Feels good to be back two days ago.

Okay.

Feels good.

Does it feel good?

Yes.

You know, I had a.

I had a thought while I was using AI on the last show.

Using AI we're going to get to the point where we can make avatars and just tell them what to say to each other.

We should.

We don't have to be here anymore.

Just tell the Avatars what to say.

Have a conversation about this.

Yeah.

And I need you to make fun of Said's hair at this point, and the Avatars will do it.

My hair?

What's wrong with my hair?

You've been rocking the low low lately.

The low low what?

My beard.

You look crispy.

Don't get me wrong.

I like it, but you've been.

I want to go back to the shaved head.

No, you say that every time, then every single time you do it, you regret it.

I'm just waiting to get lean, and then I'm gonna do it.

It doesn't have.

So we're gonna be here a while.

Having a shaved head, when you're a little thicky thick, it doesn't really go very well.

Portions don't go well.

It doesn't, especially.

You got a round face like mine.

True story.

I shaved my head once, right.

And my then girlfriend said to me, yeah, you shouldn't do that.

I was offended by it.

Right?

Yeah.

Years later, I had, by happenstance, shaved my head again, and I lost a bunch of weight.

Right.

She was like, oh, my God, your hair looks so good like that.

And I'm like, weren't you the same girl who said that I shouldn't do?

She's like, but you were fat then.

Oh.

And she's like, you're not so fat now, so it looks okay.

So to your point, it is true.

It's true.

So I made the right call.

You made the right call.

All right.

Well, welcome back to the number one financial literacy podcast in the world.

Sitting next to my.

On my left is Christopher Naby.

Did you get a little accent?

Keep you on your toes.

You say neck to Mike.

Is that what that was?

No, that's not what I said.

That's what it sounded like.

Oh.

I like to hear my partner in time, the one and only said, Omar.

Thank you, my man.

And sitting behind the ones and twos.

He's not DJ Arun.

He's still in pto.

Yeah, he's going to be there for a while.

Get used to that introduction and, well, yeah.

We miss you, brother.

We do miss you.

Although he doesn't listen to the Show.

Clearly he hasn't told me he misses me too.

Hasn't listened to the last show, hasn't.

Yeah, I haven't gotten a text message from or anything.

Have you heard from him at all?

No, I think they've been, they've been pretty busy.

They're planning an engagement party at their house for one of their cousins.

Wait, what?

Really?

Like two, three weeks?

Yeah.

I would never do that.

What a good family member.

That's a very good.

I would not do what now?

My house.

No.

Very considerate.

No, no, no, no.

They, they don't say do it at their house.

They're offering their house.

Yeah, I, I, I would not do that.

Yeah, very.

This is part of the reason why people are like Chris.

Why do they still live in a small place?

Yeah, all that, all that right there.

Yeah.

I don't want none of this.

So today's episode, we're going to first start off with the question, is the American Dream dead man, when you said.

This before the show, got my mind going because I've actually had this debate internally quite a bit.

Have you?

Yeah, Because I mean, life, liberty, pursuit of happiness as written in the Declaration of Independence.

Right?

Yeah.

That meant, pursuit of happiness was literally interpreted to mean ownership of land.

Right.

An essential fundamental part of the American dream was meant to be property.

Ownership of property that you could call your own.

You could have a piece of this country.

That was the, quote, pursuit of happiness.

Right.

And that dream is wildly out of reach.

I don't know if I have that in this show.

If I have the, the sentiment numbers do I have?

I think you do.

I think there are, there are some figures in there that you want to reference.

Yeah, well, basically, long story short, most, Yeah, I do have it in here.

The survey, like 84% of Americans, and I will get to it at some point in the show, think that now is a bad time to buy a home.

Exactly.

And that's why I really want to start off the show with this topic was because I thought it would go right into all the data points that we wanted to speak on later.

But to Chris's point, you know, the American dream always started off with, you know, the ability to own land, and now it has evolved into other things too.

Right.

No matter what walk of life you come from, you should be able, with determination and hard work, you can, you can be successful, you can own a home, you can have a great job and just provide a better life for you and your family.

Yeah.

And I'll modify a little bit from a Financial perspective.

And just from the way our.

The way our expectations of life have evolved, I would say life, liberty, pursuit of happiness now means, in the context of what we think of American life now, is the ability to build wealth.

Absolutely right.

But I think that for most Americans, that feels wildly out of reach at a time where you can see other people's wealth, real or not.

Yes, exactly.

And that a huge part as to, you know, before me coming on and joining this show.

Right.

Was the reason why I chose to not be on social media.

Right.

Because I just wanted to stay away from that because I know it was very toxic.

Right.

And so you stuck solely to only fans.

Just.

Just the only fans.

By the way, we never talked about this, but you know how many times I've tried to advertise our shows on only fans?

No, no, no, that's.

We should probably do that too.

We get flagged on YouTube for, like, the most outrageous stuff.

I swear to God, I don't like, zero appreciation for what we bring to the table.

Watch.

I can get this entire show.

This is a good episode.

One word.

This is a good episode.

Peptide.

Done.

I had to bleep it out.

Right.

All right.

But we're not doomsayers, right?

We're not.

We're not saying that it is, in fact dead.

We're just bringing into question.

We're.

We're also.

We want the listeners to be able to confide in us knowing that we understand the struggle.

We understand that what everyone's going through.

Even though you might see things on social media, you might.

I've never seen more McLarens on the road than I have these days.

It's getting out of control.

Yeah.

Southern California is a tough spot, man.

It's wild, bro.

So the outside of my office is that big lifetime fitness facility.

It's every influencer and their mom goes.

There and they all walk in with selfie sticks.

And I don't know if you ever worked out there.

I made the mistake of going there once to grab food.

And it is like a.

A comedic video you see on YouTube about influencers.

But it's real life.

People will have those selfie poles.

They'll put them on the floor, they'll angle it towards, like the.

The lie down, face light, lie down glute machine.

Or, you know, and then they'll.

They'll fly down face flat.

They'll do like their booty, like, leg curl thing, and you're just like, oh, my God.

Right?

And it's just.

It's everywhere, but out front, cullinans you know, specters, you got Lambos, you got ferraris, you got McLarens, right?

And you're like, what are y'all doing?

This isn't.

This isn't real life.

And not to mention they're all there for multiple hours in the middle of the day.

What kind of jobs y'all got?

Like, I don't understand what's going on.

There's only one person whose car I see there a lot that I'm like, okay, I get why you're there.

And that's Joey Swole.

I don't know who Joey Swole is.

Stop.

Sorry.

Who is that?

Come on, man.

Who's that?

Who's Joey Swole?

The classiest guy in the gym you ever gonna meet, bro.

Really?

Yeah.

Okay.

He's the king of gym etiquette.

Okay.

His whole thing on social media, shout out to Joey.

He lives obviously nearby, but he, he was way, way back in the day.

He was a shreds guy.

Oh, okay.

But he's always been Jack.

He's a super kind headed Carter hearted teddy bear.

He looks like a badass, cuz, you know, he's just huge.

Yeah.

But he found a new niche for himself on social media, kind of reinvented himself a little bit, where people will post themselves doing things in gyms and then he will literally tell you why that's wildly inappropriate.

Like the number one offender for him, people taking video of themselves in a gym in a public space, but getting upset when people walk by them in the video.

Yeah.

And he's like, who do you think you are that you own a gym?

Like that is wildly disrespectful.

Right.

Or his biggest pet peeve, I think is probably the people taking gym selfies in the locker room with other people's like nudity being exposed, you know, or complete disregard for other people's, you know, just privacy.

Right.

I know you're right.

I know we're sidetracking here just a little bit, but what on this show, on this show, um, I know you're at a different stage in life now and maybe different than what you.

How you used to handle the situation.

But if somebody were to, if somebody were to come up to you at the gym now.

I know, because now you just want to get in, get out.

You got a family waiting for you at home.

But if they ask you, hey, do you mind if I work in.

This literally just happened to me yesterday.

Okay, so what's the response now?

Because I know back in the day, for me, it.

I was always.

Yeah, of Course, sure, no problem.

Because I know it's going to be awkward if I say no to you now.

Every time we walk in, we got.

It's this awkwardness.

My only beef with it back in the day was if.

If you ask to work in and you adjust the weights, you got to set.

You got to adjust the weights back.

So, I mean, I'm even more.

I'm.

Okay.

There's no nice.

I'm going to sound like a bad person.

Okay.

I.

I recognize this.

So yesterday, I use this as an example, and this is a huge pet peeve for me.

All right?

Asking you to work in.

Don't do it.

Do not do it.

Well, yeah, you got.

Because you.

You also have the big fu.

Headphones on.

I got the big studio beats by Dre.

I got a hat on.

I wear oversized, baggy clothes.

Public service announcement.

If someone's wearing big headphones, then don't talk to them.

It's a universal sign for do not.

And if I have to take my headphones off to hear what you're saying to me.

Yeah, now you're just fucking with me.

You're getting a visceral response.

Yeah.

So this very nice looking gentleman comes up to me and he.

You can tell he's eyeing the leg machine that I'm on.

What.

What made him so nice looking?

I'm on the leg press.

Huh?

What made him so nice looking?

You said he's nice looking.

Because I'm pretty sure he wasn't trying to be rude, right?

He wasn't trying to be malicious.

And he.

He looked like he understood gym etiquette, right?

And he had a bag, and he.

You can just tell, like he wanted to be on that machine.

He had been in there a while.

He'd been in the gym, okay.

He knows the culture.

This is not a new guy.

Right?

So he's looking over at this leg press machine that I'm on, and I have a leg press machine that I'm doing.

Here's what I do.

This is very common for me.

I do circuits on everything that I do because I got 40 minutes.

In, out, circuits.

Yeah.

So I'm gonna do.

I'll do wide leg press.

I'll do narrow leg press.

I'll do calves on that machine in front of it.

I'll do banded air squats, Then I'll do banded Roman deadlift.

Romani deadlifts.

Yeah.

Right?

And then I'm gonna do abs.

And then I'm gonna do the whole thing again.

I'm gonna do three rounds of this, right?

How Long.

Are you there on that?

Because that's a little bit inconsiderate, too.

I don't stop.

I go straight through.

Okay.

And the way I look at it is, is I'm doing really four exercises on that machine.

Okay, Right.

Three to four exercises on that machine using that machine.

So I get that I'm there for a little bit longer of a time, but I'm also not taking breaks.

I'm going straight through, and I'm going to do probably four circuits and call it a day and get out of there.

Got you.

Right.

There's another machine next to me that's just a different angle.

Same machine.

There's all the squat racks open.

This happens to me a lot.

Like the Smith machine.

There's only one Smith machine in the gym I go to if I get it.

Great.

You like the Smith machine.

What do you use it for?

I use it for a lot of different things, man.

Like, I love doing Romanian deadlifts with it because it allows you to focus more on the movement.

Okay.

Okay.

I love doing.

I'll do, like, glute.

Glute thrust.

If the glute machine isn't.

Isn't open, where I'll just, you know, do that.

