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Jacob Shapiro: All right,
uh, the cousins together.

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Uh, Marco is joining us
off of a big client call.

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I have a big client call in 50
minutes, so we don't get to luxuriate

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in our normal hour and a half.

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We gotta, we gotta give the people
what they want in 50 minutes

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here, Marco, or let's call it 55.

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Um, we wanted to do a postmortem
on the Iran Israel War.

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Uh, we wanted to talk about how, I
mean, the news cycle's already onto

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the next thing, the crazy things
happening at the NATO summit, which

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there's actually a lot to unpack there.

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Everything from how the Europeans are
treating Donald Trump, uh, versus Japan

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and South Korea, and some of the things
happening on the sidelines, or some of

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the things not happening on the sidelines.

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Um, where, where do you wanna start?

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What do you wanna say first?

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And I, and I'm wearing a tie
'cause I was just on with our

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friend Emray for his CNBC program.

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I know you did it, uh, for them.

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Uh, what, earlier this week or
last week Time has no meaning

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anymore, so that's why I look nice.

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Marko Papic: Um, yeah, so
I, I think, uh, you know, we

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keep delaying our trade value.

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I'm, I'm very disappointed about this.

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We we're, we're so excited to do
top 30 political leaders to draft

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board, uh, but we're gonna have
to delay it a little bit more.

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Uh, obviously I think, uh, we
should dedicate this, uh, to the

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postmortem of what just happened.

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So, uh, where I would wanna start with
first is there's this, uh, big debate

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and I find this fascinating, Jacob.

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Um, there's the big debate whether or
not the nuclear program was obliterated,

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you know, and, um, president Trump
obviously claimed total obliteration.

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And then, uh, there was a leaked,
there was a leaked report from

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the Defense Intelligence Agency,
which by the way, I mean.

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That's, I think, a story in of itself.

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Why is the intelligence community
leaking a report that's top secret

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on their assessment, uh, other
than to embarrass the president?

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Jacob Shapiro: Well, or probably for the
same reason that there was a decoy group

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of bombers that went towards the Pacific.

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And yes, I'm sure that some of
it is to embarrass the president.

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Some of it is also probably, uh,
we don't know who is in Pete Hegg,

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Seth's, uh, WhatsApp groups right now.

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So, I mean, very real, like non-zero
chance you could be getting, you

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know, information somewhere, you know?

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Marko Papic: Yeah.

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Fair, fair.

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Um, so, so look, I mean, but
I think it's a fascinating

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point because this idea that.

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Um, the Iran nuclear program was
set back by mere months, I think

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is like just patently ludicrous.

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That is like objectively just impossible.

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And, uh, I find it hilarious that
some democratic members of Congress

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are latching onto this because their
Trump derangement syndrome is so severe

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that they're actually now becoming.

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Like war Monering neocons in order
to embarrass President Trump.

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So you've got this guy in California
who I don't even know what his name

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is, he's completely irrelevant.

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He's from LA area of Ventura County.

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You can look him up.

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But he came out and said like,
you see, we didn't do enough.

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It's like, okay, so are you calling
for like greater war with Iran?

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It's like, you know,
where, where are we headed?

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Look where I wanna, where I
wanna go with this is, is this.

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Seeing that the attack on the nuclear
program did not a hundred percent

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destroy the nuclear program is like
seeing that the COVID vaccine is

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not a hundred percent effective.

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It's like, yes, that's a fact.

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COVID vaccine is not a
hundred percent effective.

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Like you can still get COVID, you
can even still die, but you should

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still probably take the vaccine.

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And so the reason I say this is because
it's very similar to how like for

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example, the Joe Biden administration.

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Was kind of suggesting that the vaccine
really is super effective and so was Trump

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in a way because policymakers are just
saying like, look, this crisis is over.

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This is the solution we got.

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It's the best one we have just
shut up and take the vaccine.

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Similarly, right now, I can objectively
tell you from everything I know about

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geopolitics, military affairs and like
how science works is you cannot a hundred

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percent obliterate in nuclear program.

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When Israel did it in 1981 by
bombing Alli, Iraq in Iraq, did it

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obliterate the Iraqi nuclear program?

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Well, George W. Bush would say otherwise.

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Jacob Shapiro: I mean, they did both
in Iraq and Syria, but that was because

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they were at a much, much, much,
much earlier stage of the process.

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There was like one,

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Marko Papic: but they didn't, well, they

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Jacob Shapiro: never found evidence
of nuclear weapons in Iraq.

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That was, they didn't find nuclear

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Marko Papic: weapons.

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But there was a nuclear program,
and the reason for this is that a

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nuclear program is not a building.

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A nuclear program is a holistic
combination of factors including human

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capital, fixed capital, some tools,
some toolboxes, and so saying that

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the underground chambers of fordo
are still intact, it's like number

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one, there's no electricity to place.

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It's probably gonna take them months,
if not years, to get back into

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those chambers, and if they move
the uranium out of the chambers.

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This is the part that I just
think is so unfair to Trump.

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They move the uranium because you warn
them, the Israeli intelligence knows

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where the ayatollah goes to the bathroom.

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If they move the uranium, the enriched
uranium out of the underground

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caverns of photo, it suggests to
me that they're now out in the

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open and we know where they are.

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Like, you know, like, relax everyone.

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So yes, it's objectively correct to say
that President Trump was being hyperbolic.

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That's like accusing, you know,
accusing Trump of being hyperbolic

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is like accusing him of being orange.

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This is just how he is.

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The reality is that it's destroyed
enough and that's a fact.

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It is destroyed enough.

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Jacob Shapiro: Yeah, I, uh, I,
I'm, I'm interested in why you're

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focused on this point, because total
obliteration to me, uh, is the exact

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same thing as mission accomplished.

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Any president who pulls off a military
operation is going to have to take

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a victory lap, no matter, like,
the job is not to be accurate about

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what they did, it's to say something
happened and it was successful.

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I think you're right.

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You know, the Democrats just can't
find their way out of a wet paper bag.

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They had one sharp tool.

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That they were starting to use it was
that, um, congressional measure on halting

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US involvement based on war powers.

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And they got a Republican from Kentucky
to sign on and sponsor the bill, but he

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decided since Trump like stopped bombing
already, that he didn't want to do it.

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And so the speaker's not
gonna bring it to the floor.

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And the Republican, uh, from Kentucky,
Thomas Massey, his name is not

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gonna push it forward if, if the
Democrats really wanna like play here.

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The, you're exactly right.

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The wrong thing to do is to
say, ah, nothing happened.

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The right thing to do is to say, Hey.

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This started with the Democrats
with Truman in the Korean War.

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Like we are the original sin of it.

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We have to get Congress back in charge of
when US military force is deployed because

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whether it's President Trump or President
Obama or President Bush or President

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Truman, like we opened up Pandora's Box
and Republicans, you need to work with us.

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To shut Pandora's Box be, and that's
Steve Bannon, Tucker Carlson, all of you.

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We want all of like, yeah, that's
free advice there to the Democrats.

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That's if you want an issue to
play on, it's not gonna happen

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overnight, but like that is the issue.

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Yeah.

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So this is, uh, you should be banging

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Marko Papic: on.

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So Jacob, that's, that's a great point.

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Like, if you want something that's
anti-Trump and that's bipartisan, go

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join up with a Mago camp that didn't
want the attack in the first place.

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That didn't want to be Israel's tail.

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That got wagged by Benjamin Netanyahu's.

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Right dog.

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That's what, like if you have a
problem with this, there's, it's,

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but it seems like the Democrats
just can't quit the NeoCon line.

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This is like Kamala Harris campaigning
with Liz Cheney, which is hilarious to me.

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Like they just don't understand
the country has moved on from this.

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So the media, and by the way, I got
journalists tweeting at me like,

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well, Trump started it by claiming
that it was total obliteration.

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Oh yeah.

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That's, that's why you are leaking
defense intelligent, uh, agency, uh,

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reports that, you know, that's why.

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That's why because of semantics.

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No, you are just so deranged with the
Trump derangement syndrome that you're

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willing to basically take the stance
that he didn't do enough, and therefore

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we need to go into an endless warfare
with Iran over something that clearly has

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been set back by years, if not decades.

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So,

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Jacob Shapiro: yeah.

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But would you say.

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Do you think that it was necessary
for the US to bomb Fordo and

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those other sites to set it back?

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Because I, I think Israel had
already set it back meaningfully.

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I'm not, I'm not sure what else
the United States did, and so then

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like, I want to agree with you and
disagree with you at the same time

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because I think there's a problem.

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With the media and that there is Trump
derangement syndrome, but there's

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another part here, which is what the
Trump administration was pushing.

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And I'm not saying this pejoratively,
it's just an objective fact in multiple

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administrations of both stripes do this.

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Whenever they do a military
operation, they just do it in a

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different style to suit their base.

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It's propaganda.

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The whole thing of total obl
obliteration was propaganda.

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And it is a journalist job
to question propaganda and

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to try and interrogate truth.

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And so if the justification for bombing
the Iranian nuclear sites was we're

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going to obliterate the Iranian nuclear
program, and then you get the Iranian,

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uh, you get the propaganda, it is
a journalist function to push back

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against the, the propaganda itself.

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Um, and I think that's where Trump
gets into trouble because they

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made it about the nuclear deal.

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When I. Think what really happened, and
we talked about this, was Israel struck

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Iran, uh, Trump and Fareed Zakaria's
point of view, had that fomo, foreign

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policy, wanted to look tough, didn't
wanna slap the Israelis down in public.

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And so he created this
thing and went forward.

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And so I think you're right
that the media's focusing.

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On the wrong thing in that sense.

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But I do think there was a journalistic
function to say, okay, we get it.

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Like total obliteration.

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But that wasn't even the
point in the first place.

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Whoa, there's this relationship
with Israel going back and forward.

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And there was that one reporter who
got Trump to say, I dunno if you saw

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this, uh uh, I'm sure you saw this.

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I mean, this was incredible.

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Where he basically, you know, they
asked him if he was mad at the

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Israelis for violating the ceasefire,
and he said, these two countries

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have been fighting for so long.

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They don't know what
the fuck they're doing.

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Yeah, exactly.

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And I, and I honestly wanted
to stop it right there and

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be like, let Trump be Trump.

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Get rid of all the advisors.

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Like that's the best foreign policy.

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Brief agree on Israel, Iran relations.

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I've heard in years, they
don't know what they're doing.

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Like, just like, stop guys, listen.

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I, like I, and I think all this other
stuff around him gets in the way of it.

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Marko Papic: Right.

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But that's where the criticism
of the semantics is idiotic.

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So, no.

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Mm-hmm.

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I think if you're a journalist attacking
the total obliteration, you're not, I

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mean, yeah, sure, you're doing your job
like, but I still think you're an idiot.

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And here's why.

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Because well be, because who, who cares?

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Like he didn't like Yes.

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Was, was it necessary to drop.

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This massive ordinance in Fordo.

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I mean on some say yeah.

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Objectively.

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Why not?

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Why not also do that on Passant
since Israel already started it.

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But the real reason that that
was done is so that the US gets

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leverage over both Israel and Iran.

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So, and that's, and that's
something he can't publicly say.

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Jacob Shapiro: Right?

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And that, and it's the job of the
journalist to try and get that, and

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if not unearth that from him to Right.

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But they're not doing that else.

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Marko Papic: But they're not doing that.

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No,

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Jacob Shapiro: I agree.

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That's why I said agree and disagree.

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Like I don't want to throw out
the function of journalists while

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also criticizing like how the
journalists are doing things.

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And it also like in that very narrow
sense like you and I are trying to

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do what journalists should be doing.

242
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Yeah.

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Like instead of like some part of our
job, instead of analyzing what's going

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on, we also know have to be truth seekers.

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It used to be you could rely on
journalists to a certain degree to

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try and ascertain truth, and then you
could take a step back and do analysis.

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But our job has gotten infinitely
harder because you can't even trust

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the truth function that the journalism
is sending out because it's, you know,

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depending on who the reporter is or
what outlet they're with, they have

250
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all these other different things.

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I also wanna push back against one.

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Okay.

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No, go, go ahead.

254
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No, I'll push back on

255
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Marko Papic: something.

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No, no, no.

257
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Finish.

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Finish.

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There.

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Jacob Shapiro: Just the uranium thing.

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I don't think that's, that's, um, I
don't think it's quite that simple.

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00:12:39,975 --> 00:12:43,035
Like uranium doesn't breathe,
it doesn't make phone calls.

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These cylinders can be stored in,
uh, my understanding is that they

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can be stored in things that are
basically, you know, 55 pounds roughly.

265
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So something that you could
theoretically get out and like send

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it in a bunch of different directions.

267
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Um, and if we don't
know where it is or if.

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If it has been moved all over the
place, then you're absolutely right.

269
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Not only is does the Iranian
nuclear program still live, it

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can be given to other groups.

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It can be given to terrorists.

272
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Like where, where is it gonna end up?

273
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Especially if we have regime
change in Iran that is coming.

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We'll get to that in a second.

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Like the question of where
the uranium is, is one that.

