Welcome in preseason. Hype is everywhere, but if you really wanna know what people believe, follow the money. As an intermission between the A FC breakdown and the NFC division breakdowns, we're going to go over some season long sports bets.

Yeah. Today we're gonna be breaking down some of our favorite props from division Wind totals to rushing yards, to even a title long shot for the NFC. We'll go over which players and teams were fading, which ones were trusting, and then providing you some evidence why.

I am Judy. He's Quentin, and this is the Fantasy Football Game Plan. And today we blend fantasy insight with smart bets and a little bit of bold prediction. Let's go into the numbers talk strategy. And see what the odds made makers got right and may have, and what they may have slipped up on.

All right. So jumping in, we got a couple of over under bets. So the first one that I noticed is every year they're introducing a couple new markets. This was a new market that I saw and I had not seen specific over unders for divisional wins. But I've been digging into the schedule and one team I really like. Is the Cardinals. So Cardinals and their line is over two and a half divisional wins at a minus one 30 price. last year they were swept by the Seahawks. They split with the Rams and then swept the 49 ERs. So they went three and three in their games, so would've hit it last year. And I think this team has improved and is definitely trending towards the right direction compared to the rest of their division. And one key. Piece that I think really favors this bet they don't even play the Rams who are susceptible to injury until very late in the season. They don't play them until week 14, and then they play the, again, week 18. So

Crazy.

yeah, it

It.

It's some scheduling. They also play the four diners in Seattle back to back both times. So

Oh gosh.

there.

Yeah. It's gonna be a fun season for them. I can't wait till we get to break down this team.

Yeah, this is gonna be a fun division. But as a little preview, I don't really like the moves that the Seahawks have made. I don't really think Donald's an upgrade over Gino and I think that team still has some serious flaws. So I think they can pick up an extra game there. Who knows if the 49 ERs are gonna be healthy. Just about every one of their wide receivers is already hurt.

Yeah, I think they definitely have the chance to improve their divisional record from last year and three games. That's just half, that's all they need to do, either three at home, mix of on the road. I don't like going into Seattle, but if you win at home then you can do it. And they always play the 49 ERs really tough.

They do.

Even when they're bad.

Yeah. My expectation for this team is about four divisional wins. I think they're much, much closer to four than they're to three. So you're getting a really good value on this line, that's my first bet. Where are you taken next?

So I also have a divisional WINS bet, but it's on a team that we've already reviewed. If you haven't listened to our breakdown on the A FC West, go check that out. But the chiefs are at four and a half wins, and it's a minus two 30 on DraftKings, which it's not paying a whole lot. But I really like this bet as we talk the coaching is just so strong in this division with Andy Reed, Pete Carroll Jim Harbaugh, and I'm forgetting one again.

Sean Peyton.

Sean. Peyton. Alright. So Sean Peyton that I just. Think it's too difficult to get five wins. That means that you win all three of 'em at home, and then you have to pick up two on the road. And we saw the chiefs last year come out on top on a lot of close games, and I just don't think that happens again this year with the way the A FC West is stacked with both coaching and player talent. I think it catches up to 'em this year.

Yeah, this bet, should have hit last year. They blocked a field in Denver to win that game. And if that goes different. That they would've wound up with just four divisional wins. There's, and the division's a lot better this year. So I think I really like that under as well.

so next up, you've got a couple player props for us. What's the first one that you like?

Yeah.

I see it's bold in the document, so I think you really like this one.

this is my bold, this is the one that like my multi-unit bet for the season. So I'm. This is the one I'm most confident and I'm just hammering it wherever I can find it. And I've been following it for a little bit now. So the line is James Cook nine and a half rushing touchdowns at minus one 15. last year James Cook was astronomical on his touchdown rate. He scored 16 rushing touchdowns. this is just saying that wasn't the true average. That's not who James Cook is as a player. And I think that's gonna come back down to probably in between his first couple seasons and his last season. In 2022 and 2023, he had just two rushing touchdowns in each of those seasons. And then last year he was sitting at 16, even though he had less yards than he did in the 2023 season.

That's crazy.

Yeah, he was ninth in the NFL for rushing yards, but actually tied for first in the NFL for rushing touchdowns. So it was a weird season. And also I would hurry to get this line 'cause it might be changing. He actually had recent news his holding himself outta practice. And when asked about. Why he's doing that. He said for business and just kept

Yeah.

business

Business. Yep. Everything's business.

Think we both like Ray Davis as a backup there. I think he's a better backup back. And so it might just give out an opportunity if Ray Davis is running with the ones they're like, yeah, maybe we don't, maybe we don't need this guy as much.

I think that could definitely work out because last year I expected actually more out of Ray Davis and I was really surprised when it was all James Cook and we weren't seeing more of Ray Davis, but maybe they ran him a little bit too hard knowing that he was going to, be asking for another contract. In the SE going into this season, no one wants to play that final year of their contract. It seems.

