Breaking news. Texas is officially the fastest growing state in the US and could overtake California by 2045. And the translation for that is buy a house now before our traffic looks like LA's. And if you're thinking of buying a house, listen to this right now. Across the country, homes are selling at 1.8% below asking price. That's the biggest discount in two years. And across Texas, they're also sitting on the market for 56 days on average. That's the longest in five years. And at the end of 2024, 39% of DFW households were at risk of eviction or foreclosure. And that's a major red flag, proving that some might be thriving, but many are barely hanging sellers. Time to get creative. Price cuts, closing costs, maybe throw in an asteroid proof bunker. I don't know. Howdy. Howdy. Welcome to the Texas Real Estate and Finance podcast Market Update for the week of February 20th. I'm your host, Mike Mills, a North Texas mortgage banker with Geneva Financial. Look, the world of housing is not boring these days. Possible HUD layoffs, falling home prices, local market shifts, commission lawsuits, and rates that just refuse to come down. But I'm here to help you sort it all out and keep you informed on your drive around town so you can focus on what's most important, which is paying those bills. Let's not waste any more time and we'll get right to it. Leading off, as always, I'm going to update you on where rates are this week. Let's just say that the 7% mark is holding on. Like a house cat avoiding a bath. It just keeps clawing back every time we try to get below that water line. In our housing data segment. This week we are going to focus on the country's favorite housing market whipping boy, Austin, Texas. Is the Austin market falling off a cliff or is it finally starting to level off? Also this week I'm going to bring you a new segment I like to call the Weekly Wild Card, where I throw in a mix of real estate conspiracies, market facts, and the most random economic stat your news feed forgot to tell you. Some of it's useful, some of it's just bizarre, but all of it'll make you sound smarter at your next open house. And to wrap things up today, I've got a quick list of game changing AI tools that'll supercharge your business, helping you create killer content, automate mind numbing tasks, and edit videos like pros and yes, even clone yourself. That's right, AI can now duplicate you. So if you ever wish you could be in two places at once. Congratulations. The future has arrived. And of course along the way I have a local Realtor, Amy Cornell of Compass Real Estate Group, giving us some buyer, seller and realtor hacks to help you along your real estate path. Oh but real quick, if you're finding this stuff helpful and appreciate the information that I bring you each week, then I would appreciate you hitting that like button, subscribing to the podcast or sharing it with a friend. Thanks for all the support. And oh yeah, if you know someone who needs help navigating the mortgage maze, give me a shout. I do this show fund but Mortgages pays the bills and I would love to help you. So give me a call if you need some okay, time for the question that wakes me up in cold sweats every single night. Hey Mike, what are the rates? Well, according to Mortgage News daily, as of February 20, 2025, the average 30 year conventional fixed mortgage rate is 7.02%, the average 15 year conventional rate is 6.44%, the average 30 year FHA rate is 6.39%, the average 30 year VA rate is 6.41% and the average jumbo rate is 7.35%. Of course, to be clear, these are average market rates provided by Mortgage News Daily and may not reflect the specific rates that you qualify for. Mortgage rates can vary widely depending on factors like your credit score, loan type, down payment, among others. For accurate information about your personal mortgage options, it's important to speak with a licensed mortgage professional like me or your own lender. I got to do that every time. But if the CFPB goes away, maybe not Now. Since about November 1st of 2024, mortgage rates have hovered right around 7%, with the low being around 6.8 in the middle of December last year and the high being around 7.2 in in the middle of January. So is 7% just the new norm for mortgage rates? Is there any hope on the horizon or are we just destined to be stuck with lucky or unlucky as it were? Number seven? Well, inflation has remained sticky and if unemployment stays where it is, don't expect the Fed to adjust their rates anytime soon. Elon and Doge are working to hammer away at the US deficit, which could help the 10 year treasury, but realistically it wouldn't. I wouldn't expect any real impact for at least another 12 months, and while it does kind of look like the economy more and more isn't humming along quite the way we thought it should. President Trump intends to make it his personal mission to make sure that it doesn't t under his watch. So all that just basically means that unless we have some sort of black swan event like a large bank failure or stock market crash, I wouldn't expect rates to dramatically change anytime soon. 7% or thereabouts, is going to be where we stay for a little while. We might dance a little bit with 6.875 sometime soon, but don't expect to get much less than that. Meanwhile, prices are starting to come down a little, and homes in many markets are sitting on the listing reports longer and longer. The rates are probably where they're going to be for the foreseeable future, so just keep hustling because cheap money isn't bringing a wave of buyers into the market anytime soon. 2025 is the year you're going to have to work for every single deal. You get to fire up that cell and get your face out there on the Internet. Now realize that high rates are not a bad thing, and if in fact you are a realtor or a mortgage professional, then it might actually be a good thing for you. Mainly there's less competition because if you've made it this far in the recent real estate adventure, then you are well ahead of the pack. In 2024 we lost almost 70,000 realtors compared to 2023, and in 2025 it's expected to be worse. And as for mortgage lenders, we saw the lowest level of transactions in 2024 that we've seen since 1995. And when all the numbers shake out, it's expected to see over a 25% drop of Ellos leaving the business in 2024. So if you're still around, it means that you're doing something right. Now how do you navigate this high rate and high home price environment? Well, the simple answer is focus and leverage. Focus on your clients, whether that be buyers, sellers, realtors, whatever. Get personal with them. Meet in person, call them on the