Hello listeners.
Jacob Shapiro:Welcome back to Geopolitical Cousins.
Jacob Shapiro:This is part one of the Trade Value Leader Index column,
Jacob Shapiro:whatever you want to call it.
Jacob Shapiro:Uh, Marco and I bring our top 30 leaders.
Jacob Shapiro:We go back and forth.
Jacob Shapiro:Part two will be digesting the list and arguing about
Jacob Shapiro:whether we were right or wrong.
Jacob Shapiro:Uh, please, we want your feedback.
Jacob Shapiro:Email me at jacob@jacobshapiro.com or uh, marco@geopoliticalalpha.com.
Jacob Shapiro:Or you can, you know, if you just do me, I'll also make sure that Marco is CC'd.
Jacob Shapiro:We want your feedback on this list.
Jacob Shapiro:It'll be controversial.
Jacob Shapiro:We want the controversy.
Jacob Shapiro:It's great.
Jacob Shapiro:Um, take care of the people you love.
Jacob Shapiro:Cheers and see you out there.
Marko Papic:Finally, after, uh, a long delay due to well life reality,
Marko Papic:Israel, Iran, all that stuff.
Marko Papic:Uh, we are finally going to do a trade value, um, list for.
Marko Papic:Basically global leaders, so this is based on as many things of our
Marko Papic:podcast are on the, uh, bill Simmons podcast and he does this NBA trade
Marko Papic:value list where he basically looks at the top 50 players in the NBA and
Marko Papic:tries to establish their trade value.
Marko Papic:This is, this doesn't mean who's the best player in the world, it's just
Marko Papic:that who would you trade for who?
Marko Papic:So the player that's number one on this list would be UNT Tradeable.
Marko Papic:Effectively, if any team called you and said, Hey, we want.
Marko Papic:This guy, you would say?
Marko Papic:No.
Marko Papic:Um, now that's a combination of age of salary and skill because of course,
Marko Papic:somebody who's like, let's say 39 years old and extremely good, but paid a bunch
Marko Papic:of money, may not be that UNT tradable.
Marko Papic:Uh, similarly, somebody who's ranked 10th on this list, it would mean
Marko Papic:that everybody ranked one to nine.
Marko Papic:You would absolutely trade that player, uh, for those top nine.
Marko Papic:So in the context of politics, it means that, let's say that the prime
Marko Papic:minister of your country that you live in is ranked 23rd on our list.
Marko Papic:You would absolutely.
Marko Papic:Drive your prime Minister to the airport, pack your bag and ship
Marko Papic:them for anyone above, right?
Marko Papic:So that's, that's kind of what we're doing here.
Marko Papic:Um, now a couple of things I wanna say, uh, before we start as an introduction.
Marko Papic:First of all, I'm a big believer in the Warren Buffet quote.
Marko Papic:Uh, I try to invest in businesses that are so wonderful that an idiot can
Marko Papic:run them sooner or later, one will.
Marko Papic:And so, um, I think both you and I, Jacob, I think we agree that fundamentally
Marko Papic:our framework for thinking about geopolitics is that we try to invest
Marko Papic:in countries that are so wonderful that an idiot can run them because sooner
Marko Papic:or later one will so replace company with country and, and you get, uh, a
Marko Papic:little bit of a taste of what we do.
Marko Papic:So this is kind of unnatural in a way because I think that our, um.
Marko Papic:You know, you and I both kind of have a bias to maybe de-emphasize leadership.
Marko Papic:Me maybe more than you, doesn't matter.
Marko Papic:The point is, we're doing this for fun.
Marko Papic:Okay.
Marko Papic:This is cool.
Marko Papic:It's fun.
Marko Papic:We're gonna get to rank politicians around the world.
Marko Papic:I mean, that's kind of cool.
Marko Papic:The other thing I wanna say is that this is not necessarily
Marko Papic:just about current performance, I think it's also about the future.
Marko Papic:So we're, we're projecting and that's what the trade value that
Marko Papic:Bill Simmons does with basketball players is also about the future.
Marko Papic:That's why he will often rank younger players higher than those
Marko Papic:who are already mature and have already sort of been priced in.
Jacob Shapiro:Yeah, that was actually, I thought that was the hardest part of
Jacob Shapiro:developing my own list was thinking about like, the future of different leaders.
Jacob Shapiro:'cause if it's just like you're trading one for today, it's like
Jacob Shapiro:that's a different conversation than sort of, uh, the future.
Jacob Shapiro:So I'm, I'm curious to see where we land on that.
Marko Papic:Okay.
Marko Papic:A couple of more things that I wanna say.
Marko Papic:Four points I wanna make before we start just to orient ourselves.
Marko Papic:Uh, first of all, we are trying to.
Marko Papic:Rank policymakers across different countries.
Marko Papic:Right.
Marko Papic:And so when I kind of floated this idea to a bunch of my friends I respect,
Marko Papic:they say, well, that's impossible.
Marko Papic:You know, running Greece is such an incredibly different job from
Marko Papic:running the United States of America.
Marko Papic:So how can you possibly compare, um, prime Minister Mitsa with,
Marko Papic:you know, president Trump?
Marko Papic:What we're assuming here is that there is something inherent about
Marko Papic:leadership, something truly universal.
Marko Papic:And of course, Machiavelli wrote the Prince specifically to elucidate
Marko Papic:some of those universal qualities.
Marko Papic:It wasn't just about how to be a good prince in Italy, in an Italian city state,
Marko Papic:although he did have chapters at the end, kind of tucked in later about that.
Marko Papic:Mm-hmm.
Marko Papic:It was really about something that's inherent to being a leader
Marko Papic:of other men and women in a country.
Marko Papic:So our primary definition here of a successful policymaker is
Marko Papic:somebody who takes on the material constraints of their context and
Marko Papic:sees to successfully overcome them.
Marko Papic:So this is about bending time space altering reality.
Marko Papic:And this is very unnatural to me, Jacob, because I'm such a hard nosed believer
Marko Papic:that ultimately material constraints matter so much more than anything else.
Marko Papic:And I'm basically arguing here.
Marko Papic:I wanna pick those leaders who, uh, take those material
Marko Papic:constraints and overcome them.
Marko Papic:Second, it also means that small country policy makers may have an advantage here.
Marko Papic:They will often be the ones that have more, obviously,
Marko Papic:overcome their disadvantages.
Marko Papic:And you'll see that certainly in my list.
Marko Papic:I dunno if that was the case with yours.
Marko Papic:Um, I don't know if you, you potentially found that as well.
Marko Papic:And by the way, we don't know each other's list, so this is probably
Marko Papic:going to be a complete shit show.
Marko Papic:Just to be clear.
Marko Papic:Like I'm, I'm, I'm, I'm guessing we will have no alignment, at least, at
Marko Papic:least Bill Simmons is using statistics, you know, when he says this basketball
Marko Papic:player averages this or that he knows how much the contracts are and so on
Jacob Shapiro:third, well, no, but I, I listened to your prompt.
Jacob Shapiro:You had a couple of things that I needed to keep in mind, so I bet
Jacob Shapiro:We'll, I bet we'll land closer than you think, but I mean, I,
Marko Papic:I hope so.
Marko Papic:I hope so.
Marko Papic:So let's go through that prompt.
Marko Papic:Uh, we have a loose hierarchy of how we measure one's performance.
Marko Papic:So this is like statistics for a basketball player,
Marko Papic:uh, that Bill Simmons uses.
Marko Papic:Here's what we're using, first approval rating by the public.
Marko Papic:It's kind of like po uh, points per game.
Marko Papic:It's, it's a little bit of an empty calorie stat.
Marko Papic:You know, you can, you can have good stats on a bad team.
Marko Papic:Um, populists obviously have great.
Marko Papic:Popularity early in their term because they're giving candy to the people.
Marko Papic:Nonetheless, we all believe that on some level, uh, the median voter is
Marko Papic:wise and, uh, well, at least I do.
Marko Papic:I know Jacob less so, uh,
Jacob Shapiro:yes.
Jacob Shapiro:I think the median voter is a moron.
Jacob Shapiro:I I'll take that position against you every time.
Marko Papic:Such a, that's maybe the only thing where you are
Marko Papic:more elitist than I am, you know, so, uh, but that's interesting.
Marko Papic:The second is, come at be
Jacob Shapiro:median voters.
Jacob Shapiro:I think you're all idiots.
Jacob Shapiro:I will take the house against all of you.
Marko Papic:We need the median voter to reach escape velocity on this podcast.
Marko Papic:Economic performance.
Marko Papic:Economic performance of the country is the next, I mean, you know, it's objective.
Marko Papic:We can measure it again, it can be juiced up by populace, but we're
Marko Papic:trying to do our best, uh, especially relative to the peers by the way.
Marko Papic:That's where it matters.
Marko Papic:Geopolitical performance in terms of building alliances, projecting power,
Marko Papic:navigating a complicated neighborhood, staying sidestepping, landmines that are
Marko Papic:out there, choosing China versus America, trying to balance them, that's important.
Marko Papic:Finally, military performance could be in there too.
Marko Papic:Uh, that could be critical for some leaders like Bibi and Zelensky.
Marko Papic:However, I think it's very diff difficult to personalize that.
Marko Papic:I'm not sure to what extent they're actually doing anything on the front
Marko Papic:lines, so just keep that in mind.
Marko Papic:Uh, finally, I just wanna remind everyone, the whole point of this is very simple.
Marko Papic:Would you trade this leader for somebody else?
Marko Papic:That's, that's the point.
Marko Papic:Uh, if you are in a particular country, who would you trade?
Marko Papic:The person who leads your country for someone else.
Marko Papic:Now, finally, uh, last setup before we go into it, we have, um, I think it's, uh,
Marko Papic:well, 30, we're gonna do a list of 30, and we have several categories, uh, that
Marko Papic:we're gonna try to smush our leaders in.
Marko Papic:Uh, first of all, the bottom rank.
Marko Papic:And by the way, if you're in the top 30, you're good.
Marko Papic:So I don't wanna hear anyone complaining like, oh, you made so and so number 28.
Marko Papic:Yeah, there's like 190 sovereign countries in the world, right?
Marko Papic:Like, if you are on our list, you're not doing poorly.
Marko Papic:So the, the bottom part of our list, we call it product of a system or a
Marko Papic:situation, you know, is this somebody who's just like, I mean, clearly
Marko Papic:the, the, the country's doing well.
Marko Papic:But we're not sure if we should really give them the credit.
Marko Papic:So that's why they are in this bottom line.
Marko Papic:Then we go to flawed, but effective, I felt like we should have a category
Marko Papic:for those leaders who have some problems with their track record, like
Marko Papic:human rights, you know, like, ugh, this is one of those like, ugh, like
Marko Papic:sections, but they're still effective.
Marko Papic:So that's, that's that one.
Marko Papic:Then we have some unproven gems that wanted a category.
Marko Papic:This is where like, you know, they're, they, they look like they're really
Marko Papic:good, but it's too early to tell, uh, that diamonds under pressure,
Marko Papic:miracle workers, these are leaders that are really taking their country and
Marko Papic:massively outperforming expectations.
Marko Papic:Uh, then UNT tradable unless, right, so these are leaders that you would
Marko Papic:not trade unless somebody called you from the top five or top six or
Marko Papic:however many you have, which is, I. I'm hanging up the phone right now.
Marko Papic:That's the last category.
Marko Papic:That means that if you had a chance to trade these and somebody
Marko Papic:calls you and says, Hey, can we take this number one policymaker?
Marko Papic:Uh, you would say No.
Marko Papic:Hanging up the phone.
Marko Papic:Okay.
Marko Papic:Jacob.
Marko Papic:I think that's, that's it, right?
Jacob Shapiro:I think you did a great job.
Jacob Shapiro:We we're also gonna do some honorable mentions, uh, too, right?
Jacob Shapiro:To start people that were on the, on the bubble, but didn't quite make the list.
Marko Papic:Well, let's do that at the end.
Marko Papic:Oh,
Jacob Shapiro:you wanna do it at the end?
Jacob Shapiro:Okay.
Jacob Shapiro:I thought we would go bottomed up, but we can do it at the end too.
Jacob Shapiro:That's fine.
Jacob Shapiro:Yeah,
Marko Papic:yeah.
Marko Papic:Just, just because, you know, then you get a chance to explain why
Marko Papic:some of those honorable mentions didn't make it on the list, right?
Jacob Shapiro:Yeah, yeah, you're right.
Jacob Shapiro:And that, that way we don't give away, uh, some that are not gonna be on the list.
Jacob Shapiro:So, I'm with you.
Jacob Shapiro:I'm with you.
Marko Papic:Alright, cool.
Marko Papic:So first I'm gonna start off with this, uh, with my, I actually, uh, so Jacob,
Marko Papic:uh, in these categories, I ended up doing just five each, you know, so
Marko Papic:there's six categories, five each.
Marko Papic:Uh, but if you didn't, that's co totally cool.
Marko Papic:Uh, we're gonna start off with products of a system in a situation.
Marko Papic:Um, first I wanna shout out to Finland and Switzerland.
Marko Papic:Uh, they're well run places that don't really seem to
Marko Papic:need anybody to be in charge.
Marko Papic:Uh, I would've loved to put the president of the Swiss configuration onto this
Marko Papic:list, but they change it every year, and so it doesn't really matter.
Marko Papic:Switzerland just chucks along and perhaps because Switzerland is such a
Marko Papic:well run place, and yet nobody really knows who's in charge of it, perhaps.
Marko Papic:That more than anything illustrates the complete vacuous of this effort.
Marko Papic:You know, Switzerland has solved the problem by not needing anybody to lead it.
Marko Papic:But anyways, uh, the 26 to 30 in no particular order, but I'm gonna start
Marko Papic:from the last Donald task of Poland.
Marko Papic:Luca Doche at 29 of Slovenia.
Marko Papic:Oh, I'm sorry, I, sorry, my bad.
Marko Papic:Robert Goup of Slovenia at 29.
Marko Papic:Lawrence Wong of Singapore at 28, although he could have also been in the
Marko Papic:two new, two fresh, uh, to know too soon to tell category, uh, OLF Christen of
Marko Papic:Sweden and met f Fredrickson of Denmark.
Marko Papic:So as you can see, a lot of advanced OECD sort of wealthy
Marko Papic:places that are just well run.
Marko Papic:I can't tell if it's the leadership or not the case for Donald Tusk.
Marko Papic:Cover of the Economist, probably k Poland's kind of riding high.
Marko Papic:You know, there's a lot of Poland hype out there.
Marko Papic:Um, I think I have a gut feeling he's a Superior Commission president,
Marko Papic:then president of Poland, uh, then Prime Minister of Poland.
Marko Papic:Um, but that's just me.
Marko Papic:Why did I put Slovenia here?
Marko Papic:Just crushing it.
Marko Papic:Goop came out of nowhere.
Marko Papic:Um, new movement, kind of the Emmanuel Macron of Slovenia has done really well.
Marko Papic:Popularity is down a little bit, but, uh, generally the economy
Marko Papic:and Slovenia are doing extremely well in their neighborhood.
