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Chris WaltonHello, everyone.
Chris WaltonI'm one of your co hosts for today's interview, Chris Walton.
Ann MazingaAnd I'm Ann Mazinga.
Chris WaltonAnd today we are bringing you something new.
Chris WaltonWe are debuting what we hope will be a new regular series featuring investor perspectives on the retail and consumer goods industries.
Chris WaltonAnd joining us for our inaugural episode is Carl Bracken, the CEO and founder of Ocampo Capital.
Chris WaltonCarl, thank you for joining us, and welcome to Omnitalk on what is a maiden voyage.
Carl BrackenYeah, thank you guys so much for having me.
Carl BrackenIt's.
Carl BrackenI feel so honored to be part of this, and it's amazing what you guys have built.
Carl BrackenSo thanks for having me.
Chris WaltonThank you, man.
Chris WaltonYeah, Carl and I.
Chris WaltonCarl, we go.
Chris WaltonWe go way back, you know?
Chris WaltonWe do.
Chris WaltonWe cut our teeth at Target right around the same time.
Chris WaltonStarted like, 2000.
Chris WaltonYou started 2004, right?
Chris Walton2004.
Chris Walton2000.
Chris WaltonAnd I was 2005, if I'm not mistaken.
Carl BrackenYeah, I started as an intern in 2003, but full time in 2004.
Carl BrackenYeah.
Carl BrackenYeah.
Ann MazingaMy gosh.
Carl BrackenYeah.
Carl BrackenYeah.
Carl BrackenIt was a long time ago.
Ann MazingaYour OG, bullseye people.
Ann MazingaThat's for sure.
Ann MazingaDon't even go there, Chris.
Ann MazingaIt doesn't help the situation.
Ann MazingaYou just gotta.
Ann MazingaIt was 2004.
Ann MazingaDon't do the math right.
Chris WaltonDo the math at home.
Ann MazingaWell, Carl, I mentioned this as we were just getting ready for the show, but we're really thrilled to have you on board as part of the Omni talk retail family.
Ann MazingaAnd I'd love for you to just kind of start by giving the audience a little bit of background on you and what Ocampo Capital sponsored specializes in, especially from a vc standpoint.
Carl BrackenYeah.
Carl BrackenYeah, for sure.
Carl BrackenSo I started my career, actually in finance at JPMorgan.
Carl BrackenWorked in the venture capital group in San Francisco during the.com bubble, which was crazy.
Carl BrackenIt was great until it wasn't.
Carl BrackenAnd I think one of the things I really learned from that was I needed operational experience.
Carl BrackenI was in there advising companies, tech companies on the products that I had no idea what I was talking about, and kind of realized that if I was going to be a good investor, I needed to have operational experience and get some skill.
Carl BrackenSo.
Carl BrackenSo that's what made me go back to business school and what led me to target.
Carl BrackenSo, yeah, I came to target as an intern in 2003.
Carl BrackenI was actually the first merch MBA intern they ever had.
Carl BrackenSo were you really?
Carl BrackenI was, yeah.
Carl BrackenSo it was.
Carl BrackenIt was.
Carl BrackenIt was kind of a guinea pig experience, but, uh, but it was awesome.
Carl BrackenUm, and lo and behold, you know, 15 years later, I was still there, and I loved my experience at target.
Carl BrackenIt gave me the opportunity kind of learn how to lead teams, how to manage large p and ls, how to develop big strategies, and then become an operational expert in a lot of different areas.
Carl BrackenSo, yeah, so my experience, as you guys know, was in merchandising and then inventory management and then supply chain and paying benefits.
Carl BrackenI have to tell you guys, last night, as I was preparing for this, I was watching the news and what comes on the long Sherman strike on tv, and I just had a total flashback and got the heebie jeebies about, like, having to lead how we got containers out of the west coast ports during the port slowdown, like, ten years ago or whenever.
Chris WaltonRight.
Chris WaltonWhen it was on the other side of the country, right?
Carl BrackenYes, yes, yes.
Carl BrackenOther side of the country now.
Carl BrackenYeah.
Carl BrackenSo I would be remiss if I didn't stop, stop for a second and give a shout out to all the inventory management folks out there and supply chain people that are dealing with this right now, because it's got to be horrifying.
Carl BrackenSo, anyway, so that was my target experience.
Carl BrackenAnd then after that, I went and was kind of had a brief stint as coo at a beauty brand incubator, and then I was chief merchant and chief supply chain officer at Guitar center.
Carl BrackenAnd then kind of decided to kind of bring it full circle to bring my retail and consumer background kind of together with my experience prior to that in venture capital.
Carl BrackenAnd so I decided to build a company that would help a bunch of young consumer brands be able to scale faster operationally and to be better funded and that kind of thing.
Carl BrackenAnd so I launched Ocampo Capital, and I mainly focused on businesses kind of in the consumable space, so early stage companies and beauty, pet, food and beverage, personal care categories like that.
Carl BrackenAnd my goal is to be able to help them operationally and invest and help them scale faster.
Chris WaltonClay so, Carl, what I take away from that bio is its interesting that you started in finance, left, and then now went back into investing.
