[00:00:00] Scott W. Luton: Hey, good morning. Good afternoon. Good evening. Wherever you may be Scott Luton, Karin Bursa and special guest Mike Griswold with you here on Supply Chain Now, welcome to today's show, Mike. How are you doing, my friend?

[00:00:46] Mike Griswold: I'm doing well, thanks. Great to be, uh, talking with you again, Karin.

[00:00:49] Great to see you. Looking forward to today's, uh, time together.

[00:00:53] Scott W. Luton: We are too, and to get Mike and Karin Bursa in one show. Karin, we must be living, living well.

[00:01:00] Karin Bursa: I know, I'm starting the new year off right. I've got, uh, got Mike Griswold and Scott Lewton at the same time. This is good.

[00:01:08] Scott W. Luton: It is good. I got some great stuff to get into, but before I tease that a bit, I just gotta, I gotta talk about the weather.

[00:01:14] We're talking about this pre show and you know, Mike is in Idaho, Karin and I are in Metro Atlanta. And we've determined that it's 15, roughly 15 degrees colder in Atlanta than in Idaho here in January. My career makes no sense. Hey, that's okay. That's why folks talk about the weather and don't do anything about the weather.

[00:01:34] So, uh, but today folks back by popular demand, one of our longest running, the most popular series supply chain today and tomorrow with Mike Griswold from Gartner. Mike, of course serves as Vice President Analyst with Gartner. And as I mentioned, Tickled here today to have the one and only Karin Bursa join us too.

[00:01:53] Uh, it's a, it's a, a double truckload of value. Folks, we've got some big topics to get into. We're going to be reviewing the 2024 holiday shopping season as well as the current returns season that we're all in. Some may refer to that as returnuary. We're going to be taking a broader view of 2024 Global Supply Chain, some of those key takeaways, as well as a few 2025 predictions.

[00:02:17] Some of the usual suspects, as you might imagine. We're also going to be talking about the critical element for supply chain success. Yes, what's old is still new again, and that's talent. So stay tuned as we dive into all that and a whole bunch more, along with Mike and Karin. Okay, for starters, Mike and Karin.

[00:02:36] Today marks a special day. There'll be parades from coast to coast, maybe around the world. Today, January 22nd is National Hot Sauce Day. Yes, there's a day for that. It's a day for everything. So to celebrate, before I share a couple of my favorites, cause I am a well known, uh, fan of spicier stuff, not as much as I was 20 years ago.

[00:02:56] I've slowed down a bit for some reason, involuntarily, but I want to ask both of y'all, starting with you, Mike, either your favorite hot sauce or a favorite food that might be on the spicier side.

[00:03:07] Mike Griswold: not even 20 years ago, Scott, I was not, was not, and still am not a huge spicy food fan, but growing up in the Western New York area, I'm sure people will know where I'm going with this.

[00:03:19] Um, you know, chicken wings, buffalo wings. With the right hot sauce is probably my favorite, um, food on that is on the spicier side. So I'm not 1 of those folks that goes in for, like, the atomic or the nuclear where you basically start crying and your head starts sweating. But. You know, something a little bit, you know, medium to hot, I'm okay with.

[00:03:44] But it really is about, about the chicken wings. I'm not, uh, I think even if you looked in our refrigerator, I don't know that you would find any of the things you might be sharing with us, Scott, around those types of hot sauces, but a good buffalo wing with the right amount of sauce is The spicy go to for me.

[00:04:04] Scott W. Luton: I'm with you. And of course the legendary Anchor Bar in Buffalo, uh, where, uh, arguably is the hometown, where, uh, Buffalo chicken wings were created. And I'm kind of like you and Courtney, you may be too, but, I'm okay with a hot dog. Hot sauce on my chicken wings. It's about an extra, extra crispy chicken wing.

[00:04:24] Yes. I don't need any sauce. Don't need any sauce. Um, all right. So Karin, that's gonna be a tough one to top. I didn't even think about chicken wings. What about you Karin? Hot sauce or great spicy food or what?

[00:04:35] Karin Bursa: Yeah. I wasn't even thinking about Buffalo sauce. I do like Buffalo sauce on a lot of different things.

[00:04:40] Chicken among them. Um, my first thought, um, and I'm kind of a moderately spicy, um, Lover and, um, Mike, I, I don't want to sweat when I eat ever. So, but I do like hot sauce on my eggs. So I, uh, you know, I will grab some Texas Pete or any hot sauce that's available and I will sprinkle that very liberally on my eggs.

[00:05:09] Always have,

[00:05:11] Scott W. Luton: I'm with you. I am with you. I've got to have something tangy, if not hot, at least something tangy on eggs. So that's a delicious combination, Karin. And it's funny, Texas beat, leaning into the Texas brand, but it's made in North Carolina still, I think. Always has been, if I'm not mistaken.

[00:05:28] Um, all right. So I've got, so hot sauce is my thing. Folks, I didn't bring a bottle of Tabasco because I think everybody's seen the, the, iconic bottle of Tabasco because that's a good one. That's a stable one. That's always a go to almost no matter what food, but these other two, I've been kind of a Johnny come lately to in the last four or five years.

[00:05:47] One of them when I really want to be get some heat on and I don't mind sweating when I eat. It is this El Yucateca. Now folks, this can be found, it's now more broadly distributed. Walmart's always had it, it's now in Kroger's I find it now. Uh, and I tell you, it brings it and it's cheap and I tell you what, uh, be careful with it.

