Thinking, when can we start using Tupac songs without royalties?

Yeah.

Death plus 70 years, bro.

Pretty much by the time you like his music.

Everybody likes his music.

Is dead.

Yeah.

Then you can.

Then you can use it.

That's.

That's the litmus test right there, right?

Yep.

Phil, you gonna bring us in?

Welcome back to the number one financial literacy podcast in the world.

Sitting next to me is my partner in crime, Chris Nahibi.

Damn.

You okay?

Yeah.

I had to cough.

I held back again.

You like stroking out?

I am, yeah.

Sitting next to me is my stroking out partner in time.

The one and only Saeed Omar, everybody.

And sitting behind the ones and twos, we have nobody.

All right, let's.

Empty space.

Empty space.

Yeah.

Nobody.

Yeah.

Let's get right into it.

Five star review.

Oh, you got another one.

We got another one.

I really got to monitor the reviews.

This from Vic Ramirez.

Oh, Vic.

Vic don't count, man.

Vic's a review God.

Yeah.

Honestly, he likes to refresh his review every.

Every so often.

We should just say his name the start of every show.

He needs merch, bro.

He doesn't merch.

He does.

You should buy him some merch.

The problem is I'm going to offer him a T shirt.

He's going to.

He's going to request a sweater.

Everybody likes sweaters.

Yeah.

I put you on a timeout when you do that.

Now, I like the.

Which sweater is your favorite sweater?

The military green.

Guard your heart.

You don't even own one of those.

I know, but I want one.

Those are a little bit too short for me in the.

In the midsection.

Okay.

Showing a little bit of midriff for me.

Right.

I have a very embarrassing gym story to tell you at the end of the show, by the way.

Okay.

It hit home hard for me today.

Really?

Yeah, it was.

It was a paradigm shifting moment for me, and I still haven't finished assimilating it, so.

Okay.

Okay, we'll go through it together.

But I think my favorite is the.

The old school vintage logo with the world icon in the back.

And gray.

Heather gray.

Oh, yeah, yeah.

For some reason, that was warm.

It's thick.

You like Warm and thick.

So this from Vic Ramirez.

Hottest pod for financial literacy.

Accurate.

Yeah.

Chris Said and DJ Odun are amazing hosts.

Who was that last person that he met that he mentioned there?

Yeah, yeah.

They think he's taking a leave.

Eternity leave.

Yeah, yeah, exactly.

He's actually trying to be a professional video gamer, so, yeah, we wish him best of luck on his journey.

Yeah.

And we're here to support him, honestly.

He's going to create a twitch account.

It's going to be the higher standard twitch account.

You could follow him and we'll talk financial literacy while playing.

You think there's a market for that?

No.

No.

Okay.

They're amazing hosts with vast knowledge from all segments of personal finance, banking, economics, real estate, and true ways to build wealth.

Thank you, Vic.

They always know how to break down complex topics in economics and finance.

Let's get yachted up.

P.S.

thank you for the episode about financial anxiety and breaking down the 401k.

These hit close to home and it was extremely helpful and top notch.

Yeah, I want to do some more educational content coming up here.

The.

The news as of late has been kind of volatile as much as the data has been volatile.

So I think there's some good opportunities with gaps in time to really talk about that.

But hey, man, we had a fed meeting this week.

We did have a fed meeting this week.

But before you do any of that, if you want to be like, Vic, head over to Apple.

Leave us an honest five star review.

We'll read it right here on the show.

Or head over to Spotify.

If you listen to us on Spot Spotify, you can leave us a five star review there.

Or if you're one of the fans that like to watch the episode on YouTube, make sure you, like, subscribe.

Ring that notification bell.

Do all the moist goody good stuff.

There's only four of you, so we know if you're not doing it.

Yeah, but you were really killing my vibe tonight, I got to tell you.

Am I stumbling a little bit?

I feel like you've been drinking.

Drinking my.

So my wife bought the wrong flavor.

Celsius.

There's a wrong flavor?

Yeah.

I don't like Celsius, man.

For some reason it doesn't.

This one not good for me.

Guava.

I don't like anything that's making it makes you think about pooping.

Kiwi guava does that.

Yeah.

Like you have guava.

It tastes good.

Yeah.

And then 10 minutes later, I guarantee by the end of this show, you'll be puck it up.

Yeah.

You're not gonna be having a good, good like, end of the show.

This show, I can guarantee all of you listeners right now say he's gonna push to end this show at an hour long.

Oh, yeah.

Because the guava's gonna be ready.

Guava.

We had a fed meeting.

Don't pivot.

Focus off, pivot.

So we had a fed meeting the 18th and 19th of March.

And the much anticipated rate cut that we expected to not happen.

Well, did not happen.

Did not.

And the Fed came out with some pretty stoic and I think, safe conversation, saying they still expect rate cuts, additional rate cuts in the year, but, you know, it wasn't ready yet.

Data.

Data wasn't there.

There was anything that support it.

They're not going to lean on the political environment and they're going to be somewhat independent.

I considered.

So when the Fed comes out, Jerome Powell comes out.

His speech is not a new speech every single time.

It's just an edited version of the prior speech.

100%.

I've actually commented on this before where there's key words that he just reads off.

I'll replace these three, insert these three.

Yeah.

So there's certain X accounts who will literally go through and take the previous speech.

Yeah.

And they'll redline it against the new speech to tell you what changed.

I love it.

And usually it's only like a couple sentences and a couple key phrases.

And that's why you typically hear in the media like, oh, my God, he said it's transitory.

Right.

Because that was the only thing that changed from the previous conversation.

Or they look at, like, certain catchphrases that he uses repeatedly that just certainly just start one day missing.

They're just like, wait a minute, why didn't that go on?

That's why you got to really tune into.

For the questions at the end.

Yeah.

Questions at the end.

When you do the.

When he does a question and answer at the end of the press conference.

Yeah.

That's where you get the meat and potatoes.

Right.

You see the level of frustration.

Level of frustration.

And at some point in the show, I do want to talk about how the fact that Egypt has had some new discoveries as of late.

Because y'all know I.

When I can't sleep at night, which is pretty much every night, I'm reading about archaeology.

Like, that's my hobby.

You did.

You told me about this today.

I.

I'm.

The inner nerd in me is so goddamn excited for it.

I mean, I am so.

This is such a nerdy, cool thing that I just, I.

I want to share with everybody.

I don't care.

It's financially literate.

Damn it.

You're all gonna hear it tonight.

You seen, by the way, Mr.

Beast, like, stayed in there.

Yeah.

That's creepy.

I wouldn't do that.

You saw that.

I wouldn't do that.

Yeah.

You just watched.

Was it the Great Pyramid of Geezer?

Was it one of the smaller Ones.

I think he went into all of them.

He had full access to all of them.

Yeah, that first.

I'm not even sure that's legal, just for the record.

I mean, I know he's got a lot of money, but I'm pretty sure the Egyptian antiquities would be like, wait, what?

Yeah, he went into some spaces that like, they didn't even know existed.

Yeah, there's a, I mean, there's guided tours where you can like hop into sarcophagus, like burial sites and stuff like that.

And they're like, when we're not looking, you know, if you want to do what you want.

Right.

Yeah.

Like there's just certain kinds of juju that I don't want.

Yeah, that's not for me.

Yeah, yeah.

Like, I'm not the kind of guy who's stepping on graves.

Let's go to a graveyard.

No, let's not do that.

Let's just go get dinner like a normal person.

You know what I mean?

Yeah, I don't need to do all that.

You can tell me a scary story if you want.

Right?

Yeah.

So.

All right.

Today's show is structured in a way where we're going to talk about the narratives in the economy and say, hey, is this real?

Is it not real?

Is there something to be afraid of?

Is it near term, is it long term?

Are the headlines of this, the recession, Is it really coming?

And what does it mean to you?

What does it mean to your portfolio?

Possibly, yeah.

And then we're going to talk a little bit about, well, some of the mortgage environment, rates have come down a little bit and we're at the lowest levels I think we've seen since November of last year.

How does this impact the economy?

And then at the tail end of the show, we're going to talk a little bit about Donald Trump's woes.

There goes our marketing abilities as he's fired and now rehired people at 18 government agencies.

He's been having some political challenges which, which were to be expected again, legislative, judicial, executive branch, the executive doing things without the buy in from the legislative and judicial.

You could have expected a constitutionality challenge, which is what you really got.

So if nothing else, let's start with our good old friends at the Khabisi letter.

Just do it.

And they don't miss, they don't miss the letter.

Breaking.

The Fed makes multiple revisions to their 2025 economic data projections.

And we've talked about on the show how revisions happen and they never get coverage.

Not enough.

You hear about the headline Report about jobs, about gdp, about all these things.

But you never hear about the media going, hey, oh, you remember that number we told you about two weeks ago?

It was revised.

You know, it wasn't accurate.

But the reason why it's so important now is after this Fed meeting, they released their summary of economic projections.

Right.

Where you can actually compare to their last set of projections, which was in December.

That really forecasts how they see the rest of this year playing out.

That's right.

Mm.

I'm so proud of you that.

What?

You know, a couple of years back.

Yeah.

It wouldn't have been you.

No, no.

Yeah.

Now you say it was swagger.

It was swagger.

Yeah.

Swagger up.

Just break it down.

Yeah.

So, among the revisions of the 2025 economic data, the cuts in 2025 GDP growth projections, well, they happened from 2.1 down to 1.7.

