1 00:00:02,009 --> 00:00:05,010 Jacob Smulian: Hello, and welcome to another episode of Geopolitical Cousins. 2 00:00:05,070 --> 00:00:08,189 I am your other Jacob. 3 00:00:09,150 --> 00:00:15,090 Matt Gerkin joins the episode today as the third Musketeer alongside Jacob and Marco. 4 00:00:15,270 --> 00:00:18,780 Leave, review and rate the show if you haven't already. 5 00:00:19,620 --> 00:00:20,730 That's it for me. 6 00:00:20,760 --> 00:00:21,630 Let's dive in. 7 00:00:27,180 --> 00:00:27,600 Jacob Shapiro: Alright. 8 00:00:27,810 --> 00:00:30,450 Portos, Aramis, Athos. 9 00:00:30,450 --> 00:00:31,410 We're together again. 10 00:00:31,530 --> 00:00:32,580 Um, it's nice to see y'all. 11 00:00:33,060 --> 00:00:34,260 Um, we're gonna begin. 12 00:00:34,260 --> 00:00:36,690 We're, we're gonna do two things quickly and then we're gonna spend most of our 13 00:00:36,690 --> 00:00:38,610 time talking about Russia and Ukraine. 14 00:00:38,970 --> 00:00:39,930 Um, but. 15 00:00:40,185 --> 00:00:44,625 Marco wants to talk about comrade Momani and his visit with comrade Trump, 16 00:00:44,625 --> 00:00:47,655 or, uh, hair, hair leader, uh, Trump. 17 00:00:47,655 --> 00:00:48,645 I don't know what we should call him. 18 00:00:48,855 --> 00:00:51,915 Um, I assume, Marco, that you saw, Trump is now dressing up in long 19 00:00:51,915 --> 00:00:55,575 block, flowing trench coats with scarves after having met Momani. 20 00:00:56,115 --> 00:01:00,075 Um, if, if you were living under a rock, uh, Momani and Trump had a meeting, 21 00:01:00,465 --> 00:01:03,825 um, they were extremely friendly with each other, friendly with each other. 22 00:01:03,825 --> 00:01:08,055 Afterwards, uh, Momani was asked in front of Trump whether he held to his previous 23 00:01:08,055 --> 00:01:09,465 statement that Trump was a fascist. 24 00:01:09,465 --> 00:01:12,645 And before Momani could answer, Trump said, just, just 25 00:01:12,645 --> 00:01:14,025 tell them, yes, that's fine. 26 00:01:14,025 --> 00:01:17,385 It's, it's simpler than explaining it and gave him a nice little pat on the side. 27 00:01:17,385 --> 00:01:19,664 We should all be, we shall have somebody who looks at us the way that 28 00:01:19,664 --> 00:01:21,135 Donald Trump looks at the comrade. 29 00:01:21,135 --> 00:01:22,425 So, Marco, please cook. 30 00:01:22,425 --> 00:01:23,295 What do you wanna talk about here? 31 00:01:24,315 --> 00:01:26,865 Marko Papic: Well, first of all, uh, I also wanna say welcome to 32 00:01:26,865 --> 00:01:30,075 our, uh, third moste, Matt kin. 33 00:01:30,255 --> 00:01:30,885 Long time. 34 00:01:30,885 --> 00:01:31,215 Of course. 35 00:01:31,215 --> 00:01:34,905 We've all worked together for now almost, I mean, throughout the last two decades. 36 00:01:35,235 --> 00:01:37,785 So for longer than I think we're. 37 00:01:38,355 --> 00:01:41,055 We're willing to admit, given that we're now getting old. 38 00:01:41,055 --> 00:01:45,645 But, uh, Matt, good to have you on, on our pod as the third cousin. 39 00:01:45,645 --> 00:01:45,735 Yes. 40 00:01:46,335 --> 00:01:48,285 Matt Gertken: It's great to be with you guys as always. 41 00:01:49,185 --> 00:01:50,715 Marko Papic: So, uh, let's, let's dive into it. 42 00:01:50,775 --> 00:01:55,035 Look, I think what was really interesting about this is it was extremely friendly. 43 00:01:55,035 --> 00:01:56,235 I wasn't that surprised. 44 00:01:56,745 --> 00:01:57,914 Trump likes winners. 45 00:01:58,065 --> 00:01:59,235 He's impressed by winners. 46 00:01:59,235 --> 00:02:02,535 So anyone who's accomplished anything in life, Trump is like, 47 00:02:02,685 --> 00:02:03,015 Jacob Smulian: Hmm, 48 00:02:03,315 --> 00:02:04,005 Marko Papic: I like that. 49 00:02:04,545 --> 00:02:10,275 Um, and for all the, uh, Cuomo or all the Cuomo, um, criticism that 50 00:02:10,275 --> 00:02:14,355 Momani has never had a job in his life, the truth is he did crush him. 51 00:02:14,565 --> 00:02:14,895 You know? 52 00:02:14,895 --> 00:02:17,055 So, uh, that's, that matters. 53 00:02:17,085 --> 00:02:20,535 The second thing is, and this is where I would love to ha have Matt's thoughts 54 00:02:20,535 --> 00:02:26,954 on this, what I thought was actually significant from President Trump's. 55 00:02:28,290 --> 00:02:32,760 Signaling, his behavior, his body language, the tone of his 56 00:02:32,760 --> 00:02:37,740 voice, the soft touch of Amani's forearm, all those little nuances. 57 00:02:38,040 --> 00:02:41,220 What I get from that is that, you know, he's looking at the lay of 58 00:02:41,220 --> 00:02:44,760 the land inflation affordability, or the number one thing. 59 00:02:45,300 --> 00:02:49,830 He's got his former advisor and one time campaign chief Stephen 60 00:02:49,830 --> 00:02:54,030 Bannon, who's been calling for higher taxes on the wealthy for now years. 61 00:02:54,060 --> 00:02:57,150 I mean, I think there's very little daylight between a OC and Stephen 62 00:02:57,150 --> 00:02:58,980 Bannon, for example, on taxation. 63 00:02:59,550 --> 00:03:06,690 And I wonder if we saw the first of perhaps a significant pivot on 64 00:03:06,690 --> 00:03:10,860 at least macroeconomic policy by the Republican Party, by the MAGA 65 00:03:10,860 --> 00:03:12,840 camp, maybe just by President Trump. 66 00:03:13,410 --> 00:03:16,530 But that's something that I would flag that I think that there 67 00:03:16,530 --> 00:03:17,790 are two ways to interpret this. 68 00:03:17,790 --> 00:03:19,380 One is just Trump likes winners. 69 00:03:19,410 --> 00:03:24,990 Momani crushed it, like he deserves respect in sort of Trump's, you know, uh. 70 00:03:26,010 --> 00:03:30,060 Kind of like just medieval bronze age world. 71 00:03:30,060 --> 00:03:33,240 Like, you know, he's a conqueror and he deserves respect. 72 00:03:34,170 --> 00:03:37,650 On the other hand, I wonder if there's also some nuanced politics going on. 73 00:03:37,740 --> 00:03:38,640 Matt, what do you think? 74 00:03:39,480 --> 00:03:40,620 Matt Gertken: Yeah, it's interesting. 75 00:03:41,040 --> 00:03:44,250 Definitely Trump is really good at, you know, collaborating 76 00:03:44,280 --> 00:03:48,300 and, and, and co-opting any threats or perceived threats. 77 00:03:48,300 --> 00:03:52,440 So I think there's part of that if there, because there's this really superficial 78 00:03:52,440 --> 00:03:56,340 or commercial aspect, which is sort of like, if mom Donny is the new big 79 00:03:56,340 --> 00:04:00,810 thing, then why spend a bunch of time being grumpy and sort of resisting it 80 00:04:00,810 --> 00:04:02,430 or pretending that it's not happening? 81 00:04:02,460 --> 00:04:07,260 Why not just get out in front of it and, and make him part of the Trump fan club, 82 00:04:07,260 --> 00:04:08,700 which is what those pictures look like. 83 00:04:08,730 --> 00:04:11,400 'cause Ani is kind of beaming, you know, to be in the Oval Office. 84 00:04:12,000 --> 00:04:12,360 Um. 85 00:04:13,170 --> 00:04:15,269 But it, you know, I don't know. 86 00:04:15,315 --> 00:04:20,099 I, I guess if there's deep planning behind it, it might simply be that it's 87 00:04:20,099 --> 00:04:24,060 convenient for Trump and the Republicans if they can cast the Democrats as all 88 00:04:24,060 --> 00:04:26,610 socialists in the midterm election. 89 00:04:26,909 --> 00:04:31,380 And so, elevating mom, Donny's importance, you know, beyond 50% of 90 00:04:31,380 --> 00:04:35,370 New York to the idea that he represents the entire Democratic Party, that 91 00:04:35,370 --> 00:04:38,070 seems that it could be a useful ploy. 92 00:04:38,490 --> 00:04:42,510 Uh, but in terms of fiscal policy, yeah, eventually Republicans 93 00:04:42,510 --> 00:04:46,289 are going to have to accommodate themselves to some revenue raising. 94 00:04:46,289 --> 00:04:50,070 And in a way that's what Trump represents by using tariffs as a tool. 95 00:04:50,550 --> 00:04:56,520 Um, but I'm not sure that, I'm not sure that they, as a party have anywhere near 96 00:04:56,520 --> 00:05:00,570 the type of, you know, like for example, Bannon made a, what I think you were 97 00:05:00,570 --> 00:05:05,460 referring to, Marco Bannon made a really simple suggestion, which was to raise the 98 00:05:05,460 --> 00:05:10,409 highest income tax rate back to where it was under President Obama and Republicans 99 00:05:10,710 --> 00:05:11,914 as a party weren't willing to do that. 100 00:05:14,325 --> 00:05:16,245 Jacob Shapiro: I mean, I, ideology is just a circle. 101 00:05:16,245 --> 00:05:19,125 So if you go far enough down the left and far enough down the right, 102 00:05:19,125 --> 00:05:20,355 you will eventually meet each other. 103 00:05:20,475 --> 00:05:23,055 And I sort of thought that was, to me, that would encapsulates 104 00:05:23,055 --> 00:05:23,955 what happened in that meeting. 105 00:05:23,985 --> 00:05:27,165 'cause Trump has gone far enough down the right and Momani has gone far enough down 106 00:05:27,165 --> 00:05:28,545 the left that they're just meeting there. 107 00:05:28,935 --> 00:05:30,255 Um, and they're having a party. 108 00:05:30,284 --> 00:05:33,765 Marco, I I've been using, uh, your slide about the approval ratings for 109 00:05:33,765 --> 00:05:35,565 Trump on the economy versus Biden. 110 00:05:35,775 --> 00:05:36,735 And I dunno if you saw this. 111 00:05:36,735 --> 00:05:40,695 I mean, when Biden left office, it was, his approval rating on the economy was 37% 112 00:05:40,695 --> 00:05:42,435 and Trump had been hanging out around 45. 113 00:05:42,435 --> 00:05:46,335 The latest a b, C Washington Post Ipsos poll had President Trump at. 114 00:05:46,650 --> 00:05:49,950 37% as his approval rating on the economy right now, which is 115 00:05:49,950 --> 00:05:51,659 where Biden was when he left. 116 00:05:51,659 --> 00:05:54,120 So I think there might be something there also, Matt, to your point about, 117 00:05:54,180 --> 00:05:57,990 uh, Momani beaming, it's funny, I, I, I wish I remembered what the account 118 00:05:57,990 --> 00:06:02,580 was, but I saw this great social media person, uh, south Asian Social media 119 00:06:02,580 --> 00:06:06,960 per personality, say everybody who is in this, who is sort of, you know, is 120 00:06:07,050 --> 00:06:11,100 quote unquote Brown, makes this face when they're dealing with a white person 121 00:06:11,100 --> 00:06:13,920 who is talking to them about things that they don't know about this, like fake 122 00:06:13,920 --> 00:06:16,350 little smile to try and placate them. 123 00:06:16,409 --> 00:06:19,800 And I, I thought that was actually a pretty, uh, cutting remark too. 124 00:06:19,800 --> 00:06:20,370 I, I don't know. 125 00:06:20,370 --> 00:06:21,960 I, I think it's, I think it's pretty strange. 126 00:06:21,960 --> 00:06:25,140 Marco, when you say it's a pivot and fiscal policy, do you mean, you 127 00:06:25,140 --> 00:06:29,520 mean raising taxes or you mean that actually Trump is gonna open up 128 00:06:29,520 --> 00:06:32,909 the goodies and, and start giving out handouts and things like that? 129 00:06:32,909 --> 00:06:33,930 Or do, do you mean both? 130 00:06:35,160 --> 00:06:38,670 Marko Papic: Well, I, I purposely use the term macroeconomic policy 'cause 131 00:06:38,670 --> 00:06:44,310 I just mean like broadly dis, broadly defined, you know, uh, adopting more 132 00:06:44,310 --> 00:06:49,470 and more things from the left because President Trump is kind of a chameleon. 133 00:06:49,530 --> 00:06:53,160 He has done a lot of things that you wouldn't have expected a Republican 134 00:06:53,160 --> 00:06:57,360 president to do, such as, oh, I don't know, like being anti-free trade. 135 00:06:57,360 --> 00:07:00,720 That used to be more of a democratic party domain, as Matt pointed out. 136 00:07:00,720 --> 00:07:05,070 I mean, he did kind of raise taxes already on consumption, but one of the things that 137 00:07:05,070 --> 00:07:11,340 he has been pretty steadfast and pretty traditional Republican, you know, his 138 00:07:11,550 --> 00:07:16,080 greatest legislative achievement of his two terms is the 2017 tax cut, which was, 139 00:07:16,080 --> 00:07:20,010 you know, Paul Ryan's, Paul Ryan, like passed that and was like, I'm out, you 140 00:07:20,010 --> 00:07:24,660 know, and he opened up his umbrella and went back to, you know, the land of like 141 00:07:24,810 --> 00:07:29,400 Hayek and Ronald Reagan, which, and he is never been seen from again, you know, Paul 142 00:07:29,400 --> 00:07:31,710 Ryan's just like, my job here is done. 143 00:07:32,220 --> 00:07:32,670 Uh. 144 00:07:33,195 --> 00:07:42,255 So if you actually look at the jobs and tax cut, uh, act, um, tax cut act of 2017, 145 00:07:42,285 --> 00:07:46,665 I mean, it is traditional just Republican policy and so that's what I mean. 146 00:07:47,115 --> 00:07:50,355 Jacob, broadly defined macroeconomic policy. 147 00:07:50,805 --> 00:07:51,135 Music: Yeah. 148 00:07:51,375 --> 00:07:55,125 Marko Papic: Moving a little bit more to the left and seeking to counter 149 00:07:55,125 --> 00:07:58,725 some, you know, like when Madani said, Hey, we had a good meeting. 150 00:07:58,725 --> 00:08:00,165 We agree on affordability. 151 00:08:00,735 --> 00:08:05,355 Well for example, like, you know, childcare, like free childcare. 152 00:08:05,355 --> 00:08:06,915 I mean, did you guys agree on that? 153 00:08:07,155 --> 00:08:11,685 You know, 'cause that would be a pretty big departure of the Republican agenda 154 00:08:11,685 --> 00:08:16,485 and so I wonder if that Yeah, like maybe there will be some, uh, ways to look 155 00:08:16,545 --> 00:08:21,015 at Yeah, expanding the welfare state and financing it by taxing people more. 156 00:08:21,015 --> 00:08:23,175 Like, I, I literally mean that, you know, 157 00:08:24,105 --> 00:08:27,105 Matt Gertken: well, a, a good test case, you know, the Republicans to end the 158 00:08:27,105 --> 00:08:30,945 government shutdown had to promise that they would hold a vote on extending those. 159 00:08:31,305 --> 00:08:36,165 Obamacare subsidies that had been expanded during COVID, and they do 160 00:08:36,195 --> 00:08:40,605 technically owe the Democrats a vote and they would kind of undershoot their 161 00:08:40,605 --> 00:08:45,975 own claim to be winning working class voters if they just nix those subsidies. 162 00:08:45,975 --> 00:08:49,995 So we might just in a month or two, see a test case of whether the Republicans 163 00:08:49,995 --> 00:08:54,585 can actually extend those subsidies just for a year past the midterm as 164 00:08:54,645 --> 00:08:58,545 some kind of bribe to prevent voters from being too unhappy with it. 165 00:08:58,545 --> 00:09:01,845 Because the issue is if healthcare premiums are going up anyway, 166 00:09:02,625 --> 00:09:05,865 then everyone can blame them if they don't extend the subsidies. 167 00:09:06,615 --> 00:09:10,035 Whereas if they extend the subsidies, there won't be as big of an 168 00:09:10,035 --> 00:09:11,955 increase in, in, in, in premiums. 169 00:09:11,955 --> 00:09:14,865 And you know, they get to say that they did something they could 170 00:09:14,865 --> 00:09:18,315 even maybe rebranded as instead of expanded Obamacare subsidies. 171 00:09:18,315 --> 00:09:21,045 They could call them trumpcare subsidies or whatever, you know. 172 00:09:21,585 --> 00:09:25,665 Marko Papic: But just to be clear, all I'm seeing is Trump, right? 173 00:09:25,665 --> 00:09:26,620 Trump may be. 174 00:09:27,720 --> 00:09:29,850 Creating an exit for himself. 175 00:09:30,330 --> 00:09:35,310 Uh, he may fail because as Matt points out, like, you know, Senator Thune 176 00:09:35,670 --> 00:09:41,295 like does not strike me as a dude who would've softly touched mom's. 177 00:09:42,645 --> 00:09:44,625 And said, call me whatever you want, son. 178 00:09:44,865 --> 00:09:45,645 I'm okay with that. 179 00:09:46,635 --> 00:09:49,425 Matt Gertken: Well, it could, it could, it could succeed spectacularly 180 00:09:49,425 --> 00:09:53,564 if Democrats take both houses and Trump is forced to endorse some of 181 00:09:53,564 --> 00:09:56,625 their policies in legislation in 2027. 182 00:09:57,255 --> 00:10:00,345 Marko Papic: And if you don't like that, you don't like NBA basketball, 183 00:10:00,405 --> 00:10:01,845 let me tell you that right now. 184 00:10:02,235 --> 00:10:02,655 Jacob Shapiro: Yeah. 185 00:10:02,805 --> 00:10:04,665 Well, you know, I'll, I'll close this out on this. 186 00:10:04,665 --> 00:10:08,234 I just, I actually wasn't that like I, I feel like a lot of folks in New 187 00:10:08,234 --> 00:10:09,795 York City are scared of Mom Donny. 188 00:10:09,795 --> 00:10:12,675 There's been a fear thing around Mom Donny, and I have to say, I've never 189 00:10:12,675 --> 00:10:16,005 been more scared of him as a politician than with the ruthless pragmatism that he 190 00:10:16,005 --> 00:10:19,005 just showed that he was willing to walk into the White House with the fascist and 191 00:10:19,005 --> 00:10:20,505 rub shoulders with him and talk to him. 192 00:10:20,564 --> 00:10:23,895 That tells me that we're actually dealing with a much more serious political 193 00:10:23,895 --> 00:10:27,015 operator who might actually be able to get things done versus the guy who was 194 00:10:27,015 --> 00:10:28,964 quoting Eugene Debs in the Victory speech. 195 00:10:29,040 --> 00:10:32,370 That guy is not gonna get anything done, but this guy, this guy could 196 00:10:32,370 --> 00:10:33,390 actually get some things done. 197 00:10:33,599 --> 00:10:36,270 The second thing is to Matt's point about Trump trying to elevate him to 198 00:10:36,270 --> 00:10:40,410 make the next race about socialism, I think it also maybe serves to discredit 199 00:10:40,410 --> 00:10:43,020 Momani with his base too, because mm-hmm. 200 00:10:43,260 --> 00:10:47,189 We've gone from all of the social media about, you know, with the, with the song 201 00:10:47,189 --> 00:10:48,750 that went viral and things like that. 202 00:10:48,750 --> 00:10:49,890 He's, he's the leader. 203 00:10:49,890 --> 00:10:52,620 He's gonna, you know, put things back together, affordability, everything else. 204 00:10:52,709 --> 00:10:56,160 And then he's hanging out with Donald Trump, he's going on all the shows and 205 00:10:56,160 --> 00:10:58,589 talking about how he's hanging out with Donald Trump and he is offering the old 206 00:10:58,589 --> 00:11:01,620 police commissioner the job and like moderating himself in all these ways. 207 00:11:01,949 --> 00:11:04,110 And I just, and I just think the last thing is, I really mean, 208 00:11:04,110 --> 00:11:07,290 the thing about ideology being a flat circle, like it's perfect. 209 00:11:07,290 --> 00:11:10,949 Like Ani and Trump have way more in common than the political 210 00:11:11,010 --> 00:11:12,599 middle in the United States has. 211 00:11:12,839 --> 00:11:16,260 And the worse the economy gets, I think the bigger that opportunity. 212 00:11:16,860 --> 00:11:19,890 Is there in the middle, which, to your point about the Obamacare subsidies, 213 00:11:20,250 --> 00:11:23,910 uh, none other than Representative Massey who earned some of Trump's 214 00:11:23,910 --> 00:11:27,180 ire recently was out there saying, this is Republican economics. 215 00:11:27,180 --> 00:11:30,480 We're just gonna push, like continuing to do this with Obamacare. 216 00:11:30,480 --> 00:11:33,930 So I think the moderates are starting to look at Trump's approval ratings, 217 00:11:33,930 --> 00:11:37,560 what he's doing with Momani, how it's all going to his head, the Bannon 218 00:11:37,560 --> 00:11:41,100 folks, and the a OC folks basically saying the same thing, except with 219 00:11:41,100 --> 00:11:44,580 different, you know, language and saying maybe there's a big opportunity there. 220 00:11:44,580 --> 00:11:46,350 But, you know, maybe Hope Springs eternal. 