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Hello listeners.

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Welcome to the Geopolitical
Cousins podcast emergency

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episode, the US Bombed Iran.

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You don't need to hear
anything else from me.

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Email me at jacob@jacobshaer.com if you
want to send in any thoughts, comments.

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I forward them to Marco and I promise
in the next week or two, we will have

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an email address for the podcast itself.

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Okay?

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Take care of each other.

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All right?

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How should we start?

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Um, you know what?

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We love God, don't we?

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Marco?

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Do you love God?

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Do we love I love God.

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Yes.

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We love God.

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He's vengeful.

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Uh, he, he makes us work
on, on the weekends.

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I wanna first say, uh, I'm not here
if not for, uh, the dedication of

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both my wife and my mother-in-law
to get childcare here on a Sunday.

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So thank you to both of them.

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And here I am, uh, Marco, I know
you're also fighting your children

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for internet bandwidth, and
we'll see if we get through this.

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Um, we had grand plans to do a much more
insightful podcast on the trade value

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of global leaders around the world.

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And we have to delay that too because
obviously we have to talk about what's

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going on with the US and Iran, unless
you are living, um, in a bunker, some

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30 miles below Fordo or in Naans.

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You probably know by now that the
United States launched airstrikes on

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three different nuclear sites in Iran.

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Um, detail not exactly clear
on how much is damaged.

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Everything from completely
wiped out to meh.

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Like maybe it's not gonna
set them back so much.

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Uh, I think there's a lot of
reporting still yet to come on that.

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Um, some of the more interesting fallouts,
at least that I've seen, um, is that

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Iran's parliament seems to have passed.

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I don't know what, it's a motion,
a decision to block the straight of

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war moves, but it's not up to them.

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It's up to the National Security Council
of Iran and they will probably not do it.

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I'm sure we'll get into that.

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I'm sure you saw the foreign
minister of Iran is supposed to

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talk to Vladimir Putin tomorrow.

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Not sure what he's gonna
get from all of that.

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Um, I wouldn't say that President
Trump and his, his cronies, his

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lackies, um, have taken further
retaliation off the table.

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It seems pretty clear that they want,
you know, an end to an, they want some

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kind of nuclear deal going forward.

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And they've said if there are
retaliations that you know, they, that

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there's much worse that could be done.

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Um, but where do you want to pick it up?

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Uh, Marco.

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Well, I wanna pick it up at
the fact that we're both, uh,

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totally in the summer vibes here.

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Uh, game seven NBA game
seven is about to be played.

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Yeah.

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And, uh, too, so the
end NBA season is over.

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So you're, you're already in Atlanta
Braves, uh, I wearing the, the

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Padres, uh, famous, uh, Clemente
who died tragically in an air crash.

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So we're both, uh, in a baseball
theme, which is interesting.

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And I would, yes, to be

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clear though, I've, I've been in a
baseball theme ever since Zion pulled his

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hamstring for the first time this season.

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I, I got to summer mode
pretty quickly, but yes.

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Well, and I, and I wanna open up
with, uh, the Tupac Jaki quote.

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I've been, uh, quoting
for quite some time now.

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You know, uh, it's one of my favorite
lines, uh, from Tupac's changes.

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I still see no changes.

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Can't the brother get a little piece?

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There's war in the streets,
in the war in the Middle East.

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Instead of war on poverty,
they got a war on drugs.

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So the police can bother me.

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And I start off with that.

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Uh, Jacob, my favorite Tupac quote,
because I mean, changes is what?

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1997? Mm-hmm.

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Lemme see.

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Actually, I don't know.

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I'm gonna guess it's 1997.

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Um, uh, that does sound a
little bit late, but, oh my bad.

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92. Um, 92, but it was
remixed later in 98.

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Um, so I mean, it can't be
97 'cause the man died in 96.

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Oh, fail Marco fail.

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I

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mean, you, you think he's dead.

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I mean, OO obviously this
incontrovertible proof here.

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Anyway,

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look, the point is the man recorded,
uh, those lines in 19 92, 1 of the

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smoothest bars that Tupac ever spit.

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I still see no changes.

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There's war in the streets and
the war in the Middle East.

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I mean, here we are.

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It's June 22nd, 2025.

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I'm sitting in Los Angeles.

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There's still, well, the media and
President Trump would love it to be a war.

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It's not really, but there's still
protests in the streets and yes,

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there is still war in the Middle East.

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So the reason that it's relevant
to start this way is because I've

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gotten so many texts, Jacob, from
so many people who are like children

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who have walked into an adult
conversation, and that's perfectly fine.

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That's why you're listening to this pod.

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This pod.

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The intention is to, you know, like
give you some ammunition when you're

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arguing with your uncle or when you
are on a text thread with your family.

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The fact of the matter is that
this is not the first time that

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the United States and Iran.

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At each other's throats.

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This is not the first time that we have a
crisis in the Middle East for god's sakes.

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We've had 25 years of almost
unrelenting warfare in the place.

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Um, 1980s.

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Were a a far more turbulent time for
the Middle East, and as a result for the

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rest of the world, 1970s, of course, we
had a lot of things happening then too.

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You and I went through this whole
history when we talked about

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Israel a couple of months ago.

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I believe one of our first podcasts
was actually war with Iran.

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I think it was number two.

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So,

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uh,

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everybody and

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I, I actually remember thinking at
the time, I didn't wanna be talking

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about it 'cause I didn't wanna
be just another Shapiro out here

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talking about Israel and Iran again.

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But it was the right thing
to talk about, apparently.

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There it was.

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And so I think that's the
first thing I would say.

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This is, this is par for
the course in that region.

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But I will say that I have, this is
a little bit different obviously,

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because the US has been circling around
the idea of bombing these facilities

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for the past, you know, 20 years.

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It hasn't chosen that until today.

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Uh, it's clear that Israel.

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Basically prompted this, uh, I, you know,
you and I have already talked about this.

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Just as a recap for our listeners.

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I don't believe that Israel warned the
United States about their intentions.

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I think that President Trump has to
front, he has to defend this narrative

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that he knew that he was involved.

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I think Israel told the US like two days
before, that's why they pulled those,

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uh, people from the embassies and so on.

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But the reality is that Israel, uh,
is the dog and the US is the tail.

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And President Trump, in a way
I sympathize because you don't

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wanna be the tail of a dog.

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You don't want to be wagged.

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And so in a way, he had to do this
to ensure that American adversaries,

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whether they're Russia or China, know
that, you know, the us Sure it can be

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wagged, but it can still wag pretty
forcefully and it can drop a lot of

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bombs that nobody else in the world can.

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Uh, by flying, uh, B two
bombers out of Missouri.

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Around the world and destroying
something that's 80 meters,

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a hundred meters underground.

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So, uh, that's kind of
the setup where we are.

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And now of course, the number one
question is how does Iran retaliate?

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And the question for that really
starts off with this theme that

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I think we should hit head on.

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We did it a little bit at the last
podcast, but I still think it's worth it.

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Regime change.

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Like the argument goes, the argument,
and I'm sure you've had many texts from

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many people, from many walks of life.

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Like my buddies on the fantasy ba uh,
basketball, uh, league that I'm in, go

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JBL, he's been running for over 30 years.

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These guys are like really serious
about their fantasy basketball.

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And I, I lose all the time because
they're really serious about it.

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Um, but, uh, you know, the question
is like, look, regime change, right?

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A lot of people are saying like, well,
clearly regime change is an option.

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Uh, and this is a really
important question.

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It it's not just that some
lay observer of geopolitics.

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Thinks that it's an option and
therefore we gotta talk about it.

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The reason it's relevant is that
yes, if the Iranian regime feels

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that they're back against the
wall, who knows what they will do?

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That's the thesis.

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You've got an 86-year-old, a
religious zealot sitting there, right?

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He's, he's gonna live for
what, not a six months Yolo.

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Let's go, let's meet DMA baby.

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Let's do it quickly.

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So, you know, this is,
this is where we are.

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Um, and so it's a very coaching question
we have to, uh, uh, tack on head on.

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What I would say is what I've been saying
for like a week now, for two weeks, you

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cannot have regime chain from the air.

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It's very difficult.

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Most countries don't fall apart as
they're circling the wagons, you

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know, just circling the wagons.

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If anyone inside that circle says,
Hey, you know what we should do?

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We should let the Indians
come into the circle.

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How about that?

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Yeah.

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That person gets shot.

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To use the Western analogy, like
as you're circling the wagons.

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This analogy, yes, comes
from Oregon Trail era.

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You circle the wagons, you're
being attacked, you're shooting at

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the people outside of the circle.

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Anybody inside that circle starts
contemplating maybe, maybe this is the

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land of the Native Americans, you know,
maybe we should go back to like Arkansas.

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Like, no, that person, boom, dead.

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Especially in the regime
as brutal as Iran.

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So if our listeners want an example of
regime chain that came about from the

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air, it's my homeland of Serbia in 1999,
NATO bombed it in 1999, NATO bomb Serbia.

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18 months later there was regime
change, but there's a huge

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difference between Serbia and Iran.

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Enormous difference.

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SLOs regime in Serbia never
shot protestors in the streets.

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They really didn't.

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They beat him up.

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They offed him up.

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They imprisoned them, but they did
not, I mean, there was like even

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independent media in the country
during the nineties when the guy was

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like called a dictator in the west.

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The truth is he really wasn't,
SRBs actually elected the dude.

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You know, if you wanna blame
Serbia for anything, there you go.

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Blame it for electing an idiot, right?

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But the truth is, yeah, he stole a
little bit here and there he was.

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He was mean, don't get me wrong.

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But there, there was nowhere near the
brutality of what goes on in Iran.

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So you got two things going
against regime change.

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And why I don't think the regime is
threatened as much as people think.

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There's two things going against it.

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Number one is that they have no hesitation
to shoot people in the streets on a

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random Tuesday, let alone when they're
being attacked by the little Satan.

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Okay?

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That's the number one
and the great Satan up.

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The second issue is that in the context
of defending themselves against Israel,

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of course that is gonna be very easy for
them to basically tell everyone in the

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society, like, look, it's every man up.

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Everybody's gotta defend the country.

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This is the moment of truth.

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This comes also, you know, you hear
a lot of people say like, well, but

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if there's regime change, there'll
be a government that will be more

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conducive to being pro-Israeli.

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The Shah of Iran, who was deposed,
of course in 1979, the Shah did

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recognize Israel and was relatively
like, all right, but if you wanna see

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his thoughts on Israel, go on YouTube.

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Watch a 19 74, 60 minute episode where
he's actually interviewed in Tehran.

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The antisemitism that comes out of
this guy is like, is next level.

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All right.

233
00:11:06,510 --> 00:11:12,209
So like this idea that there's some
alternative in Iran, they will embrace in

234
00:11:12,209 --> 00:11:20,280
a brotherly embrace, their long lost, you
know, cousins, the Jews is just wrong.

235
00:11:20,310 --> 00:11:21,719
That's just not gonna happen.

236
00:11:21,719 --> 00:11:23,730
Like if there is regime change in Iran.

237
00:11:24,464 --> 00:11:28,155
It wouldn't be pro-Israel, especially
not after what just happened that would,

238
00:11:28,305 --> 00:11:30,074
you would lose immediately legitimacy.

239
00:11:30,074 --> 00:11:33,675
There's like civilians dying in
Iran right now because Israel

240
00:11:33,675 --> 00:11:34,665
is bombing them, you know?

241
00:11:34,665 --> 00:11:36,795
And that's just, you know, obviously war.

242
00:11:36,795 --> 00:11:37,905
I'm not saying anything about it.

243
00:11:37,905 --> 00:11:42,675
But the point is, the point here is
that I don't think this regime feels

244
00:11:42,675 --> 00:11:44,084
that it's back is against the wall.

245
00:11:44,084 --> 00:11:46,395
They do look vulnerable, they look weak.

246
00:11:46,694 --> 00:11:47,805
This is not a good news.

247
00:11:47,805 --> 00:11:51,255
They need to continue to strike Iran,
uh, Israel with ballistic missiles.

248
00:11:51,255 --> 00:11:55,035
But I think the first question
we have to ask is how willing

249
00:11:55,545 --> 00:11:58,125
are they to, um, go suicidal?

250
00:11:58,125 --> 00:12:02,984
And the reason that's important is
because I believe that the number one

251
00:12:02,984 --> 00:12:06,375
thing that, uh, people are listening
to this podcast right now for is

252
00:12:06,375 --> 00:12:11,234
our thoughts on how Iran retaliates,
well, that will be determined by how

253
00:12:11,234 --> 00:12:13,604
suicidal they feel in Tehran right now.

254
00:12:13,604 --> 00:12:13,694
Mm-hmm.

255
00:12:14,234 --> 00:12:17,084
So there is a hierarchy of retaliation.

256
00:12:17,084 --> 00:12:20,594
I would say the number one
hierarchy, the number one, uh,

257
00:12:20,594 --> 00:12:21,795
this is a hundred percent certain.

258
00:12:22,170 --> 00:12:24,360
This will happen over
the next 24 or 48 hours.

259
00:12:24,600 --> 00:12:28,170
They're going to attack with
missiles, some American basis in Iraq.

260
00:12:29,010 --> 00:12:30,300
That's far for the course.

261
00:12:31,020 --> 00:12:37,050
They did this after General Soleimani was
assassinated by the US in January of 2020.

262
00:12:37,290 --> 00:12:39,900
Many of our listeners forgot that
because it's a long time ago.

263
00:12:41,190 --> 00:12:44,100
You can, I mean, not just that, but
it was not just a long time ago.

264
00:12:44,100 --> 00:12:48,270
It was also, um, right before COVID,
general Soleimani was one of the

265
00:12:48,270 --> 00:12:52,950
most popular, if not the popular,
most popular human being in Iran.

266
00:12:53,700 --> 00:12:54,780
Everybody loved this guy.

267
00:12:54,780 --> 00:12:55,650
He was awesome.

268
00:12:55,800 --> 00:12:59,010
As far as Iranians are concerned,
obviously from the Israeli perspective,

269
00:12:59,010 --> 00:13:01,380
American perspective, kind of a terrorist.

270
00:13:01,380 --> 00:13:03,510
But you know, I'm not
here to judge whatever.

271
00:13:03,990 --> 00:13:07,350
Uh, the point is he was assassinated
while on a diplomatic mission.

272
00:13:08,130 --> 00:13:14,310
Very, very dramatic increased intentions
by the US Iran retaliated by bombing

273
00:13:14,310 --> 00:13:18,750
some American facilities in Iraq, and
President Trump said, I totally get that.

274
00:13:18,780 --> 00:13:19,620
I understand it.

275
00:13:19,890 --> 00:13:20,700
Let's move on.

276
00:13:21,420 --> 00:13:23,430
That's the first thing that
I think is going to happen.

277
00:13:23,430 --> 00:13:25,980
And I think it's gonna happen, and
I think President Trump will react

278
00:13:25,980 --> 00:13:28,440
exactly the same as he did in 2020.

279
00:13:29,100 --> 00:13:33,090
The second kind of retaliation is more
serious is it would involve attacking

280
00:13:33,090 --> 00:13:35,070
American assets outside of Iraq.

281
00:13:35,910 --> 00:13:41,070
So things like Bahrain, Qatar, uh,
the basis there, I think the US will

282
00:13:41,070 --> 00:13:42,900
have to ret retaliate against that.

283
00:13:43,080 --> 00:13:44,820
So that prolongs this crisis.

284
00:13:44,820 --> 00:13:49,080
And then the third retaliation, of
course, is straight of MOUs for those

285
00:13:49,080 --> 00:13:52,170
of you who are listening to this and
wondering, why are we focusing on this?

286
00:13:52,170 --> 00:13:53,940
Why not on terrorism,
this, that, or the other?

287
00:13:54,480 --> 00:13:58,620
Because straight of MOUs would be a
way where this war would finally impact

288
00:13:58,620 --> 00:14:03,600
you at home because thus far you have
not been impacted at all that a single

289
00:14:03,600 --> 00:14:07,560
barrel of oil has been lost since 2023.

290
00:14:07,560 --> 00:14:10,350
I mean, it's fascinating since
that terrorist attack by Hamas

291
00:14:10,740 --> 00:14:13,710
that a single barrel of oil
has been lost from the region.

292
00:14:14,220 --> 00:14:17,160
Fascinating amount of
self-control by everyone involved.

293
00:14:17,835 --> 00:14:20,985
And the reality is that if Iran
were to interdict trade for

294
00:14:20,985 --> 00:14:24,885
moose, it would interrupt the
fallough of 20% of world's oil.

295
00:14:24,885 --> 00:14:26,655
So yes, gasoline prices would rise.

296
00:14:27,255 --> 00:14:30,525
So I'm gonna stop here and then
we can like see what you think.

297
00:14:31,905 --> 00:14:33,795
And then we can disentangle
a lot of these things.

298
00:14:34,214 --> 00:14:34,515
Yeah.

299
00:14:34,515 --> 00:14:35,685
I wanna unpack some things.

300
00:14:35,685 --> 00:14:38,474
So the first, there's a couple things
I probably should have added to the

301
00:14:38,474 --> 00:14:41,685
intro, which is one of the things
that is happening that I don't think

302
00:14:41,685 --> 00:14:45,015
has, or is sort of being covered
up by, by all the, and it's hard to

303
00:14:45,015 --> 00:14:46,665
cover everything right now fairly.

304
00:14:46,665 --> 00:14:48,285
So I'm not, I'm not shitty
on the media for that.

305
00:14:48,285 --> 00:14:50,415
I have plenty of other things
that shit on the media for, but

306
00:14:50,415 --> 00:14:52,035
Israel's been getting hit harder.

307
00:14:52,300 --> 00:14:54,910
In the last couple of days,
they ban public gatherings.

308
00:14:55,239 --> 00:14:59,410
Um, what looked like Iranian competence
now looks at least has a semblance

309
00:14:59,410 --> 00:15:03,069
of a strategy that their overwhelming
missile defense with lower quality

310
00:15:03,520 --> 00:15:04,810
rockets and things like that.

311
00:15:04,810 --> 00:15:07,930
And then once the missile defense
is confused, um, they're coming in

312
00:15:07,930 --> 00:15:11,469
with, you know, three or four or
five really high quality missiles and

313
00:15:11,469 --> 00:15:13,239
causing a significant amount of damage.

314
00:15:13,239 --> 00:15:15,310
So that wasn't true the last
time that we were on the podcast.

315
00:15:15,310 --> 00:15:18,670
It was just Israel spanking the
Iranians into the previous century.

316
00:15:18,670 --> 00:15:22,150
Like I'm not saying that it's even
e uh, equal right now in terms of

317
00:15:22,150 --> 00:15:25,239
the damage, but they are starting
to punch back and they are imposing

318
00:15:25,239 --> 00:15:27,040
real costs, uh, inside of Israel.

319
00:15:27,040 --> 00:15:27,790
So I think there's that.

320
00:15:28,030 --> 00:15:31,719
I think what you said about the supreme
leader is really important because to

321
00:15:31,719 --> 00:15:33,250
my mind, one of the most important.

322
00:15:33,390 --> 00:15:36,630
Uh, reports that came out was the
New York Times had this one that

323
00:15:36,630 --> 00:15:39,449
the Supreme leader has put forward
three names for his successor.

324
00:15:39,449 --> 00:15:39,540
Mm-hmm.

325
00:15:39,810 --> 00:15:41,819
If he should be taken
out by assassination.

326
00:15:42,120 --> 00:15:44,100
And there's, there's two
things to note there.

327
00:15:44,100 --> 00:15:46,380
Number one, his son is
reportedly not one of them.

328
00:15:46,829 --> 00:15:48,660
And he, the supreme leader got in trouble.

329
00:15:48,720 --> 00:15:49,860
Was that 12 months ago?

330
00:15:49,860 --> 00:15:54,360
Or, I can't remember exactly when,
because he was trying to put his son in

331
00:15:54,360 --> 00:15:55,980
the line for who was gonna replace him.

