Double fisting tonight.
Speaker ALook at you.
Speaker BYou out here giving me two drinks.
Speaker BYou're an enabler.
Speaker BYou're an enabler.
Speaker AI know you're into fishing.
Speaker BWe're gonna cut the show early tonight because I'm clearly gonna have to pee in about five minutes.
Speaker AYeah, exactly.
Speaker BBetween the sodium, potassium, the ghost energy drink.
Speaker BI'm just trying to get a sponsor from somebody out here.
Speaker ASomebody, anybody, you know.
Speaker AWelcome back to the number one financial literacy podcast in the world.
Speaker AThis is the higher standard.
Speaker ASitting in front of me is my partner in crime, Christopher Nahibi, Hydrated as a. Yeah, yeah.
Speaker BComing in hot today with.
Speaker ALet's go.
Speaker BEarning that parental discretion advisory.
Speaker AThere you go.
Speaker BC Crosh me.
Speaker BMy partner in time.
Speaker BAlso known as the liquid saboteur, the man, the myth, the legend Sideomo, everybody.
Speaker AThank you, my man.
Speaker AAnd sitting behind the ones and twos in the production suite, if you will, the Fijian himself, Rajil.
Speaker AWhat's up, my guy?
Speaker AWhat's up, everyone?
Speaker AHow y' all doing?
Speaker AYou had to take some Tylenol before the show and Excedrin and etc.
Speaker BAnd caffeine.
Speaker AYes, that's a great.
Speaker BWe don't talk about this enough on the show.
Speaker BHe suffers from migraines.
Speaker BOh, like chronic migraines?
Speaker AYes.
Speaker AThere was a.
Speaker AThere was something that went viral recently on a migraine.
Speaker ALike hack.
Speaker ALike it was a McDonald's.
Speaker AOrder a Coke and french fries.
Speaker BStop right there.
Speaker BNothing you.
Speaker BNothing you say afterwards.
Speaker AIt's really just sugar and salt.
Speaker AEssentially.
Speaker AThat's what is supposed to cure a migraine.
Speaker BIs there?
Speaker BThey don't have like a biological reason rejeel of why that happens for you?
Speaker ANo, I have no clue.
Speaker ALack of sleep?
Speaker ANo.
Speaker AProbably like stress induced.
Speaker AToo much screen.
Speaker AYeah, a little bit of stress.
Speaker BSo the reason why I bring it up, ironically, levels are high.
Speaker BSo that's how much he loves us.
Speaker BHe's literally looking at three massive ass screens, light shining about three feet from his face.
Speaker BMaybe two.
Speaker AHe's willing to do whatever it takes to make the show happen.
Speaker AWhat are you willing to do for the show?
Speaker BLike subscribe, follow, tell your friends about it.
Speaker BWatch the live streams.
Speaker AYes.
Speaker AShare with a friend honestly.
Speaker AAnd buy the merchandise.
Speaker ABuy the merch.
Speaker AFree advertisement for us, please.
Speaker AWe don't make a dollar off it, but I mean, give us some free 50 cents.
Speaker A50 cents.
Speaker AOkay, 50 cents.
Speaker BIt's hard working.
Speaker B50 cents.
Speaker AWe got a dollar out of 15 cents or 50 cents.
Speaker AWe gotta go.
Speaker AWe got a somewhat of like an older episode.
Speaker AWe're gonna dive into some economic Data.
Speaker AWe're gonna dive into some reports that are coming out this week and explain why they're important and why you should be tuning in and paying attention.
Speaker AWe're gonna go into all the things that will be coming out, some that have already come out this week and the rest that'll be coming out later in the week.
Speaker AAnd we'll give you a little bit of nuance too.
Speaker BSo we were recording this on Wednesday, September 24th, so we were midweek.
Speaker BSome of the data started to come out this week that we knew was going to be impactful.
Speaker BIf you've been following our socials, you've seen the comic themed highlights of the important dates, but there were a few that we intentionally left off because we didn't think they were as relevant.
Speaker BBut certainly all that information is coming out.
Speaker BSo in no particular order, the things that we thought were important for this week's economic events.
Speaker BFOMC Mirin's speech was on Monday.
Speaker BMirren, for those of you who are not up to date, was the FOMC member named by Trump and has been the biggest dissenter on the FOMC wanting all the rate cuts.
Speaker AYeah, not dissenting because they did a rate cut.
Speaker AHe actually wanted a 50 basis point rate cut and much more for the remainder.
Speaker BNine.
Speaker BYeah, yeah, he wanted like nine.
Speaker BI mean, so if you see like an outlier and a dot plot or someone saying like this person wildly disagrees, that's married.
Speaker AYeah, exactly.
Speaker BNow you know, then on Tuesday, yesterday, services manufacturing PMI data.
Speaker BNothing really sensational there.
Speaker BBut what was sensational on Tuesday was Fed Chair Powell came out giving a speech.
Speaker BAnd I'm not going to say that he's full of shit.
Speaker BThat would be rude and inappropriate.
Speaker AThat's a little insensitive, Christopher.
Speaker BBut he was really discounting the impact of AI on jobs.
Speaker BOkay.
Speaker BAnd I'm like, okay, you look, let's just.
Speaker BI don't want to be ageist, Okay.
Speaker BI want everybody in the room and everybody listening at home to know that I like everybody regardless of their age.
Speaker AOkay?
Speaker BComma, let's get comma.
Speaker ABut.
Speaker BBut if I had to ask somebody who happened to be, let's just say in the room with the three of us right now, okay?
Speaker BOne was Saeed Omar.
Speaker ARight.
Speaker BOne was Rajeel, one's Big Chris.
Speaker AOkay.
Speaker BOkay.
Speaker BAnd the other one's Jerome Powell.
Speaker ARight.
Speaker BHe's probably not the guy whose opinion on AI I would take.
Speaker ARight, Exactly.
Speaker AI wouldn't.
Speaker BI don't think he uses AI.
Speaker AYeah, exactly.
Speaker BHe used the vowels.
Speaker AYeah.
Speaker AHe knows.
Speaker AHe, he definitely knows that it's.
Speaker AIt's inflated asset values in the stock market.
Speaker AHe has said that asset values in the stock market do seem elevated.
Speaker ASo he does recognize it there.
Speaker ABut I wouldn't necessarily say he understands the role and the impact it'll have on jobs.
Speaker BI just don't know why, like, any, I get how people go, like, hey, does this influence the jobs numbers?
Speaker BAnd jobs is one of their mandates.
Speaker BSo I see how you get to that question, but if I really wanted the answer to that, I'd probably ask, I don't know, Elon Musk, Sam Altman, you know, maybe somebody who's got a little bit more of a technological background.
Speaker BYeah.
Speaker BAnd then keep in mind, just two years ago, AI was rolling out as a learning language model.
Speaker BIt wasn't, it didn't have, like, mass, mass adoption.
Speaker BIt was cool.
Speaker BNow we're getting images created out of it, videos created out of it.
Speaker BDo you think Jerome Powell knows how deep this is going?
Speaker BYeah.
Speaker AAnd the effects?
Speaker BI don't think so.
Speaker AYeah.
Speaker AI don't think so.
Speaker BYeah.
Speaker BSo he made some comments that I took issue with, but that's not for this show.
Speaker AOkay.
Speaker BThat's for a live stream later on where we're going to recap that bad boy.
Speaker AWe're going to start doing these a little bit more frequently.
Speaker BYeah.
Speaker BI want to try to get at least one in a week.
Speaker BIf something meaningful happened, I don't want to waste it, you know?
Speaker BYeah, yeah.
Speaker BLike, I don't want to, you know, everybody go to the show, be like, oh, that wasn't meaningful.
Speaker BI didn't like it that much.
Speaker BYeah.
Speaker BBut, you know, ironically, so the first one we did, it would be cool.
Speaker AIf we did it like before the show sometimes.
Speaker BLike today.
Speaker AYeah.
Speaker ANo, like, no, like, literally with both of us here right before the show, just kind of talk about what, what it is we'll be covering and it'll be dropping the following week.
Speaker BSo actually, you didn't know this and Rajeel, you didn't either, but I thought about for tonight.
Speaker BSo tonight's show, I did some chart work on the, on the live stream that we're probably not going to go into the detail with today on this show, but I intentionally had some crossover where that 20 minute livestream was essentially the first, you know, kind of 20 minutes of this show and maybe probably the first 10 or 15 minutes or so.
Speaker BBut I was going to do it, record it, live stream the actual podcast, stream that.
Speaker BRight.
Speaker BAnd then cut that off and then tell Everybody, if you want to see more, see the podcast.
Speaker BAnd we could literally do it all at the same time.
Speaker BAnd there, I mean, it's seamless.
Speaker BYou can stream and record at the same time because we record in body, in the camera.
Speaker AAh, brilliant.
Speaker BSo easily, easily could have been done, but I was like, you know what?
Speaker BBaby steps here.
Speaker AYeah, yeah.
Speaker BAs much as Jerome Powell can't talk about AI, we are.
Speaker AWe can have it up on the screen here to read the comments.
Speaker BYeah, we can do all that.
Speaker AYeah, yeah.
Speaker BWell, although it's a little weird because I have a stream key on YouTube, so I've got to work on some API, build out stuff to, to get the stream.
Speaker AI guess we could see here on our phone.
Speaker AThat's right.
Speaker AYeah.
Speaker AThere you go.
Speaker BSee, now you're talking technology.
Speaker BWe're lazy.
Speaker BYeah, so.
Speaker BBut the biggest news of this week so far came in the new home sales data that came out today.
Speaker BAnd I gotta tell you, I lost my fucking mind when this came out.
Speaker AOkay.
Speaker AWhy?
Speaker BI'm sitting at home, I'm on the computer, right?
Speaker BIt's early in the morning and you know, I'm banging away and I'm like, oh, yeah, that comes out today.
Speaker BSo I go about my day, go to the gym, I'm planning to get my truck, which wasn't ready today.
Speaker BWhole different story.
Speaker BI get to the office, bang out some work.
Speaker BI'm sitting here, it's maybe 10, 10 30ish.
Speaker BBing, bing alert comes through my phone.
Speaker BI'm hoping it's the new iPhone 17 Pro Max at the door.
Speaker BIt's not.
Speaker BIt's this article from CNBC.
Speaker BNew home sales soar 20% in August to a three year high.
Speaker BNow look, I'm an asshole, okay?
Speaker BI know that.
Speaker AYeah, so do you know that, do you?
Speaker AI've been trying to get you to understand.
Speaker ANo, no, no, Sorry.
Speaker BRejeel, can you back me up here?
Speaker ANo, no, I look in the good in everyone.
Speaker AYeah.
Speaker BWhat did you say?
Speaker AI see the good in everyone.
Speaker ASee the good in everyone.
Speaker BMan, that isn't reassuring.
Speaker AYeah, you have some good in you.
Speaker BI heard that, right?
Speaker AYeah.
Speaker AYeah.
Speaker BAnyway, unbeknownst to the world and the media and all the listeners of the show, I had actually planned a show that was going to give counterpoints to this before I knew this was going to be the headline.
Speaker AOh, yeah, okay.
Speaker BBecause I knew that the new home sales data was already going to come out somewhat wrong because of some things that I had seen in.
Speaker BIn an earlier report.
Speaker BLast Friday, Lennar reported their earnings right And I amongst others went down and did a deep dive on those earnings because I thought that would be foreshadowing into the new home sales data.
Speaker BLennar, one of the largest home builders and one of the two largest home builders that contribute 25% of the new homes in the market.
Speaker BThem in, Dr. Horton.
Speaker BYeah, so it was a meaningful report last Friday, which is why I went through it.
Speaker BSo I had already planned to refute, I guess this headline without seeing the headline.
Speaker BBut what pissed me off were the three bullet points below and say if.
Speaker AYou can be honored.
Speaker ASo first one we got here.
Speaker ASales of newly built homes rose a much larger than expected 20.5% in August compared with July according to the u. S. Census.
Speaker AYeah, B.S.
Speaker BRight, the Bureau of B.S.
Speaker AYeah, the Bureau of.
Speaker AYes, that's despite mortgage rates that are higher than they are today.
Speaker AThe median price of a new home sold in August was $413,500.
Speaker BNo, it wasn't.
Speaker AYeah, no it wasn't.
Speaker BThat is a lie.
Speaker AAn increase of 1.9% year over year.
Speaker ASo generally speaking, why does this report even matter to people?
Speaker AA new new home sales report.
Speaker BSo to be clear, this is new home sales.
Speaker BThese are new builds being delivered to the market.
Speaker BThese are not existing home sales.
Speaker BThat report will come out tomorrow along with Q2 GDP.
Speaker BThat's tomorrow, Thursday, September 25th.
Speaker BRight.
Speaker BI do believe the existing home sales will be a more indicative of the buying and selling on the market that we're seeing.
Speaker BThis one is skewed for reasons we'll get into shortly.
Speaker BThis, this amongst the.
Speaker BThe existing home sales basically tells the inventory tale of housing inventory to the markets.
Speaker BAnd inventory this month went from about a nine month existing inventory in the market down about 7.4.
Speaker BWhich you and I both know is still a healthy amount of inventory above six, six months.
Speaker BRight, Right.
