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Jacob Smulian: Hello and welcome to
another episode of Geopolitical Cousins.

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I am your editor and apparently
intro maker Jacob Mian.

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Um, this is a super fun episode.

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The cousins are unpacking the US'
response to Iran's attack on Israel.

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Um, they are diving into whether or not
deterrence is a credible strategy anymore.

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And then the topic we've
all been waiting for.

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Taylor Swift's geopolitical reach.

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So the world is messy.

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It's raining outside.

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Get off your phone, go touch
some grass and let's get into it.

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Jacob Shapiro: Alright, listeners,
Marco is up at, is it four

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20 or five 20 in the morning?

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Marco?

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Marko Papic: It is five 20.

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Five plane.

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Okay,

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Jacob Shapiro: four.

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Four would would be uncivilized.

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Five is at least in the
realm of civilization,

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although it's still not good.

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Uh, everybody admires your
dedication for being here.

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It's nice to see you.

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Marko Papic: Well, first of all, uh,
this is the life of a strategist.

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It's 24 hours.

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You know, you've got clients,
uh, requesting a call at

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like 3:00 AM in the morning.

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Uh, it's also a life of someone
who lives on the West Coast.

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This is how the rest of you.

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Punish us for living in, uh,
on the Pacific, uh, coast.

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And then finally, uh, if you want to
achieve absurd levels of manliness,

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you do have to wake up early to
bench press, and we will get to

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this a little bit later, I believe.

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Jacob Shapiro: Yes.

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From, from Canadian nationalism
to, uh, Uber Manliness.

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Uh, let's just start right there.

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So this was sparked by an article
BBC had it, but there's a bunch

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of different, um, uh, bunch of
different articles around this.

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Uh, we're gonna be talking about Father
Moses McPherson, whose congregation

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has tripled in size in the last I.

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18 months.

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He lives in Georgetown, Texas, just
a little bit north of Austin, Texas,

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the city where Marco and I met also.

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Uh, it's funny, I was thinking,
I didn't even tell you this.

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Marco uh, Gordon Ramsey did like a kitchen
nightmares episode in Georgetown, Texas.

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And this is like a, I don't
know, spiritual life nightmares

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is what this guy does.

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I don't know.

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He like goes into your house and yells
at you and tells you what to do Anyway.

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Uh, so he, uh, this guy Father
Moses, he was a Protestant who

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worked as a roofer, but now he's
a priest in the Russian Orthodox

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Church outside of Russia or RO car.

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I dunno if they call it that,
but that's what their acronym is.

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Acronym is here.

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Um, and I mean the, the BBC article
has just, whoever wrote this

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article must have had a ton of fun
because it leads off with a quote.

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A lot of people ask me, father
Moses, how can I increase my

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manliness to absurd levels?

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End quote.

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Um, and he has a whole YouTube
video as championing a form of veal

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unapologetic masculinity, uh, with which.

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Sort of confusingly Marco includes
skinny jeans, crossing your

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legs, using an iron, shaping your
eyebrows, and, and eating soup.

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These are all things
that are too feminine.

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Yeah.

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Yeah.

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These are like, you know.

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Yes.

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Yeah.

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So he, he's saying that these
things are too, uh, too feminine.

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Uh, he's gotten 75 new followers,
uh, which doesn't seem like a

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lot in 18 months, but whatever.

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Like, that's more than zero followers.

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He, I wonder if he has a podcast,
he, he can claim that he, uh,

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tripled it in size anyway.

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Um, it also, it literally
seems like a plot.

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I don't know if you've seen
the righteous gemstones on HBO.

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It's like a, like I'm watching it with
my wife right now, which is about these

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like us mega, it's like, it's about a us
mega church and John Goodman is the pastor

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and he's got all these silly children.

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One of the kids, like the youngest one of
the kids, seems like a closeted gay guy.

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And he's, he's assembled this like
army of muscular men and he's like

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teaching them how to like, uh, be with
Christ, but also like, like literally

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they're training to carry the cross
through the Judean desert itself.

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And like they have to eat
nice and like lift a bunch of

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weights and things like that.

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And I turned to my wife and I
was like, 'cause she grew up

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in the, in the Baptist world.

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And I was like, is this real?

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Like, do people do this?

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And she was like, nah,
nah, this is a joke.

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But it's not a joke.

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'cause here's Father Moses saying we
have to increase our levels of manliness.

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Um, you know, Skyward.

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So I'll let you cook from there, Marco.

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'cause we are gonna make
this serious in a second.

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Marko Papic: Yeah.

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So I think, um.

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First of all, I am Orthodox
and I can tell Why didn't

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Jacob Shapiro: that?

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Marko Papic: Yeah, we, I mean, you
know, serves, serves our Orthodox

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and we definitely eat soup.

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In fact, when I was, uh, young, my
grandmother who had herself observed

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levels of manliness, just FYI, so
she would like force feed me soup.

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Before the meal, it was like,
if you didn't eat soup, this

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was like obsession of Serbian
grandmothers was to feed you soup.

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So I don't understand why soup in
the American version of, uh, Russian

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orthodoxy is, um, is not manly.

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But, uh, so first of all, for those of
you who don't know, um, Christianity

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has many different denominations.

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The two main ones before Martin Luther
came along and like protested the

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two, um, were Catholic and Orthodox,
uh, roughly split along the borders

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effectively of the Byzantine Empire.

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Uh, and the difference between the
two, and this is important 'cause a

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lot of people don't understand it.

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Uh, whenever I say I'm Orthodox, they're
like, oh, you're Russian Orthodox.

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It's like, no, no,
that's not how it works.

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Um, in the eastern part of Europe,
uh, most countries basically have

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their own, uh, orthodox religion.

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So think of it the way that
Anglicans, for example, exist.

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Um, you know, it, it's much
more associated with the state

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itself, the nation state.

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And so you have Armenian Orthodox,
you have Bulgarian Orthodox, you

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have Russian Orthodox, uh, do not
have, of course Ukrainian Orthodox,

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which was controversial, um, Serbian
Orthodox, uh, and so on and so on.

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Greek Orthodox, of course,
also very important.

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You have several other denominations
and they're all, um, essentially equal.

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Although the Archbishop of
Constantinople is still like Titularly.

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Uh, above all of them, you
know, uh, but, but not really.

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They're, they're pretty much all equal.

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So each one of these
groups has its own pope.

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Uh, anyways, this particular offshoot
in the US that's gaining a lot of,

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uh, uh, followers is the Russian
Orthodox Church outside of Russia.

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So the diocese, I guess, would what
be, what we would call it, is it's an

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offshoot of the Russian, uh, church.

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It's not the American Orthodox Church,
which I actually also believe exists.

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Um, anyways, long story short, um,
because, uh, Russia's so manly,

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you know, um, there is, I guess,
appeal, um, for people to join

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this Russian Orthodox Church.

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And I thought that was really interesting
because later embedded in this article,

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um, is basically this interesting link.

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Um, to a web, to a website run by the,
I think, Russian Ministry of Foreign

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Affairs, where you can go and get a visa.

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You can get a visa for, um, join, uh,
for basically residency in Russia.

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Uh, that's a path to permanent
residency for like-minded

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individuals from countries.

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And they list the countries and
the countries are effectively

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all from, um, from the west.

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Um, it's not like any
Russia adjacent countries.

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Um, it's just targeted towards the
west to attract immigrants, like

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wine minded, conservative, you know,
people who believed in manliness.

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Is, I guess, not eating soup and
not wearing skinny jeans, obviously,

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even though one would argue perhaps
that you have to be, you have to

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achieve giga levels of manliness
to pull off skinny jeans in 2025.

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That's, you know, some would say
that, some would say that's how you

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achieve giga, levels of manliness.

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But yeah, so like the Russian foreign
ministry has this website, um, and this

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visa program that allows you to join, uh,
basically Russia and get, uh, residency.

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And it was in this article, I
guess because, uh, you know, it's,

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it's this whole wave that's now,
uh, started, uh, it's on YouTube.

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It's a guess in the Russian Orthodox, uh,
offshoot of Russia standing as a bulwark

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for Western, uh, traditional values.

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Um.

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I don't know what to say about that.

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It seems weird.

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Jacob Shapiro: Well, yeah, it's
called, it is called the shared

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values visa, which is remarkable.

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And it's like got pictures of like a
ballerina and like beautiful, you know,

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uh, beautiful scenery inside Russia.

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I don't see any pictures of
like, Siberia here, for example.

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It's like some beautiful, like rock
fixture in the middle of a lake.

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Um, I, I think there are like a
couple interesting things here.

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The first is like the history of the
Russian Orthodox Church in general, um,

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is actually extremely geopolitical and
it's, it's really relevant to, to Vladimir

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Putin and all the things that he's done.

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And Vladimir Putin, you can
kind of tell is obsessed with

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this idea of manliness too.

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Not just conservativeness, but manliness.

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Like always needing to be out with
his shirt off, riding the horses,

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like jumping in the cold water.

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Like he's always had to project
this image of being super manly

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and super strong all the time.

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Um.

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And I think part of it is that
for most of the 20th century, the

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Russian Orthodox Church was on the
outs with the Russian government.

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The Russian Orthodox Church had really
deep ties with the Czars, and it was sort

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of the Czars and the Russian Orthodox
Church, like, I don't know, like governed

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as a little bit too strong, but they
worked hand in hand to maintain Russia.

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Uh, but the communist wanted
nothing to do with religion.

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Uh, I'll, I'll, I'll take a, a Lenin quote
here outta my bag that he wrote in 1905.

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Quote.

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Religion is a kind of spiritual
gin in which the slaves of capital

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drown their human shape and their
claims to any decent human life.

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End quote.

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Probably Lenin would be eating soup and,
uh, in, in skinny jeans in Moscow right

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now as he's, as he's blogging that.

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Marko Papic: Yes.

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Jacob Shapiro: Um, and like, I
don't know when the, when the

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communists first take power, there's
sort of this uneasy relationship

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with the Russian Orthodox Church.

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Um, the Russian Orthodox Church is allowed
to rally Russian patriotism in World War

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II and the fight against Nazi Germany.

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But in 59 Khrushchev
basically says no more.

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We are gonna be a real communist,
basically atheist state.

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And the Russian Orthodox Church sort of
has to go underground and Putin turns

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that around when he takes power and
when he's trying to sort of rebuild

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a sense of Russian nationalism.

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He really does inject the Russian
Orthodox Church, um, with a lot more

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importance and gives them free reign.

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And sort of the same way he
gave ProGo free reign with

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the, um, with the mercenaries.

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He gave the Russian Orthodox Church
free reign to go about and spread,

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uh, as you sort of say Russia's
values throughout the Orthodox world.

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And apparently he's trying
to spread it throughout.

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Of the United States too.

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I, I don't think it's gonna do
that much in the United States.

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Um, but you know, like, uh, there
was some Pew data that showed that,

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uh, you know, Orthodox Christians
in the United States are 64% male,

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which is up from 46% in 2007.

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So, so something is happening like
men are flocking, uh, to this Orthodox

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church in some meaningful way.

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And I guess.

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I guess he's articulating something.

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I find the description of his, of
Father Moses and this particularly

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masculine orthodoxy that he's
describing, pretty boring.

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He is like saying you can either,
you can serve God by being a nun

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or a monk or by getting married.

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Uh, he says you should
not use any birth control.

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Masturbation is pathetic and unmanly.

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00:11:47,290 --> 00:11:50,260
Uh, he doesn't want his services to
feel like a Taylor Swift concert.

230
00:11:50,410 --> 00:11:50,980
Okay.

231
00:11:51,430 --> 00:11:55,210
Um, he says The look at the language
of worship music, it's all emotion.

232
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That's not men.

233
00:11:56,260 --> 00:11:56,560
Okay.

234
00:11:56,560 --> 00:11:57,130
Bullshit.

235
00:11:57,160 --> 00:11:57,880
Uh, but fine.

236
00:11:57,910 --> 00:12:01,390
Like, it's just, it's just like
very sort of normal, retrograde,

237
00:12:01,390 --> 00:12:04,060
patriarchal, conservative, like fluff.

238
00:12:04,060 --> 00:12:05,290
But I guess that's what people want.

239
00:12:05,290 --> 00:12:05,590
I don't know.

240
00:12:06,370 --> 00:12:08,620
Marko Papic: So there's, there's a
couple of things where we can take

241
00:12:08,620 --> 00:12:12,400
this and I definitely wanna take it
to the visa, uh, the value visa that

242
00:12:12,400 --> 00:12:13,960
Russia has, which is fascinating.

243
00:12:14,110 --> 00:12:16,780
Uh, you know, I encourage
everyone to go to the website.

244
00:12:17,355 --> 00:12:20,205
Uh, I mean, BBC does as well, which, which

245
00:12:21,945 --> 00:12:23,205
Jacob Shapiro: that was
funny to go to the website.

246
00:12:23,205 --> 00:12:26,235
We do not, we do not suggest that you
apply for the Russian value visa, or I

247
00:12:26,235 --> 00:12:27,315
guess you could do whatever you want.

248
00:12:27,315 --> 00:12:27,800
Y'all are all, you

249
00:12:27,805 --> 00:12:28,485
Marko Papic: do whatever you want.

250
00:12:28,665 --> 00:12:29,505
I mean, why not?

251
00:12:29,505 --> 00:12:30,705
Like it's a free market.

252
00:12:31,065 --> 00:12:36,345
Um, I guess, and just the pictures that
they show ballerina, the cre uh, the

253
00:12:36,345 --> 00:12:42,765
Kremlin, um, and also just this like
picture of a family that got from, from

254
00:12:43,005 --> 00:12:49,155
like a stock photo, um, of just, you know,
a man holding a baby, a woman holding a

255
00:12:49,155 --> 00:12:53,955
child, and they're holding hands, running
through, I guess wheat fields in Russia.

256
00:12:53,985 --> 00:12:56,865
So, um, couple of things.

257
00:12:56,865 --> 00:13:01,995
First of all, I do think that men
and boys are, are clearly lost.

258
00:13:02,055 --> 00:13:06,885
There's a great book by Richard
Reeves called Of Boys and Men, which

259
00:13:06,885 --> 00:13:08,685
I would encourage ev everyone to read.

260
00:13:09,135 --> 00:13:12,825
And in fact, effectively it
argues that, um, it know one

261
00:13:12,825 --> 00:13:15,705
of the problems is that, um.

262
00:13:16,605 --> 00:13:21,195
Just genetically speaking and
biologically speaking, women and girls

263
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develop faster than men mentally.

264
00:13:24,075 --> 00:13:29,925
Um, and so what happens in competition
in education is that quite often

265
00:13:29,985 --> 00:13:32,085
girls are going to outperform boys.

266
00:13:32,745 --> 00:13:38,175
Now, in the past, the way that we, uh,
didn't allow this to happen is we, what's

267
00:13:38,230 --> 00:13:40,245
the word, discriminated against women.

268
00:13:40,395 --> 00:13:41,025
That's right.

269
00:13:41,145 --> 00:13:45,015
That was their solution for
thousands of years of human history.

270
00:13:45,225 --> 00:13:47,475
We basically just discriminated women.

271
00:13:47,955 --> 00:13:52,755
Um, but because we don't actually do that
anymore, or not to like the extent it

272
00:13:52,755 --> 00:13:58,275
happened in the past, what's showing up
in test scores, in educational results,

273
00:13:58,335 --> 00:14:03,165
in job opportunities, especially in a
heavy service oriented economy, is the

274
00:14:03,165 --> 00:14:07,635
fact that, you know, girls Rule as the
first chapter of the book is titled.

275
00:14:08,625 --> 00:14:10,695
Now, Richard Reeves is not
some right wing ideologue.

276
00:14:11,265 --> 00:14:15,735
Um, he's actually, um, I
think, uh, what is he exactly?

277
00:14:15,795 --> 00:14:19,365
Um, I don't think he's just an author.

278
00:14:19,635 --> 00:14:25,785
Uh oh, no, he is, um, he is a social
scientist, senior fellow at the

279
00:14:25,820 --> 00:14:28,785
Brooking I institution, president of
the American Institute for Boys and Men.

280
00:14:29,235 --> 00:14:31,695
Um, which I have to say sounds weird.

281
00:14:32,295 --> 00:14:38,325
Uh, has a PhD, I think
in, um, oh, a geography.

282
00:14:38,385 --> 00:14:40,995
Uh, interesting, interesting
path to write about this.

283
00:14:40,995 --> 00:14:43,935
But, you know, he's not, uh, I
mean, you know, he works for the

284
00:14:43,935 --> 00:14:48,105
Brookings Institution, like he's,
he's not some weird YouTube show

285
00:14:48,315 --> 00:14:50,295
or a podcaster, if you will.

286
00:14:51,135 --> 00:14:55,485
Um, and so his book is not some
sort of call to go back in time.

287
00:14:55,485 --> 00:14:59,205
He's just trying to fix this,
uh, this issue that's coming up.

288
00:14:59,205 --> 00:15:02,565
And then nobody is very
comfortable talking about, you're

289
00:15:02,565 --> 00:15:05,445
not comfortable talking about
it, because if you talk about.

290
00:15:06,390 --> 00:15:10,020
Boys and men falling behind,
you're somehow anti-feminist.

291
00:15:10,740 --> 00:15:14,130
You know, and I think one of the most
interesting thing that Reeves argues

292
00:15:14,130 --> 00:15:15,390
is that that's not the case at all.

293
00:15:15,390 --> 00:15:19,800
You can be a feminist and you can
also just identify ways in which

294
00:15:20,070 --> 00:15:23,250
men and boys in today's modern
society are starting to fall behind.

295
00:15:23,700 --> 00:15:25,170
But why do I bring this book up?

296
00:15:25,170 --> 00:15:27,660
I bring this book up, first of all,
because it's an interesting one, and

297
00:15:27,660 --> 00:15:29,310
I like reading different perspectives.

298
00:15:29,310 --> 00:15:35,490
But diff the other issue is that, um,
Reeves is right, and that's why there's

299
00:15:35,490 --> 00:15:44,970
such appeal to new forms of achieving uber
manliness, you know, in a world where boys

300
00:15:45,060 --> 00:15:50,250
fall behind the school, uh, and then end
up, you know, um, you know, facing law

301
00:15:50,250 --> 00:15:55,440
schools and medical schools where a vast
majority are not women, uh, who graduate

302
00:15:55,440 --> 00:15:56,820
from those programs, which is fine.

303
00:15:56,880 --> 00:15:58,650
Like that's all good and, and fine.

304
00:15:58,650 --> 00:16:00,720
But like the point is there is.

305
00:16:01,035 --> 00:16:02,985
There is something missing.

306
00:16:03,165 --> 00:16:09,675
And I think it's being filled
increasingly by ideologies and new

307
00:16:09,675 --> 00:16:14,385
religious cults or new religions, uh,
and new appeals to how to become a man,

308
00:16:15,465 --> 00:16:17,505
you know, new, new sort of, uh, ways.

309
00:16:17,535 --> 00:16:22,064
And I think it's an interesting
point that I don't think we've all

310
00:16:22,064 --> 00:16:27,824
accepted as the source of the new
ideological tensions in the world.

311
00:16:28,305 --> 00:16:31,545
I think that's something that like,
is not being discussed enough.

312
00:16:31,905 --> 00:16:35,655
In other words, we're in a post-industrial
society, this appeal of bringing

313
00:16:35,655 --> 00:16:39,314
back manufacturing to the us there's
part of it that makes sense from

314
00:16:39,314 --> 00:16:40,575
a national security perspective.

315
00:16:40,575 --> 00:16:43,485
You should be able to build cars
if you one day have to build tanks.

316
00:16:43,845 --> 00:16:44,235
Okay.

317
00:16:44,925 --> 00:16:46,575
Steel, aluminum, I get it.

318
00:16:46,635 --> 00:16:47,025
Yeah.

319
00:16:47,204 --> 00:16:49,185
Steel aluminum are really
important in a war.

320
00:16:49,185 --> 00:16:53,564
So there are ways to justify, you know,
tariffs through national security.

321
00:16:53,805 --> 00:16:58,064
But when you start asking for
bicycles and like, you know.

322
00:16:59,370 --> 00:17:01,830
I don't know, like toaster
ovens to be built in America.

323
00:17:01,830 --> 00:17:04,379
You have to step back and be like,
okay, well what is this about?

324
00:17:04,740 --> 00:17:07,829
And then you realize, well, it's
about the fact that, you know, for

325
00:17:07,829 --> 00:17:12,119
a lot of men who are not very well
educated and can't really do service

326
00:17:12,119 --> 00:17:16,109
jobs, um, what is there to do?

327
00:17:17,190 --> 00:17:22,500
So I do think that this, this issue,
this socio, you know, biological

328
00:17:22,500 --> 00:17:28,079
issue that we have in our society of
men and boys falling behind in 2025

329
00:17:28,950 --> 00:17:31,470
is not just a silly sort of a meme.