So now GDP growth is not projected to go to 2.1%, it's projected to be 1.7.

And all that means to you out there is what they're saying is we see the economy slowing down.

Yeah.

And that's going to be a resounding reoccurring theme, by the way.

So important to know.

Raises.

They rose unemployment forecast from 4.3 to 4.4%.

So unemployment is increasing.

And what that means to you is maybe don't go out looking for a new job right now.

There's not.

It's not a lot of stability out there.

Maybe stay put.

Yeah.

Maybe marinate a little squatty action.

Yeah, Squat a little bit squatty.

Potty.

Right.

Hold the squat.

They also raised PCE inflation forecast from 2.5 to 2.7%.

Inflation going back up the other way.

Oh.

So this thing that we've been tackling the last two and a half years, that's holding rates higher for longer, means that we're probably going to have to keep it here.

Higher for longer.

Should come as no surprise.

They rose core PCE core inflation forecast from 2.5 to 2.8%.

And lastly, well, the Fed sees higher inflation and a weaker economy.

So all of these things are going the wrong way.

The revisions now take gdp, which is supposed to go up, and moves it down, takes the unemployment, which is supposed to go down or stay stable, and goes up incrementally, and inflation on all measures are effectively going up.

Yeah.

So the.

The Fed is basically saying, well, you know what?

All of these things that we've been trying to control, they're going to go the wrong way.

Yeah.

And I think A lot of that probably has to do with, you know, we had the benefit of having energy come down for a little while.

Right?

Because remember from, like, two years ago where there was the Russian Ukraine war that people were really worried about and what that was going to mean for everybody.

So energy levels or energy prices were going up and.

But we've been having shelter come down.

So is it services that they think that are going to really be propping this up?

Because if the cost of goods are going to go up, then that means the cost of the services are also going to have to go up.

Remember just post pandemic how services sector was, like, bomb booming.

Everybody was just, like, so happy to be out of their house.

Like, yeah, Traveling.

It was nuts.

And then we're like, damn.

What, Y'all feeling safe, right?

Y'all just going out?

Just going out.

Everybody's out there just, like, doing their thing.

Right.

It's gonna be weird to tell our kids about what we did during the pandemic.

It's gonna be like this weird story.

People are like, what?

You actually did that?

Like, were there zombies around?

Yeah, yeah.

Like, what were you doing?

Right.

You know, and you'd be like, oh, I just stayed home.

Do you need to go to work?

No, we had to work from home.

Yeah.

You know.

You know what's crazy, too, that since 2020, 80%.

Since the pandemic, 80% of the money in circulation was printed since 2020.

Yeah.

80%.

Yeah.

That's wild.

That's a lot.

That's a lot.

What.

What do we think was going to happen?

The fact that the situation isn't worse than it is now is impressive.

You have, like, a central computer somewhere where someone's like, hey, man, we need to print more money.

And some guy goes, got it.

And he goes.

And then, like, you know, more money prints.

Yeah, that's how that works.

No, no, no, but like some kind.

Of, like, legislative process.

And then it goes through, like, you know, multiple, like, document signing.

And somebody's tracking this, like a bean counter somewhere.

Like, how does it work?

Yeah.

Like, who's really in charge?

I don't know.

I'm.

I'm in the financial system.

Yeah.

Like, I know, like the macro economic.

Like, I know how it's supposed to work, but who's the dude, you know?

Right.

Like, there's got to be someone somewhere who's in charge of this process.

Right.

And he's like, ah, shuck, Steven, we need to print some more dollar bills.

I mean, like, yeah.

And then our debt levels are just gonna continue to go up and then we're just gonna be told that, hey, we'll just sell a five million dollar gold card for people to gain citizenship.

And if we get 10 million people to buy it, then we could pay off half our debt.

Have you ever seen a facility where money is printed?

No.

But you know what one looks like?

I've seen the footage of the paper getting printed, actually.

I've seen them rolling off, like, ink printers.

It just seems kind of weird, right?

Yeah, like we should know.

We should know.

I mean, I would not want to rob said facility.

I'm just saying, like, I want to know where it's at, you know, I'm.

Not saying I want to check the security camera.

Yeah, you know.

You know, did Lethal Weapon have it, right, when they had like, the dryers and the poker chips in it and they were turning.

Yeah, yeah.

Because everything in my life is based off Lethal Weapon.

Yeah, exactly.

The throwback.

All right, so let's talk about some signals of recessionary economies and some trending.

Obviously, the R word has been thrown around a lot lately, okay.

And it would be totally normal for everybody to get caught up and go, whoa, whoa, I'm scared, I'm concerned.

And there's been a lot of volatility in the market.

For a reminder, we did a show on the vix.

VIX is the volatility index.

And as a reminder, we talked a lot about Robert Shiller's narrative economics and how narratives can impact a lot of what people think.

But is there data right now to support the suggestion that a recession might be looming?

Okay, there's certainly an uptick in conversation.

There's certainly an uptick in fear.

But I really want to get down to the brass text.

The granularity of.

Is this really a pressing, immediate concern, or is this more like a couple years out?

Okay, so Bravo's research, another X page that I follow.

This particular signal has flashed only two times since 1960.

Both times, stock rose didn't go down, rose by 20% first, then crashed.

And a crash for reminders.

Any.

Any adjustment in valuation, 20% or more.

Right.

So things are about to get absolutely crazy.

And they have his threat here.

But are they really, though?

That's the question.

Are we experiencing a correction right now, or are we experiencing what could be the beginning of some dark times?

So let's set the stage.

Okay?

The tech sector, particularly the Mag 7, has been getting a little banged up in the ding ding from the short sellers.

Okay?

So we've seen a little bit of those large brand name companies coming down in valuation because short sellers are trading them down.

And you know what?

Sometimes this happens.

I'm not going to give you any real big reason or manifestation as to why.

Just sometimes people short sell stuff down because the market's going to go down.

Okay.

A lot of people jump on a narrative and the short sellers all come in and they short sell the stuff and it drags value down a little bit.

Right.

Sometimes it's just as simple as that, you know?

But the real question is, is, does this really mean that the market is going to have a huge impact?

Well, this is US Federal Reserve's recession probability model.

I'm going to put it in between us here, casually, between you and I, Those great sound effects, I don't even know why I put in post production.

I just rely on you to do them.

Which estimates the chances of a recession occurring within the next 12 months.

And it is just four fallen significantly, significantly similar to only 11 times since 1960.

So to be clear, the probability of recession has not gone up.

It has gone down by this metric, the U.S.

federal Reserve's Recession probability metric.

Now that is calculated from the yield curve.

And we've seen the yield curve come down recently and it's stabilized a little bit.

And with that, mortgage rates came down.

Hold on tight, all you realtors out there.

We're gonna have a whole segment on the mortgage industry coming up.

Mm.

So if the probability of recession's gone down, why are we hearing so much talk about a recession being looming?

Right.

That doesn't.

It's counterintuitive.

Right, right.

Yep.

Side, you're really attractive for an ugly man.

Wait, what?

What?

That's kind of what we're saying in the media.

Thank you.

I think.

Yeah, yeah, that's tangent.

What happened to June today, by the way?

It's.

Oh, can we get out of the way now?

No, that was a little foreshadowing.

No, no, no, no, save it, save it.

It was.

The conversation was okay until the end.

And then I was like, wait, you're not.

You're in shape.

You're pretty in shape for a not in shape guy.

Yeah, yeah, yeah, a lot of that and worse.

Yeah.

So 11 times since 1960, we've seen the probability recession fall off as dramatically as we're seeing it currently now.

So it's gone down very fast.

The probability has gone down almost instantly.

I mean, straight down.

You might be wondering why this model shows recession probabilities declining today.

Right.

Reasonable, reasonable question.

Despite widespread fears of a downturn driven by Donald Trump's tariff policies.

And one of the most aggressive massive stock market drops in three years.

You saw a full week and a half of the stock market going, pew, pew, pew.

Give me your sound effects.

Pew, pew.

So, I mean, there's a lot of headlines.

Right.

But why do you think that was?

I mean, we, we know that in the, in the past week to two weeks, Right.

We know that there was conversations around tariff retaliation.

Well, there was tariffs.

Yeah.

And then the retaliation with uncertainty.

Fear causes people to pull back and go, whoa, whoa, whoa, whoa, whoa.

I'm gonna wait and see.

Yeah.

And then you did have some correction in the stock market, Right.

Because of those tariffs in the beginning.

And then you had Trump come out and say that, you know, I'm not going to rule out the chances of a recession.

Yeah.

And then when you have JP from the hood.

From the hood, Jerome Powell come out and basically say, you know, we don't really know how Trump's policies are really going to affect anything.

We're going to be data dependent.

We're going to wait and see.

We're going.

We actually feel like we're in a good place right now.

Then I think that causes more uncertainty, which causes more volatility.

Right.

Cause nobody in the stock market likes that.

Right.

Uncertainty.

Right.

So that I think is a big reason why we've been seeing what we've been seeing.

You know, if I ever lose my job, there will be signs.

Okay.

If you ever see me putting JP and Donald Trump in a low rider to a Snoop Dogg Song or Dr.

Dre Song.

And it looks just as good as the LeBron Diddy videos you've been see social media, you know, I have lost my job and dedicated myself to just memes.

It's the, it's the LeBron James Diddy.

AI videos with Jay Z.

Oh my God.

With Jay Z.