[00:06:09] So that is great, is one great one. And then, Karin, you and I both know Vicky White and she went to her homestead in Arizona and brought me back like a, a collection of hot sauces. And there in Arizona, it says Arizona Gunslinger, which is like, it's been made since 1985. They make all kinds of different brands and that's good.

[00:06:29] not as easy to get to, of course, unless you've got a convenient trip to Phoenix lined up, but that is a good and flavorable hot sauce too. So, uh, all right, we're going to have to come back now. I'm starving for chicken wings and maybe some eggs tonight. Interesting combination. Uh, we got a lot to get to here today though.

[00:06:47] So Mike and Karin, great to have you both. And I want to start. With some reflections on the most recent holiday shopping season for 2024. And I'll pop up this graphic here. So, uh, as reported here by RetailDiab, I want to dive into some of these holiday season data points. So stay with me here. Uh, so reporting by Salesforce indicates that holidays, uh, retail sales reached 282 billion in the U S alone in 2024, which is 4 percent more than 2023.

[00:07:19] Now globally, it reached 1. 2 trillion, which is about a 3 percent rise year over year. Now, you know, artificial intelligence was going to be involved in some way, shape or form it's a golden age, and there's a lot more to come. In fact, 19 percent of all online holiday orders, according to the same data, was influenced by AI or agents.

[00:07:42] But as you might expect, as good as interesting as all that is, there's also the of big bright cloud. We're in the season here of return you're wearing. Now, if I had coined that, I would have found a way that maybe to incorporate Ember in that too, because it really begins right out in the last week or so of December, right?

[00:08:05] This tidal wave of returns, it's, it's grown unfortunately, tremendously. For online purchases, the rate of returns rose by almost 30 percent to a staggering 122 billion globally last year. And once those final numbers come in, probably next few weeks, that might increase to 133 billion. Now, returns management, uh, places a operational and financial burden.

[00:08:31] Many, many other burdens on organizations. Especially supply chain and reverse logistics. And it doesn't help our sustainability objectives that everybody wants. According to Optoro, who plays in the returns and reverse logistics space in 2023 alone, get this, returns created over 8 billion pounds of landfill waste.

[00:08:54] So we can do a lot better and I'm sure we will, but Mike, I want to get your thoughts kind of on the whole first of what we saw during the holiday shopping season.

[00:09:02] Mike Griswold: Yeah. I mean, I, I think overall, Probably most retailers will be pretty pleased with how those numbers turned out on the sales side. I think we've had conversations in the past here, Scott, around, and Karin will, I think, recognize this.

[00:09:18] Retail supply chains historically have been built. To push stuff out. They were not designed to bring stuff back. Stores were designed, everything from their physical configuration to their operational practices inside were designed to sell stuff, not to take stuff back. And I think what, what has happened.

[00:09:40] is the consumers have now decided that I need retail supply chains to do both. I need you to sell me stuff and I need you to take my stuff back. And the ease at which we can buy things online and the ease at which, particularly when we look at the apparel segment of retail, where I can buy Three sizes of a shirt, knowing that I'm only going to keep one, the one that fits best.

[00:10:11] The other two are going back. I can buy three pair of shoes, right? Two of which are going to go back, Because we've made the buying side of this so much easier. And relatively painless for the shopper to send those two back, whether it's free returns, whether it's discounts, other things that I'm going to send back.

[00:10:30] We've made that process fairly easy and fairly painless for the consumer. Retailers are going to have to figure out this thing around the reverse supply chain. And they're going to have to figure it out, I think, Really, when it comes down to what do we do with the inventory? So, I bought this product online.

[00:10:50] I have my local Kohl's down the street and now I want to take some of it back. And the Kohl's down the street, you know, may or may not have had it sold in that store. So, there's the whole metrics around. You know, buying at one location, returning in another location that messes all the accounting up potentially, but it really is more physically the challenge of I now have all this stuff coming into a cold store.

[00:11:16] That was designed to send stuff out, not to not to reprocess it. So I think the secret sauce and one of the things that we started to talk about at Gartner in some of our retail metrics is around the efficiency of processing returns. Not from the standpoint of how quickly do we credit someone's credit card back?

[00:11:37] Cause that's pretty easy. It's how quickly can we get this merchandise back out on the sales floor? If in fact, it's still sellable, how do we discern what is just being returned? Cause I didn't like the color versus it's being returned because it has some defect that I now have to do something else with.

[00:11:53] So I think as we move forward, retailers are going to have to spend a lot more energy. Both kind of intellectual energy, physical energy, systemic energy on how at a store level do we get better at processing this, this product. I mean, I think I've seen some stats that returns. in a particular retailer are like their third or fourth biggest supplier.

[00:12:17] I mean, think about that, right? You, one of your largest suppliers is a bunch of stuff that people don't want anymore. And how do you get that through your supply chain? So I think good news from a, from a sales and volume perspective, I think there's a lot of work still to do for most retailers. Around the by product of the returns and how do we create some efficiencies when we get those, those products back?

[00:12:44] Scott W. Luton: Yeah, good stuff there, Mike. Uh, we can, we can have a six hour conversation, just, you know, do the tip of the iceberg on all things returns. Karim, what would you, uh, add your thoughts around holiday shopping season and, and even some of what Mike shared there, shared there.

[00:12:59] Karin Bursa: Yeah. So I, number one, my, my first thought is I would have expected the online sales.