I'll do one single arm, like, kind of almost like dumbbell.

Like rose.

Rose.

Yeah.

Okay.

Look at you dropping all the language.

I'm just saying, you use landmine for that.

Yeah.

Also an option.

If that's not there, I'll go to land my landmines there.

I'll do dumbbells.

So that's.

But see, I don't ask people to work in.

Like, if you guys.

You guys are on it, like, I'm gonna respect that.

Correct.

Right.

He comes over to me and I'm on my last round, and he goes, hey, man, can I work in with you?

And I go, no.

On your last round.

Okay, yeah, I'm on my last round.

Key detail.

So I'm like, no.

And he goes, why not?

And I said, I'm going to do this, and then I'm done and it's yours, but it's going to take me a minute to finish up.

And he goes, come on, man, let me just work in with you.

And I'm like, no.

And now I'm getting pissed off, right?

Like, I'm like, no, dude.

Like, no.

Right?

He's like, bro, just let me work in with you.

I've got four plates on each side.

I'm looking at him.

You ain't doing four plates, bro.

Right, right, right, right, right.

And Even then you're gonna start as I'm finishing.

Like, what are you doing?

Just wait.

Right?

So I'm like, no, dude.

Like, I will let you know when I'm done in literally, like, three, four minutes.

That's not that long.

Yeah, right.

Yeah, yeah, yeah.

So he stands in front of the machine with arms crossed and just stares at me.

And I just go through my workout.

And when I'm done.

See what I mean?

Now it's awkward.

Yeah, it is awkward.

So when I'm done, I look at him.

I'm like, how many plates you want to leave on here?

That was nice of you.

And he goes.

But also very insulting.

He goes, two.

And I go to each side.

He goes, no, two in total.

Okay, guys.

So I take them off, Right?

Very nice of you.

Right?

So now six plates have come off this machine.

I get all my stuff put in front of the machine.

I say, hey, man, just to be open with you, with me doing four plates on each side and you doing one plate on each side, you realize it took you just as long as it took me to finish this up as it did for us to the.

Plates off to put it away.

Yeah.

And he goes, what's your point, dude?

And I was like, okay, I can't talk to this guy.

Yeah, message got lost.

Okay.

Okay.

Yeah, so I get.

I get your point.

I don't.

I don't.

Don't ask to work in with me.

Right, Right.

Don't.

Don't do it.

I won't do it to you.

You don't do it to me.

All right, so.

So back to this real quick About.

About the American dream.

First topic that I wanted to get into.

House prices are way up.

No secret to anybody.

Yeah, way up.

Nowadays, you need 120,000 to $150,000 in income to comfortably afford a home.

Okay?

I don't even care about that, man.

You.

You need not only the income, but you need the down payment.

Well, that's.

And we're gonna.

That's gonna lead us right into number two.

But I mean, historically speaking, if you look at, you know, the averages of the income to house price ratios, right?

Historically speaking, it averages around five times, okay?

For the greater portion of a long time, it was roughly four times, right?

Nowadays it's seven times the income, Right?

The last time it was like this, obviously, right before the great financial crisis, right?

There was another house.

There was a housing bubble, right?

So obviously, income has not kept up.

And that's also not factoring in the fact that back in the Day, there was only one person in the house working.

It's only required.

Only required.

Right.

And it was so much easier to qualify.

Yeah.

And then there was.

Okay, now we have a dual income house.

Mommy and daddy both work.

Yes.

And now we're in the world where mommy and daddy both work, but daddy's got two jobs.

Exactly.

Three income households.

Right.

And you still barely get by.

Barely.

I mean, especially in Southern California.

And this is not just some people, this is a lot of Americans.

Yeah.

So if you're feeling the squeeze, you're feeling the pinch, you're feeling like, man, I really, I don't understand.

Dream that.

I know, I know, exactly.

This is the dream that we've all been sold on.

Right.

And that everyone is putting out their own social media and it's like, it makes people feel like crap that they're not there.

Oh, I want to be.

I want to be 100% honest with people.

Like, the only reason why I got here is I got lucky.

Was the, the right time, right place.

Right.

You bought in a time where the first of all, it was a good time for you to buy when it was the right time to buy the fir.

My first house.

Those two things coalescing in 2015.

Yeah, yeah.

Right.

And then I got very lucky in 2020.

Right.

I only chose to move into the area that I moved because I wanted my kids in a better school district.

Even then, questioning it, Remember, we were.

I was, we were on the fence.

Like, everyone's like, ah, I don't know, man.

I think prices might come down.

It was during the pandemic.

Right.

And literally we just pulled the trigger because it was, it was a decision made for my son.

And you, you made the decision independent of home prices and values.

You're like, this is just, this is for family.

Yeah, exactly.

Which, which is a great way to think about it because at the end of the day, you won't ever have any regrets.

But it also worked out economically.

Right.

And we always say, I mean, I know for the majority of people out there, buying a home is probably going to be one of the largest investments that they ever make.

Even though it shouldn't be looked at as an investment, it is, you should use as a utility, Your home should be used as utility, but it works.

So I would be in a majority of people's shoes, too.

If I was looking for home, I would not be able to afford it.

Yeah, No.

I legitimately would struggle in today's environment to justify it to myself.

I don't think it makes Sense.

And then number two in this equation, let's say you can't afford a home right now, right?

Rent prices have gone up, right.

Rents have increased across the nation.

Right now, I don't live in a very, like, sexy area, okay?

It's the suburbs, right?

There's not a lot of restaurants, nothing fancy.

It's very family oriented.

A lot of good schools around me, I'll say that.

Okay?

But I'm not.

If you don't have a family, you're not going to want to live where I live.

Okay?

Three bedroom apartment right now, where I live, $4,300 a month.

Yeah.

Old, not even new, dude.

My brother's apartment, he lives in Costa Mesa, close to Suckles Plaza.

It is one bedroom upstairs, downstairs, kitchen, living area, access to the parking garage.

So no direct part, no door garage.

Right.

$3,700 a month.

Insane, man.

Like, and then you wonder, you understand when people say, like, I gotta move out of the state.

Yeah, can't afford this anymore.

Well, and then you see these influencers who are like, I work four hours a day, comma, but I live in Bali.

And you're like, oh, well, yeah, yeah, it makes sense.

Columbia.

Cost of living in rent is a lot different, you know, and then you.

Gotta think of, you know, let's say Gen Z, right?

How much of their income is going towards rent.

I mean, we've talked about, we've had many episodes where we go over and how to start off with creating a budget for yourself and your family, right?

And you know, your rent or your mortgage in an ideal world shouldn't take up more than 30% of your income, right?

Yeah, but we really got to reevaluate those numbers 100%.

We do, but we're talking about living comfortably, right?

Like, that's what we're talking about here.

In an ideal world now I get, people will push the limits a little bit just to make sure they can get into a home.

But how, how many people out there are spending 50% on their income on rent?

The majority of Americans today.

Oh, yeah, absolutely.

Yeah.

Which this also feeds into.

Is the American dream dead now?

You can't even save enough to get ready to put down a down payment.

If it's not dead.

I would say the American dream, the fact that in the ether right now out there in the world, there is a debate which is constant and reoccurring in the market that we as Americans should not buy, we should rent because owning a home isn't worth it anymore.

That is a constant debate.

That's out there.

And a lot of influencers take advantage of this.

They weaponize it against you.

Because for most people, your principal, interest, taxes and insurance, your home mortgage payment with whatever money you can put down is going to be more expensive than rent.

And if it's cheaper to rent than it is to buy, then you rent.

And I'm not going to say that I haven't taken advantage of that before.

Before I bought the house we live in now in 2012, I think it was, I rented and I've talked about on the show before, a 580 square foot, junior one bedroom, glorified studio apartment.

And I originally started renting it for like 1475amonth.

@ the time, that was overwhelmingly expensive to me.

And then I think it got up to 1600, 1700 and it was 1800.

And I was like, this is crazy, but the principal, taxes and insurance in the place that I'm at now was considerably cheaper than what I was paying for rent at the time.

Right.

So I just made the switch when that opportunity.

But most people don't have that opportunity, at least not yet anyway.

Yeah.

And I mean, it's going to be hard to foreshadow this happening anytime soon, right?

Maybe, maybe not.

I think there are, and we'll get into that in the show today.

There are a lot of data points, at least in my mind, that are signaling that Americans have had enough.

And when Americans decide, the consumer decides they've had enough, that's when it doesn't matter about housing inventory or supply or the metrics that economists point to.

When 84% of Americans say it ain't a good time to buy right now.

So I'm just not going to buy.

Your supply goes up because no one's buying.

Right.

And values ultimately go down and inventory.

Definitely has gone up.

And then number three on this list.

Okay.

Is let's just say you are one of those people that say, okay, we're gonna, we're gonna rent, we're gonna try to save, we're gonna try to, you know, put a money down for a down payment.

But I don't want to wait to start a family because I don't know when that time will be.

Right.

Child care services through the roof, dude.

Yeah.

That, that never really hit me harder than when we had our son.

And I mean, every parent goes to this, but I had, I consider myself to be pretty financially strong relative to the market.

Yeah.

And I'll never forget when I'm like, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait.

My son's Going to daycare.

At the time, I think it was like 8am to like one, right?

Maybe one or two or something.

I think it's one.

He's only there half day.

And I was paying more for him than I was for, I think when I had a car payment for the car payment by almost double and I was like, wait, this is, this is wrong.

It's so wrong.

And I know, I know where you live, it's, it's a little bit skewed.

It's definitely more.

Right.

But even, even, even where I live, it's still really expensive as well.

But I know people from Irvine were driving out towards Anaheim Hills to drop their kids off at the kids at the school my kids were going to.

And it was, that was still expensive, but it was, it was literally less than or more than half of what they were paying over there in Irvine.

Right?

So child care services through the roof.

And that's just an added expense into your monthly expenses, you know what I mean?

That is keeping you from being able to save towards a down payment.

And it's not just childcare, man.

Like in order to keep up in, in most of these schools and these, these environments, it's like it was like childcare.

Plus my son goes to.

Come on.

Plus he has extracurricular activities.

And you start adding this stuff up, man, and like this stuff gets costly.

I know.

And then like if they have friends and they're all, let's say they're all in sports, it's like, bro, these after school programs, these kids playing sports, these coaches, these trainers, they're making money hand over fist.

I found out from a kid, from a kid's dad the other day who they play baseball, right?

I'm like, man, I told, I told my wife, I was like, you should be happy that our kid just needs a basketball and goes to a court and that's all he needs, right?

Yeah.

Baseball, to have a bat, all the gear, all that.

And the kid wants to be a pitcher.

You know how much these trainers are charging?

No idea.

Just for pitching.

For coaching or.

Coaching?

Yeah, yeah.

For one hour sessions.

A one hour session.

90 an hour.

Yeah.

Doesn't surprise me, man.

You know, and I'm like, I mean, look at the parent.

Look what the parents have to go through, right?

Just to.

And you.

And you have to do it just, just to keep up.