Speaker BSo that's a healthy amount of inventory in the market.
Speaker BIt basically is telling the market what appetite for demand for new homes is.
Speaker BAnd that's supposed to be a proxy for the bigger home buying appeal.
Speaker BAlthough I will say for the first time in history that I'm aware of, existing homes are now harder to get than new homes.
Speaker AOkay, Right.
Speaker BSo think that through.
Speaker BWhat, what other than the luxury car market where you might have a vintage automobile, where is it normal for you to find stuff that's existing out there in the world that's more expensive than the new?
Speaker BNew, Right, Exactly.
Speaker AYeah.
Speaker ANowhere else.
Speaker AI mean they can get really fancy and creative.
Speaker ARight.
Speaker ASo builders like Lennar, Dr. Horton, or even what's the third one.
Speaker AToll Brothers.
Speaker AToll Brothers.
Speaker BThey top three.
Speaker BGood job.
Speaker AYeah.
Speaker AOh, yeah.
Speaker AOkay.
Speaker AYeah.
Speaker AI know.
Speaker AI knew Lennar and Dr. Horton, but they.
Speaker AThey can get really fancy and get creative with their financing options.
Speaker AI know they.
Speaker AI think Lennar and Dr. Horton have their own financing arms.
Speaker ARight?
Speaker ASo they can do.
Speaker AYeah, they.
Speaker ASo they can offer these.
Speaker AThese incentives, right.
Speaker ATo kind of skew.
Speaker ASkew the numbers and get people to come in.
Speaker ASo, like, they'll offer mortgage raid buy downs permanently for the life of the loan or just short term.
Speaker ARight.
Speaker AThey can offer upgrades, things like that, or add.
Speaker AYou know, give you money towards your closing costs to.
Speaker ATo sweeten the deal.
Speaker BSo what you're saying is they can be.
Speaker AThey can.
Speaker BThey can be.
Speaker AYeah, they can.
Speaker AThey can flirt a little bit.
Speaker BRail you this might be past your age demographic.
Speaker BSo I want to make sure that we're on the same page here.
Speaker BDo you ever watch P.B.
Speaker Bherman's Playhouse?
Speaker AOh, yeah.
Speaker BOkay.
Speaker BSo, you know, there's a word, a leak.
Speaker AYou admit to watching Peewee Herman before he got canceled.
Speaker ARight?
Speaker AFirst of all, we can't talk about.
Speaker BIt because the man is an American icon.
Speaker ABecause he passed.
Speaker AWe can't talk about it.
Speaker BLet's.
Speaker BYou want to do this?
Speaker ANo.
Speaker ANo, I don't.
Speaker BI don't.
Speaker AI got to be careful.
Speaker BHe.
Speaker BHe was caught touching himself in an adult cinema.
Speaker AHuh.
Speaker BOkay.
Speaker BWatching.
Speaker BI mean, watching.
Speaker AI've never been to one of those.
Speaker ANow, are you allowed to touch yourself?
Speaker BYou're not, you know, 85 years old when they were popular, when you.
Speaker AWell, I'm asking.
Speaker AAre you.
Speaker AIs it.
Speaker BNo.
Speaker BHe got arrested for indecent exposure.
Speaker AOh, so you're not allowed to.
Speaker ABut it's an adult cinema that's wild.
Speaker ALike here, guys.
Speaker AYeah.
Speaker AWhy are you.
Speaker AWhat did you think was gonna happen?
Speaker BI'm not saying he's a good guy, but I'm saying by comparative purposes, the people that he's compared to, the problem was.
Speaker BAnd they also did a child show.
Speaker BYeah.
Speaker AYou can't.
Speaker AYou can't have that type of profession.
Speaker BBut if Rubens, God bless his soul, were still alive, he would probably say something the effect of.
Speaker BI was playing a character.
Speaker BI'm allowed to be an adult and do adult things.
Speaker BClearly, society disagrees.
Speaker BOkay.
Speaker AI know.
Speaker BNo, but his character and blow was still exceptional.
Speaker ABest.
Speaker AOne of the best roles.
Speaker AAnd honestly, top three movie for me.
Speaker BTop three.
Speaker AYeah.
Speaker BIt's great.
Speaker BIt's a fantastic movie.
Speaker BIt's hard for me to argue.
Speaker AI mean.
Speaker AYeah.
Speaker AIll timed for you to Reference blow and the whole adult thing.
Speaker AI mean, come on, man.
Speaker AWhat are you doing here?
Speaker BWhat do you mean?
Speaker AWhat's going on?
Speaker BI was going to.
Speaker AYou could have named detective from Matilda.
Speaker AYou could have named anything else.
Speaker ABut you went.
Speaker AThat's what you went with.
Speaker BYeah, because I have a reason.
Speaker BOkay?
Speaker BBear with me, Matilda.
Speaker BFuck you.
Speaker BAll right, Reill, so remember, there was a word of the week on the show that anytime it was said, everybody on the show went that.
Speaker BThat word this week on this show is going to be the word incentive.
Speaker BOh, I like it.
Speaker BOkay, that's going to come up a lot.
Speaker BAll right, all right, all right, all right.
Speaker BEverybody listening is like, what the fuck?
Speaker BI haven't had caffeine yet.
Speaker BThis is just the salt kicking in.
Speaker BRajill, you sure you don't want some of this?
Speaker AI'm good, man.
Speaker BAll right.
Speaker AAll right.
Speaker AYeah.
Speaker AI'm sorry.
Speaker AThey can't be a sponsor, bro.
Speaker AI can't get down.
Speaker BElement is sensational.
Speaker AI can't.
Speaker BThey can sponsor me and not you.
Speaker AThat's fine.
Speaker AThat's what I'll call it.
Speaker AI'll take the direct deposit.
Speaker BAll right, so just to recap, here, they.
Speaker BThey talked about the new homes being built.
Speaker BThey said that it was larger than expected.
Speaker B20.5% in August compared to July.
Speaker BThey said that the home value went up to $413,500.
Speaker BAll right, we're going to go to Lance Lambert via X now and talk about 2024 Fannie Mae home price affordability.
Speaker BBecause I want to give people perspective.
Speaker BYou're telling me that you sold more new homes than the last three years.
Speaker BYou're telling me that home prices went up.
Speaker BDave Ramsey's like, I knew it.
Speaker BI knew it.
Speaker BI knew it.
Speaker BNo, you didn't.
Speaker BRight.
Speaker AOkay, well, it's also.
Speaker AIt's.
Speaker AIt's when you get two players as big as Lennar and Dr. Horton that can control the market.
Speaker ARight?
Speaker ABecause listen, they got.
Speaker AThey have construction going on nationwide.
Speaker BYeah.
Speaker ASo.
Speaker AAnd they can start picking and choosing based on whatever data they see and literally manipulate the data.
Speaker BAnd effectively, they did do that.
Speaker BSo if you recall, a month ago, the homebuilder survey came out, and the homebuilders reported to the survey about their confidence in the market.
Speaker AOkay?
Speaker BAnd they were all very, very low in confidence is the lowest point in several years in confidence.
Speaker BSo they knew they had two possible paths to go down.
Speaker ARight.
Speaker BThey're a publicly traded company.
Speaker BThey know their number is going to be, you know, reviewed by analysts, by people who are in the market.
Speaker BBut the average everyday consumer is gonna buy.
Speaker BThe headline.
Speaker AIt's true.
Speaker B90 people saw this article, said, oh my God, new home sales, 20 in August.
Speaker AHoney, you know, maybe we should start looking at some of these.
Speaker BWe gotta buy now.
Speaker BBecause if we don't buy now, Dave Rams is going to be right and we're going to be wrong.
Speaker BWe don't want to do that.
Speaker AThe other, the other thing too, that I don't think we mentioned yet.
Speaker AThese new home sales, this report is based off of signed contracts and not closed.
Speaker BThat's right.
Speaker ASo that, that's also.
Speaker AThat doesn't mean these people got to the finish line.
Speaker BThat's right.
Speaker BThat's right.
Speaker BThere's so many sexual jokes.
Speaker ASo many.
Speaker BWe're not going to do that though, because we're an adult show.
Speaker AYeah.
Speaker BWe're not going to incentivize it.
Speaker BHe gets it.
Speaker BAll right, so there's, here's the Monte Carlo, like, analysis.
Speaker BAccording to 2024, and I granted, this is a year old from, from Fannie Mae.
Speaker BIf US home prices spiked 60%, we return to pre pandemic.
Speaker BI'm sorry, US incomes spiked 60%, we would return to pre pandemic housing affordability levels.
Speaker BSo income would have to go up 60%.
Speaker AThat's that.
Speaker AGuess what's not going to happen?
Speaker BProbably not going to happen.
Speaker AI don't think employers are going to be like, you know what, I appreciate you sticking this through.
Speaker BOkay?
Speaker BIf U.S. home prices fell 38%, we returned to pre pandemic affordability.
Speaker AThe only way that happens.
Speaker BThat's a market crash, kids.
Speaker AThat's a market crash.
Speaker BListen, that's almost twice the level of a basic intro crash.
Speaker ARight?
Speaker AAnd for perspective, when we had the housing crash back in 2008, right.
Speaker AIt was because 2.9 million homes came on the market all at once, right?
Speaker AThat, that's what causes a crash.
Speaker AYeah.
Speaker ASo that's.
Speaker AUnless you know of something that's happening, right?
Speaker AWhere somehow every company out there is adopting AI and 2.9 million people are going to be losing their jobs.
Speaker BThey're hydrated.
Speaker AIt's time for the caffeine not to become dehydrated.
Speaker ASo let me tell you.
Speaker AWait, let's take a, a quick pause.
Speaker AI didn't know this.
Speaker ASo the reason why I want to cut back on the cat.
Speaker AI've been really trying to focus in the last like two weeks on diet, exercise, and sleep.
Speaker AAll right?
Speaker AMake minimal changes.
Speaker BOkay.
Speaker AWith sleep.
Speaker AI read a study.
Speaker AMaybe you know more about this.
Speaker ACorrect me If I'm wrong, if you.
Speaker AIf I have a caffeine drink of one of these 200 milligrams of caffeine at like 2pm by the time it's 10pm, I still have 50 milligrams of caffeine in my system, which is equivalent to a drinking a green tea before going to bed.
Speaker AI'm like, julie, okay over there.
Speaker BThat screens have been flashing at you for a while, brother.
Speaker AYeah, it's a X.
Speaker AIt keeps flashing.
Speaker AI can't open any of the.
Speaker BOh, you don't worry about it.
Speaker BI have all the stuff you need to reference in the show notes.
Speaker BScrew it.
Speaker BDon't worry about it.
Speaker BYeah.
Speaker ASo 50 milligrams of caffeine before going to bed.
Speaker AAnd it's been messing with my say I'm not sleeping well.
Speaker ASo, so.
Speaker AAnd so I cut that out the last week.
Speaker BThat's true, by the way.
Speaker BIt is accurate.
Speaker ASo I cut that out the last week.
Speaker ANo caffeine past noon.
Speaker AJust made a hard line.
Speaker AOkay.
Speaker ANothing past noon.
Speaker AWhich has been, I mean, difficult, honestly.
Speaker AThe caffeine doesn't even do anything to me anymore.
Speaker AIt's honestly just a for flavor, so.
Speaker ABut I've been sleeping so much better.
Speaker BOkay, great.
Speaker BGood for you.
Speaker BI mean, I usually.
Speaker BIt's my effect and people get them to sleep like that, but you know.
Speaker AYeah.
Speaker BYou know, put you to bed.
Speaker AYeah.
Speaker ABut it's quite the incentive.
Speaker BBut I totally agree.
Speaker BI think it's probably accurate for most people.
Speaker BI have always had, and maybe because I'm a large person, a very, very low resting heart rate.
Speaker AOh, okay.
Speaker BVery, very low.
Speaker AI don't actually don't know what my.
Speaker BResting heart rate is.
Speaker BSo I don't know about you, but I could drink two.
Speaker BI could drink 600mg caffeine and fall right asleep.
Speaker BI still.
Speaker BIt wouldn't affect like my energy levels like that.
Speaker ANo, I could too, but I'm not sleeping well.
Speaker AThat's my point.
Speaker ALike, I'm not.
Speaker AI'm like, I don't.
Speaker AWhen I wake up, I do not feel well rested after like seven hours.
Speaker BYou don't have like a tracker that tracks your sleep or anything?
Speaker ANo, I mean I have the.
Speaker AI have the bed that, that tracks it and it shows that like, I didn't have a high score.
Speaker BOh, that's a tracker, dude.
Speaker AOh, no, I thought you meant like people have been rocking those aura rings.
Speaker BYeah, I have an eight sleep.
Speaker BThe bed that didn't adjust to your temperature.
Speaker AOh.
Speaker BI routinely get like, it this Is gonna sound terrible.
Speaker AI want one of those.
Speaker BThey are sensational.
Speaker BYeah.
Speaker AYou got the COVID one, or it's a cover over the mattress or the whole mattress?
Speaker BNo, the.
Speaker BSo the, the mattress is basically just the COVID over a.
Speaker BA foam mattress.
Speaker AYeah, yeah, yeah.
Speaker BWe already had like a brand new foam mattress, so we just bought the COVID got it, and it went out like we had the.
