Aloha.

Aloha.

Right back to you, my friend.

All right.

Welcome back to the number one financial literacy podcast in the world.

That's you, that's me, and that's.

Yeah, that's what we do.

That's us.

I am rocking my higher standard merch underneath right here.

You've been wearing that sweater a lot.

Are we gonna talk about that at all?

I love.

It's so cozy.

You love that sweater?

I do love this.

Can I be honest?

What is it?

I don't love it.

Why?

You don't like the herringbone?

The herringbone center is just a weird, like, flex.

It's top man.

Is that what it is?

It is.

You haven't noticed this, but on all the covers, I actually edit the herringbone out.

It's true.

Not a sarcastic thing.

It's real.

I have noticed.

I edit it out.

Sitting next to me on my left is my partner in crime, Chris Nahibi.

And sitting next to me is my partner in fashion time or questionable fashion time is probably more appropriate.

The one and only side, Omar, everybody.

Thank you, my man.

And sitting behind the ones and twos is nobody.

Yeah, we should probably post a job.

Description or maybe mess with the jolts report.

Yeah, yeah.

We just.

We need to hire somebody to do something and just call him or her Arun a lot.

Yeah, right.

That's the job title.

Hey, a new Arun.

Come here.

Yeah.

No more new Doug.

Yeah, no more new Doug.

New Arun.

We got an important episode for everybody tonight.

One that I think is not only important to hear now, but also to learn about because it is talked about frequently and relied upon by the Fed quite, quite a bit.

We're talking jobs.

We're talking about job openings, jobs reports, Right?

Weekly jobless claims.

So I figured let's get right into it, right?

Some little bit of background here.

Jobs report attempts to measure various aspects of the labor market, Right?

People like to use it as an indicator to see how healthy the economy is.

Hold on a second.

Tea drinking guy.

Tea drinking guy.

Loosen up a little bit.

This is the tease.

Made you too much of an adult tonight.

I need you to loosen up.

Oh, is that tea with milk in that?

The starburst?

The starburst is loosening you.

Starburst.

C4, baby.

I'm gassed up.

Let's go.

I'm coming with the heat.

You're like, hey, everybody out there, let's talk about the jobs report.

Jolts are important for you in America, everybody.

It might be a good clip, but hold on.

Is this your way of Connecting with the youth.

Youth.

I don't know if you know this, say, you know, but I, I'm always connected to the youths.

Are you?

No.

Is that how you do it?

That's, that's not how we do it.

So what the jobs report, what it gives out, the type of information, what people look for is job creation.

Right.

The unemployment rate, obviously, average hours worked and the amount of money earned.

Which jobs report you talking about?

We're talking about the one the Bureau of Labor Statistics puts out the first Friday of every month.

So to make it even more complicated topic, Even more complicated.

There's also private numbers that come out like adp.

People who privately collect this data who are in jobs adjacent functions.

Think of that as sort of like Redfin.

Right.

Like Redfin's in a data business, but it's kind of adjacent to their primary business of data collection on the side of homes.

But they also do that under the auspice of providing a service to the consumer, which gives them a reason to get data in.

ADP is no different.

They handle a lot of payroll for America.

So they have a good insight and grasp on what these things are with their resources.

But there's also the Bureau of Labor Statistics, as you mentioned, and the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Well, it's a, it's a government agency.

And without knocking anybody who happens to work for a government agency, let's just say there has been a little bit of fanfare around some of the numbers in the last year or so, particularly about how the reported numbers coming out seem to be a lot stronger than people feel like they should be.

Absolutely.

And these numbers can be revised up and down.

And unfortunately for us, these numbers are relied upon when the Fed likes to make their decisions.

Yeah.

And I should be clear.

Okay.

Typically what happens is the number comes out, Fed makes their decision, and then they're revised up or down.

And you're like, wait a minute, how is this, how is this logical process?

Exactly Right.

So think of it this way.

When jobs reports come out, if, if the data is showing that there are a lot of new jobs, there's low unemployment, and there's higher wages being earned, that comes out from the report usually translates that there's higher spending and higher economic activity going on.

Therefore, the Fed feels like there's not much we need to do right now.

Everything's very positive.

On the flip side of that.

Yeah.

So I have a fundamental problem with the Fed's barometer on this.

So it is certainly the part of the, the dual mandate of the Fed so they have an obligation to look at jobs, unemployment and job stability.

Right.

But what I will say is the Fed is disconnected to reality.

If Jerome Powell had to go out and look for a job, it's not the same as you going out and looking for a job or me going out looking for a job.

So them looking at numbers going, you know what, everything looks fine to me, I think is just the wrong way to do it.

I mean, I don't know how else to say without sounding like I'm being, you know, facetious, but you're having people who clearly make good money, who are public profile, high profile people who could get a job if they wanted to because of the high profile nature of what they're doing.

As a Fed governor, for example, sitting in a room talking about numbers of how payroll and private payroll are impacting the United States average American citizen, but they are not the average American citizen.

Right.

And we're going to get into right now on the show about why something like the jobs report is, is something that investors shouldn't be relying upon solely when making their decisions on what to invest in or where, where the Fed is really going to go.

Because it's not as predictable as just looking at the jobs report.

Because there's a lot wrong with the jobs report.

First, it's a lagging indicator.

Yep.

Like housing.

Like housing.

Right.

Number two, the headline numbers can be extremely misleading.

Okay.

Take for instance, the unemployment rate.

It doesn't include discouraged workers.

Right.

And it also doesn't include the people that are working multiple jobs.

So just because the unemployment rate is low, that doesn't take into account how overworked some people are working two, three, maybe four jobs.

And I have said in the show multiple times, and I've been, you know, kind of chastised for saying it, I believe more American workers today are working multiple jobs than ever before in history.

There's data that supports this.

There's data that's somewhat ambiguous.

The problem is the jobs data in and of itself, as you noted, is flawed.

But there are a lot of people who are doing what I call the unethical version of it, where they're working two full time jobs for two companies nine to five.

I think that's unethical as hell.

There's a lot of people who are working 9 to 5 and then working 5 to 9, you know, a second job.

And I don't think that's unethical.

There's, there's, I've been criticized a lot for saying that, particularly people who are high profile like me.

The people go, okay, we want you focus, Chris, on your job.

It's an important one on your day job.

And to that I've always kind of questioned the sentiment around it because what I would say is, is number one, it's a free economy.

If you're paying your workers well enough, right, they shouldn't feel the need to have a second job and can do things like run down hobbies.

But some workers, no matter how well you pay them, are always going to want to maximize their time and work more.

Now you could say, well, if you're a salaried employee, you should be working more at your primary job and being better and hope for promotion.

Okay?

But that doesn't allow some of the mental break that isn't theirs that they own.

There's just, there's just this weird logical fallacy.

Like you know, hey, if you're a doctor, that's all you are, why can't you be a doctor who also has a business at night that produces medical supplies?

Absolutely.

You'd go, that makes sense.

He's a doctor who produces medical supplies.

Why can't you be a hobbyist who makes, I don't know, miniature train trains and sells them on Etsy?

If you like building trains and you have a side business selling on Etsy and you do that at night, does that mean you're a terrible doctor?

Yeah, because for them too, it's not even about the money.

It's about the love, love of the sport.

So I think there's, there's people who fall into both camps, right?

Passion or need.

But that being said, there's nothing wrong with it as long as you are doing your job well.

Absolutely.

So back to this.

Also another problem with the jobs report.

It ignores key industry and geographic trends.

Okay.

The national jobs report doesn't reflect regional disparities or sector specific trends.

Think no different in 2023 when we had all those tech layoffs, one after another after another after another.

But the jobs report was saying that the economy and jobs are booming, but it ignored the fact that it was tech heavy.

Even you know, the financial sector as well.

Right?

I know banks were laying off a lot of people too.

Right?

So it ignores those, those, those trends as well.

And lastly, there's alternative employment data that can provide more complete, a more complete picture.

Like what?

Like what we're going to get into tonight.

Oh, look at you.

Look at the Segway game, the sec, the alley to your oop.

Well, I'll take your oopsies.

Okay.

I'll take the oopsies.

I want to preface a little bit of tonight's structured show with.

I am not going to give you my opinion as much as I'm going to give you both sides to an argument.

And what Said has done is given us a lovely little setup for what I think is an interesting job conversation, particularly in light of what's been happening in Washington D.C.

we're going to use this as a proxy for a bigger picture of how things can and will change.

We're going to spend a little time talking about jobs, then employment and how jobs can trickle down to employment.

Again focusing on Washington D.C.

and we're going to talk a little bit about the narrative like we talked about on episode 269 and.

269.

268.

I think it was 268.

8.

Yeah, we talked about narratives in economics.

We're gonna talk about that a little bit and we're gonna see how the data can be interpreted both ways.

And I do have a sentiment there which I will share towards the end.

And then we're gonna get into.

Well, there's been a lot of fanfare about returning to office.

Now a fun little, little abbreviated version of rto.

Baby, are you rtoing returning to office?

Yeah, I'm an rto.

Yeah.

Yeah.

First it was WFH and now you're rtoing.

I've got a sentiment towards the end which I'll share, which always gets me in trouble whenever I do that.

We're gonna play some audio this episode.