332
00:15:56,040 --> 00:15:59,040
And that was the whole point of the
Iranian revolution to get rid of

333
00:15:59,040 --> 00:16:02,850
the hereditary monarchy and, and
sort of sclerotic monarchy that

334
00:16:02,850 --> 00:16:04,890
had, you know, uh, come about that.

335
00:16:05,100 --> 00:16:07,020
So he is taken his son off the
board and he is gotten three

336
00:16:07,020 --> 00:16:10,230
successors, which goes to your point
about he's ready for martyrdom.

337
00:16:10,755 --> 00:16:14,175
He's ready to meet the mahi and
he's, he's ready to sort of have

338
00:16:14,175 --> 00:16:15,375
somebody else take the reign.

339
00:16:15,375 --> 00:16:18,944
So he's not ready for the regime
to commit suicide, but he obviously

340
00:16:18,944 --> 00:16:21,135
himself has moved in that direction.

341
00:16:21,135 --> 00:16:22,215
So I think that's an important thing.

342
00:16:22,574 --> 00:16:28,095
Um, I want to SI want to really underscore
what you said about Mohammed, uh, Raiha.

343
00:16:28,095 --> 00:16:28,995
Pavi and his views.

344
00:16:29,295 --> 00:16:34,305
Um, the Iranian nuclear program did not
begin after the revolution with the IRGC.

345
00:16:34,305 --> 00:16:37,905
It began with the Shah and the Shah
who gave the middle finger to Kissinger

346
00:16:37,905 --> 00:16:41,204
and Nixon and the United States
saying, nah, I sort of want a civilian

347
00:16:41,204 --> 00:16:44,295
nuclear program with the language
that the Saudis are using right now.

348
00:16:44,295 --> 00:16:47,895
It was only when the regime changed
that suddenly the United States

349
00:16:47,985 --> 00:16:49,395
got into a big huff about that.

350
00:16:49,395 --> 00:16:52,125
And that's why, you know, the song
that you listen to in the intro, you

351
00:16:52,125 --> 00:16:55,064
go back and read reports from the
1980s, like, we have literally been

352
00:16:55,064 --> 00:16:57,704
talking about this for over 50 years.

353
00:16:57,704 --> 00:16:58,935
Like, this is not something new.

354
00:16:58,935 --> 00:17:01,155
It's the eternal return of the same.

355
00:17:01,185 --> 00:17:03,704
I think there's also a really
important question about Iran's

356
00:17:03,704 --> 00:17:07,905
capacity res to respond versus their
need to, one of my scenarios was.

357
00:17:08,105 --> 00:17:10,895
Maybe nuclear breakout if their
backs were really against the wall.

358
00:17:10,925 --> 00:17:13,835
I feel like I've seen enough to
say they don't have a nuke and

359
00:17:13,835 --> 00:17:16,234
that they weren't close enough to
try and put anything on the board.

360
00:17:16,504 --> 00:17:18,544
Straight of horror moves, like
you said, that's suicidal.

361
00:17:18,544 --> 00:17:23,254
If the best that they've got is some
pot shots at Iraq or Qatar or Bahrain,

362
00:17:23,615 --> 00:17:26,435
like we're talking about a regime
that doesn't really have many options.

363
00:17:26,915 --> 00:17:30,125
Um, so then like, you know, what
is the big deal in the long run?

364
00:17:30,125 --> 00:17:33,544
And I actually think I, I want to go
back to, to, to maybe reframe a little

365
00:17:33,544 --> 00:17:36,965
bit and then we can back into some of
the scenarios and, and the succession

366
00:17:36,965 --> 00:17:40,115
challenges and the regime change
thing, which is two different people.

367
00:17:40,115 --> 00:17:42,605
One of whom was my wife and another
whom, another whom was a friend

368
00:17:42,605 --> 00:17:45,544
who was vacationing in France,
which I was vacationing in France.

369
00:17:46,024 --> 00:17:48,814
Um, and their questions
were actually much simpler.

370
00:17:48,814 --> 00:17:50,375
They weren't, is there
gonna be regime change?

371
00:17:50,375 --> 00:17:52,294
Was their questions
were, am I gonna be okay?

372
00:17:52,679 --> 00:17:54,840
Like, is anything gonna
hit me at home with this?

373
00:17:54,840 --> 00:17:56,520
Do I need to be worried about this?

374
00:17:56,820 --> 00:17:58,080
So maybe Marco.

375
00:17:58,080 --> 00:17:58,560
So let's do that.

376
00:17:58,560 --> 00:18:01,050
Yeah, let's do that first, because I
think you and I are nerdy and we wanna

377
00:18:01,050 --> 00:18:04,020
unpack it, but I think, well just for
the listener who has suddenly woken up

378
00:18:04,020 --> 00:18:05,639
and is like, oh, we're bombing Iran.

379
00:18:06,000 --> 00:18:07,260
Like, are we gonna be okay?

380
00:18:07,264 --> 00:18:07,274
Yeah.

381
00:18:07,439 --> 00:18:08,850
Like, is is everything fine?

382
00:18:08,850 --> 00:18:10,905
And then maybe we can back into
some of the nerdy questions.

383
00:18:10,905 --> 00:18:11,581
So let's talk about that.

384
00:18:11,586 --> 00:18:12,270
Think we can do a service

385
00:18:12,270 --> 00:18:12,449
there.

386
00:18:12,455 --> 00:18:13,590
Talk about, yeah, let, let's do that.

387
00:18:13,649 --> 00:18:17,850
Uh, I was gonna tackle straight
to ose, but that's because I work

388
00:18:18,149 --> 00:18:20,250
in finance, I work for investors.

389
00:18:20,639 --> 00:18:21,330
Well, and, and let's get there.

390
00:18:21,330 --> 00:18:23,310
'cause I think that's
we'll actual, tangible.

391
00:18:23,310 --> 00:18:23,669
We'll get there.

392
00:18:23,675 --> 00:18:25,620
But, but, but I do think
people are afraid enough.

393
00:18:25,620 --> 00:18:27,629
They're like, oh my God, we're
dropping the bombs and it's God

394
00:18:27,629 --> 00:18:29,250
bless America, divine providence.

395
00:18:29,250 --> 00:18:30,240
And like, am I okay?

396
00:18:30,240 --> 00:18:32,939
Should I be keeping my kids
from like, what's going on here?

397
00:18:32,939 --> 00:18:33,449
You know, so,

398
00:18:33,449 --> 00:18:34,199
so here's what I would say.

399
00:18:34,199 --> 00:18:36,570
I mean, like, uh, everyone who's
listening to this for the oil

400
00:18:36,570 --> 00:18:37,770
price can wait until the end.

401
00:18:38,370 --> 00:18:39,000
You know what I mean?

402
00:18:39,419 --> 00:18:40,740
Uh, so yes.

403
00:18:40,740 --> 00:18:41,610
Let's, let's deal with that.

404
00:18:41,610 --> 00:18:43,800
So how does this become World War iii?

405
00:18:44,790 --> 00:18:47,760
It becomes World War II because
China and Russia decides to

406
00:18:47,760 --> 00:18:49,889
defend their ally and new America.

407
00:18:50,370 --> 00:18:51,929
And the chances of that are negative.

408
00:18:52,440 --> 00:18:55,770
They're negative percentages and
yes, yes, my dear friends who

409
00:18:55,770 --> 00:18:57,480
know math, no, that's impossible.

410
00:18:57,510 --> 00:19:01,650
I'm fucking, I'm staking a claim right
here and creating new mathematics

411
00:19:01,860 --> 00:19:03,330
where there's a negative probability.

412
00:19:04,650 --> 00:19:06,720
You know, nobody's going to help Iran.

413
00:19:07,110 --> 00:19:10,530
I mean, Vladimir Putin, you posted
a, a tweet where he's saying

414
00:19:10,530 --> 00:19:13,950
like, well, you gotta take into
consideration that there's like.

415
00:19:14,580 --> 00:19:17,340
Over a million Russian
speaking Jews in Israel.

416
00:19:17,340 --> 00:19:18,840
Like, I'm not gonna take sides.

417
00:19:19,920 --> 00:19:21,870
That, that, that, okay.

418
00:19:21,870 --> 00:19:23,940
Let, let's just, yeah, I,
I wanna quote him directly.

419
00:19:23,940 --> 00:19:26,460
Somebody asked Putin why
he wasn't assisting Iran.

420
00:19:26,460 --> 00:19:28,260
His response was, I'm quoting him now.

421
00:19:28,260 --> 00:19:31,440
Israel today is almost a
Russian speaking country.

422
00:19:31,440 --> 00:19:34,290
2 million people from the Soviet
Union and Russia live there.

423
00:19:34,530 --> 00:19:36,270
We take that into account.

424
00:19:36,480 --> 00:19:38,730
This is from the president of
the country that was behind the

425
00:19:38,730 --> 00:19:42,240
protocols of the elders of Zion
and was probably more antisemitic.

426
00:19:42,465 --> 00:19:45,675
Then Nazi Germany and any of the
others, the reason the 2 million

427
00:19:45,675 --> 00:19:48,675
Russian Jews are there is because
you couldn't kill them quickly enough

428
00:19:48,675 --> 00:19:50,685
in Russia and in the Soviet Union.

429
00:19:50,685 --> 00:19:53,655
And he's saying that they're
gonna hold off on bombing Israel?

430
00:19:53,655 --> 00:19:56,655
No, because of Slavic
like, uh, love connection.

431
00:19:56,865 --> 00:19:59,835
I like literally, I don't know what to do
with, by the way, you can tell there is

432
00:19:59,835 --> 00:20:01,785
a Slavic Jewish love connection.

433
00:20:01,785 --> 00:20:03,525
It's called the Geopolitical Cousins.

434
00:20:03,975 --> 00:20:07,065
We're showing that we can work
together in peace, in harmony.

435
00:20:07,695 --> 00:20:10,335
But that's, you know, but that's
because my SLS were trained by the

436
00:20:10,335 --> 00:20:14,385
Ottomans and there was nobody more
pro is, uh, proje than the Ottomans.

437
00:20:14,385 --> 00:20:15,015
So, you know,

438
00:20:15,075 --> 00:20:15,255
yeah.

439
00:20:15,260 --> 00:20:16,215
They, they were up there.

440
00:20:16,215 --> 00:20:16,995
They, they were, they were up there.

441
00:20:16,995 --> 00:20:17,690
They were they nice.

442
00:20:17,720 --> 00:20:20,265
They were, they were the ones
who sold the Jews Palestine.

443
00:20:20,265 --> 00:20:23,055
If you got problems with, uh, Israel
today, it's really the Ottomans

444
00:20:23,055 --> 00:20:24,135
that you should be worried about.

445
00:20:24,135 --> 00:20:25,815
Not so much, you know,
the guys who bought it.

446
00:20:26,505 --> 00:20:31,275
Uh, but, but going back to this issue,
uh, so just to tell everyone who's

447
00:20:31,275 --> 00:20:33,885
worried about World War iii, it's not
gonna start, and it's not gonna start

448
00:20:33,885 --> 00:20:40,065
because Iran finds itself in an oddly
comfortable and familiar place alone.

449
00:20:41,820 --> 00:20:47,310
So this is not something that they
have, you know, not experienced before.

450
00:20:48,150 --> 00:20:51,150
All the talk of China, Russia, Iran Axis.

451
00:20:51,690 --> 00:20:53,610
That's American propaganda guys.

452
00:20:54,300 --> 00:20:56,190
And I, and I wanna turn
on the TikTok camera.

453
00:20:56,670 --> 00:20:57,405
Um, turn on Sponsored.

454
00:20:57,405 --> 00:21:02,085
We got it sponsored by the
ccp by Coinbase and ccp.

455
00:21:02,325 --> 00:21:03,445
Coinbase and ccp.

456
00:21:03,900 --> 00:21:10,110
Um, look, this notion that there
is some access of evil out there,

457
00:21:10,530 --> 00:21:15,150
that's American propaganda and it,
it exists so that you, dear American

458
00:21:15,210 --> 00:21:18,810
can give your taxpayer dollars to
a trillion dollar defense budget.

459
00:21:19,085 --> 00:21:24,030
But the fact of the matter is that,
and I hit Saudi like Stephen Bannon

460
00:21:24,030 --> 00:21:29,220
and like Dr. Carlson, but like
there is no clear strategic alliance

461
00:21:29,250 --> 00:21:31,230
between Russia, China, and Iran.

462
00:21:31,380 --> 00:21:36,510
If there was Russia would not have
to buy North Korean artillery shells,

463
00:21:37,290 --> 00:21:38,970
they would've been able to buy Chinese.

464
00:21:39,510 --> 00:21:43,710
Artillery shells, which are like
better and not 70 years old.

465
00:21:44,310 --> 00:21:48,450
So China has been very reticent to help
Russia and its war against Ukraine.

466
00:21:48,450 --> 00:21:48,630
Yeah.

467
00:21:48,630 --> 00:21:52,800
They're buying their oil, but so
is American Ally, India, and on

468
00:21:52,800 --> 00:21:58,140
Iran, the S 300 surface to air
system that Russia gave them Sure.

469
00:21:58,140 --> 00:21:59,670
Did not work well.

470
00:22:00,180 --> 00:22:03,570
And Russia, uh, there was a report
in the media right at, when the

471
00:22:03,570 --> 00:22:06,870
war started, Iran asked Russia for
help, and Russia was like, sorry,

472
00:22:06,870 --> 00:22:08,670
we, we just, we have our hands full.

473
00:22:09,090 --> 00:22:12,180
So the fact of the matter here is
that when Putin says that it's his

474
00:22:12,180 --> 00:22:15,990
love for the Russian speaking Jews in
Israel, that he can't choose sides.

475
00:22:16,470 --> 00:22:19,950
There's a, there's a little bit of the
reality that he just materially can't

476
00:22:19,950 --> 00:22:23,550
because he's involved in a war that has
stretched his own country, but also that

477
00:22:23,550 --> 00:22:25,620
Russia hasn't really supported Iran.

478
00:22:25,620 --> 00:22:26,970
Over the last 20 years.

479
00:22:27,300 --> 00:22:33,300
Russia voted for the UN sanctions
against Iran, the sanctions that brought

480
00:22:33,390 --> 00:22:39,030
Iran to heal, and that gave us that
nuclear deal that Obama negotiated.

481
00:22:39,615 --> 00:22:43,785
Those sanctions were imposed with
Russian support because Russia does

482
00:22:43,785 --> 00:22:45,705
not want Iran to have a nuclear weapon.

483
00:22:46,155 --> 00:22:51,195
Russia dragged its feet for years
to deliver the S 300 surface

484
00:22:51,195 --> 00:22:53,625
to air missile that has now
proven to be completely useless.

485
00:22:53,625 --> 00:22:55,605
But even that, they dragged their feet.

486
00:22:56,265 --> 00:22:58,275
So Tehran finds itself very alone.

487
00:22:58,275 --> 00:23:03,825
And that's a familiar place because
from 1980 to 1988, when Saddam Hussein

488
00:23:03,825 --> 00:23:07,965
proceeded to kill hundreds of thousands
of civilians in Iran in a brutal

489
00:23:07,965 --> 00:23:11,415
eight year war, which we need to keep
reminding everyone who listens to

490
00:23:11,415 --> 00:23:15,705
this, please, if you wanna know what's
going on right now, go Wikipedia.

491
00:23:15,705 --> 00:23:17,175
Just read Iran, Iraq War.

492
00:23:17,625 --> 00:23:19,845
You think that what's
happening now is a big deal?

493
00:23:20,055 --> 00:23:21,135
This is a joke.

494
00:23:22,185 --> 00:23:23,445
This is a bee sting.

495
00:23:23,535 --> 00:23:29,565
Israel is a bee sting compared
to the grizzly attack that Iran

496
00:23:29,565 --> 00:23:31,905
had to survive from 1980 to 1988.

497
00:23:31,905 --> 00:23:33,015
The regime was brand new.

498
00:23:34,245 --> 00:23:38,145
It was far more on the edge of survival.

499
00:23:38,685 --> 00:23:43,215
Mere months after the 1979 overthrow
of the Shah, you had religious

500
00:23:43,215 --> 00:23:44,475
zealous running the country.

501
00:23:44,595 --> 00:23:45,855
They just took over.

502
00:23:46,215 --> 00:23:52,215
And the United States and the Soviet
Union together locked in arms supported

503
00:23:52,215 --> 00:23:54,675
Saddam Hussein's war machine against Iran.

504
00:23:54,675 --> 00:23:55,455
Lemme say that again.

505
00:23:55,815 --> 00:23:58,215
There weren't many things that the
United States of America and the

506
00:23:58,215 --> 00:24:00,014
Soviet Union were on the same side for.

507
00:24:00,195 --> 00:24:01,754
They were on the same side here.

508
00:24:02,565 --> 00:24:08,175
And every other western or advanced
country in the world on the planet

509
00:24:08,175 --> 00:24:13,965
supported Saddam Hussein, except
ironically, somewhat Israelis in alanine

510
00:24:13,965 --> 00:24:16,305
way, way actually supported Iran.

511
00:24:17,085 --> 00:24:21,524
Uh, so the point here is that for the
eight years of that war backed up against

512
00:24:21,524 --> 00:24:25,665
the actual wall, not some proverbial
wall that CNN is telling you about.

513
00:24:25,695 --> 00:24:26,024
No, no, no.

514
00:24:26,024 --> 00:24:28,335
Actually, their, their
backs were against the wall.

515
00:24:28,784 --> 00:24:32,774
Iran did not lose, its cool, it fought
Saddam, uh, to a standstill actually,

516
00:24:33,044 --> 00:24:34,274
you know, didn't really win the war.

517
00:24:34,274 --> 00:24:37,605
The war ended in a, in a,
in, in relatively a tie.

518
00:24:38,010 --> 00:24:42,180
They did not lose an inch of their
territory in that conflict, including the

519
00:24:42,180 --> 00:24:44,640
southwestern region where the Arabs lived.

520
00:24:44,645 --> 00:24:44,725
Mm-hmm.

521
00:24:45,420 --> 00:24:47,220
Uh, they, they, they helped.

522
00:24:47,370 --> 00:24:50,730
And so my point about this is
that this is not news to Tehran.

523
00:24:50,730 --> 00:24:54,000
And if you listen to their foreign
minister, who's walk, who's running

524
00:24:54,000 --> 00:24:57,090
around, their deputy foreign
minister was on Christiana Maur,

525
00:24:57,090 --> 00:24:59,405
actually on CNNA couple of days ago.

526
00:24:59,850 --> 00:25:02,550
They referred to this war in
all of their conversation.

527
00:25:02,550 --> 00:25:07,830
It was actually kind of funny because
Amanpour, who's in my view, just terrible

528
00:25:07,830 --> 00:25:10,890
journalist and honestly, I can't even
believe that she's still fucking, like,

529
00:25:10,890 --> 00:25:12,690
has a platform, but fine, whatever.

530
00:25:12,960 --> 00:25:13,470
Good for her.

531
00:25:13,950 --> 00:25:14,490
Uh, well done.

532
00:25:14,490 --> 00:25:14,550
Go.

533
00:25:14,550 --> 00:25:14,670
I mean,

534
00:25:14,670 --> 00:25:16,680
it it, it's funny that that's
the one that calls you.

535
00:25:16,680 --> 00:25:20,130
They, they trotted out John Bolton today
on CNN this morning and I was like,

536
00:25:20,130 --> 00:25:21,750
oh my God, this walrus like, again,

537
00:25:21,750 --> 00:25:23,190
but bolt, no, no.

538
00:25:23,190 --> 00:25:23,192
Time out.

539
00:25:23,197 --> 00:25:23,610
Time out.

540
00:25:23,610 --> 00:25:24,570
I respect Bolton.

541
00:25:24,900 --> 00:25:25,980
I respect consistency.

542
00:25:26,010 --> 00:25:26,220
Oh.

543
00:25:26,220 --> 00:25:26,760
Oh no.

544
00:25:26,760 --> 00:25:30,360
Look, I respect Bolton the way
I, uh, respect like Swaggy Pete.

545
00:25:32,475 --> 00:25:34,785
Like he is consistent to who he is.