Chris WaltonAnd knowing you as I do, I feel like investing has always been your thing.
Chris WaltonIt was always driving you.
Chris WaltonI can remember working with you and you were always talking about the share price, like, you know, of target and other companies.
Chris WaltonAnd so, so how, how much is this a passion for you?
Chris WaltonAnd what do you think led you to come back full circle to start this again?
Carl BrackenHonestly?
Carl BrackenYeah, you're right.
Carl BrackenIt has always been a passion for me.
Carl BrackenUm, and I find it really interesting.
Carl BrackenAnd I actually find the intersection between, like, consumer and, like, finance super fascinating.
Carl BrackenLike, to me, it's, it's so interesting.
Carl BrackenUm, you know, there's so many companies out there that need help.
Carl BrackenThere's so much opportunity, consumer, such a huge space, and yet there are so there are very few, you know, investors out there that also have, like, a consumer background.
Carl BrackenAnd so to me, that's, you know, I love sort of the intersection between those two different disciplines and, you know, trying to help create things new within it.
Ann MazingaI think that's what's so unique about you too, Carl.
Ann MazingaLike the fact that you just as, you know, as an investor, that you're like, I need more operator experience.
Ann MazingaI feel like that's a very rare thing to find because it's like you're, you know, you can only do so much looking at, you know, the same set of information that you're getting as an investment group that somebody else is getting as an investment group.
Ann MazingaIt's really that like marriage of the art and science of both of those things.
Ann MazingaAnd having operator experience really feels like the way to kind of get that, that edge.
Carl BrackenWell, I appreciate that.
Carl BrackenI will say, you know, from where I was standing at the time, I felt like such a pretender that I felt like I needed it.
Carl BrackenSo it wasn't like it was this grand scheme.
Carl BrackenIt just kind of worked out that way.
Carl BrackenBut yes, you went where the water.
Chris WaltonWas flowing, huh, Carl?
Chris WaltonAll right, that's great.
Chris WaltonAll right, well, let's, let's get in, let's get into why you're here, which is to get your perspectives on, on, on the retail industry and the consumer and consumerism at large, too, I think so.
Chris WaltonSo how would you sum up the state of the consumer and retail vc landscape right now?
Chris WaltonWhat are your thoughts on it from a high level?
Carl BrackenYeah, I hate to say it, but now is, honestly, we're coming off probably the toughest time in the past decade for companies looking to raise funds.
Carl BrackenIt's really tough.
Carl BrackenAnd there's several reasons for this.
Carl BrackenOne is so many venture investors have gotten kind of enamored with artificial intelligence that they are investing in that precluding any other kind of area of investment.
Carl BrackenThat is for sure a thing.
Carl BrackenAnd it is crowding out consumer investment.
Carl BrackenSecondly, I'd say is since the IPO market has been largely closed for the past few years, venture funds that have been around for a while can't get liquidity events to be able to reinvest in other new businesses.
Carl BrackenAnd they can't raise new funds because of that.
Carl BrackenIt's frozen the market for early stage investing for a lot of venture funds out there.
Carl BrackenThen the other thing id say is when interest rates started to rise, that put a cap for sure and slowed down demand in venture investment in total.
Carl BrackenNow let me now talk about consumer venture investment.
Carl BrackenIts actually tougher.
Carl BrackenAnd unfortunately, that was just the standard.
Carl BrackenThat was just the standard base.
Chris WaltonCasey, how were to double click even more.
Carl BrackenYeah, yeah.
Carl BrackenSo when you look at consumer venture capital, its even worse.
Carl BrackenAnd the reason why is because a lot of venture firms got burned over the past few years investing in things like DTC, only businesses, which sounded great because the margins were great but couldn't scale.
Carl BrackenOr secondly, like Amazon aggregators, there are a lot of Amazon aggregators out there that have gone by the wayside.
Carl BrackenAnd then also even like social influencer brands, social influencer brands are really hit or miss.
Carl BrackenAnd so if you pick the right one, it can be great.
Carl BrackenBut many kind of got burned on picking the wrong one.
Carl BrackenI would say that's sort of the negative kind of case on where we currently are from an investment standpoint.
Carl BrackenThat said, venture funds that are focused on consumer and still focused on consumer, it's a really good time to be putting money to work.
Carl BrackenThere's still over 30,000 consumer companies being founded each year.
Carl BrackenSo there's tons of companies being founded.
Carl BrackenAnd there's a lot of great companies out there that are having a hard time getting, getting funding.
Carl BrackenAnd then putting aside all that nonsense and everything else, there are some consumer businesses out there right now that are raising funds that are going to be home run successes.
Carl BrackenAnd if you look back through history, many of the biggest and best consumer brands were actually founded during major economic upheaval time.
Carl BrackenSo look at Apple, for instance.
Carl BrackenLook at Procter and Gamble.
Carl BrackenThere's so many that fit that bill.
Carl BrackenAnd I think this could be another of those times where these companies are being stressed in a tough fundraising environment, but they're going to come out way, way stronger.
