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Hey, good morning, good afternoon, good evening, wherever you may be.

Scott Luton and the one and only Kevin L.

Jackson with you here on Supply Chain now.

Welcome to today's live stream.

Hey, Kevin, how you doing?

Hey, I'm doing great.

Happy holidays, whatever you may be celebrating.

Okay, Everybody's trying to find something to celebrate this week.

Well, you know what?

The candy makers were very happy, at least with our household.

So the kids have got lots of sugar for weeks on end.

But all of that aside, Kevin, we got some sad news to start with here today as we join the rest of the world in mourning Pope Francis, the first Latin American pontiff in history who passes away earlier today at 88 years old after 12 years, I believe, serving as Pope Kevin.

Sad news start, huh?

Very sad.

Especially as he celebrated Easter just yesterday and he was out, you know, riding around in his popemobile.

I guess he was waiting to celebrate the holiday before he went home.

There's a greater plan, I believe, much bigger than the rest of us, but appreciate his decades of service to the rest of humanity and our hearts and prayers are with everyone.

Morning around the world on a Much much.

Folks, you notice the buzz where every Monday at 12 noon Eastern time, we discuss a variety of news developments across global chain, across global business.

And Kevin, we got some great topics here today.

From Walmart doing some cool new things with geospatial technology, which Kevin was doing at 5 years old, to the growth of more and more alternatives to UPS and FedEx, to big changes going on over at the US Postal Service and some big questions shippers got to be thinking about in light of this buka environment.

All of that plus about 12:15pm Eastern time.

Kevin, we got an excellent guest joining us.

Max Garland, senior reporter with Supply Chain Dive, will be joining us to walk us through a lot of big stories taking place across global supply chain.

Kevin, should be a great addition to the buzz today, huh?

Oh, yeah, absolutely.

You talk about changes at the usps.

I mean, every day you wake up, there's some change going on in the federal government.

It's scary sometimes.

I think Aretha Franklin was talking about change.

Change.

It was a supply chain tune back in the day.

Who'd have thunk, right?

But it's minute by minute, folks.

Stay tuned for a great show.

But you know, ke, we got two tips for everyone out there, whether you're listening, watching you name it.

Give us your take in the comments.

Just like those wonderful professionals we're doing there.

Whether you're tuned in via LinkedIn, YouTube, X, Facebook, Twitch, no matter.

Listen to what you think.

And Kevin, if folks enjoy the show today, and we do offer a money back guarantee, if folks enjoy the show, we'd love for them to share it with a friend or your network, right?

Oh, yeah, absolutely.

You know, I'm always amazed by our global audience.

I mean, we had Saudi, we got, you know, Ireland.

I don't know if we have anybody here from the United States, but, you.

Know, busy dealing with all that change, right?

Yeah, dealing with all that change.

But this is a fun, fun live show.

I'm with you now, Kevin.

Before we welcome in our outstanding guests.

Looking forward to what Max brings today.

Let's hit an interesting article from our friends at Chain Store Age.

Chain Store Age.

And it talks about some high tech moves that the Walmart team is doing.

In fact, the retail giant is using advanced geospatial technology to optimize its delivery zones.

Kevin, tell us more.

Well, first of all, you know, I have to bring the tech.

Yes.

Before you jump in, because I learned something.

The green room, you spent three years doing geospatial technology in particular.

Yeah, yeah.

So the National Geospatial Intelligence Agency, I did a lot of work with government satellites and the satellites that take all the pictures actually are being run by, in today's world, the National Geospatial Intelligence Agency.

So they take all the pictures and create the maps.

Do you know what a map is?

I mean, people may not know.

I mean, you used to like drive it.

Where you go, you have to have a little map to know.

Now you just ask Google, hey, take me home.

So true.

And you don't need maps anymore, but you know, the source data from all your driving apps comes from gps.

Okay.

And the National Geospatial Intelligence Agency.

So I was there for about three years.

Okay.

So in bringing this technology now to your front door, Walmart is improving how you can get your stuff.

It's always that last mile that's critical.

So they have a custom built geospatial program leveraging open source software and they get internal and external data to optimize your delivery coverage.

And you'd say, well, why they got to do that?

You know, don't they know where people's homes are?

They got the address, they got the zip code, but sometimes it's just too coarse of information.

So using traditional zip codes is a too big of a space.

So the geospatial data divides it into very small areas, more precise hexagons, and each grid actually contains real time data like, you know, slot availability, drive time for that pick and pack the store capacity.

Okay.

This also allows Walmart to service your request from multiple stores.

So if you order something, it may not come from the store that you go to all the time.

It may come from other stores that are nearby.

So your delivery order can be fulfilled by multiple Walmart stores.

And unlike circular or square grids, which can use inefficiencies because of the areas at the edge, Walmart says that this system ensures that every point within the delivery zone is covered, so you will always get your stuff.

There's so much confidence in how you put that, Kevin.

Well, outstanding.

And I love that you address some of the.

So what I want to add on to what you shared there.

So with this initiative, Walmart can now make same day deliveries to 12 million more U.S.

households.

Right?

12 million more.

