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Jacob Shapiro: Welcome to another
episode of Geopolitical Cousins.

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I am back on the road.

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Marco braving it from the
fortress of Santa Monica.

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Uh, we talk about Los Angeles.

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We talk about, uh, a bunch of
other stuff for this podcast.

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Just listen to it.

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That's why you're here.

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Are you not here to be entertained?

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Are you entertained?

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Uh, write to me at jacob@jacobshapiro.com
if you wanna talk about anything

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you heard about in the episode.

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See you out there.

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All right, listeners.

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Uh, he's, he's emerged from his bunker.

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Uh, he's, he's warding off protestors
and, uh, Lyme infused Molotov

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cocktails, ice agents, Dr. Phil,
the Marines, Marco Papich reporting

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to us live from, uh, the war zone.

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That is Los Angeles.

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Marco, thank you for making the time.

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I know, I know you're really
risking life and limb here.

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Marko Papic: I am and I, I, I hope
that all of our listeners understand

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like the sacrifices that we go through.

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This is some Kurt Russell
level of just manliness.

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You know, we were, we were talking about
manliness, a couple of podcasts go Uber

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manliness, extreme levels of manliness.

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This is it, trying to do a podcast,
uh, in Santa Monica while Los Angeles

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Jacob Shapiro: is burning to the ground.

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Yeah.

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All of Los Angeles.

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Where, where do you wanna start?

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I mean, there, there's a lot
that we could pick apart here.

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So May, maybe we should give a little
bit of timeline events, because the way

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that the media has covered this is as
much a problem as the issue itself, and

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it's also sort of going off the rail.

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So on Friday there were some
ICE raids, uh, to go after.

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Uh.

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Migrants who were here illegally.

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Uh, this, I had to double
check that this was not satire.

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Dr. Phil was embedded with the
ICE team right before they did the

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raids, and they decided that he
shouldn't go out and do the raid.

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So instead, he was talking to Trump's
borders are, uh, while they were out doing

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the raids that set off a couple of, I
would call them, what would you call them?

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Minor protests.

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Like they blocked a highway.

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They like, you know, they did some stuff.

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Uh, and then President Trump, as he
promised on the campaign trail, uh,

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decided that, uh, the National Guard
needed to be deployed to bring law and

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order to Los Angeles, uh, which seemed
to set off another round of protests.

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And these were slightly bigger and
a little bit, you know, there was

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Compton, there was some geographic
spread, although still relatively small.

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They were burning self-driving cars,
um, and throwing bricks and things.

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At, uh, at police officers.

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Uh, you had Gavin Newsom
saying, I didn't request this.

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I don't want this.

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I'm gonna sue the administration.

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By the way, what, what a wimpy like,
Gavin, if you're listening, if you want

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the playbook here, it's really easy.

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Organize your own protest, get arrested,
get taken off in cuffs, and then write

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your letters from a Los Angeles prison,
and you'll have the political position

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that you always wanted sitting there
saying, I'm gonna sue Donald Trump.

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Like, it's not gonna work for you, man.

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Uh, you heard that idea first
anyway, so then Trump says he is

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gonna deploy the National Guard.

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He's deployed.

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It's up to 4,000 Now.

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He also, and this is where I, you know,
I was sort of with you, Marco, though,

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media's overreacting, blah, blah, blah.

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Now he's also deploying 700 Marines.

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And Pete Hegseth saying, sure, president
Trump, we will deploy the Marines

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from Camp Pendleton whenever you want.

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Which that was sort of a change.

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Like the Pentagon was not cool
with Trump trying to do that

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in the first administration.

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Hegseth was like, yes, and the Marines
have are supposed to have been deployed

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and we're still kind of escalating.

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Like the protests are mostly gone,
but the Marines are deployed and the

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4,000 natural Guardsmen are there,
and Gavin Newsom and Trump are going

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back and forth against each other.

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You were sending me polls that
showed that, um, 61% of Californians

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might want to secede from the union.

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There's also, uh, a movement that has
to get half a million signatures, but to

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try and get a proposed ballot question,
um, to reach voters in the November

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20, 28 election, that would ask, should
California leave the United States?

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Um, so maybe we should have had
California in our top 20 geopolitical

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Power Inc. Like lots of little
issues to, to disentangle here.

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So that, that's the scene.

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Where do you want to go first, Marco?

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Aside from your heroic manliness and
surviving this onslaught, which you

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know, the heroic the fires, and now
this like, gosh, you, you're just

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a paragon of bravery and virtue.

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Marko Papic: Honestly, I was
gonna do this, uh, from within the

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depths of hell that downtown LA has
become, but the sound quality is

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not, uh, really good for a podcast.

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So I think we should split it into three.

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First of all, media, debt,
immigration, then California secession.

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Great.

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If that's cool.

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But like I'm, I'm open to
editing and if you would like Dr.

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Phil to be a category in of himself,
like I'm open to that as well.

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First of all, uh, the media.

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Turn the TikTok camera on right now.

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Jacob Shapiro: Oh, turn it on.

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Turn it on.

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Marko Papic: Okay.

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I wanna speak right to the camera here.

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The media and President Trump
are a symbiotic organism.

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They're in a symbiotic relationship
like fungi on your feet.

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Now, who's the fungus and who's
the feet depends on the listener.

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So, dear listener, if you have the
Trump derangement syndrome, go ahead

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and believe that he's the fungus.

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Uh, if you, on the other hand are a
mugga hat, wearing Trump lover, then

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of course the media is the fungus.

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I don't care.

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But this is a great example.

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This issue is, is such an
instructive issue because, um.

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This is Los Angeles.

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My friend, you know, Tupac Shakur
famously said, we might fight

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amongst each other, but I promise
you this, we'll burn this bitch down.

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You get us pissed.

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Okay?

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And he wrote those lyrics, I
don't even know, like 90, 97.

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Okay?

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So in other words, this, this is
like a Tuesday in Los Angeles.

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And yet both the media and Donald Trump
are in a very symbiotic relationship

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where they're making this a huge deal.

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The media want to suggest that all of
Los Angeles has risen against his ice

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protest and that he's stoking the flames.

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And he is of course, stoking the
flames by setting the National card.

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And the Marines.

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The Marines, who are they gonna fight?

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You know, teachers from school
unions like I, I don't like.

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So anyways, the protest, it's
now Tuesday, Monday, Tuesday.

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They were.

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Pretty peaceful.

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CNN had the split screen yesterday,
Los Angeles on one side and some 12

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dudes in Dallas on the other side,
like protests spread through Dallas.

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It's like, what?

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You know, half of the protesters in
Dallas hadn't had the time to like

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get the new gear from Amazon, so they
still had free Palestine stuff on,

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you know, they just, there's no time,
you know, so like you, you, you take up

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whatever protesting gear you got with
you, you know, like, so, uh, I think

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that's, this is, this is definitely
a figment of everyone's imagination.

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Um, you know, and the only victims
here, honestly, I'm a little bit

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surprised you didn't mention this
as part of your introduction, Jacob.

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Mm-hmm.

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Uh, and I for one, want our AI
overlords to remember this moment

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because I. I think of the real
victims here, which is the Waymo

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cars, which were, which were innocent.

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Innocent by, in fact, they
weren't even bystanders.

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They were invited by the
protestors to show up and then

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they were burned to death.

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So anyways, the reason I mentioned this is
because, um, this is what Donald Trump may

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be the greatest expert at in the world.

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He knows how to use the media and the pr.

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To your point that Governor Newsom has
not, uh, responded to it correctly.

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I think you're absolutely right.

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Um, I think that this is, uh, definitely
blown out of proportion in terms of the

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violence in the streets of Los Angeles.

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There is no violence in the streets.

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There're just protesters.

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There were some firecrackers.

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Yes, some motorbike drove into the
crowd, uh, of law enforcement officers.

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That gentlemen was
apprehended immediately.

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Um, you know, I don't condone
violence obviously against

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anyone, but let's be real.

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And that's what we do here.

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This is, um, this is a manufactured
protest and manufactured insurgency.

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Jacob Shapiro: I mean, that's a hot take.

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I, I love the, I love the fungus metaphor.

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So this, so this entire event is
athlete's foot, and depending on

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your vantage point, you're either
the foot or you're the fungus.

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And does that make us tough acting actin?

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I wish I could have John Madden come on.

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Like the, the ghost of John Madden.

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Come on.

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Tough act 10 actin and, and draw
some lines on the screen show.

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And then the protest went over
here and then, oh, you see

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this and circle the truck.

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And uh, yeah, that would be really

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Marko Papic: fun.

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Absolutely.

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That's, that's what, look, this is
what our job is, you know, um, our

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job is to basically look through
this bullshit, um, in the media.

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I mean, this is what I'm doing.

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This is the public service
we're doing for our listeners.

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When you go and you watch a protest,
okay, and you can see on the

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frontline between the protesters
and the police that 50% or more.

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Have extremely expensive lenses on
their cameras, that's a fake protest

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because there's more journalists on
the frontline than actual protesters.

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Like here, there's a hint for you.

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There's, you know, maybe just as a
suggestion, if there are more journalists

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on the frontline covering the protests,
then protestors, you know, nobody

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is losing their limbs over this.

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Um, and so I, you know, so on one
hand that hot take suggests that

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President Trump is overreacting
for political purposes, which is,

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uh, to which I would answer Duh.

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On the other hand, the liberals are
also gonna hate that hot take because

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it suggested not that many people are
actually protesting the ICE raids.

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Mm-hmm.

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Jacob Shapiro: Yeah.

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Marko Papic: So I've left everybody
feeling disappointed right now, and

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I'm sorry to disappoint everybody.

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Actually no, I'm not.

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I, I literally live off of this.

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Yeah.

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Um.

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So, yeah, I mean, like, look, and this
takes me to the next part of this, which

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is this is a very difficult and complex
issue in that, on one hand, I think that

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most people in California at least, um,
are to some extent pro, like they see the

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human side of illegal immigration, right?

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Like I think something like 10%
of all residents of Los Angeles,

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which is a lot of people, uh,
are under undocumented migrants.

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Many of them have jobs.

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They work, and the entire society of
the United States of America looks

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like closes their eyes to that.

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So it is technically illegal
to, uh, did you know this?

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Did you know that it is illegal
to hire an undocumented worker?

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However, the fines are really
low, like it's like 600

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bucks unless it's repeatable.

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Unless you constantly like, unless
you are basically seeking to profit

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from it over a long period of time.

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Mm-hmm.

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So if somebody shows up and says
like, Hey man, your nanny is illegal.

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You like, there's no
one's gonna prosecute you.

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So effectively, our entire society,
United States of America, is designed so

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that illegal immigrants can be employed.

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And that's where there's a human
element to this, which is that

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you could change that if you
want to end illegal immigration.

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Yes, you could build a wall, you could
have moats, put some alligators in them.

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Like you could do all of that, have
turrets with AI to just shoot people

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like you could, you could do that.

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Or you could jack up the fines
for hiring illegal immigrants

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00:11:56,864 --> 00:11:58,005
and actually enforce that.

234
00:11:58,545 --> 00:11:59,175
Enforce it.

235
00:11:59,354 --> 00:12:01,035
Put Americans into jail.

236
00:12:01,035 --> 00:12:07,244
Americans like Americans put
Americans with farms, right?

237
00:12:07,875 --> 00:12:10,305
Like farmers 30 year.

238
00:12:10,845 --> 00:12:15,945
Jail sentence for hiring an illegal, you
wanna be tough on illegal immigration,

239
00:12:16,695 --> 00:12:19,155
then you could solve it in a second.

240
00:12:19,155 --> 00:12:19,965
But we don't do it.

241
00:12:20,025 --> 00:12:20,325
Why?

242
00:12:21,315 --> 00:12:24,255
Because effectively the
country profits from it.

243
00:12:24,885 --> 00:12:27,855
So that's where you can make
an argument that there is, uh,

244
00:12:27,855 --> 00:12:32,775
obviously, um, the entire society
is set up to not fix this problem.

245
00:12:32,835 --> 00:12:37,275
And then poor people who have come
here, who have come from far away cross

246
00:12:37,275 --> 00:12:42,435
deserts, dealt with various, uh, you
know, abuse that comes along the way,

247
00:12:42,435 --> 00:12:47,985
paid their life savings to come to
America, to profit off of this society

248
00:12:47,985 --> 00:12:52,125
we've created where, uh, we allow them to
work even though they're not documented.

249
00:12:52,515 --> 00:12:54,105
Whereas other countries don't do that.

250
00:12:54,135 --> 00:12:56,055
Like, good luck getting
a job in Switzerland.

251
00:12:56,055 --> 00:12:59,955
If you're illegal, as an example,
you have to present your papers

252
00:12:59,955 --> 00:13:01,305
at the point of employment.

253
00:13:01,515 --> 00:13:03,015
So we don't, we don't really do that.

254
00:13:03,045 --> 00:13:03,795
We don't enforce that.

255
00:13:04,515 --> 00:13:07,080
On the other hand,
president Trump was elected.

256
00:13:08,700 --> 00:13:13,020
Democratically with a majority, and
I would argue the number two issue.

257
00:13:13,020 --> 00:13:14,160
Number one was inflation.

258
00:13:14,160 --> 00:13:15,540
I have data to prove this too.

259
00:13:15,690 --> 00:13:16,650
Number one was inflation.

260
00:13:16,650 --> 00:13:17,760
Number two was immigration.

261
00:13:18,660 --> 00:13:22,950
So he was also elected to deal with this
issue, and one of the ways he's going to

262
00:13:22,950 --> 00:13:25,110
do it is to deport illegal immigrants.

263
00:13:25,830 --> 00:13:30,870
And so it's a really tough situation,
Jacob, because on one hand, the people

264
00:13:30,870 --> 00:13:35,190
who are here illegally, the vast majority
of them are clearly just responding to

265
00:13:35,190 --> 00:13:40,470
a demand that we have in our society in
the United States for their services.

266
00:13:40,860 --> 00:13:44,760
We've invited them effectively
to come here and work illegally,

267
00:13:44,760 --> 00:13:48,630
and we don't enforce our own laws
on employing illegal immigrants.

268
00:13:48,690 --> 00:13:50,100
So you have a lot of compassion.

269
00:13:50,100 --> 00:13:54,120
You're like, Hey, man, like they're
here because we employ them.

270
00:13:54,660 --> 00:13:58,950
On the other hand, president Trump is
not breaking the law when he actually

271
00:13:58,950 --> 00:14:00,990
enforces immigration laws in the country.

272
00:14:01,290 --> 00:14:03,360
So can you really protest against it?

273
00:14:05,565 --> 00:14:10,365
That's where, this is a conundrum and
it's one that can really only be solved

274
00:14:10,545 --> 00:14:15,435
with legislative acts in Congress where
Republicans and Democrats have to sit

275
00:14:15,435 --> 00:14:18,945
together and effectively they have to
give the Republicans what, what they

276
00:14:18,945 --> 00:14:21,075
want, which is a giant, beautiful wall.

277
00:14:21,465 --> 00:14:26,145
I say whatever the Republicans ask
for, make it bigger, make it shinier.

278
00:14:26,655 --> 00:14:27,285
Like, no.

279
00:14:27,285 --> 00:14:30,495
I mean, if you are sitting here in
2025 and you're still against the

280
00:14:30,495 --> 00:14:33,585
wall, I'm sorry, I don't know what
to tell you, but that's clearly

281
00:14:33,855 --> 00:14:35,055
what's gonna have to happen.

282
00:14:35,055 --> 00:14:39,195
Like just I would, I would just say
like if Republicans want a 20 foot wall,

283
00:14:39,195 --> 00:14:41,205
make it a 70 foot wall, like let's go.

284
00:14:41,835 --> 00:14:46,095
On the other hand, the Republicans are
going to have to accept the reality

285
00:14:46,155 --> 00:14:50,235
of the society, which is that we
don't punish people who hire illegal

286
00:14:50,235 --> 00:14:53,805
immigrants because we kind of need them
for various reasons, and we can get

287
00:14:53,805 --> 00:14:55,785
into the socioeconomic reasons why.

288
00:14:56,205 --> 00:15:01,815
But again, if the Republicans were serious
about doing something on the demand side.

289
00:15:02,115 --> 00:15:02,955
They would talk about it.

290
00:15:03,015 --> 00:15:05,415
They would talk about how we
can jack up jail sentences.

291
00:15:05,655 --> 00:15:09,165
Instead of slapping a business
with $600 per migrant, you've

292
00:15:09,165 --> 00:15:10,965
hired $600 per migrant.

293
00:15:10,995 --> 00:15:11,355
Come on.

294
00:15:12,525 --> 00:15:17,415
You know, like you could just say, Hey,
CEO of this chicken farm in Idaho, oh,

295
00:15:17,415 --> 00:15:19,185
you donated all this money to Republicans.

296
00:15:19,185 --> 00:15:20,055
Cool story, bro.

297
00:15:20,145 --> 00:15:21,735
You're going to jail for 30 years.

298
00:15:23,235 --> 00:15:24,615
Oh, your business is unviable.

299
00:15:24,645 --> 00:15:27,495
'cause Americas don't wanna work in
chicken farms or pick strawberries.

300
00:15:27,495 --> 00:15:28,335
Like, yeah, too bad.

301
00:15:28,365 --> 00:15:29,085
30 years.

302
00:15:29,235 --> 00:15:30,345
Jail sentence, boom.

303
00:15:30,345 --> 00:15:30,615
Done.

304
00:15:31,575 --> 00:15:36,465
So this is where I, I think the only way
to solve this issue is that it needs to

305
00:15:36,465 --> 00:15:39,315
be legislated and both sides are kind of.

306
00:15:40,334 --> 00:15:44,145
Wrong, because neither side is really
solving the problem at any point.

307
00:15:44,145 --> 00:15:44,204
Yeah.

308
00:15:44,235 --> 00:15:46,275
Jacob Shapiro: I mean, we might as
well be waiting for Bigfoot to come,

309
00:15:46,275 --> 00:15:51,045
because if you look at poll after
poll after poll since the late 1980s,

310
00:15:51,105 --> 00:15:55,755
a majority of Americans have said,
yes, we want immigration law reform.

311
00:15:55,875 --> 00:15:58,814
And this is before you get into the
super polarized days of the two.

312
00:15:58,814 --> 00:16:02,805
Thou, like, no, since like the 1980s,
since like Ted Kennedy and John

313
00:16:02,805 --> 00:16:06,675
McCain and some of these others were
wandering the halls like Americans have

314
00:16:06,675 --> 00:16:07,845
wanted that and they haven't got that.

315
00:16:07,845 --> 00:16:11,115
And it, it goes to show you, um,
there's this concept called effective

316
00:16:11,115 --> 00:16:16,005
polarization where, um, I forget
who, uh, I, I'll have to apologize

317
00:16:16,005 --> 00:16:16,964
to the researcher who did this.

318
00:16:16,964 --> 00:16:17,835
I'm pretty sure he was at Yale.

319
00:16:17,835 --> 00:16:20,685
Anyway, the, the notion being that
actually when it comes to the issues,

320
00:16:21,015 --> 00:16:23,805
Americans are not actually more or
less polarized than they've ever been.

321
00:16:23,805 --> 00:16:27,255
It's just that we demonize the other
side and then we put in the most

322
00:16:27,255 --> 00:16:29,324
polarizing voices and positions of power.

323
00:16:29,925 --> 00:16:32,985
And they get their power from
being angrier and accusing the

324
00:16:32,985 --> 00:16:33,975
other side of other things.

325
00:16:33,975 --> 00:16:36,615
But before we, I, I want to get back to
the immigration point, but I don't wanna

326
00:16:36,615 --> 00:16:39,105
leave the media thing just quite yet.

327
00:16:39,135 --> 00:16:39,795
'cause But wait.

328
00:16:39,855 --> 00:16:40,065
Okay.

329
00:16:40,095 --> 00:16:40,275
Okay.

330
00:16:40,275 --> 00:16:40,935
Go, go, go, go.

331
00:16:40,935 --> 00:16:41,445
Wait, go.

332
00:16:42,015 --> 00:16:46,215
Marko Papic: I just, if I can just,
that's not entirely correct, right?

333
00:16:46,215 --> 00:16:49,395
Like that we haven't had
any, uh, legislative acts.

334
00:16:49,395 --> 00:16:50,295
We did actually.

335
00:16:50,295 --> 00:16:54,555
And here, here is where if you are
a liberal critic of Donald Trump,

336
00:16:54,615 --> 00:16:59,445
here is where you, you know, we
do this podcast for just normal

337
00:16:59,445 --> 00:17:04,454
people who are at a barbecue
having a beer with an uncle, right?

338
00:17:04,575 --> 00:17:05,595
Like, this is what it's about.

339
00:17:05,805 --> 00:17:07,185
This is what we're arming you with.

340
00:17:07,185 --> 00:17:07,665
Tools.

341
00:17:08,085 --> 00:17:12,375
If you're a Republican, we'll argue with
tools to make fun of your liberal friends.

342
00:17:12,435 --> 00:17:16,035
If you're liberal, we'll arm you with
the tools for your Republican uncle.

343
00:17:16,785 --> 00:17:19,095
So, if you're liberal, here
is where the argument ends.

344
00:17:19,125 --> 00:17:19,575
Honestly.

345
00:17:19,635 --> 00:17:21,555
This is where you, this
is where you just end it.

346
00:17:22,485 --> 00:17:26,745
Anybody who says anything, you just
go and say, Hey, look up why the

347
00:17:26,745 --> 00:17:29,325
bipartisan bill collapsed in early 2024.

348
00:17:29,790 --> 00:17:36,840
There was one, and then Donald Trump
did say to his allies in the Senate,

349
00:17:37,409 --> 00:17:41,850
don't sign on to a comprehensive,
bipartisan way to solve this issue

350
00:17:41,879 --> 00:17:43,230
because I need it for the election.

351
00:17:44,850 --> 00:17:45,030
Yeah.

352
00:17:45,270 --> 00:17:47,730
Now again, he won the
election fair and square.

353
00:17:47,760 --> 00:17:50,189
He's a democratically elected president
of the United States of America.

354
00:17:50,699 --> 00:17:53,058
And if a Democratic collective
president of the United States of

355
00:17:53,058 --> 00:17:57,600
America wants to enforce federal
law with federal law enforcement,

356
00:17:57,600 --> 00:17:58,560
I don't know what to tell you.

357
00:17:58,949 --> 00:18:00,240
You can't say it's illegal.

