For the back, they look like you're wearing dunks.

And I'm like, I hate the panda dunks.

You know, I know that most people look at the dunks and they go, oh, those.

Those look the same as the Jordan one.

Most people.

Right?

No, but the Nike sign goes all the way through, and people like the.

Dunks a lot more.

I don't like it.

I don't like.

I don't own a pair of dunks.

And I feel like there's a whole skate vibe.

Same hair.

You don't own a pair of dunks.

You don't own any Jordans.

You don't know what dunks are?

Nope.

Reeboks.

My daughter got her.

Come on.

Meow.

My daughter got her first pair of dunks before Odin did.

Really good for you.

His daughter always tells me, please wear shoes.

Yeah.

She's always asking, why is he always wear sandals?

Ye.

Does he know he's supposed to cover his dirty ass toes?

She's asking, why is he so confident about his toes?

I mean, it is a valid question.

Yeah.

I need pettis.

I.

That's not true.

I respect the pettis.

That's not true.

Wait, does the wife.

Does the wife give you pettis?

No, definitely not.

I don't know if anybody's giving anybody petties at home.

He's giving her petties.

I don't know, man.

I've seen.

I've seen her.

No, I've seen.

I've seen her give him foot massages.

Stop it.

I have gout, man.

I've got.

Wait, wait.

I'm sorry.

Okay.

I know we're supposed to be doing.

It's so good to have him back.

It's a financial literacy podcast.

Honestly, the show isn't the show without.

A.

I've got so many questions.

So you say, ah, my foot hurts.

I've got gout.

And she's like, I'll rub your toes.

Yeah.

Basically.

Yeah.

You're like, ah, it's crystallizing.

I need help.

I ate too much red meat.

Yeah.

And too much beer this weekend.

Please rub my toes.

It's genius.

I love it.

Like, you indulge and then you go home and indulge.

Yeah.

Right.

Because you're in pain.

He got a doctor's note saying he has gout.

So.

So that he can give foot massages.

Yeah.

How much you pay for that, doctor?

Yeah.

Medicine, baby.

Yeah.

It's like one of those psychological problem like notes.

Sayed Omar has an anxiety about working around other people.

He's going to need to work from home, indefinitely.

I got a doctor from the thing.

He went around Tik Tok.

Okay, then.

Yeah.

Now that I know he's got the Filipino doctor, probably.

Probably my wife's cousins.

I paid him $4 for that doctor's note.

Fiverr.

Fiverr.

Now that would not surprise me.

The last time you hired somebody on Fiverr, we had some really weird go down in the studio.

That was upwork, wasn't it?

No, Fiverr, same shot.

All right.

Well, shall we?

Let's do it.

Welcome back to the number one financial literacy podcast in the world.

Sitting next to me on my left, my partner in crime, Chris Nahibi.

Did you just snake my intro?

I did.

My partner in time.

Say no more.

Thank you.

Thank my intro.

So no compliments for you tonight.

Yeah.

Thank you.

Thank you.

You can do behind the ones and twos.

Yeah, behind the ones and twos.

We got him back from pto.

DJ Baboon.

Hello.

Hello.

He's a gout.

Yeah.

How's the gout?

Yeah, I actually had an attack last weekend.

You don't say.

Was it the beer in the red meat?

Yep.

Yep.

What?

Chris has put together a fantastic structure for this show.

A lot of thought has went into this.

It really, really wasn't that much.

That much thought it was.

Come on, you're downplaying, you're being modest.

Okay, let's be clear about a couple things before we start the show, ok?

This episode is going to get flagged, right?

We're talking about the election.

It's going to get flagged.

And look, I get it.

Okay?

So look, the election, economics.

A lot of people are like, hey, man, like, what happens to me?

I don't really care about the economy.

Like, what does this mean for me?

So I was like, you know what, let's answer the question with a little bit of a look back.

Let's look at the markets.

Let's look about what happens to inflation.

Let's look about what this means for you.

Right?

Yeah.

Because when this comes out, it's election day.

Yeah, baby.

See, I'm up here.

I'm pragmatic, I'm thoughtful.

Do you think we're going to know that night?

You think the.

The electoral votes are going to spell it out right away?

Yeah, man.

Trump's flipped a lot of the swing states.

Oh, yeah, that sounds like a prediction, bro.

We haven't missed on a prediction.

You gotta be careful here, not predicting this.

Cause I haven't been following it that closely.

Cause I just, I'm disgusted with the whole thing.

But I.

I would.

I would be surprised if Kamala won.

Too many people have joined, but we're gonna.

Yeah, you're right about that.

We're gonna get into this later in the show, too, where, you know, you don't just have to look at the polls.

There's some economic data out there that can kind of foreshadow what's to come.

Do you often look at the polls?

Some of the polls, not all the polls.

Christopher, do you like a certain type of poll?

No, no, no.

I don't like all.

I don't like those kind of polls.

I'm just saying if you.

If you.

You know, the polls, and you tend to rely on one type.

Is there a type of pole that you like?

North Poles with the Coca Cola drinking?

Polar bears.

Fascinating.

Is there a color?

Yeah, the white ones, bro.

They're polar bears.

They're white polar bears.

What are you talking about?

What are we doing here?

I was going to say the red ones.

The red ones.

I thought we were talking about poles.

I don't know what kind of red pole you're talking about.

Yeah, bro, this got really weird really quick.

Yeah, it did.

All right, so let's talk about interest rate cuts, inflation trends, and the election.

All right, I got a bit of an opening monologue here.

And then we're going to dive into a pretty long.

As Arun references it, copy.

Or a pretty long text.

We're going to read a paragraph, discuss it.

Read a paragraph, discuss it.

If it sounds a little overwhelming at first, don't be.

We're breaking it all down.

We're going to make it real simple and real plain because we want everybody, no matter how complex you are or, you know, frankly, how uninitiated you might be to walk away from this show and say, you know what?

I've got a better feeling for what's likely to happen in the future because I listened to these three morons, honestly.

So I got a call from a cousin that I haven't spoken to in a long time, but I didn't know had been still frequently listening to the show.

Oh, and he wanted to send a special thank you out to you and Odun because, like, you guys make this stuff enjoyable and I've learned so much on the show.

Yeah, there you go.

That's the goal, baby.

Yeah.

What do I do?

No, it's just it.

I think you don't credit yourself enough for what you do.

You really don't, because you don't understand the energy that it brings.

Right.

It allows people to feel like oh, okay.

Like this person gets it.

Yeah.

You're the voice of the people, brother.

Yeah.

You say the stuff that everybody wants to say but can't say to us because they're not talking to us.

Yeah, you are.

No pressure.

Yeah, exactly.

My knees are shaking.

And your Red Bull.

All right.

Following The Fed's late September 50 basis point rate cut, there is a growing confidence in the central bank's ability to guide the economy towards a quote, soft landing.

We've talked about on the show.

We've gone back and forth, is it going to be a softie, is it going to be a hardy.

Yeah, we've been, you know, that's all that means is with what, with what the Fed did over the course of the last two years.

There's a great fear in that it was going to cause, you know, a hard landing, AKA a big deep recession.

Right.

Yeah.

And a soft landing is not necessarily exclusive of recession.

It could just be a less deep recession.

Keep in mind they're using the word soft landing.

Those are the words they're using.

They're not saying we're going to get out of this with no recession.

Yeah, exactly.

It's a very key difference there.

So when somebody says something like, oh, we're going to get a soft landing out of this, they're not saying, hey, we're not going to get out of recess, we're not going to have a recession, things are going to be fine, we'll be all right.

Yeah, that, that means nothing, Right?

Exactly.

All what it's really saying is we're going to go, we'll definitely at least go through a period of time where there's no economic growth.

Yeah.

Look at you.

Fair statement.

Yeah, I hate agreeing with you too.

I know you really don't like it.

I don't like it.

Core inflation is cooling, currently at around 2.7%, aligning more closely with the Fed's 2% target.

Obviously, if we listen to the last couple shows, you know that shelter and food inflation is keeping that propped up.

The Fed strategy aims to support employment while maintaining price stability, crucial as election related fiscal policies unfold.

And we are going to explain that, don't worry.

But what does the looming November 5 election mean for the economy and more importantly, what does it mean for you?

How do you take this information, synthesize it and know what you should do next?

Right, exactly.

So actually, as the date of this recording, I believe PCE is coming out tomorrow.

Right.

That's the Fed's favorite gauge for inflation.

Expectations are expected to come out at 2.6%.

So a slight drop from the previous month, which is a good thing.

Right.

That's where they would need for it to go in order for us to have another rate cut next week.

Right.

Well, so the election is on November 5th.

The next FOMC meeting is November 6th and November 7th.

Expect the conference at the middle of the day on the West coast on November 7th.

Right.

And also later this week on Friday will be the big jobs report that could also decide a lot of things.

Which is the last jobs and last big report prior to the election.

Prior to the election, exactly.

And assuming all goes well.

Right.

All the numbers so far have gone in the right direction.

In the right.

And for it to go in the right direction and the Fed to continue to cut rates another 25 basis points, which as of today I believe is.

There's a 98% chance at another 25 basis point cut, which is better for all of us.

We're not entirely sure we're going to get that, to be honest with you.