221 00:11:48,540 --> 00:11:51,270 Um, anything else you guys want to hit here before we move on? 222 00:11:52,020 --> 00:11:55,740 Marko Papic: Well, just last thing I would wanna say is, uh, don't forget Ma 223 00:11:55,740 --> 00:12:00,480 Donny's rise to prominence was asking Trump voters why he voted for Trump. 224 00:12:01,500 --> 00:12:04,980 Like that was the whole, like the first TikTok video he did was that. 225 00:12:04,980 --> 00:12:06,600 And so, yes, you're right, Jacob. 226 00:12:06,600 --> 00:12:11,160 I do think his supporters will start to accuse him of platforming, you know? 227 00:12:11,160 --> 00:12:11,170 Mm-hmm. 228 00:12:11,170 --> 00:12:15,720 Which is this accusation on the left that if you hold a conversation with somebody. 229 00:12:16,680 --> 00:12:20,610 Who is like, you know, flirts with fascism, you're giving them a platform 230 00:12:20,610 --> 00:12:24,900 and therefore you are, you know, I dunno, triggering people and causing them 231 00:12:24,930 --> 00:12:28,440 anxiety, which is like, you know, life. 232 00:12:28,920 --> 00:12:33,660 Uh, but what I would say is that in this case, like, let's not forget Mom rose to 233 00:12:33,660 --> 00:12:38,040 prominence based on doing exactly what he did in the White House, which is like 234 00:12:38,040 --> 00:12:41,790 sitting down and with a smile on his face saying like, alright, well, like we gotta 235 00:12:41,790 --> 00:12:43,140 live together so let's figure it out. 236 00:12:43,140 --> 00:12:46,050 And I think, you know, we should, uh, you know, whether you 237 00:12:46,050 --> 00:12:47,280 agree with his politics or not. 238 00:12:47,280 --> 00:12:47,800 I think that was. 239 00:12:49,665 --> 00:12:53,235 That's what, that's, that's what Western civilization is about, you know? 240 00:12:54,135 --> 00:12:55,060 So well done. 241 00:12:55,160 --> 00:12:55,580 Momani 242 00:12:55,920 --> 00:12:59,505 Jacob Shapiro: all about soft, soft handshakes between, uh, comrades and fers. 243 00:12:59,535 --> 00:12:59,895 Okay. 244 00:13:00,015 --> 00:13:01,035 Comrades and fers. 245 00:13:01,035 --> 00:13:03,165 There's, there's the, there's the podcast title right there. 246 00:13:03,165 --> 00:13:03,645 It's our title. 247 00:13:04,095 --> 00:13:04,545 Marko Papic: Yes. 248 00:13:05,325 --> 00:13:07,695 Jacob Shapiro: Um, alright, let's move on to Japan and China. 249 00:13:07,965 --> 00:13:11,715 Um, it took me a while to find the actual quote, but so Japanese prime Minister, 250 00:13:11,775 --> 00:13:16,455 um, Taka Ichi, um, she was speaking dur during a parliamentary session and when 251 00:13:16,455 --> 00:13:21,435 she was asked about a scenario involving a Chinese military action against Taiwan, 252 00:13:21,705 --> 00:13:26,205 here's her quote, quote, if warships are u are used accompanied by the exercise 253 00:13:26,205 --> 00:13:30,315 of military force, then however you look at it, it could be a situation posing 254 00:13:30,315 --> 00:13:32,445 an existential threat to the country. 255 00:13:32,760 --> 00:13:34,710 And then she went on, you know, to say that it might involve 256 00:13:34,710 --> 00:13:36,240 Japan using military force. 257 00:13:36,240 --> 00:13:40,260 Um, as a result of that existential threat, China has reacted to that by 258 00:13:40,260 --> 00:13:44,130 saying it was shocking that it was a gray violation of international law. 259 00:13:44,520 --> 00:13:48,630 Um, that it, uh, there was another one I had here, entirely unacceptable. 260 00:13:48,630 --> 00:13:51,780 Matt, I'm sure you're gonna tell us about the head and the snake metaphor here too. 261 00:13:52,110 --> 00:13:57,570 Um, it's caused a rather large spat in, in Japanese Chinese relations. 262 00:13:57,870 --> 00:14:01,980 Uh, we've had everything from economic reprisals like travel warnings and 263 00:14:01,980 --> 00:14:06,930 cancellations of Japanese movie premieres, um, and even threats over specific classes 264 00:14:06,930 --> 00:14:10,560 of Japanese products into China, and then, you know, backwards and forwards. 265 00:14:10,920 --> 00:14:13,500 Um, so I mean, I, I, I think this is actually something that we've 266 00:14:13,500 --> 00:14:16,620 slept on a little bit, but Matt, uh, lead us up to it and tell us what's 267 00:14:16,620 --> 00:14:18,690 going on with this Japan, China spat. 268 00:14:19,290 --> 00:14:21,660 Matt Gertken: Yeah, it, it, it'll probably be a pretty big 269 00:14:21,660 --> 00:14:23,280 quarrel when all is said and done. 270 00:14:23,280 --> 00:14:28,665 I've been for the, you know, for the, I. You know, the ge, the guesswork 271 00:14:28,665 --> 00:14:31,395 that you can do on this kind of thing, several months, they're, 272 00:14:31,455 --> 00:14:32,775 they're gonna be clashing pretty hard. 273 00:14:32,775 --> 00:14:34,605 It could extend well into next year. 274 00:14:35,205 --> 00:14:40,035 Um, and China just today is starting to actually interfere 275 00:14:40,035 --> 00:14:42,495 with airline passage to Japan. 276 00:14:42,495 --> 00:14:45,375 Or initially they were just discouraging tourists from going to Japan. 277 00:14:45,375 --> 00:14:49,305 Now they might actually be shutting down flights, so it, it'll escalate. 278 00:14:49,365 --> 00:14:53,775 Uh, it is true that they're targeting, you know, seafood and, and, and 279 00:14:53,775 --> 00:14:55,425 initially discouraging tourists. 280 00:14:55,425 --> 00:14:58,305 Well, those are not the worst ramifications. 281 00:14:58,305 --> 00:15:02,685 You know, there, there could eventually be a total tourist shutdown. 282 00:15:02,685 --> 00:15:07,125 There could be, uh, rare earth embargo like they did in 2010 against Japan. 283 00:15:07,515 --> 00:15:12,285 Um, but one of my colleagues, Jesse Curry, has made a great point, 284 00:15:12,285 --> 00:15:16,005 which is that China still needs semiconductor equipment from Japan. 285 00:15:16,005 --> 00:15:20,250 So they're not going to completely cut off their trade, but it fits within a long. 286 00:15:21,240 --> 00:15:27,270 Story every few years, these two end up having a bit of a trade clash and 287 00:15:27,270 --> 00:15:29,130 nationalist protests and these things. 288 00:15:29,670 --> 00:15:33,120 I think it does make sense from Japan's strategic point of view that they 289 00:15:33,120 --> 00:15:37,860 would need to defend Taiwan and if it were attacked, which is of course 290 00:15:37,860 --> 00:15:42,360 a hypothetical, but if it were, they would, they would probably need to, 291 00:15:42,360 --> 00:15:46,140 for their own supply security, it, it would fit with their own sort of grand 292 00:15:46,140 --> 00:15:48,420 strategy over, over history to do that. 293 00:15:48,420 --> 00:15:52,050 So she was stating what, what actually I've said for many years, and I'm sure 294 00:15:52,050 --> 00:15:55,710 many people that look at Japan have said, but it's different when the Prime 295 00:15:55,710 --> 00:15:57,780 Minister says it than anybody else. 296 00:15:58,110 --> 00:16:00,840 I think it's not irrelevant here that she's the first 297 00:16:00,840 --> 00:16:02,460 woman, prime Minister of Japan. 298 00:16:02,460 --> 00:16:06,750 So she probably wanted to come out with a very stark sort of Elizabethan, 299 00:16:07,110 --> 00:16:11,340 uh, national security policy and basically, uh, make sure that nobody's 300 00:16:11,340 --> 00:16:12,540 gonna try to take advantage of her. 301 00:16:12,540 --> 00:16:16,140 And I think she probably feels insecure because President Trump has 302 00:16:16,140 --> 00:16:18,005 negotiated a trade truce with China. 303 00:16:18,645 --> 00:16:22,155 And he at least initially acted as if Taiwan would be on the table 304 00:16:22,155 --> 00:16:25,635 when he went to Bussan, South Korea to meet with Xi Jinping. 305 00:16:26,055 --> 00:16:29,055 And I think his advisors quickly told him, well, no, we're not, we're 306 00:16:29,055 --> 00:16:31,035 not trading Taiwan for soybeans. 307 00:16:31,035 --> 00:16:35,265 That wouldn't really be a great trade from an American national interest perspective. 308 00:16:35,265 --> 00:16:38,835 And so Taiwan kind of fell off of the menu. 309 00:16:39,315 --> 00:16:42,960 Uh, but we know something's going on because Xi Jinping then called Donald 310 00:16:42,960 --> 00:16:44,775 Trump and they talked about Taiwan. 311 00:16:45,105 --> 00:16:48,315 And then he immediately afterwards called Takai to inform 312 00:16:48,315 --> 00:16:49,785 her of what Xi Jinping said. 313 00:16:49,785 --> 00:16:56,085 So there's some sort of back channel and behind the curtain 314 00:16:56,505 --> 00:16:58,635 negotiation about Taiwan right now. 315 00:16:58,635 --> 00:17:03,885 And this, I think this, the obvious point here is that Japan has a moment 316 00:17:03,885 --> 00:17:07,425 where they can step forward and say, well, look, they're doing what the 317 00:17:07,425 --> 00:17:11,385 US demands, which is an ally picks up a larger share of the burden. 318 00:17:11,835 --> 00:17:14,865 They're increasing the deterrence around Taiwan. 319 00:17:15,750 --> 00:17:19,470 Um, but they're also sort of in a tough situation because Trump doesn't wanna ruin 320 00:17:19,470 --> 00:17:21,930 his own trade truths for Japan's sake. 321 00:17:21,930 --> 00:17:25,590 So that means that now they're now engaged in a one-on-one, uh, mi at 322 00:17:25,590 --> 00:17:27,300 least a miniature trade war with China. 323 00:17:28,470 --> 00:17:30,660 Marko Papic: Can I ask, uh, some questions, Matt? 324 00:17:31,080 --> 00:17:31,500 Matt Gertken: Sure. 325 00:17:31,560 --> 00:17:32,040 Go for it. 326 00:17:32,520 --> 00:17:33,630 Marko Papic: I guess that's why you're here. 327 00:17:33,780 --> 00:17:35,190 So you have to say Yes. 328 00:17:35,400 --> 00:17:40,950 Uh, first, can you, can you explain for our audience, like, you know, be 329 00:17:41,100 --> 00:17:43,050 beyond just the semiconductors, right? 330 00:17:43,050 --> 00:17:47,010 Taiwan produces whatever percent of global semiconductors. 331 00:17:47,010 --> 00:17:47,550 It's a lot. 332 00:17:48,180 --> 00:17:51,060 Uh, aside from that, you know, you mentioned that there's like 333 00:17:51,060 --> 00:17:54,510 a geopolitical imperative for Japan to care about the Taiwan. 334 00:17:54,960 --> 00:17:56,520 Can you explain a little bit about that? 335 00:17:56,760 --> 00:17:56,850 Yeah. 336 00:17:56,850 --> 00:17:59,730 Like why, what does that mean and what does it look like? 337 00:18:00,180 --> 00:18:00,360 Matt Gertken: Yeah. 338 00:18:00,360 --> 00:18:01,260 I, I think so. 339 00:18:01,260 --> 00:18:05,190 I think it's fair to say based on their history, they, they're always. 340 00:18:05,520 --> 00:18:08,820 Resource poor, they have to import their food and fuel. 341 00:18:08,820 --> 00:18:09,960 That's still the case today. 342 00:18:09,960 --> 00:18:13,440 They, they heavily depend on imports, especially energy. 343 00:18:14,070 --> 00:18:20,280 Um, and those imports almost by definition have to go, you know, 344 00:18:20,280 --> 00:18:23,370 from the Middle East through the Strai and Malacca and then up through 345 00:18:23,370 --> 00:18:25,320 the Taiwan Strait or around Taiwan. 346 00:18:25,770 --> 00:18:27,990 Obviously the Western Pacific is really big. 347 00:18:27,990 --> 00:18:32,940 So you can of course, move your supply line into the Pacific if you, if 348 00:18:32,940 --> 00:18:34,290 you wanna avoid the Taiwan Strait. 349 00:18:34,290 --> 00:18:39,000 But if China had the capability to conquer the island, then they 350 00:18:39,000 --> 00:18:44,040 would also have the capability to interfere with Japan's supply line. 351 00:18:44,040 --> 00:18:49,920 So that would be a traditional, uh, a strategic threat to them. 352 00:18:49,920 --> 00:18:51,660 And it's one that they're very sensitive to. 353 00:18:51,660 --> 00:18:55,770 And one of the reasons why, you know, they fought China in the past and in, 354 00:18:55,920 --> 00:19:00,270 and in the 1890s and early 19 hundreds, strove to gain control of Taiwan. 355 00:19:00,750 --> 00:19:00,990 So. 356 00:19:01,514 --> 00:19:04,274 It's, it's an island in, in their own island chain. 357 00:19:04,274 --> 00:19:10,125 And China views it as sort of a China views that island chain, uh, from Japan 358 00:19:10,155 --> 00:19:14,745 down to the Philippines and in, in southeast Asia as sort of a containment 359 00:19:15,405 --> 00:19:17,264 that they need to break out of. 360 00:19:17,264 --> 00:19:20,970 And, and Japan views it as a strategic approach, you know, when we can think 361 00:19:20,970 --> 00:19:24,764 of like the Americans island hopping and, and taking Osaka and then being 362 00:19:24,764 --> 00:19:26,595 able to run bomb raids into Japan. 363 00:19:27,135 --> 00:19:32,804 So it's, it's just a, uh, it's an unfortunate turf war that's reawakening. 364 00:19:32,804 --> 00:19:36,554 And, and of course, these two have the most ancient and antagonism, 365 00:19:36,945 --> 00:19:38,534 uh, partly for those reasons. 366 00:19:39,014 --> 00:19:44,655 Uh, so it, it does, what she's saying fits with probably what their strategic 367 00:19:44,655 --> 00:19:47,745 planners are saying, which is that it's just not in Japan's interest 368 00:19:47,745 --> 00:19:50,324 to let China take Taiwan by force. 369 00:19:51,435 --> 00:19:55,185 Marko Papic: How would you gauge, if you would, if we would have like a zero 370 00:19:55,185 --> 00:19:58,245 to 10, you know, on China's reaction? 371 00:19:59,310 --> 00:20:02,850 Not just based on its previous reactions to comments like this, but also how you 372 00:20:02,850 --> 00:20:04,530 would've thought they would've reacted. 373 00:20:04,695 --> 00:20:04,985 Music: Yeah. 374 00:20:05,045 --> 00:20:05,275 Do you 375 00:20:05,275 --> 00:20:08,970 Marko Papic: feel that China has reacted, you know, from zero to 376 00:20:08,970 --> 00:20:13,650 10, like 10 outta 10 being like declaration of war zero, like sure. 377 00:20:13,650 --> 00:20:15,000 Whatever invade us. 378 00:20:15,480 --> 00:20:16,710 Like where would you put this? 379 00:20:16,980 --> 00:20:17,465 Matt Gertken: Yeah, yeah. 380 00:20:18,030 --> 00:20:21,265 They've kind of, so as a state, they've kind of underacted. 381 00:20:21,720 --> 00:20:25,650 Um, but, but their reaction, but we should acknowledge that their reaction is still 382 00:20:25,650 --> 00:20:31,410 building that this is an emerging crisis between the two or an emerging trade spat. 383 00:20:31,410 --> 00:20:34,500 And so it, they are ramping up their response. 384 00:20:34,950 --> 00:20:38,685 But I'd say right now they're going from like a. You know, they're 385 00:20:38,685 --> 00:20:40,455 going from like a four to a five. 386 00:20:40,815 --> 00:20:43,065 You know, they're, they're not, they're not moving up into 387 00:20:43,065 --> 00:20:44,655 seven, eight type territory. 388 00:20:44,865 --> 00:20:48,615 And, and I just, I would say that when it first happened, the Osac, the Osaka 389 00:20:48,615 --> 00:20:52,725 Consulate General's comment that he would cut off Tai Taka ichi's head. 390 00:20:53,145 --> 00:20:54,435 That was a huge shock. 391 00:20:54,435 --> 00:20:57,945 That was like wolf, that was like wolf Warrior times 10, you know? 392 00:20:57,945 --> 00:20:59,565 And, and everyone was like, whoa. 393 00:20:59,865 --> 00:21:03,705 But the thing is that, that, that Beijing, he had to take that post down 394 00:21:03,705 --> 00:21:06,375 and Beijing's response is a little bit different than what he said. 395 00:21:06,375 --> 00:21:06,465 But, 396 00:21:06,465 --> 00:21:13,245 Marko Papic: okay, so I wanna, I, first of all, I think Jacob and I definitely 397 00:21:13,515 --> 00:21:16,785 support policymakers threatening to cut off each other's heads. 398 00:21:18,255 --> 00:21:21,435 I just, I just wanna say that, like, that's just a layup for us. 399 00:21:21,465 --> 00:21:22,275 Thank you guys. 400 00:21:22,455 --> 00:21:22,815 I mean, it, it definitely, 401 00:21:22,815 --> 00:21:23,685 Jacob Shapiro: yeah, it helps business. 402 00:21:23,685 --> 00:21:24,015 Thank you. 403 00:21:24,015 --> 00:21:24,825 Keep, keep threatening. 404 00:21:24,825 --> 00:21:25,065 It's good. 405 00:21:25,695 --> 00:21:27,855 Marko Papic: Yeah, I mean, like, we got Matt, Todd. 406 00:21:28,095 --> 00:21:29,355 I mean, this is like a layup. 407 00:21:29,355 --> 00:21:33,045 Like, I, I didn't even say it and it's my job to say stuff like that. 408 00:21:33,375 --> 00:21:36,795 Uh, but the second thing is, um, you know, it's interesting. 409 00:21:37,979 --> 00:21:38,879 What you just said. 410 00:21:38,879 --> 00:21:42,000 You said the Chinese state is, you know, relatively common on this. 411 00:21:42,000 --> 00:21:45,149 I think it, uh, there is a narrative out there that they're 412 00:21:45,149 --> 00:21:47,070 preparing to, like invade Taiwan. 413 00:21:47,070 --> 00:21:50,669 I think something like this, in a context of preparing to invade Taiwan 414 00:21:50,669 --> 00:21:54,810 is a great opportunity to start laying the groundwork, groundwork for that. 415 00:21:54,810 --> 00:21:56,520 They're, they're behaving quite rationally. 416 00:21:56,820 --> 00:21:59,879 Beijing is, and almost conciliatory in a way. 417 00:22:00,719 --> 00:22:04,590 But the other thing I wanted to ask you is, what about sentiment on the ground? 418 00:22:04,620 --> 00:22:07,590 Because in the past, of course, there were like boycotts of, 419 00:22:07,889 --> 00:22:09,570 you know, Hondas and Toyotas. 420 00:22:09,600 --> 00:22:14,010 There was, uh, I think violence even, um, by pro, just, just protestors, 421 00:22:14,370 --> 00:22:17,280 where China a couple of times thought it went outta hand, had 422 00:22:17,280 --> 00:22:19,709 to kind of dampen those protests. 423 00:22:19,709 --> 00:22:21,330 What about the civil society in China? 424 00:22:21,330 --> 00:22:25,260 I mean, I, I, again, I feel like this statement has not 425 00:22:25,260 --> 00:22:27,300 really irked anyone in China. 426 00:22:27,300 --> 00:22:28,860 It's almost like they don't really care. 427 00:22:28,860 --> 00:22:30,300 The cutting of the head was like, what? 428 00:22:30,719 --> 00:22:33,689 But that was them to Japan, you know, like they're, I don't know. 429 00:22:33,689 --> 00:22:35,100 What do you agree? 430 00:22:36,060 --> 00:22:37,260 Do you think I'm reading too much into it? 431 00:22:37,260 --> 00:22:37,470 Yeah, I think 432 00:22:37,710 --> 00:22:41,520 Matt Gertken: the only thing is that I would, my, again, best guess on 433 00:22:41,520 --> 00:22:43,350 how this episode is gonna play out. 434 00:22:43,949 --> 00:22:47,100 I think they, there probably will be quite a bit of escalation. 435 00:22:47,100 --> 00:22:50,340 Like in the end there probably will be pretty significant, like 436 00:22:50,879 --> 00:22:55,020 impact on quarterly exports from China to Japan and Japan and China 437 00:22:55,590 --> 00:23:00,210 and, and probably there will be nationalist protests on both sides. 438 00:23:00,210 --> 00:23:03,179 That's my best guess, that this will ramp up quite a bit and there will 439 00:23:03,179 --> 00:23:08,340 be some scenery like you're referring to in the 2000 tens, you know, um, 440 00:23:08,580 --> 00:23:11,070 boycotts of Japanese, uh, cars. 441 00:23:11,220 --> 00:23:13,500 And the thing is, this is easy now because of course. 442 00:23:13,860 --> 00:23:16,649 Chinese EVs have been stealing market share anyway. 443 00:23:17,160 --> 00:23:17,220 Yeah. 444 00:23:17,220 --> 00:23:20,940 You know, in, in the past they, they'd had to switch to South Korean cars and then 445 00:23:20,940 --> 00:23:24,840 they'd boycott South Korea for the, you know, terminal high altitude area, defense 446 00:23:24,840 --> 00:23:29,010 missile thing, and then they'd go back to buying Japanese and they'd sort of, so 447 00:23:29,010 --> 00:23:34,680 this is, I mean, it's obvious that China still plays its domestic market against 448 00:23:34,680 --> 00:23:36,960 other countries as a, as a major weapon. 