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Is a little bit disturbing to me, and I'm
not sure that it's quite as easy to track

277
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down a 55 pound, you know, uh, canister of
stuff, especially when you're tracking, I

278
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don't know how many of them, is it like 16
of them or something like that, enough for

279
00:13:29,484 --> 00:13:33,415
10 nuclear bombs rather than just tracking
180 6-year-old dude who probably can't

280
00:13:33,415 --> 00:13:35,964
be too far away from the bathroom for
too long without something bad happening.

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Marko Papic: I, I, I, I would
push back massively on that look.

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I mean, Israel has destroyed radar
installations that also don't breathe.

283
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They've destroyed, um, you know, uh, they,
they've known the movements of all the

284
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different, um, you know, uh, scientists.

285
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I mean, it's just, it's just
the reason Fordo is important is

286
00:13:57,360 --> 00:13:59,880
because 80 meters underground,
you can store something in it.

287
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Once you have to pull that out of that,
that's where it's out in the open.

288
00:14:04,170 --> 00:14:07,410
Do we know where the 50
pound pound, you know, bag of

289
00:14:07,439 --> 00:14:09,449
enriched uranium is right now?

290
00:14:09,930 --> 00:14:11,790
Do we know like, no, but we will find out.

291
00:14:12,135 --> 00:14:15,645
Because one thing we know for a
certain is that this country leaks

292
00:14:15,645 --> 00:14:21,735
like a sieve, like the Iranian navy,
sorry, the Iranian government leaks

293
00:14:21,915 --> 00:14:24,015
like, like, like their navy does.

294
00:14:24,135 --> 00:14:28,005
So I'm just not too concerned about
that because it's a, it's a, it's, it's

295
00:14:28,005 --> 00:14:29,564
this idea that it's now disappeared.

296
00:14:29,564 --> 00:14:33,525
Well, evils in fordo for a
reason, it was protected there.

297
00:14:33,915 --> 00:14:35,145
Now it's out in the open.

298
00:14:35,145 --> 00:14:35,535
Yes.

299
00:14:35,535 --> 00:14:38,025
There's, there's a
element of mystery of it.

300
00:14:38,880 --> 00:14:41,340
I am personally comfortable
with that level of mystery.

301
00:14:41,430 --> 00:14:46,350
And what Trump is basically
saying by using hyperbole is

302
00:14:46,350 --> 00:14:49,620
that he just doesn't want to hear
any more arguments about this.

303
00:14:49,830 --> 00:14:53,100
And he really is not talking
to American audience.

304
00:14:53,490 --> 00:14:54,660
He's talking to Israel.

305
00:14:56,280 --> 00:15:00,780
He's saying like, listen, stop using
your sources in American media to

306
00:15:00,780 --> 00:15:03,630
leak government, government, uh, like.

307
00:15:05,490 --> 00:15:09,540
Reports so that you can build a
case for an endless war that we are

308
00:15:09,540 --> 00:15:11,250
supposed to wage on your behalf.

309
00:15:11,310 --> 00:15:15,900
That is what's being said, I think with
President Trump, and I find it interesting

310
00:15:15,900 --> 00:15:17,220
that nobody's picking up on that.

311
00:15:17,250 --> 00:15:21,090
There's this like a phony of voices that's
saying like, well, no, we need to do more.

312
00:15:21,420 --> 00:15:24,870
The same, the same voices in some
cases, particularly on the journalist

313
00:15:24,870 --> 00:15:28,560
side, who two weeks ago were saying
the US should not get involved.

314
00:15:29,130 --> 00:15:31,260
And I think that that's, that's
what's interesting to me.

315
00:15:31,260 --> 00:15:34,320
This flip-flopping on, on
how to make Trump look bad.

316
00:15:34,875 --> 00:15:35,685
Yes, you're right.

317
00:15:35,715 --> 00:15:37,875
That statement in front of the
White House is he was boarding the

318
00:15:37,875 --> 00:15:40,365
plane sink to both sides, like they
didn't know what they're doing.

319
00:15:40,965 --> 00:15:43,935
I think that that was a clear
signal, you know, and he actually

320
00:15:43,935 --> 00:15:45,195
went after Israel really hard.

321
00:15:45,195 --> 00:15:50,505
So the reason he bombed Fordo, the reason
the United States bombed Fordo is to tell

322
00:15:50,505 --> 00:15:52,665
Israel like, okay, you know, we did it.

323
00:15:54,070 --> 00:15:54,570
That's it.

324
00:15:55,950 --> 00:15:59,490
And we're not gonna, you,
you got us into this.

325
00:15:59,490 --> 00:16:02,430
Well done Chapo, like well done.

326
00:16:02,670 --> 00:16:04,080
But now, now it's game over.

327
00:16:04,320 --> 00:16:07,050
And in particular, I think
that this is something that we

328
00:16:07,050 --> 00:16:08,640
discussed on the podcast as well.

329
00:16:09,000 --> 00:16:13,290
The longer this conflict went on,
the leverage us has over, uh, Israel

330
00:16:13,290 --> 00:16:15,810
increases due to the munitions.

331
00:16:16,350 --> 00:16:20,340
Uh, I focused on the offensive munitions,
uh, wall Street Journal did a great job.

332
00:16:20,520 --> 00:16:20,970
There you go.

333
00:16:20,970 --> 00:16:22,680
I, I can also give props to journalists.

334
00:16:23,265 --> 00:16:27,375
They did a great job about 10
days ago where they focused on the

335
00:16:27,375 --> 00:16:31,605
stockpile of defensive munitions,
particularly the aero missiles

336
00:16:31,605 --> 00:16:33,015
that intercept ballistic missiles.

337
00:16:33,435 --> 00:16:37,305
And so yeah, Israel is running out
and so now President Trump's leverage

338
00:16:37,305 --> 00:16:40,845
is increasing and he's effectively
telling Israel like, okay, that's it.

339
00:16:41,265 --> 00:16:44,925
That's why US bond four though,
not necessarily because there's

340
00:16:44,925 --> 00:16:47,415
a hundred percent effectiveness,
but I would again argue that's.

341
00:16:47,895 --> 00:16:48,855
That's also a bar.

342
00:16:48,855 --> 00:16:50,204
That's, that's just way too high.

343
00:16:50,204 --> 00:16:53,235
How are you gonna kill every
single human being in Iran who

344
00:16:53,235 --> 00:16:54,885
like, has taken a physics course?

345
00:16:54,944 --> 00:16:55,785
You know, like, yeah.

346
00:16:56,834 --> 00:17:00,795
Jacob Shapiro: Well, and I, I think
that's a pretty high price to pay for what

347
00:17:00,824 --> 00:17:02,324
the United States accomplished in Iran.

348
00:17:02,324 --> 00:17:05,619
So maybe we, we, I. Put a pin in on
this, like, um, maybe I give you my

349
00:17:05,619 --> 00:17:08,319
scenarios going forward and you gimme
scenarios and then we can turn to nato.

350
00:17:08,349 --> 00:17:11,109
'cause in some ways, I mean, that's
like the new thing and in some ways

351
00:17:11,109 --> 00:17:13,540
more important I think globally
and especially for our listeners.

352
00:17:13,540 --> 00:17:17,200
But I've got three scenarios left
on my, on my sheet right now, and

353
00:17:17,200 --> 00:17:19,990
they're all about Iranian domestic
politics and how Iran responds to

354
00:17:19,990 --> 00:17:21,159
what, what just happened to it.

355
00:17:21,369 --> 00:17:22,960
I think the most likely IST status quo.

356
00:17:23,730 --> 00:17:25,260
Um, that the regime survives.

357
00:17:25,260 --> 00:17:27,420
Like it showed impressive
resilience considering

358
00:17:27,420 --> 00:17:28,500
everything that happened to it.

359
00:17:28,800 --> 00:17:31,410
Uh, the mark of a, of a strong
regime is actually one that's able

360
00:17:31,410 --> 00:17:34,020
to take a punch and then counter
punch, and that's what they did.

361
00:17:34,020 --> 00:17:38,640
They took a really, really hard punch
from the Israelis and then they refocused

362
00:17:38,640 --> 00:17:41,700
and they reorganized, and then they
started hitting Israel and making it hurt.

363
00:17:41,700 --> 00:17:44,100
So that shows me that there's
some resilience there that maybe

364
00:17:44,100 --> 00:17:45,240
was unappreciated interesting.

365
00:17:45,270 --> 00:17:49,179
I think there's also a. A scenario
where we go full North Korea.

366
00:17:49,389 --> 00:17:53,290
The, the Russians didn't help us, the
Chinese didn't help us, nobody helped us.

367
00:17:53,290 --> 00:17:57,490
We're just gonna lock it up full on
authoritarianism, nuclear weapons as

368
00:17:57,490 --> 00:18:00,310
quickly as possible, like we are the
hermit kingdom of the Middle East.

369
00:18:00,490 --> 00:18:04,120
Or there's the NeoCon wet dream,
which is the people rise up.

370
00:18:04,725 --> 00:18:05,985
Liberalizing regime.

371
00:18:06,165 --> 00:18:08,505
Sure, this will be an ally of the
United States going forward, but I,

372
00:18:08,535 --> 00:18:11,505
the reason I say it's a high cost
to bomb four oh to get the Israelis

373
00:18:11,505 --> 00:18:13,005
to stop, and they didn't even stop.

374
00:18:13,005 --> 00:18:14,805
I don't think the Israelis
think that they need to stop.

375
00:18:14,805 --> 00:18:18,165
If anything, I think they are convinced
that they could do whatever they want.

376
00:18:18,165 --> 00:18:21,165
Now once, okay, let's restock the
munitions, then we can do this again in 12

377
00:18:21,165 --> 00:18:22,755
months because we found the yellow cake.

378
00:18:22,905 --> 00:18:25,755
It moved from four oh to this other
site, so we're gonna hit it again.

379
00:18:25,755 --> 00:18:29,445
I can hear it going already, but in
all of my scenarios, Iran sprints

380
00:18:29,445 --> 00:18:30,525
to a nuclear weapon quicker.

381
00:18:31,080 --> 00:18:32,280
I think that was the cost of this.

382
00:18:32,280 --> 00:18:36,120
You've basically just given any future
Iranian regime, even one that is liberal

383
00:18:36,120 --> 00:18:40,710
and friendly to women and homosexuals,
like they will also still want a nuclear

384
00:18:40,710 --> 00:18:44,310
weapon because the United States, unlike
in Russia, Ukraine, unlike in India,

385
00:18:44,310 --> 00:18:47,639
Pakistan, unlike in any of the other
conflicts of, of the past couple of

386
00:18:47,639 --> 00:18:51,240
years, like this was direct US involvement
and a different conversation has to be

387
00:18:51,240 --> 00:18:55,649
had in foreign capitals and in analyst
circles in those different cities.

388
00:18:55,649 --> 00:18:56,610
When you're talking about.

389
00:18:57,389 --> 00:18:59,760
Threat of the United States
and what the risks are and

390
00:18:59,760 --> 00:19:00,810
how to sort of deal with them.

391
00:19:00,810 --> 00:19:02,700
So what, what's your takeaway?

392
00:19:03,840 --> 00:19:05,850
Marko Papic: Yeah, I think
broadly, I agree with everything.

393
00:19:05,879 --> 00:19:12,060
What I'm, what I'm fascinated by
is how this regime is just really

394
00:19:12,060 --> 00:19:14,070
non monolithic and hasn't been.

395
00:19:14,399 --> 00:19:18,929
Um, you know, in 1980 to 1988, I keep
going back to the Irani Rock War.

396
00:19:18,929 --> 00:19:19,980
Half a million people died.

397
00:19:20,550 --> 00:19:21,780
Everyone's on Saddam's side.

398
00:19:21,780 --> 00:19:26,429
I mean, everybody, Soviet Union and
America are aligned together against Iran.

399
00:19:26,850 --> 00:19:28,950
How does Iran respond after 1988?

400
00:19:30,450 --> 00:19:33,300
Do they triple down on isolation?

401
00:19:33,330 --> 00:19:34,320
Well, actually no.

402
00:19:34,320 --> 00:19:40,065
They, they take their licks, you
know, I. Men gendering, sorry.

403
00:19:40,545 --> 00:19:44,805
But they take their legs and they,
um, proceed with actually a period of

404
00:19:44,805 --> 00:19:48,585
opening to the rest of the world in the
1990s, which is weird because they did

405
00:19:48,585 --> 00:19:50,385
also support terrorism at the same time.

406
00:19:50,385 --> 00:19:54,555
So you have the Buenos Aires attack,
um, as an example, which clearly

407
00:19:54,555 --> 00:20:00,105
was, um, linked to Iranian regime
and Hezbollah, but the presidency

408
00:20:00,135 --> 00:20:03,435
of r Sanja was quite moderate.

409
00:20:04,110 --> 00:20:07,590
In the nineties, and it led to some
opening with the rest of the world.

410
00:20:07,590 --> 00:20:11,939
So, you know, I wouldn't be surprised
if your first scenario where the regime

411
00:20:11,939 --> 00:20:18,179
survives, which is your base case, also
includes a domestic internal pivot.

