Hey, welcome to the Fantasy Football Game Plan. It's week four and we are talk talking prop bets for this week. Who's going to excel? Who's gonna flop what we like? Quentin, have you got anything lined up for us? I know you took a vacation week three. Not supposed to do that during football season, but you did and hopefully now you've got some really great ones for us in week four.

Yeah, I didn't really bet much last week. So excited to return to forum. We've had a pretty good start to the year in those first couple weeks. We're off to an 11 to five record and we're up about 10 and a half units on the year. So Let's keep it rolling into week four. Kicking off, couple rushing bets. wanted to start off with Cuba, Hubbard. Under 56 and a half rushing yards against the Patriots. The Carolina RU rushing attack, they do like leaning on it, but that Patriots defense is an NFL best, 39.3% stuff rate. So that means 39% of all opponent rush plays are either going for negative yards or, at max one. they are meeting people at the line of scrimmage and they're not, getting kind of pushed around there. Offensive line for the Panthers is already kind of banged up and dealing with some injuries.

Yeah.

this, line seems a little fishy too. 'cause in one of the games this year, he had, 56 yards on the dot. So like putting it at 56 and a half, or he had 57 on the dot. So now you get to say two thirds of the time he's hit this line, so you should take the over. It seemed just kind of like a trap. And I like taking the under here against that Patriots defense.

You know, I can't tell you that I think of defense when I think of the Patriots right now. But I think they are giving up more yards in the air than they are on the ground, and the panthers will probably have to go to the air.

Yeah, we'll see what options they have, especially if McMillan's banged up. But I think

Yeah.

get the workload. I just don't think it'll be efficient.

Alright. That's why you're on the yards and not the Carries. What else are we going to to bet on?

Next, this is a that we spent a lot of time talking about on our DFS episode, but hammering home, Ashton Genty and that we think he's gonna have a good game. I like his over 15 and a half. Longest rush at minus 1 0 5. I also like the longest rush in this play because I only need that one play and I'm betting on the talent. Genty was taking top five overall for a reason. We know how good he is. And this is a line that the Bears have allowed all four main running backs. They played, even though they've only had three weeks. But Jordan, Mason, Gibbs, and Montgomery and Javonte Williams all hit this over 15 and a half. Longest rush rush. They are giving up chunk plays on the ground, and main problem for the Raiders has been gently getting hit in the backfield or at the line of scrimmage. He's averaging a negative yards before contact from that offensive line, but the bears have the worst defensive line for yards before contact. They're letting the rusher get 2.3 yards already before they're even touched. And I just think that combination of talent in a port offensive line, you're gonna get these chunk plays.

Yeah, we talked a lot about this on our DFS, and I think this is. Ashton Gen's week. If it isn't, I'm probably gonna have to give up on him. 'cause I can't keep just saying that. I feel like for eight weeks I've just been cheering on Ashton Gente and it, it has to happen this week.

Yeah, I completely agree. If they can't get these plays against the Bears, then they're not gonna be able to get up against anyone.

Yeah. The next one that you've got here on our list. At least it's the under. I, I actually misread it there. I thought you were going on the over and I was really concerned. But you've got David Montgomery on the under.

I do. He had a huge game on Monday night against the Ravens. And I think he comes back to Earth now. He's playing the Cleveland Browns front and that has just been a ferocious front seven unit against the run. Here are the Russian totals they've allowed and the running backs they've allowed it to. They had Chase Brown who got 43 yards against them. They had Josh Jacobs who got 30 yards and they had Derrick Henry who got 23 yards. Now you have this secondary running back. Gibbs is the main running back for them. And his line is set above all of these. So I like the under here and I feel like. The Lions, you know, watching any tape, they're gonna just be trying to get Gibbs in space and use more of like a screen game in lieu of running between the tackles.

Yeah, I think that's gonna have to be their game plan. Cleveland looked really good against, the Packers last weekend and stopping them, as long as they're just not on a big, you know, we stopped the Packers. No, as long as they're still up, but I think they will be. I like this one.

And speaking of the Packers, we do like that game from a variety of angles, for that Packers Dallas Sunday night football game. What do you like for that game?

Yeah, so I think this is one of the games that has like all of our favorite bets in it for some reason. Maybe 'cause we didn't get to talk about it in DFS on the Sunday nights late. Anyhow, I like Devonte Williams. Under 13 and a half rushing attempts. It's a minus 1 0 6 on DK right now. I think we were all surprised for the first two weeks with Avante Williams leading that cowboys backfield. He had 15 and 18 rush attempts in the first two weeks, and then last week we saw Miles Sanders return and he had nine carries. It became a true share, which is kind of what we expected for, for the whole season. Now it's actually happening. So they've, they've dropped him down to 13 and a half, but still that might be too high with, going against the Packers. They're probably gonna need to pass more and they don't have CD lamb.