phone or check in on social media with a hello and not a request for a referral. Make personal contact in relationships, a focus, and then leverage technology for everything else. Organize and prioritize your day with calendars, task reminders and rigorous scheduling. Learn how to use AI to help make everything that you do be more efficient and effective. AI is literally the most powerful tool that has ever been unleashed on the population and every day that you spend not finding ways for it to manage your business and your life is a day that you fall further behind your competition, because right now is an opportunity regardless of if you see it or not. So don't worry about rates and prices because there's nothing that you can do about it. Instead, focus on you and your business and turn 7% into your lucky number for 2025. All right, time for our buyer tip of the week. Now, with the market in North Texas and all around the country shifting right in front our eyes, as a buyer, how do you know how much you should offer on a home? Offer over offer under what's the right move? Well, Amy Cornell from Compass Real Estate got a tip for you.

So if you're a home buyer in the market right now, you should be asking your agent for market analysis in the area that you're looking for. So you should have a good idea of what homes are selling for. And then individually, when you are interested in making an offer on a house, go ahead and ask your agent for a market analysis of that specific property. That's going to be a similar analysis to what they would do if they were going in to list the property. And it's going to give you a heads up on what the appraiser will likely say.

All right, guys, as I mentioned last time, each week in our housing data segment, we're going to focus on a particular market in Texas. We started with DFW last week because that's where I live. This week we're headed south to the state capital get a little weird. So Austin, Texas, here we come. All right, first up, how longs are homes actually sitting on the market right now? Well, back in 2022, when everyone and their dog was moving to Austin, homes were snatched up on average about every 15 days, according to the Austin Board of Realtors. Now fast forward to November of 2024, and that number's popped up to 75 days on average, sitting on the market. And unfortunately, it hasn't improved with more time. Redfin says that in January of this year, it hit 96 days. That's three full months of waiting for home sellers. Now compare that to the 65 days in late 2023, and it's very clear the market in Austin is cooling down faster than a Topo Chico on ice. But that's good news for buyers and good news for agents who want more clients to come into the market. All right, now let's talk a little bit about the dollars, average list price and home values. So at the 2022 peak in May, Zillow's home value index hit 687,000. Think of that as like your typical home price on the market. Sellers though were dreaming a lot bigger because they were listing homes around 750 to $800,000. Riding that bidding war wave. Now flash to 2025 and as of mid February, that Zillow value is down to $554,000, a 19% drop in list prices. They've slid from 1.08 million in 2024 to 977,000 right now per team price real estate. Now that's still triple what you pay and say Lubbock, but way off the 2022 highs when every house felt like a gold mine. Keep in mind that this isn't a crash, but more of a correction from the pandemic mania when prices shot up 29% in a single year 2021. Now sales volume is another wild swing as well, just like the rest of the country. In 2024, nearly 30,000 homes sold across the Austin metro area per the Austin border Realtors, down just a bit from 2023's 30,000. And in December of 2024 it clocked in at just over a thousand sales in Travis county alone. But January of 2025, just 485 homes sold, a 6% dip from last year. And when you compare that to the 2000 and 20s boom when there was 3,892 homes sold in just one month, you could possibly say that Austin's market has gone from a sold out ACL fest to a chill backyard jam. Steady, but definitely slowing. Now what about median home values? This is the number that sellers really care about. Well, November 2024 had Austin at 435,000 metro wide. That's up 2 1/2% from 2023, says Unlock MLS. But early 2025 is kind of a mixed bag because Redfin has it at 515,000. Team Price has it at 597,000, which is down from the 675,000 in 2024. And at the 2022 peak, Austin hit 550,000 plus with a 41% surge over two years. And now, well, some say it's down 12% from that high and others are seeing slight gains. So while there is some disagreement, depending on who you ask, values are coming down. But again, that's from the fastest appreciating market in the country in 2021. So you got to expect some sort of correction. Now how about inventory? Well, back in 2022, Austin had 0.8 months of supply, so basically nothing. And Now November of 2024 hit 4.8 months in late 2024. Even touched 5 1/2 months per orchard in early 2025. Estimates are around 4 months total. But if you go back to pre pandemic, two and a half months was kind of the normal. So right now, Austin is a buyer city. More homes, more, more choices. And it's a far cry from the One house with 20 offers days, but still the most expensive metro area in Texas. So where's Austin headed for 2025? Well, like all of Texas, the Austin market is still cautiously optimistic. Zillow's betting on a tiny 0.4% dip, while Norada seems slow growth. But the Home Buying Institute thinks prices might dip more before they do come back. And the Austin Board of Realtors calls it predictable, with 17 billion in 2024 sales and luxury homes still ranking in the 4.1 billion range. Tech jobs and new arrivals will keep the demand humming, but just not the frenzy that we saw in the early 2000 and twenties. So you could say the market's on pause. Buyers have leverage, sellers have equity, and you can even call that market balanced. Well, that is your market update for Austin. It's cooling off, but it's still hot in its own little way. What do you think? Buy now or wait it out? Hit me up on X and share your thoughts. And next week we are headed further south, or as many call it, Houston. So tune in next week for a look at the oil refinery capital of America. All right, time for our agent tip of the week. Realtors. With the market changing in so many ways, it's crucial to keep your clients informed with the latest up to date information. And Amy Cornell with Compass Real Estate is here to remind you that when clients ask, what would you do? You don't have to make the decision. For instead, try this.

