1 00:00:03,630 --> 00:00:05,430 Jacob Smulian: Hello and welcome to another episode 2 00:00:05,430 --> 00:00:07,320 of the Jacob Shapiro podcast. 3 00:00:07,320 --> 00:00:10,290 I am your editor and producer, other Jacob. 4 00:00:10,800 --> 00:00:16,650 Today we have Tobias Harris, the starting forward on the Detroit Pistons. 5 00:00:16,770 --> 00:00:20,460 He's gonna talk to us about the geopolitics of Japan. 6 00:00:20,610 --> 00:00:21,450 That's all I got. 7 00:00:21,450 --> 00:00:22,410 We're gonna dive in. 8 00:00:22,890 --> 00:00:25,890 Um, go tell your loved ones that you love them. 9 00:00:25,890 --> 00:00:26,940 Go touch some grass. 10 00:00:27,310 --> 00:00:28,930 And, uh, we'll see you out there. 11 00:00:31,930 --> 00:00:35,080 Jacob Shapiro: Uh, really pleased to welcome the, uh, starting 12 00:00:35,080 --> 00:00:36,400 forward on the Detroit Piston. 13 00:00:36,415 --> 00:00:37,210 Oh, oh wait. 14 00:00:37,210 --> 00:00:40,060 Sorry, I got the wrong, can somebody get me the right bio over here? 15 00:00:40,060 --> 00:00:43,120 I, I thought about doing a Zach AKAs between two Ferns and just treating 16 00:00:43,120 --> 00:00:45,760 you like the Detroit Pistons, Tobias Harris, the whole time. 17 00:00:45,760 --> 00:00:46,840 I thought that would've been funny. 18 00:00:46,840 --> 00:00:47,710 It's good to see you, man. 19 00:00:47,710 --> 00:00:49,000 Thanks for making the time to come on. 20 00:00:49,330 --> 00:00:50,290 No, it's great to be back. 21 00:00:50,290 --> 00:00:50,920 Thanks, Jacob. 22 00:00:52,095 --> 00:00:53,864 Uh, we will throw this in the show notes. 23 00:00:53,894 --> 00:00:57,525 Um, uh, the last time Tobias came on, I was not yet a subscriber to, 24 00:00:57,555 --> 00:00:59,235 uh, his substack observing Japan. 25 00:00:59,235 --> 00:00:59,985 I am now. 26 00:00:59,985 --> 00:01:02,474 And I can attest it's as good as you might expect it to be 27 00:01:02,474 --> 00:01:03,585 from the last time he was on. 28 00:01:03,585 --> 00:01:06,765 So I appreciate, um, uh, Tobias making the time. 29 00:01:06,795 --> 00:01:10,875 Uh, we could start in a lot of different places, but we should probably start 30 00:01:10,875 --> 00:01:13,545 in the obvious place, which is, um. 31 00:01:14,310 --> 00:01:18,270 Liberation Day, uh, United States tariffs, not just on enemies, 32 00:01:18,270 --> 00:01:20,460 but on allies, including Japan. 33 00:01:20,880 --> 00:01:23,190 Uh, and it wasn't, I, I see. 34 00:01:23,190 --> 00:01:26,700 If I characterize this correctly, it seems to me that in some sense the biggest 35 00:01:26,970 --> 00:01:30,360 negative reaction to us tariffs and the. 36 00:01:30,385 --> 00:01:33,085 The protectionist impulse in US trade policy in some ways 37 00:01:33,085 --> 00:01:35,215 has not been China or Europe. 38 00:01:35,215 --> 00:01:38,695 It has been Japan, which has basically said we're not signing on 39 00:01:38,695 --> 00:01:43,135 to anti-China provisions and we expect the rollback of all of these tariffs. 40 00:01:43,465 --> 00:01:47,695 Uh, you've had what, five trade meetings now between the United States and Japan? 41 00:01:48,025 --> 00:01:50,395 Um, seemed like the last one didn't go anywhere, that there's 42 00:01:50,395 --> 00:01:52,165 no agreement on just about. 43 00:01:52,165 --> 00:01:54,475 Anything between the two sides. 44 00:01:54,505 --> 00:01:58,225 Um, so, um, where, where are Japan US relations at? 45 00:01:58,225 --> 00:02:02,335 Because from somebody who is not focused on Japan all the time, it seems like Japan 46 00:02:02,695 --> 00:02:06,085 is basically saying to the United States like, we're not going along with you. 47 00:02:06,085 --> 00:02:08,935 And that's pretty shocking because there's arguably no country in the world 48 00:02:08,935 --> 00:02:13,555 that is more dependent on US security that is closer to the United States, 49 00:02:13,555 --> 00:02:15,175 outside of the five eyes in Japan. 50 00:02:15,175 --> 00:02:17,575 And it looks like relations are not particularly good. 51 00:02:17,575 --> 00:02:19,915 So am I overcharacterizing it? 52 00:02:22,019 --> 00:02:24,390 Tobias Harris: Well, it's, I mean, the situation in some ways is a 53 00:02:24,390 --> 00:02:29,670 worst nightmare for Japan because of course, you, as you noted that, 54 00:02:29,670 --> 00:02:32,549 I mean, they depend on the, on the United States for its security. 55 00:02:32,850 --> 00:02:37,350 And, and more than that, they want, you know, the goal of Japanese foreign 56 00:02:37,350 --> 00:02:40,800 PO central goal of Japanese foreign policy for a long time now has been 57 00:02:40,829 --> 00:02:45,540 keeping the United States engaged, uh, in what, I guess what we now call the 58 00:02:45,540 --> 00:02:50,010 Indo-Pacific, you know, economically, politically, militarily, you know, that. 59 00:02:50,670 --> 00:02:56,640 If the US is not engaged and committed that Japan's security will be, uh, 60 00:02:57,060 --> 00:03:01,590 will be detriment, it'll be extremely detrimental for Japan's security. 61 00:03:01,590 --> 00:03:05,519 So, uh, on all those scores, that is, that has been Japan's main goal. 62 00:03:05,579 --> 00:03:12,120 And the fact that you now have, uh, you know, a US administration, 63 00:03:12,480 --> 00:03:14,730 uh, you have to not only, uh. 64 00:03:15,075 --> 00:03:19,845 Is reconsidering that longstanding commitment, but, you know, now is 65 00:03:20,025 --> 00:03:24,465 essentially asking a, a, a higher price to be paid by Japan and 66 00:03:24,465 --> 00:03:28,695 other US allies to, to keep doing things, uh, that it was doing. 67 00:03:28,695 --> 00:03:31,395 I mean, it just puts Japan in, in such an uncomfortable situation. 68 00:03:31,425 --> 00:03:34,785 And of course, you know, for Japanese companies, the United States is, you 69 00:03:34,785 --> 00:03:36,405 know, an exceedingly important market. 70 00:03:36,735 --> 00:03:39,075 Uh, you, Japan invests a lot in the United States. 71 00:03:39,075 --> 00:03:40,215 I mean, it's just, it's, it's. 72 00:03:40,530 --> 00:03:44,280 Something that frankly they just would prefer not to have to deal with. 73 00:03:44,760 --> 00:03:48,269 Uh, but they do have red lines, so they can't just say, well, we need 74 00:03:48,269 --> 00:03:51,989 to keep, we're gonna do anything to keep the US happy because ultimately, 75 00:03:52,320 --> 00:03:55,140 uh, there are prices that Japan does not feel comfortable paying. 76 00:03:55,140 --> 00:03:56,910 And so that's really where things are stuck right now. 77 00:03:58,965 --> 00:04:00,135 Jacob Shapiro: Yeah, that makes sense. 78 00:04:00,135 --> 00:04:03,735 And there's also some level, I think, of consternation on the Japanese side 79 00:04:03,735 --> 00:04:07,125 because if you believe the US reporting on this, like the US doesn't even 80 00:04:07,125 --> 00:04:09,015 really know what it wants from Japan. 81 00:04:09,315 --> 00:04:10,725 I thought you laid out really well. 82 00:04:10,725 --> 00:04:13,755 Like, you know, there's the Stephen Miran approach and then there's what 83 00:04:13,755 --> 00:04:15,195 the United States is actually doing. 84 00:04:15,195 --> 00:04:19,335 And then there's the reporting on that meeting where Greer and Lutnick. 85 00:04:19,935 --> 00:04:22,785 Cent are all in the meeting and have to pause the meeting because 86 00:04:22,785 --> 00:04:25,395 they don't agree on what they're asking from the Japanese side. 87 00:04:25,395 --> 00:04:29,205 So maybe like some, some of this is just like Japan not quite understanding 88 00:04:29,205 --> 00:04:30,735 what it is the United States wants. 89 00:04:31,215 --> 00:04:35,055 Um, what do you think the United States wants, like what, what do you think 90 00:04:35,055 --> 00:04:37,815 the United States is trying to get out of this and what would be like, are 91 00:04:37,815 --> 00:04:41,925 there any, are there any concessions that Japan is gonna be willing to make? 92 00:04:41,925 --> 00:04:44,835 Because I sort of read their current position as like, you guys are 93 00:04:44,835 --> 00:04:47,055 crazy, so come to us with a real. 94 00:04:47,265 --> 00:04:49,275 Ask and sure we can talk. 95 00:04:49,275 --> 00:04:52,755 But right now, like, does it, like this is, this is bonkers. 96 00:04:52,755 --> 00:04:53,895 Like we have nothing to work with. 97 00:04:54,435 --> 00:04:57,495 Tobias Harris: Well, just as an aside on, so the reporting about, 98 00:04:57,675 --> 00:05:01,815 you know, the US negotiators arguing with each other, um, that I believe, 99 00:05:01,875 --> 00:05:05,085 I believe came from Nikkei, um, you know, which tells you it's, I know 100 00:05:05,085 --> 00:05:06,555 clearly saying the Japanese government. 101 00:05:07,395 --> 00:05:08,984 Wanted out there. 102 00:05:09,044 --> 00:05:11,445 Like, this is, this is what we're dealing with in these talks. 103 00:05:11,835 --> 00:05:14,895 But, and the article, at least, at least the Japanese version 104 00:05:14,895 --> 00:05:15,794 of the article mentioned this. 105 00:05:15,794 --> 00:05:18,734 And I, and I, I mean, I thought it was, uh, you know, that was the first 106 00:05:18,734 --> 00:05:21,974 thing that came to mind was that, you know, back in the, the eighties, 107 00:05:21,974 --> 00:05:23,505 nineties when, you know, you had. 108 00:05:23,955 --> 00:05:26,865 Serious, longstanding friction between the US and Japan. 109 00:05:27,255 --> 00:05:30,885 Uh, you know, Japan didn't really have the equivalent of A-U-S-T-R at that point. 110 00:05:30,885 --> 00:05:34,515 And so you, you had Japanese negotiators from different parts of 111 00:05:34,515 --> 00:05:35,835 the Japanese government doing that. 112 00:05:35,895 --> 00:05:36,495 Essentially. 