Speaker BWe had the original, I think the third model.
Speaker BWhen it, when it came out.
Speaker BWhen it came out.
Speaker BAnd then Adam actually told me to get it, which is part of the reason why I got it.
Speaker BAnd then it broke for a while, like a year ago.
Speaker BAnd it was the most uncomfortable sleep I'd had in years.
Speaker AOh, you become reliant on it.
Speaker BNot relying on it, it's just you prefer it, like, you know, you really enjoy getting into a bed that's the temperature that you sleep best at.
Speaker BAnd then it adjusts throughout the night.
Speaker BIt even tells you if you sleep on its own.
Speaker BYeah, yeah.
Speaker BSo what, it has like basically three.
Speaker BIt knows the level that whether you're in art, REM sleep, deep sleep, or, you know, kind of your surface level, light sleep.
Speaker BIt knows which one you're in, and it knows how your body responds, temperature wise, during those sleep cycles.
Speaker AYou could have yours, and your wife's gonna be completely different.
Speaker BJoanna's side is super hot.
Speaker BIt's like roasting over there.
Speaker AIt's crazy, right?
Speaker BLike on my side.
Speaker ACrazy how some people.
Speaker ABut then the studies are out there where like room temperature should be like 65 degrees.
Speaker BYeah, I don't like all the studies.
Speaker BOurs is typically about 70.
Speaker B70 to 70.
Speaker A70 for us is normally where it's at.
Speaker BIt's too cold.
Speaker B70 is too cold.
Speaker A70 is too cold.
Speaker BToo cold.
Speaker ABut yeah.
Speaker AYeah, I like having to cover myself.
Speaker BYeah, I do too.
Speaker BI like to cover you too.
Speaker BYeah, no, I get it.
Speaker BBut honestly, one of the best investments ever made from a tech perspective.
Speaker BI mean, the Apple watch, I'm dependent on it.
Speaker BI like it.
Speaker AYeah.
Speaker BBut could not function without a night sleep.
Speaker BYeah, it's, it's, it's.
Speaker BIt's a real deal holy field.
Speaker BBut to.
Speaker BTo get back to the whole thing.
Speaker BLike, I, I have.
Speaker BI drink energy drinks all the time.
Speaker BI'm routinely above like 85 to 90.
Speaker BLike, that's my sleep pattern these days.
Speaker AOkay, so you're good.
Speaker BYou're Gucci for me.
Speaker BI mean, I also sleep less hours than most people, so.
Speaker BBut for me, I sleep well.
Speaker BRight.
Speaker AYeah.
Speaker BRight.
Speaker BSo there is one other way that home prices can become affordable again.
Speaker BHow massive mortgage rates fell 4.15% from call it 6.5% today to about 2.23.
Speaker AThen we return to pre pandemic levels of affordability.
Speaker AAnd that's every realtor suggestion on how to get back to where we were.
Speaker BNot only realtors, but real estate professionals, mortgage loan officers, the president of the United States of the United States Home Builders Association.
Speaker AYeah, yeah.
Speaker BReal estate owners in general.
Speaker BYou know, how do I solve the affordability problem?
Speaker BI know we'll lower rates because of value stays high.
Speaker BThen I'm worth more money.
Speaker BYeah, you're worth more money.
Speaker BMortgage loan officers get everybody's happy, Everybody gets paid.
Speaker BYahtzee.
Speaker BThey're incentivized.
Speaker BNot really feeling the enthusiasm from YouTube tonight.
Speaker AThis is going to, this is just going to be going all episode long.
Speaker BWe have a whole, you know, section dedicated to this.
Speaker BSo regil the next chart.
Speaker BThere are 35% more home sellers than buyer.
Speaker BWait a minute.
Speaker BThat's a problem.
Speaker BSo in August there were an estimated 35.2% more home sellers than buyers in the U.S. housing market.
Speaker BThat is more than 33%.
Speaker BThat's more than a third.
Speaker BOkay.
Speaker AYeah.
Speaker BSo with high percentages seen in prior months makes for strongest buyers summer on record per Redfin.
Speaker BNot the association of Home Builders, not the national association of Realtors.
Speaker BOkay.
Speaker BThis is a non lobbyed association.
Speaker BThis is just somebody who looks at the data.
Speaker AYeah, that's right.
Speaker BIn the mortgage database.
Speaker BAnd despite the fact they have a real estate slant, Redfin we've always felt provides us good data.
Speaker AThey do provide good data.
Speaker BOkay, well they're saying there are 35% more sellers than buyers Right now.
Speaker AI'm seeing just driving around like driving the kids to basketball practice, soccer practices and sometimes they're the, they're in these communities and you see homes that are listed for sale.
Speaker AI'm like, man, that home is still listed for sale.
Speaker BOkay, this is not a plug.
Speaker BI'm not plugging right now, but I'm plugging.
Speaker AI take you as a guy that plugs.
Speaker BI'm plugging.
Speaker AI'm so I take you as a plug.
Speaker BRight?
Speaker BButt plugger.
Speaker AYou saw where I was going.
Speaker AYou could have left it alone.
Speaker BI know.
Speaker BIt could have been just between you and I, unemployed.
Speaker BI'm taking all the layers.
Speaker BSo this is a true story.
Speaker BThis is not sarcasm.
Speaker BWe have a mobile app for Black Crown Realty, right.
Speaker BThe franchise uses it.
Speaker BI don't really have much engagement with, with the retail side of the business, but it's there.
Speaker BRight in that.
Speaker BLiterally four years ago, I put a property search in my area with certain criteria of number of bathrooms, number of bedrooms, and home prices that I was willing to go up to.
Speaker AOkay.
Speaker BI haven't gotten a single fucking alert in years.
Speaker AWow.
Speaker BI had forgotten about it.
Speaker BLiterally this week.
Speaker BI started getting alerts again because home prices in my area fell back into that band.
Speaker ANo way.
Speaker BAnd I started getting alerts from my own app.
Speaker BAnd I was like, what the is it?
Speaker AI remember you telling me your.
Speaker AYour area was one of the crazier area areas in South OC where at at its peak, people were paying over a hundred grand above asking price.
Speaker BDude, I lost out on a property we were bidding.
Speaker BI think we were bidding at 2, 3.
Speaker BI think it sold for 2 8.
Speaker BAnd we were bidding at 2, 3.
Speaker BThat was already 200 grand over.
Speaker AJeez.
Speaker BAnd I remember looking at Joanna, my wife, going like, all right, I'm.
Speaker BI'm not chasing up buy literally Ferraris.
Speaker AYeah, yeah, yeah.
Speaker BExtra Ferrari for you.
Speaker BNo problem, sir.
Speaker BHere you go.
Speaker BCan I have your house now, bro?
Speaker AMy favorite.
Speaker AI. I see on.
Speaker AOn Instagram these Realtors that go around showing their listings or showing homes right in areas, and one that always pops up is Irvine.
Speaker AAnd there's like $7 million home in Irvine.
Speaker AI'm like, $7 million.
Speaker AYeah, there are.
Speaker AI mean, this house in San Antonio is like 600 grand.
Speaker BYeah, it's hard.
Speaker BIt's hard to.
Speaker BSame exact home sometimes.
Speaker BBetter.
Speaker AYeah, yeah.
Speaker BGet a way bigger garage in Texas, you know, get way more land in Texas.
Speaker ABut I mean, I know you deal with a lot of weather stuff over there, and you're on.
Speaker BYou're gonna place a roof with.
Speaker AHell, you're on your own power grid.
Speaker BAnd I don't mind that, though.
Speaker AYou don't mind that?
Speaker BI don't mind being on my own grid if I had to.
Speaker ANo, I mean, I mean on Texas's own grid.
Speaker AI mean, if that.
Speaker AWe saw what happened five years ago.
Speaker BFull solar.
Speaker AOh, yeah.
Speaker BFull Tesla solar panels in the roof, Tesla battery in the garage.
Speaker AOh, yeah.
Speaker AAt that point.
Speaker AYeah, you save so much money, you might as well.
Speaker BI'm that guy with lights on when all y' all got lights off, just laughing, smoking a cigar.
Speaker AYeah, dude, there was.
Speaker AThere was a study that came out about these data centers that have been popping up everywhere, and they usually target these lower income rural areas.
Speaker BBetter energy costs.
Speaker ABetter energy costs for them.
Speaker ABut it literally screws all the people living there.
Speaker AAnd electricity bills apparently are through the roof around the nation because of these data centers.
Speaker BYeah.
Speaker AAnd then guess what's.
Speaker AAnd, and here's the, here's the, the crazy part.
Speaker AThe, the county commissioners that serve the.
Speaker AServe for the county that almost are.
Speaker ACan also serve legally as lobbyists to get these data centers in and then take a.
Speaker ATake a commission or take a paycheck from these companies, these big, you know, anyone that's producing all this AI content.
Speaker ABut it's like, dude, you just got to, you got to feel for these people living in those in those counties.
Speaker BYep.
Speaker BGoogle meta a lot.
Speaker BChat GPT.
Speaker AAnd what's going to happen?
Speaker AOkay, let's just say there's one in Texas and they're on their own power grid.
Speaker AWhat's going to happen when the power grid goes down next time?
Speaker BPower grid.
Speaker BThese companies, these companies are trying to get nuclear power.
Speaker BI know.
Speaker BThey're literally trying to build nuclear power plants.
Speaker AYeah, they have to.
Speaker BThat is not sarcasm.
Speaker ANo, I know.
Speaker BThey're literally trying to build nuclear power plants because they know that's how much power it'll take to put.
Speaker BThis is the part in Terminator where the machines take over.
Speaker AGetting close, man.
Speaker BIf they have their own power supply and our power goes out, guess.
Speaker AGuess whose power is going to stay on.
Speaker AYeah.
Speaker BChat GPT.
Speaker AYeah, that's it.
Speaker AI'm out of luck.
Speaker BYeah.
Speaker BSend note.
Speaker BKill humans.
Speaker BYou know what I mean?
Speaker AYou are the weakest link.
Speaker BGoodbye.
Speaker BThese guys are taking our power.
Speaker BKill humans.
Speaker BOh, that's the, that's the struggle, right?
Speaker AIf you're messing with their grid, that's scary, man.
Speaker BLike, that's the fight.
Speaker BIt's not going to be gold.
Speaker AYeah, I saw one.
Speaker AI saw a video of one of those.
Speaker ALike, it wasn't Tesla robot, but it was one built just like it and it had tripped and fell on the ground and the way it bounced up was like from like a vintage, like, karate movie where, like, oh, I saw.
Speaker BThat do like the back.
Speaker AYeah.
Speaker AI was like, what the hell?
Speaker BYeah.
Speaker AI wouldn't be able to defend myself.
Speaker APeace.
Speaker AI'm out.
Speaker BIf I saw a robot do that.
Speaker ACan't even shoot it.
Speaker BI'm like, bro, you can't even shoot it.
Speaker BI've seen I am robot or I am.
Speaker AI'm legend.
Speaker BI'm legend.
Speaker BNo, they're on the robots.
Speaker AOh.
Speaker AOh, yeah.
Speaker AIrobot.
Speaker BIrobot.
Speaker BYeah.
Speaker AYeah.
Speaker BI purposely try to forget Will Smith movies now.
Speaker AYeah.
Speaker ABetter human being.
Speaker BHave you seen this beef between Jada Pinkett Smith and the kids and Chris Rock?
Speaker BThey're now going back and forth in the text messages and the Twitter messages.
Speaker AYeah, yeah, yeah, bro.
Speaker BThey're getting nasty.
Speaker AAnd Chris Rock kind of came in with the hammer with the entanglements.
Speaker BHe keeps going on and on about, like, we all know you love Tupac.
Speaker BWhy you shaved your head?
Speaker BYeah, we all know you don't really have alopecia.
Speaker ALike, God, let it go, man.
Speaker BLet it go, bro.
Speaker ALet it.
Speaker AI know you.
Speaker BYou.
Speaker AYou.
Speaker AYou got your tour.
Speaker AYou made your money.
Speaker ATake the L. No, he won.
Speaker AHe won, bro.
Speaker AHe won.
Speaker BHe's losing now.
Speaker AYou think so?
Speaker AOh, yeah, because his kids got involved.
Speaker BYou're clapping back now at the dude's kids.
Speaker AWell, Jada can't be coming.
Speaker AComing at.
Speaker AI mean, come on.
Speaker BIf someone slaps my dad, I'm not going to like that person.
Speaker BOkay, what Chris Rock think is going to happen?
Speaker BYeah, you think Jada.
Speaker BJada was gonna be like, you're right, Chris.
Speaker BMy dad was out of line.
Speaker BThat's just not gonna happen.
Speaker ANot gonna happen.
Speaker AYeah, I mean, it's just.
Speaker BDon't be a narcissist.
Speaker BThat's all I'm saying.
Speaker BI mean, the kid does have a weird fashion sense.
Speaker BAll right, there's a chart here for the 35% more sellers and buyers that you pulled up, which I think is meaningful.
Speaker BOkay.
Speaker BBasically what they're saying is this is a buyer's market because there is more inventory for the buyers, because there are more sellers than buyers.
Speaker BThat is going to be a reoccurring theme as you get in the next article.