330
00:17:32,370 --> 00:17:36,060
It's also underpinning a lot
of the, uh, policies that are

331
00:17:36,060 --> 00:17:38,400
being shaped by right of center.

332
00:17:38,730 --> 00:17:39,210
Um.

333
00:17:39,615 --> 00:17:40,905
Parties across the world.

334
00:17:42,195 --> 00:17:44,775
Jacob Shapiro: Yeah, we, we talked about
Israel Palestine last time, so now we're

335
00:17:44,775 --> 00:17:49,095
gonna talk about, uh, the, you know, this,
uh, we're, we're just flirting with the,

336
00:17:49,155 --> 00:17:50,625
with cancel stuff all over the place.

337
00:17:50,625 --> 00:17:54,795
I, it, it's funny, I think there's a lot
of different things you can attribute

338
00:17:54,915 --> 00:17:57,285
this to, and I don't know which one it is.

339
00:17:57,285 --> 00:17:59,625
I'm, I feel like it's a cop out
to say, oh, it's all of them,

340
00:17:59,625 --> 00:18:00,855
but maybe it's just all of them.

341
00:18:01,185 --> 00:18:04,515
But like, on my list of things
that could be driving this, um.

342
00:18:05,295 --> 00:18:06,405
Uh, there's a couple different ones.

343
00:18:06,405 --> 00:18:09,975
Number one is just like the sort of
with the, with the, with the end of the

344
00:18:09,975 --> 00:18:12,825
Cold War and the victory of capitalism.

345
00:18:12,825 --> 00:18:16,485
Like we can go back to, to Lenin and
the gin of the masses and just say

346
00:18:16,485 --> 00:18:20,085
like, yeah, like all of this, like
Godlessness and just consumer culture

347
00:18:20,085 --> 00:18:21,975
and bye byebye, and do whatever you want.

348
00:18:21,975 --> 00:18:24,645
Like there is like a moral center
that seems to have gone away.

349
00:18:24,645 --> 00:18:27,555
And if you look at decades
of declining religious rates.

350
00:18:28,050 --> 00:18:29,430
Um, like that's in there.

351
00:18:29,670 --> 00:18:31,620
It could also be driven by the internet.

352
00:18:31,649 --> 00:18:34,050
Like people are not hanging
out in person anymore.

353
00:18:34,050 --> 00:18:35,850
They're hanging out and
playing video games.

354
00:18:35,850 --> 00:18:39,000
They're, they're not, uh, when George
Kennon was writing in the 1950s about how

355
00:18:39,000 --> 00:18:42,210
much better the United States is in the
Soviet Union, one of his key indicators

356
00:18:42,210 --> 00:18:44,220
was Americans hang out with each other.

357
00:18:44,220 --> 00:18:45,510
They go to bowling leagues.

358
00:18:45,510 --> 00:18:49,020
They have like natural affiliations
and institutions where they do stuff

359
00:18:49,020 --> 00:18:52,920
together and they're not worried about
the KGB taking and, you know, arresting

360
00:18:52,920 --> 00:18:54,060
them and putting them in the gulag.

361
00:18:54,060 --> 00:18:56,490
They just want to go bowl and
like do whatever they wanna do.

362
00:18:56,730 --> 00:19:01,230
Like that has really gone away, uh,
manufacturing and agriculture, like

363
00:19:01,230 --> 00:19:02,730
two of the manliest jobs out there.

364
00:19:02,730 --> 00:19:05,879
Even if you are making bikes like
steel and aluminum, really manly,

365
00:19:05,879 --> 00:19:08,730
being in the field doing stuff
like really manly doing stuff with

366
00:19:08,730 --> 00:19:10,470
elec, uh, electrician work like.

367
00:19:11,235 --> 00:19:11,475
Yeah.

368
00:19:11,475 --> 00:19:14,115
You know, all that, all those
jobs have gone away and they've

369
00:19:14,115 --> 00:19:17,504
been considered bad and they've
sort of been considered low end.

370
00:19:17,504 --> 00:19:20,625
And as to your point, the manufacturing
jobs are not even really there anymore.

371
00:19:20,955 --> 00:19:23,324
I wonder if the university
has something to do with this.

372
00:19:23,715 --> 00:19:27,885
Um, and you can see, I think with the
way that MAGA is cool with the, the

373
00:19:27,885 --> 00:19:31,274
Trump administration literally shooting
the United States in its own foot,

374
00:19:31,274 --> 00:19:34,215
like I really do think 10 years from
now, when we talk about the long-term

375
00:19:34,215 --> 00:19:37,754
impact of the Trump administration,
the attack on US universities that is

376
00:19:37,754 --> 00:19:39,240
happening right now is gonna be the.

377
00:19:39,450 --> 00:19:42,390
Biggest thing that negatively
impacts the US going forward.

378
00:19:42,390 --> 00:19:46,380
But you can feel in how the MAGA
movement treats, um, the academy, that

379
00:19:46,380 --> 00:19:50,160
they think there is something wimpy,
whether it's critical race theory

380
00:19:50,160 --> 00:19:51,300
or, you know, all these other things.

381
00:19:51,300 --> 00:19:52,260
Like there's something there.

382
00:19:52,260 --> 00:19:55,380
And I would tie that to the issue of
manliness with, you know, it used to

383
00:19:55,380 --> 00:19:59,340
be, um, that only the, not the best
and the brightest that the upper

384
00:19:59,340 --> 00:20:01,050
crust of society went to university.

385
00:20:01,080 --> 00:20:06,000
Like university was finishing school
for the men of the aristocracy

386
00:20:06,030 --> 00:20:07,110
or for the upper classes.

387
00:20:07,110 --> 00:20:10,470
Like people like Franklin Delano Roosevelt
went to university because it was sort

388
00:20:10,470 --> 00:20:13,050
of, oh, you were on the short list of
somebody that could run the country.

389
00:20:13,695 --> 00:20:16,845
I think for better mostly, but
for better and for worse, like the

390
00:20:16,845 --> 00:20:18,105
university has been democratized.

391
00:20:18,315 --> 00:20:22,065
Not only can anybody go to university,
everybody should go to university.

392
00:20:22,185 --> 00:20:25,005
And we'll tip the scale so that no
matter where you are, how intelligent

393
00:20:25,005 --> 00:20:28,065
you are, everybody deserves the same
chance to go to university and get

394
00:20:28,065 --> 00:20:30,615
a liberal arts degree, even though
that's not necessarily what you need.

395
00:20:30,615 --> 00:20:31,395
So I think that's in there.

396
00:20:31,485 --> 00:20:33,195
And then feminism is in there too.

397
00:20:33,495 --> 00:20:36,435
And women saw women wanted
to have money of their own.

398
00:20:36,435 --> 00:20:38,355
They wanted to have careers of their own.

399
00:20:38,685 --> 00:20:42,915
Uh, I always crib from um, Christopher
Hitchens who said, if you want the,

400
00:20:42,975 --> 00:20:47,025
the most surefire way to cure poverty
in the world, empower women, give them

401
00:20:47,025 --> 00:20:50,475
access, like, and give them power of
their, their own biological clock.

402
00:20:50,625 --> 00:20:55,695
Every single society that has done that,
um, has enriched itself massively, uh,

403
00:20:55,695 --> 00:20:59,175
going forward, which actually cuts against
this idea that Russia shared values, the

404
00:20:59,175 --> 00:21:03,465
woman has to go back into the house and
breed while the men do manly things and,

405
00:21:03,500 --> 00:21:05,175
and build things and stuff like that.

406
00:21:05,475 --> 00:21:07,275
There's an interesting
juxtaposition there too.

407
00:21:07,275 --> 00:21:09,375
And then, I know I'm rambling,
but the last thing is just,

408
00:21:09,765 --> 00:21:12,615
it's also not just the, like the
Russians and the shared values.

409
00:21:13,230 --> 00:21:17,160
Like this has been an obsession of
Elon Musk's and sort of the rights

410
00:21:17,160 --> 00:21:19,170
for some time in the United States.

411
00:21:19,170 --> 00:21:23,010
Like I can go back to three, four
years ago where Musk is talking about

412
00:21:23,070 --> 00:21:27,000
population collapse due to low birth
rates being a much bigger risk to

413
00:21:27,000 --> 00:21:30,660
civilization than things like global
warming or things like geopolitics.

414
00:21:30,660 --> 00:21:35,010
And you've got like this coterie of your
Joe Rogans and your Dave Portnoy and your

415
00:21:35,010 --> 00:21:38,580
Chris Williamsons, all of whose podcasts
I would happily appear on so that I could

416
00:21:38,580 --> 00:21:40,200
connect with the misguided male youth.

417
00:21:40,200 --> 00:21:44,970
But they're all out there, like in
this very, muscular is the wrong word.

418
00:21:44,970 --> 00:21:49,080
It's like a very simplistic, like a
very sort of empty bro culture that

419
00:21:49,080 --> 00:21:51,990
a lot of people listen to because
they relate to it 'cause they feel

420
00:21:51,990 --> 00:21:53,610
like it's a quote unquote safe space.

421
00:21:53,610 --> 00:21:54,150
So I don't know.

422
00:21:54,150 --> 00:21:56,460
I'm trying, I'm like throwing
things out at the wall trying to

423
00:21:56,460 --> 00:21:58,680
figure out what the why is and we
probably won't be able to do it.

424
00:21:58,680 --> 00:22:02,070
Marko Papic: But no, I think, I think
what's what's fascinating about this

425
00:22:02,070 --> 00:22:04,440
is that this is one of the things
that I think is happening in the

426
00:22:04,440 --> 00:22:06,300
world right now on almost every issue.

427
00:22:07,140 --> 00:22:09,450
Um, and what I mean by that is that.

428
00:22:10,050 --> 00:22:15,480
There is a challenge to the conventional
wisdom, and it's usually set, uh,

429
00:22:15,480 --> 00:22:21,750
right of center, um, and the liberal
left and the progressive mainstream

430
00:22:21,780 --> 00:22:27,090
ignores it and basically says it's
a slippery slope towards a racist

431
00:22:27,899 --> 00:22:31,470
eugenics, like Nazi fascist state.

432
00:22:31,830 --> 00:22:37,980
And so it refuses to discuss it, and then
it's just remains in the right wing domain

433
00:22:38,100 --> 00:22:40,560
where it leads to a Nazi fascist state.

434
00:22:41,310 --> 00:22:43,680
So what do I mean, what do I mean by this?

435
00:22:44,460 --> 00:22:48,990
Um, like climate change I think is a
very similar topic where, um, climate

436
00:22:48,990 --> 00:22:50,970
change obviously is clearly happening.

437
00:22:51,615 --> 00:22:53,865
But is it going to cook
us by next Tuesday?

438
00:22:53,985 --> 00:22:55,425
Are we all gonna die by next Tuesday?

439
00:22:55,485 --> 00:22:57,315
Eh, I'm not sure that that's the case.

440
00:22:57,555 --> 00:23:00,165
And no, driving a Tesla doesn't
make you better human being.

441
00:23:00,435 --> 00:23:04,725
It actually makes you stupider if
you are driving a Tesla in part

442
00:23:04,725 --> 00:23:07,785
of the country where electricity
is not derived from alternatives.

443
00:23:07,785 --> 00:23:11,745
So you're just a moron who's driving a
piece of technology with 200 kilograms

444
00:23:11,745 --> 00:23:14,535
of metals that somebody had to dug
out, dig out of the ground, take to

445
00:23:14,535 --> 00:23:16,035
China, refine it and send it to you.

446
00:23:17,145 --> 00:23:20,055
So that's a good example
to me of, of an issue.

447
00:23:20,055 --> 00:23:23,325
Similarly with this, and what I
find, uh, fascinating with Richard

448
00:23:23,325 --> 00:23:26,475
Reese's book, which I've read
by the way I just checked up.

449
00:23:26,475 --> 00:23:28,095
He worked for Nick Clegg.

450
00:23:28,335 --> 00:23:31,365
I mean, you know, like he was the
leader of the liberal Democrats in the

451
00:23:31,365 --> 00:23:32,985
United Kingdom, deputy Prime Minister.

452
00:23:32,985 --> 00:23:33,670
I mean like mm-hmm.

453
00:23:33,795 --> 00:23:35,505
He is not a right wing lunatic.

454
00:23:35,565 --> 00:23:39,285
So for all of you who have not heard
of this book of Boys and Men, no, it's

455
00:23:39,285 --> 00:23:43,905
not some right wing appeal to like
subjugate women, but what he does is

456
00:23:43,905 --> 00:23:48,915
he presents data and says, Hey look,
boys are falling behind in education.

457
00:23:49,590 --> 00:23:50,910
There's nothing like wrong with that.

458
00:23:50,970 --> 00:23:54,720
Like, you know, they just develop a
little bit later than women, but we

459
00:23:54,720 --> 00:23:56,220
send them to school at the same time.

460
00:23:56,220 --> 00:23:59,850
And they compete for entry exams at
universities, very competitive at

461
00:23:59,850 --> 00:24:05,850
18, and they are not yet ready to
compete with 51% of the humans who

462
00:24:05,850 --> 00:24:07,440
are developed earlier than them.

463
00:24:08,160 --> 00:24:12,030
So then they fall behind and then we,
they fall through the cracks, and then

464
00:24:12,030 --> 00:24:16,800
they're left to be caught by the YouTubers
and podcaster that you were mentioning,

465
00:24:16,920 --> 00:24:20,700
and apparently the Russian Orthodox
Church of America, which offers them

466
00:24:21,030 --> 00:24:23,370
a path to Uber, levels of manliness.

467
00:24:23,850 --> 00:24:28,620
But what I find interesting, and
where I wanna point a finger to is

468
00:24:28,620 --> 00:24:33,210
to the left, is to the liberals,
because they're the ones that are

469
00:24:33,210 --> 00:24:35,850
unwilling to even debate this issue.

470
00:24:36,240 --> 00:24:36,900
In many ways.

471
00:24:36,900 --> 00:24:40,620
And I actually, the way I found out
about Reeves is I watched him on,

472
00:24:40,680 --> 00:24:45,330
on a couple of, like comedy talk
shows where he was basically being

473
00:24:45,390 --> 00:24:47,340
made fun of by the interviewer.

474
00:24:47,520 --> 00:24:48,245
Like mm-hmm.

475
00:24:48,625 --> 00:24:50,610
All really, like, men are falling behind.

476
00:24:50,610 --> 00:24:52,920
And he's like, no, no, I'm
actually serious about this.

477
00:24:52,920 --> 00:24:55,740
You know, like, here's this book,
you know, and they're like, ha

478
00:24:55,740 --> 00:24:58,830
ha, ha, uh, and he's like, no, but
seriously, we need to talk about this.

479
00:24:58,830 --> 00:25:01,740
And if we don't talk about it,
then the men who fall through

480
00:25:01,740 --> 00:25:06,300
the cracks or the boys are going
to find ways to be, to fulfill

481
00:25:06,300 --> 00:25:09,660
themselves, to be manly on YouTube.

482
00:25:09,900 --> 00:25:13,980
And I think this is, this is
something where Donald Trump and

483
00:25:13,980 --> 00:25:16,350
the MAGA movement are kind of right.

484
00:25:16,800 --> 00:25:25,260
You know, it's, it's this, it's, it's,
it's this, um, failure to debate, failure

485
00:25:25,260 --> 00:25:31,770
to recognize something is a problem that
then leads to people reaching for the

486
00:25:31,770 --> 00:25:33,720
Russian Orthodox Church as a solution.

487
00:25:34,095 --> 00:25:35,115
To their problems.

488
00:25:35,265 --> 00:25:41,475
And it's, it's, it's the unwillingness
often of, um, the establishment

489
00:25:41,625 --> 00:25:45,615
writ large to debate the issues
similarly with climate change,

490
00:25:45,765 --> 00:25:47,145
mitigation of climate change.

491
00:25:47,145 --> 00:25:50,805
You know, like, um, as somebody who
lives in Los Angeles, who's, uh,

492
00:25:51,345 --> 00:25:56,055
who's, uh, basically, you know, a
place where I live almost burned down.

493
00:25:57,885 --> 00:26:02,235
Uh, I can tell you that I don't want
the mayor of my city going to cop.

494
00:26:02,325 --> 00:26:04,635
Mm-hmm.

495
00:26:05,145 --> 00:26:08,685
Like she needs to stay in this
town and make sure that there's

496
00:26:08,685 --> 00:26:10,605
mitigation to climate change.

497
00:26:10,605 --> 00:26:11,265
'cause it's happening.

498
00:26:12,255 --> 00:26:15,615
You know, like state officials
like Governor of California should

499
00:26:15,615 --> 00:26:17,655
not be going to an international
conference in climate change.

500
00:26:17,805 --> 00:26:18,285
Sorry, bro.

501
00:26:19,035 --> 00:26:19,455
Sorry.

502
00:26:20,175 --> 00:26:20,805
You know, come on.

503
00:26:20,805 --> 00:26:22,155
My podcast, come at me.

504
00:26:22,215 --> 00:26:22,935
We'll talk about it.

505
00:26:23,685 --> 00:26:28,485
But Governor Newsom should stay here
and mitigate for what's gonna happen.

506
00:26:29,535 --> 00:26:32,505
Sitting there and pretending it's
not happening, you know, and that

507
00:26:32,505 --> 00:26:36,915
we can still mitigate it through
EVs in like Bulgaria is nonsense.

508
00:26:36,915 --> 00:26:39,915
You need to make sure that there's
enough water in like fire hydrants

509
00:26:39,915 --> 00:26:43,875
for example, so that mitigation occurs
again, a very similar problem that we

510
00:26:43,875 --> 00:26:47,745
have in our society where there's an
issue and it just doesn't get handled

511
00:26:47,985 --> 00:26:52,875
because the waste to handle it actually
undermines the bigger, bigger story.

512
00:26:53,565 --> 00:26:57,465
Um, so this is one of those things and
I find it, you know, fascinating that

513
00:26:57,465 --> 00:26:58,935
we've basically gotten to a point.

514
00:26:59,834 --> 00:27:03,794
You know, some young man, um, has no
recourse to anything else other than

515
00:27:03,794 --> 00:27:08,024
to listen to Joe Rogan bench press
and join the Russian Orthodox Church.

516
00:27:08,864 --> 00:27:09,254
Jacob Shapiro: Yeah.

517
00:27:09,344 --> 00:27:12,495
Um, yeah, I'm here in New Orleans
ground zero for climate change.

518
00:27:12,495 --> 00:27:15,584
And exactly to your point, like, you know,
there have been so many plans about how

519
00:27:15,584 --> 00:27:19,544
to deal with living close to water and
invariably none of the plans get made.

520
00:27:19,544 --> 00:27:22,155
They just build some more pumps
and some construction company gets

521
00:27:22,155 --> 00:27:23,745
a backend deal and, and whatever.

522
00:27:24,344 --> 00:27:24,945
Um.

523
00:27:25,340 --> 00:27:27,530
I, I guess, um, you know, you
were talking about the left.

524
00:27:27,530 --> 00:27:30,440
I, I wanna protect some part of the left
because I don't know if you saw this.

525
00:27:30,440 --> 00:27:33,440
Did you see that Bernie Sanders went
on Andrew Schultz's podcast, um, a

526
00:27:33,440 --> 00:27:36,800
couple weeks ago and was getting major
flack on the left for going on there

527
00:27:37,100 --> 00:27:39,830
because like people accused him of
being a racist and things like that?

528
00:27:39,835 --> 00:27:42,260
I would, I would encourage people
to go watch the episode itself.

529
00:27:42,260 --> 00:27:43,550
It got over a million views.

530
00:27:43,940 --> 00:27:47,090
Um, but he did, I mean, he did what
Bernie always does, which is Bernie.

531
00:27:47,390 --> 00:27:48,680
This is the thing I like about Bernie.

532
00:27:48,680 --> 00:27:52,550
Even if I disagree with 60% of what comes
out of his mouth, he's always the same.

533
00:27:52,850 --> 00:27:53,990
He's always authentic.

534
00:27:53,990 --> 00:27:56,360
Like he's telling you exactly
what he thinks and he basically is

535
00:27:56,360 --> 00:27:57,860
like, don't get me on this hole.

536
00:27:57,860 --> 00:27:58,670
I'm a racist thing.

537
00:27:58,760 --> 00:28:02,270
I think that this is a class issue
and I think poor people have been

538
00:28:02,270 --> 00:28:04,760
taken for a ride in this country,
and I think we need to deal with

539
00:28:04,760 --> 00:28:06,170
inequality in all these different ways.

540
00:28:06,170 --> 00:28:08,000
Don't distract me with all this bullshit.