546
00:25:35,115 --> 00:25:40,935
AUR tries to pretend she plays a,
a journalist on tv, but she's not.

547
00:25:40,935 --> 00:25:41,685
But anyways, it doesn't matter.

548
00:25:41,685 --> 00:25:46,995
Look, she keeps telling the guy as if
she knows, she keeps telling the guy,

549
00:25:46,995 --> 00:25:50,774
the deputy foreign minister of Iran,
sorry, I forgot the name, but she keeps

550
00:25:50,774 --> 00:25:52,035
saying, but this time is different.

551
00:25:52,095 --> 00:25:54,945
What Israel is doing is much
worse than what Saddam was doing.

552
00:25:55,274 --> 00:25:56,415
Oh my God.

553
00:25:57,285 --> 00:25:58,845
Oh, what?

554
00:25:58,845 --> 00:26:02,235
Half a million people
died from 1980 to 1988.

555
00:26:03,135 --> 00:26:07,665
The regime was barely, they had barely
the time to replace Shah's pictures

556
00:26:07,665 --> 00:26:09,585
of the walls with that of the Aya.

557
00:26:10,665 --> 00:26:13,545
You are telling me that that
eight year confrontation with the

558
00:26:13,725 --> 00:26:19,635
murderous psychopath that Sadad
Hussein was not a bigger risk than

559
00:26:19,635 --> 00:26:21,195
what Israel's doing right now.

560
00:26:21,555 --> 00:26:23,985
You lack perspective, my friends.

561
00:26:24,105 --> 00:26:28,185
If that is, if you are on that line
of, if you are the side of that

562
00:26:28,275 --> 00:26:30,465
questioning that you don't know what's
going on in the Middle East, and

563
00:26:30,465 --> 00:26:32,385
that's why that Tupac quote is for you.

564
00:26:32,805 --> 00:26:36,015
The reason I begin this with, there's war
in the streets and the war in Middle East,

565
00:26:37,005 --> 00:26:41,745
it's in a song called Changes and what
Tupac is trying to say, I see no changes.

566
00:26:41,775 --> 00:26:42,975
Everything is the same.

567
00:26:43,425 --> 00:26:45,015
My people are suffering in America.

568
00:26:45,015 --> 00:26:46,275
That's the whole point of the song.

569
00:26:46,845 --> 00:26:49,725
And he refers to war in the
Middle East there as a line.

570
00:26:49,905 --> 00:26:54,825
Because if you just woke up in June of
2025 and think what's happening in Iran

571
00:26:54,825 --> 00:27:00,375
today is somehow news to the Iranians,
then you know you need to read history.

572
00:27:00,375 --> 00:27:02,745
So this is a 46-year-old regime

573
00:27:04,785 --> 00:27:09,945
and in those 46 years they've seen
nothing but the world gang up on them.

574
00:27:11,040 --> 00:27:15,810
And I mean, look, I'm not, I'm not
standing on the side of the ALS in Iran.

575
00:27:15,840 --> 00:27:18,240
In many ways, there's a reason
the Soviet Union in America

576
00:27:18,240 --> 00:27:22,860
ganged up against you guys because
you're kind of radical, you know?

577
00:27:22,860 --> 00:27:24,750
And talk about Maori coming back.

578
00:27:24,750 --> 00:27:26,670
So yeah, everyone's gonna be against you.

579
00:27:26,670 --> 00:27:31,410
But my point is that in those 46
years, we can actually use that time

580
00:27:31,415 --> 00:27:34,290
period as source of empirical data.

581
00:27:34,830 --> 00:27:35,100
Okay.

582
00:27:35,100 --> 00:27:40,350
So how does the regime run by a
bunch of theocrats and Aya react

583
00:27:40,590 --> 00:27:44,100
when they're attacked by adversaries,
supported by the rest of the world?

584
00:27:44,100 --> 00:27:46,650
Saddam Hussein today, Benjamin Netanyahu.

585
00:27:46,830 --> 00:27:47,130
Sorry.

586
00:27:47,460 --> 00:27:48,090
Benjamin Netanyahu Today.

587
00:27:49,045 --> 00:27:50,670
Saddam Hussein in 1980s.

588
00:27:50,970 --> 00:27:54,270
What is their reaction function to this?

589
00:27:54,630 --> 00:27:57,120
Number one, the regime does not collapse.

590
00:27:57,240 --> 00:27:59,280
The regime strengthens it survives.

591
00:27:59,310 --> 00:28:03,720
It perseveres because it uses
these threats to create solidarity.

592
00:28:04,590 --> 00:28:08,910
Domestically, you know, I mean, if
you are opposing the suppression

593
00:28:08,910 --> 00:28:14,970
of women in Iran in 2022, it's
difficult to shoot you in the streets.

594
00:28:15,180 --> 00:28:15,840
But we will.

595
00:28:16,410 --> 00:28:17,790
That's what Iran says.

596
00:28:18,090 --> 00:28:23,325
But in 2025, if you oppose the
regime while Israel is bombing

597
00:28:23,325 --> 00:28:28,680
the country, you are a traitor and
therefore will be obviously executed.

598
00:28:28,950 --> 00:28:29,250
Right?

599
00:28:29,250 --> 00:28:32,550
So like that's, if, if these people
are willing to shoot people who

600
00:28:32,550 --> 00:28:38,160
protest against the hijab, lemme tell
you, they, they will definitely not

601
00:28:38,160 --> 00:28:41,490
hesitate killing someone protesting
while they're being attacked.

602
00:28:41,490 --> 00:28:42,270
So that's the first thing.

603
00:28:42,389 --> 00:28:46,020
The regime is safe, at least for
not, and as long as there are actual

604
00:28:46,020 --> 00:28:50,430
Israeli planes in the airspace of
Iran, I would bet anything that

605
00:28:50,430 --> 00:28:51,510
the regime will survive that.

606
00:28:51,720 --> 00:28:56,340
The second thing is that while,
because they are safe, they

607
00:28:56,340 --> 00:28:58,320
don't panic in these situations.

608
00:28:58,320 --> 00:29:02,160
And your point about the 86-year-old
ayatollah pointing successors and

609
00:29:02,160 --> 00:29:03,720
thus willing to meet his maker.

610
00:29:04,980 --> 00:29:06,360
I actually see it differently.

611
00:29:08,340 --> 00:29:13,020
The fact that there is now three
successors means that the regime

612
00:29:13,020 --> 00:29:18,480
is thinking long term, means that
there's enough corrupt, rich, AYA

613
00:29:18,960 --> 00:29:25,020
running around hoping that they see
a 2027 model of the Porsche Cayenne.

614
00:29:26,550 --> 00:29:30,450
And the reason I say that is that I
once overheard an intelligence officer

615
00:29:30,450 --> 00:29:35,910
tell me that Tehran has the highest per
capita cayenne ownership in the world.

616
00:29:37,680 --> 00:29:38,010
What?

617
00:29:38,010 --> 00:29:38,970
What's the point of this?

618
00:29:38,970 --> 00:29:39,420
What's the point?

619
00:29:39,480 --> 00:29:43,050
The point is that these guys are not
actually religious zealots anymore.

620
00:29:43,140 --> 00:29:45,870
They were in the 1980s
when Sadan attacked them.

621
00:29:46,020 --> 00:29:48,120
Why didn't they close
the street Tous then?

622
00:29:48,930 --> 00:29:50,190
Why did they not even attempt it?

623
00:29:50,190 --> 00:29:50,910
Why did they not?

624
00:29:50,910 --> 00:29:54,930
I don't know, like just invade
Saudi Arabia and why would they

625
00:29:54,930 --> 00:29:56,070
do it today if they didn't?

626
00:29:56,070 --> 00:30:02,340
Then today they got a lot of less
lead left in their pencil, a lot less.

627
00:30:02,970 --> 00:30:08,370
They really like that fine hand
stitched green leather inside a cayenne.

628
00:30:09,690 --> 00:30:12,780
You are telling me that this time
they're going to be more zealous

629
00:30:12,780 --> 00:30:13,830
than they were in the eighties.

630
00:30:15,090 --> 00:30:18,210
I struggle to see that, and this
is why we come to the big question,

631
00:30:18,210 --> 00:30:22,560
like if they actually cross some
red line or maybe a pink line.

632
00:30:22,560 --> 00:30:26,520
It's tough to see if it's really red, but
I think they know where the line is and

633
00:30:26,520 --> 00:30:31,920
the line is, if you mess with that 20% of
energy that transits through the strait

634
00:30:31,920 --> 00:30:36,240
of MOUs, if you look at the map, dear
listeners, Persian Gulf empties into the

635
00:30:36,240 --> 00:30:38,460
Indian Ocean through the Strait of MOUs.

636
00:30:38,760 --> 00:30:40,260
Very, very narrow choke point.

637
00:30:41,940 --> 00:30:43,770
Many say, well, they
don't have the capacity.

638
00:30:43,770 --> 00:30:47,040
If they can't defend themselves against
Israeli fighter jets, how would they,

639
00:30:47,310 --> 00:30:48,450
how would they close the straits?

640
00:30:48,810 --> 00:30:53,670
Well, there's a problem of a symmetry
here, and the problem of a symmetry is

641
00:30:53,670 --> 00:30:56,430
that they can't defend themselves against.

642
00:30:56,745 --> 00:31:00,225
Israeli fighter jets, but closing the
Straits of MOUs is relatively easy.

643
00:31:00,225 --> 00:31:03,524
You can do it with drones, you can
do it with little zodiac boats and

644
00:31:03,524 --> 00:31:05,355
dinghies like the Somali pirates did.

645
00:31:05,985 --> 00:31:10,395
You're attacking commercial defenseless
vessels through the straits.

646
00:31:10,875 --> 00:31:13,125
And so yes, they, they have
the capacity to do that.

647
00:31:13,125 --> 00:31:17,024
It's actually really difficult for
the US Navy to protect the straight,

648
00:31:17,054 --> 00:31:20,835
how do you protect it against tiny
drones and tiny zodiacs filled

649
00:31:20,835 --> 00:31:24,495
with like two suicide bombers, like
in that famous scene in Syriana.

650
00:31:25,004 --> 00:31:25,935
You know, how do you do that?

651
00:31:25,995 --> 00:31:27,375
Like how do you actually do it?

652
00:31:28,034 --> 00:31:32,564
The US would have no real game
plan against this, and therefore

653
00:31:32,895 --> 00:31:39,495
the US instead of trying to open
the street, would shift towards,

654
00:31:39,495 --> 00:31:41,715
let's turn Iran into a parking lot.

655
00:31:42,314 --> 00:31:45,645
Something that people don't understand.

656
00:31:45,735 --> 00:31:48,314
Israel is a wasp at best.

657
00:31:48,615 --> 00:31:50,054
America is a grizzly bear.

658
00:31:51,495 --> 00:31:51,825
Yeah.

659
00:31:52,125 --> 00:31:53,294
There, there's, there's a couple things.

660
00:31:53,294 --> 00:31:54,555
I, I, go ahead.

661
00:31:54,615 --> 00:31:56,264
We'll, we'll, it'll take
us, sorry, I went on rant.

662
00:31:56,330 --> 00:31:56,985
I know.

663
00:31:56,985 --> 00:31:57,254
No, no, no.

664
00:31:57,254 --> 00:31:58,905
That's what we're here
to rant to each other.

665
00:31:58,905 --> 00:32:00,524
This is like therapy for both of us.

666
00:32:00,615 --> 00:32:01,935
Um, your point about the Supreme leader.

667
00:32:01,935 --> 00:32:02,055
Yeah.

668
00:32:02,129 --> 00:32:03,075
I, I, I think you're right.

669
00:32:03,075 --> 00:32:06,105
I think it is a sign of strengthening,
strengthening the regime.

670
00:32:06,585 --> 00:32:09,105
But I also think it tells you something
about the supreme leader himself.

671
00:32:09,105 --> 00:32:11,865
I think it tells, tells you that
he might be willing to do something

672
00:32:11,865 --> 00:32:13,455
radical and take the fall for it.

673
00:32:13,845 --> 00:32:14,565
Mm. And then good point.

674
00:32:14,565 --> 00:32:18,165
His successor fair, like, okay, the,
the regime is, is in good hands.

675
00:32:18,165 --> 00:32:19,155
But, you know, he's 86.

676
00:32:19,155 --> 00:32:20,205
He's been sick anyway.

677
00:32:20,205 --> 00:32:21,315
He's been on his way out.

678
00:32:21,315 --> 00:32:23,055
Like, go down in a flame of glory, man.

679
00:32:23,055 --> 00:32:23,235
What?

680
00:32:23,235 --> 00:32:24,435
Supreme leader doesn't wanna die?

681
00:32:24,435 --> 00:32:27,524
A martyr like this is the perfect
death for that kind of person.

682
00:32:27,524 --> 00:32:28,425
If he could do something.

683
00:32:28,725 --> 00:32:31,125
The Straits of War moves has
never seemed a convincing.

684
00:32:31,695 --> 00:32:32,685
Um, strategy for me.

685
00:32:32,685 --> 00:32:35,415
And if they don't have
nuclear breakout, I dunno.

686
00:32:35,415 --> 00:32:39,465
The, the scenario that disturbs me
is, I mean, think about what Hezbollah

687
00:32:39,465 --> 00:32:40,875
did in Argentina in the nineties.

688
00:32:40,875 --> 00:32:40,935
Yeah.

689
00:32:41,504 --> 00:32:45,615
Like, there, there is probably
some nuclear material that you

690
00:32:45,615 --> 00:32:48,855
could put into some kind of dirty
bomb or series of dirty bombs.

691
00:32:48,855 --> 00:32:51,645
And maybe you can activate cells,
different parts of the west and have

692
00:32:51,645 --> 00:32:54,885
plausible deniability say that it's
the spirit of the revolution that is

693
00:32:54,885 --> 00:32:58,455
causing groups around the world to
resist the great and little Satans in

694
00:32:58,455 --> 00:33:01,784
their, you know, hearts of commerce
and decadence and things like that.

695
00:33:01,784 --> 00:33:02,085
Like that.

696
00:33:02,085 --> 00:33:02,955
That's the scenario.

697
00:33:02,955 --> 00:33:04,215
That kinda, well, can
we stop there the most?

698
00:33:04,304 --> 00:33:04,485
Yeah.

699
00:33:04,485 --> 00:33:04,815
Can we stop

700
00:33:04,815 --> 00:33:06,044
there and then we'll go back?

701
00:33:06,435 --> 00:33:10,095
Lets react to that because again,
I, I, we promise to tackle the big

702
00:33:10,095 --> 00:33:13,455
picture issues like nuclear war,
world War iii, Russia and China

703
00:33:13,455 --> 00:33:14,955
are not gonna stay with, uh, Iran.

704
00:33:14,985 --> 00:33:17,565
China's deathly afraid
of losing oil and energy.

705
00:33:18,014 --> 00:33:20,264
Your point about terrorism,
a lot of people ask me that.

706
00:33:20,325 --> 00:33:25,605
Um, I would answer, you should a hundred
percent expect terrorist activity.

707
00:33:26,565 --> 00:33:29,085
And I don't wanna be callous
about that, but I will be.

708
00:33:30,960 --> 00:33:32,685
It is like saying like,
there's a storm coming.

709
00:33:32,685 --> 00:33:34,395
I might be hit by, uh, Thunderbolt.

710
00:33:34,395 --> 00:33:35,865
You might be probabilistically.

711
00:33:35,985 --> 00:33:37,815
You're not gonna die
from a terrorist attack.

712
00:33:39,225 --> 00:33:41,145
And second of all, it's
par for the course.

713
00:33:41,355 --> 00:33:44,445
This is a regime that supported
terrorism for the last 46

714
00:33:44,445 --> 00:33:46,335
years as a tool of retaliation.

715
00:33:46,635 --> 00:33:50,745
So yes, absolutely there will be, and
they will use plausible deniability,

716
00:33:50,745 --> 00:33:57,015
as you say, it wasn't us, you know,
it was the zeal of the revolution.

717
00:33:58,155 --> 00:34:00,435
Somebody somewhere, some
cell caught a Holy Spirit.

718
00:34:00,435 --> 00:34:00,525
Mm-hmm.

719
00:34:00,765 --> 00:34:01,605
And they blew themselves up.

720
00:34:02,205 --> 00:34:04,455
Um, absolutely.

721
00:34:05,085 --> 00:34:06,705
That's that, that, that is gonna happen.

722
00:34:06,705 --> 00:34:09,495
Now to, to listeners, they
might say like, oh my God.

723
00:34:10,395 --> 00:34:12,045
Well, what hap what do you mean?

724
00:34:12,135 --> 00:34:16,215
Like, well, I think we've seen a
lot of terrorism after nine 11.

725
00:34:16,875 --> 00:34:18,585
Most of it is lone wolf attacks.

726
00:34:18,585 --> 00:34:22,905
Most of it is, you know, what
terrorists basically realized is

727
00:34:22,905 --> 00:34:26,054
they're pulling off a complex operation.

728
00:34:26,460 --> 00:34:31,949
It's complicated and there's many, now
that the Americans in the West are no

729
00:34:31,949 --> 00:34:38,250
longer letting random people take flying
lessons in Arizona, like now that we've

730
00:34:38,250 --> 00:34:44,969
become, you know, focused on that, it's
just through revolutionary, uh, process.

731
00:34:44,969 --> 00:34:49,290
It's just much easier being
somebody that executes a less

732
00:34:49,290 --> 00:34:50,610
complicated terrorist attack.

733
00:34:51,089 --> 00:34:52,225
And so what I would say, yeah.

734
00:34:52,275 --> 00:34:52,335
Go

735
00:34:52,605 --> 00:34:52,785
ahead.

736
00:34:52,785 --> 00:34:52,965
Sorry.

737
00:34:52,965 --> 00:34:55,905
The devil's advocate there is look at
what Ukraine just did to Russia, or

738
00:34:55,905 --> 00:34:57,735
look at what Israel just did to Iran.

739
00:34:57,735 --> 00:34:59,805
Like the technology has changed somewhat.

740
00:34:59,805 --> 00:34:59,955
Now.

741
00:34:59,955 --> 00:35:01,845
I, I think the problem for Iran
is it doesn't seem like their

742
00:35:01,845 --> 00:35:03,585
intelligence services are very good.

743
00:35:03,705 --> 00:35:06,615
Like they've shown themselves
to be relatively poor in terms

744
00:35:06,615 --> 00:35:08,895
of their trade craft here,
especially in how the war has gone.

745
00:35:08,895 --> 00:35:12,015
But if they have any good trade
craft whatsoever, like there are new

746
00:35:12,015 --> 00:35:15,195
technologies out there that might
allow them to sort of make a bigger

747
00:35:15,495 --> 00:35:16,545
yes, for sure indentation there.

748
00:35:16,545 --> 00:35:17,805
But that's what I keep going back to.

749
00:35:17,805 --> 00:35:21,105
Like everything I see from, I think you're
right, the regime probably survives.

750
00:35:21,495 --> 00:35:22,935
Like all, all that feels right to me.

751
00:35:22,935 --> 00:35:25,725
But the other part of this is like,
and, and Tucker Carlson got to this

752
00:35:25,725 --> 00:35:27,135
in his conversation with Ted Cruz.

753
00:35:27,135 --> 00:35:29,925
Can't believe I'm on Team Tucker
here, but he is like, you know,

754
00:35:30,315 --> 00:35:33,405
'cause he's asking Ted Cruz why he's,
why he wants to attack these guys.

755
00:35:33,405 --> 00:35:36,285
And Ted Cruz is saying out of both sides
of his mouth, oh, they're this huge

756
00:35:36,285 --> 00:35:37,815
threat and also they're incompetent.

757
00:35:37,850 --> 00:35:39,110
And Tucker's like, no, no, no.

758
00:35:39,110 --> 00:35:40,040
It can't be both.

759
00:35:40,040 --> 00:35:42,620
Like, are they the big threat or are
they completely incompetent and we

760
00:35:42,620 --> 00:35:46,339
shouldn't be wasting, um, this ordinance
on them because they can't do anything.