Know the crazy part of the flip side of this is that's probably somebody's second job.

And that $90 an hour is probably, you know, three, four hours a night.

For that person.

Right.

Multiple times a week.

And that's probably what they're doing as their third job.

Because that person's wife or husband probably works, just supplementing.

Yep.

And now he's supplementing.

He or she is supplementing their income with this.

Somebody we work with who played.

She played as a softball player in college, Supplements her income by doing coaching for pitching, too.

No kidding.

And she was telling me that she loves it.

She really.

You know, it's a whole.

I mean, it's a lot more.

I never pitched anything in my life, so I have no idea.

Yeah, but it's a lot more nuanced.

There's a lot of, like, hand placement technique with it.

You know, I respect it, but I'm sitting thinking to myself, and this is a person who we work with who goes home and does this, like, three, four nights a week.

M.

And.

And it's.

It's like the American dream was not working 24 hours a day, seven days a week.

I know, right?

But in order to have a comfortable lifestyle, bro, you.

We've seen.

We've all seen it in the 1950s, 1960s.

Dad comes home.

Hey, kids.

Dad's wearing a suit.

Yeah.

Yeah.

Right.

Driving his Buick or, you know, whatever Oldsmobile.

Driving into his cookie cutter home in the neighborhood.

Everybody in the neighborhood has the same home, same effective lifestyle.

Right.

Keeping up with the Joneses was because everybody had the same life.

Yeah, yeah, yeah.

You get in, your wife's a homemaker, she's making something, you know, for you to eat at dinner.

Usually all, like, whole real foods.

Yeah, absolutely.

You know, maybe something that's fancy there.

Maybe some Bisquick or some Jello or something.

Ooh.

You know, we're having fun tonight.

Yeah.

Everybody got.

Somebody got a color TV in the street.

It was amazing.

It was cool.

That was the new technology.

Kids are playing till the streetlights come on.

Yeah.

But everybody had, like, the same kind of thing.

Like, it was.

Everybody was the same.

It wasn't so far out of reach.

And a millionaire was.

Oh, my God.

Yep.

Oh, my.

Now you tell somebody you're a millionaire, they're like, so.

Yeah.

So.

Yeah.

What do you mean?

My wife and I, we have this joke all the time when sometimes, you know, when you go to pick up your kids after school and, you know, parents, just small talk, they go, what do you do?

What are you doing this weekend?

You know, like, what do you guys got going on?

You guys going out of town this weekend?

That's such a common question now.

And my wife and I, we always joke with the other parents, like, you know, I'm just going to enjoy my mortgage this weekend, stay home, enjoy this.

Mortgage, enjoy my mortgage is one of my favorite things to do.

Honestly, it's, it's super underrated.

But this, this is the, this is the messed up part, too.

Like, and I, I, I recognize that I'm in a bit of a unique situation.

My wife stays at home all day long with our son.

Yeah.

She takes him from point A to point B, and it's taxing.

She gets, like, three hours of him at school in this day program.

And then she goes from that to Kuman, and then, like, all the other extracurricular activities that he does, and it's all focused on him.

He has nine days off for Thanksgiving.

Right.

Tomorrow.

And, and she's got, like, an entire nine days planned for him from, like, Legoland and Disneyland and museums and friends.

And so I get home from work all week, and I travel for work, too.

You know, this, I don't want to go anywhere.

I want to enjoy that mortgage.

Yeah, exactly.

And she wants to get the hell out of there.

She does not want to be around the mortgage.

Right, right, right, right.

It just makes sense.

And it's tough because you just, one of you has to sacrifice to make the other one happy.

Yeah.

Definitely has to be that balance.

And then.

Okay, so the last part about this American Dream debate that I wanted to bring up was student loan payments.

One of the most debated things I see in the younger generation today is, is that valuable?

I'm seeing more and more schools.

You know, I think I saw there were some schools out there that was waving tuition for families that were making $200,000 or less.

That's becoming a little bit.

That's the poverty line now.

Yeah, exactly.

$200,000 less.

Yeah, right.

But some of the numbers I have on this man is staggering.

Right.

So the average person in the US is walking out of college with approximately $38,000 in student loan debt.

Okay.

Bro, that was less than one year of my student loans.

Right, I know, I, I know, right?

That higher education.

But that means they're walking out and stepping into the real world with a $600 payment.

Okay.

Yeah.

When I, when I graduated, eating in loans were $1,100 a month.

Yeah, that's a lot.

And that, so that's eating back then.

That's eating into everyone's ability.

Right.

To save up for the down payment.

Eating into what they can afford.

Right.

So check this out.

And I think I've referenced This on the show before, over the last 50 years, okay.

In 1970, college tuition cost approximately for room and board.

All that twelve hundred dollars.

Okay.

A year.

A year.

Jesus.

In the seventies.

Okay, now, now, now we're talk.

Now we're talking 24,000.

That's an increase of seventeen hundred percent.

Yeah.

Okay.

Jesus.

Wages from then until now have only increased 547%, which is a lot.

I mean, clearly not enough, my friend.

A third?

Yeah, man.

Yeah.

You know, so it's like it's, it's all off balance.

So.

And we're only bringing this up because, look, people are going to have to get more creative.

You're going to have to learn things outside of just your trade.

Right.

You're going to have to learn how to invest.

Right.

I mean, you're gonna have to learn how to maybe enhance your skills and pick up a second job or do a 5 to 9 that we routinely talk about on the show.

Right?

And it's just.

I don't think the American dream is dead.

You're just gonna have to.

Everybody's gonna have to get a little bit more creative in order to get there.

Yeah, I think so.

I think that's true.

And I think as we start going through some of the metrics on tonight's show, you'll understand why so much of this has been debilitating to most Americans without them even realizing it.

It's been a slow, painful bleed over time.

And a lot of people who say, hey, Chris, you guys are always doom and gloom in the show.

You guys are always so negative.

This ain't your show.

Honestly, tell me I was wrong about anything I said.

It's all true.

Real people are really dealing with this.

Yeah.

So let's talk a little bit about inflating numbers, shall we?

Oh, inflating numbers, but misrepresenting things that we say are true when in fact they might not be.

Okay, well, for their own benefit, you know it.

If I ran an administration, I would want my numbers to look good.

I mean, you would manipulate it just a little bit.

I wouldn't say manipulate.

I would.

I would give it the puff daddy.

How.

What is it?

What makes it the puffy?

You know, give it the puff at the end of the quarter, you blow it up a little bit.

You know what I mean?

Yeah.

I got some data on this too, for you.

Okay, let's get into it.

So this from another one of my favorite X accounts, Bravos Research.

The US government has been hiring an average of 50,000 workers per month for the past two years.

50,000 workers per month for two years straight.

Yikes.

That's a lot.

Which is one of the highest rates in 30 years.

This hiring spree has strengthened the labor market, likely delaying a recession.

I hope.

What I'm trying to say now is coming into focus a little bit, but high levels of government job creation have rarely prevented recessions.

So if you're in office and you're in a very stigmatized, polarizing political climate, and, you know, two years ago in 2022, that a recession was likely, you get together with your team, your cabinet, and you brainstorm ideas, and some guy in the back gets called on.

And that guy in the back got crayons.

He got crayons.

He's smart.

Yeah.

But he's like, I know what to do.

And everyone's, like, waited on bated breath for this guy to say what he knows to do, and he goes, let's just hire everybody.

Well, what is that going to do for them?

You see, unemployment.

Okay.

Yeah.

Is one of the two responsibilities.

The mandates of the Fed, which we can't control.

Right, Right.

But if we can control the numbers they look at to see if they're in a recession or not, then we can control the perception of a recession.

Right.

Because if the numbers for employment were to actually come down, then the Fed would have had to cut their rates a lot sooner than they did.

Mm.

Right.

In response, easing the.

It would have eased the tension and the pain that all of us have been feeling and dealing with, because it's one of their dual mandates.

Like you said, they have to care about employment.

So you control employment so that they don't focus on it.

Which is why over the course of the last two years, we saw all these big companies laying people off at a cadence that was very visible every episode.

We were saying, this team laid off 10%, this team laid off 15%.

Yeah, yeah.

And it was happening left and right.

And we're like, how the hell are the job numbers not moving?

Well, now, you know, it was being manipulated politically.

Yeah.

It could happen for a number of.

It could also happen for multiple reasons.

Right.

It could be to make sure that the Fed continues their course and keep rates where they were.

It could also be because the administration at that time wanted to produce positive numbers.

But the key thing to take home from that sentiment was the last sentence.

These efforts by the government.

Job creation.

Right.

Rarely have prevented recessions.

So in reality, it almost always certainly leads to a recession.

It just takes a little longer to get there, which is part of the reason why we've been talking about recession.

And for the guy with my DMs who's like, Chris, you're all, you're all.

You're Peter Schiff.

You keep calling for recession.

Sooner or later that broken clock is right.

And it's like, okay, yeah, except now you know why we've been calling for it and you haven't been seeing it.

That's why.

Mm, okay.

It's not, it's not that hard.

Moving on from another one of my favorite X accounts to look at from Darth Powell.

Love that.

Yeah, Half the fucking jobs were just Biden trying to hide a market collapse with debt.

And in post production.

We're going to come up in here and we're going to drop this chart for you, which is going to show you a pretty significant chart in my mind, which looks at the Fred data, the Federal Reserve Bank's data looks at employment and it looks at all employment government, and it compares the two and it shows you very clearly how the administration went on a hiring spree.

And in doing so, they added a ton of government jobs over the course of four and a half years.

So much of those jobs were used to prop up those numbers and hide the real issue from the Federal Reserve.

So if you can follow that logically.

Right.

You can also see a world where this isn't just being done with the job numbers, not at all.

This is also happening with the inflation numbers.

You're under reporting inflation where you can.

Right?

And they have.

I can't even begin to tell.

I think it's over.

They've changed the way they've calculated inflation 30 times.

Okay.

They no longer compare things like if, let's just say smartphones now compared to smartphones in the future.

They don't do that.

They like products because they want to measure behavior.

They understand consumer behavior.

If something costs more, they'll adopt something cheaper.

Right.

Even better example is you.

Do you not remember when the Biden administration literally came out and changed the definition of recessionary economy?

Oh, yeah.

Used to be two successive quarters of negative GDP growth, right?

They're like, oh no wait, it's also got to have negative GDI growth too.

Never in the course of history has anybody ever spoken about GDI in the context of recessionary economy.

Now all of a sudden it's like, oh, there's this asterisk.

Where was that?

Where was the last 50 years?

So if they under report in the inflation numbers, right.

Guess what, guess what, they don't have to adjust as much the cost of living that they have to pay out for Social Security.

And let's not forget, for everything.

For everything that they have to pay for that adjusts for cost of living, all the federal workers, all of it.

They don't have to adjust the wages for any of them.

And let's not forget the recession definition.

If we go with gdi, that convenient number, that convenient extra focal point they put in.

Yeah.

We just came out of two years of artificial stimulus that we provided everybody else where we knew it was public knowledge.