Two different perspectives, but I, I think valuable kind of to set a baseline.

And then we're going to talk a little bit about an office RTO article.

RTO or remote, where you, where your work doesn't change how happy you are in your job, but this one thing actually will.

So does it all matter?

Is the question.

And we're going to get there towards the end of the show.

I'm actually curious to see what you have to say about that.

Yeah, I've got.

My opinion on this has changed dramatically over the last three years from my seat as an executive at a public traded institution.

What I can tell you is that I monitor efficiency.

Productivity.

And those things are very different numbers today than they once were, I think industry wide, I think business wise.

And the problem for me has always been one that was addressed by Elon Musk.

And I'll kind of give you a little bit of flavor before we get into this stuff.

Elon Musk said, I don't know a way to make it fair.

People who are building cars need to physically be here.

People who are designing cars, you know, may be able to draw their stuff from home.

Right.

So I don't know how to make it fair and equitable.

There's also an argument to be made.

The guy who signed up to build the car kind of knew what he was getting into.

I mean, Tesla is also notorious for hiring people remotely.

And then two.

Two months later, letting.

Letting them go.

Like you hired me to be remote.

Well, and there's also the new question.

Is return to office really a way to backdoor layoffs?

Yes.

Absolute force.

Are you passively, aggressively pushing people out by.

By knowing that they're not going to relocate from Austin, Texas, to, you know, your.

Your corporate home office in California?

Absolutely.

Yeah.

So before we give away too much, let's get into it and let's dial in some conversation here.

Unemployment.

This is from the Chart of the Day, one of my favorite visual representations of data.

This is the big.

How big of a nerd I am.

When I signed back on to Instagram or when I got my Instagram account for this show, it was like the third page I followed.

Chart of the day.

Chart of the day.

I don't think you really need to tell us that for us to know that you're nerdy.

Yeah, I'm just saying.

The Herringbone.

The herringbone gives that away.

Gives it away.

Yeah.

I mean, name a rapper you've seen wear Herringbone recently.

I'll wait.

A lot of them.

No, that's not.

And that's not a rapper you've named.

Okay, I'm gonna pull it up.

I'm pulling up.

And it's gonna.

What are you gonna Google?

It's gonna be rapper.

Yeah, it's gonna make the thumbnail.

I encourage you to see that.

Unemployment spikes in Washington D.C.

as Trump and Musk begin efforts to shrink the government.

You've probably heard that Doge, the Department of Government Efficiency has been active.

So active that we've seen a pretty palpable uptick in unemployment in the Washington, D.C.

area.

President Donald Trump's moves to fire thousands of federal government workers have coincided with a surge in jobless claims in Washington, D.C.

that could get worse as the efforts intensify.

Keep in mind they've only just begun.

Since Trump has taken office, nearly 4,000 workers in the city have filed for unemployment insurance as part of the surge that began at the start of the new year, according to Labor Department figures.

Not adjusted for seasonal factors.

In all, just shy of 7,000 claims have been filed in the six weeks of the new year, or about 55% more than in prior six week periods.

Fillings filings rose 1780.

So 1,780 for the week ending February 8th, a 36% increase from the prior week and more than four times around the same period in 2024.

So you're really only talking about 7,000 claims, which isn't a big number when you consider the amount of people being laid off at large companies in the last couple of years.

And we didn't see a dent in unemployment.

Yet here we are with a very palpable uptick in, in unemployment in this specific geographic area, Washington, D.C.

and to.

The, I guess as an opposition to some.

The jobs report that's viewed as a lagging indicator.

The weekly jobless claims, if you're paying attention to that.

I remember back during the great financial crisis, this is the key metric or key data point that people were referring to and looking at because in real time it was letting you know how many people are applying for unemployment.

Yeah.

So that's about as non lagging as you're going to get from what is a lagging indicator.

I compare that to if you're monitoring homes, it's new listings, which is a pretty active real time data thing you can just pull versus home sales.

Home sales just take longer to get the information.

So at least that's my best proxy if you're.

If you're a real estate person.

Anyway.

So of course this news made the rounds on social media.

X being probably the most notable from one of our favorite pages, the Kubisi letter.

Wow.

Starts off like that.

I always, I always imagine Christopher Walken, YouTube.

You have to.

Wow.

Yeah.

Wow.

Washington D.C.

no, I mean it's good.

You're putting a little much on it.

A little heavy.

Yeah, yeah.

Put too much mustard on it.

The economy, I can't do it.

Whatever.

Mustard on the bean.

Why is that your thing?

All the.

All night long you've been saying the mustard thing.

Okay, I caught, I caught.

My kids and my wife were watching one of those videos where they were trying, trying to learn this, that dance move that he was doing at the beginning of the show and Adam and Arya were trying to learn how to do it.

He did a dance with that.

He was just moving around.

No, that, yeah, the two step that he does when he comes out to that song.

Yeah.

You know the two step I want to do.

I want to do that one where you look like you're hovering.

That's the coolest thing, right?

That's the cool.

If you could do that, that's a really cool part.

I saw an Asian girl on social media.

She must have been maybe nine or ten did it so well.

She looked like she was hovering.

I, I really, I, I tried to see it every time.

I can't, I can't see it.

I can't.

It looks like they're floating.

Yeah.

The entire time.

It's impressive.

Yeah.

I just imagine myself practicing and then my wife catching me like, what are you doing?

She could be doing something else.

Plus, we know gravity ain't working in your favor.

It ain't working, bro.

You don't have a physique of a nine year old Asian girl.

I probably can't float either, so make sure any better?

Wow.

Washington D.C.

's economy looks like 2008.

That's not a good Christopher Walken.

Unemployment filings in Washington D.C.

just surged a plus 36% in one week to three times the 2024 average over the last six weeks.

Unemployment filings are up 55% now above 2008 levels.

How bad will it get?

Let us explain.

And well, if you want to go down the rabbit hole, you know me in holes.

I like going down them.

Do you?

Yeah.

So here's an interesting chart where he points out all the information in his chart, which is a kind of a broader version of the one that was on the charter chart of the day.

And he has all sorts of narrative notes in it which I can put right next to me right now.

But he goes in deep.

Since January 20, over 4,000 federal employees have filed first time unemployment claims in Washington D.C.

furthermore, the year to date total has hit nearly 7,000 as Chart of the Day suggested.

That's a whopping 55% increase over the previous six week period.

Last week alone claims surged 36%.

That is a huge baseline.

But let's get into where we are today to put this in perspective.

A similar chart again next to me here showing Washington D.C.

jobless claims back in 2008.

Okay.

Weekly jobless claims are now at 1780, or nearly 15 higher than the past.

The peak seen after the 2008 financial crisis is higher than that.

Again, just, just Washington dc.

So don't nobody go, oh my God, freak out.

Don't, don't do that.

This is just Washington dc.

A lot of people there have been centrally, centrally focused.

Okay, so, but the key impacted the.

Key thing that comes to my mind just because, because of how much we've gone into all this on Our show is we've unpacked and discovered.

Yeah.

That a lot of the positivity surrounding the jobs report has been it being propped up by government jobs.

Is it safe to assume that this is.

I know this is Washington, D.C.

are a majority of these jobs government jobs?

Yes, I think so.

Right?

Yes, absolutely.

So now you got.

Almost all of them are government jobs.

So now you have to wonder, okay, well now if the government jobs or government adjacent.

Or government adjacent jobs are no longer propping up the jobs report, what's going to happen?

And is Jerome Powell going to have to change his tune a little bit?

Well, let's zoom out a little bit more.

Let's go out a little farther.

We already know from the last episode that inflation has gone up the last four prints.

Right.

The last four months.

September, October, November, December up.

Right.

Leading us to a 3% print, last one.

So it's going the wrong way incrementally, but going the wrong way.

You have unemployment now in a questionable status because if government jobs like Gino, we're propping things up and those government hirings are going to stop because Doge is twerking.

Plus they're also laying off other people as well.

Right.

So it's going to go a full swing the other way at some point in time.

We in that, I would say probably the next two to three months, we should see a very palpable change nationwide in job claims and unemployment.

So Washington D.C.

is allegedly a proxy, but some of this stuff can be manipulated.

Some of the data we're talking about here may be used to imply something that isn't necessarily correlated, but sounds rationally connected, really.

So the Khabisi letter A page I like, you know this.

Right.

They go on to say, furthermore, as we noted in a recent thread, the rise in unemployment is coming with widespread home sales.

It's logical, right?

People in Washington D.C.

are selling their homes because they got.

They're unemployed now and they're going to move.

I don't want to Live in Washington D.C.

i want to move to the suburbs.

Expensive living here.

I don't know if I'm going to the job.

I was in the FDIC and I don't want to work there anymore.

I want to work in the private sector.

I should leave.

I mean, who knows, right?

The median home price in Washington D.C.

is down about 139,000 or 20% since November 2024 alone.

That's a big drop.

Right?

But from November to now.

Right.

That sounds huge.

Says year over year, the home listings in Washington, D.C.

metro area are up about 23% year over year, year over year.

So that looks and sounds like a really meaningful change in such a short time.

Absolutely.

But then you start thinking, wait a minute, wait a minute.

Let's put our logical brain on, maybe get out some tinfoil, put on a little hat.