And as Kevin mentioned, it allows for those customers to be served by more than one store more often.

And ideally, those efficiencies gained and those new options that are gained might mean reduced deliveries and packaging.

So maybe that last mile becomes greener and greener.

Hopefully we'll see where it goes.

But hey, Kevin, Geospatial Technologies are we seeing, given your work as an expert, are you seeing more and more applications for how we can use that not just in supply chains, but any industry?

Oh yeah, absolutely.

How can the drone find that tower that it has to work on?

Right.

This type of approach gives you more precise information to take that drone.

Think about a first responder.

If you have an accident and you have to deliver to a spot in the middle of an interstate in the middle of nowhere, this new technology will shorten the time that drone needs to get that life saving medication to.

Okay, all right.

Love it.

Well, hey, we're going to get some more geospatial technology updates from the one and only Kevin L.

Jackson so you learn something new about Kevin.

You know, my dear friend, Enrique Alvarez earned one of his many nicknames, is the International man of Mystery.

Because I'll tell you, every time you turn around, Enrique is doing some other cool things around the world.

Kevin, you might be the second international man of mystery with all the cool things you have spent your career doing.

Huh?

Well, you know, I'm always chasing after Enrique.

Aren't we all?

Aren't we all?

Okay, so let's do this.

We've got an outstanding guest here.

They folks keep the Comments coming.

We're gonna try to work them in as much as we can over the course of the next 50 minutes.

So, Kevin, we enjoyed meeting our guest in the green room.

I think our audience is going to enjoy him as well.

Our guests have been covering the parcel industry, logistics news, and other business topics for years now.

And when he's not unpacking the latest in all of that, you can find him winning trivia nights and paddle boarding for Olympic gold on a river near you.

Let's welcome in Max Garland, a senior reporter for one of our faves Supply chain dive.

Hey.

Hey, Max.

How you doing?

Hey.

Good morning, guys.

Happy buzz day.

Happy buzz day instead.

Great to see you.

So, Max, as most of our audience members may know, maybe not our newest ones, but I love starting with the fun warm up question to get to know our guests a little bit more before we dive into all things supply chain.

And you've got an interesting way where you spend some of your free time.

So I got to ask you, have you found more competitive success on the trivia or the paddle board circuit?

Max.

Oh, man.

Oh, man, I'd say trivia for sure.

Paddleboarding is more of my peaceful, Zen nature activity, so I'm not going to be winning any Olympic gold there for sure.

Just to clarify, Scott.

Oh, so that explains why I don't see that gold medal behind you.

Yeah, otherwise it'd be right up there, man.

Trivia, though.

I'm a lot more ruthless.

Me and my buddies go out every week.

We're defending champs, so we have a title to defend.

Tuesday.

Okay, I've got a follow up question that I did not prepare you for.

But one of my favorite things about trivia nights is the really fun team names.

So, Max, I'm putting you on this spot.

I know, but do you want to share your very successful team name with us?

Of course, of course.

So it's one you have to piece together a bit, but Libby Mafia.

So first, Libby is the library app that me and my buddies love to use.

And then you also got Mafia for Bill's Mafia.

One of my buddies is Bill Span.

So combine the two.

That's our team name.

All right, look, folks, if Libby Mafia is on the trivia rankings list at your local neighborhood friendly bar, watch out, because they are the experts.

High rollers.

Okay, Kevin, we know where Max is spending some of his free time, right?

How about you?

The weather's so nice.

What have you been doing up there in the D.C.

area?

Oh, yeah, absolutely.

I started walking the other day.

It was like 85 degrees already.

So I'll go and felt like I was in Atlanta, but over the weekend, I got to go do some make your own pizza.

Okay.

At this local restaurant was in Arlington, just across the river from Washington, D.C.

and Lisa, my wife, and I, we went there first.

You made your own pizza.

Yeah.

And then you'd go to this other table and it's made, make your own cocktail.

So he cook the pizza and bring it to your table, and you get to eat the pizza you made and drink the cocktail that you made.

Thank you.

I think it was just a way for the restaurant to get out of having any responsibility on you.

Yeah.

Well, it sounds delicious.

Sounds like a great time.

And I appreciate you making me starving.

I can eat pizza every day if my diet allowed it.

But anyway, Kevin and Max, we got a lot to get into here today.

All right.

So, Max, great to have you here.

Really.

As I shared earlier, big fan of really the whole Dial family of publications diving in almost every single day.

So for a handful of folks that may not know, share a little bit, if you would, about your background and Supply Chain dive.

Sure.

Yeah.

So starting with me, I've been covering the supply chain space for a little bit.

Parcel Logistics has been my core coverage area, really started back in 2018 when I was a reporter for the Commercial Appeal newspaper in Memphis, where, okay, FedEx is a big presence in that town.

So I was covering everything happening with FedEx, based in Memphis.

I took that job because I thought it'd be a great opportunity as a business reporter.

But what I found was I really loved the logistics space.

I figured out I'm a geek for that sort of stuff as sure you guys and the viewers are, too.

It's a fascinating space to cover with the mix of players, big characters.