People were generally making more money on unemployment and getting the stimulus check the stimmies than they were when they were otherwise working.

Yeah.

So gdi, your gross domestic income was, of course, manipulated.

Oh, yeah.

100%.

And if you think we're BSing about any of this, there's a little fun fact.

Do we actually abbreviate bullshitting now that.

We do on the show?

Yeah, you're right.

I don't know what I was thinking.

I thought I was in the office for a second.

If you think we're bullshitting.

If you think.

If you think we're bullshitting about any of this, okay, do us a favor, right?

Why don't you go up, go and look up the raw data that they use to calculate these figures, and you'll be.

You'll be impressed.

You won't be able to find it.

They don't provide the raw data that they use.

Yeah.

Why would you do that?

That'd be honest and transparent.

Yeah.

What.

Why would I do that?

The data, the raw data that they use to calculate inflation.

They don't provide it to you.

Side.

You don't go to magicians magic shows and see how the tricks work.

Okay.

Yeah.

You just get.

You're in awe of the results.

Okay.

Exactly.

What are you doing?

Remember those.

Remember those shows back in the day where they.

There was like, this magician who had, like, a mask on and he reveal the tricks.

Reveal all the tricks.

They do that on social media now, but they do it, like, in a comedic format.

Oh, they do one guy, like, I.

Remember loving those episodes.

I'm like, oh, I need more.

I want more of this.

Yeah.

But it really.

It really stole something away from it, you know?

Like, really.

Yeah, the magic's completely lost on me now.

Now I'm like, you're just a creative person.

You're not a magician.

Yeah.

I'm trying to find.

Yeah.

How do they get.

Yeah, there's.

Sometimes they're so creative.

Sometimes Blaine is crazy.

David Blaine's crazy.

But I also Think like, he takes the illusionist act too far.

Yeah.

It worries me.

I don't want my son ever watching that.

I'm like, you don't need.

Yeah.

Like he's, he's, he's a sociopath.

Just ignore him, son.

You know, I mean, like, he's not normal.

Yeah, yeah.

He, he's going hard at trying to get girls and this is what happens.

You know, I'd rather just teach you how to talk to girls.

Yeah.

Just, just focus on being a good person.

You don't need to be this guy.

There you go.

You know what I mean?

Yeah.

Yeah.

So let's go on to the Kabisi letter.

I think this is also indicative, this moving to the treasuries now.

The 30 year treasury yield has surpassed the Fed funds rate for the first time since Q4 of 2022.

This comes as a 30 year treasury yield has risen approximately 60 basis points, or.60% over the last two months, which is a massive move for those of you who are uninitiated.

At the same time, the Fed has cut rates two times from 5.5% down to 4.75% in previous economic cycles.

Whenever the yield curve has turned positive, a recession in the US occurred within months.

And this is why we spent so much time over the course of the last year and a half, two years, talking about getting out of the yield curve inversion because we knew that was almost always a recessionary precursor.

Oh, yeah.

But yet, you know, of course, we're negative.

We're Peter Schiff just calling it how it is.

Yeah.

I'm just, I'm just saying what it is.

However, this indicator can be proven wrong for the first time in history if a soft landing is achieved.

Let me explain that to you.

Okay.

The indicator that we have pointed to, that we said that we expressed concern on this show for the course of better course of two years.

Right.

That we finally got out of which typically precedes recessionary economies.

If we were to hit this magical soft landing that the Fed and the government and everybody is hoping for.

Okay.

You would be doing something that has never been done.

Oh, yeah.

Really?

Exactly.

We are all hoping for the soft.

This soft landing rhetoric has been everywhere.

It always starts off that way.

Right?

Yeah, yeah.

It's literally like a Goldilocks scenario.

Right.

But you got.

Everyone or any Fed president that has ever successfully achieved what they call a soft landing has also admitted to being extremely lucky that it panned out.

Okay.

And I don't, I don't.

I think it's a different thing, I think.

Here's what I.

Look at it.

Okay?

We all know what a unicorn looks like, right?

Yeah.

We've all read stories about unicorns, right?

Right.

Right.

You ever fucking seen one?

I haven't seen it.

No.

You might have seen a horse with a horn on its forehead.

Yeah, yeah.

You might have seen a craft, you know, a beautifully crafted television show with a unicorn on it.

We know it's not a real unicorn, right?

Because we know those fucking things don't actually exist.

Right.

You ever see, like, a child story with a unicorn has wings and shit and it's flying over like, you're like, oh, my God.

Unicorn flies.

Amazing.

Yeah.

But you know you're not going to go outside and see a fucking unicorn flying over your house, right?

At least you hope so.

You're not going to see a south landing.

Okay?

Yeah.

That little fucker that's got wings and flying over your house.

That little soft landing unicorn.

That thing doesn't exist in real life.

Right.

And I don't care what you present me, what data points you present me.

I know what I'm feeling.

I know what.

What the listeners of this show have been feeling because they've been talking to us for, you know, the last two years.

I know we've been in a recession.

Right.

I don't care that.

I don't need to see the data points to prove.

Yeah.

National Bureau of Labels, labor statistics.

Don't worry.

We got you.

We're in a recession, America.

Yeah, I know.

Y'all been quiet over there.

We got it from here.

Thanks.

Yeah, I know somebody in the office somewhere over there is going like, fuck.

Why will the government just shut the fuck up so we can do our job?

There's one guy over there just riding up the report on how we've been in a recession.

He's just.

He's.

He's hyper, focused on every last word.

We got it for you.

We've been in a recession.

It's done.

Gdi.

What?

How am I going to.

How am I going to flip this?

You know what soft landing is tantamount to in celebrity gossip speak?

What is it when people say, you know, said we're not getting divorced.

We're having a conscious uncoupling.

Oh.

We made it real about this.

Yeah.

We're having a conscious coupling.

We're separating.

Yeah, we're separating.

Yeah.

And you're like, what?

No, you're.

You're.

You're divorced.

No, no, no, no, no.

We're not doing that.

No, that's Harsh.

We would never do that.

Right?

We're just separating consciously and with intention.

Yeah.

That's a divorce, dude.

No, it's not.

It's different.

This is that.

This is that red table talk.

Yeah, that's what this is.

Yeah.

I just want to see Will and Jada actually get into a real fight in the.

I stopped loving you 25 years ago.

Yeah.

I never did love you.

I love Tupac.

Yeah.

Well, I don't know if we're getting the full story on Tupac.

Oh, yeah, I've seen.

I've seen a couple of audition casting tapes that say otherwise.

Yeah.

Oh, yeah.

Those are hard to stomach.

I mean, I couldn't believe it.

I was like, is this the same person?

I have a theory that during the autopsy of Tupac Shakur that, you know, when the mortician comes in and they start cleaning you up and everything else and they've done the autopsy and all that stuff and they come in and they try to prep you for the funeral.

Well, yeah.

What you about to do?

I think they were cleaning his body up and making sure there was no blood anywhere.

And the tea on Thug Life came off.

I just peeled off.

It's like, hug life.

What?

UG life.

Anyway, so let's go on to the housing market like we foreshadowed earlier on in the show.

54.

According to Resi Club, 54 of the nation's 200 largest housing markets are now above pre pandemic inventory.

It was just 17 markets last year.

Okay.

That is a big ass.

Three times as many markets.

Yeah.

Are now at inventory levels above pre pandemic numbers.

The inventory status of these, of these MSAs, these areas are moving.

And I've got a beautiful chart which I'll put up later that shows this.

They are moving.

And they are moving in a visible, palpable way.

So for those of you out there going, how, Chris?

But the housing market data says otherwise.

It lags by six months.

Yeah, exactly.

Six months from now, you're going to be like, God damn those guys.

The higher standard.

Not only good looking, they fucking knew it.

They know what they're talking about.

They knew it.

And I still haven't seen that fucking unicorn soft landing fly over my house.

Soft landing.

What a bunch of shit.

Should we take a moment to appreciate that we are cynical, negative people now, or do we.

No, no.

We're finding we got to put a silver on this.

We got to have to have fun while we're doing it.

I feel like we're putting like a shit colored Lining around it?

No, it's the, it's the truth.

What are you going to not report on the truth?

You're not going to report on the truth.

I mean, look, if, if you were somebody that has been waiting on the sidelines, like you kind of need some of this to happen.

Right.

You need bad news before you get good news.

I do think it's good news.

Yeah.

I think, I think this is the calm before the storm.

But I do think that the storm will bring some beautiful flowers.

Look at that.

The only, the only problem.

Here's the only problem.

If you're kind of, if you're waiting for a huge, let's say, real estate market crash.

I don't know if you're going to get that.

Okay.

I don't think you're going to get, you know, 2008, 2009, 2010, great financial crisis type type numbers.

Right.

Where you're going, where you're just going to get, you know, close to 2 million houses just put online.

Right.

With an asterisk here.

Unless there's some catastrophic economic event.

Yeah.

Or some geopolitical event that happens that causes that kind of thing.

Right.

But I mean, as of right now, I got serious delinquencies.

That means, meaning 90 days past due on mortgages or HELOCs.

Okay.

Those right now are sitting at less than 1%.

Okay.

They are.

But I will say that delinquencies in the credit card and automotive worlds are rising at a pretty palpable case.

They are in that.

And that, that's, you know, that needs to happen before because people will tend to pay for their homes and the mortgage and the helocs and they'll, they'll default on those before they do their homes.

Yep.

But for reference, in 2009-2011, that figure was somewhere between 8 to 9%.

So you're going to really need to see that number go up if we're, if we're headed towards an event like that.

I agree things aren't wildly out of control, but I think the precursors to being wildly out of control or at least having some type of meaningful change are there now.

Going to Nick Gurley, another X account that I follow and I love his name.

He is associated with Reventure, I think is the name of his firm.

Mortgage demand is down 50% from the same week in 2019.

Half.

Half the demand.

No post election bounce, which would be a more normal thing, even though we've seen some interesting movement in the treasury markets because a lot of the unconventional picks that the incumbent president is picking are really not getting a huge change in the housing market.

Even despite that, a lot of things are going the right way.

Sellers better start cutting prices or else it's going to be a long winter for them.

They're going to wait.

And for some perspective, I did some digging to put things in perspective.

The number of mortgages purchase applications for the week ending November 20th was 49.7% below the same week in 2019.

55.2% below 2020, 51.9% below 2021, 22% below 2022, and 1.7% below 2023.

Wow.

So you are seeing a very visible curve go the other way.

It's a real thing, but let's go deeper, shall we?

Oh, I love it.

So deep.

I love when I go deeper.

Well, the one thing you have to realize as a home buyer, seller, investor, realtor, or mortgage broker is that we're dealing with the worst home buyer sentiment on record right now.

This again from Nick Gurley from Reventure.

What does that.

What does that mean?

So the home buyer sentiment, if you.

Were to go out and pull people, the general consumer like, hey, how do you feel about the housing market?

What's your sentiment?

Yeah, how do you.

How do you feel about this market that you're in?

Looking to buy right now.

And usually the question is framed in one simple way.

