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Jacob Smulian: Hello
Geopolitical cousin Land.

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It is producer Jacob,
Marco and Jacob Shapiro.

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Only have time for a short pod
today, and so they squeeze in

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some hot takes on the Middle East.

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They talk about Burkina
Faso's social media presence.

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And then take a deep dive into Marco's
new concept of geopolitical tightening.

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And then try to figure out if
multipolarity is a good thing or

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a bad thing for global stability.

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That's it.

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Let's get into it.

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Jacob Shapiro: All right, listeners, uh,
Marco and I usually have the luxury of

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relaxing for a two hour conversation,
but we've got, we've got a tight

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57 minutes 'cause I've gotta run.

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So we are gonna absolutely
blow your minds.

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There's no time for foreplay,
there's no time for jokes, there's

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no time for basketball, even though
the Knicks are up two oh oh my God.

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We, we've gotta get straight into it.

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I will integrate Jason Tatum
metaphors throughout this though.

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'cause you might remember Marco
last year on a podcast with you.

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I said there was no
chance that Jason Tatum.

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Was good enough to lead a
team to the NBA championship.

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I think in retrospect,
that was the correct call.

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It was just everybody else was so shitty.

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Anyway, we're not supposed to do that.

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So anyway, why don't we start here.

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Um, there's been a lot of weird stuff in
the Middle East the past couple of days.

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Um, I. Kind of started with actually
something you sent me with RFK Junior

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and Nancy Pelosi, both raging at
King Abdullah the second of Jordan.

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Also, star Trek's most famous
Extra, made an appearance in

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the Star Trek Voyager for you.

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Star Trek nerds out there.

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And apparently the, the issue is
that King Abdullah said that he would

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accept 2000 till children from Gaza
who had cancer and other illnesses.

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Um, he's only taken in 44 now.

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He's slow playing it.

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And Jordan says that the king is slow
playing it because he is not sure

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they're gonna be able to return to Gaza.

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I don't know who would
wanna return to Gaza.

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There's nothing left of it,
but we can get into that later.

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And Kennedy and Pelosi are taking this
as a personal affront and a betrayal.

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We can get into that, um, later.

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Then earlier this week.

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The Houthis struck Israel with a missile.

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Um, this was not your
garden variety missile.

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It got past missile defense.

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It made a huge crater near the Tel
Aviv airport, shut down flights

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in and out of Israel for a while.

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So it got the Israeli's attention.

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Israel went back and hit them.

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In the meantime, uh, apparently
Donald Trump had a call.

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With the Houthis and agreed that the
United States would stop bombing them

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as long as the Houthis stopped bombing
shipping to which the Houthis, and I

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mean, we're, we're, we have to take this,
you know, at face value from the source.

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But according to Mr.

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Trump, the Houthis said, cool, we're
just gonna keep bombing Israel.

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And Trump was cool with that.

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Uh, there was no objection from
the United States that the Houthis

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were gonna keep on with Israel as
long as they stopped bombing ships.

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Um, I, some of the quotes here about
the Houthis are also incredible.

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Trump's saying that he had a good
outcome, they had a great capacity,

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withstand punishment, uh, quote.

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You could say there's
a lot of bravery there.

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It's amazing what they took.

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End quote, um, Israeli Prime Minister of
Benjamin Netanyahu has come out and said,

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fine, the Israelis will defend themselves
alone against the Houthis, if they must,

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if the United States is not on their side.

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Um, and then amidst all of this,
Israel also in the last week

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or two, has been talking about.

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Basically just annexing the Gaza Strip.

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There have also been rumors and various
reports that the United States has

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agreed to administer the region on
a temporary basis until the Israelis

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or some other group of countries
or whatever else can take it over.

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Like there's a lot that is unclear
here and in the background.

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Iran and the United States continue
to have negotiations, and Marco

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Papich has been running around the
Middle East briefing clients and

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learning things from the ground up.

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Marco, where should we start?

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Marko Papic: Uh, well, I mean, I, I
thought that was, uh, you know, I, I

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think one of the interesting things that
Trump does is that he actually gives

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props to, you know, America's rivals.

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And it's very old school.

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It's medieval.

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You know, um, and I think that he had,
this isn't the first time he's done it.

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He actually did that to Iran
after the, uh, killing of general

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Soleimani Iran retaliated.

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And President Trump said,
okay, I respect that.

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I consider this matter over actually Vice
President Harris is, you know, brought

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that up in the debates, if you remember.