[00:13:05] To have grown by more than the three or 4% that were represented, both national in the US and then globally. I would've thought it was gonna be higher than that. the second thing is, to Mike's point around, um, returns or inventory. There is still a huge challenge in retail where retailers plan their direct consumer inventory and buyers separately from what they're doing for their brick and mortar stores.

[00:13:33] And we still have a huge opportunity to bring those inventory pools together from the get go. Go. Um, some of those barriers are starting to come down, but for years and years, it's been this little kind of dirty backroom secret, if you will, because the retailers have run those lines of business separately and therefore run that inventory separately.

[00:13:55] So lots of opportunity to really leverage one, if we're going to say Omnichannel to market one Omnipool of inventory as well, which may streamline some of that returns process. As well, in the future. So I think there's still, you know, lots of opportunity to use those inventory dollars more effectively over time.

[00:14:19] But I will tell you the one thing that really impressed me in this article. So this, these are numbers that came from Salesforce and Salesforce had forecasted global sales of 1. 19 trillion. And the headline is. Global record of 1. 2 trillion. Now, that's, you know, that's pretty close from a forecast perspective.

[00:14:44] I mean, we are talking, you know, big dollars at that point, but that's a pretty good forecast for the online sales on a global basis. And they were also pretty close for the US component of that. They were a little bit I think their US or North America component of that, no, US component was, 277 billion against an actual 282 billion performance.

[00:15:08] But, I think we need to look at what Salesforce is doing and how they're forecasting those sales. There might be some interesting things we can bring over into other areas of the supply chain.

[00:15:17] Scott W. Luton: It might create some new products for Salesforce that are directly, uh, uh, applicable to a global supply chain, huh?

[00:15:23] and I would have known, Karin, of all folks, you were going to bring up the forecasting or the planning angle. I love our conversations. That always finds, always finds a way in. you know, a couple of things, uh, just a couple more things around the returns, two quick thoughts. So the notion of wardrobing.

[00:15:40] You know, there's lots of, I was just having a series of conversations with both retailers, as well as, returns management players, which is, is really blown up as a sector. And amongst, you know, we've heard about bracketing, bracketing forever, right? we, some folks have heard about wardrobe and where folks will buy a tuxedo or dress or something for an event, they'll wear it and then I'll ship it back.

[00:16:03] That's been around for a few years. That's a, that's a big driver. But on top of that. What's risen to the forefront is not just what some folks refer to as, um, friendly fraud is what one, one of our podcast guests kind of referred to it as kind of one off, you know, not meant to create a victim, uh, not saying it's right or wrong, but beyond that.

[00:16:24] A criminal enterprise that has been driven much more complexity, much bigger losses is really in many ways, creating much bigger sustained and growing losses for retailers out there. and it's praying and it's enabled by really lax returns policies for years. Now, retailers have been tightening that up.

[00:16:47] They've been tightening that up. But as we all know, for consumers, for many, you look at many reports out there, many surveys. One of the biggest drivers for where we purchase things is what their returns policy is. So it's, it's a debating, uh, you got headwinds come at it from different angles, but as a consumer, my, my last point here, Mike, if you want to add anything else, my, uh, my thought is while the burden is on supply chain forward, and of course, reverse logistics and returns management as consumers, as we all are.

[00:17:20] We can do better. We can do better and present, hopefully, a lesser problem for supply chains have to deal with retailers have to deal with any thoughts, Mike. I think you got that.

[00:17:30] Mike Griswold: Yeah, I think my last thought on this Scott is I think this is probably an opportunity amongst. I'm sure we'll talk a lot of opportunities where where things like AI can start to do some analysis around some of these customer transactions and some of these customer behaviors and start to identify.

[00:17:49] Bye. For the retailer, let's say, habitual returner, who is part of maybe a more organized effort to take money from retailers through a more organized, you know, kind of scheme. I think we've got now some science and some tools that can help the retailer. Because what you don't want to do is throw the baby out with the bathwater, right?

[00:18:13] And create such a complex returns process, trying to snare these organized activities that you're disenfranchising your main customer who doesn't have any of that intent or ill will. They just didn't like the way the shoes fit, right? So, I think, right, and I'm sure as I said we'll talk about today, right, there's this growing use cases, growing use cases for AI and Gen AI.

[00:18:41] And I think as we look at the general area of loss prevention, it strikes me that that's an area that really, to me, would be of great value deploying AI, looking at the data, discerning patterns, identifying abnormal behavior, and really focusing on that as a way to kind of try to limit these losses.

[00:19:04] Scott W. Luton: Well said.

[00:19:05] And Karin, uh, we can't let one of the points Mike is making there. We can't let the tail wag the dog, I guess. Uh, your final thought there, Karin and returns before we move on to, uh, Supply Chain 2024 and 2025.

[00:19:19] Karin Bursa: Yeah, I do think that we're going to see AI applied in a number of different areas for businesses, right?

[00:19:25] From product design, through supply chain, forecasting, and I think you mentioned in this article, really influencing buyers. I think at the same time, um, AI will be applied to pricing strategy. So as those returns come back and we look at what is saleable or un saleable, we can also look at pricing ranges with a little more precision as well.

[00:19:46] So I think that that is Really an easy lift opportunity that we may be able to harvest, or recoup some of that cost basis to at least offset, some of the return cost.

[00:20:01] Scott W. Luton: Yeah, good stuff there, Karin. and I completely agree as well. let's move to a broader, uh, opportunity to reflect and that is on the wide world of supply chain in 2024, right?