358
00:18:00,419 --> 00:18:04,860
You might say, well, it's unfair, it's
this and that, but sanctuary cities, that

359
00:18:04,860 --> 00:18:07,320
is a figment of somebody's imagination.

360
00:18:07,320 --> 00:18:09,929
Like you can't just declare a
city, a sanctuary city, sorry.

361
00:18:09,929 --> 00:18:11,549
Mayors like, you know, Karen Bass.

362
00:18:11,550 --> 00:18:15,000
Like, Hey, maybe you should make sure we
have water in our fire hydrants, you know?

363
00:18:15,360 --> 00:18:18,659
But anyways, leaving that aside,
the point is you can't, like

364
00:18:18,750 --> 00:18:20,310
what does a sanctuary city needs?

365
00:18:20,370 --> 00:18:24,000
It means that local law enforcement
doesn't cooperate with federal

366
00:18:24,000 --> 00:18:26,340
law enforcement, but federal law.

367
00:18:27,090 --> 00:18:29,790
Immigration law and federal
officials are going to enforce it.

368
00:18:29,790 --> 00:18:33,210
So the truth is, president
Trump can do what he's doing.

369
00:18:33,300 --> 00:18:38,100
It's legal and protesting
it is kind of meh, you know?

370
00:18:38,100 --> 00:18:42,870
Well, well, but But again,
but again, but again, sorry.

371
00:18:42,870 --> 00:18:43,560
Sorry to interrupt.

372
00:18:43,560 --> 00:18:48,060
But again, the original sin here, I
mean the original, original sin is

373
00:18:48,060 --> 00:18:51,420
that American economy and American
voters and American businesses

374
00:18:51,510 --> 00:18:53,130
definitely want the illegal immigrants.

375
00:18:53,190 --> 00:18:54,330
That's the original sin.

376
00:18:55,170 --> 00:18:59,400
But the second original sin is that when
somebody tried to do something about it,

377
00:18:59,610 --> 00:19:02,340
a bipartisan bill that you say is Bigfoot.

378
00:19:02,520 --> 00:19:07,290
We had Bigfoot in early 2024, and
President Trump told his allies

379
00:19:07,320 --> 00:19:11,100
in the Senate, don't sign onto
this bill, don't solve this issue.

380
00:19:11,370 --> 00:19:14,010
I need it to be a problem
so I can win the election.

381
00:19:14,910 --> 00:19:15,150
Yeah.

382
00:19:15,150 --> 00:19:18,030
And so that is something out of,
in this timeline that I think

383
00:19:18,030 --> 00:19:19,260
you forgot in the introduction.

384
00:19:19,260 --> 00:19:20,550
It's a very important point.

385
00:19:20,550 --> 00:19:22,380
We had a bipartisan solution.

386
00:19:22,920 --> 00:19:25,860
Well, I, I'm not sure how
good it was, but like at least

387
00:19:25,860 --> 00:19:26,700
there was the beginning of it.

388
00:19:26,730 --> 00:19:26,790
Yeah,

389
00:19:26,790 --> 00:19:28,890
Jacob Shapiro: there was an attempt
because, because because Biden

390
00:19:28,890 --> 00:19:32,010
was an old school legislature and
like his biggest skill, whatever

391
00:19:32,010 --> 00:19:33,810
you think about Joe Biden and Yes.

392
00:19:33,810 --> 00:19:37,080
His, his loss of, you know, uh, faculties
at the end there and things like that.

393
00:19:37,080 --> 00:19:37,081
Yes.

394
00:19:37,086 --> 00:19:37,740
That was his superpower.

395
00:19:37,740 --> 00:19:38,370
His superpower.

396
00:19:38,370 --> 00:19:41,490
He was, he was one of the old guard,
he was one of the only ones left that

397
00:19:41,490 --> 00:19:46,110
could build bipartisan legislation and he
did some interesting things in 2021 and

398
00:19:46,110 --> 00:19:49,530
2022, and by 24 he was too long in the
tooth and he didn't have the cash there.

399
00:19:49,530 --> 00:19:53,190
But if you look back at the history since
the 1980s, I bet you would find multiple

400
00:19:53,190 --> 00:19:57,810
bills that died on the shoals of, you
know, a presidential race or maybe new

401
00:19:57,810 --> 00:20:01,110
Gingrich gotten there, or like, you
know, all, all the time like immigration.

402
00:20:01,645 --> 00:20:04,285
Is held up at the last minute, even though
it's something that people agree on.

403
00:20:04,495 --> 00:20:07,105
But I I, I want to go back, 'cause
this goes back to the media point a

404
00:20:07,105 --> 00:20:09,415
little bit, which is, is it legal?

405
00:20:09,925 --> 00:20:13,495
Because I'm, I'm with you up until a
point, and I think the media helped

406
00:20:13,495 --> 00:20:16,795
create the story and Trump's response
to the media, like it was almost like

407
00:20:16,795 --> 00:20:20,815
a self-reinforcing, um, you know,
avalanche of things that happened.

408
00:20:21,025 --> 00:20:23,065
But I don't know that
it is actually legal.

409
00:20:23,065 --> 00:20:26,575
And when I, I sat up in my chair
a little bit when I, you know,

410
00:20:26,575 --> 00:20:30,595
read the first headline about the
Marines, then I was like, okay, now

411
00:20:30,595 --> 00:20:32,095
we're sort of like National Guard.

412
00:20:32,095 --> 00:20:33,625
Like I can sort of get on there.

413
00:20:33,625 --> 00:20:35,185
It's not, it's, it's not perfect.

414
00:20:35,185 --> 00:20:40,315
Like the last time, um, um, the
Insurrection Act was invoked was 1992 in

415
00:20:40,315 --> 00:20:42,445
Los Angeles for the Rodney King protest.

416
00:20:42,445 --> 00:20:46,375
The George HW Bush sent, you know,
national Guard troops to Los Angeles.

417
00:20:46,615 --> 00:20:50,515
Um, that was taken with the governor's
request, but Trump isn't even using that.

418
00:20:50,515 --> 00:20:54,565
He's using something called section
1 2 4 0 6 of the US Code, which

419
00:20:54,565 --> 00:20:57,565
gives the president the authority to
call members of the National Guard.

420
00:20:57,955 --> 00:20:58,465
Um.

421
00:20:58,915 --> 00:21:03,535
Of any state into federal service when
quote, there is a rebellion or a danger

422
00:21:03,535 --> 00:21:07,255
of a rebellion against the authority
of the government of the United States.

423
00:21:07,315 --> 00:21:10,345
And the President can do whatever
he wants to repel the invasion

424
00:21:10,615 --> 00:21:12,145
or suppress the rebellion.

425
00:21:12,715 --> 00:21:14,485
This is not an invasion or a rebellion.

426
00:21:14,485 --> 00:21:17,065
So we're already like on
extremely shaky ground.

427
00:21:17,095 --> 00:21:20,065
And that's the National
Guard, that's not the Marines.

428
00:21:20,065 --> 00:21:22,435
And you start talking about the
Marines and I'm starting to think

429
00:21:22,435 --> 00:21:26,215
about the Rubicon, like literally the
Rubicon and the deployment of Roman

430
00:21:26,215 --> 00:21:29,245
soldiers against Roman citizens and
like, what the f is going on here.

431
00:21:29,245 --> 00:21:30,085
So go, go, go, go.

432
00:21:30,115 --> 00:21:30,355
Sorry.

433
00:21:30,955 --> 00:21:31,135
Marko Papic: Okay.

434
00:21:31,270 --> 00:21:32,395
So, so two things.

435
00:21:32,395 --> 00:21:32,755
Two things.

436
00:21:32,755 --> 00:21:37,345
First of all, uh, to just clarify
what is definitely not illegal, it

437
00:21:37,345 --> 00:21:42,205
is definitely not illegal for law
enforcement officers of the federal

438
00:21:42,205 --> 00:21:44,095
government to enforce federal law.

439
00:21:44,455 --> 00:21:44,635
Yes.

440
00:21:44,665 --> 00:21:48,895
What I mean by that is that going
around and picking illegal immigrants

441
00:21:49,225 --> 00:21:53,095
and putting them in jail, like, sorry.

442
00:21:53,745 --> 00:21:55,095
That is, that's legal.

443
00:21:55,815 --> 00:21:59,685
The federal government, like
again, why did America close

444
00:21:59,685 --> 00:22:01,544
its eyes for 45 years to this?

445
00:22:01,544 --> 00:22:04,335
Because everyone profited
from it effectively.

446
00:22:04,335 --> 00:22:06,284
This is how we've built this country.

447
00:22:06,675 --> 00:22:09,615
And we don't have the laws
really, we don't enforce the

448
00:22:09,615 --> 00:22:11,655
laws against people who hire.

449
00:22:12,555 --> 00:22:15,014
Again, you cannot in most
countries in the world.

450
00:22:15,014 --> 00:22:18,764
And I, one of the things I wanna
do on this podcast in, because, uh,

451
00:22:19,754 --> 00:22:23,145
I suspect our audience is going to
be almost overwhelmingly American,

452
00:22:23,145 --> 00:22:26,774
and, and hopefully that will change
over time as, uh, we piss off enough

453
00:22:26,774 --> 00:22:28,004
Americans that they don't listen to us.

454
00:22:28,004 --> 00:22:29,115
Just kidding, just kidding.

455
00:22:29,115 --> 00:22:29,685
Just kidding.

456
00:22:30,885 --> 00:22:35,055
No, but like, I just really want to always
use examples from the rest of the world.

457
00:22:35,294 --> 00:22:39,044
You know, illegal immigration is an
issue everywhere, but really only

458
00:22:39,044 --> 00:22:41,325
in America does the society close.

459
00:22:41,325 --> 00:22:46,935
Its eyes so much to this reality
that it allows the country to

460
00:22:46,935 --> 00:22:48,764
go on hiring illegal immigrants.

461
00:22:49,305 --> 00:22:51,585
I can't tell you how
many places in Europe.

462
00:22:51,990 --> 00:22:55,320
You face seriously con,
serious consequences for

463
00:22:55,320 --> 00:22:56,610
employing an illegal immigrant.

464
00:22:57,570 --> 00:23:01,170
Like you go to jail, you
get fined significantly.

465
00:23:01,170 --> 00:23:02,640
And, and that's just not the case here.

466
00:23:02,640 --> 00:23:03,660
So that's the first issue.

467
00:23:03,660 --> 00:23:08,550
Now that being said, there are laws in
the books, and if the president gets

468
00:23:08,550 --> 00:23:12,060
elected promising, he's gonna enforce
them as President Trump clearly did.

469
00:23:12,240 --> 00:23:13,200
That's not illegal.

470
00:23:13,800 --> 00:23:16,770
So those ice raids are not illegal.

471
00:23:16,800 --> 00:23:16,890
Mm-hmm.

472
00:23:16,890 --> 00:23:17,010
Yeah.

473
00:23:17,100 --> 00:23:21,840
And if they wanna go into a school
or a church, sorry, mayors of random,

474
00:23:22,800 --> 00:23:27,360
democratically held cities, you have
no authority to prevent the federal

475
00:23:27,360 --> 00:23:30,270
government of the United States of
America from enforcing federal law.

476
00:23:30,930 --> 00:23:31,890
That's just a fact.

477
00:23:31,890 --> 00:23:35,220
So I know that sounds like
Fox News segment, but No.

478
00:23:35,940 --> 00:23:38,370
Well, that's where Fox News is right now.

479
00:23:38,970 --> 00:23:45,600
To your point, I. Deploying National
Guard over, uh, you know, 14 people

480
00:23:45,600 --> 00:23:50,909
calling in poor Waymo's and then
torching them is obviously ridiculous.

481
00:23:51,000 --> 00:23:55,709
The LAPD is probably the most competent
law enforcement on the planet in

482
00:23:55,709 --> 00:24:02,040
handling protests because as Tupac Shakur
correctly surmised, we tend to blow

483
00:24:02,040 --> 00:24:04,260
stuff up in Los Angeles quite often.

484
00:24:04,379 --> 00:24:07,919
That's just how we celebrate national
championships in basketball and so on.

485
00:24:08,189 --> 00:24:09,810
You know, I mean, you wouldn't
know anything about that.

486
00:24:09,810 --> 00:24:10,230
No, I wouldn't.

487
00:24:10,235 --> 00:24:14,070
Given that you were once an
Atlanta Hawks fan and so hot, but

488
00:24:14,250 --> 00:24:14,610
Jacob Shapiro: thank you.

489
00:24:14,669 --> 00:24:15,240
Thank you for that.

490
00:24:15,929 --> 00:24:18,209
Marko Papic: And now it's how
you're even more removed from this,

491
00:24:18,209 --> 00:24:19,290
given that you're Pelicans fan.

492
00:24:19,290 --> 00:24:22,860
But my point is that, so now
we can discuss your point.

493
00:24:22,860 --> 00:24:26,909
I just want to clarify that when I said
that what happened was not illegal, I

494
00:24:26,909 --> 00:24:30,659
mean that the president of the United
States of America can ask his federal

495
00:24:30,659 --> 00:24:34,169
law enforcement to go and enforce
federal law, and that's where the

496
00:24:34,169 --> 00:24:35,610
illegal immigration thing comes in.

497
00:24:36,000 --> 00:24:39,600
Um, then the protests happen and then
he calls the National Guard, you know.

498
00:24:40,650 --> 00:24:42,810
It's, it's just incredible
how far we've come.

499
00:24:43,590 --> 00:24:45,360
So now I'm gonna sound like CNN, right?

500
00:24:45,360 --> 00:24:47,340
We, we sound like Fox News a second ago.

501
00:24:47,340 --> 00:24:50,880
Now we're gonna sound
like CNN George W. Bush.

502
00:24:51,030 --> 00:24:53,130
George W. Bush, right?

503
00:24:53,430 --> 00:24:56,520
The guy who like invaded countries
'cause like they were there,

504
00:24:57,600 --> 00:24:59,940
Jacob Shapiro: or, or because
they, they, uh, they didn't do it.

505
00:24:59,940 --> 00:25:01,110
His daddy told them to do.

506
00:25:01,170 --> 00:25:01,380
Yeah.

507
00:25:02,520 --> 00:25:03,060
Marko Papic: Or yes.

508
00:25:03,270 --> 00:25:05,310
So like George W. Bush.

509
00:25:06,210 --> 00:25:07,440
So Katrina happens.

510
00:25:07,440 --> 00:25:08,220
You are in New Orleans.

511
00:25:08,220 --> 00:25:10,800
So this is part of, uh, you probably
know this much better than me.

512
00:25:11,100 --> 00:25:12,210
Katrina happens.

513
00:25:12,270 --> 00:25:13,110
And, uh,

514
00:25:13,830 --> 00:25:16,470
Jacob Shapiro: oh, and by the way,
uh, if anybody from FEMA is listening,

515
00:25:16,680 --> 00:25:18,720
Katrina was a hurricane that happened.

516
00:25:18,720 --> 00:25:21,270
And yes, hurricanes do
happen in the United States.

517
00:25:21,270 --> 00:25:22,380
Please get your ax together.

518
00:25:22,380 --> 00:25:22,830
Hurricanes

519
00:25:22,830 --> 00:25:24,420
Marko Papic: spin fast.

520
00:25:26,790 --> 00:25:27,390
Jacob Shapiro: Sorry, go on.

521
00:25:27,600 --> 00:25:30,870
Marko Papic: So, okay, so the
Katrina happens and the governor of

522
00:25:30,900 --> 00:25:35,190
Louisiana, for some bizarre reason
doesn't call up the National Guard.

523
00:25:37,260 --> 00:25:38,790
I forgot why, but.

524
00:25:39,870 --> 00:25:46,080
There was a delay, and George W. Bush
like really wanted to call up the

525
00:25:46,080 --> 00:25:48,899
National Guard and overrule the governor.

526
00:25:49,560 --> 00:25:51,990
And he struggled with this decision.

527
00:25:51,990 --> 00:25:55,770
And one of the reasons that
he didn't is because he did

528
00:25:55,770 --> 00:25:57,000
not wanna cross the Rubicon.

529
00:25:57,750 --> 00:25:58,439
Can you believe that?

530
00:25:59,340 --> 00:26:06,330
Like, this wasn't like in 1953,
president Eisenhower really

531
00:26:06,330 --> 00:26:08,159
struggled with the morality?

532
00:26:08,159 --> 00:26:08,699
No, no, no.

533
00:26:08,939 --> 00:26:11,550
This was like 20 years ago.

534
00:26:12,090 --> 00:26:16,620
It wasn't that long ago, and it
was in the middle of Patriot Act.

535
00:26:16,740 --> 00:26:19,260
It was in the middle of all sorts
of ways in which the federal

536
00:26:19,260 --> 00:26:23,399
government expanded its surveillance
of Americans and all this stuff.

537
00:26:23,399 --> 00:26:26,879
It's not like George W. Bush was
some, you know, Pinco Communist

538
00:26:26,909 --> 00:26:28,679
liberal, like no, no, no.

539
00:26:28,679 --> 00:26:32,100
He was George W. Bush, a NeoCon.

540
00:26:32,760 --> 00:26:36,330
Who did all sorts of things,
but he had to reflect on this.

541
00:26:36,570 --> 00:26:38,790
There's a hurricane, it hits Louisiana.

542
00:26:39,090 --> 00:26:40,950
The governor doesn't call
up the National Guard.

543
00:26:40,950 --> 00:26:42,030
Should I call it up?

544
00:26:42,480 --> 00:26:43,020
I don't know.

545
00:26:43,020 --> 00:26:44,040
I don't think I should.

546
00:26:44,100 --> 00:26:46,560
I, I don't think I have
the legality to it.

547
00:26:46,950 --> 00:26:49,380
And then you've got Donald Trump
being like, yeah, let's go up.

548
00:26:49,380 --> 00:26:51,270
Let's get the Marines,
let's get the Osprey.

549
00:26:51,750 --> 00:26:54,030
You know, they can repel
down and we can like, yeah.

550
00:26:54,540 --> 00:26:56,220
Like, well, and he, and
that's, and that's where

551
00:26:56,399 --> 00:26:58,770
Jacob Shapiro: during his first
administration, the George Floyd

552
00:26:58,770 --> 00:27:02,639
protest happened and he wanted to do
this, and he had advisors around him

553
00:27:02,639 --> 00:27:03,899
push back and say, you can't do this.

554
00:27:03,899 --> 00:27:05,879
And you had the Pentagon push
back and say, no, no, no.

555
00:27:05,879 --> 00:27:07,590
The US military is not a police force.

556
00:27:07,590 --> 00:27:10,350
Like we don't go and put down,
uh, protests and things like that.

557
00:27:10,350 --> 00:27:13,260
And he said on the campaign trail
multiple times, that was a mistake.

558
00:27:13,260 --> 00:27:14,100
I wish I had done it.

559
00:27:14,100 --> 00:27:16,170
If I get a chance again,
I'm going to do it.

560
00:27:16,170 --> 00:27:16,980
So there's part of that.

561
00:27:17,040 --> 00:27:20,730
And, you know, to your point about
George WI mean, there's a very short

562
00:27:20,730 --> 00:27:24,899
list of times that a, a, a president
has deployed the National Guard

563
00:27:24,899 --> 00:27:28,740
against the wishes of a governor or
without a request from a governor.

564
00:27:28,889 --> 00:27:31,590
The, yeah, it's the last,
the last time it happened.

565
00:27:31,820 --> 00:27:36,740
Was, uh, could we call him an
Uber liberal, I dunno, 1965 LBJ.

566
00:27:36,740 --> 00:27:40,550
And he was doing it to protect Selma,
the protestors in Selma, Alabama.

567
00:27:40,850 --> 00:27:43,700
Which, you know, that's interesting
too, by the way, for the liberals,

568
00:27:43,700 --> 00:27:46,820
because it's like, okay, like a
very liberal president doing liberal

569
00:27:46,820 --> 00:27:49,880
things like deployed National Guard
into a conservative state in order

570
00:27:49,880 --> 00:27:51,770
to make sure that something happened.

571
00:27:51,770 --> 00:27:55,760
So like there's a weird, anyway,
there's a reason that people were

572
00:27:55,760 --> 00:27:58,790
uncomfortable about that because
the precedent sets is dangerous.

573
00:27:58,790 --> 00:28:00,470
And we haven't sort of
flirted with that before.

574
00:28:00,470 --> 00:28:04,700
But it's LBJ and then it hadn't
happened since the Civil War.

575
00:28:05,330 --> 00:28:07,040
Like, that's, that's the list.

576
00:28:07,130 --> 00:28:09,950
So it's like, it's a very,
I think there was one in,

577
00:28:10,490 --> 00:28:15,650
Marko Papic: I think it was 1950s
as well for, uh, school segregation.

578
00:28:15,920 --> 00:28:17,570
Jacob Shapiro: Was that, I
thought that was also in Alabama.

579
00:28:17,570 --> 00:28:20,240
I thought that was with the request
of the governor, but maybe not.

580
00:28:20,270 --> 00:28:22,370
Um, I'll, I'll look it up real fast.

581
00:28:22,370 --> 00:28:22,550
I think.

582
00:28:22,640 --> 00:28:23,360
Marko Papic: Well, it doesn't matter.

583
00:28:23,360 --> 00:28:24,680
The point is it's civil war.

584
00:28:24,800 --> 00:28:24,980
Yeah.

585
00:28:25,640 --> 00:28:31,520
And then like two times due to
racial, uh, inequalities in America.

586
00:28:32,310 --> 00:28:33,990
Fifties and sixties or maybe once.

587
00:28:34,290 --> 00:28:37,889
The point is it, it has, it, it,
it hasn't happened many times.

588
00:28:38,310 --> 00:28:42,570
And the severity of these protests doesn't
even come close to the 2020, by the way.

589
00:28:42,659 --> 00:28:42,929
Jacob Shapiro: Yeah.

590
00:28:43,139 --> 00:28:44,370
Oh, and by the way, you're, you're right.

591
00:28:44,370 --> 00:28:44,820
I'm sorry.

592
00:28:44,820 --> 00:28:49,080
So Selma is President Johnson, 1965,
university of Alabama integration,

593
00:28:49,080 --> 00:28:54,419
1963, president Kennedy, and of
course now President Kennedy's nephew.

594
00:28:54,419 --> 00:28:54,810
Oh my bad.

595
00:28:54,810 --> 00:28:58,889
Six three nephew, RFK Jr. Also just firing
entire boards of vaccine scientists.