761
00:35:46,339 --> 00:35:49,009
And my, like, I keep on looking
in Iran and I'm like, you

762
00:35:49,009 --> 00:35:50,420
guys don't have any moves.

763
00:35:50,720 --> 00:35:53,960
Like the only move you have is a straight
of who moves and that's a suicide move.

764
00:35:53,960 --> 00:35:54,770
So, okay.

765
00:35:54,770 --> 00:35:56,000
Like, you're gonna, so we should go.

766
00:35:56,000 --> 00:35:57,259
There's the basis you're gonna fire out.

767
00:35:57,259 --> 00:35:58,220
Like it's, it looks bad.

768
00:35:58,640 --> 00:35:59,420
So we should go there.

769
00:35:59,660 --> 00:36:00,710
So that's where we should go.

770
00:36:00,770 --> 00:36:01,250
Um,

771
00:36:01,850 --> 00:36:04,970
and I, I also, I, I, well, I want to
implant two questions in your head while

772
00:36:04,970 --> 00:36:06,380
we're talking about this 'cause For sure.

773
00:36:06,410 --> 00:36:06,770
Um.

774
00:36:07,274 --> 00:36:10,095
The first is, 'cause when you
talked about China, Russia, no.

775
00:36:10,095 --> 00:36:14,355
World War ii, I also agree with that,
but I think the, the, the person who

776
00:36:14,355 --> 00:36:18,165
listens to us and wants to disagree with
us will say, but Jacob, Marco, I thought

777
00:36:18,165 --> 00:36:19,964
the cousins were on Team Multipolar.

778
00:36:19,964 --> 00:36:23,415
And the world you just described
sounds very unipolar that the United

779
00:36:23,415 --> 00:36:26,895
States can fly their bombers from
Missouri and like just, you know, do

780
00:36:26,895 --> 00:36:28,575
a, do a song and dance afterwards.

781
00:36:28,575 --> 00:36:29,205
And we did it.

782
00:36:29,384 --> 00:36:30,165
We're the greatest.

783
00:36:30,165 --> 00:36:31,305
Nobody else can hit us.

784
00:36:31,305 --> 00:36:34,995
We are so good and nobody's gonna
stop us and nobody is stopping us.

785
00:36:34,995 --> 00:36:37,185
Like that doesn't sound like
a very multipolar world.

786
00:36:37,185 --> 00:36:39,765
And then the second question I wanna
put in your head is, Iran is not the

787
00:36:39,765 --> 00:36:41,805
only country that has tried to do this.

788
00:36:42,194 --> 00:36:43,245
Uh, North Korea.

789
00:36:43,245 --> 00:36:43,395
Yeah.

790
00:36:43,424 --> 00:36:44,535
Got nuclear weapons.

791
00:36:44,540 --> 00:36:44,560
Yeah.

792
00:36:44,720 --> 00:36:44,919
Pakistan.

793
00:36:45,200 --> 00:36:45,705
Pakistan, yeah.

794
00:36:45,705 --> 00:36:46,665
Got nuclear weapons.

795
00:36:47,055 --> 00:36:48,645
Israel got nuclear weapons.

796
00:36:48,734 --> 00:36:48,915
Yeah.

797
00:36:48,915 --> 00:36:51,884
Why is it, why is it that
we're bombing these guys?

798
00:36:51,915 --> 00:36:54,841
Why didn't we bomb North Korea
before they got, 'cause they do it

799
00:36:54,846 --> 00:36:55,274
quietly.

800
00:36:57,360 --> 00:36:59,040
Because the North, the North Koreans

801
00:36:59,040 --> 00:36:59,880
were pretty loud.

802
00:36:59,880 --> 00:37:01,259
No, no, not really.

803
00:37:01,259 --> 00:37:05,610
I mean, they, they, they rushed
to it much faster and much

804
00:37:05,610 --> 00:37:06,840
more quietly than Iran did.

805
00:37:07,860 --> 00:37:12,840
And because Iran's been trying to
do it since the seventies, there's

806
00:37:12,840 --> 00:37:14,610
been way too many eyeballs on them.

807
00:37:15,660 --> 00:37:15,779
Hmm.

808
00:37:15,840 --> 00:37:18,330
And I think that, uh, that's,
that's really the problem.

809
00:37:18,330 --> 00:37:20,940
The other problem is that
North Korea had help.

810
00:37:20,970 --> 00:37:22,680
Pakistan had helped, um,

811
00:37:23,310 --> 00:37:23,970
Israel had help.

812
00:37:24,180 --> 00:37:27,509
Israel had a ton of
help, you know, thanks.

813
00:37:27,509 --> 00:37:28,050
Appetite.

814
00:37:28,050 --> 00:37:28,710
South Africa,

815
00:37:29,850 --> 00:37:30,240
was it South?

816
00:37:30,240 --> 00:37:31,110
I thought it was France.

817
00:37:31,920 --> 00:37:34,350
It was kind of both, but yeah, France.

818
00:37:34,380 --> 00:37:39,330
France and then South Africa provided the
uranium and supposedly the testing ground.

819
00:37:39,390 --> 00:37:40,560
Oh, okay.

820
00:37:40,560 --> 00:37:40,710
Good.

821
00:37:40,770 --> 00:37:41,009
Yeah.

822
00:37:41,009 --> 00:37:41,130
Great.

823
00:37:41,550 --> 00:37:42,660
So, so thanks.

824
00:37:42,660 --> 00:37:46,830
You know, like, whereas, again, the
one thing about Iran is, and you gotta

825
00:37:46,830 --> 00:37:50,940
admire this, by the way, as just a
nihilist observer of geopolitics,

826
00:37:50,940 --> 00:37:52,845
like they're on their own, like.

827
00:37:53,790 --> 00:37:55,410
They haven't really had any help.

828
00:37:56,250 --> 00:38:00,089
Russia helped them with the bush
of hair, nuclear power plant,

829
00:38:00,089 --> 00:38:02,819
which by the way has not been hit
either by Israelis and Americans.

830
00:38:03,930 --> 00:38:04,350
Probably.

831
00:38:04,350 --> 00:38:07,740
'cause they don't want to cause
Iran to retaliate against demon,

832
00:38:08,100 --> 00:38:11,879
which is the Israeli nuclear
power plant in the negative.

833
00:38:12,870 --> 00:38:17,669
But the point is, um, you know,
Russians help set up the power plant.

834
00:38:17,910 --> 00:38:22,950
The issue is that they also voted at the
UN to impose sanctions, as I said earlier.

835
00:38:22,950 --> 00:38:27,359
So Iran is, I think that's what's
holding this back, that nobody really

836
00:38:27,359 --> 00:38:28,799
wants Iran to have a nuclear weapon.

837
00:38:29,459 --> 00:38:30,779
Not Russia, not China.

838
00:38:31,049 --> 00:38:33,120
I mean, look, China's kind
of funny in all of this.

839
00:38:33,540 --> 00:38:36,240
China just wants oil to
transit the strait of ous.

840
00:38:36,330 --> 00:38:37,290
So they're actually, they don't

841
00:38:37,290 --> 00:38:37,589
care.

842
00:38:37,799 --> 00:38:40,589
No, but they're, they're actually
a factor of stability in the world.

843
00:38:40,589 --> 00:38:42,629
And nobody even gives China credit here.

844
00:38:42,629 --> 00:38:44,399
They're not encouraging Iran.

845
00:38:44,399 --> 00:38:45,629
They're not encouraging Israel.

846
00:38:45,629 --> 00:38:47,640
They're like, Hey guys,
can't we just all get along?

847
00:38:48,149 --> 00:38:51,149
You know, they're like Tupac Shakur
like, yo guys, this war in the

848
00:38:51,149 --> 00:38:52,410
streets and war in the Middle East.

849
00:38:53,100 --> 00:38:54,870
Can't a brother get some
like discounted oil?

850
00:38:54,870 --> 00:38:55,290
Come on.

851
00:38:55,740 --> 00:38:59,730
So China is not going to
go on the side of I Iran.

852
00:39:00,240 --> 00:39:03,420
And the reason it's not is
because then Saudi Arabia would

853
00:39:03,420 --> 00:39:04,650
obviously have a problem with that.

854
00:39:04,920 --> 00:39:05,250
Right?

855
00:39:05,250 --> 00:39:08,070
And, and China needs oil from
both Saudi Arabia and Iran.

856
00:39:08,490 --> 00:39:12,300
To your point about Multipolarity, uh, we
had a great discussion about Multipolarity

857
00:39:12,300 --> 00:39:17,160
couple of months ago, and what I said is
that it's very important, especially for

858
00:39:17,160 --> 00:39:22,290
Americans to understand what Multipolarity
means and what I said almost verbatim

859
00:39:22,290 --> 00:39:27,180
on this, on our show, it doesn't mean
that every country has equal power.

860
00:39:28,290 --> 00:39:31,800
The United States of America is
quantit quantitatively and qual,

861
00:39:31,830 --> 00:39:35,160
qualitatively still the most
powerful country in the world.

862
00:39:35,610 --> 00:39:40,380
It's just that that power doesn't go as
far as it did during a unipolar world.

863
00:39:40,980 --> 00:39:45,600
So yes, you can still fly B twos
outta Missouri and drop, uh, a very

864
00:39:45,600 --> 00:39:47,370
heavy ordinance anywhere in the world.

865
00:39:47,745 --> 00:39:51,045
The problem is that that's the only
way that you can compel behavior.

866
00:39:51,285 --> 00:39:52,965
Not the only, but pretty much the only.

867
00:39:53,685 --> 00:39:55,905
In other words, it doesn't
work in a unipolar world.

868
00:39:55,905 --> 00:39:57,855
You don't have to drop any bombs.

869
00:39:58,305 --> 00:40:03,165
You pick up a phone and you are like,
yo do X or else not just to your

870
00:40:03,165 --> 00:40:04,905
enemies, but also to your allies.

871
00:40:05,535 --> 00:40:08,865
So yes, you don't want to be an enemy
of the most powerful country in the

872
00:40:08,865 --> 00:40:14,175
world, but the problem for the US is
that the rest of the world is drifting

873
00:40:14,175 --> 00:40:16,545
away from just doing whatever they want.

874
00:40:16,545 --> 00:40:19,005
So I'm, this is consistent
with a multipolar world.

875
00:40:19,155 --> 00:40:23,310
In a multipolar world, in the 19th
century, in the 19th century, the United

876
00:40:23,310 --> 00:40:27,405
Kingdom could still show up with a
gunboat in your port and say, what's up?

877
00:40:27,465 --> 00:40:28,125
And they did that.

878
00:40:28,125 --> 00:40:30,945
That was come, like that happened
all the time in the 19th century.

879
00:40:31,095 --> 00:40:31,845
So did France.

880
00:40:31,845 --> 00:40:33,375
So this, this and that, like us.

881
00:40:33,765 --> 00:40:37,155
Maybe the only country that can
drop this particular bomb on Iran.

882
00:40:37,395 --> 00:40:40,515
But actually the reason the world
is multipolar, and the reason that

883
00:40:40,515 --> 00:40:43,935
this is showing that we are right,
that it is multipolar is number one,

884
00:40:43,935 --> 00:40:47,355
Israel couldn't care less what the
US was doing in those negotiations.

885
00:40:47,355 --> 00:40:48,825
They bombed Iran anyways.

886
00:40:49,305 --> 00:40:53,085
And it shows that even a country
like Israel has the capacity

887
00:40:53,085 --> 00:40:54,105
to do something like this.

888
00:40:54,195 --> 00:40:57,015
And by the way, you know who else in
the region could have done this Turkey?

889
00:40:58,665 --> 00:40:58,905
Hmm.

890
00:40:59,355 --> 00:41:02,895
So there's many, many countries,
not, sorry, not bomb fardo

891
00:41:02,925 --> 00:41:03,825
with a stealth bomber.

892
00:41:03,885 --> 00:41:09,075
No, but when you think about like Air War,
yes, there's many other countries that

893
00:41:09,075 --> 00:41:11,145
can take matters into their own heads.

894
00:41:11,235 --> 00:41:11,720
That's what it means.

895
00:41:12,735 --> 00:41:14,055
It just means multiple veto.

896
00:41:14,235 --> 00:41:17,295
But going back to your point
about terrorism, so World

897
00:41:17,295 --> 00:41:18,465
War II is not gonna happen.

898
00:41:18,465 --> 00:41:19,305
Sorry, Steven Bannon.

899
00:41:19,335 --> 00:41:20,595
I know that's your big shtick now.

900
00:41:21,075 --> 00:41:22,425
You know, like I get it.

901
00:41:22,935 --> 00:41:25,305
World War II started the
streets of Los Angeles.

902
00:41:25,305 --> 00:41:25,725
I loved it.

903
00:41:25,725 --> 00:41:29,745
By the way, I don't know if you listen
to this one, where he said like West LA

904
00:41:29,745 --> 00:41:32,145
is the like ground zero for World War ii.

905
00:41:33,404 --> 00:41:34,335
I, I didn't see that.

906
00:41:34,335 --> 00:41:37,395
Although I went at, I went at him
and Ben Shapiro on Twitter yesterday.

907
00:41:37,395 --> 00:41:38,535
'cause I was bored and I

908
00:41:38,535 --> 00:41:39,015
was just, well, he was safe.

909
00:41:39,555 --> 00:41:42,674
He was firing away at them was, you
know, Bannon's Point was like, look,

910
00:41:42,674 --> 00:41:47,085
Steven Miller, Ben Shapiro, these
guys know la they know West la You

911
00:41:47,085 --> 00:41:49,785
know, Steven Miller went to like
the middle school my son goes to and

912
00:41:49,785 --> 00:41:51,075
the high school my daughter goes to.

913
00:41:51,075 --> 00:41:55,005
So like, and they're like, west LA
is the epicenter of World War ii.

914
00:41:55,005 --> 00:41:58,335
And I'm taking a stroll
through Sunny Santa Monica.

915
00:41:58,335 --> 00:42:01,424
Like, you know, like people
jogging, walking their dog.

916
00:42:01,424 --> 00:42:02,325
And I'm like, fuck,

917
00:42:04,904 --> 00:42:05,924
it's all around us.

918
00:42:05,924 --> 00:42:09,285
This World War ii, you know,
like, oh my God, there's a cloud.

919
00:42:09,674 --> 00:42:11,145
The sun is gone.

920
00:42:11,145 --> 00:42:11,595
You know?

921
00:42:11,955 --> 00:42:12,645
Oh my God.

922
00:42:12,674 --> 00:42:15,225
Please, Steve, Steve,
man, come on our show.

923
00:42:15,225 --> 00:42:16,694
Come to West LA bro.

924
00:42:16,694 --> 00:42:20,444
Let's go, let's, let's check out
the mean streets of Santa Monica.

925
00:42:20,595 --> 00:42:23,805
Marino, Delray, Culver
City, up to no good.

926
00:42:23,805 --> 00:42:24,075
Let's do

927
00:42:24,075 --> 00:42:24,255
it.

928
00:42:24,255 --> 00:42:24,674
Live.

929
00:42:24,674 --> 00:42:25,575
Live and in person.

930
00:42:25,605 --> 00:42:26,895
Yes, live and in person.

931
00:42:26,895 --> 00:42:27,825
Like, come on man.

932
00:42:27,825 --> 00:42:28,755
Like, geez.

933
00:42:28,875 --> 00:42:29,505
Anyways, look.

934
00:42:29,910 --> 00:42:31,320
There is no World War III threat.

935
00:42:31,320 --> 00:42:32,310
Everyone can calm down.

936
00:42:32,340 --> 00:42:33,570
There is a terrorism threat.

937
00:42:34,290 --> 00:42:36,150
We should expect a spike of terrorism.

938
00:42:36,570 --> 00:42:38,670
And in a way it's like
par for the course man.

939
00:42:38,670 --> 00:42:41,940
Like you, you know, you,
you poke the hornet's nest.

940
00:42:41,940 --> 00:42:43,650
Some hornets are gonna
come out and sting you.

941
00:42:43,650 --> 00:42:48,840
Like if there is a terrorist attack by
Iran, I think, or like Iran linked sells.

942
00:42:49,380 --> 00:42:53,970
I do think that a lot of people
in the West are gonna be like, you

943
00:42:53,970 --> 00:42:55,260
know, like, well, what'd you expect?

944
00:42:55,710 --> 00:42:57,510
You expected them not
to do terrorist attacks.

945
00:42:57,690 --> 00:42:59,040
So really this boils down.

946
00:42:59,040 --> 00:43:00,690
I mean, we've been talking for 42 minutes.

947
00:43:00,690 --> 00:43:04,650
This boils down to the one thing
that actually is dramatic, and it

948
00:43:04,650 --> 00:43:07,830
does take this to the next level,
which is if you around closes the

949
00:43:07,830 --> 00:43:09,900
straits, the strait over most,

950
00:43:09,905 --> 00:43:13,770
which, which is underwhelming too,
because as we've both said, like even

951
00:43:13,770 --> 00:43:17,070
if they take it to the next level, so
then, then they get bombed into the

952
00:43:17,130 --> 00:43:19,020
15th century and then it's 15th century.

953
00:43:19,320 --> 00:43:20,580
It's like a two week, week thing.

954
00:43:20,790 --> 00:43:22,980
But you and I know this Jacob.

955
00:43:24,060 --> 00:43:24,900
Oh, we think we know this.

956
00:43:24,900 --> 00:43:26,430
We've also known many things before.

957
00:43:26,430 --> 00:43:27,090
Jacob, you, yeah,

958
00:43:27,255 --> 00:43:29,940
I, I knew that Israel couldn't
do this to Hezbollah and to Iran.

959
00:43:29,940 --> 00:43:30,510
So Yes.

960
00:43:30,510 --> 00:43:30,780
About, we've

961
00:43:30,780 --> 00:43:31,530
known many things.

962
00:43:31,530 --> 00:43:34,200
This is why our logo is two puppets.

963
00:43:34,740 --> 00:43:36,176
So just because we know it well, no,

964
00:43:36,215 --> 00:43:39,240
it's, it's, it's, it's why we are
both like, you know, uh, you know,

965
00:43:39,240 --> 00:43:41,970
the, it was Socrates who says at
the beginning of knowledge is the

966
00:43:41,970 --> 00:43:43,140
admission that you know, nothing.

967
00:43:43,140 --> 00:43:45,660
Like, so let's, let's, we're willing
to start over from scratch and say,

968
00:43:45,690 --> 00:43:48,482
eh, like, we should take that over
rather than No, no, no, no, no.

969
00:43:48,690 --> 00:43:50,610
The coming war with Japan is still coming.

970
00:43:50,615 --> 00:43:51,090
No, no, no.

971
00:43:51,090 --> 00:43:53,400
I was predicting the
collapse of China in oh nine.

972
00:43:53,640 --> 00:43:54,330
It's coming.

973
00:43:54,330 --> 00:43:55,230
It's coming right now.

974
00:43:55,230 --> 00:43:57,780
Let, I hope that the listeners
know who I'm throwing shade at.

975
00:43:57,780 --> 00:43:57,870
Right?

976
00:43:57,870 --> 00:43:58,951
But listen, listen, listen.

977
00:43:59,970 --> 00:44:03,900
I wanna, I just wanna say the
difference between us and some

978
00:44:03,900 --> 00:44:09,150
random uncle or some random dude in
your basketball league, you know?

979
00:44:09,240 --> 00:44:10,410
No, no offense, Ben.

980
00:44:10,440 --> 00:44:11,100
I love you buddy.

981
00:44:11,805 --> 00:44:15,314
The difference between us is we do this
for a living, so our view is backed

982
00:44:15,314 --> 00:44:19,035
by some empirical evidence, and we
need to give that empirical evidence.

983
00:44:19,424 --> 00:44:23,084
It doesn't mean that somebody random,
like, I got a buddy, uh, from college,

984
00:44:23,084 --> 00:44:25,334
Rafer loved this guy to death.

985
00:44:25,334 --> 00:44:27,314
I would like throw myself
in front of a bus for him.

986
00:44:27,345 --> 00:44:30,134
He works in, uh, industrial scaffolding.

