Welcome back to Fantasy Football Game Plan. Last episode, we broke down the AFC East and today Quinten and I are going to take on the AFC North. We've got training camp back in action and it's kind of a lot of work to keep up with everything that's going on already.

Officially one week away from our first football game, even though we won't really be able to see too many of the stars we're looking forward to. Football will be back. We'll have people in their jerseys and they'll at least be, to look forward to.

Exactly. Yeah, I, I'm looking forward to that. Put 'em in pads, let 'em run around a little bit. So we had our first training camp scare yesterday with Justin Fields. The first thing that I saw was he tore his Achilles, which we had just literally talked about him. So I hope we're not jinxing anybody in the AFC North by talking about them. 'cause we, we love Justin Fields. And then yesterday, yeah, but it was not an Achilles injury. Thank goodness. He dislocated his toe. I guess somebody stepped on him and now he's day to day. Hopefully he's going to, pick back up pretty soon.

That is one thing to, as we're filtering out through these training camp news, a lot of these training camps, like make it so the players have to be carted off. I know, I think the chiefs, their training facility and where they like rehab from injuries is down the hill from their actual field level. So they're going, they made it a rule that they're going to cart anyone, even if they like jam their finger.

Yeah, that makes sense. I mean, we've been to Colt's training camp and it's a long walk back to that building

Yeah,

and you don't wanna ride your bike. A lot of them ride bikes back and forth, but if you got hurt, you don't wanna be on a bike either.

exactly.

So what other news have we heard?

So the other couple things is we saw Aaron Rogers and DK who we will be talking about later on this podcast, get on that field in their Steelers jerseys, and the crowd was very excited. And not quite the start. The duo was looking forward to where their first pass from Rogers was intercepted, but it is probably telling a more accurate story of that team, that they're gonna lean on that defense. then the only other thing of note, really. Is that Stafford is currently not practicing with the team. Some to monitor with that back injury we've seen, particularly with Stafford, he's an older quarterback that's taken a lot of hits through his career, so keep an eye out for that back injury and making sure that he gets back on the field in kind of a prompt time.

That worries me a little bit because this is not the first time that we've heard about his back injury. This does seem to be a little bit reoccurring and backs are an issue.

Yeah, and that's a pretty new offensive line that they're shaping up for, for the Rams. So something to keep, keep an eye on.

Yeah, we'll have to watch that. Before we jump into things, if there are any ladies out there looking to play fantasy football, please check out fangirl football.com. We've got leagues forming now. They're starting to fill up, so jump in, join us and get in one of our leagues today. So let's get started with the Ravens. Is this Lamar Jackson year? Finally?

According to the sports book, I think they're, they're one of the favorites. They're co favorites for the Super Bowl, and really on paper, it's tough to come up with an argument against them.

It is kind of like the Bills. It was really hard in the last episode to come up with anything wrong with the Bills, and we're just going right back to Lamar. Not a lot of changes to this team as well.

Yeah. One thing, whenever we're looking at this depth chart is it's almost identical. The only piece that's really changing out is their left guard, and even that, uh, that's a player that they've had experience for that's been a part of this team. They know the operations. They're not. Trying to get them up to speed. He's been here, so, um, really we're looking at kind of a mirror image of what we had last year.

Exactly. Only problem is everyone's a year older. Including Derrick Henry. So how you feeling about Derrick Henry at age 31? Is he still our unicorn?

I, if I have to bet on anyone being an outlier, it's Derrick Henry who has been an outlier for everything else on the field. Even just his physical belt, like he dwarfs other professional football players. And so I'm willing to take it if the team co-signs, they gave him an extension this off season. They believe that he is at least good to go for the next couple years. And I think from fantasy that he's gonna be a value until he retires. Until we see that dramatic cliff. Uh, I'm gonna be taking him in drafts Really probably just looking to hop off as soon as we see that decline on the field.

