What do you want to do at the top?

We want to do.

You gotta get into that review at some point.

Which review?

Which one?

I have a bit of selective memory as it relates to some reviews.

Apparently that was from April.

I saw.

I saw and I was like, swerve.

Did you really, you potentially didn't bring that up back in April?

Yeah, I gotta.

Because I didn't agree with it.

But we have to, we have to be honest and we have, we have to address it.

So I either saw it and forgot it and got pissed off again.

And I think.

I'm pretty sure that I talked to the guy on a regular basis.

I know who it is.

Yeah, no, I think it is.

It's hilarious.

I'm pretty sure.

I know it is.

My first knee jerk reaction was, okay, he really meant to leave a five star review, but he did what Saeed did when he gave us a two star review inadvertently.

No, you don't know that's either one or five because when I did it inadvertently, it.

You just forget to.

You write the review.

You just forget to click the fifth star.

Your mic is facing the other way.

What's going on here is coming at an angle.

Yeah.

You don't like that.

It's just, it's weird.

It makes me.

I don't know where to look.

I look which side of your face.

Welcome back to the number one financial literacy podcast in the world.

This is the higher standard sitting in front of me.

None other than Christopher Nahibi in the military green.

I like that.

That's.

That's a good look on you.

I remember when that shirt used to be tight, fitted.

Yeah, it really was.

I. I've lost a little bit of weight.

I am the modern day rock of podcasting, apparently.

Oh, 60 pounds, bro.

Why does anybody really know those numbers to be true?

Yeah, I saw a post on social media today which literally said that he went from £300 down to £240.

I'm like, Bro, there was no world where he was £300 to start with.

He was 260 to start with.

Right?

Maybe.

Yeah.

And so you're saying he's £200 now?

I don't believe it.

I don't believe that.

There's no world where I say he lost it.

He maybe lost like 40, which is still a big ass amount of weight, especially all muscle.

Right.

Yeah.

And apparently I'm not your partner in crime, so sitting across from me is my partner in time, the one and only Saeed Omar.

Thank you, my man.

And sitting behind the Desk in the production suite.

The Fijian himself, my partner in crime, Raju.

What's up, my guy?

What's up, my dudes?

What's up, my dudes?

Four one, last and last.

Well, here I am wearing the higher standard merch, the anti Guru Guru club.

You also placed an order today without saying to any of us, just as.

Like a little something I saw the.

Shop shopify, like, you know, come through.

Of course he ordered the discounted stuff, so we didn't make any money off him.

Selfish, bro.

Selfish.

I'm like, how did he know?

Well, it should be told rigid.

We don't make any money on any of it.

To be.

Yeah, it's all advertisement.

Yeah, it's all advertising, which, you know, I'm for.

Yeah, people need to go check it out.

We got the newsletter.

Now, you spent a lot of time this past weekend preparing a newsletter to come out every time an episode drops on Tuesdays.

Looks very good.

No, I screwed it up, so.

Well, I didn't screw it up.

There were some technical challenges in the newsletter.

Right.

So, you know, small business owners, we got to do everything.

Well, real quick, what do people get when they sign up?

Oh, you're gonna get.

Well, you'll get access to the merch stuff before it drops publicly.

Like, I don't post anything to social media first, so it gets dropped there first.

Number two, you're gonna find out a little bit more of the backstory of what's going on with us, the show and how things operate.

So a lot of people who are subscribed to the newsletter, they got like, updates on the podcast studio build out during that time, which we didn't do on.

On social media other than, like, stories.

But you'll get the latest episode, anything you may have missed, and you'll also get some social updates from us as well.

Yeah, kind of like the behind the scenes.

So I'm not.

I'm not going to oversell it because it's still crafting it, but the whole thing was supposed to be like, you generate a show and it automatically sends out an update if I don't go in and manually update it the night before with some specialized content, it should just ship out a newsletter every single week.

But there were technical challenges.

The integrations didn't work.

I could use an RSS feed if I did that, then I had to specialize code stuff.

And I got to the point after, like, three different versions of this where I'm integrating with Zapier and pulling in all this, like, HTML coding and JSON Coding.

I just got to the point where I'm like, you know what?

This is stupid.

So I coded a template that I could use as, like, a repeated, like, aesthetic that has some things that are repeatable in it, but not all the things I wanted, which is fine.

I was gonna review everything anyway.

But, yeah, I thought it was a good look.

Rajeel, did you like it?

Yeah, I liked it.

It was pretty cool.

Did you read it?

Yeah.

And that's how I ended up buying that merchandise.

Those two T shirts.

Oh, there you go.

Off that.

Oh.

So, fun fact.

Everybody who gets the newsletter gets a different version of that.

So if you went to our Shopify store and you put something in your cart, that's going to show up there in your.

In your recommended, like, buys.

If you're not, it's just going to be just two random products.

If you've looked at, like, clicked on a link before, then that'll be one of your next two randoms when you get in.

So there's a.

There's a bunch of, like, logic built into some of that stuff.

Yeah.

And right now the YouTube episodes are in order, but I'm going to combine it with YouTube.

And then if you've looked at or watched the video but you didn't finish watching it, that'll be one of your recommended videos finish watching.

So everybody's newsletter is a little bit different.

Yeah.

So today's episode is going to be a deep dive into the fomc.

The data that they look at, the decisions on what they make and how they make them.

And we thought that it's.

It's going to be really informative given the fact that they'll be meeting again in a couple weeks.

Yeah, this is kind of a pivotal meeting, more so than any other meeting we've talked about in the recent probably six or seven months.

This is the meeting that we know rate cut is coming.

It's kind of a foregone conclusion.

We'll get into why in a little bit from a data perspective, but this one's going to be pivotal.

There's been a lot of political pressure, which we spent undue amounts of time talking about on the show.

We've seen a lot of narrative from the fomc.

We've seen a lot of really strange behavior happening on the fringes of the fomc.

Certain members retiring before the end of their term, other members being potentially fired under the threat of mortgage fraud, which we covered on previous shows.

So all of this is going to coalesce into what hopefully will be the beginning of a rate cut cycle.

And the data seems to suggest that it would.

But there are several key prints coming out in the next week before the FOMC meeting on the 16th and 17th of September.

Right now if everyone can recall, we've covered this topic a lot over the course of the last two years.

Right, right.

We said, we've always said that there's three phases when it comes to this cycle of trying to control, you know, and stabilize prices.

The Fed, they raise interest rates.

Right.

There's a long period where they held interest rates.

That's phase two.

And the third phase is when they started and they began to.

There you go.

Shout out, my boy, run.

We miss you, dog.

Yeah, we do miss you dog.

Even though you're not listening, dog.

And then the third phase when they begin cutting now we've already gone through the beginning stages of a, you know, rate cut cycle and they were trying to find that neutral rate zone where they can maintain for a little while but now there's there.

The FOMC as a whole has started to feel a little bit of pressure and to begin cutting again.

Yeah.

So there's going to be kind of three separate things that we're going to talk about today.

Ironically.

Three, number one, the data.

We're going to talk about the non farm payroll revisions, ppi, CPI and and what the Fed sees leading into the meeting.

We're going to talk about the market and their current perspective.

This is going to do a lot.

It's going to be a lot about cme.

Chicago Mercantile Exchange, Fed Watch Tool.

It's going to be about asset pricing, the bond market, what it's already pricing in, when and why.

And a little bit about the Bloomberg world of Trade probability.

But Wall street, what Wall Street's really expecting here.

And then we're going to finish with the Fed.

Powell's credibility, politics, forward guidance.

What really drives a decision and its aftermath is going to be very key to this meeting.

I don't think there being a rate cut is a big deal here.

It's going to really come down to the narrative around that.

But let's get into the Charl Mercantile Exchange.

Let's do it.

Yeah.

Rejeel, if you want to pull this.

Up, my, my favorite Fed watch tool.

Your favorite watch, yours has always historically been Bloomberg's world interest rate probability.

Except there's one little problem with that.

Now I don't have access to Bloomberg anymore.

This was free 99 boys and girls.

What Jill pulled up here, Chicago Mercantile Exchange currently showing a 91.7% probability of a rate cut going into the.

As of today, we're recording the show on September 2nd, so that's only going to get higher based on the data that we've seen so far.

And when you see, when you see data this strongly favoring a rate cut of 25 basis points, and I should point out it shows a spread of 400 to 425 at a 91.7 probability, there's also a spread of 425 to 450 at an 8.3 probability.

Basically saying that there's not going to be a rate cut.

Right.

Because that's where our rates are currently sitting at.

And that's just saying there's an 8% chance that we are going to remain right where we're at.

Yeah.

And anytime you get well over 90 like this, or frankly even over 80, you can pretty much guarantee it's a lock.

And this number will generally creep up higher as you get closer to the actual 16th and 17th meeting.

Right.

And I know that we're going to go over now shortly some data points that the Fed is going to be looking at.

Right.

But I think the key point here isn't we reference, I believe on the last episode, episode that dropped today, that commentary around in Jackson Hole.

Right.

He wanted to make it.

This is how they're controlling the narrative.

Right.

They're telling you this is what we're, we're focusing on.

So when you get prints of CPI and PPI moving forward.

Right.

That are suggesting that these, these, they're not coming down to our target figures, don't be surprised when we cut rates because if, remember, if those figures stay high, they technically should not be cutting rates.

But part of their dual mandate is, hey, we want you to know we're really looking at unemployment.

And when those numbers come out, that will suggest why we're going to cut rates.

And that's why the commentary in Jackson Hole is the reason why you'll see this 91.7% chance at there being a 25 basis point rate cut.

What really bothered me about Jackson Hole, and for those of you who are what I would call Fed Watch nerds, was you could see a very palpable change in narrative.

That was a CYA thing.

They were trying to cover their ass.

Yep.

They were preparing to say, we know that some of this data likely will and is not coming out in the way that we want it to.

But despite that, despite our position going into the last several months and frankly years, we're going to Pivot and we're going to cut rates.

They're trying not to say that it's politically motivated.