541
00:28:08,000 --> 00:28:09,860
I was marching in the
sixties and seventies, like,

542
00:28:09,860 --> 00:28:11,150
I'm not, I'm not that guy.

543
00:28:11,150 --> 00:28:13,130
I hate that I'm being
pigeonholed like that.

544
00:28:13,130 --> 00:28:16,910
But to your point, like Bernie was
like kept on the outside, uh, in that.

545
00:28:17,625 --> 00:28:21,225
And that 2016 election was sort
of thrown into the populous bag,

546
00:28:21,225 --> 00:28:24,285
pushed to the side, pushed as, as
this person who wasn't relevant.

547
00:28:24,495 --> 00:28:26,774
When there is, there is a
voice on the left that is

548
00:28:26,774 --> 00:28:28,274
willing to sort of confront it.

549
00:28:28,274 --> 00:28:31,875
And there it's, it's less about, um,
or, or the thing that he's really

550
00:28:31,875 --> 00:28:33,615
focusing on there is the establishment.

551
00:28:34,065 --> 00:28:39,045
And, and this is where the, the sort of
Trump thing breaks down because it's, you

552
00:28:39,045 --> 00:28:42,615
know, Trump promised to drain the swamp
and to get rid of the establishment,

553
00:28:42,615 --> 00:28:43,845
to challenge conventional views.

554
00:28:43,845 --> 00:28:44,504
And o okay.

555
00:28:44,504 --> 00:28:48,615
Like, with you, with you, with you,
except like the level of like, of like

556
00:28:48,645 --> 00:28:51,825
propping up the establishment and the
grift that we're seeing out of this White

557
00:28:51,825 --> 00:28:53,415
House is just like absolutely shocking.

558
00:28:53,415 --> 00:28:54,615
And that doesn't seem to matter to people.

559
00:28:54,615 --> 00:28:59,325
But, uh, last point, just, um, you
know, it was shocking at the time that

560
00:28:59,325 --> 00:29:04,365
Kamala Harris wouldn't go on Joe Rogan's
podcast like she had Trump on and

561
00:29:04,365 --> 00:29:07,065
like, she, well, no, correct me then.

562
00:29:07,065 --> 00:29:09,524
'cause she didn't, my understanding
was that she didn't wanna go on,

563
00:29:10,004 --> 00:29:13,035
Marko Papic: she, no, uh, Joe
Rogan addressed this, uh, on his

564
00:29:13,035 --> 00:29:14,685
podcast, I think, and it was, uh.

565
00:29:15,330 --> 00:29:20,040
She basically said, look, you have to
fly to us and I'll give you an hour.

566
00:29:20,610 --> 00:29:21,480
And he was like, no, no.

567
00:29:21,480 --> 00:29:26,460
The whole point of this is you have to
come to my like physical location, be

568
00:29:26,460 --> 00:29:31,530
here for like three hours and it's when
this thing gets into that two and a half

569
00:29:31,530 --> 00:29:35,280
hours, that's when you start losing, you
know, your, your composure and that's

570
00:29:35,280 --> 00:29:37,170
when you see the real stuff, you know?

571
00:29:37,170 --> 00:29:38,760
And, and I thought that was fair.

572
00:29:39,255 --> 00:29:43,485
Um, on his, you know, this is
how he does it and, you know, she

573
00:29:43,485 --> 00:29:47,715
has to do what he wants, but they
refuse to accept those conditions.

574
00:29:47,775 --> 00:29:48,735
And then Trump was like,

575
00:29:49,335 --> 00:29:51,290
Jacob Shapiro: already, it's the
same thing like Kamala Harris.

576
00:29:51,405 --> 00:29:52,215
Kamala Harris.

577
00:29:52,215 --> 00:29:54,375
Like if he hadn't invited her,
Kamala Harris should have been

578
00:29:54,375 --> 00:29:55,935
begging to get on that show.

579
00:29:56,085 --> 00:29:59,085
She should have been trying to reach
all those people that were listening

580
00:29:59,085 --> 00:30:03,405
and instead by saying, no, they just
gave another platform to Trump and gave

581
00:30:03,405 --> 00:30:07,695
all those, anybody who was looking to
Rogan like a Oh, okay, like Trump is

582
00:30:07,695 --> 00:30:10,155
brave enough to come on here and talk
to this guy, and the other one isn't.

583
00:30:10,245 --> 00:30:12,015
That's like all I really need to know.

584
00:30:12,015 --> 00:30:14,775
And I, I don't want this to be a Joe
Rogan love session, but I will say

585
00:30:14,775 --> 00:30:17,535
like, I listen to him every once in a
while, honestly, when I have trouble

586
00:30:17,535 --> 00:30:20,355
falling asleep gets me right to sleep.

587
00:30:20,865 --> 00:30:23,295
Um, but, um, I think.

588
00:30:23,805 --> 00:30:26,205
I think he does a really
good job of opening space

589
00:30:26,205 --> 00:30:27,405
for interesting conversation.

590
00:30:27,405 --> 00:30:31,245
He's not afraid of looking like an idiot
and asking stupid questions sometimes

591
00:30:31,245 --> 00:30:35,175
to smart people, sometimes to people
I regard as absolutely batshit insane.

592
00:30:35,415 --> 00:30:38,385
But like, he opens up a
space for conversation.

593
00:30:38,625 --> 00:30:41,715
And I think there is like a real
desire for like, oh, like you

594
00:30:41,715 --> 00:30:43,065
could say whatever you want.

595
00:30:43,065 --> 00:30:45,345
Like you'll, you'll, like, it
doesn't matter how dumb the view

596
00:30:45,345 --> 00:30:48,975
is, like you can learn or that's a
gateway drug into actually learning

597
00:30:48,975 --> 00:30:54,045
something rather than being taken
by Father Moses to stop jacking off.

598
00:30:54,045 --> 00:30:54,860
And, uh, no, that's,

599
00:30:55,125 --> 00:30:57,075
Marko Papic: so, okay, so
here's some homework for our,

600
00:30:57,135 --> 00:30:59,955
uh, for our, for our fans here.

601
00:31:00,795 --> 00:31:06,765
Um, so first of all, go and watch,
uh, Richard Reeves' interview, uh,

602
00:31:06,765 --> 00:31:10,335
of Boys and Men and reframing debates
about gender on the Daily Show.

603
00:31:10,785 --> 00:31:14,625
Uh, this got, I think, uh, 267,000 views.

604
00:31:15,405 --> 00:31:19,035
It's on YouTube and he's
basically interviewed, um.

605
00:31:19,860 --> 00:31:24,990
By Desi Lid, who is one of the anchors
of the Daily Show, rotating anchors.

606
00:31:25,620 --> 00:31:30,750
And effectively, like, it's a hilarious
interview because this guy who worked

607
00:31:30,750 --> 00:31:36,090
for Nick Clegg of the Liberal Democratic
Party of the United Kingdom, probably

608
00:31:36,090 --> 00:31:42,510
the most socially liberal party in the
United Kingdom, um, wrote a book that

609
00:31:42,510 --> 00:31:47,160
says that boys have fallen behind and Desi
lytic can't stop by making fun of him.

610
00:31:47,340 --> 00:31:49,830
You know, it's like, this
is ridiculous, right?

611
00:31:49,860 --> 00:31:51,870
Like, but men are toxic.

612
00:31:52,380 --> 00:31:56,580
Um, and he has a real problem with the,
the term toxic masculinity, you know?

613
00:31:57,090 --> 00:32:02,340
Um, and he makes a really good point,
which is that we have basically decided

614
00:32:02,340 --> 00:32:03,930
that this is a ridiculous conversation.

615
00:32:04,380 --> 00:32:08,250
Anyone who has a conversation about
boys falling behind is clearly a right

616
00:32:08,250 --> 00:32:12,720
wing lunatic, and therefore we're
gonna just let them join the Russian

617
00:32:12,720 --> 00:32:18,450
Orthodox Church of America and you know,
God, and then, and then learn how to.

618
00:32:19,004 --> 00:32:23,264
Become men from, from
much, much worse options.

619
00:32:23,774 --> 00:32:27,344
And that's, I think that's where
the establishment really is.

620
00:32:27,344 --> 00:32:34,995
Deaf and, you know, um, how to raise boys,
how to, how to integrate men into society

621
00:32:34,995 --> 00:32:37,094
when you know the easy jobs are gone.

622
00:32:37,905 --> 00:32:42,614
That's a really important issue
and shouldn't be left to YouTubers

623
00:32:42,675 --> 00:32:49,334
and podcasters and, you know,
various like Reddit threads to solve

624
00:32:49,875 --> 00:32:51,254
Jacob Shapiro: so that, well, and I
don't know how you've, I don't know how

625
00:32:51,254 --> 00:32:54,764
you feel about this, arguably is going
to get much worse if the promise of AI

626
00:32:54,764 --> 00:32:56,354
is everything that people say it is.

627
00:32:56,594 --> 00:32:56,774
Okay.

628
00:32:56,774 --> 00:33:00,854
So first it came for the manufacturing
jobs, but how about the lawyers and the

629
00:33:00,854 --> 00:33:05,294
architects and the engineers and the, even
some of the doctors and things like that?

630
00:33:05,294 --> 00:33:06,885
Like what happens when,

631
00:33:07,334 --> 00:33:09,074
Marko Papic: well, most doctors
and lawyers are now women.

632
00:33:09,135 --> 00:33:10,364
Jacobs so.

633
00:33:11,520 --> 00:33:11,860
Jacob Shapiro: You know?

634
00:33:12,010 --> 00:33:12,645
Well, okay.

635
00:33:12,705 --> 00:33:13,754
Like, it's gonna come for them too.

636
00:33:13,754 --> 00:33:17,024
I'm just saying like, you've already
got like this like, like tip, like,

637
00:33:17,235 --> 00:33:20,264
like they're losing like professional
avenues for accomplishment.

638
00:33:20,264 --> 00:33:23,294
Like what happens when, well, there
is an anecdote, I've said this on my

639
00:33:23,294 --> 00:33:27,165
other podcast where, um, some, some
friends that I have in North Dakota,

640
00:33:27,735 --> 00:33:32,625
the, the men in the, like the young boys
college age don't want to go to college.

641
00:33:32,955 --> 00:33:35,745
They want to go to electrician
school or trade school or whatever

642
00:33:35,745 --> 00:33:38,865
else, and just make a hundred grand
or 150 grand, be an electrician and

643
00:33:38,865 --> 00:33:39,885
they're totally happy with that.

644
00:33:39,885 --> 00:33:41,835
Or be a stone mason or
something like that.

645
00:33:41,840 --> 00:33:42,060
Marko Papic: Yeah.

646
00:33:42,060 --> 00:33:43,365
Well that's not a bad idea.

647
00:33:43,365 --> 00:33:46,365
I mean, I think that that's where one
of the things that President Trump

648
00:33:46,725 --> 00:33:50,294
said was that he wants to redirect this
funding from Harvard to trade schools.

649
00:33:51,555 --> 00:33:55,155
So, I mean, there isn't, there
is, there is an argument for that.

650
00:33:55,215 --> 00:33:55,635
Um.

651
00:33:56,460 --> 00:33:59,550
Obviously it doesn't have to be
redirected from Harvard, but the truth

652
00:33:59,550 --> 00:34:02,760
is that in Germany, for example, not
everybody does get to go to university.

653
00:34:02,940 --> 00:34:06,540
Uh, I mean, you, you get a chance,
but, uh, if you're not good enough,

654
00:34:06,960 --> 00:34:11,280
um, quite a, quite a lot of people
end up going to a two year program.

655
00:34:11,639 --> 00:34:12,720
I don't wanna call it a trade school.

656
00:34:12,720 --> 00:34:14,010
It's not necessarily a trade school.

657
00:34:14,010 --> 00:34:16,710
It can be a two year
program for hospitality.

658
00:34:16,710 --> 00:34:20,250
It can be, uh, you know, a two
year program for like a, like

659
00:34:20,250 --> 00:34:21,720
an accelerated business degree.

660
00:34:21,990 --> 00:34:24,750
The point is there is other
alternatives other than the university.

661
00:34:24,960 --> 00:34:28,409
Um, but, but you know, what's, what's
interesting to me about all this is

662
00:34:28,409 --> 00:34:34,860
that, um, it, it requires I think,
acceptance of some of the problems.

663
00:34:34,860 --> 00:34:38,970
For example, with climate change,
it is very expensive to transition

664
00:34:38,970 --> 00:34:42,570
to an electronic vehicle, electric
vehicle, you know, so we need

665
00:34:42,570 --> 00:34:43,560
to take that into account.

666
00:34:43,590 --> 00:34:48,060
Putting taxes and gasoline, uh, may
make sense if you are in the city.

667
00:34:49,440 --> 00:34:49,890
Fine.

668
00:34:50,010 --> 00:34:51,390
Like totally got it.

669
00:34:51,390 --> 00:34:54,990
You may not need to go to target with
your car, like take public transportation,

670
00:34:55,350 --> 00:35:00,390
but if you live in a rural part of the
United States of America, um, you know,

671
00:35:00,390 --> 00:35:03,660
you may believe in climate change, you
may wanna mitigate it, but you don't

672
00:35:03,660 --> 00:35:05,220
have public transportation systems.

673
00:35:05,220 --> 00:35:07,770
So that's not the best way
to mitigate this issue.

674
00:35:07,980 --> 00:35:12,900
For example, all I'm saying about this
is that I do think there's callousness.

675
00:35:12,930 --> 00:35:13,710
That's what I would say.

676
00:35:14,220 --> 00:35:15,150
I think the left.

677
00:35:15,155 --> 00:35:15,375
Mm-hmm.

678
00:35:15,480 --> 00:35:18,480
And the liberal mainstream has
been callous when it comes to these

679
00:35:18,480 --> 00:35:24,030
issues, dismisses them as nonsensical
and doesn't wanna discuss them.

680
00:35:24,090 --> 00:35:27,690
And I think this 15 minute
interview between Richard Reeves

681
00:35:27,690 --> 00:35:31,590
and Desi Lytic is like a perfect
example of that callousness.

682
00:35:31,590 --> 00:35:34,050
Now, God bless her, she's a comic.

683
00:35:34,470 --> 00:35:37,200
It's not her job to
interview the man properly.

684
00:35:37,710 --> 00:35:41,070
Um, but I thought that that was,
that was a very, very good, uh,

685
00:35:41,070 --> 00:35:42,180
way to kind of think about this.

686
00:35:42,180 --> 00:35:45,330
And that's why this BBC article,
you know, comics, uh, attention.

687
00:35:45,330 --> 00:35:46,710
That's why we spend 35 minutes.

688
00:35:47,250 --> 00:35:53,490
Basically talking about it because, um,
BBC, I mean, on one hand, really good

689
00:35:53,490 --> 00:35:56,009
job on shining a light in this issue.

690
00:35:56,310 --> 00:35:59,609
On the other hand, they are
making fun of it themselves.

691
00:35:59,609 --> 00:36:03,660
They're saying like, look at these
idiots in central Texas, you know,

692
00:36:03,660 --> 00:36:05,970
finding appeal in Russian orthodoxy.

693
00:36:06,029 --> 00:36:07,649
Like, how, how stupid is that?

694
00:36:08,009 --> 00:36:11,009
But what they're not really, uh,
examining, and it's not their job,

695
00:36:11,009 --> 00:36:15,089
they're just journalists, but what they're
not examining is why, why do mm-hmm.

696
00:36:15,540 --> 00:36:20,430
You know, young men starting families
find a need to, you know, like appeal to

697
00:36:20,430 --> 00:36:24,270
some sort of a higher power in order to
feel, uh, comfortable with who they are.

698
00:36:24,299 --> 00:36:29,009
And that's, and that's I think, a deeper
social issue that's maybe at the crux of

699
00:36:29,009 --> 00:36:36,779
almost all of our increasing, you know,
increasing levels of, of toxic ways to

700
00:36:36,779 --> 00:36:41,609
achieve Uber manliness, which includes,
uh, toxic forms of nationalism, jingoism.

701
00:36:42,540 --> 00:36:45,960
You know, trade tensions, a lot
of this stuff at its root cause

702
00:36:46,230 --> 00:36:48,060
may be a biological reality.

703
00:36:48,540 --> 00:36:54,180
We have finally broken down discrimination
against women, and that's awesome.

704
00:36:54,390 --> 00:36:54,600
Yeah.

705
00:36:54,600 --> 00:36:56,669
And not all of it, again,
it's not perfect, but we've

706
00:36:56,669 --> 00:36:57,839
broken down a lot of it.

707
00:36:58,379 --> 00:37:02,879
But that has created this interesting
consequence, which is that men and

708
00:37:02,879 --> 00:37:04,680
women don't develop at the same pace.

709
00:37:04,680 --> 00:37:10,169
And so by the time they're 18 years
old, men should be behind, given the

710
00:37:10,169 --> 00:37:12,509
biological realities of the two of them.

711
00:37:12,779 --> 00:37:13,890
And I think that's fascinating.

712
00:37:15,000 --> 00:37:18,089
And Dan might be, and, and
it really, yeah, sorry.

713
00:37:18,089 --> 00:37:21,810
Uh, permanent gendering almost of
politics, you know, which is, uh,

714
00:37:21,810 --> 00:37:23,189
which, which is not a good thing.

715
00:37:23,879 --> 00:37:27,060
That is not, you know, politics
should not be gendered.

716
00:37:28,485 --> 00:37:31,335
Jacob Shapiro: Well, and going back to our
Russian values visa, like there's a reason

717
00:37:31,335 --> 00:37:35,025
that Vladimir Putin, like made Ukraine,
like, you know, he wanted to deify them,

718
00:37:35,025 --> 00:37:39,105
but also that Ukraine was like, you know,
this source of like sexual promiscuous.

719
00:37:39,435 --> 00:37:42,525
And there's, you know, gay people running
around Kyiv and they've abandoned the

720
00:37:42,525 --> 00:37:45,855
values of Russian Orthodoxy and like, we
have to get the back into the Russian fo.

721
00:37:45,855 --> 00:37:49,275
Like this was part of the rhetorical
cocktail that justified this, and

722
00:37:49,275 --> 00:37:50,535
as Russian men going to fight.

723
00:37:50,535 --> 00:37:52,600
So that's what you're, you're getting
if you get the Russian value piece.

724
00:37:52,640 --> 00:37:53,384
Marko Papic: I love the way you put it.

725
00:37:53,384 --> 00:37:54,855
Put that again, what kind of cocktail?

726
00:37:56,055 --> 00:37:57,735
Jacob Shapiro: What did I I
I've, I've already blacked out.

727
00:37:57,735 --> 00:37:58,215
What did I say?

728
00:37:58,275 --> 00:38:00,735
Marko Papic: Well, no, I mean,
it's, it's this toxic cocktail.

729
00:38:00,735 --> 00:38:01,185
You're right.

730
00:38:01,515 --> 00:38:06,795
That definitely got, um, used
for Russia versus Ukraine.

731
00:38:06,800 --> 00:38:10,515
But, but even the tariffs, even this
idea of bringing manufacturing back

732
00:38:10,515 --> 00:38:16,125
to the US it appeals to a sort of a
lost individual sitting somewhere in

733
00:38:16,125 --> 00:38:20,384
Oklahoma or Indianapolis or whatever,
and saying to themselves like, Hey,

734
00:38:20,715 --> 00:38:24,495
if only we didn't have globalization,
I would be in a better spot.

735
00:38:25,830 --> 00:38:29,190
And first of all, that's ridiculous
because when we do return manufacturing

736
00:38:29,190 --> 00:38:33,660
to America, you are not gonna be
in that factory unless it's to oil

737
00:38:33,660 --> 00:38:36,420
the automated robots, you know?

738
00:38:36,420 --> 00:38:38,245
So like you will still
not have a good job.

739
00:38:39,015 --> 00:38:41,355
Whoever you are out there, but I'm
pretty sure you're not listening

740
00:38:41,355 --> 00:38:42,705
to Jacob Shapiro and Marco Bob.

741
00:38:43,875 --> 00:38:44,295
Um,

742
00:38:44,505 --> 00:38:47,685
Jacob Shapiro: you know, and, and this,
this was actually like on Fox News.

743
00:38:47,685 --> 00:38:49,965
Like, uh, Fox News has Jesse Waters.

744
00:38:50,205 --> 00:38:52,365
He did a whole segment, uh, what was this?

745
00:38:52,365 --> 00:38:53,685
In, in April.

746
00:38:54,045 --> 00:38:57,645
The segment was, could Trump's tariffs
be the ultimate testosterone boost?

747
00:38:58,185 --> 00:39:00,260
He's called everything from
grocery shopping to eating

748
00:39:00,330 --> 00:39:01,605
soup in public feminine.

749
00:39:01,605 --> 00:39:03,975
I wonder if he's visiting
with Father Moses.