449 00:23:37,889 --> 00:23:43,530 And it's, uh, and it's quite clear that that China, um, has some 450 00:23:43,530 --> 00:23:46,560 latent social unrest that could be unleashed here if they want it to. 451 00:23:46,560 --> 00:23:50,910 So I, I guess maybe that would be my, my point here is that if we don't see large 452 00:23:50,910 --> 00:23:55,050 scale anti-Japanese protests in multiple Chinese cities, then that means that 453 00:23:55,139 --> 00:23:58,320 the Communist party didn't want them to happen, didn't wanna play up the issue. 454 00:23:58,320 --> 00:23:58,680 Interesting. 455 00:23:59,190 --> 00:23:59,399 Marko Papic: Yeah. 456 00:23:59,430 --> 00:23:59,610 Okay. 457 00:23:59,610 --> 00:24:01,680 So you don't think they were organic in the past? 458 00:24:02,370 --> 00:24:06,810 Matt Gertken: Uh, I mean some kind of mix, but generally I think there's, there's 459 00:24:06,810 --> 00:24:11,970 a, there's a local authority that, that would tend to allow a protest to happen. 460 00:24:12,030 --> 00:24:15,150 And I think Japan is one area where you could kind of have consensus, you 461 00:24:15,150 --> 00:24:18,810 know, if among the provinces of China, if there's one topic where there's 462 00:24:18,810 --> 00:24:22,500 sort of willing to let people vent some social steam, that would be it. 463 00:24:23,040 --> 00:24:27,990 Um, but my sense is that communist party, at least tacitly, allows these things. 464 00:24:28,965 --> 00:24:29,145 Jacob Shapiro: Yeah. 465 00:24:29,145 --> 00:24:31,905 But before we leave this, Matt, I I wanted to ask you two questions too. 466 00:24:31,905 --> 00:24:34,485 The, the first, and I think you sort of said this, but I wanted to underscore it. 467 00:24:34,905 --> 00:24:38,205 Um, do you think, do you think that what Taiki said was intentional? 468 00:24:38,565 --> 00:24:41,750 Because I read her comments in the context of it, and I thought, I, 469 00:24:41,755 --> 00:24:44,715 I, if I was putting myself in her shoes, I would've thought that was 470 00:24:44,715 --> 00:24:46,075 a fairly innocuous statement at. 471 00:24:46,285 --> 00:24:48,865 It felt like China was pouncing on any little thing it could 472 00:24:48,865 --> 00:24:50,005 to make a big deal out of it. 473 00:24:50,005 --> 00:24:52,345 So I wonder if, if you really think it was intentional or if it was 474 00:24:52,585 --> 00:24:55,795 sort of just something she said and China wanted to, to pounce on it. 475 00:24:55,795 --> 00:24:58,735 And then the second thing I wanted to ask you is what is China's objective here? 476 00:24:58,735 --> 00:25:03,025 Because I've seen quite a lot of speculation that China realizes that 477 00:25:03,355 --> 00:25:06,595 Taishi doesn't have a majority, that she's fairly weak domestically, and 478 00:25:06,595 --> 00:25:10,435 if they can cause economic pain around this, maybe they can push her to the 479 00:25:10,435 --> 00:25:13,765 exit and they don't want some kind of far right nationalist who's in power here. 480 00:25:13,975 --> 00:25:17,395 You also juxtapose it with, you know, her mentor Shinzo 481 00:25:17,395 --> 00:25:19,525 Abe, who threaded the needle. 482 00:25:19,525 --> 00:25:22,345 Well here he was able to have very good relations with Xi Jinping and 483 00:25:22,345 --> 00:25:24,385 yet hold these views at the same time. 484 00:25:24,385 --> 00:25:26,845 And he didn't run afoul of China in quite the same way. 485 00:25:27,025 --> 00:25:29,575 And I also, I I wanted to ask about intentions because the 486 00:25:29,575 --> 00:25:32,425 last time this happened in 2012, it blew up in China's face. 487 00:25:32,755 --> 00:25:35,695 The exact thing happened that always happens with China when it overreacts, 488 00:25:35,695 --> 00:25:38,785 which is that everybody freaks out and starts making contingency plans 489 00:25:38,785 --> 00:25:41,515 to not, um, worry about China. 490 00:25:41,515 --> 00:25:44,455 Like in 2012, it was the rare Earth's thing where Japan starts spinning 491 00:25:44,455 --> 00:25:45,955 up its own capacity and not relying. 492 00:25:46,755 --> 00:25:51,495 On China anymore, or in 1995 where, uh, you know, China reacts very negatively 493 00:25:51,495 --> 00:25:55,635 to things happening in Taiwan and it just increases popular support, um, 494 00:25:55,995 --> 00:25:59,325 on Taiwan for exactly the opposite of what the Chinese are pushing for. 495 00:25:59,685 --> 00:26:02,265 Um, so I don't know, like, is is there a point at which China would be like, 496 00:26:02,265 --> 00:26:05,685 yes, we've achieved our objective, or do you think they just wanna play it out? 497 00:26:05,720 --> 00:26:09,405 I, I, I can't see why China's pounce on pouncing on it so much, but I dunno. 498 00:26:10,125 --> 00:26:11,265 Matt Gertken: Yeah, no, there are good points. 499 00:26:11,325 --> 00:26:16,125 Uh, as far as I can tell, this is one of those confluence of factors that's, 500 00:26:16,155 --> 00:26:19,515 this is one, one reason why I think it, it will escalate and it will get worse. 501 00:26:19,515 --> 00:26:23,145 So it, if China's reaction so far is like a four or five, it might be 502 00:26:23,145 --> 00:26:25,155 moving up, uh, in the coming months. 503 00:26:25,160 --> 00:26:28,485 And then, and then Japan also, by the way, hasn't really taken trade 504 00:26:28,545 --> 00:26:32,655 responses, but they might be forced to do that eventually as China escalates. 505 00:26:33,075 --> 00:26:37,065 So I think it was completely intentional, um, not only because 506 00:26:37,065 --> 00:26:38,805 she's the first woman, prime minister. 507 00:26:39,465 --> 00:26:42,405 But, but more importantly, well, there's some, there's some real 508 00:26:42,405 --> 00:26:43,755 interesting nuances to this. 509 00:26:43,755 --> 00:26:49,065 Like, so for example, one of the sources of grievance in Japan, in, in recent 510 00:26:49,065 --> 00:26:51,435 politics has been too much tourism. 511 00:26:52,335 --> 00:26:56,145 And that, that, that bubbled up during the election campaign. 512 00:26:56,145 --> 00:26:59,175 And the liberal democrats, you know, they've now lost both 513 00:26:59,175 --> 00:27:01,905 houses of parliament, which as you guys know, is, is very rare. 514 00:27:02,295 --> 00:27:06,315 You know, the last time that happened was 29 to 2012, and then prior to that 515 00:27:06,315 --> 00:27:08,955 it was 19 92, 93 for a very short period. 516 00:27:08,955 --> 00:27:11,145 And prior to that it was in the 1950s. 517 00:27:11,655 --> 00:27:14,715 So it's very rare for the liberal Democrats not to be in 518 00:27:14,715 --> 00:27:15,975 complete control of the country. 519 00:27:15,975 --> 00:27:17,865 Their, their party is nervous. 520 00:27:18,345 --> 00:27:19,635 Uh, they have this takeover. 521 00:27:19,635 --> 00:27:23,055 Prime Minister who doesn't have a personal mandate, doesn't have 522 00:27:23,055 --> 00:27:26,655 a majority, even becoming Prime Minister, she didn't actually get a 523 00:27:26,655 --> 00:27:28,755 majority of, of the lower house vote. 524 00:27:28,815 --> 00:27:30,615 She just got an a plurality. 525 00:27:31,125 --> 00:27:32,205 So she's very weak. 526 00:27:32,625 --> 00:27:36,105 Um, but she, the one thing she has going for her. 527 00:27:36,825 --> 00:27:41,145 The one thing that the LDP can probably crank up is some nationalism. 528 00:27:41,835 --> 00:27:46,125 And remember that they had a pacifist Buddhist party, Cudo that was 529 00:27:46,125 --> 00:27:48,855 their partner and Cudo dropped off. 530 00:27:48,855 --> 00:27:51,885 And now what they have is a more far ride, you could say 531 00:27:51,885 --> 00:27:55,485 populist or anti-establishment party, the Japanese Innovation 532 00:27:55,485 --> 00:27:57,014 Party as their coalition partner. 533 00:27:57,435 --> 00:28:01,815 And so in other words, you now have a little bit more of a national 534 00:28:01,815 --> 00:28:04,725 security oriented L-D-P-A-A. 535 00:28:04,965 --> 00:28:08,145 Um, you, they don't have their pacifist coalition partner. 536 00:28:08,355 --> 00:28:14,415 They do need to ramp up some support and they happen to want to reduce tourism. 537 00:28:14,415 --> 00:28:17,835 And the, and the biggest bulge in tourism was Chinese people traveling to 538 00:28:17,835 --> 00:28:20,325 Japan after the removal of zero COVID. 539 00:28:21,345 --> 00:28:25,485 So in effect, what she did was just pop the Chinese tourism bubble. 540 00:28:25,935 --> 00:28:29,264 And it's interesting, it has a negative effect on their economy, 541 00:28:29,715 --> 00:28:33,405 but it might actually help to reduce some of the grievances. 542 00:28:33,794 --> 00:28:37,455 It might actually generate a little bit of support for her administration, 543 00:28:37,455 --> 00:28:40,814 which otherwise doesn't have a great base of popular support. 544 00:28:41,145 --> 00:28:45,044 Now, just real quick, on the flip side though, I do think you're right 545 00:28:45,044 --> 00:28:46,695 that China pounced on this as well. 546 00:28:46,695 --> 00:28:49,455 So again, it was a sort of confluence of incidents. 547 00:28:49,485 --> 00:28:53,895 'cause from China's perspective, it was meaningful that they said that they 548 00:28:53,895 --> 00:28:55,784 openly, that they would defend Japan. 549 00:28:55,784 --> 00:28:57,945 It does sort of raise the deterrence bar. 550 00:28:58,215 --> 00:29:01,695 Um, I'm, I'm sure I haven't checked, but I'm sure it's not the first time 551 00:29:01,695 --> 00:29:07,274 the statement's ever been made, but it is a significant, uh, uh, act 552 00:29:07,274 --> 00:29:09,044 of de or statement of deterrence. 553 00:29:09,764 --> 00:29:17,205 And China also wants to lean on the allies, uh, as the United States 554 00:29:17,564 --> 00:29:20,745 is basically, Trump administration is taking a very transactional 555 00:29:20,745 --> 00:29:22,425 approach, negotiating with China. 556 00:29:22,905 --> 00:29:26,685 And this creates an opening and it's, it's actually somewhat similar to 557 00:29:26,685 --> 00:29:29,774 the way that Russia is meddling with. 558 00:29:30,195 --> 00:29:35,235 You know, airspace and NATO countries, or sabotaging railroads In Poland, there's 559 00:29:35,235 --> 00:29:39,615 this effect where Trump is raising the US as a great power negotiating bilaterally 560 00:29:39,615 --> 00:29:44,625 with Russia and China, and effectively declaring spheres of influence and, and, 561 00:29:44,685 --> 00:29:47,865 and tacitly giving them, or implying that he might give them the sphere 562 00:29:47,865 --> 00:29:49,485 of influence in Ukraine and Taiwan. 563 00:29:50,085 --> 00:29:55,665 He's declaring his own in Venezuela, and as he plays this big power, uh, sphere 564 00:29:55,665 --> 00:29:59,505 of influence game, it's the allies that kind of get the shaft and then 565 00:29:59,775 --> 00:30:05,025 his interlocutors like Russia, China, they get to actually push the envelope 566 00:30:05,025 --> 00:30:08,475 a little bit in dealing with small neighbors that are allied with the us. 567 00:30:09,345 --> 00:30:12,315 Jacob Shapiro: Yeah, well j just wait till she visits, visits, uh, 568 00:30:12,315 --> 00:30:15,195 Yassa, Kuni shrine, and then, then we'll really get some fireworks. 569 00:30:15,195 --> 00:30:17,235 Yeah, because I expect, I expect she will. 570 00:30:17,625 --> 00:30:18,315 Um, she 571 00:30:18,795 --> 00:30:19,415 Matt Gertken: probably will, probably will. 572 00:30:20,235 --> 00:30:22,125 Jacob Shapiro: Let's, let's turn to Rush Ukraine, which I think 573 00:30:22,125 --> 00:30:23,625 actually dovetails with all of this. 574 00:30:23,655 --> 00:30:25,814 Uh, I'm not gonna be able to do it all justice. 575 00:30:25,845 --> 00:30:28,274 'cause if I, if I recapped everything that happened the last week, we'd 576 00:30:28,274 --> 00:30:31,064 be here for 15 minutes and people don't wanna hear me recap things. 577 00:30:31,064 --> 00:30:33,074 But let's just do the Cliff Notes version. 578 00:30:33,375 --> 00:30:38,324 So there's this Trump administration, 28 point Ukraine peace plan. 579 00:30:38,745 --> 00:30:43,034 Unclear whether is this Russian demands that got sort of put in 580 00:30:43,034 --> 00:30:44,145 the Trump administration's mouth. 581 00:30:44,145 --> 00:30:46,455 Marco Rubio described it as a living document. 582 00:30:46,455 --> 00:30:49,814 So it was just a, like, this is where we're starting the conversation, whatever. 583 00:30:50,264 --> 00:30:53,415 Um, the Ukrainians said it was unacceptable, but came back 584 00:30:53,415 --> 00:30:55,335 and they have a 19 point plan. 585 00:30:55,875 --> 00:30:59,565 And they say they're very close, uh, on some kind of deal, but that 586 00:30:59,565 --> 00:31:04,395 Zelensky needs to, uh, speak to President Trump as quickly as possible 587 00:31:04,395 --> 00:31:07,995 to do some one-on-one negotiations, even over the Thanksgiving holiday. 588 00:31:08,535 --> 00:31:10,035 Um, so there's that. 589 00:31:10,215 --> 00:31:10,725 I love this. 590 00:31:10,725 --> 00:31:14,925 The Europeans put out their response to the plan a couple of days ago, 591 00:31:15,135 --> 00:31:17,805 not clear to me that anybody's read it beyond Britain, France, and 592 00:31:17,805 --> 00:31:20,775 Germany, but they've put out their own response to a plan as well. 593 00:31:20,835 --> 00:31:23,025 And then I, I think most interesting in all this. 594 00:31:23,195 --> 00:31:28,415 Um, is that alongside this 28 point plan or the 19 point plan or 595 00:31:28,415 --> 00:31:31,865 everything else that is going on, is also a separate proposal that 596 00:31:31,865 --> 00:31:33,845 President Trump has given to Ukraine. 597 00:31:33,845 --> 00:31:36,605 That apparently includes a security guarantee, which is 598 00:31:36,605 --> 00:31:38,855 modeled on NATO's Article five. 599 00:31:38,855 --> 00:31:40,655 So the 28 point plan. 600 00:31:40,655 --> 00:31:44,585 And Al also basically the 19 point plan say that Ukraine's not gonna be a nato, 601 00:31:44,585 --> 00:31:49,985 that's a foregone conclusion, but this separate proposal says that any future 602 00:31:50,195 --> 00:31:54,875 attack by Russia on Ukraine will be seen as an attack on the transatlantic 603 00:31:54,875 --> 00:31:58,865 community and that the US and its allies would respond accordingly. 604 00:31:58,895 --> 00:32:02,195 And it's unclear whether Vladimir Putin has seen this one, whether 605 00:32:02,195 --> 00:32:03,485 he would agree to this one. 606 00:32:03,905 --> 00:32:04,565 Anything else? 607 00:32:04,985 --> 00:32:08,015 Um, we've been here before a couple times now where the Trove 608 00:32:08,015 --> 00:32:09,365 administration says it has a plan. 609 00:32:09,395 --> 00:32:12,245 Peace is an I and they're really just talking to themselves. 610 00:32:12,545 --> 00:32:14,795 Uh, it seems like Zelensky has figured out how to play this 611 00:32:14,795 --> 00:32:16,115 situation a little bit better. 612 00:32:16,535 --> 00:32:16,985 Um. 613 00:32:17,625 --> 00:32:19,125 Russia, I don't know what Russia's doing. 614 00:32:19,125 --> 00:32:22,695 I think, uh, if you look at the plan, all the plans imply that, uh, Russia 615 00:32:22,695 --> 00:32:27,615 gets Crimea, uh, Dans luhansk and then the line of control wherever 616 00:32:27,615 --> 00:32:29,835 it is today in Zappia and Husan. 617 00:32:29,835 --> 00:32:33,675 So some significant territorial concessions above just danskin luhansk, 618 00:32:33,735 --> 00:32:37,815 but reflecting the battlefield today, um, I don't know where do, where 619 00:32:37,815 --> 00:32:38,925 do you guys wanna start with this? 620 00:32:38,925 --> 00:32:43,785 Because I look at it and I see much ado about nothing because of course 621 00:32:43,785 --> 00:32:47,985 Ukraine wants to see the, wants it to seem like it's being cooperative. 622 00:32:47,985 --> 00:32:50,625 It learned earlier this year what it looks like if it doesn't look cooperative. 623 00:32:50,985 --> 00:32:53,475 Um, it doesn't seem to me that anything that's being talked about as something 624 00:32:53,475 --> 00:32:57,075 that Russia will agree to, especially if that's separate proposal on security 625 00:32:57,075 --> 00:32:58,635 guarantees is part of the package. 626 00:32:59,025 --> 00:33:01,395 Uh, and the Europeans just seem to be talking to themselves, 627 00:33:01,395 --> 00:33:02,385 which is always the case. 628 00:33:02,385 --> 00:33:03,465 So where are you guys at? 629 00:33:03,465 --> 00:33:04,695 Do you think this is more important? 630 00:33:04,695 --> 00:33:07,665 Am I, am I guilty of, uh, dismissing it just because it's our fourth 631 00:33:07,665 --> 00:33:08,895 time around so far this year? 632 00:33:11,685 --> 00:33:12,045 Great. 633 00:33:12,195 --> 00:33:13,275 That's, that's why you're here. 634 00:33:13,275 --> 00:33:15,315 And Matt, and maybe Matt will thread the difference, or he'll 635 00:33:15,315 --> 00:33:16,485 tell me that I'm also an idiot. 636 00:33:16,485 --> 00:33:16,845 It's great. 637 00:33:16,995 --> 00:33:21,075 Matt Gertken: You know, I, I think it's significant just because I think Russia 638 00:33:21,075 --> 00:33:23,235 would be insane not to take up this deal. 639 00:33:23,235 --> 00:33:27,525 I mean, the, the Trump administration puts forward a proposal that includes, 640 00:33:27,585 --> 00:33:31,515 like, at least in the original 28 points, I'm sure they've, they're gonna tone this 641 00:33:31,515 --> 00:33:36,135 down, but they were talking about not only would Ukraine not join nato, but there 642 00:33:36,135 --> 00:33:38,565 would be no further NATO enlargement now. 643 00:33:38,865 --> 00:33:42,555 Like that's just a, like obviously the US doesn't really have a lot of immediate 644 00:33:42,555 --> 00:33:47,205 prospects for NATO enlargement, but still it would just be a, an an amazing 645 00:33:47,205 --> 00:33:51,075 own goal to just openly declare that for no reason, just throw that in there. 646 00:33:51,645 --> 00:33:55,815 Um, but also, you know, reintegrate Russia into the global economy. 647 00:33:55,815 --> 00:33:59,745 That was one of the provisions and it was effectively suggesting not 648 00:33:59,745 --> 00:34:04,335 only sanction relief for the, the oil company sanctions on Russia that 649 00:34:04,455 --> 00:34:05,835 went into effect this year, but. 650 00:34:07,065 --> 00:34:09,645 Implicitly all the sanctions since 2022. 651 00:34:10,304 --> 00:34:16,574 And, um, there were, initially, there were very close restrictions on Ukraine's Army. 652 00:34:16,574 --> 00:34:21,675 Those have now been, uh, the, the, the limit on the size of Ukraine's 653 00:34:21,675 --> 00:34:23,235 army has now been raised a little bit. 654 00:34:23,295 --> 00:34:29,145 But, um, anyway, if you can imagine a situation where Russia gets the 655 00:34:29,145 --> 00:34:32,505 additional part of donts that they're, that they've been fighting over, 656 00:34:33,074 --> 00:34:38,384 um, they get a permanent non-nuclear Ukraine that's not a part of nato. 657 00:34:38,775 --> 00:34:42,195 Uh, there's no further NATO enlargement and they get the sanctions removed. 658 00:34:42,195 --> 00:34:47,054 I mean, this is just such a victory diplomatically that you would think 659 00:34:47,054 --> 00:34:49,665 that, that the Putin administration would want to take it up. 660 00:34:49,665 --> 00:34:54,764 And then if you have Trump and Putin agree, I think it actually with, with 661 00:34:54,764 --> 00:34:59,925 some exceptions, uh, on the margins, I think that would be the end deal because. 662 00:35:00,585 --> 00:35:05,625 Those two can obviously force anything on Ukraine, but I also think the u Europeans 663 00:35:05,625 --> 00:35:11,505 would, would basically need to, uh, sort of acquiesce in a situation where the 664 00:35:11,505 --> 00:35:15,464 US is already taking all the blame for doing this sort of dirty compromise. 665 00:35:16,035 --> 00:35:20,085 And anyway, so, so my sense is that it, it could be pretty significant. 666 00:35:20,085 --> 00:35:23,924 Now, I don't actually think the US will forswear all future NATO enlargement. 