113 00:05:36,870 --> 00:05:39,795 I, I mean, you know, almost the exact same scenes where, you know, you'd 114 00:05:39,795 --> 00:05:44,505 have the, the, the Mitzi guy arguing with the Ministry of Finance guy and 115 00:05:44,505 --> 00:05:47,775 the foreign ministry and, you know, they'd be, um, having arguments in 116 00:05:47,775 --> 00:05:51,165 front of the United States where the US actually did have a unified, uh. 117 00:05:51,225 --> 00:05:54,255 Position in the course, you know, represented by the USTR. 118 00:05:54,645 --> 00:05:59,925 And so it's just, it's a little funny to see the situation reversed where, 119 00:06:00,105 --> 00:06:03,315 uh, actually heading into the TPP negotiations, one of the innovations 120 00:06:03,315 --> 00:06:07,155 Japan made, uh, this was the, uh, you know, under Abe was, you know, 121 00:06:07,155 --> 00:06:10,875 we actually can't enter these talks and do it the way we used to do. 122 00:06:10,875 --> 00:06:13,905 We actually have to have our own sort of answer to USTR. 123 00:06:14,295 --> 00:06:14,595 Um. 124 00:06:15,020 --> 00:06:19,040 Part of the reason why, you know, the US and Japan were actually able to overcome 125 00:06:19,040 --> 00:06:22,970 a lot of longstanding hurdles in those talks was that, uh, you did essentially 126 00:06:22,970 --> 00:06:26,270 have a US trade representative negotiating with the Japan trade representative. 127 00:06:26,630 --> 00:06:29,990 Uh, and, and instead of having, um. 128 00:06:30,275 --> 00:06:33,155 You know, one side or the other are arguing amongst themselves 129 00:06:33,155 --> 00:06:34,235 on the other side of the table. 130 00:06:34,235 --> 00:06:37,565 And so now here we are full circle and Japan is like, we wish we were 131 00:06:37,565 --> 00:06:40,475 negotiating with a single negotiator instead of, you know, watching 132 00:06:40,475 --> 00:06:42,185 them negotiate amongst themselves. 133 00:06:42,665 --> 00:06:45,065 But that, I mean, in some ways that really is the fundamental problem because 134 00:06:45,065 --> 00:06:48,335 it does seem that there are some really irreconcilable goals within the Trump 135 00:06:48,335 --> 00:06:50,555 administration where you have, um. 136 00:06:51,330 --> 00:06:53,640 You know, what sounds like, you know, the, the Lunik position? 137 00:06:53,640 --> 00:06:57,210 The Navarro position where the goal really is we, the United States just 138 00:06:57,210 --> 00:06:59,820 needs to buy less stuff from foreigners. 139 00:06:59,940 --> 00:07:00,270 Right? 140 00:07:00,270 --> 00:07:01,350 That, that is the goal. 141 00:07:01,350 --> 00:07:02,100 In which case, um. 142 00:07:03,255 --> 00:07:07,544 There doesn't seem to be a whole lot of room to negotiate, um, on a lot of 143 00:07:07,544 --> 00:07:11,625 these tariffs where, you know, we're not, you know, this is not like, you 144 00:07:11,625 --> 00:07:14,534 know, we're gonna, you know, raise our tariffs and then we're gonna 145 00:07:14,534 --> 00:07:16,155 negotiate with you for concessions. 146 00:07:16,155 --> 00:07:19,905 And ultimately the goal is to remove, you know, most of the tariffs so that 147 00:07:20,085 --> 00:07:22,185 you know, but ultimately get some, some. 148 00:07:22,575 --> 00:07:26,415 Some concessions out of view to give our producers more market access. 149 00:07:26,745 --> 00:07:30,315 That, you know, does not seem to be the thinking of a lot of people in the 150 00:07:30,315 --> 00:07:34,515 administration, um, versus someone like bein who does, you know, certainly at 151 00:07:34,515 --> 00:07:38,415 different times has suggested that the goal is to negotiate and ultimately 152 00:07:38,655 --> 00:07:43,095 to get better terms of access for, uh, US producers in a foreign market. 153 00:07:43,095 --> 00:07:44,475 And so, you know. 154 00:07:45,450 --> 00:07:49,380 One of those positions Japan can work with, you know, Japan, you know, if 155 00:07:49,380 --> 00:07:52,590 the goal is, you know, okay, we'll give you some concessions and then you'll, 156 00:07:52,590 --> 00:07:55,320 you'll remove, you know, you know, some of these tariffs you're imposed. 157 00:07:55,320 --> 00:07:57,150 And then we say, you know, great, we made a deal. 158 00:07:57,150 --> 00:08:00,060 We have a, you know, stronger economic, um, economic ties between 159 00:08:00,060 --> 00:08:01,890 our countries and we go forward. 160 00:08:02,219 --> 00:08:05,880 But if that's not the situation, um. 161 00:08:06,645 --> 00:08:10,245 There's, there's not a lot, I mean, Japan's not gonna just accept, you 162 00:08:10,245 --> 00:08:16,935 know, 25% tariffs on, uh, its largest, its single largest, uh, category 163 00:08:16,935 --> 00:08:18,585 of exports to the United States. 164 00:08:18,645 --> 00:08:21,375 I mean, it's, it's, you know, that, that is just such a red line. 165 00:08:21,375 --> 00:08:24,165 And now of course, today, you know, Trump comes out and says that auto 166 00:08:24,165 --> 00:08:25,575 tariffs are gonna go even higher. 167 00:08:25,875 --> 00:08:30,375 Um, I mean, and, and, and I mean, I think that the important thing too, 168 00:08:30,375 --> 00:08:32,385 to note, and, and this is, I think. 169 00:08:33,419 --> 00:08:37,530 Something that I, I have been, uh, personally frustrated with watching 170 00:08:37,530 --> 00:08:41,010 the Trump administration do trade policy is that, uh, they either don't 171 00:08:41,189 --> 00:08:44,219 realize or don't care that other countries have domestic politics too. 172 00:08:44,640 --> 00:08:48,900 And so what we've seen over the course of these negotiations, uh, as you know, 173 00:08:48,900 --> 00:08:54,329 we've had successive rounds of usan talks, has been UBA saying, uh, you know, these 174 00:08:54,329 --> 00:08:56,339 auto tariffs are absolutely unacceptable. 175 00:08:56,609 --> 00:08:58,890 You know, you know, we cannot sign on to an agreement. 176 00:08:58,890 --> 00:09:00,540 Does that, does not, uh. 177 00:09:01,065 --> 00:09:04,845 I mean the, the, the demand has been eliminate, I think now they're 178 00:09:04,845 --> 00:09:07,515 now getting to a point where at least they have to be reduced. 179 00:09:07,935 --> 00:09:09,940 Um, but the point is that if, if. 180 00:09:10,575 --> 00:09:13,425 The Trump administration's not even willing to discuss them, and now 181 00:09:13,425 --> 00:09:16,455 they're talking about raising them even further, then there's no real 182 00:09:16,455 --> 00:09:20,565 basis for an agreement because frankly, an agreement that doesn't have some 183 00:09:20,655 --> 00:09:24,075 concessions from the US on automobile tariffs is not something that Japan 184 00:09:24,075 --> 00:09:25,185 is going to be able to sign onto. 185 00:09:25,185 --> 00:09:30,195 And it's certainly not something that, uh, Ishiba can sign onto, uh, without really, 186 00:09:30,375 --> 00:09:31,695 you know, paying a price domestically. 187 00:09:31,695 --> 00:09:35,715 And he has, he has positioned himself so that he can't, uh, sign on to that 188 00:09:35,715 --> 00:09:37,155 without paying some price domestically. 189 00:09:37,785 --> 00:09:38,295 Jacob Shapiro: Mm-hmm. 190 00:09:38,925 --> 00:09:39,375 Um. 191 00:09:39,765 --> 00:09:44,114 Do you think that this has done fundamental and even irrevocable 192 00:09:44,114 --> 00:09:46,094 damage to US Japan relations? 193 00:09:46,094 --> 00:09:50,625 And if so, what does that look like three years from now, five years from now? 194 00:09:50,625 --> 00:09:55,305 Or is Japan in the category of countries like Canada, which okay, like yes, it's 195 00:09:55,305 --> 00:09:58,994 rude and it's heavy handed and everything else, but you don't really have a choice 196 00:09:58,994 --> 00:10:02,295 but to go along because you're too exposed either from a trade perspective or a 197 00:10:02,295 --> 00:10:04,155 security perspective or, or anything else. 198 00:10:04,155 --> 00:10:05,594 So take that one however you want. 199 00:10:08,130 --> 00:10:10,319 Tobias Harris: Well, I mean, I guess maybe it's worth stepping 200 00:10:10,319 --> 00:10:13,890 back and saying for the moment that. 201 00:10:15,705 --> 00:10:18,915 You know, things did not start on Liberation Day, right? 202 00:10:18,915 --> 00:10:22,515 I mean, Japan was very frustrated with, with, I mean, even before 203 00:10:22,515 --> 00:10:25,274 Trump was elected with the politics of TPP in the United States. 204 00:10:25,335 --> 00:10:28,965 And the fact that, you know, okay, you, we negotiated this thing and you 205 00:10:28,965 --> 00:10:30,405 can't even get it through Congress. 206 00:10:30,465 --> 00:10:30,705 You know? 207 00:10:30,705 --> 00:10:35,145 So, you know, there's been frustration with rising protectionism in the 208 00:10:35,145 --> 00:10:37,095 United States now for, you know. 209 00:10:37,435 --> 00:10:41,965 At least a decade, you know, you know what exactly, you know, what exactly are 210 00:10:41,965 --> 00:10:46,015 you prepared to do has been the question I think from, uh, you know, from Japan 211 00:10:46,015 --> 00:10:47,305 as far as the United States concerned. 212 00:10:47,305 --> 00:10:51,505 So they've already been living in a world where, uh, the reliability of the 213 00:10:51,505 --> 00:10:55,765 United States, at least as an economic partner, uh, has been in serious doubt 214 00:10:55,765 --> 00:10:59,635 in Tokyo for a while, and they've already been thinking about how do we, uh. 215 00:11:00,510 --> 00:11:05,880 Design and protect a, you know, a rules-based international economic order, 216 00:11:06,240 --> 00:11:08,520 uh, on the basis of the United States. 217 00:11:08,550 --> 00:11:12,060 Is it best going to be, uh, an inconsistent partner? 218 00:11:12,390 --> 00:11:12,420 Uh. 219 00:11:13,349 --> 00:11:16,140 And, and you also, that was during the Biden years, right? 220 00:11:16,140 --> 00:11:18,180 Where, you know, I think there was a lot of frustration that on the one, 221 00:11:18,209 --> 00:11:20,339 you know, from one side of the mouth, they talked about French shoring. 