Ann MazingaWell, Carl, yeah, I mean, you got me thinking too.
Ann MazingaLike while brands are having to work harder to get funding, it's not just as simple as like I got this great idea, we got this influencer on board.
Ann MazingaGive me the cash.
Ann MazingaLike how is that actually helping these companies, like, better prepare to go out and get funding in a way that maybe they weren't, you know, even five years ago?
Carl BrackenI think they're being forced to go slow, to go fast, honestly.
Carl BrackenAnd I think that's actually very, a very good thing.
Carl BrackenIt's forcing them to like make sure that they have their foundation in order before they start building the building on top of it.
Carl BrackenAnd it really ensures that they have a really good thesis and a really sound business model before they go out and try to raise funding because it's just harder to get funding.
Carl BrackenSo if they are going out, they're likely going to withstand the heat a lot more than they would have otherwise.
Ann MazingaThat makes sense.
Chris WaltonCarl, I want to ask you too.
Chris WaltonYou mentioned the DTC business, the Amazon aggregators.
Chris WaltonI can remember Ann and I sitting here having discussions about like this felt, you mentioned the late nineties before the DTC rise.
Chris WaltonFelt a little bit like the late nineties to us as we were sitting here because we're like, you know, you're hearing things like, oh, there's this brand tax that we don't, you know, that the companies are having to pay and, and therefore we can figure out how to go cheaper.
Chris WaltonBut yet you're forgetting all the supply chain economics to go with going DTC.
Chris WaltonSo, like, is your business model really that strong?
Chris WaltonLike what are the lessons learned, you know, from, from the aggregators, from the DTC businesses, you know, over these last few years?
Chris WaltonI mean, is it as simple as just like we should just all be going slow to go fast or is there more to it?
Carl BrackenI think there's more to it.
Carl BrackenBut I would say that, you know, a couple of things.
Carl BrackenOne is, you're right, it is so similar to e commerce.
Carl BrackenYou know, and with, with e commerce, everyone knew e commerce was going to be big and that there was a huge opportunity there.
Carl BrackenBut, you know, I think the same thing with, with DTC brands.
Carl BrackenI think DTC brands, it's an interesting model, but the pendulum swings so slowly in retail and you're talking about such a huge industry that to think that all of a sudden overnight everyone's going to go only to e commerce and that all retailers are going to go away.
Carl BrackenOr on the other hand, with DTC, that you're going to be able to disintermediate every retailer and everyone's going to buy product on your own website.
Carl BrackenThey are way, way overextending the slowness with which, um, that's a good point.
Carl BrackenThese transitions occur.
Carl BrackenThe other thing I would say that people don't really understand is, you know, if you have a product and it is on shelf in, in major retailers, that's a billboard.
Carl BrackenThat is a, like a credibility driver for you.
Carl BrackenAnd that's a real way to like, establish yourself.
Carl BrackenWhereas, you know, if you have a website, you've put up, you have your brand on your own website, you know, what's to drive demand?
Carl BrackenLike, how do people know that you're good, you know, and that's, I think, what, it's all on you and then it becomes a huge marketing play.
Carl BrackenIt becomes a huge, like, what's your roas know, like, how are you, you know, trying to optimize the algorithm and that, that isn't exactly a way to build a great long standing business.
Carl BrackenIt's a good way to like maybe drive short term revenue growth.
Carl BrackenBut, you know, if you really want to drive a business, like, you got to establish a business and establish a brand and establish all these things.
Carl BrackenAnd retail does help a lot with that.
Carl BrackenSo I think there's, it's multifaceted, but I think the pendulum swings slowly and, you know, to get out over your skis with any trend, there will always be kind of a retrenchment.
Ann MazingaYeah.
Ann MazingaCarl, I'd love for you to dive a little bit deeper.
Ann MazingaNow that we have these consumer brands that are receiving funding that have gone slow, to go fast.
Ann MazingaCan you explain a little bit what they're doing right and what that process for going out and raising money looks like?
Carl BrackenYeah, I think the first piece, Anne, is exactly what we just talked about as far as, like, get your foundation in order, like, have your business really locked down, you know, understand who your market is, understand, you know, how you plan on growing, understand what your long term path is as a company or what you want it to be.
Carl BrackenKnowing that things always change.
Carl BrackenBut, you know, understanding that, I think, is really key.
Carl BrackenI think once you know that the second thing that successful companies realize is going out and fundraising takes time.
Carl BrackenLike, money does not fall out of trees right now.
Carl BrackenAnd so, you know, because of that, you know, you have to take kind of the long game in, in fundraising.
Carl BrackenAnd that means you're going to be talking to a lot of venture capitalists, not all are going to say yes.
Carl BrackenIn fact, the majority will definitely say no and then also recognize that due diligence takes a lot of time.
Carl BrackenSo from putting my venture capital hat on, if Im investing in a company, I want to know everything I possibly can know about this company because Im going to be investing in it for seven to ten years.
Carl BrackenAnd I would say this is one of the biggest.
Carl BrackenYeah, it is.
Carl BrackenAnd its one of the biggest differences from when I was working as a merchant is when you're a merchant, you're like, okay, this is a great product.