[00:20:14] Reflections and projections. And we'll also take a look at just what might lie ahead. So we're going to use this vehicle here. I think this is an interesting read. Uh, via Supply and Demand Chain Executive, where they look at key trends from supply chain 2024, those that had an impact, and they're planning a few irons in the fire for what may happen, what may play out in 2025.

[00:20:36] So, I'm going to cover this as you might expect in two halves. I'm going to start here before I get Mike and Karin's, uh, thoughts, from a 2024. Uh, what they kind of talk about here is a couple of things, continued supply chain diversification, right? As, as many companies are looking to mitigate the risk posed by that over reliance on China.

[00:20:57] Although I think many, uh, companies are finding that Much harder said are much harder done than said much harder said than done. I think, um, including the wall street journal just had a great article on the bike industry, uh, in the last few days. So folks, you should check that out. on a related note, organizations also sought to shorten supply chains.

[00:21:19] Karin, you and I spoke about this on a buzz, probably a couple of months back that includes a lot of different things, but also. Amongst them, nearshoring and reshoring operations, or reducing the steps or locations that products must flow through. ever so cautious approaches to inventory management in particular seem to be a hallmark throughout 2024 as a lot of supply chain leaders, at least a lot of folks I spoke to, seem to stay in a constant state of, Hey, when's that next shoe dropping?

[00:21:48] So it kind of led to some tentative inventory perspectives there. Now. That's 2024. That's not everything in the article. I kind of cherry pick there, uh, from a what's to come some of the usual suspects as anyone might imagine accelerated investment in AI and digital technology, I would argue it's going to be more measured.

[00:22:08] I was reading a great article from Dr. Yossi Sheffy that talked about how we can get through some of the frustration. Uh, you know, there's a lot of, there's just a lot of work to do. market, that organizations have been experiencing in their teams of finding the right application, uh, for AI, Um, more supply chain diversification.

[00:22:24] Yeah. What's old is new. Again, we're gonna have a lot more of that. And then there's a prediction that we might see more in sourcing, to better insulate enterprises from a variety of risks. A burgeoning, it seems like, global risks and disruption. They mentioned Apple as an example, which brought in some of its computer chip design and production in house, some of it, although the company still leverages external chip designers and makers, including TSMC in Taiwan, which some might say is a hotspot for potential disruption.

[00:22:53] In 2025, I would argue it's been a warm spot for a long time, and it seems like the temperature continues to rise. We hope we hope we can move in the opposite direction next year. Perhaps we'll see. But Mike, in light of all that, and it's tough to, as we all know, it's tough to encapsulate all the key takeaways from global supply chain, even in a Three day conversation, uh, or predictions.

[00:23:14] But what are some of your thoughts there looking back and looking ahead?

[00:23:18] Mike Griswold: Yeah, and I'll say this somewhat tongue in cheek, you know, maybe we, we can have some, um, you know, nearshoring with Greenland and with Canada based on some of the things that are, that have been going on recently, but in, in all seriousness, I think when I read that article, Scott, I, I came back to two of the conversations or two of the discussion topics that we've had here.

[00:23:41] And we'd love perspective on this as well, which is really around when I, when I distilled that article, it really landed to me in 2 areas. 1 around, you know, the ability in a more. Rapid and fluid manner assess the status of your network, everything from how you physically distributing, right?

[00:24:04] Your distribution centers out to your customers, whatever industry you're in, but also the broader landscape of where your suppliers are. And how that impacts the design, the cost, the responsiveness of your supply chain. The second area that kind of popped into my head as I was reading that is there's a lot in there kind of under the surface around risk management.

[00:24:24] So when you think about diversification, when you think about where you want to make stuff and who you want your trading partners to be. There is an element of risk management in that. And I would say, if people ask me, Mike, what do you, what would you think, uh, what do you think about the supply chain's overall performance in 2024?

[00:24:43] I would say I thought most supply chains performed pretty well, right? We just had the story, uh, where we talked about the increase in retail sales. That doesn't happen if your supply chains are kind of falling apart. Which we have seen in the past, right? Particularly in COVID, coming out of COVID, supply chain struggle with demand and supply.

[00:25:01] I think we did overall as a supply chain, a good job of managing demand and supply. I think we did a good job of managing risk. I think we've done a better job of trying to get ahead of risk. With some of the things, whether they're, you know, geopolitical, whether they're environmental, whatever they might be, I think we're doing better jobs around that.

[00:25:21] But it does to me continue to come back to this idea of do we have the capabilities both systemically and people right to understand the configuration of our network, understand how we might want to reconfigure and then do we have the ability to actually reconfigure it? What's the cost and service ramifications of that?

[00:25:43] And are we continually doing some due diligence around risk? And, and are we constantly asking ourselves the question, I mean,

[00:25:52] to me, it's, it's the design and the risk management piece that really jumped out to me as, Kind of what underpins 2024, or underpinned, I should say.

[00:26:02] Scott W. Luton: Good stuff there. Uh, Mike, Karin, what would you, uh, add? Your thoughts?

[00:26:06] Karin Bursa: Yeah, so, so many good topics and what both you and Mike have shared here.

[00:26:09] I do agree that, um, the network modeling or the network design aspects are really important. You know, we are still talking about supplier diversification, the nearshoring or reshoring. In part, as an outcome from COVID, but also in response to changing tariff policies and geopolitical pressures, as Mike mentioned, and I think that this has to become part of our normal routine.