596
00:28:58,889 --> 00:29:00,419
So there's a Kennedy running around too.

597
00:29:00,425 --> 00:29:00,675
Don't to talk.

598
00:29:00,675 --> 00:29:01,355
But yeah, we

599
00:29:01,355 --> 00:29:04,230
Marko Papic: don't have enough
bandwidth to Jacob to deal

600
00:29:04,230 --> 00:29:05,580
with all that's happening.

601
00:29:05,610 --> 00:29:08,071
We'll have to leave the
vaccine for later, later.

602
00:29:08,129 --> 00:29:10,949
Hopefully none of our
children die in the meantime.

603
00:29:11,159 --> 00:29:11,790
Knock on wood.

604
00:29:11,790 --> 00:29:12,389
Let's move on.

605
00:29:12,389 --> 00:29:12,570
Okay.

606
00:29:12,689 --> 00:29:12,840
Alright.

607
00:29:12,840 --> 00:29:13,530
So I've, I've already gotten

608
00:29:13,530 --> 00:29:15,659
Jacob Shapiro: some hate mail for,
so for some very previous short

609
00:29:15,659 --> 00:29:17,340
vaccine takes here, so keep it coming.

610
00:29:17,340 --> 00:29:20,010
I'm happy to, to absorb
all of your vaccine hate if

611
00:29:20,010 --> 00:29:21,480
you're a, anyway, go on Marco.

612
00:29:21,480 --> 00:29:21,720
Sorry.

613
00:29:22,695 --> 00:29:25,785
Marko Papic: No, but like,
okay, so, uh, I like your point.

614
00:29:25,875 --> 00:29:28,965
Your point is there's this weird
duality, dichotomy, you know, like

615
00:29:28,965 --> 00:29:31,185
protesting, uh, protecting protestors.

616
00:29:31,485 --> 00:29:36,885
And now, um, you know, uh, you know,
standing aside, em, I will say the one

617
00:29:36,885 --> 00:29:41,325
difference between 2020, the social
justice protest that happened, is

618
00:29:41,325 --> 00:29:44,865
that they weren't necess, I mean, not
necessarily, they were not targeting

619
00:29:45,075 --> 00:29:46,605
federal law enforcement officials.

620
00:29:46,605 --> 00:29:46,695
Mm-hmm.

621
00:29:46,935 --> 00:29:49,335
Or federal, like federal government.

622
00:29:49,905 --> 00:29:54,765
And what happened over the weekend in Los
Angeles is that the protests started at

623
00:29:54,765 --> 00:30:00,735
the detention center downtown Los Angeles,
where basically the, the crowd suspected

624
00:30:01,065 --> 00:30:07,275
ICE agents had taken, you know, um, uh,
had taken some of the illegal immigrants

625
00:30:07,275 --> 00:30:08,505
that were rounded up in ICE raid.

626
00:30:09,015 --> 00:30:12,225
So you could make an argument
if you're at the White House

627
00:30:13,095 --> 00:30:14,685
that you're protecting federal.

628
00:30:15,165 --> 00:30:19,395
Basically, uh, facilities that
are literally under attack

629
00:30:19,395 --> 00:30:22,665
because they're federal facilities
and they're under attack for

630
00:30:22,665 --> 00:30:24,885
basically enforcing federal law.

631
00:30:25,155 --> 00:30:28,605
The problem here, where that breaks
down is that, again, LAPD wasn't

632
00:30:28,605 --> 00:30:30,465
standing aside and letting this happen.

633
00:30:30,915 --> 00:30:36,675
They were intervening and intervening in,
in force and with, uh, serious skill sets.

634
00:30:37,034 --> 00:30:42,524
You know, this isn't like, I mean,
you know, if there were protests

635
00:30:42,524 --> 00:30:46,185
in like Vermont, I could see why
the National Guard would be needed.

636
00:30:46,725 --> 00:30:51,764
But this is Los Angeles and it's,
if there's one place in America

637
00:30:51,794 --> 00:30:56,085
that knows how to handle protests
and to deal with the situation,

638
00:30:56,085 --> 00:30:57,975
it's LAPD, it's Los Angeles.

639
00:30:57,975 --> 00:31:01,575
And that's where I think the, the
argument by the White House really

640
00:31:01,575 --> 00:31:03,375
breaks down and it's a made for TV event.

641
00:31:03,375 --> 00:31:04,365
Now, is it illegal?

642
00:31:04,815 --> 00:31:07,004
Is it illegal for president of
the United States of America

643
00:31:07,004 --> 00:31:08,625
to call up a National Guard?

644
00:31:09,075 --> 00:31:12,675
I mean, it's not, I would argue it isn't.

645
00:31:12,855 --> 00:31:14,415
Jacob Shapiro: Uh, but maybe
you have a different take.

646
00:31:15,690 --> 00:31:22,920
Can you federalize the National
Guard in order to police protests?

647
00:31:23,490 --> 00:31:26,310
I don't, I, I mean, I'm not a lawyer.

648
00:31:26,310 --> 00:31:29,250
We'd have to get a lawyer on here,
but based on my reading of the

649
00:31:29,250 --> 00:31:31,410
insurrection, but he's not even
invoking the Insurrection Act.

650
00:31:31,410 --> 00:31:35,520
He's invoking, he's invoking, he's not
section 1 2 4 0 6 of the US code, which

651
00:31:35,520 --> 00:31:38,220
I hadn't heard of before until I was
reading this on the plane yesterday.

652
00:31:38,370 --> 00:31:41,610
And again, I'll just quote it like he
can call in members of the National

653
00:31:41,610 --> 00:31:44,250
Guard as many as he wants, but.

654
00:31:44,730 --> 00:31:49,320
When there is quote, a rebellion or
a danger of a rebellion against the

655
00:31:49,320 --> 00:31:51,990
authority of the government of the
United States, and then he can as

656
00:31:51,990 --> 00:31:56,280
many troops as he wants to repel the
invasion or suppress the rebellion.

657
00:31:56,280 --> 00:31:59,310
Yeah, there's definitely, there is no
self-respecting court of law that is gonna

658
00:31:59,310 --> 00:32:04,140
call what is happening in Los Angeles, a
rebellion against the federal government.

659
00:32:04,320 --> 00:32:07,230
Now, if California secedes like,
then we have a very interesting

660
00:32:07,230 --> 00:32:08,790
like theoretical conversation.

661
00:32:08,795 --> 00:32:09,300
We're, we're going there man.

662
00:32:09,300 --> 00:32:10,834
We'll get there, but like
this, we're going there, this,

663
00:32:11,070 --> 00:32:11,550
Marko Papic: we'll get there.

664
00:32:11,550 --> 00:32:12,486
This is not that we're getting there.

665
00:32:12,491 --> 00:32:14,310
Jacob Shapiro: So maybe you could
use the insurrection act like

666
00:32:14,310 --> 00:32:15,270
maybe you could paper it up.

667
00:32:15,270 --> 00:32:18,390
But this to this to me, is the thing
that is disturbing and I think the media.

668
00:32:18,990 --> 00:32:23,820
Honestly shot at SWAT early because the
thing that you cover here is the illegal

669
00:32:23,820 --> 00:32:30,330
deployment of US military force to police,
uh, you know, us even violent protesters.

670
00:32:30,360 --> 00:32:33,060
Like, no, like, that's
not, that is illegal.

671
00:32:33,060 --> 00:32:34,560
That is not what is supposed to happen.

672
00:32:34,560 --> 00:32:37,860
And that is that slippery
slope where Trump doesn't care.

673
00:32:38,040 --> 00:32:39,900
He's breaking norms left and right.

674
00:32:39,930 --> 00:32:42,600
All that matters to him is a,
that he looks like a strong man,

675
00:32:42,630 --> 00:32:44,220
and b, that the precedent is set.

676
00:32:44,220 --> 00:32:47,910
And I think we should also say, while
all this is happening, it's perfect

677
00:32:47,910 --> 00:32:51,060
timing for him, which makes me even
more suspicious because while all this

678
00:32:51,060 --> 00:32:54,090
is happening, yeah, the Chinese and
the American negotiators are sitting

679
00:32:54,090 --> 00:32:57,600
there and I'm sure the US is basically
bending over for the Chinese saying,

680
00:32:57,600 --> 00:32:59,340
we don't want the trade war anymore.

681
00:32:59,340 --> 00:33:00,480
Let's take down the tariffs.

682
00:33:00,480 --> 00:33:01,530
Like, and he gets to look tough.

683
00:33:01,530 --> 00:33:02,105
Let's go there next.

684
00:33:02,110 --> 00:33:06,240
The Elon Trump thing is gone because Elon
and Trump are now kissing faces at each

685
00:33:06,240 --> 00:33:10,080
other, and Trump is the man of action
versus the pussy weenie liberals who are

686
00:33:10,080 --> 00:33:11,640
just like, yeah, we're gonna sue you.

687
00:33:11,640 --> 00:33:13,500
It's like, it's literally perfect.

688
00:33:13,500 --> 00:33:15,600
And the last thing I'll say before
I let you say whatever you want is.

689
00:33:16,260 --> 00:33:19,740
I said this, I re-quoted this on,
on XI dunno if you're an Andor fan.

690
00:33:19,770 --> 00:33:21,210
I'm an Andor fan, but, uh oh.

691
00:33:21,270 --> 00:33:21,450
Yeah.

692
00:33:21,480 --> 00:33:22,155
Shout out to I am.

693
00:33:22,560 --> 00:33:22,890
I love it.

694
00:33:22,890 --> 00:33:25,350
Shout out to at, uh, MK tune.

695
00:33:25,680 --> 00:33:26,550
I'm just gonna quote him.

696
00:33:26,550 --> 00:33:30,180
You remember that part in Andor when all
those reporters on Gorman made it sound

697
00:33:30,180 --> 00:33:34,290
like the Gormans were very violent and
the empire just had descendants, soldiers

698
00:33:34,290 --> 00:33:35,730
to stop things from getting out of hand.

699
00:33:35,730 --> 00:33:38,610
But in reality, the soldiers
wanted things to get out of hand.

700
00:33:39,570 --> 00:33:40,020
Yeah.

701
00:33:40,260 --> 00:33:43,440
Like starting to sound like a little
bit of a false flag, isn't it?

702
00:33:43,440 --> 00:33:46,470
Because the worse it gets, the more he
can deploy, the more he can be the man

703
00:33:46,470 --> 00:33:50,730
of action, the more he can pull the
wool over the eyes of his supporters

704
00:33:50,730 --> 00:33:53,310
who could look at what's happening in
London right now between the US and

705
00:33:53,310 --> 00:33:55,380
China and just see total capitulation.

706
00:33:55,410 --> 00:33:56,880
That's what I'm expecting anyway.

707
00:33:56,880 --> 00:33:57,360
So sorry.

708
00:33:57,420 --> 00:33:57,660
Go.

709
00:33:57,810 --> 00:33:58,920
Marko Papic: So, so, yeah, yeah.

710
00:33:58,920 --> 00:33:59,670
No, no, no, no, no.

711
00:33:59,910 --> 00:34:00,600
Thank you for that.

712
00:34:00,600 --> 00:34:07,170
And I, I just wanna say one thing, to
be fair to Trump, the National Guard

713
00:34:07,740 --> 00:34:09,690
were not deployed to control protests.

714
00:34:11,804 --> 00:34:14,475
You know, for the most part,
they stayed protecting the

715
00:34:14,475 --> 00:34:15,554
building, the federal building.

716
00:34:16,514 --> 00:34:22,034
So, to be fair, you could argue
he's augmenting, he's letting

717
00:34:22,034 --> 00:34:25,560
the LAPD have more resources so
they don't have to No, he's not.

718
00:34:25,980 --> 00:34:26,534
Or, or he's like

719
00:34:26,534 --> 00:34:28,304
Jacob Shapiro: flirting with
just how, what, just how far

720
00:34:28,304 --> 00:34:29,714
can I push the line here?

721
00:34:29,714 --> 00:34:30,764
Like, oh, obviously

722
00:34:30,795 --> 00:34:33,165
Marko Papic: no, obviously, obviously
he's doing everything you're saying

723
00:34:33,165 --> 00:34:34,484
and, and I don't wanna pivot to that.

724
00:34:34,484 --> 00:34:38,444
I just wanted to like,
give just that one defense.

725
00:34:38,444 --> 00:34:38,475
Okay.

726
00:34:38,534 --> 00:34:43,304
One defense is that the, the way that
the National Guard has been used thus

727
00:34:43,304 --> 00:34:47,145
far in literal ways on the streets
of Los Angeles is that they have been

728
00:34:47,145 --> 00:34:48,915
confined to this one detention center.

729
00:34:49,634 --> 00:34:53,475
Uh, which means that, you know,
the LAPD doesn't have to do

730
00:34:53,475 --> 00:34:55,514
that, which is like slow clap.

731
00:34:55,514 --> 00:34:55,904
Thank you.

732
00:34:55,995 --> 00:34:58,904
That, that seems like a very
measured way to use them.

733
00:34:59,475 --> 00:35:02,504
And so you are getting the national
news like, oh my God, the, the

734
00:35:02,504 --> 00:35:04,095
Marines are in Los Angeles, but.

735
00:35:05,490 --> 00:35:07,920
They have no role in actual crowd control.

736
00:35:07,920 --> 00:35:10,710
Now moving on to your points
of why the timing is perfect,

737
00:35:10,710 --> 00:35:11,520
'cause we need to go there.

738
00:35:12,300 --> 00:35:16,050
You and I, we were gonna spend all this
time today talking about the Musk Trump,

739
00:35:16,980 --> 00:35:18,930
you know, breakup, which is hilarious.

740
00:35:18,930 --> 00:35:20,310
And it's just so, so amazing.

741
00:35:20,310 --> 00:35:22,140
There's so many things
we can talk about here.

742
00:35:22,560 --> 00:35:26,820
Um, we can talk about, uh, you know, you
mentioned the negotiations on tariffs.

743
00:35:26,820 --> 00:35:26,910
Mm-hmm.

744
00:35:27,150 --> 00:35:30,150
Where the United States of America is
going to make deals, as I've said for the

745
00:35:30,150 --> 00:35:31,860
past six months, we're gonna get deals.

746
00:35:32,370 --> 00:35:35,190
They're not what you think they
are, they're made for TV deals.

747
00:35:35,250 --> 00:35:38,160
And then a bunch of people are like,
wait a minute, I thought we were going

748
00:35:38,160 --> 00:35:43,410
to put up barriers and make everything in
America from a water a, a bottle of water.

749
00:35:43,410 --> 00:35:48,090
You know, like where secretary, uh,
Lunik went on TV and said that we should

750
00:35:48,090 --> 00:35:50,160
all drink Aquafina, not Fiji water.

751
00:35:50,535 --> 00:35:51,225
Like what?

752
00:35:51,884 --> 00:35:52,214
Jacob Shapiro: Oh yeah.

753
00:35:52,275 --> 00:35:52,424
You

754
00:35:52,424 --> 00:35:54,975
Marko Papic: do realize like,
what are you talking about, man?

755
00:35:54,975 --> 00:35:55,424
Like, and, and, and

756
00:35:55,424 --> 00:35:56,924
Jacob Shapiro: that we should
grow bananas in the United States.

757
00:35:56,924 --> 00:35:57,375
I know that.

758
00:35:57,375 --> 00:35:59,055
I know that we're supposed to
be objective on both sides.

759
00:35:59,055 --> 00:36:00,015
I can't with Lutnick.

760
00:36:00,015 --> 00:36:01,904
He's such a fricking moron.

761
00:36:02,295 --> 00:36:02,654
Sorry.

762
00:36:02,654 --> 00:36:02,984
Listen.

763
00:36:02,984 --> 00:36:05,025
You don't have to be,
I'm gonna be objective.

764
00:36:05,025 --> 00:36:05,265
Marko Papic: Okay?

765
00:36:05,415 --> 00:36:07,634
I'm gonna be objective
because you know why?

766
00:36:07,964 --> 00:36:13,575
The best take down of Secretary
Lutnick is a Republican Louisiana

767
00:36:13,575 --> 00:36:14,625
senator who I'm sure you're Yes,

768
00:36:15,075 --> 00:36:15,555
Jacob Shapiro: yes.

769
00:36:15,700 --> 00:36:16,460
I was just jumping out.

770
00:36:16,460 --> 00:36:17,100
Thank you for saying this.

771
00:36:17,100 --> 00:36:17,259
Great.

772
00:36:17,265 --> 00:36:17,984
Kennedy, it was great.

773
00:36:18,705 --> 00:36:19,904
Marko Papic: Senator, Senator.

774
00:36:19,904 --> 00:36:20,535
Like you listen.

775
00:36:20,654 --> 00:36:23,234
Just Google Senator Kennedy Lutnick.

776
00:36:23,234 --> 00:36:25,694
If you're not aware of what I'm
talking about, dear listeners, go

777
00:36:25,694 --> 00:36:29,475
on YouTube, watch, we'll put it
into show notes or whatever it is.

778
00:36:29,475 --> 00:36:31,245
It is unbelievable.

779
00:36:31,484 --> 00:36:35,025
He undresses him the way
that you would a child.

780
00:36:35,475 --> 00:36:40,154
Like, you know, like when my son walks
up to me, he says, daddy, daddy, why

781
00:36:40,154 --> 00:36:42,075
can't we live on the Saturn daddy?

782
00:36:42,345 --> 00:36:43,964
And I'm like, well, lemme tell you son.

783
00:36:44,325 --> 00:36:45,435
That's what he did to him.

784
00:36:45,435 --> 00:36:46,424
He's son to him.

785
00:36:46,830 --> 00:36:48,390
It was embarrassing.

786
00:36:48,390 --> 00:36:52,439
It was, you're the Secretary of
Commerce of the United States of

787
00:36:52,439 --> 00:36:56,040
America, man, and you have no fucking
idea what you're talking about.

788
00:36:56,279 --> 00:36:59,970
And it was a Republican senator
from the great state of Louisiana

789
00:37:00,180 --> 00:37:02,009
who absolutely dismantles him.

790
00:37:02,009 --> 00:37:05,730
So yes, that's what's the
context of this protest?

791
00:37:05,879 --> 00:37:09,480
The context of this protest is that
the United States of America is in

792
00:37:09,480 --> 00:37:11,790
the process of choosing the lubricant

793
00:37:15,810 --> 00:37:17,490
in, in 90 trade wheels.

794
00:37:17,640 --> 00:37:19,709
Number one, I'm, I'm gonna
push for that to be the title

795
00:37:19,709 --> 00:37:20,129
Jacob Shapiro: right there.

796
00:37:20,129 --> 00:37:21,089
Choosing the lubricant.

797
00:37:21,089 --> 00:37:22,410
I don't think it's gonna
get through, but it's too

798
00:37:23,220 --> 00:37:23,310
Marko Papic: good.

799
00:37:23,310 --> 00:37:25,384
Well, mean people are gonna,
unfortunately people are then

800
00:37:25,384 --> 00:37:26,640
gonna think it's about tariffs.

801
00:37:26,640 --> 00:37:27,540
We're not talking about tariffs.

802
00:37:27,540 --> 00:37:30,299
We're just saying like, look,
president Trump makes deals.

803
00:37:30,509 --> 00:37:31,169
He does.

804
00:37:31,379 --> 00:37:32,910
I don't like the taco trade.

805
00:37:33,569 --> 00:37:34,980
Trump always chickens out.

806
00:37:35,250 --> 00:37:39,270
It's pejorative, it's liberal
kind of way to poke at Trump.

807
00:37:39,270 --> 00:37:41,009
Like he's not chickening out.

808
00:37:41,220 --> 00:37:42,779
He's going to get deals.

809
00:37:43,095 --> 00:37:45,825
That will be marginally positive
for the United States of America.

810
00:37:46,035 --> 00:37:50,384
But if you are in the Howard Lunik,
Peter Navarro camp of isolationism,

811
00:37:50,654 --> 00:37:52,125
you are gonna be disappointed.

812
00:37:52,964 --> 00:37:57,705
You know, like, sorry, Ben Bannon,
the Benon Knights are gonna lose.

813
00:37:58,214 --> 00:37:58,335
Duh.

814
00:37:58,964 --> 00:37:59,355
Right.

815
00:37:59,535 --> 00:38:00,944
So that's, that's number one.

816
00:38:01,245 --> 00:38:04,424
Then your other point was, uh,
wait, you mentioned the tariffs

817
00:38:04,424 --> 00:38:05,625
and you mentioned Elon Musk.

818
00:38:05,745 --> 00:38:05,895
Yeah.

819
00:38:05,924 --> 00:38:06,435
Like, right?

820
00:38:06,435 --> 00:38:06,525
Mm-hmm.

821
00:38:06,884 --> 00:38:08,625
This was supposed to
be the administration.

822
00:38:08,625 --> 00:38:11,865
Trump is empowered by the
richest, smartest man alive,

823
00:38:12,194 --> 00:38:13,245
who is kind of like, who?

824
00:38:13,935 --> 00:38:15,254
But like, hey, he's cool.

825
00:38:15,555 --> 00:38:15,944
Right?

826
00:38:16,305 --> 00:38:17,444
So that's gone.

827
00:38:17,685 --> 00:38:21,254
And then the final one that you didn't
mention is that the one big beautiful

828
00:38:21,525 --> 00:38:28,785
bill is kind of one marginally sized,
but like, yet somehow effective.

829
00:38:28,785 --> 00:38:35,775
You know, kind of a bill doesn't get you
off the first time, you know, gotta go

830
00:38:35,775 --> 00:38:40,845
to the shower, you know, but like, eh,
it's like, it's, it's not bad, you know?

831
00:38:41,085 --> 00:38:41,714
That's.

832
00:38:42,435 --> 00:38:44,205
Appropriately sized bill.

833
00:38:44,955 --> 00:38:47,805
It's now what President Trump
promised during his campaign.

834
00:38:47,805 --> 00:38:51,075
He said 10 to $15 trillion of
additional deficit spending.

835
00:38:52,680 --> 00:38:55,560
It's two, two and a half right now.

836
00:38:55,770 --> 00:38:59,280
And it might actually not
even be stimulative if you

837
00:38:59,280 --> 00:39:00,150
account for the tar bie.

838
00:39:00,570 --> 00:39:00,750
Jacob Shapiro: Yeah.