Yeah, I'm kind of with you. I like Derrick Henry, um, of all the older running backs, and we have a lot this year, it seems like that are right around 29 to 31. I, I believe in Henry. I haven't seen a whole lot of injury with him, but. To be honest, the Ravens are in good shape even without Derrick Henry, because Keaton Mitchell is now healthy again. We saw him at the end of last season coming back and Justice Hill. They could definitely take some of that workload off of Henry if they wanted to, but I think we're gonna still see Derrick Henry getting those touchdowns.

Yeah, he was exactly what we expected for last year in the same old Derrick Henry. He had his kind of almost trademarked at this point. Uh, win loss splits where he averaged about seven points more in wins. The only other thing about that running room back room is I think Justice Hill is a pretty great value. Currently in best ball. He's going as running back 58 and he's just heavily involved as you can kind of see, um, in the target share graphs later, like he cuts out a decent amount from that passing game. And contributes to that passing game. And anytime that this team, let's say that they're in a few more negative game scripts, they're behind teams this year, he's gonna be involved on the field and I think he's a good value just standalone for flex. Um, and then if anything were to happen to Derrick Henry, he'd be a great insurance.

Yeah, I think, uh, that's a good point though, that the only drawback about the fantasy value for this team is how strong their defense is. And, you know, it's not like the Bengals, which we're gonna get to next, that need to put up all the points because they can't stop anybody. The, the Ravens don't have to. And we saw that a little bit last year, but they still delivered fantasy wise. So let's go into. Uh, the kind of plays that they run. You have some personnel information here for us and what they like to run. Um, and if you could give us that one minute explanation again of what this personnel chart is showing us.

Yeah. When we're talking personnel, the first number in the personnel, there are always two digit numbers. And that first number is the amount of running backs that are on the field. That second number is the amount of tied ins that are on that formation. Um, and then there's different formations with that personnel, but it's just telling you who's on the field. Baltimore is very unique where they are. One of very few teams that 11 personnel with one running back and one tight end isn't their most common. That is by far the most common in the NFL. Baltimore runs a lot of 12 personnel where they're having both tight ends of Andrews and Likely on the field. So it's something to consider as we're going through that. These wide receiver threes and wide receiver fours are just not gonna be on the field as much as they would be on other teams.

You think the, so this is, this is last year's rate. Do you see any changes or do you think they'll remain pretty consistent where they're, they're kind of switching it up a lot, but they do. I mean, if you add in that 22 to the 12, they've got two tight ends on the field, 43% of the time.

Yeah, and I think that's just gonna be pretty consistent with, Likely an Andrews, I think Ted Todd, Todd Monken, they're offensive coordinator is pretty good about. what skill players they have available. And I much prefer to have Likely on the field a lot more than DeAndre Hopkins. So I think we're gonna see that continue and they had a lot of success, success with it last year. So.

Yeah, let's move on to the target shares, and you've got Zay Flowers. It looks like remaining fairly consistent. The real jump here is for Isaiah Likely.

Yeah, not a lot of new on this team. I think will kind of fill in with those wide receivers, three and four, but not really carve out a significant role in this offense. I do think Zay Flowers is undervalued as a true number one option, especially for such an elite passing team. we watched Lamar throw for, A ridiculous amount of touchdowns. He only had one rushing last year and still, Zay flowers only wound up with four touchdowns, when you compare it to and Andrews who ran really hot on touchdowns, one in seven of the Bateman and Andrew's targets were a touchdown. Not just receptions, but targets throwing the

That's crazy.

It's ridiculous. Uh, league average is about one in 20. So if we see that come down and swing towards Zay, I think he could be a true elite number one option and be valued like it. And right now you're getting him at a pretty crazy value at, wide receiver, where's he at? Wide receiver. 28 Best Ball for an elite Number one option on a. Team that

Yeah, a winning team. That's, that's very interesting.

I do think, yeah, the only other note, and really the only difference is I think we got Andrews another year older and they're gonna have to make that contract decision this year between keeping Andrews and Likely, and so I think the better butt is the younger player there. And they'll probably give an opportunity for Isaiah Likely to shine in this year's offense.