Speaker BAlso from Lance Lambert via X, the gross margin of Lennar.
Speaker BOkay.
Speaker BThis is where we get into the nasty little details.
Speaker BAll right, the chart at the bottom, this.
Speaker BVirgil, if you want to pull it up.
Speaker BThank you very much.
Speaker BI'm going to throw out some facts and as it relates to Lennar's gross margin, and then we're going to talk about why.
Speaker BAll right, the gross margin of Lennar, a giant homebuilder, ranked number 129 on the Fortune 100 of all companies.
Speaker BOkay.
Speaker BThat's how big they are.
Speaker BJust hit a 16 year low, so their profit margins are at a 16 year low.
Speaker BTake 2025 minus 16.
Speaker BYou get 2009, which some would argue was the height of the great financial crisis.
Speaker AYep.
Speaker AYeah.
Speaker BAll this reo, the real estate owned from short sold properties, properties that were sold less than the mortgages that were owed on them, flooded the market.
Speaker BAnd because there was this flood of millions, as you said, two plus million of homes on the market, it Dropped values down.
Speaker BThey are at the lowest they've been on profit margin since that time.
Speaker BThat is telling.
Speaker AThat's very telling.
Speaker BOkay, so let's get into why.
Speaker BIn order to maintain sales in this weaker housing market environment, Lennar spent an average, an average of 14.3% of the final sales price on incentives in Q3 of 2025.
Speaker BOkay.
Speaker BSo the price they're telling you at average out at $413,500 for a new home.
Speaker BThat is the top line number before incentives, which means they have discounted these properties 14% below that, which is about 25, like $30,000.
Speaker AIsh.
Speaker AYeah.
Speaker BRight.
Speaker BSo that being said, okay, if you were to subtract that, you get a very different number.
Speaker BSo Lennar's sale incentives rate you guys aren't keeping up is.
Speaker BThat is at its highest level since 2009, the last time they offered these types of reasons to buy.
Speaker BThere you go.
Speaker AOkay.
Speaker BLennar's gross margin is at its lowest level since that time.
Speaker BBecause we can do math.
Speaker BLennar's average selling price net of these incentives is down 22% from its 2022 peak.
Speaker BThe chart here tells the story, right?
Speaker BThe historic weak level was 7.8% in Q3 of 2020.
Speaker BSorry, 2009.
Speaker BAnd we are vastly approaching that again.
Speaker BBut we are at the second lowest level at 17.5 down from from the number.
Speaker BThe only reason why it's not as low as the historical low level, if you're looking at this chart on Spotify and YouTube, is because it started from a higher starting point and came downward.
Speaker BYeah, that's the only reason.
Speaker BSo we know that Lennar had massive discounts, effectively from their price because they had a homebuilders survey.
Speaker BThey all expressed negative sentiment.
Speaker BThey had two choices.
Speaker BYou can either sell less homes and have the market think you're weak, or you can sell more homes, take less profit in either way, you're going to make less money.
Speaker BYou sell less homes, you make less money, or you sell more homes for less profit and you make less money.
Speaker BWhat's the better result?
Speaker BYou go with the one that gives you a better headline, which is the one you saw on CNBC to start the show.
Speaker B12 or 20% increase.
Speaker BIt's amazing.
Speaker AYeah.
Speaker AI mean, when you get, when you get a headline like that, what does this suggest?
Speaker ARight?
Speaker AThere's more building activity, more potential job creations.
Speaker ARight.
Speaker AAnd there is.
Speaker AThere's better consumer confidence in the market with what's to come, and people aren't as afraid.
Speaker AWhereas if you Get a slowdown number.
Speaker AObviously, we all know what that hints at.
Speaker AEconomic slowdown.
Speaker ABut it goes to show you how.
Speaker BPolitically navigated this is.
Speaker ABut that.
Speaker AYeah, and it's also like, come on, cnbc, you know better.
Speaker AWhy are you trying, like, it's almost like they're in on it.
Speaker BTo their credit, they did.
Speaker BThere was a small, like, one sentence statement about incentives.
Speaker AAh, but they know the headline, bro.
Speaker BGotta give me more.
Speaker ABut that stuff makes me upset, man.
Speaker AIt makes me upset.
Speaker ABecause they know.
Speaker ABecause they know people just rely on headlines.
Speaker BWell, let's talk about last Friday, shall we?
Speaker ALet's do it.
Speaker BLet's pull up the next chart.
Speaker BRegil.
Speaker BIt's at the bottom of the next section.
Speaker BThis coming from Nick.
Speaker BNick Gurley, Fees from Revenger via X. Lennar is showing you what has to happen in the housing market to drive sales.
Speaker BI agree with that.
Speaker BLet's take a look at this chart and go ahead and put that bad boy in the full screen.
Speaker BThere you go.
Speaker BOh, it's so big.
Speaker AIt's so big.
Speaker BAll right.
Speaker BThis chart, I think, is very indicative.
Speaker BIf you're not watching Spotify or YouTube, you really owe it to yourself to at least go to our channels, look at this chart.
Speaker BBecause it's telling.
Speaker AAnd so there's something about hitting the like button that actually makes the visuals better.
Speaker AI don't know what it is.
Speaker AYeah, I don't know what it is.
Speaker AYeah, I don't know what it is.
Speaker AAnd.
Speaker AAnd then it becomes even better.
Speaker ASome.
Speaker ASomehow it gets better.
Speaker ALike from 4k maybe to 5k.
Speaker AI don't know.
Speaker AThat's what they say.
Speaker AIf you share.
Speaker AIf you share it with a friend.
Speaker BOh, really?
Speaker AYeah, that's how.
Speaker AThat's what happens.
Speaker BI think it's like a dopamine response.
Speaker AThat's.
Speaker AI think that's it biologically, you know.
Speaker BSo this is what I call the crocodile mouth.
Speaker BWhen one thing is going up high, is that going.
Speaker BIt looks like it's going to eat something.
Speaker BWhat it's eating is the lies.
Speaker AThe lies.
Speaker BSo Lennar is showing you what has to happen.
Speaker BRight.
Speaker BOkay.
Speaker BSo they've cut 22%.
Speaker BThat's how much their prices are down 22%.
Speaker BBut they're not telling you to market that because they're hiding it vis a vis these.
Speaker BThese motivating factors to get you to buy.
Speaker BI had to deal with all that to get you not to scream.
Speaker BOkay, these are now below pre pandemic pricing.
Speaker BIf you price that in the result, sales orders have spiked.
Speaker ARight.
Speaker BSo the Media picks up that spiking, but doesn't look deeper.
Speaker BLennar's margins have compressed to 17.5% as a result of the price cuts.
Speaker BBut that's just how it goes in a housing recession, okay?
Speaker BTo move inventory and sell homes, you need to accept less.
Speaker BThe question is how they chose to accept less.
Speaker BAnd tell the public that on an earnings call, existing home sellers would be wise to take note.
Speaker BAnd tomorrow existing home sales come out.
Speaker BAnd existing home sales can't be manipulated quite the same way.
Speaker BNow, this is where I give a big ass asterisk.
Speaker AOkay?
Speaker AThe biggest asterix.
Speaker BYeah, I never see that word.
Speaker BWell, yeah, I can't do these impressions anymore where I do impressions of person that you're trying to make an impression.
Speaker AOf because I said.
Speaker AI said a word.
Speaker BI say off his political allegiance.
Speaker BAnd I am not a political allegiant.
Speaker AYeah.
Speaker BDid you break the TV original?
Speaker BYou broke the tv?
Speaker BOh, no.
Speaker BOh, you know what it did?
Speaker BIt went back in that damn scan thing mode.
Speaker BIs it showing the scan lines on the screen again?
Speaker BIt is.
Speaker AIt's not.
Speaker AWe're good.
Speaker AWe're Gucci.
Speaker AWe're Gucci.
Speaker BAll right.
Speaker AOh, yep, There you go.
Speaker BDamn it.
Speaker BI know this technology.
Speaker BI knows it.
Speaker BThat's okay.
Speaker BBecause nobody cares about our show anyway, right?
Speaker AStop it.
Speaker AThey do care.
Speaker AThey want a wives episode.
Speaker AThat's what they need to watch.
Speaker BMaybe your wife.
Speaker ANo, no, I got.
Speaker AI got a message today.
Speaker AToday from multiple people.
Speaker BYour wife went on the live stream and pitched the wife show.
Speaker ANo, no.
Speaker AWe talked about on the last episode.
Speaker BYou're backing me into a corner, bro.
Speaker AYou're like, abort mission, bro.
Speaker BNow ain't the time.
Speaker ARight.
Speaker BWould you.
Speaker AYeah.
Speaker BIt'S getting hot in here.
Speaker BAll right, so almost a quarter of all single family housing starts nationally are tied to just two home builders.
Speaker BNext chart, Regill.
Speaker BAll right, these two home builders, as we talked about at the top of the show, Dr. Horton.
Speaker BD, H, I.
Speaker BIf you follow the stock market, Lennar, Len.
Speaker BThose two account for about 25% of the market.
Speaker BD. Dr. Horton at 12.3% and Lennar at 11.8%.
Speaker AIs it 11.6?
Speaker BI can't read.
Speaker BWho cares?
Speaker BEarnings last Friday revealed that Lennar is slowing the starts like we.
Speaker BWe've already kind of uncovered here, which alone has implications for the entire sector, but also trickles into other manufacturers and builders.
Speaker BBut it's not just there.
Speaker BWait a minute, Chris.
Speaker BWe never get stock advice in the show.
Speaker BAnd you're kind of a dirty son.
Speaker BOf a bitch because you promised us when you left the the bank that you would start doing that.
Speaker BOkay, let's do this.
Speaker AYou did kind of promise that.
Speaker BI did kind of promise that.
Speaker BLet's do this now.
Speaker BOkay, look, if you're a home builder and you're slowing starts, meaning you're slowing the building of new homes because you know this is a problem and you're going to make less money, what do you do?
Speaker BYou build less homes.
Speaker BIf you're building less homes, you use less contractors.
Speaker BUse less contractors.
Speaker BLess people are buying wood, buying steel, buying building materials, all the materials.
Speaker ARight.
Speaker BThere is a trickle down effect.
Speaker BIf you're going to short stock, I would probably look at some of those stock.
Speaker BAnd those companies, major builders, for example, where are they going to go?
Speaker BTheir profits are probably going to continue to go down because what do we know after that?
Speaker BWhat happened after the last rate cut?
Speaker BRates went up.
Speaker ARight.
Speaker BAbout a percent of a point.
Speaker BBecause the fed funds rate really affects consumer borrowing.
Speaker BNot really on mortgage rates.
Speaker AYeah.
Speaker BAt least directly anyway.
Speaker BSo you can expect mortgage rates to climb or stay where they are incrementally over the next couple months, which means home prices, if they're going to move, have to come down.
Speaker AOh, yeah.
Speaker ASo even with the two projected rate cuts coming by the end of the year, you still expect rates to stay in the mid sixes.
Speaker BI'll put it to you this way.
Speaker BIf you got a mortgage rate today at 6%, I feel like in about a year from now, six months from now, by June of next year, I feel like you're gonna be going, you know what?
Speaker BWe made a good decision.
Speaker AYeah.
Speaker BYeah.
Speaker AWow.
Speaker BYeah.
Speaker BThat's what, that's what I pretty.
Speaker AThat's pretty telling because you can, you.
Speaker BCan do the narrative, the spin, the rhetoric.
Speaker BThe market has to believe in the long end of the curve, the 10 year end of the curve.
Speaker BThey have to believe in the long term success cyc of the economy.
Speaker AYeah.
Speaker BAnd right now when you tune in the CNBC or any of these market watch, you know, commentary shows, everybody's throwing around a word and it's not our buzzword, it's the word frothy.
Speaker BEverything feels a little frothy.
Speaker BRight.
Speaker BYou know when you get that foam at the top of your latte.
Speaker AYeah.
Speaker BAnd you're like, oh, that's so frothy.
Speaker BIt's so nice.
Speaker BBut you're really not getting the full latte because they fill that up with like 18 of foam.
Speaker AThey'd be cheating a little bit.
Speaker BYou're not getting the full cup.
Speaker BRight?
Speaker AYeah.
Speaker BWell, the market right now is a bit frothy and you're not getting the full cup.
Speaker BIt looks a whole lot more full than it is.
Speaker AThat's true.
Speaker AThat's, that's a good point.
Speaker AYeah.
Speaker BThe analogy master tonight.
Speaker BI'm out here.
Speaker AYou're, you're on it.
Speaker AYeah.
Speaker AI mean just a tip.
Speaker BJust, just a tip of the cup.
Speaker AI know.
Speaker AI think the existing home sales report.
Speaker ASo for everyone, that's the, the, the homes that have already been built and have been lived in for some time.
Speaker ARight.
Speaker AThat's what that report is.
Speaker AAnd that makes up somewhere around 85% of, of all the sales activity.
Speaker BYeah.
Speaker ASo before bigger slice of the pie.
Speaker BI wanted to make sure the asterisk that I was going to add here was that both existing home sales and new home sales do have a tendency to be revised down just the way jobs do.
Speaker BSo these numbers can and most likely will change in the coming months.
Speaker AOkay.