The tough part for them here too is, okay, yes, they've now reached an inflection point where the data is going in opposite directions of one another.

Historically it was like, okay, we have historically low unemployment rates, which we still do have.

Right.

It's now creeping the other way.

But we have historically low unemployment rates and high inflation.

That's every reason for us to keep rates high.

But now they're working in opposite directions.

So you have to pick and choose the hard part for them.

The hard sell is, I mean, still, unemployment rate of 4.2, 4.3, even 4.4% is still considered historically low.

Granted it is backward looking data, but the Fed is not known to be, you know, playing it ahead.

They should be reacting off data.

Yeah, but you know how I know this is bullshit?

Okay, tell me.

Let's just be real practical about life.

Okay?

The last 10 years and I'm approximating some numbers, so trolls in my DMs.

Not today.

Okay, last 10 years we've seen price inflation increased 20% to our cost of living.

All of us, we live a life that is 20% more expensive today than it was 10 years ago.

But our salaries have not gone up by a take home 10% number.

So we are all feeling it in one way, shape or form.

Yep.

Okay, so I would argue that jobs are the lower worry here.

Frankly.

A healthy unemployment number above 5% means there's normalized migration from job to job in the economy.

Right?

A number of 5 or 6%, for example, historically meant that people were going from one job to another job with ease and that a certain amount of unemployment was baked into that transitory migration.

But if unemployment is super, super low, it also means that less people are leaving their jobs, they're staying in their jobs for a little bit longer, and there's obviously high, high demand for employees in the market.

That kind of dovetails into that nicely.

So I would say us looking at jobs as the biggest concern here is foolish.

I don't care about the revisions down.

You know what I care about?

Risking inflation going up higher.

And I understand the political position the Fed is in and I understand you have to be proactive versus reactive because you can't just change the Fed funds borrowing rate and see the economy slow down on a dime.

It's going to take a slow trajectory kind of cadence to slow this thing down.

You're going to think of it as a pendulum swinging you can grab, you can hold on to it, you can pull it, but it's still going to swing opposite of you until such time as you pull it, bring it to a stop.

So the momentum is going to carry it forward.

I know all that, all those things, I get it.

But to me we could see unemployment tick up, but we can't see inflation.

We can't afford to have inflation go up.

Yeah.

And that's something that we've been preaching for a long time now is I know what everybody would like to see is easier times again.

And they think that if we were to just cut rates, okay, things can just go right back to normal.

But what you're really risking and what, what we haven't seen for a lot of people, they've just been living in, you know, this fantasy land for the last 15 years.

Right.

Where if you don't fix this, this three, four year window of it all being a problem can turn into a decade long problem.

And this is where I constantly get into and I, I will admit that it, this is, this is my fault.

I'm the asshole, okay.

I constantly get trolled by people in the real estate sphere on X that have like devout beliefs that they are right.

There was that guy recently, right.

That was, was trolling you for demand.

You are.

We haven't said this in a long time, but demand without affordability is not demand.

Yeah.

I try to dumb down the ideology of it because basically if all and somebody else use an example of a car basically saying the car prices are one thing said, you know, demand about affordability doesn't mean people so don't want, want to buy Lamborghinis.

But if all cars are Lamborghinis, which all homes are expensive now.

Yes.

Then you're not going to be able to sell as many cars as you would be if there were more affordable options.

Right.

Well, I think the definition of demand in this, in this scenario also means that you are in the market to buy.

That, that's the demand.

Not, not demand in the sense that I would like to, I would hope to own one day.

No, no, no, it's, I'm in the market to buy.

I, I have a demand to buy right now.

Yeah.

And if you can't afford it, then you're just window shopping.

Yeah.

Right.

I mean, so it's, it's a fallacy to say, and here's the problem, okay.

And I'm, I'm gonna, I'm gonna offend some people.

There's a lot of really talented realtors out There a lot of people in the real estate industry listen to the show.

I respect them all.

But there's also like every industry out there, a lot of assholes, okay?

So I make the mistake of getting an argument with somebody who acts like they know so much.

I make a comment, I've been banker, I'm a lawyer, I've done this for a long time.

I kind of know these things.

I understand it comes off arrogant.

It's not arrogance.

Okay?

It's not, it's not political allegiances or any of that bullshit.

You know what it is?

It's just me trying to say like I'm steeped in this business, but I forget that everybody feels like they're steeped in this business.

Everybody.

So in loan officers we talked about on the show, and mortgage real estate people generally have one real estate economics course, Real estate principles, real estate economics.

That's about it.

They don't have like a deeper, you know, economic spin.

So what do they do?

They listen to their favorite media outlets for, for their updates.

Yeah.

And unfortunately for most people, especially for their talking points.

Yeah, unfortunately for most people, it's not shows like this where we don't have a bias.

I'm not trying to get real estate professionals to buy into my rhetoric or your rhetoric.

We're not trying to placate sponsors.

We're not trying to sell a product which requires you to buy into our philosophies.

Not yet.

Right.

It's a free service both ways.

Right.

So I, I make the mistake getting an argument with some guy who's a full on real estate pundit, basically saying that I don't know what I'm talking about and that I have no idea, and that real estate values, you know, aren't going to go up dramatically and this and that.

So I do, I take his image, I do a reverse Google search because of course he's got an anonymous account.

Got to.

Yeah, anonymous account.

He's a former youth pastor in Illinois.

Right.

Who's speaking very, very inappropriately to me.

Leave it at that.

And he's accusing me of being a liar and all these things.

He started in real estate in 2018.

Okay.

There's nothing wrong with that.

He's got a wife, two kids.

He has a personal account that's got his name on it.

And this anonymous account which he uses, the troll people, at least this is what it came off as.

And I got his name, I got his NMLS id, I got his home address.

If I wanted to blast somebody publicly, I could.

And I'm sitting here thinking to myself, when you got your license, I had already been in real estate for 20 years.

I got my real estate license in 1998.

Okay, but that doesn't.

That discounts all the other experience I have in.

Well, that's what I was.

That's what I was gonna say, right?

Like, okay, you having your license that long and helping people along the way and doing the deals that you did along the way isn't even a fraction of what you know and why you know what you know.

But here's the part that bothers me.

Think about that time in business.

If you got into real estate in 2018 to now, you've been the benefactor of this unprecedented artificially interest rate, low economy.

Anybody and everybody was making money in the game.

And this is your first sense of pressure in the real estate space.

So now you're taking out your frustrations, your fears, your internal monologue of fears of what the real estate economy could be if you were wrong.

And you're doubling down on the fact that you know more solely because you have an anonymous Twitter account and you want to trash anybody who's spinning a narrative which really inherently scares you.

But you don't want to say that, right?

So rather than blast anybody, I looked at his profile, looked his information, I thought to myself, what am I doing?

Why.

Why am I arguing with this person?

And I always try to be collegial in the arguments.

But more importantly, it stressed the fact that how much emotional sensitivity is around what's going to happen in the next two weeks with the fomc.

And for those who, like my brother and I had a conversation, he thought that, oh, yeah, rates are gonna get cut, rates gonna go down.

Let's walk this through logically.

If interest rates go down, and you're right, mortgage rates go down, which by the way, last time, interest rates were cut, bond market went up, mortgage rates went up.

Okay, but let's just say you're right.

Real estate industry professionals who believe this, what does that do to affordability?

Right?

If mortgages are cheaper to get and easier to get, more people are buying, there is more demand for that limited supply, which by your own admission in the space is very limited, that drives prices up further.

Now, if you're a real estate professional and you have people who can buy because rates have dipped, the mortgage loan officers, the real estate professionals, the national association of Realtors, their solution, the affordability crisis, is always lower rates.

It's never lower home prices, because why would I want to earn less commission?

Because I get paid on commission and it happens to be the larger loan amount or the larger home price.

They'll all say, I don't care.

It's not my, it's not my advocacy.

It's fine.

But that's what, that's what your group, your lobbyist group for your trade group is arguing in Washington on your behalf.

Very convenient.

That it benefits you the most.

Very convenient narrative which upsets him every single time.

And his, his shot across the valley this particular.

Guys, I'm so tired of these people saying that, that homes are so unaffordable.

And another person came at me the other day about, you know, institutional homebuyers are changing the supply, the market.

And I said, okay, I've seen the same argument from a number of people.

I've never seen compelling data which suggest that institutional buyers in the market are meaningfully moving the market.

And I hate to break the bear, bad news here to most people in society.

Institutional owners of real estate have always been there.

They've just not been as visible to you, the consumer, who have now seen a spotlight on it.

Because media has turned to that direction.

Right.

Why?

Because lobbyist groups who have a vested interest in keeping prices the way they are, pitch that like it's news to the media.

And you read it thinking, oh my God, this is shocking.

Big corporate America is taking advantage of us.

Okay, well, that's the case.

Always.

That's always been the case.

But also this, this commentary ignores the fact that we have, we haven't said, like, sit on the sidelines and continue to wait.

Your home prices are going to come down.

No, look, look, we've always said your home should be viewed as a utility.

Right.

It shouldn't be viewed as an investment, even though it's the number one investment tool for the middle class.

And you can afford a home, buy one.

Buy.

Right.

But that ignores the emotions and the sensitivity of so many Americans who cannot afford to buy one.

Right.

Cannot afford to buy one.

Exactly.

And it should still be within your means.

Remember what we say, don't look at what the bank or the broker tells you you qualify for.

Make sure that you actually can afford the payment.

Right.

Because what you qualify for is not the same thing as what you can actually afford.

That's right.

Right.

Reasonably, anyway.

Exactly.

So let's get into a little bit of the FOMC here and let's set the tone for what's going to come next.

Okay.

With a 91.7% probability of a rate cut, let's just call it almost 100% at this point.

That means a cut is basically priced in today.

So all the mortgage rate drop that you've seen in the last couple of weeks, this is the way this plays out in real life.

The bond market starts to drop and lenders say, how can I get ahead of this and start making mortgages today?

Because if I have to sell a mortgage on the secondary, on the secondary market, right.