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And she actually accused him of
being callous and glib about,

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uh, American servicemen being,
you know, put in harms ma away.

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Um.

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You know, I think it's appropriate
given that the world is multipolar

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and you can't, uh, enforce some sort
of a unipolar normative hegemony.

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So you've got to, you know,
recognize the reality.

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But what's interesting to me is just
how quickly apparently the deal was

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struck between the US and the Houthis,
and what's not clear to me, but I lean

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towards the view that President Trump.

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And the Houthis actually agreed
that they would not target American

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vessels and American shipping.

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It didn't seem to me like the
Houthis said that they would like

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stop targeting all shipping, but I.

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You know, I guess that's yet to be
confirmed or, you know, seen in reality.

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So, um, it does seem to me like
the US is, you know, effectively

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just pursuing its own interests.

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And I think that, uh, most countries in
the Middle East, uh, already knew that.

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In fact, one of the interesting
things that I did found out while

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I was in, uh, Saudi Arabia was that
for many Saudis, it was really after.

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Various drones attacked their
infrastructure, energy, infrastructure,

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um, that Saudi Arabia took seriously.

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Uh, this idea that Americans wouldn't be
there to actually prevent any conflict

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with Iran, and therefore they went ahead.

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And made their own detant, I don't
wanna call it a peace deal 'cause it's

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not Iran and Saudi Arabia are always
gonna be rivals and they're all always

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gonna look at each other as skew.

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But, uh, it was interesting that that
was, that was the narrative that, uh,

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was very prevalent in Saudi Arabia.

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It was like an obvious thing, like Yes.

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I mean, once we realized that Iran
can strike in inside Saudi Arabia,

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you know, relatively, uh, with little
costs from the American perspective, we

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decided to make our own deal with them.

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Jacob Shapiro: Huh?

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You, you were right.

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Uh, so President Trump himself,
he, here's the quote from him.

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They said, please don't bomb us anymore,
and we're not going to attack your ships.

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End quote.

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Um, but then most of the media is covering
it as the houthis agreeing to stop

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interrupting important shipping lanes.

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So I don't know how we got to that leap.

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Um, sort of in the media there,
I'm also fairly certain that, uh,

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the Houthis did not call President
Trump and say, please don't bomb us.

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But, but that's neither here.

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And nor there.

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Um, well, let me just, let me cook
on Israel for a second, uh, for

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all three of our Israeli listeners
and Yes, yes, I'm gonna do that.

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The thing I hate the most in the world,
a guy with the last name Shapiro, is

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gonna tell you about Israeli geopolitics.

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Um,

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Marko Papic: but, and I, and the
guy with the name Papi, is just

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going to sidestep that land bind.

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Elegantly.

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Yeah.

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And let you fall right on it.

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No,

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Jacob Shapiro: I jump on it.

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Oh, by the way though, I mean, you know,
in our last podcast, Marco, it was the

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Jew who read the Vatican correctly.

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You thought the next Pope
was coming from Asia.

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I said, no, I think he's coming
from somewhere more traditional.

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You nailed

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Marko Papic: it.

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Jacob Shapiro: The Jew.

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The Jew won.

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Nile is zero.

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But here I'm probably gonna
give up the victory right here.

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Oof.

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Yes.

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Marko Papic: Well, you know what?

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That's just gonna launch a, a
steady stream of new conspiracies

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that Jews also run the Vatican.

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Uh,

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Jacob Shapiro: what's,
that's a conspiracy.

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Conspiracy implies lack of truth.

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Um, so,

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oh, I'm gonna get in trouble.

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So when it comes to Israel,
though, I think Benjamin Netanyahu.

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Um, is an incredible domestic politician
and he has survived for as long as he

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has by creating this Iranian boogeyman.

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And I think long term in Israel's grand
strategy, it's the exact wrong thing to

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do because the long term threat to Israel
is not from Iran, from a Shiite Persian

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country that is many thousands of miles
or however much it is away from Israel.

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It's from.

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Local Sunni Arabs and from Turkey, and
those forces have been sort of gaining

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in power, gaining in wealth around
Israel, even as some of them, like the

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Saudis are batting their eyelashes at it.

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And Netanyahu continues
to hammer on the Houthis.

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The other thing that Netanyahu did
was he completely tripled down in

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his relationship with Donald Trump.

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Thought that Donald Trump was gonna
look out for Israeli interests, thought

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that, you know, he had the measure of
the man, and that was a miscalculation.