412
00:20:19,005 --> 00:20:23,535
I mean, look, if you are a member of the
Iranian Elite right now, first of all,

413
00:20:23,535 --> 00:20:25,575
you got completely punched in the face.

414
00:20:26,295 --> 00:20:28,005
Second of all, you're
looking around the region.

415
00:20:28,185 --> 00:20:29,535
What are other countries doing?

416
00:20:29,535 --> 00:20:32,775
They're, they're taking
account of their demographics.

417
00:20:32,835 --> 00:20:35,925
Like Saudi Arabia woke up one day
and was like, look, I mean 70%

418
00:20:35,925 --> 00:20:38,205
of the countries under the age of
35, like, what are we doing here?

419
00:20:39,195 --> 00:20:44,265
And so I could see a similar sort
of, not North Korea scenario,

420
00:20:44,505 --> 00:20:45,555
but rather the opposite.

421
00:20:45,930 --> 00:20:49,530
Taking a page out of the 1990s
where President r and Johnny was

422
00:20:49,530 --> 00:20:54,090
actually quite, you know, like
not liberal, but quite reformist.

423
00:20:54,480 --> 00:20:59,520
I mean, he actually ended up award the
2009 in opposition, uh, which cost him

424
00:20:59,520 --> 00:21:01,125
off obviously his political career.

425
00:21:02,909 --> 00:21:03,240
Jacob Shapiro: You know?

426
00:21:03,720 --> 00:21:04,020
Yeah.

427
00:21:04,020 --> 00:21:07,440
And, and it's a really important
point because another historical

428
00:21:07,440 --> 00:21:10,169
analogy and all historical
analogies are fraught and imperfect.

429
00:21:10,470 --> 00:21:13,800
But I think what happened to Egypt over
the second half of the 20th century

430
00:21:13,800 --> 00:21:15,840
is actually, um, somewhat explanatory.

431
00:21:16,020 --> 00:21:19,350
You can explain the opening in the
1990s because of the unique nature

432
00:21:19,350 --> 00:21:22,649
of the Islamic, uh, of, of the
Iranian revolution, which was they

433
00:21:22,649 --> 00:21:24,690
set up parallel political structures.

434
00:21:24,720 --> 00:21:28,110
There was the clerics
protected by the IRGC.

435
00:21:28,110 --> 00:21:30,870
The job of the IRGC is literally
to protect the revolution.

436
00:21:31,105 --> 00:21:33,415
Now they've, they've expanded
into Hezbollah and everything

437
00:21:33,415 --> 00:21:35,845
else, but their original purpose
was protect the revolution.

438
00:21:35,845 --> 00:21:39,745
And then you had, you, you still have
quote unquote, democratic elections in

439
00:21:39,745 --> 00:21:44,065
Iran and you have, you know, civilian
politics and they are not the same thing.

440
00:21:44,425 --> 00:21:44,605
Yes.

441
00:21:44,754 --> 00:21:47,125
And the IRGC was always supposed
to be separate from that.

442
00:21:47,125 --> 00:21:51,280
And what happened beginning with
President Ahmadinejad was that the IRGC.

443
00:21:52,195 --> 00:21:56,425
Started metastasizing into all these
other arenas of the Iranian state and

444
00:21:56,425 --> 00:21:57,685
economy that they weren't supposed to.

445
00:21:57,715 --> 00:22:00,084
They were supposed to stay in their
box and protect the clerics and

446
00:22:00,084 --> 00:22:01,554
protect the virtue of the revolution.

447
00:22:01,554 --> 00:22:06,955
Then they slowly started swallowing,
um, you know, businesses, the economy.

448
00:22:07,575 --> 00:22:10,875
Uh, even like the external, uh,
military functions that were supposed

449
00:22:10,875 --> 00:22:13,485
to be with the Iranian military, and
you get to the point where the IRGC

450
00:22:13,485 --> 00:22:17,055
controls like something to 50 to
60% of the Iranian economy by most

451
00:22:17,055 --> 00:22:18,705
eth uh, by most estimates right now.

452
00:22:18,705 --> 00:22:22,995
So no matter what happens, unless you
kill all the IRGC, which is not possible.

453
00:22:23,660 --> 00:22:24,710
The IRGC is gonna be there.

454
00:22:24,710 --> 00:22:29,270
And I make the analogy to Egypt because
think of what, what started in Egypt with

455
00:22:29,270 --> 00:22:34,340
Gamal Abdel Nasser, a coup, a charismatic
politician who gives this Arab nationalism

456
00:22:34,340 --> 00:22:38,930
and socialism, and he dominates for, you
know, 10, 15, 20 years, whatever it was.

457
00:22:39,110 --> 00:22:42,170
But when he dies, and you know,
eventually Sadad is assassinated

458
00:22:42,170 --> 00:22:43,190
because he makes peace with Israel.

459
00:22:43,190 --> 00:22:45,050
It's the Egyptian
military that takes over.

460
00:22:45,110 --> 00:22:46,610
Now, Nasser was a military offer.

461
00:22:46,710 --> 00:22:47,640
Officer himself.

462
00:22:47,640 --> 00:22:50,940
But when you look at Egypt today,
it's a military dictatorship and

463
00:22:50,940 --> 00:22:53,610
one that is relatively stable, but
the military is calling the shots.

464
00:22:53,850 --> 00:22:55,830
I think that's maybe the model here.

465
00:22:55,830 --> 00:22:58,590
If you're the IRGC, it's like we've
already taken over the economy.

466
00:22:58,590 --> 00:22:59,490
Thanks, aog.

467
00:22:59,790 --> 00:23:02,490
Now we've got all these other things,
the supreme leader's about to die.

468
00:23:02,490 --> 00:23:03,720
We'll put in a figurehead.

469
00:23:03,930 --> 00:23:07,135
We are gonna dominate, and once we
no longer have to watch our backs and

470
00:23:07,135 --> 00:23:10,110
we're completely in control of this,
we can behave like Egypt does today.

471
00:23:10,620 --> 00:23:13,110
We can go out and deal with
the world in general like that.

472
00:23:13,110 --> 00:23:14,580
That I think is a path forward for them.

473
00:23:15,135 --> 00:23:17,835
Marko Papic: That's the irony,
Jacob, because General Soleimani,

474
00:23:17,865 --> 00:23:20,925
who was assassinated by the US
was on his way to doing that.

475
00:23:21,105 --> 00:23:23,745
I mean, there were rumors he
was going to run for presidency.

476
00:23:24,075 --> 00:23:26,985
He was extremely popular
just in Iran in general.

477
00:23:27,045 --> 00:23:32,235
Charismatic guy, very successful in the
uh, insurgency against the US and Iraq.

478
00:23:32,879 --> 00:23:39,030
Um, and so then he was assassinated and
IRGC kinda lost that face, but you're

479
00:23:39,030 --> 00:23:40,590
right, uh, there are many others.

480
00:23:40,680 --> 00:23:43,200
Uh, there was a mayor of
Tehran, I forgot his name, who

481
00:23:43,200 --> 00:23:45,060
was also IRGC, uh, commander.

482
00:23:45,060 --> 00:23:47,040
In the past life, there are.

483
00:23:47,909 --> 00:23:51,030
There are models of this
that can, that can definitely

484
00:23:51,030 --> 00:23:51,959
emerge as quickly, it doesn't

485
00:23:51,959 --> 00:23:54,270
Jacob Shapiro: matter who it is,
it's an institutional dictatorship.

486
00:23:54,510 --> 00:23:54,570
Yeah.

487
00:23:54,600 --> 00:23:58,800
Rather than this weird bifurcated
half democratic half theocratic thing.

488
00:23:58,800 --> 00:24:02,370
So I, I'm sure, I think, I think the
Iranian revolution dies with Ale Khomeini

489
00:24:02,760 --> 00:24:05,730
and it becomes a, like a military
dictatorship, just like any other

490
00:24:05,730 --> 00:24:07,020
military dictatorship in the world.

491
00:24:07,020 --> 00:24:09,750
If it's the status quo, you know,
of course there, there's that NeoCon

492
00:24:09,750 --> 00:24:11,189
wet dream lurking in the background.

493
00:24:11,189 --> 00:24:13,110
But that was always a hail Mary.

494
00:24:13,250 --> 00:24:16,250
Marko Papic: And I think their military
dictatorship, uh, will be very rational.

495
00:24:16,250 --> 00:24:21,530
But to your point, military dictatorship
will obviously want to pursue a nuclear

496
00:24:21,530 --> 00:24:22,850
weapon given what just happened.

497
00:24:23,179 --> 00:24:26,419
And so I do think that the negotiations
are going to be very interesting.

498
00:24:27,439 --> 00:24:30,860
You know, the United States of
America has to now really think

499
00:24:30,860 --> 00:24:33,320
about what it can give Iran.

500
00:24:33,675 --> 00:24:39,045
In order to avoid them becoming, going
for the breakout because the, the thing

501
00:24:39,045 --> 00:24:41,865
is, US still does have leverage and
the leverage is like, look, we just

502
00:24:41,865 --> 00:24:43,425
figure out your S3 hundreds don't work.

503
00:24:43,875 --> 00:24:45,735
You have no air defense capabilities.

504
00:24:45,735 --> 00:24:51,435
We can mow the grass, you know, every
couple of years if we have to, every

505
00:24:51,435 --> 00:24:54,465
couple of years that you get a little
bit more sophisticated on the nuclear

506
00:24:54,465 --> 00:24:55,725
program, we'll just mow it down.

507
00:24:56,235 --> 00:24:59,565
So, uh, you know, I do think there can
be a grand bargain between the two.

508
00:25:01,500 --> 00:25:06,390
This goes back to my point from the
last podcast we did, and a moral

509
00:25:06,840 --> 00:25:12,450
foreign policy allows the US to make
those kind of deals with rivals that

510
00:25:12,450 --> 00:25:15,600
it disagrees with in terms of how
they treat the population or whatever.

511
00:25:15,600 --> 00:25:21,030
And that's where I think it'll, it'll it,
it could be a coup of grant proportions

512
00:25:21,030 --> 00:25:25,050
for President Trump to really show his
chops in negotiation if he can create

513
00:25:25,140 --> 00:25:30,570
a grand bargain with Iran that ensures
that whatever that regime evolves into.

514
00:25:30,960 --> 00:25:32,550
It doesn't produce a nuclear weapon.

515
00:25:33,585 --> 00:25:33,915
Jacob Shapiro: It's a bar.

516
00:25:33,915 --> 00:25:35,355
I'm thinking more about
that point that you made.

517
00:25:35,415 --> 00:25:38,145
Uh, it is a high bar and I, I've been
thinking more about that point you

518
00:25:38,145 --> 00:25:41,115
made about the amoral foreign policy
and actually maybe President Trump

519
00:25:41,115 --> 00:25:43,995
is the right person for it, that
that White House thing he did where

520
00:25:43,995 --> 00:25:45,315
he was castigating, both of them.

521
00:25:45,645 --> 00:25:48,645
Like I said, I wanted to isolate him
from all his advisors and all the

522
00:25:48,645 --> 00:25:50,925
polls and everything else and just be
like, if that's your instinct, like.

523
00:25:51,075 --> 00:25:53,145
That's the instinct I would
like start with, if I was

524
00:25:53,145 --> 00:25:54,135
starting the briefing with you.

525
00:25:54,135 --> 00:25:55,425
That's the sentence I would start with.

526
00:25:55,425 --> 00:25:57,045
And then we would go to
like what your goals are.

527
00:25:57,045 --> 00:25:57,675
Like really great.

528
00:25:57,675 --> 00:25:58,575
So you already know it.

529
00:25:58,575 --> 00:26:00,435
You don't need to listen
to cousins President Trump.

530
00:26:00,765 --> 00:26:01,395
That's fine.

531
00:26:01,575 --> 00:26:03,255
But you have to sell that
to the American people.

532
00:26:03,435 --> 00:26:06,885
And the American people in his base are
not a moral, and this very, you saw this

533
00:26:06,885 --> 00:26:10,335
in the Ted Cruz interview, you saw this in
all of the talk around this going into it.

534
00:26:10,485 --> 00:26:11,625
This is not a moral at all.

535
00:26:11,625 --> 00:26:13,125
If anything, it is super moral.

536
00:26:13,275 --> 00:26:14,175
It is righteous.

537
00:26:14,205 --> 00:26:16,605
It's part of of especially in.

538
00:26:17,715 --> 00:26:21,945
Well, very important part of the base of,
without which Trump doesn't have anything.

539
00:26:21,945 --> 00:26:25,335
So in the same way that FDR had to
sell foreign policy to the American

540
00:26:25,335 --> 00:26:27,765
people and wait for a moment, which
he got something like, president Trump

541
00:26:27,765 --> 00:26:29,205
is constrained by the same things.

542
00:26:29,205 --> 00:26:33,855
He cannot just snap his fingers and say,
I'm gonna be a moral, and then go to

543
00:26:33,855 --> 00:26:36,435
the base who are just like, well, wait,
we thought this was part of the soul.

544
00:26:36,585 --> 00:26:39,255
So I'm, I'm just saying like he
is subject to the same constraints

545
00:26:39,255 --> 00:26:40,935
as any American president

546
00:26:41,235 --> 00:26:43,815
Marko Papic: I know, but I, I think
the median voter has moved on.