If I'm JP Morgan Chase, Wells B of A or any small community bank and I originate a loan today at 6%, right.

And I know rates are going to be at 6% in a week because rates are going to cut, then I can originate at a little bit lower price today than if I didn't know rates are going to cut.

I wasn't, I wasn't so certain about it.

So yeah, I'm making an educated guess with 90% odds, if I told you go to Vegas and bet on a blackjack table and you got 90% odds of winning, you're going to feel a lot more confident making those wagers.

Right.

That's what the banks are doing.

So mortgage rates are falling in line of the treasury.

Why would a bank even do that?

Because you're trying to keep origination volume going.

Right.

Banks make money primarily on the spread.

The net interest margin, the money they collect on loaning out your money and the money they pay you on using your money and deposits.

Right.

Your deposit rate is what they pay you, the loan is what they get paid.

And the difference to spread is usually north of 2%.

Right?

Right.

And that's also the cost to operate a bank.

And it's, it's really important thing and.

A big reason why a lot of banks got into trouble when the FOMC decided to raise rates so quickly at the cadence that they did.

Because it really didn't allow banks, especially regional banks, to plan accordingly to help their net interest margin.

And there is an argument to be made that these banks should have hedged the risk and had some things in place in order to hedge their bets on interest rates.

But it never happened before at the cadence that it did.

That's right.

It was unprecedented.

Yeah.

So, so the real question for this meeting is not will they cut rates or not?

It's will we see a 25 basis point rate cut or a 50 basis point rate cut?

You know, JP ain't coming out swinging like that.

I don't think so either.

He's not a drop.

He's, he's not coming out on the table and just dropping it like that.

Here's yeah, because, well, and they're also.

The other part of it too is he's gonna be accused of political interference if he got that deep early.

You're only doing this because the politics behind this, jp, which is a problem for him.

He does not, he does not want to cross that bridge.

No, no.

He's so close to finishing his term, he's like, let's just.

And he doesn't want that.

And I mean, the man won't even wear a red or blue tie.

You know what I mean?

So let's, let's.

He's playing it safe.

Let's be honest about what we're dealing with here and why we're dealing with it.

So how do they cut, how do they frame the future cuts?

Is it going to be one and done or is it a cutting cycle?

I think that's a very important thing.

I think people, for the most part, and I see the people, the people.

I think a lot of Americans believe that like, just like they ra.

They raised rates, you know, 1, 2, 3, 4 times every single consecutive meeting, that the rate cuts might be the same.

Thing is we're going to cut every consecutive meeting till we get back down.

No, no, no.

Where we were at before, we are not going to again.

No, no, no, I agree.

I completely agree.

And look, I can already tell you what JP is going to say at the post game press conference.

He's going to leave all three options wide open.

We're going to continue, we're making no commitments to future rate cuts.

We're going to continue to be data dependent in our approach.

We're going to look at unemployment.

We're going to really focus on unemployment because they want to make sure they seem like they're, they care about the labor force.

And if we have to stay where we are, we'll stay where we are.

If we have to cut rates and the data suggests we need to, we'll cut rates.

But look, I mean, if, if, if inflation starts to spike again, we might have to raise rates.

Boom.

All three options on the table.

And I feel like this is the exact same conversation that Leonardo DiCaprio has with every girl who's turning 25 in a year.

I mean, those conversations are becoming more and more limited.

He's, I mean, he's coming up there in age.

Now listen, I understand what you're saying here, but I'm gonna leave my options on the table because I might do another movie that's got, I mean, there could be another Titanic out there for me, okay?

No, there's not though.

There are plenty of sex symbols in their 60s.

Brad Pitt looks amazing.

Okay, Sud, I'm just saying.

Yeah.

People, oh, he's so good looking.

They overlook the fact that he's a terrible dad.

Is he?

Is that a thing?

I don't know.

Dang, bro.

I'm out here presenting all the teams.

He gossip.

What's the rumor?

What's the rumor?

No, because the reason we got divorced is he was, you know, had like a drunken rage on a plane, went after packs or something like that and yikes.

And Angelina Jolie like, no, no, you don't hurt him.

I don't know how she got British all the time sudden, but you know what I mean?

But apparently he stopped drinking.

He went to rehab.

That's how I met him.

And Dax Shepard got close.

He walked into Dax Shepard's rehab.

That's why podcast.

So I need one of you guys to become alcoholics and go to rehab so we can get good guests in the show.

Okay.

Will you pay me?

Done.

No.

You want a drink?

Done.

I'll make this happen.

Say less.

Yeah, but yeah, that was actually a really good show and he was very forthcoming, but God damn, he's a good looking dude.

So going back to what you said, I mean, the last time we had a rate cut, the bond market responded differently.

We actually, they had baked in, they had baked in the lower interest rates up front.

And then when that cut actually did happen, rates actually went up the other way.

Yeah, I think there's a high probability.

Why does that happen, though?

How does that, how does that even happen?

So bonds are indicative of both the near the short end of the curve and the long end of the curve, where you think money should go.

And for a long period of time, we had an interest rate, an inverted yield curve.

Right.

There was less confidence in the future, the future of the economy, and more confidence near term.

I have more of a clear vision into what's going to happen, but because for a lot of American history, the future in America was always, we are the backbone of currency.

We knew that to be true.

So you put your money here, you were confident in leaving it here.

So long term, interest rates paid more.

Right, Right.

There was confidence in it.

So you got paid more for your money over time in that bond market.

Well, there's a lot of uncertainty.

There's a lot of uncertainty.

Right.

And so when, when the US needs money and they borrow money in the form of IOUs, aka treasuries, right.

There's three forms or shorter Terms or middle terms.

There's longer terms, right?

You got your treasury bills, your treasury notes and your treasury bonds.

Okay?

Now, over the course of the next 12 months, you boys did a little bit of research.

That's weird for me.

We're a little weird for you, Right?

Over the next 12 months, the US has to refinance $11 trillion in debt, or 9, sorry, $9 trillion in debt.

And they're going to have to borrow an additional 2 trillion for the overspending that we continuously do every single year.

So that's $11 trillion right?

Now, here's the problem.

If Treasuries come down, right, but you have all the credit agencies that rating US's debt come down lower, right?

There's.

What if there's an actual fear of is this going to be the first time the US really might not pay back their debts and is that coming around the corner?

I think that fear is there now.

Right?

I think that's a real fear.

You've seen gold spiking recently.

So what?

That's very recessionary.

Gold and Bitcoin going up the way that it is means that people are losing confidence in the US dollar and they're going into those assets they think will be okay no matter what happens.

No matter what happens.

So what happens when Treasuries come down lower?

There you go.

Market summary, Global futures market.

Three gold futures.

Yeah.

Oh, gold futures.

What happens when Treasuries come down?

Right.

That's a big number on 24, on.

Six months, on treasure, on treasury notes that are T bills that are under a year or right, or notes that are between two to 10 years, or bonds for anything past that, if it's too low and they need to attract more investors, that could be individuals, that could be institutions, that could be different country governments.

If they need to attract more because they need to refinance $9 trillion in debt, what do they have to do?

They have to raise the rates that they're willing to pay back.

That's right.

So it doesn't matter what the FOMC might do, Right.

So it.

There's more at play than just the fomc.

Well, the FOMC doesn't really have a control over the international landscape here.

They're only pulling the levers domestically in the us as far as currency goes, it's foolish to think that, that the Senate and the House and the executive branch, legislative and executive branches can't do things that are going to change everything the FOMC has done.

So you really got to think about what's coming next.

Powell's conference will be, you know, combed over for hints for months following what happens in the 17th.

But is it a one and done insurance cut like in 1995?

Right, that's what happened in 1985.

They cut once and that was it.

There was no more fodder, there was no more communication.

That was it.

But it was a less communicative Fed.

Or is this the start of a series of cuts like in 2001 or 2007?

But 2001 and 2007 were the dot com bubble bursting and the Great Recession.

If we're not in a recessionary economy right now, I would imagine you wouldn't get a series of rate cuts.

There's not a need to do so to stimulate the economy.

Right, right.

So you, you may just get one near term.

The odds are obviously still kind of weird and wonky for, for December, but yields have already started to fall.

Anticipation of the cuts that we talked about and stocks are at near highs.

So if you look at the stock market as a proxy and you say, okay, we're at near market highs right now.

Right.

Why would you need to cut more?

You drive values up in homes.

And if home prices are at their all time high and some people argue that relative to income, adjusted for inflation, 1980s were slightly higher.

Okay, fine.

Geniuses who have some kind of statistical analysis that's superior to everybody else, it's the second highest price in history.

Does that make it better for you?

Did that make it better?

Do you feel better about yourself?

But yeah, but back then you didn't, you didn't really have the dual income households either.

There is.

Well, exactly.

And there's just such a wide disconnect to.

It's almost like people who got into the business or got into a home before all this are just salty as.

And saying, well, I did it so you kids can do it too.

That ignores what life is like for the next current generation.

Right.

And I, it's, it's a material disconnect in my mind that is almost selfish if you want to call it that.

Right.

Because you, you have to be very, very.

If you're a real estate, if you're a real estate professional and you represent a lot of people who buy homes and sell homes, maybe you are tone deaf to it.

There's a lot of people who can't even walk into your office to have that conversation because they know they can't afford it.

Yeah.

So you just not talk to those people.

Is that what it is?

Yeah, exactly.

It's just, you know, this isn't for you.

Yeah.

I guess the September meeting is the last one before the election cycle really heats up.

There's another conversation to be had there.

Cuts this close to November can be spun up as political, something that Powell hates.

So I don't think you're going to see a 50 basis point rate cut just for that.

That alone.

Not to mention the existential pressure he's been getting in the media.

Expect extra defensiveness in this meeting.

He'll stress it's about data, not about politics.

Over and over and over again.

Right, I agree.

And look, if.

If 50 basis points by the end of the year is truly on the table, that's still in line with their latest summary of economic projections that they released last, where they said we could see up to two rate cuts by the end of the year.

Right.