987
00:44:30,339 --> 00:44:30,759
Mm-hmm.

988
00:44:30,839 --> 00:44:35,325
Just like baller, you know, and
this guy trades the VIX better

989
00:44:35,325 --> 00:44:36,495
than any hedge fund out there.

990
00:44:36,495 --> 00:44:38,955
Like, if you are running a hedge
fund right now, like you've been

991
00:44:38,955 --> 00:44:42,765
humbled by Ray for, I'm telling you,
the guy knows how to buy and sell

992
00:44:42,765 --> 00:44:44,325
the Vix like better than anyone.

993
00:44:44,325 --> 00:44:45,705
He's an industrial scaffolder.

994
00:44:45,705 --> 00:44:48,915
He goes upside down, builds
scaffolds inside like crazy

995
00:44:49,154 --> 00:44:51,104
industrial wasteland, toxics.

996
00:44:51,225 --> 00:44:55,904
I mean, he can build a scaffold
inside Fordo after it got bombed.

997
00:44:56,504 --> 00:45:00,464
And anyways, my buddy Rafer, you
know, he, he gets, he has a really

998
00:45:00,464 --> 00:45:03,555
good gut instinct for when the
world is a little too complacent.

999
00:45:04,125 --> 00:45:06,915
I'm not saying that someone
like Rafer or my buddy Ben from

1000
00:45:06,915 --> 00:45:09,495
the fantasy League has no like.

1001
00:45:10,230 --> 00:45:14,129
Business In this conversation, I'm just
saying that when you and I give a view,

1002
00:45:14,310 --> 00:45:16,770
it's at least backed by like some data.

1003
00:45:17,549 --> 00:45:19,109
So what is the data in this case?

1004
00:45:19,620 --> 00:45:27,899
The data is that in 46 years that Iran,
the regime has existed, it's never

1005
00:45:28,350 --> 00:45:30,839
truly tried to close the strait of ous.

1006
00:45:31,649 --> 00:45:33,660
And we just have to ask
the question like, but why?

1007
00:45:34,319 --> 00:45:37,140
If this is such a huge thing
that they have on the rest of the

1008
00:45:37,140 --> 00:45:38,609
world, why haven't they done this?

1009
00:45:39,899 --> 00:45:40,980
You know, why, why not?

1010
00:45:41,339 --> 00:45:47,009
And so, uh, the immediate answer that's
like an amateur would say is like, well,

1011
00:45:47,009 --> 00:45:48,629
it's never been threatened like this.

1012
00:45:48,629 --> 00:45:50,910
We just unpacked why it has
been threatened like this

1013
00:45:50,910 --> 00:45:52,170
by Saddam in the eighties.

1014
00:45:52,830 --> 00:45:55,980
Um, why you can't really
have regime change with an F

1015
00:45:55,980 --> 00:45:57,629
16, that's not gonna happen.

1016
00:45:58,140 --> 00:45:58,230
Mm-hmm.

1017
00:45:58,605 --> 00:46:00,359
So, so why?

1018
00:46:00,420 --> 00:46:03,180
And the, and, and the simple
answer is, well, their own

1019
00:46:03,180 --> 00:46:04,440
oil goes through the strait.

1020
00:46:04,440 --> 00:46:05,879
I disagree that that's an issue.

1021
00:46:06,330 --> 00:46:09,930
They could just attack Saudi
facilities across the Persian Gulf.

1022
00:46:10,290 --> 00:46:10,379
Mm-hmm.

1023
00:46:10,620 --> 00:46:11,609
You know, why not do that?

1024
00:46:12,060 --> 00:46:15,899
And the answer for this is that yes,
the retaliation against them would

1025
00:46:15,899 --> 00:46:18,810
be so total and they have no ability.

1026
00:46:18,810 --> 00:46:24,390
Like the rest of the world is not gonna
be concerned about pushing vessels

1027
00:46:24,390 --> 00:46:25,890
through the strait, as they said.

1028
00:46:25,890 --> 00:46:26,850
That's gonna be tough to do.

1029
00:46:28,379 --> 00:46:34,170
And precisely because it's difficult to
interdict little tiny dinghy zodiac boats.

1030
00:46:34,649 --> 00:46:38,670
Precisely because that is not
really in the arsenal of the west.

1031
00:46:39,690 --> 00:46:46,500
The west Saudi Arabia, Israel, everybody
would just turn Iran into a parking lot.

1032
00:46:47,250 --> 00:46:50,940
In a way it's a nuclear
option for the regime.

1033
00:46:51,540 --> 00:46:53,580
It's, it, it is their nuclear option.

1034
00:46:54,210 --> 00:46:58,259
And, and except they only have one
nuke, they can deploy it in the strait.

1035
00:46:58,950 --> 00:47:03,390
They close that thing and then they get
turned into a parking lot and there's

1036
00:47:03,390 --> 00:47:05,339
nothing they can do if they can't stop.

1037
00:47:05,955 --> 00:47:08,955
Israeli F sixteens, which
have very little ordinance.

1038
00:47:09,645 --> 00:47:10,694
Now, this is a fighter jet.

1039
00:47:10,694 --> 00:47:12,615
This isn't a bomber for a reason.

1040
00:47:13,305 --> 00:47:17,985
If they can't prevent F sixteens
from bombing, they cannot prevent the

1041
00:47:17,985 --> 00:47:21,285
strategic might of the United States
of America, which is not like America's

1042
00:47:21,285 --> 00:47:22,725
not gonna use B two bombers, guys.

1043
00:47:23,265 --> 00:47:28,065
It will throw everything at
them 1950s, 1960s bobbers.

1044
00:47:28,065 --> 00:47:31,845
The US will absolutely turn
and, and it will be punitive.

1045
00:47:31,845 --> 00:47:35,625
Just like the Air War
against Serbia was punitive.

1046
00:47:36,194 --> 00:47:37,575
It wasn't tactical.

1047
00:47:37,634 --> 00:47:38,985
It wasn't even strategic.

1048
00:47:39,525 --> 00:47:43,605
Once the US realized that SLO Demi
SVI was not going to withdraw the

1049
00:47:43,605 --> 00:47:48,075
troops out of Kosovo and that he
wasn't playing by the rules of war,

1050
00:47:48,075 --> 00:47:52,575
he wasn't turning on his air defense
systems, the US proceeded to degrade

1051
00:47:52,634 --> 00:47:56,055
Serbia's industrial economic capacity.

1052
00:47:57,195 --> 00:47:58,875
This is what would happen to Iran as well.

1053
00:47:58,875 --> 00:48:02,505
And so this is why we have the view
that we have for those of you listening,

1054
00:48:02,505 --> 00:48:07,005
because we are seeped in the knowledge of
the region and history and the behavior

1055
00:48:07,005 --> 00:48:08,865
of Tehran over the last 46 years.

1056
00:48:09,135 --> 00:48:13,215
Now, I completely concede that my
buddy fer could still crush us, right?

1057
00:48:13,215 --> 00:48:16,605
Because hey, sometimes a
fresh pair of eyes is better.

1058
00:48:16,695 --> 00:48:19,125
They see something from a different
perspective and say, yeah, but

1059
00:48:19,125 --> 00:48:20,445
this time I think is different.

1060
00:48:20,475 --> 00:48:25,695
And ultimately, if you are an investor
right now, you like the risk as

1061
00:48:25,695 --> 00:48:31,575
symmetry is skewed towards higher
Vix at, at the very least, and over

1062
00:48:31,575 --> 00:48:34,545
the next couple of days, perhaps
even higher oil prices from here.

1063
00:48:34,545 --> 00:48:37,185
I mean, obviously we're all
waiting for Iran's retaliation.

1064
00:48:37,185 --> 00:48:38,595
It's gonna come oil prices spike.

1065
00:48:38,985 --> 00:48:42,225
But I do think that at some point
there's going to be an epic opportunity

1066
00:48:42,615 --> 00:48:47,055
to fade all of that because I
think that there is a gravitational

1067
00:48:47,055 --> 00:48:49,485
pool almost by like a giant star.

1068
00:48:49,485 --> 00:48:53,775
You can't see here is like a
black hole that you cannot see.

1069
00:48:54,569 --> 00:49:02,310
That's pulling Iran's retaliation and
behavior towards a set of standardized

1070
00:49:02,730 --> 00:49:05,580
moves that it's done over 46 years.

1071
00:49:05,580 --> 00:49:08,730
And that gravitational pull that you
don't see, that black hole that, that

1072
00:49:08,730 --> 00:49:13,890
most people can't identify is that
like, bro, if they do this, they're

1073
00:49:13,890 --> 00:49:16,110
going to face the might of the us.

1074
00:49:16,110 --> 00:49:19,529
And before I stop my rant, I
just wanna say one more thing.

1075
00:49:19,529 --> 00:49:22,650
I know I've said it many, many times in
this show, but for those of you who are

1076
00:49:22,650 --> 00:49:27,180
listening to this for the first time,
go on Wikipedia and read about, no, no.

1077
00:49:27,420 --> 00:49:28,589
Wikipedia is a great source.

1078
00:49:28,589 --> 00:49:31,740
Like if you're just like an an
amateur geopolitical, you're just

1079
00:49:31,745 --> 00:49:32,850
interested, like what are you gonna do?

1080
00:49:32,850 --> 00:49:34,650
You know, you can't read books
and stuff, you don't have time.

1081
00:49:34,650 --> 00:49:35,520
You have a busy life.

1082
00:49:35,520 --> 00:49:38,430
You're on the show to try to figure
out what to read on Wikipedia.

1083
00:49:38,430 --> 00:49:41,850
Well, here's one operation,
praying mantis critical.

1084
00:49:42,630 --> 00:49:45,960
So when I said that Iran has never
attempted to close the straits,

1085
00:49:45,960 --> 00:49:47,370
that's not necessarily correct.

1086
00:49:48,509 --> 00:49:52,200
They did try very, very gingerly
to dip their toes into this.

1087
00:49:52,755 --> 00:49:53,355
Idea.

1088
00:49:53,625 --> 00:49:55,395
They mined the strait a little bit.

1089
00:49:55,395 --> 00:49:57,585
One of those mines hit an American vessel.

1090
00:49:57,825 --> 00:50:01,665
The United States of America in the
next 72 hours sunk their Navy and

1091
00:50:01,665 --> 00:50:05,714
attacked their energy facilities
on Kag Island to the point where

1092
00:50:06,435 --> 00:50:10,785
the International Court of Justice
actually sided with Iran many years

1093
00:50:10,785 --> 00:50:14,565
later saying that the US was punitive
and unproportional in their reaction.

1094
00:50:14,865 --> 00:50:16,545
And America was like, fuck yes, we were.

1095
00:50:16,725 --> 00:50:17,415
And do it again.

1096
00:50:17,415 --> 00:50:18,645
And you'll see what we'll do next up.

1097
00:50:19,365 --> 00:50:20,415
I'm, I'm glad you brought that up.

1098
00:50:20,415 --> 00:50:23,265
'cause this is, this is one of the things
that's bothering me, like in, in the

1099
00:50:23,265 --> 00:50:28,140
category of things that I don't know,
um, how is it that Israel and the United

1100
00:50:28,140 --> 00:50:31,575
States can, A, do what they've already
done to Iran and b to your point, if

1101
00:50:31,575 --> 00:50:35,055
they close the straight, like, you know,
bomb them into the medieval period back

1102
00:50:35,055 --> 00:50:38,295
to when, you know, the Iranians were
sipping Shiraz and writing poetry and

1103
00:50:38,295 --> 00:50:39,765
inventing algebra and things like that.

1104
00:50:40,035 --> 00:50:41,444
Like how can they do that?

1105
00:50:41,444 --> 00:50:43,875
And yet they can't stop the Houthis.

1106
00:50:45,135 --> 00:50:47,865
Like, you know, yeah, I An
answer just six weeks, weeks ago.

1107
00:50:47,880 --> 00:50:48,075
No, no.

1108
00:50:48,075 --> 00:50:49,305
We were talking about like, no.

1109
00:50:49,305 --> 00:50:49,605
Easy.

1110
00:50:49,610 --> 00:50:49,760
Yeah.

1111
00:50:49,760 --> 00:50:50,200
Go, go, go.

1112
00:50:50,200 --> 00:50:52,185
Easy, easy, easy answer to that question.

1113
00:50:52,185 --> 00:50:57,375
My friend and I, I believe I already said
it on this podcast a couple of weeks ago.

1114
00:50:58,215 --> 00:51:02,535
The Houthis are perfectly
comfortable living on tattoo.

1115
00:51:05,490 --> 00:51:06,890
Yemen is tattoo.

1116
00:51:08,080 --> 00:51:10,875
For those of you who are not
fans of Star Wars, uh, I'm not

1117
00:51:10,875 --> 00:51:12,165
going to clarify that statement.

1118
00:51:12,165 --> 00:51:14,205
You should fucking watch Star Wars.

1119
00:51:14,715 --> 00:51:15,795
Another thing to Wikipedia,

1120
00:51:16,065 --> 00:51:16,605
you know what I mean?

1121
00:51:17,085 --> 00:51:23,520
The Houthis are fa perfectly
comfortable with being in tattooing.

1122
00:51:23,660 --> 00:51:24,885
The Iranians are not.

1123
00:51:26,070 --> 00:51:30,000
Yeah, but it's, it's not even like I, I I
hear you on that, but it's not even that.

1124
00:51:30,000 --> 00:51:34,290
It's, it's, it almost seems like
the Houthis got more shots on goal

1125
00:51:34,290 --> 00:51:37,530
against us Air assets that were
pummeling them than the Iranians did.

1126
00:51:37,710 --> 00:51:40,560
I mean, if, if you listen to Hegseth
and, and not just Heg, I mean,

1127
00:51:40,560 --> 00:51:42,540
hegseth was like way over the top.

1128
00:51:42,540 --> 00:51:44,610
It was, it was gross,
the level of propaganda.

1129
00:51:44,640 --> 00:51:47,910
But the four star who stood next to
him, who spoke after him, who was like

1130
00:51:47,910 --> 00:51:52,470
your typical American military officer,
like straight lace, like very honest,

1131
00:51:52,470 --> 00:51:53,700
empirical data to back everything.

1132
00:51:53,760 --> 00:51:56,400
He was basically like, yeah,
they didn't even see us coming.

1133
00:51:56,430 --> 00:51:59,190
Like, they didn't get a shot off,
like, wait a minute, decoy stuff.

1134
00:51:59,190 --> 00:52:02,040
And we knocked out some defenses
and like, they didn't get what,

1135
00:52:02,040 --> 00:52:03,120
like they had no clue we were there.

1136
00:52:03,120 --> 00:52:05,820
I think, whereas the Houthis, like
the Wall Street Journal was reporting

1137
00:52:05,820 --> 00:52:08,760
that, like the Houthis were like close
to taking down drones and like getting

1138
00:52:08,760 --> 00:52:10,680
shots off on, but, but US assets.

1139
00:52:10,980 --> 00:52:11,310
Okay.

1140
00:52:11,310 --> 00:52:13,740
But, but drones versus
stealth bombers is different.

1141
00:52:14,130 --> 00:52:16,290
Stealth bombers fly very, very high.

1142
00:52:16,440 --> 00:52:19,410
The drones can be seen like with
your open eyes and you can shoot them

1143
00:52:19,410 --> 00:52:21,780
with the, you know, like, I mean it's
obviously I'm making it simple, but.

1144
00:52:22,320 --> 00:52:23,610
I just don't think it's different.

1145
00:52:23,670 --> 00:52:24,450
It's the same.

1146
00:52:24,690 --> 00:52:25,650
It's not the same thing.

1147
00:52:25,680 --> 00:52:30,090
And the US did not commit as many
assets, nor did it like drop.

1148
00:52:30,090 --> 00:52:31,710
Why would you drop this ordinance?

1149
00:52:31,740 --> 00:52:33,960
Why would you drop the
Busters and the Houthis?

1150
00:52:34,980 --> 00:52:38,790
The Houthis are very
difficult to impose paint on.

1151
00:52:39,360 --> 00:52:42,900
You know, the Houthis are like the
homeless guy in the alley with a knife.

1152
00:52:43,650 --> 00:52:44,850
No offense to the Houthis, by the way.

1153
00:52:44,850 --> 00:52:45,600
Don't come after me.

1154
00:52:45,600 --> 00:52:46,320
I love you guys.

1155
00:52:46,320 --> 00:52:47,340
You know, go Sam.

1156
00:52:47,340 --> 00:52:49,230
People like of tattoo.

1157
00:52:49,860 --> 00:52:51,030
You guys are fucking awesome.

1158
00:52:51,060 --> 00:52:55,230
And you know, I think George Lucas
himself like rebuild the story of

1159
00:52:55,230 --> 00:52:58,710
the Sam people in the subsequent,
uh, star Wars series because they

1160
00:52:58,950 --> 00:53:00,600
also have feelings and families.

1161
00:53:00,660 --> 00:53:02,610
And we should think about
that too, by the way.

1162
00:53:03,270 --> 00:53:04,710
People have no idea
what I'm talking about.

1163
00:53:04,800 --> 00:53:05,820
They didn't watch Star Wars.

1164
00:53:06,090 --> 00:53:09,180
And honestly, I don't want you as a
listener, if you didn't watch Star Wars.

1165
00:53:09,600 --> 00:53:10,830
God, anyways.

1166
00:53:10,830 --> 00:53:11,460
Look or do.

1167
00:53:11,460 --> 00:53:11,520
Yeah.

1168
00:53:12,930 --> 00:53:14,640
Wait, here's the difference.

1169
00:53:15,030 --> 00:53:17,430
You face a homeless guy
in the alley with a knife.

1170
00:53:17,520 --> 00:53:18,600
Why are you afraid of him?

1171
00:53:19,230 --> 00:53:20,580
Because he's got nothing to lose.

1172
00:53:20,940 --> 00:53:22,589
He's a homeless guy in
the alley with a knife.

1173
00:53:23,609 --> 00:53:28,650
So that's why it's difficult Jacob
to like, when you say that America is

1174
00:53:28,650 --> 00:53:33,960
going to push Iran into the medieval
age, Yemen is kind of already there and

1175
00:53:33,960 --> 00:53:35,790
that's why the Houthis just don't care.

1176
00:53:36,029 --> 00:53:38,490
Their pain tolerance is infinite.

1177
00:53:38,549 --> 00:53:39,180
That's the point.

1178
00:53:39,990 --> 00:53:44,009
Iran and the people in Iran, and
particularly the regime that has

1179
00:53:44,009 --> 00:53:47,100
enriched itself through corruption
and the sanctions and everything else,

1180
00:53:47,400 --> 00:53:51,750
the fact that their Porsche, cayenne
per capita ownership is the highest

1181
00:53:51,750 --> 00:53:52,950
in the world, tells you something.

1182
00:53:53,730 --> 00:53:55,980
This is a regime that
does have a lot to lose.

1183
00:53:56,009 --> 00:53:57,690
They don't want to live on tattooing.

1184
00:53:58,799 --> 00:53:59,910
And so that's the difference.

1185
00:53:59,910 --> 00:54:02,790
I think it's very difficult for the
United States of America to conduct

1186
00:54:02,790 --> 00:54:04,379
punitive airstrikes against Yemen.

1187
00:54:04,379 --> 00:54:06,779
Saudi Arabia found that out
during their war with Yemen.

1188
00:54:06,779 --> 00:54:09,509
The Houthis are like just whatever,
like, oh, you're gonna bomb us.

1189
00:54:09,509 --> 00:54:09,960
Cool.

1190
00:54:10,049 --> 00:54:11,279
I'm gonna go back to the cave.

1191
00:54:11,520 --> 00:54:14,970
No, I don't mean the cave where like I go.

1192
00:54:14,970 --> 00:54:17,100
When you bought me, I mean my home.

1193
00:54:17,339 --> 00:54:19,710
I'm perfectly comfortable
with this existence.

1194
00:54:20,475 --> 00:54:22,125
I'm perfectly comfortable
with its existence.

1195
00:54:22,125 --> 00:54:24,045
Like, like this is what Yemen is like.