750
00:39:04,485 --> 00:39:05,415
Uh, and you know.

751
00:39:08,915 --> 00:39:09,935
Marko Papic: Like you are.

752
00:39:10,205 --> 00:39:10,490
So, I dunno, I

753
00:39:10,495 --> 00:39:11,375
Jacob Shapiro: make a great soup.

754
00:39:11,375 --> 00:39:12,609
I mean, you're outside ridiculous.

755
00:39:12,609 --> 00:39:15,694
Marko Papic: You're working, there's
like smoke billowing out of the soup.

756
00:39:15,694 --> 00:39:17,404
Like this is, this is very manly.

757
00:39:17,464 --> 00:39:20,615
Like you try eating a soup
made by a Serbian grandmother.

758
00:39:20,734 --> 00:39:21,185
God.

759
00:39:21,455 --> 00:39:21,785
Jacob Shapiro: But listen.

760
00:39:21,790 --> 00:39:23,944
And, and he said when you, he
said, when you sit behind a screen

761
00:39:23,944 --> 00:39:25,415
all day, it makes you a woman's.

762
00:39:25,415 --> 00:39:26,375
Studies have shown this.

763
00:39:26,375 --> 00:39:29,705
And then there was another, uh, another
person who came on the program that

764
00:39:29,705 --> 00:39:32,795
said that Trump's trade policies, to
your point, we'll fix the crisis of

765
00:39:32,795 --> 00:39:36,125
masculinity stemming from the loss
of manual labor jobs in America.

766
00:39:36,125 --> 00:39:37,115
So this is not academic.

767
00:39:37,115 --> 00:39:39,515
Like if you're listening to this
and being like, uh, Marco and Jacob

768
00:39:39,515 --> 00:39:41,674
retired, they're, they're searching
for something to talk about.

769
00:39:41,884 --> 00:39:42,694
No, no, no, no.

770
00:39:42,694 --> 00:39:44,975
This is like actually the top of the fold.

771
00:39:45,125 --> 00:39:48,694
Like in, like, not just in the Joe Rogan
universe, in the Fox news universe,

772
00:39:48,694 --> 00:39:50,674
in the mainstream like right wing

773
00:39:50,674 --> 00:39:50,944
Marko Papic: universe.

774
00:39:50,944 --> 00:39:51,245
Well see.

775
00:39:51,245 --> 00:39:52,504
But see, this is what I'm getting at.

776
00:39:52,504 --> 00:39:54,484
Now we can sit here and
make fun of it, right?

777
00:39:54,484 --> 00:39:55,926
Or we can say, okay, okay, okay.

778
00:39:55,932 --> 00:39:58,714
But like, but why does it appeal?

779
00:39:58,745 --> 00:40:00,725
First of all, I just gotta be very clear.

780
00:40:00,904 --> 00:40:03,484
There will be no expansion
of manufacturing jobs in the

781
00:40:03,515 --> 00:40:04,295
United States of America.

782
00:40:04,325 --> 00:40:05,105
It's not gonna happen.

783
00:40:05,404 --> 00:40:06,455
It is not gonna happen.

784
00:40:06,605 --> 00:40:07,955
Zero chance that that happens.

785
00:40:07,955 --> 00:40:08,435
Zero.

786
00:40:09,194 --> 00:40:11,055
Let's, you know, I'll
find anyone about it.

787
00:40:11,535 --> 00:40:14,895
Um, and I ate soup from a Serbian
grandmother, so come get me.

788
00:40:14,895 --> 00:40:18,674
You know, like, and so like, so, okay,
so five years from now, when we look at

789
00:40:18,674 --> 00:40:21,705
the numbers and we see like there was a
little bit of a hiccup in manufacturing

790
00:40:21,705 --> 00:40:27,045
jobs, the point is the policy appeals
to this, like bringing testosterone

791
00:40:27,045 --> 00:40:30,855
back to America and then, you know,
the liberal left and establishment

792
00:40:30,855 --> 00:40:31,845
will say, well, this is stupid.

793
00:40:31,845 --> 00:40:34,125
There won't be any jobs in
America because Mark was right.

794
00:40:34,125 --> 00:40:34,904
It's automation.

795
00:40:34,904 --> 00:40:41,865
But we still haven't solved the fact that
a bunch of dudes find this appealing and

796
00:40:41,865 --> 00:40:45,345
they find it appealing because of the kind
of things that Richard Reeves talks in

797
00:40:45,345 --> 00:40:50,085
his book, not some right wing, lunatic,
centrist, liberal, Democrat from the

798
00:40:50,085 --> 00:40:52,095
United Kingdom with a PhD in geography.

799
00:40:52,095 --> 00:40:52,545
You know what I mean?

800
00:40:52,545 --> 00:40:53,535
Like this guy is.

801
00:40:54,075 --> 00:40:55,215
Just presenting facts.

802
00:40:55,215 --> 00:40:55,275
Yeah.

803
00:40:55,725 --> 00:41:00,585
Um, and we don't want to talk about those
facts because it somehow makes you less of

804
00:41:00,585 --> 00:41:05,055
a feminist or less pro women to point out
that boys are falling behind in education.

805
00:41:05,415 --> 00:41:09,195
And this, I can't stand this, I
can't stand this as an analyst 'cause

806
00:41:09,195 --> 00:41:10,215
this is what I do for a living.

807
00:41:10,425 --> 00:41:11,295
I'm just an analyst.

808
00:41:11,325 --> 00:41:16,095
I analyze problems and I hate it
when certain problems are colored

809
00:41:16,095 --> 00:41:19,485
by politics and you're not allowed
to even bring those problems up.

810
00:41:20,175 --> 00:41:25,665
Um, because it makes you somehow, you
know, not member of the establishment,

811
00:41:25,665 --> 00:41:26,895
which I obviously couldn't care less.

812
00:41:26,895 --> 00:41:30,345
'cause my clients pay me a lot of money
to not be part of the establishment.

813
00:41:30,585 --> 00:41:30,795
And

814
00:41:31,545 --> 00:41:33,705
Jacob Shapiro: really what we really,
what we need is all these young men

815
00:41:33,705 --> 00:41:37,245
to come listen to the two, the two
white cousins talk to each other about

816
00:41:37,245 --> 00:41:40,335
these issues and real, this is where
you will learn the art of manliness.

817
00:41:40,395 --> 00:41:42,165
Should we change the tag for the podcast?

818
00:41:42,165 --> 00:41:43,335
Like discovering the Art

819
00:41:44,055 --> 00:41:44,116
Marko Papic: of Man?

820
00:41:44,116 --> 00:41:44,118
Oh yes.

821
00:41:44,118 --> 00:41:46,815
Uber Manliness comes from listening
to Jacob Shapiro and Marco Parker.

822
00:41:46,815 --> 00:41:51,675
First of all, ranking a global powers
by geopolitics is pretty manly.

823
00:41:51,735 --> 00:41:52,305
I'm gonna say.

824
00:41:52,980 --> 00:41:53,705
Um, of course.

825
00:41:53,924 --> 00:41:58,230
And I mean, and also like, you
know, ranking the most geopolitical

826
00:41:58,230 --> 00:42:00,390
like sport movement moments.

827
00:42:00,690 --> 00:42:01,470
Like Yeah.

828
00:42:01,589 --> 00:42:03,120
I, I think, I think we're manly.

829
00:42:03,660 --> 00:42:06,870
Um, and I think it's funny to
be manly, by the way, and I

830
00:42:06,870 --> 00:42:07,950
think that's, uh, I think we're

831
00:42:07,950 --> 00:42:08,220
Jacob Smulian: manly.

832
00:42:08,670 --> 00:42:08,940
Marko Papic: I think

833
00:42:08,940 --> 00:42:09,420
Jacob Smulian: we're manly.

834
00:42:11,610 --> 00:42:14,265
Marko Papic: Please, uh,
validate my masculinity.

835
00:42:14,295 --> 00:42:14,585
Okay,

836
00:42:14,654 --> 00:42:16,950
Jacob Shapiro: well I'll, I'll, I'll
get us outta here on, on one personal

837
00:42:16,950 --> 00:42:20,009
story, or, or you can, you can respond to
it, which is, 'cause I, I, I'm gonna go

838
00:42:20,009 --> 00:42:23,009
read this book that you rec recommended
with Reeves, and I went through my list

839
00:42:23,009 --> 00:42:24,360
of like, potential reasons for this.

840
00:42:24,360 --> 00:42:27,029
But the, it sounds like from the book
that you mentioned that he's really

841
00:42:27,029 --> 00:42:30,900
talking about, it's actually a biological,
physical thing, the way that's education

842
00:42:30,900 --> 00:42:31,985
structures are set up The beginning.

843
00:42:33,299 --> 00:42:33,810
The beginning, yeah.

844
00:42:33,810 --> 00:42:33,871
The beginning.

845
00:42:34,615 --> 00:42:34,904
Okay.

846
00:42:34,904 --> 00:42:36,600
And then, then he gets
into the other stuff.

847
00:42:36,870 --> 00:42:38,040
Marko Papic: Why do girls crush it?

848
00:42:38,100 --> 00:42:38,910
Like that's the idea.

849
00:42:38,910 --> 00:42:42,750
Like girls are crushing it and it's, you
know, because they're biologically more

850
00:42:42,750 --> 00:42:45,390
advanced at the early part of their life.

851
00:42:45,390 --> 00:42:47,400
They just, uh, they mature faster.

852
00:42:47,880 --> 00:42:52,890
Which by the way, if you have children,
when I, I have two daughters, well,

853
00:42:52,890 --> 00:42:54,720
and I have two daughters and a son.

854
00:42:55,950 --> 00:42:59,940
And I remember going to my wife when my
son was about 18 months old, and I said

855
00:42:59,940 --> 00:43:01,500
like, we should, we should get him tested.

856
00:43:02,220 --> 00:43:05,520
I think, I think, I think, you know,
there's something mentally wrong with him.

857
00:43:06,330 --> 00:43:09,150
And she went to me and she's
like, no, he's just a boy.

858
00:43:09,420 --> 00:43:13,650
And your first child was a girl and so
you're anchoring to her development.

859
00:43:14,610 --> 00:43:15,240
And I was like.

860
00:43:15,870 --> 00:43:17,310
Oh, okay.

861
00:43:19,530 --> 00:43:20,430
So not wrong.

862
00:43:20,490 --> 00:43:23,520
Like I've lived the experience,
but I've also lived and before,

863
00:43:23,550 --> 00:43:25,230
uh, sorry to No, no, you're good.

864
00:43:25,230 --> 00:43:27,090
Interject with my personal story to yours.

865
00:43:27,120 --> 00:43:31,950
Um, this is very personal to me because
I have witnessed in the educational

866
00:43:31,950 --> 00:43:38,220
system across both Quebec and California,
subtle ways in which young boys

867
00:43:38,220 --> 00:43:43,830
are being discriminated sometimes,
sometimes for just being like, you know,

868
00:43:43,830 --> 00:43:46,650
neurotic little, you know, shitheads.

869
00:43:46,740 --> 00:43:50,010
They're just being, you know, like
in, in the case of my son as, as an

870
00:43:50,010 --> 00:43:54,000
example, I mean, I was in a meeting
in his kindergarten, you know, the

871
00:43:54,000 --> 00:43:56,070
poor kids didn't speak any French.

872
00:43:56,130 --> 00:44:00,690
And the kindergarten teacher, the
principal and my wife kind of ganged up

873
00:44:00,690 --> 00:44:07,470
on him and, uh, in, in ways that were like
projecting societal problems on like, the

874
00:44:07,470 --> 00:44:09,390
principal literally uttered the words.

875
00:44:09,750 --> 00:44:12,300
Does he have problem respecting women?

876
00:44:12,835 --> 00:44:14,400
Now, this is a five-year-old boy.

877
00:44:15,480 --> 00:44:18,420
You know, and everybody in the room.

878
00:44:18,840 --> 00:44:21,600
Every woman in the room was
like, kind of nodding knowingly.

879
00:44:21,840 --> 00:44:25,440
And I was like, no, he's a 6-year-old.

880
00:44:25,440 --> 00:44:27,000
He's 5-year-old.

881
00:44:27,780 --> 00:44:28,200
Shithead.

882
00:44:28,290 --> 00:44:31,320
He has trouble respecting
anybody, you know?

883
00:44:31,500 --> 00:44:35,490
Um, but anyways, that's, that's, that's,
I think, uh, anyone who's actually

884
00:44:35,490 --> 00:44:39,570
raised kids in today's world, I think
can, can relate to some of these issues.

885
00:44:40,020 --> 00:44:40,740
And, uh.

886
00:44:41,040 --> 00:44:44,520
And it's, you know, that's why it's
a very interesting topic for me.

887
00:44:45,450 --> 00:44:49,110
Jacob Shapiro: Well, and just my personal
anecdote on this, um, listeners may

888
00:44:49,110 --> 00:44:51,960
know this, I don't know if you know
this, uh, Marco, I was a proud member

889
00:44:51,960 --> 00:44:53,340
of the Cornell University Glee Club.

890
00:44:53,430 --> 00:44:56,160
I was also the Omega for two
years in the row in the Glee Club.

891
00:44:56,160 --> 00:44:59,009
So that meant that I had the
lowest voice in the entire Cornell

892
00:44:59,009 --> 00:45:00,330
University Glee Club for two years.

893
00:45:00,330 --> 00:45:01,890
We would compete to see
who had the lowest voice.

894
00:45:02,040 --> 00:45:05,190
That, by the way, makes me way
more manly than Father Moses.

895
00:45:05,190 --> 00:45:08,310
I have sung the Rah Madoff Vespers
and I can hit the low be flat.

896
00:45:08,310 --> 00:45:11,460
Father Moses, I bet you can't do that
with all of your aversion towards

897
00:45:11,460 --> 00:45:12,630
soup and all of your nonsense.

898
00:45:12,990 --> 00:45:16,770
Anyway, Cornell University Glee Club
was an all male group when I was there.

899
00:45:17,100 --> 00:45:20,130
And, um, it was honestly where
I learned not to be a shithead.

900
00:45:20,520 --> 00:45:23,430
I was exposed to like all sorts of.

901
00:45:23,820 --> 00:45:28,080
Male diversity and like it was okay to
not only was it okay to feel things,

902
00:45:28,080 --> 00:45:32,370
you had to feel things in order to sing
well and to be a good musician and like

903
00:45:32,370 --> 00:45:35,820
unpacking all of the baggage of you're not
supposed to be feeling, you're supposed

904
00:45:35,820 --> 00:45:39,690
to be masculine, you're not like, like
the Glee Club was like where most of

905
00:45:39,690 --> 00:45:42,720
that stuff got rehabilitated for me and
I learned that you could be emotional

906
00:45:42,720 --> 00:45:44,100
and masculine at the same time anyway.

907
00:45:44,100 --> 00:45:45,870
Like, not to make this
like a, a therapy session.

908
00:45:45,870 --> 00:45:46,980
The reason I'm bringing it up.

909
00:45:47,535 --> 00:45:51,345
It's because in the last couple of years,
the Cornell University Glee Club, it's

910
00:45:51,345 --> 00:45:54,944
not all male, and they've stripped all
references to things like brotherhood

911
00:45:54,944 --> 00:45:58,185
and fraternity and things like that
because they wanted to make it more

912
00:45:58,185 --> 00:46:02,085
inclusive and they wanted anybody who
was the right voice part be able to

913
00:46:02,085 --> 00:46:04,904
join the Cornell University Glee Club,
even though there was also, there's

914
00:46:04,904 --> 00:46:07,665
an all female group too, the Cornell
versus cor, the Cornell University

915
00:46:07,665 --> 00:46:12,855
Chorus and other like, you know, um,
um, other choirs that you can join if

916
00:46:12,855 --> 00:46:16,035
you want boys and girls or male and
female voice parts and things like that.

917
00:46:16,125 --> 00:46:19,935
And I'm just saying like, um, like,
like maybe it's the biological

918
00:46:19,935 --> 00:46:22,964
thing, maybe it's consumerism,
maybe it's the loss of manufacturing

919
00:46:22,964 --> 00:46:23,865
jobs, all these other things.

920
00:46:23,865 --> 00:46:27,705
I just like the fact that in my own
lifetime I saw the institution that

921
00:46:27,705 --> 00:46:29,625
like helped me work all the shit out.

922
00:46:29,984 --> 00:46:35,384
Really no longer exists because it's not
politically correct to have hey, just

923
00:46:35,384 --> 00:46:39,525
dudes here, like just dudes figuring
out how to be dudes and like in a

924
00:46:39,525 --> 00:46:43,575
really productive, like really open
like way, but like that's not okay.

925
00:46:43,845 --> 00:46:43,904
Yeah.

926
00:46:43,904 --> 00:46:44,295
Everything.

927
00:46:44,295 --> 00:46:44,355
Yeah.

928
00:46:44,355 --> 00:46:44,415
I'm.

929
00:46:45,300 --> 00:46:48,780
Marko Papic: Uh, it, it, it is, it
is a great example because I'm, I'm,

930
00:46:48,870 --> 00:46:55,320
I'm positive I would bet anything I
own that the Cornell Glee Club is not

931
00:46:55,320 --> 00:46:58,560
a source of toxic masculinity facts

932
00:47:00,210 --> 00:47:02,670
Jacob Shapiro: and, and cured
me of some of my own, like,

933
00:47:02,760 --> 00:47:04,110
like boxes in that direction.

934
00:47:04,110 --> 00:47:04,410
Yes.

935
00:47:04,410 --> 00:47:04,650
You know?

936
00:47:04,890 --> 00:47:05,400
Marko Papic: Exactly.

937
00:47:05,400 --> 00:47:06,030
Of course.

938
00:47:06,390 --> 00:47:06,600
Yeah.

939
00:47:06,600 --> 00:47:08,040
No, that's, that's a great example.

940
00:47:08,040 --> 00:47:10,320
But, um, let's go to
the Visa for a second.

941
00:47:10,320 --> 00:47:13,980
So, basically there's a clear
problem in, in the West that

942
00:47:14,040 --> 00:47:15,510
you and I have identified.

943
00:47:15,570 --> 00:47:16,890
Richard Reeves talks about it too.

944
00:47:17,220 --> 00:47:20,280
Uh, we all understand it, what
to do with men and Russia goes

945
00:47:20,280 --> 00:47:22,260
like, he, we've got a solution.

946
00:47:22,470 --> 00:47:25,200
Come to Russia, you know,
and you could be a man.

947
00:47:25,650 --> 00:47:30,330
Um, and that got me thinking,
first of all, God bless Russia.

948
00:47:31,440 --> 00:47:33,840
All is fair in love and war.

949
00:47:33,930 --> 00:47:36,150
I have no problem with the Visa program.

950
00:47:36,390 --> 00:47:37,500
God bless you.

951
00:47:37,980 --> 00:47:40,020
Yes, yes.

952
00:47:40,290 --> 00:47:41,100
Do it.

953
00:47:41,400 --> 00:47:42,240
In fact.

954
00:47:42,840 --> 00:47:46,230
You know, if you don't feel comfortable
being a man in America, go ahead,

955
00:47:46,230 --> 00:47:47,550
pack your bags, go to Russia.

956
00:47:47,550 --> 00:47:48,360
I have no problem.

957
00:47:48,360 --> 00:47:49,800
It's a, it's a free world baby.

958
00:47:50,100 --> 00:47:54,990
And if Vladimir is, is welcoming you
to Russia and you wanna take him up, I

959
00:47:54,990 --> 00:47:57,120
have absolutely no problem with this.

960
00:47:57,120 --> 00:48:01,500
I would not impede, I would not
punish, I would not, I would not do

961
00:48:01,530 --> 00:48:03,240
anything to people who wanna do this.

962
00:48:04,260 --> 00:48:04,620
But

963
00:48:08,190 --> 00:48:11,790
I think this is brilliant
and I don't understand why

964
00:48:11,820 --> 00:48:13,350
the west doesn't do the same.

965
00:48:14,490 --> 00:48:22,260
You see, I think it's high time that,
um, we separate immigration into buckets.

966
00:48:23,130 --> 00:48:27,930
You know, you can have immigration
plan to bring labor into the country.

967
00:48:28,110 --> 00:48:28,560
Fine.

968
00:48:28,800 --> 00:48:29,580
Like, makes sense.

969
00:48:29,850 --> 00:48:32,070
But why not have offensive
immigration policy?

970
00:48:33,360 --> 00:48:37,800
Like if you have a certain level
of education and you are from

971
00:48:37,800 --> 00:48:42,180
a country that's an adversary,
we want to like a vampire.

972
00:48:42,585 --> 00:48:45,855
Suck your educated, smart
people out of the country.