That, that scare me for the future.

They look so real, right?

So real.

And Jay Z looks so sad.

Yeah.

Because he knows what's.

Cuz he knows what's coming.

It, man.

There's betting odds.

I know, I know.

We can't even talk about it.

Yeah, we can.

Yeah.

There's betting odds that Jay Z was involved in this whole situation.

No.

And more.

More so with the Epstein names.

Oh, yeah.

He was going to be the number one name to come out of that.

Yeah.

I didn't.

Yeah.

I was like, why of all people, him?

I feel like that's a bit of a stretch when you're talking like princes and like royalty.

Yeah.

Jay Z in there is Jay Z at a dating party.

Makes more sense.

No, but, but, but I think what the, what the thought process was, he would get named before anybody else would get named.

Oh, he was the lowest person on the total.

Right.

That's got to suck when you're the lowest billionaire in the room.

It's got to suck when you literally have a lyric that Sundays, I got five passports.

I'm never going to jail.

Yeah.

Awkward for everybody.

All right, so the Fed's recession probability meter.

It works by converting the US Yield curve based on bond spreads into a tool that estimates the 12 month recession risk.

So effectively, when bonds start to stabilize a little bit, the probability of recessions go down because stable market.

Right.

And this has an impact on credit, and we're gonna get to that a little bit.

But looser credit and tighter credit can actually kind of forecast and signal where the market's going.

Right.

So when this model rises above 20%, it signals that the bond spreads are in a posture that makes a recession likely.

Don't worry.

This is too much for you.

We're gonna explain a lot of it.

So don't, don't be listening to going, you know, I got to turn these guys off.

It's just complicated.

I'm gonna go back and listen to the all in podcast.

No, no, no, no, no, no, no.

All in for you.

Yeah, only if David Sachs is on.

Yeah, we like him.

He's cool.

First of all, no one's going to buy that from you, okay?

You're a crypto czar hater.

Okay?

We all know this and we also know that you like Chathe Brown.

Yeah.

All right, so in other words, credit markets are tightening in this scenario.

So when credit markets tighten, the probability recession goes down.

When they loosen, probability recession goes up.

If you're giving money out to everybody, right.

Then free money is moving around and credit's super loose, recessionary.

Right.

It's around the corner.

Yeah.

Because you know that there could be credit defaults, there could be things that trigger as a result, when credit's getting super tight and it's hard to get money, probability goes down.

Because they're saying, hey, they're responding to the things.

Now, what's really weird is that isn't always the way it works.

As a matter of fact, there's been some interesting trends historically where that's not the way that it works.

Two times in history in particular, where we've seen similar trace to what we're seeing in the economy now.

I'll explain.

So historically, this model has had a strong track record, which is why we're talking about it today.

Right.

Because, you know, we're going to break down these, these models that seem to have predictive abilities and have been right historically.

Every recession since 1960 has been accompanied by a rising probability of this indicator.

Yet we're going down.

Right.

And yet we're hearing all this recession talk.

Yeah.

Seems kind of counterintuitive.

It does.

Right.

For an attractive, ugly guy.

Right, Exactly.

So what makes this instance unique is that no recession actually materialized.

So a lot of what we're seeing now, trend wise, would typically have to happen after a recessionary economy.

Now, if you want to throw on the tinfoil hat real quick, we've been.

Kind of saying, actually had this in here.

I was talking to an older cousin this past weekend.

Does he wear pearls?

No, he does not.

That older cousin's only six months older, but he, he.

This, this.

I was saying, like, you know, we're talking about how Trump didn't rule out the possibility of a recession.

Yeah.

And he's like, I don't know what any.

I don't know what anyone's talking about.

I feel like we've been in recession.

Talk to any business owner out there.

Yeah.

They're going to tell you that we've been.

I felt like we've been in a recession this entire time.

You know, business owners don't feel that way.

Immigration attorneys, they are crushing it in business right now.

And I was.

I actually did a little bit of prep work on this for the show.

Immigration attorneys.

No, that's what businesses have not been feeling like they've.

We've been in a recession this entire time.

So you got to look at anything that gets propped up, you know, by funding.

Government funding.

Egg retailers.

Egg retailers.

Right.

No.

But anything that got a lot of help from the Inflation Reduction Act.

But they're feeling it now, though.

Really?

Yeah.

Because as Donald Trump's pulling back on Fed.

Fed spending and the volatility.

Yeah.

Government contractor, you're going, wait a minute.

Right.

And how concentrated are you in certain, like, government sectors?

Right.

So you got to think like clean energy.

Right.

Like solar companies or even Tesla benefited a lot over the last two years.

Or companies that are making batteries or making chips that we were struggling with.

Chips.

Chips.

Manufacturing chips here instead of getting it from outside the country.

Now they're probably going to start to feel it more and more.

Well, there were two other similar times like this in history.

For those of you out there going, okay, what are these guys talking about?

And more why 1967 and 1999 and 1999 should stand out to you.

Not only because Prince wore assless chaps in his rotic city and he's going to party like it's 1999.

Right.

And if that doesn't mean something to you, shame on you.

Okay?

Shame on all of you.

That man was an icon.

He was an icon.

Not one that.

I see this.

When you lie to the listeners, it reflects badly on the show.

I enjoyed the music of Michael Jackson more.

Making sure we clarify music.

Okay.

Right.

Right, right, right, right, right, right.

But I could see how people would like Prince.

It's not like I can't see it.

Prince was an incredibly talented musician.

He played an instrument and did all that.

I mean, plus his Super Bowl.

His super bowl halftime show was the greatest of all time.

He's not dancing like MJ, though, saying.

Purple Rainbow in the Rain.

He ain't dancing like MJ though.

Are you serious?

I'm.

I'm.

Yeah.

I'm being dead serious.

What are you talking about?

Come on.

Meow.

Come on.

I'm not saying he's not a good dancer, but he's not dancing like MJ is what I'm saying.

No, he.

He could dance.

Not like mj.

Come on.

He's saying he's a shuffler.

It's hard to do that with heels on, bro.

He's a shuffler.

He's LMFAO.

Before LMFAO.

Yeah.

So following the September 1999 signal, the S&P climbed another 20% over the next 12 months.

Didn't go down, went up.

That rally ultimately did end in a major market top in 2000 as the dot com bubble collapsed.

Okay.

Okay.

A similar story played out in 1967.

The S&P surged 20% over the next two years before peaking then dropping 30% in the next downturn.

So the last two times this has happened where you haven't had a recessionary economy, but you've seen this trend go down the way that it has.

You saw a rally by 20% or more and then a pretty massive correction.

Okay.

So this is a commonality amongst similar situated traits with this index.

So.

And then I got this here for everybody that I think is a little helpful because I knew we were going to talk about this tonight.

In case you ever hear these terms thrown around, I got some, some basic definitions for everybody.

All right, so when you hear, when you hear in the media, they talk about a pullback, right?

That's generally a 5 to 10% decline.

When you talk about it, when you start hearing a Correction, we're talking 10 to 20%.

Anything above 20%, we're now talking about a bear market and potentially a crash right now.

You also have to put your thinking cap on too.

If we experience a 20% decline out of nowhere in the real estate market, is it really a crash after the 45% gains that we just experienced over the last four or five years?

By definition it is.

By definition it is, but.

Or is that really a correction to where it should be?

Right.

So certain things you have to think about.

Right.

I think these definitions are a lot more amorphous and fluid than people typically give them.

It really comes down to how they're spun in the media.

I hate to say that because it means that anything could be a crash or anything could be a correction.

It really depends on the perception.

But if you're told there's a market crash but no one's scared, is that really a crash?

Nobody's.

If no one's concerned, everyone's like, eh, it was needed.

Yeah.

Home values went up, you know, 60% over the last couple years.

We lost 20% recently.

That's okay.

But I, I think the reason why we've been experiencing what we have been in the stock market as of late is even though guys like you and I and some of the people that maybe we respect in this space have, have been, have been echoing that we've been in a recession this entire time, dating back to 2022.

Right.

Yeah.

When we first started doing the podcast.

RIP Noria Robini.

Yeah.

We're no longer part of this podcast.

Yeah.

And no longer get in the media.

Yeah, exactly.

You endorse crypto, bro, you're out.

Get your own coin token, you're out.

But now the word recession, as you've noticed, as you've noted here, it's hitting main media.

Right?

Yeah.

Because there's just been.

I mean, this is the problem too is it's been so spoken about for so long, there really is nothing data wise that suggests a recession is looming.

I don't know, man.

Give me a data point which suggests, even this suggests you're going to go up 20 more in the market.

GDP now predicting Q1 negative GDP already.

So boom, you got half of it right there.

Yeah, but that's only one metric.

And J.P.

morgan more accurate as you get closer.

And J.P.

morgan just came out and increased their odds at a recession.

They're at, they're now at a 40% chance that we hit a recession again.

That's fine.

Look, I hear you, and I'm not discrediting those things.

Those are all probabilities.

Right.

But they're not pointing to a particular data point, which is if those probabilities are correct and we do hit those numbers, then I would say you've got a data point that's accurate.

The thing that is concerning to me, and I actually wanted to get your take on this, we for a long time on this show, repeatedly, maybe every episode or every other episode, we were talking about the inverted yield curve.

Yeah, right.

And that's like 10 out of the last 10 times, baby, we.

You get that, you get in recession within the next 18 months at least.

But I will say asterisk here.