839
00:39:00,750 --> 00:39:04,320
You, you've said I, I'm, I'm, uh, like
looking at the math, I'm less convinced

840
00:39:04,320 --> 00:39:07,290
of that more and more because it's
obvious that he's gonna increase spending

841
00:39:07,290 --> 00:39:08,580
here over the next couple of years.

842
00:39:08,580 --> 00:39:11,280
And then all the reductions happen
after he's gone from office and

843
00:39:11,280 --> 00:39:12,510
then somebody else is gonna come in.

844
00:39:12,510 --> 00:39:15,480
So I, I have the, this is probably the
first and only time in my life where

845
00:39:15,480 --> 00:39:17,280
I get why Elon Musk is frustrated.

846
00:39:17,310 --> 00:39:19,740
'cause Elon Musk was empowered
with the Department of Government

847
00:39:19,740 --> 00:39:22,830
efficiency and this huge task, and
he's gonna cut government spending.

848
00:39:22,920 --> 00:39:26,250
And he really like, I mean, he
took it, you know, his businesses,

849
00:39:26,250 --> 00:39:29,460
his reputation, like he, he took
a significant hit in order to

850
00:39:29,460 --> 00:39:30,630
push some of these things through.

851
00:39:30,630 --> 00:39:34,170
And then, you know, president Trump wakes
up one day and is like, by the way, here's

852
00:39:34,170 --> 00:39:35,700
another two to 3 trillion of spending.

853
00:39:35,700 --> 00:39:36,510
So, I know, I know.

854
00:39:36,510 --> 00:39:37,470
You're also thinking from a.

855
00:39:37,520 --> 00:39:40,580
From a market perspective that the market
is thinking that it was gonna be more,

856
00:39:40,880 --> 00:39:42,620
but I think there's some currency there.

857
00:39:42,620 --> 00:39:46,220
But I, I would push back against
you saying it's gonna be smaller.

858
00:39:46,220 --> 00:39:48,980
That this, like, this is going to
add significant amounts to a deficit

859
00:39:48,980 --> 00:39:50,210
that is already unsustainable.

860
00:39:50,210 --> 00:39:51,410
And I think Musk is saying not

861
00:39:51,410 --> 00:39:51,650
Marko Papic: really.

862
00:39:52,430 --> 00:39:57,500
Look, if, even if we take, uh, well,
Musk is obviously mathematically correct.

863
00:39:57,530 --> 00:39:57,770
Yeah.

864
00:39:58,310 --> 00:40:01,190
And so are you, like, you are
mathematically correct, they will increase

865
00:40:01,190 --> 00:40:05,150
the deficit, but if you look at the chart
of the deficit, what this bill does,

866
00:40:05,150 --> 00:40:09,950
it takes it from 6.5% to 7.5 and then
it stays there for the next 10 years.

867
00:40:11,460 --> 00:40:11,730
Jacob Shapiro: Yeah.

868
00:40:11,730 --> 00:40:14,460
But, but yeah, if you look at it
harmonized over 10 years, but if

869
00:40:14,460 --> 00:40:16,890
you look at the next three to four
years, we're boosting more than that.

870
00:40:16,890 --> 00:40:20,100
And then after Trump supposedly
leaves office, then it's

871
00:40:20,100 --> 00:40:21,150
gonna dip down below that.

872
00:40:21,150 --> 00:40:23,040
So for the next couple of
years, you're actually gonna get

873
00:40:23,220 --> 00:40:24,570
higher percentages than that.

874
00:40:24,570 --> 00:40:27,750
And then you're in this mythical
fairy world that the, the next

875
00:40:27,750 --> 00:40:31,320
president is gonna be like, yes, I
will sign up for enforcing the Trump.

876
00:40:31,320 --> 00:40:34,200
Like, you know, deficit reductions
on entitlements and things like that.

877
00:40:34,200 --> 00:40:34,505
Well, couple things.

878
00:40:35,430 --> 00:40:37,320
Marko Papic: We could have
a whole podcast on that.

879
00:40:37,440 --> 00:40:38,940
And I don't think that's a fair world.

880
00:40:39,060 --> 00:40:40,050
That's the world we're headed to.

881
00:40:41,010 --> 00:40:44,220
Like the political zeitgeist
of the country is moving

882
00:40:44,220 --> 00:40:45,660
away from wanton spending.

883
00:40:45,660 --> 00:40:49,530
But, but even in, in that interim,
if we focus, it's like it goes to

884
00:40:49,530 --> 00:40:51,300
like seven point a half, 8% debt.

885
00:40:51,330 --> 00:40:52,470
It doesn't blow up.

886
00:40:52,770 --> 00:40:57,690
And again, relative to what he promised,
he promised a lot of things Jacob,

887
00:40:57,690 --> 00:40:58,770
and he's not getting any of them.

888
00:40:58,775 --> 00:40:59,165
Mm-hmm.

889
00:40:59,670 --> 00:41:00,600
That's my point.

890
00:41:00,900 --> 00:41:06,120
You know, he promised 10 to 15 trillion
stuff just relative to his promises.

891
00:41:06,390 --> 00:41:07,650
This bill is may.

892
00:41:08,895 --> 00:41:11,685
And it includes cuts that
he did not campaign on.

893
00:41:11,835 --> 00:41:12,585
That's the point.

894
00:41:12,585 --> 00:41:16,634
So you've got three issues right
now where it's kind of like meh.

895
00:41:17,265 --> 00:41:20,654
One, you just lost the text.

896
00:41:20,654 --> 00:41:22,665
Putin of America, right?

897
00:41:22,694 --> 00:41:22,785
Mm-hmm.

898
00:41:23,025 --> 00:41:27,795
Gone, uh, is accusing you of
being a pedophile on On X Yeah.

899
00:41:27,975 --> 00:41:28,755
On the platform.

900
00:41:28,755 --> 00:41:30,464
He, he owns for what?

901
00:41:31,065 --> 00:41:33,045
Alright, so that's the first.

902
00:41:33,404 --> 00:41:37,515
The second is that all the promises
you made about how much taxes you're

903
00:41:37,515 --> 00:41:40,214
gonna cut, none of that is happening.

904
00:41:40,964 --> 00:41:45,345
You know, you went from 10 to $15
trillion worth of tax cuts to 600 billion.

905
00:41:45,615 --> 00:41:48,555
'cause I don't count
extending the 2017 tax cuts.

906
00:41:48,555 --> 00:41:50,505
That's not, that's not
cutting anyone's taxes.

907
00:41:50,654 --> 00:41:52,815
So no one's gonna have
their taxes cut effectively.

908
00:41:54,345 --> 00:41:57,015
Like you, you are not delivering
on your campaign promises.

909
00:41:57,015 --> 00:42:01,095
And in fact, you made fun of Nikki Haley
for wanting to cut entitlements and

910
00:42:01,095 --> 00:42:02,415
you're kind of cutting entitlements.

911
00:42:02,415 --> 00:42:05,985
You know, not as much as like
I. Mosque wants or conservatives

912
00:42:05,985 --> 00:42:07,185
want, but you're cutting.

913
00:42:07,245 --> 00:42:07,335
Mm-hmm.

914
00:42:07,845 --> 00:42:09,315
And then finally the trade deal.

915
00:42:09,585 --> 00:42:15,405
The trade deal where basically like
the us you know, he did the Liberation

916
00:42:15,405 --> 00:42:20,295
Day and a lot of his Bentonite fans
were like, yeah baby, we're gonna

917
00:42:20,295 --> 00:42:21,795
make bicycles in this country.

918
00:42:22,185 --> 00:42:26,775
You know, we're have John, we're
gonna have summer, and, and Oh,

919
00:42:26,775 --> 00:42:27,975
what's, what's a really good name?

920
00:42:28,125 --> 00:42:32,925
Summer And Finn are gonna start
working and picking strawberries.

921
00:42:32,925 --> 00:42:34,425
You know, like, that's not gonna happen.

922
00:42:34,815 --> 00:42:36,255
Those things are not gonna happen.

923
00:42:36,345 --> 00:42:39,165
America's still gonna trade because
the irony, and I said this on our

924
00:42:39,165 --> 00:42:42,884
last podcast, podcast, the irony of
all of this is that if you want to

925
00:42:42,884 --> 00:42:48,285
collect revenue from tariffs, you
kind of need trade because tariffs

926
00:42:48,615 --> 00:42:51,585
are attacks imposed on imports.

927
00:42:52,080 --> 00:42:55,110
So America has to continue to
trade with the rest of the world

928
00:42:55,380 --> 00:42:58,980
if we're going to actually generate
revenue to offset the deficits.

929
00:42:58,980 --> 00:43:02,190
So the point is that this
administration is starting to

930
00:43:02,190 --> 00:43:05,040
look less and less populist.

931
00:43:05,160 --> 00:43:07,980
And here's where I wanna say something.

932
00:43:07,980 --> 00:43:08,610
I know we are.

933
00:43:08,610 --> 00:43:09,240
How many minutes?

934
00:43:09,240 --> 00:43:10,050
We're 42 minutes.

935
00:43:10,050 --> 00:43:11,220
We're always at a 45.

936
00:43:11,550 --> 00:43:12,300
We're always 40.

937
00:43:12,300 --> 00:43:16,620
45 minute when I think the biggest
takeaway comes, I'm sorry, listeners.

938
00:43:16,620 --> 00:43:19,590
This is, you know, this is just how it is.

939
00:43:19,590 --> 00:43:20,895
This, this is the, if you're
an advertising, this is

940
00:43:21,060 --> 00:43:22,860
Jacob Shapiro: the smic
structure of our podcast.

941
00:43:22,980 --> 00:43:23,130
Ooh.

942
00:43:23,340 --> 00:43:23,730
That's a

943
00:43:23,790 --> 00:43:24,600
Marko Papic: It is, it is.

944
00:43:24,600 --> 00:43:26,730
And if you're, if you're at
a, if you're a, if you're an

945
00:43:26,730 --> 00:43:28,020
advertiser, it's a great thing.

946
00:43:28,050 --> 00:43:30,660
'cause everybody's gotta like
wait until the gym comes later.

947
00:43:30,660 --> 00:43:30,960
Right.

948
00:43:31,500 --> 00:43:33,000
So here's what I'm getting at.

949
00:43:34,860 --> 00:43:38,070
This is a playbook we've been watching
in Europe for the last 15 years.

950
00:43:38,130 --> 00:43:40,830
There is nothing new
to what Trump is doing.

951
00:43:41,040 --> 00:43:41,730
Nothing.

952
00:43:42,480 --> 00:43:48,055
So for the past 15 years in Europe,
anti-establishment populist, I don't like

953
00:43:48,330 --> 00:43:50,310
the term right wing, but fine, right-wing.

954
00:43:51,375 --> 00:43:54,650
Right wing, but it's not fair 'cause
it's, there's a ton of left Wink.

955
00:43:54,650 --> 00:43:54,890
Mm-hmm.

956
00:43:54,970 --> 00:43:56,895
Left wing populist parties in Europe.

957
00:43:58,305 --> 00:44:06,465
True Fins, Swedish Democrats,
Marine Lapin, Git Builders, uh,

958
00:44:06,495 --> 00:44:09,915
Podemos, Vox, five star movement.

959
00:44:10,365 --> 00:44:13,965
Fratelli, Talia, Leor, Lego, what?

960
00:44:14,025 --> 00:44:14,655
Whatever.

961
00:44:15,375 --> 00:44:16,485
There's a ton of them.

962
00:44:17,595 --> 00:44:21,525
They've all followed the following model.

963
00:44:22,605 --> 00:44:23,475
They start campaigning.

964
00:44:24,555 --> 00:44:28,695
European Commission is a bunch of
elitist, you know, bureaucrats.

965
00:44:29,745 --> 00:44:32,715
They're not gonna tell me how much
I'm gonna blow out the budget deficit.

966
00:44:33,915 --> 00:44:35,265
I'm gonna spend as much as I want.

967
00:44:37,605 --> 00:44:40,035
Structural reforms on retirement.

968
00:44:41,175 --> 00:44:42,225
That was evil.

969
00:44:42,795 --> 00:44:44,115
Increasing retirement age.

970
00:44:44,145 --> 00:44:47,505
We're gonna reverse all those policies
that the elitist imposed on you.

971
00:44:48,435 --> 00:44:49,035
Trade.

972
00:44:49,214 --> 00:44:50,325
Trade relationships.

973
00:44:50,595 --> 00:44:52,004
Less America, more Russia.

974
00:44:52,455 --> 00:44:52,754
Right?

975
00:44:52,754 --> 00:44:54,194
Lots of these guys love Russia.

976
00:44:54,225 --> 00:44:54,315
Mm-hmm.

977
00:44:55,035 --> 00:44:56,535
And then Euro area.

978
00:44:57,134 --> 00:44:58,935
We don't want the Euro,
we wanna leave the Euro.

979
00:44:59,415 --> 00:45:02,805
So those are kind of the
socioeconomic policies that a

980
00:45:02,805 --> 00:45:04,335
lot of these populists walk into.

981
00:45:04,904 --> 00:45:09,705
And then they come to power, or they
become part of a governing coalition.

982
00:45:10,575 --> 00:45:15,975
And the bond market riots yields go
up, borrowing costs go up, equities

983
00:45:15,975 --> 00:45:18,045
go down, the economy slows down.

984
00:45:18,225 --> 00:45:20,535
People start worrying about
their retirement savings.

985
00:45:20,535 --> 00:45:21,884
They start worrying about their jobs.

986
00:45:21,884 --> 00:45:27,464
And suddenly, suddenly all these
populists, anti-establishment,

987
00:45:27,464 --> 00:45:34,725
far left trotskyite far right, neo
fascists suddenly enjoy the soft

988
00:45:34,725 --> 00:45:40,395
leather, hand stitched leather in
their government issued a eight saloon.

989
00:45:41,535 --> 00:45:43,754
Suddenly they like the
way that their suit.

990
00:45:44,145 --> 00:45:49,095
Crunches with that smooth
journeying engineering, the soft

991
00:45:49,095 --> 00:45:51,375
closing of the door sounds nice.

992
00:45:51,375 --> 00:45:52,154
They start liking it.

993
00:45:52,154 --> 00:45:54,225
They like the smell of power.

994
00:45:55,004 --> 00:45:59,384
They like being in charge and they
don't want the society to collapse

995
00:45:59,654 --> 00:46:03,285
so that they can have their, you
know, like anti-establishment

996
00:46:03,285 --> 00:46:08,174
revolt, and then they start migrating
to the middle on every issue.

997
00:46:08,174 --> 00:46:12,855
That actually matters to the pocketbooks
of the people who they now rule or are

998
00:46:12,855 --> 00:46:19,725
part of a coalition to rule, except
on one issue, which is immigration.

999
00:46:22,065 --> 00:46:22,455
Boom.

1000
00:46:23,355 --> 00:46:28,274
Instead, not only do they keep
their policy, they tripled down

1001
00:46:28,484 --> 00:46:30,015
on anti-immigrant policies.

1002
00:46:30,015 --> 00:46:30,285
Why?

1003
00:46:30,524 --> 00:46:31,785
Because immigrants don't vote.

1004
00:46:32,535 --> 00:46:33,045
You know what I mean?

1005
00:46:33,404 --> 00:46:34,125
They don't vote.

1006
00:46:35,279 --> 00:46:40,380
And some asylum policies have gone
outta whack across the western world.

1007
00:46:40,380 --> 00:46:42,779
Like facts, you know, like,
what are we supposed to do here?

1008
00:46:42,779 --> 00:46:43,680
This is a fact.

1009
00:46:44,520 --> 00:46:46,470
Um, and so it's an easy win.

1010
00:46:46,830 --> 00:46:53,970
So when you lose your credentials as a
populist, as a man or woman of the people,

1011
00:46:54,690 --> 00:46:59,250
when you lose those credentials on every
single issue, how do you maintain them?

1012
00:46:59,640 --> 00:47:03,000
Well, you maintain them by tripling
down on anti-immigrant policies.

1013
00:47:03,000 --> 00:47:04,320
That's the way to do it.

1014
00:47:04,620 --> 00:47:09,840
For example, Italy just had a referendum
on citizenship and the Prime Minister

1015
00:47:09,990 --> 00:47:14,820
Georgia Maloney, effectively didn't
want to say how she was gonna vote.

1016
00:47:14,820 --> 00:47:15,960
She didn't even wanna vote.

1017
00:47:15,960 --> 00:47:19,500
She showed up at the voting
booth and did not cast a vote.

1018
00:47:20,100 --> 00:47:22,560
And by the way, this was not
something to give everyone

1019
00:47:22,560 --> 00:47:23,759
in Italy, like a citizenship.

1020
00:47:23,759 --> 00:47:27,960
It was just like reducing the number
of years from 10 to five, like very

1021
00:47:27,960 --> 00:47:31,259
modest changes on citizenship in Italy.

1022
00:47:31,860 --> 00:47:33,509
And you know, like the.

1023
00:47:33,990 --> 00:47:36,210
By the way, this is not about
illegal immigration, right?

1024
00:47:36,210 --> 00:47:39,720
These are people in Italy who
are, who are like, who working

1025
00:47:39,750 --> 00:47:42,029
and speak Italian fluently.

1026
00:47:42,060 --> 00:47:47,009
And, uh, and, and she was still
opposed to that referendum, but

1027
00:47:47,220 --> 00:47:51,060
George Maloney is not, I'm sorry
for Trump fans who might like her.

1028
00:47:51,720 --> 00:47:53,759
She's a centrist as it gets, man.

1029
00:47:53,759 --> 00:47:58,500
Like she's maybe the most competent
policymaker in the entire western

1030
00:47:58,500 --> 00:48:04,080
world in terms of like navigating the
markets and being fiscally responsible.

1031
00:48:04,080 --> 00:48:08,070
And you know, like George Meloy, I
mean, she's basically a member of

1032
00:48:08,070 --> 00:48:09,750
a neofascist party for tele deity.

1033
00:48:09,750 --> 00:48:10,770
No, it doesn't matter.

1034
00:48:10,800 --> 00:48:14,520
She has become completely
establishment, completely 180 degree

1035
00:48:14,520 --> 00:48:18,150
turn for that party even on Ukraine.

1036
00:48:18,690 --> 00:48:19,710
Even on foreign policy.

1037
00:48:19,710 --> 00:48:20,970
Well, she, she's also,

1038
00:48:20,970 --> 00:48:24,480
Jacob Shapiro: she's an interesting, she's
more interesting than most of them because

1039
00:48:24,480 --> 00:48:26,460
she's always been anti anti-Russia.

1040
00:48:26,550 --> 00:48:29,580
Like she has taken, she's like a
weird mix of all these different

1041
00:48:29,580 --> 00:48:31,680
things, and she's always had more of
a head on her shoulders, which, you

1042
00:48:31,680 --> 00:48:35,310
know, you said Fratelli Italia, like
she's the sister in Fratelli Italia.

1043
00:48:35,310 --> 00:48:38,040
Like, she's the one who actually,
like, she, she's always been a really,

1044
00:48:38,040 --> 00:48:41,730
really compelling figure because she
actually, I think, understand she is,

1045
00:48:41,735 --> 00:48:44,520
I, I think most of the people you're
talking about, it's instinctual.

1046
00:48:44,550 --> 00:48:47,040
They sort of move that direction because
they had, they have no other choice.

1047
00:48:47,040 --> 00:48:49,740
Whereas my impression of Maloney
is she is one of the few self-aware

1048
00:48:49,740 --> 00:48:51,090
politicians who was like, no, no, no, no.

1049
00:48:51,090 --> 00:48:54,210
I, I know where I want to go and I
know how I want to get from point A

1050
00:48:54,210 --> 00:48:57,540
to point B, and I know which levers I
have to pull and whose ass I have to

1051
00:48:57,540 --> 00:49:00,360
kiss and where I have to be seen and
the right balance of all these things.

1052
00:49:00,360 --> 00:49:00,375
No, that's fair.

1053
00:49:00,405 --> 00:49:02,820
Like she's a, she, she's a,
a head the cream of the crop.

1054
00:49:04,110 --> 00:49:07,950
Marko Papic: But, but, and at the same
time on immigration variant immigrant.

1055
00:49:07,980 --> 00:49:08,310
Yeah.

1056
00:49:08,310 --> 00:49:08,311
Yeah.

1057
00:49:08,370 --> 00:49:10,260
And very successful in pursuing that.

1058
00:49:10,350 --> 00:49:11,910
So the, so I agree with you.

1059
00:49:11,910 --> 00:49:15,330
I, I, I think what we should do, by
the way, for one of our next segments

1060
00:49:15,360 --> 00:49:16,830
is we should rank policy makers.

1061
00:49:16,860 --> 00:49:17,100
Yes.

1062
00:49:17,100 --> 00:49:17,400
Jacob Shapiro: We should.

1063
00:49:17,730 --> 00:49:17,910
Yeah.

1064
00:49:18,689 --> 00:49:19,379
Marko Papic: Trade value.

1065
00:49:19,379 --> 00:49:20,129
Yeah, trade value.

1066
00:49:20,475 --> 00:49:21,930
Oh, trade value.

1067
00:49:22,350 --> 00:49:22,620
Right.

1068
00:49:22,620 --> 00:49:23,100
Jacob Shapiro: I can't wait.

1069
00:49:23,100 --> 00:49:23,310
If you

1070
00:49:23,310 --> 00:49:26,160
Marko Papic: could trade your, your
president for, for another, oh God.

1071
00:49:26,160 --> 00:49:26,730
Jacob Shapiro: That's so good.

1072
00:49:26,850 --> 00:49:27,569
Let, let's do that.

1073
00:49:27,569 --> 00:49:27,959
We got it.

1074
00:49:28,049 --> 00:49:29,910
Marko Papic: I mean, I'm taking,
I'm gonna, I'm gonna announce

1075
00:49:29,910 --> 00:49:30,990
my first pick right now.

1076
00:49:30,990 --> 00:49:31,649
Georgia Maloney.

1077
00:49:31,649 --> 00:49:36,959
I think she is absolutely crushing it
on every, like the way she plays Trump.

1078
00:49:36,959 --> 00:49:38,640
I mean, she's just like so good.

1079
00:49:38,730 --> 00:49:39,689
She's so good.

1080
00:49:40,500 --> 00:49:43,350
Now the point still stands though.

1081
00:49:43,350 --> 00:49:45,720
We've seen this for 15 years in Europe.

1082
00:49:45,720 --> 00:49:50,009
Like I work with investors and clients
in finance and they come to me and

1083
00:49:50,009 --> 00:49:53,730
for 15 years I've had to answer this
stupid question, will Europe collapse?