Speaker ABut, but I do know existing sales is they report on closed deals.
Speaker BYes.
Speaker BThat, that has a very, very low change probability.
Speaker ARight.
Speaker BNew home sales does because as you pointed out earlier.
Speaker ARight.
Speaker BThese aren't transactions that have closed.
Speaker BThese are just initiated.
Speaker ARight.
Speaker ASo like shifts in the report that comes out tomorrow, the existing home sales report, that shows it reflects more of like consumer confidence and it shows you really what people are doing.
Speaker AAre they moving like out of the state?
Speaker ARight.
Speaker AIt's very telling.
Speaker AOn Exodus.
Speaker ARight.
Speaker AI think we see a lot of people from California leaving, going to other states because it just becomes too expensive to live here.
Speaker ARight.
Speaker AAlso it shows if families are downsizing.
Speaker ARight.
Speaker ASo that's, that report is much more telling because it gives you a bigger piece of the pie as far as data goes.
Speaker AYou don't think so?
Speaker BNo, I think it is.
Speaker BI, I, I, I've always found existing home sales be much more valuable.
Speaker BI was just as you say that I'm sitting here thinking to myself, I do expect those numbers to be mildly decent.
Speaker BI don't think there's anything like cataclysmic in there.
Speaker BBad.
Speaker BBut I think that it's pretty obvious to me and is conspiratorial tinfoil hats on all that stuff that these numbers can be manipulated for ulterior reasons because they are revised later on.
Speaker BAnd just like the job numbers.
Speaker BUnless it was like the last two, two big ass revisions.
Speaker BYou never hear about the revisions.
Speaker AYeah, exactly.
Speaker BSo these, these guys can get out of headlines.
Speaker BRight.
Speaker BThey can push it out there and then deal with the Ramifications of this continues later on, but they can try to control the narrative.
Speaker BPerception becomes reality.
Speaker ABut what's good for the listeners and what they should take away from it really is look, like you said, at what point in history have, you know, newer homes been.
Speaker ABecome more affordable than existing homes?
Speaker ARight.
Speaker ASo you owe yourself a favor.
Speaker AIf you are in the market and you're looking to buy a home for, you know, your family's utility purpose, then go out and see what type of incentives they're offering.
Speaker ASee what type.
Speaker BI mean, you never, you're not participating, you know, you're doing over there.
Speaker AYou never know.
Speaker AAnd I.
Speaker AOne, one of the, one of those factors that they do offer.
Speaker AI'm trying to refrain from the word.
Speaker AOne of the factors that they, that they may push on you because they do have their own mortgage ARM is.
Speaker ANo pun intended, ARM loans.
Speaker ARight.
Speaker BAdjustable rate mortgages.
Speaker AYeah.
Speaker AAnd they, they might push that on you because they, they can control their own finances.
Speaker BAre seeing more adjustable rate mortgages.
Speaker B3, 5 and 7 year fixed.
Speaker AI mean, that's scary given, given what you said.
Speaker ARight.
Speaker ALike if you were to get a, a 6% rate today and you would be happy six months from now.
Speaker AYes.
Speaker AThat doesn't mean it'll be that three years from now.
Speaker ABut you don't know.
Speaker AWe don't know what it's going to look like three years from now.
Speaker BNo, you don't.
Speaker BAnd just like this is.
Speaker BI wouldn't gamble.
Speaker AI wouldn't gamble.
Speaker BYou shouldn't gamble where you live.
Speaker BBut this is PSL season, Right?
Speaker BWe're Jill, you and I. Yeah.
Speaker BBoth aficionados.
Speaker BWe know the game.
Speaker AI ain't about it, bro.
Speaker BSome of us are saltier than others.
Speaker ANo, not that salty.
Speaker ANot element.
Speaker ANot element salty.
Speaker ABut yeah.
Speaker BBut there's another season that is upon us.
Speaker ASeason?
Speaker AYeah, Halloween season.
Speaker AGot your outfit.
Speaker BI don't do Halloween.
Speaker AGingerbread for the boy.
Speaker AYou don't do it?
Speaker BNo, I do for the boy.
Speaker AGingerbread latte season.
Speaker AGinger.
Speaker AGingerbread.
Speaker AHe got, he was hopping while he said it.
Speaker BGot a whole coffee page that he's producing.
Speaker AOh, we gotta pimp that out.
Speaker BYeah.
Speaker BWhat's the, what's the handle on Instagram?
Speaker AIt's called OC Coffee Tour.
Speaker AThat'd be 500.
Speaker AThank you very much.
Speaker B550 actually.
Speaker AYeah, go ahead.
Speaker AThat's the plug.
Speaker BBecause you have another one as well, right?
Speaker AYeah, the Boba one.
Speaker ARight.
Speaker AI have the OC Boba tour also.
Speaker BSo you're just drinking fluids all day long.
Speaker AHe's on that fluid diet.
Speaker BI wonder why you got migraines.
Speaker BSugar on sugar.
Speaker ATapioca, bro.
Speaker AMan.
Speaker BYeah.
Speaker BSo when do you eat?
Speaker AYeah, I'd say shots for that.
Speaker BSpeaking.
Speaker BSpeaking of which, what's, what's this week's weight?
Speaker ARight now it's at.
Speaker AI think it was like 217.
Speaker ASo.
Speaker BOkay.
Speaker ADown still are you pretty consistent with measuring every day at the same time?
Speaker AFasted in the morning.
Speaker AYeah.
Speaker AUsually after a good poop, man.
Speaker AYou know.
Speaker AOh, you got to make sure you got to get that.
Speaker BEvacuate your bowels.
Speaker BOh yeah, yeah.
Speaker BSee I'm science based.
Speaker AClean start.
Speaker AYeah.
Speaker BEvacuate your bowels.
Speaker BMine doesn't work until it's properly caffeinated.
Speaker AI've also been doing some weight training also.
Speaker BSo there he is.
Speaker AI can feel the, the muscles being rebuilt.
Speaker AOh, I feel the muscles.
Speaker AHe says, yeah.
Speaker BSo some of that's probably just water weight and, and muscle mass being added back in.
Speaker ASo.
Speaker BYeah, you're probably, you're probably still leaning out.
Speaker BYou know, don't let the one pound discourage you.
Speaker AOh no, it's better than nothing.
Speaker AAverage.
Speaker AAverage it out for the week.
Speaker ARight?
Speaker AThat's, that's the, that's the trick.
Speaker ADon't get hung up on a day.
Speaker BYeah, I used to only do it once a week.
Speaker BYeah, I'd only go on the scale like once a week, whenever really.
Speaker AOh.
Speaker AOr measure every day and just take the average for the week.
Speaker BI used to do that.
Speaker BBut it gives like excessive compulsive.
Speaker BLike there were some days I'd waking, I'd wake up and be like, damn it, I'm two pounds higher.
Speaker AYeah.
Speaker AWhat did I eat yesterday is that.
Speaker BI'm still emotional about it.
Speaker AThat payway salad.
Speaker BYeah, Peiway salad was the best until I realized that a thousand milligrams of sugar.
Speaker BBastards.
Speaker BAll right, so it's also M A season.
Speaker BThat's the season that's upon us.
Speaker AM and A season.
Speaker BYeah.
Speaker BI woke up.
Speaker AWhat makes this season?
Speaker AWhat makes it this, this, this time of year?
Speaker AWhat makes it M and A season?
Speaker BIt's not always this time of year.
Speaker BI'm just being hyperbole driven right about now.
Speaker BBut there I thought M and A was going to pick up about a year ago.
Speaker BAnd then private equity is, is all over the news.
Speaker BIf you've been listening the finance space, you've heard a lot about private equity.
Speaker BSo much so that every asshole influencer on media is like, hey Saeed, let me tell you how to make some money.
Speaker BYou should buy some businesses.
Speaker BYou know, businesses make a Lot of money.
Speaker BYou should buy, like, a blue collar car wash. You should buy a business.
Speaker BAlex Hermosi, 1000 business.
Speaker BKris Krohn wants 5000 businesses.
Speaker AYou know Cody Sanchez?
Speaker AYeah, she knows how to run every business, apparently.
Speaker BShe knows.
Speaker AOh, yeah.
Speaker BI worked as an intern for Morgan Stanley for, like, five minutes, so I know everything about finance.
Speaker BLet me tell you how to get rich.
Speaker AYeah, yeah.
Speaker BLet me tell you about the business.
Speaker BLook, I'm really good and articulate, so I can say all sorts of smart things.
Speaker BSo clearly, I know how to tell you how to big a business and make money.
Speaker ARight.
Speaker AJust follow me.
Speaker BJust follow me.
Speaker AYeah.
Speaker ABuy my book.
Speaker BYeah.
Speaker BI'm gonna go on Stephen's show and do a roundtable.
Speaker BAlex Hermosi.
Speaker BI was like, what the.
Speaker ASo where's your invite, bro?
Speaker BYeah, I know, right?
Speaker BBecause they don't.
Speaker BYou don't want me at that table.
Speaker BYeah.
Speaker BIt's like all y' all con artists a little controversial.
Speaker BYeah, it would be a bad.
Speaker BIt'd be bad look for everybody.
Speaker AYeah.
Speaker BYou're a con.
Speaker BYou.
Speaker AWe gotta get you.
Speaker AWe gotta find a way to get you on there.
Speaker ALike a Borat style.
Speaker ALike, just change your whole outfit.
Speaker BMy name is Christopher Robini.
Speaker AChristopher Robini.
Speaker BI'm an economist.
Speaker BI am from Ukraine.
Speaker AYeah.
Speaker BI like to make you rich.
Speaker AWe could joke like this because half of you is from that part of the world.
Speaker BYeah, the best half.
Speaker AOh, the best half.
Speaker AThere you go.
Speaker AOkay.
Speaker AThe cultured half.
Speaker AIs that what you.
Speaker AWhat you would say?
Speaker BI. I like who.
Speaker BWhen I was a kid, you grow up and you're, like, mixed.
Speaker BYou don't know what you are and stuff like that.
Speaker BI love.
Speaker AYou're figuring it out.
Speaker BYeah.
Speaker BThe point where you realize, like, it's okay to have like, four or five different ways to.
Speaker BYou know, when you're brought up, like, one way culturally, you kind of learn one way.
Speaker BWhen you're brought up like a mom who's mixed and a dad who's essentially mixed and, like, you learn all these different cultures, you get so much more exposure to the world and different people.
Speaker AIt's cool.
Speaker AIs that how you took it initially or were you confused at first?
Speaker ANo, because, like, why, why.
Speaker AWhy are these people like this and these people like this?
Speaker ALike, this side of my family does it this way and this side of the family doesn't.
Speaker BNo, I mean, I always kind of got that.
Speaker BI guess what was lost on me was, like, the esoteric difference between my mom is not.
Speaker BYou look at my mom, you're like, oh, she's white.
Speaker BYou look at my dad, you go, oh, he's Iranian.
Speaker BBut it's more complex than that.
Speaker BLike, my dad's not fully Iranian, and most Iranians aren't fully Iranian.
Speaker BThey're usually a Molotov cocktail of other things from that region.
Speaker BAnd my mom, who's white, is usually a mix of.
Speaker BShe's American Indian, she's French, she's German, she's Dutch, and hence my height and size.
Speaker AYeah.
Speaker BYou know, you start to.
Speaker BYou start to get comfortable with the fact that, like, you know, I might be a mutt by traditional standards, but I like it.
Speaker BYeah.
Speaker AI mean, I'm not saying there's in.
Speaker AThere's nothing wrong with it.
Speaker AThat's the thing that we've been trying to like, because both mine and my wife's families are.
Speaker AThey're all Afghan.
Speaker ARight.
Speaker BSo like a 23andMe or something like that.
Speaker AI bet you definitely ain't doing no 23andMe, bruh.
Speaker AThey're not keeping my DNA over there and selling it off.
Speaker AYeah, but it's how to introduce the culture in a way to where, you know, it's not, like being forced upon them, but it's, like, more, you know, gradual.
Speaker AYou know what I mean?
Speaker ASo for me, it was really, like, in.
Speaker AThat was, like, one thing that I loved about our culture was, like, the.
Speaker AThe rugs in.
Speaker AIn the home.
Speaker ALike, I don't care about the furniture.
Speaker BYeah, Yeah.
Speaker AI love this.
Speaker BYeah.
Speaker ABut, like, the Afghan rugs in the home, like, I don't know.
Speaker AI just.
Speaker ALike, my wife, for whatever reason, she's like, I've had it my whole life.
Speaker AI hate it.
Speaker AI don't want it.
Speaker AI was like, please, I want it.
Speaker ARight.
Speaker BI think you can do.
Speaker BI would love to see, like, like, a brutalist style, like, house where it's, like, all concrete and industrial, like, but then you throw in, like, really nice, like, after rugs, you know, or.
Speaker BI think that's beautiful.
Speaker AYeah.
Speaker AYeah.
Speaker BYou have like, these little, like, statement pieces throughout the house that bring in warmth.
Speaker AI think it's awesome.
Speaker AYeah, I agree.
Speaker AAnd then just some of the.
Speaker ASome of the other stuff.
Speaker ARight.
Speaker ALike, for instance, we're trying to teach them, look, when adults walk into the room, you stand up and you greet them.