So I joined Supply Chain Dive, where I am now back in 2021.

So I'm coming up on four years, core focuses, last mile delivery and logistics.

It's been a great time.

I'm excited to help continue building that for years to come.

Well, you know, I was a big fan of your reporting before I became a big fan of yours.

Now that I finally was able to meet you and learn a little more about you.

And I'll tell you, Kevin, you've been with us on the third Monday of the month for years now.

I didn't go back and look at all the data, but I bet Supply Chain Dive, I bet they've been a part of about 40% of our shows.

Kevin.

Oh, yeah.

The plurality probably.

I don't we think, yeah.

Every week when you're looking for something that's relevant in the news, Supply Chain Dive is there providing that information.

I mean, it's like you guys got the pulse, right?

You're taking a pulse every week.

That's right.

Thank you very much for making it easy.

Well, you know, and not to pile on, but anyone that's tuned in to the buzz, they already know this.

This is very genuine commentary here.

We've got to be more informed ever before we've got so much uncertainty that VUCA term.

Right.

And I'm not gonna remember the acronym exactly, but lots of uncertainty.

Let's just start there.

Start and stop there.

Tons of uncertainty.

Right.

And we've got to be informed minute by minute almost so we can make better, better decisions more timely, more successfully.

So, Kevin and Max, we got a lot to walk through here today and we're going to be really talking through a variety.

Max, of your great recent work over on Supply Chain Dive.

In fact, you just reported as of this morning on how FedEx and UPS alternatives grew their market share in 2024.

In fact, you'd this article here, we're dropping a link right there in the chat that according to ship Matrix, FedEx, UPS and the US Postal Service may all experience flat to negative growth over the next three years.

Max, tell us more.

Yeah, as you mentioned, Scott, I've wrote about some interesting data that came out from Ship Matrix.

They're pretty well known in the supply chain space about deliveries in the U.S.

parcel market last year.

So we know that FedEx, Postal Service, UPS, they're big drivers of delivery activity in the U.S.

so you're likely working with them in some capacity, maybe Amazon too.

If you're selling on Amazon, that's the way it's been for years.

But we're seeing the tides start to turn a little bit more when there's a good chance.

Oftentimes large shippers especially they're using alternative carriers like OnTrack more often or even, you know, their own internal delivery fleets if you're big enough, if you're a Walmart or a Target.

So think of Walmart with deliveries from its stores using some of that geospatial technology you guys were talking about.

Or Target was shipt, which it owns and makes a bunch of deliveries.

But I'll boil it down to a stat for you guys.

So stats from Ship Matrix carers that weren't FedEx, UPS, the post office or Amazon, they made just 4% of market share for US parcel volume in 2019.

So a small amount in 2024.

So this past year they made up 10% of that share.

They're growing fast and they're taking it from those bigger carriers.

So watch out for them, man.

Okay, Kevin, as we've talked about before, I love the lessons that we learn as consumers.

Whether or not you're a supply chain practitioner or not doesn't matter.

You can learn so much just as consumers.

And Kevin, we're seeing that growing diversity just based on who brings your package each day, huh?

Kevin?

Actually, I think that is being driven by technology being cheaper and easier because it used to take a lot of capital to build your own delivery system.

But now, I mean, you can get the geospatial data from your app.

You can just hire someone on a gig economy to deliver something so the companies can deliver, you know, valuable service for delivering that package without paying the big guys.

Yeah, I think that's a great call out.

And I think the second thing is probably a long list.

I'm sure the second thing is a lot of these big retailers want to bring more into within their control, especially given what we've seen in recent years and what we're living minute by minute, right this minute.

So we're gonna keep our finger on the pulse.

Cause we got the right person to do just that.

So Max, good stuff there today.

And that's just your latest article that published this morning, is that right, Max?

Yeah, that's right.

Just this morning.

So, yeah, we, we keep up with the parcel market quite a lot, our audience.

And I'm sure your guys do anything going on with FedEx, UPS, those guys, they're into it.

I'm with you.

I'm with you.

And folks, we're dropping the links to each of these right here.

It's going to be a busy link day here at the Buzz.

So Max, we just mentioned the U.S.

postal Service.

And it's been a quite long season of what I'll call maybe dated, but Melrose Place over there.

Remember that drama back in the day?

Lots of drama has been unfolding from.

How old are you again?

I've got a.

I've got a.

Yeah, going back ways.

All right, so couple of questions for you, Max.

First, I want to get your thoughts on the ouster of former Postmaster General and CEO Louis DeJoy's ex.

I guess he wasn't pushed out.

He left on his own free will.

He may have been pushed out eventually if he didn't go.

But what do you make of that?

Yeah, so the timing is definitely interesting because whether it was on his own accord or.

Yeah, maybe there was some political push there.

Outlets like the Wall Street Journal reported that Trump was keen on replacing Dejoy at some point.

So it's possible there was some sort of influence.

But I've talked to him a couple times in the past, including one conversation we had about two months before he left.

He didn't give any signals he was planning to step down, so it came as a little bit of a surprise.

But his leaving did get me thinking about sort of his broader legacy as postmaster.