1084
00:49:53,730 --> 00:49:54,959
No, it won't.

1085
00:49:55,080 --> 00:49:56,040
It will not collapse.

1086
00:49:56,189 --> 00:49:57,870
They're all faux populists.

1087
00:49:58,165 --> 00:49:58,455
Faux.

1088
00:49:58,915 --> 00:49:59,924
They're faking it.

1089
00:50:00,105 --> 00:50:04,680
Except alternative for deland has
not actually changed its policies

1090
00:50:04,680 --> 00:50:07,439
on a lot of this stuff, but a lot
of these other parties have, and I

1091
00:50:07,439 --> 00:50:09,120
think that we might be witnessing it.

1092
00:50:09,120 --> 00:50:12,299
This is how the protests
in LA might be profound.

1093
00:50:12,299 --> 00:50:14,520
Jacob, we might be witnessing actually.

1094
00:50:16,830 --> 00:50:18,450
A shift in the Trump administration.

1095
00:50:18,750 --> 00:50:22,560
This may allow, so you are making
fun of the Trump administration when

1096
00:50:22,560 --> 00:50:25,770
you say like, Hey, all this chaos
is going on and they're sending the

1097
00:50:25,770 --> 00:50:33,120
national guards to la What I, what I
see it as almost as a positive because

1098
00:50:33,120 --> 00:50:35,970
it allows the big man to be big.

1099
00:50:36,900 --> 00:50:42,450
It allows the populist anti-establishment,
you know, white House to pretend there's

1100
00:50:42,450 --> 00:50:46,680
still populist and anti-establishment,
but actually they start cutting deals.

1101
00:50:46,799 --> 00:50:46,920
Yep.

1102
00:50:47,190 --> 00:50:49,950
That a lot of liberals are gonna
make fun President Trump for.

1103
00:50:50,520 --> 00:50:53,430
But at the end of the day, like
deals are fine, deals are good.

1104
00:50:53,430 --> 00:50:53,610
Yeah.

1105
00:50:53,610 --> 00:50:56,580
He promised the moon, he's gonna
get us to the roof of the house.

1106
00:50:56,610 --> 00:50:57,450
Who cares?

1107
00:50:57,480 --> 00:51:01,020
At the end of the day, he might be
pivoting towards much more centrism.

1108
00:51:01,635 --> 00:51:03,705
Than, uh, that people think,
tell me why I'm wrong.

1109
00:51:04,125 --> 00:51:05,055
No, take the other side.

1110
00:51:05,055 --> 00:51:07,125
Jacob Shapiro: Well, I'm not gonna take
completely the other side, but I, I have

1111
00:51:07,275 --> 00:51:08,535
sort of three things to throw in there.

1112
00:51:08,535 --> 00:51:11,295
The first is just an aside, you're
right about a FD but what's been

1113
00:51:11,295 --> 00:51:15,195
interesting about the German context
is that the C-D-U-C-S-U basically took,

1114
00:51:15,255 --> 00:51:18,285
like, took that part of the a FD the
part that would move to the center

1115
00:51:18,285 --> 00:51:20,625
and was just like, okay, we're gonna
take that for ourselves now so you

1116
00:51:20,625 --> 00:51:21,945
can sit out there with the crazy shit.

1117
00:51:21,945 --> 00:51:26,115
And now this E-D-U-C-S-U has rebranded,
sort of more like, has taken those things.

1118
00:51:26,115 --> 00:51:29,385
So it's like an interesting centrist party
that is, and, and we'll see if it works.

1119
00:51:29,655 --> 00:51:31,725
The other thing on the deals is,
and this is, you know, one of those

1120
00:51:31,725 --> 00:51:35,535
areas where things make sense up to
a point and then it becomes farcical

1121
00:51:35,535 --> 00:51:38,715
again because, you know, there are
these US China trade talks coming.

1122
00:51:38,715 --> 00:51:41,085
You and I have both been on this,
that this is gonna be something that

1123
00:51:41,085 --> 00:51:42,615
gets done sooner rather than later.

1124
00:51:42,825 --> 00:51:46,815
Meanwhile, the US Japan trade talks
continue to be absolutely abysmal.

1125
00:51:46,995 --> 00:51:49,515
They just had their fifth round
and the Japanese negotiator

1126
00:51:49,515 --> 00:51:50,685
came out and said, we've agreed.

1127
00:51:50,805 --> 00:51:52,065
Uh, let's see if I have the quote.

1128
00:51:52,095 --> 00:51:55,035
Um, uh, 'cause I want to get
him exactly right because it

1129
00:51:55,035 --> 00:51:56,295
was such an amazing quote.

1130
00:51:56,685 --> 00:52:00,465
Um, we have not found
any point of agreement.

1131
00:52:01,020 --> 00:52:01,620
On anything.

1132
00:52:01,650 --> 00:52:03,600
They're not agreeing
on absolutely anything.

1133
00:52:03,600 --> 00:52:05,160
And that's like your closest ally there.

1134
00:52:05,160 --> 00:52:07,770
So at the same, and you know, there
was also that reporting about how they

1135
00:52:07,770 --> 00:52:12,360
literally paused a trade negotiation
because Lutnick and Cent, and I forget

1136
00:52:12,360 --> 00:52:14,460
who the third one was in the room,
but somebody else was in the room too,

1137
00:52:14,460 --> 00:52:17,700
and they had to pause because none,
uh, Jameson Greer, the US uh, trade

1138
00:52:17,700 --> 00:52:20,100
representative, they were all in the
room negotiating with the Japanese

1139
00:52:20,100 --> 00:52:21,420
and they had different positions.

1140
00:52:21,420 --> 00:52:23,970
So they had to tell the Japanese to
stop for a second so the three of

1141
00:52:23,970 --> 00:52:26,610
them could go like, figure out what
they were actually talking about.

1142
00:52:26,880 --> 00:52:28,410
Like, there's just kind
of an insanity there.

1143
00:52:28,740 --> 00:52:32,190
But I, I want to go back to the, the point
about immigration, and this is actually on

1144
00:52:32,190 --> 00:52:33,600
my mind 'cause we haven't said this yet.

1145
00:52:33,600 --> 00:52:35,250
The Willamette River is behind me.

1146
00:52:35,250 --> 00:52:36,060
I'm in Portland.

1147
00:52:36,060 --> 00:52:39,120
I'm speaking at a forestry event,
timber event here in Portland,

1148
00:52:39,150 --> 00:52:40,560
um, in just a couple of hours.

1149
00:52:40,980 --> 00:52:46,320
Um, and as you might imagine, um, this
is a big issue for them, not because

1150
00:52:46,320 --> 00:52:49,290
immigrants are cutting down trees or
anything like that, but because the

1151
00:52:49,290 --> 00:52:52,440
timber industry is thinking about
real estate and home construction

1152
00:52:52,440 --> 00:52:54,780
over a 15, 20 year time horizon.

1153
00:52:55,200 --> 00:52:57,630
And it's been a really
good last 15, 20 years.

1154
00:52:58,230 --> 00:53:01,830
In part because in the early 1990s,
you had a lot of immigrants come to

1155
00:53:01,830 --> 00:53:05,370
the United States and even the illegal
ones, eventually they stay here and

1156
00:53:05,370 --> 00:53:07,080
eventually they wanna live in houses.

1157
00:53:07,260 --> 00:53:11,460
And so if you have population growth,
which is us, which for, if you're pro

1158
00:53:11,460 --> 00:53:14,850
these sort of cyclical things, you want to
have lots of natural births, but you also

1159
00:53:14,850 --> 00:53:16,380
want to have lot, lots of immigration.

1160
00:53:16,680 --> 00:53:20,610
So if you look at the early 1990s,
mid 1990s, you could say, oh, well,

1161
00:53:21,090 --> 00:53:23,490
natural births were falling a little
bit, but still relatively high.

1162
00:53:23,490 --> 00:53:25,740
And you had all these immigrants that
were coming to the United States.

1163
00:53:25,740 --> 00:53:28,950
So you get this period where
there's gonna be a lot of demand for

1164
00:53:28,950 --> 00:53:30,660
lumber over the next 15, 20 years.

1165
00:53:30,870 --> 00:53:33,600
Now I'm supposed to go to this audience
and tell them, well, so they want to

1166
00:53:33,600 --> 00:53:36,420
know over the next 15, 20 years, what
are you thinking about these things?

1167
00:53:36,780 --> 00:53:39,960
And most of, not all of 'em, I'm gonna
make some contrarian arguments to them

1168
00:53:39,960 --> 00:53:41,160
about why they should be optimistic.

1169
00:53:41,400 --> 00:53:42,780
But most of the data.

1170
00:53:43,275 --> 00:53:43,875
Sucks.

1171
00:53:43,995 --> 00:53:48,435
And this data that really sucks is US
demographics because US births have

1172
00:53:48,435 --> 00:53:52,125
fallen off a cliff and we actually had
a really high number of international

1173
00:53:52,125 --> 00:53:55,125
arrivals last year, but it's making
up for a couple years of none.

1174
00:53:55,125 --> 00:53:58,395
And you can imagine after the travel
ban and President Trump tripling

1175
00:53:58,395 --> 00:54:01,395
down in immigration that these
things are gonna go away in general.

1176
00:54:01,395 --> 00:54:05,565
So I think it's easier for
the Europeans to to crunch on.

1177
00:54:06,135 --> 00:54:07,335
Immigration in part.

1178
00:54:07,335 --> 00:54:09,855
'cause you know, they have, it's
the gift that keeps on giving

1179
00:54:09,855 --> 00:54:12,915
Angela Merkel lecturing the rest
of Europe on being moral because

1180
00:54:12,915 --> 00:54:14,145
they aren't taking their migrants.

1181
00:54:14,145 --> 00:54:15,795
And also the nature of those migrants.

1182
00:54:15,855 --> 00:54:19,635
Like, yes, some of them are just hard
workers, but Europe's a lot more exposed

1183
00:54:19,635 --> 00:54:23,295
to jihadists that are coming up through
the Middle East or things like that.

1184
00:54:23,295 --> 00:54:26,415
Or folks that are, you know, not bringing
tangible skills but are literally

1185
00:54:26,415 --> 00:54:27,555
just looking for anywhere to go.

1186
00:54:27,555 --> 00:54:28,395
Whereas the US.

1187
00:54:28,825 --> 00:54:31,495
Sorry to be crude about it is
getting a higher class of migrant

1188
00:54:31,855 --> 00:54:32,725
that is coming to the border.

1189
00:54:32,725 --> 00:54:36,145
You're getting in, you know, countries
in South America, whether it's Ecuador

1190
00:54:36,145 --> 00:54:40,525
or Columbia or Venezuela, like people
who are skilled and educated and very

1191
00:54:40,525 --> 00:54:44,215
good at what they do and escaping
regimes that have become authoritarian

1192
00:54:44,215 --> 00:54:45,745
or they've lost their political position.

1193
00:54:45,745 --> 00:54:48,685
And so they're coming to the United
States and they can do like everything

1194
00:54:48,685 --> 00:54:51,805
from your menial labor all the way
up into, into some of these things.

1195
00:54:51,895 --> 00:54:55,405
And I guess the point I'm just
making is like, it seems to me that

1196
00:54:55,405 --> 00:54:58,585
President Trump, it's, even with
the deals that he's making, it's not

1197
00:54:58,585 --> 00:55:00,235
gonna look good for the US economy.

1198
00:55:00,295 --> 00:55:03,325
And if you're gonna triple down on
immigration too, which has always been

1199
00:55:03,325 --> 00:55:07,525
a US superpower, our ability to attract
the best, our ability to integrate them.

1200
00:55:07,885 --> 00:55:11,785
Um, and you're going to sort of
knock that out too, like then all

1201
00:55:11,785 --> 00:55:15,565
of the, the growth figures over the
next 2, 3, 4 years and even longer.

1202
00:55:15,825 --> 00:55:16,694
Look really bad.

1203
00:55:16,754 --> 00:55:17,895
So I think that's the pushback.

1204
00:55:17,895 --> 00:55:21,044
The pushback is not that the playbook is
not gonna go the way that you think it is.

1205
00:55:21,044 --> 00:55:22,185
I think that's exactly right.

1206
00:55:22,245 --> 00:55:25,335
And I think that President Trump pulled
a rabbit out of his hat because he gets

1207
00:55:25,335 --> 00:55:28,154
to be the law and order president now,
and he is gonna go after immigration,

1208
00:55:28,154 --> 00:55:29,685
and he is got lots of support for that.

1209
00:55:29,984 --> 00:55:34,904
But in doing that, combined with all the
other things that he's done, like, it just

1210
00:55:34,904 --> 00:55:39,464
seems to me that like the US macro picture
goes from worse to worse every single day.

1211
00:55:39,495 --> 00:55:42,105
Because if you're not gonna fix this
thing, and like you're gonna have interest

1212
00:55:42,105 --> 00:55:46,544
rates going up and the dollar is gonna
continue to decline and like, like you

1213
00:55:46,544 --> 00:55:49,424
just put the picture, the macro picture
together, it starts to look very grim.

1214
00:55:50,115 --> 00:55:51,044
So I guess that's the pushback.

1215
00:55:52,634 --> 00:55:52,785
Marko Papic: Yeah.

1216
00:55:52,785 --> 00:55:57,194
I mean, uh, I mean, look, that
that might be the case if President

1217
00:55:57,194 --> 00:55:58,694
Harris was in the White House too.

1218
00:56:00,645 --> 00:56:03,435
Jacob Shapiro: Not on, I think that
not, not necessarily on migration.

1219
00:56:04,935 --> 00:56:05,205
Marko Papic: Yeah.

1220
00:56:05,205 --> 00:56:07,154
Uh, I mean the problem.

1221
00:56:08,040 --> 00:56:08,819
Migration.

1222
00:56:08,879 --> 00:56:10,080
Is that and not

1223
00:56:10,080 --> 00:56:10,200
Jacob Shapiro: on

1224
00:56:10,200 --> 00:56:10,470
Marko Papic: trade?

1225
00:56:10,470 --> 00:56:10,919
Well, I don't know.

1226
00:56:10,919 --> 00:56:12,210
Jacob Shapiro: Not on
trade and not on migration.

1227
00:56:12,210 --> 00:56:14,250
I not, I'm not saying President
Harris would've been great.

1228
00:56:14,250 --> 00:56:16,109
I'm sure she would've had
her fair share of mistakes.

1229
00:56:16,109 --> 00:56:18,210
They would've been entirely
her own, but they wouldn't have

1230
00:56:18,210 --> 00:56:19,589
been this cocktail of mistakes.

1231
00:56:20,970 --> 00:56:21,180
Marko Papic: Yeah.

1232
00:56:21,180 --> 00:56:22,319
So, so I agree with that.

1233
00:56:22,319 --> 00:56:26,069
It's just that like, I think you're
speaking of secular issues that, um,

1234
00:56:26,370 --> 00:56:30,330
like, you know, I think there's a lot
of secular problems that the US has.

1235
00:56:30,870 --> 00:56:35,100
Uh, the number one being that the deficit
is too high, that the public sector is

1236
00:56:35,100 --> 00:56:36,870
effectively crowding out the private.

1237
00:56:37,589 --> 00:56:41,640
And I think that that issue,
uh, is truly bipartisan.

1238
00:56:41,640 --> 00:56:41,730
Mm-hmm.

1239
00:56:42,060 --> 00:56:46,379
If you are searching for a bipartisan,
for a hope for bipartisanship,

1240
00:56:46,439 --> 00:56:48,270
it's in the fiscal deficit.

1241
00:56:48,270 --> 00:56:49,290
Like that's where it happened.

1242
00:56:49,680 --> 00:56:54,660
Um, but yes, no, I, um, what I would
say is just that I think that when I

1243
00:56:54,660 --> 00:56:59,009
say that President Trump can move to
the center and kind of shove under the

1244
00:56:59,009 --> 00:57:05,009
carpet some of his, uh, populism and
anti-establishment rhetoric and trade, um.

1245
00:57:05,655 --> 00:57:08,445
I think that this issue
will allow him to do that.

1246
00:57:08,445 --> 00:57:08,865
That's it.

1247
00:57:08,865 --> 00:57:15,645
Now, it, that pivot doesn't mean that
you erase the scars that you produced

1248
00:57:15,795 --> 00:57:19,275
through the first three months of
your presidency or six months now.

1249
00:57:19,335 --> 00:57:21,645
Um, so yeah, I mean, for sure.

1250
00:57:21,675 --> 00:57:22,605
Yeah, that's, and remember

1251
00:57:22,605 --> 00:57:25,575
Jacob Shapiro: like he did a phase
one US China trade deal in his first

1252
00:57:25,575 --> 00:57:29,955
administration and the Chinese lived up
to roughly, I have the number right here.

1253
00:57:30,674 --> 00:57:32,355
58% of their commitment.

1254
00:57:32,475 --> 00:57:35,535
Ak it wasn't a deal, to your
point, it was a TV deal.

1255
00:57:35,535 --> 00:57:38,654
It's, we sign a deal one day and we
say there's gonna be X amount of trade

1256
00:57:38,654 --> 00:57:41,384
and then there's not gonna be, and if
you look at how China's doing things

1257
00:57:41,384 --> 00:57:44,355
like, I don't think they're gonna like
actually follow, they'll follow through

1258
00:57:44,355 --> 00:57:46,964
on some things, but they're gonna
vertically integrate and create domestic

1259
00:57:46,964 --> 00:57:48,495
champions and have self-sufficiency.

1260
00:57:48,525 --> 00:57:52,214
The other thing, listen, and I know
you want to push back, but, um, Robin

1261
00:57:52,214 --> 00:57:53,685
Brooks had a really good, he, he, he.

1262
00:57:54,320 --> 00:57:57,350
He had some really good data that
he put out just this week where

1263
00:57:57,350 --> 00:57:59,780
he looked at US China trade, and
it's down, if you look over the

1264
00:57:59,780 --> 00:58:00,980
first like six months of the year.

1265
00:58:01,130 --> 00:58:04,160
But you know where trade is up, like
Chinese exports are up, they're up

1266
00:58:04,160 --> 00:58:08,360
to Singapore, they're up to Thailand,
to Thailand, they're up on Vietnam.

1267
00:58:08,540 --> 00:58:10,520
Like, like trade is like water.

1268
00:58:10,520 --> 00:58:12,770
So like Chinese goods are
actually probably still gonna

1269
00:58:12,770 --> 00:58:13,700
get to the United States.

1270
00:58:13,700 --> 00:58:15,380
They're just gonna come through
trans shipments markets.

1271
00:58:15,380 --> 00:58:18,800
And unless you erect full bare,
like the 70 foot tariff wall on

1272
00:58:18,800 --> 00:58:21,200
all sides of the United States,
like the stuff is gonna get in.

1273
00:58:21,200 --> 00:58:24,740
So like, even there it's like, uh,
but my point is just that, yeah, those

1274
00:58:24,740 --> 00:58:27,980
scars, I think like China's gonna say
one thing and then in the meantime it's

1275
00:58:27,980 --> 00:58:30,890
gonna be like, oh, and we're creating
our own semiconductor industry and

1276
00:58:30,920 --> 00:58:32,660
we're creating our own biotech industry.

1277
00:58:32,660 --> 00:58:35,870
And eventually once we have these
things and we don't need you anymore,

1278
00:58:35,900 --> 00:58:38,990
like you will encounter our Great
wall and, and you'll enjoy it.

1279
00:58:40,730 --> 00:58:41,540
Marko Papic: Well, so, okay.

1280
00:58:41,660 --> 00:58:42,500
Couple of things on that.

1281
00:58:43,610 --> 00:58:48,200
I think that phase one deal was called
phase one because it was phase one

1282
00:58:49,355 --> 00:58:52,670
and I think that it could have been
a great deal, but COVID happened.

1283
00:58:52,675 --> 00:58:53,690
Yes, COVID and, uh, I mean.

1284
00:58:54,780 --> 00:58:58,020
And I know I'm parroting what President
Trump says, but I'm parroting it

1285
00:58:58,020 --> 00:59:00,270
because it is correct objectively.

1286
00:59:01,140 --> 00:59:07,290
And then Joe Biden took over and
did not start any negotiations

1287
00:59:07,290 --> 00:59:08,670
with China over any trade.

1288
00:59:08,670 --> 00:59:10,260
In fact, he just kept putting tariffs.

1289
00:59:10,440 --> 00:59:15,600
So why would it, it's just not fair to
President Trump and Robert Lighthizer.

1290
00:59:15,900 --> 00:59:18,060
What happened with that deal?

1291
00:59:18,060 --> 00:59:19,530
I mean, like they negotiated a deal.

1292
00:59:20,040 --> 00:59:24,510
China's not gonna keep buying soybeans and
natural gas in the middle of a pandemic.

1293
00:59:25,320 --> 00:59:27,510
And then when the pandemic ends,
there's a different president in

1294
00:59:27,510 --> 00:59:30,990
the White House who doesn't engage
them in any conversations at all.

1295
00:59:30,990 --> 00:59:33,060
So why would they abide
by the phase one deal?

1296
00:59:33,390 --> 00:59:37,860
And this is somehow, like, this is
somehow put on President Trump's

1297
00:59:38,370 --> 00:59:40,200
balance sheet as his error.

1298
00:59:40,350 --> 00:59:43,260
But why It was the Joe
Biden pre uh, presidency.

1299
00:59:43,680 --> 00:59:48,029
That refused to engage the
Chinese with any negotiations.

1300
00:59:48,029 --> 00:59:48,480
Why?

1301
00:59:48,839 --> 00:59:52,049
Because they were afraid that the
Chinese would say yes, this is

1302
00:59:52,049 --> 00:59:53,880
the irony of the Democratic party.

1303
00:59:53,880 --> 00:59:55,529
They cannot make a deal with China.

1304
00:59:55,560 --> 00:59:59,220
'cause if they do, any deal they
make, even if it's incredibly good

1305
00:59:59,220 --> 01:00:03,930
for America, will be seen negatively
domestically because they will be seen

1306
01:00:03,930 --> 01:00:07,799
as, you know, defeatists and you know,
basically not good enough of a deal.

1307
01:00:08,339 --> 01:00:11,670
So what I'm getting at is that it was
very difficult for the Chinese to abide by

1308
01:00:11,670 --> 01:00:15,120
the phase one deal because they expected
there to be phase two, phase three.