547
00:26:44,175 --> 00:26:47,565
So I think that President Trump
is far more in line with where the

548
00:26:47,565 --> 00:26:53,205
median voter is than, and, and I think
who, who is President Trump's base.

549
00:26:53,685 --> 00:26:59,054
Is it the sort of moralistic neocons
like Ted Cruz, or is it the MAGA

550
00:26:59,054 --> 00:27:00,524
camp, or is it the MAGA camp?

551
00:27:00,524 --> 00:27:04,004
You know, which is, which we've seen
in some of the commentary over the

552
00:27:04,004 --> 00:27:07,004
past several weeks where they're
seeing like, why are we in this fight?

553
00:27:07,034 --> 00:27:09,345
Why are we letting Israel
draw us into their conflict?

554
00:27:09,915 --> 00:27:13,784
It's, it's, it's, it's not talking
about like, well, Israel's a democracy.

555
00:27:13,784 --> 00:27:14,835
It's a friend of ours.

556
00:27:14,835 --> 00:27:17,865
It's a li like, I mean, a
lot of things that, you know,

557
00:27:18,585 --> 00:27:19,814
people may disagree with, but.

558
00:27:20,429 --> 00:27:23,699
It's a democracy that's the most
liberal regime in the Middle East.

559
00:27:23,699 --> 00:27:27,600
Again, caveats here, I'm just
saying what Juan might say.

560
00:27:27,605 --> 00:27:28,350
Jacob Shapiro: Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah.

561
00:27:28,740 --> 00:27:32,550
Marko Papic: And that MAGA camp,
I think is more in line with the

562
00:27:32,580 --> 00:27:36,090
Bernie Sanders voters, and I think
that there is, the median voter in

563
00:27:36,090 --> 00:27:40,379
the US is becoming much more aligned
with that kind of Machiavellian,

564
00:27:40,439 --> 00:27:42,120
real politic foreign policy.

565
00:27:42,540 --> 00:27:45,600
And we've seen President Trump
abandon parts of his base on

566
00:27:45,600 --> 00:27:48,540
different issues before, and
this may be one of those as well.

567
00:27:48,629 --> 00:27:49,230
So that's.

568
00:27:49,740 --> 00:27:50,460
That's what's interesting.

569
00:27:50,460 --> 00:27:53,190
But one thing, one thing by the
way, I just want to, uh, before

570
00:27:53,190 --> 00:27:55,800
we pivot to NATO and other things,
there's two things I wanna say.

571
00:27:56,280 --> 00:28:01,410
One, one of, uh, one of our listeners,
uh, from last podcast criticized, uh,

572
00:28:01,410 --> 00:28:06,300
one of the points I made, which is that
President Trump was generally speaking,

573
00:28:06,360 --> 00:28:10,530
uh, doing right things in with this,
with this particular conflict in mind.

574
00:28:10,530 --> 00:28:14,190
I think that's proven correct by him
going after both Israel and Iran.

575
00:28:14,550 --> 00:28:15,510
Clearly he is.

576
00:28:16,590 --> 00:28:19,530
Amoral in this, but we should
probably use a different term and

577
00:28:19,530 --> 00:28:22,950
just say he's being real politic,
realist, whatever you wanna call it.

578
00:28:23,460 --> 00:28:25,170
But one of our listeners
was like, but wait a minute,

579
00:28:25,170 --> 00:28:26,730
what about leaving J-C-P-O-A?

580
00:28:29,220 --> 00:28:33,240
So, yes, yes, dear, dear
listener, you are correct.

581
00:28:33,750 --> 00:28:35,910
Uh, that was, that was stupid.

582
00:28:36,990 --> 00:28:39,240
I will, well, it, that,
that was unnecessary.

583
00:28:39,240 --> 00:28:43,320
There was just no need to leave
J-C-P-O-A, uh, Iranian in Richmond.

584
00:28:43,320 --> 00:28:44,130
Was it zero?

585
00:28:45,345 --> 00:28:47,774
Yes, the, the deal would expire anyways.

586
00:28:48,044 --> 00:28:51,465
There was a moment where he
could have renegotiated, uh,

587
00:28:51,465 --> 00:28:52,875
there was a way to renegotiate.

588
00:28:52,875 --> 00:28:56,745
I mean, there was a way to impose or so
like get better terms, but leaving it

589
00:28:56,745 --> 00:28:59,294
Jacob Shapiro: and remember that,
that that was Trump won where he was

590
00:28:59,294 --> 00:29:04,125
surrounded by Bolton and the coterie of
neocons who used the Iran issue, both on

591
00:29:04,125 --> 00:29:05,804
the campaign trail to get him elected.

592
00:29:05,835 --> 00:29:08,205
And they thought they were gonna
use Trump as a useful idiot.

593
00:29:08,205 --> 00:29:09,254
And in the first term he was.

594
00:29:09,915 --> 00:29:12,255
I think he still cared
about different norms.

595
00:29:12,375 --> 00:29:15,555
Um, and he doesn't now for better and
for worse, but he let himself be sort

596
00:29:15,555 --> 00:29:18,615
of taken along the garden path there
and he made that promise to voters.

597
00:29:18,615 --> 00:29:20,925
And if you're, if you're defending
him, like you can also say

598
00:29:20,925 --> 00:29:22,545
like, yes, there was a deal.

599
00:29:22,755 --> 00:29:25,695
But after there was a deal and, and
part of the reason for the deal, by

600
00:29:25,695 --> 00:29:28,185
the way, was that ISIS looked like
it was taking over the Middle East.

601
00:29:28,185 --> 00:29:31,785
Like that was the background context for
the United States and Iran looking at each

602
00:29:31,785 --> 00:29:33,735
other, being like, maybe we should like.

603
00:29:33,755 --> 00:29:37,265
Put this to bed for a second and deal
with these crazy people and then we

604
00:29:37,265 --> 00:29:38,315
can go back to what we were doing.

605
00:29:38,405 --> 00:29:38,645
Yeah.

606
00:29:38,915 --> 00:29:39,605
Fought together.

607
00:29:39,605 --> 00:29:41,015
'cause like they saw the bigger threat.

608
00:29:41,195 --> 00:29:43,805
Really what we need is ISIS to
come back for peace in the Middle

609
00:29:43,805 --> 00:29:44,675
East, is what you're saying.

610
00:29:44,945 --> 00:29:47,915
Marko Papic: No, but, but I, I
think, I think ISIS was the basis of

611
00:29:47,915 --> 00:29:49,565
a lot of peace in the Middle East.

612
00:29:49,685 --> 00:29:49,865
Yeah.

613
00:29:49,925 --> 00:29:54,845
I mean, the reason that Saudi Arabia
and Iran have Deante is isis Iranian

614
00:29:55,235 --> 00:29:58,115
linked Iraqi militant groups.

615
00:29:58,385 --> 00:30:02,345
So Iraqi militants who
were supported by Iran.

616
00:30:03,524 --> 00:30:08,895
Al KZ force was calling in airstrikes
from American Warthogs outside of Baghdad

617
00:30:09,495 --> 00:30:12,795
to arrest the invasion by al-Baghdadi.

618
00:30:12,795 --> 00:30:14,685
So like I, I agree with you.

619
00:30:14,745 --> 00:30:19,004
Um, there are far worse things, in
other words, in the, in the region.

620
00:30:19,725 --> 00:30:21,305
I. Than the Islamic Republic One.

621
00:30:21,325 --> 00:30:22,980
One thing I do wanna
say, mention your, well,

622
00:30:22,980 --> 00:30:25,379
Jacob Shapiro: no, and, and just, but
well hold on, just on the J-C-P-O-A

623
00:30:25,379 --> 00:30:28,230
though, because the, the other thing
to think about the Iran nuclear deal

624
00:30:28,230 --> 00:30:32,730
is that, first of all, it was supported
by two lame duck presidents who didn't

625
00:30:32,730 --> 00:30:34,170
have a lot of domestic support for it.

626
00:30:34,170 --> 00:30:36,210
So Hassan Rouhani was
president in Iran at the time.

627
00:30:36,210 --> 00:30:37,680
He did not have a lot of support for it.

628
00:30:37,680 --> 00:30:39,090
The IRGC was at his heels.

629
00:30:39,090 --> 00:30:41,370
He was trying to push back
against the IRGC and that

630
00:30:41,700 --> 00:30:42,960
thing that I just talked about.

631
00:30:43,080 --> 00:30:45,690
And then you had Obama who was
also on his heels with Iran.

632
00:30:45,960 --> 00:30:48,900
Also, after the JCPO is signed
and after ISIS is dealt with.

633
00:30:49,245 --> 00:30:51,165
Um, the, the Iranians, yes.

634
00:30:51,165 --> 00:30:54,615
Like you can say that they were, um, they,
they followed the letter of the, the law

635
00:30:54,615 --> 00:30:58,514
on enrichment, but the deal said nothing
about missiles and they started testing

636
00:30:58,545 --> 00:31:02,865
ICBMs and all sorts of missile technology
immediately, all over the place.

637
00:31:02,955 --> 00:31:05,565
And so, like, if the J-C-P-O-A
was gonna be effective, there

638
00:31:05,565 --> 00:31:06,945
was more to a nuclear program.

639
00:31:06,945 --> 00:31:08,554
Program than just the uranium.

640
00:31:09,034 --> 00:31:11,044
There's also the missiles, there's
also all these other things.

641
00:31:11,044 --> 00:31:13,294
So they just kept on going full
speed ahead at the other stuff

642
00:31:13,294 --> 00:31:16,205
and said, okay, like we will get
to the uranium when we get to it.

643
00:31:16,205 --> 00:31:18,304
Because as you've noted
before, that's old technology.

644
00:31:18,304 --> 00:31:21,004
Like they could probably get there
like yes, it's hard, but like they

645
00:31:21,004 --> 00:31:22,175
have a lot of human capital there.

646
00:31:22,175 --> 00:31:25,715
So if you really wanted A-J-C-P-O-A,
we would need to go back to the way

647
00:31:25,715 --> 00:31:27,395
that treaties used to be, which is.

648
00:31:27,885 --> 00:31:31,455
Supported by Congress so that a
future president can't just rip it up

649
00:31:31,575 --> 00:31:33,345
because he feels in a particular way.

650
00:31:33,345 --> 00:31:37,215
So the, the J-C-P-O-A was really,
it was a, a weak effort by two weak

651
00:31:37,215 --> 00:31:42,105
presidents to try and set their countries
on a path away from what we just saw.

652
00:31:42,254 --> 00:31:44,115
And because they didn't
have the requisite support.

653
00:31:44,239 --> 00:31:44,870
It didn't work.

654
00:31:44,870 --> 00:31:48,409
And whether it was a failure, like maybe
whether they should have done it because

655
00:31:48,409 --> 00:31:50,840
it was the best they could have done, or
they should have just accepted that it

656
00:31:50,840 --> 00:31:52,489
was not realistic and done something else.

657
00:31:52,489 --> 00:31:52,969
I don't know.

658
00:31:52,969 --> 00:31:55,459
But I think that context is, is useful.

659
00:31:55,459 --> 00:31:58,129
So like, yes, he shouldn't have pulled
out of the J-C-P-O-A, he could have

660
00:31:58,129 --> 00:32:02,030
built up on it, but there was no way
that the Trump won was going to do that.

661
00:32:02,030 --> 00:32:04,459
And also the deal itself was
not going to prevent the Iranian

662
00:32:04,459 --> 00:32:05,989
nuclear program from going forward.

663
00:32:05,989 --> 00:32:07,189
Like that critique is accurate.

664
00:32:08,000 --> 00:32:12,260
Marko Papic: That's, that's a, that's a
really, uh, uh, a well-founded defense.

665
00:32:12,645 --> 00:32:15,045
Look, look at how the
rules have have flipped.

666
00:32:17,145 --> 00:32:21,285
Uh, one, okay, so one thing I wanna say,
uh, your scenarios I have no comment on.

667
00:32:21,285 --> 00:32:23,085
So they're, they're, they're fine.

668
00:32:23,145 --> 00:32:26,895
Uh, the one thing that I think we
should think about though is I think

669
00:32:26,895 --> 00:32:31,725
it's objectively clear that the Iran
regime has weakened, not domestically.

670
00:32:31,725 --> 00:32:35,925
So this isn't the point about regime
change, but if you are allied with Iran.

671
00:32:36,960 --> 00:32:40,350
And there are fewer and fewer of those
around Middle East, but if you are

672
00:32:40,350 --> 00:32:42,210
allied with Iran, you are worried.

673
00:32:42,690 --> 00:32:45,930
And in particular, what I'm worried
about, and this is, this can be the last

674
00:32:45,930 --> 00:32:47,820
point we, we have for the postmortem.

675
00:32:47,880 --> 00:32:48,780
I'm worried about Iraq.

676
00:32:48,810 --> 00:32:48,960
Yeah.

677
00:32:50,490 --> 00:32:55,260
You know, Iraq has a, um,
basically a balance of fire.

678
00:32:56,070 --> 00:32:58,050
Uh, it's, it's very important to Iran.