Carl BrackenIt could do well in my assortment over the next six months or twelve months or 18 months.
Carl BrackenAnd that's all you cared about.
Carl BrackenYou didn't think about, is this business going to be viable ten years from now?
Carl BrackenWhereas as an investor, that is the only thing that matters.
Carl BrackenAnd so you have to be able to put out this sort of near term noise of what's the next hot whatever for the next six months.
Carl BrackenAnd you have to really think about what's the long term sort of prognosis and health for this business.
Carl BrackenAnd so that is part of why it's such a slow process for fundraising.
Carl BrackenBut early stage consumer businesses, I think, tend to underestimate how much time it takes.
Carl BrackenAnd so you got to get that down.
Carl BrackenAnd then I think the other piece I would recommend to any young consumer business is make sure you know who you're taking money from and make sure that the person, venture fund or whatever that you're partnering with is someone that you really believe in and someone that can really help you.
Carl BrackenBecause most of the time they're just like, we need money.
Carl BrackenLike, who can give us money?
Carl BrackenAnd that, okay, that's great, but you know, that, that, it's like, I think there's Adam Sandler movie where he's like, you know, I love money.
Carl BrackenYou have money, you know?
Carl BrackenRight, okay.
Chris WaltonYou know, that's like prostituted themselves for money basically.
Chris WaltonYeah, that's kind of what you're saying.
Carl BrackenYeah, kind of, yeah.
Carl BrackenAnd it's just not, you know, not good enough.
Carl BrackenLike you really need to have a sense for, you know, why are you raising the money?
Carl BrackenAre you raising it from someone who's really gonna be able to help you?
Carl BrackenAnd what does that look like?
Carl BrackenAnd I think the third thing that companies really need to think about is they have to have answers to all the key questions with things like how much working capital do they need for the inventory they're looking to build?
Carl BrackenDo they really know that?
Carl BrackenHow fast are they going to scale their distribution?
Carl BrackenWhat is their marketing plan?
Carl BrackenWhen are they going to have to expand their product line?
Carl BrackenAnd how confident are they in their forecast?
Carl BrackenThat's a huge thing.
Carl BrackenAnd all of that takes money.
Carl BrackenSo if you have really good forecast accuracy, you're going to need way less money, have way less money to put in inventory than if your forecast error is 75% or 100%, which, as we know from our time working in inventory management at target is quite often.
Chris WaltonYeah, it's probably more often than not that bad.
Chris WaltonRight?
Chris WaltonLike when you're talking about early stage consumer companies, I got to think, yeah.
Carl BrackenOh, for sure.
Carl BrackenYeah.
Chris WaltonThere's always something in the wind and see what.
Chris WaltonWhich way the wind blows.
Carl BrackenYeah, yeah, exactly, exactly.
Carl BrackenSo, I mean, all those things come into play, and I think the good early stage companies are thinking through all those things.
Chris WaltonAll right, Carl, so let's swing this back around to the retail side of things.
Chris WaltonSo you've already established that there's less money going around.
Chris WaltonThere's still a lot of good consumer startups out there.
Chris WaltonBut what does it imply for retailers, on the one hand, who are dealing with the brands that are getting funded, but then vice versa for the brands that are trying to sell into those retailers?
Chris WaltonHow should each side think about things as they're sitting across the negotiating table with one another?
Chris WaltonBecause the incentives have to align for there to be success.
Chris WaltonRight?
Carl BrackenYou are totally right.
Carl BrackenI mean, that's a really great question.
Carl BrackenOne of the things, one of the roles I had a target was on the negotiations team, and we used to talk all the time about empathizing with the other side.
Carl BrackenAnd I think that is like, it's a skill, but it's also an art.
Carl BrackenAnd it's an absolute requirement with early stage businesses if you're going to be a success as a retailer, bringing them.
Chris WaltonIn, we hear all the time about every retailer is talking about trying to keep their startup brands, give them more space on the shelf.
Carl BrackenAbsolutely.
Carl BrackenAnd I can understand why they're saying that that's a good thing.
Carl BrackenBut at the same time, if you're going into these negotiations and you're saying, give me 90 days dating in order for you to get on my shelf for an early stage consumer business, I mean, that could be the death knell for them.
Carl BrackenThey are running cash to cash.
Carl BrackenTheir goal is to get money back in the coffers as fast as they can so they can produce inventory.
Carl BrackenAnd I actually heard about that recently from a major retailer.
Carl BrackenThere was a buyer that was demanding 90 days dating from startups that were selling into their assortment.
Carl BrackenThat is just insane to me.
Carl BrackenSo there's things like that where you really have to empathize with what are the wants and needs of the other side of the table.
Carl BrackenAnd it goes both ways.
Carl BrackenI also think retailers tend to think that if they give a startup company a full store rollout, that's a win.
Carl BrackenWell, and I think the companies themselves probably think that's a win until they leave and two months later they realize there's no way they can produce in time for that.
Carl BrackenAnd then it's a huge loss.