[00:26:39] I don't think we can just do it at important inflection points when we open a new market or we buy a, a new company or divest part of our business. I think it needs to become part of the normal cadence of the planning process, even if it simply validates that the network we have today is the right network.

[00:27:00] I think that that is very important and this whole concept that we've talked about now for years of digital twins. Make that possible. And if it is difficult for your team to utilize that digital twin, we need to be working with the technology partners to make it better, to make it more fluid, to make it more usable, or to infuse some artificial intelligence around it to kind of elevate, if you will, how they engage.

[00:27:29] So I do agree that that supplier diversification, some of that Insourcing that you mentioned where large brands are buying some of their key componentry. these are important things and they're all about control number one and flexibility number two. and really improving that overall go to market strategy.

[00:27:50] So, I think that that's important. It underscores that physical changes take longer to actually implement. And that it is a moving target, meaning the geopolitical landscape continues to evolve during that time. So you may have put a plan in place a year ago. Now you're starting to execute it and geopolitical environment has changed or is at risk of changing.

[00:28:14] Um, and you have new factors now to take in, into consideration. So, I think that those aspects are really important, as we look at the inventory strategies and a future that is more flexible and more responsive or more resilient overall. Um, I, I do think that supply chains are continuing to become More resilient or more responsive in the marketplace as a whole, but we've got a long way to go.

[00:28:44] Lots of opportunity in front of us.

[00:28:47] Scott W. Luton: Well said. And I like, I like that, uh, optimistic, that practical optimistic last thought you had. going back to your point. You're talking about control, Karin. I think, um, I agree with you and I think one of the things that we have, whether you're in supply chain or in other parts of global business, is an opportunity to bring more things.

[00:29:04] And we always talk about focus on what's within your control. Well, there's, there's opportunities we can bring more into that, that we didn't have just a few years ago. Uh, and that's, that's, that's one, certainly one way we can, uh, control our own business. Destiny or Supply Chain Performance a little bit better.

[00:29:20] but going back to Supply Chain Performance, Mike, you're talking about last year is a pretty good year. Well, one of the things, one of the other key takeaways they cited in 2024 was, uh, something that of course has been around for a while.

[00:29:31] How Supply Chain Performance is more than ever baked right up into customer experience. And of course that's nothing new. It's not going, you know, it's not going in the other direction. Uh, that will be more and more and in 2025, we'll expect more of that as well. So folks check out this great read, from supply and demand chain executive that we were kind of using as a vehicle for this discussion, 2024, some key takeaways and share some great predictions for 2020.

[00:30:00] 5. Mike, I am going, since it's your show, I'm going to give you the final word here. Mike, your thoughts.

[00:30:07] Mike Griswold: Yeah, Karin had a great observation on the digital twin. I think that was a great point. And I think it speaks to the broader. One of the broader elements in that article was just this idea of digitization, and I think there is going to be, and there needs to be more of that.

[00:30:24] And I think for many folks, digitization and supply chain don't necessarily come together. In kind of that, that thought exercise, I think it's going to have to in 2025. We need to be able to create digital representations of our supply chain so we can create different scenarios to Karin's point much more quickly and much more accurately to a degree, both from a cost and service and a resilience perspective.

[00:30:51] We, uh, we did some research and we came up with this idea of, of kind of the surface area of a supply chain to your earlier comments, Scott. And the more companies can kind of reduce that surface area, the more resilient they can become. So it is about bringing more of, of the elements of your supply chain within your own control, reduce your dependencies and outside, outside factors.

[00:31:16] I think that will be something to keep an eye on in 2025 as well.

[00:31:20] Scott W. Luton: Excellent point. Uh, and Karin, to your last note, this is what I was trying to find. Uh, you were talking about the opportunities that abound, and I wholeheartedly agree with you. And we'll find them, right? Um, because Northstar is still Northstar, and to that end, I had a great conversation this morning with a really big global shipping organization, and one of the comments they made was, Trade will always prevail and that's a good thing.

[00:31:44] We can take heart in that because with trade and with that being one of the big North stars, we can solve a lot of problems, right? Solve a lot of problems. Um, okay. So now that we've kind of looked in the rear view mirror a little bit and we looked in our crystal balls a bit, which we've learned that Salesforce must have a great one, a crystal ball there, Karin.

[00:32:04] We don't have to borrow from their approach. Um, I want to talk about one thing that's timeless. One thing is timeless, right? And that is talent. Now we can get to this great read here. I want to wrap with this. So this never goes out of style nor importance, at least in my book. Great read here from Samuel Kim and Veena Bariyam.

[00:32:23] I think I said that right. Both with Gartner. This is from a couple months back where they challenged us not To de prioritize talent in 2025. So according to the Gartner CSCO, Chief Supply Chain Officer Community 2025 Outlook Survey, less than 40 percent of CSCOs now consider talent a top near term priority.

[00:32:46] And that's a significant drop from the 56 percent that prioritized talent in the short term the year prior in 2023. So in related research released again, this is back from say September 2024. Gartner identified three emerging workforce trends. I'm going to share these with you to get y'all's thoughts.

[00:33:05] Number one, decline of supply chain workplace promoters. So folks think net promoter score, right? And P. S. Less and less employees of supply chain organizations are willing to recommend their organizations, their employers. Now this might suggest, not in all cases, but many, dissatisfaction, burnout, and disengagement.

[00:33:26] So naturally, the second trend is very related. Employee turnover risks remain really high. And then number three, the third trend, greater employee respect drives talent retention. So, uh, in the research they presented here and go check it out, we'll include a link in the show notes, uh, I think it was top five factors.