679
00:32:58,050 --> 00:33:01,140
It's their buffer against a lot
of different, uh, challenges.

680
00:33:01,470 --> 00:33:04,050
And currently it's being
run by effectively.

681
00:33:05,100 --> 00:33:10,800
Tehran linked Iranian, uh, militias,
uh, Shia militias and Shia politicians.

682
00:33:11,189 --> 00:33:14,070
Now there is different groups
of Shia politicians in Iraq.

683
00:33:14,490 --> 00:33:17,520
The nationalists who are
opposed to Iranian influence

684
00:33:17,550 --> 00:33:20,429
effectively gave up in 2021.

685
00:33:20,429 --> 00:33:22,080
I thought a civil war was going to happen.

686
00:33:22,949 --> 00:33:26,429
And then Muta al sadder the leader
of this faction who fought against

687
00:33:26,429 --> 00:33:31,350
Americans on behalf of Iran, but then
flipped and became pretty ardent.

688
00:33:31,919 --> 00:33:35,940
Shia nationalist, opposing
Iranian influence in Iraq.

689
00:33:36,030 --> 00:33:39,510
He retired at the end of 2021, early 2022.

690
00:33:39,510 --> 00:33:40,260
He just retired.

691
00:33:40,679 --> 00:33:40,860
Jacob Shapiro: Yeah.

692
00:33:41,004 --> 00:33:42,625
Marko Papic: And that
was part of, for Yeah.

693
00:33:42,750 --> 00:33:43,230
Good for him.

694
00:33:43,260 --> 00:33:45,060
Uh, I think he took a job at booking.

695
00:33:45,929 --> 00:33:48,179
Um, he writes Wall Street Journal,

696
00:33:49,080 --> 00:33:52,050
Jacob Shapiro: uh, the Tda Al Sutter
chair for geopolitical analysis

697
00:33:52,050 --> 00:33:53,550
that, uh, coming into a think tank.

698
00:33:53,550 --> 00:33:54,000
Me, you, uh,

699
00:33:55,169 --> 00:33:56,760
Marko Papic: militancy and liberalism.

700
00:33:57,840 --> 00:33:58,440
At Discourse.

701
00:33:59,159 --> 00:34:00,030
Um, so this will obviously

702
00:34:00,389 --> 00:34:03,060
Jacob Shapiro: be one of the, the fake
sponsors that we read in future episodes.

703
00:34:03,060 --> 00:34:04,500
I can't wait to write the copy for that.

704
00:34:05,639 --> 00:34:07,470
Marko Papic: No, but so,
uh, yeah, that'd be awesome.

705
00:34:07,530 --> 00:34:12,719
Uh, so Mta, Suder just retires and,
and I suspect part of the reason is

706
00:34:12,719 --> 00:34:17,130
that Saudis pressured both Aldo Suder
and the Shia nationalists in Iraq.

707
00:34:17,489 --> 00:34:18,750
Look, we have a deal with Iran.

708
00:34:19,529 --> 00:34:20,909
We're giving up Iraq to them.

709
00:34:21,449 --> 00:34:22,049
God bless him.

710
00:34:22,049 --> 00:34:22,679
They can take it.

711
00:34:22,679 --> 00:34:24,719
We wanna focus on economic modernization.

712
00:34:24,959 --> 00:34:26,520
We're done with this Shia Sunni stuff.

713
00:34:26,969 --> 00:34:27,569
You don't care.

714
00:34:28,350 --> 00:34:34,469
And so for the past, you know, four
years, Iraq has been surprisingly

715
00:34:34,469 --> 00:34:39,659
calm, surprisingly stable
because that side just gave up.

716
00:34:40,709 --> 00:34:44,549
What happens when that side realizes
that maybe they don't need Saudi

717
00:34:44,759 --> 00:34:46,889
support because Iran is weak now?

718
00:34:47,069 --> 00:34:48,239
I think that would be a mistake.

719
00:34:48,630 --> 00:34:53,370
Iran may not have the technological
capability to fight against Israeli

720
00:34:53,370 --> 00:34:57,060
fighter jets, but it does have
the technological capability to

721
00:34:57,060 --> 00:34:58,710
support an insurgency in Iraq.

722
00:35:00,030 --> 00:35:01,230
You know, those are two different things.

723
00:35:01,230 --> 00:35:02,850
You're not fighting Israeli fighter jets.

724
00:35:03,210 --> 00:35:04,950
You're fighting a war door to door.

725
00:35:04,980 --> 00:35:07,650
That's something Iran has done
in Iraq for the past 20 years.

726
00:35:08,040 --> 00:35:10,200
Nonetheless, this is something
that I'm worried about Jacob,

727
00:35:10,200 --> 00:35:13,380
like when I think about the
postmortem of what just happened.

728
00:35:14,310 --> 00:35:17,640
I do think this, uh, ceasefire
is highly sustainable.

729
00:35:17,700 --> 00:35:20,430
I think President Trump has just
smacked both Israel and Iran

730
00:35:20,430 --> 00:35:21,330
and said, I don't want to hear.

731
00:35:21,330 --> 00:35:25,920
It's like when I get sick of my
kids fighting and I show up and

732
00:35:25,920 --> 00:35:29,490
the sun is like, she started and
I'm like, I don't care if I have to

733
00:35:29,490 --> 00:35:32,370
come up back up here one more time.

734
00:35:32,790 --> 00:35:36,210
She's like, you're both in, you know,
and it's like, Serbian, Serbian.

735
00:35:36,210 --> 00:35:38,100
Dad is coming out, not Santa Monica dad.

736
00:35:38,685 --> 00:35:39,105
So that's

737
00:35:39,105 --> 00:35:39,545
Jacob Shapiro: what Trump did.

738
00:35:39,550 --> 00:35:41,625
Did, um, I I did, did you see that?

739
00:35:41,625 --> 00:35:45,075
Somebody asked Mark Ruddy about, about
Trump's language and he literally said

740
00:35:45,075 --> 00:35:47,175
sometimes daddy has to use harsh language.

741
00:35:48,015 --> 00:35:48,134
Marko Papic: No.

742
00:35:48,170 --> 00:35:51,285
And, and I mean, it's like, that's
exactly, like, that's what Trump I

743
00:35:51,285 --> 00:35:55,125
like, I I see myself in him, like
with my kids and it's, uh, and

744
00:35:55,125 --> 00:35:57,075
so I think this is sustainable.

745
00:35:57,165 --> 00:36:00,615
I really think if Israel crosses
Trump again, I think it's gonna

746
00:36:00,615 --> 00:36:02,055
be very bad for the country.

747
00:36:02,055 --> 00:36:02,415
So.

748
00:36:02,880 --> 00:36:07,890
That's great, but the negative is Iraq and
I really worry about the destabilization

749
00:36:07,890 --> 00:36:08,880
of that neighboring country.

750
00:36:08,880 --> 00:36:10,410
So that's it.

751
00:36:10,500 --> 00:36:12,630
Like that's, that's where
I'm at right now with this.

752
00:36:12,990 --> 00:36:13,290
Jacob Shapiro: All right.

753
00:36:13,290 --> 00:36:16,500
And, and, and turn on the TikTok camera
for one thing from your, I think this is

754
00:36:16,500 --> 00:36:21,090
the first time I've asked for the TikTok
camera on, for all of you ardent Kurdish

755
00:36:21,090 --> 00:36:23,040
nationalists listening to this podcast.

756
00:36:23,220 --> 00:36:27,090
Your time is now and you
might not get another chance.

757
00:36:27,150 --> 00:36:29,910
So if there's going to be an
independent Kurdish state.

758
00:36:30,690 --> 00:36:33,180
Like the, the dynamics that Marco
was talking about right now,

759
00:36:33,210 --> 00:36:34,380
this is where they come from.

760
00:36:34,380 --> 00:36:38,040
ISIS used, uh, you know, a vacuum
of power in Iraq to do what

761
00:36:38,040 --> 00:36:39,330
it did to build dec caliphate.

762
00:36:39,330 --> 00:36:43,230
You can use a vacuum of power
in these lands to build the

763
00:36:43,230 --> 00:36:44,220
thing that you're talking about.

764
00:36:44,220 --> 00:36:46,710
So stop squabbling with each other
and if this is something that you

765
00:36:46,710 --> 00:36:48,450
want, like now would be the moment.

766
00:36:48,450 --> 00:36:52,260
And if, if there is a plan in an Israeli
drawer that says the next phase of

767
00:36:52,260 --> 00:36:54,600
this is not regime change in Iran, but.

768
00:36:54,870 --> 00:36:57,450
Supporting the establishment of an
independent Kurdish state, which is

769
00:36:57,450 --> 00:37:00,569
something the Israelis have toyed with
back and forth through their history.

770
00:37:00,569 --> 00:37:02,610
Like, I will, I will eat my lunch.

771
00:37:02,610 --> 00:37:05,610
If, if there is, if this is part of some
broader strategic plan for the record,

772
00:37:05,610 --> 00:37:06,870
I don't think that's gonna happen.

773
00:37:06,870 --> 00:37:11,370
But like, if there was a moment for it
to happen, like the, the power vacuum

774
00:37:11,370 --> 00:37:15,330
that you're talking about, is it Okay,
there's my, I. I think of that as,

775
00:37:15,419 --> 00:37:16,890
as out there, but maybe people won't.

776
00:37:17,279 --> 00:37:21,660
Um, let's turn Marco to our last
20 minutes for the NATO summit.

777
00:37:22,080 --> 00:37:25,109
Um, I want to read to
you what Mark Ruddy sent.

778
00:37:25,109 --> 00:37:26,339
Is it Mark Ruddy Rutt?

779
00:37:26,759 --> 00:37:27,390
How do you pronounce that?

780
00:37:27,390 --> 00:37:28,169
Ru I think it's Ute Ru.

781
00:37:29,250 --> 00:37:33,720
Marko Papic: Our Dutch, Dutch,
uh, like, uh, Dutch fans tell us.

782
00:37:33,720 --> 00:37:33,839
Yeah, I'm,

783
00:37:34,890 --> 00:37:36,600
Jacob Shapiro: I'm, I'm trained
in Arabic, not in Dutch.

784
00:37:36,600 --> 00:37:37,140
Sorry guys.

785
00:37:37,169 --> 00:37:41,250
So, um, I, I, I, I just wanna read
what he sent to, to Donald Trump, but

786
00:37:41,250 --> 00:37:43,049
Donald Trump posted this on his truth.

787
00:37:43,620 --> 00:37:47,399
Uh, and I also wanna say this sounds
like, uh, he went to chat GPT and

788
00:37:47,399 --> 00:37:51,149
said, could you create a message for
me that makes Donald Trump happy?

789
00:37:51,629 --> 00:37:54,359
Mr. President, dear Donald,
congratulations and thank you

790
00:37:54,365 --> 00:37:56,069
for your decisive action in Iran.

791
00:37:56,265 --> 00:37:59,205
That was truly extraordinary and
something no one else dared to do.

792
00:37:59,205 --> 00:38:00,345
It makes us all safer.

793
00:38:00,615 --> 00:38:03,464
You are flying into another big
success in The Hague this evening.

794
00:38:03,645 --> 00:38:06,645
It was not easy, but we've
got them all signed on to 5%.

795
00:38:07,020 --> 00:38:09,899
Donald, you have driven us to a
really, really important moment for

796
00:38:09,899 --> 00:38:11,310
America and Europe and the world.

797
00:38:11,310 --> 00:38:12,270
You will achieve something.

798
00:38:12,270 --> 00:38:15,089
No American president in
decades could get done.

799
00:38:15,299 --> 00:38:19,649
Europe is going to pay in a big way as
they should, and it will be your win.

800
00:38:19,859 --> 00:38:22,950
Safe travels and see you
at his Majesty's dinner.

801
00:38:23,220 --> 00:38:27,450
We should all be so happy as, as Mark,
whatever his name is, to be happy to

802
00:38:27,450 --> 00:38:29,669
pay, uh, at the expense of the Americans.

803
00:38:29,970 --> 00:38:31,740
There's the European side
of this, which we'll get to.

804
00:38:31,740 --> 00:38:33,839
I also just wanna say
in the background here.

805
00:38:34,215 --> 00:38:37,215
Big problems in US Japanese
relations, prime Minister Ishiba

806
00:38:37,215 --> 00:38:38,655
decided not to attend the summit.

807
00:38:38,655 --> 00:38:42,195
Japan also very summarily canceled
a two plus two meeting that

808
00:38:42,195 --> 00:38:43,575
was supposed to be July 1st.

809
00:38:43,845 --> 00:38:46,395
South Korea has attended the
summit the last couple of years.

810
00:38:46,815 --> 00:38:48,075
They decided not to.

811
00:38:48,795 --> 00:38:51,075
Um, and this is amid reports
that the Trump administration is

812
00:38:51,075 --> 00:38:56,860
pushing for these Asian countries
to spend up to 5% on uh, uh, on.

813
00:38:57,375 --> 00:39:00,735
Uh, military spending as a percent
of GDP as well and trying to retrofit

814
00:39:00,735 --> 00:39:02,295
NATO into an anti-China alliance.