Carl BrackenAnd so I think the companies have to be responsible enough to know what can they actually take on, how much is too much to bite off and how do they kind of dial it in so that they can be as effective as they can be to make the retailer happy and vice versa.
Carl BrackenSo I think it's really something that both the retailers and the startup companies are in the early stage.
Carl BrackenConsumer companies have to keep front and center.
Carl BrackenIt's just know what the other side wants and needs.
Carl BrackenAnd how do you find a point of commonality in between that'll be a win win.
Chris WaltonCarl, how do you recommend brands grow with large national scale retailers?
Chris WaltonDo you recommend that they take a regional approach?
Chris WaltonApproach to it?
Chris WaltonDo they have to think about where their supply network is the strongest and grow out from there?
Chris WaltonLike they open up the covers to all that?
Chris WaltonWhat's your take on that?
Carl BrackenYeah, I mean, and you guys know a lot more than I do about how it is, how it manifests itself across different retailers.
Carl BrackenBut I would, I mean, what I advise the companies I invest in is it's good to start on Amazon, it's good to start DTC.
Carl BrackenThat's a good place to like take a first step.
Carl BrackenThen your second step should be either in a regional portion of a major retailer or a smaller independent retailer or some sort of a small chain so that you can start to get up to speed and learn about that forecast error, learn what the product market fit is, learn what the demand is for the products before you launch.
Carl BrackenIn all Walmart stores.
Carl BrackenFor instance, to go from, I know of some companies have gone from, you know, selling on Amazon $2 million a year to full Walmart sets.
Carl BrackenThat's a big stretch.
Carl BrackenAnd to be able to make that jump is hard to do.
Carl BrackenSo you have to be able to insulate yourself and have enough data points so that when you do get into get that big Walmart purchase order, you're ready to rock.
Carl BrackenAnd so that's really, really key.
Ann MazingaCarl, I'm curious how you think about some of these smaller scale rollouts.
Ann MazingaLike, I'm thinking of Target.
Ann MazingaLike, we're going to roll you out in 250 stores and then see how that goes.
Ann MazingaLike, have you, do you have any advice or have you seen successes or failures on either side?
Ann MazingaBecause that's, that's kind of your one big shot.
Ann MazingaAnd if you don't pay it off in the 250 stores, there's no way you're going to go chain wide.
Ann MazingaWhat do you, what do you recommend to some of your clients or some of the early stage consumer brands that are, that are, you know, maybe going from that regional player now into a smaller subset of Target or Walmart stores?
Carl BrackenYeah, I think, honestly, I would say it's a blessing in disguise to a lot of these early stage consumer brands that think like, oh, we only got 250 stores.
Carl BrackenNo, no, no.
Carl BrackenActually 250 stores is great because you're going to either succeed in 250 stores and get rolled out to more or you're going to fail.
Carl BrackenWell, if you were put in 1700 stores or 2000 stores and you failed to, that's just a colossal disaster, you know, and so better to start.
Carl BrackenYou know, I, the way I kind of liken it is to baseball, which is like, you know, better to like, have your slump, your batting slump when you're playing in single a versus, like, going straight to the major leagues and under the bright lights, having a major batting slump, better to do it, you know, down in the minors, get your sea legs and then be able to move up kind of through the ranks.
Carl BrackenI think that's actually a good thing.
Ann MazingaYeah.
Chris WaltonWell, the other point I bring up, too, from the standpoint of the entrepreneur, having an, and I live, live the entrepreneurial life now for eight years, is there's a whole lot of collateral damage that comes, you know, at you from a family standpoint, a personal standpoint, if you take on too big of a challenge too quickly as well.
Chris WaltonSo that's something to also point out.
Carl BrackenAmen.
Carl BrackenYeah, that's, that's not in the financials, but that's, that's totally true.
Carl BrackenRight?
Chris WaltonYeah.
Chris WaltonIt's a good thing to keep in mind, though, if you're, if you got your eye on that brass ring that is the full chain rollout before you're ready.
Carl BrackenAbsolutely.
Carl BrackenYeah.
Ann MazingaWell, Carl, let's shift gears a little bit and talk about trends.
Ann MazingaI'm curious to get your perspective.
Ann MazingaYou're deep in this.
Ann MazingaWhat trends are you seeing now and what trends are kind of dying off.
Carl BrackenYeah.
Carl BrackenSo there's I would say a few big, big trends and then there's a bunch of sort of like flavor of the month club stuff.
Carl BrackenUm, I'm going to steer clear of the favorite flavor of the month club stuff because, you know, I could tell you product trends that are hot, they've been hot the past six months or the past three months or whatever.
Carl BrackenThat scares me, honestly.
Carl BrackenI steer clear of those most likely because they usually don't have staying cover, you know, and so it's like you.
Ann MazingaWere just saying, like, what's going to be here in ten years?
Ann MazingaAnd bingo.
Carl BrackenYeah, that's exactly right.
Carl BrackenSo talking more about the big trends, I already mentioned AI.
Carl BrackenThat's a big trend for investing.
Carl BrackenIt's a big trend for investing with genai companies, obviously, and the supporting functions for those.
Carl BrackenBut then there's also tons of consumer businesses that are AI driven that are coming out right now.