Agents in the market right now are constantly getting frustrated that their clients are saying, but what would you do? Well, some of that is because you hold more information than they do about the process or about the property that they're interested in. So make sure that you're helping your client understand that process and the information that that is available to you about their house by providing them that home that they're considering so that they can make the informed decision and you don't have to.

Okay, next up, my newest segment called Weekly Wildcard. On this week's episode, is the end of the world near or is it just another Tuesday? The economy is, I would say, confusing. Texas has taken over the world and is dealing with its own drama and the housing market just doesn't make any sense. Plus, Elon, Doge and the Pentagon, if things haven't been crazy enough already, better get your popcorn out for this one. So NASA just upped the odds of an asteroid smacking the Earth in 2032 from 2.6% to. To 3.1%. That's the highest risk assessment ever. So if you're debating on whether or not to refinance or buy a house, maybe don't wait until 2033. And speaking of disasters, US credit card debt just hit $1.2 trillion. At this point, the asteroid might be the cheaper problem to solve. And right now, the top 0.1% of people now own 14% of the US wealth. And that's the highest level since the 80s. But at the same time, 1 in 15Americans is supposedly a millionaire, which sounds really cool until you realize that most of them are just likely millionaires in debt. And if any of those millionaires happen to work for the government, well, their net worth might be taking a hit sometime soon. Because recently the FHA announced it's laying off up to 40% of its workforce. Awesome. Fewer employees. Can't run any slower, can it? And breaking news. Texas is officially the fastest growing state in the US and could overtake California by 2045. And the translation for that is buy a house now before our traffic looks like LA's. And if you're thinking of buying a house, listen to this. Right now, across the country, homes are selling at 1.8% below asking price. That's the biggest discount in two years. And across Texas, they're also sitting on the market for 56 days on average. That's the longest in five years. And at the end of 2024, 39% of DFW households were at risk of eviction or foreclosure. And that's a major red flag, proving that some might be thriving, but many are barely hanging on. So sellers, time to get creative. Price cuts, closing costs, maybe throw in an asteroid proof bunker. I don't know. There is possible. Good news for Texas homeowners, though. Texas comptroller says that the legislature could use the 24 billion in surplus funds for property tax relief. Will they actually do it? Who knows? But hey, at least they said it out loud. And meanwhile, state legislator David Lowe wants toll roads to end once they're paid off and proposed a new bill saying just that. It's a wild idea, I know. Especially considering we all just kind of assume that toll roads were just a lifetime subscription. While we're at it. Here's a few more wild ideas. Elon Musk says he's discussing a Doge dividend tax refund with Trump. Yes, we've officially reached the point where meme coins might fund our tax refunds. Meanwhile, the Pentagon is being pressed by Doge and supposedly planning historic budget cuts, which probably just means that they'll still spend trillions they can't account for. But it's just going to be under a for the boldest move of all these. Right now there's talk of completely abolishing the irs. So if you're thinking of filing a little bit late this year, maybe stall it out, see how this thing plays out. All right, so what we learned today, the market's shifting, Texas is taking over. Tolls are still a scam, and we may or may not need to dodge an asteroid. Either way, stay sharp, watch the market. And if Elon starts issuing tax refunds in Doge, well, we'll cover that next week. Next up, time for our seller tip of the week. Are you considering selling your home or worse, absolutely needing to sell your home sometime soon? Well, Amy Cornell of Compass Real Estate is here to tell you how to get your home sold fast. Little warning, if you're a seller, you may not want to hear this, but it's absolutely the truth.