1196
00:54:24,045 --> 00:54:25,424
I'm, this is it.

1197
00:54:25,755 --> 00:54:26,505
It's tattooing.

1198
00:54:27,315 --> 00:54:27,464
Yeah.

1199
00:54:27,495 --> 00:54:30,440
Whereas, yeah, and then maybe they're,
they're all chewing Kat too, so maybe

1200
00:54:30,440 --> 00:54:31,665
they're just all like, yeah, that's,

1201
00:54:31,665 --> 00:54:34,815
you know, maybe we should be doing
some of these podcasts on Kat too.

1202
00:54:34,815 --> 00:54:38,505
Maybe that will make us like less
like, but look, my point is that

1203
00:54:38,505 --> 00:54:42,165
Iran doesn't have that option and
uh, that's what the difference is.

1204
00:54:42,165 --> 00:54:46,424
Their pain tolerance is surprisingly a lot
higher, one could say, but that's because

1205
00:54:46,424 --> 00:54:52,485
Iran is a sophisticated, educated, modern,
technologically advanced country that

1206
00:54:52,485 --> 00:54:55,305
doesn't want to become tattoo overnight.

1207
00:54:55,830 --> 00:54:57,540
Whereas Yemen is tattooing.

1208
00:54:58,230 --> 00:54:58,470
Yeah.

1209
00:54:59,100 --> 00:54:59,460
Okay.

1210
00:54:59,940 --> 00:55:03,840
Well, here, here, let's, let's, uh, let's
round out on some long-term thoughts here.

1211
00:55:03,870 --> 00:55:06,390
'cause I've been, I've been playing
around with this notion that, um,

1212
00:55:06,870 --> 00:55:10,080
maybe Donald Trump would've been the
perfect unipolar president, but he's

1213
00:55:10,080 --> 00:55:12,600
actually the wrong multipolar president.

1214
00:55:12,600 --> 00:55:15,990
And that somebody like Bill Clinton or
Barack Obama, they were bad unipolar

1215
00:55:15,990 --> 00:55:18,750
presidents, but they would've been
really good multipolar presidents.

1216
00:55:18,840 --> 00:55:21,600
And I say this because
it seems to me that.

1217
00:55:21,975 --> 00:55:26,535
This is the, the US strikes on Iran
are part of the general pattern

1218
00:55:26,595 --> 00:55:30,375
of Trump foreign policy, which is
short-term wins for long-term losses

1219
00:55:30,674 --> 00:55:33,884
because I, I don't think there are
actually going to be huge implications.

1220
00:55:33,915 --> 00:55:35,865
Like I, I don't think they're
gonna close the straight, if they

1221
00:55:35,865 --> 00:55:37,185
do, it won't last for a long time.

1222
00:55:37,185 --> 00:55:38,685
It seems pretty clear
they don't have a nuke.

1223
00:55:38,685 --> 00:55:40,484
If they did, they would've
beared their teeth by now.

1224
00:55:40,484 --> 00:55:41,564
So maybe that doesn't happen.

1225
00:55:41,774 --> 00:55:43,035
Well least they would've exploded

1226
00:55:43,035 --> 00:55:43,785
it to show

1227
00:55:43,785 --> 00:55:47,685
they have Yeah, like something like for,
you know, you've, you've got bros on

1228
00:55:47,685 --> 00:55:51,225
Twitter, like, you know, reading Seism
McGrath in Iran being like, is this it?

1229
00:55:51,225 --> 00:55:51,615
It's like, no.

1230
00:55:51,615 --> 00:55:54,435
If it was, it like, you know, they,
they did their movie thing about this

1231
00:55:54,435 --> 00:55:56,625
is gonna be remembered for centuries
and it was a couple of missiles.

1232
00:55:56,625 --> 00:55:57,944
Like, nice, okay, great.

1233
00:55:57,944 --> 00:56:00,015
Like there's, there's some cool
missiles, but they're not there.

1234
00:56:01,320 --> 00:56:04,320
But the point being, um, you
know, the Trump administration

1235
00:56:04,320 --> 00:56:05,610
is taking short-term wins.

1236
00:56:05,880 --> 00:56:08,220
So yes, it get, it's probably
gonna get short-term wins and

1237
00:56:08,220 --> 00:56:10,680
trade deals with European countries
and China and things like that.

1238
00:56:10,680 --> 00:56:13,410
But in the long run, you've basically
just ensured that Europe doesn't want to

1239
00:56:13,410 --> 00:56:17,070
be dependent on you anymore and becomes
probably a competitor down the road.

1240
00:56:17,610 --> 00:56:20,490
Do you think that there is something
to the, to the notion that, you know,

1241
00:56:20,490 --> 00:56:24,180
your China, your Russias, even your
Europes is looking at US behavior here.

1242
00:56:24,180 --> 00:56:27,270
And even as some of these countries are
clapping and saying, thanks for taking out

1243
00:56:27,270 --> 00:56:31,470
the trash, they're also saying, man, this
is the us Like they could do this to me.

1244
00:56:31,890 --> 00:56:33,450
Like, they could do this to anyone.

1245
00:56:33,450 --> 00:56:35,700
They're gonna say two weeks and then
they're gonna turn on a bombing.

1246
00:56:35,700 --> 00:56:36,810
Like, we don't trust the us.

1247
00:56:36,810 --> 00:56:41,160
Or do you think that that's too
weeny, you know, liberal of a

1248
00:56:41,160 --> 00:56:43,020
position and it's like, no, no, no.

1249
00:56:43,020 --> 00:56:44,790
Like, like nobody's gonna think that.

1250
00:56:44,790 --> 00:56:47,130
It's just gonna be like, Hey,
this is, this is the world that

1251
00:56:47,130 --> 00:56:49,170
we're in right now in the United
States is doing what it's gonna do.

1252
00:56:49,170 --> 00:56:51,180
And like, there's mad respect
there and everybody else is

1253
00:56:51,180 --> 00:56:52,320
gonna go do their own thing.

1254
00:56:52,320 --> 00:56:53,850
Like, where do you, where do you fall on

1255
00:56:53,880 --> 00:56:54,000
that?

1256
00:56:54,000 --> 00:56:56,700
The multipolar world is the world where
everyone's gonna do what they're gonna do.

1257
00:56:56,700 --> 00:56:58,380
You know, that's why it's dangerous world.

1258
00:56:59,520 --> 00:57:02,460
But it's also a world where,
uh, because normative and

1259
00:57:02,460 --> 00:57:04,770
ideological issues don't matter.

1260
00:57:04,950 --> 00:57:06,090
Morality doesn't matter.

1261
00:57:06,090 --> 00:57:07,020
That makes it safer.

1262
00:57:07,290 --> 00:57:10,710
I have to say, and this, this
obviously shows that I'm a

1263
00:57:10,710 --> 00:57:13,290
realist, a brutal realist.

1264
00:57:13,470 --> 00:57:18,630
Uh, and many will disagree with me, but I
would say that Donald Trump is including

1265
00:57:18,630 --> 00:57:20,970
President Trump and including and
including the Supreme leader because

1266
00:57:20,970 --> 00:57:24,300
this is a very religious, like,
ideological conflict on both sides.

1267
00:57:24,300 --> 00:57:24,750
At least.

1268
00:57:24,750 --> 00:57:26,190
At least in the way
they're talking about it.

1269
00:57:26,190 --> 00:57:27,030
Not really like let go.

1270
00:57:27,360 --> 00:57:30,330
No, I would disagree, Jacob, because
if it was President Trump wouldn't

1271
00:57:30,330 --> 00:57:32,850
say things like, look, we bombed Ford.

1272
00:57:32,850 --> 00:57:34,260
Oh, and now it's over.

1273
00:57:34,620 --> 00:57:35,670
It's time for peace.

1274
00:57:36,180 --> 00:57:39,960
So I actually think that Donald Trump is
the perfect president for a multipolar

1275
00:57:39,960 --> 00:57:44,940
world, and I would applaud him in many
ways on the way he has pivoted the

1276
00:57:44,940 --> 00:57:48,870
US towards a much more Machiavellian
way of thinking about foreign policy.

1277
00:57:48,870 --> 00:57:52,530
Now, before I get accused of being callous
and stuff, lemme just break it down.

1278
00:57:52,950 --> 00:57:56,640
The reason that I don't think Bill Clinton
would've been good in this situation, and

1279
00:57:56,640 --> 00:57:58,290
definitely Joe Biden would not have been.

1280
00:57:58,995 --> 00:58:04,515
Because every time a moralistic liberal
interventionist president who's in charge,

1281
00:58:04,845 --> 00:58:06,315
they don't know when to land the plane.

1282
00:58:07,875 --> 00:58:15,615
Once you paint a regime as immoral, you
need to take it all the way with them.

1283
00:58:15,795 --> 00:58:17,385
You cannot sit down and negotiate.

1284
00:58:18,465 --> 00:58:23,805
You need an immoral, immoral,
immoral foreign policy.

1285
00:58:24,495 --> 00:58:27,165
In a multipolar world,
that's what's a requirement.

1286
00:58:27,765 --> 00:58:32,175
You cannot choose what country is good,
what country is evil, because if you

1287
00:58:32,175 --> 00:58:36,585
do, then how do you stop having an
antagonistic relationship with them?

1288
00:58:36,585 --> 00:58:38,505
How do you stop, sit
down and say, okay, cool.

1289
00:58:38,595 --> 00:58:39,645
Look, we bombed Florida.

1290
00:58:40,425 --> 00:58:41,775
You know, you know what we can do.

1291
00:58:41,775 --> 00:58:46,275
Now we understand that, uh, you
know, we don't want regime change.

1292
00:58:46,275 --> 00:58:50,685
Look what President Trump said after
bombing, uh, the u uh, Iran, and

1293
00:58:50,685 --> 00:58:53,805
then he said, repeated it today,
that they don't want regime change.

1294
00:58:53,805 --> 00:58:57,075
That is something that liberal
interventionists cannot do.

1295
00:58:58,215 --> 00:59:01,905
If you have a moralistic compass,
how do you stop yourself?

1296
00:59:02,355 --> 00:59:04,095
How do you say, this is enough?

1297
00:59:04,125 --> 00:59:05,085
We've done enough.

1298
00:59:05,325 --> 00:59:05,985
You can't do that.

1299
00:59:05,985 --> 00:59:09,315
You have to say, how many
times have we invoked Hitler?

1300
00:59:10,845 --> 00:59:16,245
How many times have American presidents
invoked Hitler as an analogy for some

1301
00:59:16,485 --> 00:59:19,845
leader, they don't like, whether it's
neocons or liberal interventionism.

1302
00:59:20,025 --> 00:59:24,135
And that's where neocons, neoconservatives
and liberal interventionists are the same.

1303
00:59:24,645 --> 00:59:27,705
They couch everything in the terms
of morality of good and evil.

1304
00:59:28,065 --> 00:59:36,765
And so if some country is, you know,
is going against American interests,

1305
00:59:37,155 --> 00:59:41,535
you cannot couch it in the, in the
words of real politic of realism.

1306
00:59:41,535 --> 00:59:42,945
You couch it in terms of morality.

1307
00:59:42,945 --> 00:59:47,475
But once you do that, once you step into
that world, how do you slow yourself down?

1308
00:59:47,865 --> 00:59:49,365
How do you stop bombing a rod?

1309
00:59:49,365 --> 00:59:52,755
How do you decide that this was enough and
now it's time for negotiations and peace?

1310
00:59:53,235 --> 00:59:56,115
So I would say that Donald Trump
is a product of his environment.

1311
00:59:57,464 --> 01:00:01,964
I would say that Barack Obama tried
to do this, but he was not consistent.

1312
01:00:01,964 --> 01:00:04,995
I would, as I've said before, I
think Obama and Trump are similar

1313
01:00:05,415 --> 01:00:09,044
in that both of them recognized
that the world is multipolar.

1314
01:00:09,345 --> 01:00:14,415
I just think he was tougher for Obama
because he surrounded himself with

1315
01:00:14,415 --> 01:00:18,435
liberal interventionists who are very
liberal, very moralistic, very normative,

1316
01:00:18,580 --> 01:00:21,134
and they would always kind of say
like, that's what happened in Libya.

1317
01:00:21,285 --> 01:00:26,294
Look, Gaddafi is a bad guy, but he gave
up his chemical and biological weapon

1318
01:00:26,294 --> 01:00:28,064
program for guarantees of stability.

1319
01:00:28,544 --> 01:00:30,495
Was bombing him the right message to make?

1320
01:00:30,495 --> 01:00:35,084
Well, first of all, obviously not as
the Italians warned, the west collapse

1321
01:00:35,084 --> 01:00:39,705
of Libya would lead to a migration
crisis in Europe, and they were right.

1322
01:00:39,854 --> 01:00:41,535
So Italy was opposed to this.

1323
01:00:42,165 --> 01:00:46,529
Barack Obama understood these risks,
but he let France in the United

1324
01:00:46,529 --> 01:00:48,254
Kingdom take the lead in 2011.

1325
01:00:48,555 --> 01:00:51,524
So he wasn't, I think, brutal enough.

1326
01:00:51,854 --> 01:00:54,495
He wasn't realist enough,
although he tried to.

1327
01:00:55,110 --> 01:01:00,000
Present himself as a realist because
his enemy on foreign policy was neocons.

1328
01:01:00,600 --> 01:01:03,960
President Trump's enemy on
foreign policy is both neocons

1329
01:01:03,960 --> 01:01:05,340
and liberal interventionists.

1330
01:01:05,610 --> 01:01:10,650
And so I would say that he's a perfect
president actually for a multipolar era.

1331
01:01:10,650 --> 01:01:17,160
Now, we will see, right, is he able to
conduct a limited strike against Iran?

1332
01:01:18,660 --> 01:01:21,450
It will require him to take
the retaliation straight in the

1333
01:01:21,450 --> 01:01:26,565
face like a man and then not do
anything in, in re taliation.

1334
01:01:26,910 --> 01:01:31,110
In other words, he cannot get
sucked in by idiot journalists and

1335
01:01:31,170 --> 01:01:37,170
tackle trade talk and Twitterati
saying that weak for not responding

1336
01:01:37,170 --> 01:01:38,910
to something Iran is about to do.

1337
01:01:40,470 --> 01:01:45,420
And to his credit, he showed that
consistency in January of 2020.

1338
01:01:45,450 --> 01:01:49,380
He, he, he, he orders the assassination,
which was illegal by International Law

1339
01:01:49,380 --> 01:01:54,360
of General Soleimani, Iran freaks out
bombs, some American basis in Iraq.

1340
01:01:54,885 --> 01:02:01,875
At that point, a Bill Clinton, a George
Bush, a Joe Biden, a Hillary Clinton.

1341
01:02:01,875 --> 01:02:06,435
And yes, even Barack Obama does a lot
more in retaliation because they have to,

1342
01:02:06,435 --> 01:02:08,625
because they feel compelled by morality.

1343
01:02:08,985 --> 01:02:11,895
Our troops were endangered, and
President Trump said, of course,

1344
01:02:11,895 --> 01:02:13,125
our troops were endangered.

1345
01:02:13,635 --> 01:02:15,140
That's par for the course.

1346
01:02:16,215 --> 01:02:18,405
I understand why Iran had to retaliate.

1347
01:02:18,435 --> 01:02:21,855
I consider this matter over,
that's almost verbatim, the tweet

1348
01:02:21,855 --> 01:02:24,735
he sent after Iran retaliated.

1349
01:02:24,885 --> 01:02:26,505
That is a multipolar president.

1350
01:02:27,555 --> 01:02:31,155
You know, that is somebody who can have,
and this is why most commentators right

1351
01:02:31,155 --> 01:02:36,315
now, Jacob, and I know you also disagree
as I do, but most commentators see this as

1352
01:02:36,315 --> 01:02:40,605
a slippery slope towards a confrontation
because you're almost counting on this

1353
01:02:40,605 --> 01:02:45,615
reflexive need for America to couch
their enemies in morality normative

1354
01:02:45,615 --> 01:02:49,815
like, so the reason this is a slippery
slope is now we're gonna build a case

1355
01:02:49,845 --> 01:02:51,585
that Iran is evil and blah, blah, blah.

1356
01:02:52,965 --> 01:02:59,925
Immoral, immoral President
does not have to couch the Iran

1357
01:02:59,930 --> 01:03:01,665
as, as that kind of an enemy.

1358
01:03:01,695 --> 01:03:04,215
He can say things like,
I respect Iranians.

1359
01:03:04,215 --> 01:03:05,415
They're hard negotiators.

1360
01:03:05,595 --> 01:03:06,795
They should have taken my deal.

1361
01:03:06,795 --> 01:03:07,365
They didn't.

1362
01:03:07,575 --> 01:03:08,805
I had to punch 'em in the mouth.

1363
01:03:09,015 --> 01:03:10,545
I understand why they're retaliating.

1364
01:03:11,085 --> 01:03:12,735
I'm ready to talk when they are.

1365
01:03:12,915 --> 01:03:15,735
And if they cross our red lines,
we turn them into a parking lot.

1366
01:03:16,305 --> 01:03:19,125
Well, yeah, and this is why,
like, it's not a slippery slope

1367
01:03:19,125 --> 01:03:20,565
because they can't respond.

1368
01:03:20,865 --> 01:03:21,765
There's no way.

1369
01:03:21,765 --> 01:03:25,935
Like if they had, if, if they nuked New
York City, but the problems Jacob or if

1370
01:03:25,935 --> 01:03:29,445
they like blocked the straight for moose
and they could keep it closed for a month,

1371
01:03:29,445 --> 01:03:32,445
like Yeah, but I don't think they've
got, I don't think they have any cards.

1372
01:03:32,475 --> 01:03:34,905
But see, Jacob, you're looking
at this as like a objective

1373
01:03:34,905 --> 01:03:36,045
analyst and God bless you.

1374
01:03:36,045 --> 01:03:39,345
I want to kiss your receding
hairline because of it.

1375
01:03:40,065 --> 01:03:40,275
Thank you.

1376
01:03:40,275 --> 01:03:40,545
Yes, thank you.

1377
01:03:40,580 --> 01:03:41,835
I, I love you for it.

1378
01:03:41,835 --> 01:03:48,435
But the, the issue is a normative
president, whether of a NeoCon ilk

1379
01:03:48,585 --> 01:03:50,325
or a liberal interventionist ilk.

1380
01:03:51,075 --> 01:03:57,255
Would've taken any Iranian retaliation
as a sign that they're evil war mongers

1381
01:03:57,255 --> 01:04:00,345
led by Adolf Hitler in clerical robes.

1382
01:04:01,035 --> 01:04:04,215
And thus, it is a reason
for regime change.

1383
01:04:04,275 --> 01:04:09,345
And thus, it is a reason to smite
this evil that has come under the

1384
01:04:09,375 --> 01:04:17,745
very heart of the hell and pursue a
holy Jihad on behalf of human rights.

1385
01:04:19,365 --> 01:04:22,455
And that's the difference in a
multipolar, in a unipolar world.

1386
01:04:22,485 --> 01:04:27,945
The reason that Joe Biden, in many ways
is a very nice guy, great legislator,

1387
01:04:28,245 --> 01:04:33,405
you know, but the reason he was the wrong
president for Multipolarity is because

1388
01:04:33,405 --> 01:04:39,765
I don't think that Joe Biden and his
like Cory of experts around him would

1389
01:04:39,765 --> 01:04:44,955
have been able to deftly and nimbly just
ignore what's coming out of Iran because

1390
01:04:44,955 --> 01:04:49,395
Jacob, you and I both know there is some
retaliation coming, some American service.

1391
01:04:49,725 --> 01:04:53,085
Men and women might be in danger, might
be even killed in this retaliation.

1392
01:04:53,865 --> 01:04:57,705
Joe Biden can't allow that
to happen because he believes

1393
01:04:57,705 --> 01:04:58,875
there's right and there's wrong.