Marko Papic:Lauren Swang, uh, you know, has been in power really since
Marko Papic:May 20, 24, so not that new.
Marko Papic:His speech after April 2nd, uh, tariff announcement was probably the best
Marko Papic:pushback and you would not have expected that to come from Singapore, which
Marko Papic:usually tries to have a low profile.
Marko Papic:Um.
Marko Papic:Speech against those tariffs was really, really impassioned
Marko Papic:and, and excellent wolf.
Marko Papic:Christen, why is the Swedish Prime Minister here?
Marko Papic:Well, a very complicated coalition actually with Swedish Democrats that
Marko Papic:they've navigated extremely smoothly.
Marko Papic:So this is the far right populist party, obviously NATO membership, um, you know,
Marko Papic:lots of things going on Generally, uh.
Marko Papic:I think that's very impressive.
Marko Papic:And then finally met the f fredrickson handling of Trump, number one.
Marko Papic:Uh, I think that this whole Greenland thing didn't take the bait.
Marko Papic:She's done great.
Marko Papic:And I think that was a, a really good performance.
Marko Papic:So those are my 26 to 30 in reverse order.
Jacob Shapiro:I. Gotcha.
Jacob Shapiro:All right.
Jacob Shapiro:Mine was, mine was 25 through 30, so I put, I put an additional
Jacob Shapiro:person in this category, so mine weren't five per category.
Jacob Shapiro:I moved things around a little bit and I really struggled with the
Jacob Shapiro:system thing 'cause I could put too many people in the system thing.
Jacob Shapiro:So I sort of like, this is my all flawed but serviceable, almost category,
Jacob Shapiro:all smooshed because I couldn't, I couldn't figure out how to make the
Jacob Shapiro:system thing work with the rest of the list, which is probably my own thing.
Jacob Shapiro:Um, it's interesting too, by the way, I'll tell you that Lawrence Wong will
Jacob Shapiro:make an appearance much higher on my list.
Jacob Shapiro:I think you're under indexing future potential in that pick.
Jacob Shapiro:This is somebody who years down the road, like, I like him and he is
Jacob Shapiro:already done some other stuff, not just as, uh, as, as, uh, president, like,
Jacob Shapiro:you know, he was the one who helped design some of Singapore's pandemic
Jacob Shapiro:policy sort of behind fiscal policy.
Jacob Shapiro:He's.
Jacob Shapiro:Calm, he's globally fluent.
Jacob Shapiro:I asked Chad GPT to give me a scouting report on him based on a basketball
Jacob Shapiro:player and it's spit back at me.
Jacob Shapiro:High efficiency governance in a clean package, like a
Jacob Shapiro:macro economic Kyle Corver.
Jacob Shapiro:I'm happy to get Kyle Corver with the thir, with the, you know, with that.
Jacob Shapiro:So anyway, he's much further on my list, but here, here here's where I'll
Jacob Shapiro:go from 30, um, up to 25 at 30, I'm gonna put in Abby Ahmed in Ethiopia.
Jacob Shapiro:Um, he's actually made a ton of missteps and the civil war with the
Jacob Shapiro:Tigray has been very, uh, destructive.
Jacob Shapiro:I think before that though, Ethiopia was a darling of emerging markets
Jacob Shapiro:and I think he is trying to forge.
Jacob Shapiro:A, an Ethiopian national identity.
Jacob Shapiro:So in terms of like, like scale of, uh, not like a degree of difficulty, uh, I
Jacob Shapiro:think he's had a really, really hard thing and he is trying to do something that
Jacob Shapiro:is unprecedented in Ethiopian history and maybe even in African history.
Jacob Shapiro:So I put him on the list for there.
Jacob Shapiro:Uh, 29 we get Paul Kagame and Rwanda.
Jacob Shapiro:Hmm.
Jacob Shapiro:Uh, he almost dropped off the list because getting kind of old and, you know,
Jacob Shapiro:there's some other things happening now.
Jacob Shapiro:It sort of seems like we're doing another version of the Congo Wars.
Jacob Shapiro:Is he really gonna have the stamina?
Jacob Shapiro:But think about where Rwanda was before Paul Kagame and think about
Jacob Shapiro:where, where it is right now.
Jacob Shapiro:He's on the list for me.
Jacob Shapiro:Uh, at 28, I had Emmanuel Macron, he would've been much higher,
Jacob Shapiro:except that he's a lame duck.
Jacob Shapiro:He won't be here for much longer.
Jacob Shapiro:Mm-hmm.
Jacob Shapiro:So if this were 2017, probably would've put him higher up.
Jacob Shapiro:He's got lots of problems.
Jacob Shapiro:He wears thin domestically.
Jacob Shapiro:Um, nobody actually likes him, so he like, thinks strategically
Jacob Shapiro:and tries to do lots of things.
Jacob Shapiro:And I appreciate how he tried to go against Francis.
Jacob Shapiro:Constraints failed in a lot of different ways, but hey, you get points for
Jacob Shapiro:trying, but he's low on the list because not that much time left for him.
Jacob Shapiro:Uh, right next to him at 27.
Jacob Shapiro:I'll throw in Friedrich Mers.
Jacob Shapiro:I can't, I'm not really sure what to make of him quite yet.
Jacob Shapiro:Like, uh, his first, like, steps out of the gate were not great, like, didn't
Jacob Shapiro:get the chancellorship on the first vote.
Jacob Shapiro:Those were like basic blocking and tackling errors that made me skeptical.
Jacob Shapiro:So I've thrown him in there.
Jacob Shapiro:He, he made it to the top of Germany.
Jacob Shapiro:But timing, like lots of different things.
Jacob Shapiro:Um.
Jacob Shapiro:To say there, and then rounding out my top two for this category at 26,
Jacob Shapiro:I've got Abdul Fata LSI in Egypt.
Jacob Shapiro:Dictator strongman probably doesn't transport to a lot of different
Jacob Shapiro:geographies well, but as a military strongman has done a remarkable job in
Jacob Shapiro:a sort of powder keg of a country with 120 million plus people, which was on the
Jacob Shapiro:verge of going to the Muslim Brotherhood.
Jacob Shapiro:Uh, and at 25, I'll throw in Ilham Aliev in Azerbaijan.
Jacob Shapiro:Mm-hmm.
Jacob Shapiro:Um, Azerbaijan has gone from strength to strength.
Jacob Shapiro:They won the Nur Carrabba war.
Jacob Shapiro:They're punching significantly above their weight from economic
Jacob Shapiro:performance doing extremely well.
Jacob Shapiro:He's this far down in the list because he's ultimately a resource autocrat.
Jacob Shapiro:So I'm not sure that Ali's game travels very much, but
Jacob Shapiro:it's perfect for Azerbaijan.
Jacob Shapiro:And Azerbaijan has done so well compared to, say, its neighbor Armenia
Jacob Shapiro:or some others, uh, in the South caucuses that I think he warrants,
Jacob Shapiro:uh, inclusion in this category.
Jacob Shapiro:So there, there's my, my 30 through 25.
Marko Papic:So what, who, so Ethiopia 30 Rwanda, 29 France 28.
Marko Papic:Uh, 27.
Marko Papic:I missed, sorry.
Marko Papic:Uh, I didn't put it down.
Marko Papic:Friedrich
Jacob Shapiro:Mers, Germany.
Jacob Shapiro:Oh, yeah.
Jacob Shapiro:Germany.
Jacob Shapiro:Germany.
Marko Papic:Germany.
Marko Papic:Interesting.
Marko Papic:Uh, you have, yeah.
Marko Papic:Okay.
Marko Papic:Uh, I struggled.
Marko Papic:Um, I struggled myself, uh, with, uh, Ali.
Marko Papic:I, I thought of adding him as well, and I think that's an interesting one.
Marko Papic:The other ones do, uh, make a appearance for me as well, except for e Egypt's, uh,
Marko Papic:cc he doesn't, uh, just that, uh, I don't know what to make of it yet, you know?
Marko Papic:Uh, mm-hmm.
Marko Papic:Uh, obviously navigating post Arab spring is, is a big deal, so maybe I, I
Marko Papic:feel bad now that he's not on my list.
Jacob Shapiro:Yeah.
Jacob Shapiro:I mean, I think it's easy to forget how chaotic things
Jacob Shapiro:were in age of 20 13, 20 14.
Jacob Shapiro:But like Mohammed Morsey was there, the Muslim Brotherhood was
Jacob Shapiro:ascendant, like Mubarak, and the military had been discredited.
Jacob Shapiro:And then like, boom, this guy just comes in goodbye.
Jacob Shapiro:Muslim Brotherhood, goodbye like Arab Spring.
Jacob Shapiro:Like we're just going back to military dictatorship again.
Jacob Shapiro:That doesn't travel particularly well.
Jacob Shapiro:Like Abdul fatal.
Jacob Shapiro:He's not winning any Democratic elections.
Jacob Shapiro:That's why he's like, but in, just in terms of like, would you want him
Jacob Shapiro:in charge of the machinery of state?
Jacob Shapiro:Yeah.
Jacob Shapiro:He has shown himself to be a stable hand, at least when it comes to that.
Marko Papic:Okay, good.
Marko Papic:Um, yeah.
Marko Papic:Uh, the other thing that I would say is that product of a system,
Marko Papic:I think you chose a lot of people that actually I have higher.
Marko Papic:Mm-hmm.
Marko Papic:Um, because I'm not sure that anyone can be really a product
Marko Papic:of Ethiopia or Ze Bijan.
Marko Papic:Those are very difficult places to rule.
Marko Papic:So the fact that you have them this slow is interesting.
Marko Papic:You know, I chose leaders who it's difficult for me to assess
Marko Papic:whether they are performing well or whether they're just running.
Marko Papic:Really well run countries.
Marko Papic:And so that's where, you know, like that's where Lawrence Wong or met the f
Marko Papic:Fredrickson, I mean, met the Fredrickson has done a, a, a really admirable job,
Marko Papic:uh, in Denmark on many different fronts.
Marko Papic:Um, but particularly with the ascendancy of Donald Trump, the
Marko Papic:way that they've handled that.
Marko Papic:On the other hand, Frederickson is running Denmark, you know,
Marko Papic:how difficult is really that?
Marko Papic:So that's where Well,
Jacob Shapiro:yeah, and I think this is one of the most difficult
Jacob Shapiro:things in this exercise is to try and compare across things.
Jacob Shapiro:'cause I had her much higher too, like both sh Oh, interesting.
Jacob Shapiro:Both, both.
Jacob Shapiro:She and Lawrence Wong, for me are in the, I'm hanging up in 30
Jacob Shapiro:seconds, so I'll think about it.
Jacob Shapiro:I, you know, but I, for me, they're high functioning technocrats or elite
Jacob Shapiro:lieutenants, like the sorts that I would sort of trust, like if you put met to
Jacob Shapiro:Frederickson in charge of Ethiopia.
Jacob Shapiro:She might do some really interesting things.
Jacob Shapiro:And I think when you, I think the other thing about democracies is I think we
Jacob Shapiro:don't wanna underestimate how mm-hmm.
Jacob Shapiro:Difficult it is to get to the top echelons of democratic power.
Jacob Shapiro:Um, it's a different skill set than say, you know, a Paul
Jacob Shapiro:Kagame or something like that.
Jacob Shapiro:But like somebody who's gotten to the top of Denmark and is crushing it like
Jacob Shapiro:that to me, like has, and if you get to the top of the Singapore system,
Jacob Shapiro:like that to me is telling me that you have some political credentials,
Jacob Shapiro:uh, credentials that could follow.
Jacob Shapiro:Whereas some of the others in this category, like I think they are
Jacob Shapiro:flawed, but serviceable statesmen and states, women, they have a low ceiling.
Jacob Shapiro:But if you just plugged them in, uh, yeah, they would give you some stability.
Jacob Shapiro:So like, if you're in.
Jacob Shapiro:I dunno, let's think of a really screwed up country.
Jacob Shapiro:If you're in like, uh, Kazakhstan is maybe a bad example, but if, if you're
Jacob Shapiro:in a country, uh, let's talk Vietnam, like Vietnam has been in the midst of
Jacob Shapiro:a power transition back and forth for a couple of years right now, and you
Jacob Shapiro:came and said, here, I'll trade you.
Jacob Shapiro:Like met to Frederickson, you'd be like, yeah, I'll take met to Fredericks.
Jacob Shapiro:That, that sounds great to me.
Jacob Shapiro:So
Marko Papic:cool.
Marko Papic:Okay.
Marko Papic:Well I'm glad that you didn't think that my list was overly
Marko Papic:indexed to Europe, because you have at least FedEx in there too.
Jacob Shapiro:I do.
Jacob Shapiro:Although I did not have Donald Tusk and, uh, Slovenia's not on my list.
Jacob Shapiro:Just 'cause I, I'm not up to date on Slovenia, sorry guys, but Donald Tusk
Jacob Shapiro:and of Christensen, like I considered them, but they did not make my list over.
Marko Papic:Okay, good.
Marko Papic:But I'm glad you considered them.
Marko Papic:At least that's, um, I struggled really with this category at the end.
Marko Papic:It was sort of like, you know, you could have gone a lot of different ways.
Marko Papic:I thought about Ethiopia, myself in Egypt.
Marko Papic:So, uh, good.
Marko Papic:So far, so good.
Marko Papic:Nothing, nothing that we really disagree with.
Marko Papic:Right.
Jacob Shapiro:Uh, no, I, the only thing is like, I think, yeah, Lawrence Wong
Jacob Shapiro:for me is much, much higher on my list.
Jacob Shapiro:Okay.
Jacob Shapiro:But everything else, I'm, I'm with you.
Marko Papic:Alright, cool.
Marko Papic:Okay, well let's go to the next one, which is flawed, but effective.
Marko Papic:And, and I felt it, uh, several of your picks really
Marko Papic:for me fit into this category.
Marko Papic:In fact, I have two, I have two that you picked a little bit higher because, uh, I
Marko Papic:see them as flawed, but quite effective.
Marko Papic:So I start off at 25.
Marko Papic:Uh, for me, 25 obviously.
Marko Papic:Uh, you picked six, I picked five.
Marko Papic:I started off with Erdogan.
Marko Papic:Mm. So I have him, uh, on my list pretty low.
Marko Papic:I suspect we might have some disagreement on this because I know of course that
Marko Papic:you have, uh, you hold Turkey and it's geopolitical potential in high regard.
Marko Papic:But I'm almost penalizing Reep type Erdogan because of that, because I feel
Marko Papic:that he should have done much better with what he has working for him.
Marko Papic:I don't feel that Turkey has really moved, I mean, uh, to expand its
Marko Papic:sphere of influence and yes, I, I understand that you've been pointing
Marko Papic:out its gains in the Middle East.
Marko Papic:However, the true, I think, sphere of influence that Turkey should be
Marko Papic:crushing is as it always has been between the Danube and the E gn.
Marko Papic:That is where Turkey should be projecting power.
Marko Papic:The other issue is that economy has been mismanaged.
Marko Papic:It just absolutely has been.
Marko Papic:Now there's been incredible improvement over the last two years, but that's
Marko Papic:because it started off with a low base.