If you're a home seller in the market right now, really consider getting your house listed at the right price. To start, don't go at this market with an attitude of that you're going to go at a higher number and then drop it every so often till a buyer reacts. You want those buyers to react at the very beginning. The best way to do that is to make sure that you're pricing on the number. That means that if you're considering a number between 550 and 525 to sell your house, a better number to list than 5:35 would be to go ahead and list it at 525. At 525:25, you're going to be able to see consumers that are looking from 500,000 all the way up to 550. And you're going to cover more ground and have more eyes on your property.

All right, let's jump to our main and final story of the day. The real estate pros Newsflash. AI is here, but it isn't here to steal your job. However, it can make your life so much easier if you just learn how to use it. So if you're writing every listing description from scratch, manually editing Your videos or chasing dead leads, you're doing it the hard way. So Today I've got 10 AI tools that'll help you save time, generate leads and market smarter so you can close more deals without working 24 7. And you might even be able to clone yourself so you can take over the planet. Sort of. All right, here we go. Number one, ChatGPT. Your AI assistant for everything. You already know it. It's just like an unpaid intern that actually gets stuff done. Listing description, email templates, blog posts, buyer and seller scripts. All done in mere seconds. So quit staring at blank screens with creative mind blocks and let ChatGPT kickstart your brain. Number two, Zapier. Automate your business without lifting a finger. Zapier connects all your apps and automates all of your busy work. Got a new lead for Zillow. Zapier can auto send email, follow ups, add them to your CRM, schedule a call on your calendar, all without you lifting a finger. The work smarter and not harder. And oh by the way, if you don't know how to set it up, ask your good friend Chat GPT how to and he'll tell you. Number three, Canva Magic writes. It's an AI powered graphic design tool. Inside of Canva, we all know Canva's already a lifesaver, but Magic, right takes it up to another level. All you do is type what you need, like just listed flyer and boom. Instant design. No more agonizing over freaking fonts for 30 minutes. AI makes you look like a design pro, even if your creativity peaked with stick figures. Number four Descript. It's an AI video and podcast editing tool. If you create video content, Descript transcribes, edits and even removes filler words like and. And you can edit your videos by just deleting text instead of scrubbing through all the video clips. So what used to take three hours you can get done in just 20 minutes. Number five opus clip. One of my personal faves. It takes long form videos like my podcast here and turns them into viral short clips. So if you're making videos on the reg, Opus Clip finds the best moments, adds captions and formats them for Instagram Reels, TikToks and YouTube shorts. So it's more content with less effort. And that's the dream, right? Number six, Homebot. It's an AI tool for automated client follow up. These days, keeping in touch with your past clients is key, but it's hard fitting in time for everything, right? Well, Homebot sends personalized home value and equity Reports each and every month branded specifically to you. It's an automatic follow up arsenal instead of just sending that hey, just checking in email. Number seven Structurally, it's an AI chatbot for lead nurturing. Sick of Zillow leads ghosting you. So structurally is an AI chatbot that text leads, answers questions and keep them engaged until they're ready to talk to a human, aka you. Think of it as a 24. 7 virtual ISA that never takes a vacation. Number 8 remind AI powered predictive analytics Looking to find sellers before they actually list well. Remine analyzes mortgage data, equity and ownership trends to predict which homeowners in your market are likely to sell soon. This helps you get in front of sellers before your competition does. Number nine ChatGPT's custom GPTs. These are your personalized AI assistants. Are you looking for an assistant that writes like you, types like you, and sounds like you? Well, custom GPTs let you train ChatGPT to match your marketing style, lead responses and follow up scripts. Just imagine a digital version of yourself answering frequently asked questions and generating content while you focus on closings. And by the way, I teach a class on how to create these GPTs, so if you want to learn more, give me a shout. And last but certainly not least, number 10, 11 Labs clone your voice and scale yourself. You ever wish you could be in two places at once? Well, 11 Labs clones your voice so you can create market updates without recording, send personalized messages automatically, and scale yourself without actually working more. It's your voice, your face, your brand. Fully automated. Just be careful in having too many clones out there. It can get a little ugly. Just ask Michael Keaton. And by the way, that's a multiplicity reference if anybody's ever seen that movie. And if you haven't, go check it out because it's a classic. All right guys. There you got it. 10 AI tools that can help you work smarter, market better, and close more deals. Because right now, if you're still doing everything manually, you are wasting time and therefore wasting money. And remember, start small. Pick one or two of these tools and try them out. Because the agents who learn how to leverage AI right now, well, they're the ones that are going to dominate this market it down the road. Well, there you are. Done and done. Hope you got a lot out of today's episode. And if you did, please be sure to subscribe. Share Like Comment all the above. It is cold out there in DFW this week, so stay warm and stay safe. So we can see you back here next week. Until then, be great. Humans just keep grinding. This life is what you make it, so make it great. See you later.