[00:33:46] I think, uh, that drives talent attraction was compensation, location, work life balance. Vacation. All four of those, those are rare, fairly timeless. May be some changes here in recent years, but number five. What's respect? Respect, right? And how we can use that in the right way, meaningful way, intentional way in our recruiting, our talent management efforts.

[00:34:12] So, Mike, talent, we talk about it. I thought we'd talk about talent on every single 1 of these conversations. I welcome your thoughts.

[00:34:20] Mike Griswold: Yeah, this, this is a, an interesting piece of research. I mean, I, I have, my responsibilities at Gartner. I have a team of 4 people that look after supply chain talent. And I have 3 people that look at org design, which is less relevant to this particular conversation.

[00:34:35] But when I look at 2024, those 4 people did across the 4 of them, probably 1200. Uh, interactions with our clients on talent. That's like three a day. So, it is a, it continues to be a very important topic for our clients. I would say it continues to be an important topic for supply chain professionals in general.

[00:35:00] You know, it's, it's interesting. I think there's, there's 1 school of thought that could say, it's been a priority for a long time. People might feel like they've addressed it. It's been a priority for a long time. I think there's 1 school of thought that could say, it's been a priority for a long time.

[00:35:10] People might feel like they've addressed it. And now it's, it's not as a priority as say something like risk or, you know, AI as an example. My advice to vote though to folks that, that watch this is we, we still need to keep our eye on the talent ball. While it may not be a top three priority for chief supply chain officers, it still needs to be something that we talk about.

[00:35:37] And we figure out kind of how are we going to keep people engaged

[00:35:42] Scott W. Luton: over

[00:35:42] Mike Griswold: the course of their time at whatever organization you have. One of the things in that particular piece of research was around the employee value proposition. And it comes back to Scott, some of those things that you mentioned, which is if you look at some of the research.

[00:35:58] Yes, compensation is and will always be part of a, a, an associate's decision tree when it comes to staying, leaving, finding a new place of employment. But what our analysts are finding is that there are many other things, you mentioned a good, a good bunch of them, Scott, that are creeping into that decision tree and are being weighed almost as much as compensation.

[00:36:27] Things like work life balance, things like, where are you going to make me work? Right? Are you going to make me come into an office or can I stay and have some element of a remote work environment that I had during COVID? And, you know, for most people, most organizations were as productive, if not more productive than COVID, having remote workers.

[00:36:54] So, there's a lot. And then the other element to this too, I think is, We've tried it, Gartner. to help people not lose sight of frontline workers, right? People that drive trucks, people that work in distribution centers, and how can we as an organization create a similar employee value proposition for those types of folks?

[00:37:18] Because those are the ones that tend to be neglected because they can't really do remote work. They've got to come in Drive a truck. They've got to come in and work in a distribution center. But there's other things we can do around that employee value proposition. So there's, you know, the overarching message here is it's, it's becoming, you know, for CSCOs, maybe not as important in the past, but I would, I would encourage people to not read into this and say, it's no longer important.

[00:37:46] It is still very important. And if you, kind of take your eye off the ball when it comes to talent, that's one of those things that can be really hard to recover from. Just because it can take so long to bring someone into your organization and then become productive that, you know, if you've got.

[00:38:07] constant exodus out of your organization for lots of different reasons, and you're constantly trying to refill that up, right? Your organization will take a productivity hit for some window of time until those new folks can get up to speed. So talent will always be important. It may not always be a top 2 or 3 priority.

[00:38:28] But if people deprioritize talent, which I think is my other message, you cannot deprioritize talent as you think about what's important to your organization.

[00:38:38] Scott W. Luton: Well said, Mike. Hear, hear. Karin, your thoughts?

[00:38:42] Karin Bursa: Yeah, I totally agree with Mike's point of view. You can't deprioritize it. It shouldn't always be a top five priority.

[00:38:50] I think We may be seeing it a little lower in the list right now. And that is because there's more available talent in the marketplace. Uh, when we were in the midst of COVID, it was almost a land grab for talent, right? If you could speak supply chain, had some good experience, you, you know, could get a job pretty easily.

[00:39:10] Um, yeah, yeah. And

[00:39:11] Mike Griswold: I

[00:39:11] Karin Bursa: think, I think, you know, in the current, Employment market is still a good employment market, but it's, there's more bandwidth or more available talent than there was, say, two years ago, uh, to be considered. Uh, but the people aspect and the additional value that they bring to your organization when they know your organization, your suppliers, your production and distribution capabilities, um, you know, your, your go to market team or your sales team or key customers, all of that comes together.

[00:39:42] And. You can't automate that away. Um, you, you can give them more information to make better decisions faster, but you still need that human, creative aspect to help put some of those pieces together. So I, I do think that that should be part. of the priority list, what was interesting to me is I think on the list that you shared or that's in the summary article that respect as an attractor to the business was somewhere around number five, but when you looked at it as a factor of attrition, It was either number two or number three on the list.

[00:40:20] So not feeling respected for the value you bring to the organization, obviously, is a frequently cited reason people leave any role supply chain or otherwise. So, um, I, I guess my word of advice is, you know, in supply chain, we are problem solvers. by, by nature, right? And we get complex mapping of different process and movements of goods.

[00:40:48] Hey, just, you know, share a little love, give a little respect and a little appreciation for the, the hard work that's done on the front line and in the back office, for those contributions. And, um, I, I think, you know, that is in our control. That is something that management teams can do as a part of their, not only attraction strategy, but retention strategy as well.

