32,759 It's still ahead of Mexico, which I feel comfortable with. 786 00:37:33,359 --> 00:37:37,440 Um, but it's below South Africa now and Ukraine and that's okay. 787 00:37:37,560 --> 00:37:38,730 And it's below Iran. 788 00:37:38,730 --> 00:37:42,299 So basically Iran and Argentina, we kind of took them down a couple of 789 00:37:42,299 --> 00:37:46,710 notches because they are speculative and we're expecting a lot of things 790 00:37:46,710 --> 00:37:48,569 to go right in order for them. 791 00:37:48,569 --> 00:37:50,910 So I think it's fine that they're a little bit, you know, down. 792 00:37:51,629 --> 00:37:53,490 Jacob Shapiro: Um, yeah, and I, I'm very bullish. 793 00:37:53,490 --> 00:37:56,879 Brazil, like my bullish, the level at which I took Brazil indicates to 794 00:37:56,879 --> 00:37:59,490 you that I'm actually very negative Argentina, not necessarily from a 795 00:37:59,490 --> 00:38:00,810 market or investment perspective. 796 00:38:00,810 --> 00:38:03,569 I'm actually very optimistic about Argentina from that perspective. 797 00:38:03,569 --> 00:38:06,660 But from a power projection perspective, I think South America 798 00:38:06,660 --> 00:38:10,140 is Brazil's, and I think it's either gonna be Brazil as a regional power 799 00:38:10,350 --> 00:38:12,089 or some kind of regional union. 800 00:38:12,435 --> 00:38:14,655 Or China or somebody else is gonna dominate it. 801 00:38:14,655 --> 00:38:18,975 Like I don't see that Argentina is advanced enough at this state with where 802 00:38:18,975 --> 00:38:22,545 we are with multipolar competition to be a South American regional power. 803 00:38:22,545 --> 00:38:24,885 Now, maybe they can make up a lot of ground. 804 00:38:25,365 --> 00:38:28,245 Um, and, you know, certainly Melay has done some interesting 805 00:38:28,245 --> 00:38:29,865 things from a reform perspective. 806 00:38:29,865 --> 00:38:30,825 But, uh, I don't know. 807 00:38:30,825 --> 00:38:34,005 I need somebody who's not, uh, channeling his strategies from his dead 808 00:38:34,005 --> 00:38:37,635 dog before I, I start getting really excited about a country's capacity to 809 00:38:37,635 --> 00:38:39,195 do things geopolitically in the world. 810 00:38:39,825 --> 00:38:42,915 Marko Papic: I think what's interesting about this is, uh, yeah, I mean, 811 00:38:42,915 --> 00:38:45,915 I think, uh, I think that's fair. 812 00:38:45,915 --> 00:38:50,415 And I think Mexico gets penalized in many ways because it's next to America, as 813 00:38:50,415 --> 00:38:52,750 Mexicans will always point out, you know. 814 00:38:53,430 --> 00:38:55,530 Uh, if they were anywhere else in the world, I think 815 00:38:55,530 --> 00:38:56,940 Mexico would be more powerful. 816 00:38:56,940 --> 00:38:57,540 And that's true. 817 00:38:57,900 --> 00:39:01,920 And similarly, Argentina has appropriately now come down relative to Brazil. 818 00:39:02,580 --> 00:39:03,060 Um, okay. 819 00:39:03,060 --> 00:39:04,950 So I'm, I'm ready to defend Canada. 820 00:39:04,950 --> 00:39:07,560 If you wanna, if you wanna take on the challenge, give it, give it to me. 821 00:39:07,620 --> 00:39:07,800 Yeah. 822 00:39:07,800 --> 00:39:08,010 And, 823 00:39:08,165 --> 00:39:10,560 Jacob Shapiro: and, and, uh, well, and just before we take on Canada, 824 00:39:10,590 --> 00:39:13,650 'cause, 'cause Mexico and Canada are sort of two sides of the same coin, 825 00:39:13,950 --> 00:39:17,220 like Canada, well I guess you could make this argument for Canada too. 826 00:39:17,520 --> 00:39:20,520 Mexico like does have Central America. 827 00:39:21,165 --> 00:39:22,604 Where it could project power. 828 00:39:22,604 --> 00:39:26,745 If Mexico could ever like, get control of cartels and be responsible for 829 00:39:26,745 --> 00:39:31,274 regional security and project power down all the way through Panama, uh, 830 00:39:31,274 --> 00:39:34,754 and sort of be a leader of the Latin American world in North America, 831 00:39:34,754 --> 00:39:38,174 like that there's, there are roots for them to develop their own power. 832 00:39:38,174 --> 00:39:39,075 They've just never done that. 833 00:39:39,075 --> 00:39:41,294 Everything has been northward facing for obvious reasons. 834 00:39:41,294 --> 00:39:43,814 So over a 30 year time horizon, is that something they could do? 835 00:39:44,265 --> 00:39:45,435 Like Yes, and that's possible. 836 00:39:45,435 --> 00:39:46,274 And same with Canada. 837 00:39:46,274 --> 00:39:49,455 Like I guess if, if you're making the positive Canada argument, you can talk 838 00:39:49,455 --> 00:39:53,984 about, uh, the polar ice cap melting and Canada being the king of the Arctic 839 00:39:53,984 --> 00:39:56,895 and you know, the Arctic is the new Mediterranean and Canada is one of the 840 00:39:56,895 --> 00:39:58,604 powers that is gonna benefit most from it. 841 00:39:59,205 --> 00:40:00,134 Uh, but I don't know. 842 00:40:00,134 --> 00:40:00,975 I'm just not buying it. 843 00:40:01,064 --> 00:40:04,274 It seems to me that I, you know, I think that, uh, please separate. 844 00:40:04,935 --> 00:40:09,015 Uh, our president's, uh, demeaning attitude towards Canada, 845 00:40:09,015 --> 00:40:10,035 from what I'm about to say. 846 00:40:10,065 --> 00:40:13,665 'cause I don't think Canada should become the 51st state, but Canada is 847 00:40:13,875 --> 00:40:15,975 woefully dependent on the United States. 848 00:40:15,975 --> 00:40:18,225 Nobody gives a shit what Canada says. 849 00:40:18,255 --> 00:40:20,325 Think about all the things that have happened to them 850 00:40:20,325 --> 00:40:21,525 in the last couple of years. 851 00:40:21,705 --> 00:40:25,965 China kidnapped their people didn't give like, whatever, like nobody 852 00:40:25,965 --> 00:40:27,525 actually helped them or did anything. 853 00:40:27,765 --> 00:40:30,795 They picked a fight with Saudi Arabia over things like women's rights. 854 00:40:30,795 --> 00:40:33,765 Saudi Arabia was like, cool, we're not gonna trade with you anymore. 855 00:40:33,765 --> 00:40:36,315 And like, just like, go away until you apologize. 856 00:40:36,315 --> 00:40:37,605 And eventually they had to apologize. 857 00:40:37,935 --> 00:40:40,995 You know, United States wants to pick a trade war with, with them. 858 00:40:41,055 --> 00:40:42,285 They're, they try to fight for it. 859 00:40:42,285 --> 00:40:43,365 United States doesn't care. 860 00:40:43,365 --> 00:40:45,495 Literally the leader of the United States is like, great. 861 00:40:45,645 --> 00:40:49,185 So my best offer is that you just become part of our country. 862 00:40:49,215 --> 00:40:50,325 How, how's that for you? 863 00:40:50,325 --> 00:40:53,655 And the best we can do is like, you know, globalist Mark Carney coming 864 00:40:53,655 --> 00:40:56,145 in and saying like, no, I'm really gonna do, like, be tough with them. 865 00:40:56,655 --> 00:40:59,295 Um, like, okay, yes, they can immigrate a lot of, they can 866 00:40:59,535 --> 00:41:00,885 welcome a lot of immigrants. 867 00:41:01,440 --> 00:41:04,350 They also have lots of fault lines within the society itself. 868 00:41:04,650 --> 00:41:08,970 Like, uh, we've got Quebec, we've got, you know, murmurings in the 869 00:41:08,970 --> 00:41:11,940 west that, you know, Alberta will break off some of these other things. 870 00:41:11,940 --> 00:41:15,390 Like, it, it just, like, it, it doesn't look to me like a coherent power that's 871 00:41:15,390 --> 00:41:18,089 gonna project power in any meaningful way. 872 00:41:18,089 --> 00:41:21,359 They're gonna be tied to the United States, um, for the long run. 873 00:41:21,359 --> 00:41:25,680 And I don't see a, a world in which, you know, China, like, imagine this is 20 874 00:41:25,680 --> 00:41:30,150 years from now, is China gonna be afraid of kidnapping some Canadian diplomats 875 00:41:30,210 --> 00:41:31,920 because of what Canada's gonna do to them? 876 00:41:32,730 --> 00:41:36,600 Like, no, like Canada, like China's still gonna kidnap their diplomats. 877 00:41:37,140 --> 00:41:39,359 Marko Papic: Well, I mean, I think that's, you know, the, the way the 878 00:41:39,359 --> 00:41:43,890 trade value, uh, ranking works in the basketball world where Bill Simmons 879 00:41:43,890 --> 00:41:49,020 does it, is that you would not trade somebody below for somebody on top. 880 00:41:50,580 --> 00:41:50,670 Mm-hmm. 881 00:41:50,910 --> 00:41:55,020 So, you know, I mean, it's, it, it's, I don't think China would 882 00:41:55,020 --> 00:42:00,569 care about Japanese diplomats being kidnapped or businesses or. 883 00:42:01,110 --> 00:42:01,830 Singapore, right? 884 00:42:01,835 --> 00:42:01,980 No, no. 885 00:42:01,980 --> 00:42:02,100 I, 886 00:42:02,610 --> 00:42:05,610 Jacob Shapiro: I think they would, I think they would with Japan, and I think they 887 00:42:05,610 --> 00:42:07,260 would, I think Singapore, yes, I would. 888 00:42:07,320 --> 00:42:08,400 I would trade them with all of them. 889 00:42:08,520 --> 00:42:10,230 I think there's two different things here, and this is something that 890 00:42:10,230 --> 00:42:11,520 you and I talked about before. 891 00:42:11,790 --> 00:42:15,600 If I'm China and I'm drafting which countries I want as allies, like if 892 00:42:15,600 --> 00:42:19,560 we just put all politics aside and I just want to take pure pieces off the 893 00:42:19,560 --> 00:42:22,920 board to build some kind of Chinese LED alliance that allows me to have a 894 00:42:22,920 --> 00:42:27,150 Chinese LED world order, Canada would be very close to the top of that list. 895 00:42:27,480 --> 00:42:27,630 Right? 896 00:42:27,630 --> 00:42:29,550 'cause they are a really crucial ally. 897 00:42:29,550 --> 00:42:32,220 And for the United States too, they have to be really at the top of that list. 898 00:42:32,220 --> 00:42:36,360 So I think as like as value is a partner, Canada's really high. 899 00:42:36,630 --> 00:42:40,500 But if we're just talking about like Canada's ability to shape the world 900 00:42:40,500 --> 00:42:44,970 around it and project power, like I don't think it has any juice there whatsoever. 901 00:42:44,970 --> 00:42:48,840 Like I would put it, like I would trade Iran, I would trade Singapore, 902 00:42:49,020 --> 00:42:52,470 I would trade Saudi Arabia, and you know, I'm not a Saudi Arabia fan. 903 00:42:52,800 --> 00:42:55,380 Uh, I would probably trade, uh. 904 00:42:55,405 --> 00:42:58,645 The uk, Indonesia for sure, probably the uk. 905 00:42:58,855 --> 00:43:01,465 Uh, I would put ahead of Canada too if it's just like who I would 906 00:43:01,465 --> 00:43:02,905 trade on the list, like Absolutely. 907 00:43:03,805 --> 00:43:06,025 Marko Papic: So I think, I think there's three things that Canada 908 00:43:06,025 --> 00:43:07,945 has that other countries don't have. 909 00:43:09,055 --> 00:43:10,735 First of all, it's a hedge. 910 00:43:11,185 --> 00:43:17,365 So think of Canada as like, you know, like those bunkers that people have where 911 00:43:17,365 --> 00:43:19,195 they're like, everything is just turnkey. 912 00:43:19,795 --> 00:43:22,645 Or like the United States of Amer America has military bases around the 913 00:43:22,645 --> 00:43:24,295 world called lily pad bases, right? 914 00:43:24,295 --> 00:43:27,595 Where you're just like, you turn a key and like the Burger King in 915 00:43:27,595 --> 00:43:31,225 the back starts like operating, you know, the like Dairy Queen, like 916 00:43:31,225 --> 00:43:32,635 ice cream machine starts buzzing. 917 00:43:33,205 --> 00:43:35,935 That's Canada for the west, it's this bunker. 918 00:43:37,165 --> 00:43:40,690 And the reason I say that is that if anything bad happens to the United States 919 00:43:40,690 --> 00:43:47,095 of America, like Canada has everything US has just like ready to be scaled up. 920 00:43:47,515 --> 00:43:52,285 So if there is any sort of a domestic disturbance in the us, 921 00:43:52,285 --> 00:43:54,415 Canada becomes the US overnight. 922 00:43:56,235 --> 00:43:59,895 Precisely because it is the exact same in many ways. 923 00:43:59,925 --> 00:44:04,035 It's just ready, like if, if the US had some sort of a calamity, there are 924 00:44:04,125 --> 00:44:10,425 50 million American refugees in Canada tomorrow, and that's just, that's now a 925 00:44:10,425 --> 00:44:13,665 hundred million dollar, a hundred million dollars, a hundred million people country. 926 00:44:13,665 --> 00:44:14,775 So that's the first thing I would say. 927 00:44:15,465 --> 00:44:17,685 Um, it has institutions, governance. 928 00:44:17,715 --> 00:44:22,545 Those soft things that make Canada interesting to me are, are that it 929 00:44:22,545 --> 00:44:28,575 has basically Western IP and Western operating system is just smaller, is the 930 00:44:28,575 --> 00:44:30,465 size of Spain in terms of population. 931 00:44:31,035 --> 00:44:31,125 Jacob Shapiro: Mm-hmm. 932 00:44:31,455 --> 00:44:34,485 Marko Papic: The second thing I like about is obviously natural resources, which I 933 00:44:34,485 --> 00:44:38,295 think you're discounting the reason that you want to take Canada over Saudi Arabia. 934 00:44:38,295 --> 00:44:41,655 And the reason that Canada will matter is because its food production is just 935 00:44:41,655 --> 00:44:46,155 gonna go through the roof and you're the big soft ag guy, uh, soft commodity guy, 936 00:44:46,215 --> 00:44:48,825 you know, like Canada, um, will have. 937 00:44:49,950 --> 00:44:53,430 The greatest agricultural output over the next 30 years because 938 00:44:53,759 --> 00:44:57,509 climate change is happening and climate change is not always bad. 939 00:44:58,080 --> 00:45:01,620 Canada will will definitely benefit from it because the growing 940 00:45:01,620 --> 00:45:05,250 seasons will, um, expand and you'll have multiple growing seasons. 941 00:45:05,250 --> 00:45:07,230 This is the Saskatchewan and Manitoba play. 942 00:45:07,530 --> 00:45:10,860 It's not actually that much about Ontario or British Columbia. 943 00:45:10,860 --> 00:45:13,770 It's really about those prairies that suddenly become extremely good. 944 00:45:13,800 --> 00:45:17,730 It has water, endless water, uh, as water as far as di can see. 945 00:45:17,730 --> 00:45:21,210 It has massive, um, hydroelectric potential. 946 00:45:21,210 --> 00:45:25,980 It hasn't even tapped Quebec as a country is an exporter of energy, 947 00:45:26,040 --> 00:45:30,509 purely because of what, uh, it's done on the hydro side of things. 948 00:45:30,509 --> 00:45:34,530 It just invented hydropower, just built some dams on these lakes that 949 00:45:34,740 --> 00:45:36,360 nobody even really knows how to get to. 950 00:45:36,360 --> 00:45:37,290 There's no roads up there. 951 00:45:38,160 --> 00:45:40,920 Um, so the natural resources one is the big one. 952 00:45:40,920 --> 00:45:42,270 And then finally technology. 953 00:45:42,330 --> 00:45:45,721 I think that, uh, you're, you're underestimating just how. 954 00:45:46,530 --> 00:45:49,650 Important Canada has been to Western technological dominance. 955 00:45:49,710 --> 00:45:53,850 Um, research in mode, in motion obviously doesn't exist anymore. 956 00:45:53,850 --> 00:45:58,230 It's been overtaken by other things, but I think that rim is an important example 957 00:45:58,230 --> 00:45:59,640 of what Canada has done in the past. 958 00:45:59,640 --> 00:46:00,930 It's innovated massively. 959 00:46:01,230 --> 00:46:05,970 The reason we have cell phones that work today are rim patents that, um, 960 00:46:06,810 --> 00:46:12,150 are still being used in iPhones and in, uh, modern mobile telephones. 961 00:46:12,780 --> 00:46:14,430 The other issue is nuclear energy as well. 962 00:46:14,430 --> 00:46:19,020 It's another example of how Canada has uh, uh, punched above its weight. 963 00:46:19,530 --> 00:46:20,760 Quantum and fusion. 964 00:46:21,060 --> 00:46:24,180 Two things that Canada does really well and the reason for that is that 965 00:46:24,180 --> 00:46:25,890 it's universities are top class. 966 00:46:26,280 --> 00:46:28,470 Nobody really talks about 'em 'cause they're not fancy and they don't have 967 00:46:28,470 --> 00:46:31,830 sports, but they're very, very good. 968 00:46:32,100 --> 00:46:36,660 And again, it's kind of a hedge if, if you don't want to live in 969 00:46:36,660 --> 00:46:39,960 the US and you know, you posted on Twitter something interesting. 