973
00:48:47,145 --> 00:48:51,615
And so, you know, I've jokingly proposed
this in the past, like when Russia

974
00:48:51,615 --> 00:48:54,975
invade Ukraine, I would've just said, I
would've opened all the consulates, all

975
00:48:54,975 --> 00:48:58,125
the embassies in Russia and said, Hey man,
if you have a master's degree and above

976
00:48:58,695 --> 00:49:03,285
like free green cards to America now, of
course there's like, no, there's gonna

977
00:49:03,285 --> 00:49:10,245
be a ton of spies that come, like, come
across the pond, obviously, obviously.

978
00:49:10,515 --> 00:49:13,005
But eh, so what, you know,
what does the FBI do anyways?

979
00:49:13,005 --> 00:49:13,785
Like, there you go.

980
00:49:13,785 --> 00:49:14,535
Jobs program.

981
00:49:14,835 --> 00:49:17,325
Go, go make sure these
people are not spies.

982
00:49:17,685 --> 00:49:22,425
The point is, I think that, um, when
you, when you think about the West

983
00:49:22,425 --> 00:49:27,195
versus Russia or versus China or versus
any other adversary, I think it's a

984
00:49:27,195 --> 00:49:30,435
fair point to say that the quality
of life is much better in the West.

985
00:49:30,585 --> 00:49:33,255
I mean, anyone who
doesn't say that is like.

986
00:49:33,645 --> 00:49:35,505
Clearly lost their marbles.

987
00:49:35,925 --> 00:49:39,975
And the point is, yeah, I mean, I think
that what Russia is doing is a great

988
00:49:39,975 --> 00:49:42,375
example of offensive immigration policy.

989
00:49:42,795 --> 00:49:45,255
And um, God bless them,
they're allowed to do that.

990
00:49:45,405 --> 00:49:48,645
It is, like I said, all fair,
all is fair in love and war.

991
00:49:48,855 --> 00:49:55,005
I think the US should be adopting
the same policy, but here we see the

992
00:49:55,005 --> 00:49:57,645
ideological uniformity of the right wing.

993
00:49:58,305 --> 00:50:03,375
We, we spent the first 45 minutes
effectively criticizing the ideological

994
00:50:03,375 --> 00:50:05,325
rigidity and uniformity of the left.

995
00:50:06,015 --> 00:50:10,485
The problem with the right is that it's
has its own ideological, sacred cause.

996
00:50:10,485 --> 00:50:13,965
And one of them is immigrants are
bad and immigration itself is some

997
00:50:13,965 --> 00:50:20,595
sort of a tool, uh, with which the
left is trying to like, um, reduce

998
00:50:20,595 --> 00:50:22,485
the white population of America.

999
00:50:22,845 --> 00:50:26,205
But there is, there are, there are
ways in which immigration has in the

1000
00:50:26,205 --> 00:50:29,355
past been used, um, quite offensively.

1001
00:50:29,355 --> 00:50:31,545
And I think that this would
be one of the ways to do that.

1002
00:50:31,545 --> 00:50:32,745
So I actually, um.

1003
00:50:33,134 --> 00:50:35,444
I support the Russian, uh, what is it?

1004
00:50:35,654 --> 00:50:36,734
Value visa.

1005
00:50:36,734 --> 00:50:37,904
I think it's a great idea.

1006
00:50:37,904 --> 00:50:38,024
It's

1007
00:50:38,024 --> 00:50:38,415
Jacob Shapiro: a value visa.

1008
00:50:38,805 --> 00:50:39,225
Marko Papic: Yes.

1009
00:50:39,285 --> 00:50:40,065
Value visa.

1010
00:50:40,065 --> 00:50:45,464
And I think that, um, you know, it,
it's, it's not just a way to, um,

1011
00:50:45,524 --> 00:50:47,415
anger the American establishment.

1012
00:50:47,415 --> 00:50:52,875
I think it's a way for them to like,
basically suck some talent into Russia.

1013
00:50:53,115 --> 00:50:55,845
But I, I don't think anyone's
really gonna apply it to that visa.

1014
00:50:55,845 --> 00:50:56,984
I mean, it's gonna be very small.

1015
00:50:57,254 --> 00:51:01,964
I think if the reverse happened and if
the West started appealing to really

1016
00:51:01,964 --> 00:51:07,125
smart, educated Russians, I think
that you would see, um, a huge exodus.

1017
00:51:07,154 --> 00:51:07,725
Huge.

1018
00:51:07,785 --> 00:51:11,115
And in fact, most of the Russians who
are educated, who are just trying to

1019
00:51:11,205 --> 00:51:15,884
work and raise families, they actually
moved to places like Tbilisi in Georgia.

1020
00:51:16,004 --> 00:51:18,044
They moved to Belgrade in Serbia.

1021
00:51:18,674 --> 00:51:23,955
And, uh, it's, it's shocking
that the West is effectively

1022
00:51:23,955 --> 00:51:25,995
treating all Russians the same.

1023
00:51:25,995 --> 00:51:27,915
I mean, that's on some level.

1024
00:51:28,305 --> 00:51:31,155
Like ethicist, it's racist.

1025
00:51:31,485 --> 00:51:35,835
Similarly, with all Chinese treating
everyone the same, if these are

1026
00:51:35,835 --> 00:51:41,205
your adversaries, if these are your
geopolitical rivals, then absolutely

1027
00:51:41,355 --> 00:51:45,825
it makes sense to drain them of their
human capital and their talent by

1028
00:51:45,975 --> 00:51:49,875
making an appeal to them, making it
easier for them to come as international

1029
00:51:49,875 --> 00:51:52,005
students and as professionals.

1030
00:51:54,075 --> 00:51:56,985
Jacob Shapiro: Preaching to the choir, but
the, the US is doing the exact opposite.

1031
00:51:56,985 --> 00:52:01,635
The US is basically making it impossible
for, uh, you know, advanced students from

1032
00:52:01,635 --> 00:52:03,765
any countries to come to US universities.

1033
00:52:03,795 --> 00:52:04,280
So, so

1034
00:52:04,285 --> 00:52:07,485
Marko Papic: let's pivot to that
because I know that you're, uh, you're

1035
00:52:07,485 --> 00:52:08,925
interested in that, in that part.

1036
00:52:08,985 --> 00:52:10,000
Uh, you tweeted No, no, I, I,

1037
00:52:10,000 --> 00:52:11,745
Jacob Shapiro: I, I, I don't
think we have to pivot to that.

1038
00:52:11,745 --> 00:52:14,415
I think we've got some other stuff to
talk about, but just like, like it's,

1039
00:52:14,415 --> 00:52:18,255
it's shocking guys we're talking about
this, that like, like actually the

1040
00:52:18,315 --> 00:52:21,045
Trump administration is doing the exact
opposite of what you're talking about.

1041
00:52:21,265 --> 00:52:24,834
Like, like, and maybe they, you know,
uh, I saw, I think it was Rubio out there

1042
00:52:24,834 --> 00:52:28,674
claiming that they just need to expand
social media vetting before they, you

1043
00:52:28,674 --> 00:52:30,354
know, restart student visa interviews.

1044
00:52:30,354 --> 00:52:34,705
But they've halted student visa interviews
for the entire world trying to get to

1045
00:52:34,705 --> 00:52:37,975
US universities as they're like trying
to get, you know, trying to get funding

1046
00:52:37,975 --> 00:52:39,265
sources away from the universities.

1047
00:52:39,265 --> 00:52:42,595
And you're taking away that sweet, sweet
international student like tuition.

1048
00:52:42,595 --> 00:52:45,595
Like it's just gonna, like
irrevocably change the face of US

1049
00:52:45,595 --> 00:52:47,095
science and it's gonna open up.

1050
00:52:47,274 --> 00:52:49,975
They're not gonna go for the Russian
values visa, but Japan is trying

1051
00:52:49,975 --> 00:52:51,654
to attract more skilled labor.

1052
00:52:51,654 --> 00:52:54,654
Japan, like, like they're
trying to attract immigrants.

1053
00:52:54,654 --> 00:52:57,294
Like that's how, like long in
the tooth the situation is.

1054
00:52:57,475 --> 00:53:01,254
If China started doing this, like I
think it would be really difficult

1055
00:53:01,254 --> 00:53:03,205
for people not to think about
being at the cutting edge there.

1056
00:53:03,205 --> 00:53:06,895
Europe is the odds on favorite, or to your
point, Canada, like an odds on favorite

1057
00:53:06,895 --> 00:53:09,509
to like really profit from this, but like,
no, listen, it's not what US is doing.

1058
00:53:09,509 --> 00:53:09,750
Listen,

1059
00:53:09,895 --> 00:53:11,515
Marko Papic: just to be clear,
just to be clear, there is a lot

1060
00:53:11,515 --> 00:53:17,845
of fraud, uh, and there is a lot
of like, uh, non-productive ways.

1061
00:53:18,720 --> 00:53:20,580
Of attracting international
students as well.

1062
00:53:21,120 --> 00:53:23,700
So Canada had this problem
with language programs.

1063
00:53:23,790 --> 00:53:28,230
Um, so basically you can just show up in
Canada, get a student visa and like learn

1064
00:53:28,260 --> 00:53:32,940
English in Vancouver, but you're just
really partying and eventually you stay or

1065
00:53:32,940 --> 00:53:37,800
like, you know, you're a quote unquote the
drain on like social resources and so on.

1066
00:53:38,160 --> 00:53:39,450
I get that, I get that.

1067
00:53:39,450 --> 00:53:45,960
But there's ways to eliminate that
vacuous, non-productive source and pool

1068
00:53:45,960 --> 00:53:49,500
of international students and direct
them towards the more productive.

1069
00:53:49,500 --> 00:53:50,400
And Canada's done that.

1070
00:53:50,520 --> 00:53:52,920
So Canada is actually
cutting international student

1071
00:53:53,250 --> 00:53:55,770
applications, uh, 10% this year.

1072
00:53:56,190 --> 00:54:00,720
Uh, but the effort is to keep the
university applications relatively

1073
00:54:00,720 --> 00:54:05,940
stable, uh, and eliminate those, you
know, semi fraudulent language programs.

1074
00:54:06,000 --> 00:54:10,440
Um, I think the US uh, I
think maybe we've overreacted.

1075
00:54:10,440 --> 00:54:14,940
I. To this, maybe they are just like
introducing social media vetting.

1076
00:54:14,940 --> 00:54:18,510
I don't think it's sustainable to
not attract international students.

1077
00:54:18,900 --> 00:54:21,150
Uh, I think we need to separate
what's happening to Harvard

1078
00:54:21,150 --> 00:54:22,410
from the State Department issue.

1079
00:54:22,740 --> 00:54:24,720
And again, we'll, we'll see in 12 months.

1080
00:54:24,720 --> 00:54:25,980
Jacob, who's right, who's wrong?

1081
00:54:25,980 --> 00:54:29,040
You know, like, so I'm open, I'm
open to being obviously wrong

1082
00:54:29,040 --> 00:54:30,270
in this being like terrible.

1083
00:54:30,660 --> 00:54:33,750
Um, but I'm, I'm going even beyond that.

1084
00:54:33,840 --> 00:54:37,890
You know, what I'm saying is that
our entire immigration system can

1085
00:54:37,890 --> 00:54:40,800
be changed and not just of the
United States of America, but also

1086
00:54:40,800 --> 00:54:43,440
of Europe and also of, uh, Canada.

1087
00:54:44,160 --> 00:54:49,320
And what I mean is that it can start
to aggressively recruit educated and

1088
00:54:49,320 --> 00:54:53,610
well-trained professionals, you know,
and, and not, and I think the, it,

1089
00:54:53,610 --> 00:54:55,950
it starts with a very simple point.

1090
00:54:55,950 --> 00:55:01,380
You cannot treat anyone, everyone
who's Russian, as if they themselves

1091
00:55:01,380 --> 00:55:04,230
approved and authorized and
planned the invasion of Ukraine.

1092
00:55:05,130 --> 00:55:06,570
And effectively that's what we're doing.

1093
00:55:07,170 --> 00:55:10,050
And it's benefiting countries
like Georgia and Serbia.

1094
00:55:10,665 --> 00:55:14,415
You know, whereas it could be benefiting
countries like Germany, which do

1095
00:55:14,415 --> 00:55:16,845
need IT professionals desperately.

1096
00:55:17,265 --> 00:55:22,545
Um, and it's just a silly fact
that this is, this is one of those

1097
00:55:22,545 --> 00:55:27,045
things where geopolitics has not
been able to break through, uh,

1098
00:55:27,045 --> 00:55:29,085
very parochial domestic politics.

1099
00:55:30,195 --> 00:55:30,525
Jacob Shapiro: Yeah.

1100
00:55:31,545 --> 00:55:35,655
Um, you know, I think that maybe,
uh, government should take a, they

1101
00:55:35,655 --> 00:55:38,445
should take a look at what the NBA
does, like aggressively recruiting

1102
00:55:38,445 --> 00:55:39,945
talent throughout the entire world.

1103
00:55:39,945 --> 00:55:43,635
Get the best players into the
National Basketball Association.

1104
00:55:43,635 --> 00:55:46,065
And so the NBA becomes the best
because you find Giannis and

1105
00:55:46,065 --> 00:55:47,835
you find Victor, Victor, Ana.

1106
00:55:47,865 --> 00:55:51,165
Like, why shouldn't you just do that
with immigration in general, you know?

1107
00:55:51,915 --> 00:55:54,015
Um, I feel like, was it not Germany?

1108
00:55:54,015 --> 00:55:56,295
There was a, I thought it was the eu.

1109
00:55:57,525 --> 00:56:00,285
Yeah, I mean, the EU actually a
couple weeks ago, like launched a

1110
00:56:00,285 --> 00:56:04,425
new initiative to try and attract
scientists and researchers.

1111
00:56:05,205 --> 00:56:08,205
To the block and I feel, I can't
find it off the tip of, I'll have

1112
00:56:08,205 --> 00:56:10,845
to see if I'm just imagining it, but
I believe, I thought it was Germany

1113
00:56:10,845 --> 00:56:14,205
or some European country was like
basically offering Russian, like

1114
00:56:14,205 --> 00:56:17,590
academics, like access to the country
if they needed it, like after the fact.

1115
00:56:17,590 --> 00:56:17,910
There you go.

1116
00:56:17,910 --> 00:56:19,545
But I can't, I can't find it.

1117
00:56:19,694 --> 00:56:20,384
Um, exactly.

1118
00:56:20,805 --> 00:56:23,955
Um, okay, we did an hour
on the Art of Manliness.

1119
00:56:23,955 --> 00:56:24,555
That's great.

1120
00:56:24,825 --> 00:56:25,545
Dealer's choice.

1121
00:56:25,545 --> 00:56:28,545
Marco, do you wanna talk about Bitcoin
and crypto or do you wanna talk

1122
00:56:28,545 --> 00:56:30,255
about the big beautiful Bill first?

1123
00:56:30,795 --> 00:56:34,665
Marko Papic: I think big, beautiful
Bill, uh, Elon Musk was, uh.

1124
00:56:35,085 --> 00:56:38,085
Basically interviewed,
um, uh, criticizing it.

1125
00:56:38,085 --> 00:56:41,055
He was of course the head of
Doge, which was supposed to

1126
00:56:41,055 --> 00:56:42,315
improve government efficiency.

1127
00:56:42,375 --> 00:56:47,895
And, um, he was surprised that the bill
increases the deficit rather than def d

1128
00:56:47,985 --> 00:56:52,635
decreases it, which, you know, I don't
know what planet he was on, uh, non Mars.

1129
00:56:52,665 --> 00:56:56,565
'cause you know, his Starship
blew up so we know it wasn't Mars.

1130
00:56:56,805 --> 00:56:59,355
Jacob Shapiro: He, he was wearing
an Occupy Mars shirt, to which I

1131
00:56:59,355 --> 00:57:01,005
say, Elon, what are you waiting for?

1132
00:57:01,095 --> 00:57:01,965
Please go.

1133
00:57:02,205 --> 00:57:02,505
Sorry,

1134
00:57:03,105 --> 00:57:06,225
Marko Papic: you, it was just, uh, it
was just such a hilarious, like, oh

1135
00:57:06,225 --> 00:57:08,145
my God, this increases the deficit.

1136
00:57:08,145 --> 00:57:08,895
Of course it does.

1137
00:57:09,465 --> 00:57:15,105
Um, and it always was going to, um,
I actually, uh, am gonna take a hot

1138
00:57:15,105 --> 00:57:17,235
take here, which is not a popular one.

1139
00:57:17,655 --> 00:57:23,355
Uh, whether you're a conservative or
a liberal, um, I don't think it really

1140
00:57:23,355 --> 00:57:25,155
increases the deficit by that much.

1141
00:57:25,155 --> 00:57:30,075
I. You know, uh, this is not to say
that the US deficit is not very large.

1142
00:57:30,135 --> 00:57:34,065
It's between seven and 8% and
it's going to be for the next

1143
00:57:34,065 --> 00:57:35,625
10 years, which is insane.

1144
00:57:36,045 --> 00:57:39,945
And it's insane, uh, not because
having an 8% deficit is a bad thing.

1145
00:57:40,545 --> 00:57:45,825
Um, but because there are moments when
you need to expand your deficits to offset

1146
00:57:45,825 --> 00:57:51,135
the loss of private sector, um, you know,
economic activity such as in a recession.

1147
00:57:51,135 --> 00:57:54,015
So when a recession happens,
you should be in a deficit.

1148
00:57:54,015 --> 00:57:54,975
There's nothing bad with that.

1149
00:57:55,305 --> 00:57:59,685
You have to go into deficits to offset
and get the economy back on track.

1150
00:58:00,135 --> 00:58:05,595
And when you are at 8% deficit
with no recession, that's

1151
00:58:05,595 --> 00:58:06,795
a really bad place to be.

1152
00:58:07,365 --> 00:58:12,195
It means that you don't have any room
to stimulate if a recession happens.

1153
00:58:12,615 --> 00:58:14,475
And I wanna spend a
little bit of time, um.

1154
00:58:15,285 --> 00:58:15,645
Here.

1155
00:58:15,645 --> 00:58:18,375
A a lot of, a lot of my clients,
very sophisticated investors, but

1156
00:58:18,375 --> 00:58:22,545
also just like regular people, you
know, or twitterati if you will.

1157
00:58:23,025 --> 00:58:26,865
Uh, a lot of people expect there
to be some sort of a calamity.

1158
00:58:27,435 --> 00:58:29,985
You know, there's gonna be
a giant bond market riot

1159
00:58:30,435 --> 00:58:31,995
because the deficits are large.

1160
00:58:32,565 --> 00:58:35,805
Um, America is basically gonna default.

1161
00:58:35,925 --> 00:58:37,905
Uh, it doesn't have to actually happen.

1162
00:58:38,955 --> 00:58:40,245
It can just be a slow burn.

1163
00:58:40,605 --> 00:58:42,075
You know, you don't have
to have a heart attack.

1164
00:58:42,075 --> 00:58:48,015
You can just basically slowly
die over a period of 10 years.

1165
00:58:48,225 --> 00:58:48,705
Why?

1166
00:58:49,215 --> 00:58:53,475
Because interest rates are going to
remain very elevated for the private

1167
00:58:53,475 --> 00:58:55,755
sector, which includes both corporates.

1168
00:58:56,415 --> 00:59:00,495
It also means you trying to buy a
home with a mortgage, you're gonna

1169
00:59:00,495 --> 00:59:02,595
have to lock in at a much higher rate.

1170
00:59:02,595 --> 00:59:06,525
And the reason for this is very
simple, when the government has a

1171
00:59:06,525 --> 00:59:11,415
lot of debt and it has to constantly
refinance that debt in the markets.

1172
00:59:12,120 --> 00:59:14,760
Imagine it's like a government
having a credit card.

1173
00:59:15,540 --> 00:59:20,370
Um, and that credit card is constantly
carrying like a $50,000, you know,

1174
00:59:20,370 --> 00:59:22,050
bill over and over every month.

1175
00:59:22,440 --> 00:59:25,800
The interest rate on that is going
to be, uh, very high, and there's

1176
00:59:25,800 --> 00:59:31,320
not gonna be a lot of demand in the
economy for non-government debt.

1177
00:59:32,310 --> 00:59:36,900
So whenever interest rate is applied
to government debt, the private sector

1178
00:59:36,900 --> 00:59:38,550
always has to pay a higher interest rate.

1179
00:59:39,030 --> 00:59:41,280
And the difference between the
government and the private sector is

1180
00:59:41,280 --> 00:59:45,120
the government can print money and
can raise taxes whenever it wants.

1181
00:59:45,360 --> 00:59:48,810
Like the government can get revenue
whenever it wants by just taxing you more.

1182
00:59:49,350 --> 00:59:51,990
So it will always have a
lower rate of interest.