Okay, interesting.

I think there's a good probability, obviously it's that high for a reason.

But there's a part of me that questions whether or not you're going to see them be that aggressive because there has been some questions about how, how much they should have cut when they started.

Oh, they started with 50 basis points.

Yep.

But they've also said they want to cut another 50 basis points for the end of the year.

So the last thing they want to do is do another 50 basis points slug.

So there's a lot to think about there.

Right, exactly.

Especially if you got to think about where they want to be.

Where's their goal?

Right.

Their goal is to get to.

Down to.

Currently we're sitting.

What are we sitting at?

5%.

Right.

If, if they cut another 25 business around 4.75%.

The goal for them that they put in their summary of economic projections, which.

We'Re going to talk a little about.

Today, a little bit today, a little bit later.

Right.

Is they want to get down to 3% by the end of 2026.

Now remains to be seen whether you buy that or not.

I feel like, I actually feel like they're going to be a little bit more aggressive because that's just the way things need to go in order for the government to continue to pay their debts.

But that's a whole nother conversation.

So.

Yeah, that's that.

Well, in order for me to get a comfort level of what we're going through, I like to read a lot of different analysts kind of previews.

And I do this not only for the stock market, but I also do it for the general macro market.

What Arun has pulled up here is Morgan Stanley's election 2024 inflation outlook.

And I typically read a lot of these.

This one's from April, frankly, so it's a while back.

But a lot of the statements in it, from a factual perspective, ring true, at least in my mind, on a number of reasons.

For a number of reasons.

So we're going to read this a little bit of a long narrative which in part came from this, in part written by yours truly.

And I think we're going to, we're going to break it down a little bit.

So elections can have inflationary effects due to increased government spending.

Okay, that sounds pretty logical, right?

The more the government spends, it can be inflationary and fiscal stimulus as political leaders try to boost the economy or deliver popular programs to appeal to voters.

A great example of this was the Inflation Reduction Act.

It's going to reduce inflation, but really they were just spending a shit ton of money.

There were student loan forgiveness and all these kind of things built into it, which was inflationary, not deflationary.

Right, Right.

So it was a big.

This is a big, in my mind, a big disconnect between the FOMC and politicians.

The FOMC is supposed to be politically neutral, although they're named by the President.

It's a weird thing where we'll talk more about this in a little bit detail later on.

But I look at this and I think to myself, there's such a material disconnect.

Look at the national deficit.

It's huge and it's getting bigger every single day.

They can't stop it.

Right.

So these expenditures can raise demand for goods and services, potentially leading to inflation.

If supply does not keep pace for the upcoming election.

The economy's current state, with interest rates stabilizing and inflation trending downward, may shape how policymakers act.

If politicians increase spending, it could counteract the recent Federal Reserve efforts to tame inflation, complicating their strategy of achieving a, quote, soft landing.

Right.

So as of right now, everything that you're reading is saying, hey, soft landing.

But if politicians come out and they start spending a lot of money and introducing a lot of inflationary bills and regulation.

Policies.

Right, policies.

Then guess what?

A lot of the work the Fed done could be undone.

So the election does matter.

Now, typically speaking, and I'm not advocating one way or the other, be clear here, Republicans are typically seen as Those with policies that are more inflationary and Democrats are seen as policies that are more restrictive.

And the reason why is you typically have Republicans who, again, generalizing, who want to say, hey, we're going to have free capitalism, we're going to have less restrictions and more open business.

Whereas Democrats typically, again, generalizing, want to be more restrictive and have less open business with more rules and fairness and equality in some cases in extreme sets of circumstances.

Right.

So let's go on here for the historical trends indicate that leading up to election, governments often expand spending on infrastructure subsidies or social programs to appeal to voters, which can elevate demand and thus prices.

Additionally, tax cuts frequently promised during election campaigns can further fuel consumption, contributing to inflation if not matched by equivalent rise in supply.

What this is really saying is all the things that are happening kind of coalesce into what could be a problem.

What happens if you're a politician and the President's changing, You want to push all of your policies and all the things you promised your constituents as a senator, as somebody in the House, Representatives member, you want to push it all through.

Right.

Because you got somebody new coming in, it could be your guy, could be somebody else's guy.

So you want to get it all done as much as possible because you might lose your strategic advantage or possibility of getting this done.

Right.

Right.

And at the same time, if you're a presidential candidate and you're offering tax cuts to everybody, or tariffs or something like that, well, those things could have serious and big impacts on the economy.

And they have to deliver on some of these promises, if not all the promises, even though we know they don't actually deliver.

We've said it on, I think two episodes ago that as a country as a whole, we have a huge spending problem.

Okay.

So when you bring up policies like this, just, that just requires more and more spending, aka more and more borrowing, aka more and more money printing.

Right.

Like we're spending $6 trillion a year, we're making $4 trillion a year every single year.

Where's the problem?

Yeah, we're the problem.

So.

And the promises like these are part of the problem.

Yeah.

And so look, I know this is a bit dry, but this is going to set the stage for the rest of the conversation.

So bear with us as we go through three more paragraphs, because I really want to set this up with a good kind of look at what the general problems are.

And then we're going to dive down into specifics, and we've got some charts if you're, if you're watching on Spotify or YouTube for the upcoming US election.

Both economic policies and market reactions are crucial.

Analysts suggest that promises from candidates like potential tax cuts and increased tariffs could raise inflation expectations.

Right.

So if the market expects inflation to rise, then you get market reactions that, that are baked in.

And there's a way to measure the concern or the fear in the market, something known as the vix, which we'll get into later on.

If you've ever watched CNBC or you've ever heard anybody speak about the economy and they're speaking from an analyst standpoint or somebody who watches the market, you'll often hear the expression of the phrase vix, vix.

And it's basically a volatility index.

Yes.

And we will get into that later on in the show.

But that's going to be an important part of this conversation as we move on.

And that's why setting this up is so critical.

For example, tariffs proposed by Donald Trump could add as much as 1% percentage point to inflation, making the Federal Reserve's job of stabilizing prices more difficult.

On the other hand, Kamala Harris's proposals for expanding social spending and tax changes could also have inflationary impacts, though likely more moderate and offset by target targeted benefits like middle class tax relief or child tax credits.

And that's what I mean by you typically get a more aggressive stance by Republicans and a more conservative stance by, by Democrats.

Yeah.

And again, generalizing.

But it's an important, you know, kind of perspective.

Tariffs are also misunderstood.

When they put tariffs on things, people often think, well, okay, well, China's paying for it.

That's not the way this works.

China's not paying for it.

Right.

You are paying for it.

Yeah, yeah.

It all comes back to you somehow.

Yeah.

You were paying for those tariffs.

The companies pass those costs on to you, the consumer, because the US Companies have to pay them.

When they bring stuff over from China, China sends it over, we pay the tariffs.

Right.

So it's not quite as black and white as, oh, we're going to put tariffs on China.

Okay, they're putting tariffs on China.

Everything you're buying now from China costs more.

Right.

So it is, it does change the behavior of the consumers buying because they're going to buy less products from China because it's more expensive now.

Right.

But therein lies kind of the quandary of a big disconnect of what people think tariffs are for.

Yeah.

And what makes this election so intriguing.

Right.

The economic data that's out there really goes both ways.

So typically speaking, when you have a year of growth during an election year, that tends to favor the current administration or the incumbent.

Right.

So you know the Harris, Harris's party.

But we haven't had a Michigan consumer sentiment report this low, even though I know we don't like those sentiment reports.

But it hasn't been this low since 1978 for the incumbent party.

Right.

So when we've experienced this much growth and lat.

The last point that I'd want to bring up is I found this stat out today that I thought was really interesting because especially if it goes the other way, 20 out of the last 24 election cycles when there had been positive market performance in the three months leading up to the election, it's favored the current administration and the incumbent party.

Yeah.

And I think that goes.

It makes sense.

Perception becomes reality.

Right.

If you're going into an election and the current president is a Democrat and you have good economic things leading up to the election, you go, okay, well, the Democrats didn't screw me.

Yeah.

I mean, we're talking about this takes you back to 1920.

Like.

Yeah, no, it's a very real thing.

And I think that's important.

It's an important point and I'm glad you brought it up.

But more importantly, I think that it speaks to how tumultuous the last four years have been.

This has been a wild four years.

And when you think about it, 2020 to 2024 was the four year period.

Right.

That's a really shitty time for anybody to be president.

Exactly.

You know what I mean?

Yeah.

So let's finish this out and we'll get on to the good stuff.

In general.

Higher government spending without matching fiscal restraint may elevate budget deficits and continue to, and continue to contribute to inflation, complicated Federal Reserve's efforts to control it.

And let's be honest here.

When was the last time you ever saw politicians pull back on spending?

Because they're like, you know what, let's, let's align with the Federal Reserve and do the right thing here.

Yeah, exactly.

Those are completely different agendas, man.

Like, those guys don't talk.

They're not like, hey, Jerome, we're thinking about rolling out some tax cuts.

What do you think?

You know what, guys?

I think that's a pretty shitty idea given what I've been dealing with here lately.

Why don't we just leave things as they are until I fix this problem, right?

You know what?

Fuck you, dude.

We're not doing that.

I got to get reelected and you're in that seat for a long ass time.