1394
01:04:59,745 --> 01:05:03,105
And the truth is that in today's world
of Multipolarity, I mean there is still

1395
01:05:03,105 --> 01:05:07,215
right and wrong, don't get me wrong,
but unfortunately, you don't have

1396
01:05:07,215 --> 01:05:10,035
the ability to respond to every rock.

1397
01:05:10,485 --> 01:05:13,005
That is the point because
there's multiple threats.

1398
01:05:13,185 --> 01:05:17,175
It's a multiple world and you, United
States of America may be the most powerful

1399
01:05:17,175 --> 01:05:20,865
country in the world, but your power
is stretched thin around the world like

1400
01:05:20,925 --> 01:05:23,535
too little butter on too much toast.

1401
01:05:23,715 --> 01:05:24,855
To quote Jr. Token.

1402
01:05:25,620 --> 01:05:26,129
Yes.

1403
01:05:26,160 --> 01:05:28,140
Uh, it's hard being a ring bearer.

1404
01:05:28,290 --> 01:05:31,589
I, I think, um, that's why, uh, I,
I think you're right about Obama.

1405
01:05:31,649 --> 01:05:36,450
Like, uh, Obama got so much flack for the
red line in Syria, but that was actually

1406
01:05:36,450 --> 01:05:39,419
the, like, one of the most impressive
things he did in the foreign policy of

1407
01:05:39,419 --> 01:05:42,779
his, of both of his terms, which is he
made the stupid mistake about setting

1408
01:05:42,779 --> 01:05:47,640
a red line about yes, the Assad regime
use of chemical weapons and then like,

1409
01:05:47,640 --> 01:05:51,180
they used chemical weapons and then like,
the drumbeat started, like, I remember,

1410
01:05:51,180 --> 01:05:54,180
I think I was still at Strat war at
the time, like, uh, like John Kerry

1411
01:05:54,180 --> 01:05:58,080
was, was going on CNN and thundering
away about how like the red line had

1412
01:05:58,080 --> 01:05:59,759
to be honored and things like that.

1413
01:05:59,759 --> 01:06:02,879
And Obama said, eh, like,
we're not, like, no.

1414
01:06:02,910 --> 01:06:03,895
Well, I'm, I'm not doing that.

1415
01:06:03,944 --> 01:06:04,980
Jacob, like, I'm pulling back.

1416
01:06:05,669 --> 01:06:06,540
It's, it's interesting.

1417
01:06:06,540 --> 01:06:08,819
I would, I would have to say
that setting a red line is

1418
01:06:08,819 --> 01:06:10,319
stupid in a multipolar world.

1419
01:06:10,319 --> 01:06:11,220
He made a mistake.

1420
01:06:11,819 --> 01:06:12,029
Yeah.

1421
01:06:12,480 --> 01:06:14,310
But he didn't double down on the
mistake, but he didn't double down on it.

1422
01:06:14,310 --> 01:06:15,180
And that was correct.

1423
01:06:15,180 --> 01:06:17,160
Like he, he, you know,
took it in the face.

1424
01:06:17,160 --> 01:06:17,879
He took the punch.

1425
01:06:18,089 --> 01:06:19,379
But that's exactly the point.

1426
01:06:19,890 --> 01:06:23,819
In a multipolar world, you
can't be, you can't be preachy.

1427
01:06:24,570 --> 01:06:27,270
You can't be going around the
world saying like, Iran is evil.

1428
01:06:27,270 --> 01:06:30,300
Like, well, that's your opinion,
man, to quote another great movie.

1429
01:06:30,455 --> 01:06:30,675
But,

1430
01:06:30,960 --> 01:06:34,110
but this is sort of where your
argument is on a little bit of a,

1431
01:06:34,830 --> 01:06:38,790
is on like, doesn't like, because
Trump has gotten preachy about this.

1432
01:06:38,790 --> 01:06:42,510
His red line is no nuclear weapons
for this regime, and it's gone from

1433
01:06:42,660 --> 01:06:45,750
I want a nuclear deal, blah, blah,
blah, to no, no nuclear weapons.

1434
01:06:45,750 --> 01:06:46,800
Like that's his new line.

1435
01:06:46,950 --> 01:06:47,041
Well, okay.

1436
01:06:47,046 --> 01:06:48,690
That's, that's, that's a
different issue though.

1437
01:06:48,750 --> 01:06:50,310
Uh, first of all, it's very clear.

1438
01:06:50,880 --> 01:06:54,090
It's like objective, it's
physical, it's materialistic.

1439
01:06:54,090 --> 01:06:58,620
It's not like we need Iran to change
its behavior towards its own people.

1440
01:06:59,730 --> 01:07:00,060
Yeah.

1441
01:07:00,150 --> 01:07:01,290
He's never said that.

1442
01:07:01,770 --> 01:07:02,550
No, of course not.

1443
01:07:02,580 --> 01:07:06,120
You know, but that's, but that's,
that's the issue because it is a

1444
01:07:06,510 --> 01:07:14,280
actionable, it is a limited and it is
a clear delineation of what American

1445
01:07:14,280 --> 01:07:16,980
interests are, and then that's it.

1446
01:07:17,655 --> 01:07:18,615
But so was Obama.

1447
01:07:18,615 --> 01:07:21,525
It's like, I'm just saying it, it is
a red line, like where three weeks

1448
01:07:21,525 --> 01:07:25,245
ago he, he was nothing like, there is
now a red line for the United States

1449
01:07:25,245 --> 01:07:27,855
and maybe he won't, like, listen,
maybe he won't follow through on it.

1450
01:07:27,855 --> 01:07:28,185
Well, okay, fine.

1451
01:07:29,115 --> 01:07:29,865
To be consistent.

1452
01:07:29,865 --> 01:07:29,868
To be consistent.

1453
01:07:29,873 --> 01:07:33,495
Then what I would say is that I do
think that Barack Obama also made

1454
01:07:33,495 --> 01:07:35,745
a mistake for not attacking Syria.

1455
01:07:37,065 --> 01:07:38,625
Oh, for not, not following through.

1456
01:07:38,625 --> 01:07:38,685
Yeah.

1457
01:07:38,730 --> 01:07:39,350
Not following through.

1458
01:07:39,355 --> 01:07:42,165
Because look, they use chemical weapons.

1459
01:07:42,195 --> 01:07:45,225
You can just bomb the shit
out of Syria and move on.

1460
01:07:45,915 --> 01:07:48,615
This is my point, this
is my point right now.

1461
01:07:48,615 --> 01:07:52,875
Too many people are extrapolating this
into regime change, boots on the ground.

1462
01:07:52,875 --> 01:07:53,355
Why?

1463
01:07:53,895 --> 01:07:57,435
For God's sakes, maybe
it's 'cause I'm Serbian.

1464
01:07:58,575 --> 01:08:06,555
Maybe because it's, I watch my hometown
burn on CNN Live maybe because of that.

1465
01:08:07,080 --> 01:08:11,580
I remember the one example where
the US did something limited and the

1466
01:08:11,580 --> 01:08:13,140
rest of you just forgot about it.

1467
01:08:13,170 --> 01:08:15,180
'cause nobody cares about Serbia
except when we're, you know,

1468
01:08:15,210 --> 01:08:16,230
kicking your ass in sports.

1469
01:08:17,220 --> 01:08:19,020
Um, but, okay.

1470
01:08:19,109 --> 01:08:20,220
Okay, look, time out.

1471
01:08:20,460 --> 01:08:24,060
In 1999, bill Clinton showed up
and said, look, uh, you need to

1472
01:08:24,120 --> 01:08:25,770
remove your military from Kosovo.

1473
01:08:25,920 --> 01:08:26,250
Serbs.

1474
01:08:26,250 --> 01:08:32,040
Were like, Yolo, you know, you
know, show us what you got, nato.

1475
01:08:32,640 --> 01:08:33,300
Great idea.

1476
01:08:33,960 --> 01:08:34,260
Thanks.

1477
01:08:34,260 --> 01:08:34,800
Slow it on.

1478
01:08:35,160 --> 01:08:38,220
And then, you know, three months of like
taking it in the face, the servers were

1479
01:08:38,220 --> 01:08:39,630
finally like, okay, fine, fine, fine.

1480
01:08:39,840 --> 01:08:40,260
They cried.

1481
01:08:40,260 --> 01:08:44,550
Uncle, the point is that at no time was
the United States of America planning an

1482
01:08:44,550 --> 01:08:49,355
invasion of Serbia because they would've
had to face a bunch of yoki and Djokovics

1483
01:08:49,359 --> 01:08:50,520
like, fuck, you don't wanna do that.

1484
01:08:50,520 --> 01:08:52,650
So like, they were like, look, we're
just gonna bomb the shit out of

1485
01:08:52,650 --> 01:08:54,330
you until you change your behavior.

1486
01:08:55,109 --> 01:08:57,630
And this is why I would say to
everyone who right now is just

1487
01:08:57,630 --> 01:08:59,340
saying like, oh, it's another Iraq.

1488
01:08:59,670 --> 01:09:03,390
It doesn't have to be, there are ways
to use effectively what we call a

1489
01:09:03,390 --> 01:09:05,910
political science gunboat diplomacy.

1490
01:09:07,305 --> 01:09:11,774
You steam a gunboat into the port,
you show the caliber of your big

1491
01:09:11,774 --> 01:09:15,225
guns, and then, you know, you
change behavior of a country.

1492
01:09:15,944 --> 01:09:19,604
It doesn't have to be a slippery
slope into invasions, into regime

1493
01:09:19,604 --> 01:09:24,194
changes, into, you know, American
servicemen d dying in some random place.

1494
01:09:24,524 --> 01:09:26,175
The point is, it's in a limited attack.

1495
01:09:26,175 --> 01:09:28,154
I think Barack Obama should
have done that in Syria.

1496
01:09:28,154 --> 01:09:29,354
I don't see why he didn't.

1497
01:09:29,715 --> 01:09:33,524
It's because, of course, the demons
in his skeleton were left over by the

1498
01:09:33,524 --> 01:09:37,545
previous administration and he, he felt
politically that he couldn't do that.

1499
01:09:37,845 --> 01:09:41,175
I think President Trump has
correctly, in a way, I mean, obviously

1500
01:09:41,175 --> 01:09:44,024
what was incorrect was letting
Israel wag him at like a tail.

1501
01:09:44,024 --> 01:09:45,314
But let's leave that aside.

1502
01:09:45,434 --> 01:09:46,635
Let's leave that aside for a second.

1503
01:09:46,635 --> 01:09:48,585
Now that it's happened, he did it.

1504
01:09:48,644 --> 01:09:50,265
And then what did he flag to Iran?

1505
01:09:50,865 --> 01:09:51,675
This is very important.

1506
01:09:51,675 --> 01:09:54,465
He said to Iran, it's not
regime change, and this is it.

1507
01:09:54,465 --> 01:09:54,975
We're done.

1508
01:09:54,975 --> 01:09:55,695
We are done.

1509
01:09:56,475 --> 01:10:01,635
You guys can now decide where you
take this, but we don't think we, we

1510
01:10:01,635 --> 01:10:03,495
don't care that you're an evil regime.

1511
01:10:03,495 --> 01:10:04,815
God bless you for it.

1512
01:10:05,205 --> 01:10:10,725
Go ahead being evil, just be very
careful how you retaliate against this.

1513
01:10:10,935 --> 01:10:12,225
That is limited.

1514
01:10:13,635 --> 01:10:17,925
Im not immoral, immoral way to
conduct foreign policy based

1515
01:10:17,925 --> 01:10:19,305
on hardened material interests.

1516
01:10:19,515 --> 01:10:23,955
And I think it's a new, it, it is a,
it's almost a conscious acceptance by

1517
01:10:23,955 --> 01:10:28,155
America that it's a multipolar world and
you cannot be running around the world

1518
01:10:28,425 --> 01:10:32,505
trying to turn countries into fucking
Wisconsin with your foreign policy.

1519
01:10:32,505 --> 01:10:33,405
'cause it doesn't work.

1520
01:10:34,005 --> 01:10:34,305
Yeah.

1521
01:10:34,305 --> 01:10:37,470
I, I think you're slightly
mischaracterizing what trump's I, I

1522
01:10:37,475 --> 01:10:39,135
think you're like 85% of the way there.

1523
01:10:39,135 --> 01:10:41,535
But the other part that you've
left unsaid, it's not like,

1524
01:10:41,535 --> 01:10:42,465
okay, fine, you could be evil.

1525
01:10:42,465 --> 01:10:43,275
He doesn't care about that.

1526
01:10:43,275 --> 01:10:46,005
But he is also clearly said, and you're
not going to have nuclear weapons.

1527
01:10:46,275 --> 01:10:48,255
That's, and I've made it clear
since my first term, but that's

1528
01:10:48,255 --> 01:10:49,275
American interest, that you're
not gonna have nuclear weapons.

1529
01:10:49,275 --> 01:10:52,065
Now, I don't think this is gonna happen,
but let me throw you a scenario at you.

1530
01:10:52,065 --> 01:10:54,375
Like, for, for devil's
advocacy's sake, please.

1531
01:10:54,435 --> 01:10:58,935
Like, let's say the Iranians, uh, have
a successful test of a nuclear weapon

1532
01:10:58,935 --> 01:11:03,285
tomorrow, after this bombing, after
everything that's happened, like.

1533
01:11:03,780 --> 01:11:05,670
Trump can't abide that can, of course not.

1534
01:11:05,670 --> 01:11:07,440
He's gonna have to figure
out how to do more.

1535
01:11:07,770 --> 01:11:08,670
Yes, that's fine.

1536
01:11:08,670 --> 01:11:10,920
So like, there, there, there is
a line here now, which is, it's

1537
01:11:10,920 --> 01:11:12,000
not just go do your own thing.

1538
01:11:12,000 --> 01:11:14,580
This matter is closed, it's
now you will not have nukes.

1539
01:11:14,640 --> 01:11:18,540
And I've committed the US military to
making sure you will never have nukes.

1540
01:11:18,780 --> 01:11:19,380
Have a nice day.

1541
01:11:19,560 --> 01:11:21,030
I don't listen, listen,
here's what I would say.

1542
01:11:21,045 --> 01:11:24,270
The, the difference is not
that there is no way for this

1543
01:11:24,270 --> 01:11:25,410
to become a slippery slope.

1544
01:11:25,410 --> 01:11:28,980
The difference is that that way
is not moralistic or normative.

1545
01:11:29,640 --> 01:11:30,450
Yes, yes.

1546
01:11:30,825 --> 01:11:33,630
And that's, but, but, but the
reason that's important, Jacob.

1547
01:11:34,770 --> 01:11:40,170
The reason that liberal approach
to foreign policy is dangerous in a

1548
01:11:40,170 --> 01:11:46,140
multipolar world is because it sucks
you into a never ending conflict.

1549
01:11:46,590 --> 01:11:51,660
Once you identify some somebody
as Adolf Hitler, once you identify

1550
01:11:51,660 --> 01:11:55,170
somebody as a Nazi regime, you must
intervene and you must spend all

1551
01:11:55,170 --> 01:11:56,670
your resources on that intervention.

1552
01:11:56,910 --> 01:11:57,810
That's important.

1553
01:11:58,110 --> 01:11:59,040
You can set.

1554
01:11:59,460 --> 01:12:02,160
You can order a country
to change their flag.

1555
01:12:02,280 --> 01:12:04,020
Don't use green, use red.

1556
01:12:04,290 --> 01:12:06,810
You can order them to not
have a nuclear weapon.

1557
01:12:06,810 --> 01:12:10,380
You can order them to stop
wearing hats for Atlanta Braves

1558
01:12:10,380 --> 01:12:11,850
and embrace the revolution.

1559
01:12:11,850 --> 01:12:12,960
That's the La Dodgers.

1560
01:12:13,050 --> 01:12:14,100
God bless them, please.

1561
01:12:14,160 --> 01:12:17,580
And I can't wait for that revolution
to spread to the LA Lakers.

1562
01:12:18,000 --> 01:12:21,810
You will all be wearing blue
and purple and gold, goddammit.

1563
01:12:22,170 --> 01:12:22,620
But listen,

1564
01:12:22,740 --> 01:12:24,960
you're, you're welcome for
Freddie Freeman, by the way,

1565
01:12:25,110 --> 01:12:25,950
you, of course.

1566
01:12:25,950 --> 01:12:26,580
Thank you so much.

1567
01:12:26,580 --> 01:12:29,910
And also for the Toronto maple
leaf, uh, not maple leaf, my bad.

1568
01:12:29,910 --> 01:12:32,610
The Blue Jays, you know, for the Oscar.

1569
01:12:32,760 --> 01:12:37,380
And of course, let's not forget
the Boston Red Sox for Freddie.

1570
01:12:37,380 --> 01:12:37,530
If

1571
01:12:37,530 --> 01:12:39,990
you're listening, I cannot
believe you left us for them.

1572
01:12:39,990 --> 01:12:41,460
I cannot believe whatcha talking about

1573
01:12:42,475 --> 01:12:46,230
Mki Te Oscar, Freddy Japan.

1574
01:12:46,785 --> 01:12:47,865
He could have gone down.

1575
01:12:47,865 --> 01:12:51,795
He could have gone down as one of the
greatest figures in storied Atlanta.

1576
01:12:51,795 --> 01:12:52,275
Brave's history.

1577
01:12:52,275 --> 01:12:52,485
No.

1578
01:12:52,485 --> 01:12:53,085
You wanted to go home.

1579
01:12:53,085 --> 01:12:54,855
Wanted to, to Southern California.

1580
01:12:54,880 --> 01:12:56,145
I'm, oh, I'm sorry, Jacob.

1581
01:12:56,175 --> 01:12:56,835
I'm sorry.

1582
01:12:57,075 --> 01:12:57,615
Apparently you could still live in

1583
01:12:57,615 --> 01:12:58,455
Southern California.

1584
01:12:58,455 --> 01:12:59,055
Come, apparently

1585
01:12:59,055 --> 01:13:02,955
the epicenter of World War III is a
nice place to live, and apparently

1586
01:13:02,955 --> 01:13:06,075
that helps teams here attract talent.

1587
01:13:06,405 --> 01:13:07,900
Well, listen, listen, listen, listen.

1588
01:13:08,115 --> 01:13:11,565
My point is that this is the key
differentiator in a multipolar.

1589
01:13:11,565 --> 01:13:13,365
You can set all sorts of red lines.

1590
01:13:13,515 --> 01:13:17,625
They can be stupid still, you can still
make mistakes, but those red lines are

1591
01:13:17,625 --> 01:13:20,475
not whether or not somebody is evil.

1592
01:13:20,625 --> 01:13:24,375
And my point, my point to you
and to everyone listening to

1593
01:13:24,375 --> 01:13:26,775
this, I'm not an evil person.

1594
01:13:27,075 --> 01:13:31,305
I don't cheerlead for 21st
century like Hitlers out there.

1595
01:13:31,905 --> 01:13:35,925
The reality is that in a multipolar world,
the power of the United States or any

1596
01:13:35,925 --> 01:13:38,505
other great power is, is, is, is limited.

1597
01:13:39,045 --> 01:13:40,035
There are limits to that.

1598
01:13:40,035 --> 01:13:41,445
It's not preponderance of power.

1599
01:13:41,445 --> 01:13:45,285
You cannot just parachute into some
country and turn it into Wisconsin and.

1600
01:13:45,705 --> 01:13:46,905
Make it less evil.

1601
01:13:47,415 --> 01:13:50,205
And so the foreign policy
has to adjust for that.

1602
01:13:50,295 --> 01:13:53,685
And that's where President
Trump, I would say, is a perfect

1603
01:13:53,685 --> 01:13:55,275
president for a multipolar world.

1604
01:13:55,275 --> 01:14:00,375
What I fear, what I fear is the
Democratic Party, because it does have

1605
01:14:00,375 --> 01:14:04,845
the Trump derangement syndrome, is going
to throw the baby with the bathwater.

1606
01:14:05,235 --> 01:14:09,555
And listen, lemme tell you like Trump is
a baby, he's got some stinky bath water.

1607
01:14:10,815 --> 01:14:11,145
Alright?