Speaker BYeah, I like that.
Speaker BI think that's just.
Speaker BYou learned respectful ideals that are based around your culture.
Speaker BBut if that.
Speaker BThat's probably one of the best things I learned from my father was it's weird, like, when you're a kid growing up with, like, middle Eastern parents.
Speaker BI don't know if it's the same for, like, every culture.
Speaker BI know certainly regil is the same.
Speaker BLike, respect is a huge part of, like, the progression of age.
Speaker BAnd, like, when people walk in the room that are older than you, there's certain things you do and.
Speaker AYeah.
Speaker BThere's certain greetings you provide.
Speaker AYeah.
Speaker BI think all cultures have an element of that.
Speaker BIt's just expressed in different ways.
Speaker AYeah, I would hope so.
Speaker AAnyways.
Speaker ASo we're.
Speaker AWe're, like, dabbling and trying to teach the kids.
Speaker ALike, my son's way more receptive to it.
Speaker AMy daughter's kind of like, why?
Speaker AReally?
Speaker AYeah.
Speaker ASo we're like, okay.
Speaker AShe's.
Speaker AThat one's gonna be a challenge.
Speaker BYou know, my parents did that I don't think I could do is that they.
Speaker BThey were really open to the idea of different religions.
Speaker BSo my father was Muslim, became Christian, still kind of both went to Christian law schools.
Speaker BI went to, like, Catholic private schools.
Speaker BI went to Christian private schools.
Speaker BI went to Muslim mosque school at night, you know, read the Quran.
Speaker BI know.
Speaker BYou know, I did.
Speaker AIt was fine.
Speaker AIt's fine.
Speaker AIt was great.
Speaker BNo.
Speaker BOkay.
Speaker BAll right.
Speaker BI have, you know, Jewish family members, Jewish best friend growing up, you know, gone down the path of, like, temple.
Speaker BBeen there, like, have tremendous respect for.
Speaker BFor the religion.
Speaker BI've spent a lot of time with Buddhism, traveled all over Southeast Asia, been the temples there.
Speaker BAnd my parents were very open to, like, whatever spirituality you think you can, you know, anchor yourself into.
Speaker BBecause to them, it wasn't, like, buy into mine.
Speaker ARight.
Speaker BYou know, it was like, hey, like, what you do, what you think is you.
Speaker AYeah, that.
Speaker AAnd that's the messaging that we really have at our.
Speaker AIn our home is do what makes you feel like you're the best.
Speaker AMakes you the best version of yourself, whatever that may be.
Speaker ARight.
Speaker BYeah.
Speaker AAs long.
Speaker AAnd if.
Speaker ABut just make sure that that's your best version.
Speaker AThat's all I'm asking.
Speaker BI think all those cultures, when you.
Speaker BIt's crazy to me, too, because I've traveled a lot over the world.
Speaker BI'm really into ancient history and archaeology.
Speaker BA lot of those.
Speaker BI'm sorry, too much.
Speaker BToo much caffeine insult.
Speaker BA lot of those cultures have very similar stories.
Speaker BA lot of, like, the extremists will take the stories and divide the.
Speaker BThe nuances between them to separate people.
Speaker AYeah.
Speaker BBut I tend to look at all these cultures and go, okay, if they all came from, like, a same Eastern European, kind of centralized, you know, area all the way to the Middle east at the time, maybe even up through Asia.
Speaker BDepending where you're at.
Speaker BThey.
Speaker BThey all have, like, the exact same stories.
Speaker AOh, it's pretty similar.
Speaker BVery similar stories.
Speaker AYeah, yeah, yeah.
Speaker ASimilar, like rules and guidelines.
Speaker BYeah.
Speaker BSo similar philosophies and how you treat people.
Speaker ARight.
Speaker BI mean, there's like, sacraments and whatnot that are very different.
Speaker BEven Buddhism has a little bit of this in their spirituality.
Speaker BBut it's very interesting when you stop spending so much time trying to find the differences in religions and start trying to find the similarities, because it really dovetails in and we try to understand the cultures where these came from.
Speaker BWhat's really interesting to me is when you get to, like, islands like Japan, like, how they developed differently.
Speaker BAnd then there's a Korean, Japanese link lineage.
Speaker BReally fascinating.
Speaker BSo really, really interesting human stuff there.
Speaker BBut we're here to talk about M and A.
Speaker ALet's do this.
Speaker BYeah.
Speaker AGive me some M and A.
Speaker BGetting off topic.
Speaker AGive me some M and A.
Speaker BSo this came up on a couple different platforms.
Speaker BWow.
Speaker BThe two largest real estate residential.
Speaker BReal estate brokerages are combining Compass to acquire Anywhere Anywhere owns Century 21, Coldwell Banker, Sotheby's Better Homes, and a couple other ones for $1.6 billion.
Speaker BCompass announced this via press release.
Speaker BAnd it was a meaningful press release, one that Ryan Sirhant jumped all over, set up a hotline.
Speaker BEverybody had emotional trauma and tolls.
Speaker BIf anybody wanted to join his firm.
Speaker BYou know, he had like a whole website set up literally within like, 24 hours.
Speaker BIt was.
Speaker BIt was the same day.
Speaker BBut this is massive.
Speaker BTwo of the biggest in the.
Speaker BIn the business are coming together.
Speaker BThat's not happening because the business is in a safe place.
Speaker AYeah, Right.
Speaker BIt's right.
Speaker BWhen people go through M and A, it's because they're usually the top of a cycle or they're entering into where they think will be tough times.
Speaker AGot it.
Speaker BRight.
Speaker AYeah.
Speaker BIt's either the perfect time to sell or it's just after.
Speaker BAnd it's never leading up to it because why would you leave money on the table?
Speaker ANo, Right, Exactly.
Speaker BRight.
Speaker BSo now, first of all, if this gets past antitrust laws, which.
Speaker BThis could be a monopoly.
Speaker BRight.
Speaker AThat's how big.
Speaker AThat's how big these two are.
Speaker BThat's how big this is.
Speaker BBut assuming you can get past antitrust scrutiny and you might be able to.
Speaker BThis is very telling.
Speaker BRight.
Speaker BThe market is consolidating on the single family residential side.
Speaker BWhy is this consolidating?
Speaker BNow?
Speaker BIf home sales are going up 20% and all things are peachy and lovely and great.
Speaker BRight?
Speaker AYeah.
Speaker BThis, to me is indicative of bigger financial stress.
Speaker BAnd we have always said and told people by the time it gets to the news, it's too late.
Speaker BThe headlines have already been made.
Speaker BIf you see on the news, it's already been traded, diced up.
Speaker AWhat's too late?
Speaker AWhat makes it too late?
Speaker BYou're not going to make money on the trade if everybody else knows about it.
Speaker AOkay, I see.
Speaker BI'm telling you right now, the real estate market is changing.
Speaker BAnd this press release going out, which got some coverage, is indicative of stress in the economy, not winning.
Speaker BAnd because I think there's so much private equity money dispersed out there, Private equity is in the business to make money and get out at the top.
Speaker ARight.
Speaker AAnd make a return for their investors.
Speaker BRight, right.
Speaker BThey are not going to hold on to something that has risk in it, but they're not going to leave money on the table.
Speaker BThey're going to keep running this thing up as far as they can get it.
Speaker BWhen they think they've gone as far as they can, they sell.
Speaker BAnd that usually sells what starts off as an activity.
Speaker ASo when something like this happens, I mean, how long it gets announced?
Speaker AThis gets announced to win.
Speaker AJust two days ago.
Speaker BTwo days ago.
Speaker AYeah, yeah.
Speaker AHow long until they.
Speaker ASomething like this can close?
Speaker BIt depends on by industry.
Speaker BIt'll probably take a couple months at the very, very earliest.
Speaker BBut it'll be, I mean, the antitrust law scrutiny, it'll probably be six months to a year.
Speaker AMy guess, lawyers are going to find a way to get their billable hours through this.
Speaker BWell, I mean, look, you have to regulators, you've got public trading institutions.
Speaker BI mean, it's, it's some work.
Speaker BIt's not easy.
Speaker ARight.
Speaker BBut I think more than anything else, it's indicative of where the economy might be going.
Speaker BThis is indicative.
Speaker BThat could be frothy.
Speaker BRight.
Speaker BThey, they see something that we don't and they're trading based off of it.
Speaker BAnd by the time the headlines come out for the reasons why these trades made sense, I, I think.
Speaker ADo they both do the same thing?
Speaker AI personally never heard of Anywhere Real Estate.
Speaker AYeah.
Speaker BYou have all the subsidiary companies.
Speaker AOh, the subsidiary.
Speaker AOh, okay.
Speaker BYeah.
Speaker BSo Anywhere Real Estate is just the parent company of all the other companies that I mentioned.
Speaker BSo just to be clear, you've all heard of them.
Speaker BYou guys didn't recognize they had already swooped up so many of the competition.
Speaker BSo Anywhere owns Century 21.
Speaker AOkay.
Speaker BThey own Coldwell Banker.
Speaker BThey Own Sotheby's.
Speaker BThey own Better Homes and Corin or.
Speaker BYeah, Corin, whatever.
Speaker BSo they own.
Speaker BYeah, they are the largest.
Speaker AOkay, okay, okay.
Speaker BThey're the two largest real estate companies.
Speaker BAnd I've always had beef with Robert Refkin and well, Compass in particular I've had beef with.
Speaker BAnd their model was originally built on this whole like tech model.
Speaker BAnd it was like a fintech play.
Speaker BAnd it's not.
Speaker BIt's just a real estate brokerage.
Speaker BIt's all shenanigans.
Speaker BBut they've got a ton of money behind them and a ton of investment behind them.
Speaker BAnd this is a huge play for them.
Speaker BAnd maybe it's good for them, maybe it's bad for anywhere.
Speaker BI don't know.
Speaker BI think what comes next is a cycle of boutique real estate firms because these are getting too big now and people don't feel they get lost in those systems.
Speaker BAnd a lot of the real estate agents and real estate brokers, you give more of your commission.
Speaker BThese big companies, that's the problem.
Speaker BYeah, you get a lot of support, a lot of infrastructure, a lot of people to help you out.
Speaker BBut once you get your bearings and you know, the business that was want or need that.
Speaker AYeah, but that's their value.
Speaker ARight.
Speaker ATheir value is that they can do it on their own and they don't, they don't need that, that infrastructure.
Speaker BThat's right.
Speaker BSo I think a lot of people are going to go to more boutique style real estate, regional real estate companies in the future.
Speaker BI think that's you rise of those.
Speaker BWhy?
Speaker AWhy would somebody go to that?
Speaker BKevin's firm Case does a great job of this.
Speaker BHe says less corporate, more connected.
Speaker BI think that's a sensational way of putting it.
Speaker BAnd he has a concierge.
Speaker BHe's created a. Curated a brand around his ideal client.
Speaker BRight.
Speaker BHe loves mid century modern.
Speaker BHe loves, you know, coastal homes.
Speaker BBut he also has like, you know, some stuff in Big Bear, some stuff in Joshua Tree in the desert.
Speaker BBut he has a niche client that fits his mold.
Speaker BBut those people resonate with him and he resonates with them because they culturally identify with one another.
Speaker BHe does car meets, he does running together.
Speaker AYeah, yeah, yeah.
Speaker BIt's an entire ecosystem of people who like being around one.
Speaker AThat's really cool.
Speaker BBut it's not this big corporate structure and it makes him more authentic, more relatable.
Speaker BIt's one of the things we talked about a lot on this show.
Speaker BThe next generation of leadership is going to come from companies that have leadership that, you know, yeah, exactly.
Speaker AThey put themselves out there.
Speaker AThat's right.
Speaker AThey give you insight and into their actual dayto day or their actual opinions, right?
Speaker B100%.
Speaker AYeah.
Speaker BSo, yeah.
Speaker AAnyway, the kids like to say 10 toes down.
Speaker B10.
Speaker B10 toes down.
Speaker AYeah.
Speaker BIt's a Hunman kind.
Speaker AI don't know.
Speaker AI just hear the kid say it.
Speaker AOh, God, I'm so sorry, man.
Speaker AI just know what my son comes home and he says.
Speaker AYou know what he's been saying lately?
Speaker BWhat?
Speaker AWhen I.
Speaker AWhen I try to check him on something, or I'll be like, A.D. i'm coming.
Speaker ALet me try to do this.
Speaker AYou know what he says?
Speaker BYou're not him.
Speaker ABetter.
Speaker AYou're not like that.
Speaker AI'm like, you're not like that.
Speaker AI'm like.
Speaker AI'm like that.
Speaker AI'm like that.
Speaker ALet me show you how to do this math problem.
Speaker BYou know, at some point in time, he's.
Speaker BHe's gonna be like, hey, dad, you want me to listen to you?
Speaker AYeah.
Speaker BOver there is a bar with 225 on it.
Speaker BYeah.
Speaker APut it up for 10.
Speaker AExactly.
Speaker AAnd I'm gonna do it.
Speaker AYour boy's been getting after it.
Speaker B225 for 10.
Speaker ANo, no, right now.
Speaker A225 for 4.
Speaker AFor 4.
Speaker BFlat bench.
Speaker BIncline.