Okay.

You know, do people really sell their homes that fast?

What do you mean?

After losing their jobs?

Yeah.

This is saying that the median home price in Washington, D.C.

is down 139,000 or 20%.

But we know we've all sold homes.

Even if you sell it quickly, talking 30 days.

30, 45 days.

Yeah, right.

And Doge just got started about 60 days ago.

I mean, are you really seeing that meaningful of a change based solely on jobs in that short of a time?

I mean, it's hard to say.

Right, because we know, we know the number of how many people out there, you know, don't have a savings account larger than a thousand dollars.

No, I hear you, but listings going up.

Okay, great.

But actual home prices going down.

I don't know, dude.

But we all.

And we also know that the number of days homes are staying on, online, on the market before they're sold, that's also going up.

Okay, well, just hold on to that thought.

I got some data for you to contemplate, which may change your perspective coming up.

Okay, so the community letter goes on and say, but it's going to get even worse.

Okay, here we are now throwing a narrative, and I like to be slated.

He doesn't have an agenda here, but he has a clear underlying belief that, that there, there should be more coming.

And I.

Look, I, I get it.

I think there's an asset bubble out there.

Stock market, real estate, cryptocurrency, for that matter.

Everything has an asset bubble.

Right now.

I think everything's overvalued.

But does that mean that this data.

Data suggests there's going to be a break anytime soon?

I don't know.

It might be a stretch.

The New York Post just reported that Doge is preparing to lay off 15,000 IRS employees, which sounds like a lot, but they just hired 87,000.

We just.

They just hired from the Inflation Reduction Act, Right?

Yeah.

Wow.

Wow.

Yeah.

15,000 employees is about 8.5 times the number of unemployment claims seen last week.

These layoffs are expected to come as soon as next week.

And this was as of February 16th.

So two days ago.

Today is the 18th of February.

Happy belated Valentine's Day to everybody out there.

Yeah.

Hopefully you spend it with a Loved one.

I love you.

Feel sorry for the listener that didn't spend it with a loved one.

You didn't say I love you back.

That's odds.

Certain things are obvious.

Christopher, I want to hear you say it.

No.

Come on.

No.

You know it's there.

Look me in the eyes.

You know it's there.

Say it.

You know it's there.

No.

Don't know it's there.

I love you too.

Oh.

End the show.

All right, so the community letter goes on.

Furthermore, the data does not include the 3,600 Health and Human Services employees laid off by Doge on Friday.

Last week.

The Kabisi letter expects first time unemployment filings to surge again well above the 2,000 this week.

This could put D.C.

unemployment claims at more than 30% above the post 2008 peak.

Next, add in the President Trump's offer to buy about 2 million federal workers out to resign.

Right.

There are currently about 2.7 million people who work for the US government estimated.

The estimates show about 5 to 10% of employees will take that offer.

They technically wouldn't be unemployed until September of 2025 under that seven month buyout period.

Oh, that's severance package.

Yeah.

So let's just say a modest 5% take the offer, which would mean about 135,000 federal employees.

That's a lot.

Okay.

That's a huge number.

I don't care how you look at it.

Approximately 15% of the federal employees currently work in Washington D.

So this means an additional 2250 employees claims will come after the buyout in Washington D.C.

alone.

Alone in Washington D.C.

wow.

It's a lot.

Yeah, it's a lot.

So in theory, this could just be the beginning.

He goes on to say the Khabis letter, that this also shows that real estate meltdown in Washington D.C.

is just getting started.

Since November 2024, about 5, 000 homes have been listed for sale, well above the average.

We expect 10,000plus homes to be listed for sale in the coming months.

Inventory is already up 23 year over year like we talked about.

So that's a lot in one narrow period of time.

For some of you driving, you're probably pulling over the side of the road.

You know, especially if you're in Washington D.C.

yeah.

Taking it a bit of an emotional stance.

Breathe it out, you know.

Yeah.

Because you got to consider, right.

Like if you, if you have one of those jobs where you're on the fence and you don't know the direction of the company and maybe you Feel like your job's at.

At risk here.

You're like, maybe I got to sell this thing now before it becomes too late.

Yeah.

And look, I.

I'm.

I'm going to try to measure my words here so I don't get myself in my usual amount of trouble.

Your job is one of those things, when it goes well, you don't think about it.

Unfortunately.

Unfortunately.

And you don't think about employment or.

Or work or plan B.

You just do your job.

And if you love your job, you dive in.

You just love it.

You get to work, you're happy, you got a rhythm.

You get up, you get your coffee, you go number two.

You settle in for the day, you do your typing, you go to lunch, come back another number two if you're lucky.

Yeah.

You know.

Yeah.

You got your talks at the water.

Cooler, your people you see every day.

And then nothing brings employees together like mutual hatred for another employee.

You always have that employee in the office that you hate, and you look at each other and you're like.

Yeah.

I mean, hate's a little.

Hate's a little strong.

You severely dislike.

Yeah.

Yeah.

You don't like their work ethic.

Yeah.

There's always that one guy in your office or girl who's always happy all the time, and you have to hate that person.

Or the person that doesn't cover their food in the microwave.

Yeah.

Or the one that brings fish.

Why do you bring fish to work?

Don't bring fish to work.

Honestly.

Yeah.

That's gotta be.

That's just a universal understanding.

Don't bring fish to work.

Right.

If you bring fish to work.

Okay.

Yes.

And you microwave it.

Yeah.

That's just minus 10.

Yeah.

And also, like, if I'm down the hall, don't hold the door open for me.

Don't.

Don't force me to have to run.

Come on.

Don't.

Don't be that person.

Just.

I can open the door for myself.

I appreciate you.

Thank you.

So I once had a boss, and he remained nameless.

He had parking under the building, and he.

The building went straight up the elevator.

Right.

But all the rest of us parked in general pop.

Way out in the parking structure.

We had to walk like a.

What I affectionately called the Green Mile.

Okay.

So we had to walk a pretty.

Pretty healthy distance to the office.

And you could see it, People walking in, people walking out.

But he drove all the way into the building, straight up the elevator.

I'd catch him every once in the elevator going up.

He didn't know who I was.

Didn't know my name, nothing.

Yeah, I was.

That was nobody.

I was just getting started.

And I always try to talk to him, and he would not respond to me.

So I just made it a constant conscious effort.

Every time I saw him, I was going to talk to him.

Yeah.

You know, so one day we're in the elevator, and I'm literally carrying on weeks of conversations with this guy when I see him, hey, man, good see you again.

Yeah, he's not talking to me, and I'm like, so last time, what would.

Oh, yeah, my son, right?

Like, we.

Like, I was.

You know, and I would just carry these conversations on, and you can just tell every time he saw me, he was just biting down, going, like, don't.

Don't speak to me.

Right?

One day he looks at me and goes, chris, honestly, I don't care.

And I go in my head, I go, now I'm talking to this guy everywhere.

Every time I see him, multiple times.

I broke him.

Yeah, I got him.

You're gonna remember me.

He hated me.

Yeah.

Hated me.

I used to do that same time.

Oh, you're gonna.

You're gonna.

Oh, God, I can't even say the story without you making fun of me.

It's a dad story.

And then you're gonna be like, oh, God, we get it.

You're the world's greatest dad.

Oh, God, you can't even preface dad stories now.

I can't even.

Yeah, you got me, like, hyper thinking about whether you're gonna make fun of me or not for this.

I used to do the same tactic when I used to go pick up my.

My kids at the Montessori, and I would ask them, how were they today?

Knowing that they did not pay attention.

It was just way too many kids for you to just remember every detail about my son or my daughter today.

But I knew that they wouldn't.

And I'm gonna be that same dad that comes in tomorrow, and I'm gonna ask the same question, and we're gonna keep going through this awkward cycle until you start paying attention.

And I wasn't mean about it.

Hey, how did Adam do.

How did Ari do today?

Oh, you know, they.

They were fine.

I was like, oh, okay, cool.

I mean, it was.

Everything okay?

And I go, yeah, everything's fine.

I was like, okay, great.

And I'll just keep coming back the next day.

Adam and Ari.

Now you're forced to have an answer for me by the time I come the next day.

See, my wife.

My wife is not a business person, but she has Some skills that would make her an incredible business person.

She knows everybody's names, talks to everybody.

Right.

And one of the.

I'm.

I'm not.

I've often lamented that I think in my older age I've figured out that I have a.

A wee bit of autism.

And I'm not even saying that sarcastically.

I know it sounds that way.

I know that I'm wired differently than most people.

Like, I don't crave companionship in, like, people around me.

I've been working in the studio late at nights, listening to, like, rain music in the jungles and stuff.

Like, just calming stuff.

Right.

Just grinding out work.

I'm totally happy.

I've been tired, you know, but I'm totally happy.

Right.

But you do understand, you do can appreciate the fact that a little bit of, you know, social hours.

Good for you.

No, And I love, I love being social when I'm in the environment.

But getting me that, getting me there is not easy sometimes.

And part of it's just I'm.

I'm.

I'm just weird.

Like, I've got weird mental thoughts around it.

And I'm not saying I'm crazy, but I'm not saying I'm not crazy.

Right.

Makes sense.

My wife, on the other hand, knows and talks to everyone.