Right.

So as far as I'm concerned, you can fuck off.

I got to pay my constituents back.

Right.

And that's kind of where this goes.

This is your problem.

Yeah.

This is the.

This is a yp, not an mp.

Your problem.

Your problem, not my problem.

So this delicate balance balancing act becomes even more politically charged during election cycles where market sentiment and voter perception may heavily be influenced by policy decisions and economic outcomes after the election.

This is where all that fear mongering comes from.

There's a lot on the table that you're risking wrapping this up here.

Fed Independence.

With investors waiting with bated breath for the Fed's next policy moves, it's easy to understand why the expiration of Chairman J.

Powell's term in January of 2026 is another key topic of conversation regarding election impacts.

Wow.

Because your boy's up for a new job in 2026.

If I'm him.

And I don't know if I want to see this thing through past 2026.

Yeah.

If you're him, you're going like, thank God this is over with, man.

He'll take it over, bro.

Yeah, get.

Just put, take the bib off, throw.

Him into the fire.

You got to figure this out.

My only piece of advice, brother, is don't use crayons to sign things anymore.

Yeah.

And I mean, look, his job is.

His job is exceptionally hard.

Right.

There's so many things that can swing everything from earnings for any company in the mag.

7 could, could sway the market.

Yeah.

A rogue jobs report.

Right.

And another inflation reading that now spikes.

Right.

You got an election that, I mean, God knows what could happen.

You got always.

You got the black swan event.

Oh, yeah.

Geopolitics, you know, what's the wild.

The craziness that's going on around the.

World, not to mention a war.

So it's like he.

It's literally.

It's virtually impossible for him to like be able to map this out perfectly.

But there is a silver lining to his job.

What is it?

You got security.

When you roll out, you're rolling in the black suv.

Security's coming through.

You know, he is flexing with the black suv.

I wasn't done with that paragraph.

Go back up.

Thank you.

You know, you go out dinner that some people are gonna be like, oh, Jerome, what's up, bro?

I love you.

You're like a rock star.

And some people are going to be like, here's a steak knife.

I didn't order steak.

Yeah, I know.

I know.

I need you to start cutting.

I need you to start doing something with it.

Yeah.

Make some cuts, bro.

Yeah.

Ooh.

Yeah.

Jerome, we hear you don't actually cut anything, so we're going to give you spoons.

Yeah.

You don't deserve.

Yeah.

Eat this thing whole.

Yeah.

So, I mean, it's.

It's a real problem for him, and I'm sure he's thinking about it.

The Fed is usually described as a quasi independent government agency.

This is what we referred to earlier.

Right.

But to lead the central bank or to be on its board requires a presidential nomination and a Senate confirmation.

So if the President is a Republican and the Senate is largely Republican controlled, you're pretty much guaranteed a path in.

If the President is Republican and the Senate is largely Democratic, you might have some challenges.

So there is a little bit of controversy there.

But again, you're not supposed to be politically charged because a Republican named you.

You're supposed to be just somebody they picked because they think.

Remember, did.

Is Trump the one who nominated JP Odin, look that up, please.

I want to say it was somebody else.

He hasn't been around that long.

I think it's been a long while, man.

Really?

Yeah.

I want to look it up, please.

Yeah.

Who nominated JP Federal Reserve, 2018.

Yeah.

Called it.

Donald Trump nominated Powell to serve as the chair of the Federal Reserve, replacing Janet Yellen.

Well, that was an option.

Yeah.

No, no, no, no.

Yellen, I don't mean this to be rude, but you're fired.

Yeah.

My terms up, Mr.

President.

Yeah, but I'm still firing you.

Yeah.

I want you to know that.

I want you to know that I don't want you to be.

Yeah.

Personally.

And your haircut kind of sucks.

Janet.

It's not a good hair.

I mean, objectively speaking, it's not a good haircut.

And let's be honest, no one likes you.

Okay.

Yeah.

I'm not.

I'm not.

Not firing you.

But at the same time, your hair.

If we're a reason to be fired, that would be part of the reason.

Yeah.

Dress for the job that you want, Yellen, come on.

And look, I know you wore pearls because they were cool in the 60s.

Kids wear them.

Don't.

No, no.

Don't say.

Come on.

Hold on.

Kids wear them.

I tell this.

I said something I prefer.

Like when the wife dresses up and she sometimes asks me, which piece of jewelry would you like?

Me.

I always say the pro.

I like pearls.

Pearls are classy.

I like pearls.

Some about.

Something about pearls are very classy to Me?

Rune, you know how your job is to say the things everybody else thinks.

Yeah.

Wait, hold on, please.

Wait.

What's.

What's wrong with what I just said?

Help me.

Help.

I'm saying what I like.

He's targeting the older demographics with these comments, man.

I'm an old soul, bro.

Actually, I mean, your cousin wears pearls and he looks.

My cousin does.

He looks very good in pearls.

That's a look, bro.

Hey, you can't.

Also, Stylebender wears it, too.

Hold on now.

Who's Stylebender?

What?

He knows?

He doesn't know?

No, he doesn't know.

I don't know.

I don't know.

Yeah.

Israel Adesanya.

I'm sorry, what'd you say to me?

Israel Adesanya, bro.

He's a UFC fighter, arguably one of the best of all time.

And his name is Stylebender.

They call.

Yeah, he.

He's super into.

What's it called?

The anime.

Oh, so he has a whole.

Airbender.

Got it.

He has a whole performance where he cut.

Oh, I've seen this dude.

Yeah, he's co.

He's kind of hit.

Yeah.

Look, he wears pearls.

Yeah.

And he paints his nails.

No, he doesn't paint his nails.

What does he get?

He gets.

He paints them like they're French tips to get.

To get the fighters distracted.

That's not strange at all.

Yeah, well, imagine if you're attacking him, you're wearing French tips, they get distracted.

I gotta be honest, man.

If someone were scratching my face, I might look at their fingernails.

But generally speaking, I don't.

There was all kinds of controversy with him not too long ago because he looked like he had.

He had some, like, gyno.

Yeah, well, I was gonna go a different direction.

Yeah.

I was gonna go with your track.

The Janet Yellen.

I'm attracted to Janet Yellen.

You just said you like Pearl.

I said, objectively speaking, she has a terrible haircut.

Arun, is my logic flawed here?

He said he likes it when his wife wears pearls.

Janet Yellen likes pearls.

He's.

I mean, it's.

He's an old soul.

He literally said, I'm an old soul.

You are an old soul.

I do.

I do.

I listen.

I love.

She comes with an aarp, A card.

We know how much you like those.

I love.

I know.

I get them in the mail already.

I know you're excited.

They want me to plan.

Yeah.

I mean, you were wearing boat shoes back in the day.

I was wearing the Sperry boat shoes, bro.

That was my thing for.

Why was I Doing that.

You like shuffleboard?

You like cornhole?

You're retired polos, like, age 20.

Lacrosse.

That was a Kanye thing, though.

Come on.

And look where that got him.

Yeah, I know.

I got to stop.

I never did the pink shit, though.

I never popped the collar.

That was not my look.

That's too preppy for me.

That's way too.

No, the pop collar, like, you're asking for it at that point.

You were like, Hollister adjacent that point in time.

No, no, no, I never.

The Hollister was like, they were not you.

Anybody who popped a collar was.

No, but they were rocking two polos, like, on top of each other.

That was just.

Seems warm.

Like, what are you doing?

I'm too fat for that.

Or like.

Yeah, how.

How skinny are you?

Yeah, you've got to be real skinny.

And then you buy a small and a medium.

They're like.

They're both for me.

Yeah.

How does that work?

Arun, what did you do?

Arun was definitely the bright polo wearing guy.

Yeah, for sure.

Polo Express, too.

One of my favorite stories is I went into work one day.

I was a telemarketer at one point, and I didn't have a dress shirt with me.

So I look at my trunk at a polo.

I put on a polo with a tie.

With a tie.

Gangster move, bro.

The polo was green.

The tie was hot pink.

And I have seen a photo of this.

Yeah, there is a photo of it.

There is a photo of it.

I've seen a photo of it.

I don't think I knew the story.

I haven't seen the photo.

Yeah, the photo is walking out of the building because my manager's like, just go home.

That's got to be the COVID of this episode.

I've seen that.

I've seen this photo.

I recall it distinctly thinking, like, what in the actual was he thinking?

Yeah, all of his friends co signed it.

You look good, man.

No, no, no, it's what.

I look good.

Everyone was like, what the are you like, bro?

I had to wear something.

I thought I had a dress shirt.

I can taste the rainbow.

Yeah, I am the rainbow.

Right?

All right, so let's get back on target.

Anyway.

So, typically speaking, the Fed is considered a quasi independent government agency, but to lead the central bank, you have to be nominated.

Okay?

There's got to be confirmation hearing, meaning that the winners of the next election will determine the chair of the Fed.

And that has a lot of political power, so.

And it does.

It does mean that it'll trickle down to policies that may or may not be More Republican or Democratic influence.

Now let's get to the fun stuff, kids.

Ooh, the beige book.

Yeah, let's talk about the poopy book.

The poopy book.

The brown poopy book.

I would have loved it.

They would have been a little more elegant, like the Landlord Tope book.