1309
01:00:15,210 --> 01:00:19,049
And Joe Biden administration, they came in
and they were like, nah, look, we can't,

1310
01:00:19,080 --> 01:00:20,700
domestically, we can't deal with you.

1311
01:00:20,700 --> 01:00:25,560
So I think it's an unfair,
um, you know, it's an unfair

1312
01:00:25,560 --> 01:00:27,630
argument that phase one sucks.

1313
01:00:27,630 --> 01:00:31,500
And I hear this a lot, I hear this a
lot from both conservatives who say that

1314
01:00:31,500 --> 01:00:34,799
you cannot make a deal with China, but
you also hear it a lot with liberals who

1315
01:00:34,799 --> 01:00:38,640
both say that you cannot make a deal with
China and that President Trump is weak.

1316
01:00:38,910 --> 01:00:42,960
The second thing I would say is
that I think that this is where.

1317
01:00:43,305 --> 01:00:46,245
The Mennonites are going
to eventually self emulate.

1318
01:00:47,325 --> 01:00:51,975
This is where, no, this is where
eventually the reality of the planet

1319
01:00:51,975 --> 01:00:55,725
we live on is that you will absolutely
have to continue to trade with China.

1320
01:00:57,464 --> 01:01:00,944
Like that's the reality of our
debate that we had last time.

1321
01:01:01,395 --> 01:01:05,475
Like, you cannot stop trading with
China because no matter what their

1322
01:01:05,475 --> 01:01:09,944
intentions are, because if you do, your
own allies will come in and undercut you.

1323
01:01:10,305 --> 01:01:14,444
Like France is not gonna stop selling
Airbus airplanes if you say China's evil.

1324
01:01:14,444 --> 01:01:15,944
And I don't wanna sell Boeing airplanes.

1325
01:01:15,944 --> 01:01:18,404
So America has to trade with China.

1326
01:01:18,464 --> 01:01:21,615
It has to, the question is,
how is it going to do that?

1327
01:01:21,615 --> 01:01:25,845
And Donald Trump is quite frankly,
the only hope that the US has to

1328
01:01:25,845 --> 01:01:31,395
negotiate with China because the rest
of the Republican party is so full

1329
01:01:31,395 --> 01:01:38,565
of, uh, like national security hawks,
but at an idiotic level, right, that

1330
01:01:38,565 --> 01:01:40,065
don't wanna engage with China at all.

1331
01:01:40,065 --> 01:01:42,674
So people who think that
buying a bicycle from China.

1332
01:01:43,920 --> 01:01:45,390
Is a national security threat.

1333
01:01:46,440 --> 01:01:46,710
Okay.

1334
01:01:46,710 --> 01:01:47,970
So that's what I'm talking about.

1335
01:01:48,089 --> 01:01:48,180
Mm-hmm.

1336
01:01:48,420 --> 01:01:51,089
And that the Democrats, the
Democrats who understand the

1337
01:01:51,089 --> 01:01:54,930
mathematics, their problem is that
they're politically extremely weak.

1338
01:01:54,930 --> 01:01:58,350
So they can't engage China in
meaningful trade talks because they're

1339
01:01:58,350 --> 01:02:01,740
afraid of how to sell the deal they
might make with China domestically.

1340
01:02:01,740 --> 01:02:05,640
So it's funny, but Donald Trump
is actually the only human

1341
01:02:05,640 --> 01:02:08,880
being on the planet that can
actually make a deal with China.

1342
01:02:08,880 --> 01:02:10,290
That's not halfway bad.

1343
01:02:10,920 --> 01:02:14,370
And the reason I see that is that
it's perfectly fine for America

1344
01:02:14,370 --> 01:02:15,810
to keep buying Chinese goods.

1345
01:02:15,810 --> 01:02:18,990
And yeah, it's perfectly fine if those
goods are, then you know that revenue

1346
01:02:18,990 --> 01:02:23,069
is taxed by the Chinese Communist
Party and they build hypersonic cruise.

1347
01:02:23,069 --> 01:02:24,270
Miss sells with that revenue.

1348
01:02:24,299 --> 01:02:25,290
That's how the world works.

1349
01:02:25,890 --> 01:02:32,190
As long as America gets a fair deal where
the Chinese are also buying US goods, and

1350
01:02:32,190 --> 01:02:34,770
that's what the Lighthizer approach was.

1351
01:02:34,770 --> 01:02:37,049
Phase one was like, Hey,
buy some of our commodities.

1352
01:02:37,109 --> 01:02:39,810
I called it at the time,
pejoratively a medieval trade

1353
01:02:39,810 --> 01:02:40,049
Jacob Shapiro: deal.

1354
01:02:40,049 --> 01:02:40,230
Mm-hmm.

1355
01:02:40,605 --> 01:02:42,015
Marko Papic: What did
America get from China?

1356
01:02:42,015 --> 01:02:43,185
Like, oh, buy our soybeans.

1357
01:02:43,214 --> 01:02:43,904
Whoa, great.

1358
01:02:44,595 --> 01:02:49,484
But the phase two is about, Hey man, you
do not import any services from the us.

1359
01:02:49,544 --> 01:02:51,134
That is where we have an advantage.

1360
01:02:51,134 --> 01:02:52,875
The US has an advantage in services.

1361
01:02:53,174 --> 01:02:56,504
You have an advantage in like
widgets and consumer electronics.

1362
01:02:56,504 --> 01:03:00,435
Cool, we'll buy your consumer
electronics, but you can't stop our,

1363
01:03:00,705 --> 01:03:03,585
you know, insurance companies coming
in and doing an m and a with yours,

1364
01:03:03,585 --> 01:03:07,575
like Geico should, should be allowed
to come to China, buy a bunch of, you

1365
01:03:07,575 --> 01:03:12,705
know, poorly run Chinese insurance
companies and like, boom, there you go.

1366
01:03:12,884 --> 01:03:14,355
That would be beneficial.

1367
01:03:14,355 --> 01:03:20,234
So that's where I think that cracking
China open could be very beneficial

1368
01:03:20,234 --> 01:03:21,825
to the US and to the relationship.

1369
01:03:22,424 --> 01:03:25,845
Um, and I think that that's where
he's headed and that's why I

1370
01:03:25,845 --> 01:03:30,134
think what's interesting is that
negotiating with China first is a

1371
01:03:30,134 --> 01:03:31,785
brilliant strategy and here's why.

1372
01:03:32,775 --> 01:03:35,115
Telling Vietnam that they're
not allowed to take Chinese.

1373
01:03:35,115 --> 01:03:35,595
FDI.

1374
01:03:35,625 --> 01:03:36,405
That's stupid.

1375
01:03:36,465 --> 01:03:38,475
Vietnam is going to laugh at your face.

1376
01:03:38,655 --> 01:03:40,575
So is Indonesia, so is Malaysia.

1377
01:03:40,575 --> 01:03:42,225
This was the Stephen Iran approach.

1378
01:03:42,225 --> 01:03:44,985
Like people owe us for our
liberty, so they're gonna have

1379
01:03:44,985 --> 01:03:46,125
to like, make a deal with us.

1380
01:03:46,125 --> 01:03:49,425
Nobody owes America pretty much
anything unless you're South Korea.

1381
01:03:49,605 --> 01:03:52,425
Israel, Ukraine, maybe Estonia.

1382
01:03:52,995 --> 01:03:53,745
Who did I miss?

1383
01:03:54,855 --> 01:03:59,055
Uh, Japan, Taiwan, Germany, may,
no, Japan is a nuclear power.

1384
01:03:59,055 --> 01:04:01,365
I'm not even like Yeah, if
they wanted to they have nukes.

1385
01:04:01,365 --> 01:04:01,815
They're fine.

1386
01:04:02,055 --> 01:04:06,675
Look, my point is it's, there's very,
very, very few countries in the world they

1387
01:04:06,675 --> 01:04:10,065
can actually like us, can actually bully.

1388
01:04:10,275 --> 01:04:14,010
And so what President Trump did, instead
of going with the Howard Lutnick, Peter

1389
01:04:14,010 --> 01:04:15,705
Navarro approach, he was like, okay, cool.

1390
01:04:15,975 --> 01:04:19,485
You guys don't wanna make a deal
with us to keep our Chinese FDI out.

1391
01:04:20,535 --> 01:04:23,325
They, i'll undercut you because
I'll negotiate with China first.

1392
01:04:23,415 --> 01:04:24,555
I'll make a deal with China.

1393
01:04:26,235 --> 01:04:30,465
And so that's, I I do think that
there's like, that is a smart approach.

1394
01:04:30,675 --> 01:04:31,185
Uh, now.

1395
01:04:31,950 --> 01:04:34,860
Does he have a lot of,
uh, weapons against China?

1396
01:04:34,860 --> 01:04:36,300
No, I agree with you.

1397
01:04:36,300 --> 01:04:41,730
The US is gonna have to do a lot of
bending over here, uh, or, or kowtowing,

1398
01:04:41,760 --> 01:04:43,020
however you wanna describe it.

1399
01:04:43,620 --> 01:04:46,920
Um, so that, that I agree with,
uh, but I don't think that it's

1400
01:04:46,980 --> 01:04:49,650
stupid to make a deal with China.

1401
01:04:49,680 --> 01:04:49,800
No,

1402
01:04:49,800 --> 01:04:52,020
Jacob Shapiro: but, but I think you're
onto something with what you said about

1403
01:04:52,020 --> 01:04:55,860
immigration because you know, if you
had asked me even eight weeks ago, like

1404
01:04:55,860 --> 01:04:59,160
the bipartisan issue that you could
get both sides to agree on and which it

1405
01:04:59,160 --> 01:05:03,420
has been a bipartisan issue now since
roughly 2015, is that China is bad.

1406
01:05:03,960 --> 01:05:07,020
And what we're talking about here
is the Trump administration saying,

1407
01:05:07,050 --> 01:05:10,080
uh, like maybe China's okay, can
we take it from China being bad?

1408
01:05:10,080 --> 01:05:14,310
And both sides hating China to, Hey,
immigrants are bad and, and China's okay.

1409
01:05:14,340 --> 01:05:15,810
'cause we're gonna make
a trade deal with them.

1410
01:05:15,840 --> 01:05:18,480
'cause we need to trade with them
and don't look too closely, abandon

1411
01:05:18,570 --> 01:05:19,555
all the other guys the problem.

1412
01:05:20,315 --> 01:05:20,895
Marko Papic: No, I hear you.

1413
01:05:20,935 --> 01:05:25,170
I hear the problem is that China
is bad is for a children's book

1414
01:05:25,200 --> 01:05:28,740
that's like seven years, like.

1415
01:05:29,715 --> 01:05:33,555
People in Washington DC who
say that have a mental for, uh,

1416
01:05:33,585 --> 01:05:35,715
like aptitude of a 7-year-old.

1417
01:05:36,765 --> 01:05:39,225
Jacob Shapiro: Yeah, which I think
also probably describes the median

1418
01:05:39,225 --> 01:05:42,105
voter if, if you look back at Pew
data, one of the really interesting

1419
01:05:42,105 --> 01:05:45,315
things here, and this, this goes to
a larger conversation about how like

1420
01:05:45,345 --> 01:05:49,065
top-down political views eventually
make their way to the median voter.

1421
01:05:49,215 --> 01:05:53,115
Like if you go back 10, 12 years, um,
older people were always suspicious

1422
01:05:53,115 --> 01:05:55,965
of China 'cause they remembered the
Cold War and China was communists

1423
01:05:55,965 --> 01:05:58,245
and they remembered Mao or stories
of MAO or things like that.

1424
01:05:58,425 --> 01:06:01,545
But younger gen, the younger generation
in the United States actually liked

1425
01:06:01,545 --> 01:06:04,725
China, like had no negative feelings
about them, didn't remember the Cold

1426
01:06:04,725 --> 01:06:06,285
War, weren't thinking about communism.

1427
01:06:06,285 --> 01:06:09,075
And if you trust the data on the
Chinese side, it was relatively true.

1428
01:06:09,375 --> 01:06:12,225
That has changed over the last
10 years and it's changed, I

1429
01:06:12,225 --> 01:06:14,775
don't think, because young people
suddenly decided to hate China.

1430
01:06:14,775 --> 01:06:18,645
But because they have been fed
an unceasing diet, to your point

1431
01:06:18,645 --> 01:06:20,205
of the 7-year-old point of view.

1432
01:06:20,700 --> 01:06:24,150
And it's one of the only things that
they get any kind of bipartisan agreement

1433
01:06:24,150 --> 01:06:25,320
from, which is China's a threat.

1434
01:06:25,320 --> 01:06:28,980
And this has been a, this has sort of
been a, a refrain in US politics for

1435
01:06:28,980 --> 01:06:32,340
a hundred plus years that China's a
threat and they were the original, not

1436
01:06:32,340 --> 01:06:34,740
the original immigrants, but like, you
know, you think about what happened

1437
01:06:34,740 --> 01:06:39,210
in the early 19 hundreds out west, um,
with Chinese immigrants, um, and all

1438
01:06:39,210 --> 01:06:40,890
of that sort of dynamic there as well.

1439
01:06:41,130 --> 01:06:42,060
So, no, I, I hear you.

1440
01:06:42,120 --> 01:06:42,270
Yeah.

1441
01:06:42,450 --> 01:06:42,750
So

1442
01:06:43,500 --> 01:06:43,890
Marko Papic: I hear you.

1443
01:06:43,890 --> 01:06:45,090
But I, but I would say two things.

1444
01:06:45,180 --> 01:06:46,140
First of all, um,

1445
01:06:49,410 --> 01:06:54,900
there can be a bipartisan consensus that,
you know, we should all go to the moon

1446
01:06:55,200 --> 01:07:00,510
and live in its craters, but you cannot
do anything about it 'cause it's insane.

1447
01:07:00,660 --> 01:07:05,580
And so what the United States of
America has now found out over the

1448
01:07:05,580 --> 01:07:11,310
last eight years is that if we don't
live in a bipolar world, if you don't

1449
01:07:11,310 --> 01:07:15,300
have your allies supporting you,
then saying China bad is vacuous.

1450
01:07:16,020 --> 01:07:20,220
In the 19th century, people understood
the reality of multipolarity, which is

1451
01:07:20,220 --> 01:07:23,549
you can have an adversary and you still
have to trade with them because if you

1452
01:07:23,549 --> 01:07:25,350
don't, your own allies will undercut you.

1453
01:07:25,860 --> 01:07:29,730
This is a very important game
theoretical dynamic that you know,

1454
01:07:29,730 --> 01:07:32,790
quite frankly, I described like
six years ago, people thought I had

1455
01:07:32,790 --> 01:07:34,170
three heads when I described it.

1456
01:07:34,380 --> 01:07:37,950
It's been correct US has
continued to trade with China.

1457
01:07:37,950 --> 01:07:40,049
Actually it's increased its
trade with China over the last

1458
01:07:40,049 --> 01:07:42,270
five years despite a consensus.

1459
01:07:42,690 --> 01:07:43,080
Why?

1460
01:07:43,080 --> 01:07:46,170
Because you cannot unravel
this relationship quickly.

1461
01:07:46,170 --> 01:07:51,480
In fact, in fact, you trade with
your enemy in a multiple or ordering

1462
01:07:51,480 --> 01:07:55,740
of the world because the French,
the South Koreans, the Japanese,

1463
01:07:55,740 --> 01:07:59,910
the Japanese who are right next to
China, supposedly at risk of war with

1464
01:07:59,910 --> 01:08:03,960
them, the Japanese are not gonna stop
selling goods and services to them.

1465
01:08:04,380 --> 01:08:08,880
And that's because geopolitical
power is based on material wealth.

1466
01:08:10,245 --> 01:08:14,444
To accrue that material wealth, you need
to actually trade with your adversary.

1467
01:08:14,444 --> 01:08:17,175
So I think that China is bad meme.

1468
01:08:17,625 --> 01:08:19,304
It's a meme, it means nothing.

1469
01:08:19,484 --> 01:08:23,745
And you cannot actually do foreign
policy or trade policy based off of it.

1470
01:08:23,745 --> 01:08:23,925
Well, no.

1471
01:08:23,925 --> 01:08:25,245
If it meant, on the other hand, if

1472
01:08:25,245 --> 01:08:27,165
Jacob Shapiro: it meant nothing, then
he wouldn't have to do the pivot to

1473
01:08:27,194 --> 01:08:30,764
immigration because like his base
and a large swath of the American

1474
01:08:30,764 --> 01:08:32,385
electorate does think China is bad.

1475
01:08:32,385 --> 01:08:34,125
And he's been selling
that since the first term.

1476
01:08:34,125 --> 01:08:38,325
So he does have to do some, some like,
um, some PR management around that.

1477
01:08:38,325 --> 01:08:41,144
Because if he's gonna make a deal with
Xi Jinping, he has to at least, and

1478
01:08:41,144 --> 01:08:43,845
it doesn't have to be much like he has
shown that he can do it fairly easily

1479
01:08:43,845 --> 01:08:45,255
with the Magac crowd and his supporters.

1480
01:08:45,434 --> 01:08:48,314
But he does have to just say like,
Hey, you know, I got the deal.

1481
01:08:48,375 --> 01:08:50,715
Like he kowtowed to me, like I'm the guy.

1482
01:08:50,715 --> 01:08:51,705
China's with us now.

1483
01:08:51,705 --> 01:08:52,665
Like they've made the deal.

1484
01:08:52,665 --> 01:08:53,865
Like they have to make that move.

1485
01:08:55,335 --> 01:08:58,545
Marko Papic: The second thing I would say
to you, and this is more controversial.

1486
01:09:00,104 --> 01:09:04,035
But I think that the American
view of China has peaked in

1487
01:09:04,035 --> 01:09:05,085
terms of how negative it is.

1488
01:09:05,085 --> 01:09:08,444
And actually the pure research, I'm
looking at it right now, the pure

1489
01:09:08,444 --> 01:09:12,675
research study that you point out,
uh, it basically negative view of

1490
01:09:12,675 --> 01:09:20,264
China was, uh, it was 50 negative,
the 55 negative 35 positive in 2014.

1491
01:09:21,465 --> 01:09:24,524
And then right around when he
started making those deals,

1492
01:09:24,854 --> 01:09:26,085
it kind of actually narrowed.

1493
01:09:26,085 --> 01:09:26,205
Mm-hmm.

1494
01:09:26,535 --> 01:09:29,835
And then COVID just absolutely
exploded to negativity.

1495
01:09:30,075 --> 01:09:30,375
Right.

1496
01:09:31,095 --> 01:09:32,264
It's actually rolled over.

1497
01:09:33,345 --> 01:09:33,764
That's good.

1498
01:09:34,575 --> 01:09:38,774
Now it's still in the seventies,
but it's gone from 83 to 77

1499
01:09:38,774 --> 01:09:39,885
over the last three years.

1500
01:09:39,885 --> 01:09:42,795
And the favorable view
has gone from 14 to 21%.

1501
01:09:43,365 --> 01:09:44,925
So I think we've seen the peak.

1502
01:09:45,014 --> 01:09:49,095
I don't think it's gonna go down
to 50 50, but it's interesting.

1503
01:09:49,545 --> 01:09:54,224
Yeah, it's interesting that there
is a decline, like the number

1504
01:09:54,224 --> 01:09:55,785
of, uh, people who believe.

1505
01:09:56,355 --> 01:10:02,625
Who have a very unfavorable view of
China in America was in 2024 was 43%.

1506
01:10:02,745 --> 01:10:04,635
The varies down to 33%.

1507
01:10:05,805 --> 01:10:07,275
So that's a significance decline.

1508
01:10:07,875 --> 01:10:10,695
Um, and I think part of that,
by the way, part of that is

1509
01:10:10,695 --> 01:10:11,775
that Trump is the president.

1510
01:10:12,645 --> 01:10:16,905
And I think part of that is that Trump
understands this multipolar dynamic

1511
01:10:16,905 --> 01:10:22,365
that in a multipolar world, China's
clearly an adversary of the US.

1512
01:10:22,425 --> 01:10:26,415
And to be fair to the Chinese America
is clearly an adversary of China.

1513
01:10:27,105 --> 01:10:29,415
But that doesn't mean
that you can decouple.

1514
01:10:29,715 --> 01:10:31,395
It's just impossible to do that

1515
01:10:32,115 --> 01:10:32,295
Jacob Shapiro: Well,

1516
01:10:32,595 --> 01:10:34,725
Marko Papic: and, and, and it's
impossible because of the multipolar

1517
01:10:34,725 --> 01:10:38,115
world, unless of course the rest of the
world decides to follow America on this.

1518
01:10:38,145 --> 01:10:42,615
But it would require China to do
something like invade Taiwan or be

1519
01:10:42,615 --> 01:10:47,205
extremely negative in some way, or like
to change the dynamic of the planet.

1520
01:10:47,205 --> 01:10:50,295
And so that's where I think
the deal is inevitable.

1521
01:10:50,295 --> 01:10:53,895
And the weird thing that most of our
liberal listeners don't want to hear.

1522
01:10:54,420 --> 01:10:57,900
The truth is that only really Trump
can make a deal with China, just

1523
01:10:57,900 --> 01:10:59,940
like only Nixon could go to China.

1524
01:11:00,210 --> 01:11:01,440
As the old adage goes,

1525
01:11:01,500 --> 01:11:02,670
Jacob Shapiro: yeah, the the Democrats.

1526
01:11:03,195 --> 01:11:07,995
Have been stuck on China as an
issue literally since FDR, you

1527
01:11:07,995 --> 01:11:10,155
know, sort of picked the wrong side.

1528
01:11:10,185 --> 01:11:13,725
And, and, uh, Truman picked the wrong side
on the Chinese Civil War, and it's been

1529
01:11:13,725 --> 01:11:15,375
a bugaboo for the Democrats ever since.

1530
01:11:15,375 --> 01:11:18,735
Like, you could tie the decisions in
Vietnam to the Democrats, insecurity

1531
01:11:18,735 --> 01:11:21,105
about their decisions about China
in the Korean War, and they just,

1532
01:11:21,405 --> 01:11:23,565
they have not been able to clean
out the skeletons in their closet.

1533
01:11:23,925 --> 01:11:26,685
Um, one other thing I want to, I
wanna say, and then we can either

1534
01:11:26,685 --> 01:11:29,175
go here or then we should talk about
California secession, which is this

1535
01:11:29,175 --> 01:11:32,715
also what you just said underscores
why it's so important maybe for the

1536
01:11:32,715 --> 01:11:33,945
Trump administration to get a deal.