667 00:35:24,495 --> 00:35:29,384 And the, and you're right, Jacob, the security guarantees is really key here. 668 00:35:29,384 --> 00:35:32,595 And I, I think the us I think what we've seen over and over is that the 669 00:35:32,595 --> 00:35:36,645 West doesn't really want to give real obligatory security guarantees, and 670 00:35:36,674 --> 00:35:38,055 Russia wouldn't accept them anyway. 671 00:35:38,055 --> 00:35:43,694 And so the result is some piece of paper that has to look robust enough 672 00:35:43,694 --> 00:35:47,355 on paper that it's better than the Budapest memorandum, even though 673 00:35:47,444 --> 00:35:50,955 everyone will walk away knowing that it's the same as the Budapest memorandum. 674 00:35:52,245 --> 00:35:54,795 Marko Papic: Okay, so here's what I think is critical here. 675 00:35:54,855 --> 00:35:56,654 I think Europe's role is really critical. 676 00:35:58,830 --> 00:36:01,350 I think both of you're massively dismissing it. 677 00:36:02,250 --> 00:36:02,760 Why? 678 00:36:03,570 --> 00:36:07,140 Because I think that secretly Europeans want the war to continue. 679 00:36:08,460 --> 00:36:12,960 And I've only really come to that conclusion very recently because the war 680 00:36:12,960 --> 00:36:18,570 started in many ways because the Biden administration decided to support a 681 00:36:18,570 --> 00:36:21,000 much more aggressive Ukraine, obviously. 682 00:36:21,000 --> 00:36:24,120 And Putin is to blame for the war in Ukraine. 683 00:36:24,120 --> 00:36:26,340 I'm not discounting that, but there was an agreement. 684 00:36:26,340 --> 00:36:29,850 It was the Minsk agreement negotiating by the Europeans. 685 00:36:30,300 --> 00:36:32,220 It was unfair to Ukraine, but whatever. 686 00:36:32,220 --> 00:36:33,030 Europeans didn't care. 687 00:36:33,030 --> 00:36:35,880 They were like, look, let's just put this toes 'cause we don't wanna war. 688 00:36:37,230 --> 00:36:38,220 And then the war happened. 689 00:36:39,390 --> 00:36:41,220 It was very painful for Europe. 690 00:36:41,490 --> 00:36:45,120 The entire continent went into a current account deficit due to energy costs. 691 00:36:45,210 --> 00:36:46,290 Very, very bad. 692 00:36:46,290 --> 00:36:48,000 People were talking about Europeans freezing. 693 00:36:48,270 --> 00:36:49,290 They survived that. 694 00:36:50,040 --> 00:36:57,390 Um, and now three years into the war like this is given Europe as a joint entity, 695 00:36:57,450 --> 00:37:00,359 a resolved et to use European language. 696 00:37:00,419 --> 00:37:02,490 You know, they're nation building. 697 00:37:02,970 --> 00:37:06,029 I mean, hell, they're even doing things like m and a in 698 00:37:06,029 --> 00:37:07,919 financial system because of this. 699 00:37:07,919 --> 00:37:15,720 You know, like this war is, has infused Europe with so much energy, 700 00:37:15,839 --> 00:37:18,899 whether it's to re-arm, Germany's talking about conscription. 701 00:37:19,410 --> 00:37:23,609 European Commission is talking about completing the single market integration. 702 00:37:24,270 --> 00:37:26,609 And I think that Europeans just know they're on the hook for 703 00:37:26,609 --> 00:37:30,029 Ukraine either way, whether you're rebuilding it or financing the war. 704 00:37:30,930 --> 00:37:34,680 So I actually think that Europe is comfortable continuing to support 705 00:37:34,680 --> 00:37:38,129 Ukraine and because of that, on its own, on its own, by the way. 706 00:37:38,745 --> 00:37:41,055 Any notion that they can't do it is ludicrous. 707 00:37:41,055 --> 00:37:41,805 Of course they can. 708 00:37:42,015 --> 00:37:43,095 Number one, they have money. 709 00:37:43,095 --> 00:37:44,385 Number two, they have printing presses. 710 00:37:44,385 --> 00:37:49,905 If they need to print the money, they printed money to buy more expensive gas. 711 00:37:49,905 --> 00:37:50,925 Like relax. 712 00:37:50,955 --> 00:37:52,095 Europe is rich. 713 00:37:52,185 --> 00:37:53,475 They can finance this war. 714 00:37:53,475 --> 00:37:55,275 And third of all, yeah, they do have weapons. 715 00:37:55,365 --> 00:37:57,855 They do enough to keep the Russians at bay. 716 00:37:58,485 --> 00:38:00,495 And by the way, the Russians are so bad at war. 717 00:38:00,525 --> 00:38:05,130 Lemme just remind everyone listening to this that they conquer a 718 00:38:05,135 --> 00:38:11,625 dica in February, 2024, and now they're going to conquer Rosk. 719 00:38:12,255 --> 00:38:15,045 For those of you who can't use Google Map, let me just tell 720 00:38:15,045 --> 00:38:17,505 you, they are 65 kilometers away. 721 00:38:17,865 --> 00:38:21,045 It took the Russians two years to move 65 kilometers. 722 00:38:21,315 --> 00:38:25,515 So pumped the brakes on this whole idea that like this war has to end tomorrow 723 00:38:25,695 --> 00:38:27,225 or else Ukraine will fall apart. 724 00:38:28,035 --> 00:38:30,495 I think Europe is comfortable financing them and they're 725 00:38:30,495 --> 00:38:32,355 secretly not really telling why. 726 00:38:32,415 --> 00:38:34,335 'cause it's very self-serving in Machiavellian. 727 00:38:34,485 --> 00:38:36,675 So the question then becomes, what does Ukraine want? 728 00:38:36,675 --> 00:38:38,745 And here, Jacob, I I agree with you on this. 729 00:38:38,955 --> 00:38:43,065 I think Zelensky has gotten better and not just being like, you 730 00:38:43,065 --> 00:38:46,725 know, so, um, black and white. 731 00:38:46,815 --> 00:38:48,375 So one in zero, so binary. 732 00:38:48,705 --> 00:38:52,395 He's saying like, look, let me read the proposal now. 733 00:38:53,445 --> 00:38:53,865 Why? 734 00:38:53,865 --> 00:38:56,355 Because he, I think he wants to extract the most he can. 735 00:38:56,805 --> 00:38:59,085 If you're gonna sell a piece of real estate, you're, you're 736 00:38:59,085 --> 00:39:00,195 gonna want a high price. 737 00:39:00,195 --> 00:39:02,715 And so if he's gonna give up any territory, if he's going to 738 00:39:02,715 --> 00:39:06,975 even, even softly agree to like, disagree with Moscow for the next 739 00:39:06,975 --> 00:39:08,625 50 years, he needs something back. 740 00:39:08,625 --> 00:39:09,945 And I think that's what you're getting. 741 00:39:10,275 --> 00:39:10,635 Jacob. 742 00:39:10,635 --> 00:39:11,205 I agree with you. 743 00:39:11,205 --> 00:39:15,435 And he now knows Europeans are committed to financing this war. 744 00:39:15,915 --> 00:39:21,345 So he does have some cards, you know, and so I think, um. 745 00:39:21,839 --> 00:39:24,990 You know, one thing I would introduce to this is some polling though that 746 00:39:24,990 --> 00:39:28,440 does suggest that Ukrainians are starting to lose faith in the war. 747 00:39:29,700 --> 00:39:33,660 And so I have a poll from the, uh, Kiev International Institute of 748 00:39:33,660 --> 00:39:38,279 Sociology, which has really good polling on just sentiment of Ukrainians. 749 00:39:39,450 --> 00:39:43,529 It shows that at the end of 2023, only about 20% of Ukrainians 750 00:39:43,560 --> 00:39:47,460 agreed with the view that Ukraine may give up some territory to 751 00:39:47,460 --> 00:39:49,529 achieve peace as soon as possible. 752 00:39:50,129 --> 00:39:54,990 So only one in five Ukrainians at the end of 23 was like, sure, 753 00:39:54,990 --> 00:39:56,190 we'll need to give some territory. 754 00:39:56,190 --> 00:40:01,140 Now it's at 40, it's at 40%, and it's increased significantly. 755 00:40:01,140 --> 00:40:05,460 And not just because Trump got elected and they feel abandoned. 756 00:40:05,520 --> 00:40:05,850 No, no, no. 757 00:40:05,850 --> 00:40:08,460 That's not why it actually started declining well before that. 758 00:40:09,569 --> 00:40:15,390 Now, at a, a similar poll shows that there's still about 60% of Ukrainians who 759 00:40:15,390 --> 00:40:17,549 are willing to endure the war forever. 760 00:40:19,530 --> 00:40:22,290 But I think that we need to kind of really think about these two poles. 761 00:40:22,290 --> 00:40:27,840 Yes, I think Ukrainians are willing to fight Russians forever if Russians want 762 00:40:27,840 --> 00:40:31,710 to conquer Kiev or Eastern Ukraine. 763 00:40:31,710 --> 00:40:35,760 But what the Russians are saying by acquiescing to this 28 point plan is 764 00:40:35,760 --> 00:40:39,660 that they just want the northwestern villagers tos, that they're too 765 00:40:39,660 --> 00:40:41,700 incompetent to conquer themselves. 766 00:40:43,140 --> 00:40:47,850 And so just to put a point to conclude all of this, I think Europeans and 767 00:40:47,850 --> 00:40:52,710 Ukrainians are effectively saying, bro, if you want it, come and get it. 768 00:40:53,400 --> 00:40:56,970 Oh, but you are really bad at actual war. 769 00:40:57,570 --> 00:40:59,790 Why are we gonna give up everything? 770 00:41:00,330 --> 00:41:01,980 Because you don't know how to fight. 771 00:41:02,010 --> 00:41:03,180 I mean, this is the truth. 772 00:41:03,270 --> 00:41:05,850 The truth is Russians are terrible at this. 773 00:41:06,390 --> 00:41:09,180 We're talking about a territory the size of like Delaware 774 00:41:09,240 --> 00:41:11,070 that they cannot conquer for. 775 00:41:11,985 --> 00:41:13,155 Four years almost now. 776 00:41:13,665 --> 00:41:16,875 And so the question I think that we need to answer, and I'm being a little 777 00:41:16,875 --> 00:41:22,365 facetious here, but a little aggressive, but the question is like, why, why give 778 00:41:22,365 --> 00:41:24,075 Putin that last sliver of territory? 779 00:41:24,075 --> 00:41:25,785 Why not just like, squeeze him? 780 00:41:25,875 --> 00:41:27,885 Now you might say, well, you're squeezing rock, uh, Ukraine too. 781 00:41:27,885 --> 00:41:30,915 And I've always been the first to say that anyone who's followed this 782 00:41:30,915 --> 00:41:34,125 podcast or heard me speak, I'm always like, Hey, you're bleeding Ukraine. 783 00:41:34,125 --> 00:41:37,845 But Ukrainians seem to be kind of okay with that. 784 00:41:37,875 --> 00:41:41,565 Europeans be, seem to be okay with financing it for 785 00:41:41,565 --> 00:41:43,395 Machiavellian self-serving reasons. 786 00:41:44,265 --> 00:41:49,215 You know, like why not just force Russia to prove itself in the field of battle? 787 00:41:49,215 --> 00:41:50,805 Which again, it hasn't done. 788 00:41:50,835 --> 00:41:54,945 To restate a very critical point, it took him a year and 789 00:41:54,945 --> 00:41:56,745 a half to move 65 kilometers. 790 00:41:56,985 --> 00:41:59,175 Let's pump the brakes on the Russians knowing what to do. 791 00:41:59,475 --> 00:42:00,525 Uh, they don't. 792 00:42:01,185 --> 00:42:04,185 Why not force them to go that extra mile themselves? 793 00:42:04,815 --> 00:42:04,995 Yeah. 794 00:42:04,995 --> 00:42:06,460 Anyways, I'm open to counters, feel like 795 00:42:06,460 --> 00:42:09,345 Jacob Shapiro: I, I feel like sometimes my job is to be the optimist to your 796 00:42:09,345 --> 00:42:12,165 bathing and nihilism, Marco, but I feel like I'm gonna be even more 797 00:42:12,165 --> 00:42:13,755 cynical than you here for a moment. 798 00:42:13,935 --> 00:42:16,515 First of all though, I wanna push back on this thing about Dan Nets because this 799 00:42:16,515 --> 00:42:20,380 proposal is not just an Nets, it's, it's about large swaths of Zappia and Herone. 800 00:42:20,380 --> 00:42:20,950 Now, I think now already 801 00:42:20,950 --> 00:42:21,165 Marko Papic: control. 802 00:42:21,165 --> 00:42:21,620 Wait, wait, wait. 803 00:42:21,705 --> 00:42:22,380 Jacob, wait, wait. 804 00:42:22,605 --> 00:42:22,965 Hold on. 805 00:42:22,995 --> 00:42:24,315 I gotta, I gotta interrupt you right away. 806 00:42:24,320 --> 00:42:24,555 Go, go. 807 00:42:24,555 --> 00:42:27,075 It's just about that, and here's why. 808 00:42:27,405 --> 00:42:31,875 Russians control the rest and Ukrainians have no chance to recon it for as bad as 809 00:42:32,415 --> 00:42:34,305 Russians are at offense or Ukrainians. 810 00:42:34,425 --> 00:42:38,025 So the reason it is just about Northwestern Duns is because that's the 811 00:42:38,025 --> 00:42:43,545 only piece of territory that Ukrainians currently control, that the 28 point plan 812 00:42:43,545 --> 00:42:45,585 would force them to give to the Russians. 813 00:42:46,155 --> 00:42:47,955 Jacob Shapiro: And, and to your point, if, if you're thinking about this as 814 00:42:47,955 --> 00:42:51,945 a real estate transaction, then giving up this land that has been absolutely 815 00:42:51,945 --> 00:42:55,515 destroyed and mined and everything else, and saying, okay, you can have this really 816 00:42:55,515 --> 00:42:57,045 terrible land that you've destroyed. 817 00:42:57,045 --> 00:42:57,525 Like okay. 818 00:42:57,525 --> 00:42:59,235 You could sort of see the diminishing returns on that. 819 00:42:59,715 --> 00:43:02,745 Um, I've been fairly complimentary of Zelensky all year. 820 00:43:02,745 --> 00:43:05,055 I pushed back against you when you said that he made a mistake in the 821 00:43:05,055 --> 00:43:09,020 White House, but you have Yeah, the 28 and I concede Yeah, I co see 822 00:43:09,020 --> 00:43:09,100 Marko Papic: that. 823 00:43:09,260 --> 00:43:10,035 I think you were right. 824 00:43:10,425 --> 00:43:13,005 Jacob Shapiro: Well, the 28 point plan said that he had to call 825 00:43:13,005 --> 00:43:14,715 elections with within a hundred days. 826 00:43:14,895 --> 00:43:18,165 And the 19 point plan says that he has to call elections as soon as possible. 827 00:43:18,165 --> 00:43:21,525 So if we're being cynical about Zelensky, it's political future, he has every 828 00:43:21,525 --> 00:43:25,875 incentive for this not to work because as soon as this deal goes into, into effect, 829 00:43:25,875 --> 00:43:29,025 he has to start getting the wheels turning on Ukrainian elections and probably he 830 00:43:29,025 --> 00:43:30,525 doesn't win the next Ukrainian election. 831 00:43:30,525 --> 00:43:32,445 If I had to guess, I don't know if you have a poll on that. 832 00:43:32,805 --> 00:43:34,215 I also just wanted to call out. 833 00:43:34,575 --> 00:43:39,045 Um, this is all about the money, like one of the most shocking things to me. 834 00:43:39,690 --> 00:43:45,779 The 28 point plan was this provision that, um, hold, I'm gonna pull it up here. 835 00:43:45,990 --> 00:43:50,850 That, so that all these frozen Russian assets are gonna be invested in US 836 00:43:50,850 --> 00:43:54,630 LED efforts to rebuild and invest in Ukraine, and that the US will 837 00:43:54,630 --> 00:43:58,680 receive 50% of the profits from this venture and that the United States and 838 00:43:58,680 --> 00:44:01,319 Russia will put together their own. 839 00:44:01,740 --> 00:44:03,600 Fund investment vehicle. 840 00:44:03,600 --> 00:44:04,980 I don't know what the heck to call it. 841 00:44:05,399 --> 00:44:07,415 Uh, to, to, to quote, I 842 00:44:07,415 --> 00:44:08,970 Marko Papic: had to mute myself 'cause I'm laughing. 843 00:44:08,970 --> 00:44:11,160 'cause you were, you were going with that, I'm sorry. 844 00:44:11,670 --> 00:44:14,339 Jacob Shapiro: No, we're, we're aimed at strengthening relations and increasing 845 00:44:14,339 --> 00:44:17,879 common interest to create a strong incentive not to return to the conflict. 846 00:44:17,940 --> 00:44:20,100 And the European, they're the ones who wanna rebuild it. 847 00:44:20,100 --> 00:44:22,920 So everybody's looking at the situation and being like, no, no, we wanna be 848 00:44:22,920 --> 00:44:26,370 in line to get the money to rebuild these things that war has destroyed. 849 00:44:26,640 --> 00:44:27,480 So there's that. 850 00:44:27,899 --> 00:44:32,220 Um, the the last thing though, I, I just wanna say is that, um, it seems to me that 851 00:44:32,220 --> 00:44:34,980 the part of this that is gonna make this like every single other time, and this is 852 00:44:34,980 --> 00:44:38,370 where I'd, I'd appreciate pushback from you guys, is this separate proposal about. 853 00:44:38,800 --> 00:44:41,230 A security guarantee to Ukraine. 854 00:44:41,230 --> 00:44:45,580 Because even if Putin gets some document that says that, okay, NATO's not gonna 855 00:44:45,580 --> 00:44:50,290 be enlarged and Ukraine is not gonna join nato, there's a parallel proposal that 856 00:44:50,290 --> 00:44:52,270 says Ukraine gets a security guarantee. 857 00:44:52,300 --> 00:44:54,520 That is like the NATO security guarantee. 858 00:44:54,520 --> 00:44:54,580 Yeah. 859 00:44:54,940 --> 00:44:58,630 So is it, is Putin really gonna say yes when part of this deal is that 860 00:44:58,630 --> 00:45:01,360 there's a separate deal that says no, they won't join nato, but they, 861 00:45:01,600 --> 00:45:02,950 but they get a security guarantee. 862 00:45:02,950 --> 00:45:04,870 We'll call it the Trump security guarantee. 863 00:45:04,870 --> 00:45:06,670 It's not a NATO security guarantee. 864 00:45:06,670 --> 00:45:07,630 It's not Article five. 865 00:45:07,810 --> 00:45:09,730 We're not calling it that, but we're giving them that. 866 00:45:10,150 --> 00:45:14,080 I don't see a planet on which Vladimir Putin can acquiesce to that. 867 00:45:14,080 --> 00:45:15,160 That's the red line, isn't it? 868 00:45:15,160 --> 00:45:15,700 Matt Gertken: Am I crazy? 869 00:45:15,760 --> 00:45:20,020 Well, so, so I, the thing is that the security guarantee that they may end 870 00:45:20,020 --> 00:45:22,450 up producing could just be a document. 871 00:45:22,450 --> 00:45:26,530 You know, that that's the thing is if it doesn't spell out that it really would 872 00:45:26,530 --> 00:45:33,430 be a coordinated military intervention by the multilateral guarantor, then. 873 00:45:34,095 --> 00:45:35,805 Then that's just a piece of paper, right? 874 00:45:35,805 --> 00:45:41,295 That people can say, okay, you know, uh, we guarantee Ukraine security, but 875 00:45:41,355 --> 00:45:43,275 they don't make any concrete pledges. 876 00:45:43,275 --> 00:45:46,935 So for example, it would have to be referred to the UN 877 00:45:46,935 --> 00:45:48,495 Security Council and discussed. 878 00:45:48,495 --> 00:45:50,174 And of course, we all know where that goes. 879 00:45:50,505 --> 00:45:54,525 So I'm just saying that I, I, so I agree with you in the sense that 880 00:45:54,525 --> 00:45:56,205 Russia can't agree to it if it's real. 881 00:45:56,805 --> 00:46:01,755 But if it's unreal, then what you could have is simply a, a situ. Now this is 882 00:46:01,755 --> 00:46:05,835 maybe where you guys won't agree, but Russia can basically accept the terms the 883 00:46:05,835 --> 00:46:07,845 US is offering to get the sanction relief. 884 00:46:09,285 --> 00:46:12,345 And the question is, does it really need the rest of the don't 885 00:46:12,345 --> 00:46:14,835 asks for domestic consumption. 886 00:46:15,345 --> 00:46:18,345 I, I actually think that Putin doesn't actually need it. 887 00:46:18,345 --> 00:46:21,555 He can actually freeze his line on the current line of control. 888 00:46:22,125 --> 00:46:26,205 He can, the American agreement can state that this is supposed 889 00:46:26,205 --> 00:46:27,944 to be a, a demilitarized zone. 890 00:46:29,220 --> 00:46:31,020 And that would be the implication. 891 00:46:31,020 --> 00:46:35,160 But you don't actually have to have Ukrainians pull back immediately. 892 00:46:35,610 --> 00:46:40,980 You just have the Russians stop shooting and then the Americans lift sanctions. 893 00:46:41,040 --> 00:46:43,110 And that's why I think those are the two key players here. 894 00:46:43,110 --> 00:46:46,410 Because if, if Russia stop shooting and the US lift 895 00:46:46,410 --> 00:46:48,360 sanctions on Russia, then yeah. 896 00:46:48,360 --> 00:46:53,400 I mean, Ukraine can, can, you know, try to take European money to re 897 00:46:53,400 --> 00:46:56,940 escalate the war, but at that point the Europeans might start thinking 898 00:46:56,940 --> 00:46:59,190 that that's a waste of time. 899 00:46:59,190 --> 00:47:02,100 So look, look, you know, that's why I think this could actually lead somewhere. 