Carl BrackenI've seen a bunch recently, and as we talked about earlier, it is like the.com bubble where everyone knows that AI is going to be huge.
Carl BrackenI mean, everybody knows it and everyone is investing based on that.
Carl BrackenIs so many companies that have sort of incomplete business models are getting funded to like a pretty high valuation right now that, you know, that these guys aren't going to be successful.
Carl BrackenI mean, for every, you know, Amazon, there was pets.com, you know, there for every, you know, and there was all, I mean, early on pets.com and Amazon, it was like Amazon was for books, pets.com was for pets.
Carl BrackenAnd they were like the same thing, you know, and to see how they're, you know, there's been such a huge divergence in their paths.
Carl BrackenIt's going to be the same thing with all these AI companies.
Carl BrackenThere's going to be a few that are going to be massively huge and really successful.
Carl BrackenAnd there's going to be a bunch that are going to go by the wayside and picking the winners is a little hard to tell right now.
Carl BrackenAnyway.
Carl BrackenNot surprisingly, I steer clear of things that are pure AI platforms because you're closing your eyes and throwing a dart at dartboard, then there's going to be a lot of fallout.
Carl BrackenThe thing I do think about for every business I look to invest in is how will AI help this business or how will AI disintermediate it or kill it?
Carl BrackenYou have to think about that.
Carl BrackenFor any kind of platform business, any kind of a service business, it matters a lot.
Carl BrackenMaybe a little less so for product businesses, but it impacts them too.
Carl BrackenThats a big trend that I think you can either invest in directly or indirectly and how it impacts the businesses youre investing in.
Chris WaltonSo Carl, so basically youre saying you keep AI top of mind, but youre looking at it more from the perspective of is the company im going to invest in going to get disrupted by an AI technology play that maybe I invest in or maybe I dont, but thats what youre keeping an eye on.
Carl BrackenExactly.
Carl BrackenYeah, thats really huge.
Carl BrackenAnd so probably not surprisingly, I tend to focus more on real differentiated products.
Carl BrackenAnd so things that can be sold into retail, things that people are going to demand, things that are tangible and they tend to have a little bit more, I guess, defensibility against AI encroachment.
Carl BrackenSo that's one piece.
Carl BrackenThe things I look at with those is the market demand growing for these kinds of products and also are they really differentiated?
Carl BrackenThere's so many companies out there that I've seen that are me too in product categories that again, it's the same thing.
Carl BrackenYou're closing your eyes and throwing a dart at a dartboard.
Carl BrackenBut if you have real differentiation, like if you have a cornered resource or if you have intellectual property protection or something like that, patents or whatever, that's a way to stay differentiated and it's a way to create a mode that'll last longer.
Carl BrackenAnd so that's an area to focus on for sure.
Carl BrackenThe other thing that I definitely look at is sort of a diversified channel strategy.
Carl BrackenSo I don't like the idea of businesses that are only going to be DTC for the reasons we talked about already.
Carl BrackenAnd also I can't add as much value there.
Carl BrackenI mean, my experience has been in retail and consumer less on the DTC side.
Carl BrackenBut I also think that every company that's getting invested in right now and consumer, most are actually DTC first brands or small store brands are going to be omnichannel.
Carl BrackenThat is really where I think people want to be because the thought is omnichannel.
Carl BrackenYou have a diversified base of revenue and you just have a greater likelihood of success.
Carl BrackenSo those are things that I think are growing as far as what is decelerating Amazon aggregators, we talked about that already a bit.
Carl BrackenI think social influencer brands are still around, but I think it needs to start with product, not start with a social influencer looking for a product.
Carl BrackenOne of the things I talk about is for social influencers or for celebrities that are looking to find a product.
Carl BrackenIt's like rocket fuel looking for a rocket.
Carl BrackenAnd oftentimes they'll just take the rocket fuel and pour it into a half built rocket.
Carl BrackenWell, that doesn't end well.
Carl BrackenAnd so I think there's a lot of that where it's like, oh, we raise money on a huge valuation because we have name x celebrity that is back in the company.
Carl BrackenGreat.
Carl BrackenWell, when you go to raise your next round and revenue hasn't followed, what are you doing then?
Carl BrackenThat is problematic.
Carl BrackenSorry.
Carl BrackenIt's a long answer to a short question, but hopefully that gives you a little insight.
Chris WaltonNo, it gives us a lot to think about.
Chris WaltonSo I'm curious.
Chris WaltonSo I want to make sure too.
Chris WaltonSo basically, so you said if a founder comes to you, because this is what we heard a lot I can remember, I mean, I can remember some of the conversations we had in this space like four or five years ago, Ann, where.
Chris WaltonSo if a founder comes to you and says, so, ive got this great DCC brand I have no interest in ever selling to wholesale.
Chris WaltonI want to keep control of my brand.
Chris WaltonThats a big red flag for you as an investor, Jeff.
Carl BrackenFor me it is.
Carl BrackenIt isnt for others, but for me it is.
Carl BrackenIt is for me for a couple reasons.