Is now a good time to buy or is now a bad time to buy?

So would you.

How would you categorize the current climate?

Would you con.

Would you categorize it as a seller's market or a buyer's market or nothing, really?

Well, don't take my word for it.

According to the University of Michigan Sentiment Survey, 84% of Americans say it's a bad time to buy a home in late 2024, compared to only 15% who say it's a good time?

We've never, never in history that we've tracked this metric.

Seen homebuyer sentiment that bad before.

Wow.

So I would say if 84% of Americans feel like now's a bad time to buy, I would say that probably is a meaningful problem.

Right.

I mean, there's three parts to this problem.

The prices are out of control.

Right.

Rates are too high and incomes haven't really kept up.

So to answer your question, there's an inflection point where sentiment moves faster than the actual signals in the market.

I would say right now it's neither a buyer or a seller's market, per se, but we are very quickly Moving to a buyer's market.

I agree.

Yeah.

Our friends over at Redfin had some data on October's housing numbers because obviously we're still in November right now and the median days on the market is now at 41 days.

That's seven days longer than a year ago.

So a year ago, you know, what was that?

So 34 days.

Right.

It used to be 34 days on the market.

That math in your head.

Yeah.

Real quick.

I was like, oh, shit, I can.

See your eyes moving.

Yeah.

But now 41 days.

So properties are staying out longer on the market.

I think there's 1.8 million homes on the market right now.

That's like what, three and a half, four months supply.

Yeah.

Right.

And to again, refresh six months supply is probably more average to normal.

More average to normal.

Right.

So I mean, if you do want these figures to change noticeably, you're going to need that number to continue to go up, which you're going to get.

I mean, you're clearly seeing all the precursor metrics suggesting that that's going to happen.

Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah.

And then just to put it in perspective, I, you know, I'm old enough to say that I remember when rates were a lot higher.

Okay.

I'm that guy.

You young uns, you got no idea.

That's only one part of the problem.

It is, but let's talk about perspective, okay?

Home values are part of the problem.

Income's part of the problem.

There's a lot of, a lot of problems here within the macro environment that all cause this problem per se.

But even when mortgage rates were 18% in the early 1980s.

Okay, before you were born.

Yeah.

Did you make me duck face at me right now?

What was that?

No, I'm buying.

Why did you do that?

I'm thinking about how to respond to you.

That was very off putting, Boomer.

Why'd you do that?

No, I didn't do that.

He just duck faced me in the middle of the show.

I did it.

So awkward.

You think?

What are you thinking about right now?

I'm thinking about how I'm going to get back at you for this, Boomer.

You know, I have a sister who does duck face in every photo.

I respect her.

I want to slap the out of her.

I used, I used to.

I used to be.

God damn.

What was that Ben Stiller movie?

Zoolander, right?

Was he Blue Steel?

Oh, Blue Steel.

That was me.

No, Blue Steel, that was me all the time.

Just like.

Really?

That'll be the thumbnail.

I'm Gonna do it for the thumbnail.

It looks so posed.

I never got it.

I didn't know it was intentional.

I want it to be posed like, you know how Kanye does the whole I'm not gonna smile thing.

Yeah.

I'm gonna go.

I'm gonna go above and beyond to like, you know, do this.

I don't want to burst any bubbles here.

And I know that you have a strong admiration for Kanye West.

No, no, no, no, no.

Hold on.

Don't.

You don't.

Don't do that.

I look appreciation.

I did not said.

Do you know how you appreciate it?

Do you know how he used to.

I wouldn't know that because I don't follow him like you do.

You clearly have like this mentor, mentee relationship.

I've never seen somebody more plugged in to what's going on culturally than Kanye.

Your boy.

Than you do.

Listen, I don't want to dis.

I just don't think Kanye is sane.

He's not.

Okay.

I don't.

Yeah.

I'm not co signing anything he does.

And just to be clear, because I know you respect him and look up to him so much.

He's not crazy in a get rich, like, intelligent way.

I.

I don't.

But no, he is crazy in a.

Get rich and lose everything.

He is a genius as far as, you know, music.

Yeah.

There's your admiration.

I get it.

You don't want to co sign it too hard because then it's creepy.

Right.

The orchestra at his concerts, it's amazing.

Yeah, you would know.

I did.

No, I've been to one.

It was amazing.

I've been to a couple Kanye concerts.

Really?

Fantastic.

Yeah.

Which one did you go to?

Which album?

Do you know?

You remember them?

Oh, you went to the Watch the Throne.

Yeah, that's right.

That's the one.

That's.

That's the one I feel like.

I feel like I missed out on.

That was.

I've been to a few concerts, not a lot.

I've never been a big concert fan.

I don't like being in herds of people.

Well, well, for if.

For hip hop concerts, it's never the same.

That music is made for you to enjoy in your car.

It's not made for a venue like that.

Except for Kanye because he does bring out an orchestra.

Yeah, well, he did and it was fantastic.

And honestly, the one problem was they were serving pizzas there and I was on a diet because I was trying to get lean back then, which go a whole different off topic thing.

I eat like trash right now and I'm in bigger, leaner shape now.

It's crazy.

It's not fair.

Testosterone does a lot of things for you, man.

The gear is really helping.

The gear is a real benefit.

Yeah.

People are like, ah, you still got to work hard.

No, you don't.

That's a lie.

Not that hard.

Imagine if you were, like, locked in.

Locked in.

Like, you were on your physique competition days.

What would you be?

Oh, it'd be over.

Oh, my God.

Yeah, I would be such an arrogant.

Well, a more arrogant.

Yeah, it would be bad, dude.

Like, yeah.

I'd be the guy in the gym.

You want help with that?

Oh, you need a spot.

Yeah, you're doing it right.

I wouldn't even ask the working.

I'd be like, get off.

You know?

Doesn't look like you're activating your rear delts, bro.

I must take that plate off that.

You know, you don't need that, honestly.

Yeah, you want these Boulder shoulders.

Got you.

I wear these big shirts because I don't want to tear the small ones.

Right?

I don't want them.

I don't.

I don't make you all feel embarrassed, I hear.

Have you ever seen those videos of what's.

What's Your boy's name?

Mr.

Olympia?

The new, like, the big guy.

Now bump.

Chris Bumstead bumps, like, when he's, like.

He's working on.

In a hoodie and whatnot.

Then, like, halfway through his workout, he just takes off the hoodie, and you're.

Like, God, that's a whole cultural thing.

God damn.

You probably can't relate to.

It's called a pump cover.

It's called.

Oh, really?

Yeah.

And that's the whole thing.

Like, girls do it.

Guys do it.

They go in with the hoodies.

I do this, too.

I'm not gonna lie.

Oh, you.

Oh, you take it off once you got the pump going.

Well, you take it off once you get warm enough and you're sweaty enough and, like, you don't want.

You got the pump going.

It's a pump cover.

Yeah.

You got to cover it up.

Yeah, yeah, yeah.

And then when.

You know when it's out there, because here's the truth.

We all have body dysmorphia.

We all look in the mirror and be like, God damn it, why are.

Those mirrors at the gym so much better?

Overhead lighting.

It's got to be, right?

The overhead lighting is spectacular in gyms.

It's made to make you feel like you look better in a gym.

So you go back there and work out.

They know what they're doing, but they.

Know unless you go to Planet Fit.

Is that.

Is that why you always rock a hat?

Huh?

Is that why you always rock a hat?

No, that's part of my.

Don't fucking talk to me.

The overhead lighting.

You don't want it.

You don't want the.

No.

That's why I don't get in convertibles.

People like Chris, you didn't get a sunroof on the Rivian.

I'm like, yeah, it sucks.

Yeah, no one's going to see my scalp today.

I'm so sorry.

Thank God.

Because pre.

Pre hair transplant, I.

It's like.

It.

Look, I didn't have any hair when I was in the sun.

Yeah, it was very embarrassing.

No, it wasn't that bad.

I think you're too hard on yourself.

Yeah, well, I've seen worse.

All right, stop getting us off topic.

Even when mortgage rates were 18% in the early 1980s, home buyer sentiment was better than it was today.

So indicating a level of inertia in the home buying process right now that is at a historic level in nature.

But to Said's point earlier, and again from Nick Gurley at Reventure, I thought this was a fascinating thread, hence why I'm sharing so much of it.

The main problem here, it's not rate, it's prices.

Prices.

Yep.

Home prices relative to inflation and income have never, never in history, not once been higher.

Home price levels in 2024 are literally unprecedented.

So has there been any movement on the 40 year mortgage front at all that you know about?

No, but I wasn't finished with the whammy.

Oh, him.

I had another one I was pausing for.

Can't help yourself.

Let it out there.

I cannot finish it.

They're even higher than they were in the 2006 bubble.

Adjusted for inflation, home pump home prices are higher now.

Right now, right now.

That's insane.

Just insane than any time in history.

Unprecedented.

So I'm saying, so that pinch people are feeling, the fact that people shouldn't feel bad that, you know, why can't I.

Why can't I get into a home?

We literally got two, three jobs.

And I have to take a pause here to say a couple things to you that are really important for pop culture purposes.

Shout out to my boy Arun.

You know that Drake is now suing Universal Music Group, saying that they artificially inflated.

Yeah.

Kendrick Lamar's music with bots.

And that he was.

He was under that same label too, right?

Yeah.

Yeah.

So it's like you're damaging my Career, dude, that.

That lawsuit, I don't know of the figures out yet.

That's going to be a hefty price tag, like, probably like north of 500 million.

You, Drake, why are you doing that?

Why not?

Because you lost reputationally in a rap battle, bro.

What do you.

He.

He called him.

I can't even say it on that.

That's going to get the show flag.

This does.

Yeah, yeah, yeah.

We're not.

He called him something that he shouldn't call him that dealing with a younger age demographic.

Yes.

Yeah.

That's even low.

Yeah.

I think everyone knows.

Everyone knows.

Yeah.

So it's like, I mean, he's singing in A minor.

Yeah, a minor, right.

I mean, I'm not saying that I agree with it, but, like, also, okay, then you sue.

Then you sue Kendrick Lamar for defamation.

You don't sue the label.

Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah.

You know what I mean?

Like, but, you know, everyone goes after the deeper pockets.

I think Kendrick Lamar's got some pretty deep pockets, bro.

Not like.

Not like the label, bro.

What are you talking about?

You know, Drake knows how much money the labels made off of him.

Yeah, right.

I mean, I think it would be a weaker move if you went after Kendrick.

Then at that point you're like, come on, man.

It's pretty weak.

No matter how you do it, it's pretty weak.

Yeah, yeah, yeah.

And seriously, stop.

Stop diverting the show.

Say this is the third time you did this.

You brought it up hyper disrespectful.

According to Yahoo Finance, buying a home in 2024 costs 42% more than renting one.

To say's point earlier.

Ouch.

Yeah.

In case you didn't get the sentiment of the show, the theme of this episode, you know, because you'll never get this.

La la la la la.

That's what it feels like.

That's what it feels.

And I feel bad.

I feel.

I genuinely feel bad.