So why would they, why would they come out the gate and drop a 50 basis point cut when they could do 25 now and do another one in November?

Right.

Especially when you don't have data all pointing the same way.

Again, you have conflicting numbers from jobs and from inflation data.

But let's get into that.

Right.

So higher core inflation read unlikely to knock Fed off their course.

Rate cut in September.

This from the Yahoo Finance article.

Rejeel, if you can.

So kind.

Thank you, sir.

Oh, God, he's so money.

Yeah.

On point, you know.

Rajil.

Hey, we should do a thing on the show Regil.

This is before your time.

We should make him do it now.

You.

Can you read this author's last name.

Please make him do it now.

Yeah.

Jennifer Schonberger.

Schonberger.

Why they all.

It's like they're messing with us.

For a long time, every author we.

We, we saw had had a penis reference name.

It was all phallic.

Yeah, it was all.

It was phallic.

Right?

There was a Dick Burger.

Was there a Good Burger?

There was, There was like a Ken Dong.

Yeah, there, There was so many.

Everything.

Yeah, there was, there was a bunch of like.

Yeah, there's a bunch of references.

That wasn't our fault.

We came off as perverts, but we, we're just reading names.

Yeah.

Crediting the source.

Bro, don't get mad at.

I'm pretty sure those were all pseudonyms.

Everybody's riding under 50 knew what they were doing.

Yeah, we were mature enough to have those conversations back then.

I'm still not mature enough.

A fresh reading on the Federal Reserve's inflation gauge inched up again.

But it's unlikely to knock the central bank off its course to cut rates in September.

Today's inline PCE price index will keep the focus on the jobs market for now.

The odds still favor a September cut, said Ellen Zenter Sentner, chief economist, chief economic strategist for Morgan Stanley's wealth management division.

But the size of that opening is going to depend on whether labor market weakness continues to look like a bigger risk than rising inflation.

Best believe they're going to continue to harp on that.

They are.

Personal consumption expenditures.

PCE index is on a core basis, which excludes volatile food and energy like Sayed and I have talked about on the show before, rose 2.9% from a year earlier, up from 2.8% in, in the previous month and the highest since February.

On a monthly basis, core prices increased 0.3% for the second month in a row.

So let's go back two years when Jerome Powell and the FOMC decided to carve a new path for themselves.

The historical trend had always been, let's get inflation down to 2 to 3%.

Yep.

Right.

And Jerome Powell and the FOMC decided to make it a point.

We want all of you guys to realize we are aiming for 2%.

Not.

Not anything in between 2 to 3%.

2%.

2%.

Only at the same time, they changed the unemployment healthy number to a different number.

Right.

They.

They changed that.

Exactly.

From what historically had been viewed as 5%.

I think it was.

Rafael Bosa came.

I was like, you know, since I've started my time here at the FOMC and it's.

It's now looking like it's around four and a half.

Like four and a half to 4.7%.

Yeah.

Yeah.

So they're moving the targets to be more conservative on both ends.

Had they not have moved the targets, you would have seen rate cuts already.

Yeah, exactly.

I don't.

So I wonder if they view that as a misstep.

Like, man, why do.

Why do we do this?

Like, were they trying to let everybody know, no matter what we do, we're holding these rates higher for a very long time?

Just say that then.

Right?

Spin a different narrative.

Why pigeonhole yourself to 2% and only 2%?

Groupthink is one of the most interesting human phenomenons.

A person is intelligent, in most cases are intelligent enough, but a group of people together generally makes some dumbass decisions.

I've seen it time and time again in business where a group of people who should be intelligent, logical and thoughtful, pragmatic make stupid, rich, rash, lazy decisions because nobody Wants to challenge the other people in the room for an idea.

Because they know that's not how they earned that seat at the table.

They didn't earn that seat at the table by challenging.

They just went along with the flow.

That's right.

And people generally go along with things.

It's either that it's one of two things.

Right.

Either you know better and you didn't want to challenge, or you're faking it until you make it and you, you really just don't get it.

Well, and let's be.

Let's be clear here.

Getting board seats, for example, it's not about being an outlier.

How well do you get along with our people?

How well do you know them?

Does your resume and pedigree lend itself to us having a better image in the market?

Good.

Great.

Now come on board and don't make any static for us.

Okay.

Like, how many people really know these board members?

Right.

It's the CEO that's the face normally.

Right.

This is why some.

You know who Carl Icahn was?

Of course.

Yeah.

All right.

One of the, if not the most prolific activist shareholders in American history.

Yeah.

He wrote, he romanticized the activist shareholder thing.

Right.

Where, I mean, there, there are real dark sides to.

To that whole realm.

Oh, yeah.

Right.

And then.

And he, he was not somebody who stayed away from those dark sides.

Yeah.

So maybe explain to people what.

What that means.

I mean, there's that documentary.

We've talked about it on the show, Netflix.

I watched it twice, actually.

I thought it was sensational because they didn't shy away from.

From his darkness, if you will.

But he grew up, I want to say New York, a traditional Jewish family, if I recall correctly.

And he just was really brilliant from a young age.

He was really, really, really sharp.

And he was always a bit of a different kind of guy, but he called people out for shit.

And he just.

And there are ways that people do this that I think are terrible.

And there are ways that I think people do it that are logical.

And everything that he did that I've seen from an activist perspective was always under the auspices of being logical.

He was known for going into these large companies and saying, you've got this massive middle level manager, you got executives up top, these mid level managers, three different levels of management, and the employees that report out to him.

Do you need all three?

And he would go into companies, be like, what do you do?

Yeah, I don't understand your title.

Yeah.

And he would restructure things, but he would go in, he Would pressure the board to sell or restructure to bring value to the company and then exit.

And there are very, very predatory activist investors out there.

They are definitely not all good people.

Matter of fact, most of them are bad people.

I don't know that Carl Icahn was a bad one.

You know, I'm sure they have all had their moments.

And to some people, he's probably viewed as a bad one.

If you remember the movie Wall Street.

Yeah.

The original movie with Charlie Sheets, Michael Douglas.

Yeah, yeah.

Carl Icahn.

What a student.

The guy is a stud.

I mean, literally stud.

He was.

That's him in his plumper days up top.

But he got really skinny in the bottom right corner there.

That's him.

Yeah, that's him now.

He lives in Florida now.

I think he moved to Florida.

Yeah.

Still alive.

89.

Yeah, he's.

He's stud, man.

It's interesting to see his life now and.

And how he lives in Florida versus how he was in Wall Street.

Yeah.

Believe this.

Went to Princeton, nyu, Grossman School of Medicine, Far Rockaway High School, man.

One child.

Nyu.

Yeah.

Imagine stepping into that.

Yeah, but he's also like.

You can tell he's not the kind of guy who's going to live like hyper lavishly.

No, no.

Yeah.

I mean, he's got nice things, I'm sure, but got a tremendous amount of respect for the way he did what he did.

He took a very dark, corporate raider type business model and he did it in.

In a way that I thought was ethical.

You know, a lot of these guys are not ethical, But I was always looking fascinated.

If you can ever see that the.

Look up the Netflix title to Carl Icahn's called icon.

Yeah, I think icon spelled I C, A H, N. Yeah, that's his last name.

Yeah.

Netflix documentary.

There it is.

He was.

Oh, he was a significant Netflix investor too.

There you go.

Maybe that's why it's so favorable.

I don't know that it was like really favorable.

I mean, he talked about his dark side too.

The restless billionaire icon.

That's it.

Yeah, I was on hbo.

Sorry.

Even better.

HBO does it, right?

Yeah, they don't really miss.

Have you ever seen someone on HBO that missed?

Yeah.

What?

They changed their goddamn name from hbo?

Yeah, to Max.

I don't get that.

I don't get Max to back to hbo.

I don't get that either.

Just come on hbo.

Get your together.

No, but I'm talking about their TV shows.

All their shows always hit all of them.

I don't Know about all of them.

Tell me one.

Honestly, I really don't watch HBO that much anymore.

I remember back then.

I remember back a time when if a comedian had a special released and it came out on hbo, that was.

That was the place.

Now it's Netflix.

Now it's Netflix.

Netflix controls their data.

You don't know.

You don't know what the streaming numbers.

Do, but they tell you if it's good.

The biggest don't care.

They're like, just, yeah, hand over the check.

Write me the check.

We know.

Yeah.

You think I'm gonna get a call.

Up for that one?

Probably not, my friend.

Probably not.

Yeah.

So should we go into the meetings that coming up next?

Yeah, please.

So we got a meeting on September 5th.

I'm sorry.

Meeting.

We have data coming out on September 5th.

Non farm payrolls.

Non farm payrolls is the headline jobs number released monthly by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Right.

One less employee.

We know that somebody lost their job there recently.

Some of the reporting was revised down.

So it's going to be interesting.

This one's actually going to be kind of interesting to see.

Okay.

Are the numbers changing to look more favorable towards the administration or imagine the.

Remain consistent if he gets told they have to be revised down or really some bad numbers.

All jokes put aside, though, Seriously, like, this is.

This was my biggest issue.

Like, obviously we should have.

We should all take issue with somebody like that being fired for just doing their job.

Right.

But now people have to question on the data that they're presenting because they're afraid of I might lose my job.

This is.

Bro, it is what it is.

This happens to a lot of American workers every single day.

Nobody wants to give bad news to the boss.

Okay.

Do you recall a time when you had to give, like, bad news to boss where you're like, I want to do this.

Oh, yeah?

Yeah.

Oh, yeah.

Give me one.

I'll give you one.

That's still ongoing.

What?

Yeah.

Hey, you know that.

That property that we financed in this location?

Yeah.

We're getting sued for it.

I'm sorry, what?

Yeah, we're getting.

You had to tell them.

Okay.

Yeah.

And why?

You know, I don't really know.

Chris.

What do you mean you don't really know?

Why are we involved?

Yeah, why are we getting sued for?

I don't.

I don't think it's a logical lawsuit.

I just think we're getting sued for.

That's bullshit, Chris.

Yeah, it is.

Yeah.

Yeah.