Marko Papic:And unlike Javier Malay, who you can reward for the last 12 months of Orthodox
Marko Papic:policies, you can't really reward Erdogan for shifting towards more orthodoxy when
Marko Papic:he was the one that implement implemented unorthodox policies to in the first place.
Marko Papic:So I have him pretty low on, on this list.
Marko Papic:I'll, I'll fly through my other four really quickly and.
Marko Papic:Uh, I got Azerbaijan Ilham Ali of 24.
Marko Papic:Yep.
Marko Papic:Uh, pretty much for all the reasons that you said.
Marko Papic:So I don't wanna, uh, kind of waste, uh, time on that.
Marko Papic:I think the one thing that maybe you didn't mention is, uh, maneuvering
Marko Papic:between Turkey, Russia, and Europe.
Marko Papic:Uh, the fact that somehow magically Azerbaijan has been able to tra
Marko Papic:transit Russian natural acid to Europe and not get into trouble for it.
Marko Papic:Well done.
Marko Papic:Slow clap for, uh, Aliyah.
Marko Papic:Very well done.
Marko Papic:And, and
Jacob Shapiro:decent relations with Iran.
Jacob Shapiro:Decent relations with Israel, like really, like some upper level statesmanship.
Marko Papic:By the way, we've lost all our Armenian friends.
Marko Papic:I will not be allowed back into Glendale or, or my adopted hometown of Montreal.
Marko Papic:So I apologize to my, all my immediate friends who are listening to, but
Marko Papic:if you are honest with yourself.
Marko Papic:You'll concede, you'll bow, bow down your head in silent moment of despair and
Marko Papic:agree that Azerbaijan has been blessed with relatively effective leadership.
Marko Papic:Although, yes, as you pointed out, Jacob, we have to note that of
Marko Papic:course, it's easy to run a country whose wealth is greased by commodity,
Jacob Shapiro:uh, exports.
Jacob Shapiro:So that's Yeah.
Jacob Shapiro:But, but, but they're in a difficult neighborhood to, to our Armenian
Jacob Shapiro:friends, like I think any of you would trade your leadership for the
Jacob Shapiro:leadership of, of the Aliya family.
Jacob Shapiro:I think
Marko Papic:that's Well, and, and by the way, if you disagree, tell us.
Marko Papic:Tell us if, if you would, but, uh, from speaking to my Iranian friends and from
Marko Papic:observing Armenia, like the leadership, uh, vacuum has been pretty significant.
Marko Papic:So I agree with you.
Marko Papic:Uh, 23rd on my list.
Marko Papic:Anwar Ibrahim.
Marko Papic:Hmm.
Marko Papic:Good one.
Marko Papic:Shut.
Marko Papic:Yeah.
Marko Papic:Malaysia.
Marko Papic:Uh, first of all, uh, if there is one person on this list who has adopted, just
Marko Papic:like that ability to resurrect themselves, reinvent themselves, God bless Ibrahim.
Marko Papic:He has, uh, he's a survivor.
Marko Papic:Clearly.
Marko Papic:He is, uh, been in and out of court.
Marko Papic:He's been, uh, attacked by the elites in Malaysia.
Marko Papic:He's done a lot of different things.
Marko Papic:I also think that he has handled Malaysian geopolitics excellence since 2022,
Marko Papic:and also during the financial crisis.
Marko Papic:Uh, remember he was in charge and Malaysia did escape most of that East
Marko Papic:Asian crisis back now, 30 years ago.
Marko Papic:So he's, he's done really well.
Marko Papic:Um, I. Iman Macron is on this list for me.
Marko Papic:Flawed, but effective.
Marko Papic:Again, it's different.
Marko Papic:It's difficult because I, I feel like most of our French listeners will just
Marko Papic:say like, you guys are smoking crack.
Marko Papic:Um, nobody likes him, as you said.
Marko Papic:But look, here's the case for Macron.
Marko Papic:Um, he's managed to build a centrist coalition out of nothing.
Marko Papic:He's stayed in power a long time.
Marko Papic:Uh, and I think he's fallen short of a lot of the things
Marko Papic:that he's done, uh, domestically.
Marko Papic:But generally speaking, I think the fact that he asserted the two party
Marko Papic:system in France, like with his bare hands is, uh, is impressive.
Marko Papic:And finally, I have Paul Kagame, right?
Marko Papic:Flawed, flawed, but effective.
Marko Papic:Now you have Paul Kagame 29th.
Marko Papic:I have him 21st.
Marko Papic:Uh, astonishing economic development in Rhonda.
Marko Papic:I think we all agree with that.
Marko Papic:Um, I think the focus on healthcare and education.
Marko Papic:Wow.
Marko Papic:Like right.
Marko Papic:Yeah, this is, this is the Singapore economic model just,
Marko Papic:just imported into Rwanda.
Marko Papic:Like well done, obviously, um, on and off supporting insurgent in Congo.
Marko Papic:Not sure what the, what the winner gets, but Sure.
Marko Papic:And obviously troubled domestic track records.
Marko Papic:One of those domestic track records were like, you may not be able to
Marko Papic:retire, if you know what I mean.
Marko Papic:And that's not sure that that was necessary.
Marko Papic:Um.
Marko Papic:That's it.
Jacob Shapiro:Yeah, no, I, like, I, I think he belongs on the list.
Jacob Shapiro:If he were 10 years younger, he'd be higher on my list.
Jacob Shapiro:Like my interesting, including him at 29 is just about an age thing.
Jacob Shapiro:And he's been around for a long time and eventually things are, are gonna run out.
Jacob Shapiro:But I think you're right.
Jacob Shapiro:And I think he's actually, he's been masterful in the
Jacob Shapiro:way he interfered with Congo.
Jacob Shapiro:Like, I mean, when you think about where Rwanda was in the mid nineties and how he,
Jacob Shapiro:you know, strategically positioned Rwanda into a real force to be reckoned with
Jacob Shapiro:against much larger countries around it.
Jacob Shapiro:I think he deserves it.
Jacob Shapiro:I think we should spend just a second.
Jacob Shapiro:I should have had Anwar Ibrahim on this list and I, I don't have him on the list.
Jacob Shapiro:Um, that's a mistake on my part though.
Jacob Shapiro:I needed to make room for him and I didn't.
Jacob Shapiro:So I take your point there.
Jacob Shapiro:Erdowan is not that much higher for me.
Jacob Shapiro:I'll give away that.
Jacob Shapiro:He was number 16 on my list.
Jacob Shapiro:Um, again, here though, this is more about his age, like.
Jacob Shapiro:Erdogan is at the end of his career, sort of like a hall of Famer on their last leg.
Jacob Shapiro:So he's still dangerous.
Jacob Shapiro:He's still got some punches to throw, but there's not a whole
Jacob Shapiro:lot left, I think of Erdogan.
Jacob Shapiro:I think your shorts No, no, go ahead.
Marko Papic:No, no, please, please go ahead.
Jacob Shapiro:Just I think you're short selling a little bit of his,
Jacob Shapiro:of his accomplishment because his main accomplishment is to take when,
Jacob Shapiro:you know, when he became mayor of Istanbul, um, in, what was that late.
Jacob Shapiro:Late nineties, I forget the exact year.
Jacob Shapiro:Um, Turkey was truly a divided country where you had the liberal
Jacob Shapiro:secular, you know, cosmopolitan.
Jacob Shapiro:We're gonna drink rocky and sit on the bosphorous and eat fish crowd versus
Jacob Shapiro:the central anatol, conservative heartland, you know, looked down upon
Jacob Shapiro:by the cosmopolitans in Istanbul.
Jacob Shapiro:And Erdogan has forged a coherent country out of both of these.
Jacob Shapiro:He put the Anatolian conservatives not completely in power.
Jacob Shapiro:It's not like he's completely dismantled the cosmopolitanism of Istanbul
Jacob Shapiro:and all the things that have made whoever controls the Bosporus and
Jacob Shapiro:incredibly important trading partner and all these other things, but he's
Jacob Shapiro:integrated them into the economy and he's shown an incredible amount of
Jacob Shapiro:economic flexibility in doing so.
Jacob Shapiro:Remember, this is the guy who was giving me all the IMF reforms in the late two
Jacob Shapiro:thousands, into the early 2010s, like doing all the things by the book, but
Jacob Shapiro:then when he needed to grease the wheels.
Jacob Shapiro:And to secure arrangements with all of these different parts of society.
Jacob Shapiro:Sure.
Jacob Shapiro:Let's do a little state led, you know, Archy and like, you know, let's
Jacob Shapiro:make sure that the right people were in control of the right industries.
Jacob Shapiro:And if that means I have unorthodox monetary policy, so be it.
Jacob Shapiro:I'll just call up my friends in Saudi Arabia and I know that they'll bail me out
Jacob Shapiro:because they don't want me as an enemy.
Jacob Shapiro:I'm worse to them as an enemy, as as anything else.
Jacob Shapiro:So I think he's reaching the end of his rope.
Jacob Shapiro:I think you can see that, you know, in, uh, in arresting and imprisoning Ima mlu,
Jacob Shapiro:like, I don't think that's gonna age well.
Jacob Shapiro:You can see he's trying to maybe position sons or sons inlaws or like
Jacob Shapiro:other fa like all these things I think are not gonna go well for him.
Jacob Shapiro:Um, but I think he's, I think Turkey is in a much more powerful and economically
Jacob Shapiro:prosperous situation than it was before.
Jacob Shapiro:And I think he really threaded the needle on a country that very easily could have
Jacob Shapiro:gone, you know, in a different look at other countries in the Middle East and how
Jacob Shapiro:they dealt with conservative, more Islamic aspects of society and the way he was able
Jacob Shapiro:to forge something coherent out of that.
Jacob Shapiro:I mean, let's not invoke add a Turk, but hey, he's at
Jacob Shapiro:least doing a good impression.
Marko Papic:Okay.
Marko Papic:So,
Jacob Shapiro:um, I think I, I, my entire first six were all flawed but serviceable.
Jacob Shapiro:So I think what you should do next is you should read your next category
Jacob Shapiro:and then I'll do my next category.
Jacob Shapiro:'cause I don't, I don't want to get in front of your
Jacob Shapiro:categories, if that makes sense.
Marko Papic:Sense.
Marko Papic:Oh, okay.
Marko Papic:But, uh, do you wanna restate, uh, your next five or,
Jacob Shapiro:I think you should state your next and
Jacob Shapiro:then I'll follow on behind you.
Jacob Shapiro:I think that's Got it.
Jacob Shapiro:If, if we're, if we're keeping up with categories, that's
Jacob Shapiro:what's gonna line up best.
Marko Papic:Okay.
Marko Papic:Okay, cool.
Marko Papic:So the next one is unproven gems.
Marko Papic:Correct?
Jacob Shapiro:Yeah.
Jacob Shapiro:So though I, this wasn't make the G 20 photo or is this unproven gems?
Marko Papic:Uh, this is the unproven gems.
Jacob Shapiro:Oh, okay.
Jacob Shapiro:Um, I had make the, the G 20 photo, but that's fine.
Jacob Shapiro:It's all, that's fine.
Jacob Shapiro:It's all still good.
Jacob Shapiro:Okay, so,
Marko Papic:so I, I stopped at 21.
Marko Papic:And by the way, uh, so my last one was Paul Kme.
Marko Papic:I'm, you know, a lot about frontier markets, um, that I don't really
Marko Papic:follow very closely, so I'm very glad that you've kind of confirmed
Marko Papic:that that was a good pick.
Marko Papic:I, I'm, I'm glad we're aligned on that.
Marko Papic:Alright.
Marko Papic:Unproven gems.
Marko Papic:Unproven gems for me are basically kind of like, um, you know,
Marko Papic:lots of potential out there.
Marko Papic:I start off with Anthony Albanese in Australia.
Marko Papic:Done, well so far, very difficult situation.
Marko Papic:Um, a more isolationist to the United States.
Marko Papic:There's the cus review.
Marko Papic:Uh, he's trying to, uh, he's trying to pivot Australia away from
Marko Papic:what was, uh, extremely unipolar.
Marko Papic:Uh, basically worldview.
Marko Papic:It was really the only country, I think on the planet that just
Marko Papic:decided like, world is bipolar.
Marko Papic:China US is gonna go into a cold war.
Marko Papic:Uh, he's saying like, wait a minute.
Marko Papic:That doesn't seem like what's happening, so maybe I should adjust
Marko Papic:the foreign policy of Australia.
Marko Papic:And I think that's correct.
Marko Papic:Number 19,
Marko Papic:unproven Gem.
Marko Papic:Leo 14th, the Vatican.
Jacob Shapiro:Nice.
Jacob Shapiro:I knew you would like that.
Jacob Shapiro:Not on my list.
Marko Papic:Not on your list.
Marko Papic:Oh, not on
Jacob Shapiro:my list.
Jacob Shapiro:There we go.
Jacob Shapiro:Not on my list.
Marko Papic:Number 18, Friedrich Mez.
Marko Papic:Um, quite frankly, Friedrich Mez, I mean, he's, uh, on your list as
Marko Papic:27, just because you don't know.
Marko Papic:Um, I put him at 18.
Marko Papic:Quite frankly, I think we will both be proven, uh, to have
Marko Papic:not picked him high enough.
Marko Papic:I think, uh, so far what I've seen is, uh, quite frankly, really, really impressive.
Marko Papic:Number 17, Mark Carney.
Marko Papic:Uh mm-hmm.
Marko Papic:He gets a nod over Mertz just because I think it's more
Marko Papic:difficult for him than for Mertz.
Marko Papic:Uh, but, uh, doing very well.
Marko Papic:We talked a couple of, uh, episodes before about structural
Marko Papic:reforms going on in Canada.
Marko Papic:He has just submitted the one Canada bill legislation that is going to
Marko Papic:break down barriers between provinces.
Marko Papic:And I do believe that is going to pass.
Marko Papic:And I think that Canada will finally be like all other countries
Marko Papic:on the planet, a federal entity, which it hasn't been thus far.
Marko Papic:So that is actually enormous.
Marko Papic:I mean, some studies show that if they actually get that through, creating
Marko Papic:an economy will benefit massively.
Marko Papic:Like it will grow like a whole percent higher, um, because of those reforms.
Marko Papic:Mm-hmm.
Marko Papic:And then finally, this is gonna be maybe a controversial, uh, pick, maybe not.
Marko Papic:Ahmed Al.
Jacob Shapiro:Aha.
Jacob Shapiro:I uh, that's a great pick.
Jacob Shapiro:I left him off.
Jacob Shapiro:He was in my honorable mentions.
Jacob Shapiro:'cause um, I think he's very speculative.
Jacob Shapiro:Like you, you might have found Nicola Yoic or you might have found, uh, I don't know,
Jacob Shapiro:insert some other European player that didn't make it, that got drafted that way.
Jacob Shapiro:But what he's done so far is very, very impressive.
Marko Papic:Well, what's impressive is this is the former al
Marko Papic:basically Al-Qaeda aligned leader.
Marko Papic:Not basically
Jacob Shapiro:like, like yes, he was Al-Qaeda.
Marko Papic:He was Al Al-Qaeda.