970 00:46:40,380 --> 00:46:42,060 How many PhDs in the US. 971 00:46:42,345 --> 00:46:44,774 Their performance, I think based on where they're coming from. 972 00:46:44,984 --> 00:46:45,075 Mm-hmm. 973 00:46:45,359 --> 00:46:45,580 Jacob Shapiro: Yep. 974 00:46:45,825 --> 00:46:46,004 Yep. 975 00:46:46,004 --> 00:46:46,185 You know, 976 00:46:46,185 --> 00:46:50,234 Marko Papic: like Canadian universities are, are basically just there sitting 977 00:46:50,654 --> 00:46:53,085 ready to take in all this global talent. 978 00:46:53,475 --> 00:46:56,384 So yes, this is definitely based on the future, but the reason that 979 00:46:56,384 --> 00:47:01,995 I like Canada more than like Iran is that Iran has the people, but 980 00:47:01,995 --> 00:47:03,615 it requires governance to change. 981 00:47:04,455 --> 00:47:06,915 Canada just doesn't have the people and I think honestly 982 00:47:06,915 --> 00:47:08,294 it's easier to solve for that. 983 00:47:09,165 --> 00:47:12,524 It is easier to build the infrastructure and have an aggressive immigration 984 00:47:13,095 --> 00:47:19,305 than to fix governance in institutions that haven't been modernized for 985 00:47:19,335 --> 00:47:21,495 like, you know, 50, 60, 70 years. 986 00:47:21,674 --> 00:47:26,085 So, um, that's, that's what, that's kind of why I have Canada. 987 00:47:26,355 --> 00:47:28,214 Maybe it is too high at number nine. 988 00:47:28,214 --> 00:47:31,095 I think maybe it should get that Iran, Argentina. 989 00:47:32,260 --> 00:47:33,015 Like, uh, yeah, 990 00:47:33,015 --> 00:47:35,325 Jacob Shapiro: I just, I would push back a couple different ways because 991 00:47:35,325 --> 00:47:37,665 like, okay, like it's a hedge on the United States, but that would 992 00:47:37,665 --> 00:47:39,585 be catastrophic for, uh, Canada. 993 00:47:39,585 --> 00:47:43,125 Like if the United States really fell apart into some kind of warring states 994 00:47:43,185 --> 00:47:45,045 version of China or something like that. 995 00:47:45,045 --> 00:47:48,315 I mean, maybe parts of Canada also get hid off or are gonna 996 00:47:48,315 --> 00:47:49,695 get negatively impacted by that. 997 00:47:49,875 --> 00:47:52,965 Also, Canada, not to get too, God, I can't believe I'm gonna be 998 00:47:52,965 --> 00:47:55,305 the one who talks about rivers on the podcast, but like, there's no 999 00:47:55,305 --> 00:47:56,985 Mississippi River Network in Canada. 1000 00:47:56,990 --> 00:47:57,910 You don't that shit anymore. 1001 00:47:58,100 --> 00:47:58,550 Come on. 1002 00:47:58,900 --> 00:48:00,525 It's not the, you definitely do. 1003 00:48:00,735 --> 00:48:03,435 You de I'm sitting here at, at the bottom of the Mississippi. 1004 00:48:03,435 --> 00:48:05,805 It still matters, uh, for, in a big way. 1005 00:48:06,140 --> 00:48:06,430 What 1006 00:48:08,145 --> 00:48:11,115 Marko Papic: New Orleans matters 'cause of the Mississippi of course. 1007 00:48:11,355 --> 00:48:12,045 Oh, come on. 1008 00:48:12,045 --> 00:48:16,305 Well, how much trade A US trade actually goes down to Mississippi that's 1009 00:48:16,305 --> 00:48:20,085 actually been researched by actual researchers doing actual analysis. 1010 00:48:21,765 --> 00:48:21,885 Jacob Shapiro: Uh. 1011 00:48:25,725 --> 00:48:26,745 Uh, there you go. 1012 00:48:26,805 --> 00:48:32,055 Uh, do, do, do, do approximately 500 million tons of goods annually. 1013 00:48:32,085 --> 00:48:32,714 I don't know what that means. 1014 00:48:32,714 --> 00:48:36,555 Uh, 60% of US grain exports, if you're talking about LNG and 1015 00:48:36,555 --> 00:48:38,145 things like that, also pretty big. 1016 00:48:38,295 --> 00:48:41,174 Um, so like you can count, you can go and count the ships and understand 1017 00:48:41,174 --> 00:48:43,815 something about like US agricultural complex and things like that. 1018 00:48:43,815 --> 00:48:46,694 Marko Papic: I mean, like maybe wheat because it's easy to put on a barge, 1019 00:48:46,694 --> 00:48:48,045 but you could also do that by train. 1020 00:48:49,125 --> 00:48:49,335 Jacob Shapiro: Yeah. 1021 00:48:49,335 --> 00:48:50,714 For it's more costly. 1022 00:48:51,194 --> 00:48:53,865 Um, in terms of, in terms of, Russia 1023 00:48:53,955 --> 00:48:56,355 Marko Papic: doesn't have any really useful rivers either. 1024 00:48:56,565 --> 00:49:00,134 Like, you know, it's not like the Russians are really, really using the ulca. 1025 00:49:01,440 --> 00:49:02,940 Jacob Shapiro: No, but they do have the vulgar. 1026 00:49:02,940 --> 00:49:06,060 But yes, there's a reason that Russia has never been able to succeed and 1027 00:49:06,060 --> 00:49:08,010 achieve its geopolitical imperatives. 1028 00:49:08,130 --> 00:49:10,650 Marko Papic: It's six that are, look Russia and Canada. 1029 00:49:10,650 --> 00:49:11,070 Yeah, because they 1030 00:49:11,070 --> 00:49:12,990 Jacob Shapiro: have, they have a meaningful military and they're 1031 00:49:12,990 --> 00:49:16,350 willing to use it and they have great power prediction capacity and like a 1032 00:49:16,350 --> 00:49:20,700 population that is many times larger than that of Canada and is not completely 1033 00:49:20,700 --> 00:49:22,830 economically dependent on its neighbor. 1034 00:49:22,980 --> 00:49:25,470 I mean, it's getting that way because of what Putin did with Ukraine. 1035 00:49:25,470 --> 00:49:28,680 But I'd, I would definitely rather have Russia than Canada on the geopolitical 1036 00:49:28,680 --> 00:49:30,510 power index even 30 years out. 1037 00:49:31,620 --> 00:49:32,100 Marko Papic: I think. 1038 00:49:32,790 --> 00:49:34,260 I think that's, that's true. 1039 00:49:34,350 --> 00:49:35,040 I would too. 1040 00:49:35,130 --> 00:49:36,240 That's what Canada's lower. 1041 00:49:36,480 --> 00:49:38,640 Um, and as I said, yes, I think it could be lower. 1042 00:49:38,640 --> 00:49:40,950 Look, I think you shouldn't over index on the hedge thing. 1043 00:49:41,610 --> 00:49:42,150 Um, 1044 00:49:42,420 --> 00:49:42,810 Jacob Shapiro: I think, well, yeah. 1045 00:49:42,810 --> 00:49:43,530 So, so no. 1046 00:49:43,530 --> 00:49:46,080 So, so, so the two other points you made the point about agriculture. 1047 00:49:46,320 --> 00:49:52,260 Do you know what the second, um, uh, the second biggest agricultural exporter 1048 00:49:52,260 --> 00:49:55,110 in terms of value is in the world? 1049 00:49:55,110 --> 00:49:56,835 I. Russia products by value. 1050 00:49:56,835 --> 00:49:59,265 Second largest exporter in the world of agricultural products. 1051 00:49:59,685 --> 00:50:00,195 I think Russia. 1052 00:50:01,065 --> 00:50:02,024 It is the Netherlands. 1053 00:50:02,115 --> 00:50:07,845 Oh, you can do farming with technology and vertical farmings in all other different 1054 00:50:07,845 --> 00:50:09,285 sorts of ways if you're willing to do it. 1055 00:50:09,345 --> 00:50:13,154 And I think, actually, I think you're right that Canada geographically is bound 1056 00:50:13,154 --> 00:50:15,915 to do well as a result of global warming. 1057 00:50:16,125 --> 00:50:19,995 But Canada's institutions, some of the mechanisms around its agriculture 1058 00:50:20,055 --> 00:50:21,254 are actually fairly antiquated. 1059 00:50:21,254 --> 00:50:24,645 And I bet you some Canadian farmers wouldn't mind if some things weren't, 1060 00:50:24,645 --> 00:50:27,404 uh, I'm thinking specifically about milk, but like I don't think that 1061 00:50:27,404 --> 00:50:29,234 the system is actually that great. 1062 00:50:29,234 --> 00:50:32,234 In some ways it's been so easy for them that they haven't had to 1063 00:50:32,234 --> 00:50:33,375 invest in some of these things. 1064 00:50:33,375 --> 00:50:36,134 So I would take the flip side and say, yes, they have natural advantages, 1065 00:50:36,194 --> 00:50:40,185 but like it's, and um, it's not like they're the only game in town. 1066 00:50:40,424 --> 00:50:45,285 And my list has producers like Russia, Brazil, um. 1067 00:50:45,930 --> 00:50:46,770 Australia. 1068 00:50:46,770 --> 00:50:49,320 Like there are some ag producers on here, so I don't discount it. 1069 00:50:49,320 --> 00:50:52,140 I just don't think that it makes Canada, um, particularly unique. 1070 00:50:52,440 --> 00:50:54,270 I accept your point about institutions. 1071 00:50:54,270 --> 00:50:57,480 The biggest argument for Canada, to your point, is they have institutions. 1072 00:50:57,480 --> 00:50:59,100 They could be a beacon for immigrants. 1073 00:50:59,370 --> 00:51:01,980 They could get some of the best and brightest from the rest 1074 00:51:01,980 --> 00:51:04,170 of the world to come to Canada instead of the United States. 1075 00:51:04,380 --> 00:51:06,780 The problem with that is just that I think it's gonna require a lot of 1076 00:51:06,780 --> 00:51:11,280 Canadian investment in becoming a leader in some of these things, and I don't 1077 00:51:11,280 --> 00:51:15,270 see the political coherence or will to do that quite yet in Canada Now. 1078 00:51:15,270 --> 00:51:16,440 30 years is a long time. 1079 00:51:16,440 --> 00:51:20,340 Maybe it pops up and they realize the United States is in decline in that sense, 1080 00:51:20,340 --> 00:51:24,840 or is abdicating this position and they're perfectly suited to sort of soak up that. 1081 00:51:24,840 --> 00:51:27,330 So I, I take your point there, but I would push back on the first two. 1082 00:51:27,780 --> 00:51:27,930 Marko Papic: Yeah. 1083 00:51:27,930 --> 00:51:31,680 But again, technology, uh, innovation in Canada has been massive, you know, 1084 00:51:31,680 --> 00:51:36,450 and I think that's what we're, uh, also missing, um, from your criticism. 1085 00:51:36,450 --> 00:51:38,430 I mean, that's, that's been like a constant stream of like, 1086 00:51:38,460 --> 00:51:39,990 oh shit, Canada invented that. 1087 00:51:40,560 --> 00:51:44,760 Um, that I think that it, you know, it, it signifies. 1088 00:51:45,435 --> 00:51:48,585 Basically there is something in the country that produces innovation. 1089 00:51:48,585 --> 00:51:49,365 That's very interesting. 1090 00:51:49,365 --> 00:51:50,955 And I think that's because of immigration. 1091 00:51:50,955 --> 00:51:53,985 I think it's because of great schools, because of quality of life. 1092 00:51:54,585 --> 00:52:00,735 Um, and uh, the other issue that I would point out is energy. 1093 00:52:01,245 --> 00:52:02,390 You didn't mention anything on energy. 1094 00:52:04,275 --> 00:52:04,395 Jacob Shapiro: No. 1095 00:52:04,395 --> 00:52:05,265 We've got too much oil. 1096 00:52:06,405 --> 00:52:06,705 Cool. 1097 00:52:07,695 --> 00:52:08,205 The world. 1098 00:52:08,205 --> 00:52:10,935 The world has too much oil and Canada's oil infrastructure 1099 00:52:10,935 --> 00:52:12,405 is all pointed downwards. 1100 00:52:12,585 --> 00:52:13,035 No, 1101 00:52:13,035 --> 00:52:13,185 Marko Papic: it's 1102 00:52:13,185 --> 00:52:13,455 Jacob Shapiro: not. 1103 00:52:13,515 --> 00:52:14,655 Marko Papic: No, but that's an easy fix. 1104 00:52:15,075 --> 00:52:15,855 That's an easy fix. 1105 00:52:16,455 --> 00:52:18,855 This is where I think you're missing what's happening. 1106 00:52:18,855 --> 00:52:19,875 Like Donald Trump. 1107 00:52:20,445 --> 00:52:24,015 That is the one thing, if I could say, of all the things that he's done wrong. 1108 00:52:24,465 --> 00:52:28,245 I think for the future of the us the biggest mistake was that Canada's 1109 00:52:28,245 --> 00:52:29,655 a milkshake with one straw in it. 1110 00:52:30,615 --> 00:52:33,705 And he's encouraging them to build two straws, two extra straws. 1111 00:52:34,155 --> 00:52:38,385 True and Dish, you know, the way that NDP and the Green Party performed in the 1112 00:52:38,385 --> 00:52:42,945 election was a clear rebuke by the, uh, Canadian population against this kind 1113 00:52:42,945 --> 00:52:44,775 of like very extreme environmentalism. 1114 00:52:45,225 --> 00:52:48,675 Um, where it, it's, it's kind of silly like Canada's gonna 1115 00:52:48,675 --> 00:52:50,025 produce these hydrocarbons. 1116 00:52:51,225 --> 00:52:54,765 Why limit their export if they're gonna be produced anyways? 1117 00:52:54,855 --> 00:52:56,415 Why are they all going to the us? 1118 00:52:56,775 --> 00:52:59,175 And so that energy infrastructure, I think is gonna be interesting. 1119 00:52:59,235 --> 00:53:02,595 And it could make Canada very, to your point, that it doesn't really 1120 00:53:02,595 --> 00:53:04,215 have a lot of, uh, pool in the world. 1121 00:53:04,335 --> 00:53:07,245 It doesn't because all of its, uh, trade is with the us. 1122 00:53:08,385 --> 00:53:08,625 Jacob Shapiro: Yeah. 1123 00:53:09,855 --> 00:53:10,965 Um, what else on the list? 1124 00:53:10,965 --> 00:53:13,575 Is there anything else we need to, by the way, Canada, I, I like 1125 00:53:13,575 --> 00:53:14,925 you like, on different lists. 1126 00:53:14,925 --> 00:53:16,335 I would have you very close to the top. 1127 00:53:16,335 --> 00:53:19,635 It's just in this very narrowly idiosyncratic way that I'm, I'm 1128 00:53:19,635 --> 00:53:22,545 pushing you down, but I like you guys and you shouldn't be the 51st state. 1129 00:53:22,545 --> 00:53:24,045 You should be your own state forever and ever. 1130 00:53:26,085 --> 00:53:27,435 Marko Papic: Uh, anything else? 1131 00:53:27,555 --> 00:53:30,345 I think Japan, well, we kind of moved Japan. 1132 00:53:31,425 --> 00:53:32,625 We got Argentina lower. 1133 00:53:32,865 --> 00:53:36,345 I think the honorable mentions are interesting of, of those, 1134 00:53:36,375 --> 00:53:39,435 the Nordic Union, uh, which of course is a play on the future. 1135 00:53:39,915 --> 00:53:41,205 Israel, Poland. 1136 00:53:41,235 --> 00:53:43,725 Malaysia, UAE, Uzbekistan, Rwanda. 1137 00:53:45,375 --> 00:53:49,245 I think Israel, Israel's really the one that's the toughest. 1138 00:53:49,365 --> 00:53:53,535 Um, I think Aion just because again, to use the quantitative 1139 00:53:53,535 --> 00:53:57,735 index, Israel is 19th by the way, if you use the quantitative index. 1140 00:53:57,735 --> 00:54:02,535 I created Israel's 19th, the one from the Cold War, which obviously 1141 00:54:02,535 --> 00:54:06,645 emphasizes just raw things like size of military, size of population. 1142 00:54:06,645 --> 00:54:06,765 Mm-hmm. 1143 00:54:07,005 --> 00:54:11,985 Israel is 40th still pretty good for a country of, you know, 10 million people. 1144 00:54:13,605 --> 00:54:18,345 Still pretty impressive that it makes it nation Yeah, it makes it to that list. 1145 00:54:18,675 --> 00:54:19,185 Uh. 1146 00:54:20,010 --> 00:54:25,380 Top 40, uh, but it is 19th on the geopolitical power index I created, um, 1147 00:54:25,590 --> 00:54:27,090 using some of this quantitative stuff. 1148 00:54:27,150 --> 00:54:29,670 Um, so yeah. 1149 00:54:29,675 --> 00:54:29,786 Yeah, I 1150 00:54:29,791 --> 00:54:32,220 Jacob Shapiro: just, I, I think the thing with Israel is like, um, 1151 00:54:32,520 --> 00:54:35,280 it feels like the past, it feels like it's not gonna be the future. 1152 00:54:35,280 --> 00:54:39,090 Like imagine if you and I were sitting here in 1949 creating this 1153 00:54:39,090 --> 00:54:43,020 index, we wouldn't have put Israel anywhere close to the top who 1154 00:54:43,020 --> 00:54:44,670 should have, let alone the top 50. 1155 00:54:44,670 --> 00:54:47,580 But what they did over the course of the next 30 years was remarkable. 1156 00:54:47,580 --> 00:54:50,820 So in some ways, I think we're looking for the next Israel, I'm not sure that 1157 00:54:50,820 --> 00:54:55,350 Israel's gonna go back and reinvent itself the way that it did in 1949. 1158 00:54:55,350 --> 00:54:59,670 Now it does have nuclear weapons and it does have institutions and it does 1159 00:54:59,670 --> 00:55:02,730 have an existential need to exist and all these other different things. 1160 00:55:02,730 --> 00:55:04,530 So like I, I see it. 1161 00:55:04,590 --> 00:55:08,010 Um, but you know, in some sense their need to dictate action in 1162 00:55:08,010 --> 00:55:10,920 their regional sphere, um, is. 1163 00:55:11,145 --> 00:55:13,095 A sign of weakness and like they're losing. 1164 00:55:13,095 --> 00:55:15,885 Like I think the relationship with the US is fraying and who is gonna 1165 00:55:15,885 --> 00:55:18,375 be like the security guarantor? 1166 00:55:18,405 --> 00:55:20,985 'cause Israel has always needed some Big Mac daddy in the 1167 00:55:20,985 --> 00:55:22,335 background who's gonna help them. 1168 00:55:22,695 --> 00:55:24,165 Um, they've never done this alone. 