And if there was one thing he excelled at, guys, it was getting a lot of people to have an opinion about him, either one way or the other.

You know, I've talked to people on both sides because his big Delivering for America plan, it drew, you know, some praise.

It also drew some controversy.

Plus, to consolidate, transform his agency sorting network, change delivery timeframes for some people, I meant sore deliveries.

He also completely overhauled how the post office works with Workshare Partners, FedEx, UPS, those guys business five years.

He's definitely worked to have it operate more like a private FedEx or UPS because he has that logistics background, although it came within confines of Congress regulators.

So he butted heads with them quite a bit.

It was definitely an interesting five years to watch because it had no shortage of changes in controversy.

So true.

I'll agree with you.

He was trying to transform the usps.

He had a vision for that, and I think he was halfway through that big initiative you had mentioned.

And, Kevin, speaking of Transformers, one of your favorite topics, your thoughts on Dejoy's exit.

People may not think of it, that's right here, but USPS is actually a public utility.

Right.

What would the country do if we didn't have a postal service it couldn't run.

So this is a very important aspect of our society.

I think it would harm our national security if we didn't have some type of usps.

So I know they're talking about what can we privatize and what we should not privatize.

Well, you know, this is a very important discussion, undoubtedly.

In fact, you bring up some great topics.

It's like you're taking a peek of where I'm going next with Max, Dad, Gamut, Kevin letting all the cats out of the bag.

No, we're going to talk first about some service standards that have already been changing.

So, Max, let's start there.

We talk about privatization next, but tell us about what's been changing already.

Well, yeah, you talk about substantially contentious changes.

This is definitely one of those it's complicated on the surface, guys, as far as the changes, but it's.

It's kind of simple if you break it down.

So earlier this month, yeah, the Postal Service made some changes to its service standards, so either slower or faster deliveries, depending on where you ship from.

So if you give the post office at a more rural location, basically a post office more than 50 miles away from a sorting facility, then expect an additional day in transit for that delivery.

But if you're entering it closer to a distribution center, it may be faster at that end destination.

So basically, the post office is doing that to help with some transportation costs, consolidating that.

I think for a lot of listeners of the show, managing some of these larger supply chains or with distribution assets near cities, they won't have to sweat this too much.

They often won't be dropping off at a rural post office.

But it's worth noting that there are a lot of smaller businesses, people running, you know, kind of smaller boutique businesses.

They rely on their local post office, no matter where they are, as a key point of their supply chain.

You know, dropping off a few packages a week for an E Commerce order.

So I could slow some things down for them.

Now.

It'll still be within existing time frames, but it might be a day or two slower.

We'll have to see.

So it's to be determined if it'll ultimately be okay for post office users, but especially if you're, you know, a smaller shipper, maybe relying on some of those rural areas, something to look out for on the speed side.

Undoubtedly.

And folks, before I get Kevin's comments, I want to add a couple more things and make sure I get a grade of 100 from max in terms of accuracy.

But for folks in the US that happen to be USPS customers, business or personal, let us know your take on what we're talking about here.

All right, so, Max, I'm tracking with you.

Urban area customers may see positive results.

It's that rural area customers where they may see a slowdown course, so their service may be more negatively impacted.

I think.

I think the US Is looking, one of the things that is part of these changes, looking to consolidate routes.

They used to have morning and afternoon routes in some of these rural areas and looking to bring that down to a single route.

So they're gaining some efficiencies there, reading between the lines.

And here's the other thing, Max, check me here.

As part of these shifts, the USPS expects to save $36 billion over 10 years.

Now, keep in mind, Folks, bring some context.

That number for fiscal year 2024, the USPS lost about 9.5 billion.

So we got some catching up to do.

Max, is all that right?

That checks out.

And yeah, on the delivery side, yeah, if you're bringing it to a post office in a rural area, deliveries, even if you are rural, you might be okay, but it's.

Yeah, if you're starting from a rural point, that's where you probably need to sweat things.

Yeah, gotcha.

All right.

Important distinction there.

Okay, Kevin, your thoughts of these changes, the targeted outcomes, you name it.

Your thoughts?

Well, first of all, the economy is changing to a digital economy.

How many of you got angry when they changed delivering of your bill from a letter to an email, and you missed that email, and then all of a sudden you're behind a payment.

They're forcing people to go to electronic means for a lot of information.

But there's value to being able to get that, you know, plain old letter sometimes.

And that means it's.

You won't be able to get things physical anymore.

You can't deliver your passport through your email.

That's a physical thing that has to be delivered.

So there's going to be a lot of change.

And the home businesses and working from home, there's a lot of businesses that are in rural areas.

So delivery is only one end of the supply chain.

The starting end is all the businesses.

Like my daughter, she has a business where she's a creator and she has to do packages to deliver hats and shirts and, you know, patches.

So it makes it that may put a day on the delivery side when it starts and another day on the other end.

So it's not just a day, it's two days.

That could really hurt a revenue stream.

That's right.

And it's not insignificant, for sure.

And my first business, we were all about training, consulting.

We held a lot of workshops which required a ton of courseware production.