Marko Papic:Yes.
Marko Papic:Uh, what's interesting though about him and his family and what
Marko Papic:makes me pause here is that he's actually extremely well educated
Marko Papic:person from a very educated family.
Marko Papic:Uh, so he is, uh, I think he went to school, uh, for medicine.
Marko Papic:Um, and he is married to somebody who comes from a very prominent
Marko Papic:political family that has very deep roots in Syria, in the elites.
Marko Papic:So, um, his father was also a, a prominent, uh, I think
Marko Papic:member of previous governments.
Marko Papic:Uh, so this is not somebody that just picked up an AK 47 off
Marko Papic:like a farm and joined Alqaeda.
Marko Papic:This is somebody who was frustrated with what was going on in his
Marko Papic:country, very well educated and, uh, fought against the side.
Marko Papic:And of course, the easiest way to get resources and weapons at
Marko Papic:the time was to join Alqaeda, um, or join its various offshoots.
Marko Papic:So thus far, uh, just an incredible savvy understanding of PR and marketing.
Marko Papic:I mean, he scored an interview with, uh, you know, AUR on CNN.
Marko Papic:Uh, he looks great in a suit.
Marko Papic:He is hedging a lot of different risks.
Marko Papic:Sharia law, this, that, uh, Israel, Iran, the only country in the entire
Marko Papic:region that was very quiet about it.
Marko Papic:Um, and I think that.
Marko Papic:It's been very impressive, uh, performance.
Marko Papic:Of course, the problems are what has been released over the last couple of days.
Marko Papic:There's now evidence of, you know, sectarian violence against the alloys.
Marko Papic:I mean, he needs to crush that ASAP if he's going to remain on this list.
Marko Papic:But I've got him at 16
Jacob Shapiro:or he just needs to crush all the alloys.
Jacob Shapiro:I'm not sure the alloys have long to go in Syria based.
Jacob Shapiro:I mean, they had their time in the sun led by a pretty brutal series of dictators.
Jacob Shapiro:Um, yeah, Leo the 14th, not on my list.
Jacob Shapiro:I don't think anyone would trade, uh, a White Sox fan for, uh, any
Jacob Shapiro:of these other leaders going on
Marko Papic:here.
Marko Papic:Oh, wow.
Jacob Shapiro:Oh, shots fired.
Marko Papic:That was the problem.
Marko Papic:Not these baseball dancing age or, you know, like I listen if you can, if you
Marko Papic:can survive the conclave of the cardinals and the backstabbing that happens there.
Marko Papic:You know what I mean?
Marko Papic:Like you're good.
Marko Papic:And I dunno, we'll see, but I threw him in there because you and I have
Marko Papic:a great affinity to talk about, uh, in, in inner workings of the Vaticans.
Marko Papic:So I figured why not?
Jacob Shapiro:Yeah, yeah.
Jacob Shapiro:Why not?
Jacob Shapiro:Merz Mers would've been hired for me, except that, you know, that
Jacob Shapiro:thing where he didn't get elected chancellor on the first vote.
Jacob Shapiro:That was sort of like JR Smith calling Time out in game one of that, uh, you
Jacob Shapiro:know, know how many timeouts you have, man, that's like a basic, fundamental task
Jacob Shapiro:of how you're gonna do these things if you can't do like, so maybe he'll be great.
Jacob Shapiro:And I appreciate that he's working against constraints here,
Jacob Shapiro:but he got penalized for me.
Jacob Shapiro:Uh, Bo both Albanese and Carney are higher up on this list.
Jacob Shapiro:Well,
Marko Papic:well I'm glad I was worried.
Marko Papic:I was very, very self-conscious about putting Alban here.
Marko Papic:Uh, because I thought you were gonna make fun of me, and I also expected, I also
Marko Papic:expected you to really shit all over my Mark Carney pick and call me a homer.
Marko Papic:So, uh, I may have even brought him lower just because I was self-conscious
Marko Papic:and afraid of being made fun of.
Jacob Shapiro:No, I, I think Carney's okay.
Jacob Shapiro:I think he's got a tough job ahead of him.
Jacob Shapiro:I think that caving on that digital services tax shows you just, that Canada
Jacob Shapiro:doesn't have a lot of options and that his job is gonna be to, you know, make
Jacob Shapiro:the best deal possible he can with Donald Trump in the United States without
Jacob Shapiro:completely bending over backwards.
Jacob Shapiro:So he's got a high degree of difficulty.
Jacob Shapiro:But, um, you know, if you're thinking about would you trade your current leader
Jacob Shapiro:for somebody like Mark Carney, like, he's gonna, like, he's higher up for me
Jacob Shapiro:because I think you can, if you start thinking about it that way, I think
Jacob Shapiro:there are a lot of countries in the world would be like, yeah, I'll take that guy.
Jacob Shapiro:He seems let's pretty smart.
Jacob Shapiro:Good, let's good like hand on the wheel.
Marko Papic:So let's explain what we mean by that.
Marko Papic:I mean, uh, essential bankers come and go, right?
Marko Papic:But having a smooth, sophisticated, and yet comfortable
Marko Papic:with being in a small town.
Marko Papic:Central banker, there is only one of one.
Marko Papic:Mario Drag may be the best dressed person on the planet.
Marko Papic:Uh, Mario Draghi may be the highest IQ person on the planet, but I don't
Marko Papic:think that Mario Drag would've been as comfortable in a small Canadian town
Marko Papic:discussing junior hockey as Mark Carney.
Marko Papic:And that's because he actually was born in Northwestern
Marko Papic:territories, not even a province.
Marko Papic:It's pretty much like Iraqis as far as you're concerned, or hot
Marko Papic:more appropriately climatically.
Marko Papic:And so he does have small town appeal and uh, ability to actually
Marko Papic:seem genuine, um, and authentic.
Marko Papic:And that's really a difficult combination to both be a macroeconomics nerd.
Marko Papic:And have that authenticity
Jacob Shapiro:well, and really understands the anglosphere,
Jacob Shapiro:like, understands Canada deeply, understands the UK deeply, I think
Jacob Shapiro:understands the United States deeply.
Jacob Shapiro:Like he's, you know, in that sense, he has a deep knowledge of where he
Jacob Shapiro:comes from and is able to balance some of these pressures against each other.
Jacob Shapiro:So yeah, I'm, I'm not, I have no problems with Kearney whatsoever.
Jacob Shapiro:I still think he's not governing a future superpower, but we can, we don't have to
Jacob Shapiro:take you through the, the coals for that.
Jacob Shapiro:Alright, well my next, my next category goes from 24 to 21.
Jacob Shapiro:Um, and I didn't really have it as unproven gems.
Jacob Shapiro:This is really just another grab bag of leaders that I
Jacob Shapiro:thought sort of belong together.
Jacob Shapiro:That's okay.
Jacob Shapiro:Okay.
Jacob Shapiro:Yeah.
Jacob Shapiro:Um, but, you know, um, but anyway, so at 24, I have pro Bwo in Indonesia.
Jacob Shapiro:Mm-hmm.
Jacob Shapiro:Um, this is a guy who has changed his stripes many different times.
Jacob Shapiro:He was a military.
Jacob Shapiro:Or really, you know, an assistant to a military dictator, did some human
Jacob Shapiro:rights violations, stayed around though for decades, eventually makes a deal
Jacob Shapiro:to become vice president with Jai.
Jacob Shapiro:Now he's finally, uh, the president showing off some of his like negative
Jacob Shapiro:qualities and making the biggest cabinet in Indonesia history and all the pork
Jacob Shapiro:barrels spending and everything else.
Jacob Shapiro:But hey, like you get points for sticking around four decades in both a
Jacob Shapiro:military dictatorship and a democracy.
Jacob Shapiro:I think somebody who knows like how to get power, how to
Jacob Shapiro:exert power and how to survive.
Jacob Shapiro:So I'll take him there.
Jacob Shapiro:He might get pushed down lower.
Jacob Shapiro:Um, some of his early returns on his first,
Marko Papic:well, that's the thing.
Marko Papic:Couple months in power.
Marko Papic:If I could just interject, please.
Marko Papic:I thought about it.
Marko Papic:I thought about it, is just that it's just so hard to follow Joco.
Marko Papic:Widodo.
Marko Papic:It is.
Marko Papic:And if Joco Widodo was here.
Marko Papic:You know, I don't really have honorable mentions, to be honest with you, Jacob.
Marko Papic:I have some that don't make the list and that I think are terrible.
Marko Papic:But many people think they're good.
Marko Papic:But I have this kind of like, oh, I wish they were still in charge.
Marko Papic:Like, yeah, I have a man crush in Mario Draghi.
Marko Papic:What?
Marko Papic:Sumi?
Marko Papic:Uh, and I kind of had a man crush in Joko Widodo, think the man like, did amazing
Marko Papic:stuff and brought Indonesia to the map.
Marko Papic:So now I just, you know, it's kind of like when all these basketball
Marko Papic:players were kind of promoted by the NBA as the next Michael
Marko Papic:Jordan, I ended up not liking them.
Marko Papic:Like I was not a Vince Carter fan, and not just because he stabbed Toronto
Marko Papic:Raptors in the back, but I just didn't like him because the PR machine
Marko Papic:tried to make him the next Michael Jordan, and I just don't think the
Marko Papic:Provo is anywhere close to Joe Dodo.
Marko Papic:So anyways, that's, he is not,
Jacob Shapiro:he is not.
Jacob Shapiro:He and j and he Jacobi did a great job.
Jacob Shapiro:But, but to extend your metaphor to a really painful extent, you know, j Jacobi
Jacob Shapiro:reminds me of, um, I remember like, uh.
Jacob Shapiro:Late nineties still, you know, sports Illustrated was still a thing.
Jacob Shapiro:And I vividly remember the cover of Sports Illustrated when they were like, Jerry
Jacob Shapiro:Stackhouse, the next Michael Jordan.
Jacob Shapiro:I think Jerry Stackhouse is Jae in this metaphor.
Jacob Shapiro:Like everybody was like, eh, and you know, he had a fine career,
Jacob Shapiro:but like, he didn't, he didn't actually fundamentally change things.
Jacob Shapiro:Like, I don't think that, um, I think that now that he's gone, like his
Jacob Shapiro:imprint will not stand the test of time.
Jacob Shapiro:And that's because Indonesia's impossible.
Jacob Shapiro:Um, Indonesia, by all like, is not really a nation state.
Jacob Shapiro:All the different languages, all the different ethnicities, all of the di
Jacob Shapiro:you know, it's literally a bunch of islands that are strung together in
Jacob Shapiro:some kind of strange federal structure.
Jacob Shapiro:Like really, really high degree of difficulty.
Jacob Shapiro:So if Jacobi were around, we up him, but, you know, fail,
Jacob Shapiro:failed to leave as imprint.
Jacob Shapiro:The next two are gonna be controversial for me.
Jacob Shapiro:They're boring.
Jacob Shapiro:Um.
Jacob Shapiro:And I'm sure our leaders from New Zealand and the UK will say, there's no way
Jacob Shapiro:that you should have these leaders here.
Jacob Shapiro:But again, we're talking about would you trade these leaders
Jacob Shapiro:for what I currently have?
Jacob Shapiro:And if you start putting yourself in the shoes of people in Equatorial Guinea
Jacob Shapiro:or Guana, well, actually I shouldn't say Guatemala, but you know, uh, some
Jacob Shapiro:of these other Nicaragua like you would trade for these people in a heartbeat.
Jacob Shapiro:So Christopher Luxon in New Zealand, you get 23 and Kiir
Jacob Shapiro:Starmer 22, just competent.
Jacob Shapiro:They're fine.
Jacob Shapiro:They're not gonna break things.
Jacob Shapiro:They're not gonna change things, but like, just find competent
Jacob Shapiro:leadership that you would trade, uh, if you had sort of a bad time.
Jacob Shapiro:Um, and then coming in at 21, um, I have Cy Ramos of South Africa.
Jacob Shapiro:Um, and I think that he has showed himself to be a pretty adept politician.
Jacob Shapiro:I think he has dealt with Trump, uh, correctly.
Jacob Shapiro:He's in an impossible situation in South Africa and has played
Jacob Shapiro:the game, uh, relatively well.
Jacob Shapiro:Um, so, and I, I think he has, you know, reformist desires, but he's
Jacob Shapiro:sort of crippled by the A NC and some of their, uh, dysfunction.
Jacob Shapiro:But I, he's got a very, very hard job and he's doing a decent job considering the
Jacob Shapiro:challenges that he has in front of him.
Marko Papic:Do you wanna go on or shall we stop here for you?
Jacob Shapiro:Uh, we can go on whatever you want.
Jacob Shapiro:You're the mc?
Jacob Shapiro:Yeah, why don't we, I'm happy to go on.
Marko Papic:Yeah, why don't you complete it, because, you know, I'm at 15 now, so
Marko Papic:why don't you go to your next, uh, okay.
Jacob Shapiro:My next list, 20 through 15 here.
Jacob Shapiro:This, uh, what, what was the name of this category for you?
Marko Papic:Well, I think we've kind of like, uh, moved away from that.
Marko Papic:For me, it was diamonds under pressure, but
Jacob Shapiro:Okay.
Jacob Shapiro:Yeah.
Jacob Shapiro:For me this was like, uh, sort of the same thing, but more like, like tragic flaw.
Jacob Shapiro:Like, these countries are really lucky to have these guys, but they
Jacob Shapiro:have some flaw that just makes it, eh, like you would trade them
Jacob Shapiro:if you could get a better offer.
Jacob Shapiro:So coming in at 20 is Lula de Silva in Brazil.
Marko Papic:Ooh,
Jacob Shapiro:wow.
Jacob Shapiro:Um, wow.
Jacob Shapiro:Yeah.
Marko Papic:First huge disagreement.
Jacob Shapiro:Because you've got him higher up or 'cause
Jacob Shapiro:you've got 'em lowered down
Marko Papic:because, I mean, I don't have 'em at all.
Marko Papic:You know, you don't have
Marko Papic:' Jacob Shapiro: em at all.
Marko Papic:Ooh, no.
Marko Papic:Lula.
Marko Papic:I think that's a mistake and our Brazilian listeners will call you out for it.
Marko Papic:The things that Lula has done over his career are absolutely extraordinary.
Marko Papic:Yes, he has survived.
Marko Papic:Agreed, incredible things.
Marko Papic:Agreed.
Marko Papic:He's at the end of the rope, so maybe like, I penalized him.
Marko Papic:I he would've been further up if this was young Lula, but
Marko Papic:he's done incredible things for
Marko Papic:this.
Marko Papic:I view if this was like first term Lula, he would've been top five.
Marko Papic:I'm hanging down the phone.
Marko Papic:I completely agree with you.
Marko Papic:But this is, this is like, pick picking Michael.
Marko Papic:Uh, sorry.
Marko Papic:This is like picking LeBron James in the top 20 trade value.
Marko Papic:I mean, yeah, he puts up the stats, but you're looking at $56 million 39-year-old
Marko Papic:playing on knees that have seen, they have gone around the world three times.
Marko Papic:You know, like, hey, hey
Jacob Shapiro:La LeBron's still pretty good there.