Speaker BBench or decline?
Speaker BBench.
Speaker AA slight incline.
Speaker AVery slight incline.
Speaker AJust to take a little bit pressure off the shoulders.
Speaker BOkay.
Speaker AYeah.
Speaker BAbout decline.
Speaker BMore or less.
Speaker AI don't do declines.
Speaker AI don't have.
Speaker AMy bench doesn't go.
Speaker AI do home gyms.
Speaker AMy bench doesn't do decline and that, but decline's always more, bro.
Speaker AWhat are you talking about?
Speaker AThat's a cheap.
Speaker AYes, it is.
Speaker AIf you can't do more, I mean, there's some problems.
Speaker AOkay.
Speaker BAll right.
Speaker AYeah.
Speaker ABut 225 for 4 right now.
Speaker AI was actually kind of impressed, but I did feel a little bit of joint pain, like, in my, like, tennis elbow.
Speaker BI'm having a lot of joint pain lately, man.
Speaker BI don't want to talk about it because.
Speaker BMade me feel old.
Speaker ABut I've been.
Speaker ABut I've been on the creatine again.
Speaker AConsistently.
Speaker BYeah.
Speaker AAnd the studies have been out, dude, that, like, I know.
Speaker AFor a long time I was like, everyone's good.
Speaker AJust take 5 milligrams.
Speaker AYou don't need more than 5 milligrams.
Speaker ABut for some people, it should.
Speaker AIt might be 10 milligrams.
Speaker BI. I pretty much live off of caffeine and creatine.
Speaker AYeah.
Speaker ASo cnc.
Speaker AThe creatine's been helping out a little bit.
Speaker AWith the soreness, the recovery.
Speaker BSensational.
Speaker BYeah.
Speaker BYou should be on IGF one like me.
Speaker BI know I'm on all the gears.
Speaker ABut I can't pay for all the gears right now.
Speaker AThat's the problem.
Speaker AOne day.
Speaker BOne day you wouldn't have up that Transcend sponsorship.
Speaker AMe.
Speaker AI know it's my fault.
Speaker AThey look, they watch the episode.
Speaker AThey're like this.
Speaker AWhy?
Speaker BHow does he have the before and after photo?
Speaker BTalking to each other.
Speaker AThat was the.
Speaker AThat was the draw, right?
Speaker AYou could either be this or that.
Speaker BThey stepped up from us.
Speaker BThey got like the world's strongest man on there now.
Speaker BYeah, yeah.
Speaker AI'm like Bradley Martin.
Speaker BYeah.
Speaker BI'm like.
Speaker BI feel like they might be a bit of an upgrade.
Speaker AThey still got a. I think they.
Speaker BHave Brendan shop to Shaw on Transcend.
Speaker AI think so.
Speaker BIt wouldn't surprise me.
Speaker AYeah.
Speaker BAll right.
Speaker BSo, shocking stat of the day from the Kobese letter was, in fact, shocking.
Speaker BUnemployment rate for men age 16 to 24 with a bachelor's degree or higher and not enrolled in School jumped 13.8% in August, the highest since June of 2020.
Speaker BThis figure has doubled in just four months over the last 40 years.
Speaker BThere have only been a few times when this percentage was higher, including 2001 and 2008.
Speaker BBy comparison, the unemployment rate for women rose to about 7.1% last month, in line with historical levels.
Speaker BMeanwhile, the overall youth unemployment rate hit 10.5%, the highest in nine years outside of 2020.
Speaker B2021.
Speaker AIn front of you, he's like, unemployment rate for women rose 7 to 7.1%.
Speaker ABut hold on.
Speaker AIt's in line with historical numbers.
Speaker ADon't get.
Speaker BWell, the math here doesn't make sense.
Speaker BSo young men are being hit hardest in the labor market slowdown.
Speaker BThe Fred data, as our friend Rajeel picked up here, here's a problem that I have with this.
Speaker BOkay.
Speaker AAll right.
Speaker BOn its surface, it sounds shocking in and of itself because there's big numbers here, but I'm going to throw some numbers out to you in a more truncated fashion.
Speaker AOkay?
Speaker BAll right.
Speaker BNumber one, unemployment rate for men age 16 to 24, 13.8%.
Speaker BOkay.
Speaker BNumber two, unemployment rate for all women rose to 7.1%.
Speaker AAll women.
Speaker BAll women.
Speaker BOkay?
Speaker BAnd unemployment rate for overall Youth unemployment rate, 10.5%.
Speaker BHow the fuck do you get to tip 4.5%?
Speaker AYeah, yeah, yeah.
Speaker AHold on.
Speaker BI can do math, bro.
Speaker AYeah, that's true.
Speaker BLike, this is from Fred data.
Speaker BThis is from the Federal Reserve.
Speaker BI am very confused.
Speaker BSo if you're telling me that you took men between the ages of 16 and 24.
Speaker BSo that means men from 35 to 44 are like at a 2% unemployment rate or something.
Speaker AYeah, that or one.
Speaker BI mean, you got.
Speaker BYou're talking 7%, 13%.
Speaker BAnd this is why they're 10.5.
Speaker AThis is why their numbers always need to be revised.
Speaker BI'm just.
Speaker BI'm just.
Speaker BI'm confused.
Speaker AI'm a little confused.
Speaker ATrying to make sense of it in real time.
Speaker BPlease.
Speaker BI'll wait.
Speaker ANo, yeah, no, let's not do that.
Speaker AGive.
Speaker AGive some time to think about it.
Speaker BAs a matter of fact, I will give you some incentives.
Speaker BYeah, it doesn't make any sense to me whatsoever.
Speaker BBut that.
Speaker BThat's interesting.
Speaker BWhat's even more interesting, American workers are in fact working less hours.
Speaker AYeah.
Speaker AWhich aren't.
Speaker AAre not being factored into this unemployment rate.
Speaker BNo.
Speaker BNo.
Speaker BSo US average weekly hours worked hit 34.2, one of the lowest readings since the great financial crisis.
Speaker BAnd I know it's easy for anyone to say, hey, guys.
Speaker AHey.
Speaker BThat means people are less stressed because they're working less hours.
Speaker ANo sleep.
Speaker AStop.
Speaker BYou should be happy that American workers are working less hours.
Speaker ARidiculous.
Speaker BSide.
Speaker BCare to break it down?
Speaker AYeah.
Speaker ANo.
Speaker AThat would just mean they're not making enough to make ends meet.
Speaker AThey're having to rely more on credit cards.
Speaker AThat's why household debt is at an all time high.
Speaker AAnd if anything, cortisol levels are probably through the roof.
Speaker BShout out to Ghost Orange Cream.
Speaker BYeah, keep my cortisol level.
Speaker BBut let me give something else to think about why we're having this conversation.
Speaker BHistory shows that when hours drop this low, layoffs often, often follow.
Speaker BYou know what layoffs often follow as well.
Speaker AWhat?
Speaker BM and A activity, baby.
Speaker ALook at that.
Speaker AYou tying it all together.
Speaker BTying all big ribbon on top.
Speaker AYou're a professional, bro.
Speaker BI'm out here, bro.
Speaker BMore layoffs coming to this market, I can guarantee you.
Speaker BLook at the chart that Rejeel pulled up.
Speaker BYou got two times that are circled that are similar.
Speaker BThe great financial crisis.
Speaker BThe 2020 pandemic crisis, if you want to call it that.
Speaker BAnd today.
Speaker AYeah.
Speaker BThat is when you have hours that have been this low.
Speaker BDo I give you any more circumstances?
Speaker ANo.
Speaker AAnd you can explain it too, given the previous C suite position that you carried for a long time.
Speaker BWas it so sweet?
Speaker ANo.
Speaker AThe suite.
Speaker BYeah, the space.
Speaker AThe space.
Speaker ASorry.
Speaker AThe.
Speaker AThe reason why they wouldn't just lay off.
Speaker ARight.
Speaker ABecause it takes time to have to rehire people.
Speaker ASo what they're going to do first is cut hours first.
Speaker BYeah.
Speaker AAnd keep you around until they realize, okay, no, we really don't need, you know, all these people, let's let them go.
Speaker AAnd especially if they cut that cost, what does that do to operational costs?
Speaker AWhat does that do to their earnings?
Speaker AWhat does that.
Speaker AThat helps out.
Speaker AYou know what I mean it.
Speaker AFor, for some companies out there, especially some of these ghost companies, these zombie companies, I mean it, it delays the inevitable just a little bit longer.
Speaker BWell, just when you think it's these guys are negative and doom and gloom, we're gonna get a little more doomy and gloomy.
Speaker AA little more Rubini, a little more Norieli.
Speaker AYeah.
Speaker ANoriel.
Speaker BYeah.
Speaker BThe top 10 stocks now reflect a record 41% of the S&P 500's market cap.
Speaker BNot in and of itself.
Speaker BSuper shocking because we know about the MAG7, but.
Speaker BBut this share has risen about 6 percentage points over the last five months.
Speaker BThis comes as their combined market value has skyrocketed by $8 trillion over this period.
Speaker BThe MAG7, which we often talk about on the show, stocks alone now make up for a record 35% of the index.
Speaker BBy comparison, in January of 2023, the share was about 20%.
Speaker BTech stocks effectively are the stock market.
Speaker AYeah, yeah, exactly.
Speaker BThe chart that Regil is pulling up shows you the top 10 U.S. stocks command record.
Speaker BI'm sorry, what percentage is that?
Speaker A41%.
Speaker B41% of the S&P 500 market cap.
Speaker BAnd those are all tech stocks, which.
Speaker AScares me a great deal.
Speaker ARight.
Speaker ABecause it's like, okay, I don't want to get close to a dot com bubble crash.
Speaker ARight.
Speaker AAnd this is the closest thing to.
Speaker BIt that we've experienced since then.
Speaker AYeah, yeah, that we experienced this.
Speaker AAnd that could easily be taken away from us like that.
Speaker ARight.
Speaker BI mean, when the cyborgs come online.
Speaker BSkynet's live, right?
Speaker AI mean, we, I think I, I read, I read a report last week or maybe two weeks ago that if Meta by themselves were to completely pause the amount of money that they're dumping into these data center spaces or just what they've been putting into AI that in and of itself by them pausing the money that putting in would cause a recession.
Speaker AJust pausing.
Speaker BCan you imagine being Zuckerberg?
Speaker AThat's a lot of power, bro.
Speaker BYeah, right.
Speaker BHe's basically skeletor.
Speaker AThat and.
Speaker AYeah, and then they had that, they had that whole meeting.
Speaker BThat sound you guys heard in the background, I don't know if it came through or not.
Speaker BThat was one of my alerts from.
Speaker BFrom the app on the home prices.
Speaker AOh, was it?
Speaker BYeah.
Speaker B36 Oakdale Irvine.
Speaker B1.65 million.
Speaker BFour bedrooms, two bath.
Speaker ADang.
Speaker BI'm playing.
Speaker BYeah.
Speaker ASo you're looking.
Speaker AAre you just messing with the.
Speaker BNo, those are the alert from like four years ago.
Speaker BThey just can't come back online because home prices dropped.
Speaker BWow.
Speaker BThat nobody wants to admit to.
Speaker BThat Dropped.
Speaker AThat nobody wants to admit to.
Speaker BYeah.
Speaker ASo you're looking upsize or not?
Speaker AYou think.
Speaker AYou think you might get a good deal?
Speaker BI'm poor.
Speaker AI think we have a different definition of poor.
Speaker BI am.
Speaker BI'm under a great degree of stress.
Speaker AYeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah.
Speaker AThere you go.
Speaker AI need Cedrin.
Speaker ADon't need.
Speaker AHow about some Tylenol?
Speaker BCan I offer you iPhone 17 Pro Max dog?
Speaker BCome on.
Speaker ADid you see?
Speaker ADid you see?
Speaker AOh, it hasn't come in yet.
Speaker BNo, it's at home right now.
Speaker ADid you see Donald Trump try to try to pronounce it too, when he's giving a speech?
Speaker AWhatever Tylenol is supposed to be.
Speaker AHe's like.
Speaker AHe could.
Speaker AHe's like.
Speaker AIs that how you say the word?
Speaker AIs that how you say it?
Speaker BI cannot comment on a political matter.
Speaker ACome on, man.
Speaker AWe can make light of the situation, bro.
Speaker BCannot make light of a situation without encouraging politics, apparently.
Speaker BSo I'm going to say that's what I'm doing.
Speaker AI'm just going to come on every show and just try to bait you with all this.
Speaker BThat is a very humorous observation.
Speaker AHow do you feel about Jimmy Kimmel?
Speaker BThat is also a very humorous observation.
Speaker AYeah.
Speaker BWho is this Mr. Kimmel you speak of?
Speaker AWho is this guy?
Speaker AYeah, yeah.
Speaker BIs he the owner of Kimmel and Bits?
Speaker AYeah, yeah.
Speaker BSo there's another indicator which I've watched closely for some time that we don't talk a whole lot about on the show.
Speaker BIt's actually got an entire website allocated to it.
Speaker BThe current market valuation.comlink will be in the show notes on every platform.
Speaker BThis is the Buffett indicator.
Speaker BWe don't talk a whole lot about it.
Speaker BThis is kind of those indicators.