I have to agree with that. Andrews is 29 and yeah, at the end of the season they're going to have to make a decision and Isaiah Likely is 25 and we've seen Likely have some really big games when, when used without Andrews. So hopefully we'll see how it goes. Alright, let's move on to the Bengals. Oh wait, we forgot to do our over and under. So the projected wind total for the Ravens is 11 and a half over or under 11, and a half's kind of high, but I'm feeling the over here.

Yeah, I think right now we are in off season Ideal World and on paper this team should be a 12 and 13 win team. Um, unless there's significant injuries. So I'm taking the over.

All right. Moving on to the Bengals, their projected wind total. We'll just start off with it. There is nine and a half. I like the Bengals

the sneak peek for the rest of my review of this team is

and.

I do not think they're gonna get there. I think they have major flaws. Um, and they are. Pretty concentrated of where their talent on this team is. And if anything were to happen to those key individuals, um, then we're gonna see an under that nine and a half.

So those key individuals being Ja'Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, and Joe Burrow.

Yeah, the guys making all the money on this roster while they refuse to pay any defensive player or bring in any significant free agents. So almost all their money is tied up. Or such, a huge portion of their money is tied up in those three individuals.

Well, I pulled out my Burrow jersey and I've got my lucky necklace on, so, you know, I'm kind of hoping that they make the over, but I hear ya. It's hard to not believe in Joe Burrow.

He is, I think he's one of the best quarterbacks, and it's gonna be fun football to watch. It just doesn't seem

Okay.

a sustainable way to operate the team.

All right. Uh, they did bring in a new defensive coordinator, not feeling good about him, it sounds like.

I don't think they're really setting, setting 'em up for success. So that new coordinator is al golden, but there's just not a lot of talent on this defensive roster and we still haven't seen any of the people. Um. Involved in this pass rush show up to training camp. So we have Trey Hendrickson holding out for a new contract. He wants to be paid, his value. He was about the only good player on this defense last year, and then their first round pick. Tomar Stewart is also holding out for the language in its contract, so neither of them are getting reps right now if they're not signed before. The season starts then this defense could be even worse than it was last year.

Okay, I am gonna go on the under then, but. We know that a bad defense when you've got this offense ends up with a lot of fantasy goodness.

Yeah, that was, that was the recipe we had last year. And why Burrow and Chase were league winners, so.

offense. When we, when I'm looking at this personnel chart here, they don't vary that much.

No,

They don't.

you what they're gonna do. and they are going to pass, they pass a lot higher than the league average. Um, and they really only use 11 and 12 personnel. So they use 11 personnel about 60% of the time, and then about 30% of the time they're running 12. Which, and then you have about 10 in the various other personnel groups. So those would be like your goal line packages, your fourth down, your more situational, um, personnels. But they run a lot of three wide receivers, which, so we'll probably see a lot of formations with Chase Higgins. And then it's kind of a discussion of who that third's gonna be. Do you have any lean between, uh, Burton who. Is looked at as kinda the more talented prospect or Iosivas, who's more of the professional and got it done last year.

I like Iosivas, I, I mean we saw him have some good games with Burrow last year, and I always believe in a little bit in that chemistry, and they've already worked together, so I don't know why I would be swayed from that.

Yeah, I think it would be a pretty dramatic turnaround. I mean, Burton had so many issues, like not showing up to practice on time, and it would take a, he would have to really step forward and prove to those coaches he deserves it, to move above Iosivas on that depth chart. So I think unless anything were to happen, we'll see the three we saw last year.

How about Chase Brown? Um, is he going to have a bigger impact this year? Last year they were trying to split with Zach Moss, and then Moss was hurt, and so Chase Brown had to take on a lot more. They didn't, they brought in p Ryan this year, but he, he's not really, you know, an RRB two. So is it all going on the shoulders of, of Chase Brown?

I think so. And the way that offensive coordinator is talking about him so far in training camp, they want to get him heavily involved. It was also very impressive of just the work he was able to do once he got that backfield to himself. Last year. So last year, even though he wasn't the starter full time, he still carved out over an 11% target share on that high volume passing game. if he's the full starter from week one, then he's gonna have a significant role in that passing game and be very valuable for fantasy. I don't think we're gonna see a lot of mix in with, or like a lot of mixing in the other running backs. Uh, Joe

Not mix in since he's gone.