815
00:39:02,295 --> 00:39:04,005
So I think there's an Asia
Pacific angle to this.

816
00:39:04,005 --> 00:39:07,425
There's the NATO summit to it, and then
there's just the sheer comedy of all of

817
00:39:07,425 --> 00:39:11,655
these European leaders understanding that
kissing, you know, see being seen to kiss

818
00:39:11,655 --> 00:39:13,005
the knee is gonna get you what you want.

819
00:39:13,005 --> 00:39:15,675
So no more isolating
Trump off on stage left.

820
00:39:15,675 --> 00:39:18,345
It's like, hey, as much
flattery language as we want.

821
00:39:18,405 --> 00:39:20,205
Um, so take it from there, Marco.

822
00:39:20,205 --> 00:39:20,985
Let's do some cooking.

823
00:39:21,495 --> 00:39:25,785
Marko Papic: Well, first of all, I would
say that any man would be so lucky.

824
00:39:26,805 --> 00:39:34,004
That their partner looks at them and texts
them the way that Mark speaks to Trump.

825
00:39:34,814 --> 00:39:39,165
You know, may you live a long and
fruitful life full of romance,

826
00:39:39,765 --> 00:39:44,384
and that it be filled with little,
cute notes of love and affection.

827
00:39:44,805 --> 00:39:49,694
The way that Mark texts Donald, that was
just dripping like, dear Mr. President.

828
00:39:50,189 --> 00:39:53,129
Comma, Donald, you didn't read it.

829
00:39:53,430 --> 00:39:54,120
You didn't read it.

830
00:39:54,120 --> 00:39:55,229
You're, you're speeding.

831
00:39:55,290 --> 00:39:57,810
You're rushing through
this pod episode, Jacob.

832
00:39:57,810 --> 00:40:00,330
I know we have limited time,
but you have to No, no.

833
00:40:00,569 --> 00:40:01,379
Due the cadence.

834
00:40:01,379 --> 00:40:02,850
You have to say Donald.

835
00:40:03,870 --> 00:40:04,470
Pause.

836
00:40:05,220 --> 00:40:06,509
It was, uh, it was incredible.

837
00:40:06,509 --> 00:40:12,240
And the fact that Trump shared it with
everyone was so diabolically mean.

838
00:40:12,720 --> 00:40:15,419
You know, it's like, it's
like he's acting like.

839
00:40:16,080 --> 00:40:19,380
There's some girl that's texting him
and he's sharing it with buddies, you

840
00:40:19,380 --> 00:40:21,030
know, it's like, Hey, look at this.

841
00:40:21,420 --> 00:40:23,790
Look at what, look at
what Mark said to me.

842
00:40:23,790 --> 00:40:25,380
You know, like, I'm the man.

843
00:40:25,380 --> 00:40:28,050
So, yeah, I think flattery
is definitely working.

844
00:40:28,080 --> 00:40:32,010
Um, did you see that Pakistan nomin
nominated, uh, president Trump

845
00:40:32,010 --> 00:40:33,600
for the noble, uh, peace prize?

846
00:40:34,590 --> 00:40:35,160
Like how did Oh, yeah.

847
00:40:35,160 --> 00:40:36,605
I actually, I knew what,
did nobody else think of it?

848
00:40:36,605 --> 00:40:36,845
Yeah.

849
00:40:37,275 --> 00:40:37,725
Like, hey.

850
00:40:38,250 --> 00:40:39,450
Hats off to Pakistan.

851
00:40:39,450 --> 00:40:40,680
Like what a brilliant move.

852
00:40:40,680 --> 00:40:44,970
Did they, they nominated him and made
it publicly like we nominated President

853
00:40:44,970 --> 00:40:46,770
Trump, you know, like not anyone else.

854
00:40:46,770 --> 00:40:47,130
Well, and

855
00:40:47,130 --> 00:40:50,130
Jacob Shapiro: I believe that, I believe
they did it 48 hours before the Israel

856
00:40:50,130 --> 00:40:54,240
Iran War started, or, or was it 48 hours
before the US decided to bomb Iran?

857
00:40:54,240 --> 00:40:54,870
Like really afraid.

858
00:40:54,870 --> 00:40:54,930
I'm

859
00:40:54,930 --> 00:40:55,110
Marko Papic: right.

860
00:40:55,350 --> 00:40:56,580
President Trump bombed Iran.

861
00:40:56,610 --> 00:41:01,050
Not a single person died in the that
bombing, and now the conflict is over.

862
00:41:01,935 --> 00:41:02,775
Well deserved.

863
00:41:02,775 --> 00:41:06,975
I mean, I mean like truth, I mean, look,
it's subjective, like, you know, but

864
00:41:06,975 --> 00:41:10,575
no, some journalists will say, like,
you use the term, it's been obliterated.

865
00:41:10,605 --> 00:41:10,935
Okay.

866
00:41:11,595 --> 00:41:13,305
Uh, that's why nobody reads media anymore.

867
00:41:13,305 --> 00:41:18,075
Anyways, uh, going back to nato,
uh, so your point, uh, yeah, I

868
00:41:18,075 --> 00:41:19,695
mean, look, I think that, um.

869
00:41:19,995 --> 00:41:23,085
It's interesting because President
Trump has now said that it's

870
00:41:23,085 --> 00:41:26,055
an extraordinary success, that
they're gonna hit this 5% target.

871
00:41:26,505 --> 00:41:30,585
Uh, just to explain to everybody,
I mean, nobody spends 3% on their

872
00:41:30,585 --> 00:41:32,145
defense, like really in the world.

873
00:41:32,175 --> 00:41:32,775
Like nobody.

874
00:41:32,775 --> 00:41:37,155
The United States of America, I
think in 2024 was like 2.7% of its

875
00:41:37,155 --> 00:41:40,965
GDPI, I dunno if you'll look it up,
but like, oh, yeah, I'll tell you.

876
00:41:41,205 --> 00:41:45,915
Look, getting to 3.5% defense spending
as percent of your GDP is like.

877
00:41:47,250 --> 00:41:51,779
Double what's probably rational
for most of these countries, um,

878
00:41:51,990 --> 00:41:54,720
their target, uh, of 5% is false.

879
00:41:54,839 --> 00:41:55,950
It's not 5%.

880
00:41:56,009 --> 00:41:57,029
That's just pr.

881
00:41:57,720 --> 00:42:02,669
They're committing to 3.5% in defense,
1.5% on infrastructure, like broadly

882
00:42:02,669 --> 00:42:07,290
conceived, where I can see, like, I think
some of these countries are gonna justify,

883
00:42:07,290 --> 00:42:12,029
like improvements to their healthcare
system as as necessary for defense.

884
00:42:12,600 --> 00:42:13,049
So.

885
00:42:13,950 --> 00:42:18,240
Let's, let's just, and the other thing
is that this is by 2035 a year at

886
00:42:18,240 --> 00:42:23,009
which, you know, president Trump is
highly unlikely to call him out on it.

887
00:42:24,299 --> 00:42:25,380
The world will be different.

888
00:42:25,799 --> 00:42:31,740
And so this is where I would say,
you know, yes, I do expect increase

889
00:42:31,740 --> 00:42:33,600
in spending in Europe, absolutely.

890
00:42:33,600 --> 00:42:36,720
But they want to increase spending
in Europe for other reasons too.

891
00:42:36,779 --> 00:42:39,840
They wanna do it for
fiscal stimulus reasons.

892
00:42:39,870 --> 00:42:42,180
They want to just have
their economies grow more.

893
00:42:42,615 --> 00:42:47,265
So they're not spending 5% of their
GDP on military because nobody is,

894
00:42:47,265 --> 00:42:52,365
including the us The US isn't a
3.5%, uh, expenditure on defense.

895
00:42:52,905 --> 00:42:53,295
Jacob Shapiro: Yeah.

896
00:42:53,535 --> 00:42:56,865
Uh, well first of all, uh, about the
spending on military, did you, did you

897
00:42:56,865 --> 00:43:00,765
see what German Chancellor, Friedrich
Mers said about, um, the German army?

898
00:43:00,765 --> 00:43:00,825
Um,

899
00:43:01,790 --> 00:43:02,235
Marko Papic: uh, yeah.

900
00:43:02,325 --> 00:43:02,955
It was very.

901
00:43:03,645 --> 00:43:05,325
Yeah, he was saying like,
they're going Korea.

902
00:43:05,325 --> 00:43:05,775
He said, quote that he

903
00:43:05,775 --> 00:43:07,965
Jacob Shapiro: wants Germany to
have the strongest conventional

904
00:43:07,965 --> 00:43:09,855
army in army in Europe.

905
00:43:09,915 --> 00:43:12,435
End quote, because that
went so well the first time.

906
00:43:12,435 --> 00:43:16,095
Thank you US government for encouraging
Germany to return to the notion that it

907
00:43:16,095 --> 00:43:18,285
means the la the largest army in Europe.

908
00:43:18,285 --> 00:43:18,975
I'm just, excuse me.

909
00:43:18,975 --> 00:43:19,815
I'm so happy about this.

910
00:43:19,815 --> 00:43:21,765
Jacob, I am

911
00:43:21,825 --> 00:43:24,285
Marko Papic: sorry to have
to correct your knowledge.

912
00:43:24,285 --> 00:43:24,555
Please do.

913
00:43:24,555 --> 00:43:24,975
No, I'm

914
00:43:24,975 --> 00:43:25,725
Jacob Shapiro: happy to be corrected.

915
00:43:26,025 --> 00:43:26,445
Yeah, please.

916
00:43:26,925 --> 00:43:27,825
Marko Papic: Two times.

917
00:43:28,455 --> 00:43:29,235
It went great.

918
00:43:30,029 --> 00:43:31,830
Two times, not worse.

919
00:43:34,529 --> 00:43:34,734
Wait, wait.

920
00:43:35,100 --> 00:43:37,919
Jacob Shapiro: And I looked up, I looked
up military spending as a percent of GDP.

921
00:43:37,979 --> 00:43:43,350
There are five countries in the
world that spend more than 7%

922
00:43:43,950 --> 00:43:46,410
of their GDP on the military.

923
00:43:46,410 --> 00:43:47,459
Can you guess?

924
00:43:48,089 --> 00:43:48,330
Marko Papic: Okay.

925
00:43:48,359 --> 00:43:49,140
Oh, this is great.

926
00:43:49,290 --> 00:43:49,709
Yes.

927
00:43:49,709 --> 00:43:50,129
Live.

928
00:43:50,189 --> 00:43:50,790
Uh, let's see.

929
00:43:50,790 --> 00:43:51,540
North Korea is one.

930
00:43:52,740 --> 00:43:55,049
Jacob Shapiro: No, although I
don't, maybe they're not on here

931
00:43:55,049 --> 00:43:56,400
'cause we don't have data probably.

932
00:43:56,400 --> 00:43:58,740
So that's probably a good guess,
but we just don't have data, so.

933
00:43:58,830 --> 00:43:59,490
Huh, interesting.

934
00:43:59,490 --> 00:44:02,069
I don't, I don't think the North Koreans
are saying to cpr, yeah, this is how

935
00:44:02,069 --> 00:44:03,240
much we're we're spending on this.

936
00:44:03,240 --> 00:44:04,200
That's where I'm getting this data.

937
00:44:04,560 --> 00:44:06,000
Marko Papic: Do they have
data on Ukraine then?

938
00:44:06,630 --> 00:44:07,380
Is Ukraine one of them?

939
00:44:07,380 --> 00:44:07,710
They do.

940
00:44:08,339 --> 00:44:08,549
Jacob Shapiro: Okay.

941
00:44:08,549 --> 00:44:12,060
So Ukraine is, Ukraine is by far
and away, number one at 34.5%

942
00:44:12,060 --> 00:44:13,230
is their calculation right now.

943
00:44:13,560 --> 00:44:15,690
Second, I guess, what's
your next four Russia.

944
00:44:16,770 --> 00:44:19,050
Russia is number five, 7.1%.

945
00:44:19,470 --> 00:44:19,710
Okay.

946
00:44:20,640 --> 00:44:21,390
Uh, let me see.

947
00:44:21,390 --> 00:44:22,890
You've got one in five off the table.

948
00:44:23,250 --> 00:44:23,670
Alright.

949
00:44:23,940 --> 00:44:27,450
Uh, is Sudan one of them?

950
00:44:28,530 --> 00:44:29,760
No, I'll, I'll give you a hint.

951
00:44:29,760 --> 00:44:32,070
The rest of our countries
are in the MENA region.

952
00:44:32,430 --> 00:44:32,940
Marko Papic: Oh, okay.

953
00:44:33,060 --> 00:44:33,540
Jacob Shapiro: Interesting.

954
00:44:33,750 --> 00:44:34,140
Marko Papic: Alright.

955
00:44:35,295 --> 00:44:38,640
Jacob Shapiro: Uh, two you should
get and one I would've never

956
00:44:38,640 --> 00:44:39,750
gotten in a bajillion years,

957
00:44:39,810 --> 00:44:40,470
Marko Papic: Iran in Israel.

958
00:44:41,850 --> 00:44:43,589
Jacob Shapiro: Israel at 8.8%.