We also did say after the longest yield curve inversion in history, it should take longer than we've seen historically to hit that recession.

So that's my point.

And that's what.

And that scares me.

Like, if it takes longer, does that just mean the pendulum is going to take longer to swing back and it's going to hit that much harder?

So I like to use physics as a way to explain economic probabilities because it really does carry the movement of the economy.

Carries with momentum like physics, in the.

Way Terence Howard uses physics.

Or no, those are made up numbers.

One plus one is one, one plus one is two.

But one times one is also two, because you can't multiply two things and get one.

I'm Terrence Howard and I've got a copyright on this man.

If you haven't seen that, you got to do yourself a favor.

Go check this out.

Sorry I had to bring that up.

And when I passed up on Iron Man, I knew that they didn't understand the math of my salary.

Trust me, they passed on you, my guy.

They didn't understand that one Terrence Howard times another.

Terrence Howard is two.

Terrence Howard's.

I know.

And I can't give them two.

He wanted two paychecks.

That's what he wanted.

So if I could.

So I reached out to Neil DeGrasse Tyson to have this conversation about Iron Man.

He always looks like he's like so emotional, right?

He looks like he's gonna cry every time.

Yeah, every time.

And he sounds like it.

Yeah, that.

That's.

He's so passionate.

All you gotta do is cry voice.

And people think that I'm crazy, but Neil would not.

Is he still getting hired for roles?

No.

Hell no.

Now he's.

Now it's done, right?

50 Cent put him on power to clown him.

He's like that.

You know, 50 is like that.

Terrence, you're in the scene.

Don't say anything.

Just look at the camera and look like you're going to cry.

So just be.

You just do.

Do what you do.

Just your action.

It's.

You let him cook.

Yeah, he fell off big time.

Don Cheadle stepped in there.

Like, I got this.

You know, it's bad when they cast a dude who don't even look like you.

Yeah, I know.

They're like, you know, we just want to w.

Boy.

Like they did with Aunt Vivian.

Yeah.

Fresh Fritz.

Yeah.

You just go replace aunt Viv.

You just.

Completely different color palette.

Yeah, that's completely.

No longer had.

Got dance moves.

Like, no one was like, you know what?

Should we get something that looks like the previous Aunt Viv?

Because this one looks very.

I'll say this, but the.

The second Aunt Viv looked more like an auntie.

Like, I think she did the more relatable, but more.

The whole first season, I was like, I don't know.

Yeah, I don't know.

I like her more.

I don't know how.

How this is going to work, but honestly, I did like her more.

She seemed like a nicer person.

Person.

Yeah.

Yeah.

The other one had rbf.

She had rbf.

That was a problem.

She was scary.

Yeah.

Why are you angry all the time?

She was.

Yeah.

She was more intimidating than Uncle Phil.

Yeah, it's a problem, Rip.

I never watched any of the remakes, by the way.

Oh, neither did I.

Yeah.

So let's talk about retail sales coming in weaker than expected.

This from CNN, your favorite.

Another bad sign of the U.S.

economy.

Retail sales rose 0.2% in February from the prior month, the Commerce Department said Monday, up from January's downwardly revised 1.2% decline.

That was much lower than the 0.7% increase economists projected in a fact set.

Poll figures are adjusted for seasonal swings, but not for inflation.

Weak consumer spending figures are adding to concerns the US Economy is slowing and perhaps heading into.

Ready for it.

Ready.

What do you want to say next recession?

Look, it's a pretty good future.

Once again, Monday's retail report didn't ease those fears.

Spending last month declined the most at department stores, negative 1.7%, restaurants and bars at negative 1.5%, and gasoline stations at negative 1%.

Meanwhile, sales were up online and at health stores, rising 2.4% and 1.7%, respectively.

See how incrementally small these increases and decreases are?

And yet we're throwing around words like recession.

Exactly.

I mean, that seems like a big leap.

Yeah, it's cooling.

These numbers were also down like this several months ago.

And you don't.

You weren't throwing around the R word back then.

Well, maybe.

Here's why.

Executives at America's retail stores have recently warned of consumers feeling stretched out and becoming cautious of their spending.

Some stores have said that they will need to raise prices if Trump's trade war spirals out of control.

Mm.

We're just all gonna pontificate.

Yeah.

All out here just pontificating.

And I know we don't.

Like.

I know on this show, it's hard to really lean on those consumer surveys or any survey data, really.

Right.

We.

Yeah, the survey groups are always smaller.

Than you expect, a lot smaller than we.

And you never know.

It could be controlled.

Right.

To paint whatever picture they want, they want to paint.

We're not saying they're lying to you.

We're just not saying they're giving you the whole picture.

Yeah.

But right now, the sentiment across the board for consumers is.

It's down.

People are.

They're saying that people are worried.

They're worried about job stability.

It's true.

They're worried about where the economy's going.

So.

But one month of worry and one month of, frankly, small pullback does not a recession make.

See, I sound like Yoda.

Sound wise, powerful.

I mean, how much do you think it could have to do with, you know, people maybe not getting bonuses this past year or pay.

We know.

We know this.

Pay increases that people got.

It didn't help them with the.

The inflation that they had been experiencing over the last couple years.

Well, you got years of inflation.

Their buying power is.

Is down big.

Yeah, I think so.

And I think you got high credit, you got defaults that are stacking up.

There's a lot of things that are on the horizon.

Tertiary kind of field that.

That could absolutely escalate into what I think are recessionary indicators.

But right now, the core data does not say recession yet, and everyone's throwing this around, pontificating.

Here's a quote from.

From one of these quote executives.

Our customers continue to report that their financial situation has worsened over the last year as they have been negatively impacted by ongoing inflation.

Todd Vasos, chief executive officer of Dollar General, said last week in an earnings call, many of our customers report they have only enough money for basic essentials, which, with some noting, they have had to sacrifice even on the necessities.

Meanwhile, Walmart, America's biggest retailer, expects sales and profits to slow this year.

John David Rainey, the company's chief financial officer, in an earnings call last month, pointed to, quote, uncertainties related to consumer behavior and global economic and geopolitical conditions, end quote.

So again, they're all forecasting this to happen, but again, somebody forecasting these things to happen in a small incremental, like one.

One and half percent drop.

Again, these are not, like, super recessionary.

Now, if we have this month after month after month for several months, okay, now, you got some trending, right?

But one data point does not.

If you go on a date with somebody.

Right.

If you were.

Imagine 50 years ago when you were single, right?

50.

Yeah.

You went on a date with somebody.

Yeah.

And you had one bad.

Where am I going?

Where.

Where am I going?

Where am I taking them for you?

Yeah, man.

Someplace they serve soup.

Probably a deli.

No, I'm not a soup guy.

You don't know me.

You want to get somebody, get pickles, Right.

I just.

I just started liking pickles.

Pickles are amazing.

Yeah.

They are very underrated Grillos.

Thank me later.

Yeah.

Grillo's pickles.

The firest pickle out there.

I was talking to a co worker.

I was telling them a story from back in the day on about a friend that I know that took a girl out on her first date once.

The day was so bad, and he knew it was going to be so bad out the gate, because when the waiter came and asked for their drinks, the girl asked for order to Mr.

Pibb.

Whoa.

You.

That.

That would fly in Oklahoma, man.

But no, hold on first.

That's a lot of confidence, Mr.

Pibb.

Yeah.

For the waiter to come.

It's your first date.

You'd be like, you guys got Mr.

Pibb.

I mean, you can't just ask for a water.

How about a soda?

You got.

You got a Coke.

That's.

That's acceptable.

I'll never forget.

He's like.

He's like, I had to end it early.

And then we were all at the gym.

We're all at the gym playing ball.

And then he showed up.

We're like, I thought you were on a date.

He's like, yeah, ended early.

I went on a date once.

I'll never forget.

My dad set me up with this girl, right?

And I only went on one date with her.

That was it.

And we went to a restaurant in my house, and she spent the entire time, like, belittling me.

Oh, God.

Like, talking down to me, like.

Because she was like, I'm better than you.

Or, like, you.

She was.

She Was in law school at the time, but she hadn't graduated.

Okay.

And I had already graduated law school, but I didn't practice law.

Okay.

And she felt that I was inferior to her or something.

Oh.

Like.

Oh.

And the whole time she was just, like, trashing me.

It was the weird.

And I'm like, yo, this is.

This is a weird, like an ego thing.

Like, you just met me.

It was like a blind date.

Yeah.

This is really how you want this to go?

Yeah.

And then she was.

I had a great time.

And I'm like, this is me the whole time.

Like, that was a good time.

I'm sure your ego feels good about this.

Yeah, yeah.

Never spoke to her again.

Yeah, Terrible, terrible.

So imagine I'm on.

I'm on a first date.

You were going with that.

Where we going with that?

We all know you don't go on dates.

Yeah.

Come on.

No.

You guys are in arranged marriage, right?

Hey, better.

I'm not.

I'm not an arranged marriage, first of all.

Let me get that out there.

They have a better success rate, but.

They do have a better success rate.

Hard to deny that statistic.

Arranged marriages have a higher probability of not getting divorced than a non arranged marriage.

Let that sink in.

Yeah.

That's weird, right?

Because you're afraid of getting killed if you don't stand.

Yeah.

Some Minaj talked about this in his special.

Did he really?

Yeah, he's like.

Imagine like he got his dad got arranged to.

To his mom.

It's like going and meeting her like Tinder with no profile pic.