Carl BrackenOne is the lack of diversification.
Carl BrackenYou have risk there.
Carl BrackenAnd then secondly, how can I help?
Carl BrackenI mean, I mentioned at the beginning, sort of my whole piece is venture investing, but also helping them operationally.
Carl BrackenAnd it's harder for me to help a DTC brand that's going alone on their website operationally.
Ann MazingaCarl, that's funny, because Chris and I are on the same wavelength.
Ann MazingaI was wondering, especially given your experience across multiple categories, especially beauty, are there categories that you do think are more successful or likely to have more success still maintaining just d two c sales relationships with their consumers versus a more diversified approach?
Carl BrackenThat's a good question, yes.
Carl BrackenI mean, I do think that there are certain categories that have a greater likelihood of staying going alone on DTC.
Carl BrackenI would say high margin, small package size brands where they can reinvest the margin into marketing.
Carl BrackenThose are businesses that are likely to be more successful DTC only.
Carl BrackenSo you take beauty products that are easy to ship, that have high margins, and they can go out and make a huge deal on marketing via social media or whatever, TikTok shop, whatever, to get their word out there.
Carl BrackenThey're going to scale a lot faster DTC and it'll be easier for them to be successful without getting into brick and mortar retail, no question.
Carl BrackenNow, I don't invest in the space, but furniture that would not be good.
Chris WaltonDown jackets come to mind.
Chris WaltonAnd honestly, somebody tried that.
Carl BrackenSo it's totally gallons of milk.
Carl BrackenYou know, like, when was the last time you saw a DTC gallons to milk retailer?
Carl BrackenLike, you know, very expensive to ship.
Carl BrackenYou know, low margins.
Carl BrackenLike that would be bad.
Chris WaltonPerishable?
Chris WaltonYes.
Carl BrackenAll right.
Carl BrackenPerishable.
Chris WaltonLet's, let's get you out here on this.
Chris WaltonThis is the question I think we did.
Chris WaltonAnn and I have been waiting to ask you as we kind of build up to it here.
Chris WaltonBut, uh, where do you.
Chris WaltonSo with all that said, where do you think the opportunities actually lie in the marketplace?
Carl BrackenYeah, um, I will tell you the biggest.
Carl BrackenI have two things that I'm most focused on right now.
Carl BrackenUm, and, and these are just sort of conceptual things that I'll get into specific, you know, more specifics.
Carl BrackenBut, um, first of all, and this is probably obvious, but really, really good leadership teams like that, that is a requirement.
Carl BrackenUm, and so check.
Carl BrackenYou got to have that box checked.
Carl BrackenAnd the reason why that matters so much is your business is going to have to pivot many, many, many times.
Carl BrackenAnd if you have, like, a decent business with an awesome leader, they will know how to pivot and make the business better.
Carl BrackenIf you have what seems like a pretty good business and not a very good leader, when the business has to pivot, you're in trouble.
Carl BrackenSo that, you know, I would say leadership matters a lot.
Carl BrackenThe second thing that matters a lot to me is differentiated IP.
Carl BrackenAnd I know I said that already, but just to like, underscore it, that is really, really important to me.
Carl BrackenAnd the reason why it is, is because it gives you differentiation and defensibility in a space consumer where theres very little differentiation, theres very little defensibility.
Carl BrackenI mean, think about how many food companies out there that have like, the hottest thing theyre going to get.
Carl BrackenThey have a very high likelihood of getting disrupted unless they build a really strong foundation and grow fast really quickly, you know, liquid death.
Carl BrackenI mean, they're, they're killing it.
Carl BrackenYou know, they're.
Carl BrackenBut it's because their branding is so great, you know, and so that's how they've been able to, like, create a bit of a mode and scale.
Carl BrackenBut from.
Carl BrackenYeah, but for me, it's, it's, I tend to think, like, differentiated IP is a really good mode.
Carl BrackenSo I look at that a lot.
Carl BrackenSo, you know, just to give you an example of some of the companies I invested in already, they kind of fit those bills.
Carl BrackenLike, so the first one is a yemenite hair care company called Small Wonder, actually founded by a target alum.
Carl BrackenAnd they actually own IP on water free salon, professional, salon grade shampoo and conditioner.
Carl BrackenAnd so the product itself is, the actual product is a powder that is patented as patent protection on it, but they also have a package.
Carl BrackenThey've created the dispensing mechanism that is also patented.
Carl BrackenAnd so you can put it in the shower, and the powder doesn't get wet until you want it to get wet and want to activate it.
Carl BrackenAnd so it's a really cool company.
Carl BrackenAnd they have patent protection from a number of different angles there.
Carl BrackenSo that's one.
Carl BrackenAnother one is, one of the first companies I invested in is called shameless pets.
Carl BrackenIt's a dog treat company made with upcycled ingredients.
Carl BrackenSo they've created a supply chain for upcycled ingredients.
Carl BrackenSo upcycled ingredients are things that would be food waste that are kind of reconstituted into food ingredients that can be eaten.
Carl BrackenAnd so it's better for the environment.
Carl BrackenIt reduces waste.
Carl BrackenAnd dogs love them.