Jacob Shapiro:Uh, I think it was on Zack Lowe's podcast where they were rumoring,
Jacob Shapiro:you know, uh, the Knicks might trade Enobi and bridges and something else.
Jacob Shapiro:Point.
Jacob Shapiro:It's LeBron.
Jacob Shapiro:LeBron can still take you places
Marko Papic:under Noia bridges.
Marko Papic:IIA Bridges for LeBron James.
Marko Papic:Oh yeah.
Marko Papic:Come on.
Jacob Shapiro:Wonderful player.
Jacob Shapiro:I'll, I'll take Lula.
Jacob Shapiro:I like, I like he's got, he's got a tragic flaw.
Jacob Shapiro:Like he could never, like, you know, most of Brazil's congress is center, right?
Jacob Shapiro:Like his dream of Brazil hasn't necessarily come to pass, but I
Jacob Shapiro:think Jacob's been a skilled leader.
Jacob Shapiro:Yeah.
Marko Papic:Jacob, this is the way I see it.
Marko Papic:Uh, Tupac Shakur's career really goes pre jail, post jail, you know, pre jail.
Marko Papic:He is writing basically American poetry.
Marko Papic:Right?
Marko Papic:Changes.
Marko Papic:Uh, dear mama, my letter to the president, like, just fascinating.
Marko Papic:Post jail.
Marko Papic:Yes.
Marko Papic:Some of that stuff is full of just smoke.
Marko Papic:And anger and it comes outta the gut, but it's like hit them up, you know?
Marko Papic:It's not really, it's not poetry.
Marko Papic:And so Lula to me, same as Tupac, there's pre jail Lula, there's Pogel Lula.
Marko Papic:And I think jail changed him, man.
Marko Papic:I think he just became a bitter populist, and that's just, I think
Marko Papic:that Brazil will be very lucky, uh, to get rid of him in the next election.
Marko Papic:But, and again, that is not to say that I disagree with anything you've said.
Marko Papic:Absolute survivor and his first term, like almost flawless, although
Marko Papic:he was riding the coattails of the Kaari bull market nonetheless.
Marko Papic:No, nonetheless, I agree with you on that.
Marko Papic:Um, but sorry, I interrupted you.
Marko Papic:Well, no, no, no.
Jacob Shapiro:And I, and I often say that Brazil reminds me the
Jacob Shapiro:most of, of any country in the world that reminds me of the United
Jacob Shapiro:States in terms of its politics.
Jacob Shapiro:Brazil reminds me of the United States the most.
Jacob Shapiro:Yes.
Jacob Shapiro:And there's an arc here where Lula becomes the Joe Biden of Brazil, and where Mr.
Jacob Shapiro:Bolsonaro is, is waiting in the wings.
Jacob Shapiro:But, you know, if, if we had been talking about Biden.
Jacob Shapiro:Before it was obvious that he was senile, like 20, 21 version of
Jacob Shapiro:Biden like that, you know, I think that's sort of where I'm going here.
Jacob Shapiro:But anyway, uh, rounding up this section for me.
Jacob Shapiro:So at 19, I hate having him here, but I don't think we can avoid Mr. Victor Orban.
Jacob Shapiro:I.
Marko Papic:Oh wow.
Marko Papic:He has been
Jacob Shapiro:in power for quite some time.
Jacob Shapiro:He is certainly not a liberal.
Jacob Shapiro:Um, but I think also, uh, the, the opposition in Hungary has demonized
Jacob Shapiro:him to an incredible extent.
Jacob Shapiro:He's been ahead on lots of different things when it comes to geopolitics.
Jacob Shapiro:I think he's very, very smart and excellent tactician like I would, and
Jacob Shapiro:he's, he's played the game very well.
Jacob Shapiro:In terms of geopolitics, he saw the world being multipolar.
Jacob Shapiro:Well, before, before I was talking about Multipolarity, Victor Orban
Jacob Shapiro:was preparing for multipolarity, so he gets some props from me there,
Jacob Shapiro:but he's fundamentally a liberal.
Jacob Shapiro:Like there are places there, there are countries that he just can't go
Jacob Shapiro:to because he cannot brook descent.
Jacob Shapiro:He's got that authoritarian instinct in him, so he's got that tragic flaw.
Jacob Shapiro:Uh, 18.
Jacob Shapiro:You can feel the vibe of this category now, Benjamin Netanyahu.
Jacob Shapiro:Another incredible tactician, a politician's politician.
Jacob Shapiro:Nobody better at the footwork like can do it all.
Jacob Shapiro:He is got, he can do the right hand, the left hand.
Jacob Shapiro:He is got the jump hook, he is got the three point shot, everything
Jacob Shapiro:else, and yet cares more about himself than his own country.
Jacob Shapiro:Oh yeah.
Jacob Shapiro:And cares more about own survival than anything else.
Jacob Shapiro:And that narcissism, like it makes him such a great politician and he
Jacob Shapiro:can position his country, you know, especially a country like Israel, which
Jacob Shapiro:isn't polarized and divided like he can be a north star for that type of country.
Jacob Shapiro:But like a deep tragic flaw.
Jacob Shapiro:I don't think's legacy.
Jacob Shapiro:Do you know who's my,
Marko Papic:I think my comp for him in basketball terms would probably
Marko Papic:be Gilbert do arenas honestly.
Marko Papic:There you go.
Jacob Shapiro:Yeah, yeah, yeah.
Jacob Shapiro:Right down to bringing the gun to the locker room and uh, toting it around.
Jacob Shapiro:We've gotta get Iran guys, this is why I've got the gun in the locker room.
Marko Papic:Yeah.
Marko Papic:Dero basically, what's his name?
Marko Papic:Critter's career.
Marko Papic:Critter.
Jacob Shapiro:Yeah.
Jacob Shapiro:Javaris.
Jacob Shapiro:Yeah.
Jacob Shapiro:Whatever.
Jacob Shapiro:Yeah, he went to Georgia Tech.
Jacob Shapiro:I remember that.
Jacob Shapiro:So shout out Georgia Tech.
Jacob Shapiro:Well done David at seven.
Jacob Shapiro:At 17 Javier Millet.
Jacob Shapiro:Okay.
Jacob Shapiro:Uh, I, I, I assume based on what you said, that he's higher up for you,
Jacob Shapiro:but maybe not that much higher up.
Jacob Shapiro:Um, again, I asked, uh, chat GPT for a little help here in sort of,
Jacob Shapiro:uh, what the scouting report would be and it spit back out to me.
Jacob Shapiro:Crypto Ron Paul meets Steve Jobs.
Jacob Shapiro:That was pretty Whoa.
Jacob Shapiro:Steve Jobs.
Marko Papic:Whoa.
Jacob Shapiro:Yeah, but like, and I, I, I wanted to punish him a little bit
Jacob Shapiro:because I think his winning power was actually more a function of Argentinians
Jacob Shapiro:just being fed up and they were looking for the craziest thing possible.
Jacob Shapiro:And so they picked the craziest thing possible.
Jacob Shapiro:But like early returns, he's shown himself to be much more pragmatic than his dead
Jacob Shapiro:dog communing, uh, you know, chainsaw wielding, uh, Mo would suggest I really
Jacob Shapiro:didn't like that weird crypto scam that he was a part of or got taken for a ride for.
Jacob Shapiro:Like, that was a negative signal for me.
Jacob Shapiro:And I think we're about to get into the tough times for him, but I'm
Jacob Shapiro:interested enough that he's there at 17.
Jacob Shapiro:At 16.
Jacob Shapiro:Mr. Erdogan, we've already talked about you, Mr. Sultan, uh, so
Jacob Shapiro:we don't have to do more there.
Jacob Shapiro:And at number 15, the top of this list.
Jacob Shapiro:Again, lucky to have him, but we've got some kind of tragic flaw here.
Jacob Shapiro:This also is about, you know, uh, future projecting Narendra Modi
Jacob Shapiro:comes in right here at 15 for me.
Jacob Shapiro:Mm. Um, yeah, interest if this were, if this were, if this were first term Modi,
Jacob Shapiro:he's maybe Untouchables, like he's maybe at the very, very top of this list, but
Jacob Shapiro:we're, in a third term, we're getting old.
Jacob Shapiro:Have we built something beyond Modi's charisma that
Jacob Shapiro:allows the BJP to go forward?
Jacob Shapiro:I don't know.
Jacob Shapiro:He, he was very ambitious about, have, about his reforms.
Jacob Shapiro:Not a whole heck of a lot have gone through.
Jacob Shapiro:Some of them have, like we've, we've harmonized taxes and we've done some
Jacob Shapiro:good things, but like others we've really haven't made progress on.
Jacob Shapiro:So I think he's, you know, MVP level player, but we're in the twilight of our
Jacob Shapiro:career and we haven't quite gone through.
Jacob Shapiro:Um, some of the things that we thought that some people that need
Jacob Shapiro:to be this high on the list would be, so he comes in at 15 for me.
Marko Papic:So if I was to take a pause here and think about this,
Marko Papic:I'm very surprised we don't have much disagreement at our bottom,
Marko Papic:you know, 10, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7.
Marko Papic:So like in the bottom seven, uh, we don't have that much disagreement.
Marko Papic:Okay?
Marko Papic:I didn't have Provo, uh, I didn't have cc, um, um, or Ali, uh, in Ethiopia,
Marko Papic:so, you know, but like Zer, Peja, Germany, France, Rhonda, similarly
Marko Papic:on my end, I mean, okay, fine.
Marko Papic:Luka, Don Slovenia, sorry, Robert Gob.
Marko Papic:Tus and Christ Christensen, you don't have.
Marko Papic:But not yet.
Marko Papic:Yeah.
Marko Papic:But there was a lot of, uh, agreement, I think at the bottom.
Marko Papic:Yeah.
Marko Papic:Uh, I, I actually have a, oh,
Jacob Shapiro:and I also, I also just wanted to say, I forgot to say
Jacob Shapiro:this, like, 'cause we did say that approval ratings mattered here.
Jacob Shapiro:Norendra Modi has the highest approval rating, uh, of all the
Jacob Shapiro:different, you know, leaders.
Jacob Shapiro:So he's got 77%, uh, melee at 62%.
Jacob Shapiro:Albee has a 54% approval rating.
Jacob Shapiro:So I, I overindexed him for there as well.
Jacob Shapiro:So there's a couple here that got boosts for me based on that.
Marko Papic:So I actually, now that you've run off these out of
Marko Papic:1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, I've got Modi, Tigan, and Millie.
Marko Papic:I have osa, he's coming up.
Marko Papic:Mm-hmm.
Marko Papic:I don't have, uh, UK New Zealand, Brazil.
Marko Papic:Hungary in Israel.
Marko Papic:Um hmm.
Marko Papic:I mean, no offense to the Anglosphere.
Marko Papic:I think, you know, time will tell.
Marko Papic:I just wasn't, uh, particularly impressed.
Marko Papic:I guess I chose Albanese instead of Starr, quite frankly.
Marko Papic:Kind of both came at the same time.
Marko Papic:So, um, I think Albany's job is tougher, quite frankly, but we'll see.
Marko Papic:Lula disagree a lot, and then Bibi and Victor, um, I get it.
Marko Papic:I just, and especially in Ban's case, I feel like I, I should have had him in
Marko Papic:the top 30, so, um, I think you're right.
Marko Papic:But on Bibi, you know, you are absolutely right.
Marko Papic:Just, he puts up incredible statistics.
Marko Papic:He is, uh, an all star.
Marko Papic:He is got the max contract, but he is a chemistry killer and he's a team cancer.
Marko Papic:What I mean by that is that I think that everything that Netanyahu has done
Marko Papic:over the last, you know, five years is ultimately going to, uh, you know, it's
Marko Papic:gonna be something that Israel will be paying, uh, for a very long time.
Marko Papic:So I, I definitely vociferously disagree with that, but that's okay.
Marko Papic:That's good.
Marko Papic:Let's go to the next, uh, uh, next category.
Marko Papic:Okay.
Marko Papic:So this is where I think our disagreements, uh, well, no, no, no.
Marko Papic:I think actually you're gonna agree with a lot of these.
Marko Papic:Uh, number 15 for me is raa.
Marko Papic:This is a deep take.
Marko Papic:Deep take my friend.
Jacob Shapiro:Deep take.
Jacob Shapiro:Yeah.
Marko Papic:Yes.
Marko Papic:Leader of Albania.
Marko Papic:Okay.
Marko Papic:Um, and yes, someone born in Serbia has picked an Albanian leader as top 15.
Marko Papic:Um, that's a head nod to all our Armenian friends who are
Marko Papic:gonna be mad at us about Aliev.
Marko Papic:Just like, Hey, if I can pick Eddie Rama, you know, you guys
Marko Papic:can chill with, uh, aliev.
Marko Papic:Great navigation of a complicated region, uh, has found new sources of
Marko Papic:economic prosperity for Albania, Albania, particularly tourism, just like exploding.
Marko Papic:It's like, it's like what Portugal was like five, 10 years ago.
Marko Papic:That's Albania today.
Marko Papic:Very well done.
Marko Papic:Um, and the other thing is that has great relationship with everyone in
Marko Papic:the region, including with Serbia, like really well done and has
Marko Papic:completed more EU chapters than Serbia.
Marko Papic:So closer to integration than, um, a country that's, I mean, you know,
Marko Papic:like objectively speaking, just I.
Marko Papic:Far more modern economically.
Marko Papic:And from an industrial's perspective, Albania started off much worse in 1990 as
Marko Papic:the co collapse of Communism than Serbia.
Marko Papic:I mean, like, much worse they weren't even aligned with the Soviet Bloc.
Marko Papic:You know, their only ally was like Maoist, China.
Marko Papic:Um, so, uh, really well done, really impressed.
Marko Papic:And by the way, this, this category for me is diamonds under pressure.
Marko Papic:So I'm picking a lot of, uh, leaders who have done something with nothing.
Marko Papic:So there's ra then Cyril Osa, I have him here, so he's 14
Marko Papic:for me and he is 21 for you.
Marko Papic:So pretty much, uh, you know, we're in alignment there in line.
Marko Papic:Yeah.
Marko Papic:13, this is controversial.
Marko Papic:All of our liberal listeners will hate me for it, although quite
Marko Papic:frankly, you pick Bibi and Orban.
Marko Papic:So like, gimme a break, right?
Jacob Shapiro:If, if our liberal listeners are gonna hate us for that,
Jacob Shapiro:there's, there's worse to come guys.
Marko Papic:There's worse to, oh yes, there is, there's
Marko Papic:absolutely worse to come.
Marko Papic:Uh, naive ell it.
Jacob Shapiro:Oh, okay.
Marko Papic:Yes.
Jacob Shapiro:Great.
Marko Papic:Uh, look, PR value alone, like El Salvador,
Marko Papic:we're talking about a guy.
Marko Papic:We're, we're openly discussing somebody who was, who's in charge of
Marko Papic:El Salvador, and not because of some like, you know, terrible civil war.
Marko Papic:So that's number one.