900 00:47:02,759 --> 00:47:04,230 Marko Papic: Look, I, I agree too, Matt. 901 00:47:04,230 --> 00:47:06,210 I, I do think it can lead to something. 902 00:47:06,240 --> 00:47:10,050 And all I'm saying is this, it has to come down to Ukraine saying 903 00:47:10,050 --> 00:47:11,460 like, okay, we've had enough. 904 00:47:12,150 --> 00:47:14,940 Uh, that's who I actually think is the only player. 905 00:47:14,970 --> 00:47:17,430 So that's where maybe I disagree with you, Matt, like if Russia 906 00:47:17,430 --> 00:47:21,000 and Russia and America come to an agreement, but Ukraine's like, no. 907 00:47:22,155 --> 00:47:24,735 And they're financed by somebody who's like, yeah, we'll support 908 00:47:24,735 --> 00:47:25,965 you for our own reasons. 909 00:47:26,025 --> 00:47:30,615 Um, where I would go here though is that I don't think Russia 910 00:47:30,615 --> 00:47:32,265 cares about strategic interests. 911 00:47:32,370 --> 00:47:33,735 I, I, I'm in that camp. 912 00:47:33,765 --> 00:47:38,025 I, I might be the only guy on that island, you know, I got a condo on it, 913 00:47:38,115 --> 00:47:40,695 you know, bill Browder comes and visits. 914 00:47:40,785 --> 00:47:42,135 We, we order pizza. 915 00:47:42,255 --> 00:47:44,775 'cause he's, I think the only other guy who has my view, which is like, 916 00:47:44,955 --> 00:47:46,245 I don't think Putin gives a fuck. 917 00:47:47,505 --> 00:47:48,645 Like, nato, sch tomato. 918 00:47:48,645 --> 00:47:49,605 He's gonna be dead. 919 00:47:49,695 --> 00:47:49,995 You know? 920 00:47:49,995 --> 00:47:50,835 He's cool, man. 921 00:47:50,835 --> 00:47:51,465 Like, whatever. 922 00:47:51,465 --> 00:47:53,385 Like give him security guarantees. 923 00:47:53,385 --> 00:47:54,405 I got what I wanted. 924 00:47:55,275 --> 00:47:57,105 I like the creativity of your thinking though. 925 00:47:57,105 --> 00:48:02,835 Matt, could he freeze the lines here and like not care about the 926 00:48:02,835 --> 00:48:04,545 northwestern corner of the Nets? 927 00:48:04,905 --> 00:48:05,505 Maybe. 928 00:48:05,505 --> 00:48:08,965 I think though, that he wants to call up his buddy George W. 929 00:48:08,965 --> 00:48:12,645 Bush, get the mission accomplished banner, hang it. 930 00:48:12,810 --> 00:48:15,779 You know, declare victory and it's, it's neater. 931 00:48:15,779 --> 00:48:19,020 It's just like neater that it is all of don't bus, 932 00:48:19,025 --> 00:48:21,570 Matt Gertken: but, but if, but if he gets, if he gets to shake the US 933 00:48:21,570 --> 00:48:26,640 President's hand and, and the US defacto recognizes this territory and there's 934 00:48:26,640 --> 00:48:30,600 sanction removal, are Russian people not going to see that as a victory? 935 00:48:30,600 --> 00:48:30,660 Marko Papic: Yeah. 936 00:48:31,110 --> 00:48:32,430 I like the creativity of that. 937 00:48:32,460 --> 00:48:33,060 That's cool. 938 00:48:33,060 --> 00:48:33,120 Yeah. 939 00:48:33,180 --> 00:48:36,570 I think you could be able to sell it if, if the three of us were in his like 940 00:48:36,660 --> 00:48:41,490 office at the end of that incredibly long phallic table, like the three 941 00:48:41,490 --> 00:48:43,740 of us are like on the very other tip. 942 00:48:44,100 --> 00:48:44,490 Right. 943 00:48:44,865 --> 00:48:45,210 I, I don't 944 00:48:45,210 --> 00:48:45,750 Matt Gertken: wanna be there, 945 00:48:46,440 --> 00:48:49,440 Marko Papic: you know, but if we were and you proposed that to Vladimir, 946 00:48:49,440 --> 00:48:53,100 I think he would be like, yeah, I like the, I like, you know, I like 947 00:48:53,100 --> 00:48:54,240 the cut of your jib, but listen 948 00:48:54,360 --> 00:48:55,080 Matt Gertken: hat on the head, what I'm, 949 00:48:55,080 --> 00:48:56,100 Marko Papic: where am I getting with this? 950 00:48:56,160 --> 00:49:01,110 I, what I'm getting at this is that ultimately, like the reason Europeans 951 00:49:01,140 --> 00:49:03,990 are as aggressive, I think as they are right now, and the reason they 952 00:49:03,990 --> 00:49:07,200 always come out and say this is stupid, everyone thinks is 'cause they're 953 00:49:07,590 --> 00:49:09,450 defending liberal internationalism. 954 00:49:10,515 --> 00:49:13,365 Everybody thinks they're defending the sanctity of borders, right? 955 00:49:13,365 --> 00:49:15,285 That's what the commentary in America kind of says. 956 00:49:15,615 --> 00:49:19,425 And what I think is like, once the Europeans realized, and it took 957 00:49:19,425 --> 00:49:24,135 him two years or so, it took me this long to figure out, and by the 958 00:49:24,135 --> 00:49:27,255 way, it was a, a help of my Greek buddy, Costas, he knows who he is. 959 00:49:27,705 --> 00:49:28,425 Love your brother. 960 00:49:28,425 --> 00:49:29,685 But he like convinced me of this. 961 00:49:29,715 --> 00:49:31,425 'cause I was like, just argue with my buddy. 962 00:49:31,785 --> 00:49:32,895 And he's like, no, no, no man. 963 00:49:32,895 --> 00:49:34,905 Like I think Europeans are cool with this. 964 00:49:34,965 --> 00:49:36,255 He's right and here's why. 965 00:49:37,215 --> 00:49:40,725 But he's only right now that we know that Putin does not have strategic 966 00:49:40,725 --> 00:49:42,855 plans, that he's not gonna use nukes. 967 00:49:43,635 --> 00:49:44,745 Finland is in nato. 968 00:49:44,745 --> 00:49:46,365 And he's like, what Finland's in nato? 969 00:49:46,365 --> 00:49:47,205 Like, I didn't notice. 970 00:49:47,205 --> 00:49:47,775 Whatever. 971 00:49:47,895 --> 00:49:48,735 I'm not hearing it. 972 00:49:48,735 --> 00:49:49,545 Blah, blah, blah, blah. 973 00:49:49,545 --> 00:49:50,085 No it's not. 974 00:49:50,085 --> 00:49:54,735 You know, like once Europeans realize this really is just about Russian 975 00:49:54,735 --> 00:49:58,455 domestic politics, when they realize that Putin is just doing this for 976 00:49:58,455 --> 00:50:01,695 petty reasons, he really does just want Northwestern donates villages. 977 00:50:01,935 --> 00:50:03,465 Then Europeans get to kind of. 978 00:50:04,560 --> 00:50:06,600 The threat of nuclear war is much lower. 979 00:50:06,600 --> 00:50:08,670 The polls get to fly around their F sixteens. 980 00:50:08,670 --> 00:50:13,260 Everybody gets to like, like puff out their chest, be peacocks and build 981 00:50:13,260 --> 00:50:17,220 their defense industry, which is just a fiscal stimulus and just a jobs program. 982 00:50:17,640 --> 00:50:21,570 My point is that that's what emboldens them to support Ukraine because this 983 00:50:21,570 --> 00:50:24,960 has now become a war over villages. 984 00:50:25,590 --> 00:50:27,120 Nobody can find on Google Map. 985 00:50:27,510 --> 00:50:31,590 People don't even know where this is, and because of that, I think the pettiness 986 00:50:31,590 --> 00:50:36,900 of it could extend the conflict, although I am in your camp, Matt, that I think we 987 00:50:36,900 --> 00:50:39,780 do have to discuss it even though it's the fourth time and Jacob St. Tired. 988 00:50:40,710 --> 00:50:43,710 I think that, yeah, I think that we are the closest we've ever 989 00:50:43,710 --> 00:50:47,070 been, but it really just comes down to Ukraine and how exhausted 990 00:50:47,070 --> 00:50:49,050 they are as another modern bodies. 991 00:50:50,100 --> 00:50:54,240 Also Emin pointed out, I'm just shouting out some of my Greek Armenian buddies. 992 00:50:54,509 --> 00:50:57,870 Clearly I'm informed by ottman and discussions about this. 993 00:50:57,930 --> 00:50:58,830 Real, real quick. 994 00:50:58,834 --> 00:50:59,459 I, I wanna 995 00:50:59,459 --> 00:51:01,230 Jacob Shapiro: say something real quick, which is, first of all, you 996 00:51:01,230 --> 00:51:04,680 said about Russians being shitty at war, Marco, I just, this idea 997 00:51:04,680 --> 00:51:08,189 of a US Russia joint venture for economic prosperity in the region. 998 00:51:08,310 --> 00:51:09,480 You think that Russians are bad at war? 999 00:51:09,480 --> 00:51:10,770 Watch what they do with capitalism. 1000 00:51:10,770 --> 00:51:11,910 They're really shitty at that. 1001 00:51:11,910 --> 00:51:13,890 I can't believe we want a joint venture with these people. 1002 00:51:14,100 --> 00:51:18,299 And to your point about Putin being petty, he's only had to downgrade his ambitions. 1003 00:51:18,299 --> 00:51:20,279 His real goal is to conquer all of Ukraine. 1004 00:51:20,339 --> 00:51:23,490 He believes that Ukraine doesn't exist and that Ukraine should be part. 1005 00:51:23,490 --> 00:51:24,149 Of course he does. 1006 00:51:24,149 --> 00:51:25,319 He's not totally believe 1007 00:51:26,250 --> 00:51:26,339 Marko Papic: that. 1008 00:51:26,339 --> 00:51:26,380 No, he doesn't care. 1009 00:51:26,380 --> 00:51:26,615 Yes does. 1010 00:51:26,615 --> 00:51:27,134 No, he doesn't. 1011 00:51:27,395 --> 00:51:27,870 Jacob Shapiro: He deeply care. 1012 00:51:27,870 --> 00:51:28,109 Look, 1013 00:51:28,350 --> 00:51:31,500 Marko Papic: that's like, I believe that I will, uh, get a six pack. 1014 00:51:31,529 --> 00:51:32,069 You know what I mean? 1015 00:51:32,069 --> 00:51:33,149 Like, it doesn't matter. 1016 00:51:33,149 --> 00:51:35,640 Like he, he doesn't, he, he can't get it. 1017 00:51:35,900 --> 00:51:37,070 He's not gonna get it. 1018 00:51:37,220 --> 00:51:39,800 And so therefore he's like, eh, I'll take what I can. 1019 00:51:40,010 --> 00:51:40,880 I don't think he does. 1020 00:51:41,000 --> 00:51:43,190 I don't think Putin looks beyond his lifetime. 1021 00:51:43,820 --> 00:51:47,690 Somebody who's strategic truly believes that I'm here to help 1022 00:51:47,690 --> 00:51:49,190 Russia gain, its whatever. 1023 00:51:49,190 --> 00:51:51,380 I just don't think he thinks like that at all. 1024 00:51:51,380 --> 00:51:53,480 I think he just wants to be a trillionaire, which he is. 1025 00:51:53,540 --> 00:51:54,260 God bless him. 1026 00:51:54,350 --> 00:51:55,200 Jacob Shapiro: Well, and and that's it. 1027 00:51:55,365 --> 00:51:57,440 And we'll, and we'll never get down to the end of it to, but to 1028 00:51:57,440 --> 00:51:58,520 me it comes down to this point. 1029 00:51:58,520 --> 00:51:58,610 Yes. 1030 00:51:58,610 --> 00:52:01,400 Maybe I'm making it too simplistic, which is, I don't think, and, 1031 00:52:01,400 --> 00:52:02,060 and maybe you'll push it. 1032 00:52:02,210 --> 00:52:05,300 Push back against us by saying he's just petty and he wants the villages in esque. 1033 00:52:05,300 --> 00:52:08,120 But I don't think Putin can agree to anything that includes 1034 00:52:08,120 --> 00:52:09,800 a security guarantee for Ukraine. 1035 00:52:10,160 --> 00:52:12,680 And I don't think Zelinsky can agree to anything that doesn't 1036 00:52:12,680 --> 00:52:16,160 have a secu, a robust security guarantee for Ukraine itself. 1037 00:52:16,160 --> 00:52:17,120 And to your point, I agree. 1038 00:52:17,120 --> 00:52:19,580 I think Zelensky and Ukraine can keep fighting that the, and that 1039 00:52:19,580 --> 00:52:20,930 the Europeans will support them. 1040 00:52:21,020 --> 00:52:26,540 And I don't think some sort of elegant one China esque sort of diplomatic, you know, 1041 00:52:26,540 --> 00:52:28,580 wordsmithing is gonna get us around that. 1042 00:52:28,580 --> 00:52:32,030 Either there is a security guarantee or there isn't a security guarantee. 1043 00:52:32,180 --> 00:52:35,990 And unless we, unless one of them have given up because of their domestic, 1044 00:52:36,350 --> 00:52:39,800 uh, constraints, like I think we'll just be in the exact same disagreement. 1045 00:52:39,800 --> 00:52:42,530 Because Trump will look at the Russians and be like, okay, do we have a deal? 1046 00:52:42,530 --> 00:52:46,070 And Vladimir will be like, well, have you torn up the security guarantee thing? 1047 00:52:46,700 --> 00:52:47,885 And Trump will be like, no, no, no. 1048 00:52:47,890 --> 00:52:48,980 I gave them the real proposal. 1049 00:52:48,980 --> 00:52:50,180 He is like, okay, well there's no deal. 1050 00:52:50,180 --> 00:52:52,610 And then he goes to Zelensky and says, do we have a deal? 1051 00:52:52,610 --> 00:52:54,110 And he is like, well, where's my security guarantee? 1052 00:52:54,170 --> 00:52:56,690 It doesn't have to be nato, but it has to be a security guarantee. 1053 00:52:57,315 --> 00:53:00,885 Matt Gertken: But see, this is why I, this is why we're Overrating 1054 00:53:00,945 --> 00:53:06,825 Ukraine's agency here, because they, they would have to fight on with, I 1055 00:53:06,825 --> 00:53:10,755 mean, without any American support, no intelligence support, no funding. 1056 00:53:11,265 --> 00:53:14,475 Uh, I, I take Marco's point, you know, Europe may be willing to extend the 1057 00:53:14,475 --> 00:53:20,535 funding for longer than we expect, but how long and can it really compensate for 1058 00:53:20,535 --> 00:53:22,455 the total absence of American cooperation? 1059 00:53:22,455 --> 00:53:25,275 I mean, what if America starts actively undermining Ukraine? 1060 00:53:25,515 --> 00:53:25,965 Marko Papic: Well, long, 1061 00:53:25,965 --> 00:53:26,865 Matt Gertken: well, long enough. 1062 00:53:26,900 --> 00:53:32,835 What if, what if America threatens to, to, to give Russia control of the Black Sea? 1063 00:53:32,835 --> 00:53:37,425 You know, I mean, like, it's just, it's, it's such a, it's such a ne, I 1064 00:53:37,425 --> 00:53:41,265 mean, specifically Odessa, like a key part of this negotiation is that Ru is 1065 00:53:41,265 --> 00:53:45,195 that Ukraine can still export goods, and you would expect that the Americans 1066 00:53:45,195 --> 00:53:48,435 would uphold their normal interest of saying, well, you know, Russia's not 1067 00:53:48,435 --> 00:53:49,995 gonna be able to turn this into a lake. 1068 00:53:50,415 --> 00:53:56,025 But at the Americans, let the Russians casually blockade Ukrainian exports. 1069 00:53:56,385 --> 00:53:58,905 I mean, that's pretty devastating, even from a European point of 1070 00:53:58,905 --> 00:54:01,605 view to their economic viability. 1071 00:54:01,605 --> 00:54:03,535 So I it is just, I'm not sure. 1072 00:54:03,535 --> 00:54:03,885 Not really. 1073 00:54:04,245 --> 00:54:05,745 I'm not sure that, yeah, I think it is. 1074 00:54:06,585 --> 00:54:08,125 You, of course, they've got railroad, their 1075 00:54:08,125 --> 00:54:10,815 Marko Papic: exports have, well they, their exports have rerouted through 1076 00:54:10,815 --> 00:54:13,275 the Baltic and through other ports. 1077 00:54:13,275 --> 00:54:14,715 Look, look, look, here's what I would say. 1078 00:54:14,835 --> 00:54:15,075 How No, 1079 00:54:15,075 --> 00:54:17,085 Matt Gertken: no, but the, but the point here though, just to drive 1080 00:54:17,085 --> 00:54:22,215 this a little further, is Ukraine can wage, you're saying that Ukraine 1081 00:54:22,215 --> 00:54:27,045 can wage this war independently with just European support indefinitely. 1082 00:54:27,705 --> 00:54:29,805 And I'm thinking, no, not indefinitely. 1083 00:54:30,045 --> 00:54:30,405 Yeah. 1084 00:54:30,405 --> 00:54:31,330 You know, maybe another year. 1085 00:54:31,590 --> 00:54:32,025 I'm saying long 1086 00:54:32,025 --> 00:54:32,955 Marko Papic: enough, low. 1087 00:54:32,955 --> 00:54:37,035 Yeah, long enough that Jacob has to listen to this for the fifth and 1088 00:54:37,050 --> 00:54:39,735 sixth time and, and long enough. 1089 00:54:39,735 --> 00:54:43,215 Look, what we're debating here is whether this is over right now. 1090 00:54:44,655 --> 00:54:45,075 Like, no. 1091 00:54:45,075 --> 00:54:45,255 Yeah. 1092 00:54:45,260 --> 00:54:48,285 Can Ukraine, can Ukraine, uh, wage the war for another six 1093 00:54:48,285 --> 00:54:50,055 months to get a better deal? 1094 00:54:50,205 --> 00:54:50,835 Matt Gertken: Definitely. 1095 00:54:51,105 --> 00:54:54,795 Marko Papic: And the other thing is Russians to prove that they can conquer 1096 00:54:54,795 --> 00:54:57,075 more than 60 kilometers in 18 months. 1097 00:54:57,615 --> 00:54:59,085 Like, those are my questions, right? 1098 00:54:59,085 --> 00:54:59,535 Like, yeah. 1099 00:54:59,535 --> 00:55:03,615 My point is just this, Matt, if Northwest Ettes has to be handed 1100 00:55:03,615 --> 00:55:09,075 over to Russia, I think Ukraine and Europe are gonna say why? 1101 00:55:10,065 --> 00:55:10,725 Matt Gertken: Let them prove 1102 00:55:10,725 --> 00:55:10,935 Marko Papic: it. 1103 00:55:12,120 --> 00:55:15,615 Matt Gertken: You, you, to your point, even my, my own view that 1104 00:55:15,615 --> 00:55:19,695 I'm sort of expounding here, it still allows for another 12 months. 1105 00:55:19,695 --> 00:55:23,175 Because if you think about Russia's, Russia's own belief is that they can 1106 00:55:23,235 --> 00:55:27,675 break that barrier, obtain that last piece of land, and then Trump before 1107 00:55:27,675 --> 00:55:31,005 the midterm is going to wanna deal just as badly as he wants one right now. 1108 00:55:31,005 --> 00:55:33,660 So, you know their own perspectives, but you just answered 1109 00:55:33,960 --> 00:55:34,340 Marko Papic: six, nine months. 1110 00:55:34,340 --> 00:55:35,925 You just answered maybe. 1111 00:55:35,925 --> 00:55:39,255 So here's a, here's a potential solution to this. 1112 00:55:40,455 --> 00:55:41,775 Russians eventually win. 1113 00:55:42,674 --> 00:55:46,544 What they want, which is this northwestern corner of Don's the size 1114 00:55:46,544 --> 00:55:49,995 of Delaware, but it just takes them another 18 to 24 months to do it. 1115 00:55:49,995 --> 00:55:52,455 I'm not saying that's actually gonna happen. 1116 00:55:52,455 --> 00:55:56,234 I think Ukraine will sell that piece of territory for something cooler. 1117 00:55:56,325 --> 00:56:00,524 The problem for Ukraine is this, the problem for Ukraine is that they just 1118 00:56:00,524 --> 00:56:04,245 let Russia conquer that organically. 1119 00:56:04,334 --> 00:56:07,604 Well then you don't extract anything from the West, namely from Trump, 1120 00:56:07,725 --> 00:56:09,915 who seems to be obsessed with a deal. 1121 00:56:10,575 --> 00:56:11,415 You, you see what I mean? 1122 00:56:11,685 --> 00:56:12,025 Matt Gertken: Yeah, yeah, 1123 00:56:12,254 --> 00:56:12,404 Marko Papic: yeah. 1124 00:56:12,464 --> 00:56:15,915 Like if Ukraine, like there was a EU membership in that 28 point 1125 00:56:15,915 --> 00:56:17,265 plan, there's all sorts of goodies. 1126 00:56:17,294 --> 00:56:21,404 Like you don't want to just sit there and let Russia just slowly and 1127 00:56:21,404 --> 00:56:25,064 competently and terribly eventually get that you wanna sell it. 1128 00:56:25,964 --> 00:56:28,334 Because I think even with European or even with American 1129 00:56:28,334 --> 00:56:30,285 help, you're gonna lose that. 1130 00:56:30,345 --> 00:56:31,515 We all agree with that. 1131 00:56:31,544 --> 00:56:32,625 Russians are terrible. 1132 00:56:32,714 --> 00:56:36,645 But yes, eventually in 36 months, they'll conquer 24 1133 00:56:36,645 --> 00:56:37,995 months, 18 months they'll get it. 1134 00:56:37,995 --> 00:56:40,245 So I think Ukraine does have incentive. 1135 00:56:41,130 --> 00:56:42,180 To get a deal. 1136 00:56:42,180 --> 00:56:46,380 I just don't know if they can parlay European support for European Machiavelli 1137 00:56:46,380 --> 00:56:50,279 reasons for, uh, for a little bit better deal from Americans and Russians. 1138 00:56:50,279 --> 00:56:54,180 Now, one thing I, I have for you guys is why does Trump want the deal? 1139 00:56:54,180 --> 00:56:57,420 And like the answer is noble peace breaks, but wait, let's pump the brakes. 1140 00:56:57,900 --> 00:57:01,980 I think, Jacob, what you're pointing out all these cool deals with Russia 1141 00:57:01,980 --> 00:57:03,330 and we're gonna have joint ventures. 