959
00:44:43,890 --> 00:44:49,020
Number two, not Iran, but our Saudi
friends at 7.3% at number four, and

960
00:44:49,020 --> 00:44:51,660
coming in at number three, 8% Algeria.

961
00:44:52,140 --> 00:44:54,000
Marko Papic: Oh, that's,
that would be okay.

962
00:44:54,000 --> 00:44:57,810
But that's, you know why
those are salaries, benefits.

963
00:44:58,680 --> 00:44:59,009
Jacob Shapiro: Okay.

964
00:44:59,009 --> 00:45:01,380
But still, like it's,
it's still 8% by the way.

965
00:45:01,380 --> 00:45:02,400
Marko Papic: That's an important point.

966
00:45:03,180 --> 00:45:03,810
Sorry, go ahead.

967
00:45:04,680 --> 00:45:05,310
Jacob Shapiro: No, no, no, no, no.

968
00:45:05,370 --> 00:45:05,670
You go,

969
00:45:05,819 --> 00:45:06,990
Marko Papic: no one, one of the things.

970
00:45:08,610 --> 00:45:12,450
The easiest way to boost defense
spending is just to give people in

971
00:45:12,450 --> 00:45:16,860
military higher salaries, and that's
in a lot of North African countries

972
00:45:16,860 --> 00:45:20,100
like Egypt or Algeria, like Algeria or

973
00:45:20,100 --> 00:45:20,460
Jacob Shapiro: Fasu.

974
00:45:20,460 --> 00:45:22,740
Your favorite on this list at 4.7%.

975
00:45:23,310 --> 00:45:25,380
Marko Papic: Yeah, like a lot
of that is just like, you know,

976
00:45:25,380 --> 00:45:28,230
the, it's this sclerotic economy.

977
00:45:28,845 --> 00:45:32,205
The highly, highly entrenched
interest of the military elite.

978
00:45:32,265 --> 00:45:37,845
So I would say that's, uh, that's not like
Algeria doesn't really have a military

979
00:45:37,845 --> 00:45:42,194
that is equivalent to how much they spend
because they don't spend it correctly.

980
00:45:42,194 --> 00:45:43,904
But, um, but yeah, the point

981
00:45:43,904 --> 00:45:46,395
Jacob Shapiro: is the only other country
on this list that spends more as a

982
00:45:46,395 --> 00:45:47,984
percentage of GDP than the United States.

983
00:45:47,984 --> 00:45:51,075
And by the way, Columbia tied with
the United States in terms of how

984
00:45:51,075 --> 00:45:54,645
much, you know, 3.4%, but, uh, 3.4%.

985
00:45:54,705 --> 00:45:55,305
Also US been

986
00:45:55,515 --> 00:45:56,745
Marko Papic: 3.4% of GDP.

987
00:45:57,090 --> 00:45:59,100
Jacob Shapiro: 3.4%
according to this data.

988
00:45:59,370 --> 00:46:02,100
Um, the only country that is not
in like North Africa or a place

989
00:46:02,100 --> 00:46:03,450
like that, that's, that's high.

990
00:46:03,450 --> 00:46:05,640
Up to your point is Poland at 4.2%.

991
00:46:05,730 --> 00:46:06,300
Marko Papic: Yeah, that's right.

992
00:46:06,390 --> 00:46:07,320
Poland does spend the most.

993
00:46:07,320 --> 00:46:10,920
So look, the point of this
is like 3.5% is a lot.

994
00:46:12,029 --> 00:46:12,600
It's a lot.

995
00:46:12,750 --> 00:46:15,480
The US is a global, you know, superpower.

996
00:46:15,630 --> 00:46:19,170
It spends 3.4% of its GDP on the feds.

997
00:46:19,560 --> 00:46:23,160
I'm not sure that Portugal
or Italy, it makes really any

998
00:46:23,160 --> 00:46:24,270
sense for them to do the same.

999
00:46:25,200 --> 00:46:29,130
Jacob Shapiro: Well, and you probably saw
that Spain, uh, has secured an exception

1000
00:46:29,130 --> 00:46:30,600
so that it doesn't have to do this.

1001
00:46:30,675 --> 00:46:34,710
I, I, I actually put on our, our internal
research platform at at work that, you

1002
00:46:34,710 --> 00:46:36,600
know, is this the end of NATO here?

1003
00:46:36,600 --> 00:46:39,180
If you're gonna start carving out
exceptions for different countries,

1004
00:46:39,180 --> 00:46:42,210
and if some countries are gonna say are
worried about defense, so they'll say

1005
00:46:42,210 --> 00:46:43,830
nice things to Trump and others won't.

1006
00:46:43,830 --> 00:46:46,260
And already the Asian economies are
like, all right, we flirted with this

1007
00:46:46,260 --> 00:46:47,700
for a while, but why should we do this?

1008
00:46:47,700 --> 00:46:50,430
And, and the bombing of Iran, I
think, sort of reinforces this.

1009
00:46:50,640 --> 00:46:52,020
Marko Papic: But here's
my argument for that.

1010
00:46:53,355 --> 00:46:54,435
Here's my argument for that.

1011
00:46:54,435 --> 00:47:00,165
So like, does it make sense for Canada
to spend 3.5% of its GDP on military?

1012
00:47:01,695 --> 00:47:10,545
Why not get Canada to build refining
processing centers for critical minerals?

1013
00:47:11,505 --> 00:47:13,490
So if you're trying to
create the Western Alliance.

1014
00:47:14,265 --> 00:47:18,884
Like, maybe you should start by
ensuring that it's not Chinese rare

1015
00:47:18,884 --> 00:47:20,775
earth minerals in your missiles.

1016
00:47:21,075 --> 00:47:22,125
Uh, maybe that's, yeah.

1017
00:47:22,125 --> 00:47:22,545
I don't know.

1018
00:47:22,545 --> 00:47:24,915
Like I'm just a stupid
geopolitical strategist.

1019
00:47:25,305 --> 00:47:30,615
But if your missile is built with
like 70% Chinese components, maybe

1020
00:47:31,154 --> 00:47:34,665
part of the military spending
and security should be that.

1021
00:47:34,665 --> 00:47:39,255
So like, I'm not sure that it makes
sense for every country to just

1022
00:47:39,255 --> 00:47:41,174
buy more fighter jets and tanks.

1023
00:47:42,015 --> 00:47:45,495
Instead, you can look at critical
advantages that other countries have.

1024
00:47:46,275 --> 00:47:48,795
Canada, as an example, has
a lot of natural resources.

1025
00:47:48,795 --> 00:47:53,205
It has some processing of these
complicated, um, minerals in,

1026
00:47:53,205 --> 00:47:54,884
in certain parts of Canada.

1027
00:47:55,335 --> 00:47:59,625
For example, in trail British Columbia,
a very interesting piece of Western

1028
00:47:59,714 --> 00:48:04,605
critical infrastructure, one of the
largest lead processing centers that also

1029
00:48:04,605 --> 00:48:06,765
does some rare earth minerals as well.

1030
00:48:06,765 --> 00:48:10,455
So like you could, you could
contribute to the western.

1031
00:48:10,945 --> 00:48:15,235
Effort, if you will, without
just giving salaries to colonels,

1032
00:48:15,265 --> 00:48:17,665
you know, to meet the 3.5% line.

1033
00:48:17,665 --> 00:48:19,135
And I fear that that's
what's gonna happen.

1034
00:48:19,135 --> 00:48:22,075
A lot of countries, like, you know,
Belgium, what are they gonna do?

1035
00:48:22,075 --> 00:48:23,785
Like, Hey, should we
buy more fighter jets?

1036
00:48:23,785 --> 00:48:24,745
Should we buy more tanks?

1037
00:48:25,045 --> 00:48:26,365
You know, that's all really difficult.

1038
00:48:26,365 --> 00:48:29,425
It's just like, double everyone's
salary and we'll satisfy Donald Trump.

1039
00:48:30,205 --> 00:48:34,855
You know, that's, that's where I think
this is a little bit too, like rote.

1040
00:48:34,920 --> 00:48:35,610
But, but you're,

1041
00:48:36,390 --> 00:48:40,140
Jacob Shapiro: you're betraying, you're
betraying your globalist credentials.

1042
00:48:40,140 --> 00:48:43,620
You global fillic, uh, apolitical analyst.

1043
00:48:43,620 --> 00:48:47,640
You, the point here is not to
import refined materials from Canada

1044
00:48:47,640 --> 00:48:48,570
and some of these other places.

1045
00:48:48,570 --> 00:48:51,900
First of all, Canada's supposed to be part
of the United States in this metaphor.

1046
00:48:52,140 --> 00:48:55,555
The goal here is to make really,
really good shiny military equipment

1047
00:48:55,735 --> 00:48:59,100
and sell it to the rest of the world
to balance the trade ballots and make

1048
00:48:59,100 --> 00:49:00,780
these US military industrial companies.

1049
00:49:00,780 --> 00:49:02,820
We're gonna do the refining
here in the United States too.

1050
00:49:02,820 --> 00:49:03,150
So.

1051
00:49:03,535 --> 00:49:06,654
And by the way, in, in your one big
beautiful bill that you think is like, uh,

1052
00:49:06,654 --> 00:49:09,835
is fiscally conservative, like, you know,
you know, where we're, uh, increasing

1053
00:49:09,835 --> 00:49:13,585
spending on the military budget so that
we can sell those guns and those weapons

1054
00:49:13,795 --> 00:49:15,205
to all these other different countries.

1055
00:49:15,654 --> 00:49:19,795
Well, we, we all hope that you enjoyed
the four door air show that we put on

1056
00:49:19,795 --> 00:49:23,154
here to show you some of this wonderful
bunker busting technology that we'll

1057
00:49:23,154 --> 00:49:26,725
be offering to the, it's like Dwight
Eisenhower is rolling in his grave.

1058
00:49:27,234 --> 00:49:29,245
Marko Papic: No, I mean, that's so, yes.

1059
00:49:29,245 --> 00:49:33,810
I mean, a, a lot of this is just, um,
yeah, I, I. The media's covering this

1060
00:49:33,810 --> 00:49:38,730
as if it's a, a fair, complete, it's all
these countries have until 2035 to do it.

1061
00:49:39,300 --> 00:49:43,440
I think that they will do it in many ways,
but they will spend it really on defense.

1062
00:49:43,890 --> 00:49:47,760
Um, and so, you know, it, it's just
aligns with political interest of

1063
00:49:47,760 --> 00:49:51,060
whoever, everyone, president Trump
cannot say that he got Europeans

1064
00:49:51,060 --> 00:49:52,350
to do something nobody else did.

1065
00:49:52,770 --> 00:49:56,670
Europeans can satisfy their own domestic
political logic by boosting their economy.

1066
00:49:57,419 --> 00:50:00,480
But I don't, you know, I don't
expect every one of these countries

1067
00:50:00,480 --> 00:50:01,649
to spend as much as the us.

1068
00:50:02,279 --> 00:50:07,290
The other thing though, I would say what
is significant, Jacob, is that a lot of

1069
00:50:07,290 --> 00:50:10,379
people went into the Trump presidency
expecting him to withdraw from nato.

1070
00:50:11,100 --> 00:50:13,950
That he is, you know, like
not committed to nato.

1071
00:50:13,950 --> 00:50:19,470
He now, after this Brussels summit,
I mean, the words he's using, he's

1072
00:50:19,470 --> 00:50:21,450
now like committed to the pod.

1073
00:50:21,750 --> 00:50:23,520
He's saying this was his achievement.

1074
00:50:23,865 --> 00:50:25,365
He's put his stamp on it.

1075
00:50:25,575 --> 00:50:27,705
We know how President Trump's ego works.

1076
00:50:28,424 --> 00:50:34,095
He's now, you know, as, as far as the
next three years of his presidency go and

1077
00:50:34,095 --> 00:50:38,504
perhaps beyond, like he's now pro nato.

1078
00:50:38,565 --> 00:50:40,964
And that's, I think the big picture here.

1079
00:50:40,964 --> 00:50:43,335
Like President Trump is not
going to pull out of nato.

1080
00:50:43,785 --> 00:50:48,134
Um, and that's kinda a sweet spot for
Europe where it both has Friedrich Merz

1081
00:50:48,134 --> 00:50:49,665
out there saying we need to re-arm.

1082
00:50:50,384 --> 00:50:53,835
And at the same time, it still
has that American umbrella because

1083
00:50:53,835 --> 00:50:57,674
he doesn't seem to have qualified
it at this summit unless I'm

1084
00:50:57,674 --> 00:50:57,765
Jacob Shapiro: wrong.

1085
00:50:57,765 --> 00:51:01,485
Well, and another, another betrayal
of Trump's principles like America.

1086
00:51:01,485 --> 00:51:04,575
First, we're not gonna defend the
Europeans, but we are gonna defend

1087
00:51:04,575 --> 00:51:08,115
the Europeans via, via nato, and the
Europeans are gonna be strong again.

1088
00:51:08,415 --> 00:51:12,404
Maybe they'll rename it tto, the
Trump Atlantic Treaty Organization.