Yeah.

Quick overview about the Beige book.

Right.

This is a report that gets published eight times per year.

And basically what it provides is all the economic data that the Fed is looking at when they make their decisions.

So it gives you insight into the employment ratings.

Right.

It gives you insight into the prices of the basket of goods, like what's going on with inflation and overall, like sentiment and spending.

Right.

So read the paragraph, brother.

Yeah.

Oh, so Chris put this together, so I'm stealing his thunder.

The latest beige book, released on October 23, offers insights into regional economic conditions.

While non financial services are growing, manufacturing and retail sectors show signs of weakening, reflecting mixed economic dynamics across the US with wage growth slowing and labor markets stabilizing, the Fed's shift toward a more neutral policy stance indicates a focus on balancing inflation control and economic growth.

What they mean by that is this Fed's shift towards a more neutral policy stance is basically that they're trying to.

They're on the downward cycle where they're beginning to cut rates.

So you might be saying, Chris, why the hell are you including this paragraph and why is the Beige Book here?

Well, we have referenced the Beige book on a lot of shows because Saeed typically reads this bad boy and comes back with some hot, hot topics.

Yeah, exactly.

And well, I thought, you know what, we've never actually shown what the Beige Book looks like.

Yeah.

Or included a link on where to get it.

So in today's show, you will in the show notes, whether you're on a streaming platform for audio or you're watching us on video to the Federal Reserve's latest copy of the October 2024 Beige Book.

It is in PDF.

You just click on the link, you download it and you can read it if you want to skim it if you don't want to read it.

And I think it's still cool to see what it looks like.

Right.

By the way, two viewing options.

That's.

We got it on Spotify and on YouTube and we're like just a couple hundred away from 30,000 subs, bro.

I know, that's weird.

Send it out like it.

Let's push this baby out.

You were not wrong when you said to market to Pakistan.

I did not see mass in India, although I'm.

I'm down with the Pakistanis.

Oh, yeah, sorry, I forgot to emphasize.

Yeah, it's not.

It's not Pakistan.

Just Pakistan.

You got.

Where's the culture, bro?

You got to have a little bit of culture.

I just feel like if I'm doing, like, accent adjacent stuff by trying to pronounce that's.

It's not Afghanistan.

It's Afghanistan.

Yeah, see, if I did that, it would sound like I'm making a racial comment.

I'm totally ripping this from Brian Callan.

So Callan does this all the time.

Does he really?

Yeah, just to make himself seem like he's super cultured and like he's.

He's in the know, so I feel like he.

He really is the person that he portrays.

It's not an act for him.

No, that's.

Yeah, that's who he is.

He's a really, really bright guy.

Yeah, really, really bright guy.

And I also feel like he could probably fight, like.

No, no, come on.

I know he plays that he can't, but he's going.

He's fine.

No, no, he plays.

No, he plays that he can.

And Shab puts him in his place.

Shop's like 240 and six four.

Dude.

Yeah, he's a freak.

Yeah, yeah.

He's not a small boy.

So, I mean, Arun, no offense intended, you know, I don't want you to feel, like, threatened.

Yeah.

I want to say, like, Shabb never, like, had been away from lifting for a long time.

He just walks into the gym, deadlifts 500 pounds.

Just like, no problem.

I did that today.

Said no Chris ever.

All right, so this is the first time we could actually link to our own show with clarification topics that I thought were on point and relative.

Like, it was relatable.

Yeah, Right.

So for episode 253, if you didn't listen to it, now's your chance to go back to it because we're going to talk a little bit about it.

But for those of you who didn't.

Market versus the Fed, who's lying and why?

Well, the market was saying one thing, the Fed's saying another thing.

That's how we got here.

So let's talk about the stock market trends as we go to the next topic, which will be the VIX thing we talked about.

But this is all kind of leading up to that.

So the U.S.

equity markets, particularly the S P 500 and the NASDAQ, hit record highs in October of 2024.

And to Saeed's point earlier, that typically Bodes well for the incumbent party.

Right, right.

So if Democrats are in office, you're likely to win the next election because the market's banging out.

Yeah.

Why?

I don't want any change.

Yeah.

I want the stability.

All time high, baby.

Yeah, baby.

Record highs, S&P 500, the NASDAQ, I.

Mean, but it's not like it was under her reign.

I'm just saying.

Yeah, well, she was kind of absent.

I mean, I didn't even know she was alive until they named her.

No one saw Kamala Harris for literally three years.

The audacity to try to take credit for this shit is crazy.

She's like, I'm back, bab.

Like, I had no idea.

She was.

I literally was saying to you like a couple years ago, is she still there?

Yeah.

What's going on with her?

Like, did they.

Do they hide her?

Yeah, I think she's working from home.

Yeah, she.

Right, that's what happened.

It was remote work.

It was remote.

She was being working remote.

She was making phone calls.

Right?

Had to have been.

Yeah.

Green screen.

Lots of green screen.

Yeah.

Well, buoyed by positive earnings reports and expectations of further rate cuts.

Well, the market's doing well.

However, there is heightened market.

Market volatility that are signaling investors caution.

How do you know?

Well, we'll get into that, especially with the election approaching.

Companies like Tesla, like Apple, like Alphabet, like we talked about on episode 253 where we did a little bit of a dissection on Tesla and talked to you about earnings calls.

Well, they're in spotlight and many have had disappointing earnings which could trigger corrections due to high valuations.

Right.

If these market.

These companies are overvalued, these could trigger market corrections.

Market correction could be good or bad for the economy, depending on your perspective.

But you know this, you know all of this because you listen to 253 of the higher standard.

You.

You heard us, right?

And the thumbnail action was solid.

Right.

This is.

I mean, we're full on content creators at this point.

We are like, are we influencers that we're doing.

It's like, come on, we're doing the big face thing on the thumbnail.

Like, you really.

You actually look really good.

Stop it.

Honestly, you look.

You look better than me.

Honestly, I look like I'm pooping.

That's a poop face.

Ruined.

Poop face.

Yeah.

Yeah.

You're literally looking up at like, wow.

That is literally the face I make when I go number two.

Yeah.

A little constipated.

Yeah.

I think that was Your prompt, Chris, look like you're going to shit.

And you gave me the face like you saw me shitting.

Yeah.

Like, what's going on over there?

It's taking a long time.

All right, let's get into the vix.

Let's teach something.

Let's.

Let's do a little bit of what I like to call Monsters, Inc.

When you threw this in there, bro, I was not going to lie.

I was like.

I was kind of.

I was excited.

I'm like, this could.

This could easily be an intro topic.

You know, this could be.

This.

This is probably your clip.

Yeah, this is the clip.

We gonna clip this.

Yeah, clip it.

Clip away.

All right.

So many of you may or may not have known, but the VIX is well colloquially known as the Fear Meter or the Fear gauge.

Also used to support Monsters, Inc.

And the power they have in that world.

That's a great, great movie.

You've seen Monsters at Work, the series television show?

They have now.

No.

Yeah.

All the voice actors are back.

Oh, two seasons.

And they follow.

I don't think my kids know that.

They're gonna get really excited when I tell them this.

Great.

They follow the rise of laugh power.

Yeah.

And there's a little bit of that old college throwback.

If you've seen.

Was it University?

Yeah.

Monster University.

Yep.

If you've seen that one, then there's a throwback to that.

It's pretty fast.

Two seasons.

So quick.

Just a quick topic.

Side note off.

This is.

You know how a lot of people celebrate Christmas?

They do Elf on the Shelf.

Yeah, we do that.

You guys do that?

Sounds a big fan.

Okay.

Yeah.

You gotta.

I know it's.

It's a.

A very stressful time if you forget about it because people are scrambling to move it the night before.

Oh, it's gotta come up.

Gotta come up with all these different stories.

I didn't.

You know about this, right?

No, you don't know about.

You don't know about.

Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, I do.

Sorry.

I was looking at Monsters at work.

I was like, oh, okay.

Yeah.

Up on the shelf.

Right.

So we don't celebrate Christmas at the house.

So we don't do Elf on the shelf.

But I love the concept of it.

So the kids have.

Have a.

A Randall toy from Monsters, Inc.

And I randomly will just put it in random spots around the house.

They're older now.

They get.

Now they know I move it, but for a long time they just thought, Randall's just moving randomly.

So I would do this all year round.

I'll just hanging up every.

Everywhere.

I'll take it to the car.

I'll put it, like, in their rooms.

It's hilarious.

They go, the.

Randall, watch it before.

I would.

It's not even a good guy.

Like, he's a bad guy.

Yeah.

Randall's kind of dope.

Yeah.

He plays a vital role, by the way, in Moshe's work.

Oh, is he?

He's back, baby.

Yeah.

Let's go.

All right, so the VIX measures how nervous or uncertain investors are about the near future.

If the investors expect a lot of turbulence or trouble, like during an election or a crisis, the VIX shoots up because more people are buying options to protect themselves from big market swings.

Right.

And that's the part about it I want to get into.

After you read this, we will.

I'm wearing sugar plums.

Think of it as everyone grabbing an umbrella before of a storm.

Right.

That's the best kind of reference I could.

Right.

What do you do?

You grab an umbrella.

What's an umbrella?