1169 00:55:24,225 --> 00:55:26,685 And it's, it sure seems like they're starting to embark on a world where 1170 00:55:26,685 --> 00:55:27,945 they're having to do it alone. 1171 00:55:27,945 --> 00:55:30,945 And that should be very frightening for Israeli strategic decision makers. 1172 00:55:30,945 --> 00:55:33,705 But to your point, they've done it in the past and they do, like, 1173 00:55:33,705 --> 00:55:35,775 they're, they're not starting from zero like they were before. 1174 00:55:35,775 --> 00:55:35,835 So, 1175 00:55:36,285 --> 00:55:40,635 Marko Papic: you know, my concern, my concern Jacob, is that like, the 1176 00:55:40,635 --> 00:55:42,135 future is not about demographics. 1177 00:55:42,435 --> 00:55:42,885 Sorry. 1178 00:55:43,305 --> 00:55:48,345 And it's not about rivers, sorry to YouTube, but it's not like geography 1179 00:55:48,345 --> 00:55:52,125 and humans are being constantly, constantly throughout human history 1180 00:55:52,575 --> 00:55:54,165 have been disrupted by technology. 1181 00:55:54,165 --> 00:55:56,385 I mean, do you, United Kingdom being the greatest example, and please don't 1182 00:55:56,385 --> 00:55:57,705 tell me Tames is a fucking river. 1183 00:55:57,765 --> 00:55:58,275 You know what I mean? 1184 00:55:58,305 --> 00:56:01,005 It's like an tu like no, no. 1185 00:56:01,005 --> 00:56:03,015 Grain is being transship by tames. 1186 00:56:03,015 --> 00:56:04,665 So the Thames, sorry. 1187 00:56:05,415 --> 00:56:08,925 My point is that technology always, always, always, always wins. 1188 00:56:09,075 --> 00:56:09,285 You know? 1189 00:56:09,285 --> 00:56:10,395 Always wins it. 1190 00:56:10,395 --> 00:56:11,865 Like just, it just does. 1191 00:56:12,465 --> 00:56:14,865 That's why I picked South Korea as high as I did. 1192 00:56:15,285 --> 00:56:19,905 'cause I'm betting that their unique mix of necessities, insecurity, 1193 00:56:20,265 --> 00:56:22,965 all this stuff, you know your point about North Korea being subsumed 1194 00:56:22,965 --> 00:56:23,955 at some point, which is good too. 1195 00:56:23,955 --> 00:56:24,945 I didn't even think about that. 1196 00:56:25,425 --> 00:56:27,795 But to me, South Korea is number seven because of technology. 1197 00:56:27,795 --> 00:56:27,855 Yeah. 1198 00:56:28,785 --> 00:56:31,095 India I think can also do the same. 1199 00:56:31,155 --> 00:56:34,035 And then obviously the standard US China, EMU five. 1200 00:56:34,605 --> 00:56:37,785 My concern is when I look at our list, some of the countries that I 1201 00:56:37,785 --> 00:56:41,445 picked that don't have, oh by the way, Canada too, like my point is Canada 1202 00:56:41,445 --> 00:56:45,825 has endogenous technology, great universities, and has done it in the past. 1203 00:56:45,825 --> 00:56:48,495 It's proven in the past that it can actually innovate in 1204 00:56:48,525 --> 00:56:49,935 like globally relevant ways. 1205 00:56:50,535 --> 00:56:53,805 My concern is when I look at this list, the countries who haven't 1206 00:56:53,805 --> 00:56:55,065 really been able to do that. 1207 00:56:55,875 --> 00:56:57,405 Uh, so you are a pick of Mexico? 1208 00:56:57,405 --> 00:56:58,485 My pick of Argentina. 1209 00:56:59,175 --> 00:57:02,865 South Africa actually has innovated technologically, so it's not like. 1210 00:57:03,705 --> 00:57:05,444 That's a silly Ukraine. 1211 00:57:05,444 --> 00:57:09,075 I picked Ukraine in the top 20 because they've proven in this conflict that 1212 00:57:09,075 --> 00:57:11,174 they can innovate, uh, massively. 1213 00:57:11,174 --> 00:57:11,535 Some of the, yeah, 1214 00:57:11,745 --> 00:57:14,895 Jacob Shapiro: we, we got some pushback from, from listeners about Ukraine and my 1215 00:57:14,895 --> 00:57:18,285 point about Ukraine was, if you're looking for the Israel of the next 30 years, 1216 00:57:18,435 --> 00:57:23,025 Ukraine is probably the one, like it has a lot of weird similarities with Israel. 1217 00:57:23,085 --> 00:57:23,325 You know, 1218 00:57:23,384 --> 00:57:27,105 Marko Papic: late think those were Russian bots at Twitter, you know, like, come on. 1219 00:57:27,134 --> 00:57:31,845 Like clearly like, but the, you know, Singapore, okay, so Singapore on that 1220 00:57:32,085 --> 00:57:36,915 rubric of technology I think is great, but this is where I worry that yeah, we, 1221 00:57:36,975 --> 00:57:43,485 we over index on like Israel's domestic politics perhaps, and its demographics. 1222 00:57:44,174 --> 00:57:50,715 But what we, I think, I think Israel and UAE are honorable mentions and Nordic 1223 00:57:50,715 --> 00:57:57,149 Union Sweden has, I. Sweden punches way above any country on the planet when 1224 00:57:57,149 --> 00:57:58,529 it comes to technological innovation. 1225 00:57:58,529 --> 00:58:00,660 Like you're talking about a country of 10 million people as 1226 00:58:00,660 --> 00:58:02,279 fighter jets that people buy. 1227 00:58:02,279 --> 00:58:02,730 Come on. 1228 00:58:02,730 --> 00:58:05,910 This is like serious, serious, serious capability. 1229 00:58:05,910 --> 00:58:09,330 So anyways, I think that probably we should have thought 1230 00:58:09,330 --> 00:58:10,169 about that a little bit more. 1231 00:58:10,169 --> 00:58:12,480 I, I do worry about my Indonesia picket 11. 1232 00:58:14,759 --> 00:58:20,189 You know, I worry about Turkey at four, although they have shown the ability 1233 00:58:20,189 --> 00:58:21,834 to innovate and they have absolutely. 1234 00:58:21,839 --> 00:58:22,230 Turkey at 1235 00:58:22,230 --> 00:58:22,980 Jacob Shapiro: four is high. 1236 00:58:22,980 --> 00:58:27,180 I'd be the first to admit that and like, it probably should not be ahead of India. 1237 00:58:27,390 --> 00:58:30,839 Um, but I go back and forth about India, like some days I'm like, India should 1238 00:58:30,839 --> 00:58:33,149 probably be number two on this list. 1239 00:58:33,154 --> 00:58:36,240 And then, and then some days I'm like, India will be 25 because it won't 1240 00:58:36,240 --> 00:58:37,350 be able to get its shit together. 1241 00:58:37,350 --> 00:58:38,609 Like I really, I'm ambivalent 1242 00:58:38,609 --> 00:58:40,080 Marko Papic: and I'm really, I'm really happy people didn't get 1243 00:58:40,080 --> 00:58:44,250 any hit, hit mail on India because I thought, well that's probably 1244 00:58:44,250 --> 00:58:45,540 Jacob Shapiro: just 'cause nobody from India listened. 1245 00:58:45,540 --> 00:58:46,439 If they did, I'm sure 1246 00:58:46,439 --> 00:58:47,399 Marko Papic: we, I think they do. 1247 00:58:47,730 --> 00:58:48,240 I think they do. 1248 00:58:48,240 --> 00:58:51,120 But I think that they were, uh, appropriately satisfied with it, you know. 1249 00:58:51,705 --> 00:58:56,235 I feel like Indian Twitter is kind of like Portland's trailblazers fans. 1250 00:58:57,705 --> 00:59:02,325 Like if you are not saying like Portland Trailblazer fans are famously, like soccer 1251 00:59:02,325 --> 00:59:04,125 moms, very productive of their children. 1252 00:59:04,455 --> 00:59:07,125 I feel like I thought we would get hate mail for having 1253 00:59:07,125 --> 00:59:08,384 India theft, but we didn't. 1254 00:59:08,835 --> 00:59:11,805 I think it's appropriate and they do have that technology factor. 1255 00:59:11,805 --> 00:59:15,615 But anyways, the technology factor is what worries me because your example of 1256 00:59:15,615 --> 00:59:20,895 19, us sitting, sitting and doing this in 1946, if we were sitting and doing this 1257 00:59:20,895 --> 00:59:24,225 in 1946, like who would've picked that? 1258 00:59:24,225 --> 00:59:27,495 Israel would be one of the greatest technological, uh, 1259 00:59:27,495 --> 00:59:29,145 wellsprings of innovation. 1260 00:59:29,235 --> 00:59:34,725 Um, and I think that that's what has kept Israel as high as it has been. 1261 00:59:34,725 --> 00:59:41,805 So I do think that that maybe is something we are understating by focusing still. 1262 00:59:41,805 --> 00:59:42,825 It's, it's so funny. 1263 00:59:42,975 --> 00:59:45,884 We're trying to resist the pool of demographics and 1264 00:59:45,884 --> 00:59:47,775 rivers and humans and wheat. 1265 00:59:48,750 --> 00:59:54,900 Yet, I mean, Indonesia picket 11, you know, like Argentina, Mexico, a 1266 00:59:54,900 --> 00:59:59,220 lot of these picks are based on some of those, maybe a little bit over, 1267 00:59:59,280 --> 01:00:02,220 um, stated geopolitical qualities. 1268 01:00:03,000 --> 01:00:05,190 Jacob Shapiro: Well, and it's a, and like this list has to be dynamic. 1269 01:00:05,190 --> 01:00:08,700 Like, I think the thought experiment of, if we were trying to do this in 1946 1270 01:00:08,700 --> 01:00:10,620 or 1949, like who would be on the list? 1271 01:00:10,620 --> 01:00:14,070 Like obviously we can't like, forget all of our knowledge and really 1272 01:00:14,070 --> 01:00:16,740 put ourselves, uh, back in 1946. 1273 01:00:16,745 --> 01:00:18,210 We should, we, we should be able to try. 1274 01:00:18,210 --> 01:00:21,480 But like if we were doing that and just, you know, thinking like what was 1275 01:00:21,480 --> 01:00:22,650 conventional knowledge at the time? 1276 01:00:22,650 --> 01:00:23,940 Like, I wonder what that list would look like. 1277 01:00:23,940 --> 01:00:27,300 It would probably look like us Soviet Union and then what the United Nations 1278 01:00:27,300 --> 01:00:31,560 would be third, like Japan wouldn't be on there like, uh, German, like all 1279 01:00:31,560 --> 01:00:34,500 these different countries that like really defined the next three decades 1280 01:00:34,500 --> 01:00:35,790 would probably not be on the list. 1281 01:00:35,790 --> 01:00:38,190 'cause the world just came out from a war and everybody was bombed. 1282 01:00:38,340 --> 01:00:38,430 Wait, 1283 01:00:38,795 --> 01:00:41,490 Marko Papic: Jacob, Jacob, Paula, I actually think we should do this. 1284 01:00:42,435 --> 01:00:45,134 We should do this in couple, when, when things slow down, 1285 01:00:46,004 --> 01:00:46,694 Jacob Shapiro: which will never No. 1286 01:00:46,694 --> 01:00:47,564 Our, our next draft. 1287 01:00:47,564 --> 01:00:48,435 We could do our next draft. 1288 01:00:48,615 --> 01:00:50,924 Marko Papic: No, but the reason I think it'll be interesting, Jacob, is that if 1289 01:00:50,924 --> 01:00:57,165 you and I were in 1946, I think you and I still picked China and India, high 1290 01:00:57,915 --> 01:00:58,274 Jacob Shapiro: India. 1291 01:00:58,785 --> 01:00:59,176 Marko Papic: We do, we do. 1292 01:00:59,182 --> 01:01:00,225 A hundred percent. 1293 01:01:00,879 --> 01:01:01,245 No, no. 1294 01:01:01,365 --> 01:01:02,444 Listen, we do. 1295 01:01:02,444 --> 01:01:04,125 I swear to you, we do, we do. 1296 01:01:04,544 --> 01:01:06,314 Let's put ourselves You'll be smoking. 1297 01:01:06,674 --> 01:01:08,384 I'll be drinking heavily, right? 1298 01:01:08,504 --> 01:01:08,834 Jacob Shapiro: Yeah. 1299 01:01:08,955 --> 01:01:09,674 Marko Papic: We'll do it. 1300 01:01:10,395 --> 01:01:14,955 The the point is not that we wouldn't, the point is that we would and we'd be wrong. 1301 01:01:16,125 --> 01:01:16,544 Jacob Shapiro: That's true. 1302 01:01:17,205 --> 01:01:18,194 Marko Papic: That's the point. 1303 01:01:18,765 --> 01:01:20,444 The point is that you would've picked Brazil. 1304 01:01:20,475 --> 01:01:21,944 Oh, well they avoided World War ii. 1305 01:01:21,975 --> 01:01:22,785 I love Brazil. 1306 01:01:23,294 --> 01:01:24,435 I'm a soft ax guy. 1307 01:01:24,464 --> 01:01:25,814 I know how important this is. 1308 01:01:25,995 --> 01:01:27,495 Boom, err wrong. 1309 01:01:28,455 --> 01:01:31,964 I would've been like, listen, India, there's a movement for independence. 1310 01:01:31,964 --> 01:01:34,605 It's gonna be infused with new energy, you know? 1311 01:01:35,174 --> 01:01:35,745 Wrong. 1312 01:01:36,180 --> 01:01:38,880 Then you would've been like, yo, China, you just wait. 1313 01:01:39,000 --> 01:01:42,450 You know, they're gonna, like, in industrialize, I think Miles's gonna 1314 01:01:42,450 --> 01:01:47,790 shift from being a guerilla soldier to being a modernizer err wrong. 1315 01:01:48,120 --> 01:01:48,480 You know? 1316 01:01:48,480 --> 01:01:51,330 And that's what it would've been so exciting to actually do. 1317 01:01:51,960 --> 01:01:54,480 Jacob Shapiro: Um, it would've, but like the actual, like if, if we were 1318 01:01:54,480 --> 01:01:58,170 good analysts, let's assume for a second we were good analysts in 1946. 1319 01:01:58,380 --> 01:02:01,230 If we were good analysts, the list would be Russia or would 1320 01:02:01,230 --> 01:02:02,910 be United States, Soviet Union. 1321 01:02:03,030 --> 01:02:03,690 End of list. 1322 01:02:03,745 --> 01:02:04,285 Marko Papic: End of list. 1323 01:02:04,285 --> 01:02:04,286 Yeah. 1324 01:02:04,860 --> 01:02:05,430 Jacob Shapiro: Like that. 1325 01:02:05,430 --> 01:02:08,460 You, you would've had the balls to be like, I reject this entire exercise. 1326 01:02:08,460 --> 01:02:10,320 That's that the two get, get out my face. 1327 01:02:10,650 --> 01:02:11,220 Marko Papic: Nobody cares. 1328 01:02:11,370 --> 01:02:17,010 But listen, I think, you know, what I'm getting at here is that I think when 1329 01:02:17,010 --> 01:02:22,410 we talk geopolitics, I think it's a big mistake to use immutable variables. 1330 01:02:22,440 --> 01:02:23,040 Mm-hmm. 1331 01:02:23,640 --> 01:02:27,660 You know, and that's really, and that goes against our training at Stratfor by 1332 01:02:27,660 --> 01:02:31,470 the way, that goes against very training that you and I received in our youth. 1333 01:02:32,070 --> 01:02:35,940 I think it goes against the training that most people think goes into 1334 01:02:35,940 --> 01:02:37,320 being a geopolitical analyst. 1335 01:02:37,380 --> 01:02:40,800 It's like, well wait, if I use things like demographics, which are slow 1336 01:02:40,800 --> 01:02:46,800 moving rivers, geography, natural defenses, natural resources, I should 1337 01:02:46,800 --> 01:02:49,410 produce a relatively correct list. 1338 01:02:49,410 --> 01:02:50,160 And that's my point. 1339 01:02:50,160 --> 01:02:56,400 In 1946, you would've picked, not you, but like one would've picked fairly, 1340 01:02:56,400 --> 01:03:01,110 like consistently the same countries, and yet it is the Netherlands and yet 1341 01:03:01,140 --> 01:03:06,660 it is Israel, and yet it is some random South Korea that's like barely, I 1342 01:03:06,660 --> 01:03:13,020 mean, that was like pushed to the very East China Sea, you know what I mean? 1343 01:03:13,020 --> 01:03:18,210 Like it, it is these countries that end up outperforming expectations 1344 01:03:18,570 --> 01:03:23,790 because true innovation and true, true power and, and true like. 1345 01:03:25,515 --> 01:03:29,505 Abilities come out of necessity, not the plenty. 1346 01:03:30,255 --> 01:03:32,115 Jacob Shapiro: Yeah, I, I agree with you. 1347 01:03:32,115 --> 01:03:34,395 I'm gonna make one semantic change to what you say. 1348 01:03:34,395 --> 01:03:37,155 'cause I dunno if you saw, we had one per person who replied to us on Twitter 1349 01:03:37,155 --> 01:03:40,665 that said we were taking some shots at Peter and, and George and the godfathers 1350 01:03:40,665 --> 01:03:42,015 who, uh, taught us and things like that. 1351 01:03:42,225 --> 01:03:45,975 But one of the reasons I'm so frustrated with, with George and with Peter and 1352 01:03:45,975 --> 01:03:49,315 some of those others, and by the way, I. We don't have careers without them. 1353 01:03:49,315 --> 01:03:51,924 So everything I say like if Iain to speak about them, it's 1354 01:03:51,924 --> 01:03:53,095 actually a sign of respect. 1355 01:03:53,095 --> 01:03:55,464 If I don't respect you, I probably won't use your name at all. 1356 01:03:55,464 --> 01:03:57,895 Like I have a healthy level of respect even when I disagree with them. 1357 01:03:58,165 --> 01:04:01,525 But I think we were taught actually that there are no immutable principles 1358 01:04:01,884 --> 01:04:06,295 that rivers can change and that technology can be created that makes 1359 01:04:06,325 --> 01:04:10,674 what was a previously really strong like longstanding thing change overnight. 1360 01:04:10,735 --> 01:04:12,714 Like the rise of precision guided munitions and the 1361 01:04:12,714 --> 01:04:13,884 semiconductor in industry. 1362 01:04:13,884 --> 01:04:16,075 And everything that happened with it completely revolutionized 1363 01:04:16,075 --> 01:04:17,725 geopolitics basically overnight. 