1142 00:57:03,779 --> 00:57:08,100 There's two ways that a liberal might say what's going on here. 1143 00:57:08,610 --> 00:57:11,640 Trump wants a noble peace prize and second, Trump wants to make 1144 00:57:11,640 --> 00:57:14,850 money with, you know, Vladimir Putin in the joint venture. 1145 00:57:15,240 --> 00:57:16,230 Okay, fine. 1146 00:57:16,680 --> 00:57:17,730 I have a third option. 1147 00:57:18,270 --> 00:57:18,450 Jacob Smulian: Okay. 1148 00:57:19,110 --> 00:57:26,430 Marko Papic: I think that a bunch of third rate strategists that Trump 1149 00:57:26,430 --> 00:57:30,930 has employed as his foreign policy advisors have convinced him that 1150 00:57:30,930 --> 00:57:32,940 he can flip Russia away from China. 1151 00:57:34,140 --> 00:57:34,260 Jacob Shapiro: Oh God. 1152 00:57:34,260 --> 00:57:37,620 It just smells too the, the reverse, the return of the reverse Nixon. 1153 00:57:37,620 --> 00:57:39,390 God, somebody like the hair on fire. 1154 00:57:39,600 --> 00:57:39,660 Marko Papic: Yeah. 1155 00:57:39,660 --> 00:57:41,130 It just smells like kid though. 1156 00:57:41,130 --> 00:57:44,250 It smells like it, it smells like, Hey Russia, we're gonna do 1157 00:57:44,250 --> 00:57:45,630 all these great things together. 1158 00:57:45,635 --> 00:57:46,185 Well, Marco know. 1159 00:57:46,190 --> 00:57:46,425 Well, I, 1160 00:57:46,425 --> 00:57:47,850 Jacob Shapiro: I, I actually showed a letter of this, I dunno if you read 1161 00:57:47,850 --> 00:57:50,370 some of the reporting on this, but apparently the genesis for getting 1162 00:57:50,370 --> 00:57:55,080 serious about this deal was the Jared Kushner saw the, the success around 1163 00:57:55,080 --> 00:57:58,980 the Gaza piece plan and really pushed Trump to say, now's the time that you 1164 00:57:58,980 --> 00:58:00,570 can really go for Ukraine, Russia. 1165 00:58:00,570 --> 00:58:01,410 So he went to Jared. 1166 00:58:01,410 --> 00:58:03,810 I think what you're smelling is, uh, is that he went to Jared. 1167 00:58:03,810 --> 00:58:04,050 But listen, 1168 00:58:04,335 --> 00:58:08,460 Marko Papic: what what I would say about this is like, I actually, I really think 1169 00:58:08,460 --> 00:58:14,460 Trump's like enthusiasm, naivete, and optimism is, is good for the world. 1170 00:58:14,460 --> 00:58:16,290 Like, he's like, I can flip anyone. 1171 00:58:16,440 --> 00:58:18,750 And he takes it as a challenge that someone says No. 1172 00:58:19,080 --> 00:58:24,870 The only problem is that if Russia has any sense, like if Russia 1173 00:58:24,870 --> 00:58:29,430 has modest iq, geopolitical, it knows it can't trust America. 1174 00:58:29,940 --> 00:58:32,130 You cannot trust America on this. 1175 00:58:32,730 --> 00:58:36,840 You are two years away from a OC becoming president, scrapping 1176 00:58:36,900 --> 00:58:39,060 every single bit of that deal. 1177 00:58:39,720 --> 00:58:40,350 You know what I mean? 1178 00:58:40,350 --> 00:58:44,010 So like, if you are Russia, I, I just think the only thing I would 1179 00:58:44,010 --> 00:58:47,250 say, if anyone is listening to this podcast from the White House, I 1180 00:58:47,250 --> 00:58:48,510 would just tell you this right now. 1181 00:58:49,230 --> 00:58:51,390 You can't, like, they're not gonna listen to you. 1182 00:58:51,450 --> 00:58:52,050 You know what I mean? 1183 00:58:52,050 --> 00:58:54,570 They're not gonna make, they're, you're not gonna be able to reverse 1184 00:58:54,570 --> 00:58:58,950 the Russians because they can't trust the next administration. 1185 00:58:58,950 --> 00:59:00,960 It may not be that you are not being genuine. 1186 00:59:01,470 --> 00:59:04,230 It's just that it's very difficult, I think to do that. 1187 00:59:04,230 --> 00:59:07,080 But it does smell to me like that could be one of the reasons. 1188 00:59:07,080 --> 00:59:10,020 But yes, I do also think that Trump just wants to end the war. 1189 00:59:10,110 --> 00:59:11,820 Maybe it's, but, but all thinks it's pointless. 1190 00:59:11,825 --> 00:59:11,915 Also, 1191 00:59:11,995 --> 00:59:15,120 Matt Gertken: Al also though, there's no way that American strategists are 1192 00:59:15,120 --> 00:59:18,990 thinking like, I know what you're saying, Marco, but they're not thinking 1193 00:59:18,990 --> 00:59:22,980 that Russia's trustworthy on the issue of realigning to rejoin the West. 1194 00:59:22,980 --> 00:59:25,350 And especially not given everything you've just said about Europe. 1195 00:59:25,350 --> 00:59:25,530 Right. 1196 00:59:25,530 --> 00:59:29,250 If Europe's whole idea is that they're going to soak the Russians. 1197 00:59:29,625 --> 00:59:34,125 And mobilize their own economy by opposition to Russia, then that certainly 1198 00:59:34,125 --> 00:59:37,905 doesn't pave the way for a realignment of Russia, even if the Americans did want it 1199 00:59:37,905 --> 00:59:39,405 and did think that Russia could deliver. 1200 00:59:39,405 --> 00:59:39,705 It's 1201 00:59:40,275 --> 00:59:43,065 Marko Papic: as you know, Matt, it's something that's very popular in 1202 00:59:43,065 --> 00:59:44,745 the more right of center circles. 1203 00:59:44,955 --> 00:59:48,225 Yeah, and by the way, I myself have written about this, one of the worst 1204 00:59:48,225 --> 00:59:54,165 piece of geopolitical analysis I've ever done was in 2021 when I thought 1205 00:59:54,165 --> 00:59:55,695 that Russia was about to flip. 1206 00:59:56,655 --> 00:59:57,255 And you know, like, 1207 00:59:57,285 --> 00:59:57,345 Music: yeah, 1208 00:59:57,615 --> 01:00:00,465 Marko Papic: they had an opportunity to, they had an opportunity, they 1209 01:00:00,465 --> 01:00:04,485 had an opening, but I think that they correctly knew that that wouldn't work. 1210 01:00:04,485 --> 01:00:07,665 Matt Gertken: Well that, you know, that goes back to the issue here, which 1211 01:00:07,665 --> 01:00:12,645 is that those two economies actually are fairly complimentary these days. 1212 01:00:12,645 --> 01:00:15,135 I think one thing I hear over and over again from people who were 1213 01:00:15,135 --> 01:00:19,275 sort of bred in the international relations and academia background. 1214 01:00:19,680 --> 01:00:22,955 Is that Russia and China don't like each other, and it is all these, well, that's 1215 01:00:22,955 --> 01:00:23,790 Marko Papic: just, that's bullshit. 1216 01:00:23,795 --> 01:00:23,995 Yeah. 1217 01:00:24,060 --> 01:00:24,240 Matt Gertken: Yeah. 1218 01:00:24,240 --> 01:00:26,490 These irrelevant points about the fact, well, yeah. 1219 01:00:26,490 --> 01:00:29,250 I mean, a lot of countries don't like each other. 1220 01:00:29,250 --> 01:00:30,330 Nobody likes each other. 1221 01:00:30,330 --> 01:00:36,089 The, the point is that the, the China in the 1960s that was competing with Russia 1222 01:00:36,390 --> 01:00:42,240 was not a resource import dependent China, that was heavily industrialized, you 1223 01:00:42,240 --> 01:00:47,040 know, and Russia at that time wasn't as starving for capital as they are today. 1224 01:00:47,040 --> 01:00:50,250 So the relationship is actually pretty strong. 1225 01:00:50,250 --> 01:00:54,509 And it would be, it would be completely irresponsible for their strategists on 1226 01:00:54,509 --> 01:00:56,670 either side to try to betray each other. 1227 01:00:57,150 --> 01:01:01,980 And it would also be irresponsible for the Americans to truly betray Russia for, 1228 01:01:02,100 --> 01:01:07,350 for the embrace of, I mean, to embrace, to betray Europe for the embrace of Russia. 1229 01:01:07,830 --> 01:01:10,980 So these things are just unfortunately, pretty fixed. 1230 01:01:11,355 --> 01:01:12,435 Um, Trump. 1231 01:01:12,435 --> 01:01:13,035 You hear that a 1232 01:01:13,035 --> 01:01:13,485 Marko Papic: lot though. 1233 01:01:13,485 --> 01:01:13,845 Matt Gertken: Trump. 1234 01:01:14,025 --> 01:01:14,265 Trump. 1235 01:01:14,265 --> 01:01:15,765 Well, I know you, you do Trump. 1236 01:01:15,765 --> 01:01:19,425 I'm just saying Trump gets some credit for recognizing that kicking down the 1237 01:01:19,425 --> 01:01:22,905 can, kicking the can down the road is actually a good policy, you know, and 1238 01:01:22,905 --> 01:01:25,635 basically prolonging the negotiation. 1239 01:01:25,635 --> 01:01:31,365 Because, 'cause if you don't, you, you wind up in a bifurcated, you know, Russo, 1240 01:01:31,365 --> 01:01:35,055 Chinese block versus the west, which I think is where we're going anyway. 1241 01:01:35,145 --> 01:01:38,235 But there's a big difference between going there tomorrow 1242 01:01:38,235 --> 01:01:39,555 and going there in 20 years. 1243 01:01:39,615 --> 01:01:39,855 Jacob Shapiro: Yeah. 1244 01:01:39,855 --> 01:01:42,975 I, I want to get to that, but before we go, can, can, can conspiracy Jacob, 1245 01:01:42,975 --> 01:01:44,295 just make a brief appearance here? 1246 01:01:44,295 --> 01:01:45,315 'cause I'm, I'm feeling please. 1247 01:01:45,375 --> 01:01:46,395 I'm feeling the tingles. 1248 01:01:46,515 --> 01:01:47,115 Marko Papic: We need a hat. 1249 01:01:47,115 --> 01:01:48,290 We need a hat for, for it. 1250 01:01:48,290 --> 01:01:48,430 I need the 1251 01:01:48,570 --> 01:01:48,650 Jacob Shapiro: cons. 1252 01:01:48,730 --> 01:01:49,665 I don't think I have a hat in here. 1253 01:01:49,665 --> 01:01:50,835 I'll, I'll get a conspiracy. 1254 01:01:50,840 --> 01:01:51,490 Jacob it cone hat. 1255 01:01:51,495 --> 01:01:51,735 Okay. 1256 01:01:51,735 --> 01:01:52,485 This is conspiracy. 1257 01:01:52,485 --> 01:01:52,725 Jacob. 1258 01:01:52,725 --> 01:01:55,455 I have literally, wait, I have, I have a birthday crown that my daughter gave me. 1259 01:01:55,455 --> 01:01:55,815 Hold on. 1260 01:01:55,815 --> 01:01:56,295 I can do that. 1261 01:01:57,315 --> 01:01:57,675 Marko Papic: Yes, that. 1262 01:01:57,735 --> 01:01:57,975 All right. 1263 01:01:57,975 --> 01:01:58,185 This is 1264 01:01:58,185 --> 01:01:58,515 Jacob Shapiro: great. 1265 01:01:58,635 --> 01:02:00,585 Here we go guys, for those of you watching on YouTube. 1266 01:02:00,585 --> 01:02:00,795 All right. 1267 01:02:00,795 --> 01:02:01,275 Conspiracy. 1268 01:02:01,275 --> 01:02:04,755 Jacob, here's my unfounded, uh, conspiracy maybe. 1269 01:02:05,115 --> 01:02:07,995 Maybe when Donald's on the phone with Xi Jinping, what Xi Jinping is 1270 01:02:07,995 --> 01:02:11,595 saying is, you know this Vladimir Guy, he's losing it a little bit. 1271 01:02:11,625 --> 01:02:13,035 I hung out with him a couple weeks ago. 1272 01:02:13,035 --> 01:02:15,855 He's talking about harvesting organs from young children. 1273 01:02:15,855 --> 01:02:18,015 Like the guy has lost the plot a little bit. 1274 01:02:18,015 --> 01:02:20,595 So could you please stabilize this? 1275 01:02:20,595 --> 01:02:23,295 Because if he keeps doing what he's doing, he's gonna fall and I'm gonna 1276 01:02:23,295 --> 01:02:25,035 have a total cluster fuck on my border. 1277 01:02:25,035 --> 01:02:26,925 So you want me to buy the soybeans? 1278 01:02:26,925 --> 01:02:29,235 You want the trade war, uh, to be relaxed. 1279 01:02:29,235 --> 01:02:32,505 You want everything else you make, you make a Russia, Ukraine peace deal. 1280 01:02:32,805 --> 01:02:36,405 And then like you could talk with us about buying your soybeans and other things. 1281 01:02:36,405 --> 01:02:37,605 How do you like conspiracy? 1282 01:02:37,605 --> 01:02:37,935 Jacob? 1283 01:02:37,935 --> 01:02:38,415 You like that? 1284 01:02:38,595 --> 01:02:39,015 Is that good? 1285 01:02:39,345 --> 01:02:39,885 Matt Gertken: That was good. 1286 01:02:40,395 --> 01:02:40,755 That was good. 1287 01:02:40,755 --> 01:02:44,385 I mean, it does sound like a lot of the stuff I see on the internet. 1288 01:02:46,850 --> 01:02:51,555 I mean, no offense, but I mean, the thing is this, this is, there's 1289 01:02:51,555 --> 01:02:55,335 this responsible stakeholder version of China that just will not die. 1290 01:02:55,335 --> 01:02:58,335 And I, and I don't say this out of like hatred of China, I just 1291 01:02:58,335 --> 01:03:00,530 say it out of observation where. 1292 01:03:01,185 --> 01:03:05,654 China's supposed to be the one that, um, that brings this war to a conclusion 1293 01:03:05,745 --> 01:03:09,165 and really, it, it could pretty easily if it, if it actually did, uh, start 1294 01:03:09,165 --> 01:03:11,654 to punish Russia on the import channel. 1295 01:03:11,654 --> 01:03:13,995 And, and it just doesn't really do that 'cause it doesn't 1296 01:03:13,995 --> 01:03:14,835 see an interest in doing it. 1297 01:03:14,835 --> 01:03:14,925 I 1298 01:03:14,925 --> 01:03:16,335 Marko Papic: like the way Matt said. 1299 01:03:16,725 --> 01:03:18,975 It sounds like what I see on the internet. 1300 01:03:18,975 --> 01:03:20,925 Matt, what do you think we do for a living here? 1301 01:03:20,925 --> 01:03:23,115 I know my friend know actually we don't do it for a living 1302 01:03:23,115 --> 01:03:24,495 'cause we don't get paid, but 1303 01:03:25,005 --> 01:03:28,845 Matt Gertken: Well, uh, I guess, I guess, uh, maybe, I mean on the 1304 01:03:28,845 --> 01:03:31,545 social, uh, on the social networking, 1305 01:03:31,785 --> 01:03:33,585 Jacob Shapiro: who knows of the inter reps May, maybe there's a 1306 01:03:33,585 --> 01:03:37,425 joint Russia venture for two pod two cousins in Russia to join with us. 1307 01:03:37,425 --> 01:03:37,875 I don't know. 1308 01:03:38,130 --> 01:03:38,925 You know, Jacob, 1309 01:03:38,955 --> 01:03:40,185 Marko Papic: you're gonna get aggregated. 1310 01:03:40,665 --> 01:03:40,935 Jacob Shapiro: That's right. 1311 01:03:40,935 --> 01:03:41,955 That view is gonna get, we want me to 1312 01:03:41,955 --> 01:03:42,675 Matt Gertken: be aggregated. 1313 01:03:43,365 --> 01:03:43,875 Marko Papic: That's right. 1314 01:03:43,875 --> 01:03:44,175 That would be 1315 01:03:44,175 --> 01:03:44,505 Matt Gertken: great. 1316 01:03:44,509 --> 01:03:44,630 That's right. 1317 01:03:44,865 --> 01:03:45,950 That's a great problem for us to have. 1318 01:03:45,950 --> 01:03:48,435 But to your point, but to your point, Jacob, you could, you could 1319 01:03:48,435 --> 01:03:49,665 be onto something in this way though. 1320 01:03:50,250 --> 01:03:54,720 If, if China actually delivers on this energy dialogue that Xi Jinping and 1321 01:03:54,720 --> 01:03:59,850 Trump talked about, and we see a large increase in oil purchases, then that does 1322 01:03:59,850 --> 01:04:03,000 implicitly, uh, displace Russian imports. 1323 01:04:03,000 --> 01:04:07,350 And would I think it would signal that like tactically Xi Jinping is 1324 01:04:07,350 --> 01:04:10,830 telling Putin it's time to, it's time to move toward a ceasefire. 1325 01:04:11,220 --> 01:04:11,279 Yeah. 1326 01:04:11,285 --> 01:04:13,379 I I don't think he really has an interest in doing that, 1327 01:04:13,379 --> 01:04:14,879 but maybe that would happen. 1328 01:04:15,089 --> 01:04:17,790 Jacob Shapiro: Un unless he has a sense that things are getting bad in Russia. 1329 01:04:17,850 --> 01:04:21,240 'cause I, I think I'm more on team Ukrainian agency than any 1330 01:04:21,240 --> 01:04:23,609 of you because I think Ukraine can continue this indefinitely. 1331 01:04:23,609 --> 01:04:27,120 I think they've shown that they can use their drones to knock out Russian energy 1332 01:04:27,120 --> 01:04:28,529 infrastructure and everything else. 1333 01:04:28,535 --> 01:04:32,040 And Zelensky is finally in the position where he can look at Vladimir Putin and 1334 01:04:32,040 --> 01:04:33,480 say, fine, you wanna do this forever? 1335 01:04:33,480 --> 01:04:36,810 Like, yes, I can't take back these villages in donk, but I 1336 01:04:36,810 --> 01:04:38,730 can make it really hurt for you. 1337 01:04:38,819 --> 01:04:39,960 Like I finally have some, it's as 1338 01:04:39,960 --> 01:04:40,410 Marko Papic: symmetric 1339 01:04:40,980 --> 01:04:41,160 Jacob Shapiro: so. 1340 01:04:41,160 --> 01:04:41,370 Well, it's 1341 01:04:41,370 --> 01:04:41,970 Marko Papic: as symmetric. 1342 01:04:41,970 --> 01:04:43,410 You're right, it's asymmetric. 1343 01:04:43,410 --> 01:04:45,975 Like, you know, and by the way, all of this. 1344 01:04:46,920 --> 01:04:50,340 Is a product of Russia just not being tough enough in a way to use like 1345 01:04:50,340 --> 01:04:52,050 tactical nukes and all this other stuff. 1346 01:04:52,650 --> 01:04:54,870 They're not willing to take it to that level. 1347 01:04:54,870 --> 01:04:56,490 So Ukraine can now poke them. 1348 01:04:57,000 --> 01:05:03,000 Europeans feel relatively safe to finance this and I think it's brought us down 1349 01:05:03,000 --> 01:05:04,500 to what, where, I agree with Matt. 1350 01:05:04,500 --> 01:05:05,790 I think we're close to the end. 1351 01:05:06,300 --> 01:05:06,570 Music: Okay. 1352 01:05:06,685 --> 01:05:06,805 I 1353 01:05:06,805 --> 01:05:10,650 Marko Papic: just think that, you know, like Zelensky just needs a little 1354 01:05:10,650 --> 01:05:14,400 bit more, he needs to prove himself to be a little bit tougher and then 1355 01:05:14,400 --> 01:05:16,560 to sell for the highest, uh, price. 1356 01:05:16,740 --> 01:05:17,880 That's not a bad strategy. 1357 01:05:17,880 --> 01:05:20,250 And I, and by the way, that was your original point, Jacob, 1358 01:05:20,520 --> 01:05:22,920 when you and I disagreed, so. 1359 01:05:25,340 --> 01:05:27,525 Jacob Shapiro: A a a broken clock is right twice a day, Marco. 1360 01:05:27,975 --> 01:05:30,975 Um, okay, so let, let's close then with this. 1361 01:05:30,975 --> 01:05:32,685 'cause we, I think we have about 20 minutes left. 1362 01:05:32,715 --> 01:05:34,575 I don't know how guy long you guys can go, but I have about 1363 01:05:34,575 --> 01:05:35,655 20 minutes before I have to go. 1364 01:05:36,015 --> 01:05:38,385 Um, so let's say that you guys are both right. 1365 01:05:38,415 --> 01:05:39,495 Let's say that I'm wrong about this. 1366 01:05:39,495 --> 01:05:42,225 And let's say that we get a deal, whether it's the 19, well, what are we right 1367 01:05:42,225 --> 01:05:42,555 Marko Papic: about? 1368 01:05:42,705 --> 01:05:43,425 Jacob Shapiro: Let's say that there's a deal. 1369 01:05:43,425 --> 01:05:44,955 Can we just like a deal in the 1370 01:05:44,955 --> 01:05:45,780 Marko Papic: next, what's two months? 1371 01:05:45,780 --> 01:05:46,845 Like in the next three months? 1372 01:05:46,875 --> 01:05:47,340 Yeah, in the next, 1373 01:05:47,420 --> 01:05:49,155 Matt Gertken: I I think the, I think the window, the window 1374 01:05:49,155 --> 01:05:50,775 should be the US midterm. 1375 01:05:50,775 --> 01:05:53,925 That's, that's the window here because Russia might wanna push one 1376 01:05:53,925 --> 01:05:58,185 more time in the spring and Trump wants a deal before the midterm. 1377 01:05:58,185 --> 01:06:02,295 And that's where if, if Putin just delays forever, then at some point. 1378 01:06:02,730 --> 01:06:05,910 Trump probably loses appetite to give him so many goodies. 1379 01:06:06,000 --> 01:06:07,859 Jacob Shapiro: Okay, well let's let, let's take that then. 1380 01:06:07,859 --> 01:06:09,420 Let's say there's a deal by the midterms. 1381 01:06:09,420 --> 01:06:10,890 I think that's a little long, but that's fine. 1382 01:06:10,890 --> 01:06:11,880 Let's, let's grant the point. 1383 01:06:11,880 --> 01:06:13,170 So there's a deal by the midterms. 1384 01:06:13,380 --> 01:06:15,750 How does the world change geopolitically? 1385 01:06:15,750 --> 01:06:18,089 Like when our clients are coming to us, like many months from now, 1386 01:06:18,089 --> 01:06:20,819 before the midterms and, and there is a deal, what does that look like? 1387 01:06:20,850 --> 01:06:23,790 Are we talking about joint Russia, US ventures running 1388 01:06:23,790 --> 01:06:25,140 around to rebuild Ukraine? 1389 01:06:25,410 --> 01:06:29,310 Are we talking about, you know, unlimited corn and sunflower and 1390 01:06:29,310 --> 01:06:31,350 wheat exports from the Black Sea? 1391 01:06:31,350 --> 01:06:33,060 So we don't have to worry about that anymore? 