And when you're a married woman, it can come off a little flirty.

There's weird.

There's weird things, and my wife just doesn't even recognize it because she just doesn't think this way.

But the proverbial upside is, is like the, the teachers at all the schools all talk to my wife a lot.

She know.

She makes friends with everybody at the park.

The entire community knows her.

And there'll be people like, I'm like, how the hell do you know that person?

And she's like, oh, this one time we spoke, blah, blah, blah.

But she knows them by name.

She knows her kids, ask how they're going on, knows what they do for a living.

And you're like, this is crazy.

Yeah.

Like, all this mental bandwidth you could use for, like, the power of good, you know?

Well, she is, she's.

She.

She knows the, the community that you guys are in and the, the community that her kids being raised in.

If I had to highlight one skill that I'm very, very terrible with, it's networking.

I don't actively go out and fake fake interest with people to curry political faith.

Right.

Yeah.

Right.

Like, I just, I don't.

If I don't like you, like, you will know.

Yeah, well, well, there's that, but there's also.

You want people to come around and see you for the hard work that you're putting in versus you going out there like, hey, look at me.

Look at all this great work.

But life doesn't work that way.

Life doesn't work that way.

And the especially.

Especially in this space that we're in right now, like, you really have to put yourself.

We have to put ourselves out there.

You remember when we started this, how awkward it was for you?

Oh, it's.

I mean, it still is.

You weren't there in my.

My six month initial awkward phase where I was like, recording, stopping.

I know I was starting recording.

I listened to a couple episodes and I was like, this is too awkward.

This isn't Christopher.

Yeah, it's.

It's difficult, man.

But talking to yourself for an hour, that's.

That's a real talent.

Those radio hosts that can do that and just go on and on and on and on.

It takes a little bit of ego.

Like, you have to think that people want to hear what you have to say.

Right.

And I.

And you and I are both this way where I'm too introspective.

I'm like, why am I.

Not only.

Not even.

Not only people want to hear what you have to say.

You got to believe that you are absolutely right about it.

Well, you know, I'm an arrogant prick, so.

I mean, right.

Like that, that takes.

You're right.

It does take a little bit of an ego.

Yeah.

What does that say about me?

So many questions.

So many skus.

So many skus.

Most deaf.

Most deaf.

What did you.

I missed most?

Death from acting.

Sixteen blocks.

Sixteen blocks was great.

I'll never forget the first time I saw that movie.

It was on cable.

I was in Hawaii.

I was supposed to leave the room and go outside.

It was raining outside, but I was still gonna go, you know, I was in Hawaii.

I got sucked in.

It was really good.

Yeah, Yeah, I did.

He's sneaky talented.

He's got the same level of Jamie Foxx if you want.

He's just not.

He doesn't put himself out there like that.

He also went crazy.

He was running around with an international like, citizen of the world passport.

Did he?

Yeah.

Left the country, renounced his citizenship, came back.

Oh, it's a whole thing, man.

That's a whole thing.

And he always talks like he's drunk.

Oh, yeah, Yeah.

I don't.

Under the influence.

Yeah.

When you listen to Drake, it's.

Makes me want to go shopping.

So many skills that's true.

Yeah.

Yeah.

So, all right, for those of you who don't know Washington, D.C.

there's really a West Virginia, Maryland, Virginia, D.C.

kind of major metropolitan area.

And if you live in Southern California, like, wait a minute, how can that all be like one area?

Well, it's all hyper close to one another and you can kind of drive each area pretty, pretty close.

But it's probably less time it takes you to get across Los Angeles most days.

So that is really the major market.

And we talk about Washington, D.C.

specifically.

We're talking about a very, very niche, small community relative to what I would call other major cities.

Get me wrong, it's a huge political environment.

It's got a lot of value.

It's a huge city.

But is it really as large?

And if it's not as large, is the data skewed?

Because people there are impacted a lot more than people would otherwise be impacted other places.

So let's take this narrative and reframe it a little bit.

Okay.

Lance Lambert, another one of my ex follows left.

Active inventory for sale in Washington, Arlington, Alexandria, Alexandria, D.C.

virginia, Maryland, West Virginia metro area is about 33% below pre pandemic 2019 levels.

Right.

Another chart here.

Active inventory for sale in the District of Columbia is plus 67% above, below.

Pre pandemic 2019 levels.

Above, below.

It says above.

Below.

I don't know why it's not me.

Right.

I can read that it's above.

Yeah, above.

So clearly the entire picture is still below.

But this isolated region in this area is higher.

But if it's still 33, 33% below pre pandemic levels, but that one area, Washington, D.C.

is above 67% above, then I would say there hasn't been an active enough swing in this major metropolitan area for the Washington, Arlington, Alexandria area to really be a meaningful change that we should freak out about.

But I have a chart for you which I think is very telling, again from my boy Lance, AKA Lambs.

US Home prices as measured by Zillow Home Price value index fell 0.5%, one half of 1% between December 2024 reading and the 1-20-25 reading.

Year over year.

However, it's up 2.6% since the 2022 peak.

It's up 1.3% since March of 2020.

It's up 42.9%.

Kachow, for those of you who are Disney fans, but the reason why this is important is there is a chart attached to this particular post.

And on the chart, if you're driving don't worry, Daddy's got you.

It's the monthly, monthly shift in U.S.

home prices, all right?

And it goes year by year, and it goes January through December every single year.

And it's really important to note that there's a lot of blue, which means positive home price action.

And there's a lot of.

Call it what I would call grayish or like light red, where it's really negligible, and there's some dark red where it's gone down, and there's very, very little dark red going from 2000 to 2025, meaning there not a lot of home prices going down.

But the January column on the far left of this chart, which goes from years 2000 to all the way 2025, because you got one month in January's data reporting, it's almost always slightly negative.

It's true.

So for us to be freaking out about negative home price values that occur in January, I would say that's probably irrational.

And I'm going to be the guy who's very detailed here, because I want to drive the point home, right?

You like it when I drive points, right?

All the way home.

All the way home.

Only when you drive them all the way home.

And home is not a euphemism, right?

Not a euphemism.

Just to be clear.

Not a euphemism under the new context of this show.

There was an old context.

Yes, there was.

I thought it was just a paradigm shift in the language, not the intention.

Okay, I didn't get that memo.

Yeah.

All right.

January 20th.

Sorry.

2020.

You're 20.

I'm sorry.

January, 2000, zero, zero, flat.

Okay.

2001, minus 0.1%.

2002, same.

2003, same.

2004, flat.

0%.

2005, 0.2% increase.

2006, negative 0.1%.

2007, expecting a massive number, you'd be massively wrong.

It's down 0.7%.

Less than 1%.

Down.

2008.

Okay, when was the great financial crisis?

2007.

2008.

Okay, so this is where people should have their ears perked up.

2008, down 1.3% in January.

There you go.

Okay, so that.

Wow.

Really?

Oh, okay.

But, Chris, 2009 is gonna be way worse.

That's the height it takes.

It's a lagging indicator.

Down 1.6% in January.

And for the record, in the last 25 years, that is the worst January ever.

There you go.

Okay, so 2010, down 0.8%.

2011, down 1.2%.

2012, down 0.8%.

2013.1% down.

2014, down 0.3%.

2015, down 0.4%.

2016.

0, 0, flat.

2017, down 0.2.

2018, down 0.1.

2019, down 2.

2020, flat.

2021.

Our first gain, 0.5% up one half of one point.

The largest gain in the last 25 years in 2022.

1.4% up.

January, of course, these are all January months, just to be clear.

2023, down 0.9%.

Almost down a full 1%.

2024, down 0.4%.

2025, down 0.5%.

So for perspective, not seeing anything that I'm freaking out about here.

Yeah.

Over the last 25 years, we're just slightly below the average.

Yeah.

Slightly below.

A hair.

A hair.

Right.

So small.

Little tiny hair.

Right.

So this is definitely one of those instances where seasonality is at play here.

We just got.

Everybody just got through the holidays.

But Lance isn't talking about seasonality.

Right.

As a matter of fact, this whole headline that you're seeing.

Unemployment spikes in Washington, D.C.

as Trump and Musk begins efforts, blah, blah, you know, it's scary.

This is scary stuff.

Scary narrative.

The Kobisi letter.

Wow.

In his walking voice.

Wow.

Wow.

Yeah.

Wow.

Owen Wilson.

Yeah.

Anyway, anyway, yeah, the Khabisi letter goes off saying, oh, my God, housing's gonna.

He goes down this whole rabbit hole.

I mean, I read it to you.

I read, you know, parts of it.

He really believes that this is going to be a huge housing impact.

But what I would say is, is, well, the data doesn't really seem to show that.

Again, this is a lagging indicator.

And he could be, you know, saying, hey, February, March is when you're going to see the most of it.

That's what he suggested.

But as of right now, there isn't anything meaningful.

So let's go on to one of my favorite housing pundits, right?

Logan from Housing Wire.

I love Logan for what he is.

And his hair.

His hair is fantastic.

Well, he is.

He's a hardcore housing fanboy.

Okay.

All things housing.

We've had.

We've had some disagreements.

He loves calling out the trolls.

I have been one of the trolls and I respect him immensely because he has never deviated from his position.