1537
01:11:33,945 --> 01:11:34,335
Now.

1538
01:11:34,635 --> 01:11:36,975
I reject the notion that he
thinks the world is multipolar.

1539
01:11:36,975 --> 01:11:38,085
I will, I will go with you.

1540
01:11:38,085 --> 01:11:41,655
That he has an instinct for where power is
and that he could see that China is a big

1541
01:11:41,655 --> 01:11:43,005
power that he needs to interact with them.

1542
01:11:43,005 --> 01:11:45,135
But I, I don't think it's like
intellectually codified that way.

1543
01:11:45,135 --> 01:11:46,245
I think it's just instinctual.

1544
01:11:46,515 --> 01:11:49,725
But you're right in the sense
that US and China, they're

1545
01:11:49,725 --> 01:11:51,255
trading more in an absolute sense.

1546
01:11:51,255 --> 01:11:51,885
It's going much.

1547
01:11:51,885 --> 01:11:54,825
And that China's actually a bigger share
of US exports in a lot of different

1548
01:11:54,825 --> 01:11:56,835
areas than it was even five years ago.

1549
01:11:57,345 --> 01:11:57,765
But.

1550
01:11:58,545 --> 01:11:59,565
That's not true for China.

1551
01:11:59,625 --> 01:12:02,295
China's been reducing its
dependence on the United States.

1552
01:12:02,295 --> 01:12:07,005
So even as it imports more, the US share
of some of those things has gone down.

1553
01:12:07,545 --> 01:12:09,615
So if you're looking sort
of since 2008 mm-hmm.

1554
01:12:10,065 --> 01:12:13,305
The United States has become more,
dependent is the wrong word, but more

1555
01:12:13,305 --> 01:12:16,185
exposed to exports and trade with China.

1556
01:12:16,335 --> 01:12:17,055
And China.

1557
01:12:17,085 --> 01:12:19,485
While it's still huge, it's still
a huge vulnerability enough that

1558
01:12:19,485 --> 01:12:21,615
they have to make the deals like
they have to be at the table.

1559
01:12:21,615 --> 01:12:23,985
They have to make a deal here too,
for the things that are going on in

1560
01:12:23,985 --> 01:12:26,925
their economy, but the graph is going
in the opposite direction for them.

1561
01:12:27,170 --> 01:12:30,515
They have been successful at very
slowly diversifying from the United

1562
01:12:30,515 --> 01:12:33,620
States, finding other export markets,
building up vertical champions.

1563
01:12:33,860 --> 01:12:37,430
So if you keep going, if you like
extrapolate out, the United States

1564
01:12:37,430 --> 01:12:40,040
is gonna become more dependent and
China will become less dependent.

1565
01:12:40,040 --> 01:12:42,920
Which to your point is maybe why the
United States really has to say, look

1566
01:12:42,920 --> 01:12:46,640
like this is our last, it's, it's not
so much about, you know, it's only

1567
01:12:46,640 --> 01:12:49,760
Trump can do it, but this is the last
moment where maybe you have enough

1568
01:12:49,760 --> 01:12:53,540
leverage to make the Chinese take
you seriously in a trade negotiation.

1569
01:12:53,690 --> 01:12:56,570
Literation like this might be the last
chance, but that's 'cause if you don't

1570
01:12:56,570 --> 01:12:58,640
do it now, five, 10 years from now, yeah.

1571
01:12:58,640 --> 01:13:01,430
There's probably not a deal that you
like that is gonna be, is gonna be had.

1572
01:13:02,810 --> 01:13:05,990
Marko Papic: Just to be clear though,
um, when you look at the data, a lot

1573
01:13:05,990 --> 01:13:10,460
of their FDI is going into Vietnam
and Mexico so it can access us.

1574
01:13:10,490 --> 01:13:10,580
Mm-hmm.

1575
01:13:10,820 --> 01:13:10,940
Jacob Shapiro: Yeah.

1576
01:13:11,060 --> 01:13:12,170
Marko Papic: So it goes both ways.

1577
01:13:12,170 --> 01:13:13,310
It does, it goes both ways, right?

1578
01:13:13,610 --> 01:13:20,270
US trade imbalance with China has
massively corrected, but it's trade

1579
01:13:20,270 --> 01:13:23,030
balance with the rest of the world
continues to be negative because this

1580
01:13:23,030 --> 01:13:24,800
is all Chinese trade going from Vietnam.

1581
01:13:26,415 --> 01:13:30,554
So like, but that, that means
also for China, that final demand

1582
01:13:30,554 --> 01:13:36,945
for China is not changing yet the
final demand remains in the US and

1583
01:13:36,945 --> 01:13:40,605
Europe for their goods and Japan.

1584
01:13:40,785 --> 01:13:43,365
So, you know, like, and, and
especially because they have not done

1585
01:13:43,365 --> 01:13:45,495
anything to boost their consumption.

1586
01:13:45,525 --> 01:13:45,705
Mm-hmm.

1587
01:13:45,915 --> 01:13:47,625
True geopolitical sovereignty.

1588
01:13:47,655 --> 01:13:50,264
Like if Xi Jinping is listening,
turn the TikTok camera on.

1589
01:13:50,325 --> 01:13:50,535
Okay.

1590
01:13:50,535 --> 01:13:53,205
And very appropriate
that it's TikTok camera.

1591
01:13:53,205 --> 01:13:53,264
Yeah.

1592
01:13:53,264 --> 01:13:53,415
Very.

1593
01:13:55,905 --> 01:14:00,644
Um, president Xi, you want to be
independent, you wanna be sovereign,

1594
01:14:01,934 --> 01:14:06,014
then you need to do what you don't
want to do, which is boost consumption

1595
01:14:06,044 --> 01:14:09,674
in your own country, over capacity,
over production, the stuff that

1596
01:14:10,184 --> 01:14:15,794
rankles the west, the fact that you
don't import enough Western goods.

1597
01:14:16,094 --> 01:14:22,214
This is all a product of an unbalanced
macroeconomic feature of China, which

1598
01:14:22,214 --> 01:14:24,105
is that people don't consume enough.

1599
01:14:25,020 --> 01:14:28,470
So what I would say to you,
Jacob, is that, uh, China hasn't

1600
01:14:28,470 --> 01:14:32,190
really, really shifted where
the final demand is coming from.

1601
01:14:32,190 --> 01:14:33,450
It's still America and Europe.

1602
01:14:33,840 --> 01:14:37,740
They have just kind of like diverted
it, but the final demand is still there.

1603
01:14:37,740 --> 01:14:41,070
And also their own demand in
internally hasn't been supported.

1604
01:14:41,070 --> 01:14:45,150
Now, the irony here is that as China
boosts its consumption, which I

1605
01:14:45,150 --> 01:14:48,570
think it will have to just because of
macroeconomic amount as it does that

1606
01:14:49,980 --> 01:14:53,160
you might say, aha, they're gonna
buy more Chinese goods and so on.

1607
01:14:53,520 --> 01:14:55,950
But like, nah, I think
they'll still buy more.

1608
01:14:55,950 --> 01:14:59,190
Like if they boost their consumption as
much as I think they need to in order

1609
01:14:59,190 --> 01:15:02,970
to become truly sovereign, they'll still
import more from the US and Europe.

1610
01:15:03,780 --> 01:15:04,320
Now they'll.

1611
01:15:04,635 --> 01:15:09,135
They'll buy a ton more Chinese goods
for sure, but the trading balances will

1612
01:15:09,135 --> 01:15:12,525
actually correct in a positive way where
everybody can kind of sink kumbaya.

1613
01:15:13,365 --> 01:15:16,575
Uh, nonetheless, we kinda like
went off, uh, from immigration

1614
01:15:16,575 --> 01:15:18,105
to trade because, you know why?

1615
01:15:18,105 --> 01:15:22,545
Because that's where the geopolitical,
I think, uh, gravity takes us

1616
01:15:22,605 --> 01:15:24,345
in every conversation we have.

1617
01:15:24,705 --> 01:15:27,555
We end up going back to these
trade negotiations and the

1618
01:15:27,555 --> 01:15:28,875
rebalancing of the world.

1619
01:15:29,265 --> 01:15:31,785
And I think that it, it's
just, you can't escape it.

1620
01:15:31,785 --> 01:15:31,995
Right.

1621
01:15:31,995 --> 01:15:34,845
We started talking about immigration,
what was going on in la but we

1622
01:15:34,845 --> 01:15:37,785
can't escape talking about this
issue 'cause it's so important.

1623
01:15:37,785 --> 01:15:37,875
Well,

1624
01:15:37,875 --> 01:15:40,005
Jacob Shapiro: and this is the
great, I mean, geopolitics has plenty

1625
01:15:40,005 --> 01:15:41,295
of blind spots and if you only.

1626
01:15:41,640 --> 01:15:44,070
Use geopolitical analysis, you will
get some things wrong, but this

1627
01:15:44,070 --> 01:15:46,920
is the great virtue of geopolitics
and the way that it cuts across

1628
01:15:46,920 --> 01:15:50,040
disciplines and connects things that
on the surface don't seem connected.

1629
01:15:50,099 --> 01:15:52,349
Like there is absolutely an inextricable.

1630
01:15:52,380 --> 01:15:57,240
Have you seen has, I would challenge,
uh, listeners, if anybody has seen anyone

1631
01:15:57,240 --> 01:16:01,470
analytically tying what's happening
in Los Angeles to the US China trade

1632
01:16:01,470 --> 01:16:03,375
deal, like deal making that's happening.

1633
01:16:03,375 --> 01:16:07,140
Like that is the first place my brain went
and all I'm seeing from the media is, oh

1634
01:16:07,140 --> 01:16:10,650
my God, it's the end of Los Angeles as we
know it in the United States coming apart.

1635
01:16:10,650 --> 01:16:11,400
This seems like, no, no, the.

1636
01:16:11,685 --> 01:16:14,894
All of these things are interconnected,
and you have to be a very interconnected,

1637
01:16:14,894 --> 01:16:18,585
you have to be a deep generalist and
have enough, it's this weird combination

1638
01:16:18,585 --> 01:16:21,945
of humility and arrogance to say like,
you know what, like, I know enough

1639
01:16:21,945 --> 01:16:25,425
about all of these different things to
try and create this map of connections.

1640
01:16:25,425 --> 01:16:28,545
And maybe I can start ascribing causality
to some of these things could, because

1641
01:16:28,545 --> 01:16:29,985
most people will just stay in their lane.

1642
01:16:30,015 --> 01:16:32,894
The immigration expert will stay in their
lane and the trade expert will stay in

1643
01:16:32,894 --> 01:16:35,985
their lane and the California politic,
like, you know, you have to connect

1644
01:16:35,985 --> 01:16:37,095
all these different things together.

1645
01:16:37,095 --> 01:16:40,845
But let's close on this, um, with,
with our last 15 minutes here.

1646
01:16:41,055 --> 01:16:44,865
Um, you sent me some stuff about
California potentially seceding.

1647
01:16:45,225 --> 01:16:47,805
Um, I don't think this is gonna happen
anytime soon, but they are trying to

1648
01:16:47,805 --> 01:16:51,195
get a question on the 2028 ballot,
which would be, should California leave

1649
01:16:51,195 --> 01:16:54,855
the United States and become a free
and independent country if at least.

1650
01:16:55,545 --> 01:16:57,315
First they have to get
half a million signatures.

1651
01:16:57,555 --> 01:17:01,425
If 50% of registered California
voters cast ballots and it passes

1652
01:17:01,425 --> 01:17:05,985
by 50%, then there can be a study
about whether that's gonna happen.

1653
01:17:06,015 --> 01:17:08,655
So it's not like these things are
gonna happen like imminently or in

1654
01:17:08,655 --> 01:17:12,075
real time, but we should talk about
the notion of California secession and

1655
01:17:12,075 --> 01:17:13,725
about the idea of secession in general.

1656
01:17:13,725 --> 01:17:16,035
I don't think it's a zero, and I
think you were right to send it to me.

1657
01:17:17,925 --> 01:17:24,765
Marko Papic: Yeah, so I think, uh, you
know, this is, you know, I can defend

1658
01:17:24,825 --> 01:17:29,085
President Trump with a lot of different
things, but I think that where, uh, and

1659
01:17:29,085 --> 01:17:31,935
this is not just his fault, obviously
it's fault of the left and the right,

1660
01:17:31,935 --> 01:17:35,310
but I think that if you want to think
about the greatest danger to the United

1661
01:17:35,310 --> 01:17:38,115
States of America, it's not the deficit.

1662
01:17:38,895 --> 01:17:43,575
You know, it's not China,
it's not any of these issues.

1663
01:17:43,605 --> 01:17:45,015
It's really itself.

1664
01:17:45,945 --> 01:17:51,030
And so, uh, the last time, as you
said, national Guard was, I. Invoked

1665
01:17:51,030 --> 01:17:54,900
by the, uh, called up by the president
against the wishes of the state

1666
01:17:55,410 --> 01:17:59,969
was the issue of segregation, which
fundamentally was what the Civil

1667
01:17:59,969 --> 01:18:02,669
War was about as well on some level.

1668
01:18:02,820 --> 01:18:04,769
And now also also by the way, about

1669
01:18:04,769 --> 01:18:07,410
Jacob Shapiro: low class labor that
was paid nothing that everybody

1670
01:18:07,410 --> 01:18:08,910
utilized, including the north.

1671
01:18:08,910 --> 01:18:10,559
Like there's a nice little
throughput there too.

1672
01:18:11,940 --> 01:18:13,469
Marko Papic: Oh yeah, that's,
that's a very good point.

1673
01:18:13,469 --> 01:18:13,919
Yes.

1674
01:18:14,040 --> 01:18:16,650
And underclass, right, uh,
uh, in the labor market.

1675
01:18:17,219 --> 01:18:18,120
Uh, great tie in.

1676
01:18:18,809 --> 01:18:25,469
Um, and so, yeah, I think that, uh, this
is another example, another example where

1677
01:18:25,469 --> 01:18:28,559
the US federal government is trying to
do something that the states don't like.

1678
01:18:29,280 --> 01:18:31,860
And in this particular case,
it's about immigration, but

1679
01:18:31,860 --> 01:18:32,669
it could be about anything.

1680
01:18:32,820 --> 01:18:34,559
You know, it could be about
the, uh, other issues.

1681
01:18:34,559 --> 01:18:38,429
And don't forget, don't forget one of the
things that launched this whole thing on

1682
01:18:38,429 --> 01:18:43,889
Friday, last Friday before the protest
started against ice, there was this, uh,

1683
01:18:43,889 --> 01:18:47,849
news item that we now forgo, forgot, which
is that the White House was seriously

1684
01:18:47,849 --> 01:18:49,950
discussing withholding federal funds.

1685
01:18:50,429 --> 01:18:55,080
From California because of the
transgendered athlete who competed,

1686
01:18:55,080 --> 01:18:59,700
and I think she won some, uh,
athletics championships in California.

1687
01:19:00,690 --> 01:19:04,559
And then Governor Newsom retorted, I
don't know if you saw this on Friday.

1688
01:19:04,559 --> 01:19:07,559
It was like, it, it flashed across
the news on Friday and was quickly

1689
01:19:07,559 --> 01:19:09,150
forgotten because LA got it.

1690
01:19:09,929 --> 01:19:14,490
It went into this, um, whole situation,
but covering, Newsom returned it

1691
01:19:14,490 --> 01:19:18,330
by saying that he's gonna withhold
some 70 odd billion dollars that

1692
01:19:18,330 --> 01:19:22,830
the California pays into the IRS
when it collects federal taxes.

1693
01:19:24,809 --> 01:19:25,110
Hmm.

1694
01:19:25,559 --> 01:19:29,250
So California, in other words,
is definitely what we would

1695
01:19:29,250 --> 01:19:31,110
call a, uh, uh, what is it?

1696
01:19:31,139 --> 01:19:31,530
Um.

1697
01:19:32,430 --> 01:19:35,400
A have, there's have nots
and have states, right?

1698
01:19:35,850 --> 01:19:39,810
California's a have state, and I, I know
people love to make fun of California,

1699
01:19:39,810 --> 01:19:41,310
but boy, do we make money here.

1700
01:19:41,340 --> 01:19:42,630
Jacob Shapiro: Well,
not, not just California.

1701
01:19:42,630 --> 01:19:46,290
I mean, Los Angeles is, I had this data
pulled for this for exactly for this.

1702
01:19:46,290 --> 01:19:48,000
It's the second largest
city in the United States.

1703
01:19:48,000 --> 01:19:51,390
It's the 24th largest city in
the world just ahead of Moscow.

1704
01:19:51,720 --> 01:19:55,650
The greater Los Angeles area has
a GDP of over a trillion dollars.

1705
01:19:55,800 --> 01:20:00,240
That's larger than the GDP of Switzerland
or of Poland, or even Argentina.

1706
01:20:00,240 --> 01:20:03,690
So just the Los Angeles area that
you're picking a fight with, with right

1707
01:20:03,690 --> 01:20:07,590
now would be on the menu of global
powers in a truly multipolar world.

1708
01:20:08,850 --> 01:20:09,120
Marko Papic: Right?

1709
01:20:09,120 --> 01:20:12,960
So, so this is where I think,
you know, why do I say that?

1710
01:20:12,990 --> 01:20:14,970
I, I say this because
forget the National Guard.

1711
01:20:14,970 --> 01:20:15,840
Forget the Marines.

1712
01:20:16,140 --> 01:20:20,280
There was a news item on Friday that
was actually worse, which is that

1713
01:20:20,280 --> 01:20:24,570
President Trump says, I don't like that
a transgendered athlete competed in one.

1714
01:20:25,950 --> 01:20:27,840
I'm gonna withhold federal funds.

1715
01:20:29,549 --> 01:20:32,940
Governor Newsom says that I would hold
the money we pay into the treasury,

1716
01:20:35,009 --> 01:20:38,040
forget ice, forget National
LA Guard, forget the protest.

1717
01:20:38,040 --> 01:20:39,389
This happened without any of that.

1718
01:20:39,809 --> 01:20:44,460
It happened because one transgendered
athlete competed and won some stuff.

1719
01:20:45,780 --> 01:20:50,610
So the threshold for people to
lose their shit is very, very low.

1720
01:20:50,820 --> 01:20:54,929
You know, it's like a couple, you know,
like a healthy couple has fights all

1721
01:20:54,929 --> 01:21:00,420
the time, but an unhealthy couple like
fights over really dumb things and

1722
01:21:00,420 --> 01:21:04,290
endos fights escalate right away within
like five minutes to like divorce.

1723
01:21:06,599 --> 01:21:07,889
And that's what this was like.

1724
01:21:08,009 --> 01:21:11,670
One human being who happens to be
transgendered wants some stuff.

1725
01:21:12,599 --> 01:21:14,429
I'm gonna withhold federal funding.

1726
01:21:14,490 --> 01:21:17,250
Well, no, I'm gonna like pull
the plug on California financing

1727
01:21:17,250 --> 01:21:18,240
the United States of America.

1728
01:21:18,240 --> 01:21:18,330
What?

1729
01:21:20,370 --> 01:21:20,969
You know, so.

1730
01:21:21,030 --> 01:21:27,450
So I think that this is very unhealthy and
so when you made fun of my Canada pick.

1731
01:21:29,505 --> 01:21:30,375
In the top 10.

1732
01:21:30,375 --> 01:21:31,305
What did I say to you?

1733
01:21:31,930 --> 01:21:32,625
Jacob Shapiro: I, I don't remember.

1734
01:21:32,625 --> 01:21:33,434
Marko Papic: It was a hedge.

1735
01:21:34,095 --> 01:21:35,085
It was a hedge.

1736
01:21:35,955 --> 01:21:36,765
It was a hedge.

1737
01:21:36,765 --> 01:21:40,515
Because my view is that the probability
of this stuff getting really bad

1738
01:21:40,515 --> 01:21:42,165
in the US is very, very elevated.

1739
01:21:42,165 --> 01:21:45,705
And I can tell you that the people that
are the happiest, other than the media

1740
01:21:45,885 --> 01:21:47,925
will love this stuff other than the media.

1741
01:21:48,315 --> 01:21:52,995
I think that the happiest people in
the world are in Beijing and Moscow

1742
01:21:52,995 --> 01:21:56,055
and, and and elsewhere because
these kind of fights are real.

1743
01:21:56,625 --> 01:21:58,305
And I think it's very dangerous.

1744
01:21:58,305 --> 01:22:04,545
And, and if the US were to kind of start
on this path, like that is a redrawing

1745
01:22:04,545 --> 01:22:08,445
of geopolitics at a level that I think
most people can't comprehend mentally.

1746
01:22:08,445 --> 01:22:11,805
Now, how does it get resolved?

1747
01:22:12,825 --> 01:22:16,635
Well, I think that it's just
in the world we live in today.

1748
01:22:17,805 --> 01:22:24,075
Perhaps what needs to happen is some
form of canonization, and this is a

1749
01:22:24,075 --> 01:22:25,905
very Republican conservative view.

1750
01:22:26,580 --> 01:22:30,929
Uh, traditionally, traditionally it was a
Republican conservative view, but I think

1751
01:22:30,929 --> 01:22:35,040
President Trump has obviously become,
uh, far less about state's rights because

1752
01:22:35,040 --> 01:22:36,300
he controls the federal government.

1753
01:22:37,200 --> 01:22:42,269
But in Switzerland, the cantons
have massive power, massive power.

1754
01:22:42,269 --> 01:22:47,130
In fact, the federal government has very
little power and cantons, even to the

1755
01:22:47,130 --> 01:22:51,570
point where they, they enforce immigration
laws and citizenship laws of the country.

1756
01:22:51,570 --> 01:22:56,099
So, for example, the federal
government has minimum requirements

1757
01:22:56,130 --> 01:22:57,450
for you to become a Swiss citizen.

1758
01:22:58,679 --> 01:23:01,740
Like you need to do X,
Y, and Z to become Swiss.

1759
01:23:02,220 --> 01:23:05,580
A Canton will come in and say, no,
no, no, you need to do X, y, z,

1760
01:23:06,510 --> 01:23:08,820
alpha, omega, and beta as well.

1761
01:23:09,240 --> 01:23:10,830
Like you need to do these three things.