1364 01:04:17,725 --> 01:04:19,285 And that happens in the late 1950s. 1365 01:04:19,435 --> 01:04:23,634 And I think we were actually taught to be highly attuned to that, that the 1366 01:04:23,634 --> 01:04:27,145 hardest part of geopolitical analysis is yes, you're looking for the thing. 1367 01:04:27,525 --> 01:04:30,975 That feels immutable today, and which defines the center of gravity today. 1368 01:04:31,215 --> 01:04:34,815 But you also have to be flexible enough in your mind to throw it all out of the 1369 01:04:34,815 --> 01:04:40,425 window tomorrow because you read some article in the, you know, Uzbekistani 1370 01:04:40,425 --> 01:04:44,265 post that suggests that it's all going to change in the next 10 years. 1371 01:04:44,265 --> 01:04:47,265 And being able to throw out your old mental model and embrace a new one and 1372 01:04:47,265 --> 01:04:50,325 say, okay, this is the new immutable principle for the next 30 years. 1373 01:04:50,505 --> 01:04:52,875 Like, that was the training that I got. 1374 01:04:52,875 --> 01:04:56,355 And I feel like, you know, geopolitical analysts who have started resting on 1375 01:04:56,355 --> 01:05:00,165 their laurels, that's when they start going back to, and the river is here and 1376 01:05:00,165 --> 01:05:03,975 the demographic pyramid says this, and I'm just gonna, you know, extrapolate 1377 01:05:03,975 --> 01:05:05,415 from this going into the future. 1378 01:05:05,415 --> 01:05:08,655 Whereas like the really hard thing, like I said, is for us to be here next 1379 01:05:08,655 --> 01:05:12,345 week, let's say some discovery gets made for fusion, and we look at each other 1380 01:05:12,345 --> 01:05:15,405 and we're like, all right, everything we've said for the last 10 years to 1381 01:05:15,405 --> 01:05:17,055 our clients, it was all fucking wrong. 1382 01:05:17,625 --> 01:05:19,035 Like, we gotta change everything. 1383 01:05:19,155 --> 01:05:23,235 Like we have to start from scratch and you have to do that exercise like constantly. 1384 01:05:23,535 --> 01:05:24,765 Um, in this business, not. 1385 01:05:26,235 --> 01:05:29,685 Marko Papic: So I'm not sure we were taught that though, because, you 1386 01:05:29,685 --> 01:05:32,325 know, I mean like the whole point of, and, and I think we, we should 1387 01:05:32,325 --> 01:05:35,895 dedicate a whole episode just in the concept of geopolitical imperatives. 1388 01:05:36,285 --> 01:05:36,885 Um mm-hmm. 1389 01:05:37,155 --> 01:05:40,635 But I, but you know, like for example, yeah, I'm, I'm not sure 1390 01:05:40,635 --> 01:05:43,515 that that was ever effected. 1391 01:05:43,545 --> 01:05:47,085 And you know, one of the interesting things about finance and geopolitics 1392 01:05:47,235 --> 01:05:53,025 is that the reason you can have geopolitical trades is because some of 1393 01:05:53,025 --> 01:05:55,035 these long-term trends just don't matter. 1394 01:05:55,425 --> 01:05:55,515 Mm-hmm. 1395 01:05:55,755 --> 01:05:59,085 You know, they just, and they, and they, they might matter on a 30 or 50 year 1396 01:05:59,085 --> 01:06:02,205 time horizon, but they don't matter on a five or 10 year time horizon. 1397 01:06:02,205 --> 01:06:07,755 Countries do revolt against their geographic prisons, against their 1398 01:06:07,755 --> 01:06:11,500 demographic prisons, and they revolt against them through innovation. 1399 01:06:12,720 --> 01:06:16,380 Through productivity and through surprising, you know, and that's, 1400 01:06:16,380 --> 01:06:18,060 again, going back to 1946. 1401 01:06:18,360 --> 01:06:21,810 I think we pick a lot of these countries in 1946 and we end up being wrong. 1402 01:06:22,230 --> 01:06:25,410 You know, we, we ignore Europe, we ignore the Netherlands, we ignore 1403 01:06:25,410 --> 01:06:27,120 Israel, we ignore South Korea. 1404 01:06:27,720 --> 01:06:30,360 Um, and we're shocked by what, what comes after. 1405 01:06:31,860 --> 01:06:32,160 Jacob Shapiro: All right. 1406 01:06:32,160 --> 01:06:35,400 Well, so we'll do a future episode on geopolitical imperatives, and I'm gonna 1407 01:06:35,400 --> 01:06:39,180 take the reins here and use that as the perfect segue, because speaking of 1408 01:06:39,180 --> 01:06:44,550 revolting against constraints, um, let's start sort of our 30 minutes around 1409 01:06:44,550 --> 01:06:49,290 the world with this narrowly passed sweeping tax cut bill from President 1410 01:06:49,295 --> 01:06:53,100 Trump and the Republicans that is on its way to the Senate, uh, different, 1411 01:06:53,160 --> 01:06:57,900 you know, independent sources saying it's gonna add 4 trillion roughly to the 1412 01:06:57,900 --> 01:07:00,690 US deficit over the next decade or so. 1413 01:07:01,110 --> 01:07:01,770 Um. 1414 01:07:02,984 --> 01:07:05,535 Well, I'm not gonna, I'm not gonna pretend to be humble. 1415 01:07:05,774 --> 01:07:08,444 I said two things at the beginning of the Trump administration that he 1416 01:07:08,444 --> 01:07:11,685 wasn't gonna be able to double down on tariffs, and that there was no way 1417 01:07:11,685 --> 01:07:15,315 in hell that this administration was going to be fiscally conservative. 1418 01:07:15,794 --> 01:07:18,884 Uh, and we've seen Elon Musk has exited stage left. 1419 01:07:19,095 --> 01:07:20,955 Uh, he's very chagrined by his support. 1420 01:07:20,955 --> 01:07:24,615 And the Republicans and the Trump LED White House are 1421 01:07:24,615 --> 01:07:26,595 going to blow out the deficit. 1422 01:07:26,595 --> 01:07:28,875 I think that's the news, um, of the week there. 1423 01:07:28,875 --> 01:07:31,875 I'll let you cook from there, but I think it, I, I say it's a revolt 1424 01:07:31,875 --> 01:07:35,535 against constraints because I wonder how you think about this. 1425 01:07:35,535 --> 01:07:40,665 Like the, the extent of US debt in and of itself has become a constraint. 1426 01:07:40,815 --> 01:07:43,575 I think you can see that in the way the dollar's behaving and the way that 1427 01:07:43,575 --> 01:07:46,515 US Treasury yields are going and the way that other countries are dealing. 1428 01:07:47,024 --> 01:07:50,325 With the United States, with the Moody's downgrade, like the debt itself has 1429 01:07:50,325 --> 01:07:52,185 become so big that it is a constraint. 1430 01:07:52,424 --> 01:07:56,294 And rather than President Trump sticking to the guns that got him sort of elected 1431 01:07:56,294 --> 01:07:59,384 with your Elon Musk and your, you know, your fiscal hawks and things like that 1432 01:07:59,384 --> 01:08:01,904 in the background, he's going, screw it. 1433 01:08:02,085 --> 01:08:03,765 Let's do another 4 trillion. 1434 01:08:03,915 --> 01:08:06,884 Let's do more than we did with the pandemic and with the, the 1435 01:08:06,884 --> 01:08:08,475 previous tax cuts combined. 1436 01:08:08,504 --> 01:08:09,435 I'll let you cook from there. 1437 01:08:10,484 --> 01:08:12,285 Marko Papic: Well, your math is not really correct. 1438 01:08:12,915 --> 01:08:13,274 Great. 1439 01:08:13,274 --> 01:08:13,575 Correct. 1440 01:08:13,580 --> 01:08:13,725 Correct me. 1441 01:08:14,294 --> 01:08:14,595 Jacob Shapiro: Yes. 1442 01:08:14,600 --> 01:08:15,674 I, I want you to know listeners. 1443 01:08:15,674 --> 01:08:19,995 I, uh, I was a member of the Weber school math team in high school. 1444 01:08:19,995 --> 01:08:21,764 I competed with them for three years. 1445 01:08:22,005 --> 01:08:24,314 I mostly was there for the free pizza that came along. 1446 01:08:24,434 --> 01:08:27,224 I competed at math competitions for three years in high school. 1447 01:08:27,585 --> 01:08:30,194 Uh, I did not get a single problem. 1448 01:08:30,194 --> 01:08:33,080 Correct in my three years in, in competition. 1449 01:08:33,644 --> 01:08:36,465 Marko Papic: Jacob, Jacob, I got three degrees in political 1450 01:08:36,465 --> 01:08:37,724 science, which is three too many. 1451 01:08:37,724 --> 01:08:39,554 So like I am not a math guy. 1452 01:08:39,554 --> 01:08:43,724 It's just that we need to kind of think about the numbers, right? 1453 01:08:43,875 --> 01:08:46,484 The pandemic was an orgy of fiscal spending. 1454 01:08:48,825 --> 01:08:54,825 It was, you know, 5 trillion in basically four years. 1455 01:08:56,535 --> 01:09:02,445 So, uh, the current bill that just barely passed the house is 2.3 trillion 1456 01:09:02,445 --> 01:09:05,805 additional, um, deficit over 10 years. 1457 01:09:08,085 --> 01:09:12,765 So the rate of change in adding to the deficit has massively collapsed. 1458 01:09:14,025 --> 01:09:17,655 Now, the reason that I don't think President Trump campaigned 1459 01:09:17,655 --> 01:09:19,095 on fiscal conservatism at all. 1460 01:09:20,535 --> 01:09:22,095 He campaigned on prophecy. 1461 01:09:22,275 --> 01:09:27,525 He, his promises and, you know, various think tanks, like actually 1462 01:09:27,645 --> 01:09:31,725 tried to put math behind his sort of, you know, campaign promises that 1463 01:09:31,725 --> 01:09:33,555 he would think of in the moment. 1464 01:09:34,575 --> 01:09:37,635 His campaign promises, if they were actually affected, would've 1465 01:09:38,145 --> 01:09:40,545 added 10 to $15 trillion. 1466 01:09:41,085 --> 01:09:41,895 Mm-hmm. 1467 01:09:41,896 --> 01:09:42,435 To the deficit. 1468 01:09:42,779 --> 01:09:44,340 So let me just put that very clearly. 1469 01:09:44,340 --> 01:09:45,720 Let, let's take the low end of that. 1470 01:09:45,720 --> 01:09:48,240 'cause let's say 15 trillion was always going to be impossible. 1471 01:09:49,019 --> 01:09:51,210 His campaign promises would've added 10. 1472 01:09:52,410 --> 01:09:54,540 This bill adds 2.3 over 10 years. 1473 01:09:57,210 --> 01:09:59,010 So it's a fifth of what he promised. 1474 01:09:59,910 --> 01:10:05,010 And the reason for that is that the sequencing here, I think Jacob, is that it 1475 01:10:05,010 --> 01:10:09,630 was the bond market riot in November and December, which many people didn't even 1476 01:10:09,630 --> 01:10:13,650 experience, but people who trade fixed income, they definitely know it happened. 1477 01:10:14,370 --> 01:10:16,500 The Fed cut interest rates a hundred base points. 1478 01:10:17,340 --> 01:10:19,500 The fed controls the short end of the curve. 1479 01:10:19,559 --> 01:10:22,559 Usually when the Fed cuts interest rates, the long end comes down too. 1480 01:10:23,130 --> 01:10:27,809 So you, you are borrowing rates of for your mortgage or for your credit card. 1481 01:10:28,110 --> 01:10:32,250 They get adjusted lower when the fed cuts rates. 1482 01:10:32,490 --> 01:10:36,870 That didn't happen in November and December of 2024 for the first 1483 01:10:36,900 --> 01:10:38,400 time in 50 years of US history. 1484 01:10:39,360 --> 01:10:40,679 In other words, the long end. 1485 01:10:41,400 --> 01:10:44,730 Acted the way Brazil's long end would act after the election 1486 01:10:44,730 --> 01:10:45,810 of a populist president. 1487 01:10:46,860 --> 01:10:50,370 And it was that selloff in the bond market in November and December that 1488 01:10:50,370 --> 01:10:55,560 forced the house to become a lot more conservative, or not forced, 1489 01:10:55,560 --> 01:10:57,990 but gave them the sort of backing. 1490 01:10:58,530 --> 01:11:01,170 They got emboldened, oh, look at what the bond market is seeing. 1491 01:11:01,800 --> 01:11:03,750 And it forced President Trump to do two things. 1492 01:11:03,750 --> 01:11:09,930 He didn't wanna do Doge, he didn't wanna do that, but he did it because 1493 01:11:09,930 --> 01:11:13,170 of that bond market move in October, November and December as the bond 1494 01:11:13,170 --> 01:11:14,850 market was rioting due to his election. 1495 01:11:15,060 --> 01:11:18,000 And finally he selected Scott Beson for the Treasury Secretary. 1496 01:11:18,480 --> 01:11:21,300 There were rumors that Howard Lutnick had basically outmaneuvered him 1497 01:11:21,720 --> 01:11:25,380 and his call Bestin shows up last minute and actually calms down the 1498 01:11:25,380 --> 01:11:26,940 bond market just by being there. 1499 01:11:27,000 --> 01:11:28,770 He the White House, just as a human being. 1500 01:11:29,970 --> 01:11:35,010 So the sequence is this, president Trump becomes a viable candidate in September. 1501 01:11:35,010 --> 01:11:37,170 People realize he's gonna probably cook Harris. 1502 01:11:38,730 --> 01:11:41,070 Bond market starts agitating higher and higher. 1503 01:11:41,070 --> 01:11:47,460 It gets to 4.8% of the 10 year yield, and it was that move from 3.6 to 4.8. 1504 01:11:47,460 --> 01:11:48,750 That freaks out everyone. 1505 01:11:49,290 --> 01:11:49,440 Jacob Shapiro: Mm-hmm. 1506 01:11:49,740 --> 01:11:52,980 Marko Papic: And that leads to Doge Scott, treasury Secretary, and the 1507 01:11:52,980 --> 01:11:57,570 House of Representatives becomes emboldened to ask, ask for cuts. 1508 01:11:57,960 --> 01:12:02,040 What we have in this bill is something that nobody really expected last 1509 01:12:02,040 --> 01:12:05,790 year, which is that there will be cuts to offset some of the spending. 1510 01:12:07,110 --> 01:12:11,760 And so instead of $10 trillion, addition to the deficit, we get 2.3 trillion. 1511 01:12:12,060 --> 01:12:13,530 Now, is it fiscal conservatism? 1512 01:12:13,560 --> 01:12:16,020 Well, no, because they're adding to the deficit. 1513 01:12:17,250 --> 01:12:23,670 But I need to remind you that extension of 2017, tax cut alone, 1514 01:12:24,270 --> 01:12:27,150 just that extension is $5 trillion. 1515 01:12:27,180 --> 01:12:32,910 4.8. So the fact that we're only adding 2.3 trillion to the deficit over the next 1516 01:12:33,450 --> 01:12:36,300 10 years is to me a shocking outcome. 1517 01:12:36,630 --> 01:12:42,210 Unexpected outcome because it means that that $5 trillion bill to 1518 01:12:42,210 --> 01:12:44,760 just keep our tax rates the same. 1519 01:12:44,760 --> 01:12:45,750 Let me just be clear. 1520 01:12:46,020 --> 01:12:47,670 This isn't about cutting taxes. 1521 01:12:48,120 --> 01:12:54,090 It's about keeping the current legislative tax base the way it is, that in of 1522 01:12:54,090 --> 01:12:58,200 itself costs money just to keep the taxes the same, costs money because 1523 01:12:58,440 --> 01:12:59,970 in 2017, they were not paid for it. 1524 01:12:59,970 --> 01:13:03,540 Therefore, the reconciliation bill required it to expire seven years later. 1525 01:13:03,870 --> 01:13:07,440 We are seven years later, eight years later, 2025. 1526 01:13:08,370 --> 01:13:13,170 The legislation expires at the end of this year, that 2017, so we're spending 1527 01:13:13,200 --> 01:13:19,290 5 trillion purely on keeping things the way they are, and yet somehow 1528 01:13:19,290 --> 01:13:23,850 they find enough cuts so that the deficit only expands 2.3 trillion. 1529 01:13:25,215 --> 01:13:26,865 Now, a couple of things on this. 1530 01:13:27,135 --> 01:13:29,445 I'm the guy who coined the term human steeper. 1531 01:13:29,595 --> 01:13:30,315 President Trump is. 1532 01:13:30,765 --> 01:13:30,855 Mm-hmm. 1533 01:13:31,095 --> 01:13:32,145 Means that there's a sell off. 1534 01:13:32,145 --> 01:13:34,785 But that already happened, and I think a lot of people look at this 1535 01:13:34,785 --> 01:13:37,095 bill and they're saying like, oh, here comes the bond market riots. 1536 01:13:37,515 --> 01:13:38,565 And I'm like, no, no, no, no, no, no. 1537 01:13:38,865 --> 01:13:42,105 It was the bond market riot in November and December that got us this bill. 1538 01:13:42,430 --> 01:13:42,650 So 1539 01:13:45,075 --> 01:13:49,305 I'm not sure there's gonna be another really significant sell off in bonds 1540 01:13:49,305 --> 01:13:54,285 because look, at the end of the day, the bond market always knew the 1541 01:13:54,285 --> 01:13:57,135 2017 legislation would be extended. 1542 01:13:57,705 --> 01:14:00,675 It'd always do the math of it, that it's $5 trillion. 1543 01:14:01,065 --> 01:14:04,425 And it always knew that it would be highly unlikely to find 1544 01:14:04,515 --> 01:14:06,255 enough cuts to offset all of it. 1545 01:14:06,285 --> 01:14:10,335 So the fact that the deficit increases by 2 trillion is not that much. 1546 01:14:10,335 --> 01:14:13,845 Plus the tariff tariff level of 10% is probably gonna stay. 1547 01:14:13,905 --> 01:14:14,175 Right. 1548 01:14:14,205 --> 01:14:17,745 I think we all at this point agree, Jacob, that we're gonna have some sort 1549 01:14:17,745 --> 01:14:23,415 of a flat tariff of about 10% that brings in probably a hundred to 200 billion. 