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Huge.

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He didn't have the measure of the man.

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I have been saying for years that
the United States would jettison

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Israeli interest just as soon it was
as it was in US interest to do so.

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And that would've been Biden, it would've
been Harris, it would've been Trump.

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It would've been anybody.

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There was nobody who was gonna
have that ironclad commitment.

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I. With Israel, and I don't care that
Jared Kushner's in the background, like

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it's just, it's just not gonna work.

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And Israel long term, if it's thinking
about its future, it really needs to start

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thinking about a world in which it doesn't
have, um, sort of unqualified US support.

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It needs to think about threats that
are much closer to home, whether that's

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Turkey, in its navy, in its backyard,
or going after their natural gas

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interests or, uh, you know, the breaking
up of trees with Egypt and Jordan

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or real insurgency in the West Bank.

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Because the Palestinians realize
they have nothing less left to lose.

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Like it's a very difficult position
that Israel has put itself in.

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And I, I think from just a grand
strategy point of view, it's short-term

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politics is affecting Israel's
long-term strategic interests.

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And this should be a big warning
sign to Israeli strategic decision

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makers, security officials, they
probably won't listen to it 'cause

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they're all obsessed with, you
know, the Iranian nuclear weapon.

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And I get it, I get why
you're obsessed with that.

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But there are much bigger fish to
fry closer to home, and I don't

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think anything's gonna change.

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And, and that's just the way that it's.

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And, and ramp.

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Marko Papic: No.

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I mean, I wish there was something
to disagree with you on, but I think

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you're a hundred percent I, I don't
know whether I said it on the podcast

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or whether I said it to my clients in
meetings, but I think that it's incredibly

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naive to triple down on Donald Trump.

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I. So he moved the embassy to Jerusalem.

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Whoop d Do you know, like,
okay, that means nothing.

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I, I would disagree with one thing.

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I think it would be very difficult
for Joe Biden or Vice President

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Harris, uh, to turn on Israel.

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I. I think that they would've
been accused immediately by

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the Republicans of being weak.

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Donald Trump can do it in a second.

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And by the way, Donald Trump can
pretty much do anything he wants,

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and there's very little criticism
he will receive, um, from I would

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argue a majority of Americans.

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And so this is, this is a big one.

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This is, this is where I
think, um, you know, president

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Trump has a mix, I think of.

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Pretty solid instinct on us.

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Interest at times.

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At times, particularly
tactically, maybe long term no.

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But tactically, yes.

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And second of all, you know, Donald
Trump's interests are what's good for

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Donald Trump and continued conflict
in the Middle East is not, I. He

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has branded himself very powerfully.

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This is important.

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Part of his brand is someone who can
get deals done and more importantly,

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create geopolitical, equilibrium,
equilibrium around the world.

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And I think Israel is making a,
a, you know, a very big mistake

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by continuing the Gaza operation.

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Uh, and I don't mean that from
a operational perspective or

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tactical perspective of like, let's
find hostages and destroy Hamas.

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You know, that's all fine and good,
and Israel could do whatever they want.

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I understand that, but it's more from
a perspective of like, is that aligned

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with President Trump's interests?

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And they should probably
fall in that line.

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I. If they want to continue
to receive his support.

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And I think this Houthis deal
is a great example of that.

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I mean, like the Houthis attacked Tel
Aviv airport either right after the deal

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was struck, or while President Trump
was, you know, phoning the Houthis.

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And uh, and there was no, and
there has been like no comment

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from the United States on that.

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And that should be a really, that should
send very cold sweat down the spine

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of anyone in Netanyahu's government.

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Jacob Shapiro: Yeah.

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What about, what about, uh, king
Abdullah and, and Jordan and RFK

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Jr? I'll, I'll let you cook on that.

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Marko Papic: Well, no, I mean,
that's, that's also aligned with

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your view, which is, I mean, again,
maybe where I would disagree with

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you is a little bit on Turkey.

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You know, I, I don't see why.

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You know, I think Turkey has interest in
designs on Iraq and Syria and Lebanon, but

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I also don't think that Turkey in any way,
shape, or form has ever, you know, um,

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considered or thought or even fantasized
or dreamed or had a nightmare about, uh,

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Israel not having the right to exist.

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So that's where I think
I disagree with you.

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I think Turkey and Israel can coexist.

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They can be rivals, they can be even
enemies, but it's not an existential risk.