Marko Papic:Second, everyone who's from Central America and Latin America that I know
Marko Papic:and that has been to El Salvador or lived there, basically argues that that
Marko Papic:country was absolutely unlivable before B And he has solved that with brutality,
Marko Papic:absolutely, but also ruthless efficiency.
Marko Papic:And then, um, you know, I mean, uh, perfect man for the era.
Marko Papic:He, uh, he linked his country.
Marko Papic:To Bt C to Bitcoin at 40,000, you know, doesn't look so stupid anymore.
Marko Papic:Uh, he wears futuristic cardillo suits as my dear friend Juan Correra.
Marko Papic:Shout out to him 'cause he, uh, he definitely agreed with
Marko Papic:this pick, um, would say.
Marko Papic:And ultimately, um, I think just, you know, I think there's too
Marko Papic:much indexing on what he's done on Bitcoin, I think not enough
Marko Papic:indexing on what he's done on crime.
Marko Papic:And if you don't like Trump and so you don't like the fact that he's so
Marko Papic:pro-Trump, just look at it this way.
Marko Papic:I mean, he picked the right winner.
Marko Papic:Being a leader of a central American country ultimately comes down to being
Marko Papic:on the right side of the United States of America, because it's the giant in
Marko Papic:the, it's the elephant in the room.
Marko Papic:So I think he's done very well.
Marko Papic:I've got Malay, hold on.
Jacob Shapiro:Wait, wait, wait.
Jacob Shapiro:I, I wanna, I wanna pause you right there, Marco.
Jacob Shapiro:'cause I, I, I don't wanna step on this too much, but we should say that
Jacob Shapiro:maybe Bhel is number one on my list.
Jacob Shapiro:He is UNT tradable.
Jacob Shapiro:He is the top of the, he is the apex for me.
Jacob Shapiro:There
Marko Papic:go.
Marko Papic:Wow.
Marko Papic:Wow.
Marko Papic:I mean, hey, listen, I don't disagree.
Marko Papic:His use of media pr uh, reveals a deep knowledge of where the world is going.
Marko Papic:And, uh, yeah, man, I mean, again, if he, if he can put El Salvador on the map,
Jacob Shapiro:he got rid of crime in El Salvador, period.
Jacob Shapiro:Like, like, they're like, who else is doing that?
Jacob Shapiro:You think?
Jacob Shapiro:You think El Salvador is trading anyone for bouquet on this list?
Jacob Shapiro:No, they're very happy with the guy who gave 'em their country back and allowed
Jacob Shapiro:them to walk in the streets again.
Marko Papic:Wow.
Marko Papic:Yeah.
Marko Papic:My, my dear friend Juan, he's the head of, uh, asset allocation at BC Research and
Marko Papic:also my co-owner of the Cali Fornication basketball team in the JBL Fantasy League.
Marko Papic:He picked him number one, two, and I respect one so much so that
Marko Papic:we share a basketball franchise in the Dreamland universe that
Marko Papic:is the Fantasy Sports League.
Marko Papic:So well done.
Marko Papic:Alright.
Marko Papic:Alright.
Marko Papic:Sorry.
Marko Papic:Uh, I got Malay number 12.
Marko Papic:Uh, I think he's been, uh, amazing.
Marko Papic:Um, unbelievable charisma.
Marko Papic:He managed to get the Argentinians to agree with tightening your belt belts.
Marko Papic:Your point about Argentina was, at this point anyways, that's true, but he's also
Marko Papic:managed to do it in a correct sequence by not opening up the capital account
Marko Papic:too quickly, which was very important.
Marko Papic:Uh, making sure that the reforms first take hold and then discussing
Marko Papic:about, uh, lessening capital controls something that mockery got wrong.
Marko Papic:So mockery got the sequencing wrong.
Marko Papic:Mm-hmm.
Marko Papic:Number 11, Abdullah II of Jordan.
Marko Papic:Mm-hmm.
Marko Papic:The degree of difficulty, the diff degree of difficulty for a leading
Marko Papic:Jordan right now is absolutely insane.
Marko Papic:Um, this is, uh, you know, this is like a basketball player that just
Marko Papic:pulls his crappy team into the playoffs as a seven seed all by himself.
Marko Papic:Um, and quite frankly, uh, the security of Israel is more tied to
Marko Papic:Abdullah II's leadership of Jordan.
Marko Papic:To what Benjamin Netanyahu is doing, quite frankly.
Marko Papic:So, uh, Israelis should praise him for his cool and collected demeanor that yes,
Marko Papic:it's become rhetorically increasingly anti-Israeli, but you have to sympathize
Marko Papic:for him, as we have talked about before.
Marko Papic:So that's my number 11.
Jacob Shapiro:Alright, my next, my next list takes me from 14 to seven.
Jacob Shapiro:So this is a big one and for me, I thought of this, um, category as
Jacob Shapiro:I'm hanging up, but not right away.
Jacob Shapiro:Like, I'm gonna listen for a little bit and then I'm gonna hang up.
Jacob Shapiro:Uh, so some of these are rising stars.
Jacob Shapiro:Some of these are high functioning technocrats.
Jacob Shapiro:Some of these are elite, uh, elite lieutenants.
Jacob Shapiro:And I think the ones that will be most controversial are 14 and 13.
Jacob Shapiro:'cause the rest are ones that we've mostly already talked about at 14.
Jacob Shapiro:Uh, SHA Kat MiEV of Uzbekistan.
Jacob Shapiro:Um.
Jacob Shapiro:This is where I'm gonna go, like really deep.
Jacob Shapiro:I'm gonna cut really deep here.
Jacob Shapiro:But this is a guy who took over for one of the most retrograde dictatorships in the
Jacob Shapiro:post-Soviet world, um, and has, I mean, he has not made it a democracy, but he
Jacob Shapiro:has opened up and liberalized Uzbekistan to a degree that nobody thought possible.
Jacob Shapiro:He's been able to keep Uzbekistan out of the clutches of Islamic
Jacob Shapiro:fundamentalism and everything else.
Jacob Shapiro:He has not gone too far down the road with, uh, Russia or
Jacob Shapiro:with China or the United States.
Jacob Shapiro:He has played all these things different, uh, very well.
Jacob Shapiro:Um, I was in Tash Kent in 2019.
Jacob Shapiro:Uh, you know, uh, everybody there was of course going to
Jacob Shapiro:make it seem like they loved him.
Jacob Shapiro:But everyone I talked to from Uzbekistan, when they think about MOV before and re
Jacob Shapiro:you have now, they're like, he's great.
Jacob Shapiro:We love him.
Jacob Shapiro:He's competent.
Jacob Shapiro:My.
Jacob Shapiro:Uber driver to JFK Airport two weeks ago was from Uzbekistan.
Jacob Shapiro:And when I, when I asked him about Shaka Zi, yeah.
Jacob Shapiro:First he was like, I can't believe you know who that is, and let
Jacob Shapiro:me tell you how great he is.
Jacob Shapiro:We are so happy to have a competent leader at the head of the Uzbekistan state.
Jacob Shapiro:So that's where he, that's
Marko Papic:important.
Marko Papic:That's an important empiric.
Marko Papic:Yeah.
Marko Papic:Yeah.
Jacob Shapiro:Um, 13.
Jacob Shapiro:This, my bias is getting involved here, but she, I'm a really big
Jacob Shapiro:fan of Shigeru Ishiba in Japan.
Marko Papic:Hmm.
Jacob Shapiro:Interesting.
Jacob Shapiro:Um, he's, wow.
Jacob Shapiro:I have a soft spot for him.
Jacob Shapiro:Um, I, I talked to our friend Tobias Harris, not the basketball player,
Jacob Shapiro:but uh, the Great Japan analyst, uh, and talked about Ishiba as sort of a
Jacob Shapiro:tragic hero, heroic figure who's gonna pursue something and not get there,
Jacob Shapiro:but that will make him all the more of a Japanese hero because of it.
Jacob Shapiro:Um, yeah.
Jacob Shapiro:I, I just, I like his policies and I like what he's trying to do.
Jacob Shapiro:I'll also say like, he came in in a minority government with really,
Jacob Shapiro:really low approval ratings.
Jacob Shapiro:But he's getting stuff done and his approval ratings are slowly ticking up.
Jacob Shapiro:So if he inherits this mess in Japanese politics and takes it to a position
Jacob Shapiro:where he's in charge and he's pushing back against the United States and
Jacob Shapiro:the trade war, and he is trying to figure out the balance between China
Jacob Shapiro:and the United States and what's going on with Taiwan, like a very,
Jacob Shapiro:very high degree of difficulty.
Jacob Shapiro:And I think he's doing a great job.
Jacob Shapiro:Um, and then the rest, the rest of rounding, rounding up this list,
Jacob Shapiro:uh, here is Met Freson at 12.
Jacob Shapiro:Oh, okay.
Jacob Shapiro:Here is at 11.
Jacob Shapiro:We've got, uh, I don't know how to pronounce her name actually, but it's
Jacob Shapiro:the leader of Estonia, Kaja, Kaja.
Jacob Shapiro:I don't know.
Jacob Shapiro:Kaja, you know.
Jacob Shapiro:I don't know, but she comes in here as well.
Jacob Shapiro:Um, I had your Swiss, uh, Swiss leader at number 10.
Jacob Shapiro:Uh, again, I went to chat GPT for this, and they described
Jacob Shapiro:her as Switzerland's Popovich.
Jacob Shapiro:That sounded pretty good to me.
Jacob Shapiro:That was enough to convince me that she belongs there.
Jacob Shapiro:Uh, but I take your point that that's sort of a boring pick, like, uh, anyway,
Jacob Shapiro:but I, I had her there at 10 and then Albanese at nine, Kearney at eight, and
Jacob Shapiro:Lawrence Wong coming in at number seven.
Jacob Shapiro:So all countries that I think have high degrees of difficulty,
Jacob Shapiro:really, really skilled leadership.
Jacob Shapiro:Some of them are technocrats, some of them are rising stars.
Jacob Shapiro:Some of them just know how to do things.
Jacob Shapiro:But all people that, you know, you'll listen about trading, but ultimately,
Jacob Shapiro:like you're gonna look at what you got and be like, I'm pretty good.
Jacob Shapiro:I don't think I need to make a trade here because this person has
Jacob Shapiro:got the situation under control.
Marko Papic:Yeah.
Marko Papic:So Singapore, Canada, and Australia.
Marko Papic:7, 8, 9. Interesting.
Marko Papic:Switzerland, 10, uh, Estonia 11.
Marko Papic:Um, yeah, it was tough for me to give these countries that, uh, that
Marko Papic:put them that high because they're just such well run countries.
Marko Papic:You know, it goes back to that Warren Buffet quote, I want to invest in
Marko Papic:countries that even an idiot could run.
Marko Papic:So to what extent does it matter who's in charge of them?
Marko Papic:But I think mm-hmm.
Marko Papic:Uh, it's fair.
Marko Papic:I mean, I have three of them there.
Marko Papic:I don't have Estonia and Switzerland, but, um, you know, I, I don't disagree.
Marko Papic:Japan is interesting.
Marko Papic:Uh, we started doing this a month ago.
Marko Papic:And I should have updated my list because the way that Japanese trade negotiations
Marko Papic:with us have gone is very interesting and suggests to me that you are right.
Marko Papic:There is something in Ishiba that's really interesting.
Marko Papic:I mean, they've really played hardball to the extent that I
Marko Papic:think no other country really has.
Marko Papic:Yeah.
Marko Papic:And so, and,
Jacob Shapiro:and his approval ratings were in the toilet a month ago.
Jacob Shapiro:He is slowly starting to crawl out of the, out of the basement.
Marko Papic:Super respect, all of that.
Marko Papic:And I think that you've, uh, you picked somebody who's had a tough time
Marko Papic:and, and their their real potential.
Marko Papic:I agree with you, Uzbekistan.
Marko Papic:Um, I thought about it actually, uh, shockingly.
Marko Papic:But I picked somebody else in the region.
Marko Papic:Okay.
Marko Papic:Uh, I've, I picked somebody else and I'll, I'll get to that because
Marko Papic:he's very high up on my list.
Marko Papic:Alright.
Marko Papic:So, so I respect that.
Marko Papic:Uh, I just didn't think that two central Asian countries really made sense.
Marko Papic:It was like two stands, like, come on guys.
Marko Papic:And if you, you know, if you count Jose Peja is sort of like part of that
Marko Papic:whole post-Soviet space, it would've been a little bit too much and weird.
Marko Papic:So I, I, I, I, you know, head tip to you.
Marko Papic:I think you picked really well.
Marko Papic:Alright, close it out.
Marko Papic:Let's close it out, my friend.
Marko Papic:Um, number 10, Pedro Sanchez, Spain.
Marko Papic:I think we're gonna disagree on this.
Marko Papic:We talked about
Jacob Shapiro:it.
Jacob Shapiro:We are, we are chat.
Jacob Shapiro:GPT kept on saying, do you want Pedro Sanchez on your list?
Jacob Shapiro:And I kept saying, no chat.
Jacob Shapiro:GPT get this Spanish incompetent guy off of my list.
Jacob Shapiro:I don't want him tell me why he is there.
Marko Papic:Well, look, I mean, uh, you haven't heard anything about
Marko Papic:separatism in Spain for a while.
Marko Papic:Uh, and I think that's important.
Marko Papic:Um, I think he's carved out a very bold foreign policy, uh, you know, led on,
Marko Papic:uh, Israel, uh, in a very, in a way that obviously nobody who is pro-Israel
Marko Papic:is gonna like, but differentiated Spanish foreign Pol policy for the
Marko Papic:first time since like the eighties.
Marko Papic:So that was interesting as well.
Marko Papic:And then ultimately the economy is extremely successful, uh, is
Marko Papic:absolutely crushing the region.
Marko Papic:Uh, so he is high on my list now.
Marko Papic:Is it because of him, the economy?
Marko Papic:No, but he hasn't gotten in the way and that is important, especially in Europe.
Marko Papic:So he's very high on my list just because Spain is the best performing
Marko Papic:economy effectively in the, your area.
Marko Papic:Um, and then we get into four names.
Marko Papic:I feel like you're not going to agree with based on our previous discussions.
Marko Papic:Um, let's put it this way, uh.
Marko Papic:Like, think of us as different coaching systems.
Marko Papic:You know, you might be modern, you know, uh, spread offense where you
Marko Papic:just want to do layups and three pointers and you believe in analytics.
Marko Papic:And I'm an old school guy who wants a post play.
Jacob Shapiro:So I'm
Marko Papic:gonna go,
Jacob Shapiro:I'm, I'm, I'm more like the triangle offense and I
Jacob Shapiro:want the guy with the drum and the corner and the piece pipe.
Jacob Shapiro:I wanna do Phil Jackson's version of coaching.
Jacob Shapiro:That's me, right?
Marko Papic:That's you.
Marko Papic:Okay.
Marko Papic:Well, I'm going with like just old school, like post players.
Marko Papic:These guys are not in favor, no one is going to probably agree with this.
Marko Papic:Uh, but if you go to any one of these countries, just like your
Marko Papic:example with Uzbekistan, you go to any of these countries, you're
Marko Papic:gonna find nothing but support.