I know people that are, like, waiting to buy their first home and waiting to start a family until they buy their first home.

I know some pretty high earners that are doing that.

Yeah, yeah.

Life, liberty, in pursuit of the Kazakh dream.

Yeah.

Anyway, on paper, owning a home is almost always more expensive than renting, so not a huge outlier thing to think about, but about 14% more on average.

After factoring in expenses like insurance, taxes, and upkeep, that's probably a reasonable expectation.

I'm going to pay 15% ish more to buy and own a home than I would renting one.

And that probably justifies the difference in why you would own a home versus not.

That's justifiable.

Right.

But the difference has grown much more extreme in recent years as just about all homeownership costs have ballooned.

How extreme?

Exact cost estimates vary.

But recently the premium for homeownership has been at least 35% over renting, a level that's near historic highs and is likely to persist.

I mean, at some point they're going to have to.

The problem is getting any.

Anything passed through Congress.

It's.

It takes way too long and before they could ever get anything passed, the damage has already been done.

But something needs to come up ASAP to regulate rent control because people aren't going to be able to afford homes.

So rent control is seen as a widely like.

It's very.

The problem is politicized.

Right.

There's a whole like Republican Democrat shtick as it relates to it.

State sovereignty really wants to regulate that how they want to.

In certain Democratic states typically have a more hefty rent control.

California, great example here.

Baseline.

I don't necessarily hate it.

The problem with rent control is once you institute it, backing off causes way more damage to the markets.

And when you first institute it, it causes a tremendous amount of damage to the markets.

You have to be in rent control and have it play out for a longer period of time for it to have real meaningful value to the markets.

Yeah.

So you got to hope your local governments, you know, tackle this first.

And a great example of what changing it does.

Look at New York and look what happened with Signature bank and out there and New York Community Bank.

That was in large part a byproduct of the resultant changes in rent control and that affect underwriting income produces the value.

And if you don't understand what I'm talking about, you're like, Chris, this is crazy.

What talking about.

Don't worry about it.

It's not a big deal.

We've done past shows on it.

For all you need to know for right now is rent control near term bad, rent control long term, arguably good if it's done well, crafted right.

And effective in the market.

And that can be very difficult to do because you got to go through iterations where it doesn't work.

Arguably good or not.

Definitely needed.

Definitely needed, man.

I mean, just, I'm, I'm speaking for the people out there that are just want to like, hurry up and get into a home and.

Because I, I know people that have been.

Have rented homes and they've had their rent increased by like 20 yeah, but.

That'S, that's a, that's an unfortunate capitalistic byproduct of how expensive home values are.

Yes.

Home values really draw the line to where you can rent things.

You know what I mean?

Yeah, And I get it.

They, they want to make sure that the rent is covering their mortgage expenses and at the end of the day, like it is an investment property for them.

But I'm just thinking, like, I wholeheartedly.

Believe you need a correction, a massive correction in home values.

People don't want to hear that.

They don't like that because you're not.

Going to get the correction in income.

You're not.

It's, I mean, not soon enough, not fast enough, you know, which is crazy, given you see, you know how much just the s and P500 has increased over the last, you know, however many years, hitting all time highs.

And you're like, I mean, the companies out there seem to be doing pretty damn well.

Okay, well, in the interest of time, I want to get you a little section I have lovingly labeled the Saeed told you so section.

Okay.

Where after each one of these reports on some economic trends, you get to say, I told you so.

So I'll just look right at the camera and be like, I told you so.

Yeah, you've got a green jacket for a reason, right?

Okay, let's go.

This is in part why you gotta.

Give me a green jacket.

I'm gonna get you one Indochina.

One that they don't make to the right size.

Come on.

Really?

I was thinking H and M, maybe Zara, if you want to.

I don't fit into anything.

Yeah, you ain't got the booty for that.

All right, According to the Kabisi letter, and this one is going to be polarizing US Serious delinquencies are skyrocketing.

Serious.

Okay, on what product?

The share of US credit card debt that is delinquent 90 plus days jumped to 11.1% in Q3 of 2024, the highest level since 2011.

This is the fifth consecutive quarter of increases, the longest streak since the 2008 financial crisis.

This share even exceeds the 2020 peak and has been rising at a pace only seen during recessions.

I told you so.

There it is.

There's number one.

At the same time, credit card debt hit its $1.17 trillion new level, a new record.

This means a whopping approximate $130 billion of credit card debt is on the verge of default.

US consumers are drowning in credit card debt.

Hit him one more time.

Saeed, I told you so.

And it pains me to say it, but yeah, I mean.

I mean, I think what I was really alluding to back in the day was that bankruptcies are going to fucking skyrocket.

Well, to that point, the 90 day auto delinquency rate is higher than the peak reached in 2009.

Piggybacking on the last I told you so.

Yeah.

Okay.

Double down on the same one.

Same one, yeah.

You did get two in the first one, so.

I did.

Yeah.

I guess that's kind of appropriate.

I mean, you're being humble about your.

I don't.

Like, I don't.

This doesn't make me feel good, though.

But this is you.

This is bad news.

This is what you do.

No, the cameras are off.

No, this is what you do.

I told those motherfuckers, but they wouldn't listen to me.

That's what he does.

I'm just telling you guys what he does.

When you're not here and the mics aren't hot, Saeed walks around here.

Why doesn't anybody want to listen to me?

That's what he says.

That's what he says.

Damn it.

How does it feel to be authentic on the show for the first time?

First time you're going to go back on Fargo and tell him that I've changed the bro.

He's back.

I got him.

I converted him, Jeff.

All right.

According to Kabisi Letter, US Credit rejection rates are spiking.

People applying for credit and not getting them.

The average rejection rate for credit cards hit 22.9% in October, the most in at least 11 years, according to the Fed Credit Access Survey.

Meanwhile, the credit card rejection rate rose.

I'm sorry, that was all credit.

The credit card rejection rate specifically rose to 20%, the highest rate in 2014.

Think about this.

20% of the people applying for credit cards are getting denied one out of every five calls.

The guy typing your information in on the screen that you call and give it to is like, ooh, yeah, I'm sorry, Mr.

Saeed.

Omar, you're getting rejected.

Damn.

Or if you go to the website and you get that big red screen, they're like, do not pass go.

Do not collect $200.

You don't get it.

Yeah, not so good.

Credit card limit increase rejection skyrocketed to 45%, a new record since the survey began in 2013.

45% of people that went on their websites and called their credit card companies and said, hey, can I have access to more credit card, you know, limits who probably were at a grant cardone seminar trying to get more money.

So grant.

They could pay grant card more money 45% of the time they got rejected.

45%?

Yeah.

That's a lot.

What does that tell you, though, man?

What does that tell you?

People are literally, like, scraping and clawing at, you know, a way to make ends meet for the interim period.

I'm still going, baby doll.

You ready?

This doesn't make me feel good, man.

But you get to say, I told you so.

Yeah.

Told you so.

Additionally, mortgage and auto loan rejection rates doubled over the last three years to 23% and 14%, respectively.

Mortgage loans, 23% rejection rate.

Almost 25% of people who apply for a mortgage are getting rejected.

They're saying they're literally applying, thinking that I can afford this home.

And they're like, no, you can't.

So I have a statement and a question for you.

Okay.

You are going to answer on behalf of the American people.

Oh, I am a lot of pressure on those representatives.

Yeah.

I represent America.

You represent America.

Okay.

It has rarely been tougher to access credit in the United States.

The question for you, sayed Omar, the American people.

Yeah.

Is the debt bubble bursting?

Well, I like to take this opportunity to first thank God and my family for getting me here to be this representative.

You got to point up and do that.

Yeah, there you go.

There you go.

And yeah, man, it's bursting.

It's going to burst.

The debo.

It has to burst.

And by bursting, I mean there will be bankruptcies like we've never seen before.

There's no.

There's no way.

There's no way around it.

And I don't know what's gonna happen.

I don't know.

What kind of bailouts are these credit card companies gonna get?

I mean, what's gonna happen to them?

If they've reserved appropriately, they won't need them.

Reserved appropriately.

I don't know if you can account for all this.

I was recently contacted by.

How are they regulated?

Huh?

I don't even know how they're regulated.

There's credit.

There's actually pretty stiff credit card gouging rules in place, you know, across the country on both a federal and state level.

Yeah, there's some pretty good rules in place to protect credit.

What's interesting is.

So I was contacted recently by journalists, I started to say about why credit card rates haven't gone down despite the fed funds rate cuts.

Good question.

And I did a full breakdown on.

Basically, it's very tantamount to the Mortgage rate environment where it's going up, not down.

And a lot of these debt holders, banks generally or some type of credit issuer are trying to recoup lost profits because in order for them to keep their profits where they were historically, while interest rates were down so low, they had to cut expenses.

Right.

That usually means people and get more efficient.

Now they've gotten more efficient and they've got less expenses.

This is their opportunity to make more money.

So they're going to keep those rates as high as they can for as long as they can.

But it's hard for me to believe that that industry, let's just say, is regulated the same way our industry is regulated.

A lot of issuers of credit cards are banks.

I know, I know they are.

Right.

But I don't know the debt to income ratios.

I mean how, when it's a risk a lot of people are applying.

They're literally asking you.

I mean, this is how it used to be.

I'm not, I'm not.

A lot of people are getting rejected now, but you just provide them with your stated income and they would approve you for a certain line of credit amount so long as you didn't have a poor credit history.

A lot of them use AI now and there's some fascinating.

So I did.

I sat through an AI.

This was wild.

I sat through a presentation from a company who I can't name because I am going to work with them for sure.

But basically he showed me an example of how AI is being utilized by a lot of these credit card companies.

No way.

And it's fascinating.

So you can see on someone's credit card statement the date they were charged, who they were charged by and the amount.

Right.

Okay.

They were able to reverse engineer your effective free cash flow.

That's great.

I mean, you should be able to use this for underwriting.

So this is effectively an underwriting tool.

They were able to engineer what products would save you money based on your current spending habits.

And they could tell what credit cards you were using for what points and why based on the charge you were making, what they knew.

I mean, it was a wild breakdown.

That's great.

And the whole point is if you were to call somebody in their ecosystem and you were to say, hey, I need X, Y and Z, they could say to you, oh, no, but what you need is this product.

Let me tell you why.

And here's how much it'll save you.

Day one with all your spending.

And it wasn't like somebody had to go into your account and Investigate.

Like, this screen just pops up for them.

Nice.

And it only allows them to cross sell and kind of deepen your relationship, but it allows them to give you real feedback based on your spending.

Right.

And they also had a whole like consumer loan group that went on top of this saying, hey, it's pretty obvious you would save money if you consolidated this debt with this consumer loan.

And here's how much you would save.

They knew this the second you call them.

I mean, that's, that's absolutely brilliant because the person on the other end probably doesn't even understand that, you know, this is what they're using.

And they probably feel like this, this person, this company understands me so much better.

Is wildly insightful, right?

Yeah, yeah, yeah.

That's great.

It was incredible.

So within a couple minutes he pulled up.