What's our deductible again?

750,000.

Okay.

Cool.

It's for 60 million.

Yeah.

So we'll probably be paying that deductible.

Oh, ouch.

Yeah, No, I remember plenty of times where there have been like, loans that we're doing for borrowers that have been long.

Have some long standing relationships.

Right.

And they have clearly have a relationship outside of just doing loans.

Right.

They, they have, they've used some of the other products at the bank, so clearly like an invested customer.

And yeah.

There comes a time when you're literally juggling like 7, 8 loans at a time.

So you're underwriting, you're underwriting and, and you're coming to come close to like a closing date.

And you're like, okay, this thing needs to get submitted and funded and you run the cash flow and you're like, oh, man, we're in the 11th hour.

Yeah.

And I got to cut this guy's loan.

Yeah, that's happening.

And then it's like, I got to go tell the boss, like, hey, I can't, I'm not, I can't make this work.

Yeah, somebody's going to have to tell them, not me.

Which is why it's super critical to have people in the front end that know what they're doing and have the understanding from an ethical perspective to work the transactions on a preliminary screening basis in a way that meaningfully reflects what will happen.

Underwriting.

Because these people, like, especially like at some of these, like regional banks, some of these people that are borrowers for a long time and have like, relationships, you know, not only do, not only do we know them, but like they know the CEO dude.

Yeah.

Right.

And so it's like, CEO has no idea what's going on with the daily operations, but then gets a call.

It's like, wait.

And then they got to find out who's underwriting this loan.

What's the problem?

When I was underwriting deals, I would get calls like that.

Yeah.

All the time.

Yeah.

I was like, hey, man, I'm sorry.

This is, this is what it is.

I can't, I can't change.

Keep in mind, when we started, everybody knew the CEO, right.

Every deal that came in was, was a friend of the CEO.

Yeah.

Right, right, right.

And, and foc.

Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah.

Exactly.

You're just like, all right, let's, let's go.

Yeah.

You know, it is what it is.

Let's go back to non farm payrolls for a little bit here.

Why they matter.

It's going to give the FOMC and society kind of the general Pulse of the economy.

Right.

Jobs are the single most direct indicator of economic health.

If companies are hiring, it suggests growth.

If they're cutting, it suggests contraction.

If the economy is contracting, then there's going to be a lot of hesitation as it relates to rate cuts.

Inflation link.

Of course, strong labor market means that higher wages, which can fuel consumer spending and inflation.

So if we're hiring less people and there's not as much competition for wages, they're just not growing as much.

Less people buying stuff, less weight, less spending, consumer spending.

Right.

Well, think about it.

How much of, how much of real GDP is made up of consumer spending?

Right.

A majority of it.

And then, and here's the other problem here, another great portion of GDP is government spending.

So that little department that the administration tried to put together to cut government spending so we wouldn't have to borrow as much.

Really, what, what's happening is, okay, we're going to cut government spending, but that also is going to impact real gdp, which is ultimately going to trigger a recession, which is ultimately going to cause less tax revenue.

I mean, it's all intertwined, baby.

It's all, it's very complex.

It's complex.

And more importantly, this September 5th non farm payroll, it's the last jobs data that comes out before the 17th meeting.

Oh, big one.

Yeah.

So you know they're going to rely heavily on this one.

So this, this is one, this is the one.

Yeah, this is the one that's going to go, okay, are we doing this?

Are we not doing this?

Because there's not going to be a job somewhere between the 5th and the 17th.

Right.

So expect to see if you're looking at Chicago Mercantile Exchange or World and Trade Probability, expect to see those odds increase as a result of whatever comes those, those non farm payroll responses.

Then on September 9, you've got preliminary benchmark revisions.

Oh, the last time this happened, somebody lost their job.

Hmm.

So this one's a little less sexy than non farm payroll.

But it's a sneaky important thing because it rewrites the backstory that the Fed and the markets think they're working with.

So they could come in and say, okay, you know all those, all the data we gave you the last couple months, we're gonna revise it down a little bit.

But Trump and the executive branch have surreptitiously cut this off a little bit because anybody who's thinking about revising numbers down now is going to think twice because their jobs are now in jeopardy.

Because the head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics Lost her job because of a large revision down in jobs.

Right.

So now.

Sneaky.

Good luck.

Sneaky.

Sneaky, sneaky.

Yeah, but you're really gonna.

This is what you.

You're gonna have to do if, if this is the team you play for, you're gonna have to lean into this.

You almost want to.

I would like to see you try to fire another person for reporting the actual figures.

Like, that's going to be a hard sell.

Yeah.

You.

Somebody else that steps in that like, is now viewed as the interim head.

Right.

And you're going to.

They're going to produce an unfavorable number for you and you're going to also fire them.

Like, what's really going on?

Right.

Like, come on.

Well, every year the Bureau of Labor Statistics reviews its payroll survey data from the establishment survey used for the nonfarm payrolls, by the way, against a more comprehensive and reliable source, the state unemployment insurance tax records.

When they compare the two of them, revisions can and do happen.

The preliminary benchmark revision is the first look at how far off off the monthly jobs reports have been over the past year.

It's basically a fact check, if you will, on all the job growth numbers we've been obsessing about up into this point.

We had that one, I want to say, a quarter, two quarters ago, where they ended up revising 800,000 jobs downward.

Yeah.

That's a lot of jobs, dude.

Yeah, dude.

That's not a.

That's not a little bit.

That's not a.

Can you imagine a job where you're.

Like, imagine me being off that bad.

Right.

Imagine me being off that bad on a loan.

That's like 30% of the jobs they've been propping up.

Yeah.

You know, like a lot of those jobs we're saying were out there.

About 24 to 30% of they don't exist.

And you know you're not real.

I know.

And you were using that data to support your decision on not cutting rates.

My bad.

Yeah.

Oops.

Yeah.

So.

Yeah, just, just forget about it.

Just keep going.

It's amazing how this happens.

So why, of course this matters.

You're rewriting the job story.

Credibility of the Fed's playbook.

Market shock potential.

These revisions don't always make headlines, but when they do, they're big.

So for example, somebody lose their job over it and signal versus noise.

This one's important.

I want to get in this a little bit here.

Think of non farm payroll as the monthly scorecard.

Okay.

The benchmark revision is the league commissioner saying okay, that's so true.

That actually we miscounted some of those wins and losses.

Yeah.

So those teams you thought were winning their bracket, they're not winning the bracket anymore.

Yeah.

Imagine Adam Silver coming out and being like, listen, guys, I know the Minnesota Timberwolves, we think that they're really good, but we gave them a couple too many wins.

We're going to have to revise some of those down and prop the Lakers back up again.

We have a real tough time counting.

Oops.

And apparently we counted into twos in a couple games instead of ones, so those wins were two one wins instead of one win.

And really, they only had, you know, less.

And.

But trust us, we figured it out now.

Yeah.

So this is not trying to get them out of the playoffs.

We're not.

We're not doing that.

Right.

Like the Lakers or somebody else in.

Yeah, we wouldn't do that.

No.

Right.

But it also helps our ratings.

It helps the narrative that we got a good product.

That's basically what's happening here.

Yeah.

Yeah.

And of course you're going to manipulate something.

Right.

And if you want to put on the tinfoil hat.

Right.

Let's do it.

And you wanted to manipulate the outcome of things.

This is your last shot.

Okay.

How so that Bureau of Labor Statistics.

The boss just got this.

Got kicked out.

Yeah, right, right, exactly.

It's all free game now.

But also, yeah, also if.

If you're trying to, like, rub some elbows and be like, oh, I could be one of you guys trying to make a name for yourself.

Goes both ways.

This might be your time.

Be like, hey, I'm ready.

Hey, sub me and coach.

I got this.

I understand the assignment.

I got it.

This is where the manipulation can happen.

Right here.

Right.

Because you can change.

You can go back.

Imagine this.

You can go back in time and change everything.

Yeah.

Oh, you.

You cheated on your wife.

Not anymore.

Men in Black.

Yeah, that's what it is.

You can rewrite history now, right?

You can say all that stuff that we said before.

And you, if you wanted to, you even.

You even have a fall guy.

Hey, that girl you fired, the head of Bureau Labor Statistics, Let me tell you why.

She messed everything up.

I've been telling her for months.

Nah, but there'd be.

There have to be way too many whistleblowers.

Come on.

Too many people.

Whistleblowers in the government, bro.

Have you ever seen a whistleblower in the government really come out?

No.

People gonna have to come out and be like, listen, no, I was there for Those.

I, I was the one that, that submitted the report.

No, that's the way this works.

Because I, I could prove right now it's okay.

How many people have come out as whistleblowers, protected whistleblowers in recent years and said, I saw a ufo and society's like night and night did it.

Right?

That's a lie.

That guy's cuckoo for Cocoa Puffs.

That's true.

Yeah, that's true.

A lot of people, a lot of people, they're just like, man, just keep your mouth shut.

We're about to get our pension.

Stop.

Yeah, stop talking.

I'm just saying.

But you're protective whistleblowers.

And I came out and said that I saw aliens and you don't believe me, right, Because I don't see an alien.

That's what I'm whistleblowing on.

Yeah, right.

That's exactly, exactly.

You know, I saw something that you didn't see.

That's why I'm putting it out there.

You look crazy to me.

What does crazy look like?

You.

That's what society says.

It's so messed up.

So whistleblower comes out.

What do they say?

Yeah, you're just a political allegiant person.

You just try to, you know, you kiss in the ring, right?

Or they're coming the other way.

Oh, you're just like a leftist.

You just don't like the, the current campaign.

This is political.

There's no way you can come up with a heavy revision and not be blamed.

It's crazy how we've gotten to a point now where people can literally have the masses not trust data.

Yeah, right.

Like I don't care what gets printed.

You can't trust it, bro.

The only way people ever gonna believe I'm gonna go back to the alien reference because I love it, that aliens exist is you're gonna.

It's got to be like Independence Day with these giant, like city sized saucers fly over everybody.

People look up and they go, well, I guess that's not Russia.