222 00:11:20,729 --> 00:11:24,510 And now on the other side of the mouth you had, you know, Biden opposing, you 223 00:11:24,510 --> 00:11:25,949 know, DuPont Steel buying US steel. 224 00:11:25,949 --> 00:11:28,979 So, I mean, there's, you know, this, this, this is not just about Trump. 225 00:11:29,010 --> 00:11:31,859 This is not something that began, you know, in April. 226 00:11:31,859 --> 00:11:36,719 This is, you know, really, uh, a longer term, uh, disenchantment, uh, and 227 00:11:36,719 --> 00:11:41,189 frustration with the United States really stepping back and pulling back from, uh. 228 00:11:41,775 --> 00:11:46,125 Playing, you know, a, a, a rulemaking role both within Asia and also within 229 00:11:46,125 --> 00:11:48,015 the global, uh, the global economy. 230 00:11:48,015 --> 00:11:52,005 And so, uh, you know, Japan's already been thinking about its plan Bs on that front. 231 00:11:52,064 --> 00:11:56,865 You know, it's already, uh, viewed, uh, you know, brought TPP back to life. 232 00:11:57,194 --> 00:12:01,305 Um, as part of that effort, it has drawn closer to the EU as part of that effort. 233 00:12:01,694 --> 00:12:05,354 Uh, you know, deepening ties with various, um, you know, various 234 00:12:05,354 --> 00:12:09,165 countries in Southeast Asia, even, you know, viewing China as, um. 235 00:12:09,765 --> 00:12:14,205 Find, you know, finding a way to, uh, live with China and continue to have 236 00:12:14,205 --> 00:12:18,045 an economic relationship with China, you know, navigating US China frictions 237 00:12:18,045 --> 00:12:19,455 and the impact that has on Japan. 238 00:12:19,875 --> 00:12:23,715 And so Japan's already in this mindset of thinking about, okay, how do we, um. 239 00:12:24,074 --> 00:12:26,655 How do we navigate a world where the United States basically is 240 00:12:26,655 --> 00:12:30,495 sitting out a lot of, uh, efforts to integrate the global economy. 241 00:12:30,765 --> 00:12:32,055 So we're gonna see that continue. 242 00:12:32,145 --> 00:12:34,875 You know, there's already talk about how do you bring, uh, 243 00:12:35,115 --> 00:12:37,064 TPP and the EU closer together. 244 00:12:37,064 --> 00:12:40,035 So you're, you're almost creating this kind of advanced set 245 00:12:40,035 --> 00:12:42,015 of, of global economic rules. 246 00:12:42,345 --> 00:12:47,204 Um, kind of sidestepping the log jam at the WTO sidestepping, uh, 247 00:12:47,235 --> 00:12:48,465 you know, the US setting things out. 248 00:12:48,465 --> 00:12:49,665 So we're already seeing that. 249 00:12:50,115 --> 00:12:51,885 Um, the bigger. 250 00:12:52,605 --> 00:12:55,755 Question when it comes to the reliability of the United States is more on the 251 00:12:55,755 --> 00:13:01,425 security side and you know, do things, you know, do you see the kind of 252 00:13:01,425 --> 00:13:04,995 spillovers or do you see the kind of actions from the Trump administration 253 00:13:05,265 --> 00:13:12,045 where Japan really says, you know, we really don't feel like, you know, 254 00:13:12,105 --> 00:13:17,025 the US security guarantee, uh, is. 255 00:13:18,120 --> 00:13:21,900 Is, is viable, is alive, you know, you know, there's been things, you know, 256 00:13:21,900 --> 00:13:26,580 whether it's, you know, uh, actions undertaken, uh, or that could be 257 00:13:26,580 --> 00:13:29,220 undertaken by Trump or, uh, rhetoric. 258 00:13:29,220 --> 00:13:33,060 I mean, you know, and at this point, uh, you know, a lot of 259 00:13:33,060 --> 00:13:35,010 that now is, is speculative. 260 00:13:35,010 --> 00:13:36,150 It's been on the back burner. 261 00:13:36,150 --> 00:13:39,180 I mean, clearly, you know, trade is, is, uh, front of 262 00:13:39,180 --> 00:13:40,740 mind, and that's the main focus. 263 00:13:41,160 --> 00:13:41,370 Uh. 264 00:13:42,450 --> 00:13:48,660 But if there is reason down the road to really question, uh, the credibility of 265 00:13:48,690 --> 00:13:52,680 the US security guarantee, then you're really gonna see, uh, you know, real 266 00:13:52,680 --> 00:13:56,399 change in Japan's approach, you know, to its relationship in the United States. 267 00:13:56,790 --> 00:14:00,480 Uh, and, and really with it then it's approached the world. 268 00:14:00,540 --> 00:14:04,470 But for the moment, you know, it does seem that the trade issues 269 00:14:04,470 --> 00:14:07,020 are somewhat insulated from 270 00:14:07,020 --> 00:14:07,920 Jacob Shapiro: those broader questions. 271 00:14:09,585 --> 00:14:09,735 All right. 272 00:14:09,735 --> 00:14:12,075 Well, I'm gonna do the bane of, of all analysts existence. 273 00:14:12,075 --> 00:14:13,125 I know this 'cause I am one. 274 00:14:13,125 --> 00:14:14,865 I'm gonna ask you two different hypotheticals. 275 00:14:14,865 --> 00:14:20,175 The first is, um, okay, well let's say the United States hypothetically 276 00:14:20,655 --> 00:14:24,045 says we're not gonna defend Taiwan from China in the future. 277 00:14:24,045 --> 00:14:27,660 I. Like, what, what options does Japan have at that point? 278 00:14:27,660 --> 00:14:29,220 Or does that, does that not even matter to them? 279 00:14:29,220 --> 00:14:31,950 Does the hypothetical have to be that the United States says we're not gonna 280 00:14:31,950 --> 00:14:36,240 defend, uh, contested islands in the East China Sea or something like that, that 281 00:14:36,240 --> 00:14:38,040 are contested between Japan and China? 282 00:14:38,040 --> 00:14:41,400 Like, China can have those, like what, what happens in that scenario? 283 00:14:41,400 --> 00:14:43,200 Like what, what options does Japan have? 284 00:14:44,550 --> 00:14:48,450 Tobias Harris: Well, I mean, just to, to poke at that a little bit. 285 00:14:48,450 --> 00:14:52,110 I mean, I think the, I mean the Taiwan. 286 00:14:52,770 --> 00:14:58,170 The first part of the, the, the Taiwan, uh, issue in particular. 287 00:14:58,469 --> 00:15:01,829 I mean, presumably if that's part of some sort of grand bargain with China, 288 00:15:01,829 --> 00:15:04,920 I mean, presumably it's not gonna just be a unilateral declaration, but it's 289 00:15:04,920 --> 00:15:10,290 gonna be, you know, some sort of deal with Xi Jinping that says, you know, 290 00:15:10,290 --> 00:15:13,110 we're drawing, we're dividing up the world and it spheres of influence and 291 00:15:13,110 --> 00:15:14,730 Taiwan is on your side of the line. 292 00:15:14,730 --> 00:15:18,600 So, um, you know, so good luck. 293 00:15:18,719 --> 00:15:21,750 Um, the, you know, of course. 294 00:15:22,410 --> 00:15:28,620 You know, in theory, um, Japan's still not gonna say, okay, us go home. 295 00:15:28,620 --> 00:15:32,790 I mean, if, if, if part of that is, you know, the US is gonna keep bases in Japan 296 00:15:32,790 --> 00:15:36,480 and you know, like we're, you know, the line just happens to, you know, mm-hmm. 297 00:15:36,645 --> 00:15:39,780 Be, um, just east of Taiwan. 298 00:15:40,140 --> 00:15:40,589 Um. 299 00:15:41,220 --> 00:15:42,060 That's one thing. 300 00:15:42,060 --> 00:15:45,030 I mean, I think Japan will be very unhappy about that because, you know, 301 00:15:45,030 --> 00:15:48,600 the sort of, the geo, the geo strategist, you know, look at the map and they say, 302 00:15:48,600 --> 00:15:53,010 you know, if, if, um, you know, Taiwan is, you know, integrated into mainland 303 00:15:53,010 --> 00:15:59,699 China, um, you know, it gives, it just, I mean, is is a physical threat to Japan. 304 00:15:59,730 --> 00:16:03,510 Just, you know, where it mo you know, moving, uh, China's naval 305 00:16:03,569 --> 00:16:07,470 presence, you know, that much further east, you know, and, and having 306 00:16:07,470 --> 00:16:09,030 access to the Western Pacific. 307 00:16:09,449 --> 00:16:09,900 Um. 308 00:16:11,160 --> 00:16:14,760 That is just something that I think Japan is, is concerned about and, 309 00:16:15,150 --> 00:16:18,900 um, you know, so just, you know, from a sheer recognition of, uh, 310 00:16:19,109 --> 00:16:21,120 geography is, is concerned about. 311 00:16:21,479 --> 00:16:27,150 Um, but I mean, if it does mean grand bargain with China and therefore we 312 00:16:27,150 --> 00:16:30,390 don't even need our alliance system in Asia, then clearly that's, you 313 00:16:30,390 --> 00:16:33,329 know, that's a major wake up call and, and, and a crisis for Japan. 314 00:16:33,780 --> 00:16:36,239 Um, and it's not. 315 00:16:37,785 --> 00:16:41,594 You know, it's, it's uncomfortable for Japan because it's not something 316 00:16:41,685 --> 00:16:46,334 that, you know, if it happens without, with little warning, you 317 00:16:46,334 --> 00:16:47,954 know, you get sort of a Trump shock. 318 00:16:47,954 --> 00:16:51,675 You know, Nixon, Nixon in 1971, style shock. 319 00:16:51,734 --> 00:16:56,895 Then, um, you know, almost overnight, you know you're gonna get, um. 320 00:16:58,095 --> 00:17:01,935 You know, a feeling of panic in Tokyo, but maybe not a lot 321 00:17:01,935 --> 00:17:03,585 of good options and mm-hmm. 322 00:17:04,005 --> 00:17:07,845 You know, even for the discuss, you know, all the discussion about, you 323 00:17:07,845 --> 00:17:10,185 know, Japan is a latent nuclear power. 324 00:17:10,605 --> 00:17:13,875 Uh, you know, as soon as you start looking at the details of, in the 325 00:17:13,875 --> 00:17:18,495 complexity of that, you know, that is not something that, uh, you know, 326 00:17:18,525 --> 00:17:21,944 even, you know, you know, you hear sometimes like cavalier suggestions 327 00:17:21,944 --> 00:17:23,204 that it could be done in six months. 328 00:17:23,204 --> 00:17:24,135 I mean, um. 329 00:17:25,349 --> 00:17:29,820 I mean, it is not, uh, not something that can happen easily. 330 00:17:29,820 --> 00:17:31,200 And in the meantime, what happens? 