Yeah, they want to be extended before that, and especially with how physical the position is. I can't really blame 'em, but. can take advantage of it. And that on the Sportsbook side. And one other thing I wanted to highlight is it wasn't just James Cook Overproducing, it was the entire team. If we look at where the Buffalo Bills finished in rushing offense here were the teams around them. the Buffalo Bills had 32 rushing touchdowns here. The two teams above them, the Cardinals had 18 rushing touchdowns. The Colts had 20 rushing touchdowns. The Falcons were one below them and had 18, and then the Steelers were two below them and had 14, so they were almost double.

Oh my gosh.

It's just a multi-pronged bet here that you're betting things come back to normal, that you have an outlier player. an outlier team, and last year was the healthiest we ever saw running backs. It was the most rushing touchdowns we've seen in recent years, so it was an outlier year or two. So I would hurry to take the under nine and a half rushing touchdowns. I know it might seem scary just from what he did last season, but I would expect it to be more around six or seven. You're really getting a good value here.

That's awesome. I am gonna run out and bet that one, you've got one more on running backs for us. One, I think this is your favorite running back. You're gonna have to go get his jersey.

Yeah, this might not be my favorite bet. It still is one of the ones I'm more confident in, but this player is very exciting with Marian Hampton and his opportunity for the Chargers. So he was drafted first round and his rushing yardage. Prop bet is set at 825 rushing yards and I don't see how he doesn't go over that. Really. The only way I think is health dependent, but really with a younger running back that kind of alleviates some of the injury worries. And Hampton doesn't really have any injury history in college. He's been a work horse, bell cow running back all through college and he's in a very good scheme to do it.

Yeah, so JK Dobbins was there last year and he had over 900 yards in just 13 games. Is that correct?

Yeah, so JK Dobbins, we saw him get chased down by a lot of defenders. He didn't quite have that top end speed that he used to have. He was recovering from a couple major injuries and he's still got 900 yards in this offense. I think Hampton, at this point in their careers, he's a much more explosive running back, and that also shows you that even if he misses a couple games, he still should hit this 825 rushing yards. Just comes down to 55 rushing yards a game. If he misses two games, that's accounting for 15 games played.

It sounds like another great bet, and when we break it down that way, what about Naje Harris stealing touches away from him.

He was supposed to be the threat that who they brought in from a free agency, but he's still not even practicing. He had that 4th of July fireworks eye injury and so we're, or um, Hampton's getting all of the carries with the starters. It's also not like Najee was a running back. With this team last year, he's not the incumbent, he's also new to the system and needs those practice reps. So we should expect Hampton to be the clear starter from week one. And I don't see how he doesn't hit this yard when we also look back through first round running backs. And it's just how have they done historically? What can we expect from a first round running back? All of the ones for the. backs from this decade. So going back from to 20 15, 8 of the 10 qualifying running backs would've hit this. I ignored Travis et in because he didn't play a single snap his year. He had that Liz Frank injury, but eight out of 10, the only two that didn't work. Clyde Edwards Aire, who was the 32nd pick, and then Melvin Gordon, who had that split backfield. Nia was also injured his rookie season, so an eight outta 10. Rate is pretty good when you're getting even odds.

Now that I'm looking at this, I was a little bit afraid of Ashton Gen's projections. There was a bet in there at 1100 was the sweet spot. And maybe I'm gonna have to go back and look at that again. 'cause maybe he can hit 1100, but it looks like 1100 might be pushing it a little bit, but it still seems like it would be doable on that Raiders team.

Yeah, I think it's doable and I do just project Hampton and Genty to be closer than they are apart. So you're getting that discount of about 300 yards from going from the sixth overall pick to the 17th overall pick or something around that.

It sounds like this is the smarter bet then. So I have one and I had it in the medium bets, but I think I am, I'm ready to move it up into the more confident bets. And that is Jalen Hertz over 3,500 passing yards, and that's a plus one 50 on Draft Kings draft. Last year, Jalen Hurtz only passed for 2,900 passing yards. They didn't need to pass. This year the division gets more competitive. We saw those late shootouts against Washington and people putting 55 points on the board. And in games like that, they're going to have to pass more. So I think. It comes back to normal a little bit. The two seasons before last year in 22 and 23 Hertz passed for 3,800 yards and 3,700 yards. So I see we, I think we see that come back to normal as well, and that we don't see all of the workload that Saquon Barkley had and taking the pressure off of that team this year.

Yeah,

So I'm willing to risk it.

It's a good angle for the Eagles because their passing game is something we've been looking at for like best ball, and especially with the expected regression of Saquon. No running back has ever repeated that efficiency numbers, those yardage numbers on back, back-to-back seasons. So would expect them to lean more heavily towards the pass. And then I think it's also. Like the unspoken thing with all of these season long bets is there's always room for a lot of injury. There's chaos in the NFL, and so if there's any injuries to saquon or key defensive players, they're gonna be pushed to pass more in those situations.

last year they just bypassed all that and the injury bug didn't get them. And I think it, everything works its way back to average.