1550 01:14:23,985 --> 01:14:28,395 So if you actually add that to this bill, honestly, it's kind of offset. 1551 01:14:30,565 --> 01:14:30,825 So 1552 01:14:32,025 --> 01:14:33,105 Jacob Shapiro: you're, you're zagging. 1553 01:14:33,105 --> 01:14:33,765 No, I like it. 1554 01:14:33,945 --> 01:14:36,945 Marko Papic: So, so what I'm saying to you is like, you have a shocking outcome. 1555 01:14:38,325 --> 01:14:40,785 You have most of President Trump's priorities that he talked 1556 01:14:40,785 --> 01:14:42,465 about during his, uh, campaign. 1557 01:14:42,465 --> 01:14:45,945 You know, he talked about lower corporate taxes, he talked about 1558 01:14:45,945 --> 01:14:47,325 lowering corporate taxes and stuff. 1559 01:14:47,595 --> 01:14:49,605 None of that stuff is gonna happen, Jacob. 1560 01:14:49,635 --> 01:14:50,145 None of it. 1561 01:14:50,895 --> 01:14:54,615 All he's gonna get is taxes and tips are gonna go down. 1562 01:14:54,825 --> 01:14:55,005 Yay. 1563 01:14:56,175 --> 01:14:56,865 Alright, cool. 1564 01:14:57,135 --> 01:15:00,675 You know, like, I don't see like how much, whatever. 1565 01:15:00,675 --> 01:15:02,565 I'm not gonna perjure myself here. 1566 01:15:02,565 --> 01:15:04,125 I was gonna say, if I was gonna do tips, I, 1567 01:15:06,480 --> 01:15:08,480 I mean you plead a favor. 1568 01:15:08,700 --> 01:15:09,040 Uh, alright. 1569 01:15:09,165 --> 01:15:09,225 You 1570 01:15:09,225 --> 01:15:09,855 Jacob Shapiro: heard it here first. 1571 01:15:09,855 --> 01:15:11,865 We're, we're now charging for our analysis. 1572 01:15:11,925 --> 01:15:12,015 Yes. 1573 01:15:12,045 --> 01:15:15,585 Just the dollar per, uh, per uh, per appearance. 1574 01:15:15,705 --> 01:15:18,375 Marko Papic: We got a tip charge, but no, look, here's what I'm seeing. 1575 01:15:18,705 --> 01:15:20,115 Like you've got. 1576 01:15:21,390 --> 01:15:24,720 The tax cuts from 2017 to to be extended. 1577 01:15:25,140 --> 01:15:26,580 I hate the way we frame that. 1578 01:15:27,270 --> 01:15:29,430 That's not extending tax cuts. 1579 01:15:29,820 --> 01:15:31,110 Let's, let me rephrase it. 1580 01:15:31,110 --> 01:15:34,950 It's gonna cost $5 trillion to keep our tax codes the same. 1581 01:15:36,060 --> 01:15:36,420 Okay. 1582 01:15:36,570 --> 01:15:37,470 So that's what we're gonna do. 1583 01:15:37,665 --> 01:15:42,930 We're gonna get some taxes and tips, mortgage, like modify a 1584 01:15:42,930 --> 01:15:44,190 little bit, some salt stuff. 1585 01:15:46,020 --> 01:15:49,440 And then we're gonna do a bunch of cuts to make sure that it's only 2 trillion. 1586 01:15:49,590 --> 01:15:53,040 And then we're gonna add a VAT tax on our consumers also 1587 01:15:53,040 --> 01:15:54,480 called the 10% import tariff. 1588 01:15:54,660 --> 01:15:56,100 Yeah, let's call that for what it is. 1589 01:15:56,310 --> 01:15:58,530 It's a federal VAT tax. 1590 01:15:59,070 --> 01:15:59,820 Effectively. 1591 01:15:59,910 --> 01:16:00,120 I see. 1592 01:16:00,570 --> 01:16:05,400 So actually, I think President Trump is running on a Nikki Haley policy 1593 01:16:05,430 --> 01:16:12,690 because they're going to cut Medicaid benefits, they're going to cut welfare, 1594 01:16:13,020 --> 01:16:17,040 they're going to have cuts, and they're raising consumption taxes on Americans 1595 01:16:17,040 --> 01:16:18,360 through that 10% import tariff. 1596 01:16:20,400 --> 01:16:24,389 And that gets you to very little fiscal thrust, and there's gonna be very little 1597 01:16:24,389 --> 01:16:26,519 stimulative effort out of this bill. 1598 01:16:26,639 --> 01:16:30,914 It's basically non-existent, that 5 trillion, again, we're spending 5 1599 01:16:30,914 --> 01:16:32,429 trillion to keep our taxes the same. 1600 01:16:33,750 --> 01:16:35,879 We're gonna expand the deficit over the next 10 years. 1601 01:16:36,000 --> 01:16:37,349 Jacob byte 5 trillion. 1602 01:16:37,830 --> 01:16:42,299 And it will have no impact on consumption or investment in this country. 1603 01:16:42,299 --> 01:16:45,509 You are not gonna change your behavior next year if your taxes the same. 1604 01:16:46,799 --> 01:16:49,830 It's not like you actually thought that 2017 tax cuts would expire. 1605 01:16:49,860 --> 01:16:50,490 Nobody did. 1606 01:16:50,730 --> 01:16:52,589 If Kamala Harris won as the president. 1607 01:16:53,715 --> 01:16:56,595 President Harris would've extended the 2017 tax cuts. 1608 01:16:56,805 --> 01:17:00,555 Like obviously no one's gonna let taxes go back up. 1609 01:17:00,555 --> 01:17:02,745 That does, like, doesn't happen in America, you know? 1610 01:17:03,045 --> 01:17:04,995 Jacob Shapiro: Yeah, no, I, I love the zag. 1611 01:17:05,055 --> 01:17:07,335 Uh, and it's good for the listeners that you and I would take opposite 1612 01:17:07,335 --> 01:17:09,585 sides of this a little bit, and, and maybe you're, you're right, 1613 01:17:09,585 --> 01:17:10,755 like maybe I'm too far into it. 1614 01:17:10,755 --> 01:17:13,215 And also I think it's worth saying like, this still has to get through the Senate. 1615 01:17:13,245 --> 01:17:15,945 We could see significant changes in the Senate, you know. 1616 01:17:16,120 --> 01:17:17,050 Is it 2 trillion? 1617 01:17:17,050 --> 01:17:18,490 Could it go up to 5 trillion? 1618 01:17:18,490 --> 01:17:22,090 What is the cost if you factor in increased interest rates over time? 1619 01:17:22,090 --> 01:17:24,700 Like there's, you know, what does military spending look like? 1620 01:17:24,760 --> 01:17:26,410 Uh, is the growth real or not? 1621 01:17:26,410 --> 01:17:29,470 I think one of my biggest criticisms would be that we're not, the 1622 01:17:29,470 --> 01:17:31,930 United States is not setting itself up for meaningful growth. 1623 01:17:31,930 --> 01:17:34,990 Like, there isn't meaningful investment in things like infrastructure or 1624 01:17:34,990 --> 01:17:37,480 innovation that is part of the spending. 1625 01:17:37,480 --> 01:17:39,640 So this notion that you're gonna grow your way out of some of these 1626 01:17:39,640 --> 01:17:42,190 things, like, 'cause part of this, like they're projecting higher growth 1627 01:17:42,190 --> 01:17:44,860 rates along with that, and I think some of that growth is kind of empty. 1628 01:17:45,250 --> 01:17:48,430 Um, I, I think you're also right to say that, um, Trump did not 1629 01:17:48,820 --> 01:17:50,860 campaign only on fiscal conservatism. 1630 01:17:50,860 --> 01:17:52,540 He talked out of both sides of his mouth. 1631 01:17:52,540 --> 01:17:54,340 So when he was with people, yeah. 1632 01:17:54,340 --> 01:17:56,710 You know, he wanted to talk to the fiscal conservatives and he wanted 1633 01:17:56,710 --> 01:17:59,860 to talk to the, you know, the populace and he merged them together. 1634 01:18:00,220 --> 01:18:03,580 Um, but I always said at his core, he, he never wanted anything to do 1635 01:18:03,580 --> 01:18:05,530 with the fiscal conservatives, but. 1636 01:18:06,135 --> 01:18:10,575 In the nod to Doge and to Elon Musk, like he did all of this grandstanding 1637 01:18:10,575 --> 01:18:14,535 cutting U-S-A-I-D, cutting innovation funds, things like that without much 1638 01:18:14,535 --> 01:18:18,764 benefit to the budget, actually probably damaged the US in the long run with some 1639 01:18:18,764 --> 01:18:21,315 of these intangibles that the United States has always been so good at. 1640 01:18:21,405 --> 01:18:24,495 And now he's going back to his tried and true sort of populace. 1641 01:18:24,495 --> 01:18:25,845 I'm gonna blow out the deficit thing. 1642 01:18:25,845 --> 01:18:29,894 And no, I don't think that this shows any sense of, um, of measure. 1643 01:18:29,894 --> 01:18:31,995 You mentioned Medicaid, they're not gonna cut Medicaid. 1644 01:18:31,995 --> 01:18:33,855 Let me get this quote from President Trump. 1645 01:18:34,215 --> 01:18:39,855 Uh, that, uh, two Republicans anonymous, anonymously told, uh, Politico that he'd 1646 01:18:39,855 --> 01:18:43,455 been meeting with, um, some conservative hardliners on the budget who were 1647 01:18:43,455 --> 01:18:45,105 pushing for deeper cuts to Medicaid. 1648 01:18:45,224 --> 01:18:47,415 And here is the quote from President Trump to them. 1649 01:18:47,625 --> 01:18:49,995 Quote, don't fuck around with Medicaid. 1650 01:18:50,144 --> 01:18:50,745 End quote. 1651 01:18:51,224 --> 01:18:53,325 Like, he's not, he's not trying to cut. 1652 01:18:54,450 --> 01:18:56,790 I know, but we're like, we still have to go to the Senate, like, 1653 01:18:56,790 --> 01:18:59,370 and who, who says he is gonna sign, like he's gonna be the one that 1654 01:18:59,370 --> 01:19:00,959 was like arbit of getting Medicaid. 1655 01:19:01,205 --> 01:19:03,059 I, I don't even know what's gonna get through the Senate. 1656 01:19:03,059 --> 01:19:06,120 Like, I I understand that we're early here, but, uh, I don't know. 1657 01:19:06,179 --> 01:19:07,650 I I'm, I'll take the other side. 1658 01:19:07,889 --> 01:19:10,559 Marko Papic: Look, it's 20 20 15 to 2014. 1659 01:19:11,129 --> 01:19:15,209 What I would say to you is that if this bill gets changed, it will be 1660 01:19:15,209 --> 01:19:19,889 changed towards a more conservative side, not towards the more provate 1661 01:19:19,889 --> 01:19:21,660 side, because he Well, that'll be 1662 01:19:21,660 --> 01:19:22,080 Jacob Shapiro: interesting. 1663 01:19:22,349 --> 01:19:25,559 Marko Papic: No, no, because he is not a conservative, 1664 01:19:27,660 --> 01:19:28,259 so you're right. 1665 01:19:28,259 --> 01:19:32,519 He, he wants the bill to be bigger, but the conservative in the house are 1666 01:19:32,519 --> 01:19:36,719 the ones that are holding that back and they will be aided by the bond market. 1667 01:19:36,780 --> 01:19:36,870 Mm-hmm. 1668 01:19:37,500 --> 01:19:40,769 So what they did overnight is they actually, so the 1669 01:19:40,769 --> 01:19:43,740 Medicaid, uh, means testing. 1670 01:19:43,799 --> 01:19:46,589 So you need to show that you're working and so on, or trying 1671 01:19:46,589 --> 01:19:48,509 to get a job to get benefits. 1672 01:19:49,035 --> 01:19:53,955 That was pulled back by three years from 2029 when he's out of office to 2026. 1673 01:19:54,344 --> 01:19:54,434 Jacob Shapiro: Mm-hmm. 1674 01:19:55,155 --> 01:19:56,565 Marko Papic: In order to pass the house. 1675 01:19:57,075 --> 01:20:01,545 And so my my point is that they did mess with Medicaid and he 1676 01:20:01,545 --> 01:20:02,804 is happy that it got through. 1677 01:20:03,134 --> 01:20:06,644 I'm, I'm not sure the Senate is gonna modify the bill that much. 1678 01:20:06,644 --> 01:20:09,915 I mean, maybe they will, but I think that this people confuse who's 1679 01:20:09,915 --> 01:20:11,415 more on President Trump's side. 1680 01:20:11,804 --> 01:20:15,795 I think everyone over indexes on 2017 experience when it was the Senate 1681 01:20:15,795 --> 01:20:17,415 that stood against him on Obamacare. 1682 01:20:17,955 --> 01:20:18,075 Jacob Shapiro: Mm-hmm. 1683 01:20:18,315 --> 01:20:21,644 Marko Papic: This time around, throughout this entire experience of following 1684 01:20:21,644 --> 01:20:25,605 this budget process since January very closely it's been the house that's 1685 01:20:25,605 --> 01:20:27,344 been resisting him, not the Senate. 1686 01:20:27,344 --> 01:20:31,365 So, I mean, if the Senate wants this bill to pass, they need to kind of pass 1687 01:20:31,365 --> 01:20:34,184 it quickly and just like, like end it. 1688 01:20:35,205 --> 01:20:39,434 Because I don't think we're gonna get, this is as profligate, which, 1689 01:20:39,434 --> 01:20:44,415 if that's a GRE word for anyone, that means this is as that populous 1690 01:20:44,924 --> 01:20:46,424 spend heavy as you're gonna get. 1691 01:20:48,900 --> 01:20:51,870 Uh, it just cannot, you're not gonna be able to get it through the house 1692 01:20:52,740 --> 01:20:54,300 if you get any more aggressive. 1693 01:20:54,330 --> 01:20:57,720 And the bond market is sitting in the sideline right now. 1694 01:20:58,710 --> 01:21:02,460 And if you are right and I'm wrong on the politics, then 1695 01:21:02,460 --> 01:21:03,750 the bond market gets involved. 1696 01:21:03,810 --> 01:21:04,380 Mm-hmm. 1697 01:21:04,860 --> 01:21:09,210 And then I'm right again because, you know, and we saw this in 1698 01:21:09,210 --> 01:21:14,370 January again, the house started talking about cuts, not last year. 1699 01:21:15,810 --> 01:21:19,110 Donald Trump and his, Cory and his supporters did not talk 1700 01:21:19,110 --> 01:21:20,520 about any cuts on anything. 1701 01:21:20,610 --> 01:21:25,980 At any point in the campaign, doge came in and said, oh, we can fire bureaucrats. 1702 01:21:26,010 --> 01:21:28,260 Oh, because there's so many of them and they get paid so much. 1703 01:21:28,260 --> 01:21:29,340 No, that's not gonna do anything. 1704 01:21:29,340 --> 01:21:33,330 So Doge never seriously contemplated, actually, like anyone who understands how 1705 01:21:33,330 --> 01:21:37,890 America works, understands there, like, you cannot cut $2 trillion out of American 1706 01:21:37,890 --> 01:21:39,570 spending without going to Congress. 1707 01:21:40,515 --> 01:21:42,945 Jacob Shapiro: Well, EII think Elon thought he could, but to your point, 1708 01:21:42,945 --> 01:21:44,175 I don't think he understands America 1709 01:21:44,805 --> 01:21:44,925 Marko Papic: well. 1710 01:21:45,015 --> 01:21:46,395 Also, how appropriation works. 1711 01:21:46,395 --> 01:21:48,315 Like you can't just say like, we're not gonna take the money. 1712 01:21:48,315 --> 01:21:48,525 No, no. 1713 01:21:48,525 --> 01:21:51,465 It was appropriated by congress, by law. 1714 01:21:51,525 --> 01:21:54,705 You know, you gotta take the money, how you use it, you can burn it in api, 1715 01:21:54,735 --> 01:21:56,535 but it's been appropriated by Congress. 1716 01:21:56,535 --> 01:22:00,945 And so the issue is that the House of Representatives really revolted against 1717 01:22:00,945 --> 01:22:07,425 Trump in December when they denied him his request to punt the debt ceiling to 2029. 1718 01:22:07,995 --> 01:22:09,915 Nobody really paid attention to that, except for me. 1719 01:22:10,965 --> 01:22:15,645 To me, that was a really big moment when republicans in his own party after 1720 01:22:15,705 --> 01:22:19,155 an extraordinary electoral victory by the president, said no to him. 1721 01:22:19,425 --> 01:22:21,945 And then in January they started adding cuts. 1722 01:22:22,365 --> 01:22:26,685 And I think that the Trump administration basically gave into the cuts at all 1723 01:22:26,685 --> 01:22:30,885 any cuts because of the bond market action from November to January. 1724 01:22:31,515 --> 01:22:35,295 And so, unless they want bond yields to go back up to 4.8, where they peaked, 1725 01:22:36,135 --> 01:22:38,175 um, and if they wanted to go to five. 1726 01:22:38,684 --> 01:22:42,014 Then have a carnage in stock market, which they can't control at that point. 1727 01:22:42,014 --> 01:22:44,865 It's not about tariff levels, it's not about negotiations with China. 1728 01:22:45,165 --> 01:22:48,764 This is now bond market saying, we don't like your deficits, but you are right. 1729 01:22:48,795 --> 01:22:50,025 Deficits will expand. 1730 01:22:50,115 --> 01:22:55,514 And actually what I think Jacob just says to us is the following, the delta 1731 01:22:55,695 --> 01:22:57,915 in adding to the deficit is collapsing. 1732 01:22:58,394 --> 01:22:59,985 You know, we went from adding like mm-hmm. 1733 01:23:00,224 --> 01:23:06,375 2 trillion in one year to 2 trillion in one year to 2 trillion over 10 years. 1734 01:23:06,405 --> 01:23:09,224 That's a huge delta change towards conservatism. 1735 01:23:10,125 --> 01:23:13,304 But it's not enough because to your point, wait a minute, it doesn't decrease 1736 01:23:13,304 --> 01:23:15,014 the deficit over the next seven years. 1737 01:23:15,014 --> 01:23:15,855 Exactly. 1738 01:23:16,514 --> 01:23:20,565 And so what that means is that the difficult work will be left for either 1739 01:23:20,565 --> 01:23:26,595 the last two years of Trump like presidency or the presidency in 2028. 1740 01:23:27,554 --> 01:23:28,724 Whoever gets elected. 