Yeah, and that's a good call too, just to the game script, because the first couple of games they were in like a neutral game script. They were in those games and then when they were getting blown out, miles Sanders was coming on the field a lot more.

Yeah, so I think we start seeing that share again, and I'm willing to go with Javonte Williams on the under here. What do you have on the Packer side?

I like it and I really just wanna attack this Dallas, passing defense. It is looked abysmal. The, I think the leading passer in the NFL right now is Herbert with 880 yards, but just quarterbacks against Dallas have totaled up 900 yards in these three games. I want to take. Jordan Love over 232 and a half passing yards. I just think this is too low against a really bad defense, and it's a nice bounce back spot going from that Cleveland unit to this Dallas defense. And then to pair with that, so a little parlay here, just a two pick parlay, but combining it with Matthew Golden over two and a half total receptions for that one.

Yeah, this is the perfect game to get Matthew Golden more involved. You've got the weak Cowboys defense, and Golden can you know, we just need three receptions to hit this.

Yeah, and he wasn't that good last week. He did run outta bounds on a play that was kind of ugly. But I think that kind of helps us here with our betting line. We're getting over two and a half when we combine those together. It's a plus 1 56. this feels good, especially with Golden seeing a full-time role. His snap percentage went from the mid forties to almost about 80% of the snaps. He was on the field. So,

Awesome. This is a great two, two leg parlay to get started with. What do we have on touchdown scores?

so for touchdowns, I kind of wanted to find an underpriced running back. A lot of running backs, they're typically, their odds are like one 50 for. Your typical ones and then your true workhorse, you're like Kyron Williams, Josh Jacobs. Jonathan Taylor will get to a round minus 200. Travis at TN was sitting there at plus 1 25, and I think it's because there's some ambiguity and just doesn't seem fun against the 49 ERs, but. That 49 ERs D line is not healthy. ETN is the clear number one running back right now. So plus 1 25 value, I think is just too good to pass up on.

Is ETN the number one, or We saw Tootin emerge more in week two, and then he was back off of him last week, I believe. It. Is it still ETN or are we going to see more Tootin?

I think for right now it's gonna be ETN. They have enough to try to fix on that offense and swapping around the running backs just is not gonna be one of their priorities. I think they need to figure out that wide receiver core a little bit more before they work on getting their rookie running back involved.

All right. Who else is gonna get a touchdown? And when you do these touchdown picks, you're not parlaying these right?

I am not, I just kinda like the value in the individual games. It's also just kind of fun to. When you're watching Red Zone and you're flipping through the games to have that little thing to cheer about for each game. I like that aspect. The next one is Lamar Jackson at plus 180. And really the main thing is all of these big time games, against the bills and now against the Chiefs and these games that feel like this might be for the one seed at the end of the season. He just seems to use his legs a lot more around the goal line. I like the Ravens to roll in the spot. I think they kinda to prove they're not a one in three team, I think they're gonna look good. I like Jackson to excel in the spot.

Yeah, I like Lamar as well in the spot. They've definitely got, they can't go one in three who, whichever one of these teams goes, one in three is in just a such a giant hole. And I don't feel like the Ravens are a bad team. They just keep blowing their leads and they have been more willing this year than last year to let Lamar run.

Yeah, and

I like this.

even if they lose, I mean, they're averaging 40 points a game, so that gives you plenty of upside to get this touchdown easy.

This is true. All right. What's the last one?

All right. The next one, kind of a cop out because I got two names in there, but it's a similar role. I want to go back to, these Vegas wide receivers against a man coverage defense. We saw what Trey Tucker did and him annihilating the Washington defense for three touchdowns last week. And now they're going against a Bears Defense that is without their best corner and plays still a lot of man coverage. That opens the doors up, especially with Bowers Limited, for their speed wide receivers. And that is Trey Tucker and Dante Thornton. Trey Tucker is a plus two 10 touchdown, even though he scored three of 'em last week. And Dante Thornton is plus three 40. I'm bringing up both names because Trey Tucker has a lot of the production, but as far as their, how they're being used in the offense, it's very similar. And Dante Thornton, is getting those deeper routes, I think when you compare the air yards. So the yards that they're targeted on Thornton is about 2 58, and then Tucker's like two 50. They're getting these deeper targets against man coverage. And so I like this spot for either of them to score. You can play both of them and still get a positive value if one of them hits, in this spot.