331 00:17:31,560 --> 00:17:36,180 Um, you know, you know, when, you know during however many months it takes 332 00:17:36,180 --> 00:17:38,460 to, to have your own nuclear deterrent. 333 00:17:38,550 --> 00:17:41,970 Um, you know, what sort of, what sort of coercion are you vulnerable to? 334 00:17:41,970 --> 00:17:46,650 So, um, you know, it's, it's such a, a. 335 00:17:47,490 --> 00:17:51,510 Drastic hypothetical that it's really hard, you know, it's really hard to know. 336 00:17:51,510 --> 00:17:53,100 How does the Japanese public respond? 337 00:17:53,100 --> 00:17:54,600 How do Japanese elites respond? 338 00:17:54,960 --> 00:17:59,010 I mean it's, you know, certainly from the moment it's very hard to imagine, 339 00:17:59,760 --> 00:18:03,510 you know, Japan wanting to reach some sort of accommodation with China or 340 00:18:03,780 --> 00:18:05,159 some sort of, you know, finlandization. 341 00:18:06,240 --> 00:18:09,420 You know, like, will, you know, you leave us alone and you know, 342 00:18:09,420 --> 00:18:10,889 we won't make any trouble for you. 343 00:18:11,250 --> 00:18:13,139 Um, in foreign policy. 344 00:18:13,139 --> 00:18:13,920 I mean, that's. 345 00:18:14,625 --> 00:18:16,155 That's also hard to imagine. 346 00:18:16,575 --> 00:18:22,935 Um, but, you know, in a, in a shock situation, United States 347 00:18:22,935 --> 00:18:27,645 decides that it's, it's pulling out, um, a lot of things that seem 348 00:18:27,645 --> 00:18:29,355 unthinkable now could become possible. 349 00:18:29,655 --> 00:18:32,865 And, you know, there certainly will be people domestically in 350 00:18:32,865 --> 00:18:38,985 Japan arguing, uh, you know, you know, do we wanna really, um. 351 00:18:40,485 --> 00:18:43,875 You know, lift, you pick up the sword essentially that the US would be dropping 352 00:18:43,875 --> 00:18:48,135 down and, and you know, that that's gonna be a really tough, uh, debate domestically 353 00:18:48,135 --> 00:18:48,585 Jacob Shapiro: in Japan. 354 00:18:49,305 --> 00:18:49,515 Hmm. 355 00:18:50,235 --> 00:18:50,385 All right. 356 00:18:50,385 --> 00:18:54,105 Well, second hypothetical, uh, Shinzo Abe and Donald Trump 357 00:18:54,105 --> 00:18:55,635 had a very close relationship. 358 00:18:55,635 --> 00:18:57,255 Donald Trump thought very highly of him. 359 00:18:57,615 --> 00:19:02,025 If he's still alive, does this look diff completely different or do you think that 360 00:19:02,025 --> 00:19:05,655 the way that Japan, US relations have played out here in the first six months 361 00:19:05,655 --> 00:19:07,155 of the Trump administration would be. 362 00:19:07,695 --> 00:19:10,304 Fundamentally different if he had not been assassinated. 363 00:19:12,044 --> 00:19:15,345 Tobias Harris: It's, you know, it's a question I've, I've, you know, obviously 364 00:19:15,345 --> 00:19:20,235 thought a lot about, uh, over the last, you know, three or six months, 365 00:19:20,325 --> 00:19:26,264 um, you know, I tend to be skeptical though, or at least tend to caution 366 00:19:26,294 --> 00:19:29,355 people not to have an a rose colored. 367 00:19:30,315 --> 00:19:35,385 Spectacles when it comes to looking back to Trump won, where I think there 368 00:19:35,385 --> 00:19:41,595 was a period of time where, uh, you know, Trump Abe's investments in a 369 00:19:41,595 --> 00:19:43,605 relationship with Trump, paid dividends. 370 00:19:43,605 --> 00:19:48,195 You know, the fact that he went to meet him right after, uh, right after 371 00:19:48,225 --> 00:19:51,105 he was elected, when, you know, no one else really knew what to do. 372 00:19:51,105 --> 00:19:53,385 And, you know, Abe got on a plane and went very quickly and 373 00:19:53,385 --> 00:19:54,465 met with him at Trump Tower. 374 00:19:54,885 --> 00:19:57,045 Um, you know, that I think won him a lot of credit. 375 00:19:57,105 --> 00:19:58,455 You know, they, uh. 376 00:19:59,280 --> 00:20:02,520 Early visit to Mar-a-Lago after inauguration I think 377 00:20:02,520 --> 00:20:03,449 got him a lot of credit. 378 00:20:03,449 --> 00:20:12,179 And so, um, that in some ways maybe, uh, certainly delayed some things. 379 00:20:12,179 --> 00:20:13,649 It certainly may be avoided. 380 00:20:14,100 --> 00:20:14,220 Uh. 381 00:20:15,419 --> 00:20:19,260 More severe outcomes, but I, I, I would argue that you really 382 00:20:19,260 --> 00:20:22,020 got diminishing returns from that personal relationship as well. 383 00:20:22,080 --> 00:20:28,439 That by, you know, 2018 when Trump starts, uh, talking with North Korea, you know, 384 00:20:28,439 --> 00:20:32,310 you get Abe calling up Trump constantly, you know, please don't forget Japan. 385 00:20:32,340 --> 00:20:33,419 Please don't forget Japan. 386 00:20:33,810 --> 00:20:37,709 Um, and I don't think that worked with Trump personally. 387 00:20:38,070 --> 00:20:44,010 I think to the extent that Trump's or that Abe's sort of efforts to, um. 388 00:20:45,015 --> 00:20:49,515 Kind of prevent a bad deal with North Korea that would harm Japan. 389 00:20:49,875 --> 00:20:52,755 Uh, I, I think he had help inside the Trump administration. 390 00:20:52,905 --> 00:20:55,185 Uh, you know, I think there's, you know, been reporting about, you know, 391 00:20:55,185 --> 00:21:01,335 John Bolton basically, um, working with Abe to, to help, um, prevent, uh, you 392 00:21:01,335 --> 00:21:05,535 know, a, a deal that would basically let North Korea, uh, keep it to nuclear 393 00:21:05,535 --> 00:21:09,915 weapons and basically get, you know, uh, you know, a, like a steal of approval 394 00:21:09,915 --> 00:21:11,595 for its, you know, for its arsenal. 395 00:21:12,015 --> 00:21:12,615 Um, mm-hmm. 396 00:21:13,845 --> 00:21:17,264 You know, if that hap, you know, if you saw similar talks happen 397 00:21:17,264 --> 00:21:19,365 now, would would it look like that? 398 00:21:19,365 --> 00:21:20,145 Probably not. 399 00:21:20,445 --> 00:21:25,455 Um, even with Abe around and, you know, also, you know, Abe, you know, 400 00:21:25,455 --> 00:21:29,324 really, you know, was not eager to get into a situation of doing us Japan, 401 00:21:29,715 --> 00:21:31,125 you know, by an federal trade talks. 402 00:21:31,155 --> 00:21:34,185 And, you know, Trump threatens automobile tariffs and what happens, 403 00:21:34,185 --> 00:21:35,475 Japan has to come to the table. 404 00:21:35,475 --> 00:21:36,824 So, um. 405 00:21:37,350 --> 00:21:42,540 Things weren't always as, uh, pleasant and cheerful, uh, and 406 00:21:42,540 --> 00:21:44,669 and friendly as people remember. 407 00:21:45,060 --> 00:21:48,090 Um, you know, and, and Trump, of course, is perfectly capable of 408 00:21:48,090 --> 00:21:51,540 talk, you know, like is happy to talk about how much he likes this place 409 00:21:51,540 --> 00:21:53,010 or is friendly towards that place. 410 00:21:53,399 --> 00:21:56,580 Um, but then we'll turn around and, and, you know. 411 00:21:56,925 --> 00:21:58,425 Slap tariffs on a country, right? 412 00:21:58,425 --> 00:22:00,915 I mean, you know, right before Liberation Day, what was it? 413 00:22:00,915 --> 00:22:04,185 Israel was saying, you know, we'll take all US tariffs, you know, all US codes, 414 00:22:04,545 --> 00:22:06,014 you know, due to free and did it matter? 415 00:22:06,014 --> 00:22:06,885 No, it didn't matter. 416 00:22:06,885 --> 00:22:13,185 And um, you know, so there's clearly a limit, you know, to 417 00:22:13,185 --> 00:22:15,375 how far personal diplomacy. 418 00:22:16,260 --> 00:22:20,550 What would Trump even during the first term, and clearly I think during this 419 00:22:20,550 --> 00:22:23,460 term, you know, he feels more confident. 420 00:22:23,460 --> 00:22:26,220 You know, he won the popular vote last year, feels stronger. 421 00:22:26,220 --> 00:22:27,390 He's been there before. 422 00:22:27,390 --> 00:22:33,360 You know that this is not, um, you know, he's not as, I think, susceptible 423 00:22:33,360 --> 00:22:38,760 to flattery maybe as he once was or, or certainly, um, also maybe 424 00:22:38,760 --> 00:22:41,085 is wier and is, is willing to let. 425 00:22:42,090 --> 00:22:45,870 Those engaging in flattery, think they're, they're getting something from him. 426 00:22:45,870 --> 00:22:50,790 And, um, you know, ultimately, you know, he, you know, is happy to let 427 00:22:50,790 --> 00:22:55,650 them think that, but is ultimately not giving up anything, um, in return. 428 00:22:55,710 --> 00:22:57,870 So, I, I'm, I am not. 429 00:22:59,669 --> 00:23:02,820 Necessarily convinced that things would look different. 430 00:23:02,970 --> 00:23:03,179 Right. 431 00:23:03,179 --> 00:23:06,179 You know, that would, would the Liberation Day tariff, would, would 432 00:23:06,419 --> 00:23:09,959 Abe have been able to convince Trump to exempt Japan from those? 433 00:23:09,959 --> 00:23:11,100 I don't, I don't think so. 434 00:23:11,520 --> 00:23:16,169 Um, would the kind of, you know, would Abe have been able to, um, 435 00:23:18,689 --> 00:23:21,510 kind of navigate, you know, the, the internal divisions, you 436 00:23:21,510 --> 00:23:24,899 know, on trade that we've talked about, um, in this conversation? 437 00:23:25,409 --> 00:23:26,490 Not necessarily. 438 00:23:26,490 --> 00:23:27,899 I mean, um. 439 00:23:28,650 --> 00:23:33,630 You know, the people within, um, you know, the, the Navarros and the Latinxs. 440 00:23:33,660 --> 00:23:39,510 I mean, you know, would Abe be able to, um, kind of, you know, lean on 441 00:23:39,510 --> 00:23:44,940 the scale so that, um, kind of they're overpowered and, and have to kind of 442 00:23:44,940 --> 00:23:49,290 make a, make up friendlier deal with Japan just because, you know, Abe, um, 443 00:23:50,280 --> 00:23:51,870 could get Trump on the phone easily. 444 00:23:51,870 --> 00:23:54,540 I, I'm not convinced, I, I'm really not convinced. 