And on this case, in this instance, I agree with him wholeheartedly.

He's right.

You agree with Logan?

Yeah, it's painful because he's got fantastic hair, way better than mine.

So I want to be negative just because he doesn't deserve hair like that.

And he gets more TV airtime than you.

The burden of the crown is heavy on that man.

Yeah, he does get more airtime than me because he's willing to take a hyper aggressive stance that I'm not willing to take.

That's the thing.

Yeah.

At least.

And nobody knows I'm gonna cuss or not.

You know, it's always a toss up.

You're a loose cannon.

If you're gonna roll the dice, you're probably gonna get.

They're gonna need to see three or four months of this.

I don't think that's gonna.

They're gonna go, well, Chris, it's out there.

You know, it's out there.

It's out there.

Yeah.

So Since World War II, there have been many recessions.

That is a fact.

There have been many recessions.

Okay.

But only one significant housing price crash.

Homeowner balance sheets and cash flow have never looked better.

True.

And FICO score data has remained strong for the past 14 years.

Is that true?

Yeah, it's true.

Cash flow has never looked better.

Cash flow is everything around me.

Cream, dollar, dollar, bill, job.

Oh, dang.

No, I don't think so.

Come on.

That can't be.

That can't be true.

Just, just given where credit card debt.

Is alone, the data suggests that that is true.

I refuse to believe it.

Sorry, I am.

The delinquencies are up.

Bankruptcies are around the corner.

We know this.

We've reported on this.

I didn't put it in the show.

But there has been a pal.

Uptick in consumer delinquency.

Yeah.

There's been a palpable decline in consumer spending.

And there's been some pretty aggressive increases in middle market and small balance businesses in their default rates.

We had that whole episode about a month ago where it was my.

Yeah, but did this just last month.

I had, I had a segment and I told you so segment.

Okay.

I know you want to toot your own horn a little bit here.

No, you were tooting my horn and I allowed you to toot my horn.

I'm pretty sure I would remember tooting your horn on the show.

I allowed you to toot my horn.

Okay.

And it's going to be a hard.

Conversation to do, so we're just going to have this other way now.

Okay.

And, and, and I did say I told you so.

So.

You know how I don't sleep much?

You don't sleep very much.

One of the problems that I've been having recently is I'm doing all this construction in the studio space, right?

And I come home like drywall nights.

I am filthy.

Yeah.

And I'll shower, but I still feel filthy.

Yeah.

Like I'm nasty.

It's like in your pores.

It's coming out of your nose.

And I'm wearing like a respirator.

But it's in my ear holes, my eye holes, my nose holes, all the holes, Mouth holes, all the holes.

It's coming out of your pores, Right?

It's in my hairs.

Yeah, it's in all the places.

Right, right.

And the other night I was also working with insulation, but I thought I was being smart.

I went with Rockwool instead of fiberglass.

And Rockwool is made out of, you know, metal and some other stuff, but it's not toxic like fiberglass.

I figured you and I are gonna be that we can't die of cancer.

Won't cut you up as much.

Apparently I have an allergic reaction to Rockwool and my body started overheating and I started getting red patches.

So post showers when I realized it.

Oh, my gosh.

So I'm in bed, I can't sleep.

I start reading articles.

And I've read all the articles because I'm trying to stay up to date with a higher standard for you people.

For the people.

For you, the people, right?

I'm like, it's 2, 3 o'clock in the morning.

I think about texting you and I'm like, nah, I don't want his wife to know about us, so you should always text me.

Yeah, I just.

I was like, nah, it's.

It's too late.

So I'm just gonna read something interesting.

And I read an article and it had this like, nice looking older woman, probably in her 60s, talking about how she had to lock herself in her bedroom because she was afraid she'd have sex with somebody.

And now.

Okay, now I'm interested.

Right?

Yeah, That's a good hook.

And apparently this all started when she went downstairs one morning for breakfast and her husband comes downstairs and he's like, hey, babe, how you doing?

Right?

She's like, why are you grinning?

And he's like, oh, last night was fantastic.

She's like, what?

What are you talking about?

And he goes, you know, you know, you know, that's great.

Oh.

And she's like, I don't remember.

I don't remember any of that.

And he's like, what do you mean you don't remember?

Like you were talking to me.

It was, you know, it was great, right?

And she's like, I have no idea what you're talking about.

This, this.

She always had, like, a little bit of sleepwalking and stuff, but she thought she was crazy.

So they set up a camera in.

Their bedroom because it's happened over multiple times.

Well, yeah, he had said that, that it was not uncommon.

And she's like, what are you talking about?

So that there's a video and she basically wakes up, she approaches him, engages him, and is very active in this video.

So much so that she didn't even recognize herself.

She goes and sees a therapist and finally finds a doctor.

Apparently there is a very narrow slope of humanity that has like, some type of narcoleptic, sexual, like, thing.

And because she can't remember it, she doesn't know.

She, like, locks herself in her bedroom because she's afraid when people spend the night.

She doesn't want to, like, you know.

Be seen how many people are spending the night.

Well, you know, at some point you got to have a disclosure, Right.

She said that she was afraid to go on trips, on vacations.

Like, she doesn't know what she doesn't know.

She doesn't know what she's capable of.

Yeah.

Oh, boy.

And.

And apparently, like, for her, this particular type of disorder, it's always sexual in nature, you know, and she doesn't know in the moment what she's thinking.

It's imagine like on severance, you have like an Innie and an Audi, and you don't know what the Audi's thinking.

You don't know anything about the innie's thinking.

She doesn't what her.

And he's thinking, the level of restraint.

That I'm showing right now, I'm currently.

Showing right now is impressive.

I know you don't want to read the article because you don't read stuff like that, but I will send you the article.

Just in the worst case of a scenario, you need to reference something.

Yes.

You want to read or nothing.

Right.

All right, so let's make a pivot here.

I.

I think.

Excuse me.

I've been sick for, like, two weeks.

The point that I'm trying to drive home with a lot of the narrative is, is the data certainly suggests there's been an uptick.

Sure.

Yeah.

True.

Is that uptick meaningful or is it seasonal?

The question mark is still out there.

Is there more on the horizon?

Yeah, probably.

Does that mean it's foregone conclusion that we are in a recession and DC Is a catalyst?

No, but the headlines will read that way.

The headlines will absolutely make you Think.

That way that will make you think that we're on the cusp of a recession?

I think so, because I mean it's a sensational detail.

There's a lot of politicism involved with Doge and there's a lot of people who are following it for ulterior reasons.

Not necessarily about jobs concern, just about they want to over politicize everything.

So they want to make.

Are they coming out with statements?

I haven't been seeing any statements from Doge saying we're laying off this, this many employees from the irs.

There's an official X page now, which makes sense because you know, Elon Musk involvement, but I haven't seen any official statements if there are.

But how do you justify, where do you come up with these numbers on how many people you're going to lay off?

Oh, I mean Elon posts the stuff like Active, he posted.

There's, there's a huge number that you'd be stunned at going through IRS and Social Security data.

And Social Security data.

The, the death field is marked to false.

So people that are 140 years old, they have like these bands of like 100 to 110, 110 to 120.

There's a whole like swath of swath of people in 140 year old category who show they're not dead in receiving Social Security.

Like thousands of people.

And obviously nobody's 140 years old.

What?

Yeah, lots of questions.

Brother got questions.

Yeah, but he posted stuff to his X feed.

Yeah, see this is the problem also with somebody like Elon.

He's, he's trolled so hard, so hard on his, on his own platform, on his own platform, on his own feed that you're like, is this a troll or is this, is this.

Can you imagine paying billions of dollars to buy a platform that then makes fun of you?

I mean, that's weird.

It's weird, right?

Very, very like you like.

Can you imagine being like the boss of a company where everybody hates you and makes fun of you?

Think you're about to get into one.

Yeah, that was, I saw that segue you were trying to go with here.

Yeah, it's hard.

He's very hard to hate though.

Jamie Dimon is in a lot of ways.

Yeah.

Jamie Dimon is like a, a political figure, celebrity.

And he is the most prominent banker.

He's the CEO of JP Morgan Chase.

He's a politician, bro.

He's a politician.

Let's call it what it is.

He's 6 foot 4 you would not think it when you see him.

He's incredibly charismatic.

He's got a very likable face.

Yeah.

And he, he's stern but friendly.

Like a.

Speaks very matter of fact.

Yeah.

He's like a friend.

He's never dancing around a topic.

He always.

Yeah.

Picks aside.

He's not afraid to hold your hand and make you feel loved and.

Yeah.

Yeah.

Walk you over to his side.

Let me show you why I'm right.

And then he's not afraid to, well, say things that we're not allowed to say on the show anymore.

So we're not going to, we're just.

Going to play the audio for you.

Yeah, we're just going to let Uncle Jamie to kind of give you some, some of his thoughts.

And.

Well, this came from a leaked audio where Jamie Dimon slams remote work.

And well, by slams, he went, he went hard in the paint here and.

Well, let's let the audio play.

Play and let's, let's just see how you feel about it.

Yeah.

A lot of you were on the Zoom and you were doing the following, okay.

You know, looking at your mail, sending texts to each other about what an asshole the other person is, okay?