Yeah, but mixing in that spill back, um, I do think for that number two option, I'm leaning towards Tahj Brooks, a talented rookie that they drafted with Zach Moss. Uh, starting on the injury list,

Sounds good. Tight ends. Are we gonna see more tight end usage this year?

Gesicki is a very interesting note because this team is so top heavy the Chase and Higgins and Chase Brown. And Barrow options, if you look at like where they're going in the fantasy drafts already, they're all basically in the top five rounds. And then you have to go all the way down to pick 173 to find the next Bengal, and that's Mike Kaki. So I think that's a little too confident that Chase and Higgins are gonna be healthy throughout the season. And Gesicki was really good if either one of them went down. So I

Definitely.

late and like a great stash TE2 into on your roster.

I agree. I really like him. So. All right. Uh, I'll go the under. I'm gonna pull for the over on this team, but the defense is scary.

Exactly. Like I are must watch football. They're exciting football. I hope that we see not another year wasted of all this talent. But I can't bet on it.

Yeah, let's move on to the Browns, projected wind, total of four and a half. You think they can even make that.

I would lean towards the under on this. I think compared, especially coming from the Bengals, which are at least exciting. Um, don't know what the expectation for this group is. I think the ex, the hope for this group is that. They don't make the history books of being one of the worst teams in NFL history and they can just make it to next season.

Yeah, there's like. Not a lot going right on this team. So they did bring in a new rookie running back that I was getting all excited about in Quinshon Judkins. But then he went and got arrested for domestic violence and now he's out indefinitely. They hadn't even signed him to his rookie contract, so he doesn't even have a deal right now. And he's off, I guess, in Florida dealing with his legal matters.

Yeah, he is not a camp, not signed, uh, which does pave an opportunity for the other rookie. They drafted Dylan Sampson. if anything, if this were to linger and he still does not arrive to camp, then I think s Samson will have a lot more of a role in this offense. just the question of will that role be valuable?

Uh, well, I don't feel like Jerome Ford can. Stay there. You know, he's not going to be the only running back that they're running, so it's gotta be somebody else. So maybe he can become fantasy relevant, although I'm pretty much just out on this entire team just crossing off all the Browns players. 'cause I don't know that there's anyone that I really wanna draft from this team for fantasy. Um, how about starting quarterbacks? How many are they gonna play this year?

Yeah, I think the line would have to be around three and it's like, do we get that fourth? I think that's basically just gonna come down to do they keep four going into the season and they might cut one of these guys at the end of training camp and let them walk. I think they'll probably keep both rookies of Dylan, Gabriel, and UR on their roster just to try to get an idea if they have anything in those rookies throughout this year, uh, to evaluate and make a decision going into next year's draft. think Flacco would be the best option for those past catchers. Uh, do you have a lien of who you'd want to see?

I don't wanna see Flacco. I mean, I saw him at the Colts last year and that went very badly. So I. I'll take somebody else. I don't know. You know, next up is Kenny Pickett. I don't really need to see Kenny Pickett again. So yeah, give me a rookie and gimme some hope. But

I

do we want.

Shedeur's tape, um, coming into the draft, but the NFL kind of told us their thoughts on him letting him go to the sixth round and. It's gonna be interesting of how much of a leash they're given. The thing about being a first round quarterback rather than like a sixth round, is the moment you're bad. They have every excuse to pull you when you're that first round. There's so much investment. People have your jersey and everything. But Six Round is telling me like, yeah, you might not make this team.

So do you think all the people that had Flacco jerseys from a couple years ago are like digging them out and putting them on and wearing them around?

I think so, and I think that's the only reason I'm leaning towards him being the starter is at least a couple years ago, this team was exciting and like made a push to the playoffs and there's a lot of those veteran players still on this roster that. Um, you know, at least want to be a pro. They don't want to be a joke of the NFL. They want to be a respectable football team that people don't wanna play. Um, and lean on that defense. So I think they're gonna give it towards Flacco.