I know lots of couples that had arranged marriages.

I gotta be honest.

You do?

Oh, yeah.

Like, older couples.

I don't know anybody, though our age.

I know, I know.

Oh, yeah.

Yeah.

Older generation.

And they honestly seem like the happiest.

They seem pretty happy.

Pretty happy?

Yeah.

There's like an understanding.

And like, you.

You'll see them and you go, like, what?

Y'all are good match.

Like, how did they know?

Right?

Like, back in the day, like, your.

Their parents must have been like, all right, listen, you know, Kevin's son's kind of an asshole.

No, I mean that.

That.

That part of the world, though, that.

That comes from that they knew.

They knew.

And it's like there's a.

I think a greater appreciation for.

Oh, this family is co.

Signing for this person.

Yeah, there was something to be said about that, Court.

There's something there.

There's definitely something there.

But you.

You can't adopt that here in the US because people don't look at it.

Clearly my dad can't do it because you know what happened when I went out to somebody got berated for.

He tried.

He tried, and I had to pay for it.

Thank you for insulting me.

I'm gonna pay for this.

All right, cool.

Yeah, yeah.

All right, let's talk about mortgages for a little bit.

Mortgage rejections are at their highest level since the great financial crisis.

Okay.

That means something.

And to quote this, MFers are so broke they can't even rob their own piggy bank anymore.

This is a quote from Darth Powell.

For the record, I did not cuss.

I'm reading somebody else abbreviated.

Yeah, yeah.

So if you know what that means, shame on you.

Right?

But yeah, basically, mortgage refinance rejections are pretty high.

They're the highest they've been, you know, frankly, ever.

I mean, they're getting.

They're getting close.

Let's move on to another fun statistic.

Existing home sales came in at 4.26 million annualized in February 2025, which just happens to be the lowest transaction level for February and 14 years.

Lowest level.

I know we talked about January.

January was also low.

It was low, but it's always low.

It's always, though, when we said that the number one time to, you know, sell your home is around that middle time in April.

Yeah, April, May, April, May.

So I've been kind of waiting to see what happens then.

So for, for, in context, typically speaking, about 75 of the mortgage businesses refinances historically.

Historically.

But that has changed dramatically because people's rates are so low.

And this whole lock, in effect, these sales that we're talking about now in February being the lowest been in 14 years, down about 32% from the pandemic peak.

Not good for the housing market.

Buyer demand is still dropping despite the fact that rates have come down.

It's.

It's honestly crazy.

So I've been like, locked in on my Redfin app, right.

And I've just taken a look around to see.

Why do you do this to yourself?

Just to see what everybody else is doing and just to kind of see what's going on with, you know, are people cutting their listing prices?

Okay.

Was it.

I'm just kind of curious, you know.

You got way too much free time on your hand, but it's fine.

No, it's just another data point that I like to.

I like to follow the hand gesture.

When you say data point.

The data point, not the daddy points that.

Oh, wow.

So when you're, when you're comparing homes, right.

The Metric that a lot of people like to use is the price per square foot.

Yeah.

To really see if you're.

I've been a fan of that, but I get why.

Yeah, you get why.

It's.

It's easier to compare as far as value goes.

Right.

Yeah.

And I do that a lot too.

I mean, I will look at it.

I just don't think it's the primary indicator.

It's not the primary, but the range that I'm seeing around my area, it's so vast that I'm like, what's going on?

Yeah, some people are adjusting, some people aren't.

Yeah.

It's literally in the.

So I'll just say in the mid, mid four hundreds to high seven hundreds.

Yeah.

The swing.

I'm like, what?

This is all within a four mile radius?

Yeah.

It makes no sense.

It doesn't.

And it won't for a while because a lot of uncertainty, a lot of instability.

People are really worried.

And one hand, you got a lot of real estate agents that are out there saying, okay, now's a great time because you got rates below 7%, they're in the sixes again.

And you know what, this is actually a good rate by historical standards.

That's true.

8% on average is probably your, you know, your average number.

Yeah.

But.

But that doesn't really.

Doesn't account for homes being expensive.

Exactly.

But this is really driven off uncertainty and people being uncomfortable where the market may be going.

And they're so tight financial that you're having applications being rejected at the highest cadence you've seen in a long time.

Think about that.

If you're one of those people that are willing to bite the bull and say, okay, you know what, we're going to get in and we'll just, we'll refi out of this raid down the road.

Even though I don't.

We say on the show, turbulent times, man.

Yeah.

Not so easy to do right now.

And then they, they go for it and they're getting rejected.

Yeah.

That's happening at, again at a very, very high rate.

Yeah.

I mean, uncommonly high.

Remember we talked about the.

And I'm taking a bit of a pivot here because I want to get to Egypt because I'm so excited about it inside.

Look at the clock.

How dare you.

You looking at the clock?

I look at you and you're by the clock.

No, no, don't.

Don't be that guy.

You had to turn your head the whole way around.

You want to look at me in the eye sockets.

The Orbits of my eye holes.

I know where you go.

Yeah, I can't.

I will tell you the time.

I can't finish this line.

Court records, according to CBS News, show that many federal workers were fired and rehired 18 agencies.

This took place at.

More than 24,000 workers at 18 federal agencies who were fired as part of President Trump's efforts to shrink the size of the government are now in the process of being rehired following the federal judge's orders last week.

And I only want to put this on the show because for context, I thought it was a lot more.

I thought it was.

Keep in mind, the Inflation reduction act hired 87,000 IRS workers.

I remember that.

He only let go 24,000 workers across 18 agencies.

And I'm not downplaying the impact of people.

Look, if you got impacted, I'm sorry.

That sucks.

Having that kind of fear at your job.

Not fun.

I'm not downplaying the way people feel.

Yeah.

I just thought it was more.

Yeah.

Am I.

Am I alone here?

No.

No.

They made it seem.

I mean, Doge made it seem like it was a lot more.

It did, right?

Yeah.

And, like, this is why Doge numbers, like you pointed out in that one show, they were all inaccurate.

And there's like, all these.

Oh, there's all kinds of.

I mean, discrepancies that you're like, how is this possible?

Yeah, like y'all do.

Y'all can do math efficiently, right?

Exactly.

I mean, this is basic calculator stuff.

Come on, guys.

Yeah, you.

I mean, you added too many zeros.

The worst part is everybody knows and like, ah, they'll fix it later.

This is the report, the headline numbers, right?

Like, this is.

This is very shifty.

Exactly.

All right, so I saw a quote the other day which I thought was very telling of the current status of the financial world.

This is from Keds Economist.

I actually Vince, who works with us now, he pointed her out and I actually really liked this quote.

So, you know, shout out to Vince.

Shout out, Vince.

Yeah.

So quote from her social media, and I'm going to put her link in the show.

Notes here.

The top point one percent went from earning 8.1% of all taxable income to 14.3%.

Oh, my God.

Oh, my God.

Yeah.

By Comparison, the bottom 50% of Americans went from earning 14.4% of all taxable income to just 10.4%.

Went down quite dramatically.

The richest 154,000 households earns more than the bottom 77 million.

Oh, my God.

I'm Gonna say that again for impact.

Yeah.

Yeah.

Okay.

You're driving.

Don't swerve.

The richest 154,000 households earns more than the bottom 77 million households.

That's almost a third.

Yeah.

So Daddy had a fact check.

You had to fact check?

Yeah, I had a fact check.

Huh.

So there's really three claims that are broken out from this that I fact checked.

Okay.

Okay.

Number one, the top 0.1% went from earning 8.1% of all taxable income to 14.3%.

This claim aligns with data from the Economic Policy Institute EPI, which reports that the top 0.1% saw their share of total wages increase from 3.4% in 1979 to 5.4% in 2021.

While these figures pertain to wages rather than all taxable income, they indicate a significant upward trend in income concentrating income concentration among the top 0.1%.

So this appears to factually check out.

So people in those C suites, not.

All the people in C suites.

You know what I mean?

Number two, claim, by comparison, the bottom 50% went from earning 14.4% of all taxable income to just 10.4%.

So how do you make sense of that?

Well, let's read.

Let's read.

My.

My fact checking.

My fact check.

Specific data on the bottom 50% share of all taxable income is limited.

Okay.

However, the EPI notes at the bottom 90% received 58.6% of all wages in 2021.

The bottom 90% of Americans received only 58.6% of all wages earned in 2021.

Okay.

Down from 69.8% in 1979.

This decline suggests that the bottom half share likely decreased as well, supporting the statement's implications of reduced income share for lower earners.

So that also checks out.

And by the way, I want to make sure we get this out of there.

And I know some people have been asking for our take on what we think is actually going to happen.

This is arguably worse than Biden trying to waives a lot of student loans.

This idea of Trump being able to get away with not taxing on $150,000 worth of income.

Right.

Removing income tax.

Throw that away.

That's never going to happen.

You're never going to get Congress to sign off on this.

That would completely demolish Social Security and everything else tied to it.

The.

The hope of that.

Just throw.

Just throw it away.

You've heard.

You've heard about this?

I have.

I wrote it off instantly.

Yeah, Yeah.

I mean, come On.

Nice to say.

Good for you.

Happy thoughts.

Happy, happy toy joy.

Right.

Gumdrops, rainbows, lollipops falling from the sky.

The same way you can never expect your Netflix subscription subscription to come down.

Never gonna happen.

Yeah.

Yeah.

It's only gonna go up.