1392 01:06:33,060 --> 01:06:36,299 Are we talking about Ukraine being welcomed into the eu? 1393 01:06:36,330 --> 01:06:38,970 Like how, what does is, is Russia getting flipped? 1394 01:06:38,970 --> 01:06:40,080 Is China getting flipped? 1395 01:06:40,080 --> 01:06:40,890 Who's getting flipped? 1396 01:06:40,890 --> 01:06:41,640 What's getting flipped? 1397 01:06:41,640 --> 01:06:44,430 Like if there is a deal, like what's the next day look like 1398 01:06:44,430 --> 01:06:45,540 from your guys' perspective? 1399 01:06:47,640 --> 01:06:50,430 Marko Papic: Well, I don't think there's any more, uh, exports. 1400 01:06:50,460 --> 01:06:52,680 So, uh, I published a chart. 1401 01:06:52,680 --> 01:06:58,380 It's now, um, a little bit outdated, but uh, actually Ukraine is back 1402 01:06:58,500 --> 01:07:00,509 in terms of its exports of wheat. 1403 01:07:02,025 --> 01:07:06,735 To, you know, it's not completely back to the pre-war levels, 1404 01:07:06,735 --> 01:07:09,915 but it is pretty much there. 1405 01:07:10,155 --> 01:07:13,815 You know, you're talking maybe a couple of million tons more of 1406 01:07:13,815 --> 01:07:18,435 annual we exports, so it's down to about 16, maybe a little bit higher. 1407 01:07:18,435 --> 01:07:24,525 It was at 20, you know, so maybe you could get a couple of million 1408 01:07:24,525 --> 01:07:29,415 barrels of, uh, a coup, couple of million tons of wheat out of Ukraine. 1409 01:07:29,415 --> 01:07:29,835 More. 1410 01:07:30,645 --> 01:07:35,775 I think the world is changed because, um, yeah, I do think EU membership 1411 01:07:35,775 --> 01:07:36,945 is on the cards for Ukraine. 1412 01:07:37,005 --> 01:07:37,695 Absolutely. 1413 01:07:37,965 --> 01:07:41,025 I think the EU wants those migrants through the labor market. 1414 01:07:41,625 --> 01:07:44,415 I think they want to rebuild Ukraine, and I think there'll be 1415 01:07:44,415 --> 01:07:46,515 a, like a feeding frenzy for that. 1416 01:07:46,935 --> 01:07:51,255 I think Ukraine becomes a garrison state, and quite frankly, I think it's gonna 1417 01:07:51,255 --> 01:07:52,965 be a great economic development story. 1418 01:07:53,355 --> 01:07:54,435 Yes, there's corruption. 1419 01:07:54,435 --> 01:07:55,455 Yes, there's problems. 1420 01:07:55,455 --> 01:07:57,915 Honestly, those things exist in South Korea to this day. 1421 01:07:58,634 --> 01:08:00,884 Um, and it didn't matter, you know? 1422 01:08:00,884 --> 01:08:04,995 So I think, uh, you've got a very large piece of European territory that's 1423 01:08:04,995 --> 01:08:08,085 gonna get rebuilt and it's gonna be a pretty interesting source of innovation. 1424 01:08:08,295 --> 01:08:09,134 Dynamism. 1425 01:08:09,134 --> 01:08:10,095 These are veterans. 1426 01:08:10,125 --> 01:08:13,185 This is their greatest generation rebuilding. 1427 01:08:13,275 --> 01:08:17,205 Like you got, you're talking like 35 million Ukrainians just, you 1428 01:08:17,205 --> 01:08:20,265 know, are just bulled up about holding Russia at the gates. 1429 01:08:20,265 --> 01:08:20,894 It's incredible. 1430 01:08:20,894 --> 01:08:22,035 I think it's a cool story. 1431 01:08:22,545 --> 01:08:26,444 Um, on all the other stuff, I think we, there isn't much that 1432 01:08:26,805 --> 01:08:30,314 difference, you know, like, I don't think we can go pre February. 1433 01:08:30,675 --> 01:08:33,675 I don't think the sanctions are gonna be completely removed against Russia. 1434 01:08:34,425 --> 01:08:37,154 Uh, they, I mean, they, they're already exporting all the oil 1435 01:08:37,154 --> 01:08:38,564 that we're gonna export anyways. 1436 01:08:38,865 --> 01:08:43,274 Diesel, that's something that is gonna flood the markets. 1437 01:08:43,484 --> 01:08:48,345 I think that could cause oil prices to go down as, as Russian 1438 01:08:48,345 --> 01:08:49,455 diesel floods the market. 1439 01:08:49,455 --> 01:08:54,285 But like, I think any trade that happens after the war ends is temporary. 1440 01:08:54,390 --> 01:08:57,420 I don't think Europeans don't rem militarize. 1441 01:08:57,420 --> 01:08:58,020 I think they do. 1442 01:08:58,020 --> 01:09:00,510 As I said earlier, I think it's a fiscal and jobs program. 1443 01:09:00,720 --> 01:09:02,550 It's like the nation building program. 1444 01:09:03,240 --> 01:09:05,130 Uh, I don't think they reverse all of those things. 1445 01:09:05,130 --> 01:09:08,340 So I think what happened in February, 2022, we're in that world. 1446 01:09:08,340 --> 01:09:10,170 We're in a post February, 2022 world. 1447 01:09:10,440 --> 01:09:14,370 It's not like central banks who bought all the gold because America weaponized 1448 01:09:14,370 --> 01:09:16,890 the dollar are gonna like, oh, we don't need this goal, let's sell it. 1449 01:09:16,920 --> 01:09:17,160 You know? 1450 01:09:17,160 --> 01:09:17,700 You know what I mean? 1451 01:09:17,700 --> 01:09:22,650 Like, I think what happened in February, 2022 is still here with us. 1452 01:09:22,680 --> 01:09:26,610 I think there's just a regional story of like, wow, Ukraine is the 1453 01:09:26,610 --> 01:09:30,000 next South Korea, effectively the next economic development story. 1454 01:09:31,710 --> 01:09:32,670 Matt Gertken: Yeah, it's interesting. 1455 01:09:32,910 --> 01:09:38,790 Um, one thing is that I see it as sort of the best of both worlds for Europe. 1456 01:09:38,820 --> 01:09:41,190 You know, Marco, you were making the case that Europe would actually 1457 01:09:41,190 --> 01:09:45,270 prolong the war, but Europe can greatly benefit by the idea that the 1458 01:09:45,270 --> 01:09:49,710 war is sort of put, uh, closed off and put at least behind a ceasefire. 1459 01:09:50,850 --> 01:09:53,280 Um, but then all the other things you said are still true. 1460 01:09:53,280 --> 01:09:57,540 Like they have to stimulate their own economy, regear their indu industry. 1461 01:09:57,540 --> 01:10:02,550 They have to continue to think long-term about military buildup because of 1462 01:10:02,550 --> 01:10:05,820 course there's still this risk of Russia being belligerent in the future. 1463 01:10:06,180 --> 01:10:10,500 'cause that's all stemming from Russia's long-term economic and social decline. 1464 01:10:10,890 --> 01:10:14,190 So that you, you, you do have to be prepared for some future Russian 1465 01:10:14,190 --> 01:10:16,170 aggression, even if it never materializes. 1466 01:10:16,355 --> 01:10:17,295 Marko Papic: So, yeah, for sure. 1467 01:10:17,455 --> 01:10:17,655 I mean, 1468 01:10:18,090 --> 01:10:21,450 Matt Gertken: so you, you get, you get private capital coming out of 1469 01:10:21,450 --> 01:10:24,300 the woodwork in Europe that was intimidated by the war and you'd 1470 01:10:24,300 --> 01:10:25,920 be matching that with the fiscal. 1471 01:10:26,100 --> 01:10:29,790 Um, I guess that's another way of saying what you were saying, which 1472 01:10:29,790 --> 01:10:32,550 is that this would be very bullish for Europe and not just Ukraine. 1473 01:10:34,710 --> 01:10:37,440 Marko Papic: Well, one thing I would say is that, sorry to interrupt you Matt. 1474 01:10:37,440 --> 01:10:42,150 I was just gonna jive on top of you and say like, well, you know, 1475 01:10:42,840 --> 01:10:45,570 I've painted a picture of Putin as a kleptocrat who doesn't really 1476 01:10:45,570 --> 01:10:46,830 care about strategic issues. 1477 01:10:46,830 --> 01:10:47,160 Right. 1478 01:10:47,190 --> 01:10:47,550 But like. 1479 01:10:48,330 --> 01:10:49,920 There could be something that comes after him. 1480 01:10:49,920 --> 01:10:50,759 So absolutely. 1481 01:10:50,759 --> 01:10:55,650 This is why I'm buying any dip in like defense stocks in Europe. 1482 01:10:55,710 --> 01:10:58,049 You know, like that's, that's kind of what I'm getting at. 1483 01:10:58,049 --> 01:11:00,630 Me too, but I think Jacob, yeah. 1484 01:11:00,719 --> 01:11:01,019 Yeah. 1485 01:11:01,200 --> 01:11:03,450 So we're on the same, but, but Jacob, where I think you 1486 01:11:03,455 --> 01:11:06,299 want to go, I can feel it. 1487 01:11:06,480 --> 01:11:07,769 I can feel it in your pores. 1488 01:11:07,769 --> 01:11:11,340 Like you just, you wanna go to what happens to Russia, right? 1489 01:11:11,910 --> 01:11:14,730 So here I am talking about Ukraine. 1490 01:11:14,730 --> 01:11:16,049 Matt's talking about Europe. 1491 01:11:16,559 --> 01:11:20,969 But the truth is like, and I've said this before on this pod, Russia 1492 01:11:20,969 --> 01:11:27,870 has an incredibly long history of effectively losing offensive operations, 1493 01:11:27,870 --> 01:11:31,019 offensive military operations, and having political change afterwards. 1494 01:11:31,019 --> 01:11:35,309 You know, and I think that there's no way that the current regime in 1495 01:11:35,309 --> 01:11:38,190 Russia like survives the peace. 1496 01:11:38,429 --> 01:11:39,809 I think Putin will declare. 1497 01:11:40,905 --> 01:11:41,475 Victory. 1498 01:11:42,165 --> 01:11:46,695 I think he'll ride that victory wave for a couple of months, maybe years even. 1499 01:11:46,695 --> 01:11:48,465 You know, like he will make us look stupid. 1500 01:11:48,465 --> 01:11:50,925 Jacob, you and I have been sitting here for three years 1501 01:11:50,925 --> 01:11:52,515 being like, oh, Putin's done. 1502 01:11:53,175 --> 01:11:54,855 Well egg on our face. 1503 01:11:54,945 --> 01:11:57,855 Um, or a bleeding on our face better. 1504 01:11:58,365 --> 01:12:04,365 But I think that eventually Putin ends up, I think the regime crumbles because 1505 01:12:05,025 --> 01:12:11,235 what they got from Ukraine is so little and the resources they expanded are so 1506 01:12:11,235 --> 01:12:17,025 great that I think eventually the big takeaway from this conflict is that there 1507 01:12:17,025 --> 01:12:19,215 must be a reckoning inside of Russia. 1508 01:12:19,425 --> 01:12:23,145 And that may not be good because while Marco here saying like, 1509 01:12:23,145 --> 01:12:24,405 well, I don't think Putin cares. 1510 01:12:24,405 --> 01:12:27,135 He just wants the villages so he can get a mission accomplished 1511 01:12:27,135 --> 01:12:28,275 banner and declare victory. 1512 01:12:28,725 --> 01:12:32,025 Maybe what replaces him is someone who actually believes 1513 01:12:32,115 --> 01:12:33,615 in the historical lesson. 1514 01:12:33,615 --> 01:12:36,195 He taught Tucker Carlson on that pod. 1515 01:12:37,365 --> 01:12:40,035 Jacob Shapiro: Yeah, and to your point, I mean, this, this is where, I mean, C ZR 1516 01:12:40,035 --> 01:12:44,924 Nicholas II lasted after he got his ass whooped by the Japanese in 19 0 4, 19 0 5. 1517 01:12:45,344 --> 01:12:46,875 Um, lasted another 12 years now. 1518 01:12:46,875 --> 01:12:49,844 He had to install the Duma, uh, in between then. 1519 01:12:49,844 --> 01:12:52,125 And you had the beginning of, of the First World War. 1520 01:12:52,125 --> 01:12:55,995 But we don't get the Russian Revolution until, uh, 1917. 1521 01:12:56,295 --> 01:12:59,985 And I just bring that up, up to say, you know, maybe it'll take 10 years, maybe, 1522 01:13:00,105 --> 01:13:03,795 maybe Putin harvest some organs from kids and he lasts another 10 or 15 years. 1523 01:13:03,795 --> 01:13:09,915 But when, when that regime does fall apart, um, it will have global impact. 1524 01:13:09,915 --> 01:13:12,075 I mean, it'll, it'll probably reverberate. 1525 01:13:12,405 --> 01:13:13,245 We're not even thinking about, 1526 01:13:13,724 --> 01:13:17,295 Matt Gertken: there was an attempted revolution in, in 1905, so Yeah, that too. 1527 01:13:17,295 --> 01:13:17,445 Yes. 1528 01:13:18,344 --> 01:13:21,884 So, so one thing I always point out is, and I mean I'm not, I'm not just entirely 1529 01:13:21,884 --> 01:13:23,684 relying on the historical analogies. 1530 01:13:23,684 --> 01:13:25,155 They're useful, but I mean. 1531 01:13:25,709 --> 01:13:29,580 You do have a strong reason to believe that social unrest will bubble up sooner 1532 01:13:29,580 --> 01:13:33,900 than people realize, because there will be a big drop in industrial production. 1533 01:13:34,349 --> 01:13:36,660 And so there'll be effectively a recession after the war. 1534 01:13:36,660 --> 01:13:39,959 And this is the biggest pushback I get when I put forward that. 1535 01:13:40,410 --> 01:13:44,849 And so here, my whole point about the ceasefire or the, or whatever, is that 1536 01:13:45,150 --> 01:13:49,679 Putin needs to embrace Trump while he has this potential of getting sanction 1537 01:13:49,679 --> 01:13:56,730 relief and a, uh, sort of, uh, great power status by doing a deal directly 1538 01:13:56,730 --> 01:14:00,629 with the United States, because that probably does buy him some time at home. 1539 01:14:00,839 --> 01:14:04,230 Whereas the idea that the war ends in sort of a whimper after just 1540 01:14:04,230 --> 01:14:06,839 dragging on forever and you don't get any sanction relief and you 1541 01:14:06,839 --> 01:14:11,129 don't get any improved prestige or status, that could just No, I love 1542 01:14:11,129 --> 01:14:11,669 Marko Papic: that point. 1543 01:14:11,910 --> 01:14:13,049 That could be, I love that point, Matt, 1544 01:14:13,469 --> 01:14:16,410 Matt Gertken: you know, the image of Putin as weak and failed, and he's 1545 01:14:16,410 --> 01:14:19,960 got a, you know, you were saying almost wasteland ahead of him. 1546 01:14:20,985 --> 01:14:24,915 Marko Papic: You're almost saying he should actually send sell the Northwestern 1547 01:14:24,915 --> 01:14:26,715 part of Dansky hasn't conquered. 1548 01:14:26,985 --> 01:14:30,105 Matt Gertken: Yes, but what And and my that's and the point there is 1549 01:14:30,105 --> 01:14:34,155 really nuance, and of course this is extremely contentious 'cause it 1550 01:14:34,155 --> 01:14:38,985 requires you to say that Putin is not just fanatical about the war. 1551 01:14:38,985 --> 01:14:39,195 Right. 1552 01:14:39,225 --> 01:14:42,105 But, but you know, the Putin that we've seen in the past 1553 01:14:42,105 --> 01:14:43,934 used to take calculated risks. 1554 01:14:44,415 --> 01:14:45,105 The belief, yeah. 1555 01:14:45,405 --> 01:14:49,515 From 2022 to now is that he, he, he became unhinged. 1556 01:14:50,085 --> 01:14:52,394 But I guess I'm saying, well what if it's the same Putin? 1557 01:14:52,394 --> 01:14:56,475 And he actually does still recognize that, that that risks can be calculated 1558 01:14:56,475 --> 01:14:59,625 and that he, he's, I mean, if you're gonna start turning the Titanic, 1559 01:14:59,625 --> 01:15:00,975 you better start turning now. 1560 01:15:02,175 --> 01:15:04,335 Marko Papic: Matt, how can you, how can anyone argue 1561 01:15:04,335 --> 01:15:05,775 that he's completely unhinged? 1562 01:15:05,775 --> 01:15:05,955 You know? 1563 01:15:05,955 --> 01:15:06,015 Yeah. 1564 01:15:06,015 --> 01:15:07,545 Like, I mean, there's levels of unhinging. 1565 01:15:07,575 --> 01:15:11,265 He, he only mobilized the people once hasn't used tactical nukes and so on. 1566 01:15:11,535 --> 01:15:14,385 Now, in terms of historical analogies, for those who want to 1567 01:15:14,385 --> 01:15:18,405 kind of like count them, Nikola the first effectively committed suicide. 1568 01:15:18,405 --> 01:15:20,805 Nobody knows why he died, but this was Crimean War. 1569 01:15:21,375 --> 01:15:25,335 What followed was Alexander ii massive, massive macroeconomic 1570 01:15:25,335 --> 01:15:26,370 social reforms of Russia. 1571 01:15:26,440 --> 01:15:29,805 Kind of like the stuff going on in Saudi Arabia now, like the major restoration. 1572 01:15:30,195 --> 01:15:32,505 Then you've got the ex. Yeah. 1573 01:15:32,505 --> 01:15:33,465 Free to service and so on. 1574 01:15:33,465 --> 01:15:37,905 You guys have, uh, put up forth the Nicholas II example of 1905. 1575 01:15:37,905 --> 01:15:41,775 Great nuance point with Japan, but I would also argue First World War and 1576 01:15:41,775 --> 01:15:46,365 the Bolshevik Revolution we're also a product of an offensive imperialist war. 1577 01:15:47,174 --> 01:15:49,245 Russia's participation in World War ii. 1578 01:15:49,304 --> 01:15:53,294 One was not defensive, like, you know, fighting Hitler. 1579 01:15:53,445 --> 01:15:56,804 They were doing it to conquer as much of Poland and Celestia 1580 01:15:56,804 --> 01:15:58,125 and all sorts of other parts. 1581 01:15:58,455 --> 01:16:00,495 And then finally, you know, you can talk about Soviet 1582 01:16:00,495 --> 01:16:03,990 Union with Afghanistan, right? 1583 01:16:04,065 --> 01:16:04,394 Right. 1584 01:16:04,394 --> 01:16:07,125 I mean, Gorbachev followed because there was angst. 1585 01:16:07,125 --> 01:16:10,905 There was like moles, not just economic, also political due 1586 01:16:10,905 --> 01:16:12,705 to this very, very painful war. 1587 01:16:12,705 --> 01:16:16,125 And then Cheney and Yeltsin, which was an albatross around his 1588 01:16:16,125 --> 01:16:20,174 neck for 10 years effectively, which brought Putin into power. 1589 01:16:20,174 --> 01:16:22,875 It was his first big success was solving this. 1590 01:16:23,235 --> 01:16:27,344 So I think that, you know, it's not just like analogies. 1591 01:16:27,344 --> 01:16:30,915 At some point it becomes like, this is what happens to Russia. 1592 01:16:30,974 --> 01:16:38,054 You get a regime because the place expands beyond some almost supernatural. 1593 01:16:38,580 --> 01:16:40,200 Limits of the country. 1594 01:16:40,410 --> 01:16:44,190 You know, like there, there's just something out there keeping Russia the 1595 01:16:44,190 --> 01:16:48,990 size it is and every time its leaders are like, I wanna grab another piece. 1596 01:16:49,020 --> 01:16:53,070 They always fail at the same time to their credit, and let's just 1597 01:16:53,070 --> 01:16:54,180 give them the credit that's due. 1598 01:16:54,180 --> 01:16:56,070 I don't want some Russian to think we're anti-Russian. 1599 01:16:56,340 --> 01:17:00,300 Look, when somebody tries to invade Russia, they like save the fucking world. 1600 01:17:00,300 --> 01:17:00,630 Right? 1601 01:17:00,660 --> 01:17:04,860 God bless you, Napoleon, Hitler, we get that. 1602 01:17:04,920 --> 01:17:08,580 But when it's the other way around, they always fail and it 1603 01:17:08,580 --> 01:17:10,050 always leads to political risk. 1604 01:17:10,050 --> 01:17:14,610 So if I was going to pick the most big, the, the, the most significant, 1605 01:17:15,300 --> 01:17:17,520 to answer your question, Jacob, which is an incredible question. 1606 01:17:17,520 --> 01:17:21,630 What after I think it's that we've got a great power that's in the 1607 01:17:21,630 --> 01:17:23,550 process of effectively decaying. 1608 01:17:23,550 --> 01:17:28,110 We've got a new Eastern question, we've got a new sick man of Eurasia, 1609 01:17:28,350 --> 01:17:34,650 we've got a new sphere of influence for great powers to fight over. 1610 01:17:34,740 --> 01:17:37,020 And that might be the defining. 1611 01:17:37,620 --> 01:17:39,030 Part of the next 25 years. 1612 01:17:39,090 --> 01:17:41,670 Jacob Shapiro: Well, and this, and this and this declining powerment of Europe 1613 01:17:41,670 --> 01:17:43,740 has, how many nuclear warheads is it? 1614 01:17:43,740 --> 01:17:45,450 4,000? I forget the exact number. 1615 01:17:45,510 --> 01:17:47,070 Like that's the thing that keeps me up at night about 1616 01:17:47,070 --> 01:17:47,160 Marko Papic: that. 1617 01:17:47,160 --> 01:17:48,300 I think it's like 20,000, 1618 01:17:48,690 --> 01:17:48,960 Jacob Shapiro: is it 1619 01:17:49,380 --> 01:17:52,140 Matt Gertken: 7,000 I think deployed that. 1620 01:17:52,290 --> 01:17:52,890 Here's the thing. 1621 01:17:52,890 --> 01:17:53,040 Yeah. 1622 01:17:53,040 --> 01:17:53,520 Enough. 1623 01:17:53,820 --> 01:17:58,380 Uh, look, one, one other issue though, by the way we've backed into this 1624 01:17:58,380 --> 01:18:04,140 actually does enable you to understand US strategy separate from Donald Trump, 1625 01:18:04,590 --> 01:18:10,920 is that if the US allows Russia to be ground into the ground, then you 1626 01:18:10,920 --> 01:18:12,840 know, we, one of two things happens. 