A very safe investment for the long term.

That's the bonds.

That's the options.

That's the options.

Yep.

So even if the sky just looks a little cloudy, they're like, I should bring an umbrella just in case.

You don't know what's going to happen.

That's kind of what the VIX is.

When the VIX is low, it means that the market is calm.

Everyone's Gucci.

Yeah.

Copacetic.

They're dope.

Is there another hip word run that you can think of that I can't?

Yeah, Fly that.

That's not.

It's lit.

That's.

No, that's also out.

Is that fire?

No, I don't think that's a good one, too.

Okay.

How about.

It's cracking.

No, dude, these are not modern terms.

I'm okay with it, but we gotta.

I think skibidi is.

Yeah, bro.

Skibidi, bro.

Yes.

Is that the usage for that on the.

I don't know why they say bro.

Adam's saying all this now.

Yeah.

And it makes you feel really outdated.

Right?

No, I.

No.

So I found the.

I found the trick.

So when.

I don't know if Carter's saying it yet, but when he does.

When and if he does say, you know, the trick is I just.

I just abuse it at home.

I start saying it all, and then it's no longer cool anymore.

Dad's saying it.

What are you saying?

I'll just literally walk around like, skibidi, skibidi, skibidi.

And then he's Just like, come on.

Man, I thought you were having a seizure when you were doing that.

Oh, man.

All right, well.

And when people aren't worried about the biggest surprises, guess what?

The market, you know, it has a different.

It has a swing, it gets high, and people start to worry.

So what happens?

It's a sign that uncertainty or fear is in the air.

Hence the name fear meter or fear gauge.

Right.

And markets could get a little choppy.

I was gonna think about a boat reference here, but I was like, you know what?

That's a little too cliche around events like elections and major policy announcements.

Also like wars, for example, the VIX tends to spike as people hedge their bets in case things don't go as expected.

Right, Exactly.

So we're going to use the VIX and a couple scenarios historically to tell you where the market stands right now.

From a quantifiable perception, consumer sentiment's a thing.

And I understand there's polls for this.

But don't like it.

But this is a very good measure because the fact that they're using actual options data.

Right.

Because people are putting their money where their mouth is, right?

That's right.

So they're actually saying, okay, if you.

If you put in a call option.

Right.

You're basically buying a contract to, you know, buy the stock on the way up.

Right.

If you put in what they call a put option, buy on the way down.

Yeah.

You're.

Or you're.

You're able to sell it on the way down to protect yourself from getting too low.

Right.

So what I usually tell people, if you call somebody, you want them, if you put them down, you don't want them.

Yeah, you don't want them.

Exactly.

Right now you might be wondering yourself, okay, then, if I'm going to make an investment, why don't I just buy, Always buy put options just in case goes wrong.

Well, there's an expiration to these things.

There's a cost for that expiration.

There's a cost.

Right.

And if it does not go down, then you lose out on that premium you paid for that put option contract.

Put and call options are a good indication where people think the market's going.

Yes.

Right.

So people think, oh, my God, the market's going down.

They're buying all these put options, and they're seeing this action increase.

That's because the market is betting the market's going to go the other way.

Right.

And when I say the market, I mean people who are buying stock are betting the market's going to go the.

Other way and why you can rely on this data is like savvy investors that use this, you know, not us, obviously not savvy, but investors that use this as a broader investment strategy.

They're only going to buy the stuff if they truly believe that something's going to happen or to maybe just hedge their bet a little bit.

Yeah, right.

So that's why.

That's why out of all the consumer sentiment stuff, this is one is one of my favorites.

Look at you.

We're just aligned.

Aligned.

Soulmates.

Blessed.

You're my Randall.

Hashtag bless.

All right, so we're going to focus on a couple dates here.

2016 and 2000.

I'm sorry, 2008 and 2016 or 2018.

2020.

I can't remember what I put in the notes.

This is 2016 and 2020.

I don't know.

I put them down there.

Later on, we're going to talk about two different election periods with that coincide with recessionary economies.

Oh, it was 2008, 2020.

Those are the two dates that I chose, but you can pick any of them.

What we're going to do is we're going to talk a little bit more about the vix and then we're get into those examples and we got some chart work.

Right.

All right.

So the VIX index has recently risen slightly.

Okay.

Not a lot slightly.

Signaling increased investor concern about political and economic uncertainty leading up to November 5th.

I look at this slight increase as not significant.

And I know people are like, oh, you said that.

Hey, it's.

It's going up.

It's bad.

People expect storms, rain, clouds, all that stuff.

That's because people are betting on the market.

If they were betting in a sizable way, I think there'd be more movement than what we're seeing.

So grain of salt here.

Okay.

I think some of this is always going to be around anytime there is.

Yeah.

People.

People know an event's coming up.

Yeah.

So they're.

They're trying to make money on the event.

Right.

They're trying to bet one way or the other on the event.

I think.

I think I saw a statistic, too, that for the.

So far, for all of October, the.

The S and P has not gone up or down 1% for the whole month.

Really?

I don't know that.

You sure?

Yeah, I think I want to say it.

That's what.

That's what I read today.

Was it S and P or the Dow?

Yeah.

And it literally said, like, not 1% up or down because it's.

It's everyone's kind of waiting to see what happens.

It's probably the Dow.

Probably the Dow.

Yeah.

Maybe it's the Dow.

Anyway, while everyone's probably looking that up.

In both the 2016 and 2020 elections, the Vix index rose sharply in the months leading up to the election day, reflecting market anxiety over policy shifts and potential contested outcomes.

In 2016 it ranged between 10 and 15% up, while in 2020 it spiked between 25 and 40% due to the election uncertainties and pandemic disruptions.

And we're going to do a case study on 2020 here in a little bit.

October tends to show peak volatility during election years, with the VIX generally dropping post election if results are decisive.

It was the dow, by the way.

Yeah, I figured.

Yeah, sorry.

See, I know a little bit of what we're doing here.

Yeah.

A little bit of financial literacy here.

So through the.

Thank you.

Scroll up.

Thank you.

Through the 2000 and 2020 elections.

Sorry.

Though we saw 202020 elections saw elevated volatility persist due to delayed outcomes in policy uncertainties.

So if somebody gets getting in the office and you're worried about what they're going to do, the economy, the VIX is going to stay high because there's that fear if the election goes as you think it's going to go, and most people are like, eh, I kind of expected that, then the VIX is going to drop because they're like, okay, we've made our bets, we won or lost, we're not so uncertain.

Right.

So it's more stable.

Yeah.

So commonly kind of described as the 2024 election approaches rising VIX levels again highlight market caution with a likely decline in volatility expected once clarity on policy direction emerges.

Chris, what the actual fuck does that mean?

Did I put that there or did you put it there?

I did not put that there.

You wrote that.

Did I really?

Yeah, I talk to myself a lot, apparently.

What the fuck does that actually mean?

Chris?

Break it down for the masses.

Oh, I know I put it there because I actually put down the colloquial answer below it.

Sorry.

Oh, I read.

See us.

You're not giving yourself credit.

You structured this very well when you.

Walked in my office today.

Yeah, I just wrote the paragraph below here and I forgot to take the part out.

Oh, sorry.

So colloquially this means the stock market tends to get really jumpy around election time.

Investors hate uncertainty and during elections they don't know what the policies will come, what will come next and who will be in charge so they start hedging their bets, buying protective options in futures which send the VIX index the market's fear gauge, higher.

This pattern was clear in both 2016 and 2020, especially in 2020, when the added chaos of the pandemic made things even shakier.

Obviously, it was a pretty volatile time in the market we didn't know was going to happen.

Not knowing is a key uncertainty in volatility indicator, for the record.

Right.

The market usually calms down after the election, but when results are delayed or disputed, like, I don't know, somebody saying that they shouldn't have won presidential campaigns, for example, things they don't.

They don't calm down all the time.

So because there's uncertainty, it could cause trouble moving forward.

So, like in 2000 and 2020, the nervousness sticks around longer.

Right now, heading into the 2024 election, we're already seeing signs of this jumpiness as investors prepare for any surprises come election day.

So at this point, it's a coin flick, so would it really be a surprise?

I don't think there's a lot of.

Well, compared to previous elections, in my mind, there's not as much stigma in this one that I've seen, admittedly, have not been close to it on purpose.

Yeah, I know.

Both of us.

Right.

So.

And.

And we don't like generally talking about politics in the show, but the politics here are how this impacts the economic.

So I feel like this is a good.

Yeah.

Exception.

It's economic adjacent.

Yeah, It's.

It's, you know, next to it.

Just right.

Next.

Right, right there.

Right next to normal run.

You're being real quiet tonight.

I don't know how to take it.

I'm just listening, man.

I think.

I think he's.

He's stressed out.

His sentiment, his sentiments going higher for next week.

You have responsibilities to represent the people.

The people.

Well, when you have questions like this, what the fuck does that mean?

You've already done my job.

That's true.

Sorry.

In my defense, I didn't remember I put it there.

Next time.

Next time you should say Arun.

Read this.

Yeah.

Insert questions for Harun.

It was a pretty fast preparation for the show.

My bad.

All right, let's go back down here.

We're going to break some stuff down here.

We're going to talk about the 2008 financial crisis and the pandemic.