1089
00:51:12,495 --> 00:51:13,575
That sounds sort of good.

1090
00:51:14,265 --> 00:51:15,375
Marko Papic: If they
were smart, they would.

1091
00:51:16,424 --> 00:51:19,154
Jacob Shapiro: Well, and this is why I,
we, we started with the media and then

1092
00:51:19,154 --> 00:51:22,065
we start to close in or start to land
the plane on the media, which is the

1093
00:51:22,065 --> 00:51:25,845
way the media is covering this thing,
is they're saying, oh, isn't it so gross

1094
00:51:25,845 --> 00:51:30,435
and odious that all of these European
leaders like the, like Mark, are texting

1095
00:51:30,435 --> 00:51:32,295
Trump and treating him like this king.

1096
00:51:32,295 --> 00:51:34,125
It's the courtier and everything else.

1097
00:51:34,455 --> 00:51:36,525
And it's like the story you
should be telling is of.

1098
00:51:36,600 --> 00:51:40,140
Course they're doing that because that's
how you get things out of the man.

1099
00:51:40,470 --> 00:51:42,180
I don't think anything has
fundamentally changed here.

1100
00:51:42,180 --> 00:51:45,900
I think the Europeans and all the South
Koreans, Japan, they've all woken up

1101
00:51:45,900 --> 00:51:49,049
and realized that the United States
is not reliable or dependable anymore.

1102
00:51:49,259 --> 00:51:52,410
Now they can't flip the switch and just
turn on the United States immediately.

1103
00:51:52,410 --> 00:51:55,110
They still need things from the United
States, and as much as they can get

1104
00:51:55,110 --> 00:51:56,460
things from the United States, they will.

1105
00:51:56,460 --> 00:51:57,390
And if you are.

1106
00:51:57,625 --> 00:52:01,825
Gonna deal with Trump, you either have
to be big enough as China to punch back

1107
00:52:01,945 --> 00:52:06,925
and willing to absorb the pain or like
get ready to kiss a lot of Trump butt

1108
00:52:07,045 --> 00:52:08,665
because that's the way you get to him.

1109
00:52:08,665 --> 00:52:10,225
You say really, really nice things to him.

1110
00:52:10,225 --> 00:52:11,575
You flatter him, all these other things.

1111
00:52:11,575 --> 00:52:14,575
So the way to cover that is these
European leaders are actually getting

1112
00:52:14,575 --> 00:52:16,795
the things they want out of Trump.

1113
00:52:17,255 --> 00:52:21,035
Things that are against the things that
he's campaigned on before, by saying

1114
00:52:21,035 --> 00:52:22,355
really, really nice things to them.

1115
00:52:22,355 --> 00:52:25,835
So you may feel that it's odious because
you don't wanna say things to leaders

1116
00:52:25,835 --> 00:52:26,885
like that, but you're a journalist.

1117
00:52:26,915 --> 00:52:30,515
If you wanna report on what's going on
here, report on how the Europeans are

1118
00:52:30,515 --> 00:52:35,705
playing him and report on how Japan and
South Korea are basically being like, I.

1119
00:52:35,705 --> 00:52:37,320
Uh, we're not even sending PlayStations.

1120
00:52:37,350 --> 00:52:39,060
What the f You just bombed Iran.

1121
00:52:39,060 --> 00:52:41,550
And you want us to show up and do
things because you tell us to, you

1122
00:52:41,550 --> 00:52:44,940
can't even decide, you know, how
much you want us to spend on military

1123
00:52:44,940 --> 00:52:46,830
or what tariffs you want on or off.

1124
00:52:46,830 --> 00:52:49,230
We're, we're leaving the meetings
until you can figure something out.

1125
00:52:49,230 --> 00:52:53,580
Like I think this is actually a big
signal that like you, like multipolarity

1126
00:52:53,580 --> 00:52:55,230
is accelerating and us strength.

1127
00:52:55,580 --> 00:52:56,750
Is not what it used to be.

1128
00:52:56,750 --> 00:52:59,030
I think you can say that
exactly about the Israelis too.

1129
00:52:59,030 --> 00:53:03,560
Like even Trump saying, stop the bombs,
like having to scream, stop the bombs.

1130
00:53:03,560 --> 00:53:04,130
Like, true.

1131
00:53:04,130 --> 00:53:05,390
Nobody's listening to this guy.

1132
00:53:05,390 --> 00:53:06,410
They're just all flattering.

1133
00:53:06,950 --> 00:53:12,530
Marko Papic: Well, I, I think, you know,
um, there's limits to every argument, you

1134
00:53:12,530 --> 00:53:14,540
know, and I think multiple is clearly.

1135
00:53:14,610 --> 00:53:19,440
Uh, otherwise Israel would not
have attacked Iran, uh, without

1136
00:53:19,500 --> 00:53:22,320
much of a warning to the US without
really involvement that would not

1137
00:53:22,320 --> 00:53:24,270
have happened in a unipolar world.

1138
00:53:24,540 --> 00:53:26,250
But at the same time, just
limits to that, right?

1139
00:53:26,250 --> 00:53:29,910
Like the US And this is always
something that I always caveat,

1140
00:53:29,910 --> 00:53:31,410
especially for American audience.

1141
00:53:31,410 --> 00:53:35,430
I. A multipolar world doesn't mean
that every country is equally powerful.

1142
00:53:35,520 --> 00:53:36,390
That's not what it means.

1143
00:53:36,390 --> 00:53:39,630
It just, there just no one country
with preponderance of power.

1144
00:53:40,109 --> 00:53:42,089
But it doesn't mean that
the US is still not the most

1145
00:53:42,089 --> 00:53:43,080
powerful country in the world.

1146
00:53:43,080 --> 00:53:43,620
It is.

1147
00:53:43,620 --> 00:53:48,569
As President Trump said, the only country
that can deliver a payload, such as it

1148
00:53:48,569 --> 00:53:52,170
was and Fordo from Missouri, like that's
the only country in the world that can

1149
00:53:52,170 --> 00:53:54,420
go that distance with that payload.

1150
00:53:54,420 --> 00:53:57,720
And it's the only country that can
tell Israel after watching it for

1151
00:53:57,720 --> 00:53:59,940
two weeks disobey the US effectively.

1152
00:54:00,959 --> 00:54:04,140
Eventually Israel runs outta
rockets, you know, to defend itself.

1153
00:54:04,140 --> 00:54:05,370
And now us is Aha.

1154
00:54:06,180 --> 00:54:10,230
Now what, so, you know, the problem
with these arguments, Jacob, is

1155
00:54:10,230 --> 00:54:12,839
sometimes people get too literal and
too, like, well, what do you mean?

1156
00:54:12,839 --> 00:54:17,100
Like, well, it's nuanced, but in
a, in a unipolar world like this

1157
00:54:17,100 --> 00:54:18,629
would not have happened either way.

1158
00:54:18,629 --> 00:54:19,890
You're, you're correct.

1159
00:54:19,890 --> 00:54:23,879
I mean, it's, it's, it's a push and
pull, you know, and one of the things

1160
00:54:23,879 --> 00:54:27,450
that will deepen multipolarity, like
what will deepen it, is that Germany

1161
00:54:27,450 --> 00:54:29,759
will have the largest conventional army.

1162
00:54:30,645 --> 00:54:33,435
In Europe, which will mean that
it's one of the top five greatest

1163
00:54:33,435 --> 00:54:35,085
military powers in the world again.

1164
00:54:35,595 --> 00:54:35,895
Jacob Shapiro: Yeah.

1165
00:54:36,165 --> 00:54:37,395
Marko Papic: And that will
deepen, I dunno if you saw.

1166
00:54:39,060 --> 00:54:41,580
Jacob Shapiro: I dunno if you saw also,
uh, president Trump, just in the last,

1167
00:54:41,790 --> 00:54:45,899
as we've been talking, has been just
railing on the Spaniards for not, not

1168
00:54:45,899 --> 00:54:47,310
agreeing to spend this much money.

1169
00:54:47,669 --> 00:54:51,600
Um, Spanish markets also down
as a result that, uh, I don't do

1170
00:54:51,600 --> 00:54:54,450
much trading, but I'm, I'm pretty
bullish on, on Spain in general.

1171
00:54:54,479 --> 00:54:57,419
But, uh, yeah, I, I, I think that just
reinforces what we're talking about.

1172
00:54:57,419 --> 00:55:00,330
Like if you don't, if you're not nice
to him, if you don't do what he says,

1173
00:55:00,600 --> 00:55:02,279
like he's gonna do this to you, so.

1174
00:55:02,505 --> 00:55:05,625
Why wouldn't the Spanish government just
be like, sure, we'll spend it, we'll do

1175
00:55:05,625 --> 00:55:07,335
whatever you want, and then not spend it.

1176
00:55:07,335 --> 00:55:08,385
Like that's an own goal.

1177
00:55:08,415 --> 00:55:10,725
May maybe they're powerful enough
or they're They're fine enough,

1178
00:55:10,725 --> 00:55:11,685
they don't want to, but yeah,

1179
00:55:11,685 --> 00:55:12,585
Marko Papic: it's a total own goal.

1180
00:55:13,395 --> 00:55:14,385
It's a total own goal.

1181
00:55:14,385 --> 00:55:19,305
And the reason it's an own goal
is because it's until 2035.

1182
00:55:19,365 --> 00:55:20,925
Why would you stick your neck out?

1183
00:55:20,955 --> 00:55:25,305
Everybody else fell in line, you
know, not because they're afraid

1184
00:55:25,305 --> 00:55:30,585
of Trump, but because why would you
go through the trouble of fighting?

1185
00:55:31,080 --> 00:55:37,140
United States of America on this, like
the, the, the goalposts are so wide

1186
00:55:37,140 --> 00:55:41,850
on this target that you can drive a
brand new aircraft carrier through it.

1187
00:55:41,850 --> 00:55:43,650
So like why push against it?

1188
00:55:43,740 --> 00:55:48,420
And so, yeah, I I would argue that,
you know, um, we have that top 30

1189
00:55:48,510 --> 00:55:51,420
leaders, um, trade value coming up.

1190
00:55:52,110 --> 00:55:54,060
Pedro Sanchez may have
to drop a little bit.

1191
00:55:55,740 --> 00:55:56,160
Jacob Shapiro: Uh, he was.

1192
00:55:56,610 --> 00:55:57,509
Uh, newsflash.

1193
00:55:57,509 --> 00:55:58,680
He was not in my top 30.

1194
00:55:59,220 --> 00:56:00,060
All keep mind.

1195
00:56:00,060 --> 00:56:01,350
Anything else, Marco, before we go?

1196
00:56:01,350 --> 00:56:02,130
I gotta get outta here.

1197
00:56:02,700 --> 00:56:03,150
Marko Papic: No, that's it.

1198
00:56:03,270 --> 00:56:04,740
Uh, I think the postmortem is done.

1199
00:56:04,799 --> 00:56:09,210
Um, just as a summary, I think this,
uh, it's nonsense to discuss whether the

1200
00:56:09,210 --> 00:56:10,830
nuclear program is obliterated or not.

1201
00:56:11,190 --> 00:56:17,190
It is highly, highly, um, unlikely
that, uh, Iran's going to get a

1202
00:56:17,190 --> 00:56:19,049
nuke in the next like 12 months.

1203
00:56:19,380 --> 00:56:22,230
US can mow the grass with
further military strikes.

1204
00:56:22,230 --> 00:56:24,870
And then the thing,
uh, is regime survival.

1205
00:56:25,410 --> 00:56:26,400
Probably here to stay.

1206
00:56:26,700 --> 00:56:27,870
The question is how it evolves.

1207
00:56:27,870 --> 00:56:28,590
That was your point.

1208
00:56:28,590 --> 00:56:30,390
And then finally, I would focus on Iraq.

1209
00:56:30,660 --> 00:56:33,720
That's where I would wanna
watch for signed And Iranian

1210
00:56:33,720 --> 00:56:37,410
weakness is going to lead to more
destabilization in the region.

1211
00:56:37,410 --> 00:56:45,450
And finally, um, in closing, what I
would say is send your loved one a text.

1212
00:56:46,380 --> 00:56:50,130
And if you need help with how
to structure it, read Mark

1213
00:56:50,130 --> 00:56:51,480
Ruiz comments to Donald Trump.

1214
00:56:51,840 --> 00:56:52,470
They were very sweet.

1215
00:56:52,470 --> 00:56:52,500
I.

1216
00:56:54,135 --> 00:56:56,925
Jacob Shapiro: Uh, lessons on
sensuality from a political nihilist.

1217
00:56:56,925 --> 00:56:57,525
That's great.

1218
00:56:57,645 --> 00:56:58,785
Uh, rest of the world.

1219
00:56:58,785 --> 00:57:00,015
Please don't blow anything up.

1220
00:57:00,015 --> 00:57:03,645
So we can do our leadership
column, uh, podcast next week.

1221
00:57:03,675 --> 00:57:05,115
Like give us a week here, guys.

1222
00:57:05,355 --> 00:57:05,805
Jesus.

1223
00:57:05,865 --> 00:57:06,435
All right, me too.

1224
00:57:06,495 --> 00:57:06,855
See you later.