Yeah, but now they've, they've created such great AI videos that they'd be like, I can't trust this.

That's Huawei.

That's AI, bro.

100.

That's the latest drone by DJI.

Yeah, there's a reason why they were banned in the usa.

Do you see why?

Yeah, now it's coming full circle.

Yeah, they have these silent drones, huh?

Yes, man.

You've seen.

They have some new drones, by the way.

They're mini drones that are like the size like, fitting your palm of your hand.

So sick.

That, like, super fast.

That, like.

Oh, I went down the rabbit hole after that episode that you showed me.

The ones that blowing up in the hip people.

What?

Oh, yeah, yeah.

That was.

Yeah, hold on.

That's out there for everybody to see.

That wasn't like, on the.

The black, like, the dark web.

Right.

It's like, no, no, no.

Yeah.

I was like, there's a guy doing a TED Talk on this.

Speaking of which, I'm gonna.

I'm gonna embarrass my wife a little bit.

My wife today was like.

We went to lunch with Sarah and Helen, everybody, right?

And, you know, we were at lunch and we're talking and.

And my wife goes, oh, my husband's got really attractive feet.

She has a whole feet thing.

And like, that's bullshit.

It's an ongoing joke.

But she goes, I'm gonna start an only fans account for him.

What's the app?

How do I download it?

And I'm like, baby, it's a website.

Yeah.

She goes, how do you know that?

And I'm like, damn it.

Dang.

You got.

That was a setup, bro.

You didn't see it.

It was a setup.

You didn't see it.

And I'm like, it's a website, honey.

It's not.

It's not.

Yeah.

It's not.

It's not an app.

Yeah.

It's not like social media.

Yeah.

They don't have an app for it, though.

They have to have an app for it on your personal device.

Yes.

Company equipment on your birth.

Can you please verify.

Google don't go to a website.

Google does.

Only fans have an app.

Yeah, yeah, yeah.

For the website's inquiry.

Yeah.

Or that's.

It's request as only fans.

Yeah.

My search history needs to show.

Saeed wanted to know.

Yeah.

Christopher wanted to know about some girl named Bonnie Blue.

Who's that?

Say.

I don't.

You brought her up on the last episode, bro.

OnlyFans does not have an official mobile app available on stores like Google Play or the App Store.

Logged into your profile.

My God.

Come on, Rajille.

Well done, sir.

My wife's gonna be like, why are.

You looking for only fans?

Yeah, it's on.

It's recorded in the show.

So there's your proof.

Convenience, baby.

I was looking for only mans only man.

Right, Man.

Only feats.

Yeah.

Only footsie.

I love the.

The Goodwood Arenas podcast that I listen to from time to time.

They get their segment at the end of the show where they take on emails and Questions, they call it mostly fans.

Oh, yeah, Yeah.

I was like, oh, that's clever.

There's some haters in there.

All right, so the, the two other reports that come out, by the way, September 10th, we have PPI, the producer price Index measures the average change over time in the selling point of domestic producers receiving their output.

What's really interesting with this one is unlike cpi, it captures the cost pressures early in the supply chain.

So usually this moves the markets.

Yeah.

Because more proactively because they can see if this is higher than, you know, CPI to come, PCE to come, that's going to also be higher because if wholesalers have to incur more cost, we already know they're not going to, they're not going to continue to hold on to that burden.

They're going to pass that on to the consumer eventually and at some point in time.

So this show will come out on September 9th.

Right.

So the day that the preliminary benchmark revisions may or may not happen, they're going to come out and say something.

Then the day afterward, on Wednesday the 10th, you're going to get your first look at PPI.

And the bond and currency traders often react strongly to PPI because it's one of the first inflation signals each month coming just one day before cpi, which will be the next day on the Thursday.

I don't see it.

I don't see them reacting too much off this one.

No matter what comes out.

Because, because the cut's happening.

Yeah.

Right.

If, if it was uncertain, let's just say the Chicago Mercantile Exchange had it at like 50, 60 chance of a rate cut, then maybe.

Right.

But this, this cut is baked in, baby.

It's happening.

Yeah, no, it's going to happen.

Ths prediction that's locked in.

Yeah, it's rare.

We go 100.

It's been a while.

Yeah, it's.

But I think it's, it's 100 accurate that we're going to get the rate cutting 25 basis points.

I do think that the bond market is going to rise afterward like you saw last time.

And I do think the FOMC is going to hedge their bet their bets and be continuing to watch data.

I think some of the data that they're going to get is not going to go their way.

You have ppi then you have CPI come out the next day.

Right.

I think that PPI will reflect CPI slightly rising.

People are going to talk a lot about tariffs and, you know, some of the stuff that's changing or not changing, but I think we're in for a bit of a ride and a bit more volatility before people start to feel calm about stuff.

Okay.

Side.

Go ahead, get.

Get it over with.

I know what you're gonna do.

We have to address this.

We do.

No, this.

This is a teaching moment here.

And.

And one that deserves clarification at the.

End of the show when nobody listens.

Strategically done by my dad.

Right.

So we do this thing on the show where if you leave us an honest 5 star review and clearly sometimes a 2 star review, we'll read it on the show.

Yeah.

And we'll get into it.

And especially this one, we'll dive into maybe a little bit deeper.

Right.

But this from CPT Engineer.

Good versus evil.

Two stars.

Ouch, bro.

Not being honest.

I still don't.

I mean, when you read the review, I didn't think it was.

I mean, yeah, there's not a whole lot of hate.

No, I didn't.

I didn't get that vibe at all.

I thought it was supposed to be a five star review with just some criticism, but then the last couple, like the last sentence or two about me kind of threw me off a little bit.

Yeah.

Which, I mean, this was done in April, so clearly some things have happened since then.

So if CPT Engineer is still listening to this, maybe this will.

This deserves a revision.

Right?

Maybe.

Let's think about it.

So CPT Engineer says a show once grounded in reality.

We see here a juxtaposed view on the same topic.

Saeed misspelled intentionally, I think.

So Shout out.

Respect.

Great vocabulary, by the way.

Yeah.

Respect, right.

Yeah.

Representing the common man, family man, hard worker and with more morals.

Why are you laughing?

Honestly.

Honestly, it's.

Honestly, it's hard to hate.

I feel like the two stars we got was because of me.

If 100.

Because what he says next is pretty.

Much like there's some love there sitting.

Across from the devil.

And he does wear product.

There's.

There's definitely some love there.

Versus Chris the Trump apologist banker, doing what is necessary to reach the top.

They bring their honest point of view to the same topic.

Okay, okay, hold on.

All right.

Honest point of view.

Okay.

If it's an honest point of view, and that is a point of view.

Look, sometimes we've made it very clear on the show.

We try to keep it.

We don't try to make it political.

Right.

Now, that doesn't go without saying that whether you like the current administration or the previous administration, there's things that you can agree with.

Whether you're with them or against them.

Right.

Of all times to say you're 100% one way or the other way.

I mean, that's.

You're not even being honest with yourself.

Well, let me be, let me be clear.

I have never openly stated my political affiliations on the show.

I think people assume them because I have a tendency to give the other side of the equation.

I do in times defend the President's position, not because I'm a loyalist to him or that I like him at all, because it's good to give the other side of the position.

So much of what we see in society is extremism.

You're a complete loyalist to the left, a complete loyalist to the right.

I try to give the other perspective whenever I can.

So.

And it just so happens that we tend to be pretty level headed and even keel.

So because of that, we wind up in the middle.

So I usually just take the more aggressive side, which happens to be that one.

And to be, and to be honest with you, like, I feel like a majority of the people are very much moderate.

Right.

Dead center in the middle.

Yeah.

And there's one or two subjects that pushes them one way or the other generally.

But from, from the conversations that I've had with, with family and friends and I mean, I was a political science major and you know, just, you know, I went to law school for a year and just having these types of conversations, you can tell.

Okay, I see why you, why you tend to go this way.

It's generally over one or two topics.

Yeah.

Which clearly offended this person.

But let me, let me address some, some of that comment.

Okay.

If number one, I do not endorse a lot of behavior seen by the executive branch.

Okay.

I'll just be outright and open.

But that has been independent of political party in the executive branch for decades.

I didn't agree with a lot of Obama, with Clinton, with Trump, with even some of the Bush administration.

Right.

I have my favorites for some of the things they've done along the way.

But I am not a believer in political parties in voting.

Right.

I never wanted to vote based on.

A political party or this popularity contest.

I hate.

This is just a popularity.

Yeah.

We've now pivoted too, to extremism.

Getting votes in a sensationalized way, bro.

People want the Rock to run for, like, what do we do?

Like, come on, guys.

Like, this is not, this is not what this is supposed to represent.

But that being said, doing whatever it takes to get ahead.

I took, I took a little bit of beef With, I just, I'm going to be inflammatory here.

I just left my fucking job, dude, because I wasn't willing to do those things because I've got morality talk about a guy who doesn't understand a single fucking thing about me.

Now we said like this was back in April, but back then I thought it was also very clear that you, you weren't going to do those things either.

But now, more so than ever, that has become abundantly clear.

No, I stand, I stood 110% behind the morality and ethics to leave a job with nothing else to, to do the right thing for me, for my family, the people around me.

And I spent months lamenting that decision largely because I cared more about the employees than I did about my own personal health and well being.

And, and I still do, frankly.

And just based on conversations that I've had with people that are more so in, let's just say my position, right, that look, I, I have to go to work every day and I'm going to do the best that I can at my job and continue because I feel like I need to, right?

I don't have the, the extra income that let's say I haven't invested as well over the years.

That's almost everybody in society.

Now, what was somebody, what people in my position would probably say would be like, yeah, easier to do, bro, because you make so much money on the side.

Let me tell you, it's not that easy, right?

You're, you're having to up and leave everything that you've ever done, right?

And you have to embark on a new journey, a path that's just unknown, right?

It's a huge gamble.

It's.

I think people misunderstand a couple things too.

Like the optics of being an executive at publicly traded institution are very different and they play to your ego a lot.