So basically he shows you.

He showed me like the screen of like this, you know, mock up account going, Chris, I think you can, you can, you can gauge from the spending.

And I looked at the screen, it had like a hundred line items.

It's really hard to do that when you see just date vendor charge and dollar amount.

You're like, I don't know if I could piece something together.

I'd have to look at.

You'd have to, you'd have to really analyze it.

Yeah, he scanned it and literally the next screen goes over and it just gives you this full breakdown.

It's so efficient.

That's incredible.

It's so efficient.

Yeah, I love that.

And then there's also like a chat gbt, like function where you could ask it questions.

So as the consumer is asking you questions, you could ask it and it would respond back based on looking at the analytics.

And it was, it was amazing.

All you got to do is remove the human from it once the AI gets, you know, articulate enough to speak to you.

And you're just like, why do I even need you, human being?

Like, we're, we're just go smoke a cigar.

Yeah, I mean, like you're, you don't, you don't, we don't need you.

Right?

Like, go watch a Brad Pitt movie or something.

So I had to include this because, well, you're a terrible human being and you love to say, I told you so.

Clearly you did it three times here without even really pushing you.

You, you just, you took a huge amount of pride in being able to say that to the American people.

The people.

The people.

According to Kabisi letter.

I saw this and thought, oh my God.

Said, God damn it, he's right.

Again.

It's doing this again.

Jim Kramer says.

I'm quoting here.

Let's go.

Is this going where I think it's going?

All I can tell you is to own bitcoin.

That's a winner.

Let's go, baby.

End quote.

Let's go.

That's when I saw that.

I was like, finally, he's doing them all.

That's it.

You got to be out at this point, right?

At this point in time.

It's, you know, they have to be, like, kicking themselves.

Rarely in society do you get a clear moment where you know, you need to sell, where you're like, I have to sell fucking now.

Press the button.

So what's going on?

What's going on?

Pull the rip cord.

What's going on?

The next.

With this.

Get out.

This has to be, like, all over the place, right?

I'll put it this way.

It came up in my feed in all caps.

Breaking, colon, the quote.

Jim Kramer's picture.

That's all you needed.

Everybody knew what that meant.

Yeah.

You understand the assignment.

That is the milestone marker.

That is the fissure which causes the quake, which takes down the entire bitcoin ecosystem.

You will be able to go back and say, that's Lehman Brothers, right?

That's the moment you will lose all.

Of your value in bitcoin because Jim Kramer took it from you.

He put the bad juju on it.

He's literally.

That's his signal to the mark that.

That's his Batman sign.

He dropped the salt bay all over it.

The restaurant's closing.

It's over.

No, it's over, baby.

It's.

Oh, it's had your moment in the sun.

Nobody wants to see you with a shiny, overpriced steak and a knife.

You know, that's gonna be a nasty rug pull, bro.

Nasty rug pull.

It's over a hundred thousand now, right?

I don't know.

Is it over?

I think it was.

I think it was under last I checked.

Last you checked.

Can you imagine if, like, let's just pick somebody who's absurd.

Can you imagine if Jim Kramer was like, I'm Satoshi.

I created Bitcoin.

Yeah.

95, 95,000.

I am the blockchain.

All eyes on me.

The biggest rug pull of all time.

Let's end tonight's show with a comment from a listener.

Sean Bean.

Sean Bean.

Sean Bean.

Shout out to Sean.

Yeah.

This was a incredibly thoughtful comment and I wanted to share.

Not all of our reviews are five star reviews made available to the public.

Some of them are private, intimate, sexy.

Thoughtful.

Yeah.

Five star reviews.

And I got to tell you, there are comments like this that just warm my little warm heart.

Make the fuzzy undertones just so nice.

Makes me feel warm and fuzzy right before Thanksgiving, too.

Yeah, it's great.

He's giving thanks.

Yeah, he's giving thanks to you and to you.

To you.

What about your boy on pto?

I think most people are just happy he's gone.

For him.

Happy for him.

For him.

Because.

Clarify.

He's having kids.

Clarify.

Christopher.

He's out supporting the population by adding more people to it.

Yeah, absolutely.

Yeah.

He's trying to decrease your home values by putting in more price competition, and we're trying to lower them.

Right, right.

We.

We understand when enough is enough, right?

Oh, it's.

You don't know the gender, right?

No.

Oh, we know the gender.

Is it a boy?

How do we do I do right now on the show?

Three for three on girls.

Do I do it right now on the show or how do I do this?

You already gave it away.

Your excitement proves that it's a boy.

Do I do it right now on the show, or do we.

Do we find a creative way to do it?

We'll call them on the left on the show.

We'll do it live.

We'll do it live.

Because I can call him with that setup.

We'll just call him.

Okay.

So you don't want to know until the next show is what you're telling me.

No, I don't want to know.

It's a boy.

I can already tell on your face.

Yeah, it's a boy.

Yeah.

Poor guy's going to have gout.

Poor little guy.

Come out the womb of gout.

All right, Sean Bean, I want to thank you and your team.

That's right.

You're my team, bitch.

Yeah.

Since listening to you for the past year, I pretty much have saved and cut back spending for over a year, my man.

Good for you.

Good for you that you're in that position to where you could do that.

He's not waiting for that mythical fucking soft landing unicorn to fly over his house.

He's saving money now so we can shoot that fucker whenever it does appear.

As he should.

We.

We sold one of our houses at top of the market, saved and paid attention.

We came across this opportunity.

As much as I wanted to hold more cash and wait, this wasn't going to wait.

The owner wanted out.

Now, I'm still very worried about the coming economy, but I'll be sure to keep working on cutting costs and saving as much as possible.

Good for you, Sean.

I respect it, my friend.

That is honestly the biggest thanks we could get is hearing that people have economically prospered as a result of the building blocks of economic foundations they built on the show and listening to these two idiots talk for an hour a.

Week just to make, you know, better, more informed decisions.

And I know a lot of times it's not easy to be able to do that.

Look, I'll be the first to admit we've done that in my household.

I think I told you last week.

We've, we've created games in my house.

How many days can we string together without spending a dollar on discretionary spending?

Right?

Yeah.

I would lose that game in four hours.

Four hours.

It's bad.

So I mean, like, we're trying.

We're literally, we're we're gamifying it and the kids are into it and it's, it's, it's been fun.

That's a lie.

It's fine.

I mean, I would like it to be the other way.

It would be nice if I didn't.

Have to play this game.

But I'll be the first to admit.

So kudos to you, Sean, and hopefully more listeners can be like that.

If you want to be like Sean and you want to leave us an honest five star review, you could do that on Apple or Spotify.

If you are watching this on YouTube, you can make sure you subscribe.

Hit that like button.

Ring that notification bell.

Do all the moist goody good stuff.

Leave us a comment down there below.

Let us know if you think the American dream is dead.

Also, we dropped a limited edition tis this season holiday all fact no cap shirt designed by yours truly in a meeting where I clearly wasn't paying attention.

Oh, I loved it.

Yeah.

And you know what?

Fuck it.

The best comment on YouTube for this show.

If you listen this far in we will pick two and the best two comments.

Get a free shirt.

The tizzy season limited edition holiday shirt.

And listen up guys.

The shirt.

Hold on, hold on.

God damn it.

All right, y'all some greasies.

Some greedy ass people.

Last time we did this is bro, I appreciate the shirt but I would like the sweatshirt does it.

I go go to the store and go thspod.com pick out any T shirt you like.

You know I really like that guard your hearts hoodie.

I know you do.

I know.

I'm sure you do.

It's also exceedingly more expensive.

And the price that you're paying is the price that we are paying.

Yeah, yeah.

Yeah.

Yeah.

So pick out a T shirt.

Right.

So two comments.

The best two comments on YouTube.

OK.

Get to pick their size in the TIS this season limited edition holiday.

All facts no cap, shirt only.

Only that shirt.

Only that shirt.

There you go.

Because, you know, we're.

We're joyful during this time of year.

Yeah.

And look, do you.

Are you.

Are you one of those people that, like, you notice yourself?

Like, you see the Christmas lights around the community, you're like, you're naturally a little bit happier.

Like, does that mean.

No, I'm the opposite.

I'm.

I'm the.

You guys.

Your holiday spirit.

I just see.

All I see is dollar signs.

I'm spending money this time of year.

It's because you.

I got about more.

Yeah.

Now I gotta do this.

God damn it.

Is Carter into any holiday movies?

Is there one where he's like, that's.

That's my jam?

Not yet, but he loves the decorations, so we'll walk around the neighborhood later.

Actually, before I came here tonight, that's.

We were walking the neighborhood looking at all the holiday decorations that are people already doing the Christmas trying to make you look like an Thanksgiving ain't even done it yet.

Thanksgiving not even here yet, bro.

Used to be a barometer for this stuff.

I don't understand parts that sucks the most.

The part that blows me away.

The day after Christmas, you're going to see Valentine's Day stuff in the grocery store because this.

Yeah.

It's just.

It's just one.

One bleeding holiday after another bleeding holiday.

And the month after that I got the wife's birthday.

Month after that I got my son's birthday.

Never ends, bro.

It's just.

I just.

I.

It's birthday tax.

Yeah.

Birthday tax is real.

Yeah.

You know.

You know what I want for my birthday?

I don't want to buy y'all something for your birthday.

That's what I want.

That's a good gift.

Yeah.

Honestly, don't buy me something so I don't have to buy you nothing.

Let's just not even contact each other on birthdays.

How about that?

Yeah.

I'm gonna give you free financial advice.

Go to the tire standard podcast.

Yeah.

You don't.

Don't even contact me so I don't got to feel bad about not contacting you on your birthday.

Yeah.

Yeah.

Don't be upset when I don't contact you for your birthday because that's your gift to me, bro.

That was the best back.

Back in the day for.

I mean, the greater portion of majority of my Adulthood, right?

I didn't have social media.

So when I missed birthdays, be like, bro, I ain't on social media.

How am I supposed to know it's your birthday?

I don't got that shit saved on my phone.

Now I'm on social media.

People are like, bro, you got social media.

I know you saw the icon pop up.

You saw it, right?

Or you check my stories, bitch.

Yeah, you saw that.

I was at parties and you're like, oh, no, I didn't.

I saw.

Yeah.

See, the problem is I was going.

To the bathroom and I swiped through.

I got offended.

I saw you had a birthday party.

I wasn't there, so fuck you then.

You know, like, I'm not going to.

How about I don't wish you.

Let me be clear here, okay?

I'm going to be this guy.

And I know we're late in the show, so I know no one's ever going to hear this, but fuck you if you celebrate your birthday for a week, honestly, like, you're an asshole.

Who the fuck are you, Diddy?

Who the fuck do you think you are?

It's my birthday week, guys.

Nobody fucking cares, bro.

Nobody has been like, yes, it's fucking Tiffany's birthday week.

Let's go out every fucking day this week.

No one's done that shit.

How do you feel?

Okay.

This is okay.

I don't know.

I swear to God, I don't know how people do this.

How do you feel about people that throw themselves a birthday party and invite a bunch of people as, like, an adult?