[00:41:11] Mike Griswold: I think one of the things, just to build on Karin's point, I think we're also, At a kind of a point in time where I think CSCOs kind of think they know what they need to know, but probably don't know all they need to know. What I mean by that is, I think we've reached a point where a lot of CSCOs feel like they understand the ramifications, let's say of AI, just as one example.

[00:41:37] And they look across their organization and they feel pretty good about what they think they know now, and the resources that they have now, so that in their mind. The talent question is, is not as much of a priority as maybe something else. I think the caution I would off offer people is there's all, there's always kind of things that you, that you just don't know yet around ai.

[00:42:03] I'll use that as an example. And the challenge that we run into is if we feel good about where we are today with our understanding of AI and the resources we have in our organization. If we, if we decide I feel pretty good now, I'm going to look at something else, and then we wake up tomorrow and realize, holy crap, there's this other stuff.

[00:42:23] That I can do with AI that I don't have skill sets for internally. That's when you can find yourself really behind the eight ball. To your point, you know, Karin was an excellent point around the labor market, right? Because if you are behind the curve and recognizing the skills you need for AI and other people are ahead of you, those people are gone.

[00:42:43] Now you either are overpaying. Or taking, let's say, B plus type of resources, because everyone has already scarfed up the A resources. So, I caution people to, to kind of think that they've got, and again, we'll just use AI as an example, it could be planning, right? It could be inventory management. I caution people to not get too comfortable.

[00:43:07] With thinking they know all they need to know and that they have all the resources they're going to need to have, because if we've learned anything over the last couple of years, there's a lot of moving parts. There's a lot of acceleration in technology and an acceleration of required skill sets. That can take time to acquire.

[00:43:26] Karin Bursa: And the other thing on talent, um, is that something that we don't see on job descriptions all the time, but has become part of supply chain roles is the ability to influence others, right? To take the available data or insights and then influence other team members that are helping to make the decision.

[00:43:47] Um, and that is, It's a very important attribute in supply chain, but it's not something necessarily that can be learned in college. It is something that is learned through practice and through your confidence and understanding of both the business goals, um, the scenarios available, et cetera. So, um, that ability to influence others, right?

[00:44:10] You can have the right answer, but if you can't help other people agree or arrive at the fact that it's the right answer, you're not going to be effective.

[00:44:18] Karin, you make a fantastic point. When I think about a lot of the calls that my four talent analysts take, there is a significant number of calls. That are around those soft skills. The how do I collaborate? How do I communicate? How do I deal with change management? That's a huge topic for us, um, within the talent team.

[00:44:40] Mike Griswold: And it's all those things that really don't show up on a resume. Right? They don't really come out until you do things like ask, you know, behavior questions, or you ask people about, tell me a time when you had to, to your point, Karin, tell me a time when you had to influence someone with one of your ideas.

[00:44:59] And it's those softer skills that are becoming much more, I shouldn't say much more important, but they're becoming, Very important in creating well rounded supply chain people that can deal in these new environments like generative AI, some of the new things we're seeing in the planning and the inventory space.

[00:45:21] Scott W. Luton: You know, I was just going to say before you beat me to the punch there, Mike, uh, Karin, going back to your problem solving, which is, you know, core to who we are. Supply chain professionals. What we do day in day out. Right? We can do that much more effectively in many cases, if we can influence. Or if we can tell a better story, right?

[00:45:41] Or if we can explain the whiffom, right? What's in it for me in terms of all stakeholders around the table. So excellent call out there. And I would just add, I'm disappointed, Karin, cause there's one thing you hadn't mentioned yet. And that is your mantra that I thought you were going to get in as we were talking about supply chain.

[00:45:57] It's a great

[00:45:58] Karin Bursa: time to be in supply chain.

[00:46:00] Scott W. Luton: It is. It is. It

[00:46:02] Karin Bursa: is. It is. It's an exciting time. Um, and it's a great place to contribute in a variety of organizations. So whether you're in a physical supply chain role or a digital supply chain role, it is a great time to be in supply chain. You started, Scott, to talk about that connection.

[00:46:19] again.

[00:46:24] And I think that we're all drawing that closer and closer now, post COVID, than ever before. So even folks who are not in supply chain, like the three of us, day in and day out, will say things like, well, they've got a supply chain problem. And I'll say, well, tell me about that. What is that? You know?

[00:46:42] Scott W. Luton: And that's, that's one of the many reasons, many, many reasons why supply chain is, is a goal.

[00:46:47] It's a golden age. It's a great time to be in it. Because so many consumers that have never set foot in a manufacturing or warehouse site or ever sat down and had a conversation with a frontline worker, whatever, more and more, they know what supply chain is and what it does, perhaps more than any other point in time.

[00:47:05] In human history. So not, I mean, to be dramatic, but probably as a case, uh, anyway. All right. So we've got to wrap. We could be here. I've really enjoyed learning from you both as always. I've enjoyed a great conversation here. Great to see two of y'all get reconnected. Um, let's see here. I want to ask Mike, you, as we always do, what's coming up next at Gartner and of course, a corollary corollary to that, uh, how can folks connect with you, Mike?

[00:47:31] Mike Griswold: Yeah, email is the easiest. Mike. GriswoldGartner. com. We have our two big supply chain events in May. I think it's the first week in May is in Orlando. And then we're doing both of our events this year in the month of May. So, I think it's the third week of May we're in Barcelona. So, Everyone is all hands on deck with working through that content.