445 00:23:54,540 --> 00:23:56,310 Things seem just very different this time around. 446 00:23:57,570 --> 00:24:00,450 Jacob Shapiro: Yeah, I mean, the recent Musk, uh, Trump drama shows you how 447 00:24:00,450 --> 00:24:03,690 quickly some of these things can change no matter how much, uh, Trump seems 448 00:24:03,690 --> 00:24:05,250 to be having to bromance with someone. 449 00:24:05,460 --> 00:24:10,050 Um, which I think, I think the, the, the Trump Abe things felt a little bromance. 450 00:24:10,560 --> 00:24:10,710 All right. 451 00:24:10,710 --> 00:24:13,139 Let, let's move away from, uh, the United States. 452 00:24:13,140 --> 00:24:16,200 Let's talk a little bit of about, um, Japanese relations with China. 453 00:24:16,830 --> 00:24:21,240 Um, in late December, you had Japan's foreign minister visit China. 454 00:24:21,360 --> 00:24:22,560 A couple interesting meetings. 455 00:24:22,560 --> 00:24:24,480 Also met China's foreign minister. 456 00:24:24,750 --> 00:24:25,290 You had. 457 00:24:25,965 --> 00:24:30,255 Some follow up in March about, you know, consensus points and pledging 458 00:24:30,255 --> 00:24:33,345 economic co collaboration and things like that at the same time. 459 00:24:33,345 --> 00:24:35,595 I mean, if you look just at, uh, I looked at the South China 460 00:24:35,595 --> 00:24:36,525 morning post this morning. 461 00:24:36,735 --> 00:24:40,065 China's military saying Japan is breaching its pacifist constitution 462 00:24:40,065 --> 00:24:41,235 with long range missile tests. 463 00:24:41,235 --> 00:24:42,705 So it's not like everything is perfect. 464 00:24:43,155 --> 00:24:43,755 Um. 465 00:24:44,050 --> 00:24:47,230 You also, I mean, I don't know if these reports were ever confirmed, but about, 466 00:24:47,230 --> 00:24:50,800 you know, South Korea, Japan and China coordinating some kind of response 467 00:24:50,800 --> 00:24:55,690 to us tariffs like that was sort of denied by one side, maybe by one side. 468 00:24:55,690 --> 00:24:58,120 And no, this has, you know, sort of all over the place there. 469 00:24:58,120 --> 00:25:01,419 So where, where do us, uh, excuse me, where do Japan China relations 470 00:25:01,419 --> 00:25:02,530 stand from your point of view? 471 00:25:02,530 --> 00:25:03,370 Have they gotten better? 472 00:25:03,370 --> 00:25:05,470 Is it basically still the same? 473 00:25:05,470 --> 00:25:06,399 Are they in flux? 474 00:25:06,399 --> 00:25:07,210 Like where, where are they? 475 00:25:08,290 --> 00:25:08,710 Um, 476 00:25:09,340 --> 00:25:13,419 Tobias Harris: that, when, when everyone kind of freaked out about the, uh, that. 477 00:25:13,770 --> 00:25:18,510 Japan, China, South Korea, based on, you know, Chinese state media reporting. 478 00:25:18,720 --> 00:25:21,330 I mean, that was, that was really ridiculous. 479 00:25:21,330 --> 00:25:25,890 But, um, anyway, it's, you know, this, this predates Trump. 480 00:25:25,890 --> 00:25:30,180 I mean, you really have had efforts, uh, really going back a year now 481 00:25:30,180 --> 00:25:34,950 by the Japanese government, uh, to try to repair some of the damage. 482 00:25:35,100 --> 00:25:38,575 Um, you know, things were, uh. 483 00:25:39,615 --> 00:25:41,625 You know, it's, it's been this rollercoaster, right? 484 00:25:41,625 --> 00:25:44,985 You know, under second Abe things started out really poorly and, you 485 00:25:44,985 --> 00:25:49,574 know, out of military tensions and wars of words and battles over history. 486 00:25:50,054 --> 00:25:56,715 Uh, and then by, you know, by 20 16, 20 17, not coincidentally after, after Trump 487 00:25:56,715 --> 00:26:01,485 takes office, I mean, you did have, uh, Abe really investing in trying to improve 488 00:26:01,485 --> 00:26:03,135 the economic relationship with China. 489 00:26:03,584 --> 00:26:03,915 Uh. 490 00:26:04,544 --> 00:26:07,365 You know, get on the same page, find opportunities for cooperation. 491 00:26:07,875 --> 00:26:12,195 And, you know, to the point where the, you know, in 2020 had COVID not happened, 492 00:26:12,195 --> 00:26:16,274 Xi Jinping was supposed to visit, you know, to, to visit Japan on a state visit. 493 00:26:16,304 --> 00:26:20,355 So that, you know, that was sort of where things were. 494 00:26:20,355 --> 00:26:25,635 And then COVID happened and, you know, trying to, uh, you know, 495 00:26:25,814 --> 00:26:27,344 what came down heavy on Hong Kong. 496 00:26:27,350 --> 00:26:31,425 And, and there's a real backlash to that in, uh, in Japan. 497 00:26:31,905 --> 00:26:33,405 And that really, um. 498 00:26:34,215 --> 00:26:39,615 Sour things, and you know, you've had worse, you know, trade friction with, 499 00:26:40,155 --> 00:26:43,034 uh, with the United States and, you know, the Biden administration's approach 500 00:26:43,034 --> 00:26:45,495 and, and Japan tagging along with that. 501 00:26:45,885 --> 00:26:52,274 And so, I mean, so you, I mean, you've just had this, um, decline now for the 502 00:26:52,274 --> 00:26:54,284 last five, you know, four or five years. 503 00:26:54,314 --> 00:26:59,415 And now they're at this point now of, okay, how do we undo some of that damage? 504 00:26:59,504 --> 00:27:02,445 Which, you know, not only is it, you know, you know. 505 00:27:03,780 --> 00:27:09,510 You know, this export control and, and, you know, you know, foregoing this, uh, 506 00:27:09,840 --> 00:27:14,850 this visit and announcing this military, you know, exercise with this country. 507 00:27:14,850 --> 00:27:17,160 You know, just like the series of, uh. 508 00:27:17,745 --> 00:27:20,895 Steps that really have, um, heightened tensions. 509 00:27:20,895 --> 00:27:25,334 I mean, it's also just trying to restore, uh, channels of communication. 510 00:27:25,395 --> 00:27:28,034 I mean, that, that really is, I think the, the most important thing 511 00:27:28,034 --> 00:27:29,175 we've seen over the last year. 512 00:27:29,175 --> 00:27:34,169 It's been less about, you know, tangible improvement, um, which has 513 00:27:34,169 --> 00:27:39,850 been very halting and has been more about, you know, how do you get, uh. 514 00:27:40,830 --> 00:27:44,820 You know, getting Japanese political leaders back to China, you know, who used 515 00:27:44,820 --> 00:27:48,450 to have these kinda regular delegations going over and, and having communication. 516 00:27:48,450 --> 00:27:50,280 How do you get business delegations going back? 517 00:27:50,580 --> 00:27:54,150 How do you then have, uh, you know, communist party officials coming on, 518 00:27:54,150 --> 00:27:57,900 on visits to Japan, Chinese government officials back to Japan, um, just 519 00:27:57,900 --> 00:27:59,760 restarting some of these exchanges. 520 00:28:00,150 --> 00:28:02,400 So, you know, the exchange of views are there. 521 00:28:02,400 --> 00:28:06,825 And I mean, and that really, I. I think that that has been 522 00:28:06,825 --> 00:28:07,785 the most important thing. 523 00:28:07,875 --> 00:28:11,264 You know, really going back to basically roughly September of last year, 524 00:28:11,565 --> 00:28:13,395 you've now had a series of exchanges. 525 00:28:13,395 --> 00:28:15,075 Things seem much more routinized. 526 00:28:15,495 --> 00:28:18,375 Um, you know, the communication is happening. 527 00:28:18,735 --> 00:28:24,885 Um, even if, uh, you know, just getting over some of the, the real challenges 528 00:28:24,885 --> 00:28:26,655 is, is proving very difficult. 529 00:28:26,985 --> 00:28:28,305 They're at least talking to each other. 530 00:28:31,094 --> 00:28:35,115 Jacob Shapiro: Um, well let, let's sort of stay in the same vein, um, and say, 531 00:28:35,175 --> 00:28:38,834 um, also there's been a big election in South Korea over the last couple of weeks. 532 00:28:38,834 --> 00:28:39,284 We've got. 533 00:28:40,035 --> 00:28:41,745 Uh, is progressive too strong? 534 00:28:41,745 --> 00:28:44,895 I mean, you've got a South Korean leader now who you would think is 535 00:28:44,895 --> 00:28:49,155 gonna maybe revamp some of the previous South Korean administration's approach. 536 00:28:49,155 --> 00:28:52,605 So that administration basically tried to put to bed conflict with Japan, tried 537 00:28:52,605 --> 00:28:56,775 to deepen, uh, relations with both the United States and Japan, TR laterally. 538 00:28:57,135 --> 00:28:58,365 Um, uh, I think. 539 00:28:58,515 --> 00:29:00,795 I think President Biden, one of the things he got the least amount of 540 00:29:00,795 --> 00:29:03,945 credit for was the way that he really ironed out some of those disagreements 541 00:29:03,945 --> 00:29:05,235 between Japan and South Korea. 542 00:29:05,235 --> 00:29:07,455 Now, he had a favorable South Korean government to do it, but 543 00:29:07,455 --> 00:29:08,715 hey, he knew it was an issue. 544 00:29:08,715 --> 00:29:09,285 He tried. 545 00:29:09,285 --> 00:29:12,135 It was sort of a major, I think, a major success story for him. 546 00:29:12,525 --> 00:29:13,725 Does all that go away? 547 00:29:13,725 --> 00:29:16,605 Early returns from the South Korean government suggest that, 548 00:29:16,695 --> 00:29:19,755 uh, maybe a little more pragmatic than the progressive label looks. 549 00:29:19,755 --> 00:29:24,495 Maybe they want to continue to deepen or at least keep relations with Japan, um, 550 00:29:24,495 --> 00:29:26,625 and with the United States fairly good. 551 00:29:26,625 --> 00:29:27,735 Do you see any imminent. 552 00:29:27,920 --> 00:29:28,639 Change there. 553 00:29:28,639 --> 00:29:31,534 I mean, there's been also some things about maybe South Korea and North 554 00:29:31,534 --> 00:29:33,770 Korea relaxing things a little bit. 555 00:29:33,770 --> 00:29:37,820 And you can imagine if we return to Fire and Fury and Rocket Man, we'll put 556 00:29:37,820 --> 00:29:41,629 that, we'll put that VHS back in and start replaying some of the Trump won, 557 00:29:42,020 --> 00:29:44,150 um, episodes from that sort of thing. 