All right. I, I'm not sure that I'm on this. I tend to stay away from the touchdown bets, and when you start talking Trey Tucker and Dante Thornton, you kind of lose me.

Fair enough.

I've got plenty of options here to be budding though. How about our parlay for this week? What are we gonna do? I did want to mention, so we lost the ghost leg parlay, but DraftKings kind of has it, they've been talking a lot in their discord. If you're in their discord channel about testing out different things, they, they. Got us sucked in with that ghost leg parley the first couple weeks, and then in week three they made it where you had to earn it. So they're trying to get you to bet on Thursday night to earn that ghost leg Parley token on Sunday. And I guess. It, it didn't go quite as they wanted in week three because you had to make a $20 bet on Thursday night. So this week, in week four, they've dropped that to a $10 bet to get a $5, same game, parlay ghost leg on Sunday or a $20 bet to get a $10 one on Sunday. But they've given us at least another option on, on Thursday nights, so you don't have to bet $20.

Yeah, that is a good point. I'm glad they lowered it. I don't like putting that much on a same game. Parlay, But hopefully we won't need the ghost leg. We'll see if we can get all three of these picks this

hope, hopefully, but I, I, I'm gonna have the, the $5 token. I put a $10 bet down tonight.

Me too. I like the insurance, but the one we have today is a plus 4 93. So about five times your money. If it hits and it starts off with the game in Ireland. Aaron Rogers under 202 and a half passing yards. And the main reason, reason for this is one how ugly he looked last week and that passing attack, I think they had a hundred and they had less than 140 yards passing. And then. in this first travel week to Europe, sometimes when teams stay for multiple weeks, it works better. But in that first game, we see a lot of unders and a lot of low scoring games. People are waking up for these early games on the, especially on the West Coast. I think it's like 6:00 AM

Yeah.

And you're seeing an ugly game if you're waking up for it a lot of times for these Europe games. then it's just not a good matchup against a blitz heavy Flores zone defense. Which kind of goes against his wide receiver strengths for like, DK and Calvin Austin are both better against man than they are its own.

Yeah, I, I like the Aaron Rogers under, with everything that's going on here and going against that Vikings defense that just tore apart. The Bengals last week. Okay, so that's our first leg. Who's up next?

Next we're going back, to the Ravens and. Z flowers, bounce back game. So over four and a half receptions at a minus 1 36 for that leg. And I really just think that he's a critical part of this offense. This offense hums when he's involved and he gets a lot of those targets that you can't really defend against. He gets those short area targets. So that's why I like his receptions, not betting his yards, 'cause that's really dependent on what he does after the catch. But just getting the receptions for him, getting back into flow with his offense.

They have to realize that not getting the ball to Zay Flowers is an issue. And I really thought that last week we were going to see more Zay flowers and we didn't. It was all Mark Andrews and that's they, they're. Gonna keep losing if they don't get flowers involved in this passing game. So they have to, this has to be a focus for the Ravens of this week, is to get him involved. So I like this one.

Yeah. I think they'll go back in the tape room and realize that. This was mistake last week, and so

Yeah, it makes me nervous 'cause I thought they were gonna, you know, do that last week and say flowers was my touchdown score and didn't happen. What's the last leg?

So the last one I was kind of scouring different markets that we don't normally go into. And I found a special teams bet for us, with over eight and a half punts in the Tennessee Houston game. So over eight and a half punts. These are, the 29th and 32nd teams as far as third dime conversion rates. These teams love to punt. They also don't have aggressive. too. You know, it's not like Dan Campbell out there where it's like, we're going forward on fourth down. Like, they're like, all right, we're gonna try to not make a mistake and try to put our defense, like, try to give our defense an opportunity to put us, keep us in this game, especially Houston. So when you look at punt totals already, I think they're both tied for third in the league, and if you combine them, they're averaging 9.3 punts per game. So we can easily clear this line, especially pit it together where they don't have pressure to score. You know, it's a lot easier to not go forward on fourth down if it's a ten three game.

This is true. You know, I'm gonna say eight and a half punts actually doesn't seem like that many punts in a game. We're talking four or five a half and you hit this. When I think of a defensive game that doesn't seem like that big of a number.

Yeah, you're hoping that you never see this game on RedZone, and then your medal will probably hit.

All right. I like it. Well, that's it for week four. Tell us your favorite. Play in the comments and play smart. Have fun, and we'll see you next time.