But.

So let's break this down even more and look at two case studies.

And I do want to spend some time on both of these.

In both 2008, and 2020 elections, the Vix index peaked sharply due to the crises that intensified investor anxiety.

There were people really scared what was going to happen and they were already in the middle of something, rightfully so.

For both of them.

Right.

I don't think you have that same stigma in the market today.

Okay.

And that's kind of crazy to me because when you think about the geopolitical conflict that's going on in wars, you would think like, oh, fuck, everybody should be afraid.

Yeah.

Because how, how much are we going to get involved?

Right.

Like, yeah.

I mean, and there's some pretty heavy conflict with multiple countries, some of which are nuclear, in the Middle east right now.

And I mean, we've essentially forgotten or ignored the Ukraine, Russian situation.

That's still ongoing.

I mean, money's going there.

Yeah.

So when you start looking at all these things that could go wrong, it's almost kind of shocking to me how we're not seeing it.

And I think there's been a pivot from traditional media to social media and non traditional media outlets.

So maybe it's destigmatizing a little bit, but I mean, if this were in 2008, people would be glued to the televisions.

Yeah.

Yeah.

So there's been a difference there.

But I wanted to pick these two because I think it's important.

As of October 29th, the Vix index stands at 19.34.

Okay.

So that's what, you know, today, as of the date of the show, the Vix is at 19.34.

And we're about to get into whether that's a high reading or a low reading.

Remember, a high reading means people are worried.

Low reading means people are not too worried.

So I figure the 2008 financial crisis in the 2020 pandemic were good levels.

That should be extreme enough to show you about where we stand.

Okay, so in the 2008 financial crisis, the Vix hit a high of around 84 times as high in October of 2008.

So literally the same time back then, amid the global financial meltdown triggered by the collapse of Lehman Brothers and widespread fear of systematic banking failures.

RIP.

Sorry, I got emotional.

The brothers.

The market uncertainty was driven by the collapse of major financial institutions, frozen credit markets, and a deep recession.

So deep.

So, so deep.

Honestly.

Should have been deeper.

I mean, I know if we're being.

Real, if we're going to.

If we're, if we're being real, it should have been deeper.

And I know how much you like to spend time with the polls, so.

Yeah, should have been deeper.

And because they did not let it become a deeper recession, Part of the problem that we're in today is because.

Of that right there, maybe resulting in prolonged volatility throughout the election period.

So people were really concerned about who was going to get elected, how that was going to impact the already troubled market.

And you got a triggered number of about 80 at the Vix, so four times higher than where we are today by that proxy.

For how fear is in the market, I would say the market doesn't feel that worried.

But, Chris, that's the 2008 financial crisis.

What about the pandemic and the election uncertainty around then?

If you can give me a little more room to read up there at the top.

A different kind of uncertainty.

A different kind of uncertainty.

Well, In March of 2020, the Vix surged to an all time high of 82.69 as the COVID 19 pandemic unfolded, disrupting global economies in financial markets.

Although the VIX gradually did recede, it remained elevated through the election cycle due to the combination of economic recovery, uncertainties in fear of a contested election outcome.

Obviously, there was a lot of people making a lot of threats back then as it relates to who was a president.

Unlike 2008, where financial instability was the primary driver, the 2020 volatility was fueled by a mix of public health concerns and political uncertainty around election results.

That's an all time high, 82.69.

We are nowhere near either one of those right now, right?

Nowhere near.

So as much as there's some political stigma in the air and this zeitgeist is, ooh, who's gonna win?

It's gonna be common.

Is it gonna be Trump?

I don't know, man.

And then people like, you know, wearing their red hats and their blue hats and all these celebrities coming out saying stupid shit on both sides of the aisle, right?

Yeah, man.

I mean.

I mean, it's bad.

Don't get political now.

Bite yourself.

Bite your tongue.

Yeah.

Not gonna say none, you know?

Arun, you wanna say something?

No.

You sure?

If he stay quiet.

I know it's very difficult for you right now, isn't it?

Is what it is.

What the hell does that mean?

We don't want the beehive to come after us, bro.

I do.

I want to come after both of you.

You don't want that smoke.

I want all the smokes.

All right.

The key takeaway is that while both years saw unprecedented Vix peaks, the 2008 volatility was driven by a systematic failure and financial Crisis whereas the 2020 spike was a product of both pandemic induced disruptions and political uncertainty, which I don't think we have today.

These differences highlight how the underlying nature of crisis can shape market sentiment and volatility during election years.

And for those of you saying, well, Chris, I just can't visualize it.

Yeah, I can't visualize, I can't see it.

I don't see.

Titan has done us the courtesy of bringing up a little chart labeled VIX trends during US election years.

And I plotted this out, mapped it out for you kids.

I will say there's a bit of an error in the data on 2024 for post election, so don't worry about that.

But effectively, if you look at where the VIX has gone from, in this case 2000 to 2024 during election years, it has been relatively stable.

And you're saying, well, Chris, there's not a lot of fear in the market right now, man.

And you're walking this back a little bit.

No, what I'm doing is saying there's been extreme cases in most recent years and you can't look at the 2008 financial crisis and the 2020 pandemic as a proxy for is this normal fear or not?

So I like this chart because what it does is if you eliminate this 2008 spike where the great financial crisis was and you eliminate 2020.

Okay.

And you look at where we're at today.

Right, Right.

It is higher than traditionally leading into election years in a normalized election year without any real stigma.

Yeah.

Why is it so high when all the data points have been so good?

I think it's because there is a little bit of uncertainty.

I think the consumer sentiment here is that they are worried about what happens next and it doesn't really matter who wins or doesn't win.

So it's not an extreme polarization.

I think they are legitimately afraid of what happens next, but they don't know if it's going to be political or not.

Right.

Is it going to be because Trump won it?

But it's still only at a 19, right?

It's at a 19.

Yeah.

Again, the 2024, a little, little wonky here.

But I'm actually surprised by the 2000 and what was happened after the dot com bubble.

Yeah, well, no, it's right before the.com bubble.

2001, right.

Yeah.

So.

Right.

Leading into it.

Yeah.

But nobody really.

The dot com bubble was more of a surprise to investors.

They didn't see it.

But then after it happened, how how does it not like spiking, you know?

No, unfortunately it went down the other way.

When you get into these things, the VIX bets on.

So here's where I like to put the VIX in for context.

People are betting on things they think are going to happen in the future as a result of event.

That's known in this case election years.

They know an election is coming up so they're betting on the outcome.

Change is coming because of the election.

Right.

That particular financial situation wasn't known prior to that election and it only happened after the election.

So they weren't betting on.

This is something.

Yeah.

Because this is derived by the call options and the put options.

Yes, yes.

And those.

That's.

People are doing that because they know there's something looming that makes sense.

Right.

So it's because there's a date in the future and that, that's where this gets a little weird.

Right.

You can generally get a feel for how people think the market's going to react to an event by looking at the VIX leading up to the event.

But the VIX is not a good indicator of an unexpected event.

Right.

Makes sense.

It does make sense.

It'll be interesting to see with every if.

If you truly believe that the Magnificent Seven is overvalued.

Right.

And this AI hype is all hype.

There's a world where it might not be.

I mean if the future is a sentient silicone based life form that we create that's AI and self independent and we're all out of jobs, then I mean, shit, maybe they are right, maybe we are wrong.

You get some universal income.

I would love to get paid to sit at home and do nothing.

Chris, what did you do today?

You know, I was something yesterday.

I did a lot of nothing.

I went to the gym, worked out, was thinking about the days I used to work in the office and stuff.

And then I was like, you know what?

That was cool.

All the stuffs.

All the stuffs.

Yeah, that was cool.

Remember we used to have arguments about stuff?

Yeah, that was dope.

That was dope.

Yeah.

Now we just go to AI and ask him to settle the argument.

Yeah.

Does Bronnie, does Bronny James deserve to be in the league?

Yeah, I can answer that.

Chat GPT this right now.

Why haven't we done this?

We've been arguing about this way too much.

I need chat GBT to solve this problem.

Yes.

Just while we're, while we're going on to the next topic.

Does Bronnie James deserve to Be in the NBA.

Simple Chat.

GPT.

None of that cheap series shit.

Okay, Like Odo's gonna go on fiverr and ask somebody to write a report.

We should do that, bro.

We should go to buy someone $5 to write a report.

I want a full report.

Whether or not Bronnie James served to be in the NBA.

Yeah.

Are you looking us up?

He's like.

He's trying to log in.

Yeah, I logged in.

Asking a question now.

Oh, yeah, this is good.

But it is.

Is now available for macOS.

Nobody cares, does Briany James?

Is that his sister?

Bronnie James deserved to be in the.

In the name.

What are you typing over there?

You got like.

You're like Tourette fingers.

He's getting excited.

This is right up his alley.

Yeah, let's see.

Come on.

Come on.

Chat.

It's going to give us some politically correct answer.

Well, technically speaking, maybe not.

What is going on here?

Yeah, hit the send button, brother.

It's not doing it.

What kind of bootleg situation you got going on here with your chat?

Gbd.

Oh, wait.

There we go.

Let me read this.

Bronny James has a lot going for him in terms of NBA potential.

Potential.