1741 01:23:28,815 --> 01:23:33,345 If it's a OC, she's gonna no but, but she's gonna deal with 1742 01:23:33,345 --> 01:23:36,735 the deficit one way or another, and she's got a solution to it. 1743 01:23:37,920 --> 01:23:41,400 You know, it's raising taxes or maybe it's Nikki Healy and she's 1744 01:23:41,400 --> 01:23:42,780 gonna have a solution to it as well. 1745 01:23:42,780 --> 01:23:43,860 It's gonna be a little bit different. 1746 01:23:44,100 --> 01:23:45,150 It's gonna be cutting spending. 1747 01:23:45,840 --> 01:23:51,540 So I think that the US is on an inexorable path towards fiscal conservatives. 1748 01:23:51,630 --> 01:23:52,980 That's like, what's just gonna happen? 1749 01:23:53,580 --> 01:23:56,915 Jacob Shapiro: Or it's Donald Jr. Um, while we're talking, Marco, I 1750 01:23:56,915 --> 01:24:00,210 was just seeing the Economist, uh, uh, release its cover for this week. 1751 01:24:00,210 --> 01:24:02,130 It's the remarkable rise of Poland. 1752 01:24:02,220 --> 01:24:03,570 I feel so bad for Poland. 1753 01:24:03,570 --> 01:24:04,770 I've been bullish Poland too. 1754 01:24:04,770 --> 01:24:06,870 God, the economist just jinxed them while we've been talking. 1755 01:24:06,870 --> 01:24:08,280 Marko Papic: Well, no, but we didn't put them in 1220. 1756 01:24:08,280 --> 01:24:08,850 Yes. 1757 01:24:08,910 --> 01:24:09,150 Jacob Shapiro: Right. 1758 01:24:09,240 --> 01:24:10,620 Yeah, we didn't, we we did it. 1759 01:24:10,620 --> 01:24:11,610 We, we did it really good. 1760 01:24:12,390 --> 01:24:16,080 Um, okay, second thing, let's turn to, uh, we've talked about the Middle 1761 01:24:16,080 --> 01:24:18,660 East quite a bit, so we're only gonna spend a little bit of time on this, 1762 01:24:18,660 --> 01:24:22,080 but I do think it is worth talking about this a little bit, um, because 1763 01:24:22,080 --> 01:24:25,530 you've had the Trump administration really change its messaging on Israel. 1764 01:24:26,205 --> 01:24:30,285 Um, trying to get Israel tougher on stopping bombing Gaza into 1765 01:24:30,285 --> 01:24:31,425 the middle of the middle Ages. 1766 01:24:31,425 --> 01:24:33,735 I mean, it's already done that it's, I guess now it's trying to return 1767 01:24:33,735 --> 01:24:35,625 them, return them to the Bronze Age. 1768 01:24:35,655 --> 01:24:36,285 I don't know. 1769 01:24:36,885 --> 01:24:39,645 Um, so, you know, Israel has stepped up its attacks in Gaza. 1770 01:24:39,645 --> 01:24:42,465 I think it sort of sees the writing on the wall and is doing as much as it can. 1771 01:24:42,675 --> 01:24:46,365 You've also had reports, silly reports, because Israel can't attack 1772 01:24:46,365 --> 01:24:49,845 Iran without US support, but reports that Israel is considering an attack 1773 01:24:49,845 --> 01:24:52,305 on Iran because they're worried about some kind of nuclear deal. 1774 01:24:52,365 --> 01:24:55,725 And then the big news from yesterday that two Israeli diplomats were shot, 1775 01:24:55,815 --> 01:25:01,335 um, outside an event at Capital Jewish Museum in Washington, dc Uh, the guy 1776 01:25:01,335 --> 01:25:04,965 who they suspect did it as he was being hauled off into custody shouting free 1777 01:25:04,965 --> 01:25:07,305 Palestine at, at the top of his lungs. 1778 01:25:07,845 --> 01:25:08,355 Um. 1779 01:25:09,090 --> 01:25:11,760 And I mean, I, we can cook on this in a bunch of different ways. 1780 01:25:11,760 --> 01:25:14,519 I'm gonna risk getting canceled here and just point this out. 1781 01:25:14,519 --> 01:25:16,380 And here's where I'll bathe myself in indifference. 1782 01:25:16,380 --> 01:25:19,320 And here's where I'm, uh, honestly, probably more cynical about 1783 01:25:19,320 --> 01:25:21,660 this issue than probably anybody else you're gonna listen to. 1784 01:25:21,660 --> 01:25:27,269 Because there were so many, um, social media posts, official statements 1785 01:25:27,269 --> 01:25:31,080 about we condemn antisemitism, this is horrible, et cetera, et cetera. 1786 01:25:31,470 --> 01:25:33,750 Uh, but these, first of all, this was an assassination of 1787 01:25:33,750 --> 01:25:36,420 Israeli diplomats on US soil. 1788 01:25:36,690 --> 01:25:39,420 So it wasn't, they weren't targeted because they were Jews. 1789 01:25:39,450 --> 01:25:42,780 They were targeted because they were representing the Israeli government. 1790 01:25:42,780 --> 01:25:46,380 That doesn't make it okay, but there's this line between antisemitism and 1791 01:25:46,380 --> 01:25:48,480 anti-Zionism that always gets blurred. 1792 01:25:48,870 --> 01:25:51,300 Um, and I think it's just, first of all, worth pointing that out. 1793 01:25:51,300 --> 01:25:54,030 So if you're condemning the assault on these two people, 1794 01:25:54,030 --> 01:25:57,780 what you're actually condemning is somebody going after Zionism. 1795 01:25:58,544 --> 01:26:02,264 Not Jews and a lot of the people who are criticizing the antisemitism, it's 1796 01:26:02,264 --> 01:26:07,485 o it's safe to criticize antisemitism, but it's not safe to, um, criticize 1797 01:26:07,485 --> 01:26:11,054 anti-Zionism because Zionism, they're, that's the genocidal maniacs, the 1798 01:26:11,054 --> 01:26:13,905 Zionists need to be destroyed, but of course, don't kill the Jews. 1799 01:26:13,905 --> 01:26:16,995 It's like, Hey, you, you say this stuff long enough about one thing, 1800 01:26:16,995 --> 01:26:17,985 they're gonna do the other thing. 1801 01:26:17,985 --> 01:26:20,384 I don't know if that was very articulate, but that that's 0.1. 1802 01:26:20,834 --> 01:26:25,394 And the second thing I just want to say here is that no matter how 1803 01:26:25,424 --> 01:26:30,344 morally reprehensible you think, what Israel's actions and Gaza or how 1804 01:26:30,375 --> 01:26:33,974 morally reprehensible, reprehensible, you think Israel's actions and Gaza. 1805 01:26:34,205 --> 01:26:37,115 Are, and I happen to think they are morally gross. 1806 01:26:37,115 --> 01:26:40,325 I don't think you can argue any other way, like the extent to which we're here 1807 01:26:40,325 --> 01:26:42,184 now, like it's morally reprehensible. 1808 01:26:42,214 --> 01:26:44,405 Even if you bathe yourself in a difference, like on an objective 1809 01:26:44,405 --> 01:26:48,754 level, um, every time something like this happens, even the people who 1810 01:26:48,754 --> 01:26:52,519 would support criticism of the Israeli government, um, on the insider, 1811 01:26:52,519 --> 01:26:53,644 like, well, that could have been me. 1812 01:26:54,065 --> 01:26:57,155 And so like the strategic logic for having a safe homeland for 1813 01:26:57,155 --> 01:26:59,825 Jews, uh, makes a lot of sense. 1814 01:26:59,974 --> 01:27:03,634 And we have to look the other way because if we don't, like, they're just, they're 1815 01:27:03,634 --> 01:27:05,224 just gonna try and kill us all again. 1816 01:27:06,015 --> 01:27:08,955 Um, and so it, it excu, it excuses all manner of sins. 1817 01:27:08,955 --> 01:27:11,925 I think I, I'm, I'm not saying that it does excuse the sins, I'm just 1818 01:27:11,925 --> 01:27:17,055 saying that it, like, it creates this dissonance from the exact people you need. 1819 01:27:17,115 --> 01:27:18,465 You need their minds to change. 1820 01:27:18,615 --> 01:27:21,435 Like they're also getting attacked in this different vector and so 1821 01:27:21,435 --> 01:27:24,195 they're gonna look the other way and continue doing what they're doing 1822 01:27:24,195 --> 01:27:27,075 because they have post-traumatic stress disorder of their own. 1823 01:27:27,075 --> 01:27:29,505 So, I dunno, there's a lot in there that could get me canceled. 1824 01:27:29,505 --> 01:27:31,035 But, uh, take it any direction you want. 1825 01:27:31,935 --> 01:27:33,885 Marko Papic: I am not gonna take it in any direction. 1826 01:27:34,425 --> 01:27:34,815 You're not. 1827 01:27:34,815 --> 01:27:35,565 Okay, cool. 1828 01:27:35,625 --> 01:27:38,265 No, I think this is one of those where you have to cook yourself. 1829 01:27:38,775 --> 01:27:39,945 Uh, I think you get a pass. 1830 01:27:39,975 --> 01:27:40,125 I'm 1831 01:27:40,125 --> 01:27:41,145 Jacob Shapiro: cooking myself here. 1832 01:27:41,145 --> 01:27:42,945 I don't know why I'm, I'm suggesting something. 1833 01:27:42,945 --> 01:27:45,585 I just, there was something that really bothered me about this reflexive, 1834 01:27:45,585 --> 01:27:50,115 oh, we condemn antisemitism and it's like, okay, like bullshit. 1835 01:27:50,685 --> 01:27:52,455 Like nobody condemns antisemitism. 1836 01:27:52,695 --> 01:27:53,235 I, I dunno. 1837 01:27:53,505 --> 01:27:53,985 It just bothered. 1838 01:27:53,985 --> 01:27:55,965 Marko Papic: Well, no, I think, I think what you're saying is that, 1839 01:27:56,055 --> 01:28:02,025 uh, you can't actually, I think what you're saying is that you 1840 01:28:02,025 --> 01:28:04,305 cannot just create these platitudes. 1841 01:28:04,695 --> 01:28:07,844 About condemning antisemitism. 1842 01:28:08,415 --> 01:28:12,224 If you then don't accept at least some level of Zionism, 1843 01:28:15,195 --> 01:28:17,355 you know, let's say, you know what I mean? 1844 01:28:17,385 --> 01:28:22,635 If, if, if antisemitism is like from zero to a 10, and if we all 1845 01:28:22,635 --> 01:28:25,665 agree, then only zero is acceptable. 1846 01:28:25,844 --> 01:28:30,105 Only zero antisemitism is acceptable on planet Earth. 1847 01:28:30,255 --> 01:28:30,344 Mm-hmm. 1848 01:28:30,585 --> 01:28:33,240 You can't be like, oh, well I'm a two outta 10 antisemite. 1849 01:28:33,750 --> 01:28:35,894 Well, that's two outta 10 too many. 1850 01:28:35,894 --> 01:28:42,495 You know, like, so if only zero is acceptable, then if there's a zero to a 1851 01:28:42,495 --> 01:28:50,715 10 on Zionism, you, you have to accept some Zionism because Zionism, which is 1852 01:28:50,715 --> 01:28:56,235 a very loaded term today, but really it was just in my very sort of bizarre 1853 01:28:56,235 --> 01:29:02,835 nihilist interpretation of what Zionism is, is it's basically 19th century I. 1854 01:29:03,345 --> 01:29:05,835 European style nation state movement. 1855 01:29:06,015 --> 01:29:08,415 In other words, Jewish, it's Jewish 1856 01:29:08,415 --> 01:29:09,135 Jacob Shapiro: nationalism. 1857 01:29:09,225 --> 01:29:12,465 It's the only nationalist movement in the world that has a different word for it. 1858 01:29:12,465 --> 01:29:15,645 It's like, okay, French nationalism fine, but Jewish nationalism. 1859 01:29:15,645 --> 01:29:16,695 Oh, but that's Zionism. 1860 01:29:16,695 --> 01:29:17,355 That's poisonous. 1861 01:29:17,955 --> 01:29:19,245 Marko Papic: I would even say nationalism. 1862 01:29:19,245 --> 01:29:22,815 The word nationalism is now also been denigrated in many ways. 1863 01:29:22,965 --> 01:29:26,865 But in the 19th century, like Jews are sitting in Vienna, they're sitting in 1864 01:29:26,865 --> 01:29:30,165 Minsk, they're sitting in Thessaloniki, they're sitting in all these, uh, 1865 01:29:30,165 --> 01:29:34,575 cities in Europe, and they're looking at Italians creating a country out 1866 01:29:34,575 --> 01:29:36,075 of something that's never existed. 1867 01:29:36,645 --> 01:29:37,035 Right. 1868 01:29:37,185 --> 01:29:37,575 Right. 1869 01:29:37,755 --> 01:29:37,845 Mm-hmm. 1870 01:29:38,325 --> 01:29:41,385 I mean, if you know Italian history, what Gary BDI did is he put 1871 01:29:41,385 --> 01:29:43,905 together, oh, it looks like a boot. 1872 01:29:44,115 --> 01:29:47,895 Let's make it into Italy, like it was Rome 2000 years ago. 1873 01:29:48,405 --> 01:29:52,185 Italy is as much a Zionist entity for Italians. 1874 01:29:53,055 --> 01:29:58,815 There were people in the boot that didn't speak Italian, for God's sakes, France. 1875 01:29:58,815 --> 01:29:59,490 What France did. 1876 01:30:00,509 --> 01:30:06,420 We today speak I de France French because it's completely destroyed different 1877 01:30:06,420 --> 01:30:10,170 linguistic dialects, including some that were more like Catalan in the South. 1878 01:30:11,040 --> 01:30:14,280 So the Jews are sitting in Europe throughout the 19th century looking at 1879 01:30:14,280 --> 01:30:18,090 what's going on around them while they're being persecuted every day for being Jews. 1880 01:30:19,200 --> 01:30:19,530 Right? 1881 01:30:19,530 --> 01:30:23,340 I mean, this isn't like a a, a new phenomenon, obviously. 1882 01:30:23,940 --> 01:30:27,330 It's not a Holocaust phenomenon, it's a predates it massively. 1883 01:30:27,330 --> 01:30:30,030 So if you're Jewish and you're sitting, you're looking at Germans creating 1884 01:30:30,030 --> 01:30:34,380 Germany out of nothing, you look at Italians creating Italy out of nothing, 1885 01:30:34,830 --> 01:30:36,150 and you look at the French, okay? 1886 01:30:36,420 --> 01:30:38,700 It's not fair to say the France didn't exist. 1887 01:30:38,700 --> 01:30:42,360 It did, but it became much more dominated by El de France, French. 1888 01:30:42,389 --> 01:30:48,179 I think Zionism comes from that history, and so it's simply doing what Europeans 1889 01:30:48,179 --> 01:30:54,120 did in Europe, but for Jews somewhere, you know, anywhere it ended up being 1890 01:30:54,210 --> 01:30:57,000 Palestine, of course, we're dealing with the consequences of that decision. 1891 01:30:57,809 --> 01:30:59,429 But the point I think is that 1892 01:31:02,070 --> 01:31:03,959 I understand your point, that's all I'm saying. 1893 01:31:03,990 --> 01:31:04,924 Like you cannot, no. 1894 01:31:04,924 --> 01:31:09,929 And you cannot just say, well, I'm not, I'm a I, I I delore 1895 01:31:09,929 --> 01:31:14,309 anti-Semitism, but you know, Zionism in the Jewish state are evil. 1896 01:31:15,000 --> 01:31:17,490 And the point is, well, actually one solves for the other. 1897 01:31:17,730 --> 01:31:17,940 You know? 1898 01:31:17,945 --> 01:31:18,839 And I, and I get that. 1899 01:31:19,080 --> 01:31:25,740 The question I have is, is there a pursuit of Zionism that actually 1900 01:31:25,769 --> 01:31:29,940 is going to create stability over the next hundred years for. 1901 01:31:30,390 --> 01:31:31,050 Israelis. 1902 01:31:32,430 --> 01:31:33,300 Jacob Shapiro: Yeah, probably not. 1903 01:31:33,300 --> 01:31:34,650 And I appreciate your use of the dials. 1904 01:31:34,650 --> 01:31:36,570 'cause what I said was probably a little bit too flippant. 1905 01:31:36,570 --> 01:31:39,420 I'm sure the earlier stuff will get aggregated, but like, think of it this 1906 01:31:39,420 --> 01:31:43,800 way, if you're a 10 on anti-Zionism, what that means is you think the Jews 1907 01:31:43,800 --> 01:31:45,270 should not be allowed to have a state. 1908 01:31:45,330 --> 01:31:45,810 Exactly. 1909 01:31:45,810 --> 01:31:47,040 And that is anti-Semitism. 1910 01:31:47,220 --> 01:31:47,400 Yes. 1911 01:31:47,430 --> 01:31:50,040 That means the destruction of the Jews full stop. 1912 01:31:50,250 --> 01:31:54,480 Now that's one position you can be critical of Zionism and say. 1913 01:31:54,875 --> 01:31:58,085 Jews, like everybody else in the world, should not commit war crimes. 1914 01:31:58,144 --> 01:32:00,935 And if they do, they'll be punished like everybody else in the world. 1915 01:32:00,995 --> 01:32:04,655 But as a people, they do have a right to a state as legally 1916 01:32:04,655 --> 01:32:05,735 defined, blah, blah, blah. 1917 01:32:05,735 --> 01:32:08,644 And the thing that I'm going after here is I, I'm raise my hand. 1918 01:32:08,644 --> 01:32:12,665 I'm in print criticizing Zionism, like a self-critical like person 1919 01:32:12,665 --> 01:32:15,005 who has like spent a lot of his time thinking about these things. 1920 01:32:15,005 --> 01:32:18,005 Like, well, like I said, what Israel's doing, God were reprehensible. 1921 01:32:18,035 --> 01:32:21,095 But the thing that bothers me is the people who were saying, I hate 1922 01:32:21,095 --> 01:32:24,515 antisemitism, but I know I have the receipts to say, okay, but you 1923 01:32:24,515 --> 01:32:28,235 are also saying there should be no Jewish state, that it should be 1924 01:32:28,235 --> 01:32:30,185 Palestine from the river to the sea. 1925 01:32:30,575 --> 01:32:33,875 And that like, that, like you condemning antisemitism. 1926 01:32:33,875 --> 01:32:35,675 Like, I'm not, like, that's what gets me. 1927 01:32:35,765 --> 01:32:36,755 So no, 1928 01:32:36,790 --> 01:32:38,255 Marko Papic: I, I think that's perfectly fair. 1929 01:32:38,255 --> 01:32:41,405 I mean, and by the way, I do think it's anti-Semitic to say that 1930 01:32:41,405 --> 01:32:43,415 Israel should not exist, obviously. 1931 01:32:43,505 --> 01:32:45,635 Would it not be anti Italian? 