It's just gonna.

It'll be a thousand dollars a month in five years.

Yeah, but you're gonna pay for it.

Because you gotta know what happens on stranger things, season 12.

Got to.

Got to know.

But not Loki.

She's.

She's a.

She's an adult now.

Right?

Like she is.

Yeah.

You talk about Millie Bobby Brown.

Millie Bobby Brown.

Yeah, I stopped watching after season three.

Wait, what?

Yeah, because it's like the kid.

They got too old.

I don't know what you do besides have tea with your wife at night, but you got to expand your horizons.

Okay, yeah.

This is getting to a point where you becoming very AARP qualified.

What do you mean?

Like, I have a feeling you're going home with your boat.

I blame going to sleep early.

I blame not having.

Not having cable.

Honest.

Did you work out tonight?

No, not.

I.

I can't work out before the show.

I worked out before the show.

No, you did not.

That's when this gym interaction happened.

Oh, let's get to it.

You want to do this now?

Do it right now.

Validate the third quote here.

Okay.

Richest 254,000 households earn more than the bottom 77 million.

Well, that's also accurate.

This assertion is corroborated by data with the Federal Reserve, which indicates the top 0.1% of households.

Approximately 130,757 households, hold almost twice as much wealth as the bottom 50.

About 65 million households.

While this comparison focuses on wealth rather than income, it underscores the vast economic disparities between the nation's richest and poorest households.

So this entire quote checked out factually.

Shout out to Catherine Ann Edwards, who's originally the quote maker here, from some.

Won't someone please think of the top 1%.

Okay.

Shout out to Catherine vis a vis, the Keds economist.

Yeah.

Okay, so I'm at the gym this tonight, right.

And I left the office late for me around 6:30ish.

Yeah.

And I know because when I left that 6, your car was still there.

And I was like, oh, man.

Wait, what?

Yeah, it's not stalkerish at all.

The first park, second park.

Yeah.

And you know, I'm wearing shorts and one of these higher standard shirts because it's the only merch you need to buy.

Go to thspod.com buy your merch.

But the Christmas edition, it is the.

Christmas limited Christmas edition, which is no longer on the website.

Although I should have.

I should have done.

I didn't have time.

If I had time, I would have done, you know, St.

Patrick's Day.

Oh, yeah.

St.

Patty's Day.

Yep.

Anyway, so I'm in the gym, I walk in, I'm going straight to the leg machine.

I've got limited time.

I'm doing 20 minutes of cardio, which is how I start out.

And then I go straight into to lifting.

Now, I don't typically wear fitting clothes in the gym anymore.

I wear loose, baggy stuff.

Like, this is not about my aesthetics.

This is about longevity and health.

And, you know, I am.

I'm in pretty good shape.

I respect that.

Yeah.

I mean, I'm not.

I don't need to see it in the mirror.

I just need to feel good about my body.

And.

And I honestly, I think stress more than anything else caused me to lose weight recently.

And I'm still microdosing.

True's appetite.

Shout out to, you know, to Fridays.

Yeah.

Oh, hey, let's go.

You know, I'm not sponsored anymore, but I'll sponsor the homies.

Yeah, exactly.

By the way, they're crushing it.

They got billboards up in LA now.

I know, I saw them.

They're pretty dope.

Billboards.

Sports.

Yeah, yeah, pretty.

Yeah.

That being said.

So walk in.

This dude who's literally my height, younger guy, like 6 5ish, goes, hey, man, how tall are you?

And I go.

And I was thrown off because I gotta hurry because I gotta be here to meet you, you know, my putative spouse.

So this kid was in good shape, tan, looked like a basketball player.

Like, you know, he's fit but lean.

He had some muscle on him.

Okay.

And I go, excuse me.

He goes, yeah.

You know, how tall you.

Oh, I'm six'five How young?

How young is this person?

We'll get there.

Okay.

He goes, oh, me too.

Oh, cool, cool.

What's up, man?

He's like, I just want to know, like, you know, what someone your age.

Yes.

What someone your age does to stay so fit.

And I looked at him and I'm like.

I look at her.

I look around a little bit.

Like, I'm like.

I feel like I'm on, like, one of those Instagram, like, you know, and I'm like, you serious?

He goes, yeah, I got, you know, I just.

I want to be in your shape when I get older.

And on one hand, I'm like, okay, what?

That's respectable.

He's like, what do you do?

Like, cardio wise?

And I'm like, well, I don't really do cardio.

I'm like, yeah, that's not true.

I do 20 minutes in the morning, and then I cold plunge afterward.

And I said, but it's not like super intense cardio.

I'm just trying to wake up, get circulation, and then I'll do 20 minutes to get warm before I work out.

Low intensity, steady state.

Low intensity, steady state.

Like, I'm not pushing super hard.

And I said, I use my workout.

I'll do a circuit training all the time.

I'm gonna get my sweat and most of my movement there.

And I'm like, but I don't lift heavy weights anymore.

And he's like, what do you mean?

I said, like, I'll.

I'll bench, like, 225, 235, but I'm not going above that.

I'll.

I'll squat, like, in the three hundreds.

Like, low three hundreds.

But I'm not, like, I'm not trying to throw big numbers around.

Like, even then, he's like, what about, you know, keeping your testosterone levels high and this and that?

And I didn't want to tell him, you know, that I'm.

Oh, you're on the gear.

Yeah, I'm on the gear.

I'm on the Juicy Juice.

Yeah, the juice is loose, baby.

But.

Because then I don't know the kid, and I'm like, look, man, as you get older, your metabolism slows.

So if you stop playing ball and you think you can eat as much as you did before, especially when you get in your 40s, I say 30s is.

Everybody's different genetically.

But, you know, Certainly in your 40s, your metabolism is going to slow.

You got to eat less, even if you're doing the same amount of activity and if you're certainly not playing as much as you were when you're playing ball and working out, you play ball.

He's like, yeah.

And he's like, I just.

I just want to be in your shape.

How old are you?

He's like, oh, I'm 26.

I look at him like, how do you think I am?

He's, I don't know, 50.

And on one hand, I was, like, complimented, but then I realized a couple minutes later, I'm that dude.

Now, hold on.

He's.

First of all, it's not that you look is you.

The gray beard throws everybody off, bro.

I mean, he.

First of all, I'm not far from 50.

I mean, I wasn't gonna go there, but I'm.

He's only five.

In a couple months.

Yeah, in a couple months.

So he's five years.

Give him a.

Give him a margin for error, bro.

I mean, just say five years ain't that bad.

It's not like.

It's not like he said, I was.

20 when he was born.

Yeah, man.

Like, I was drinking alcohol and like, living life when he was born.

When he was one.

I'm in the club, you know what I mean?

Legally in the club.

Right, right.

Like, you graduated from deviate.

I graduated law school in 2003.

2004.

It doesn't say 2004.

Right?

He was two.

Yeah.

Like, I mean, it's just.

Right.

It's weird, man.

So he said, but dang, he said 50 with confidence, bro.

Sugar coat out.

Give me.

Give me 40.

Just make it feel good.

He thought he was sugar coating it.

That's the problem.

Oh, that's even worse.

Yeah, man.

And I'm.

And I was like, I'm so.

So I looked at him like, why'd you ask me?

He's like, you're about my height, my build.

I'd like to look like you when I get to be your age.

And I'm like, God damn it.

Did you tell him how old you were?

Huh?

Did you tell him how old you were?

No.

I mean, he was kind of right.

I mean, why?

Validated, right?

So I was like, all right, cool, man.

Good talking to you.

It just makes you look better.

Yeah.

I didn't want to dap him up, so I shook his hand like a 50 year old would do, you know?

Yeah.

I was just like, this is weird.

So I almost called Adam and started cussing at him.

I'm like, this is your fault.

Yeah, I don't know why.

Just not my fault.

Somebody else's fault.

Yeah, but.

And I looked around the gym because, you know, I don't really typically work out this late.

I usually, you know, I'm home by that time because my son.

Son gets dinner with him like, you know, no later than seven.

Then he'll put in the bed and bath and the whole thing.

And bro, I left on the gym, everybody.

I am the old guy.

You're the old guy now.

I am.

I'm the old guy, right.

Yeah.

It was earth shattering.

Now, do you ever think you would.

You would.

I know, because I know you got a home gym.

Yeah.

Do you ever see yourself going to that full time or.

You're always going to Be the guy that goes to the gym, man.

That's a good question.

I do like working out in the home gym in the mornings.

It feels a little more.

Right, if that makes sense.

Yeah.

But I.

I see the blood flowing and getting the cold plunge.

The cold plunge actually feels less cold when you got better circulation going on.

A little cheat code for those out there.

Yeah.

And then you don't have to wait on other people's machines.

Right.

But I know you do most of your stuff inside the squat rack.

Yeah, I do a lot of.

I have a squat rack at the house, too, though, but.

And I got, you know.

Yeah, I've got all that stuff.

But, you know, it's just one of those things where I.

I like the gym environment because I want to go get it done.

I'm only there for like an hour, 20 minutes, cardio, 40 minutes, lifting them out.

Yeah.

But, yeah, you know, I don't know.

My wife hasn't been going as much as she.

She used to go every day.

Now she doesn't really go that much anymore.

She's kind of.

Kind of over it.

And she's still got a great figure, man.

Like, her DNA is just.

Well, I mean, you get to benefit off of, like, doing it for so long.

Right?

Yeah.