558 00:29:44,150 --> 00:29:47,090 So, and any, is this a source of optimism for Japan? 559 00:29:47,090 --> 00:29:50,090 Is this a Oh no, not this too, like the sky is falling. 560 00:29:50,090 --> 00:29:51,260 Is it somewhere in between? 561 00:29:51,889 --> 00:29:52,940 Um, how do we think about it? 562 00:29:56,985 --> 00:29:57,615 Tobias Harris: For the moment. 563 00:29:57,615 --> 00:30:01,905 I mean, president Lee has, uh, been saying the right things and on the 564 00:30:01,905 --> 00:30:07,965 campaign trail, you know, was saying the right things and, um, you know, but in 565 00:30:07,965 --> 00:30:17,084 general, when you have, um, you know, a, you know, in, in some ways, in some 566 00:30:17,084 --> 00:30:22,754 ways, I mean, the situ, it's not quite like, you know, when Moon, uh, uh, moon 567 00:30:22,754 --> 00:30:24,225 Jian was president, but the last time. 568 00:30:25,034 --> 00:30:26,475 Progressive Korean president, right? 569 00:30:26,475 --> 00:30:31,065 Because then you had a progressive Korean president and a pretty right wing Japanese 570 00:30:31,065 --> 00:30:33,615 Prime Minister in Prime Minister Abe. 571 00:30:33,615 --> 00:30:38,655 And, um, the, you know, this, you essentially got this sort 572 00:30:38,655 --> 00:30:41,895 of escalatory spiral on history issues as a result of that. 573 00:30:42,315 --> 00:30:48,405 Um, you know, in part because you had, um, kind of the, the, the 574 00:30:48,465 --> 00:30:51,794 each, each leader's domestic base was essentially pushing them. 575 00:30:52,185 --> 00:30:52,635 Um. 576 00:30:53,685 --> 00:30:56,264 Yeah, away from, you know, the pushing the two countries apart. 577 00:30:56,445 --> 00:31:02,445 And so the question is, um, you know, circumstances are a little different 578 00:31:02,445 --> 00:31:07,574 now, and in part also 'cause I think, you know, views in, in, uh, South Korea 579 00:31:08,145 --> 00:31:14,295 have changed, maybe even less about Japan and more about, you know, fears of 580 00:31:14,295 --> 00:31:16,095 China I think are pretty well ingrained. 581 00:31:16,305 --> 00:31:19,274 Um, you know, I think one of the things that, uh. 582 00:31:20,295 --> 00:31:24,284 Japanese, uh, elites and particularly, you know, more right wing Japanese 583 00:31:24,284 --> 00:31:27,945 elites have been convinced of is, you know, China, you know, South Korea, 584 00:31:28,004 --> 00:31:29,415 you know, they're too close to China. 585 00:31:29,805 --> 00:31:32,325 Uh, they're not reli, they're not a reliable partner when it 586 00:31:32,325 --> 00:31:34,875 comes to security in the region. 587 00:31:35,264 --> 00:31:38,235 You know, we can't trust them, and so therefore it's not worth investing 588 00:31:38,235 --> 00:31:41,235 any, you know, real effort in trying to get along with them anyway. 589 00:31:41,685 --> 00:31:42,225 And. 590 00:31:43,035 --> 00:31:46,485 I think the mood in Tokyo maybe has changed a little bit on that. 591 00:31:46,485 --> 00:31:49,455 There's a little more willingness to see that okay, maybe the South Korean 592 00:31:49,545 --> 00:31:53,955 people as a whole are, you know, are, you know, skeptical of China. 593 00:31:53,955 --> 00:31:57,885 They are, you know, that there is the material for uh, kind of broader 594 00:31:57,885 --> 00:32:01,185 security cooperation, um, on that. 595 00:32:01,755 --> 00:32:02,325 Um. 596 00:32:03,495 --> 00:32:07,155 So that might be in the backdrop of, of the kind of new tone that we've 597 00:32:07,155 --> 00:32:08,715 heard from, from President Lee. 598 00:32:09,045 --> 00:32:11,925 I mean, the, the question, you know, in all of this is, I mean, it's easy 599 00:32:11,925 --> 00:32:13,185 to say it on the campaign trail. 600 00:32:13,185 --> 00:32:16,995 It's easy to say it now after you've been, you know, elected and inaugurated. 601 00:32:17,355 --> 00:32:21,555 Uh, the question is, when, when something happens, the test, the 602 00:32:21,555 --> 00:32:25,245 relationship, what that, you know, do you grandstand for your, for 603 00:32:25,245 --> 00:32:27,765 your core supporters or, you know. 604 00:32:28,620 --> 00:32:30,060 Do you do shuttle diplomacy? 605 00:32:30,389 --> 00:32:33,870 You know, and try to, you know, try to get to a situation where cooler 606 00:32:33,870 --> 00:32:37,350 heads can prevail and you can say the relationship is bigger than this. 607 00:32:37,709 --> 00:32:42,030 You know, we have to, you know, we can't let, um, you know, sort of, uh, 608 00:32:42,060 --> 00:32:45,659 you know, a legal case about history, you know, something historical or, you 609 00:32:45,659 --> 00:32:50,459 know, historical claims, uh, derail, you know, cooperation about other issues 610 00:32:50,459 --> 00:32:55,320 or, you know, more kind of tangible future looking, uh, cooperation and. 611 00:32:56,490 --> 00:33:00,210 You know, it's, you know, until we actually see something like that 612 00:33:00,210 --> 00:33:04,530 happen, um, that remains to be seen. 613 00:33:04,560 --> 00:33:13,080 I mean, in some ways it's not bad that, um, um, prime Minister Ishiba, 614 00:33:13,470 --> 00:33:19,950 uh, is in power in that, you know, he is a, he is, you know, in a Japan. 615 00:33:20,595 --> 00:33:24,525 Context on, you know, as far as relations with Korea go, I mean, 616 00:33:24,525 --> 00:33:26,715 he's relatively progressive about it. 617 00:33:26,745 --> 00:33:33,645 I mean, he's been, um, you know, he has called for much more reckoning by Japanese 618 00:33:33,645 --> 00:33:36,405 with what Japan actually did in Korea. 619 00:33:36,795 --> 00:33:40,755 Um, you know, it's something that makes him not particularly especially popular 620 00:33:40,815 --> 00:33:42,555 with the, the right wing of his own party. 621 00:33:42,945 --> 00:33:46,215 Um, you know, it'll be interesting to see, you know, this is of 622 00:33:46,215 --> 00:33:48,675 course a big, um, anniversary year. 623 00:33:49,095 --> 00:33:49,545 Um. 624 00:33:49,919 --> 00:33:58,409 Both, uh, for the, um, you being the, uh, uh, 60th anniversary of normalization 625 00:33:58,409 --> 00:34:01,709 or establishment of diplomatic relations between Japan and South Korea. 626 00:34:01,739 --> 00:34:06,540 Of course, it's also the, um, the 80th anniversary of the end of World War ii, 627 00:34:06,629 --> 00:34:10,319 and, and Yeshiva has made noise about wanting to put out some sort of statement. 628 00:34:10,319 --> 00:34:13,889 It's not clear what sort of legal status that statement will have. 629 00:34:13,889 --> 00:34:18,029 I mean, and there's debate, you know, con, that's been a pretty, uh. 630 00:34:18,735 --> 00:34:22,214 Length debate, uh, in Japan about what kind of statement 631 00:34:22,214 --> 00:34:23,505 Ishiba will be able to make. 632 00:34:23,505 --> 00:34:26,924 But, um, you know, there's some opportunity there for, you know, 633 00:34:26,924 --> 00:34:31,875 a prime minister like Ishiba to maybe, um, say some things on these 634 00:34:31,875 --> 00:34:38,235 occasions that, you know, um, to maybe disarm some South Korean, uh, 635 00:34:38,295 --> 00:34:40,335 skepticism or hostility towards Japan. 636 00:34:40,335 --> 00:34:44,685 You know, having a, a prime minister say that, um, I mean the, the problem. 637 00:34:45,105 --> 00:34:52,964 Um, Farba of course, is that as long as his, uh, political situation is a little 638 00:34:52,964 --> 00:34:58,634 weak, um, he may be limited in what he can say for fear of backlash from his right. 639 00:34:58,785 --> 00:35:01,125 And so, so that's something to consider. 640 00:35:01,125 --> 00:35:04,605 I mean, and, and, you know, he might be the right person, but is not 641 00:35:05,205 --> 00:35:08,505 necessarily in a position where he can just say whatever he wants with, 642 00:35:08,505 --> 00:35:10,470 you know, without fearing for, uh. 643 00:35:11,190 --> 00:35:13,380 Political, you know, political consequences. 644 00:35:13,380 --> 00:35:19,620 So, um, you know, maybe, and maybe ultimately for the long-term stability 645 00:35:19,620 --> 00:35:22,500 of the bio relationship, the best thing would've been if, if someone like 646 00:35:22,950 --> 00:35:28,710 Abe could have, um, made some sort of more kind of deeper heartfelt gesture 647 00:35:29,160 --> 00:35:31,230 with a Korean progressive in power. 648 00:35:31,650 --> 00:35:37,530 Um, and that might have maybe resulted in, in some sort of more durable, uh. 649 00:35:38,234 --> 00:35:39,165 Kind of settlement. 650 00:35:39,314 --> 00:35:43,694 But, um, you know, so the potential for friction is there, you know, 651 00:35:43,754 --> 00:35:49,665 even with, uh, with me saying the right things, um, there's, you know, 652 00:35:49,665 --> 00:35:52,274 there's still, you know, there's still plenty of hostility in both 653 00:35:52,274 --> 00:35:55,154 countries, uh, waiting to be inflamed. 654 00:35:55,395 --> 00:35:59,774 Um, so yeah, it's, that's really the thing to watch for, 655 00:35:59,774 --> 00:36:02,325 you know, is, is there a, uh. 656 00:36:03,615 --> 00:36:07,155 You know, a catalyst at some point that really undoes some 657 00:36:07,155 --> 00:36:08,020 of the work that we've seen. 658 00:36:09,029 --> 00:36:09,149 Hmm. 659 00:36:10,410 --> 00:36:13,169 Jacob Shapiro: That's, that's, uh, cautiously hopeful. 660 00:36:13,200 --> 00:36:17,459 Uh, if I'm, if I'm reading your tone correctly, um, let's, let's pivot 661 00:36:17,459 --> 00:36:21,810 a little bit now to, to Japanese domestic politics, um, at your advice. 662 00:36:21,870 --> 00:36:25,140 Uh, I started, I'm slowly working my way through the nobility 663 00:36:25,140 --> 00:36:27,149 of failure by Ivan Morris. 