1608
01:14:11,145 --> 01:14:14,895
There's, there's a lot of stuff
that needs to be thrown out as far

1609
01:14:14,895 --> 01:14:16,215
as the bath water is concerned.

1610
01:14:16,215 --> 01:14:24,015
But the one very, very good
thing is that I, I think that his

1611
01:14:24,075 --> 01:14:28,605
approach to foreign policy is going
to withstand the test of time.

1612
01:14:28,845 --> 01:14:33,255
But I do fear that it could be
ideologically resisted by the next

1613
01:14:33,255 --> 01:14:35,655
Democratic president in 2028 or beyond.

1614
01:14:36,299 --> 01:14:38,400
Merely because it was
Trump's foreign policy.

1615
01:14:38,429 --> 01:14:39,719
It's not Trump's foreign policy.

1616
01:14:39,719 --> 01:14:42,360
It's matter Nic, foreign policy.

1617
01:14:42,360 --> 01:14:43,740
It's Kissinger's foreign policy.

1618
01:14:43,950 --> 01:14:47,460
It is a foreign policy of anybody
who's existed in the past, which

1619
01:14:47,460 --> 01:14:53,670
is you cannot just identify your
adversaries as morally inferior.

1620
01:14:53,910 --> 01:14:57,960
Because once you do that, you don't
know when to stop the war and actually

1621
01:14:57,960 --> 01:14:59,340
sit down with them and negotiate.

1622
01:14:59,849 --> 01:15:01,590
It becomes impossible to do that.

1623
01:15:01,950 --> 01:15:07,200
And therefore every freaking war then
becomes a war of existential proportions

1624
01:15:07,200 --> 01:15:11,759
where yes, you do push countries to
the brink of existential survivor.

1625
01:15:12,434 --> 01:15:15,835
Survivor, survivor, wait, survival.

1626
01:15:16,650 --> 01:15:20,969
And then they do all sorts of things in
retaliation because you put them to that.

1627
01:15:21,179 --> 01:15:25,019
That's why this kind of a conflict,
this kind of a, a military action

1628
01:15:25,019 --> 01:15:26,940
that just happened is unique.

1629
01:15:27,360 --> 01:15:30,630
And I think everybody listening to
this should go and read like President

1630
01:15:30,630 --> 01:15:32,610
Trump's like tweet hack sets.

1631
01:15:32,790 --> 01:15:33,240
Yes.

1632
01:15:33,269 --> 01:15:34,590
Um, like, um.

1633
01:15:35,670 --> 01:15:36,270
Press conference.

1634
01:15:36,270 --> 01:15:36,510
Why?

1635
01:15:36,510 --> 01:15:38,550
Because America is telling its adversary.

1636
01:15:38,730 --> 01:15:39,990
We're not seeking regime change.

1637
01:15:39,990 --> 01:15:43,110
You wanna go and like do whatever you
want to Your people go right ahead.

1638
01:15:43,470 --> 01:15:44,460
We think that's stupid.

1639
01:15:44,460 --> 01:15:46,650
We think you are bad actors.

1640
01:15:48,000 --> 01:15:51,240
We think you're repressing women, but
it's not our place to change that.

1641
01:15:51,720 --> 01:15:53,130
Good luck to you with that.

1642
01:15:54,510 --> 01:15:57,510
You know, we think your time
is up anyways because you are

1643
01:15:57,510 --> 01:15:58,710
an amoral country, whatever.

1644
01:15:58,710 --> 01:15:59,910
But we're not gonna punish you for that.

1645
01:15:59,910 --> 01:16:02,760
We're gonna punish you for this thing
here, which is your nuclear program,

1646
01:16:02,760 --> 01:16:04,530
and then we're open for negotiations.

1647
01:16:06,120 --> 01:16:06,360
Yeah.

1648
01:16:06,840 --> 01:16:07,710
Alright, last words.

1649
01:16:08,099 --> 01:16:10,740
Um, 'cause I'm, I'm on the clock.

1650
01:16:10,769 --> 01:16:14,580
Uh, my last thing is just like, and this
is not the thing that's gonna like, you

1651
01:16:14,580 --> 01:16:17,219
know, people wanna talk about and things
like that, but for me, what's salient

1652
01:16:17,219 --> 01:16:20,969
when you step back from all of this
is that, um, like you said, probably

1653
01:16:20,969 --> 01:16:23,790
not World War iii, probably not even
that big of a deal in the short run.

1654
01:16:23,820 --> 01:16:27,360
Like probably this goes the way of India,
Pakistan, Russia, Ukraine, maybe a slow

1655
01:16:27,360 --> 01:16:30,840
burning crisis that continues, that we
all get acculturated to and normalized to.

1656
01:16:30,840 --> 01:16:32,880
And like that, that's sort of
where I think it's heading.

1657
01:16:33,150 --> 01:16:36,210
But I do think when you take a step
back and look at the world now, the

1658
01:16:36,210 --> 01:16:38,190
Eurasian landmass is in trouble.

1659
01:16:38,375 --> 01:16:41,554
Like there are problems everywhere
and brush fires everywhere.

1660
01:16:41,795 --> 01:16:45,005
And the places where there are not brush
fires or places like South America,

1661
01:16:45,065 --> 01:16:47,644
and I know that Southeast Asia is still
technically part of the ian land mess,

1662
01:16:47,644 --> 01:16:49,025
but Southeast Asia looks pretty good too.

1663
01:16:49,085 --> 01:16:51,215
And Australia, Oceania
like looks pretty good.

1664
01:16:51,215 --> 01:16:53,945
I wouldn't throw Sub-Saharan Africa in
there 'cause they've got lots of problems.

1665
01:16:53,945 --> 01:16:58,174
But I think if you're just looking around
the world for relative stability, like

1666
01:16:58,264 --> 01:16:59,974
there are pockets of relative instability.

1667
01:16:59,974 --> 01:17:01,025
It's just not in Eurasia.

1668
01:17:01,085 --> 01:17:04,684
And there's something happening like
across the Eurasian land mass, which as,

1669
01:17:04,684 --> 01:17:07,295
as somebody who's trying to step back
and not try, 'cause you know, you can

1670
01:17:07,295 --> 01:17:10,565
fade geopolitics and think about trading,
but if you're thinking about frameworks

1671
01:17:10,565 --> 01:17:16,295
like beyond the short term and thinking
about 5, 10, 15 years from now, um, I

1672
01:17:16,295 --> 01:17:20,224
think we're actually having a very stark
relief where the places of stability in

1673
01:17:20,224 --> 01:17:23,764
the world are and where the places of
instability in the world are going to be.

1674
01:17:23,764 --> 01:17:26,554
And for me, that's the big lesson
here because we've had all of

1675
01:17:26,554 --> 01:17:30,184
these conflicts in, in, in short
success, in in short succession.

1676
01:17:30,575 --> 01:17:32,945
And like we, we are also seeing
where there isn't conflict.

1677
01:17:32,945 --> 01:17:34,804
And for me, like that's the lesson.

1678
01:17:34,955 --> 01:17:37,505
Uh, like, and that's how I'm trying
to think about reorienting things.

1679
01:17:37,505 --> 01:17:38,045
What about you?

1680
01:17:38,700 --> 01:17:41,610
So, first of all, uh, I'm not
gonna disagree with you on Latin

1681
01:17:41,610 --> 01:17:42,719
America and Southeast Asia.

1682
01:17:42,719 --> 01:17:43,740
I love those two places.

1683
01:17:43,740 --> 01:17:45,420
I think they're gonna do great.

1684
01:17:45,900 --> 01:17:47,790
However, I do wanna disagree with you.

1685
01:17:49,440 --> 01:17:49,679
Good.

1686
01:17:49,679 --> 01:17:54,660
I, I think there is a concept of a
garrison state, and I think that too

1687
01:17:54,660 --> 01:17:57,870
many investors and too many commentators
just look in the region and they say

1688
01:17:57,870 --> 01:17:59,130
like, oh my, I don't wanna be there.

1689
01:18:00,120 --> 01:18:05,009
Not a single barrel of oil has
been lost since October 7th, 2023.

1690
01:18:05,969 --> 01:18:09,269
And I'm like, the only analyst out
there that points that out repeatedly.

1691
01:18:09,389 --> 01:18:14,429
Not a single barrel of oil has
not made it to the global market.

1692
01:18:14,880 --> 01:18:17,280
In other words, Iran and
Israel could nuke each other.

1693
01:18:18,030 --> 01:18:19,380
The rest of the world can move on.

1694
01:18:20,070 --> 01:18:20,160
Mm-hmm.

1695
01:18:20,400 --> 01:18:25,259
And that's because oftentimes it's in the
regions of instability that you find, the

1696
01:18:25,259 --> 01:18:27,330
gems, that's where things start moving.

1697
01:18:27,330 --> 01:18:30,900
That's where countries realize we gotta
get better because we're not safe.

1698
01:18:31,500 --> 01:18:31,799
You know?

1699
01:18:31,799 --> 01:18:33,375
So I look at what's
happening in Saudi Arabia.

1700
01:18:33,375 --> 01:18:35,549
I look at what's happening
in Dubai Abu Dhabi.

1701
01:18:35,549 --> 01:18:38,760
I. These are countries literally
in the middle of all these

1702
01:18:38,760 --> 01:18:40,320
rockets go flying back and forth.

1703
01:18:41,160 --> 01:18:45,420
And I'm not sure that I would not
wanna like, visit those countries

1704
01:18:45,420 --> 01:18:49,560
or invest or, or, or, or have
a condo like, or go for fun.

1705
01:18:49,560 --> 01:18:51,270
Like I absolutely would.

1706
01:18:51,330 --> 01:18:54,570
And I absolutely have been over the
last two years going in and out seeing

1707
01:18:54,600 --> 01:18:55,890
the changes that are happening there.

1708
01:18:56,340 --> 01:19:01,410
Similarly with countries in Europe, like
Europe is taking the challenge from Russia

1709
01:19:01,500 --> 01:19:03,120
and is actually doing the right things.

1710
01:19:03,120 --> 01:19:07,560
Poland, you know, I mean the
economists jinx Poland by putting

1711
01:19:07,560 --> 01:19:09,000
them on the cover of their magazine.

1712
01:19:09,540 --> 01:19:13,800
But the point, the, the one thing I
think where we, we agree, I think Latin

1713
01:19:13,800 --> 01:19:17,910
America is gonna do very well Southeast
Asia too, but I think that there's

1714
01:19:17,910 --> 01:19:25,530
pockets of stability on this brush fire,
uh, affected Eurasian, uh, landmass.

1715
01:19:25,620 --> 01:19:29,310
And I think that's where innovation,
and that's where entrepreneurship,

1716
01:19:29,370 --> 01:19:34,890
and that's where vigor and that's
where, uh, you know, actual.

1717
01:19:35,355 --> 01:19:39,464
Productivity will be shown up because
necessity is the mother of all invention.

1718
01:19:39,915 --> 01:19:43,394
So I like the concept of Garrison
states and I want to invest in those.

1719
01:19:44,054 --> 01:19:44,474
Gotcha.

1720
01:19:45,075 --> 01:19:45,344
All right.

1721
01:19:45,344 --> 01:19:47,295
Uh, before we go breaking news, you ready?

1722
01:19:47,625 --> 01:19:47,985
Yes.

1723
01:19:49,065 --> 01:19:52,214
Uh, the Phoenix Suns have agreed to
trade Kevin Durant to the Houston

1724
01:19:52,214 --> 01:19:55,545
Rockets for Jalen Green, Dylan
Brooks, the number 10 pick in this

1725
01:19:55,545 --> 01:19:59,474
year's draft and five second round
picks what a poo poo platter this is.

1726
01:19:59,924 --> 01:20:02,295
Uh, so you can react to that or
you can make your picks for Game

1727
01:20:02,295 --> 01:20:03,615
seven tonight before we say goodbye.

1728
01:20:04,304 --> 01:20:07,365
Well, I'm definitely, uh,
I think game seven, man.

1729
01:20:09,434 --> 01:20:15,045
I mean, you know, it's United
States versus Iran, right?

1730
01:20:16,275 --> 01:20:17,025
Ooh, spicy.

1731
01:20:17,535 --> 01:20:17,804
Yeah.

1732
01:20:17,804 --> 01:20:21,165
OKC man, the heartland,
the MAGA heartland.

1733
01:20:21,495 --> 01:20:26,054
They just got like stealth bombers and
the Canadian assassin, you know, they're

1734
01:20:26,054 --> 01:20:28,905
just like, yeah, so much more powerful.

1735
01:20:28,905 --> 01:20:29,295
But man,

1736
01:20:31,455 --> 01:20:32,655
the Pacers have the Caliban.

1737
01:20:33,210 --> 01:20:35,790
And my heart wants the Pacers to win.

1738
01:20:35,790 --> 01:20:39,690
But you know, I, I do think
OKC is going to prove to be

1739
01:20:40,740 --> 01:20:42,300
just overwhelmingly powerful.

1740
01:20:42,840 --> 01:20:44,849
You think OKC looked scared to me?

1741
01:20:45,480 --> 01:20:46,620
I know they're young.

1742
01:20:46,684 --> 01:20:47,580
I, I listen man.

1743
01:20:47,760 --> 01:20:50,400
I know, but would you put
money on the Pacers though?

1744
01:20:50,400 --> 01:20:53,760
That's such a, like,
it's a, it's a crazy bet.

1745
01:20:53,970 --> 01:20:56,190
You know, it's, it's gonna
be the, it's Oklahoma.

1746
01:20:56,190 --> 01:21:00,330
There's, their fans are not gonna
sit down and they're just so good.

1747
01:21:00,360 --> 01:21:02,639
Like SGA is like so good.

1748
01:21:03,330 --> 01:21:07,349
I agree with you though, that the Pacers
play with no weight on their shoulders.

1749
01:21:07,440 --> 01:21:10,800
Uh, whereas the thunder do, and
look, I'll tell you this, Jacob

1750
01:21:10,800 --> 01:21:12,540
Shapiro, if there is a God.

1751
01:21:13,425 --> 01:21:14,625
He'll let the Pacers win.

1752
01:21:16,155 --> 01:21:18,375
I wouldn't have put money on, I
wouldn't have even thought, I, I

1753
01:21:18,375 --> 01:21:23,115
thought the Pacers didn't have a
chance until game six and now, yeah, I

1754
01:21:23,115 --> 01:21:26,955
think I might throw some money because
like the kcs seem seemed scared.

1755
01:21:27,195 --> 01:21:29,985
Like they seem like they didn't
know what to do and like they really

1756
01:21:29,985 --> 01:21:34,335
like, it's SGA and like if SGA is
not cooking, like who else is there

1757
01:21:34,335 --> 01:21:35,505
around him, who's gonna go forward.

1758
01:21:35,505 --> 01:21:35,565
Yeah.

1759
01:21:35,570 --> 01:21:37,725
And I think the coaching
aspect here really matters.

1760
01:21:37,785 --> 01:21:38,415
Yes, totally.

1761
01:21:38,415 --> 01:21:40,785
Like I, I think Carlisle's
been here before and he's got

1762
01:21:40,785 --> 01:21:42,015
the, he's got the Porsche.

1763
01:21:42,075 --> 01:21:42,585
No, he's awesome.

1764
01:21:42,585 --> 01:21:44,565
Like, you know, he doesn't
going in all directions a

1765
01:21:44,565 --> 01:21:45,135
hundred percent.

1766
01:21:45,135 --> 01:21:48,165
And listen, the reason I say
there's a God, like that team

1767
01:21:48,165 --> 01:21:49,425
should have stayed in Seattle.

1768
01:21:50,295 --> 01:21:52,185
You know, they've been cursed ever since.

1769
01:21:52,215 --> 01:21:56,595
There's clearly like something, but
you know, they are, I mean they won

1770
01:21:56,595 --> 01:21:58,515
like how many games have they won now?

1771
01:21:58,515 --> 01:21:59,505
94 or something.

1772
01:21:59,505 --> 01:22:03,225
Like, it's just, it's hard, it's hard
for me to see them, but I would love for

1773
01:22:03,225 --> 01:22:07,725
the Pacers to win just for the, you know,
for the, the Cinderella story of it.

1774
01:22:08,565 --> 01:22:11,745
Be, by the way, this will be the
greatest upset mathematically in

1775
01:22:11,745 --> 01:22:13,485
NBA finals history if it happens.

1776
01:22:13,815 --> 01:22:14,235
I, I,

1777
01:22:14,265 --> 01:22:14,775
well, and I

1778
01:22:14,775 --> 01:22:16,185
check, oh, maybe 2004.

1779
01:22:16,185 --> 01:22:17,565
The Detroit is still bigger.

1780
01:22:17,565 --> 01:22:18,105
I'm not sure.

1781
01:22:18,825 --> 01:22:19,245
Yeah.

1782
01:22:19,485 --> 01:22:22,635
It, it also would be a huge victory
for the United States over Canada.

1783
01:22:22,695 --> 01:22:24,375
'cause I mean, you know, we've
been talking about multipolar

1784
01:22:24,375 --> 01:22:25,725
basketball here for a long time.

1785
01:22:25,725 --> 01:22:29,355
And SJ if you're gonna blow this
shit to, you know, uh, Tyrese,

1786
01:22:29,355 --> 01:22:34,695
Halliburton from Oshkosh, Wisconsin,
uh, like not you're, you're Canadian.

1787
01:22:34,725 --> 01:22:37,275
Uh, basketball geopolitics not
looking so good if you fumble this,

1788
01:22:37,695 --> 01:22:39,855
but, but you're probably right.

1789
01:22:40,605 --> 01:22:40,905
Alright.

1790
01:22:41,145 --> 01:22:41,715
Unfortunately.

1791
01:22:41,715 --> 01:22:41,955
Yeah.

1792
01:22:42,345 --> 01:22:43,395
Alright, well this was great.

1793
01:22:43,395 --> 01:22:43,755
Thank you.

1794
01:22:43,755 --> 01:22:49,515
And by the way, for all you, uh, waiting
for our long anticipated trade value,

1795
01:22:49,995 --> 01:22:53,685
we are going to replicate what Bill
Simmons does on the basketball side.

1796
01:22:53,865 --> 01:22:58,545
We're going to do a trade value podcast
at some point when Israel Iran calms down.

1797
01:22:59,205 --> 01:23:04,785
Uh, we're going to both present our top
30 leaders and basically the way it works.

1798
01:23:06,060 --> 01:23:07,710
The politician, that's number one.

1799
01:23:07,770 --> 01:23:13,110
You would not trade him or her For
anybody, the politician becomes 30th.

1800
01:23:13,260 --> 01:23:17,400
It means that you would trade that
person if you were in the country

1801
01:23:17,400 --> 01:23:19,020
that I run for anyone above.

1802
01:23:21,180 --> 01:23:22,380
So we're gonna do that soon.

1803
01:23:22,380 --> 01:23:22,890
I can't wait.

1804
01:23:23,310 --> 01:23:23,970
It's just that I can't

1805
01:23:23,970 --> 01:23:24,360
wait.

1806
01:23:24,480 --> 01:23:28,110
So, Iran, Israel, please stop this
nonsense so that we can get to the

1807
01:23:28,110 --> 01:23:29,490
content that people really need.

1808
01:23:29,490 --> 01:23:31,740
And that's truly important
to the future of the, I mean,

1809
01:23:31,740 --> 01:23:35,490
Benjamin Netanyahu should just
stop bombing Iran 'cause he wants

1810
01:23:35,490 --> 01:23:38,970
to find out where we put him on
our top 30 liter in the world.

1811
01:23:39,360 --> 01:23:40,380
If he makes the cut,

1812
01:23:42,095 --> 01:23:43,170
does he make your cut?

1813
01:23:43,560 --> 01:23:43,950
I don't know.

1814
01:23:44,280 --> 01:23:45,780
We, we'll have to wait until that episode.

1815
01:23:46,350 --> 01:23:46,710
All right.

1816
01:23:46,710 --> 01:23:46,950
All right.

1817
01:23:46,950 --> 01:23:47,850
I won't spoil anything.

1818
01:23:48,120 --> 01:23:48,570
Cheers, dude.