Not paying attention, not reading your stuff, you know, and if you don't think that slows down efficiency.

Creativity creates rudeness.

And it does, okay?

And when I found out that people are doing that, you don't do that.

My goddamn meetings.

You go to a meeting with me, you got my attention.

You got my focus.

I don't bring my goddamn phone.

I'm not sending texts to people, okay?

It simply doesn't work.

And it doesn't work for creativity.

It slows down decision making.

And don't give me the shit that work from home Friday works.

I call a lot of people Friday.

They're not a goddamn person to get a hold of.

But here are the problems, okay?

And they are substantial, okay?

Which is the young generation is being damaged by this.

That means they may or may not be in your particular staff, but they are being left behind.

They're being left behind socially, ideas, meeting people.

In fact, my guess is most of you live in communities a hell of a lot less diverse than this room.

Every area should be looking to be 10% more efficient.

If I was ready to partner with 100 people, I guarantee you, if I wanted to, I could run it with 90 and be more efficient.

I guarantee you I could do it in my sleep.

And the notion these bureaucracies, I need more people.

I can't get it done.

No, because you're filling out requests that don't need to be done.

Your people are going to meetings they don't need to go to.

Someone told me to prove something as wealth management, that they had to go to 14 committees.

I am dying to get the name of the 14 committees and I feel like firing 14 chairmen of committees.

I can't stand it anymore.

Now you have a choice.

You don't have to work at J.P.

morgan.

So the people of you who don't want to work at the company, that's fine with me.

I'm not mad at you.

Don't be mad at me.

It's a free country.

You can walk with your feet.

But this company is going to set our own standards and do it our own way.

And I've had it with this kind of stuff.

And I come in, I've been working seven days a goddamn week since COVID And I come in and where's everybody else?

Here and there.

And the zooms.

And the Zooms don't show up.

And people say they didn't get stuff.

So that's not how you run a great company.

We didn't build this great company by doing that.

By doing the same semi disease shit that everybody else does.

Well, tell me how you really feel.

Unk.

Come on, Uncle Jamie.

So wait, hold on.

This was leaked audio.

This wasn't.

He wasn't.

Because he doesn't normally sound like this.

Probably on a zoom that somebody was recording.

Yeah, but look, I know this is going to be emotionally stigmatizing for some people.

Some people are very triggered by this conversation.

And I get it.

I am not going to give you my stance.

Let's get.

Let's get into why they would be triggered.

So there is a cohort of people who feel I am just as efficient working from home, if not more efficient.

I've proven it.

Over the course of when you needed me to be efficient working from home, I proved that I could be, and I was.

Yeah, but for every one of those, there's somebody who takes advantage.

Absolutely.

There are a whole cohort of people who say, hey, look, I don't pay for child care, I don't pay for travel, I don't pay for new clothes.

So I get the effect of an increased salary without an actual increased salary.

Absolutely.

There's a lot of questions around who's watching your kids?

Are you really focusing?

You know, all that stuff.

Fine.

Right.

And then, look, he's not wrong about the next generation.

I.

I don't know that I'd be In the position that I am in today, if I didn't come in and work a lot of hours, and I still work a lot of hours, I'm not.

And I, I, I hear, I don't, I don't know if he's working seven days a week.

I don't know if that's just, you know, grandstanding.

But look, I get it.

He's probably working a lot.

Does he need to work?

I don't know.

But is he in that, that core to people that we talked about in the top of the show that he's working extra hours because he's passionate, or is he working extra hours because he needs the money?

I think in order to be a CEO in his role, you got to be passionate about it.

You got to like what you do.

And he probably loves what he does.

Yeah, he loves that he can make things, make departments more efficient.

But he's not wrong that efficiency for corporate America is changing.

The landscape is changing.

And I don't really disagree with anything that he said.

You don't have to work for JP Morgan Chase.

Exactly.

Right.

I think that's what really stood out there at the end with what he said.

Here's, here's my thoughts around it, and I'm thinking, thinking this through, like, on the fly.

Okay.

I agree with you wholeheartedly.

I, too, would not be where I am at if I wasn't for me coming into the office and staying late in the office.

Right, right.

And, you know, collaborating with some of, some of my colleagues and, and them taking me on and being my mentor.

Right.

And teaching me, teaching me the way.

Okay.

Was I one of those people that was extremely efficient working from home during COVID Yeah, absolutely I was.

Was I probably working more than I ever was before?

Yes, I absolutely was.

But I can also see a world where, as you said, like, the younger generation is getting hurt by this.

Those that need to learn and need the opportunity to be in front of others.

Right.

To learn to gain that mentorship.

And how are you going to ever get yourself in a position to where you can, you know, succeed without given that opportunity, working from home?

It's never going to happen.

Yeah.

I don't know how you get those opportunities when you are, I don't know how you stand out other than if you're in a job that's much more quantifiable.

But the other problem with this, too, is I can, I can see a world 20, 30 years from now where this is the way.

Yeah, no, I, I can, too.

And I get I get that there's.

I have very mixed emotions.

Like, I personally think that we need more flexibility in the job environment.

I think part of the stigma of returning to office is that we're so rigid on when you've got to be there, when you got to leave that hybrid.

Like, schedules to me, make more sense.

And I'm not saying I work from home on Fridays.

I'm saying you're an adult.

Do your job, be present for meetings.

And when you can't be.

Because you're working from home, because you have that flexibility, just do it.

Right.

Responsibly.

Yeah.

And exactly.

Do it.

Well, I mean, the number.

The numbers on this are pretty staggering.

So remote.

Remote work peaked at 60% during the.

Pandemic, which was insane.

That's a wild number.

Has since stabilized at around 28% of.

All jobs, which is less than I thought, frankly.

I thought more.

More.

But it's really.

How much of this, too, do you think has to do with Uncle Jamie realizing, like, look, we can't have all these office buildings collapse?

Oh, dude, he's very political.

He's very sharp.

He knows that this is.

This is really at play here.

I don't think that's what's driving his.

His passion about it.

I think what's driving his passion is.

Is.

And I struggle with this.

I'm in the office every day.

I try to work from home.

I think two, maybe three weeks from the pandemic, and I just.

I just.

I just could not do it.

It just wasn't me.

And I was going back in the office when it was a ghost town, like, no one was there.

And it was weird, it was eerie.

But I.

I fall into the camp of I'm there a lot, and there are people who put in more hours than me.

100%, 100% there are.

I just think there's something meaningful about being in front of one another.

Not all the time, but you got to build a rapport with people beyond just the screen.

And I just want to know the names.

I want to know the names of people who get a call from Jamie Dimon.

Who big league him.

And don't answer.

If Jamie Diamond's calling you on Sunday while you're in church, you walk out the church.

Yeah, I feel like that was a little bit of an exaggeration.

Come on.

I don't think it is.

No one is not answering Jamie.

I don't think.

I think someone's like, ah, I thought he was at a conference.

Man, Jamie Dimon is the kind of Guy, you get a call from, like, while you're using the restroom, and you still answer, and you don't care about the echo.

I do that all the time.

If you call me and it's echoing, I am probably in a bathroom, right?

Hey, are you using the restroom?

No, man.

No.

I'll tell you straight up.

Let me ask a question just out of.

That's how committed I am to you.

I answer the call while using the restroom.

Can I ask the question?

Ask.

It's just.

It's the obvious natural progression.

What's so offensive about me talking to you?

I'm going number two.

It's a little offensive.

Why?

Because I can.

I don't want to hear what's going on.

But what if you don't hear it?

But I will hear it.

You won't hear it.

IPhone.

Microphones, bro.

You don't always go audible.

What do you mean?

You mute it?

No, you going back and forth on the mute.

There are plenty of times where you use the restroom, and it's not like a loud shouting match.

No, man, you can't do that.

Come on.

Okay, I know we were joking before.

I.

I could.

I.

I could never.

I'll hit you with the sorry, I'll call you right back.

And then I'll call you right back afterwards.

Like, and I'll open the admit, sorry, I was using the restroom.

I will take a call from time to time.

In the restroom.

Yeah.

Do people appreciate that, though, that when you hit them with the ignore text, the decline text says, sorry, I'll call you right back.

Or would you rather just have a missed call and then just, I'll call you back?

I.

I think people would appreciate it more if you said in restroom, call you right back.

But that's got to be a default.

I'm not.

I'm.

I'm not saving that as a default in restroom.

Call you right back.

How many times a day am I using the restroom?

The ambiguity.

If I'm in a meeting, I'll call you back.

Or I'm busy, I'll call you right back.

People don't like the ambiguity of not being a priority.

Uncle Jamie wants to be a priority.

Yeah.

Maybe he's gonna understand if the ladders in the way.

Maybe that's the default.

You are a priority.

I will call you right back.

I mean, maybe, but, I mean, if you're.

Hey, I'm in the restroom.

That's.

That's an undeniable reality.

Right?

You're gonna get mad at me for admitting that to you.

That should Be everybody's default.

That should be on everyone's iPhone.

Yeah.

In the restroom.

In the restroom.

Call you back.

Call you back.

Done.

Yeah, Everybody has that.

Yeah.

Then it's destigmatized.

Everybody has that, right.

You can't.

You can't even get mad.

It's one thing that if I hit you with on a call, I'll call you right back.