Yeah, they were the healthiest team last year and we know they have elite weapons on the outside.

I think Dylann Hertz is gonna have to step up a little bit and pass a little bit more this year. So I like this bet.

And plus one 50, so a positive bet.

What do you have that's positive for us?

So in that, yeah, that medium category getting, we're getting a little bit more risky, but there's a little bit more upside here. Is Romo Dunay to post a thousand yards in his sophomore season. So it's at plus two 20. so you are getting some bonus there, but really I see a lot of reasons how this goes. Right. I think you have progression we would expect from. First year in the offense, trying to learn it. And then second year, especially the familiar familiarity with the quarterback as well. So we expect him to grow into that role and grow as an NFL wide receiver. We also have Keenan Allen leaving, so that is 120 targets that walked out the door with him, that are available this year. I think they're trying to replace them through the draft, but those will probably be a down the road future of the team. I think O Dunay is the now of the team, Last year, just 'cause a, just as a refresh of what he did, because I, he had a lot more yards when I looked back than I remembered. He had 734 as a rookie, and that was with an offensive scheme. That didn't really work well at all. Their offensive coordinator got fired, their head coach got fired midway through the season. Now you have Ben Johnson stepping in. I think

We know he's gonna wanna pass it.

yeah. Yeah. We saw how successful he was in Detroit and I think Ben Johnson's also pretty good at catering to who he has on the field. Like I think we saw more rush heavy attack in Detroit because they had Montgomery, they had Gibbs and a domino offensive line. I think with the weapons they have in Chicago, it tells me that they're gonna pass it a lot more. Get Oze involved and if you hear how Ben Johnson speaks about Rome, it's very highly, it's a lot of praise. And he will set up some plays specifically for him.

I like this butt. I like all these butts. You've got one long shot that I don't think I've bought into yet.

That long shot is the Green Bay Packers at plus nine 50 to win the NFC. We did just talk about what could go wrong for the Eagles and how injury proof they were last season. And normally that isn't consistent year to year, but the Eagles are the clear favorite to win the NFC. And then it's the odds books trying to find who's that next up. A lot of people think Detroit is still a strong team, but we saw a lot of their coaching staff. Depart and they're gonna have to figure that out and we'll see how effective it is if they can keep that ship sailing. also the big surprise was the commanders who were kind of ahead of schedule last year, they shocked everyone, but they have a lot of older skill positions. And Terry McLaurin still not signed. They've got 30-year-old Deebo Samuel as their number one option right now. So that doesn't really impress me. And four stretches. Green Bay has been very impressive. and so I think at a plus nine 50 you're getting a lot of value there.

Yeah, Detroit's hard to go past for me.

I.

they've just been so good and they've been so good without a defense and now we're going to get play injured players back and they should be just as strong. But I don't know who wins here. And maybe it is just a toss up and it'll, plus nine 50. It's definitely worth taking a shot. I know last year when love got paid, I was super out on Love at Quarterback, but. And he didn't have a good year, and his wide receivers were always injured. If we talk about the players that didn't get injured and how that goes back to average. But this was a team, the Packers that endured a ton of injuries and therefore they should go the other way and be healthy. And we don't seem to look at it like that. We're like, oh, if you're injured, you're just always injured. But they should go back to being healthy. They should get a healthy year. And if they do, then they're. Definitely have the talent to, to win that division.

I think when it comes down to picking these season long futures really the only teams that I trust for Super Bowls or to win their conference is teams that I trust, the coach, number one, and then I trust the quarterback. Love is definitely the question mark there. I trust Lalo a lot more. We saw him get wins with a backup quarterback. Last week or last year when love was hurt and he always fields a competitive team and gets his guys into a position to succeed. so they tried to bolster that roster with a couple more weapons in the draft, and then they expect to see some improvement on the defensive side. On the defensive line. So I think they're without a clear number two in the NFC. It's good to take a shot on these. People are very high on the 49 ERs too, but they're, they have a lot of gaps. They were one of the worst teams last year, and now to do a complete turnaround

Yeah.

surprise me.

Yeah I'm with you there. So we will put links to all of these bets if you wanna click on it and bring up the play slip in DraftKings, we'll have links in the description for all of these. You can comment and tell us why we're wrong or why you support it, or better yet, drop your bet. What do you like that we didn't mi that we missed on this episode?

If you want any more insight heading into the season, don't miss our full division breakdowns. Of every a FC division that is already posted. And then NFC will be coming out here shortly. We talk sleepers, bus depth chart everything's new. And then the training camp drama that you need to know before draft day.

Yeah, the training camp drama's starting to get fun. The players that showed up for training camp and now they're like, yeah, nah, I'm not, I'm waiting for that contract. Anyhow, just scroll back up in YouTube and find those a FC re division reviews and we will be back next week with additional a NFC division reviews. Thanks for listening and always good luck and play smart.