Max and Kevin putting books together.

We had a mini printing shop in our home at Amanda can attest.

We were sending out courseware everywhere and certificates, all this stuff.

Now, not picking on anybody, but we shifted all of our shipping to UPS because we found that the reliability and the traceability and this is, to be fair, this is, you know, 10 years ago, we had much better experience.

It'll be interesting though, Kevin, because there will be some big impact, especially as Max pointing out more on the ruler side of things.

Now, one other thing, we're going to be talking about privatization and getting Max's thoughts.

And folks, for all of these, all these conversations.

We've got a link to the article.

Max's great work.

We got that right in the comments.

We welcome your take.

But here, Barack Jose, the one, only says our pick mail every other month when the mailbox overflows.

He's not incentivized to go out there.

He says nothing significant comes by mail.

Now, Kevin, your example aside, but what I look at my mailbox every day to kind of karaz point is all the business development stuff that I think we're all subsidizing based on, you know, rates and whatnot.

And I think there's probably some changes that could be made there, but that might be debatable.

Yeah, direct mailings bus with junk mail, it seems you go through that pile and, you know, there may be one letter in there that's actually valuable.

Right.

So I don't know, the passport thing too.

It's important.

When we took all the kids and got all the passports done, you know, the US Post Office did a great job.

Our local post office did a great job getting that and getting to us on time.

And of course, ID requirements are changing.

That's another little wrinkle here.

So what about getting your credit card?

I just got my credit card in the email.

Okay, well, hey, not in an email, in regular mail, right?

All right.

So, Max, as promised, I want to get back to this topic of privatization, which, you know, I'm not sure what the odds are of it truly happening, but your thoughts on what privatization of the USPS might look like?

Yeah.

So I talked to a lot of people about this in the past few months, mainly because it's been floated as a possibility by the Trump administration.

They may have pumped the brakes on it a little bit over the past couple of weeks, so we'll see.

But there's no doubt that Trump is really scrutinizing the post office heavily, seeing if there's a way they can get it to not quite have all these annual losses or having it be tied to the government.

So what can we expect if there is an actual privatization?

One big thing is the postal service would probably look to reduce the amount of delivery it does in rural areas, hard to deliver areas.

Think of places like Hawaii and Alaska where you have to have quite a lot of logistics infrastructure to actually make that happen, to make those deliveries happen that private carriers often void or do deliver there.

But there's a lot of added fees involved.

So right now, the post office can't adjust service areas in those areas that much because of its universal service obligation, so it's required to deliver to those places.

If it's privatized, I might not have to do that.

You could also look at maybe closing some more of the rural, low traffic post offices.

You could also see rate increases.

I believe it's a Wells Fargo did an analysis that said postal service pricing could be up to 60% lower than FedEx and UPS.

So there's quite a gap there.

Now, as you mentioned, Scott, may not even be that realistic.

I mean it'd probably be a big multi year undertaking if the Trump administration really wanted to do it.

It's a complex thing for sure.

I mean the post office has been around since this country's founding.

Right.

Even before that, I believe Congress would probably have to be involved and there is some bipartisan support to keep the postal Service around as is.

So it'd be tough for sure.

But it would mean a lot of change, maybe a lot of cuts, a lot of rate increases if that were to happen.

Yeah, Max, excellent information folks.

Again you can check all this out and links we're sharing.

Max is doing the report reporting just a minute ago.

It's interesting to hear him how he spoke with DeGioia a few times.

I mean, Max is plugged in.

Kevin, I don't know.

If I had to place a bet on privatization of the usps, I probably wouldn't bet on that happening.

However, I do firmly believe there is a happy medium middle ground that will perhaps could speed up certain things within the USPS that really need to change.

Like going back to that bulk mail we were talking about a second ago while it protected, you know, people that have made a career where basically there's a win for everybody.

That's the wager that I would bet on what lies ahead for the usps.

Your thoughts?

So the thing that jumps to my mind is that, you know, there's actually a law that guarantees uniform pricing and quality access to all service level areas across the United States.

So someone is going to lose that service.

They will go from having mail to zero mail.

Right.

Just because of where they live.

And when you're talking about providing equal access to governmental services, that's why it is a utility.

You can see that in things like Internet service.

If there's no equal access to Internet, then you have people that have no access to these digital services and you create the haves and the have nots and there are a lot of unintended consequences in that move.

Excellent point.

You're speaking to the digital divide, which is greater than most folks realize.

Here today.

It's excellent points, Kevin.

Max, I love this question that was in the article and I think this came from Aaron Albert.

I think Aaron Albert, founder of isba, who asks, quote, we have to really understand what is the post office.

Is it meant to compete with commercial interests that are out there or is it meant to provide a safety net for things that commercial interests are not interested in, end quote?

Max, that is the trillion dollar question.

Perhaps there's lots of different takes on that and there's also lots of different responsibilities which Kevin's speaking to.

But Max, a final word on potential privatization of the usps.

Yeah, it is a great question and yeah, ultimately that's something that, you know, the administration, Congress, together, that's what Dejoy said.

He said we'd all have to figure it out together, you know, not one direction or the other.