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I I, I don't see why Turkey
would have that kind of a, you

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know, confrontation with Israel.

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Jacob Shapiro: May, maybe it's not an
existential risk, and maybe that's like

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the outlier scenario, but it is certainly
a geopolitical imperative for Turkey.

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Once it, it has to have control
of the Levant first and of,

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you know, uh, Iraq and all.

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And it has to subdue, uh, any
threat from Persia or whatever.

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But eventually, um, the Neo Ottomans.

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Have to have, what is today, Israel, like
Ottoman Palestine was taken, like, it

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wasn't a Palestinian state that the, the
Jews took, uh, Ottoman Palestine from it.

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It was the Ottoman Empire that they,
they inserted themselves and then the

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British Empire that held it afterwards.

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And if you are, if you have imperial
ambitions in the region, that the

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area that is Israel or Palestine or
whatever you wanna call it, based on

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your politics, has always been important
for those types of regional powers that

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are thinking about connecting Middle
East, Eurasia, all these other things.

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So.

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Marko Papic: I think it's tough.

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I think it's tough for them to repeat.

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You know, I, I don't think water
will flow down the same channels, you

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know, 200 years later, but it's okay.

287
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We can disagree on that.

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I mean, ultimately, uh, it doesn't to,
to me that's like step two, step three,

289
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and we can debate it at some other time.

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But to me, I would say the
biggest threat is, um, collapse

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of states that have treaties.

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You, you framed it like Egypt
and Jordan one day decide they

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don't want to tear up the.

294
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Treaties that they have with Israel.

295
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Um, and I would say that that
could happen because those states

296
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collapse due to Israeli actions.

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Now, that's less likely to happen with
Egypt because it's such a large country

298
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and an influx of Palestinian refugees into
Egypt I think is relatively manageable.

299
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And it's uh, you know, it's basically
run by the military and so on and so on.

300
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But what's happening in Jordan
is I think, very concerning.

301
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And this is, uh, this is where
the west can really be callous.

302
00:14:29,565 --> 00:14:32,265
Like if we had a TikTok camera, I
would ask for you to like, shine

303
00:14:32,265 --> 00:14:35,505
it on me, because here's a country
that's done nothing but like

304
00:14:35,595 --> 00:14:38,445
right by the west, by its allies.

305
00:14:38,925 --> 00:14:44,115
It's, uh, it's stable monarchy,
uh, you know, king Abdullah is

306
00:14:44,175 --> 00:14:45,945
doing the best job he can do.

307
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Um, it's a country where Palestinian,
uh, Palestinians either descendants

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00:14:51,525 --> 00:14:55,815
of refugees or refugees themselves,
uh, form a very large majority.

309
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It's a country where the PLO.

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At one time in its, uh, in its
sort of rambunctious youth when

311
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they had their hair down and
they were smoking cigarettes and.

312
00:15:06,480 --> 00:15:10,980
Running around hijacking planes,
tried to overtake King Abdullah's

313
00:15:10,980 --> 00:15:15,959
father King, uh, in, uh, 1971, where
the United States effectively had to

314
00:15:15,959 --> 00:15:19,980
bring in the pa, uh, the Pakistanis
to save the Hashemite kingdom.

315
00:15:20,579 --> 00:15:25,350
So this is a country with a
history of problems between the

316
00:15:25,350 --> 00:15:26,850
monarchy and the Palestinians.

317
00:15:27,120 --> 00:15:30,360
I think King Gah has really,
uh, worked on fixing that.

318
00:15:30,720 --> 00:15:35,670
He is married to a very eloquent,
very, uh, I think, uh, you know.

319
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Well-spoken Palestinian himself.

320
00:15:37,975 --> 00:15:41,635
Um, so he's tried to create this
kind of syncretic culture, but

321
00:15:41,635 --> 00:15:45,475
the, that makes it more difficult
for him to ignore what's going on.

322
00:15:45,475 --> 00:15:49,405
And over the past, you know,
18 months, I would say.

323
00:15:49,405 --> 00:15:52,285
Did the delta, the change in tone.

324
00:15:54,660 --> 00:15:59,939
From the monarchy of Jordan is probably
the most severe when it comes to

325
00:15:59,939 --> 00:16:02,160
Israel out of any country in the world.

326
00:16:02,670 --> 00:16:05,910
You know, people talk about Europeans
not sending weapons to Israel anymore.

327
00:16:05,910 --> 00:16:08,100
Like that's, that's
neither here nor there.