Yeah, I think he'll start the season. So I don't know how many games he'll continue for the season. It just depends on is he at least exciting? Do they actually think they can win games? We don't think he can. They can. So that's a little bit different. Do we even need to talk about the personnel? It looks pretty simplified. Uh, do they just go through so many players that they don't complicate things?

Yeah, not too much going on. I The only thing that they play a lot of 11 personnel at a 72% rate, so an 11 personnel. We're gonna have three wide receivers on the field we should see a lot more Cedric Tillman this year. He had a concussion last year that kind of limited the amount of time he was on the field, but he really had a stretch of games. That he was pretty valuable and he was playing extremely well. So I am curious now that he's back healthy again. If that'll repeat, if that was just a fun three game stretch we're gonna talk about, or if it actually looks like there's some signs that that's here to stay.

Yeah, looking at the target share graph, you've got him up there, so you think he's going to to edge out in Njoku for a bit.

Yeah, I think it's gonna be kind of a. Three headed attack here. Um, attack's kind of a strong word for I think what we'll see, but, uh, they'll at least split a majority of the targets between Jeudy Tillman and Njoku. Pretty, um, fairly,

Okay. Alright, so we, we've gotta make a decision. Are we on the under for four and a half?

I'm gonna take the under, I think this team especially. I know the players want to put up a respectable performance, and they have some key parts of the defense that could make it tough and could just bring other teams down in the dirt with them, but just don't have good enough quarterback play or

Yeah.

especially without judkins to win a lot of games.

Yeah. What do you think? Is he gonna make it back? Or is that just a big mystery? I guess the first sign would be actually signing a contract. So if we see that happen, then we're gonna have to think more about him. But until it does,

the suspension too, like we might not see him until

'em like push that off to next year. The NFL likes to, you know, drama. They like the drama of it.

like waiting until the case has been ruled, until they give out judgment. So.

All right, well, we'll watch that, but we'll be on the under. All right, now we got the fun one. Let's get to the Pittsburgh Steelers. Projected win total is eight and a half. And will Tomlin continue his streak? He's never had a losing season. Is this going to be his first losing season?

I think I am always inclined to pick the under and I just get proven wrong. So I, what's, what's another year I've taken the Pittsburgh Steelers under and getting proven wrong again. Um, so I'm leaning towards the under eight and a half.

I am on the underside as well. Uh, another question in my head, who gets their way? Arthur Smith or Aaron Rogers. They're, they've both got like big egos and Arthur Smith wants to run the ball. Aaron Rogers wants to run out the clock, which you would think they would go together, but in Aaron Rogers mind, it doesn't always work that way.

I do lean towards, we're gonna see more of an Arthur Smith style, and I think Rogers kind of had to agree to that to come join this team. The only reason I say that is because their off season. Um, free agent signings and all the moves they've made have kind of supported a roster similar to the offensive style they've played previously. You know, focusing on the tight ends, focusing on the running backs.

So let's talk about the running backs. I know you like the new rookie that they brought in, and you have confidence that Arthur Smith is actually going to use him and not revert back to, um. Jalen Warren, or even worse, Cordarrelle Patterson.

Yeah, uh, I think he's still making appearance on this roster, which is pretty crazy. But, I do really like Caleb Johnson. He was extremely impressive in Iowa and I think this organization, hand chose him. He was my third best running back. of this draft class with Gen only Genty and Hampton above him. So I really like his running style. I think he has that crazy productive, big 10 career in his past, similar to like Jonathan Taylor that was also overlooked and let slip to the second round. So I think he gives Arthur Smith that running back that's going to consistently be where he's expected to be and make one move and get up the field. also has a lot more speed. I think his workout would indicate from the combine. If you watch his highlights, you'll see plenty of breakaway runs. Um, so I'm not really concerned with his ceiling outcome. I think he will take over the ba, the, backfield sooner rather than later.

You think Caleb Johnson was calling up Bijan and going, how do I get Arthur Smith outta my way?

You, uh, you cosplay as Tyler Algi.

Yep. Uh, so what about their personnel? What do they like to run?