Marko Papic:And yes, maybe that's because people who don't support them are in jail.
Marko Papic:Maybe.
Marko Papic:Maybe, but I would say it genuine.
Marko Papic:Some,
Jacob Shapiro:some people need to be in jail, you know?
Marko Papic:Alright, number nine.
Marko Papic:So this is top 10.
Marko Papic:Sultan.
Marko Papic:Binta Al Sayid.
Marko Papic:Oman.
Marko Papic:Oman baby.
Marko Papic:You love Oman.
Marko Papic:Yeah.
Marko Papic:Transformation of the country is stunning.
Marko Papic:I mean, we're talking a country that, you know, didn't have basic, basic services
Marko Papic:like that, needed to hire like accountants to set up its sovereign wealth fund.
Marko Papic:And, um, it's really harder to find a smaller country that's
Marko Papic:doing more for global peace.
Marko Papic:It's hosted a number of negotiations between other powers, not because
Marko Papic:they're just a nice beach side location, but because they've made an effort to
Marko Papic:improve the situation in the Middle East.
Marko Papic:Then after that, Sheikh Mohammed bin, Al U ae transformed the
Marko Papic:country into what it is today.
Marko Papic:Incredible, incredible effort.
Marko Papic:It used to just be oil and tourism in Dubai.
Marko Papic:It's not just that anymore.
Marko Papic:It's starting to rival Hong Kong and Singapore as the alternative for
Marko Papic:emerging market financial capital flows.
Marko Papic:Abu Dhabi is absolutely exploding as a financial capital.
Marko Papic:There's advanced manufacturing in the country.
Marko Papic:Do you know that They make air airplane parts?
Marko Papic:It's part of the supply chain.
Marko Papic:Uh, it has AI advances.
Marko Papic:It's, um, it's becoming a very, very interesting place.
Marko Papic:And you mentioned something about city states in a couple of, uh, episodes.
Marko Papic:Mm-hmm.
Marko Papic:You know, like this is, this is interesting.
Marko Papic:And the application of AI in UAE is going to be very, very dramatic
Marko Papic:and I think quite interesting.
Marko Papic:So UAE makes my eight spots.
Marko Papic:Then this is where all the liberals that are listening that are still here.
Marko Papic:You know, I mean, uh, for all your liberals listening, just remember.
Marko Papic:Jacob Shapiro picked Orban.
Marko Papic:Okay.
Marko Papic:Yeah.
Marko Papic:I'm also
Jacob Shapiro:not saying, I, I'm not saying I wanna live
Jacob Shapiro:under the thumb of these guys.
Jacob Shapiro:We're just talking about in the abstract of who would you trade leaders for.
Jacob Shapiro:You know, I genuinely, like, I'm not trying to live under naive b even
Jacob Shapiro:though he is number one on the list.
Marko Papic:I genuinely would pick up the phone and trade our leader of
Marko Papic:any country for Mohammed bin Salman.
Marko Papic:Did t taunt with Iran.
Marko Papic:Just said, you know what?
Marko Papic:I just really don't care about the Shia Sunni split, bro.
Marko Papic:So you can have whatever you want because I care about the socioeconomic
Marko Papic:reorientation of the entire country.
Marko Papic:We've talked about this, uh, uh, before, uh, you know, he might be number
Marko Papic:one on my list, but I do think the Khashoggi affair was a huge on goal.
Marko Papic:But since then, I mean, if you look at where Saudi Arabia was in 2015 on any
Marko Papic:number of indicators and where it is today, it is absolutely night and day.
Marko Papic:It was practically defenseless.
Marko Papic:It was mirrored in endless wars.
Marko Papic:It stuck in a fundamentalist doom loop.
Marko Papic:The country has been absolutely transformed.
Marko Papic:And uh, what I like about it is that he has big dreams,
Marko Papic:you know, like, like Biggie.
Marko Papic:He's got big dreams.
Marko Papic:Is he gonna accomplish them?
Marko Papic:Yeah, probably not.
Marko Papic:But when your North Star is actually a big dream, you might get 30% of
Marko Papic:it and still improve the country.
Marko Papic:And, you know what, who has big dreams anymore on our list?
Marko Papic:Tell me who the dreamers are.
Marko Papic:What's Benjamin Netanyahu's dream other than not going to jail, you know?
Marko Papic:So Mohammed bin Salman very high on my list.
Jacob Shapiro:Uh, yeah, Benjamin Netanyahu's dream, by the way.
Jacob Shapiro:He, he, uh, you're forgetting ice cream gate where he, uh, got held
Jacob Shapiro:up on corruption issues because his office was spending over 400, the
Jacob Shapiro:equivalent of $400 a month just on specialty ice cream for his wife.
Jacob Shapiro:So he dreams of ice cream and bombing Iran.
Jacob Shapiro:There you go.
Marko Papic:That's awesome.
Marko Papic:Well, well done.
Marko Papic:And then number six, uh, you know, it's interesting that I took this
Marko Papic:leader over Mohammed bin Salman.
Marko Papic:You could say that.
Marko Papic:Uh.
Marko Papic:The degree of difficulty in the delta in Saudi Arabia is greater, but I'm picking
Marko Papic:King Mohamed, the sixth of Morocco, plus his Prime Minister, Aziz Hanush.
Marko Papic:Uh, the socioeconomic transformation of Morocco is al also incredible.
Marko Papic:Uh, avoided the Arab Spring, but it's really the integration into the
Marko Papic:supply chains that is very important.
Marko Papic:And there is, I think, some symmetry of having Morocco six in Spain, 10
Marko Papic:because they're increasingly becoming really, uh, Europe's manufacturing hub.
Marko Papic:The integration between the two is quite interesting.
Marko Papic:Mm-hmm.
Marko Papic:Um, also, also this is a country that's effectively doubled its territory.
Marko Papic:You know, if you wanna compare King Muhammad the six to Vladimir Putin,
Marko Papic:Vladimir Putin's got nothing on annexation because Morocco has effectively
Marko Papic:quietly annexed Western Sahara and absolutely nobody has said anything.
Marko Papic:Now that's been the case for a very long time, but it's pretty much
Marko Papic:now over and it's failed complete.
Marko Papic:Uh, also great place to visit and, uh, has really navigated a lot of
Marko Papic:the problems over the last 25 years.
Marko Papic:I think Morocco is where the rest of the GCC is headed, and that's why you should
Marko Papic:be very bullish on the Middle East.
Marko Papic:So I'm gonna stop here and then, uh, yeah, any reactions, any thoughts?
Jacob Shapiro:Uh, we're closer than you think.
Jacob Shapiro:Uh, this is why we're cousins.
Jacob Shapiro:Uh, on my list.
Jacob Shapiro:I like you, uh, the four leaders so far that you have, that I should have had.
Jacob Shapiro:Anwar Ibrahim, Abdu ii, IDI Rama, and the Sultan of, uh.
Jacob Shapiro:Oman, uh, whatever his name is.
Jacob Shapiro:I don't know his name, sorry, Saltan of Oman.
Jacob Shapiro:I just remember Salton caboose.
Jacob Shapiro:I, I remember joking about him over back in our Strat four days.
Jacob Shapiro:But I think all those are worthy of inclusion.
Jacob Shapiro:I'll give you my seven through one and you'll see that I actually have
Jacob Shapiro:taken both MBS and MBZ ahead of you, uh, coming in at three and four.
Marko Papic:Whoa.
Marko Papic:Wow.
Marko Papic:Yeah, I knows.
Marko Papic:Oh, I'm shocked.
Marko Papic:Surpris, isn't
Jacob Shapiro:it?
Jacob Shapiro:I'm shocked.
Jacob Shapiro:You're shocked.
Jacob Shapiro:I know I talk a lot of shit about the golf here on this podcast, but here I am
Jacob Shapiro:with, uh, with those two at the very top.
Jacob Shapiro:So rounding out my top seven here.
Jacob Shapiro:Um, and then, well, no, I, I have like 10, 10 or 12 minutes
Jacob Shapiro:maybe we get through the top.
Jacob Shapiro:And do we come back and discuss this more after we've had time to study?
Jacob Shapiro:We, I don't know.
Jacob Shapiro:You'll tell me.
Jacob Shapiro:Okay.
Jacob Shapiro:We do.
Jacob Shapiro:So number seven, this might be your number one.
Jacob Shapiro:Uh, but this is Georgia Maloney's territory for me.
Jacob Shapiro:She comes in at number seven.
Jacob Shapiro:I'm sure you're gonna wanna talk about her.
Jacob Shapiro:She's, I think she's been very, very effective.
Jacob Shapiro:Uh, number six, Xi Jinping.
Jacob Shapiro:I'm impressed, Xi I've always liked Xi Jinping.
Jacob Shapiro:I've always overindexed on his leadership.
Jacob Shapiro:I think he's done an incredible job with a very, very difficult situation.
Jacob Shapiro:You wanna talk about degrees of difficulty?
Jacob Shapiro:I mean, he's the Mao Deng Xiaoping of this era.
Jacob Shapiro:He's trying to absolutely transform China.
Jacob Shapiro:He's gotten a long way there.
Jacob Shapiro:He's reforming the PLA.
Jacob Shapiro:He's moving supply side reforms.
Jacob Shapiro:Like nobody has a higher degree of difficulty on this list than Xi Jinping.
Jacob Shapiro:And the fact that he's still alive and still kicking and there's no
Jacob Shapiro:opposition and there's no opposition.
Jacob Shapiro:Don't listen to the annual spate of rumors that Xi Jinping is on the way
Jacob Shapiro:out, which is happening this week.
Jacob Shapiro:I guess we needed something in the slow news cycle after Israel, Iran War.
Jacob Shapiro:Xi Jinping comes here.
Jacob Shapiro:Um.
Jacob Shapiro:Number five.
Jacob Shapiro:This one I bet is not an, well, I don't know.
Jacob Shapiro:Maybe she's on your list.
Jacob Shapiro:Maybe she's not.
Jacob Shapiro:Uh, Claudia Shane Baum in Mexico, I think has been incredibly impressive.
Jacob Shapiro:I've described her as sort of the Anglo Merkel of the 2020s.
Jacob Shapiro:She reminds me of Anglo Merkel.
Jacob Shapiro:She's a scientist engineer.
Jacob Shapiro:Yes, she's taking over from Alos populism, but she's dealt with Trump masterfully.
Jacob Shapiro:I think she's doing a great job with Mexican politics, her
Jacob Shapiro:approval ratings through the roof, like she's putting in good work.
Jacob Shapiro:Um, three and four.
Jacob Shapiro:I told you I've got MBZ at number four MBS at number three.
Jacob Shapiro:And my top two.
Jacob Shapiro:Number two, I, I wonder if he'll push back against this, and this is probably
Jacob Shapiro:my bias creeping in, but give me Mr. Zelensky in Ukraine at number two,
Jacob Shapiro:what he's been able to do for Ukraine.
Jacob Shapiro:He's gone through some ups and downs.
Jacob Shapiro:He's still kicking, Ukraine is still here.
Jacob Shapiro:Ukraine is in an incredible position because of him.
Jacob Shapiro:I think that Ukraine is not here today in its current form.
Jacob Shapiro:If he's not out in the streets with the cameras, like manipulating the media
Jacob Shapiro:the way that he did, like, I think he really was an indispensable man
Jacob Shapiro:at a, at a really critical time for a country that was at existential risk.
Jacob Shapiro:And I give him extra props for that.
Jacob Shapiro:Maybe he's a church alien figure.
Jacob Shapiro:Maybe as soon as the war's over, he gets put back out to pasture or.
Jacob Shapiro:Face back onto TV as a comedian.
Jacob Shapiro:I like that he is a comedian.
Jacob Shapiro:Like that works for me.
Jacob Shapiro:Um, agreed.
Jacob Shapiro:Also, you know, a fellow, you know, according to Putin,
Jacob Shapiro:a Jewish fascist, so fine.
Jacob Shapiro:Like, let the Jew pick a Jewish fascist at number two.
Jacob Shapiro:And I've already told you that ye boule is my number one.
Jacob Shapiro:You can't resist it.
Jacob Shapiro:I don't wanna live under him.
Jacob Shapiro:He's incredibly a liberal.
Jacob Shapiro:I bet that 30 years from now, you know, he'll, he's like, uh, the
Jacob Shapiro:metaphor might be de nearest Arian, like good intentions, did a whole
Jacob Shapiro:bunch of things, but eventually lived long enough to be queen of the ashes.
Jacob Shapiro:Like he, he has that darkness to him.
Jacob Shapiro:He's got the dragon inside of him, but right now he's riding high and nobody
Jacob Shapiro:has done more with, less than bouquet.
Jacob Shapiro:Um, right down to the Bitcoin bet.
Jacob Shapiro:So there's my list.
Marko Papic:Well, I mean, there's a lot of agreement here.
Marko Papic:We've got El Salvador, we've got UAE, Saudi Arabia, um, Italy, Mexico.
Marko Papic:I'm, I'm about to reveal my top five, um, one disagreement I have here with you.
Marko Papic:Uh, so Ukraine, I have, uh, actually both Zelensky and Trump
Marko Papic:in a special category of their own.
Jacob Shapiro:As, as you can tell.
Jacob Shapiro:By the way, Mr. Trump not on my list.
Jacob Shapiro:I was curious if he would get on your list.
Marko Papic:Uh, he's not on my list either.
Marko Papic:Um, you know, I, I think that President Trump has done a lot of very
Marko Papic:oppressive things, but is he a product of being the leader of the best?
Marko Papic:Like, could he have done what he did with El Salvador?
Marko Papic:You know, that's the question that I think I, I struggle with.
Marko Papic:And similarly, uh, Zelensky was an absolutely terrible leader before the war.
Marko Papic:Mm-hmm.
Marko Papic:Absolutely terrible.
Marko Papic:So, you know, like, and even during the war, I would say that the first 12
Marko Papic:months of Zelensky leadership in the war from February, 2022 to, let's say
Marko Papic:September, 2023, admirable, amazing.
Marko Papic:Uh, I think he's made several incredibly terrifyingly terrible military
Marko Papic:strategic decisions, you know, for the past, like two years straight.
Marko Papic:And so like, you are basically giving him the number two spot
Marko Papic:for like 18 months of his rule.
Marko Papic:I am, and it is, and listen, incredible.
Marko Papic:18 months of his rule, but like that's, you know, that's like, I, I don't know
Marko Papic:what to do with him because of that.
Marko Papic:Um, it's, it's
Jacob Shapiro:kinda, it's kinda like, it's, it's kinda like Brandon Roy, like
Jacob Shapiro:when he was on the floor, he was one of the best, but he doesn't have any knees.
Jacob Shapiro:He has no cartilage in his knees, so he can't play basketball.
Marko Papic:You know, a better, a better example would be somebody
Marko Papic:who catches fire in the playoffs and then gets a huge contract afterwards.
Marko Papic:You know, you're like, oh my God, look at what they did in these two series.
Marko Papic:Yeah.
Marko Papic:But maybe that's because they weren't guarding him.
Marko Papic:Uh, I just, that's why he's not on my list.
Marko Papic:But I, you know, respect that 18 months of dogged perseverance.