Carl BrackenAnd so they have sort of this cornered resource that allows them to scale.
Carl BrackenAnd so that's.
Carl BrackenThat's the second one I could go on and on.
Carl BrackenThere's a bunch of others.
Carl BrackenOne is a platform that has no, don't stop.
Chris WaltonCome on, keep going.
Chris WaltonI mean, there's people listening, going, oh, okay.
Carl BrackenAll right, all right.
Carl BrackenIf this is interesting, I'll keep going.
Carl BrackenAnother one is a company called Coherent Commerce invest in.
Carl BrackenIt was founded by two data scientists, one of which actually is also a Michelin star chef.
Carl BrackenAnd this one is.
Chris WaltonYeah, when you're a dated science.
Chris WaltonI'm also a Michelin star chef.
Carl BrackenYeah, yeah.
Carl BrackenWhen he told me that, I was like, me too.
Ann MazingaYeah.
Ann MazingaRenaissance man.
Ann MazingaI'll say.
Chris WaltonHe has trouble getting dates.
Carl BrackenExactly.
Carl BrackenAnd so what they've created is a sort of a platform, starting with food and beverage companies, that can actually take inputs, subjective and objective inputs, from early stage food and beverage brands and can ascertain, kind of via their algorithm, which ones are going to scale fastest.
Carl BrackenAnd so that's pretty interesting and for many reasons.
Carl BrackenAnd then the fourth one I'll mention is a company I invested in starting kind of the beginning of this year called Persephone Biosciences.
Carl BrackenThis company was founded by two PhD chemists, one from Caltech, one from Berkeley.
Carl BrackenThey've been studying the gut microbiome for the past seven years and have developed a point of view that will lead to oncology products that try to avoid colorectal cancer.
Carl BrackenBut they also have decided they can use the same platform to develop consumer products.
Carl BrackenSo their first consumer products are coming to market this fall.
Carl BrackenAnd it's focused on the infant and toddler gut microbiome and reverting it to what it should have been a childbirth.
Carl BrackenAnd so, like, they have 20 plus patents.
Carl BrackenThey have this, you know, this platform that is awesome.
Carl BrackenAnd they're super smart and great, you know, great people, and they're going to use that to come to market with consumer products.
Carl BrackenSo I'm helping them with their go to market strategy into consumer.
Carl BrackenSo, anyway, sorry, I went down a huge rabbit hole there, but hopefully those are interesting.
Chris WaltonNo, that's why we wanted you on the show.
Chris WaltonSo basically, the takeaway for me is like, one, you got to have a great leadership team.
Chris WaltonTwo, you're looking for the trends.
Chris WaltonSo gut health is definitely a trend, but then you're looking for defensible ip within the capitalization on that trend by the companies within which you're investing.
Chris WaltonIs that right?
Carl BrackenThat's right.
Carl BrackenThe only thing I would add is if it was a trend that thought was going to last six months, I wouldn't invest in it.
Carl BrackenI think gut health is something that's going to be around.
Carl BrackenI mean, it's going to be a focus area for, you know, research and for products for, for decades to come, in my opinion.
Carl BrackenAnd so that's, that's why I feel so comfortable with this company.
Chris WaltonRight?
Chris WaltonOr like, upcycling dog food, too.
Chris WaltonSame, same idea.
Chris WaltonLike, upcycling is going to be a trend that's not going to go anywhere.
Chris WaltonThat's.
Chris WaltonThat's your point there.
Chris WaltonOkay.
Carl BrackenThat's exactly right.
Carl BrackenYep.
Carl BrackenYeah.
Chris WaltonAll right, man.
Chris WaltonWell, man, that blew by, and I was, I know.
Chris WaltonI was like, this is like edge of your seats.
Chris WaltonEdge of your seat listening.
Chris WaltonFor me, I was just like, letting, like, just enjoying hearing Carl wax on about everything.
Chris WaltonSo, uh.
Chris WaltonSo, Carl.
Chris WaltonYes.
Chris WaltonSo thank you.
Chris WaltonIn closing, we appreciate your perspective bringing, bringing great conversations also at omni talk.
Chris WaltonAnd if people want to get in touch with you for what I imagine could be a whole host of different reasons for those listening to this podcast, what is the best way for them to do that?
Carl BrackenYeah, my website for my firm is www.ocampocapital.com.
Carl Brackenyou can reach out to me there or on LinkedIn, or you can also reach me@carlcamplecapital.com dot.
Carl BrackenThat would be just fine.
Chris WaltonAwesome.
Chris WaltonWell, hopefully we'll have you back on again soon.
Chris WaltonThat wraps us up.
Chris WaltonThanks again to Carl Bracken, founder and CEO of the new venture capital firm Ocampo Capital.
Chris WaltonAnd thanks to everyone out there for listening into our first episode of what we hope will be an ongoing series on investor perspectives across retail and the consumer goods industries.
Chris WaltonPlease let us know what you thought of our interview with Carl on social media.
Chris WaltonAnd as always, on behalf of all of us here at Omnitalk, on behalf of Anne and myself, be careful out there.