And two, even if, you know, for someone like me who might get a lot of more junk mail in the mail itself, there are also other people who, in rural areas, they rely on that for medicines, for key utility bills, things like that.

So it's sort of a soul searching moment to where, you know, we have to think about, all right, what does the post office provide that maybe private carriers aren't so much interested in?

And if we do really want to go down this path because other countries have gone down this path and you know, it might be a mixed opinion as to whether it's been a success there or not, but we also have to think about the unique aspects of America too.

It's a big country, guys.

Place.

It's a, it's a really big country.

That's right.

But there's another question.

What is success?

Is success making a profit or is success ensuring that no matter where you are in the country, you can get your medicine delivered by mail?

We can set up a whole series on these questions and a whole bunch more because, you know, the USPS is not easy.

It's much like the trade war.

There's so many moving pieces that we need to really think about before we craft policy that is looking to transform things.

Otherwise you get caught up in what's in the blind spot, spot.

And it's just never that simple.

Kevin Max, good stuff.

We got to move on.

One last thought here.

Big show Bob.

Boba gets the last word.

Bob says USPS privatization will lead to no control over how it evolves as a private company.

Service will be curtailed, profit will become the priority and jobs will be lost.

And who would want it?

Great points there.

Big show Bob.

Bob, I hope this finds you and your family well.

Okay, Max and Kevin, we got to talk about one of the most important topics, very timely topic.

De minimis.

De minimis changes.

That doesn't sound right.

Let me go look that one up.

The minimus changes.

So Max got us through the policy changes we're seeing.

So yeah, for those who don't know about this fancy fun word de minimis, but basically it allows shipments less than $800 to enter the US duty free.

So it's really helped cross border shipping thrive in the e commerce era.

Of course, Shein and Temu, they're known for tapping into this role big time along with other online sellers shipping products out of China mainly, but other places too, of course.

Though, as we've discussed, the US And China not doing great.

It's a trade war there now.

So when Trump is going to close off that exemption for shipments from China and Hong Kong on May 2 as part of that, because of risks related to fentanyl crossing the border and those shipments mainly.

So we got that date for China and Hong Kong shipments.

That means those low cost Shein, Temu, but also other goods, low cost GOODS CROSSING the U.S.

are going to get hit with the full scope of tariff guys from the Trump administration.

So that's going to raise shipping costs drastically for companies that have come to really rely on that rule to make their supply chain operations make sense to be able to ship that stuff pretty cheaply cross border.

But you also have to think too beyond China, there's also another piece tucked into one of Trump's orders that says de minimis will go away for all imports from other countries once they have the systems in place to process tariff collection for that volume.

So international e commerce supply chains everywhere, in case you didn't know, change is coming.

And yeah, that's going to continue.

So big cost pressures there potentially for e commerce supply chains, undoubtedly.

Hey, for the sake of time, Kevin, I'm bring you in after Max shares with us.

Four questions, four considerations that shippers got to be considered considering in light of these changes.

And this is another great article Max, you put out there.

But give it to us at a high level, Max.

Yeah, appreciate it.

So yeah, as the story notes, there are kind of four things or questions of note for shippers to figure out how they're impacted.

For now, it's.

Yeah, what's impacted.

We have that firm may 2nd date from China.

So imports are getting hit with that 145% tariff even if you're a sub 800 shipment postal is a little different, but my story covers that.

Another question is how is the market as a whole going to react?

So people I talk to say expect a lot of price increases to come.

We're starting to see Shein, Temu and others confirm that they're making adjustments due to tariff exposure.

And as we know too, prices are typically passed down to us as consumers.

Next is Action Steps.

How do you adapt to that as an importer?

Price hikes are a short term play, but maybe you shift production to other countries like Vietnam or even if de minimis goes away, perhaps your tariffs are less than for products like China, for example.

And then last question, perhaps one I'm thinking about the most is will the exemption even survive long term?

Could we see a scenario where the Trump administration maybe changes its mind and we go back?

Oh, no, never do that.

I know it's starting and stopping all the time.

Right.

So you have to be prepared for that too.

And right now, if I were a betting man, I'd say it's a little doubtful.

But it's also something you have to keep in mind.

So be nimble as well to any of the sorts of changes that might be coming down the pike.

Excellent point, Max and Kevin, yeah, there's lots of, lots of decisions being changed.

And it prompted, you know, we've had this conversation, as y'all might imagine, all year in light of all these changes.

And you know, Kim, Kimberly Reuter shared the best advice because if you have anyone telling you exactly what to do today, exactly predicting the future, you better run the other way.

Wait, folks, wait till everything.

And we get really concrete policy that we can really use as foundational.

We got to wait and see if somebody's shifting sands.

But Kevin, your reaction to these de minimis changes, whether they stick around or they change again.

Are you getting a pair of $700 boots in before the, before the cut over?

Well, first of all, the problem is that we don't have stability in our policies.

So businesses can't make decisions.

And that's going to slow down or bring to a halt our global commerce.

That's the first issue.

Second, it's not just China and it's not just shipments over $800.