328
00:16:08,459 --> 00:16:11,969
The real change in attitude and
tone is from Jordan, and I think

329
00:16:11,969 --> 00:16:14,969
King Abdullah is basically telling
the world like, Hey guys, like.

330
00:16:15,420 --> 00:16:17,790
I can't hold back the dam any longer.

331
00:16:18,270 --> 00:16:22,650
And if, uh, you know, if Israel Annexes
Gaza, I think that's, you know, uh,

332
00:16:23,130 --> 00:16:26,040
perhaps neither here nor there, but
I think the biggest problem is what

333
00:16:26,040 --> 00:16:29,790
happens to the Po Palestinians, the
West Bank, and if they start coming

334
00:16:29,790 --> 00:16:33,449
across the border to Jordan, I
think that Israeli threat perception

335
00:16:33,449 --> 00:16:35,040
is going to diametrically change.

336
00:16:35,280 --> 00:16:40,620
Israel has not had to guard its
eastern borders, which are massive.

337
00:16:41,100 --> 00:16:43,590
It hasn't had to deal with them in over.

338
00:16:44,160 --> 00:16:47,790
You know, 30 years, it hasn't had
to really worry about them at all.

339
00:16:48,270 --> 00:16:52,020
And so I think that this is
an existential risk to Israel.

340
00:16:52,380 --> 00:16:59,550
I believe that the pers, the preservation
of the Hashemite monarchy dynasty in

341
00:16:59,550 --> 00:17:06,119
Aman is more important to, honestly,
Israeli continued existence then.

342
00:17:06,780 --> 00:17:09,420
I mean, anything in the world.

343
00:17:10,095 --> 00:17:14,415
And yet they're treating it so callously
because you're completely right.

344
00:17:14,415 --> 00:17:18,885
Benjamin Netanyahu is perhaps one of
the greatest domestic politicians in

345
00:17:18,885 --> 00:17:23,835
the world, but I think that he has
absolutely no interest in what happens

346
00:17:23,835 --> 00:17:28,004
to his own country 24 months after today.

347
00:17:30,075 --> 00:17:30,795
Jacob Shapiro: Can't argue there.

348
00:17:31,215 --> 00:17:32,715
All right, let, let's move on from that.

349
00:17:33,195 --> 00:17:33,360
I'm sorry, I'm,

350
00:17:34,095 --> 00:17:37,635
Marko Papic: I know we're short on time,
but I just wanna say Nancy Pelosi and RFK.

351
00:17:38,534 --> 00:17:40,754
What the hell do they even
know about this region?

352
00:17:40,814 --> 00:17:46,125
I mean, they're blaming king of this
is the hypocrisy that I, I just, I, I'm

353
00:17:46,125 --> 00:17:49,784
like 2000 children in Amman hospitals.

354
00:17:52,034 --> 00:17:56,625
The third richest country on
the planet has the gall I.

355
00:17:58,620 --> 00:18:03,899
To criticize Jordan for not
taking 2006 kids from Gaza.

356
00:18:04,770 --> 00:18:05,100
What?

357
00:18:05,100 --> 00:18:08,129
There's no space in American
hospitals like, are you kidding me?

358
00:18:08,129 --> 00:18:10,800
This is a country of
like 12 million people.

359
00:18:12,380 --> 00:18:17,295
You know, I mean, like it is shocking
that they would've publicly voiced this.

360
00:18:17,295 --> 00:18:20,595
And anyone who's watching this and
hates Trump and the Republicans or

361
00:18:20,595 --> 00:18:25,215
hates Democrats, uh, and you know,
Joe Biden, please for the love of God,

362
00:18:25,215 --> 00:18:27,135
realize they're kind of all morons.

363
00:18:27,495 --> 00:18:32,445
You know, the Nancy Pelosi and
RFK can be on the same page.

364
00:18:32,475 --> 00:18:34,515
And that page is quite frankly, like.

365
00:18:35,655 --> 00:18:39,765
I mean it, it's embarrassing for
the United States of America to be

366
00:18:39,765 --> 00:18:42,915
putting that kind of pressure on a
country that's trying to balance.

367
00:18:43,545 --> 00:18:47,070
I. Incredibly difficult
politics and geopolitics.

368
00:18:47,070 --> 00:18:48,840
So, you know, God bless Jordan.

369
00:18:48,840 --> 00:18:49,770
Obviously I'm biased.