It's like, wait, that call is more important than my call?

To me.

Right?

My call is way more important.

I'm Jamie Dimon.

You talking to Brian Moynihan.

Right, Exactly.

I mean, it's not that important.

No, Come on.

Now.

Doing.

Yeah, yeah.

Unless you're on the.

You're on the phone with David Solomon Goldman.

Yeah.

Stud.

All right, so this from.

Well, TikTok.

Okay, I'm going to be honest with where I'm coming from here.

And I know those people are going, like, rolling their eyes.

Bear with me.

This is classy.

TikTok.

It's back.

I.

I don't.

I don't know where it's at right now.

You can download it from the Apple Store now again.

Yeah, it's a big deal.

It was a thing where, like, if you deleted it, you couldn't get it back.

Now you.

Now you can just get it back.

Yeah, you can just download it again.

Okay.

Yeah.

Never had it.

Oh, yeah.

I feel sorry for you.

I know.

I went viral and never.

You're not as cool as me, dog.

You're not gangster.

Okay.

The song is called Gangster.

That's the song that I sing.

Okay.

To you.

Thank you.

All right, so this from the Washington Post opinions page.

So.

No, I didn't know.

I didn't know that was a thing.

But they have one.

And.

Well, they have an opinions page.

Yeah.

Let's play some audio here, shall we?

All right.

You ready for it?

Give it to me.

All right.

Return to office mandates are effectively a form of a pay cut.

Now, why might that be?

Economists at Stanford have estimated that workers value the ability to work from home at least part of the time at around 8% of their pay, which, for context, for the typical worker, that's about $5,000.

A number of companies have recently announced return to office mandates.

And one way to interpret all of this is that it's effectively a backdoor layoff.

The companies themselves, for the most part, deny this.

They say, this.

This is not about reducing headcount.

This is about productivity, mentoring workers, or improving a corporate culture, all of that.

But there's reason to think that even if that's not their stated goal.

It will be, in effect.

And in fact, the Department of Government Efficiency explicitly said that their goal in requiring federal workers to come to the office full time is that there will be a wave of voluntary termination.

Now the question is, will the right people leave?

The evidence suggests that it's more likely to be women, it's more likely to be senior workers, and it's more likely to be your most skilled workers who depart.

In the wake of a return to office mandate, workers are still fighting back, obviously, but the labor market has softened a lot.

Unemployment has gone up.

Hiring has slowed quite a bit.

Now employers feel emboldened to be able to effectively cut workers compensation by calling them back to the office.

So they're willing to part ways with some of their most skilled workers.

I mean, that's some of the people, that's for sure.

But it's not all of them, certainly.

Right.

I mean, we've covered this on the show before too.

Like especially back during with all the tech layoffs.

We said that, you know, this was a way for them to, you know, effectively lay off some people without having this huge old reduction in force, which would ultimately, I mean, that was a.

One of the fastest way to, you know, increase profits and, and help your earnings.

Right?

Yeah.

But I would say, look, companies are crafty.

They will find a way to, to meaningfully take advantage of the circumstances to benefit the company.

And if this is one way to do that, if you're, if you're them and you're saying, okay, senior workers, maybe some females with kids, you know, maybe all these things happening, yeah, I'm going to lose some talented people, but I'm also going to lose some people that probably should have retired or probably shouldn't be working or probably aren't being intellectually honest with themselves about their capacity to work.

And they say, okay, that sacrifice is probably more valuable.

And yeah, I'm gonna lose some qualified good people, but overall, the company will be healthier at the end of the day.

Maybe.

I mean, maybe that's the alternative agenda.

Maybe it's just like Jamie Dimon where he's like, I just want people back in the office, you know, and do I want 10% of the people to leave?

No.

Is it a natural byproduct?

Yeah, but yeah, he knows he has a company large enough to where if people do decide to leave, people are itching and clawing to try to get in.

Okay, so let's, let's dive into some of the analytics here.

I think the numbers matter.

That was an opinion piece.

Jamie Dimon has his opinion.

He's Jamie Dimon.

I give it bigger weight than a random Washington Post opinions, but you know, okay, still a valid one.

I respect it.

All right.

But cnbc, return to office or remote where you work doesn't change how happy you are in your job.

But this, this does.

What's this site?

Do you know, you have an idea.

Your co workers, how healthy of a relationship you have with your co workers.

Being as how I'm your only co worker on this particular job.

I appreciate you.

Yeah, yeah.

I love you.

I love you too.

See, now you're saying it back.

Prompted, but still.

Okay.

Many employers have called workers back into the office in recent years, citing a need to improve productivity.

Sounds familiar.

Innovation and engagement.

And it's doubled the share of people reporting on site, according to a new report from McKenzie.

However, in person, remote and hybrid workers all report similar levels of intent to quit, burnout, effort and satisfaction.

And I want to pause there and say that I think there are a lot of people feeling this way.

And obviously the article suggests that it doesn't matter whether you're remote in person or hybrid, that they all report similar interests of intent to quit, burnout, you know, effort and satisfaction.

There's clearly an exhaustion point coming.

We've had reductions in force.

We have people working from home.

We're now back in the situation where we've had unemployment starting to get impacted.

Wages have not kept up with inflation.

Inflation is still going up.

It's going up at a faster cadence once again over the last four, four months.

I think people are all feeling stressed out economically, mentally.

I feel it.

Absolutely.

I feel it.

Oh, so many jokes, so many skews.

Honestly, one of the best interviews in Most Def, if you don't know what I'm talking about.

Most Def was asked about his thoughts on Drake's music.

And his first knee jerk reaction is, why are you doing this to me?

And he answered, and it was very awkward in a very most deaf way, but it was hilarious.

Yeah, do so a favor, look it up.

Yeah.

There is no clear winner when it comes to a working model that provides a high level of employment and employee experience and productivity.

McKinsey researchers write.

In 2024, 68% of professionals said they work mostly in person at least four days a week, up from 34% in 2023, according to an October survey of 8,426 employees and 5,000.

I'm sorry, 3,531 executives.

So, you know, 11,000 people call it 25% are executives.

I would say this is probably not the best all inclusive summary, but it's a good, you know, feel.

The share of remote workers decreased to 17% from 44% during that time period.

And hybrid.

Hybrid workers slid from 14% to 22%.

So other way.

Other way.

Yeah.

Okay.

Which I think is the traditional in person office's way of trying to find some happy medium.

Medium or middle ground.

Despite the shakeups, people report being happy with their current arrangements.

Nearly 8 in 10 in person and hybrid workers are satisfied with their schedules, compared to roughly 9 in 10 remote workers.

This indicates that some sorting has already happened.

People have voted with their feet and chosen their preferred working model.

Brooke Weddle, a senior partner at McKinsey and author of the report, tells CNBC, make it still many workers, 39% across all work arrangements want to quit.

39%.

Nearly 40% of workers, no matter their arrangement, want to quit their job.

That's a big number.

They're just unhappy and they want to leave, but they feel like they can't leave because the labor market isn't where it should be.

And whether they're remote or in person isn't their driving factor.

That's similar to the 40% of workers who report wanting to quit during the Great Resignation.

Wow.

So overall satisfaction and happiness with their job has not improved.

Kind of wild, right?

Right.

So this could come as no surprise.

According to the report, people across working models say their company is doing a poor job in fostering collaboration, connectivity, innovation, mentorship and skill development, five key components of organizational health that help people feel happy and fulfilled at work.

Per the same McKenzie study and practices that leaders frequently cite as top reasons for getting their people back in the office.

It's important to note that the intent to quit isn't true attrition.

And many workers stay at their organizations despite being highly dissatisfied with certain aspects of their job.

It's a really dark kind of thought process when you think about it.

Yeah.

40 people want to quit, but obviously the majority of them don't.

So you've got 40% of your workforce that's dissatisfied with being there at all times.

That's wild.

Because of the lack of skill development and the collaboration with their teams.

Yeah, I mean, that's the excuse to bring them back.

I, I think that that's what people want if they're going to come back.

But everybody's interpretation of what healthy communication from their companies is, and they don't always understand corporate governance and limitations.

It's all.

It's all it's variable.

You know, I'm going to skip a skip ahead here, but employees, meanwhile, can make the most of their in person time by scheduling regular check ins with managers, leaders and colleagues and make an effort to attend gatherings in person.

Yeah, see, that's the whole networking aspect.

Notably, hybrid workers are the most likely to want to change their working model.

That surprised me.

It's possible.

Hybrid is the hardest because it requires more consistent and constant management in the working week.

Weddle says it's simplifies, it simplifies things when you're mostly remote or mostly in person.

With a hybrid working model, you have to really constantly be deciding where you think work is best done, which I guess kind of makes, makes some, you know, sense.

I mean, I'm, I'm currently under the hybrid working model and I just try to make sure on, I'm always available for the meetings.

Right.

And I just, I just, and collaborate with my team as much as I possibly can.

It is, it can be challenging though.

I see what, I see what they're saying though is like trying to figure out where at what point in time you're most effective in getting your work done.

But you should be, like you said earlier, you're an adult, you should know how to manage your time and get your work done.

So I have always struggled with, I think, the underlying humanity issue that's below here, more so than I think most people in my position in work have.