Imagine me, okay?

This is going to be interpersonal.

But fine, imagine being in my shoes and I'm a notable figure on Bloomberg, on the Wall Street Journal.

But the day that 8K comes out and I've departed the company and that filing is made.

Yeah, but I don't think people understand what that is.

But it's a, it's a change.

It's a significant change that affects the market essentially.

And I'm paraphrasing that you tell the street that this executive, a publicly named executive, is leaving.

And I was one of those types of people.

Overnight, my profile in Bloomberg and Wall Street Journal gets erased.

It's like I was never there.

Now if I get another job at a public traded company in the future, which I don't have any in current desire to do, then that'll show up again with my history and I'll be out there again.

But it's like you're like you vanish overnight and your entire identity that's wrapped up in this.

If it is and mine wasn't, thankfully, can, can be completely challenged.

You go from being this person who's getting all these emails every day, every day.

You're important, you're notable, you're all these things to if I don't send an email, I don't hear from anybody, right?

And people go, oh, well, it's easy, blah, blah.

It was, let's use the podcast studio as an example.

And Rajille was here for me, with me for a lot of this, right?

And inside you saw it too.

If you're working 16 hours a day, on the weekends, you're working nights, you're spending months planning to build something like this in untraditional hours.

But you also can't talk about it because people in the job will say that you're not doing a good enough job, not because you're not doing anything tangible, because you couldn't possibly be choosing to sleep less and see your family less and to do blue collar manual labor on your own to finish something.

Right?

Because why would you do that?

Right?

No, they don't, they can't begin to comprehend or understand because it's the, it's the, the path less taken, right?

And it's much, it's much easier for somebody to just follow along and just go about it and just.

You know what I mean?

Oh my God.

Yeah.

Like, like this path.

I don't know.

So I thought it was a little bit unfair.

Right?

No, look, I respect the comment, but it's just.

We respect it too.

But look, it deserves some explanation and we're very candid on the show.

We, we've opened up a lot over the years on the show and people deserve to understand the, the bigger picture on, you know, what it is that you've done and what you have.

One day I will tell the story and I, I have to get through some milestone markers from a litigation perspective.

But one day when I tell the story, the, the reason why that's such a hurtful comment.

And I, the guy who wrote it didn't know this.

There's no way he could know, right?

The reason why it's such a hurtful comment about the sacrifices that I chose to make and why I chose to make them.

And I Didn't do it for me, that I did it for everyone else.

And that story will come out at some point and when it does, that'll come off as such a mischaracterization of who I am.

Yeah.

That it's astonishing.

And what sucks is that clearly that person listens to the show.

Clearly that person knows us well enough.

By personality and clearly enjoys it to some.

Some degree.

Right.

Like, because you're so amazing.

Yeah.

Cuz some of us got to carry the show, bro.

You know what I mean?

Some of us are carrying the show, representing, hey, I'm the people's champ.

Full circle, the rock.

You see what I did?

I see what you did.

Okay.

Okay.

Yeah.

Right.

So no, but anyways, I.

We generally.

Well, we.

We've gotten plenty of disrespectful commentary over the past and we're like, okay, we're gonna be there.

I think that was disrespectful, to be honest.

I didn't think it was at all.

It wasn't too disrespectful, but it, it was, it was claiming.

And you are marking you to be something that I don't believe is true.

And I felt like you've earned the right for us to address it.

Well, yeah, I mean, it was a little shocking to me when I read it, but it made me go.

They think, think.

Do I really come off that way?

Like, I'm willing to do anything to get ahead if anything.

Like, that's been my biggest downfall, my career is.

I've not been willing to do the dirty stuff.

No, no, no, I don't think so.

I would you, bro, of all people, there's one guy sitting across the table from you that would definitely let you know, like, hey, take it easy, bro.

It's like, chill, relax.

Yeah, that doesn't.

That's not gonna land very well with the listeners.

Yeah, well, yeah, unlike you, I've got to bleep out every once in a while.

As long as we're staying in the black, right?

Virgil, you've been real quiet tonight, buddy.

What's going on?

Oh, no, it's just chilling, man.

He's out there, he's having a good conversation.

Just chilling.

Yeah.

He was doing his job, bro.

You asked him to pull stuff up.

He had it up.

You know, he did do his job.

I'm not saying that he didn't, but, you know, you did promise your wife more than six words at a time.

You promised your wife.

It's gone to this level.

Now you're having.

She looks intervention she does shout out.

And she was like, right, yeah, Shout out.

Katrina.

Katrina's like, look, Regil, I need you to say more words.

Oh.

So when we eventually do the wives episode, we're gonna have three wives in here.

That's gonna be.

That's gonna be very damaging and deadly for you because all the wives know you.

It's not good.

Yeah.

Yeah.

And his wife's not afraid to.

And your wife's not afraid to.

No.

Yeah.

I've known your wife longer than known you.

And also.

Very true.

Yeah.

It's not good.

Not good for me.

It's going to be a good one.

It's going to be a wide open episode.

I'm going to need a second colorectal surgery after that one.

Right.

So this episode is going to be episode 299.

That's right.

And then the next one's going to be the big three Hundo.

I. I got to talk.

Non alcoholic beer is going to be passed around.

We haven't done an episode.

If I was ever gonna drink again, that might be the scenario.

Excited, bro.

I'm gonna show up early.

Yeah.

I might be on time.

We'll just uber here.

I might.

I might drink for episode 300.

Yeah, we should have a little bit.

Some.

Some people in the back I have hanging out.

Remember those Portugal port wines?

Yes.

I've got two new bottles that I never opened at the house.

Done.

I'm hard.

Yeah.

One of them's got my name on it.

The other.

The other one you can split with Fijian.

Boy, it's that easy to drink.

Yeah.

Yeah.

What.

What would we do there on that show?

What do you want to talk about?

300, like a look back?

Yeah, let's do a look back and talk about how shitty our first episodes were.

Yeah.

We're gonna.

We're gonna have to do some roasting for sure.

We're gonna have to bring up Sam Zel, and that's a must.

God damn it, Sam.

Kermit is such a g. Such a gangster.

Yeah.

Yeah.

We're gonna have to bring him up.

I mean, we're.

And we're gonna maybe do a little dive into some of the stuff that Jerome Powell and the FOMC said and.

And how it relates to today and how they maybe got it wrong.

And we can.

We can still turn into a finance.

That'll be the week before.

So that'll be the ninth when we record.

Will be the week before, but it'll come out the week of.

The week of.

Okay.

Huh.

Brazil.

You get ready to have a drink.

Oh, yeah.

I'm always ready.

We should probably Uber here.

Yeah, dude.

You know, on the streets they call them stays ready.

That's his name.

Stays ready, bro.

Back in my day.

I've become the back in my day guy, by the way.

Oh, yeah, I'm.

I'm there.

I'm.

I'm.

I bought in.

Yeah.

Between you and your boat shoes, I.

What took you so long?

Oh, boat shoes.

They're just low.

The Olakais, bro.

I mean, get it now?

But you were wearing boat shoes before everybody else was, like 10 years ago.

Oh, yeah, Sperry's.

Yeah, See, I. I was.

Yeah.

I can't even say what I was gonna say because they would get us canceled.

There you go again.

Bleep stuff out of the end of the show.

That's it.

I gotta.

Yeah, I have to.

Have to have a couple episodes.

Go clean with no bleeping before I ask you to bleep something out again.

So we really can do this next episode.

Look, you're stressing about.

We don't have to do this, man.

Don't feel the.

It's not.

Don't be peer pressured.

What if we just smoked weed the whole time?

I don't do that.

I've never actually smoked like.

Like a.

Like a joint.

Is that what it is?

I haven't done it since college.

Never enjoyed it.

Yeah.

It just makes you tired.

No.

Didn't even understand the feeling.

Like, this is.

What is this?

Yeah.

I'm not a. I'm not a big.

Yeah.

I will drink my ass off.

I will.

Yeah.

All right.

Cocktails and dreams next episode, boys.

Yeah.

Bring your air mattresses.

Bring your port wine to work day.

Oh, by the way, Aria is very, very much salty that Adam's been here, so I have to bring her.

Bring her.

Yeah.

Not the next episode.

But we'll.

Yeah.

Probably nothing about the right time.

Probably not the right time, but.

Yeah.

Yeah, she.

She wants to come and we'll have to let her do a little on screen thing too, because she's like, that's not fair.

He got to do it.

Why not me?

Oh, at the end of the episode?

Yeah.

We have to record like, during the day then.

Yeah.

You can't hear, like, this late at night.

That's joy.

And it's no longer summer.

Yeah, yeah, yeah.

It will have to do.

Maybe on the weekend.

Okay.

Yeah, no problem.

Yeah, because what time is it now?

It's Tuesday night and it's 9pm for anybody tracking well, it's 5 to 9, so.

It's almost time for free talk.

The problem is you've got two, right?

I got two what?

Kids.

Yes.

A lot of things, too.

Otherwise, we could do a.

An opening of a show with Regil son behind the mic and our sons on.

Oh, that would be so cool.

We could make that happen on a weekend.

I'm down.

I know, but they.

Nobody can tell your daughter.

How do you make.

How do you make that right?

She's already bitter about the.

She's going to come in with the WWF belt on her shoulder, tag in and sit the chairs up to you, buddy.

Yeah.

It is what it is.

Not all things can be Fair's not fair.

Life's not fair.

Okay, hold on.

Adam's.

Adam's at the age now where he can sit in the front seat occasionally, right?

Like, I let him, but he technically can.

Can get away with it whenever he wants.

He has the right height, right age, right weight, all that.

Right.

What's the height, Agent?

Weight?

Can't remember.

It's over like 70.

70 some pounds for weight.

But, like, he.

He clears all the metrics.

Right?

Okay.

And.

And I don't like doing it because it's still.

It's still not safe.

And I've heard some people, some nurses from the emergency rooms talk about, like, just don't do it.

It's just not a good idea.

Just keep them in the back.

But it makes him feel like a big boy, and all of his boys get to do it.