1932 01:32:46,200 --> 01:32:49,410 Would it not be discriminatory towards Italians as an ethnic group? 1933 01:32:49,410 --> 01:32:53,429 If you said that Italy should not exist, we should go back to, you know, uh, the 1934 01:32:53,429 --> 01:32:57,509 papal states, as you and I actually kind of inferred earlier in this podcast, 1935 01:32:58,950 --> 01:33:03,059 but like, you know, like Italy should be split up into Kingdom of Sicily and 1936 01:33:03,059 --> 01:33:07,259 the Papal states and you know, like Venice should be its own city state. 1937 01:33:07,469 --> 01:33:09,960 Like that would be, I think, antit Italian. 1938 01:33:09,960 --> 01:33:14,460 So I think it's interesting because, you know, what I think confuses a lot 1939 01:33:14,460 --> 01:33:21,750 of people is that many people think that being Jewish is about a religion, you 1940 01:33:21,750 --> 01:33:25,469 know, and obviously I'm, I'm walking on eggshells heels because I'm not 1941 01:33:25,469 --> 01:33:33,330 Jewish, but I think that there is a, um, pretty deep historical ethnolinguistic 1942 01:33:33,389 --> 01:33:37,019 component to a Jewish identity. 1943 01:33:37,049 --> 01:33:40,650 In other words, you do not have to be observant Jew to be Jewish. 1944 01:33:42,465 --> 01:33:46,275 In particularly, in particularly because you know, when shit hits 1945 01:33:46,275 --> 01:33:50,775 the fan in history, when they come to get you, they don't ask you 1946 01:33:51,495 --> 01:33:53,175 if you can recite from the Torah. 1947 01:33:53,205 --> 01:33:53,715 You know what I mean? 1948 01:33:53,715 --> 01:33:54,525 You know what I mean? 1949 01:33:55,875 --> 01:33:56,205 Jacob Shapiro: Right. 1950 01:33:56,475 --> 01:33:56,745 Yeah. 1951 01:33:56,925 --> 01:34:00,165 No, and this goes back to the power index and why I'm so pessimistic about 1952 01:34:00,165 --> 01:34:03,135 Israel on the power index, because if you look back at the history of Jewish 1953 01:34:03,135 --> 01:34:06,105 polities in the Middle East, like getting away from the, the politics 1954 01:34:06,105 --> 01:34:08,955 and ideology, now there's a reason there haven't been that many of them. 1955 01:34:09,495 --> 01:34:11,745 And that's because this geography is hard to control. 1956 01:34:11,925 --> 01:34:16,215 And it's also because, uh, Jews are all like, are their own worst enemies. 1957 01:34:16,215 --> 01:34:17,595 They're always at each other's throats. 1958 01:34:17,595 --> 01:34:20,505 There's always different factions who hate each other and won't listen to each other. 1959 01:34:20,505 --> 01:34:23,235 And usually they start fighting each other, and then the Romans or the 1960 01:34:23,235 --> 01:34:26,385 Persians or the Babylonians or the Ottomans come in and sweep them up 1961 01:34:26,385 --> 01:34:27,975 because they can't have a unified front. 1962 01:34:28,125 --> 01:34:28,185 Hmm. 1963 01:34:28,245 --> 01:34:31,965 And the reason I'm so pessimistic about Israel over the next 30 years is that 1964 01:34:32,355 --> 01:34:35,595 you, you're seeing that internally in Israeli politics right now where you've 1965 01:34:35,595 --> 01:34:40,125 got the religious, um, demographics or increasing the secular Jews. 1966 01:34:40,800 --> 01:34:41,760 Are kind of dying out. 1967 01:34:41,760 --> 01:34:44,280 There's an apathy on the, like the left hasn't been able to meaningfully 1968 01:34:44,280 --> 01:34:48,870 challenge for, you know, um, the Israeli government in decades basically died with 1969 01:34:48,870 --> 01:34:50,850 the end of the, the peace process before. 1970 01:34:51,000 --> 01:34:54,150 There is such a large Arab population now that nobody wants to 1971 01:34:54,150 --> 01:34:56,370 work with that it basically means you're gonna get center, right? 1972 01:34:56,370 --> 01:34:58,710 Governments or the left is gonna have to work with the Arabs. 1973 01:34:58,710 --> 01:35:01,710 And for as enlightened as the left is, it really won't work with the Arabs. 1974 01:35:01,710 --> 01:35:02,430 It doesn't want to. 1975 01:35:02,670 --> 01:35:06,720 So it's just like this, uh, the, the way that Israeli demographics look going 1976 01:35:06,720 --> 01:35:09,900 forward, especially if you're gonna add, if you're gonna conquer Gaza and you're 1977 01:35:09,900 --> 01:35:13,230 gonna conquer the West Bank too, which is the path that Israel is on right now. 1978 01:35:13,560 --> 01:35:16,800 Like, it just leads to the sense where Israeli society itself is not 1979 01:35:16,800 --> 01:35:19,860 gonna be able to defend from the external threats that are coming. 1980 01:35:19,860 --> 01:35:22,260 And that's always been the end of Jewish independence. 1981 01:35:22,410 --> 01:35:23,310 Uh, see that's an interesting 1982 01:35:23,310 --> 01:35:23,580 Marko Papic: one. 1983 01:35:23,880 --> 01:35:28,530 So in other words, we both agree that it should be definitely zero on 1984 01:35:28,530 --> 01:35:30,510 the zero to tens antisemitism line. 1985 01:35:31,680 --> 01:35:32,370 That's a fact. 1986 01:35:33,060 --> 01:35:39,240 Um, but what you're saying is that on the, is existence of Israeli state. 1987 01:35:39,990 --> 01:35:45,179 You also, like, you have to be zero on anti, uh, Zionism 1988 01:35:45,179 --> 01:35:47,010 to be zero on antisemitism. 1989 01:35:47,429 --> 01:35:50,370 But there is some cri criticism of where is this enough. 1990 01:35:50,820 --> 01:35:50,910 Mm-hmm. 1991 01:35:50,910 --> 01:35:55,500 If I, if I listen to you as an external, non-Jewish observer, an 1992 01:35:55,500 --> 01:35:58,590 interpreter here, I would say that you're seeing, like, look, the risk here 1993 01:35:58,590 --> 01:36:04,889 is that Israel in pursuit of security basically chews up too much territory 1994 01:36:04,889 --> 01:36:06,780 and he can't digest it at some point. 1995 01:36:07,740 --> 01:36:11,250 And so there is a point where maybe this is enough. 1996 01:36:11,880 --> 01:36:12,210 Mm-hmm. 1997 01:36:12,365 --> 01:36:15,690 Is that, I mean, and, and I, and I see what's going on in Gaza and like 1998 01:36:15,809 --> 01:36:22,110 that piece of land, I mean, it has no real benefit at all to Israel. 1999 01:36:24,660 --> 01:36:27,630 I mean, you know, like, I mean it's, it's, it's truly, it has 2000 01:36:27,630 --> 01:36:29,400 absolutely no geographical benefit. 2001 01:36:29,400 --> 01:36:29,790 I mean it's, 2002 01:36:29,849 --> 01:36:31,230 Jacob Shapiro: or to Egypt or to anyone else. 2003 01:36:31,230 --> 01:36:32,820 There's a reason nobody wants it. 2004 01:36:32,910 --> 01:36:33,120 Nobody. 2005 01:36:33,120 --> 01:36:35,610 The only reason Israel's doing this is because nobody wants it. 2006 01:36:35,880 --> 01:36:36,150 Marko Papic: Right. 2007 01:36:36,150 --> 01:36:38,429 And, and then the other, the problem is the West Bank. 2008 01:36:39,090 --> 01:36:39,810 You know, Jacob? 2009 01:36:39,840 --> 01:36:39,960 Yes. 2010 01:36:39,990 --> 01:36:44,820 I think the problem is the West Bank because, uh, history, and, and 2011 01:36:44,820 --> 01:36:49,050 by this I mean biblical history, you know, it's like very long. 2012 01:36:49,140 --> 01:36:54,330 And those are two kingdoms that Israel did control. 2013 01:36:55,050 --> 01:36:59,070 Judea and some, what was the other one 2014 01:37:00,960 --> 01:37:01,735 Jacob Shapiro: I forgot, but we, 2015 01:37:02,910 --> 01:37:03,390 Marko Papic: Samaria, which, which one? 2016 01:37:03,395 --> 01:37:03,695 Jude and 2017 01:37:03,695 --> 01:37:03,855 Jacob Shapiro: Sam. 2018 01:37:04,050 --> 01:37:04,775 Judea and Samaria. 2019 01:37:05,010 --> 01:37:05,820 Marko Papic: Judea and Samaria. 2020 01:37:06,600 --> 01:37:10,800 So like, my point is, it's like, you know, if that is the long-term goal I do, I do 2021 01:37:10,800 --> 01:37:14,700 worry that that extension is problematic. 2022 01:37:14,910 --> 01:37:18,480 And it's problematic because it would destabilize the, as we 2023 01:37:18,480 --> 01:37:20,100 discussed in the last PO podcast. 2024 01:37:20,100 --> 01:37:25,980 What I fear is that the eastern border of Israel has been quite pacified. 2025 01:37:26,505 --> 01:37:30,885 Jordan is an ally, and I think that anything that disrupts Jordanian 2026 01:37:30,885 --> 01:37:32,025 stability would be a problem. 2027 01:37:32,745 --> 01:37:32,985 Jacob Shapiro: Yeah. 2028 01:37:33,135 --> 01:37:35,505 And by the way, on, on your, on your dials, like Yes. 2029 01:37:35,505 --> 01:37:36,795 So zero on anti-Semitism. 2030 01:37:37,005 --> 01:37:40,425 I would be willing to grant, you can be up to a nine on anti-Zionism 2031 01:37:40,425 --> 01:37:41,865 and still not be anti-Semitic. 2032 01:37:42,075 --> 01:37:46,305 But if you're a 10 on anti-Zionism, I hate to break it to you're anti-Semitic. 2033 01:37:46,875 --> 01:37:47,805 Like that, that's the point. 2034 01:37:47,805 --> 01:37:48,855 I'm, that, that's the point. 2035 01:37:48,855 --> 01:37:49,215 I'm talking. 2036 01:37:51,405 --> 01:37:52,005 What is that? 2037 01:37:52,065 --> 01:37:52,394 Yeah. 2038 01:37:52,455 --> 01:37:53,985 And I'm willing to, I'm willing to grant it. 2039 01:37:53,985 --> 01:37:55,095 I'm talking about the tens. 2040 01:37:55,125 --> 01:37:57,644 The tens are, I see some tens out there who are saying 2041 01:37:57,644 --> 01:37:59,205 anti-Semitism is deplorable. 2042 01:37:59,565 --> 01:38:00,045 Okay. 2043 01:38:00,495 --> 01:38:03,765 Marko Papic: Just, just to be clear, so what triggered you and the reason 2044 01:38:03,765 --> 01:38:07,305 we're having this nice session, and we should have it, I, I'll have 2045 01:38:07,335 --> 01:38:07,425 Jacob Shapiro: Yes. 2046 01:38:07,430 --> 01:38:08,625 Thank, thank you for the therapy session. 2047 01:38:08,835 --> 01:38:10,845 Marko Papic: No, that's, but what triggered you was that after the 2048 01:38:10,845 --> 01:38:15,795 assassination of two Israeli uh, diplomats in Washington DC you saw 2049 01:38:15,795 --> 01:38:17,684 basically in the public domain. 2050 01:38:18,810 --> 01:38:22,320 In social media and in the public people who say that Israel should 2051 01:38:22,320 --> 01:38:26,280 not exist, saying that they deplored the act because it was anti-Semitic. 2052 01:38:26,730 --> 01:38:27,000 Jacob Shapiro: Yeah. 2053 01:38:27,570 --> 01:38:27,840 Marko Papic: Okay. 2054 01:38:28,050 --> 01:38:29,070 Yeah, no, that's fair. 2055 01:38:29,400 --> 01:38:32,820 I think, uh, I don't know if you can be nine outta 10, you know, 2056 01:38:33,240 --> 01:38:36,210 because that sounds to me like what Tel Aviv, a city state. 2057 01:38:36,630 --> 01:38:37,050 I mean, 2058 01:38:38,250 --> 01:38:39,840 Jacob Shapiro: all, all you have to do is say the Jews have 2059 01:38:39,840 --> 01:38:41,580 a right to a state like that. 2060 01:38:41,610 --> 01:38:43,110 You, you have to at least get to there. 2061 01:38:43,110 --> 01:38:44,795 If you can't get to there like you 2062 01:38:44,795 --> 01:38:45,390 Marko Papic: should, you are anti, 2063 01:38:47,520 --> 01:38:48,795 I think that's, that's. 2064 01:38:49,830 --> 01:38:52,680 And I think that's, but, and yet not too many people. 2065 01:38:53,370 --> 01:38:53,580 Jacob Shapiro: Yeah. 2066 01:38:54,360 --> 01:38:54,660 All right. 2067 01:38:54,660 --> 01:38:57,810 Let's, let's hit one more hot button issue in the nine minutes that we have left. 2068 01:38:58,260 --> 01:39:02,610 Um, I dunno if we can get, uh, oo, to put this in the, to splice in the 2069 01:39:02,610 --> 01:39:06,630 conversation that, uh, south African President Cy Phos had with Donald Trump 2070 01:39:06,630 --> 01:39:10,350 and the incredible back and forth about, he's trying to get planes from everybody. 2071 01:39:10,350 --> 01:39:12,750 Now, Marco, it's gutter's not good enough. 2072 01:39:12,750 --> 01:39:14,880 He is asking the South Africans for a, for a plane. 2073 01:39:15,270 --> 01:39:17,400 Uh, but this has been something that's sort of been in the background 2074 01:39:17,400 --> 01:39:19,290 with the Trump administration since the very beginning. 2075 01:39:19,290 --> 01:39:22,770 And it's continuing, even without Elon doing the whispering in Trump's ear. 2076 01:39:23,100 --> 01:39:26,610 Like, think about this executive order from, uh, February 7th, 2077 01:39:26,610 --> 01:39:31,020 where the United States decided it was policy, uh, to not, uh. 2078 01:39:31,724 --> 01:39:34,815 To not provide aid or assistance to South Africa and to promote the 2079 01:39:34,815 --> 01:39:38,955 resettlement of Africana refugees escaping government-sponsored 2080 01:39:38,955 --> 01:39:40,514 race-based discrimination. 2081 01:39:40,934 --> 01:39:45,974 Um, this escalated because in this meeting with Rama in the Oval Office, um, he 2082 01:39:45,974 --> 01:39:49,994 basically was talking about, you know, genocide against whites in South Africa 2083 01:39:49,995 --> 01:39:54,674 and putting this ambushing serial, Rama foso with this, um, he showed him a video 2084 01:39:54,674 --> 01:39:56,625 montage that was supposed to prove this. 2085 01:39:56,625 --> 01:39:58,035 And not only did, did did he do that? 2086 01:39:58,035 --> 01:40:01,964 If you go to the White House, the White House has, has a release 2087 01:40:01,964 --> 01:40:05,355 entitled President Trump is right about what's happening in South Africa. 2088 01:40:05,684 --> 01:40:06,764 And like, here's the text. 2089 01:40:06,764 --> 01:40:08,985 I'm literally reading from the White House today. 2090 01:40:08,985 --> 01:40:11,745 President Trump showed the world the shocking treatment of white farmers 2091 01:40:11,745 --> 01:40:14,894 in South Africa, including with a video montage that highlighted the 2092 01:40:14,894 --> 01:40:18,974 discrimination and violence targeted at the innocent minority victims and 2093 01:40:18,974 --> 01:40:23,474 quoting some reputable newspapers, but also a lot of, uh, daily male 2094 01:40:23,474 --> 01:40:25,365 and Breitbart and some other things. 2095 01:40:25,365 --> 01:40:26,565 Apology New York Sun. 2096 01:40:26,565 --> 01:40:28,214 Like apologies if you think these things are real. 2097 01:40:28,605 --> 01:40:29,085 Um. 2098 01:40:29,644 --> 01:40:33,245 We put South Africa on our list, like there is this weird back and forth with 2099 01:40:33,245 --> 01:40:34,684 the United States and South Africa. 2100 01:40:34,804 --> 01:40:36,695 Anything you want to add here on this? 2101 01:40:36,695 --> 01:40:38,075 'cause it is pretty strange. 2102 01:40:38,644 --> 01:40:42,094 Marko Papic: Well, I think both sides are being disingenuous here. 2103 01:40:42,125 --> 01:40:49,144 First of all, uh, you know, I'm not Jewish, but if I were, I'll be extremely 2104 01:40:49,535 --> 01:40:55,804 angry at the wanton use of the term genocide over the past 35 years. 2105 01:40:55,985 --> 01:40:58,745 You know, it's just become like everybody's being genocide 2106 01:40:58,745 --> 01:40:59,644 and left, right and center. 2107 01:40:59,644 --> 01:41:02,224 So yes, there is no genocide of whites in South Africa. 2108 01:41:02,224 --> 01:41:03,065 Please come on. 2109 01:41:04,144 --> 01:41:06,155 At the same time, 2110 01:41:08,285 --> 01:41:15,514 just because there's no genocide doesn't mean that stuff that's going on is okay. 2111 01:41:16,655 --> 01:41:20,674 And I think that was the point that, um, actually one of the golfers, I 2112 01:41:20,855 --> 01:41:22,355 don't follow golf, they never will. 2113 01:41:22,355 --> 01:41:24,004 Sorry, I, I grew up in the third world. 2114 01:41:24,245 --> 01:41:26,195 We use golf clubs for other things. 2115 01:41:27,540 --> 01:41:31,020 So I don't golf, but there was Ernie else who I of course know. 2116 01:41:31,025 --> 01:41:31,175 Mm-hmm. 2117 01:41:31,255 --> 01:41:34,680 The other gentleman did say like, Hey, my brother has a farm. 2118 01:41:34,680 --> 01:41:38,580 And yeah, he's been threatened, you know, by like criminals. 2119 01:41:38,760 --> 01:41:40,950 So it's not that great. 2120 01:41:41,640 --> 01:41:42,840 And so that's the, that's the thing. 2121 01:41:42,840 --> 01:41:45,465 We're like, yeah, I do think South Africa should do better. 2122 01:41:45,465 --> 01:41:48,450 Like, sorry, like, yeah. 2123 01:41:48,450 --> 01:41:52,305 You can't have, I know that this went to the Supreme Court of South 2124 01:41:52,305 --> 01:41:57,810 Africa, and, uh, the leader of the economic, uh, freedom Fighters, uh, 2125 01:41:57,810 --> 01:42:02,460 Malema was, you know, basically, look, it's, it's a free country. 