DHL out of Germany is going to suspend anything, you know, over $800 to U.S.

customers.

Why?

Because they can no longer create business rules because there is no policy that you can rely on from the United States.

And finally, once again, there's going to be unintended consequences.

There is a lot of medicines.

We were just talking about the mail and being able to get your medicine over the mail.

There are a lot of medicines, not fentanyl but you know, stuff you may need for diabetes or for high blood pressure that comes from Canada.

And you get this double whammy of if it's de minimis, that breaks the de minimis rule and you privatize postal service where they don't deliver anything that's smaller than a, you know, certain size, you know this is going to cause people to die.

So it's not a good look.

I would agree with you in that we need more certainty and you know, as some retail.

In fact as a supply chain dive article we quoted a month or so ago, they interviewed I think 25, five retail CEOs.

Like it might have been retail die, Max, your cousin there.

But you know, one of those retail CEOs said it best.

It is a minute by minute, hour by hour exercise right now.

And global supply chain thrives when there's much more certainty.

Kind of to your point, Kevin, but the good news is there are things, there are things you can do as me is asking about, you know, how can logistics and supply chain professionals prepare?

Well, one thing, little segue here Max is we gotta be very informed.

We gotta know these developments hour by hour.

And you've got great resources from the supply chain dive team that Max brings.

You got these newsletters that go out like the Daily Dive, the Operations Weekly, Procurement Weekly, you name it, Logistics Weekly, Timely one and Max, y'all got a great event coming up on May 7th.

The state of E Commerce delivery.

Talk about timely.

That should be a really good event.

I think you got a diverse panel.

Folks from E Commerce, folks from the analyst world, you name it for this live event on May 7.

Is that right Max?

Absolutely, yeah.

And as well as E Commerce supply chain leaders, we have folks from Wayfair, Dr.

Squatch, DHL, E Commerce coming through as well, cart.com so a lot of top mind in the space.

It's all free so look for it on our website to sign up.

We're going to do even better, Max.

We're going to drop a link to that event right here folks.

You're one click away from learning more and AZ and others that are asking the questions about, you know, how to best prepare for these changes and adapt well beyond getting informed, beyond leaning into conversations like that folks, we've been preaching it forever.

Scenario planning, the technology is remarkable these days.

What we can do, especially with millions of inputs to help help almost.

I don't want to be Too dramatic.

But predicting the future.

We're getting closer and closer.

We'll see.

Sounds like an AI AI bi Emma, you name it.

All the eyes.

Yeah.

Getting aside.

Max, really enjoyed your perspective here today.

Love your reporting.

Thank you for helping keep our industry informed.

How can folks beyond the newsletters we shared, beyond that event we shared, how can folks track you down?

Max Garland, Absolutely.

I'm always around on LinkedIn.

That's typically the best place to reach me on social.

So connect with me there if you want here and discuss all things parcel logistics and last mile delivery.

Often I'm posting on there as well to my latest stories.

So I love talking with the supply chain community.

So want to hear from all of you.

Feel free to connect with me.

Outstanding.

Max Garland, senior reporter with Supply Chain Dive.

Max, thank you for being here.

We look forward to having you back soon.

Soon.

Absolutely.

Thanks guys.

You bet.

Hey, thanks Max.

Kevin, that's good stuff.

We knew that was gonna be a great segment.

Max knows this stuff and really enjoyed the topics we worked through here today.

So folks, Connect with Trisha is helping us out behind the scenes.

As always, connect with Max right there on LinkedIn or follow him, whatever.

The choice is yours.

But I would highly encourage you.

We also dropped, as I mentioned, the link to that event and link to the newsletters and I bet you'll enjoy them like I do.

Okay, Kevin, we've got one more story that we want to hit tied to the trade war.

Are you game for that, Kevin?

There you go, filling up the bag.

Got 11 pounds in his 10 pound bag.

Thank you.

That's right.

Well, we got one more that I think is really, really important.

You know, with the current trade war that we're all getting our diet Coke and popcorn watching from the sidelines while a lot of the folks are right in it between the US And China, I think there's been a ton of talk talk Kevin, industries like automotives and electronics, that's probably dominated a lot of the coverage, at least I've seen.

But I was reading about soybeans over the weekend via the New York Times and folks, you should check out this article.

Now, soybeans is a big export for US farmers and there's lots of concerns on that business given the tariff situation right now.

If you've ever eaten edamame or tofu, well then you've enjoyed soybeans.

Some folks don't make that connection.

I was one.

But what makes soybeans really big business is that it's highly popular food for the world's Livestock.

In fact, the US exported almost $13 billion worth of soybeans just to China in 2024.

In fact, more than half of all US soybeans went to China last year.

How about that?

But with new tariffs, all that becomes much more uncertain.

Vuca.

Right, Vuca, as we were talking pre show, Kevin, Brazil and Argentina, who produce about 52% of the world's soybeans market, well, they're projected by many to continue to grow their exp with China.

In fact, they already have been growing it.

From 2017, which was during the last trade war, to 2024.

China has increased its soybean imports from Brazil alone by 35% and they've cut US soybean imports already.

This is already by 14%.