As you can tell, she is.

I don't have, like, an athlete's physique like she does.

Like, if I stop working out, like, I look like, hey, hey, look, I get chunks.

You're saying.

You're saying you're losing weight.

Yeah, I think stress is getting to me, man.

The stress.

I don't talk about this a lot, and I probably shouldn't open up here for it, but I'm gonna do it anyway.

I burn the candle at all ends.

It's just.

It's what I do.

And I've kind of worked at such a high cadence for such a long period of time, and Roger Lipson told me this.

We talked about this before on the show, that we don't all have the same capacity for work.

Yeah, right.

Like, so it's easy to label someone lazy, but that you.

You really can't do that because everybody's got capacity for work is different.

And something that might exhaust somebody else might not exhaust you at all.

And I use a gym reference all the time for this.

Like, when you go to the gym and you work out and you build up a cadence.

So work out for somebody who's been working out consistently is going to be a lot less fatiguing than somebody who went in for their first Day.

Absolutely.

Right.

And, and everybody's different.

Like I don't play video games and it's hard.

And it's also kind of hard to quantify the mental fatigue people go through from whatever mental stresses they got going on outside of whatever they're working or family life or see.

But I've learned, and this is, I'm not saying this is healthy.

It's probably toxic.

I've learned to take my mental fatigue and work on something else, to not think about it.

So I'm still productive.

Yeah.

But then do you, do you ever think to yourself, I, I, maybe I should, I should think about it and I should be talking about this because some of this could boil over at some point.

No, but I mean, yesterday I woke up, I felt mentally unclear.

Like I, I did not feel sharp.

Got in the cold plunge.

Got in the cold plunge.

Something just felt off.

I started to close my eyes.

I was dizzy.

I wasn't really feeling sick.

I'm a little like, you know, nasal congested today.

But I think it was just exhaustion.

I went to bed at 11am I canceled all my meetings, which is, I never do this, cancel my meetings.

Went to bed at 11am I got up for dinner and then went back to bed and slept the next day till 7:00am And I don't, I barely, I usually sleep three, four hours a night.

Most nights, like I don't sleep a whole lot and, and the fatigue does catch up on me.

But I mean, you think of all the things that I'm doing, like I work, you know, pretty high, high performance job.

I have the podcast that I'm constantly working on, post production, everything else, you know, after hours.

I'm working on building the studio and try to be a good dad and a father.

And I don't hang out socially.

Anybody.

Yeah.

And I feel bad because a lot of great people that I would like, even like you like, I would like to hang out, social, a lot of people.

Right.

Just to get away for even an evening.

I don't do that.

Yeah.

If I'm not with my wife and my son, I am working.

That is it.

Yeah.

With the exception of the one hour a day I allot myself to go to the gym.

And I don't.

I've been probably doing that three days a week these days.

Like I am working.

And I, I don't know if that's healthy or not, but my capacity for work, I've always had like this incredible output.

Yeah.

Where I will put out a tremendous amount of work.

And that doesn't Mean that somebody else who doesn't do that is lazy.

But it doesn't, it also doesn't mean that I'm superior.

But people get this connotation where you feel like you're superior because you're doing more than somebody else.

And that isn't the message.

The message is, is like, I'm just doing all these things, and I feel obligated to do it.

If anything, it's.

I've got a psychological problem.

Yeah, you gotta listen to your body more.

And it just, every once in a while, it takes a toll.

And, and, you know, I feel bad.

Like, I feel like I'm a terrible friend.

No, I mean, you're not a terrible friend.

But what, what you need to, I think, do a little bit better job at.

This is just friend to friend.

As if nobody's listening.

Yeah.

All five listeners.

Yeah.

Is just maybe.

And you, you have been doing this more.

Is stepping back, smelling the roses, enjoying Carter a little bit, enjoying Joanna more.

You know, doing things like that.

Bro, I, I definitely am afraid of his sensing the stress that I have.

This has probably been the most stressful two years in my professional life.

But, I mean, kids are gonna feel that.

I mean, I, I, I, I try hard.

We're not the only ones.

But hold on to not have him feel that ever.

Yeah.

You don't want him to feel it ever.

But it might be healthy.

And granted, he's young.

He's five.

Right.

Adversity builds character.

He's five.

No, not that he, not that it builds character, but almost to see you go through and how you were actively dealing with it.

Well, so my plan is, is as he's older and more able to conceptualize some of these things.

Like, I would love to share more about what I do and explain to him why he doesn't see these things.

I'm telling you, man, like, some of that stuff might resonate because it does.

When I talk to Adam about some of the stuff, because he's a little bit older, some of it resonates.

But him, he'll.

He'll call out and he'll see, like, things that are going on, and that sticks with him more.

Seeing it in real time.

Yeah.

And I mean, you know what I mean?

Like, because they, they care about us so much that, I mean, I'm.

I'm his favorite person in the world, you know?

Bro, I was stunned the other day.

Joanna's birthday was last week.

And my wife.

Right.

And I adore my wife.

She doesn't like being the center of attention.

We had a real mellow day.

Went out with some people for lunch, got some massages, came home.

Carter was the babysitter.

Babysitter took him to Disneyland.

We thought we were being good parents, right?

Yeah.

And we're on the couch at the end of the night, we had a massage, and the babysitters left.

And we're talking, and he goes, mommy, it's your birthday.

We didn't celebrate your birthday.

I went to Disneyland.

Yeah.

And my wife was like, yeah, we thought you'd have a good time.

We went and got massages and had.

And had.

And had lunch.

Starts crying, like, hard.

Yeah, I want to celebrate your birthday.

It was, like, earth shattering.

Like, we didn't think how much, like, it meant to him.

Yeah, exactly.

And, dude, like, I'm telling you right now, for my birthday this year, it's gonna be all around him.

It's gotta.

Yeah, exactly.

I know.

And my wife and I, like, we actually had the same epiphany, too.

And you don't know because you think you're doing what's best for your kid, you know?

But we had that same epiphany where it was like, we now realize I want them to feel like me having a good time is synonymous with spending time with them, not, I'm gonna go have a good time for my birthday.

Yeah.

And, like, you got to go do your own thing, because I can't, you.

Know, which is part of the reason why, like, I don't do anything social.

Like, I don't hang.

I don't go to car shows.

I don't play basketball.

Friends.

Even though you like that stuff.

I like all that stuff.

Yeah.

But I've always prioritized.

Like, I want to put in the time to work.

And that's just.

I will listen to, like, natural, like, nature sounds and do drywall in the new studio space and be totally fine when I get home.

I'll be exhausted.

I mean, you do like that stuff, too, though.

You like being creative.

Like, that's like you're part of your creative output.

Right?

I mean, it ceases to be creative when you're doing LEDs for the third time in the course of, like, three weeks.

Because you can't.

You don't understand the electrical currents or something.

I mean, it's just stupid, but.

Right.

But then you got to also think, I mean, how do you want someday cars gonna grow up?

He's gonna have his own set of.

Friends right now, I hope he's a better friend than me.

Okay, so if I mean, teach their Own.

Right.

You're saying you're not.

I still think you are a good friend.

Different.

Kind of different kind of definition different.

You know what I mean?

But what kind of relationship do you want him to have with his friends?

Because, to be honest, like, whatever makes him happy.

Yeah, but he's gonna only know what you show him and what Joanna shows him, that this is what a good friend is.

But my wife is.

Yeah.

Social butterfly.

She makes friends.

You got it.

There's got to be a healthy balance.

I feel like I go out of my way.

I will go out of my way to be like, hey, I'm gonna go hang out with so and so today to let them know and be like, oh, what?

You can't you read it?

But stay home and read a book with me and be like, no, no, I've done that every other night, but tonight I have to do something for me.

Yeah.

He knows we do the podcast.

Yeah, exactly.

My kids do, too.

Yeah.

Arya still whines a little bit.

Adam's like, arya, stop.

He's doing it for the.

He's going with Uncle Chris.

Yeah.

There you go.

Yeah.

So I gotta spend some time because I'm a big nerd.

Underneath the Great Pyramid of Giza, there are eight tubes.

And above those eight tubes in the pyramid above ground, there are five, like, little buildings, if you will.

And people used to think those are relief points for pressure.

Okay.

But it doesn't really make sense because there's plenty of other places that would need relief points in the building that don't have these little towers in them.

There's five towers.

These five towers have these eight tubes underneath them, which go all the way down about a mile and a quarter or so underground to two chambers.

Four tubes in each chamber and a mile underground.

These are red granite chambers.

A mile, mile, and a mile.

1.25 miles is roughly the numbers.

Like, you know, doing metric to.

To standard conversion.

But, yeah, and it's what somebody went down there.

They use.

You know how they have lidar to scan, like, jungles now?

Yeah, yeah.

They have a similar technology to scan underground.

Okay.

And they actually scanned this couple years ago, like, two, three years ago.

And they've been studying it and putting this together.

So this is well researched.

This paper is real.

And there's more coming.

They just released this as, like, an aperitif, a little pallet cleanser before they drop you with the Chitty shitty Bang Bang.

But, bro, this is so meaningful.

Okay?

And to give everybody, like, a perspective, there is a theory that's been out there.

I can't remember the guy's last name, but it's.

Christopher is a guy's name.

We went on Joe Rogan.

He talked about how he thought the Great Pyramid of Giza was actually a power plant.

Well, it turns out underground, all the pyramids were connected, and we didn't know this.