664 00:36:27,180 --> 00:36:28,200 Uh, loving it, by the way. 665 00:36:28,200 --> 00:36:30,450 And the last time we talked, you mentioned that maybe, uh. 666 00:36:31,255 --> 00:36:35,245 Ishiba would, would be, would be a chapter in this book in the future. 667 00:36:35,665 --> 00:36:39,115 Uh, and things weren't, did not seem to be going particularly well at the beginning. 668 00:36:39,115 --> 00:36:41,845 We could talk about rice prices, we could talk about terrible approval 669 00:36:41,845 --> 00:36:46,615 ratings, potential votes of no confidence, but he seems to have turned 670 00:36:46,615 --> 00:36:50,185 the ship around a little bit, like his approval ratings starting to inch up. 671 00:36:50,185 --> 00:36:53,360 You've got some pretty good pushes on, on trying to lower rise. 672 00:36:53,900 --> 00:36:56,690 You've got some deals with the opposition about pension reform. 673 00:36:56,690 --> 00:36:58,640 So where, where are you at with Yeshiva? 674 00:36:58,640 --> 00:37:02,120 Do you think it's fundamentally the deck is stacked against him? 675 00:37:02,120 --> 00:37:03,530 Is he turning it around? 676 00:37:03,530 --> 00:37:05,240 Is he still gonna be the tragic hero? 677 00:37:05,240 --> 00:37:07,370 Like how are we feeling a couple months in? 678 00:37:08,390 --> 00:37:09,830 Um, yeah, 679 00:37:09,830 --> 00:37:14,750 Tobias Harris: it's, um, you know, things really have changed week to 680 00:37:14,750 --> 00:37:17,420 week, you know, that there've been moments, you know, in the last few 681 00:37:17,420 --> 00:37:19,130 months where things were looking better. 682 00:37:19,610 --> 00:37:19,670 Um. 683 00:37:21,360 --> 00:37:24,630 Then, you know, just when things start looking up, that's when the rug 684 00:37:24,630 --> 00:37:26,010 seems to get pulled out under him. 685 00:37:26,010 --> 00:37:32,670 So we'll see if, if this is really a, uh, a true, uh, new beginning for him or if 686 00:37:32,670 --> 00:37:34,920 it's just a, you know, another false dawn. 687 00:37:35,040 --> 00:37:40,245 Um, but I. The, you know, the story really for Ishiba. 688 00:37:40,245 --> 00:37:44,384 I mean, his, you know, his premiership now has been, you know, fundamentally 689 00:37:44,384 --> 00:37:47,325 shaped by the fact that he is at the head of a minority government 690 00:37:47,625 --> 00:37:50,024 and everything has to be negotiated. 691 00:37:50,415 --> 00:37:51,855 Uh, every, you know. 692 00:37:52,215 --> 00:37:55,605 Everything requires, you know, consulting with multiple opposition 693 00:37:55,605 --> 00:37:58,695 parties, trying to convince at least one of them to support something 694 00:37:58,695 --> 00:37:59,925 that his government wants to do. 695 00:38:00,375 --> 00:38:03,255 And predictably what that has done has forced him to scale 696 00:38:03,255 --> 00:38:04,815 back, back his ambitions. 697 00:38:04,815 --> 00:38:09,225 And, you know, the criticism, you know, you know, even, and especially from 698 00:38:09,225 --> 00:38:12,945 within the LDP has been, well, you know, we don't know what he wants to do. 699 00:38:13,095 --> 00:38:17,235 You know, he has not really, uh, you know, laid out a vision, you know, 700 00:38:17,235 --> 00:38:21,585 and, and I mean, and some of that is just, he's kind of a different sort of. 701 00:38:22,185 --> 00:38:26,175 Politician, you know, for doing like the kind of fox and hedgehog dichotomy. 702 00:38:26,655 --> 00:38:29,775 You know, Abe in, in a lot of ways was something of a hedgehog in that, you 703 00:38:29,775 --> 00:38:34,185 know, was like absolutely fixated on, on this idea of kind of national greatness 704 00:38:34,185 --> 00:38:36,765 and, you know, make Japan great again. 705 00:38:37,845 --> 00:38:40,725 Perhaps we might call it, you know, that, you know that, that, you 706 00:38:40,725 --> 00:38:44,745 know, all out effort to make Japan stronger, to make Japan wealthier, 707 00:38:44,745 --> 00:38:47,925 to to leave behind, uh, the. 708 00:38:48,435 --> 00:38:52,005 You know, the, the frustrations and the difficulties of the lost decades 709 00:38:52,005 --> 00:38:53,865 to make Japan powerful and relevant. 710 00:38:54,315 --> 00:38:57,945 Uh, that's, that's not kind of how Ishiba is. 711 00:38:57,945 --> 00:39:02,565 Ishiba is much more Fox like, you know, much less animated by this 712 00:39:02,565 --> 00:39:05,385 sort of big, obsessive vision. 713 00:39:05,745 --> 00:39:11,595 Um, much more, uh, adapting responsive. 714 00:39:11,625 --> 00:39:15,135 He's not really, he's not terribly ideological ultimately. 715 00:39:15,585 --> 00:39:16,005 Um. 716 00:39:16,995 --> 00:39:21,404 So, um, you know, it's, it's just a reason. 717 00:39:21,404 --> 00:39:24,855 You know, in some ways it makes him well suited to the situation where he has to 718 00:39:24,855 --> 00:39:28,814 negotiate and he has to be willing to compromise and, you know, be extremely 719 00:39:28,814 --> 00:39:34,634 flexible on, uh, what he's willing to concede on when it comes to negotiating 720 00:39:34,634 --> 00:39:36,285 on, on policies with the opposition. 721 00:39:36,645 --> 00:39:40,035 Um, but it does mean that we just don't know, um. 722 00:39:40,410 --> 00:39:44,760 There's not, there's not a huge vision that he's, you know, gonna put all 723 00:39:44,760 --> 00:39:46,350 of his effort into trying to achieve. 724 00:39:46,350 --> 00:39:49,230 I mean, there really is just a sense of he's just trying to survive here 725 00:39:49,530 --> 00:39:53,340 as long as he can and sort of walk this tightrope, um, and, and hope 726 00:39:53,340 --> 00:39:55,260 it, uh, just hope it works out. 727 00:39:55,710 --> 00:40:00,675 And I. You know, for people who are used to watching, you know, you know, 728 00:40:00,735 --> 00:40:04,515 expecting a leader to be like Abe and to lay out this grand vision and you know, 729 00:40:04,665 --> 00:40:06,375 this, this is what we're working towards. 730 00:40:06,675 --> 00:40:09,375 Even if there's gonna be momentary zigs and zags, that's not what 731 00:40:09,375 --> 00:40:11,025 you're getting with Ishiba. 732 00:40:11,445 --> 00:40:16,425 And, um, and so that's, I mean, that's just, that's just the difference. 733 00:40:16,425 --> 00:40:20,985 Um, you know, he's got his big test in about a month when 734 00:40:21,015 --> 00:40:22,365 there'll be upper house elections. 735 00:40:22,815 --> 00:40:27,135 Um, and I. Basically, I mean, it really will be make or break for his 736 00:40:27,135 --> 00:40:32,205 government because if, um, if they can, if the LDP cannot hold, or if the 737 00:40:32,205 --> 00:40:36,225 ruling coalition cannot hold the upper house majority they have now, it's very 738 00:40:36,225 --> 00:40:37,935 hard to see how Ishiba survives that. 739 00:40:37,995 --> 00:40:42,885 So, um, you know, talk, we'll have to, we'll have to revisit things in 740 00:40:42,885 --> 00:40:46,185 a few weeks and see if he's still, uh, if he, if he's still around, 741 00:40:46,185 --> 00:40:48,735 because every, everything for him is going to be writing on that. 742 00:40:50,475 --> 00:40:52,815 Jacob Shapiro: Talk to us a little bit to close out about rice. 743 00:40:52,845 --> 00:40:56,895 'cause probably most listeners don't realize like, what a big story this is in 744 00:40:56,924 --> 00:40:58,515 sort of the Japanese political context. 745 00:40:58,515 --> 00:41:02,055 Also, a place where Yeshiva has some sort of interesting, like, 746 00:41:02,205 --> 00:41:03,855 like you said, not ideological, but. 747 00:41:03,945 --> 00:41:06,405 It seems to me he's always had agriculture in the back of his mind, 748 00:41:06,405 --> 00:41:09,225 something that he's soft on, and obviously has experience there too. 749 00:41:09,225 --> 00:41:12,675 So tell the listeners what's going on in Japanese rice politics 750 00:41:12,675 --> 00:41:13,455 and why it's so important. 751 00:41:13,455 --> 00:41:15,945 And maybe it'll, maybe it'll determine his fate in, in those 752 00:41:15,945 --> 00:41:16,815 elections that you just talked. 753 00:41:16,815 --> 00:41:16,845 Uh, 754 00:41:17,145 --> 00:41:21,045 Tobias Harris: it could, uh, it certainly, um, it, I mean it certainly 755 00:41:21,045 --> 00:41:25,155 I think is now an important determinant of his, uh, of his approval ratings. 756 00:41:25,515 --> 00:41:30,345 Um, so, you know, we've seen over the last, uh, year, I mean 757 00:41:30,345 --> 00:41:32,055 really it started with, um. 758 00:41:33,165 --> 00:41:37,065 Shortages that, uh, you know, appeared last summer where you and 759 00:41:37,065 --> 00:41:40,125 you had some bare shelves and stores were getting cleaned out of rice. 760 00:41:40,515 --> 00:41:41,805 There was a lot of different factors. 761 00:41:41,805 --> 00:41:45,944 Some of it was, uh, you know, climate change resulting in sort 762 00:41:45,944 --> 00:41:48,045 of a poor than expected crop. 763 00:41:48,435 --> 00:41:54,944 Um, you know, there has been, uh, a long-term secular decline in Japanese. 764 00:41:55,290 --> 00:41:58,259 Rice consumption that, you know, people just are not 765 00:41:58,500 --> 00:41:59,640 eating as much as they used to. 766 00:41:59,640 --> 00:42:02,729 I mean, it's still, you know, an absolute staple of the Japanese diet, but it's, 767 00:42:02,729 --> 00:42:06,540 you know, what Japanese people eat now is more diversified than in the past. 768 00:42:06,540 --> 00:42:08,879 So, relatively speaking, they're just consuming less rice. 769 00:42:08,879 --> 00:42:13,740 And so, um, you know, you, you've had that and you know of, as a 770 00:42:13,740 --> 00:42:17,490 result, you know, the farmers are kinda factoring that into their, um. 771 00:42:18,480 --> 00:42:21,150 Each of their calculations when it comes to, to acreage. 