[00:47:53] Maybe Scott future show could be talking with our conference chair, maybe, and just give people a glimpse into what they can expect at our events. Talk a little bit about the theme and whatever, but, I somewhat say tongue in cheek. I mean, we, our marketing folks came up with this idea. It's the world's most important gathering of supply chain professionals.

[00:48:13] The more that I'm involved in that, the less subjective I become, frankly, when I see the number of people that come to our events, the insights that they get from our experts and from our guest speakers. I really think, I agree with Kern completely. It is a great time to be in the supply chain. And if you really want an understanding of the supply chain, I think coming to our event is, is a really good way to do it.

[00:48:39] I won't say it's the best way or the only way, but it's a really good way to wrap your head around what's going on in the supply chain.

[00:48:45] Scott W. Luton: I agree. Uh, I will be at Symposium in May as I was last year. And I got to say, and Karin, you've been there plenty of times too, a lot more than me. Um, it's home to the greatest Supply chain, a happy hour that I've ever seen in my life.

[00:49:01] Uh, that's a title that's undeniable. Um, Karin now, uh, beyond symposium, but I bet I have a hunch you'll be at again. Uh, of course you were at the great, uh, planning summit. In Denver, it's been so popular at Gartner. Um, what's one of the next trade shows you'll be at? And secondly, how can folks connect with you, Karin?

[00:49:22] Karin Bursa: Yeah, well, we'll start with the last thing. So connect with me on LinkedIn and, um, I look forward to kind of hearing your thoughts on these topics today or any variety of topics. Um, I will also be at Symposium in May and Mike, look forward to seeing you in 3D there. I was at the Gartner Supply Chain Planning Summit, which took place in December, Um, which has grown exponentially as well.

[00:49:46] So if planning is your focus or your forte, you know, Gartner has that event as well. So Mike mentioned the two largest events, which are referred to as Symposium, and now Gartner also has two supply chain planning events that just have a narrower scope of topics that are covered, um, but great representation from Gartner analysts, what they see in the future.

[00:50:10] And, um, and some of the leading, uh, solution and service providers as well. So one thing I took away from that, because I love a good stat, and, and you and I discussed this, uh, probably in December shortly after the event. Scott, but, but the keynote, the opening keynote, um, highlighted the need for intentional decision making at all levels of the supply chain while complexity continues to rise.

[00:50:41] And I had to write these percentages down just to make sure I got them correct. So, uh, their stats, the Gartner stats are that we are, our decisions today are about 71 percent more complex. Than in the past, 52 percent more frequent, and they need to be made 57 percent faster. So you wrap that in to your daily challenges, right?

[00:51:09] We've got more complex networks that we're making decisions across. We're making them more frequently, 52 percent more frequently. And we're being pushed to make them faster, 57 percent faster. You can't get there without technology. You've got to give your people the tools they need to get, get those insights and that decision intelligence so that they can help you satisfy customer needs, work with your suppliers, and really optimize your production and distribution capabilities.

[00:51:42] So, Scott, It is a great time to be in supply chain.

[00:51:46] Scott W. Luton: It is, but I gotta go back to the stats, uh, cause, to the Gartner family. I feel that in my bones, you know, I think all of our decisions, no matter where you are, but certainly in supply chain, uh, goodness gracious, becoming tougher and tougher and to your point, Karin, that's why we've got to lean into a better way, including technology and, uh, and changing how business is done for sure.

[00:52:08] Um, okay. I hate to leave it here. What a great conversation. I've got my proverbial 17 plus 1 pages of notes. It's been great. Mike Griswold, Vice President Analyst with Gartner. Always a pleasure. Mike, thanks for joining us here today.

[00:52:22] Thanks for having me. Looking forward to it, Karin. Always good to see you again.

[00:52:25] Outstanding. And Karin, to that point, it was great to see y'all two, the one two punch back at it. You know, I met Mike. Through Karin Bursa, what feels like, I don't know, it feels like 27 years ago these days, Karin, but it's probably just about 10 or 11 years ago.

[00:52:39] Uh, but either way, uh, Karin Bursa, one of our incredible co hosts here, uh, incredible supply chain dynamo. I really appreciate you being here with us, Karin.

[00:52:49] Karin Bursa: Oh, absolutely. Hey, it was an honor to introduce the two of you, and I'm so glad that you've had such a long and fruitful relationship out of it.

[00:52:57] Mike, it's great to see you and thanks for the opportunity just to kind of get caught up and talk about some of these trends today.

[00:53:05] Scott W. Luton: Hey, we're gonna do it again. We'll be back at it. Uh, well, throughout the year, this is just the first, uh, edition of this long running series here in 2025. So stay tuned for a whole bunch more, but more importantly, folks, to all y'all out there to join us across our global audience are the reason we do all of this.

[00:53:24] Um, we really appreciate all the feedback we get, all the tips, all the suggestions, keep it coming. But most importantly, I ask you this, tell you, Mike and Karin laid out a master class in many ways on a wide variety of topics, right? Opportunities, as we talked about, that you can take advantage of you and your organization.

[00:53:42] It's not about lip service. It's about deeds, not words, right? Lean into just one thing and put it into practice. Right. But with all that said, on behalf of the entire team here at Supply Chain Now, Scott Luton challenges you to do good. Get forward, be the change that's needed. And we'll see you next time, right back here at Supply Chain Now.

[00:53:58] Thanks everybody.