When I was younger, I lacked the confidence in my entrepreneurial spirit and I wanted the safety of a W2.

But I also believed in growth in corporate America and I wanted to make it to the top.

Even today, despite the fact that I know that I'm more entrepreneurial than I am corporate, I struggle with believing that I would have a higher degree of, of comfort with that lifestyle.

But then I ask myself, do I like being in the office at a certain time?

Do I like leaving at a certain time?

Do I like being beholden to somebody else's schedule?

No, very few of us do.

But that's a choice.

And I'm going to take a very extreme example to highlight.

And it's very bad.

It's, it's very stigmatizing.

But I'm going to use an example of how trauma is a choice.

Trauma is a choice.

Okay.

And again, this is not to say any of this is good or bad.

This is just, this is just me showing.

Okay.

This isn't a universal trauma as a choice thing, but when some things like how much you hate your job is Your trauma.

I think there's some choice here.

There's always exceptions.

I mean, if you're getting harassed at work or something malicious is happening.

Those are different circumstances.

Yeah, absolutely.

Just a hundred years ago it was not abnormal for people to get married very, very young.

15 and 16 year old girls getting married to 18 year old boys and having families.

By today's standards, that's a statutory crime.

So.

And much older men had wives.

In some cultures they had multiple wives.

Where today those same cultures would not.

Right.

And some of that would be trauma in today's circumstances.

Whereas 100 years ago it was very normal behavior.

Okay, let's see where you're going.

So the societal pressures say what's normal and not normal?

And make something that would otherwise not be traumatizing to somebody.

Traumatizing because society says it's not normal.

Oh, absolutely, absolutely, I agree.

So what I'm basically trying to get at is your perception of good and bad frames.

If you feel good or bad, the same job can feel like torture if you allow your perception and you allow it to continue to develop.

Whereas if you are choosing to find the silver lining in it and enjoy the good in, in what you do.

I have a consistent paycheck.

I have a flexible schedule or I have a hybrid working relationship.

I have health care, I've got health care.

I've got a 401k.

If I get sick, I still get paid, you know.

Yes.

I hate aspects of my job.

You might hate aspects of your marriage.

You might hate aspects of your own face.

I spill a little bit when I said that.

Sorry about that.

You, you may hate a lot of things about yourself, but you should in theory love yourself.

You should.

But we have this way of driving into work and I call it the, the office space phenomenon.

Oh yeah, they were what?

They're driving into work in traffic, hating life.

Right.

Try this as an exercise.

The next time you're going into work and you're like, I don't want to go into work.

You know, like, and you're frustrated and you're building this.

Stop it.

Turn on some music that you like or a podcast that you like, preferably the higher standard.

You should have Left an honest 5.

Star review for and liked and subscribed.

Told your friends about all the more goody good stuff.

I'm going back to snatching phones.

If I snatch your phone and I go into your Spotify or Apple podcast app and you are not following us.

And there's no rating, I want you.

To know we are not friends.

We can no longer be friends and.

I may throw your phone.

Yeah.

Shout out to all the listeners that, by the way, checked in with me on my boy.

I appreciate you.

Yeah, he's okay.

He's okay.

So let me finish the story.

Yeah.

Dive into something you like.

Don't think about work.

Drive to work, enjoying that moment.

And I guarantee you by the time you get to work, your stress level will start off lower.

110%.

I can't remember what we were watching, but there was a study that was going on where you people had to put their hands into ice cold water.

Okay.

Okay.

I love that.

Yeah.

And I do it all day long.

And they found, like, the average amount of time that they were able to put it in.

I can't remember how long it was before they had to pull their hands out.

And then they started making people smile, forced smile, while doing it, knowing that it was, it was gonna be painful.

They weren't gonna enjoy it.

Forced smile and.

And did it.

Were able to do it twice as long.

Yeah.

Cold, plunging.

Same thing, by the way.

Yeah.

I find the people who absolutely mentally hate the idea of it or like, oh, there's no way they get into it.

And they're, they're just miserable.

They want to get out.

The second they get in, they want to get out before they even get in.

Right.

People go into it optimistic.

Sometimes they'll have like, a pretty crazy reaction, but for the most part they can bear through it and, and get, get to a point where they're like, okay, equilibrium.

Right.

But the ones who are like, I want to try this, I want to do it, I want to, I want to get into it, they never have the same crazy reaction, at least in my experience.

And I've tried to get a lot of people in the old cold plunge, by the way.

You do?

Yeah.

Yeah, I still do.

Yeah.

Look, and if, if you're in an unfortunate set of circumstances, easier said than done.

If you feel like you're in a situation where your boss is out to get you or not giving you the opportunities or whatnot, well, you got to do everything you can to continue to grow and then, you know, enhance your skill sets, do something that, something else that you can on your five to nine.

Right.

And grow there and try to grow in your career.

Right.

That doesn't mean you, you have to feel stuck forever.

Feeling stuck is a choice.

You were never stuck.

You're never stuck.

It's not indentured servitude.

Yes.

Health care is hard to let go of.

Yes.

It's a.

It's a huge change.

And this is advice I give myself all the time.

But remember, you choose to work someplace.

If you're in that 40% and you want to quit, but you don't quit, then you need to really reframe your perspective on why you're choosing to stay there.

Right.

That's a choice you have made.

And yet they're always going to be an outlier who you know doesn't have a choice.

And I get it.

You feel stuck and there's probably reasons for it, but you can change that yourself.

You can choose that.

I can't remember who it was that was on the Joe Rogan.

Joe Rogan.

Joe Rogan podcast.

Never heard of it.

What's the name of the show?

The Joe Rogan Experience.

Is that like mind pump, but smaller?

Not mind pump.

Mind pump.

Mind pump, but very good.

So not mind pump is what you're saying.

Not my pumpkin.

Yeah, but they were.

This, this individual was on there and they were talking about.

I think she was a psychologist and she said that the act of actually complaining and talking about your problems more actually makes your problems worse.

Yeah.

You group.

Groups really highly exhibit this phenomenon.

Groups, Groups.

If you get a bunch of people together and they're all talking trash on like the work environment.

Yeah.

They all walk away with a negative sentiment.

They don't validate it.

Yeah.

They don't feel better like, oh, this person's going through what I'm going.

No, no, no.

It actually makes your situation worse.

Yeah.

Right.

Versus.

If you just try to do something to break the routine to your point, listen to something that's actually going to make you smile on your way to work or, you know, find the positive in what you're doing.

It's going to make it, the situation better as a whole.

If you.

Obviously, if you think about the negative, you're only going to find the negative.

It's like this, that whole book, the Secret.

Right.

That everyone crazy.

The power of positive.

The power of positive thinking.

No, it's no secret.

It's.

It's.

If you're looking for negativity, you're gonna find negativity.

Right?

Yeah.

It's true.

And what I'll say is I.

I have a way of.

You probably.

You've seen me do this.

It is not uncommon for someone to walk by my office and see me in my office with the lights off and some lamps on for some like, mood lighting, AirPods or my.

My beats in my, in my ears listening to the sound of Rain.

Laying on the floor, grounding yourself.

Just grounding myself.

And I do that all the time.

If I'm, like, stressed or I'm tired or I'm in a situation where I need to think about something, I will literally lay on the floor, my hands on my chest, and just sit there with my eyes closed on the floor, like, oh, my God, it's gross.

It's the floor.

And I'm like, yeah, it is.

And that's all good with me.

I'm just trying to be at peace, slow my breathing down, get my head back in the game, and I'll get back in the game.

Yeah.

That's what Daddy does.

We can't go on walks around the little lake because they lock.

They block it off.

Why do they do that?

Yeah, what's going on?

I still saw some people, like, do it.

I'm like, come on, man.

I mean, the studies are out on that too.

If you ever need a break.

This shows that going on a walk actually improves your situation.

Oh, yeah.

I love it.

I.

I.

Nick Norris says it, by the way, a lot.

Nick.

What a stud.

I mean, yeah.

I mean, religiously out there.

The stud of all studs.

Yeah.

Talk about optimism.

Have you ever heard him complain about anything?

No.

Oh, yeah.

Just you.

Yeah, I've heard him complain about you.

I'm not gonna out him for what he complains about.

Oh, really?

Okay.

Good for you.

I doubt everybody in the show.

This is why nobody wants to be my friend anymore.

They know they'll get called out.

I won't do that.

No, I won't do that.

I'm a vault.

Yeah.

You're not a hand.

I'm a better human.

I'm a better human.

I'm gonna be positive.

Yeah.

Be positive.

Yeah.

You're a vault, all right.

Oh, yeah.

Vault.

Yeah.

All right, let's work on some drywall.

Let's do this.

All right.

You got anything else?

No.

I love you all.

Thank you for listening.

And I hope wherever you are driving, in the gym, you know, in the shower.

Shower.

I want you to say I love you back to me.

So I love you, everyone.

Thank you for saying it back.

The analytics show that people listen to us on their little Amazon Alexa machines.

They really.

Yeah, there are.

There's a small percentage of people that's.

I'm just here.

I'm just picturing them saying, hey, Alexa.

Set a reminder to say I love you to Chris.

Yeah.

Hey, Alexa, play the Higher Standard podcast.

Good night, everybody.

Bye.