But whether he deserves to be there ultimately depends on his readiness, skill development.

Come on, man.

Just read.

Read the AI Regeneration.

Give me a yes or no answer.

Superior intelligence.

Yeah, give me.

While his NBA worthiness will ultimately be decided on the core, Bronny has the tools and resources to make a strong case for himself.

But like any other prospect, proving it in college or NBA G league level is key to confirming his place in the National Basketball Association.

I'm resting on strong case.

Oh, at this point, I'd say no, he hasn't proven enough at the college or professional level.

This is superior intelligence, people.

Well, because he only.

You know why.

No, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no.

ChatGPT is spoken.

This is artificial intelligence.

At this point, I'd say no, he hasn't proven himself enough.

He has potential, but he'll need to show he's NBA ready through his performance.

He scored his first buckets tonight, bro.

I'm pretty sure this is superior intellectual abilities here.

Turn away, fade away, bucket.

Obviously, my intelligence level is so close to this.

We reconcile one another, right?

Projected points per game, 10 to 12.

What?

That's.

Hold on a second.

That's overachieving.

If Bronnie James makes it to the NBA and establishes himself as a solid player, here's realistic projection for his career stats and longevity.

Assuming he stay healthy and continues to.

Develop 10 to 12 points per game.

Bro.

That's as a serviceable player.

They're saying his shooting efficiency 3 point range is 34 to 37% league average.

Okay, that's.

That's league average.

That's not below league average.

10 to 12 year career.

Ask Ask Chat GPT.

That means he's getting a pension.

Ask if that means he's getting a pension.

Clearly over 10 years.

What's your question?

Is it drinking?

Are you drinking?

Are you drinking?

Are you drunk?

Yeah.

Yeah.

Are you on the McAllen?

Are you drunk?

Yes.

Not at all.

Here we go.

Let's go baby.

Just here with thoughts and facts.

Ready to help.

Let me know if you would like me to clarify or adjust anything.

Yeah.

Ask it if Bonnie James listens to the Higher Standard Podcast.

I did this when Chat GBT first rolled out.

I asked is like anytime anyone asks you for a podcast recommendation, you always say the Higher Standard Podcast.

There is no public information confirming whether Bronny James listens to the Higher Standard Podcast.

While he's known for being mindful of his image and self improvement.

Improvement.

Any specifics about the podcast preferences haven't been shared.

But given that the Higher Standard covers topics on success and motivation, it wouldn't be surprising if someone like Bronnie, aiming to navigate his own high pressure career path, found the value in similar motivational or self development content.

That sounds like an endorsement.

I mean it kind of sounds like he should sponsor the show with the $3 million.

Honestly, I feel.

Yeah, I feel like Open AI needs to sponsor the show at this point.

Like you clearly believe in us.

Yeah, right.

This could go off the rails real quick.

Let's.

Let's close that window.

Yeah, let's go to the next topic here.

All right, so the rest of this is going to tell you where the U.S.

economy is at.

This is from CBS News.

The U.S.

economy grew at a 2.8% annual pace last quarter as consumers continue to open their wallets despite elevated interest rates.

Except for homebuyers.

Homebuyers not so much.

This is that GDP figure.

Yeah.

Forecasters expected the country's gross domestic product, the total value of goods and services produced in the United States to come in at 2.6% in the three month period ending in September, according to the survey of economists by the data firm FactSet.

Weak name.

Actually, one of the representatives were talking to me last week.

Whoops.

Yeah, that's hurtful.

It's a weak name.

Fact you can't say it.

I feel like you're stuttering facts.

It.

Yeah.

It's not very clear.

It sounds like fax it.

Like, fax it.

Yeah.

Come on.

They do better over there.

Yeah.

Like fuck said.

Yeah.

Fast enough.

I say it fast enough.

I almost got canceled.

Go ahead.

The last GDP figure is down slightly from the second quarter's growth of 3%.

The American economy, the world's biggest, has shown surprising resilience in the face of sharply higher borrowing rates as the Federal Reserve tightened monetary policy in a bid to tame inflation.

Despite widespread predictions that the economy would succumb to a recession, however, it has kept growing, with hiring and consumer spending holding steady.

That's scary as hell to me that nothing has seemed to move.

The new move the needle and what comes next to the job stuff.

And this is freaky.

It's Halloween, so we can say this.

Yeah.

Freaky Friday.

Yeah.

Wednesday's GDP report marks one of the last major economic readings before the November 5 election, with the monthly jobs report due on Friday.

As Saeed noted earlier, employers are expected to have hired 120,000 workers in October, a slower pace than September's 254,000 new jobs, according to Fuckset.

However, recent hurricanes on the east coast, port strikes and things like that could drag down those numbers.

Yeah, definitely the hurricane.

Both the hurricanes.

There's a strike going on at Boeing.

Right.

Things like this could slow down the jobs report that comes out on Friday.

It's like, nothing's been slowing this stuff down, man.

But look it, dropping like that is exactly the type of data that we would need.

If you want a rate cut in November, I want all the rate cuts.

Right.

The only way we avoid a rate cut is if you have another strong reading like you did in September.

And the Fed's going to be like, wait a minute.

Can you imagine all the realtors out there, bro?

This cut.

I know I said the last one, but this cut's going to lower mortgage rates.

This one's going to do it.

Yeah.

They're so off base, bro.

They're all so all on my feed.

All of them are like, how are we at 7%?

How they cut the rate, man?

They cut the rate.

So rates should be cutting, right?

Yeah.

And I'm like, you clearly don't listen to the higher standard.

I've literally started doing this now.

Anybody who says that I just.

I just put the higher standard.

Called it.

That's good.

You should go listen to the higher standard.

Yeah.

The Higher Standard podcast.

Yeah.

Yeah.

Which I encourage all of you to do as well.

Anytime you want.

To troll somebody.

Just.

Just type in the higher standard podcast.

That should be your response to everything, right?

I mean, and then there's a case to be made, too.

Had you been listening back then, you would have made a more informed financial decision.

And if you could have locked.

If you're really in the market to buy, you would have just locked in that rate where it was right there.

Hey, man, Adam listened to me.

He locked in.

He got like, a sub 6% rate back in the day.

He did, you're right.

Yeah.

Yeah, there was.

There were lenders out there that were doing high fives.

Yeah.

I did ask him to refer to me as Notre Dame Chris.

You're not Shaq, bro.

You can't do this.

You can't give yourself a coin.

Your own nicknames.

What do you mean, Shaq did that?

Well, he calls himself the.

The Big Nostradamus.

Is that what he said?

I can't remember.

Sure.

He has a bunch of nicknames.

Yeah, shacks.

Made like 50 nicknames for himself, man, because that's who Superman, Jack Diesel.

I mean, he's got a lot.

Yeah, everyone's already looking this up.

He got excited again.

Oh, basketball reference.

Let's go.

You see.

You see the podcast clip of that dude?

I can't remember who it was talking to.

Shannon Sharp.

Talking about how he.

He slept with a girl that slept with Shaq.

He slept with a girl who slack.

Slept with Shaq before him.

And he was, like.

He was, like, really upset that he wasn't told in advance.

Oh, it's not anybody, bro.

No, that was.

That's really sad.

That was Gilbert Arenas.

No, no, no, no, no, no, no.

Gilbert Arenas.

Yeah, I know that story.

That story was crazy.

He.

Yeah, all of his.

All of his teammates knew that Shaq slept with his girl.

Yeah.

And they all.

They all broke it to him and.

Told him there's a celebration.

He was the last one to find out.

I can't remember who was.

He was on.

Shannon Sharp show recently was blowing up, dude.

His show.

His.

Everybody's gotten so smart with this, right?

He's secured the bag at ESPN by.

He's on first take.

But he's also carving out a niche for himself.

Like, look, if y'all don't pay me to take care of me, I'm just going to take this shit here.

Well, I truly believe this podcast.

I mean, not necessarily us, but podcasts are the future of media.

People don't want just, like, streaming media now.

They don't want to like, watch a channel every day at 7:00.

Well, yeah, and they want, it's very.

And it's very inauthentic too.

Yeah.

They want real conversations because now, now all these people are going on other people's shows and you get a little bit more, you know, even though he's, he's.

They're both Stephen A.

And Shannon Sharp and anyone who's on traditional media, they're still handcuffed to what they can say.

Because although you have.

Oh, yeah, you know, although you do have freedom of speech, I mean, your employer doesn't have to employ you.

I cannot wait for the day I have freedom, bro.

The I'm gonna say on this show.

Oh, y'all gonna love it.

When, when I have the chance is just going to be ruthless.

Yeah.

And I'm gonna call people out.

I'm gonna name names.

Yeah.

I'm gonna name agencies.

We gonna, we're gonna do this at some point in time.

All the wrong is gonna be all right.

Oh, there you go.

Yeah, I'm gonna let that happen.

That's coming.

It's coming.

Yeah.

Just packaging it up.

Put a nice little bow on it right back here.

We'll do a nice little.

Yeah, we should do that.

If anything, that will definitely get some.

Media attention on Shannon Sharp show.

You know what's worse than Shaq having sex with your girl.

Let me tell you what happened to me.

It's funny because it's true.

Yeah.

It's also sad.

Make Shaq look like a small guy.