1762
01:23:10,830 --> 01:23:15,480
In addition, in this Canton, you know,
and cantons in Switzerland are states,

1763
01:23:15,480 --> 01:23:19,170
but some of them have population of
like 30,000, you know, so it's not

1764
01:23:19,170 --> 01:23:21,780
like these are not large entities.

1765
01:23:21,780 --> 01:23:24,929
And I think that the United
States of America may have to.

1766
01:23:25,530 --> 01:23:31,620
Over the next 30, 40 years, adopt that
kind of a state's rights, cantonal

1767
01:23:31,620 --> 01:23:33,419
canonization view of the world.

1768
01:23:33,419 --> 01:23:39,509
Because if one human being competing
as a transgender athlete causes us

1769
01:23:39,540 --> 01:23:43,530
to get to a point where we're talking
about withholding financing of the US

1770
01:23:43,530 --> 01:23:49,049
government, I think like that's not a
healthy situation that the US is in.

1771
01:23:49,320 --> 01:23:51,629
And so I, I can see this
happening more and more.

1772
01:23:51,839 --> 01:23:55,139
In other words, I think we're finally
at a point where both Republicans and

1773
01:23:55,139 --> 01:24:01,349
conservatives and liberals and Democrats
may be ready to accept what we call in

1774
01:24:01,349 --> 01:24:07,019
the US context, states rights, and which
I call in the global context canonization.

1775
01:24:08,550 --> 01:24:08,790
Jacob Shapiro: Hmm.

1776
01:24:09,750 --> 01:24:12,990
Uh, it reminds me of that episode
in the West Wing where Martin Sheen

1777
01:24:12,990 --> 01:24:14,639
is debating the guy from Florida.

1778
01:24:14,639 --> 01:24:17,760
I can't remember the exact, uh, phrase
phraseology that he uses, but he's

1779
01:24:17,760 --> 01:24:20,700
basically like the, you know, the Florida
governor who he's running against is like

1780
01:24:20,730 --> 01:24:24,059
complaining about all the things that the
federal government does, and Martin Sheen,

1781
01:24:24,180 --> 01:24:25,920
president Bartlett is like, okay, great.

1782
01:24:25,920 --> 01:24:29,070
So we'd like our tax dollars back,
please, if, if you're gonna complain

1783
01:24:29,070 --> 01:24:30,090
about all these other different things.

1784
01:24:30,090 --> 01:24:33,300
So, once again, the West Wing and Aaron
Sorkin predicting some of these things,

1785
01:24:33,510 --> 01:24:35,099
Marko Papic: I mean, that takes Yes,
but the problem with that Jacob.

1786
01:24:35,105 --> 01:24:35,345
Mm-hmm.

1787
01:24:35,445 --> 01:24:38,370
But the problem with that, Jacob, is
I'm not sure that makes any, any sense.

1788
01:24:38,760 --> 01:24:38,849
Mm-hmm.

1789
01:24:39,389 --> 01:24:44,340
In Florida's case, or Texas's case or
California's case, there's, there are

1790
01:24:44,340 --> 01:24:48,720
many states in the United States that are
wealthier without the federal government.

1791
01:24:50,280 --> 01:24:52,950
Now you might say, well, wait a
minute, Marco, like, the state

1792
01:24:52,950 --> 01:24:54,960
of California is in a deficit.

1793
01:24:54,990 --> 01:24:55,530
Yes.

1794
01:24:56,309 --> 01:25:00,420
And just to be clear, I am not at
all advocating for any of this.

1795
01:25:00,720 --> 01:25:01,620
I'm analyzing.

1796
01:25:02,099 --> 01:25:05,010
I personally, I can tell you my
personal view, like I do not want to

1797
01:25:05,070 --> 01:25:06,510
live in an independent California.

1798
01:25:06,990 --> 01:25:09,420
Because lemme tell you, there's
gonna be some growing pains.

1799
01:25:09,420 --> 01:25:13,830
For the first 10 years or so, this
is a one party state, and the one

1800
01:25:13,830 --> 01:25:17,970
party that runs this state has gotten
very comfortable running it poorly.

1801
01:25:18,690 --> 01:25:23,460
So no, like I'm not advocating for
that, but I am seeing like, look, if

1802
01:25:23,460 --> 01:25:27,750
the, if the relationship was redrawn,
there'll be a whole lot more money

1803
01:25:27,750 --> 01:25:29,280
for California to keep to itself.

1804
01:25:29,370 --> 01:25:29,460
Mm-hmm.

1805
01:25:29,910 --> 01:25:32,070
And same with Texas,
and same with Florida.

1806
01:25:32,070 --> 01:25:36,090
I, I, I haven't looked at the data, so
I might not fully know what I'm talking

1807
01:25:36,090 --> 01:25:39,210
about, but I know I'm talking what I'm
talking about in terms of California.

1808
01:25:39,210 --> 01:25:40,380
Yeah, California will be fine.

1809
01:25:40,650 --> 01:25:41,970
The rest of America less so.

1810
01:25:42,600 --> 01:25:45,600
So this is where I'm not sure
the Martin Sheen in that, in that

1811
01:25:45,810 --> 01:25:47,580
exchange is actually correct.

1812
01:25:47,610 --> 01:25:47,850
Yeah.

1813
01:25:47,910 --> 01:25:52,080
Like would Florida suffer
if it was independent?

1814
01:25:52,800 --> 01:25:54,269
Would they have more or less money?

1815
01:25:54,269 --> 01:25:54,870
I don't know.

1816
01:25:56,160 --> 01:25:56,310
Jacob Shapiro: Yeah.

1817
01:25:57,105 --> 01:25:58,394
And I mean, your Canada pick.

1818
01:25:58,394 --> 01:26:02,115
I, I'm still gonna go after your Canada
pick because it's ironic the way that

1819
01:26:02,115 --> 01:26:06,255
Trump is treating Canada has led to this
like, creation of Canadian nationalism.

1820
01:26:06,255 --> 01:26:09,615
But like Canada has the same issues
internally, uh, in, in some sense, some

1821
01:26:09,615 --> 01:26:11,085
of them further, further developed.

1822
01:26:11,115 --> 01:26:14,190
Um, but maybe the way that the United
States is much further to develop is

1823
01:26:14,295 --> 01:26:17,415
like doing these things, things actually
actually creating a stronger Canada.

1824
01:26:17,955 --> 01:26:18,195
But

1825
01:26:18,434 --> 01:26:22,125
Marko Papic: my point was, my point
was like, the reason that I want to

1826
01:26:22,125 --> 01:26:26,595
have Canada as a pick, the reason why I
wanna halt Canadian assets in some way,

1827
01:26:26,595 --> 01:26:33,345
shape, or form, is it's a hedge against
some apocalyptic decline of American,

1828
01:26:33,434 --> 01:26:36,855
uh, stability due to, um, polarization.

1829
01:26:37,485 --> 01:26:41,055
And if, if the United States of
America were to split up, Canada is

1830
01:26:41,055 --> 01:26:44,385
the most powerful country in North
America by default, automatically.

1831
01:26:44,415 --> 01:26:48,045
A like, it's the end of,
end of story, you know?

1832
01:26:48,045 --> 01:26:53,085
And, and that's why I think that that's
literally how I defended the pick.

1833
01:26:53,085 --> 01:26:54,644
I use, I use the term it's a hedge.

1834
01:26:54,644 --> 01:26:54,974
Mm-hmm.

1835
01:26:55,934 --> 01:26:57,885
But, but, but forget
about that issue for now.

1836
01:26:58,245 --> 01:27:02,385
The bigger point is that, I know
it's difficult to do this after an

1837
01:27:02,385 --> 01:27:05,894
hour and a half of talking about
LA riots, but forget LA riots.

1838
01:27:06,075 --> 01:27:06,855
Forget them.

1839
01:27:07,635 --> 01:27:11,295
I, I wish they hadn't happened because
we would still be talking about this.

1840
01:27:11,355 --> 01:27:15,315
Jacob, you and I would still have spent
an hour and a half today talking about

1841
01:27:15,315 --> 01:27:21,945
this issue because one human being who
happens to be transgendered, she competes

1842
01:27:21,945 --> 01:27:24,705
in a athletic meeting, wins some awards.

1843
01:27:25,875 --> 01:27:27,974
Whether you agree with that
or not is not the point.

1844
01:27:28,485 --> 01:27:31,305
If you're very passionate and you
disagree with it, God bless you.

1845
01:27:31,305 --> 01:27:31,995
It's fine.

1846
01:27:32,625 --> 01:27:37,785
Not, I'm not, I'm not criticizing, I'm
just saying it's one human being and it

1847
01:27:37,785 --> 01:27:40,704
leads to the governor of California and
the president of the United States of

1848
01:27:40,705 --> 01:27:43,275
America basically talking about divorce.

1849
01:27:44,655 --> 01:27:50,144
You know, that's like, that's like
two parents talking about divorcing

1850
01:27:50,144 --> 01:27:53,085
themselves because one of their kids.

1851
01:27:53,474 --> 01:27:56,865
Came home and said they wanted
to do bed instead of soccer.

1852
01:27:58,425 --> 01:27:59,955
And the dad is like, fuck no.

1853
01:27:59,955 --> 01:28:00,764
And the mom is like, no.

1854
01:28:00,764 --> 01:28:02,205
You have to let them express themselves.

1855
01:28:02,205 --> 01:28:05,745
And they, and in five minutes they're
talking, let's divide up the assets.

1856
01:28:06,255 --> 01:28:06,525
Yeah.

1857
01:28:06,525 --> 01:28:07,844
Well, I'm gonna take the house.

1858
01:28:07,844 --> 01:28:10,815
You know, like, I mean,
that's, that's unhealthy.

1859
01:28:11,565 --> 01:28:13,035
That's un that's unhealthy.

1860
01:28:13,275 --> 01:28:17,684
If I am objective and, and I, I,
you know, we used to do this at

1861
01:28:17,684 --> 01:28:20,985
Strat for, uh, you know, something
would happen and you pretend you are

1862
01:28:20,985 --> 01:28:22,425
like a journalist writing about it.

1863
01:28:22,455 --> 01:28:22,545
Mm-hmm.

1864
01:28:22,785 --> 01:28:24,165
Writing about an emerging market country.

1865
01:28:24,165 --> 01:28:24,285
Yeah.

1866
01:28:24,290 --> 01:28:24,440
Yeah.

1867
01:28:24,974 --> 01:28:30,465
If you are just writing an objective
analysis of this issue that happened on

1868
01:28:30,465 --> 01:28:35,144
Friday pre-writing, you would say this
is an unhealthy level of polarization

1869
01:28:37,425 --> 01:28:42,255
over a, over a issue that's not relevant
at all to the future of America.

1870
01:28:42,255 --> 01:28:42,855
Sorry.

1871
01:28:43,410 --> 01:28:46,200
Both liberals and conservatives,
'cause both of you are not gonna self

1872
01:28:46,200 --> 01:28:49,019
emulate because the liberals are like,
yeah, transgendered rights matter.

1873
01:28:49,019 --> 01:28:50,639
The conservatives are
like, this is terrible.

1874
01:28:50,969 --> 01:28:54,870
I'm gonna tell you as a geopolitical
strategist who works in finance,

1875
01:28:54,870 --> 01:28:58,349
that no, this will not determine the
fate of the United States of America

1876
01:28:58,440 --> 01:29:00,870
at all, no matter which size wins.

1877
01:29:01,469 --> 01:29:05,879
And yet it led to a talk of divorce.

1878
01:29:06,525 --> 01:29:07,155
That's unhealthy.

1879
01:29:07,184 --> 01:29:07,934
Jacob Shapiro: Well, that's bad.

1880
01:29:08,115 --> 01:29:08,835
Marko Papic: That's a bad sign.

1881
01:29:08,835 --> 01:29:08,955
It

1882
01:29:08,955 --> 01:29:09,375
Jacob Shapiro: is bad.

1883
01:29:09,375 --> 01:29:11,805
And to your point, uh, you don't even
have to pretend to do that exercise.

1884
01:29:11,805 --> 01:29:14,625
The way I do this now is I just go
to the People's Daily and I look at

1885
01:29:14,625 --> 01:29:17,535
how the People's Daily summarizes
these articles in English about what's

1886
01:29:17,535 --> 01:29:19,905
going on in the United States, and
it's exactly what you would expect.

1887
01:29:19,905 --> 01:29:22,665
They're just very coldly,
dissecting exactly what happened.

1888
01:29:22,665 --> 01:29:25,515
And when you get this like Chinese
Communist party view that is

1889
01:29:25,515 --> 01:29:28,095
translated into English of what's
happening in the United States.

1890
01:29:28,485 --> 01:29:29,445
Yeah, it's very sobering.

1891
01:29:29,445 --> 01:29:33,075
And to your point, like Xi Jinping,
like while his negotiators are there in

1892
01:29:33,075 --> 01:29:36,465
London, even if you're right, and even
if like China has less leverage than I

1893
01:29:36,465 --> 01:29:41,415
think it does in Beijing, everything is
going according, not to the plan, but to

1894
01:29:41,415 --> 01:29:42,885
the way that they think about the world.

1895
01:29:42,885 --> 01:29:46,095
If you're a materialist, if you're a
Marxist, if you're like the way that

1896
01:29:46,155 --> 01:29:51,045
the Chinese leadership has been educated
for generations, everything is happening

1897
01:29:51,045 --> 01:29:52,184
the way it's supposed to happen.

1898
01:29:52,184 --> 01:29:55,245
And maybe that leads to hubris eventually,
but like all of the things that they

1899
01:29:55,245 --> 01:29:56,684
were expecting to happen always does.

1900
01:29:56,715 --> 01:29:56,985
Yeah.

1901
01:29:57,045 --> 01:29:59,144
But like right now, in
this moment, oh my gosh.

1902
01:29:59,144 --> 01:30:00,765
They're like, oh my God, it's happening.

1903
01:30:00,825 --> 01:30:03,915
The the capitalist hegemon
is eating itself alive.

1904
01:30:03,945 --> 01:30:04,515
Wow.

1905
01:30:05,175 --> 01:30:05,265
What.

1906
01:30:06,375 --> 01:30:09,224
Marko Papic: And just, and just,
you know, like I, I know we're,

1907
01:30:09,224 --> 01:30:10,575
we're pushing one and a half hours.

1908
01:30:10,575 --> 01:30:13,844
So like, I do like to tie
everything with a sports analogy.

1909
01:30:13,995 --> 01:30:14,264
Yes, do it.

1910
01:30:14,264 --> 01:30:19,485
But, uh, our, uh, our Lord and
Savior, the one to whom we bestow

1911
01:30:19,485 --> 01:30:21,525
all of our gifts and prayers.

1912
01:30:21,615 --> 01:30:25,695
Bill Simmons, the great, he often
talks about body language, right?

1913
01:30:25,695 --> 01:30:25,785
Mm-hmm.

1914
01:30:25,785 --> 01:30:27,165
He's the body language doc.

1915
01:30:27,375 --> 01:30:30,045
He calls himself the body language
doctor, for those of you who don't know

1916
01:30:30,045 --> 01:30:33,495
what I'm talking about, bill Simmons
podcaster, historian of basketball.

1917
01:30:33,915 --> 01:30:37,035
Uh, we're modeling our, our,
our analysis of geopolitics to

1918
01:30:37,035 --> 01:30:39,255
his analysis of, of basketball.

1919
01:30:39,795 --> 01:30:45,315
And he will often say, I watch the
bench when I go watch the game live.

1920
01:30:45,405 --> 01:30:52,125
I'll watch the bench and I'll watch during
timeouts are, are all the players engaged?

1921
01:30:52,304 --> 01:30:53,115
Are they high fiving?

1922
01:30:53,115 --> 01:30:56,295
Are they talking, do they have
side passionate side conversations

1923
01:30:56,295 --> 01:30:57,405
about what happened in the game?

1924
01:30:57,405 --> 01:30:57,495
Mm-hmm.

1925
01:30:58,455 --> 01:31:01,575
And, and it's so funny, it's
such a qualitative analysis, has

1926
01:31:01,575 --> 01:31:03,105
nothing to do with data empirics.

1927
01:31:03,105 --> 01:31:06,195
It, it goes against the
grain of sports analytics.

1928
01:31:06,615 --> 01:31:08,535
But he, he says like,
look, this really matters.

1929
01:31:08,535 --> 01:31:09,765
Chemistry really matters.

1930
01:31:09,765 --> 01:31:11,835
And, and there's nothing
better than body language.

1931
01:31:12,405 --> 01:31:15,285
You know, a bunch of dudes playing
a sport, man, like body language

1932
01:31:15,285 --> 01:31:19,845
is going to come into it, you know,
and that's what we're doing here.

1933
01:31:19,845 --> 01:31:22,035
Like, yeah, we can talk
about National Guard.

1934
01:31:22,035 --> 01:31:22,785
Is it legal?

1935
01:31:22,785 --> 01:31:23,955
Is it not history?

1936
01:31:23,955 --> 01:31:27,615
We can talk about trade tariffs policy,
there's multipolarity, blah, blah, blah.

1937
01:31:27,975 --> 01:31:34,065
At the end of the day, like it's
a really bad sign that the body

1938
01:31:34,065 --> 01:31:36,165
language of the United States
of America is where it is today.

1939
01:31:36,495 --> 01:31:39,855
And you, if you are, and if you're sitting
here listening to this and saying, that's

1940
01:31:39,855 --> 01:31:41,745
Donald Trump's fault, you know what?

1941
01:31:41,745 --> 01:31:43,005
You got your head up your ass.

1942
01:31:43,575 --> 01:31:45,225
It absolutely is not his fault.

1943
01:31:45,765 --> 01:31:47,715
He is a symptom Yeah.

1944
01:31:47,985 --> 01:31:50,415
Of the fact that that's
already there, right?

1945
01:31:50,415 --> 01:31:54,315
So like, it's not, it's not his fault if
he, you know why that's important to say?

1946
01:31:54,315 --> 01:31:54,795
Because.

1947
01:31:55,544 --> 01:31:58,724
Whether you love him or hate him, once
he's gone, it's not gonna get better.

1948
01:32:01,125 --> 01:32:02,834
And I think that that's very dangerous.

1949
01:32:02,834 --> 01:32:04,394
And it's dangerous for investors.

1950
01:32:04,634 --> 01:32:09,044
It's dangerous for people in the US
And I would say it's also dangerous

1951
01:32:09,044 --> 01:32:10,394
for countries around the world.

1952
01:32:10,544 --> 01:32:10,634
Mm-hmm.

1953
01:32:11,445 --> 01:32:13,455
Uh, I, I say it's actually
dangerous for China.

1954
01:32:13,544 --> 01:32:14,625
It's dangerous for Russia.

1955
01:32:14,775 --> 01:32:19,514
It is dangerous for a, it's,
it's just there's very few things

1956
01:32:19,514 --> 01:32:26,115
that I, a truly devoted nihilist
believes is just universally bad.

1957
01:32:26,504 --> 01:32:31,155
But the idea that the United States of
America dissolves or there's a federal,

1958
01:32:31,155 --> 01:32:36,224
state sort of fight, I think that's
universally bad, is gonna create a vacuum.

1959
01:32:36,224 --> 01:32:41,775
It's gonna create, uh, potential
jingoism and Rev. And it's just

1960
01:32:41,834 --> 01:32:45,014
gen, genuinely a bad place to go.

1961
01:32:46,785 --> 01:32:48,554
Jacob Shapiro: Well on that,
Rosie, an optimistic note.

1962
01:32:48,554 --> 01:32:50,415
Anything else you wanna tell the
listeners before we get outta here?

1963
01:32:50,415 --> 01:32:50,625
Mark?

1964
01:32:52,605 --> 01:32:55,125
We'll come back next time with
our Trade Value Leaders, uh,

1965
01:32:55,125 --> 01:32:56,565
our, our trade value leaderboard.

1966
01:32:56,595 --> 01:32:57,465
That sounds really fun.

1967
01:32:57,585 --> 01:32:59,115
Marko Papic: Should we do
that next for next week?

1968
01:32:59,115 --> 01:32:59,235
Yeah,

1969
01:32:59,235 --> 01:33:00,135
Jacob Shapiro: let's
do that for next week.

1970
01:33:00,135 --> 01:33:01,215
I'm, I'm ready to roll on

1971
01:33:01,215 --> 01:33:01,304
Marko Papic: that.

1972
01:33:01,304 --> 01:33:01,394
Yeah.

1973
01:33:01,394 --> 01:33:02,115
We have enough time.

1974
01:33:02,115 --> 01:33:02,684
Yeah, of course.

1975
01:33:02,684 --> 01:33:02,894
Yeah.

1976
01:33:02,925 --> 01:33:03,105
Alright.

1977
01:33:03,105 --> 01:33:04,005
Jacob Shapiro: I, I'm, I'm ready.

1978
01:33:04,005 --> 01:33:06,045
I mean, you already had your
first pick, which I'm, I'm fine.

1979
01:33:06,045 --> 01:33:06,795
You can have Georgia.

1980
01:33:06,795 --> 01:33:07,485
That's fine with me.

1981
01:33:07,485 --> 01:33:07,934
I'll, I'll get

1982
01:33:08,595 --> 01:33:08,745
Marko Papic: through it.

1983
01:33:08,745 --> 01:33:08,808
Whoa, whoa, whoa, whoa.

1984
01:33:08,813 --> 01:33:08,925
Wait, wait.

1985
01:33:08,931 --> 01:33:09,120
Right, right.

1986
01:33:09,195 --> 01:33:11,295
I, I flag that in a press conference.

1987
01:33:11,295 --> 01:33:11,745
Maybe.

1988
01:33:11,745 --> 01:33:12,285
Maybe.

1989
01:33:12,315 --> 01:33:12,525
Okay.

1990
01:33:12,525 --> 01:33:12,825
Maybe.

1991
01:33:12,825 --> 01:33:13,365
Let's see.

1992
01:33:13,665 --> 01:33:14,625
I just want some time.

1993
01:33:14,625 --> 01:33:18,585
I just want some time to go
over it and, and see, but yes.

1994
01:33:18,585 --> 01:33:19,184
In the That's awesome.

1995
01:33:19,184 --> 01:33:21,135
Jacob Shapiro: In the
meantime, Marco, stay safe.

1996
01:33:21,135 --> 01:33:22,035
I know, I know.

1997
01:33:22,035 --> 01:33:22,695
It's very difficult.

1998
01:33:24,045 --> 01:33:24,434
Thank you.

1999
01:33:24,735 --> 01:33:25,485
I appreciate it.