This is not taking into account the latest rounds of tariffs this time though.

Kevin, get this.

I thought this is a really telling part of this.

Read.

China may well be in position to move the needle even more because since that last, last trade war, the first one in 2017, that kind of caught China by surprise a smidge, since then they've invested about $500 million worth of logistics infrastructure in Brazil, which is going to help them make the adjustment in light of the current tariffs.

So who knows how that impacts the rates of growth when it comes to soybeans.

So Kevin, for the sake of our hard working US farmers, so many so have a lot at stake with this trade war.

I'm hoping we can strike some big deals, but that's a tough one to try to figure out right now.

Your thoughts though, Kevin?

The past is prologue.

This is deja vu.

We've been there before during Trump won when we put the squash on selling soybeans to China and we wound up reaching to our own pockets to subsidize the farmers so they won't go out of business.

It's like, you know, we didn't learn this before.

That's why China is ready this time.

And also China is developing a high protein corn variety that could replace soybeans.

So when the market leaves the US and goes to Brazil or Argentina or Australia or Paraguaguay, which are two other countries that sell soybeans, it's not coming back.

Okay?

It's not coming back.

So folks, y'all should check this out.

That's a great read.

There's so many moving pieces.

There's so little black and white when it comes to global supply chain.

There's so less black and white when it comes to the far reaching implications of the trade war.

So folks, check out this.

Let's all be much more informed as we work our way through this very uncertain time.

And Kara says, hey, Kevin's right.

We have seen this before and this is where Korai wrote about it on March 5th.

Y'all check out this link, folks.

And by the way, if you're not following or connecting with reading what Karak Jose is putting out, you're missing out.

He's got his.

Much like Max and Kevin, they got the finger on the pulse of what's going on in a variety of markets.

And Greg is with us here.

He's gonna get one of the last comments here.

Greg says just shows that China has been preparing for this more so than the usa.

China's been gaining footing in Africa and South America.

America, Greg.

That's right.

And I'm going to say something, but I don't want it to be misconstrued.

I think.

So I'm very careful here.

Maybe be overly diplomatic.

All right.

But Kevin, it's interesting because with a democracy where the White House changes every four years, four years is not a whole bunch of time.

And that's just the White House.

We got, you know, congressional elections every two years and the Senate every six years.

That's lots of leadership that are changing regularly.

And that's probably in a weird way.

It's weird.

I'm going to say this.

It's weird that democratic aspect of government is actually a bit of a disadvantage because I think with China, what we're seeing, they're so dedicated to the big picture and the big vision.

Yes, it's two totally different types of governmental approaches and there's advantages and disadvantages.

But when it comes to the trade war, I'm wondering if our form of government is kind of working against us.

But again, just trying to provoke some thoughts out there.

Kevin, your final word here.

I don't think it's the form of government as much as it is the expertise we have in government.

We may be on a short stick on that this time around.

And that's the problem.

I believe so.

Well, Kevin, if I disappear tomorrow, you'll know why.

Folks, I'm so glad that Kevin could join us here today.

I'm so glad.

Not tomorrow.

I'm so glad that Max Garbage Marlon was here with us as well.

These are some humongous issues of our time.

And who knows, this is just Monday, kind of to Kevin's point.

Who knows what happens tomorrow when the shoe drops in?

But folks, whatever you do, we're going to be here working through all these conversations, these policy changes all the other challenges that our global supply chain community are faced with.

I am a practical optimist and I know there is a path forward and I'm hoping we see a whole bunch of good, effective deal making in the weeks ahead.

We shall see.

But folks, you can find a subscribe supply Chain Now.

Wherever you get your podcast, check out that link.

We're trying to make it really easy for you.

Kevin L.

Jackson, always a pleasure folks.

Make sure you're following and connecting with Kevin across the socials, including Kevin, what's your favorite social channel these days?

You know, actually it seems like X is trying to get its feet back, but it's LinkedIn to be honest, because that's what business has done on LinkedIn.

Then I'm on both.

I'm still, you know, on Facebook and Instagram and the Tik Tok.

I'm everywhere.

Well folks, check out Kevin L.

Jackson across social.

Check out Digital Transformers wherever you get your podcast.

I want to thank Kevin, want to thank Max Garland with Supply Chain Dial.

Man, that was excellent.

Excellent.

Max knows his stuff.

So be sure to connect with Max.

Big thanks to man and Trisha.

Behind the scenes.

I had their hands full today.

I'll tell you, it was a jam packed show.

We did maybe 12 and a half pounds and a 10 pound bag and.

We had the whole world in the house.

We sure did.

But folks, here's the important thing, right?

We had a bunch of views over the last hour, right?

But whatever you do, take one thing you heard here from Kevin and Max, right?

State be informed but do something with that information, right?

It's all about deeds, not words.

That's how we're going to navigate successfully throughout the rest of 2025 and beyond.

And with all that said, on behalf of the entire team here watching now, Scott Luden, challenging you do good, good.

Give forward.

Be the change that's needed.

We'll see you next time right back here on Supply Chain Now.

Thanks.

Join the Supply Chain now community.

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