Oh, and for history, we just found out using.

I mean, it makes sense.

It makes sense.

We just found out using LiDAR technology that there was a big river.

The Nile river was actually much closer to the pyramids.

It shifted over time.

Farther away.

Yeah, exactly.

This used to be a lush green paradise.

Right, which, which, which would make sense that there's more agriculture around.

Right, right.

But the Great Pyramid of Giza, which is thought to hold, you know, to be like a pyramid that held, like, the bones of a deceased pharaoh, for example.

Okay, well, there aren't really hieroglyphics in the Great Pyramid.

It's in some of the smaller pyramids, but not the Great Pyramids.

It.

That's.

There's been a lot of speculation.

So if you take the frequencies of certain gases, and it turns out the tubes that they thought were air relief tubes actually match the width of those frequencies.

Precisely, Precisely.

Precisely.

They're like, oh, well, those are just air relief tubes.

So air can get in and circulate.

Well, not all those tubes go out to the exterior of the building.

It has long been believed that there's been some interesting things.

So, for example, the exterior of.

Of the.

The Great Pyramid of Giza used to be really, really, really shiny.

Came from granite.

That's about the distance of Florida away.

Okay.

In one direction.

Right, right.

They dragged those there.

Well, it turns out that exterior had.

In that, that granite that's using the outside had a lower magnesium content than any other local granite.

And it also helps with conductivity and temperature regulation.

The quartz they used inside the Great Pyramid was from the other direction almost equally as far as the granite was.

And that quartz, Quartz is unique because it actually, if you put it under pressure, heavy weighted pressure, that's electromagnetic charge.

The only thing you really need to make this whole thing pop off and create energy is water.

But how would you get the water in there?

How does it work?

Well, think about this.

If you got a big shiny pyramid, like mirror, like shine, right?

And you get sun that hits it, okay.

And you've got all these frequencies and tunnels that are dragging into the center of this thing, and underneath it just happens to be a giant, vast collection of water tunneling up to these Two channels.

Yep.

Now you've got a chemical reaction.

This thing was possibly a giant power plant.

Right.

That's never been more real than now.

And for those of you saying, oh my God, the Egyptians weren't that superior, man, you're right, they weren't.

Graham Stephan.

No, Graham.

Graham Hancock.

Hancock.

Thank you.

Graham Hancock's been a Joe Rogan.

He's always talked about there being a lost civilization.

Yeah.

I'm not saying the aliens created this thing, but his argument has always been that there is data to suggest that the pyramids are much older than we understood them to be.

Oh yeah, yeah, yeah.

That the Egyptians possibly worshiped them for the capabilities they saw them do, but they didn't build them.

They inherited that from a predecessor generation, a lost civilization that possibly died off at that time.

Wow.

Fun fact.

Every single pyramid like structure across the world was typically built over water.

Yeah.

There's always either natural spring or water underneath it.

And the great pyramids were always an exception.

Well, it turns out from what we found now that they weren't the exception.

They were actually probably the biggest rule there.

And these things we found underneath them all these generations later.

Yeah, Extremely telling.

So how far over did the Nile river shift?

Miles.

Miles and miles and miles.

Wow.

So new LIDAR scans of the the area show there was actually a riverbed right next to the pyramids.

Yeah.

So a lot, we found out a lot about ancient history in recent months and years that we did not know.

And this, this is earth shatteringly different.

I mean this, if I were Graham Hancock right now I'd be doing a victory lap.

I'd be on Joe Rogan tomorrow if I was that Christopher guy who wrote the book about this being a power plant.

Yeah.

I mean Graham Hancock probably knew about this, right?

No, this, this was.

He didn't know what.

This just came out, just came public like literally March 15th.

So I mean like five days ago.

I mean, I just want to know how, how they moved all those huge stones.

Well, and so the argument was, is like, oh, you know, you don't understand.

This was hundreds of years in the work and they used a slave labor force and they dragged it.

That's literally.

That would take forever.

Okay.

And I mean it sounds kind of feasible in theory because this is what he taught us.

But how would you lift it?

First of all, how are you gonna build a mile and a quarter into the underground in what was presumably a water based lake bed?

Drop these granite stones and these tubes are massive.

There's actually circular walkways on these Tubes down to the granite stones.

There was like some kind of pathway around like, like circles like that.

Right.

Like, think about the H Vac in the studio where there's kind of this, you know, cyclical pattern around it.

You could walk down there in these tubes.

Yeah.

Oh, wow.

1.2 miles underground.

How many years the slave's gonna dig in the.

I mean, what do you.

No, no.

Hell no.

No, no, no, no, no.

There is something there that we fundamentally did not understand and anticipate.

Yeah.

In a way.

And if you look inside the Great Pyramid of Giza, the biggest pyramid there, it does not look like a pharaoh's tomb at all.

There's no hieroglyphics, there's nothing special.

There's all sorts of tombs and spaces that we haven't gotten into.

And then, of course, in order to make this entire electrical current thing pop off, you need copper.

You need some kind of conduit.

Turns out there are multiple places in that great pyramid that had, like two copper pieces sticking into the room that hung down.

They're like, oh, those are used to tie a rope to.

To drag stuff and supplies in and out.

Probably not.

Probably.

Yeah.

Probably a conduit for electricity.

Wow.

And there's a guy recently who was related to the Egyptian Museum of Antiquities who was stealing stuff from the great pyramids and other pyramids.

And amongst the things that he stole were tons of copper wire.

Oh, wow.

So copper wire, granite, sun, heat, water, bro.

This thing was very much likely to be a power plant.

A power plant in a way that we still cannot generate to this day.

And how are these stones in this marble and the quartz cut with such precision?

And the level of precision on some of these things people don't understand.

You're talking like if you haven't watched Graham Hancock's special on this on Netflix, you owe it to yourself.

Yeah.

There's two of them, right?

About lost civilizations.

But season one's all you need to see.

But season two is even more spectacular.

But it.

The level of, first of all, no modern day tools, Right.

The level of technical specifics that were used to create.

I mean, you're talking massive ton stones, precisionly built and layered on top of each other, where you can't even slide a piece of paper in between them.

I mean, that's insane.

It's insane.

The level of precision that went into building, we can't replicate today.

A great example of this we have.

They have bases in Egypt, right, that we still to this day could not make if we wanted to.

Yeah, yeah.

Yeah, yeah.

Because the way they are made, they're made out of one single piece of stone.

And the neck is so narrow and the body is so big.

We could not make this out of stone today.

And the ability, this and the ability for Americans to just not care about.

Any of this by just Americans, there's a whole, like, historic archaeology mafia.

How is, how is.

No, that doesn't want this message out there.

They.

They literally the Gestapo of archaeology comes out, and they, they do not want anybody to know this because it's thwarts the idea.

Yeah.

Think about this.

We as humans, no matter.

It doesn't matter what ethnicity you are.

Okay.

Where you're from in the world, we as humans believe that we are the superior culture.

Right.

We survived.

We have nuclear weapons.

We are amazing.

Yeah.

We have to be the one.

This is the way.

Yeah.

What do they, what do they feel like it's going to do something to the church?

I mean, certainly that could be part of it.

I mean, there could be religious implications, for sure.

I mean, if you look back, there's actually some interesting things.

And there's certainly.

It was like 1919.

I can't remember the name of the, the chapter in the Bible.

There's, there's, there's.

There's biblical chapters which describe the pyramids of Giza and describe them in detail, but they.

We didn't know that because they described the way they used to look, not the way they look now.

Like all that shininess on the outside.

Yeah.

So, I mean, there, there's some pretty interesting things out there from an archaeological perspective where if you don't follow these things, like, it's all good.

Like, I get it doesn't interest you, but it is changing at such a rapid cadence now because of the technology that we had to look at these things.

Like in Turkey, there's.

There are some really interesting things that they found underground that archaeologists refuse to excavate.

And their explanation for this is, oh, we don't have the technology to excavate this today, so we're going to wait till.

Better technology, bruh.

You're digging out rocks.

What you talking about?

Well, we want to preserve it.

Yeah.

Future generations.

Yeah, exactly.

Or is there something down there you don't want us to see?

Because it'll disprove a lot of history.

That's the problem.

Which is interesting to see how this archaeological study was done a couple years ago and took them years to validate and get the paper out.

And they couldn't just go, here's what we found.

They had to dribble out bits and pieces.

And there's more coming.

Yeah.

So expect everything you know about Egypt and the great pyramids to change dramatically in the next couple of years.

And the nerd in me could not be happier.

Yeah.

Yeah.

It's exciting.

Can't wait.

I'm gonna.

I'll look into this.

And I think I've only seen one of the.

The Hancock documentaries.

Yeah.

Lost Civilization.

Lost Civilizations.

Yeah, it is.

It is good stuff.

Yeah.

All right, man.

Good episode.

You think?

Yeah.

Leave us an honest 5 star review or a comment down below.

Let us know what you think.

I need some reviews, man.

I don't ask you guys that much.

He asks you all the time.

I need a review.

There you go.

Keeps me going.

Yeah.

We've been sitting at 269.

Let's crack the 270.

Yeah.

I want the three hundo.

Let's get to 300.

Big podcasts.

Have that.

Yeah, big podcast.

Grab your mama's phone.

Like our.

Like our podcast.

Subscribe.

We need more subscribers, too.

Yeah.

All right.

All right.

Got anything else?

Nope.

Good night, everybody.

Okay, bye.