Marko Papic:Um, China, big disagreement with you there.
Jacob Shapiro:Not on your list.
Jacob Shapiro:No,
Marko Papic:no.
Marko Papic:Xi bing is not on my list.
Marko Papic:That's a
Jacob Shapiro:huge disagreement.
Jacob Shapiro:Wow.
Jacob Shapiro:Well,
Marko Papic:and here's why.
Marko Papic:You know, I loved what you said about Uzbekistan's president.
Marko Papic:Remind me of the name again.
Jacob Shapiro:Shav Kat, me Zev.
Jacob Shapiro:I only had to practice that about 30 times before we hit record.
Marko Papic:And I apologize for not remembering the name.
Marko Papic:I did honestly take a look at Uzbekistan as one of my potentials.
Marko Papic:Didn't choose it, but what you said was interesting.
Marko Papic:You talked to some random Uzbekistani taxi driver and they loved him.
Marko Papic:You know, and, and I bet you if you poll people into Uzbekistan,
Marko Papic:legitimately they would agree.
Marko Papic:I don't think that's the case with China.
Marko Papic:And here's why.
Marko Papic:He didn't take people outta poverty.
Marko Papic:Preceding leaders did.
Marko Papic:By 2012, China was what it is today.
Marko Papic:He unnecessarily, unnecessarily provoked the sleeping giant, which
Marko Papic:is the United States of America.
Marko Papic:That was not necessary in 2020.
Marko Papic:In 2012, you could have waited until 20 20, 20 25, 20 30.
Marko Papic:When you have far more ability to kind of challenge the us, I
Marko Papic:think that was a huge on goal.
Marko Papic:Jacob, there was no need for China to start talking about nine dash
Marko Papic:lines or South China Sea in 2012.
Marko Papic:It just, why?
Marko Papic:Why wake up the United States of America itching to pivot out of the Middle East?
Marko Papic:Why alert them to the fact that yes, you have designs on regional hegemony
Marko Papic:and then finally, I cannot believe you have him this high because of how he has
Marko Papic:crushed private sector dynamism in China.
Marko Papic:And I don't wanna sound like some aire, you know, like pro business guy, you
Marko Papic:know, like who just cares about that?
Marko Papic:But that's a huge, that's something that China genuinely was
Marko Papic:crushing and was getting there.
Marko Papic:And some of his structural reforms.
Marko Papic:I mean, certainly he has put the weight of the government behind certain sectors.
Marko Papic:God bless you.
Marko Papic:But anybody can do that.
Marko Papic:My concern is that there's been a little bit too much opposition to private
Marko Papic:sector entrepreneurship and innovation.
Jacob Shapiro:Um, yeah, the, the, I'll, I'll push back in this way.
Jacob Shapiro:I think the, the thing that we really disagree on is that I think
Jacob Shapiro:that he is popular to the average rank and file Chinese person.
Jacob Shapiro:And I think that, not because he made them prosperous, but
Jacob Shapiro:because he went after corruption.
Jacob Shapiro:I think there was a huge divide where parts of China got incredibly rich.
Jacob Shapiro:We agree.
Jacob Shapiro:And he came, he came in and said, bogie la the party's over.
Jacob Shapiro:And you guys in Shanghai driving around the Lamborghinis, while
Jacob Shapiro:people are making less than $5 a day in the interior, the party's over.
Jacob Shapiro:Like we are go and military guys who you're siphoning off all this money.
Jacob Shapiro:Local governments who are doing all these things to siphon off money
Jacob Shapiro:for that's over, the party is over.
Jacob Shapiro:We're going back to Moral Rectitude and Xi Jing principles and Little
Jacob Shapiro:Red Books and everything else.
Jacob Shapiro:Like, and I think that he's gotten popular for that.
Jacob Shapiro:The others, I agree with you.
Jacob Shapiro:I mean, I would quibble with, I don't think his problem was 2012.
Jacob Shapiro:His problem was the wolf warrior diplomacy with 2017.
Jacob Shapiro:And to his credit, I. Has fixed it.
Jacob Shapiro:He got rid of the Wolf Warrior warriors, he's like taken it back.
Jacob Shapiro:Now, that was a mistake, but like he showed the ability to
Jacob Shapiro:survive the mistake and twist it.
Jacob Shapiro:Private sector Diamond Dyna is sure, like, but I think he's done as good
Jacob Shapiro:a job as he possibly can in China, and I think he is the one that said,
Jacob Shapiro:Hey, get ready for L-shaped growth.
Jacob Shapiro:We are gonna have to go through this at some point we're we're gonna let
Jacob Shapiro:the real estate bubble collapse.
Jacob Shapiro:I know, but even there, he's gonna have to manage it.
Jacob Shapiro:Like, you know,
Marko Papic:but even there, Jacob, like we, he's making the same
Marko Papic:mistake that Angela Merkel, Obama Tea Party, everyone in the West made.
Marko Papic:So I don't wanna like, like be too negative on this, but there is a
Marko Papic:solution to a real estate crisis.
Marko Papic:Richard Coup has told us what that is and it's stimulating GDP growth.
Marko Papic:Now I, again, he's falling into the same mistake everyone else did.
Marko Papic:But all he needs to do is look at the west and how long the de-leveraging
Marko Papic:was prolonged because the US government and the European governments did not
Marko Papic:step in with fiscal support to know that he is making the same mistake.
Marko Papic:So on that front, I think the fact that he has been so astir is in an incorrect move.
Marko Papic:But
Jacob Shapiro:yeah, but I, I think that's 'cause it's the right
Jacob Shapiro:move for the Chinese context.
Jacob Shapiro:He warned them in 2019, do not do this.
Jacob Shapiro:This is a red line.
Jacob Shapiro:I am not going to bail you out.
Jacob Shapiro:And then they did it.
Jacob Shapiro:And so he had to follow through and say, look, we are just not
Jacob Shapiro:gonna backstop you forever.
Jacob Shapiro:We need to be more productive.
Jacob Shapiro:Like we need to be more efficient with our capital.
Jacob Shapiro:He's not gonna
Marko Papic:Right, but he's not going to be more productive if he's
Marko Papic:messing with also the private markets and private businesses and private
Jacob Shapiro:entrepreneurs.
Jacob Shapiro:That's, that's, that's true.
Jacob Shapiro:I have, so it's, I have nothing to, I can't argue with you
Marko Papic:there, but it's, it's, look, it's not a big deal.
Marko Papic:Uh, he is on my list of like the people I left out along with, uh, some others
Marko Papic:that we can talk about next time.
Marko Papic:I'm gonna finish off my list.
Marko Papic:Uh, this has gone on long enough.
Marko Papic:The next one, first of all, if you have any reactions to
Marko Papic:our list, send them to us.
Marko Papic:Yes.
Marko Papic:Um, you can use, uh, maritz geopolitical alpha.com or Jacob.
Marko Papic:What's
Jacob Shapiro:jacob@jacobshapiro.com.
Jacob Shapiro:I'll put them both in the intro, but yes.
Marko Papic:Okay.
Marko Papic:So let's, uh, let's get some, uh, commentary.
Marko Papic:That's, that's cool.
Marko Papic:Uh, we're also, what I'm gonna do with Jacob is I'm gonna use a
Marko Papic:sophisticated mathematical formula to blend our lists together.
Jacob Shapiro:Oh, cool.
Marko Papic:You know?
Marko Papic:Great.
Marko Papic:So we'll know who's number one.
Jacob Shapiro:Great.
Marko Papic:Alright, I'm gonna round off the top.
Marko Papic:Um, I think you're gonna love my top first of all, number five, Kasim Jomar to baby.
Marko Papic:Yeah.
Marko Papic:Yeah.
Marko Papic:I didn't choose Uzbekistan.
Marko Papic:I didn't choose Uzbekistan.
Marko Papic:Why?
Marko Papic:Uh, first of all, navigating geopolitics very successfully.
Marko Papic:The reason Uzbekistan can ride, uh, quietly and not pick sides is because
Marko Papic:nobody truly cares about Uzbekistan.
Marko Papic:Like, let's be very clear.
Marko Papic:Neither do including Russians.
Marko Papic:They're like, ah, whatever.
Marko Papic:Like, sure.
Marko Papic:Yeah.
Marko Papic:You know, sorry for destroying your environment with cotton production.
Marko Papic:Moving on.
Marko Papic:Kazakhstan.
Marko Papic:The Russians care about Kazakhstan, they care about
Marko Papic:Kazakhstan, and so do the Chinese.
Marko Papic:And yet what the Q has managed to do is perhaps the greatest
Marko Papic:balancing act in all of the world.
Marko Papic:Yes, I'm gonna go it that far.
Marko Papic:He managed to call in Russian peacekeepers when there was, uh,
Marko Papic:to call an uprising against him.
Marko Papic:Mm-hmm.
Marko Papic:But since then, since then, he has managed to avoid picking sides in
Marko Papic:Ukraine, Russia, which is extraordinary.
Marko Papic:He has left the ruling party completely pivoted away from Nazarbayev, positioned
Marko Papic:himself as a political economic reformer.
Marko Papic:Uh, he's, uh, refused to recognize Russian puppet states in Ukraine, refused to
Marko Papic:accept the, uh, uh, all sorts of domestic political problems in Russia that have
Marko Papic:sort of moved over to, uh, to Kazakhstan.
Marko Papic:And, uh, just managed to get rid of domestic political.
Marko Papic:Problems that have been left over from thus survive, have managed to
Marko Papic:balance both China and Russia as well.
Marko Papic:So really impressive work there in Kazakhstan that nobody's
Marko Papic:probably paying attention to.
Marko Papic:I would definitely trade a leader of many countries for to kaev.
Marko Papic:Number four.
Marko Papic:Hasn't made your list, which is surprising.
Marko Papic:This is the best economic performance in Europe.
Marko Papic:I said Spain.
Marko Papic:There is another country that's doing even better.
Marko Papic:The largest budget deficit consolidation in human history.
Marko Papic:We're talking about KO's, midis of Greece, also geopolitically, you know, quiet.
Marko Papic:Hasn't really pushed against Turkey.
Marko Papic:Quietly become the destination for Israeli entrepreneurs and capital
Marko Papic:has moved into Greece a lot.
Marko Papic:And, um, really interesting, interesting, uh, performance.
Marko Papic:I think that, um.
Marko Papic:Absolutely would, uh, trade, uh, many leaders for mitsotakis.
Marko Papic:Um, also third term, uh, which you know, is very impressive in a place like Greece.
Marko Papic:I have, uh, Modi third.
Marko Papic:I regret it.
Marko Papic:I regret it though.
Marko Papic:I think you are you.
Marko Papic:No, no.
Marko Papic:I mean, just, you made such a compelling case, uh, for why, you
Marko Papic:know, he shouldn't be number three.
Marko Papic:He is for you, number 15.
Marko Papic:I think that's, that's correct.
Marko Papic:You know, I, I overstated him.
Marko Papic:And then finally we get to our top two choices who will be ranked
Marko Papic:number one and two on our lists.
Marko Papic:So I nailed it mainly because you also agree yours, uh, six and
Marko Papic:four, and it's very interesting.
Marko Papic:The top two leaders in the world for Jacob Shapiro and Marco Papich are women.
Marko Papic:Number two, Claudia Shine Bone absolutely crush you.
Marko Papic:I'm so happy
Jacob Shapiro:she's number two for you.
Jacob Shapiro:I'm so impressed with her.
Marko Papic:Yeah, absolutely.
Marko Papic:And number one, the greatest leader in the world.
Marko Papic:And she will be confirmed.
Marko Papic:No, no, no.
Marko Papic:I'm sorry.
Marko Papic:But if she will be confirmed once I do the math, it will work out.
Marko Papic:'cause she is number six for you.
Marko Papic:She's number one for me.
Marko Papic:Maybe Shaba actually goes higher.
Marko Papic:Four and two.
Marko Papic:Oh, this is gonna be interesting.
Marko Papic:No,
Jacob Shapiro:yeah, it will be.
Jacob Shapiro:Yeah.
Jacob Shapiro:Yeah.
Marko Papic:Claudia Sheba will be crown number one.
Marko Papic:She's number two for me.
Marko Papic:For me number one, and will be crown number two.
Marko Papic:Overall is I. Just an absolute legend.
Marko Papic:Georgia Maloney crushed it just, I mean, mic drop in every way, shape or form from
Marko Papic:her facial expressions when she's dealing with chauvinistic, overburdening annoying
Marko Papic:men down to the economic performance of Italy, down to way that she has completely
Marko Papic:dampened populism in the country.
Marko Papic:She's given the anti-establishment populous what they wanted, which
Marko Papic:is anti-immigration policies, and then she has pursued a
Marko Papic:pretty solid economic agenda.
Marko Papic:Nobody talks about the fact that Italy still has huge debt burden because
Marko Papic:the deficit has absolutely shrunk.
Marko Papic:Well done.
Marko Papic:George Maloney, you are number one on the list, but I can just see the data
Marko Papic:right now and it looks like Mexico's president, Claudia Scheinbaum is crowned
Marko Papic:the best leader in the world with Maloney second, so that's one in two.
Marko Papic:Um.
Marko Papic:Two leaders, um, two female leaders in uh, G 20 countries.
Marko Papic:So that's very interesting.
Marko Papic:I will complete the mathematical, uh, consolidation of our two lists.
Marko Papic:And in the next episode, what we're gonna do, Jacob, is we're going to,
Marko Papic:uh, basically go from one to about 50.
Marko Papic:I think we got about 50 leaders here because, you know, you had some
Marko Papic:that I didn't have and vice versa.
Marko Papic:Mm-hmm.
Marko Papic:Uh, and then we're gonna talk about those that we've left out, why we
Marko Papic:left them out, namely Donald Trump.
Marko Papic:We're gonna get a lot of hate mail, which is great.
Marko Papic:Let's go, let's go.
Marko Papic:Uh, and then the second thing also, we also,
Jacob Shapiro:we, we left out Vladimir Putin, Kim Jong Un, uh, Gabriel Boruch
Jacob Shapiro:was also on my honorable mention list, but you'll still get into it.
Marko Papic:Oh yeah, that's fair.
Marko Papic:We, we, we'll, we'll get into all of that.
Marko Papic:Um, and also, yeah, I mean, we're gonna, we're gonna ask ourselves
Marko Papic:would we really trade these people?
Marko Papic:But I gotta say Shiba and, uh, Maloney.
Marko Papic:Yeah.
Marko Papic:I mean, I think I would trade the leaders of our country for those.
Jacob Shapiro:I, I would be happy to live under the two of them.
Jacob Shapiro:That's fine with me.
Marko Papic:Alright, on, on that note, uh, we're gonna
Marko Papic:end our, uh, top trade list.
Marko Papic:Part one, part two is coming, uh, soon, hopefully early next week when we can
Marko Papic:kind of digest some of the feedback and go into, uh, the definitive list.
Marko Papic:That is the mind belt of both of us.
Jacob Shapiro:This was incredible, cousin.
Jacob Shapiro:Thank you so much.
Marko Papic:Thank you.
Marko Papic:No, I appreciate all the hard work.