1183
00:59:52,020 --> 00:59:55,680
It will always cost it less
than just private individuals.

1184
00:59:56,310 --> 00:59:59,730
And because of this, the
government will get refinanced

1185
00:59:59,730 --> 01:00:02,640
at 4.5% on its 10 year debt.

1186
01:00:02,940 --> 01:00:06,570
But that means that your 30 year
mortgage is gonna have to be six or 7%.

1187
01:00:07,500 --> 01:00:08,460
It's not gonna come down.

1188
01:00:09,765 --> 01:00:13,004
I think that this is something
that will over the next 12 months

1189
01:00:13,004 --> 01:00:15,315
become the political issue in
the United States of America.

1190
01:00:15,944 --> 01:00:21,045
People will begin to associate, it,
will start to understand the math

1191
01:00:21,105 --> 01:00:24,345
because enough people, especially
millennials who are not pretty old,

1192
01:00:24,524 --> 01:00:25,754
like, you know, I'm a millennial.

1193
01:00:25,754 --> 01:00:26,865
I'm 43 years old.

1194
01:00:28,009 --> 01:00:30,345
Millennials are going to start
being like, wait a minute.

1195
01:00:30,345 --> 01:00:34,424
Why don't I own a home at 45, 43, 40, 39?

1196
01:00:34,904 --> 01:00:37,575
The interest rates are too high, but
I saved all this money and all this

1197
01:00:37,575 --> 01:00:42,615
crypto, you know, I made all this money
with Bitcoin, like I can afford a down

1198
01:00:42,615 --> 01:00:48,254
payment, but I just don't wanna lock
myself in with a, uh, interest rate of 7%.

1199
01:00:49,335 --> 01:00:54,975
And it's that connection between
the rate of interest, the cost of

1200
01:00:54,975 --> 01:00:58,335
financing, and the government debt.

1201
01:00:58,424 --> 01:01:01,904
So cost of financing for individuals
and corporates and government debt.

1202
01:01:01,935 --> 01:01:04,305
I think that connection is
going to be, start being made.

1203
01:01:04,995 --> 01:01:05,415
Um mm-hmm.

1204
01:01:05,422 --> 01:01:05,779
And I think that.

1205
01:01:06,705 --> 01:01:10,485
What I would say my hot stake here
is that yes, this big beautiful

1206
01:01:10,485 --> 01:01:12,375
bill does add to the budget deficit.

1207
01:01:12,705 --> 01:01:16,335
Although if you actually take
tariff revenues, assuming that

1208
01:01:16,335 --> 01:01:21,225
the 10% tariff remains, it's
actually pretty flat to be honest.

1209
01:01:21,765 --> 01:01:25,635
So if any, you know, if I hear a
bunch of liberals coming out, like,

1210
01:01:26,085 --> 01:01:29,985
you know, a couple of months from now
seeing that President Trump's big,

1211
01:01:29,985 --> 01:01:35,175
beautiful bill added to the deficit,
you know what, like, do some math.

1212
01:01:35,265 --> 01:01:36,585
Look at what Joe Biden did.

1213
01:01:37,425 --> 01:01:41,205
Look at what Trump and Nancy Pelosi
did together as a, as a, as a loving

1214
01:01:41,205 --> 01:01:43,605
couple running the country in 2020.

1215
01:01:43,995 --> 01:01:50,325
Like this is not this, this bill is
the least profligate bill of anything

1216
01:01:50,325 --> 01:01:53,715
that was passed by the United States of
America over the last like seven years.

1217
01:01:53,715 --> 01:01:55,275
So like, relax.

1218
01:01:55,920 --> 01:01:58,170
So, no, this is not the issue.

1219
01:01:58,320 --> 01:01:59,011
The issue is this.

1220
01:01:59,025 --> 01:01:59,325
I'm fine

1221
01:01:59,325 --> 01:01:59,490
Jacob Shapiro: with that.

1222
01:01:59,700 --> 01:02:02,250
Just, just to be clear, that's not
saying that much, that this is the least

1223
01:02:02,250 --> 01:02:03,390
profitable of the last seven years.

1224
01:02:04,290 --> 01:02:04,800
Marko Papic: I know.

1225
01:02:04,860 --> 01:02:06,150
No, no, no, but exactly.

1226
01:02:06,150 --> 01:02:11,310
But this is a truly a bipartisan
effort to fuck up American finances.

1227
01:02:12,150 --> 01:02:12,930
That's the point.

1228
01:02:12,930 --> 01:02:16,560
It's been a bipartisan, like, if you wanna
find some bipartisanship, there you go.

1229
01:02:16,560 --> 01:02:17,490
It's the budget deficit.

1230
01:02:17,490 --> 01:02:18,150
It's beautiful.

1231
01:02:18,240 --> 01:02:21,480
Like it's, it's a source of
love between the two parties.

1232
01:02:21,870 --> 01:02:25,800
But what I'm getting at is
that my hot take, Jacob?

1233
01:02:25,830 --> 01:02:26,610
Is that this is it.

1234
01:02:26,760 --> 01:02:31,200
This is the last one because from here
on out, the politics are gonna pivot.

1235
01:02:32,160 --> 01:02:35,880
Uh, and actually the politics already
pivoted in January, which is why this

1236
01:02:35,880 --> 01:02:40,590
bill is adding $2 trillion to the
deficit and perhaps not even if we

1237
01:02:40,590 --> 01:02:40,890
Jacob Shapiro: 2 trillion.

1238
01:02:40,890 --> 01:02:42,510
I thought, where, where
are you getting 2 trillion?

1239
01:02:42,510 --> 01:02:45,240
I've seen 3.8 is the number
that I've seen people settle on.

1240
01:02:45,300 --> 01:02:45,930
Where's your math?

1241
01:02:46,290 --> 01:02:49,620
Marko Papic: Uh, 2.3 trillion from CBO.

1242
01:02:50,460 --> 01:02:51,795
From CBO, I thought it was 3.8.

1243
01:02:53,384 --> 01:02:56,535
Well between two, 2.5 and 3.5.

1244
01:02:56,805 --> 01:02:57,254
That's fine.

1245
01:02:57,944 --> 01:03:00,765
The point is, the point is it's
over 10 years, just to be clear.

1246
01:03:01,995 --> 01:03:05,564
Um, so nowhere close to the kind of
spending that we did during COVID.

1247
01:03:06,375 --> 01:03:08,654
Uh, and the second issue is that
that doesn't count the tariff

1248
01:03:08,654 --> 01:03:12,615
revenue, uh, which is somewhere
between one and a half in 2 trillion,

1249
01:03:13,125 --> 01:03:17,205
uh, assuming eight 10% across the
board's tariff, not assuming all the

1250
01:03:17,205 --> 01:03:19,125
nonsense that was done on April 2nd.

1251
01:03:19,575 --> 01:03:24,720
So this bill is either flat and doesn't
add to the deficit, or it adds 1

1252
01:03:24,720 --> 01:03:29,265
trillion over 10 years, which is a joke
given the current size or the deficit.

1253
01:03:29,265 --> 01:03:33,524
The point, the, the whole point of
this, the whole point is that that's the

1254
01:03:33,524 --> 01:03:37,665
peak and I think that politics is going
to start moving the other direction.

1255
01:03:38,084 --> 01:03:39,375
Uh, again, it already did.

1256
01:03:40,185 --> 01:03:43,185
I think that this bill was
supposed to be five to 7 trillion,

1257
01:03:43,785 --> 01:03:45,615
but they actually found cuts.

1258
01:03:45,615 --> 01:03:51,075
I. To add to it, which was not something
that was, uh, expected in 2024.

1259
01:03:51,705 --> 01:03:52,605
Uh, in 2024.

1260
01:03:52,605 --> 01:03:55,395
One of the reasons that the dollar
rallied, and one of the reasons that,

1261
01:03:55,605 --> 01:03:58,845
you know, everybody thought that Trump
would bring growth was that he would

1262
01:03:58,845 --> 01:04:03,165
simply repeat what he did in 2017, but the
macro conditions are not there for that.

1263
01:04:03,405 --> 01:04:07,305
And so the bond market rioted in
November and December of last year and

1264
01:04:07,305 --> 01:04:11,175
forced the House of Representatives
to basically add cuts to this bill.

1265
01:04:14,595 --> 01:04:16,130
And by the way, just to, yeah, there's,

1266
01:04:16,725 --> 01:04:16,935
Jacob Shapiro: yeah.

1267
01:04:17,595 --> 01:04:19,815
Marko Papic: Just one last point
just to show the difference

1268
01:04:19,875 --> 01:04:21,465
in the political context.

1269
01:04:21,825 --> 01:04:26,625
In 2017, when the Republicans passed
the original tax cuts that were now

1270
01:04:26,625 --> 01:04:30,345
extending, it was passed without any cuts.

1271
01:04:31,005 --> 01:04:34,065
It was completely and
utterly just unfunded.

1272
01:04:34,575 --> 01:04:39,015
This one, they actually found a lot of
cuts, uh, and they actually introduced it.

1273
01:04:39,465 --> 01:04:43,785
And so that's why the bill is not five
to 7 trillion over the next 10 years.

1274
01:04:44,025 --> 01:04:44,984
It's two to 3 trillion.

1275
01:04:46,545 --> 01:04:49,065
Jacob Shapiro: Yeah, it's funny, as you
were talking, I was trying to find the,

1276
01:04:49,065 --> 01:04:51,525
the CBO and I've got two different CBOs.

1277
01:04:51,675 --> 01:04:54,375
One estimate is 2.3 trillion,
one is 3.8 trillion.

1278
01:04:54,375 --> 01:04:57,765
So I guess it's somewhere between 2.3
and 3.8 trillion is the estimate of

1279
01:04:57,765 --> 01:04:59,685
what it's gonna add, uh, to the deficit.

1280
01:04:59,685 --> 01:05:01,365
And we'll see what
happens with the Senate.

1281
01:05:01,725 --> 01:05:04,845
I mean, there, there, it's not just like,
we can talk about the spending issue too.

1282
01:05:04,845 --> 01:05:08,685
I mean, there's some hot button stuff in
here, like the changes to Medicaid are

1283
01:05:08,685 --> 01:05:15,194
gonna theoretically save $625 billion,
but are estimated to push almost 8 million

1284
01:05:15,195 --> 01:05:17,205
Americans off of healthcare coverage.

1285
01:05:17,655 --> 01:05:20,445
Um, and if you start messing with
people's healthcare, I feel like the

1286
01:05:20,445 --> 01:05:21,945
politics is gonna change around that.

1287
01:05:22,590 --> 01:05:26,040
There's also, like, I had never,
maybe I'm just a, a new bio with this.

1288
01:05:26,040 --> 01:05:27,930
I had never heard of salt taxes.

1289
01:05:27,960 --> 01:05:31,050
And now the idea that there's like this
huge increased cap on state and local,

1290
01:05:31,290 --> 01:05:35,100
local tax deductions, like funny there
and all, all the green energy stuff.

1291
01:05:35,100 --> 01:05:37,530
I mean, I don't know that,
that again seems just like

1292
01:05:37,530 --> 01:05:38,760
shooting ourselves in the foot.

1293
01:05:38,760 --> 01:05:41,280
Also, glad I went ahead and put
solar on my house last year rather

1294
01:05:41,280 --> 01:05:42,810
than waiting, uh, until this year.

1295
01:05:43,350 --> 01:05:43,920
Um, but I don't know.

1296
01:05:43,920 --> 01:05:47,910
I mean, if I was gonna take the opposite
side, um, well, I, I guess I can't take

1297
01:05:47,910 --> 01:05:50,640
the opposite side because you're saying
that you think this is gonna get passed

1298
01:05:50,640 --> 01:05:51,780
and that just makes the problem worse.

1299
01:05:51,780 --> 01:05:54,720
You just don't think that there's
gonna be any more gravy after this one.

1300
01:05:54,720 --> 01:05:55,680
That this is the last one.

1301
01:05:55,680 --> 01:05:57,420
Is that the right characterization
of what you're saying?

1302
01:05:57,810 --> 01:05:58,110
Marko Papic: Yeah.

1303
01:05:58,110 --> 01:06:01,920
Uh, basically, uh, this is it, you
know, a budget deficit around seven

1304
01:06:01,920 --> 01:06:08,640
to 8%, um, over the course of the
next, um, you know, 10 years is

1305
01:06:08,640 --> 01:06:12,270
unsustainable because we will have a
recession at some point, you assume.

1306
01:06:12,990 --> 01:06:15,960
Um, and that will require the
deficit to go even higher.

1307
01:06:16,830 --> 01:06:21,689
Um, and also the bond market is basically
saying, look, we're not gonna riot.

1308
01:06:22,109 --> 01:06:25,350
There's not going to be some sort
of a calamity where, you know, bond

1309
01:06:25,350 --> 01:06:28,379
yields go through the roof, but
we'll just stay at a very high level.

1310
01:06:29,549 --> 01:06:31,919
So you're not gonna have a heart
attack, but you're extremely

1311
01:06:31,919 --> 01:06:33,509
unfit and can't climb stairs.

1312
01:06:34,890 --> 01:06:37,200
Jacob Shapiro: And how do you think
that's gonna change us politics?

1313
01:06:37,200 --> 01:06:40,080
Like, well, because the, the hard
thing for me to imagine is that you're

1314
01:06:40,080 --> 01:06:46,890
gonna get a real impetus towards
fiscal like conservatism because like,

1315
01:06:46,890 --> 01:06:48,270
people are just used to the goodies.

1316
01:06:48,899 --> 01:06:49,770
Marko Papic: Well, let's talk about that.

1317
01:06:49,890 --> 01:06:54,899
So the, the way it's gonna happen is that,
um, we're gonna be in a permanent state

1318
01:06:54,899 --> 01:06:59,220
of high interest rates, and eventually
people are gonna ask why, why are we

1319
01:06:59,220 --> 01:07:02,459
in a permanent state of high interest
rates, which constrain economic growth,

1320
01:07:02,759 --> 01:07:05,100
consumption of durable goods of homes?

1321
01:07:05,700 --> 01:07:07,979
And the answer is going to be,
well, because the government is

1322
01:07:07,979 --> 01:07:10,589
crowding out private sector spending.

1323
01:07:12,000 --> 01:07:13,140
And private sector investing.

1324
01:07:13,529 --> 01:07:17,069
And this is, by the way, this is something
we all learned at 19 years old, crowded

1325
01:07:17,069 --> 01:07:20,880
into an amphitheater at a university
when we took macroeconomics 1 0 1.

1326
01:07:21,569 --> 01:07:23,040
This is that crowding out effect.

1327
01:07:23,040 --> 01:07:25,980
This is why you cannot grow
the economy with deficits.

1328
01:07:26,609 --> 01:07:31,620
And so the irony, Jacob, is that fiscal
conservatism will be stimulative.

1329
01:07:32,490 --> 01:07:35,490
This is where the fiscal
conservatives and the right wing

1330
01:07:35,490 --> 01:07:37,380
policies and economics are correct.

1331
01:07:38,190 --> 01:07:42,390
When your deficits are persistently high,
reducing them does actually lead to more

1332
01:07:42,390 --> 01:07:44,580
growth and even more equitable growth.

1333
01:07:44,819 --> 01:07:48,540
Like access, you know, access to credit
is very important if you're poor.

1334
01:07:48,540 --> 01:07:48,660
Mm-hmm.

1335
01:07:49,680 --> 01:07:54,029
You know, uh, you're not using credit
to buy jet skis and boats, although,

1336
01:07:54,060 --> 01:07:55,290
you know, obviously some people are.

1337
01:07:55,290 --> 01:07:59,730
But, um, access to credit is how you
get a truck so you can get, have a job.

1338
01:07:59,730 --> 01:08:03,150
So you can be a plumber, uh, or
access to credit is how you get

1339
01:08:03,150 --> 01:08:04,620
a home in a nice neighborhood.

1340
01:08:04,680 --> 01:08:06,450
Or it's how you send your kids to college.

1341
01:08:06,720 --> 01:08:08,490
So access to credit is very important.

1342
01:08:08,490 --> 01:08:09,990
It's not pernicious, it's not bad.

1343
01:08:10,694 --> 01:08:15,615
But when the government has basically
taken all the supply of, you know,

1344
01:08:15,615 --> 01:08:20,415
bond buying, that there is, there is
no more supply for the private sector.

1345
01:08:20,835 --> 01:08:25,005
And so that's where cutting the
deficit will become stimulative.

1346
01:08:25,514 --> 01:08:28,514
Uh, and I think that over the
next, um, you know, this, this bill

1347
01:08:28,514 --> 01:08:30,764
basically was al already surprised.

1348
01:08:31,875 --> 01:08:34,365
It, already surprised
how conservative it was.

1349
01:08:34,545 --> 01:08:38,415
And again, I know the mainstream media is
not labeling it as such because liberal

1350
01:08:38,415 --> 01:08:42,434
media wants to paint, paint Trump as
being profligate and irresponsible.

1351
01:08:42,675 --> 01:08:44,144
And I mean, on some level he is.

1352
01:08:44,805 --> 01:08:49,125
But I don't think that the media
is properly telling investors,

1353
01:08:49,125 --> 01:08:54,465
and also just regular listeners,
how much lower this deficit is.

1354
01:08:55,365 --> 01:08:58,215
Like how much less of a deficit
this bill is bringing to the

1355
01:08:58,215 --> 01:08:59,984
table than it could have.

1356
01:09:00,944 --> 01:09:04,904
If you actually listened to
Trump's um, election platform,

1357
01:09:05,205 --> 01:09:07,335
it was 10 to $15 trillion.

1358
01:09:08,250 --> 01:09:11,130
Extending the 2017 tax cuts alone.

1359
01:09:11,520 --> 01:09:13,200
Jacob is 5 trillion.

1360
01:09:13,350 --> 01:09:15,090
Just that alone is 5 trillion.

1361
01:09:15,090 --> 01:09:16,770
Just keeping our taxes the same.

1362
01:09:16,770 --> 01:09:21,300
You and I since we're US citizens
and we live in America just keeping

1363
01:09:21,300 --> 01:09:25,740
our taxes the same cost 5 trillion.

1364
01:09:25,740 --> 01:09:28,530
And yet this bill is somehow
between two to 3 trillion

1365
01:09:29,220 --> 01:09:31,230
additive to the deficit only.

1366
01:09:32,040 --> 01:09:34,230
So I think that the zeitgeist
has already changed.

1367
01:09:34,320 --> 01:09:35,400
I mean, clearly it has.

1368
01:09:36,060 --> 01:09:38,190
Uh, in 2017 the tax cuts were unfunded.

1369
01:09:38,190 --> 01:09:39,420
Now they're partially funded.

1370
01:09:39,960 --> 01:09:42,390
Uh, going forward, I think this
pendulum is gonna swing even

1371
01:09:42,390 --> 01:09:44,220
further towards fiscal conservatism.

1372
01:09:44,220 --> 01:09:47,700
And the reason for that is not
because government spending is bad.

1373
01:09:47,760 --> 01:09:51,240
I hate that it's not, government
spending is sometimes extremely good,

1374
01:09:51,960 --> 01:09:55,260
but in this particular case, we're
just running such a high deficit

1375
01:09:55,620 --> 01:09:58,440
that it's basically preventing you.

1376
01:09:58,680 --> 01:10:03,000
Yes, you listening to this, buying a
home with a reasonable mortgage rate, I.

1377
01:10:06,075 --> 01:10:10,755
Jacob Shapiro: Yeah, I'm, I'm not
a, well, I, I'm, I'm struggling.

1378
01:10:10,755 --> 01:10:11,355
I'm struggling.

1379
01:10:11,390 --> 01:10:13,245
I, I get the zag that
you're trying to make.

1380
01:10:13,695 --> 01:10:16,695
Um, and, and yes, like it's,
it's the art of the deal.

1381
01:10:16,695 --> 01:10:19,785
He started at 10 to 15 trillion and
now it's down to two to 3 trillion, but

1382
01:10:19,785 --> 01:10:23,415
it's two, it's still two to 3 trillion,
um, that, that's being added on.

1383
01:10:23,415 --> 01:10:26,595
So it, it's hard for, it's hard, and
maybe I'm guilty of anchoring to the

1384
01:10:26,595 --> 01:10:30,195
10 to 15, uh, trillion or anchoring to
the liberal media, but to me it just

1385
01:10:30,195 --> 01:10:34,665
seems like, um, yet another, I mean,
and, and I also, I'm so uncomfortable.

1386
01:10:34,665 --> 01:10:36,855
I'm like literally squirming in
my chair, being in a position

1387
01:10:36,855 --> 01:10:38,235
to agree with Elon Musk.

1388
01:10:38,295 --> 01:10:41,685
Uh, but here I am like squirming
in my chair, being like, okay.