1627 01:18:12,840 --> 01:18:17,310 Either they elect or, or have a revolution and, and have a more 1628 01:18:17,310 --> 01:18:22,500 fanatical, aggressive government, or they become a pure satellite to China. 1629 01:18:22,920 --> 01:18:25,410 And, and we effectively solve the coordination problem 1630 01:18:25,410 --> 01:18:26,460 between Russia and China. 1631 01:18:26,850 --> 01:18:31,170 The US outcome would be, it would be much preferred to have something in between 1632 01:18:31,170 --> 01:18:35,400 to have the devil that we know, which is a federation, you know, that isn't. 1633 01:18:35,820 --> 01:18:41,130 A satellite and isn't a completely fascist, you know, um, you know, 1634 01:18:41,130 --> 01:18:43,260 militaristic state and basically, 1635 01:18:43,470 --> 01:18:46,470 Jacob Shapiro: but, but what if it's, what if it's the eastern part of Russia gets to 1636 01:18:46,470 --> 01:18:51,510 be a satellite of China and Moscow becomes the 29th member of the European Union? 1637 01:18:51,570 --> 01:18:53,910 Like what if we're talking about like a complete division? 1638 01:18:54,930 --> 01:18:55,290 You know, 1639 01:18:55,470 --> 01:18:58,980 Matt Gertken: I still have to think with nuclear weapons, it's hard for, it's hard 1640 01:18:58,980 --> 01:19:04,410 for states with nuclear weapons to, uh, to completely like look at Pakistan, right? 1641 01:19:04,410 --> 01:19:08,640 It's, you could have the Pakistan of Russia where it is a, it is 1642 01:19:08,640 --> 01:19:14,640 effectively a nuclear, um, military, um, regime surrounded by chaos. 1643 01:19:14,640 --> 01:19:18,120 But for the territory to actually break apart, it seems 1644 01:19:18,510 --> 01:19:19,830 pretty farfetched these days. 1645 01:19:20,490 --> 01:19:25,560 Marko Papic: No, listen, I think, I think Matt is very correct and this 1646 01:19:25,560 --> 01:19:30,450 is the role the UK also played in the 19th century after the Cian war, I 1647 01:19:30,480 --> 01:19:31,785 mean, after the Caribbean war, not. 1648 01:19:32,835 --> 01:19:35,895 Not before it, but you know, the UK was like, holy shit, 1649 01:19:35,955 --> 01:19:37,905 we've unleashed these forces. 1650 01:19:38,445 --> 01:19:43,275 The Russians, the Germans, the Aus Hungarians, the various NA nations of 1651 01:19:43,275 --> 01:19:45,405 Ottoman Empire, they all now want a piece. 1652 01:19:45,525 --> 01:19:46,305 What have we done? 1653 01:19:46,335 --> 01:19:48,885 We gotta like pump the brakes a little bit on some of this stuff. 1654 01:19:49,455 --> 01:19:50,505 So I think you're right. 1655 01:19:50,505 --> 01:19:54,945 Like I don't think the United States is going, like, they may very well 1656 01:19:54,945 --> 01:20:01,095 start acting, not because Trump wants to build Trump hotels in like sk, but 1657 01:20:01,095 --> 01:20:07,485 because it is in America's interest that this huge piece of Eurasia does not 1658 01:20:07,485 --> 01:20:11,205 get nippled on by any emerging power. 1659 01:20:11,265 --> 01:20:16,005 China's the obvious one, but even like places like Turkey or Europe, even Europe, 1660 01:20:16,785 --> 01:20:18,615 Jacob Shapiro: well tur Turkey's already nibbling and Europe's, 1661 01:20:18,915 --> 01:20:22,065 you're all coming back to conspiracy Jacob, which is China saying, Hey, 1662 01:20:22,065 --> 01:20:23,385 you've got a Eurasian problem. 1663 01:20:23,385 --> 01:20:25,305 Why don't you fix this shit that you started? 1664 01:20:25,425 --> 01:20:26,715 Like I Turkey's 1665 01:20:26,715 --> 01:20:27,915 Marko Papic: nibbling for sure. 1666 01:20:28,125 --> 01:20:31,605 Everyone's nibbling, but this is, Hey, hey, this is why. 1667 01:20:32,370 --> 01:20:35,220 We're in a growth industry, my friends. 1668 01:20:35,250 --> 01:20:35,730 Okay. 1669 01:20:36,000 --> 01:20:38,010 Because the 19th century is back. 1670 01:20:38,010 --> 01:20:39,030 Let me tell you something. 1671 01:20:39,420 --> 01:20:40,410 Let me tell you something. 1672 01:20:40,410 --> 01:20:43,260 If the world is bipolar or unipolar, it's gonna be boring. 1673 01:20:43,470 --> 01:20:43,710 Okay? 1674 01:20:43,710 --> 01:20:46,980 At the end of the day, the great thing about Multipolarity is 1675 01:20:46,980 --> 01:20:51,300 there's a whole lot of nibbling going on, and that makes it fun. 1676 01:20:53,580 --> 01:20:54,120 Matt Gertken: Yeah, that's true. 1677 01:20:54,120 --> 01:20:56,580 And I mean, to that point, I mean, obviously Jacob, you're 1678 01:20:56,580 --> 01:20:58,380 right that there are some rush. 1679 01:20:58,380 --> 01:21:00,660 There are some marginal Russian territories that we could see 1680 01:21:00,660 --> 01:21:02,220 some really crazy stuff happen. 1681 01:21:02,220 --> 01:21:03,900 I mean, I'm not, I'm not denying that. 1682 01:21:03,900 --> 01:21:06,690 But anyway, one last thing. 1683 01:21:06,690 --> 01:21:08,340 China is a missing part of this. 1684 01:21:08,340 --> 01:21:10,170 This post Ukraine world you asked about. 1685 01:21:10,260 --> 01:21:10,350 Music: Mm-hmm. 1686 01:21:10,830 --> 01:21:16,650 Matt Gertken: You know, because on one hand they are, they're not gonna be 1687 01:21:16,680 --> 01:21:21,540 thrilled to see Russia make amends with the west if that's what ends up happening. 1688 01:21:22,290 --> 01:21:24,480 Um, but if it's a standoff. 1689 01:21:25,815 --> 01:21:30,135 Then I suppose they can sort of take some lessons from that about 1690 01:21:30,135 --> 01:21:31,605 their own strategy in the future. 1691 01:21:31,605 --> 01:21:33,825 And they're not just thinking about Taiwan, but obviously 1692 01:21:33,825 --> 01:21:35,295 they're pretty fixated on Taiwan. 1693 01:21:36,255 --> 01:21:40,365 You know, the, the question to me becomes, do they risk being isolated? 1694 01:21:40,365 --> 01:21:42,285 And that goes back to our discussion that we covered. 1695 01:21:42,285 --> 01:21:44,355 There's, there is no Nixon strategy here. 1696 01:21:44,355 --> 01:21:50,835 You can't, or reverse Nixon, you can't really convince Germany and Russia and the 1697 01:21:50,835 --> 01:21:57,135 United States to all engage in the same international order and, and, and embrace 1698 01:21:57,135 --> 01:21:59,265 a liberalization in a, in a cooperation. 1699 01:21:59,265 --> 01:22:01,125 It, it, there's not a good basis for that. 1700 01:22:01,275 --> 01:22:06,435 There's a basis for det, but in the end, Russia's very likely 1701 01:22:06,435 --> 01:22:10,335 to continue to sort of cast, its its strategic future with Russia. 1702 01:22:10,455 --> 01:22:11,805 With Russia and vice versa. 1703 01:22:12,675 --> 01:22:15,945 Marko Papic: But I would say that there is, in, in this emerging world, 1704 01:22:16,335 --> 01:22:20,445 an opportunity to have shifting alliances based on the issue, you know. 1705 01:22:22,455 --> 01:22:23,955 Matt Gertken: As long as countries are sustainable. 1706 01:22:23,955 --> 01:22:24,255 Yeah. 1707 01:22:24,255 --> 01:22:29,684 As long as they're domestically sustainable, they can sort of bumper cars. 1708 01:22:30,255 --> 01:22:30,525 Marko Papic: Yeah. 1709 01:22:30,525 --> 01:22:34,785 Like you, you know, and, and that's why I was really, really so like, nauseated 1710 01:22:34,785 --> 01:22:39,795 by this notion that India, Russia, and China are not allies at the summit. 1711 01:22:39,795 --> 01:22:40,905 Like, I just like lost. 1712 01:22:40,905 --> 01:22:45,554 I mean, Jacob knows, like, I, I almost like got a brain aneurysm on our podcast. 1713 01:22:45,554 --> 01:22:48,675 I was actually invited by CNBC or someone to talk about it live. 1714 01:22:48,675 --> 01:22:49,580 And I was like, rah. 1715 01:22:49,995 --> 01:22:53,955 You know, like just walked off the set like, you guys are fools. 1716 01:22:53,955 --> 01:22:54,014 Yeah. 1717 01:22:54,165 --> 01:22:58,755 And it's like, no, but, but at the same time, at the same time, it does, it 1718 01:22:58,755 --> 01:23:00,255 doesn't mean that there's an alliance. 1719 01:23:00,255 --> 01:23:04,005 They're not, India hasn't joined China, Russia, it just means that on 1720 01:23:04,005 --> 01:23:06,405 issue X, like there could be a war. 1721 01:23:07,065 --> 01:23:11,685 There could be a, a actual war where the three countries are sharing 1722 01:23:11,685 --> 01:23:12,885 of view, you know what I mean? 1723 01:23:12,975 --> 01:23:16,155 There could be another war where they're not, they could be in an 1724 01:23:16,155 --> 01:23:17,955 alliance structure against each other. 1725 01:23:18,225 --> 01:23:19,665 It's just a little more shifting. 1726 01:23:19,665 --> 01:23:23,475 And I think that we all need to approach this geopolitical world with less 1727 01:23:23,475 --> 01:23:28,815 nuance and worry a little bit less about, you know, who's in whose camp. 1728 01:23:29,025 --> 01:23:31,005 In other words, it's kind of like playing risk. 1729 01:23:31,905 --> 01:23:35,685 You know, when you play risk, there's a ton of diplomacy going on. 1730 01:23:35,685 --> 01:23:37,545 Hey, please don't attack me right now. 1731 01:23:37,725 --> 01:23:42,045 You know, I won't attack you in Latin America if you don't attack me in Oceania. 1732 01:23:42,045 --> 01:23:43,935 People make these alliances all the time. 1733 01:23:43,935 --> 01:23:48,225 And what's fun about risk is all the stuff that's not on the board when you 1734 01:23:48,225 --> 01:23:53,685 play the game of risk, what's most fun about risk is what's not on the board. 1735 01:23:53,685 --> 01:23:55,185 Like, oh, I'm just so poor. 1736 01:23:55,185 --> 01:23:56,655 I just have Australia. 1737 01:23:56,805 --> 01:23:59,385 And then like 20 turns later you're like, ha, ha, ha ha. 1738 01:23:59,415 --> 01:24:01,485 You're like, but I let you have Australia. 1739 01:24:01,605 --> 01:24:02,055 Too bad. 1740 01:24:02,060 --> 01:24:02,330 Matt. 1741 01:24:02,505 --> 01:24:03,645 Like, fuck you. 1742 01:24:03,650 --> 01:24:03,850 Yeah. 1743 01:24:03,850 --> 01:24:05,330 And then, you know, like, that's what's fun. 1744 01:24:05,730 --> 01:24:05,820 And 1745 01:24:06,089 --> 01:24:06,750 Matt Gertken: that's all 1746 01:24:06,750 --> 01:24:07,290 Marko Papic: I'm saying. 1747 01:24:07,919 --> 01:24:10,950 Matt Gertken: That's why you can have that game of diplomacy, which you 1748 01:24:10,950 --> 01:24:12,660 barely even use the board, you know? 1749 01:24:12,780 --> 01:24:13,139 Marko Papic: Yeah. 1750 01:24:13,650 --> 01:24:16,349 Well that would last like years, you know? 1751 01:24:16,349 --> 01:24:20,580 I mean, at least risk, risk can last a bottle of wine 1752 01:24:21,000 --> 01:24:21,809 Matt Gertken: for that same reason. 1753 01:24:21,809 --> 01:24:23,190 I've only played that game once. 1754 01:24:23,190 --> 01:24:29,519 But, you know, hey, look, the, the one maybe thing I would sort of tag 1755 01:24:29,519 --> 01:24:33,599 on here though is that you do have to have domestic economies that, 1756 01:24:34,530 --> 01:24:36,299 that are, you know, sustainable. 1757 01:24:36,360 --> 01:24:39,150 And for the most part we're seeing that. 1758 01:24:39,150 --> 01:24:43,769 I mean, you know, Europe, us, China, these are, these are for the most 1759 01:24:43,769 --> 01:24:45,480 part pretty sustainable economies. 1760 01:24:45,480 --> 01:24:48,240 They're not getting the growth that they want, but, but they're 1761 01:24:48,240 --> 01:24:49,410 not collapsing or anything. 1762 01:24:50,070 --> 01:24:53,730 But I just keep mentioning that as a caveat, whether people are asking about, 1763 01:24:53,730 --> 01:24:57,089 you know, the Civil War in the US or whether they're asking about collapse of 1764 01:24:57,599 --> 01:25:01,889 Russia or whether they're asking about China attacking Taiwan, or, you know, it's 1765 01:25:01,889 --> 01:25:04,230 very important to continue to maintain. 1766 01:25:04,769 --> 01:25:06,420 Productivity and, and growth. 1767 01:25:06,840 --> 01:25:12,300 Because if we lose those things, then you could really start to see that the demons 1768 01:25:12,300 --> 01:25:16,440 come out in terms of how these, these territorial tensions play out, you know? 1769 01:25:17,160 --> 01:25:17,760 Jacob Shapiro: Yeah, that's a good point. 1770 01:25:17,760 --> 01:25:17,850 Matt. 1771 01:25:17,880 --> 01:25:20,310 Marco, I think you made a great point too, which is the last thing 1772 01:25:20,310 --> 01:25:21,630 I, I wanna say two, two things last. 1773 01:25:21,630 --> 01:25:26,310 Number one, um, the country that has the most to gain from all of this is Turkey. 1774 01:25:26,940 --> 01:25:30,180 They're the ones like at, uh, at the risk table who they had Oceania, they got their 1775 01:25:30,180 --> 01:25:34,290 small part of Syria, and in 20 turns they might be the one banging on the table. 1776 01:25:34,290 --> 01:25:36,330 Like Marco right there saying, we want it all. 1777 01:25:36,780 --> 01:25:40,200 Um, and just, I mean a little bit, uh, tongue, a little bit tongue in 1778 01:25:40,200 --> 01:25:43,019 cheek, aot, tongue in cheek over under, how long does it take for 1779 01:25:43,019 --> 01:25:45,960 somebody in the Trump administration to say, we've had this great idea. 1780 01:25:45,960 --> 01:25:49,500 Why don't we build a pipeline from Russia to Europe and export 1781 01:25:49,500 --> 01:25:51,510 the Russian energy to Europe? 1782 01:25:51,570 --> 01:25:53,220 We could call it Trump stream. 1783 01:25:53,220 --> 01:25:54,180 What do you guys think? 1784 01:25:54,180 --> 01:25:55,290 Do you think that's a good idea? 1785 01:25:57,960 --> 01:25:58,560 Marko Papic: That's awesome. 1786 01:25:58,920 --> 01:26:03,090 Well, hey Jacob, I just want to end by saying you had a ton of great points too. 1787 01:26:03,750 --> 01:26:04,715 Oh, that's nice. 1788 01:26:04,720 --> 01:26:06,360 We all had great points. 1789 01:26:06,420 --> 01:26:07,260 Jacob Shapiro: Oh, we can all feel 1790 01:26:07,260 --> 01:26:07,440 Matt Gertken: good 1791 01:26:07,440 --> 01:26:07,620 Jacob Shapiro: now. 1792 01:26:07,620 --> 01:26:08,940 We all get our participation. 1793 01:26:08,940 --> 01:26:10,290 I appreciate my participation trophy. 1794 01:26:10,290 --> 01:26:11,730 Marco, you had zero good points. 1795 01:26:11,730 --> 01:26:14,790 I thought you were absolutely reprehensible on this podcast. 1796 01:26:14,790 --> 01:26:16,770 I Matt's the new cousin. 1797 01:26:17,580 --> 01:26:17,820 Marko Papic: Well, 1798 01:26:19,200 --> 01:26:20,190 Jacob Shapiro: yeah, look there 1799 01:26:20,820 --> 01:26:22,170 Marko Papic: I was second I cousin now. 1800 01:26:24,000 --> 01:26:25,920 Jacob Shapiro: All right, we'll talk you, oh, no, go ahead Matt. 1801 01:26:26,640 --> 01:26:29,970 Matt Gertken: No, I just, I one happy note for everyone to think about is what 1802 01:26:29,970 --> 01:26:34,320 you said, which is what are gonna be these US Russia joint economic projects. 1803 01:26:34,320 --> 01:26:36,630 That's gonna be, that's gonna be fun to watch. 1804 01:26:36,635 --> 01:26:40,140 That's gonna be, can I, on the notes like chicken factory, you know, 1805 01:26:40,140 --> 01:26:41,790 like chicken plucking factories. 1806 01:26:43,350 --> 01:26:43,470 Marko Papic: Yeah. 1807 01:26:43,470 --> 01:26:43,740 Check. 1808 01:26:43,740 --> 01:26:45,870 Yeah, I mean that's basically, there you go. 1809 01:26:46,140 --> 01:26:48,990 Uh, I just wanna, speaking of plucking poultry. 1810 01:26:49,200 --> 01:26:53,115 Yeah, I did wanna say to all our listeners in the United States 1811 01:26:53,115 --> 01:26:54,840 of America, happy Thanksgiving. 1812 01:26:55,230 --> 01:26:56,760 I'll just share with you guys. 1813 01:26:56,820 --> 01:26:57,330 Um. 1814 01:26:57,750 --> 01:27:02,370 One funny anecdote, I know we gotta go, but, um, I was, I think 13 years old 1815 01:27:02,370 --> 01:27:07,650 when I had my first American Thanksgiving and it was in Jordan of all the places. 1816 01:27:07,800 --> 01:27:12,330 And, uh, I went through the house, there was like this huge feast, and I had 1817 01:27:12,330 --> 01:27:17,100 heard about these stories, you know, and seen the movies and they served Turkey. 1818 01:27:17,190 --> 01:27:19,020 And I was like, this is like the worst meat. 1819 01:27:20,100 --> 01:27:21,900 Like, nobody ever like, what is this? 1820 01:27:21,900 --> 01:27:23,070 Like, are we dieting? 1821 01:27:23,220 --> 01:27:23,610 You know? 1822 01:27:23,820 --> 01:27:25,140 I was so disappointed. 1823 01:27:25,740 --> 01:27:28,740 And then, and then you, you were in Jordan though. 1824 01:27:29,010 --> 01:27:30,000 Matt Gertken: We have to remember you 1825 01:27:30,000 --> 01:27:30,660 Marko Papic: were in Jordan. 1826 01:27:31,290 --> 01:27:33,090 No, but it's just Turkey, you know what I mean? 1827 01:27:33,090 --> 01:27:34,980 I'm like, ah, it's dry and stuff. 1828 01:27:35,010 --> 01:27:40,170 And then when I realized the power of American entrepreneurship and ingenuity 1829 01:27:40,350 --> 01:27:46,260 was like, wait a minute, I get to douse it in gravy and then cranberries. 1830 01:27:47,009 --> 01:27:49,769 And that was my first taste of America right there. 1831 01:27:49,830 --> 01:27:50,940 It's like, yes. 1832 01:27:51,179 --> 01:27:52,139 Now I get it. 1833 01:27:52,889 --> 01:27:54,719 Jacob Shapiro: Well, yeah, I think everybody, I think everybody 1834 01:27:54,719 --> 01:27:56,340 concedes that Turkey is not great. 1835 01:27:56,340 --> 01:27:58,530 It's all about the, um, it's all about the sides. 1836 01:27:58,530 --> 01:28:01,980 But we should also quote Mr. Ben Franklin who said that the Turkey 1837 01:28:01,980 --> 01:28:04,769 is in comparison a much more respectable bird to any others. 1838 01:28:04,769 --> 01:28:09,120 And with all a true original native of America, he is, besides though a little 1839 01:28:09,120 --> 01:28:10,980 vain and silly, a bird of courage. 1840 01:28:11,009 --> 01:28:12,210 So we're eating the turkeys. 1841 01:28:12,240 --> 01:28:14,639 'cause Ben Franklin said that's what was around and we needed to 1842 01:28:14,639 --> 01:28:15,929 give some thanks back in the day. 1843 01:28:15,990 --> 01:28:18,269 Of course, Thanksgiving also does not come from any of that. 1844 01:28:18,269 --> 01:28:19,230 That's the mythology. 1845 01:28:19,710 --> 01:28:20,730 Um, after the fact. 1846 01:28:20,730 --> 01:28:23,549 Thanksgiving is, it's a civil war thing, and then it becomes a big 1847 01:28:23,549 --> 01:28:25,080 deal after FDR and blah, blah blah. 1848 01:28:25,110 --> 01:28:27,420 But that's another rabbit hole to go down or Turkey holding go down. 1849 01:28:27,420 --> 01:28:27,480 Yeah. 1850 01:28:27,565 --> 01:28:29,460 Matt Gertken: But, but that's a great quote. 1851 01:28:29,940 --> 01:28:32,009 I mean, look, I think you guys are both wrong. 1852 01:28:32,014 --> 01:28:33,960 A, a, a, well, like a well. 1853 01:28:34,500 --> 01:28:39,420 A juicy, well done Turkey leg is a glorious piece of food, and you're 1854 01:28:39,420 --> 01:28:40,860 just forgetting about the dark meat. 1855 01:28:40,860 --> 01:28:42,810 You know, that's what you're, you're thinking about all that 1856 01:28:42,810 --> 01:28:44,190 white shred stuff, you know? 1857 01:28:44,190 --> 01:28:44,610 I am. 1858 01:28:45,210 --> 01:28:45,270 Yeah. 1859 01:28:45,300 --> 01:28:45,660 That's what 1860 01:28:45,660 --> 01:28:47,520 Marko Papic: stays in the fridge forever, you know? 1861 01:28:47,520 --> 01:28:48,360 But yeah, if, if, 1862 01:28:48,360 --> 01:28:50,340 Jacob Shapiro: if we didn't already have comrades and furs, I would 1863 01:28:50,340 --> 01:28:53,070 make the title of the podcast You're forgetting about the dark meat. 1864 01:28:53,130 --> 01:28:54,150 That sounds like a killer. 1865 01:28:56,280 --> 01:28:56,820 All right, y'all. 1866 01:28:56,820 --> 01:28:57,540 Happy Thanksgiving. 1867 01:28:58,200 --> 01:28:58,590 Marko Papic: See ya. 1868 01:28:58,590 --> 01:28:59,460 Happy Thanksgiving.