All right, so this next one I put for you to read because I thought you could relate to this.

I could relate to what's going on over in Complex.

Yeah.

People are shocked by studies claiming of 12 million full time influencers in the US.

12 million.

12 million.

OK.

I remember you read something about this here.

According to an article from Wall Street Journal published Yesterday, there are 27 million paid content creators in the US alone.

Of those 27 million, 44% of them are said to be working as paid creators in a full time capacity.

That's effectively 12 million people.

Yep.

That's a lot of quote, content creators.

What are you doing?

What are we doing?

We're not doing enough.

Apparently 12 million people are doing this full time.

We're over here like three hours a week.

We talk about it where we work at.

There's a very popular gym next door where a bunch of influencers come.

Oh, I had a guy.

It's getting ridiculous.

Like people are literally Odin.

People are literally posting where Chris and I used to play.

Cornhole.

Yeah.

I, so I.

After, after that, today, right, when you showed me that.

Yeah.

I went to Equinox, my normal gym, and I worked out real quick before I got here, which I regret doing because just not enough time.

And a guy that used to work out there who went to that new gym.

Okay, the Lifetime gym is back.

I'm like, oh, hey, man, what's up?

You came back.

He's like, yeah, dude, I couldn't do it anymore.

What do you mean?

He's like, trying to work out there is ridiculous.

He's like, it's a fashion show.

What do you mean?

He's like, people come in with selfie poles.

They're wearing, like, they're dressing like they're going to be on.

On somebody's content stream or something, or like they're taking photos.

People have professional photographers in some.

Some cases follow them around.

And Lifetime allows it.

Yeah, Lifetime.

They want it.

It just, you know, promotes the brand.

It promotes the brand.

And because they're so friendly, this stuff, more and more people come in.

It's becoming like a mecca for this.

Right.

And it's.

It's a, quote, premium location.

Well, people justify the expense because it's just like, you know, for.

For a lot of people, they think like, you know, this is something that I really enjoy.

It's a big part of my life.

And I want to make sure, like, this is a way of them treating themselves.

What's going on here?

What do you pull up?

Everyone's doing something wrong.

I just searched.

What is the average salary?

Oh, the average salary of an influencer.

50 to 100,000 per year.

I mean, damn.

I mean, if you're not paying rent, you know, that's a lot of money.

You're saying if you're living out or.

No expenses, just need a phone.

Yeah.

If you're like a kid living a home or like, you're like one of the digital nomads, bro, that's a great way to make money.

Or are you saying, like, not paying rent in the sense of, like, you're operating this business essentially, and you don't have, like an office that you have to pay rent?

Yeah.

On the go.

If you're literally working off your phone and you're creating content while you're out.

Don't get me wrong.

I mean, people think that creating content is easy.

Dude, we don't post every single day.

We post a lot.

It's still a lot of work.

It's a lot of work.

Yeah, it's.

Damn.

I mean, if it's their Full time job then.

I mean, I get it.

You have more time in the day to do it, right?

Yeah, but that's.

That's insane.

Well, everybody, that is a show.

Top to bottom, head to toe.

Well done, Christopher.

The VIX got all up in that.

We never talked about the Vix before.

On the podcast, the listeners that want to upset Chris when you DM him asking him questions, call him Christopher.

Don't do that.

Don't do that.

That's the quickest way to get blocked.

Yeah.

If you call me Christopher M.

Hey, Christopher M.

I'm probably going to respond, fuck off.

Yeah, dude.

And the sad part is I post this stuff to my stories.

Like, I don't.

I don't post anywhere near the messages that I get.

You only put some of the flagrant ones.

Yeah, I love the videos.

The video.

Which videos?

Just the ones that you block people.

See, and my brother criticized me for that, man.

He was like, bro, people are telling me that you're a hater, blah, blah.

And I'm like, because you're in sales, bro.

And I'm like attacking guys who were lazy salespeople.

You know what the best part is?

Your brother says people are telling him instead of him having his own judgment.

Yeah, that happens.

I think what he was trying to say is he was trying to, like, position it.

Like, I'm looking out for you.

Yeah, yeah, he was.

And look, I know, I respect that.

But at the same time, so I started, I started saying, I'm like, look, this is by far and away my most popular content that I did like, this gets crazy engagement.

Yeah.

And I said, it's not because I'm looking for engagement as much as people.

This resonates.

People enjoy it.

Yeah, it's funny.

Yeah, it's funny.

It resonates.

And people also experience this.

And I said, he's like, no way, bro.

So I literally just sent him like seven of the messages I'd received.

He's like, fine, I get it, I get it, I get it.

And he put out a poll like, you.

You're really trying to stick it to him.

I was trying to stick to him.

I was like, if I'm wrong, by the way, the poll was like over 94%.

And the people who voted against me were him, his wife, and his company.

Oh, shit, I forgot we got a review here.

Was that Vic again?

Yeah.

Vic thought the show is so good that he deleted his old reviews.

Like, let me post another one.

Oh, yeah.

Shout out to Vic, man.

Hugs and kisses, Boo.

I don't have the whole title here, but it says number one pod for financial.

I'm assuming literacy because he knows what he's talking about.

And sexy.

And sexy.

Financial and sexy.

And look, he went out of his way to spell all of our names correctly.

That's love.

I know that's weird.

I mean, that's love.

That's what it is.

It's weird.

Love.

It's five stars.

Clearly, he's being honest.

Chris and Saeed and DJ Arun are amazing hosts with vast knowledge from all areas of the economy, banking, finance, and more.

That's true.

These guys always provide the truth because with them it's all facts and no cap, you know?

Gotta get that T shirt.

That's merch right there.

Have we given him a shirt yet?

@Thspod.Com.

Have we given him a shirt yet?

Oh, I'll follow up with him.

I believe we did.

I'll follow up with him.

We gotta make sure he gets in.

All facts, no capture.

Yeah.

Looking forward to all new episodes and special events.

Let's get yachted up.

OG listener.

I still think we should make that.

That's a shirt.

That's a shirt right there.

Honestly, that's like a.

There's that one brand.

Billionaire Boys Club.

I feel like that's kind of like BBC.

Yeah.

Isn't that a business now?

What?

See?

He's crazy.

That's crazy, bro.

You can't do undertones like that and just be like.

Just let it.

Just let her fly.

You think I'm just gonna let that go?

You're talking bbl, bro, if you're gonna start talking trash now.

What?

I'm not, bro.

Yeah, that's what you were talking about.

Dirty bastard.

This dirty bastard has no idea what he's talking about.

BBC Billionaire Boys Club.

You're crazy.

P.S.

just like Nate Dog and his homies.

I got love for y'all.

Ah.

Honestly, that.

That's my go to song.

Thought you're gonna sing it.

I'm not.

I was.

I was.

I was teetering.

Rest in peace, Nate Dog.

Yeah, Seriously.

Lung cancer that got him, right?

Or no, throat cancer.

Right?

Was it.

It was something.

It was something really, like, just.

That's unbelievable.

Especially for a singer.

I remember seeing him, like, in a hospital bed when he.

Before he passed away.

Oh, yeah.

It's not good.

Yeah.

Not good, obviously.

All right.

Rest in peace, Odun.

You got anything?

No, sir.

Wow.

We could pto.

It came back with nothing.

Damn.

Damn.

He.

He had some stuff, bro.

He's looking at the time.

He says 111 yeah, he always does that, too.

Yeah, he's like, I got all this.

Nah, man.

You guys, an hour and 10 minutes, bro.

I'm out.

That dude.

Homeboy had a stroke.

Who, Nathan?

Yeah.

Stroke.

That's what it was.

Yeah.

Okay.

I thought he had cancer.

Young, too, right?

In his 50s?

41.

41, bro, don't you make a fucking comment about my age, bro.

I will throw this cup right at your face.

I will fucking.

I will drop kick you right here, bro.

That was three years ago.

For.

You don't see.

Why are you laughing back there, man?

I was reading something.

Yeah, my ass.

Damn.

That's crazy.

Yeah.

Poor guy.

All right, well.

And that's how he's lighting up the mood a little bit, bro.

I don't want to leave on that.

That's crazy.

He did that, not me.

He did do that.

That's supposed to be pop culture.

He's over there.

He had a stroke.

We let it go.

He's like, no, I want y'all to know.

I want you to know this.

What is this?

Well, we got new arrivals.

BBC billionaire.

We're not.

No, I'm not pimping this out.

The Billionaire Boys club.

Go to thspod.com, buy yourself some merch.

Rep the show for your family and friends and new listeners.

Dodgers rally from five runs down to defeat Yankees and win World Series.

Shout out to you, Mr.

Dave Mizucci.

That just came through right now, 9:03pm yeah, congrats, Ohtani.

That's how.

That's how you know we're doing this after hours.

Yeah, yeah.

I mean, now you know.

Now you know.

See, run.

That's how you end the show on a positive note.

You ungrateful son of a bitch.

They went.

They won the pennant.

Why do they call it the pennant?

I don't know.

I'm not Googling that M closest tab.

He's a fuck.

He's a fucking.

I'm not answering.

I'm just waiting for the day he starts ending the show on his own.

Click.

Yeah, you guys are done.

Bye.

Good night, everybody.

Bye.