772 00:42:21,150 --> 00:42:25,290 And of course, the Japanese government is still, uh, despite reforms in the past, 773 00:42:25,290 --> 00:42:28,200 is still, uh, paying farmers not to grow. 774 00:42:28,380 --> 00:42:31,800 So, you know, there's, there's just, there's not a lot of, uh, 775 00:42:32,370 --> 00:42:34,620 flexibility in the production system. 776 00:42:34,950 --> 00:42:37,680 Uh, another factor that's been cited is that just with the 777 00:42:37,680 --> 00:42:43,170 tourism boom, um, you have lots of foreigners coming and even if, uh. 778 00:42:44,010 --> 00:42:45,510 The Japanese people are eating less rice. 779 00:42:45,510 --> 00:42:47,760 Well, you have all these foreigners come who want to come and eat sushi 780 00:42:47,760 --> 00:42:50,400 and want to eat all this, uh, you know, they want to eat the rice. 781 00:42:50,400 --> 00:42:56,610 So, um, so you had shortages last year and then, uh, and then you just have 782 00:42:56,610 --> 00:42:58,770 prices, you know, steadily start rising. 783 00:42:58,800 --> 00:43:00,780 And, you know, we saw, um. 784 00:43:01,305 --> 00:43:04,515 Prices in April doubled 98% year over year. 785 00:43:04,515 --> 00:43:07,365 And that was, you know, sort of now like the peak. 786 00:43:07,365 --> 00:43:09,314 And that really put this at the center of the agenda, you know, it's 787 00:43:09,314 --> 00:43:10,754 been sort of rising in importance. 788 00:43:10,754 --> 00:43:13,395 And, and with that it was, you know, wow, okay. 789 00:43:13,395 --> 00:43:17,564 Like this is, you know, people really, um, are, are struggling with this. 790 00:43:17,564 --> 00:43:21,194 And also because it's such an important component in a lot of other food, um, 791 00:43:21,524 --> 00:43:24,734 it was, you know, fueling higher than, you know, over, you know, higher, um. 792 00:43:25,125 --> 00:43:30,195 Higher than the 2% inflation target, uh, inflation steadily because, um, 793 00:43:30,225 --> 00:43:34,005 you have this expensive input now that is, that is making other things more 794 00:43:34,005 --> 00:43:37,335 expensive or at least you know, among, you know, depending on which, uh, 795 00:43:37,515 --> 00:43:38,710 type of inflation you're looking at. 796 00:43:38,810 --> 00:43:39,030 Um. 797 00:43:40,635 --> 00:43:44,505 So, you know, clearly a problem, clearly contributing to, uh, 798 00:43:44,535 --> 00:43:48,075 cost of living increases that, uh, new households are feeling. 799 00:43:48,555 --> 00:43:51,735 And, uh, somewhat fortuitously for Ishiba. 800 00:43:52,035 --> 00:43:57,285 His, uh, his agricultural minister, uh, had a, a Marie, I mean, literally 801 00:43:57,285 --> 00:44:00,075 people were calling him, uh, Marie Antoinette for saying this. 802 00:44:00,075 --> 00:44:01,635 You're saying that, uh. 803 00:44:02,160 --> 00:44:06,029 You know, I get so much rice for free for my supporters, uh, that, 804 00:44:06,060 --> 00:44:09,990 um, I don't have to buy any rice and not, not something that went 805 00:44:09,990 --> 00:44:11,339 over terribly well with the public. 806 00:44:11,339 --> 00:44:16,230 And so after a couple days, he was asked and the popular kojiro was 807 00:44:16,230 --> 00:44:18,029 brought in to be agriculture minister. 808 00:44:18,509 --> 00:44:22,319 Uh, and with that, uh, the government basically announced an entirely 809 00:44:22,319 --> 00:44:24,120 new approach to this problem of. 810 00:44:24,525 --> 00:44:25,545 Rising rice prices. 811 00:44:25,545 --> 00:44:27,975 They've been releasing rice from government stockpiles 812 00:44:27,975 --> 00:44:29,985 for, uh, several months now. 813 00:44:30,225 --> 00:44:32,925 But the system that they were using to do that was auctions. 814 00:44:33,225 --> 00:44:35,805 And basically what was happening was that you would be having these, you 815 00:44:35,805 --> 00:44:40,215 know, you, you'd have the auctions to buy government stockpiled rice, uh, and 816 00:44:40,215 --> 00:44:43,785 people would be buying, you know, they basically wholesalers or, or suppliers 817 00:44:43,785 --> 00:44:47,595 rebuying it and then holding onto it, you know, with the ex, you know, 818 00:44:47,595 --> 00:44:50,895 assuming that, okay, well if we just hold onto it the way prices are going, 819 00:44:50,895 --> 00:44:52,665 we'll just sell it, you know, for more. 820 00:44:53,325 --> 00:44:55,515 Um, in, you know, in a month or two. 821 00:44:55,665 --> 00:45:00,105 And so, um, they recognized that that approach wasn't working. 822 00:45:00,105 --> 00:45:02,984 And so what Kazumi announced, basically the day he took office, was that they 823 00:45:02,984 --> 00:45:07,515 were gonna start, uh, making deals with major retailers directly and 824 00:45:07,515 --> 00:45:12,075 start selling, uh, from the government stockpiles directly to the retailers. 825 00:45:12,464 --> 00:45:16,545 And there was a, basically a stampede of major retailers to sign up for this. 826 00:45:16,935 --> 00:45:17,415 Um. 827 00:45:17,924 --> 00:45:21,134 And it, I mean, it's polled very well and the rice is now starting 828 00:45:21,134 --> 00:45:25,214 to arrive in stores and, and overall rice prices are starting to tick down. 829 00:45:25,455 --> 00:45:27,615 So, so far that looks like they've maybe turned a corner. 830 00:45:27,615 --> 00:45:30,615 I mean, it looks like a, a really successful reboot 831 00:45:30,615 --> 00:45:32,325 of their Rice Pro policy. 832 00:45:32,745 --> 00:45:37,845 Uh, there are now bigger structural questions because, uh, lower rice prices, 833 00:45:37,845 --> 00:45:39,375 well, who doesn't like lower rice prices? 834 00:45:39,375 --> 00:45:42,464 The rice producers that are also an important LDP constituents. 835 00:45:42,464 --> 00:45:43,575 So, um. 836 00:45:44,339 --> 00:45:48,150 We're starting to see the beginnings of a bigger debate about. 837 00:45:48,990 --> 00:45:50,609 Japanese agricultural policy. 838 00:45:50,640 --> 00:45:53,520 How do you, you know, how should you subsidize farmers? 839 00:45:53,520 --> 00:45:54,660 How you should protect farmers? 840 00:45:54,660 --> 00:45:57,899 You know, should they just stop discouraging them from 841 00:45:57,899 --> 00:46:00,000 planting rice altogether? 842 00:46:00,330 --> 00:46:05,040 Let them plant more, um, but really do export promotion and really start 843 00:46:05,040 --> 00:46:06,870 trying to sell Japanese rice overseas. 844 00:46:07,259 --> 00:46:11,100 Uh, have other sort of subsidies and so that, that debate is to come 845 00:46:11,100 --> 00:46:15,120 and will be, I think, a major issue, uh, after the upper house election. 846 00:46:15,450 --> 00:46:16,649 Uh, but for now. 847 00:46:17,430 --> 00:46:20,850 You know, the focus really is how do you get more rice into stores and 848 00:46:20,850 --> 00:46:25,950 bring prices down and, uh, you know, so far so good for ishiba and zumi. 849 00:46:27,300 --> 00:46:28,860 Jacob Shapiro: I think sometimes people operate under the 850 00:46:28,860 --> 00:46:32,280 misapprehension that geopolitics is all about great powers in the US 851 00:46:32,280 --> 00:46:34,290 and Japan and China and South Korea. 852 00:46:34,290 --> 00:46:36,240 When I actually think it's really more about. 853 00:46:36,770 --> 00:46:37,580 Rice prices. 854 00:46:37,640 --> 00:46:40,970 I think if you really wanna understand things about politics, it's all local. 855 00:46:40,970 --> 00:46:43,910 And probably the more local and the more it hurts like local interests, 856 00:46:43,910 --> 00:46:46,250 the more you're actually gonna understand what's happening next. 857 00:46:46,640 --> 00:46:48,020 Um, Tobias, thanks man. 858 00:46:48,105 --> 00:46:50,690 I, I find Japan I are, are you finding you're getting more 859 00:46:50,690 --> 00:46:52,130 interest in people in Japan? 860 00:46:52,130 --> 00:46:55,670 Because for a long time I feel like Japan has been this, I don't know, not 861 00:46:55,670 --> 00:46:58,820 a black box, but it's like I understand China better than I understand. 862 00:46:59,180 --> 00:46:59,600 Japan. 863 00:46:59,600 --> 00:47:02,720 'cause there's just more access to information readily in English about it. 864 00:47:02,720 --> 00:47:04,250 And it's like less, I, I don't know. 865 00:47:04,250 --> 00:47:05,299 It's, it's easier to read. 866 00:47:05,305 --> 00:47:07,640 Have have you noticed a significant uptick in interest in what you're 867 00:47:07,640 --> 00:47:11,000 doing, or is it still, still relatively quiet when it comes to Japan? 868 00:47:11,750 --> 00:47:14,750 Tobias Harris: No, I, I, I think there is, um, I think, you know, 869 00:47:14,750 --> 00:47:20,149 and probably that'll probably only continue to grow, just as you know, 870 00:47:20,180 --> 00:47:24,560 the, the shape and the patterns of the global economy continue to change. 871 00:47:24,560 --> 00:47:26,180 I mean, I think Japan is, uh. 872 00:47:27,660 --> 00:47:29,910 Well positioned in that, in important ways. 873 00:47:29,910 --> 00:47:33,209 You know, I, I think, uh, you know, for better or worse too, you know, 874 00:47:33,209 --> 00:47:39,450 just as, uh, money flows shift and as the, the global bond market shifts, 875 00:47:39,450 --> 00:47:42,839 we're seeing maybe interest, you know, maybe concern about Japan. 876 00:47:42,839 --> 00:47:46,259 I mean, all of that I think is now weighing on, on people's minds. 877 00:47:46,259 --> 00:47:48,750 So, uh, no, definitely I have noticed. 878 00:47:48,750 --> 00:47:50,790 You know, for my business, Japan foresight, you've definitely 879 00:47:50,790 --> 00:47:54,540 noticed more, uh, more interest, more inquiries about it. 880 00:47:54,690 --> 00:47:56,550 And I welcome those inquiries of course. 881 00:47:56,640 --> 00:48:00,660 But, uh, yeah, no, it feel, it feels like a good time to be watching Japan. 882 00:48:01,560 --> 00:48:01,680 Jacob Shapiro: Yeah. 883 00:48:01,980 --> 00:48:04,050 Alright, well hopefully we'll have you back on soon. 884 00:48:04,170 --> 00:48:04,530 Thanks, man.