It depends on how you do it, okay?

If you're doing it, like, yo, I'm throwing a party for myself because I want to have a good time.

I don't want anybody else to stress out about it.

I'm just doing it so, like, we don't have to go out and do, like, what?

Do me.

So, like, what?

Like, what is it?

What is this?

Like, what's okay?

Like, going to dinner?

Like, no, it happens.

You let you throw a dinner party for yourself, everybody else pays, right?

Because they're not going.

Your friend group goes to your.

Your birthday party, then you pay for everybody else.

Like, there's some questions going on, right?

Like, you basically paid for.

So then what.

What's acceptable?

Like, what would you do?

What do you mean?

So what would be acceptable?

I'm the wrong guy to ask, man, because I don't like birthday parties, period.

I honestly, exactly.

Like, I.

Here's the thing.

I would like for.

To use my birthday as they get together, like, okay, let's all get together for my birthday.

But let's just.

I didn't want to do that.

Let's just not even.

But let's not bring up my birthday.

Let's just get together.

I don't want to do that either.

Why?

I'm.

Dude, I'm.

I'm.

Swear to God.

I got problems.

Like, I'm socially.

Like, I got issues.

My wife is so confused by this.

Because my wife, you know, she's.

She's social.

And I used to be.

I used to be social.

I don't know what happened to me.

Right?

Like, I woke up one day and I'm like, nope, not today.

And it just.

Every other.

The next day was like, Groundhog's Day.

Nope, not today.

And now when it comes to my birthdays, people like, what do you want to do?

And people will ask me.

I'll be like, I'm gonna go to the gym.

Like, but I want to do something with you.

Like.

Yeah, I know.

That's why I wanna go to the gym.

Like, I want to go to the gym.

Work out.

Yeah.

I want to go home if I feel good, maybe see a movie.

Yeah.

Right.

Without you.

With my wife.

Right.

Have dinner with my wife, see my son, and then go to sleep early.

Yeah.

It's a good day.

It's a good day for me.

Right?

And they're like, what about.

What if we want to celebrate?

You don't.

That's your gift to me.

Don't worry about it.

Why?

I don't want you worried about it.

I don't like you, though.

But they.

But it's not a word.

Don't like me.

Yeah.

I don't even like me.

Why are you doing this?

There's a funny.

You know who Nate Bargassi is?

He's a clean comic.

Why do you bring up all these comics?

I don't know.

You know, I don't.

I never.

I never once in the show been like, yeah, man, I know.

That comic is neighbor.

He's great.

But he literally, he.

He takes you through the progression of, like, you know, when you're.

When you're in your 20s and someone calls you to go out, you're like, fuck, I'm already there.

Yeah.

Like, let's go.

Go.

Yeah.

In your 30s, you're like, man, all right, man, who's going to be there?

So you start asking, who's going to be there?

In your 40s, you're like, no, man.

He goes, I think he said, in your 40s.

You like.

You like.

You answer the Phone.

You're offended that you think that I've come out of the house for this shit, bruh.

It's cold.

Yeah, it's like at least 52 degrees outside, bro.

I got work tomorrow.

Like, or like, I got to take my kid to the soccer game in the morning.

I'm not going to go out tonight.

Trying to wake up early.

Yeah, why?

And dude, it's true, man.

Like, I hate that shit.

Don't come at me with that whack ass invite shit.

I personally, me personally, I do enjoy that.

Small, intimate gatherings.

So here's the problem though.

I don't like the.

I don't like, like anything of more than three people.

I start to go, first of all.

I'm considerably older than you are.

You're gonna get to where I'm at, okay?

I know this is gonna happen to.

You many, many moons from now, but.

Whenever you do get there, I'm gonna be like, ah, right.

And my wife is considerably younger than me.

Oh, okay.

So she's still in the like, I can make it phase.

And I'm in the, no, you can't.

Yeah, you can't do it.

You can't make it.

So she routinely was like, she goes out with like a lot of like, co workers, friends, all this stuff.

She goes out all these people.

Right, right.

And.

And she'll be like, oh, God, it was such a long night.

She'll get home, she'll be tired and I'll be like, yeah, I bet.

I feel great.

I'm in.

I'm in the bed.

Yeah.

I'm just chilling, watching tv.

Yeah.

Made a mistake.

Got my glasses on.

Yeah.

It was all productive.

Is this you telling her I told you so?

No, no, no.

And she goes, you should go out your friends.

And I'm like, why?

I got no friends.

What you talking about?

I don't need no friends.

I'm here with the cat.

We're good.

Yeah.

Hashtag no new friends.

Don't.

I hate that.

I hate that stupid saying.

Why?

What do you mean?

For a while people were like, oh, my God, our friend group.

No new friends.

And you're just like, bruh, Drizzy, bro.

Yeah, well, enough said.

Sue University Music group.

Yeah.

I have one last question before we end the show.

This is a serious question.

I feel like it's not serious when you.

It's serious when you say, no, no, no, it's serious.

Oh, okay.

You know, I've got a tattoo on the underside of my left arm, right below my elbow.

Says my son's name.

And wife's handwriting says Carter Maddox.

I love it.

I love.

I love that it's your.

It's your wife's handwriting.

I think that's really, really cool.

I thought it was a really cool idea.

It's very meaningful to me.

Yeah.

And when I got.

I was thinking about getting the same exact one.

Okay, this is where the conversation's going.

My brother sends me a picture last weekend.

Huh?

You got a tattoo in the exact same spot.

Exact same spot of what?

In Farsi.

Of the word love.

Of love.

You can't read Farsi.

How does he know it says love?

That he's trusting his mom.

He's trusted.

I wouldn't trust it.

Okay?

There's trust there.

And I'm like, bruh, why.

Why you get a tattoo in the exact same spot that I got a tattoo?

Why does that matter, Bro, don't be that weird, dude.

Don't be like that.

What is this?

My.

My brother gets a tattoo.

It's just weird.

Like, now if I would go somewhere if I'm wearing a short sleeve shirt around him, I'm gonna be like, you guys got tattoos in the same spot?

And be like, yeah, we love each other so much.

His says love.

It's just weird.

It's kind of cool that you and your brother have similar tattoos.

That's a cool thing.

I knew you were gonna play the politically correct shit.

No, I swear to God.

Like, dude, you don't understand.

You don't understand.

I always grew up.

So you wanted a brother?

Yeah, Weiss.

My cousin Weiss, right.

Is the closest thing I've ever had to a brother.

He's much cooler than you.

So when.

When we were.

He's very.

He rocks.

Pearls, bro.

Like, he's.

Say no more.

Yeah, he's.

He's fly.

He gets it.

I saw he wears.

I just found out the.

The.

The brand of clothes that he wears is, like, the number one LA street brand wear.

I was like, pleasures.

I didn't know that.

That sounds like a porno.

No, no, no, no.

This thing is.

It's hyped up.

It's the number one LA street brand right now.

Right.

And they're huge.

So they're all crop tops for dudes?

Yeah, dude.

I don't.

It's the oversized shirts, but they don't crop tops.

They don't go very.

No, they're not crop tops.

They're basic crop tops.

They stop, like, at the belt line.

If you put your arms up, you're seeing some navel.

Yeah.

No.

And the clothes, you will never catch.

The clothes are really, really sick.

Which, by the way, the.

The gm for the entire company I went to high school with, I just.

Had a light bulb moment.

For the first time in my life, I go out and buy a normal shirt and it would fit in today's style.

Oh, yeah.

No, but then the sleeves, it's got to be the oversized, you know, that's the problem.

That's that problem.

Anything.

That is the problem.

I don't.

So back.

Back to what you say.

I don't.

I think it's cool.

I really.

I really do think it's cool.

And you should embrace it.

Knowing that you got somebody that close to you that, like, look, he felt comfortable enough to do that and be like you, and that's cool.

So now I'm obligated.

He does, he does acknowledge the fact that he doesn't say, it's not the same thing, bro.

He didn't believe I had a tattoo there until today when I saw him at the coffee shop at my house.

Because.

And he's like, oh, you really do have one.

He's like, that's weird, bro.

And I'm like, how did you not.

You knew.

You.

Come on, man.

Come on.

I thought you were blessing me.

That takes away the cool points.

Yeah, it was done intentionally.

No.

Then it's cool.

No, allegedly, it wasn't.

So today I'm.

I wasn't.

I was gonna end the show there, but you brought something up.

Now I have to bring it up because this happened and it's just.

It's two coincidences and now I gotta do it.

So I get into the car after taking Carter to Kumon.

My wife's in the back, Carter's in the back, and I'm in the Rivian.

And in front of me is a black Tesla.

Does Weiss drive a black Tesla?

I think it's the, like a gray.

A gray one is a Model 3, but I knew Weiss drives a Tesla.

He's got the X.

Yeah, he is.

An X, but I knew he had a Tesla.

Right.

So this dude in front of me is sitting in the driver's seat and there.

And he has pearls on an open collar shirt.

And he's clearly like some type of Middle Eastern.

I can't tell because I can't see because he's got tinted windows.

Yeah, yeah.

And he's talking to this Asian girl with like copper colored hair.

Okay.

Right.

And she's clearly not feeling his vibe because he's all up in her personal space.

Yeah.

And she's all up against the back window.

Got it.

And he's going ham on some story.

And you pulled up next to them?

No, they're right in front of me because I'm parked in a parking spot, and they're in the parking.

So you're facing each other.

Right.

And I'm watching this, and I'm going like, this is Weiss.

This is Weiss and his girl.

Like, this is Weiss.

I mean, do I take a photo of this?

So I keep.

So I pick up my phone to take a photo of it, and I'm kind of.

I'm lifting it up, and I'm like, oh, I'm gonna get it.

Don't tell me you flashed it.

Had a flashlight.

No, the dude looks at me.

Oh, no.

And Joanna and Carter in the back.

And I don't want to explain what I'm doing right now because this is weird.

Right, right, right, right, right, right.

So then he looks at me, and he's like.

And I see him pointing me and go, what the.

Yeah.

Yeah.

So I'm just like, pull the car in reverse.

That's why you got to wear those.

Get those meta glasses, bro.

So don't you Jack.

You know I wanted those, you selfish son of bitch.

There's.

Now I'm as bad as my brother if I buy them.

Honestly, they're the best.

They're there.

You've never used them?

I swear.

I've used them in the office all the time.

Can I tell you right now what I don't miss when I.

When I use those?

I don't miss the AirPods.

And no, people around me can't even hear that I'm actually listening to something.

The speakers don't even play that loud.

Yeah, it's great.

All right.

The.

The meta.

AI on that.

Dude, I can only imagine what that second generation of those glasses are going to be like.

They demoed them.

I know.

I think it's going to change the landscape.

All right, well, why don't you change the landscape of the show and call it a rap?

Oh, is that what you want to do?

Just like that.

Odun.

You got any pop culture?

I just have.

You have to, out of respect, right?

You can't just abruptly stop doing it.

Should we do the rune laugh?

Good night, everybody.

Bye.