Speaker BIt's been like me, but it's very easily to quantify.
Speaker BThe numbers are solid and consistent and it's because it's market driven and GDP driven.
Speaker BYou just have solid places to look.
Speaker BSo this is the Buffett indicator, AKA the Buffett index, AKA the Buffett ratio, AKA Buff Diddy.
Speaker AYeah.
Speaker ANot to be confused with Kramer.
Speaker BYeah.
Speaker BOr the reverse Kramer.
Speaker BOh, the reverse Kramer is the ratio of total United States stock market to GDP it just hit 217%.
Speaker BAnd I know you're saying, chris, what the fuck does that mean?
Speaker BWell, allow me to explain.
Speaker AWhat does it mean, Chris?
Speaker BApproximately 69% above trend.
Speaker BThe ratio fluctuates over time since the value of the stock market can be very volatile.
Speaker BBut GDP tends to grow much more predictably.
Speaker BSo the current ratio of 217% is approximately 68.63% or about 2.2 standard deviations above the historical trend line, suggesting that the stock market is strongly overvalued relative to gdp.
Speaker ASo what, what would make it, what percentage would make, have it be like in line?
Speaker BWell, I'm glad you asked.
Speaker BRajeel, there's a chart for us to pull up here.
Speaker ABang.
Speaker BYeah.
Speaker BAnd this chart shows you the, the normalized line and then shows you right there.
Speaker BBut see, here's the historical trend line right there.
Speaker BThe 2 over 2 standard deviation where we currently are at is, is a significant deviation.
Speaker BJust to give you an idea, the great financial crisis.
Speaker AYeah.
Speaker BWas a two and a half standard deviation black swan event.
Speaker BYou are in that deviation right now from a price perspective.
Speaker ASo you take the u. S. Total stock market value and divided by gdp.
Speaker BRight?
Speaker BThat's right.
Speaker AOkay, so if you would have done that in 2021, it would have shown you that this is my fear with, with, with, with this indicator.
Speaker B2021'S right here.
Speaker BYeah, yeah, it would have been, you would have been on the way.
Speaker ANo, that's2021.
Speaker ARight.
Speaker ASo pretty close.
Speaker ARight?
Speaker AHere's the problem.
Speaker AIf you would have done that back then, you would have missed out on a whole lot of gains.
Speaker AMy only fear with doing that.
Speaker AI know we do have some young listeners.
Speaker AI always hear you guys talk about dollar cost averaging.
Speaker ASo I'm just going to wait for the market to completely fall off.
Speaker AYou don't do that before I start again.
Speaker ANo, the point is to.
Speaker AOkay.
Speaker AIt's a lifelong journey.
Speaker ARight.
Speaker ASo continue to.
Speaker AIf you're going to start putting in, just start putting in now.
Speaker AYeah.
Speaker AAnd you're going to ride this wave regardless.
Speaker AYou're not gonna, you're not gonna try to pull it out every time or stop investing when you think that the market is, is peaking and you know some bad news.
Speaker AOh, I heard the higher standards say that some bad news has come around.
Speaker AI know, I know the stock market's gonna take it.
Speaker BWe're a good news only show.
Speaker BWhat are you talking about?
Speaker BYeah, have you heard any bad news tonight?
Speaker AYeah, you're very Roubini, bro.
Speaker ADr. Doom.
Speaker BYeah, he fell off, man.
Speaker AYeah.
Speaker BSo disappointing.
Speaker ASo disappointing.
Speaker AHey, man, there was a time where we were just.
Speaker BHe should have been blogging that whole time.
Speaker BYeah.
Speaker ASnapchat.
Speaker BYeah.
Speaker BImagine trying to get paid.
Speaker BHim and Larry Wheels.
Speaker AYeah.
Speaker AHave his own Patreon, maybe.
Speaker AOh, man.
Speaker AI'm in.
Speaker AFive bucks.
Speaker AI'm in.
Speaker BI mean, hot tub time machine.
Speaker ADone.
Speaker AAre you kidding?
Speaker AImagine him giving financial advice from a hot tub.
Speaker BYeah.
Speaker BWith a cigar.
Speaker AI'm in with the glasses.
Speaker BPatrick by Davidson next to him talking about how he's not a pyramid scheme.
Speaker AYeah.
Speaker BThe Internet's coming for Patrick.
Speaker BHard, bro.
Speaker AThey are hard.
Speaker BWhy?
Speaker AReally?
Speaker AI mean, I, I understand the scheme, but like, why now?
Speaker AAll of a sudden?
Speaker BI think people starting to figure it out and he.
Speaker BSo he sat down with like one of those debates where he's already made his money, bro.
Speaker BI know.
Speaker BThat's the problem.
Speaker BSo he sat across from some kid and he did like one of those college style debates.
Speaker AI know.
Speaker AIt was, it was geared on capitalism.
Speaker BYeah.
Speaker ARight.
Speaker AAnd he's, he's very much pro capitalism.
Speaker BAnd these kids just came in and picked him apart about like Coffee Zillow's expose on him and some other people.
Speaker BI think it was Coffee Zillow.
Speaker BBut a lot of people who talked about him being a pyramid scheme and about how his companies make money and he just dipped, dodged up, dived and dodged.
Speaker BYeah, he was just trying.
Speaker AYeah, well, he went.
Speaker AHe did that because.
Speaker AYeah.
Speaker AWhat he's doing now is not what made him his money, is.
Speaker AIt was.
Speaker AHe was selling insurance before.
Speaker BYeah, well, they're saying that the most.
Speaker BSo somebody went through and did a look at his insurance company money and most of the money came from recruiting new agents, not from agent fees, not from insurance.
Speaker BSo that they just kept going back to that saying, you're a fan of capitalism, but you won't talk about how a pyramid scheme is not capitalism.
Speaker AOops.
Speaker BYeah, oopsies.
Speaker AYeah.
Speaker BConvenient to be a capitalist when you get all the money from the scheme.
Speaker ANow he's a minority owner in the Yankees.
Speaker BI know.
Speaker BI mean, look, he's got money you're not going to take.
Speaker AMinority owner of the Yankees.
Speaker BYeah.
Speaker AThat's crazy, man.
Speaker BYeah, I know.
Speaker BLook, I get it.
Speaker BI'm not, I'm not judging.
Speaker BI'm just saying people were coming for him.
Speaker ABut he's not.
Speaker AHe hasn't even offered.
Speaker AI haven't been following him.
Speaker AHe hasn't even offered to explain it.
Speaker BNo, he, he's just very.
Speaker AHe's or is he like, don't, don't.
Speaker AIf I neglect it, you won't address it head on.
Speaker BLike, he, he does like the classic.
Speaker BHe's really, really good at debating the content and being like, I don't say arrogant, but certainly very confident in the way he answers things.
Speaker BAnd the Internet's just not having it that people are like, no, answer the question.
Speaker BNo, no, no, no, no, no, no, no.
Speaker BAnd I feel for guys like him because on one hand it's like, look like it's not illegal.
Speaker BPyramid schemes are not illegal.
Speaker BYou might look at them as like, you know, unethical or, you know, or questionable behavior, but they're not illegal.
Speaker AI've seen some of their stuff though.
Speaker AThey, they get into some really dicey topics on their show.
Speaker AYeah, it gets a little spicy on their.
Speaker BYou think I'm a, I'm a potty mouth?
Speaker AYeah, no, it gets pretty spicy on there with some of their topics.
Speaker BYeah, I know they do, they do go hard.
Speaker BAnd then he gets real assertive on his opinion on some of this stuff and I'm just like, yeah, maybe walk that back.
Speaker BMinority owner, right?
Speaker BYou know?
Speaker AYeah, be careful.
Speaker AExactly.
Speaker BYou guys, you got some intellectual property protect over there, dog.
Speaker ARight?
Speaker BYeah, but yeah, you know, whatever.
Speaker AOkay, well, he's always welcome on here to open up if he wants to talk about it.
Speaker BI've reached out to these people before.
Speaker BI got no responses.
Speaker AYeah, they want you to pay for that minute consulting thing that he's got.
Speaker BConnect.
Speaker BThey did refer me to Minecraft.
Speaker BThey did.
Speaker AThat was.
Speaker ABro, what a scam.
Speaker ABro.
Speaker BThat's a scam.
Speaker AThat's a hardcore scam.
Speaker AListen, we're not going to charge you by the hour.
Speaker AWe'll just charge you by the minute.
Speaker AYeah, that way you don't get over that way you don't overpay.
Speaker BCan I be real about some.
Speaker BYeah, I want to, I just want to say this right now.
Speaker AKeep it real.
Speaker BWe've all at some point in time seen somebody on the Internet talking about how they paid Alex Hermosi or they paid Grant Cardone like a hundred thousand dollars or half a million dollars.
Speaker BRight?
Speaker AWhat, what are they paying for?
Speaker BFor like I sat with him for a day, I paid him half a million dollars.
Speaker BSo Alexi does, you know, they're actually.
Speaker ATaking their people's money for that.
Speaker BYou heard the story.
Speaker ANo, I thought, I thought, okay, if like you're in vet.
Speaker AIf you're, let's just say one of the investors in one of his syndicated deals, he'll like sit down and talk to you.
Speaker BOh, no, no, no.
Speaker AHe's taking consulting.
Speaker BAlex, her mosey has famously said that he paid Grant Cardone like half a million dollars or something like that to sit with him.
Speaker BAnd he got some of the best life of of his advice, which is what my beef with her mosi has always been.
Speaker AIs that where that thing was going around where people were like, would you, would you take 500 grand or have.
Speaker BOne night with my wife or have dinner?
Speaker BIs that the conversation?
Speaker ANo.
Speaker A500 grand or have dinner or have dinner with Jay Z.
Speaker ASee, he's heard it, and that was different.
Speaker AAnd then Jay Z was like, y' all the money.
Speaker AY' all are all idiots.
Speaker ATake the freaking money.
Speaker AOne dinner with me ain't gonna solve your problems.
Speaker BThat's the first honest person ever.
Speaker BBut the problem was, is like, so, like, Alex Hermosi has literally said many times that that Grant Cardone is where he started.
Speaker BAnd Grant Cardone told him, like, he paid him some crazy ass amount of money, and then he went and spent the day with him and, you know, took notes real quick.
Speaker BAnd he's the only guy who ever left early from Grant Cardone.
Speaker BAnd Grant Cardone like, takes great pride in his, like, growth, which is why I look at@likeacutive.com and I'm like, what do y' all really do?
Speaker AYeah, what is it?
Speaker AI don't even know.
Speaker AI don't even know what he does.
Speaker AI know he's, I know he's promoted a couple books.
Speaker BYeah.
Speaker BAnd look, I I.
Speaker BGood for you.
Speaker BYour books are sensational, and they're doing really well, but what do they do?
Speaker AYeah.
Speaker ADon't love your job, job your love.
Speaker BChris job, your love said.
Speaker AI love influencers, bro.
Speaker AThat.
Speaker AThat's his wife, right?
Speaker AI think that's hormones wife, bro.
Speaker AI'm like, what's going on?
Speaker AWhat the does that mean?
Speaker AWhat does that mean?
Speaker AAnd then, and then that.
Speaker AAnd then the jerk that's sitting across from her.
Speaker BI love, I love that.
Speaker AI love that.
Speaker BI love that for you.
Speaker AHey, hey, do me a favor.
Speaker AI want to curse some.
Speaker BI did an annual review.
Speaker AIn a real company.
Speaker AHonestly, I don't, I don't just love my job.
Speaker BI job, my love I job, my.
Speaker ALove for you people jobbing.
Speaker AI'm jobbing right now.
Speaker BThat's the part we've got to this guru culture.
Speaker BPeople say that makes no sense.
Speaker AHere's my thing.
Speaker BOh, my God.
Speaker AHere's my thing.
Speaker AI mean, did she had to have run that by him, right?
Speaker ANo, she had to be like, hey, honey, I got.
Speaker AI got a new slogan for us.
Speaker BNo, the best part was, after the show, no one was like, yo, you gonna.
Speaker BYou edit that out?
Speaker BYeah.
Speaker BNo one was like.
Speaker AYeah.
Speaker AAnd that guy was like, oh, this is it for me.
Speaker BYeah.
Speaker BHe's like, oh, fuck, that's.
Speaker BThat's real right there.
Speaker AThat's viral.
Speaker BPut that shit on the Internet.
Speaker AYeah, that's it.
Speaker BLet that go round and round.
Speaker AYeah, but he should have.
Speaker AYou should have slow played.
Speaker ACome on, man.
Speaker AWhat are you doing?
Speaker AYou just killed you off your own.
Speaker BDude made like.
Speaker BLike a.
Speaker BLike a house mix for that.
Speaker AI love it.
Speaker AI did.
Speaker AI saw he was dancing.
Speaker BJob, your love.
Speaker AYeah, yeah.
Speaker AWhat do.
Speaker AWhat do DJs even do?
Speaker AAnd then they just remixed it.
Speaker BThat's the Internet culture for you, man.
Speaker BWell, we're not going to do better than that, so.
Speaker BJob, your love, everybody, and make sure.
Speaker AYou get all the incentives.
Speaker BGood night, everybody.
Speaker AOkay, bye.
Speaker ABye.