1389
01:10:41,685 --> 01:10:43,965
And I felt this way about the
first Trump administration too.

1390
01:10:43,965 --> 01:10:47,955
Like the one thing I really, really liked
from the first Trump administration.

1391
01:10:48,630 --> 01:10:50,790
Um, platform was infrastructure spending.

1392
01:10:51,090 --> 01:10:54,030
And I feel like we got everything
but the infrastructure spending.

1393
01:10:54,030 --> 01:10:56,880
And the one thing I actually really
liked about the Trump platform was,

1394
01:10:56,880 --> 01:11:00,960
oh, maybe like a return to some like,
notion of fiscal like responsibility.

1395
01:11:01,320 --> 01:11:04,620
And there's not, there's there, to me,
there is no fiscal responsibility here.

1396
01:11:04,620 --> 01:11:06,480
It's just the gravy train
is gonna keep going.

1397
01:11:06,510 --> 01:11:09,330
And the idea and like the things
were, are gonna have to get really

1398
01:11:09,330 --> 01:11:14,250
bad for the normal American, um,
citizen in order for the government

1399
01:11:14,250 --> 01:11:16,110
to say, okay, we do have to cut back.

1400
01:11:16,110 --> 01:11:20,610
And then it's also just, um, it's, it's
all of the policies smooshed together.

1401
01:11:20,610 --> 01:11:24,120
So if, if you take what you're talking
about with the one beautiful bill in a

1402
01:11:24,120 --> 01:11:27,930
vacuum, like, okay, I can sort of get
all the way there, but then you start,

1403
01:11:27,960 --> 01:11:32,250
you know, remembering that, well, part of
what they're accounting for is that tariff

1404
01:11:32,250 --> 01:11:34,230
revenue is gonna pay for some of this.

1405
01:11:34,679 --> 01:11:38,040
And I mean, I think the tariff
policy is nonsensical and that

1406
01:11:38,040 --> 01:11:40,919
most of these tariffs won't be
here probably in six to 12 months.

1407
01:11:40,919 --> 01:11:43,709
And if they are, it'll be like
negative on the US government.

1408
01:11:43,875 --> 01:11:46,440
You, you pair all this stuff
with, okay, but you're also

1409
01:11:46,440 --> 01:11:48,240
like killing the universities.

1410
01:11:48,240 --> 01:11:51,570
You are making it impossible for
international students to come here.

1411
01:11:51,959 --> 01:11:55,500
Uh, immigration migration is also sort
of stalled, so you're not getting that.

1412
01:11:55,500 --> 01:11:58,230
So maybe we're gonna get labor shortages
and higher labor costs and then

1413
01:11:58,230 --> 01:11:59,459
we're gonna get labor cost inflation.

1414
01:11:59,669 --> 01:12:01,139
What happens if we actually got.

1415
01:12:01,755 --> 01:12:05,745
Something that happened in the
Middle East or, um, that caused,

1416
01:12:05,745 --> 01:12:07,485
you know, energy prices to go up.

1417
01:12:07,665 --> 01:12:11,835
Or like what if energy prices stay
low for so long that American shale

1418
01:12:11,835 --> 01:12:14,505
producers are out of the game and then
you get a sudden spike and what are the

1419
01:12:14,505 --> 01:12:16,035
inflation numbers gonna look like there?

1420
01:12:16,155 --> 01:12:19,335
Food prices here, they're not
nearly where they were like,

1421
01:12:19,365 --> 01:12:21,405
you know, three, four years ago,
but they're starting to tick up.

1422
01:12:21,405 --> 01:12:24,195
They're appreciably above where
they were last year and like

1423
01:12:24,195 --> 01:12:25,304
trending in the wrong direction.

1424
01:12:25,304 --> 01:12:28,365
So you start like putting all of these
things together and then you think about

1425
01:12:28,365 --> 01:12:32,415
a United States that, to your point,
has no fiscal space anymore, has done

1426
01:12:32,415 --> 01:12:34,094
the max of what it can possibly do.

1427
01:12:34,094 --> 01:12:35,474
And what did it get with that?

1428
01:12:35,804 --> 01:12:41,115
It didn't get beautiful infrastructure
or manufacturing capacity or innovation.

1429
01:12:41,144 --> 01:12:42,974
It got nothing out of it.

1430
01:12:43,065 --> 01:12:43,665
Just like,

1431
01:12:44,144 --> 01:12:44,384
Marko Papic: yeah.

1432
01:12:44,415 --> 01:12:44,715
Yeah.

1433
01:12:44,775 --> 01:12:47,894
Like the 2017 tax cuts
basically just stay.

1434
01:12:48,375 --> 01:12:50,235
Um, so a couple of
things that I would say.

1435
01:12:50,235 --> 01:12:52,215
First of all, tariffs are like taxes.

1436
01:12:52,245 --> 01:12:54,014
They are taxes, they're, yeah.

1437
01:12:54,019 --> 01:12:54,130
Mm-hmm.

1438
01:12:54,250 --> 01:12:55,250
There's a Laffer curve.

1439
01:12:56,309 --> 01:13:00,105
Basically, if I were to tax you at a
hundred percent Jacob, you would quit.

1440
01:13:01,215 --> 01:13:04,875
Become like a glee, a professional
gleesing, you know what I mean?

1441
01:13:04,875 --> 01:13:06,915
Like I wish God, that'd be great.

1442
01:13:08,025 --> 01:13:14,085
And the reason is that you don't have an
incentive to work anymore at 90% taxes.

1443
01:13:14,775 --> 01:13:20,745
Similarly, if I were to tax and import
at 50%, you would just not import it.

1444
01:13:21,285 --> 01:13:23,805
You would just stop consuming
or you would buy an American

1445
01:13:23,805 --> 01:13:27,855
alternative, uh, at which point you
would get no revenue from tariffs.

1446
01:13:29,655 --> 01:13:33,075
And that's why there is this
like counterintuitive point.

1447
01:13:33,105 --> 01:13:37,545
If you wanna raise money from tariffs,
you can't manufacture at home.

1448
01:13:38,385 --> 01:13:39,135
Lemme say that again.

1449
01:13:39,615 --> 01:13:44,535
If you want to raise revenue from tariffs,
you have to continue to participate

1450
01:13:44,535 --> 01:13:50,745
in globalization and trade because
you're raising revenue from imports.

1451
01:13:51,135 --> 01:13:51,225
Mm-hmm.

1452
01:13:51,465 --> 01:13:53,144
And that's why you are right.

1453
01:13:53,325 --> 01:13:56,865
What's going to stay is probably just
that 10% across the board tariff.

1454
01:13:58,635 --> 01:14:02,985
But the 10% across the board tariff
is small enough that it will allow

1455
01:14:02,985 --> 01:14:06,135
tariff, like tariff revenue to be
collected and imports to continue.

1456
01:14:07,125 --> 01:14:11,385
The US is not going to shift that
manufacturing domestically, but

1457
01:14:11,385 --> 01:14:14,775
it will also be able to raise
about one and a half trillion.

1458
01:14:14,835 --> 01:14:17,025
Now, some of the estimates
are two and a half.

1459
01:14:17,535 --> 01:14:22,125
I go with the least, um, least optimistic
one from the Peterson Institute.

1460
01:14:22,125 --> 01:14:23,595
I think that's the most appropriate.

1461
01:14:23,595 --> 01:14:26,595
So one and a half trillion will be
raised, and that's what I'm seeing.

1462
01:14:26,595 --> 01:14:29,505
I think this bill is actually far more
conservative than people understand.

1463
01:14:30,615 --> 01:14:34,005
It raises deficit by two to 3
trillion, but I'm comfortable

1464
01:14:34,005 --> 01:14:37,305
assigning one and a half trillion
dollars worth of revenues from tariffs

1465
01:14:37,335 --> 01:14:38,715
because globalization continues.

1466
01:14:39,165 --> 01:14:41,835
Americans will continue to buy
bicycles from China no matter what

1467
01:14:41,835 --> 01:14:44,235
National Security Hawk psychopaths say.

1468
01:14:44,775 --> 01:14:49,605
And effectively that 10% will raise
one and a half trillion dollars.

1469
01:14:49,605 --> 01:14:50,835
So that's the first thing I would say.

1470
01:14:51,255 --> 01:14:53,265
That's where I think that maybe we're.

1471
01:14:54,405 --> 01:14:57,705
Well, it's funny because Trump himself
calls it a big, beautiful bill.

1472
01:14:57,945 --> 01:15:04,425
I would say, uh, it is a mod, moderately
sized, and yet somehow still functional.

1473
01:15:04,425 --> 01:15:08,355
Bill, you know, was that
a phallic joke perhaps?

1474
01:15:08,955 --> 01:15:13,635
Um, it's not that big, you
know, Donald, it's not that

1475
01:15:13,635 --> 01:15:16,575
big but me, you know, it works.

1476
01:15:16,815 --> 01:15:17,805
So that's the first thing I would say.

1477
01:15:17,805 --> 01:15:21,315
The second thing I would say is that
the P research actually has a great poll

1478
01:15:22,035 --> 01:15:26,145
that looks at the share of respondents
who say the deficit reduction should

1479
01:15:26,145 --> 01:15:28,635
be a top priority of the US government.

1480
01:15:28,635 --> 01:15:29,715
Mm-hmm.

1481
01:15:29,721 --> 01:15:34,635
And that p research poll is fascinating
because it actually hits some of

1482
01:15:34,635 --> 01:15:39,435
the very important macroeconomic
moments of US history Exactly.

1483
01:15:39,435 --> 01:15:39,945
Correctly.

1484
01:15:40,305 --> 01:15:46,695
For example, after 2008, it goes from
50% of Americans think the deficit

1485
01:15:46,695 --> 01:15:49,545
reduction is important to 70 by 2012.

1486
01:15:50,020 --> 01:15:51,765
And that's the birth of the tea party.

1487
01:15:52,680 --> 01:15:57,060
The Tea Party was born out of this
concern about the deficits, and the Tea

1488
01:15:57,060 --> 01:16:01,020
Party got a lot of flack for a lot of
things they did, but the Tea Party in

1489
01:16:01,020 --> 01:16:05,700
Barack Obama, both of them together,
and I think both of them deserve credit.

1490
01:16:06,540 --> 01:16:08,910
The conservatives obviously
always give it to the Tea Party.

1491
01:16:09,090 --> 01:16:12,840
The liberals give it to Obama, but
both of them sat down and actually

1492
01:16:12,840 --> 01:16:20,700
reduced the US deficit from 10% to 3%,
two and a half, like just under three.

1493
01:16:22,260 --> 01:16:30,150
So the US deficit shrunk from 10% in
2000 and uh, 10 to basically, uh, by

1494
01:16:30,150 --> 01:16:32,580
2015 it was like, I think under 3%.

1495
01:16:33,345 --> 01:16:35,745
That's an extraordinary
amount of deficit cutting.

1496
01:16:35,745 --> 01:16:38,445
And it happened democratically
through a legislative process.

1497
01:16:38,715 --> 01:16:43,395
Now it was very painful, and
that pain led to voters not

1498
01:16:43,395 --> 01:16:44,925
caring about deficit reduction.

1499
01:16:44,925 --> 01:16:47,715
And you can actually see on the chart
the share of respondents who say the

1500
01:16:47,715 --> 01:16:52,185
deficit reduction should be a top
priority, declines down to 40% by 2021.

1501
01:16:52,665 --> 01:16:54,195
We're now in a post pandemic world.

1502
01:16:54,825 --> 01:16:57,375
Everybody wants infrastructure
just like Jacob does.

1503
01:16:57,645 --> 01:16:58,575
Everyone's cool with it.

1504
01:16:59,325 --> 01:17:03,315
And we start spending, and Donald
Trump takes advantage of this

1505
01:17:03,315 --> 01:17:07,125
decline in political support
for, for basically prudence.

1506
01:17:07,545 --> 01:17:11,805
He passes the tax cuts in 2017
without any offsets at all.

1507
01:17:11,925 --> 01:17:16,005
Just blows the budget deficit for the
first time since the sixties in what

1508
01:17:16,005 --> 01:17:18,315
economists would call a pro-cyclical way.

1509
01:17:18,435 --> 01:17:21,105
First time since the sixties
that America expanded its

1510
01:17:21,105 --> 01:17:22,605
deficit outside of a recession.

1511
01:17:23,685 --> 01:17:26,745
And then of course, during the pandemic.

1512
01:17:27,645 --> 01:17:32,235
Both President Trump and Speaker of
the House, Nancy Pelosi, basically

1513
01:17:32,235 --> 01:17:35,595
start out doing one, one another who's
gonna, you know, blow through the

1514
01:17:35,595 --> 01:17:37,365
deficit more because it's the pandemic.

1515
01:17:37,695 --> 01:17:40,065
And then Joe Biden famously,
when he became the president in

1516
01:17:40,065 --> 01:17:45,285
early 2021, blows out another 2.1
trillion for no really good reason.

1517
01:17:45,765 --> 01:17:49,575
Like that one, I think was the most
egregious act of fiscal responsibility

1518
01:17:49,575 --> 01:17:55,785
that that February, 2021, that early
2021, basically decision to just do

1519
01:17:55,785 --> 01:17:59,325
some more helicopter drops to the
American public, because why not?

1520
01:17:59,325 --> 01:18:03,255
Even though we had a vaccine on
the way we knew it was coming, and

1521
01:18:03,255 --> 01:18:05,835
it was pretty clear that lockdowns
were not gonna last anymore.

1522
01:18:06,345 --> 01:18:10,185
The point is that this
line bottomed in 2022.

1523
01:18:10,545 --> 01:18:14,715
This support for deficit
reduction bottomed at 40%.

1524
01:18:14,925 --> 01:18:17,955
Only 40% of Americans thought
in 21 that this was important.

1525
01:18:18,105 --> 01:18:19,395
It's now back up to 60.

1526
01:18:20,145 --> 01:18:23,865
It's back up to 60 Jacob
from 40 to 60% in four years.

1527
01:18:23,865 --> 01:18:24,345
Why?

1528
01:18:24,675 --> 01:18:26,805
Because voters are kind of not stupid.

1529
01:18:28,080 --> 01:18:31,469
And they understand that inflation
was one of the consequences

1530
01:18:31,469 --> 01:18:32,910
of all this fiscal orgy.

1531
01:18:33,330 --> 01:18:37,259
And the second thing that I think voters
understand is this crowding out effect.

1532
01:18:37,679 --> 01:18:40,139
They're starting to ask
questions like, wait, why?

1533
01:18:40,230 --> 01:18:45,540
Why is this auto loan, like I was able
to afford a car, buy a car and have an

1534
01:18:45,540 --> 01:18:48,360
interest rate on my auto loan at like 3%?

1535
01:18:48,389 --> 01:18:50,009
Now it's at like 7%.

1536
01:18:50,070 --> 01:18:50,429
Why?

1537
01:18:50,849 --> 01:18:53,160
Why is my mortgage not 2%?

1538
01:18:53,219 --> 01:18:56,370
Why don't we have 2%
mortgages for 30 years?

1539
01:18:56,429 --> 01:18:58,679
And the answer to all
of this is the deficit.

1540
01:18:59,190 --> 01:19:02,940
And so that's why I'm, I think, uh, first
of all, I can empirically prove to you

1541
01:19:03,030 --> 01:19:07,620
that the directionality of this is moving
towards more, uh, fiscal conservatism.

1542
01:19:07,889 --> 01:19:11,309
But the other one is that historically I
think a lot of people are very reticent.

1543
01:19:11,309 --> 01:19:14,009
You know, there's this
very callous and glib view.

1544
01:19:14,009 --> 01:19:19,080
The democracy always stands towards
socialism and towards more spending that

1545
01:19:19,080 --> 01:19:21,570
voters will never vote to cut themselves.

1546
01:19:21,570 --> 01:19:23,790
Their entitlement benefits that.

1547
01:19:24,375 --> 01:19:27,465
Is repeatedly throughout
history proven incorrect.

1548
01:19:28,065 --> 01:19:32,025
Argentina just elected a dude with
a chainsaw and he was carrying a

1549
01:19:32,025 --> 01:19:34,575
chainsaw for a very symbolic reason.

1550
01:19:34,605 --> 01:19:37,755
IE I'm gonna cut The government
people voted for him.

1551
01:19:38,355 --> 01:19:41,535
Margaret Cher did not mince words
about what she was gonna do.

1552
01:19:41,625 --> 01:19:43,815
David Cameron in 2010, same thing.

1553
01:19:44,265 --> 01:19:49,605
Um, and similarly again, Obama and the
tea Party got together and actually

1554
01:19:49,605 --> 01:19:51,495
shrunk the deficit from 10 to 3%.

1555
01:19:51,705 --> 01:19:53,865
Not because they were doing
something voters didn't want.

1556
01:19:54,075 --> 01:19:54,466
No, no, no.

1557
01:19:54,471 --> 01:19:56,355
It was the voters that
pushed them to that.

1558
01:19:57,045 --> 01:20:00,435
Uh, and you can measure where
voters are on this kind of like,

1559
01:20:00,975 --> 01:20:06,735
um, you know, profligate versus
conservative line through just polling.

1560
01:20:06,765 --> 01:20:08,775
And I'm telling you, it's
moving in the other direction.

1561
01:20:09,900 --> 01:20:13,290
Jacob Shapiro: Don't you miss the days
of, uh, you know, civil cooperation

1562
01:20:13,290 --> 01:20:17,430
between the Obamas and the Tea Party when
our, our discourse was so civil and we

1563
01:20:17,430 --> 01:20:20,940
were working together, uh, in order to
reduce the deficit and things like that.

1564
01:20:21,150 --> 01:20:21,300
Yeah.

1565
01:20:21,300 --> 01:20:22,170
This has been a trope.

1566
01:20:23,040 --> 01:20:24,510
This has been a trope in our podcast.

1567
01:20:24,540 --> 01:20:26,760
Uh, you might be right about this,
so I feel like I need to think

1568
01:20:26,760 --> 01:20:29,220
about a little bit more, but I will
disagree with you until the day

1569
01:20:29,220 --> 01:20:32,490
that I die that the voters are smart
or know anything, they're morons.

1570
01:20:32,490 --> 01:20:35,400
The Cornell University Lee Club
cured me of my toxic masculinity,

1571
01:20:35,400 --> 01:20:37,170
but not of my intellectual elitism.

1572
01:20:37,170 --> 01:20:38,160
It's all a bunch of idiots.

1573
01:20:38,970 --> 01:20:39,450
Um,

1574
01:20:40,590 --> 01:20:43,110
Marko Papic: well, you know what
I would say, I would say that, uh,

1575
01:20:43,170 --> 01:20:50,490
voters over the long term approximate
good judgment, asymptotically.

1576
01:20:52,710 --> 01:20:53,130
Jacob Shapiro: I don't know.

1577
01:20:53,135 --> 01:20:53,790
I, I don't think so.

1578
01:20:53,790 --> 01:20:56,520
And your ar I don't think your Argentina
example actually helps you that much

1579
01:20:56,520 --> 01:20:59,880
because things had to get, you literally
had to get to hyperinflation and people

1580
01:20:59,880 --> 01:21:03,990
had to get, so, like, things had to
get so bad in Argentina that they were

1581
01:21:03,990 --> 01:21:09,330
literally willing to elect any crazy
person who was just seen as different, um,

1582
01:21:09,600 --> 01:21:10,140
Marko Papic: which, yeah.

1583
01:21:10,200 --> 01:21:12,480
You know, and, and there's a lot
of examples of that, by the way.

1584
01:21:12,870 --> 01:21:17,370
Uh, after the financial crisis in
Greece, massive fiscal consolidation.

1585
01:21:17,370 --> 01:21:21,090
Greece is now doing really, I
mean, relatively well, uh, not

1586
01:21:21,090 --> 01:21:22,620
really well, but relatively well.

1587
01:21:22,680 --> 01:21:24,270
Uh, we talked about that recently.

1588
01:21:24,330 --> 01:21:24,420
Mm-hmm.

1589
01:21:24,660 --> 01:21:28,680
Uh, you know, um, so yes, you are
right that financial crisis do help.

1590
01:21:29,850 --> 01:21:31,710
They help push in this direction.

1591
01:21:32,250 --> 01:21:36,120
Um, but again, you know, it doesn't
have to be a financial crisis.

1592
01:21:36,120 --> 01:21:38,520
It can also just be a, a slow burn.

1593
01:21:38,880 --> 01:21:39,810
And that's what I'm telling you.

1594
01:21:39,810 --> 01:21:42,540
What I'm basically telling you,
Jacob, is that we have a slow burn.

1595
01:21:42,570 --> 01:21:45,660
We have a burden on the economy,
which is the high interest rates,

1596
01:21:45,660 --> 01:21:46,530
and they're not going away.

