¡Buenos días from Louse Point! This is the Rorshok Argentina Update from the 17th of July twenty twenty-five. A quick summary of what's going down in Argentina.

Let’s start with this week’s controversy. A judicial investigation is raising eyebrows over a private jet that landed in Buenos Aires from Miami in February of this year, carrying at least ten suitcases—half of which were never declared or scanned. The only passenger, Laura Belén Arrieta, works for Leonardo Scatturice, a businessman who’s connected to Argentina’s libertarian political scene and the Conservative Political Action Conference that featured President Milei.

Surveillance footage and court documents show customs agents escorting Arrieta and the crew through a side route that bypassed all baggage checks, despite having working scanners and no crowding. Government officials insist they had nothing to hide, saying that they themselves filed the complaint, but the new video evidence has fueled suspicions of favoritism, smuggling or misconduct. The case remains open, with no charges filed so far.

But that’s not the only controversy making headlines this week. President Milei is furious after the Senate approved a pension hike and social security bonus that would increase public spending by about 2.5% of the GDP—threatening the government’s fiscal surplus. Milei slammed the move as an “institutional coup” and promised to veto the bill, accusing provincial governors and opposition lawmakers of sabotaging his austerity agenda ahead of October’s midterm elections.

The minimum pension in Argentina remains well below the poverty line, and the Senate overwhelmingly backed the bill, with support from Peronists, Radicals, and provincial parties. Milei warned the measure could trigger market instability and accused his critics of defending a failed political model.

He doubled down on his libertarian rhetoric, even praising Chile’s Pinochet-era economic reforms—without mentioning the dictatorship’s human rights abuses.

The market did take a hit, as the parallel dollar rate shot up to 1,300 pesos after the bill. Stocks and bonds plunged, with major banks and energy companies suffering the most, both at home and on Wall Street. Investors grew worried that the increased spending could fuel inflation and push the dollar even higher, just as things were beginning to stabilize.

The market didn’t like the Senate’s push for more spending, and it turns out, there may be more of it on the horizon. According to the Argentine Public Budget Association, the government is burning through its budget at the fastest pace in a decade. By the end of June, 45% of the annual budget had already been used, well above the usual 40% average for this point in the year. If this pattern continues, the country could run out of room to maneuver financially unless it either cuts spending or finds new income sources.

To add even more tension, this week a viral video threw the economy team into damage control after Alejandro Fantino, a journalist and TV presenter, said that Luis Caputo, the Economy Minister, told him the country was heading into three very rough months. The video, which showed a short clip of Fantino’s commentary, spread quickly on social media. Caputo pushed back, saying Fantino had taken their conversation out of context and that the edited clip distorted his message.

Fantino then admitted the viral version left out key parts where he described a hypothetical turmoil caused by the opposition derailing the government’s economic plan. Caputo also accused the opposition of trying to create panic before the midterms.

Speaking of the elections, two major coalitions locked in their alliances ahead of the Buenos Aires province legislative elections: Peronism will run as a unified front under the name Fuerza Patria, while President Milei’s La Libertad Avanza (or LLA) joined forces with the right-wing PRO to compete under the LLA banner.

Peronist leaders Axel Kicillof, Sergio Massa, and Máximo Kirchner managed to align just before the deadline, putting internal rivalries aside. Meanwhile, the LLA and PRO made their long-discussed alliance official, with local leaders Sebastián Pareja and Cristian Ritondo leading the charge. The next step for both coalitions is to confirm their candidate lists by the 19th of July for the 7th of September vote.

Last week’s episode covered the inflation rate in Buenos Aires City for June. Now, we have the national figures. This past month, Argentina’s inflation rate edged up slightly to 1.6%, just above May’s 1.5% and below what analysts had predicted, signaling some signs of price stabilization. While annual inflation is still hovering around 40%, that’s a notable drop from the peaks seen last year.

Even though inflation is slowing, many Argentines are still struggling with stagnant wages and the high cost of living, and poverty remains a serious concern.

On that topic, the government has raised the annual income cap for the monotributo, Argentina’s simplified tax system for freelancers and small business owners. The top annual cap jumped from eighty-two million pesos (63,000 US dollars) to ninety-five million (73,000 dollars). That means anyone earning up to ninety-five million pesos a year can still qualify for the monotributo, which features a flat monthly tax and bundled social security contributions. However, monthly payments are also set to rise by about 15%.

Workers can update their tax category until the 5th of August, based on their income over the past year. The government says these changes reflect inflation adjustments and aim to keep the tax system aligned with the real economy.

The government is looking to shake up another key sector of the economy: real estate. A new bill proposed by Alejandro Bongiovanni, a PRO deputy, aims to completely deregulate Argentina’s real estate market by scrapping the need for a professional license or university degree to work as a real estate agent.

The plan would let anyone operate nationwide without fixed commission fees or restrictions on where they can work, removing control from professional associations, which Bongiovanni says hold a monopoly and limit competition. While the government supports this move as part of a broader push to cut red tape and boost competition, the Argentine Real Estate Chamber strongly opposes it, warning that a lack of regulation could lead to worse service, more fraud, and unfair competition.

On that note about scrutiny, Alberto Fernández, the former president, has been indicted on corruption charges and will face trial over a scheme involving government insurance contracts during his twenty nineteen–twenty twenty-three term. Judge Sebastián Casanello accuses him of helping Héctor Martínez Sosa— a broker and Fernández’s secretary’s husband—land lucrative deals with state agencies, despite the option to work directly with the insurer, cutting out middlemen altogether

The judge froze over fourteen billion pesos in Fernández’s assets, and the case now involves money laundering, fraud, and misuse of public funds. Separately, Fernández is also being investigated for domestic abuse following a complaint by Fabiola Yáñez, his ex-partner and former First Lady.

In other news, the University of Buenos Aires just released its twenty twenty-five ranking of the best places to live in Greater Buenos Aires, and once again, the northern municipality Vicente López came out on top. The study looked at twenty-four municipalities and scored them based on five main areas: politics and institutions, economy, society, environment, and tech and infrastructure. Following Vicente López were Tres de Febrero, San Isidro, San Miguel, and Quilmes. The goal behind the ranking is to give mayors, planners, and researchers a better handle on what’s working—and what’s not—across the metro area.

Since we mentioned the northern area of Greater Buenos Aires, the government plans to move seventy native capybaras out of Nordelta—a posh gated community—after years of complaints from residents about the animals eating their plants, roaming their yards, and even swimming in pools. Daniel Scioli, the Environment Secretary, said they’ll relocate them to a nearby island, turn it into a sort of sanctuary, and give the animals contraceptives to keep the population in check.

Nordelta sits on what used to be wetlands, so environmentalists argue the capybaras aren’t invading, they’re just trying to survive in what used to be their home.

Finally, don’t forget to celebrate Friends’ Day this Sunday. The 20th of July marks Día del Amigo, a widely celebrated occasion where people get together to honor and appreciate their friends. It’s not an official public holiday, but it’s a big deal socially. Expect packed restaurants and bars both on Sunday and Saturday night.

Aaand that’s it for this week! Thank you for joining us!

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¡Nos vemos la próxima semana!