2126 01:42:02,460 --> 01:42:04,200 It's a democracy, this freedom of speech. 2127 01:42:04,200 --> 01:42:05,970 He can sing whatever songs he wants. 2128 01:42:05,970 --> 01:42:09,510 And Supreme Court of South Africa basically said something like this, 2129 01:42:09,510 --> 01:42:15,420 this song where, you know, there's a line shoot the boar, kill the farmer. 2130 01:42:16,710 --> 01:42:19,290 Uh, the Supreme Court basically said like, look, it's a protest song. 2131 01:42:19,350 --> 01:42:23,610 Nobody actually means that in today's context, you know? 2132 01:42:23,610 --> 01:42:24,090 And. 2133 01:42:25,185 --> 01:42:25,905 I get that. 2134 01:42:26,295 --> 01:42:30,765 I kind of, I understand that, um, given the context and all that, 2135 01:42:30,765 --> 01:42:33,555 but there is still a security risk to some of these people. 2136 01:42:34,305 --> 01:42:39,075 And so I don't see what's wrong with the United States of America, putting pressure 2137 01:42:39,075 --> 01:42:43,665 on a country to make sure that it's minority is, you know, treated fairly. 2138 01:42:45,615 --> 01:42:46,245 Yeah. 2139 01:42:46,305 --> 01:42:48,135 Um, I hear you. 2140 01:42:48,135 --> 01:42:51,165 And that minority was complicit in appetite. 2141 01:42:51,585 --> 01:42:52,125 Like Yeah. 2142 01:42:52,125 --> 01:42:56,235 That you're like, shit, that, that sucks. 2143 01:42:56,625 --> 01:42:56,925 That's, yeah. 2144 01:42:56,925 --> 01:42:57,555 But fair. 2145 01:42:57,710 --> 01:42:57,930 You, 2146 01:42:57,935 --> 01:42:58,815 Jacob Shapiro: you know what though? 2147 01:42:58,815 --> 01:43:01,755 It, it goes back to what we talked about last week, which was last week. 2148 01:43:01,755 --> 01:43:04,665 You were talking about how wasn't it so, um. 2149 01:43:05,055 --> 01:43:09,585 So amazing is the wrong word, but that it was so, um, unprecedented that here 2150 01:43:09,585 --> 01:43:13,395 was a US president who was saying, it's not my job to sit in judgment. 2151 01:43:13,395 --> 01:43:17,055 It is my job to defend the interest of the United States and sitting 2152 01:43:17,055 --> 01:43:21,075 in judgment over an issue that you obviously know nothing about and 2153 01:43:21,075 --> 01:43:25,155 which is not strategically significant with a government and a country that 2154 01:43:25,155 --> 01:43:27,285 is very geopolitically important. 2155 01:43:27,285 --> 01:43:30,165 If you're thinking about the future of geopolitics in a multipolar world and 2156 01:43:30,165 --> 01:43:32,895 you're worried about Chinese influence in Africa and all these other things, 2157 01:43:33,195 --> 01:43:38,205 it would be really good to have at least South Africa neutral, if not on your side. 2158 01:43:38,205 --> 01:43:41,085 Just look at a map like South Korea, excuse me, South Korea. 2159 01:43:41,085 --> 01:43:44,805 South Africa, incredibly important strategic real estate, especially if 2160 01:43:44,805 --> 01:43:47,410 Africa, in terms of growth and all these other things is gonna be important, 2161 01:43:47,410 --> 01:43:49,635 Marko Papic: especially the Houthis keep, uh, shutting down. 2162 01:43:50,610 --> 01:43:51,480 Oh, it's a good idea to 2163 01:43:51,480 --> 01:43:55,170 Jacob Shapiro: bring their leader in and lecture him about these things, and then 2164 01:43:55,170 --> 01:43:57,809 also ask for a plane and everything else. 2165 01:43:58,110 --> 01:44:03,750 Um, now Osa I thought he was, um, he was all, I thought he should, he, he was very, 2166 01:44:03,990 --> 01:44:07,889 uh, statesmanlike and diplomatic, but I was waiting for him to go zelensky on it. 2167 01:44:07,920 --> 01:44:10,500 'cause, you know, I think that Zelensky actually did good for himself. 2168 01:44:10,505 --> 01:44:12,750 And, and how he pushed back, I was waiting for him to do it. 2169 01:44:12,750 --> 01:44:13,559 He didn't do that. 2170 01:44:13,710 --> 01:44:15,389 And that's because he was thinking strategically. 2171 01:44:15,389 --> 01:44:18,150 I think he realizes that it's important for South Africa to have 2172 01:44:18,150 --> 01:44:19,559 good relations with the United States. 2173 01:44:19,710 --> 01:44:22,830 But, you know, we're a week removed from President Trump telling everyone 2174 01:44:22,830 --> 01:44:24,630 in Riyadh, I don't sit in judgment. 2175 01:44:24,840 --> 01:44:25,710 That's for God. 2176 01:44:25,710 --> 01:44:29,340 And then here we are literally sitting in judgment in the Oval Office. 2177 01:44:29,684 --> 01:44:35,400 Marko Papic: I, I, I love nothing more than when I'm pawned P-W-N-E-D by my own. 2178 01:44:37,740 --> 01:44:40,320 So I, I slow clap Jacob. 2179 01:44:40,320 --> 01:44:44,309 Like, thank you for, uh, slapping me with my own, uh, framework. 2180 01:44:44,340 --> 01:44:45,330 I think you're correct. 2181 01:44:46,080 --> 01:44:47,519 I think, uh, it was petty. 2182 01:44:47,580 --> 01:44:48,210 It was, um. 2183 01:44:49,470 --> 01:44:54,300 It was petty and it was, um, you know, um, unstrategic, he should have taken 2184 01:44:54,300 --> 01:44:56,760 his own advice from the last week. 2185 01:44:56,790 --> 01:44:57,360 You're correct. 2186 01:44:57,360 --> 01:45:02,460 But I would say that for South African future, you know, for South Africa for 2187 01:45:02,460 --> 01:45:09,210 their own goods, they should not be, you know, like eliminating a whole minority 2188 01:45:09,210 --> 01:45:10,890 of people or making it uncomfortable. 2189 01:45:10,890 --> 01:45:13,026 I mean, the whole point of South Africa is it's the Rebo Haitian. 2190 01:45:13,605 --> 01:45:14,025 Mm-hmm. 2191 01:45:14,110 --> 01:45:17,940 You know, and if you start with the African, uh, farmers, 2192 01:45:17,940 --> 01:45:22,020 by the way, you know, there's a short path from that to Ed. 2193 01:45:22,020 --> 01:45:27,270 Mean pushing out the South Asians out of Uganda, like South Africa 2194 01:45:27,270 --> 01:45:29,250 is not just white and black. 2195 01:45:29,250 --> 01:45:34,500 There's also South Asians and also an ethnic group that they term and they 2196 01:45:34,500 --> 01:45:39,900 use the term colored for, which is a various mixes usually in the south, in 2197 01:45:39,900 --> 01:45:41,970 the Cape Province, uh, Western Cape. 2198 01:45:42,210 --> 01:45:45,750 Uh, the point is there are a lot of different groups 2199 01:45:45,780 --> 01:45:47,580 in South Africa other than. 2200 01:45:47,955 --> 01:45:54,344 Blacks and White African and all of those groups contribute to the Rainbow Nation. 2201 01:45:54,344 --> 01:45:57,615 I mean, that was Mandela's like great contribution to humanity 2202 01:45:57,615 --> 01:46:00,554 that he, you know, engendered that. 2203 01:46:00,554 --> 01:46:02,835 And so I a hundred percent agree with you. 2204 01:46:03,885 --> 01:46:04,905 I stand corrected. 2205 01:46:05,144 --> 01:46:05,715 Thank you. 2206 01:46:05,925 --> 01:46:10,365 President Trump did focus on strategic imperatives of the US at the same time. 2207 01:46:10,695 --> 01:46:14,175 He was kind of giving South Africa a helping hand, quite frankly, because they 2208 01:46:14,175 --> 01:46:18,285 need to solve this and they need to make sure that, um, you know, like they're, 2209 01:46:18,344 --> 01:46:23,474 they don't go down the path of other African countries that did turn quite 2210 01:46:23,684 --> 01:46:26,025 racist towards their well minorities. 2211 01:46:26,535 --> 01:46:27,345 Jacob Shapiro: They haven't so far. 2212 01:46:27,345 --> 01:46:30,195 It's to South Africa's credit that it basically like, yes, there are 2213 01:46:30,195 --> 01:46:31,755 tons of problems in South Africa. 2214 01:46:31,755 --> 01:46:34,695 There's violence, there's the inheritance of apartheid, all the 2215 01:46:34,695 --> 01:46:37,185 different wealth inequalities, education, inequalities, et cetera. 2216 01:46:37,515 --> 01:46:38,895 But they haven't had a genocide. 2217 01:46:39,375 --> 01:46:42,645 Yeah, they haven't had a, they haven't had a civil war like relative to 2218 01:46:42,645 --> 01:46:43,845 the other countries around them. 2219 01:46:43,845 --> 01:46:46,365 And what they went through, you would've expected much worse by now. 2220 01:46:46,365 --> 01:46:47,445 And maybe it's still coming. 2221 01:46:47,445 --> 01:46:48,975 Like this story has not been written yet. 2222 01:46:48,975 --> 01:46:51,705 But the thing that Mandela did was truth and reconciliation. 2223 01:46:51,705 --> 01:46:55,215 Let's all say what we did and then let's figure out a way forward. 2224 01:46:55,215 --> 01:46:58,335 And, uh, OSA even in the conversation, said to Trump, 2225 01:46:58,545 --> 01:46:59,835 Hey, we need to talk about this. 2226 01:46:59,835 --> 01:47:01,905 Mandela said this, like this is where we need to go. 2227 01:47:01,905 --> 01:47:04,755 And that was a moment where the United States could have said, okay. 2228 01:47:05,430 --> 01:47:08,370 Like, there are these problems live by your own creed. 2229 01:47:08,370 --> 01:47:11,490 Let's do truth and reconciliation again because you guys need an update to that. 2230 01:47:11,490 --> 01:47:13,350 Because if not, you're headed in a bad direction. 2231 01:47:13,680 --> 01:47:14,520 Well that's, you know, but that's not what was happening. 2232 01:47:14,520 --> 01:47:14,700 Marko Papic: No, no. 2233 01:47:14,700 --> 01:47:20,520 But Jacob, but Jacob, this is where I, I stand with the criticism of Julius 2234 01:47:20,520 --> 01:47:22,230 Malama because he is going back. 2235 01:47:22,230 --> 01:47:24,210 I'm not sure that he feels the truth. 2236 01:47:24,720 --> 01:47:26,010 Reconciliation was enough. 2237 01:47:26,610 --> 01:47:26,880 Yeah. 2238 01:47:27,210 --> 01:47:32,340 And this is where, where I'm zagging from you is that what I saw in the 2239 01:47:32,340 --> 01:47:36,120 media over the last couple of days is just every single liberal, mainstream 2240 01:47:36,120 --> 01:47:42,600 media, um, you know, outlet, basically saying discredited news about genocide. 2241 01:47:42,660 --> 01:47:45,660 Yes, that is correct, but I don't care. 2242 01:47:46,710 --> 01:47:51,120 Genocide is an overused term in truth, it's happened very 2243 01:47:51,120 --> 01:47:52,560 rarely since the Holocaust. 2244 01:47:52,650 --> 01:47:53,010 Okay. 2245 01:47:53,580 --> 01:47:57,540 And again, if I was Jewish, I would be so much more angrier about the use of the 2246 01:47:57,540 --> 01:47:58,950 word genocide left, right, and center. 2247 01:47:58,950 --> 01:48:00,210 Everyone's getting genocide now. 2248 01:48:00,240 --> 01:48:01,680 Okay, everybody get in line. 2249 01:48:01,680 --> 01:48:03,270 Get your genocide hat and t-shirt on. 2250 01:48:03,270 --> 01:48:03,570 No. 2251 01:48:04,230 --> 01:48:07,440 Just because there is no genocide in South Africa against the whites 2252 01:48:07,440 --> 01:48:10,410 does not mean that they're not being discriminated now in sort of 2253 01:48:10,410 --> 01:48:12,660 reverse discrimination in some ways. 2254 01:48:13,230 --> 01:48:18,630 And I think that that is a mistake there, there is clearly an exodus of 2255 01:48:18,630 --> 01:48:20,250 white side of South Africa anyways. 2256 01:48:20,250 --> 01:48:23,910 I mean professionals and so on, that there has been happening for the 20 years. 2257 01:48:24,240 --> 01:48:26,430 I don't think that's a, that's good for the country. 2258 01:48:26,850 --> 01:48:30,240 And I do think that Julius Malama should be pushed on again, a a, a little 2259 01:48:30,240 --> 01:48:32,730 bit leaned against a little bit more. 2260 01:48:32,730 --> 01:48:36,000 And I think that President Rama did a great job. 2261 01:48:36,000 --> 01:48:36,870 I agree with you. 2262 01:48:37,260 --> 01:48:40,890 But there can be both President Trump in the right wing of Fri Connors 2263 01:48:40,890 --> 01:48:42,180 who are talking about genocide. 2264 01:48:42,240 --> 01:48:43,080 They can be wrong. 2265 01:48:43,890 --> 01:48:45,750 Also South Africa needs to do a lot better. 2266 01:48:46,050 --> 01:48:46,110 Yeah. 2267 01:48:46,110 --> 01:48:50,130 And when I see the media, everybody in the west indexed on this issue. 2268 01:48:50,130 --> 01:48:51,090 Well, there's no genocide. 2269 01:48:51,090 --> 01:48:54,540 It's like, great, you know, like that is not a standard 2270 01:48:54,540 --> 01:48:55,980 for how minorities are treated. 2271 01:48:55,980 --> 01:48:57,390 Like, are you being genocided? 2272 01:48:57,660 --> 01:48:58,560 Uh, I guess not. 2273 01:48:58,710 --> 01:49:00,570 Okay, well then you're good and we're out of here. 2274 01:49:00,630 --> 01:49:01,410 You know, like, well, 2275 01:49:02,310 --> 01:49:04,320 Jacob Shapiro: well, I, I just, I, I agree with you a hundred percent. 2276 01:49:04,380 --> 01:49:07,380 I just, I think it's a missed opportunity for President Trump because I think 2277 01:49:07,380 --> 01:49:10,860 he could have actually used his position to try and push towards that. 2278 01:49:11,040 --> 01:49:13,650 But by doing what he did, I actually think he made it almost 2279 01:49:13,650 --> 01:49:15,750 impossible for Ram OSA to do that. 2280 01:49:16,110 --> 01:49:19,950 Like, because now like Ram OSA has to go, go back after having, you know, 2281 01:49:19,980 --> 01:49:23,310 like all these clips out and it's like, you think that's gonna cause anybody 2282 01:49:23,310 --> 01:49:24,420 to wanna sit down around a table? 2283 01:49:24,420 --> 01:49:25,080 Maybe I'm over. 2284 01:49:25,080 --> 01:49:25,410 I don't know. 2285 01:49:25,410 --> 01:49:25,740 Marko Papic: I don't know. 2286 01:49:25,740 --> 01:49:26,160 You know what? 2287 01:49:26,220 --> 01:49:26,790 I don't know. 2288 01:49:27,000 --> 01:49:27,510 I don't know. 2289 01:49:28,140 --> 01:49:29,280 Because look. 2290 01:49:30,510 --> 01:49:34,830 For a country like South Africa, it does matter what great powers do. 2291 01:49:34,920 --> 01:49:35,310 Right. 2292 01:49:35,310 --> 01:49:39,540 And I think that maybe he can go home and be like, Hey, Julius Malema, thanks buddy. 2293 01:49:41,220 --> 01:49:44,010 You know, like maybe that can be the takeaway from here. 2294 01:49:44,010 --> 01:49:48,210 It's like, hey, maybe like to down the shoot the board, like, you know, 2295 01:49:48,210 --> 01:49:53,070 thinking maybe like, you know, if, if naidas are not acceptable, maybe 2296 01:49:53,070 --> 01:49:58,050 like the celebrating of, uh, ethnic uh, violence is not okay either. 2297 01:49:58,830 --> 01:50:01,770 So I think, you know, like, again, I think the, the way we're carrying 2298 01:50:01,770 --> 01:50:04,230 this, first of all, everybody has A-P-T-S-D from Zelensky. 2299 01:50:05,100 --> 01:50:08,850 And second of all, I think just saying that I can document in 2300 01:50:08,850 --> 01:50:11,850 many ways how there's no genocide in South Africa or Civil War. 2301 01:50:12,180 --> 01:50:15,405 It's like, great, but that's just not enough, you know, for South 2302 01:50:15,405 --> 01:50:16,830 Africa to be a viable state. 2303 01:50:16,830 --> 01:50:17,880 I just think that they need to. 2304 01:50:18,750 --> 01:50:20,850 Lean into the Rainbow Nation. 2305 01:50:20,850 --> 01:50:24,090 And I think that this government, this coalition clearly has done that. 2306 01:50:24,090 --> 01:50:26,820 So I'm definitely not criticizing anything the government has done. 2307 01:50:27,330 --> 01:50:32,400 What I'm saying is that there is a security issue, there is discrimination 2308 01:50:32,430 --> 01:50:37,740 against some people of different color in South Africa, and that's, you know, 2309 01:50:37,740 --> 01:50:40,500 that's not what the country really was. 2310 01:50:40,500 --> 01:50:40,590 Yeah. 2311 01:50:40,860 --> 01:50:41,550 Like in the nineties. 2312 01:50:41,550 --> 01:50:41,610 No, 2313 01:50:41,885 --> 01:50:42,840 Jacob Shapiro: I, I, I hope you're right. 2314 01:50:42,840 --> 01:50:45,060 I hope, I hope He goes back and he puts pressure on Ma Layman. 2315 01:50:45,060 --> 01:50:48,720 He, he calls also around and says, does anybody have a 7 47 spare? 2316 01:50:48,720 --> 01:50:50,400 7 47 to, to spare? 2317 01:50:50,430 --> 01:50:51,840 'cause uh, we got a guy who wants one. 2318 01:50:51,870 --> 01:50:52,230 All right. 2319 01:50:52,230 --> 01:50:54,300 I, I gotta guy outta here and I'm sure you do too, Marco, 2320 01:50:54,300 --> 01:50:55,410 this was a really good episode. 2321 01:50:56,100 --> 01:50:56,490 Marko Papic: I agree. 2322 01:50:56,490 --> 01:50:57,480 This was a lot of fun, man. 2323 01:50:58,020 --> 01:50:58,440 Awesome.