So I'm like, if we're driving down to Target, I'm just gonna let him, like, okay, we're nothing on the freeway or anything, right?

Long distance.

But she's asked me, like, he gets to sit in the front.

Why not me?

I'm like, bro, like, he's two years older than you when he.

When he decides to drive.

And when he does get to drive, that doesn't mean you get to drive, too.

It's just part of the game.

Okay, there you go.

There is no single federal age to sit in the front seat.

However, safety guidelines from organizations like the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration recommend that children under the age of 13 years old should ride in the backseat because frontal airbags are designed for adults and can cause serious injuries to a child.

No, but in California, I think there is, like, a weight limit.

If there is, I'm sure my wife can't sit in the front seat.

There you go.

There you go.

Adam's 4 foot 9 inches tall, bro.

Yeah.

Yeah, he's.

Dude, he's kind of big.

He did he didn't get the jeans for me, so he got him from somebody else.

Someone from my wife's side of the family.

Don't do this.

I know where your mind is going.

I know where your mind is going.

Don't be disrespectful, bro.

I had.

No.

No, that's.

Yeah.

True story, Reil.

My son was in for his, like, one of his annual checkups, and I'm there with my wife is like, he's one, I think.

And I'm there with my wife and Adam, and they're doing all, you know, where they're measuring them and weighing them and, like, oh, he's in the 90th percentile.

And I get the stuff.

That stuff, like, tapers off, and it'll eventually taper off for him too.

Right.

But during this time, he was still in the 99th percentile for height and weight.

Right.

And I'm in the room with my wife.

Right.

I haven't introduced myself yet to the doctor.

Really?

And he.

And he goes, wow, daddy must be tall.

I can't be the daddy.

It's that obvious that I can't be the daddy.

What's going on here?

Like, that's.

That's wild, bro.

Like, what?

You wouldn't.

You don't have enough decency to look over and be like, hey, bro, are you the.

Are you the dad?

Did you leave a one star review?

Honestly, I should have kind of yelled.

Yeah.

Something you don't pay for.

My co. Pay with that comment Right here is heist.

Right.

He is a highest.

I should have started something.

You know, I have.

I'm not gonna take the bait, by the way.

Just.

Just, you know, I'm a bigger person than you, literally.

But I am.

I am going to give you a similar story where I walk into a doctor's office with my dad, who's five five, tells everybody's five eight, Mom's six, four.

He tells everybody he's five eight.

I love that.

He does.

Yeah.

That's why he wears Heal.

The times where he puffs up his chest when you walk in the room.

Yeah.

I tell Adam I'm 5 8.

And he literally goes, dad, you're 5 7.

I'm like, Relax, I'm 5 8.

Truly, I am.

Why are you doing this to me?

Why?

You gotta take it or take it away.

So my dad, same thing, but, you know, a couple inches shorter.

Yeah.

And they always look at me and go, I don't.

I don't understand.

And my mom walks in, they go, wait a minute.

How Did.

How did they.

How do you make that?

And then that's game.

Yeah, It's.

That's got game.

It's got a lot of.

I'm grateful for that part of the DNA, let me tell you.

Yes.

Because I could not imagine life differently than I've lived it.

But I definitely got my mom's height.

It sucks for both of us.

So both of us can buy off the rack.

Yeah.

I can't buy pants.

Can buy pants, either.

I got to get everything hemmed.

Everything's got to be hemmed.

And.

Yeah.

And then big boy problems.

Shoulders too wide, you know, nothing fits right.

But too big.

There's nothing.

Nothing fits right.

It's at some point, you realize growing up that, like, clothing wasn't really designed for somebody your size.

Actually listened to.

Remember Chris know from the leverage.

He was on the show.

He just did a pod recently where he's.

Yeah.

Let out some secrets, and on that.

Podcast, he was talking about how he made, like, his company made, like, $20 million from Biker Denim.

That's right.

Because.

Right.

He was the first big one in that.

Right.

He was the first one to make it in plus sizes.

Bigger sizes, because when it came out, it was all designer.

And then he came out and started making it for, like, the athletes and everybody who were a little bit bigger and thicker and, like, the legs and.

Like, he knows a lot of, like, NBA guys, too.

Yeah.

So that.

That's how.

That's how that spread, like, wildfires.

People like, I like that design, but it's.

It's skinny fit for those people only.

So they took a skinny fit design and made it for bigger people.

I remember when that came out, I was like, this is.

This is hard.

I liked it, too.

I never could own a pair because your boys got the teardrop thighs.

Fun fact.

I actually intentionally lost weight to buy two pairs of.

Of skinny bikers in a background because.

They were so cool.

Yeah.

And it lasted for a solid six months.

And then I tore the asshole.

Yeah.

Yeah, of course you did.

Yeah, yeah, yeah.

All right.

You got anything else, Virgil?

I do have a friend who.

Oh, yeah, that's right.

There's a question.

Yeah, so I have a friend.

Oh, he's a friend.

We didn't know.

Yes.

Yeah.

So I got it.

I got a message, guys.

And.

From your imaginary friend.

Yeah, so my imaginary friend messaged me.

Oh, yeah.

Asking if we can give a brief description of what an RMD is.

So I was like, say what again?

Say it again.

Say what?

You chest.

So can you give.

Can we give a brief description on.

What a required minimum distribution.

Yeah, yeah, the 401K.

Right.

Yeah, right, right, right.

It.

It's still currently 73, but I think in 2033, it's gonna go up to 75, I believe, the age.

But basically when you hit a certain age, the irs, the, the federal government requires you to take mandatory minimum distributions from your retirement, which for a lot of the working population can become a very stressful thing.

And the reason why this becomes stressful is more and more adults are staying in the workforce and they want to continue to work and contribute to their 401k and see it grow.

And if you happen to be, let's say, in your 70s, where this is a requirement for you, let's say 73, and you've got the benefit of having done this for 20, 30, 40 years, if not longer, you probably have a couple million dollars.

Well, the minimum distribution is, I want to say it's like, it's a pretty heavy number percentage wise.

So I think on, like, for every million, it's like $25,000 in minimum distributions.

If you got, if you have a traditional ira, you're paying taxes on the, on the distribution.

Right.

Because you didn't pay taxes on the money going in, so you're paying it on the way out versus the opposite where you have.

When you have a Roth.

Yeah, right.

Well, you're getting a tax exempt still on some level, but so effectively that requires you to start taking money from your 401k.

And I think that's where people have the hesitation, what makes them nervous.

Right.

Yeah.

Well, again, you're taught your entire life to save, save, save, and now you're being forced to use it.

I think the biggest misconception people have is you go withdrawal factor.

Yeah.

26.5.

So for every, you know, required minimum distribution.

So during your dividing your account value by this factor determines your annual distribution.

So you divide by 26.5 to account for the expectancy.

The IRS Public 590, Table 3, Uniform Lifetime requires a minimum distribution of 56,603.

77 for $1.5 million.

If you had.

Yeah.

If you had a previous year balance.

Yep.

So what.

See what, what it's at at 1 million should be about.

Should be 26.

Yeah.

37.

37,735 for.

Yeah.

So you got about $2 million.

50.

50.

$50,000 minimum distribution.

So.

Right.

That.

That's a pretty hefty amount and people are really weirded out by it.

Change for a lot of People is scary.

Right?

And you go from this period of save, save, save, save, save, save, to now I can spend.

Now I'm required to spend.

Right.

People are still trying to find structured tax advantages with.

You know what I tell somebody in their 70s like this, that's dealing with this first time.

If you're in the workforce.

Yeah.

Fucking enjoy it, man.

Yeah.

You've worked for it.

Congrats.

You've earned it.

Spend that money on stuff that's going to enrich your life.

Yes.

You can live to be 93.

Yes.

You might need 20 years more money.

Then go take half that money.

Buy something nice for yourself.

Take the other half of it.

Invest it in something.

Dude, we have.

I have.

I have two different kids at home.

I have a kid that loves nothing more than to save, and I have a kid that loves spending every last dollar and some.

And I'm like, oh, my God.

I got.

Like, how is it?

So as a saver.

No, Adam, really, bro.

Adam does not want to spend a dollar of his money on anything.

Nothing.

Right.

The only thing that he'll spend his money on if he gets, like, a couple extra bucks will be like, let's go to yoga land.

Like, he'll spend it on.

On things like that.

I've been a yogurt minute.

Right?

Like, he likes that.

He's.

He's got a crazy sweet tooth.

Oh, my God.

But Arya will spend like she wants.

Like, there's these new toys going around that all these kids like.

And not just kids, I think, like adults, too.

They're called Labubu or something, but you know this.

Yeah.

Come on, man.

No, I'm just getting hit to this, bro.

It's $60 for a keychain.

What are we doing for a kitchen that people wear?

She's.

And I was like.

I was like, aria, you're.

You're going.

Hold on.

Aria, you are all over social media.

For, like, last six months.

Where you been?

My social media is comedy and basketball drills.

That's all it is.

And finance stuff.

I guarantee you some of those basketball players walking into the NBA franchise had Lubu Boos on their waist.

Maybe I wasn't paying attention.

Right?

The wives all have them on their purses for sure.

Yeah, but there's lefufu's everywhere.

I'm literally telling her, hey, last week when you bought this thing and you stopped caring about it, it's going to be the same thing.

Why?

And that's not how it works for girls and trends.

Doesn't work.

She wants to be hip and cool, man.

She wants to be.

And I'm literally having.

I'm having this conversation with her in bed last.

Last night.

I'm like, explain to me.

Just explain it to me.

You're not going to explain it?

No, I'm saying, explain to me why it's cool.

What makes it cool.

Saying, why are Backstreet Boys cool?

Back in the day, your generation, why?

They're in unison.

They're a team.

They're a team.

Tell me why you were a Backstreet Boy.

Huh?

It was.

It was NSYNC all the way, bro.

Jt, I wasn't the one.

Come on, stop.

Nwa, Bro.

What does that stand for again?

Good night, everybody.

Bye.

I'll do both of them, bro.