1597
01:21:47,190 --> 01:21:49,590
And it's gonna be very
difficult to overcome that.

1598
01:21:50,415 --> 01:21:52,995
Unless the government actually.

1599
01:21:53,610 --> 01:21:58,080
Releases some of that potential
by cutting its own debt burden.

1600
01:21:58,800 --> 01:22:00,900
Jacob Shapiro: Um, yeah, and I,
and I think that counterfactual,

1601
01:22:00,930 --> 01:22:03,180
'cause I we're, we're gonna talk
about this I think throughout the

1602
01:22:03,180 --> 01:22:04,260
course of the rest of six, 12 months.

1603
01:22:04,260 --> 01:22:07,470
'cause I think you are correct that
this is gonna be like the Rubicon or

1604
01:22:07,470 --> 01:22:10,620
this is gonna be like the thing that is
gonna animate politics going forward.

1605
01:22:10,620 --> 01:22:14,790
But I, I go back to what I said earlier,
which is, I'm with you sort of a ways

1606
01:22:14,790 --> 01:22:17,820
there, but I think what's different
about this time is that the populace

1607
01:22:17,820 --> 01:22:23,940
have captured in large part the state and
populace are not going to cut spending.

1608
01:22:23,940 --> 01:22:27,930
Populists have to keep on giving
the goodies in order to maintain,

1609
01:22:28,260 --> 01:22:30,120
uh, their political positions.

1610
01:22:30,120 --> 01:22:33,630
And Trump, and we talked about Bernie
earlier, also a populist, like a

1611
01:22:33,630 --> 01:22:36,540
lot of these folks that are in the
house, these are populists, these

1612
01:22:36,540 --> 01:22:39,510
are not people that I think are gonna
turn their back on on this spending.

1613
01:22:39,510 --> 01:22:41,760
They couldn't do it even though
like they're, you know, you had

1614
01:22:41,790 --> 01:22:42,840
Doge and these other things.

1615
01:22:42,900 --> 01:22:44,400
Wandering around trying to do that.

1616
01:22:44,670 --> 01:22:48,629
And I think the problem is that even with,
even like, let's accept the argument,

1617
01:22:48,629 --> 01:22:51,839
like let's say, okay, it's only 2
trillion, it's, it's not as conservative.

1618
01:22:52,049 --> 01:22:55,110
Let's, let's, I don't think we're
gonna get a trillion and a half

1619
01:22:55,110 --> 01:22:57,120
of tariff for revenue, but okay,
let's say we get the trillion and

1620
01:22:57,120 --> 01:22:58,500
a half of tariff for revenue too.

1621
01:22:58,920 --> 01:23:02,700
Like, okay, it's still like we
got nothing for all of this.

1622
01:23:02,879 --> 01:23:06,660
And we're sitting on a society that is not
gonna manufacture things, that is giving

1623
01:23:06,660 --> 01:23:10,650
up a lead in innovation that is behind
on and is going to be further behind

1624
01:23:10,650 --> 01:23:12,210
on all of these other different things.

1625
01:23:12,210 --> 01:23:14,849
And so you're gonna get governments
that are gonna look at this equation

1626
01:23:14,849 --> 01:23:19,200
and be like, well, do I keep giving the
goodies or do I make the hard cuts and

1627
01:23:19,290 --> 01:23:23,429
take people off social security and take
people off Medicare and take people off

1628
01:23:23,429 --> 01:23:27,809
Medicaid and cut us military spending
and go after the big ticket budget items

1629
01:23:28,200 --> 01:23:29,610
in order that things are gonna grow.

1630
01:23:29,610 --> 01:23:32,820
But like to do that, like you
have to rehabilitate the society

1631
01:23:32,820 --> 01:23:34,200
and rehabilitate the economy.

1632
01:23:34,200 --> 01:23:35,670
And we're not like, we're not there yet.

1633
01:23:35,670 --> 01:23:37,679
Like we're not laying
the groundwork for that.

1634
01:23:37,679 --> 01:23:39,509
So you'll get into this trap where.

1635
01:23:40,184 --> 01:23:43,844
Like, it's not gonna be like it was
in previous iterations because like

1636
01:23:44,235 --> 01:23:47,384
you would need spending just to get
the economy to where it can take

1637
01:23:47,384 --> 01:23:48,674
advantage of what you're talking about.

1638
01:23:48,674 --> 01:23:49,065
Does that make sense?

1639
01:23:49,065 --> 01:23:49,155
Well,

1640
01:23:49,155 --> 01:23:52,634
Marko Papic: actually there is another way
to do it, and I think that populists can

1641
01:23:52,634 --> 01:23:55,665
get us there and it's left-wing populists.

1642
01:23:55,905 --> 01:24:00,855
And so for everyone out there who's on
the center right, all the way to the

1643
01:24:00,855 --> 01:24:05,504
far right, you know, be very careful
with this notion that like, oh, Trump is

1644
01:24:05,504 --> 01:24:09,315
just gonna be like Nero and burn Rome,
because what's waiting in the wings

1645
01:24:09,344 --> 01:24:11,445
is an alternative way to cut deficits.

1646
01:24:14,115 --> 01:24:18,705
And it's called raising taxes
to the nose bleed levels baby.

1647
01:24:19,035 --> 01:24:22,815
You know, that's, that's another
way you can solve this issue.

1648
01:24:23,235 --> 01:24:25,485
So we keep talking about
cuts, cuts, cuts, cuts, cuts.

1649
01:24:25,964 --> 01:24:27,344
Oh, you know, cuts to
Medicare, this, that.

1650
01:24:27,735 --> 01:24:31,365
But let's be very clear, president
Trump is getting none of his

1651
01:24:31,365 --> 01:24:32,474
priorities from the election.

1652
01:24:33,254 --> 01:24:35,924
Like, you know, taxes and tips are
going through a, a couple of other

1653
01:24:35,924 --> 01:24:37,275
things, but for the most part.

1654
01:24:37,860 --> 01:24:40,740
You know, he talked about expanding
the deficit, 10 to 15 trillion.

1655
01:24:40,799 --> 01:24:43,469
Not literally, I mean, he didn't
say those words, but when you do the

1656
01:24:43,469 --> 01:24:47,129
math, you put all of his priorities,
he's getting none of those.

1657
01:24:47,129 --> 01:24:51,750
Jacob, the vast majority of this
bill is going, you know what?

1658
01:24:52,290 --> 01:24:54,330
It's going towards
keeping the law the same.

1659
01:24:56,040 --> 01:24:57,809
And this is what a lot of
people don't understand.

1660
01:24:58,500 --> 01:25:02,519
It costs a lot of money
to keep the 2017 tax cuts.

1661
01:25:03,690 --> 01:25:04,650
Why did they expire?

1662
01:25:05,700 --> 01:25:07,980
Because they were not
funded, as I said earlier.

1663
01:25:08,040 --> 01:25:08,309
Jacob Shapiro: Yeah.

1664
01:25:08,910 --> 01:25:11,339
Marko Papic: They were not funded
and because they were not funded,

1665
01:25:11,339 --> 01:25:15,629
the reconciliation procedure, which
is used to pass the 60 c pejorative

1666
01:25:15,629 --> 01:25:21,960
said the reconciliation procedure
basically forces you to, uh, uh,

1667
01:25:21,960 --> 01:25:24,599
sunset those, those, uh, that bill.

1668
01:25:25,290 --> 01:25:30,299
And so the, the fact of the matter,
Jacob, is that there's an easy way, easy

1669
01:25:30,299 --> 01:25:33,330
way to significantly reduce the deficit.

1670
01:25:33,330 --> 01:25:39,554
I. It would be to just let, uh, the
tax cuts of 2017 basically sunset and

1671
01:25:39,554 --> 01:25:42,165
I expected the next president of the
United States of America, if it's not

1672
01:25:42,165 --> 01:25:46,755
a Republican, will effectively take us
back to the tax rates, uh, of pre 2017.

1673
01:25:47,715 --> 01:25:49,755
Jacob Shapiro: Well, and, and I think
you actually, I think you made the

1674
01:25:49,755 --> 01:25:52,125
important point here, which is that
there's an alternative to what you're

1675
01:25:52,125 --> 01:25:55,094
talking about and that it's on the left
and that it's higher taxes, of course.

1676
01:25:55,155 --> 01:25:58,394
And, and, and this is where like, I,
like I do think some of what's happening.

1677
01:25:58,755 --> 01:26:01,155
Well, I don't know, like,
maybe, maybe Trump is right.

1678
01:26:01,155 --> 01:26:03,945
Maybe he really could shoot
someone in fifth and fifth Avenue

1679
01:26:03,945 --> 01:26:05,235
and nobody's gonna pay attention.

1680
01:26:05,505 --> 01:26:08,985
But when you look at things like, oh,
charging however much money so you

1681
01:26:08,985 --> 01:26:13,965
can get access or not, not charging
money, uh, however much Trump meme coin

1682
01:26:13,965 --> 01:26:17,355
that you buy, you get personal access
to the dinner with President Trump.

1683
01:26:17,655 --> 01:26:20,745
Uh, you can buy club memberships for
the new club that they're setting up

1684
01:26:20,745 --> 01:26:24,045
in Washington dc I think the starting
membership is gonna be $500,000.

1685
01:26:24,045 --> 01:26:27,825
All the deals that the Trumps are signing,
um, in the Emirates and in the Gulf.

1686
01:26:27,825 --> 01:26:30,795
And like, I mean, they've, they've
made billions of dollars so far on

1687
01:26:30,795 --> 01:26:32,235
some of these like crypto initiatives.

1688
01:26:32,235 --> 01:26:34,785
And I think we should save like
crypto and Bitcoin, like for a

1689
01:26:34,785 --> 01:26:36,255
proper conversation down the road.

1690
01:26:36,495 --> 01:26:40,605
But which is just to say if the re, if
the net result of all of this is that the

1691
01:26:40,605 --> 01:26:45,705
rich get richer and that you literally
have, um, like the president of the United

1692
01:26:45,705 --> 01:26:48,135
States using the office to enrich himself.

1693
01:26:48,450 --> 01:26:52,440
Like that is eventually gonna give the
other side fodder for Yeah, tax the rich.

1694
01:26:52,440 --> 01:26:53,790
How did they get that money?

1695
01:26:54,030 --> 01:26:57,599
Like, we want some of that piece of the
pie that needs to come back into the

1696
01:26:57,599 --> 01:27:01,379
system rather being taken out by these
people who are still manufacturing in

1697
01:27:01,379 --> 01:27:05,099
China or who are, you know, in their
ritzy clubs or in their, you know, gold

1698
01:27:05,099 --> 01:27:06,750
plated toilets and things like that.

1699
01:27:06,750 --> 01:27:09,570
Like, I think there is a
populous move waiting there.

1700
01:27:09,570 --> 01:27:13,290
And to your point, if the auto loan
rates go up enough and then the mortgage

1701
01:27:13,290 --> 01:27:16,920
rates go up enough and you can't
blame the Biden crime family, or you

1702
01:27:16,920 --> 01:27:20,639
can't blame the woke people anymore
for that because it was the Trump

1703
01:27:20,639 --> 01:27:22,440
administration that was doing all of it.

1704
01:27:22,710 --> 01:27:26,519
Like there is sort of a counter o
okay, like let's let's take out the

1705
01:27:26,519 --> 01:27:28,049
Franklin Delano Roosevelt playbook.

1706
01:27:28,049 --> 01:27:31,200
Let's get taxes up in the
50 to 70% effective range.

1707
01:27:31,200 --> 01:27:33,629
Let's do all of this different
government spending and hands

1708
01:27:33,629 --> 01:27:34,620
outs and things like that.

1709
01:27:34,620 --> 01:27:38,160
Like I do think that's a door,
um, that is, that is lurking

1710
01:27:38,160 --> 01:27:39,330
in the background a door.

1711
01:27:39,330 --> 01:27:39,900
I think it is.

1712
01:27:39,905 --> 01:27:41,849
What, what beautiful
metaphorical language for me,

1713
01:27:42,330 --> 01:27:45,780
Marko Papic: I think, I think
life is about the delta.

1714
01:27:46,215 --> 01:27:47,895
Life is about perceiving.

1715
01:27:47,895 --> 01:27:51,315
I mean, markets certainly are, you
know, being an investor investment

1716
01:27:51,315 --> 01:27:52,635
strategist has taught me that.

1717
01:27:53,235 --> 01:27:56,145
Um, it's not about the
levels, it's about the delta.

1718
01:27:56,565 --> 01:27:57,735
It's about a rate of change.

1719
01:27:57,915 --> 01:28:01,425
And what I think is the most profound
thing is that President Trump walked

1720
01:28:01,425 --> 01:28:08,055
into office expecting to do what he did
in 2017, blow the deficit, five, seven,

1721
01:28:08,265 --> 01:28:13,095
$10 trillion funding, maybe some of
it through some cuts, but not really.

1722
01:28:13,635 --> 01:28:18,465
And he's been pushed by the combined
efforts of the bond market and members

1723
01:28:18,465 --> 01:28:23,325
of the house to get that down to two
to three with sum tariff revenue.

1724
01:28:24,375 --> 01:28:30,315
And that is actually a shocking
rate of change towards a more

1725
01:28:30,315 --> 01:28:32,265
conservative approach to deficits.

1726
01:28:32,955 --> 01:28:36,555
Now I think that, I think that
over the next five years, that's

1727
01:28:36,555 --> 01:28:38,175
gonna include some tax increases.

1728
01:28:38,175 --> 01:28:38,535
Yes.

1729
01:28:38,655 --> 01:28:40,455
It's not just gonna be finding cuts.

1730
01:28:40,545 --> 01:28:41,415
You're absolutely right.

1731
01:28:41,420 --> 01:28:44,865
There's gonna be a little bit more, but
right now we can close on this, but.

1732
01:28:45,360 --> 01:28:48,240
Right now, the United States of
America spends more on financing

1733
01:28:48,240 --> 01:28:50,940
that deficit than on the US military.

1734
01:28:51,180 --> 01:28:54,599
So just think, you know, that
that's ultimately unsustainable

1735
01:28:54,840 --> 01:28:55,650
and we'll have to change.

1736
01:28:58,080 --> 01:28:59,040
Jacob Shapiro: That's a
good place to leave it.

1737
01:28:59,190 --> 01:29:01,500
Any parting thoughts on the NBA
finals before we get outta here?

1738
01:29:02,610 --> 01:29:05,519
Marko Papic: Uh, I mean, you
know, so there's a geopolitical

1739
01:29:05,519 --> 01:29:07,320
s to the, uh, to the finals.

1740
01:29:07,320 --> 01:29:11,130
I mean, uh, looks like it's gonna be
Indianapolis versus Oklahoma City.

1741
01:29:12,059 --> 01:29:12,720
That is.

1742
01:29:12,735 --> 01:29:12,855
I,

1743
01:29:12,930 --> 01:29:14,280
Jacob Shapiro: I wouldn't
count out the Knicks yet.

1744
01:29:14,340 --> 01:29:15,480
Uh, I guess we should would

1745
01:29:15,480 --> 01:29:16,950
Marko Papic: not count out the Knicks yet.

1746
01:29:17,490 --> 01:29:17,670
I don't know.

1747
01:29:17,910 --> 01:29:18,840
Jacob Shapiro: Hope Springs eternal.

1748
01:29:19,980 --> 01:29:20,880
Marko Papic: Um, okay.

1749
01:29:20,880 --> 01:29:24,809
Well if it is Indianapolis versus
OKC, though, uh, I just thought it's,

1750
01:29:24,840 --> 01:29:28,980
it's funny because it's kind of like
Trump country, you know, and yet he

1751
01:29:28,980 --> 01:29:31,559
hates the NBA, which is interesting.

1752
01:29:31,980 --> 01:29:35,280
Um, and, uh, yeah, I mean,
like, it's kind of cool.

1753
01:29:35,400 --> 01:29:39,720
I think especially for Indianapolis, it's
a huge, you know, like basketball city.

1754
01:29:39,720 --> 01:29:42,090
I think if they make it to the finals,
I think that would be kind of fun.

1755
01:29:42,570 --> 01:29:43,110
Um.

1756
01:29:43,634 --> 01:29:44,985
I guess the same for OKC.

1757
01:29:45,224 --> 01:29:47,745
Uh, I've been, I've been to OKC,
I've watched the game there.

1758
01:29:47,745 --> 01:29:49,304
It is, it is a great atmosphere.

1759
01:29:49,724 --> 01:29:53,325
Um, but as long as the Seattle
Supersonics don't exist, I'm

1760
01:29:53,325 --> 01:29:56,835
always going to be a little bit
miffed about OKC, having a team.

1761
01:29:58,875 --> 01:29:59,144
Jacob Shapiro: Yeah.

1762
01:29:59,894 --> 01:30:02,775
I wish I could make it interesting,
but I I really, I I, it's gonna be

1763
01:30:02,835 --> 01:30:04,695
KC that, that seems pretty clear.

1764
01:30:04,695 --> 01:30:06,855
It's probably gonna be OKC for the
rest of the century, unless the

1765
01:30:06,855 --> 01:30:08,235
Spurs have something to say about it.

1766
01:30:09,675 --> 01:30:11,684
Marko Papic: I think, I think
they're, they're a great team.

1767
01:30:11,684 --> 01:30:16,035
I think, um, you know, dot is amazing.

1768
01:30:16,934 --> 01:30:21,375
Uh, I think that his defensive prowess is
really, really, uh, what sets them apart.

1769
01:30:21,465 --> 01:30:25,724
One thing I would say though is that
I feel that that team has a very

1770
01:30:25,724 --> 01:30:27,554
high variance on how it's refered.

1771
01:30:28,335 --> 01:30:32,775
And I don't mean this in a bad way,
but like, um, you know, I think that

1772
01:30:32,775 --> 01:30:35,085
what they did to Yoic was amazing.

1773
01:30:35,475 --> 01:30:40,965
Um, uh, like Caruso was draped all over
him, but every single minute, every

1774
01:30:40,965 --> 01:30:43,155
single second of that exchange was a foul.

1775
01:30:43,965 --> 01:30:46,455
And it just came down to whether
you're gonna call it or not.

1776
01:30:46,875 --> 01:30:53,205
And so I don't think that OKC has
like a recipe for long-term success

1777
01:30:53,595 --> 01:30:58,065
because despite the fact that SGA
obviously is amazing, I just feel

1778
01:30:58,065 --> 01:31:02,655
that at some point over the next 12
months, the referees could stop kind

1779
01:31:02,655 --> 01:31:04,185
of treating them like a novelty.

1780
01:31:04,185 --> 01:31:05,535
Like, oh my goodness, look at them.

1781
01:31:05,535 --> 01:31:07,845
They, they beat the crap
out of their opponents.

1782
01:31:07,845 --> 01:31:11,730
So the perimeter, you know, like the
reason that Caruso can guard Yoki is

1783
01:31:11,835 --> 01:31:13,095
'cause you're letting him file him.

1784
01:31:13,635 --> 01:31:18,585
Um, the reason that.is able to shut
people down on the perimeter is that

1785
01:31:18,585 --> 01:31:21,045
quite often he is following the screener.

1786
01:31:21,585 --> 01:31:22,905
He is, um, you know.

1787
01:31:25,634 --> 01:31:26,745
What's the backup point guard?

1788
01:31:26,804 --> 01:31:28,004
Uh, number 22.

1789
01:31:28,035 --> 01:31:29,174
My brain just stopped.

1790
01:31:29,174 --> 01:31:33,615
But, uh, you know, that guy like is
a hundred percent using his hands

1791
01:31:33,615 --> 01:31:38,504
on defense Every ABA play now in the
NBA, everyone's just like wrestling.

1792
01:31:38,625 --> 01:31:39,584
I don't know if you've noticed that.

1793
01:31:39,584 --> 01:31:40,125
Yeah, that's a lot.

1794
01:31:40,875 --> 01:31:45,644
Um, and so anyways, um, I'm not sure how
sustainable that is in the long term.

1795
01:31:45,825 --> 01:31:50,174
I think at some point, or, you know, the
NBA has these, these waves where they just

1796
01:31:50,174 --> 01:31:53,355
kinda let something happen 'cause it's
novel and they're like, oh wait, that's,

1797
01:31:53,474 --> 01:31:55,665
that's actually really aggressive defense.

1798
01:31:55,665 --> 01:31:56,924
No, we're gonna start calling foul.

1799
01:31:57,375 --> 01:32:00,945
And then suddenly their defense
isn't as good as it was in the past.

1800
01:32:02,205 --> 01:32:03,224
Jacob Shapiro: Yeah, that's a fair point.

1801
01:32:04,514 --> 01:32:05,924
All right, we'll get you outta here.

1802
01:32:06,224 --> 01:32:07,004
Let's go get some coffee.