They are, um, kind of similar to the Ravens, that they run a lot of extra tight end looks. Um, their one unique kind of trait is 13 personnel. They run 13 personnel with three tight ends. So on this team that's gonna be Jonnu Smith, uh, Darnell Washington and Pat Freiermuth, they run all three of those guys on the field. Around 15% of the time, which is about five times higher than league average.

That's kind of crazy and that's why they needed Jonnu Smith,

yeah,

who I still can't believe they stole from Miami, but you know, they did.

the scenes issues there,

Definitely. I.

but. They also, when they're running with those extra tight ends and those extra blockers, um, they're kind of telling you what they're gonna do when they're in that 13 personnel. They're only passing it 27% of the time, so they're, we're gonna just out physical, you we're gonna bring in these extra big guys, we're gonna line them up and we're gonna tell them to go take on that linebacker one-on-one and try to f free up Kaleb Johnson. And then maybe we'll do a play action, deep to DK or something off of that.

So they're hoping that Aaron Rogers doesn't have to throw it a whole lot.

Yeah, I think his job on this roster is to help them continue to win over, win that turnover margin, uh, like they do somehow every year. I.

Not the way he started off training camp, but let's go into the target share graph. So they brought in DK Metcalf, they got rid of George Pickens. I guess Tomlin couldn't handle. You know, too much drama and he already has enough drama with the ones that he brought in, so he shipped Pickens off so they don't have to deal with that drama.

Yeah, we see a lot of departed targets on this one, so there's a lot of opportunity and with just Pickens and Najee leaving, that frees up about a third of the available targets, I kind of have Metcalf slotted in pretty one for one with what Pickens was able to do. don't think he's the best fit with Rogers, but I think he's still the clear number one on this team. And Rogers pretty reliably goes to the his number one option, he doesn't have that same route running finesse and the ability to sit in zone coverage and kind of beat zone, uh, the way like a Devonte Adams does of Roger's past. I do think.

they have somebody that Rogers may favor more? That is a good route runner.

There's a couple other options. So your other options are, Calvin Austin, but my favorite is Roman Wilson. So they took Roman Wilson in, last year's draft and he really never got an opportunity. He suffered injury and training camp last year, and then he was on the field for like one game and suffered another injury. So we never saw an opportunity. For Roman Wilson to be a part of this team and cut out his role. But that was his skillset in his calling card in college was against his own coverage and the route running finesse. And from early reports and training camp, he's the wide receiver running, in the 12 personnel. So when they only have two wide receivers on the field, it's Roman Wilson and dk. So I like him as a deep sleeper. You can take him in like the last pick. In a best ball draft that's like 20 rounds. So

Yeah.

deep sleeper and, uh, someone an eye out for, for waiver wires throughout the season.

Yeah. As long as Aaron Rogers doesn't poison this team, then maybe Roman Wilson can can have a good year. We'll see. But I think we're still on the under. All right, so we've been through all the teams. The what order? Are you putting this division in?

Yeah, I took the Ravens over and then the other three unders, and I'm gonna go Ravens, then I will go, I'm just gonna be different and go Steelers and then Cincinnati and Cleveland, think

we have the top and the bottom kind of locked. We, they're given.

Exactly. And right now the, the betting lines are one game difference between Steelers and Cincinnati.

Yeah, it could go either way, or maybe they just end up tied.

That is the wrap up for the AFC North today. Next week we're going to be talking about. The AFC South. So we are, uh,

I.

have been to many OC Colts games and had frequent arguments about the Colts quarterback room, so I'm sure that that will come up and we will have lots of discussion on that. Next week,

I, I'll be ready. I know we love to debate Anthony Richardson, although I, I think you, you don't like to as much anymore?

we will see, uh, yeah, that there's been

i,

Plenty of training camp highlights coming outta that room, but there's also been plenty of interceptions even in the

yeah.

so.

Yep. Alright, well, um, it, we don't forget, we've got the ladies leagues forming@fangirlfootball.com. Jump over there and join one of our leagues ladies. We'd love to have you. Um, otherwise we will see you in the next episode on the AFC South. I.