370
00:18:49,770 --> 00:18:52,680
I spent four years of my life there
as a kid, and I think it's an awesome

371
00:18:52,680 --> 00:18:57,060
country and I think that, uh, they're
doing the best in a very, very

372
00:18:57,060 --> 00:19:01,350
difficult region to balance all sorts
of different, very difficult landmines.

373
00:19:01,440 --> 00:19:02,400
Um, so.

374
00:19:02,680 --> 00:19:06,190
I think it's embarrassing what, uh,
Nancy Pelosi and RFK said, they're

375
00:19:06,190 --> 00:19:09,670
basically accusing, you know, king
Abdullah of reneging on his promise

376
00:19:09,670 --> 00:19:12,550
to bring sick children into Ahman.

377
00:19:12,550 --> 00:19:14,560
But it's not that simple, you know?

378
00:19:14,560 --> 00:19:19,120
And if, and if, if they understood
that, they would just, you know, swallow

379
00:19:19,120 --> 00:19:20,590
the bullet and say, you know what?

380
00:19:20,590 --> 00:19:23,320
United States of America will take
them, because it's become a very

381
00:19:23,320 --> 00:19:25,180
difficult thing for King Abdullah too.

382
00:19:25,530 --> 00:19:26,820
To, to act on.

383
00:19:27,810 --> 00:19:28,050
Jacob Shapiro: Yeah.

384
00:19:28,050 --> 00:19:31,440
It's, it's tone deaf and I, I also
appreciate Jordan, just from an

385
00:19:31,440 --> 00:19:35,280
intellectual perspective, because on
paper, if you just look at all the things

386
00:19:35,280 --> 00:19:38,400
that like make up Jordan and all the
challenges they've had, that country

387
00:19:38,400 --> 00:19:39,990
should not exist geopolitically, I.

388
00:19:40,440 --> 00:19:41,280
Like it doesn't make sense.

389
00:19:41,280 --> 00:19:43,290
The fact that the hash mites
have held on as long as they

390
00:19:43,290 --> 00:19:44,880
have doesn't make any sense.

391
00:19:44,880 --> 00:19:48,480
It's actually a, a nice piece, a nice
slice of humble pie for geopolitical

392
00:19:48,480 --> 00:19:50,940
analysts, because everything
that I know about geopolitics

393
00:19:50,940 --> 00:19:53,220
tells me that Jordan should have
collapsed during the Arab Spring.

394
00:19:53,640 --> 00:19:56,280
And the fact that they're still, they're
still alive and kicking after taking

395
00:19:56,280 --> 00:20:00,090
all the Syrian refugees after everything
with the Palestinians, after Isis on

396
00:20:00,090 --> 00:20:02,310
his borders with the rock, Saudi, all
these things, sorry, lemme go further.

397
00:20:02,850 --> 00:20:04,920
Marko Papic: Can I interrupt
you and go further that country?

398
00:20:05,070 --> 00:20:05,461
Jacob Shapiro: Please, please, please.

399
00:20:05,461 --> 00:20:05,471
In

400
00:20:05,985 --> 00:20:10,575
Marko Papic: that country may
very well in some sort of parallel

401
00:20:10,575 --> 00:20:13,935
universe be a bastion of terrorism.

402
00:20:15,135 --> 00:20:19,275
I mean, you have all these refugees
from all these conflicts, uh, vast

403
00:20:19,275 --> 00:20:23,715
majority of them with a bone to pick
with Israel, and yet it's been nothing

404
00:20:23,715 --> 00:20:26,565
but an absolute oasis of stability.

405
00:20:26,865 --> 00:20:28,215
And there's many reasons for that.

406
00:20:28,215 --> 00:20:32,745
I think that obviously the Hashemite Marky
has done a great job and King Abdullah

407
00:20:32,775 --> 00:20:34,245
has followed in the footsteps of his dad.

408
00:20:34,245 --> 00:20:37,095
But I would also say that it
has to do a lot with the Bedwin

409
00:20:37,095 --> 00:20:38,505
culture that they've adopted.

410
00:20:38,865 --> 00:20:43,185
The ability to sort of, you know,
listen to everyone, you know, try to be.

411
00:20:43,565 --> 00:20:46,565
Try to take a cold shower
before making any big decisions.

412
00:20:46,595 --> 00:20:48,095
So there's a lot of reasons for that.

413
00:20:48,095 --> 00:20:51,695
And obviously the support of the
United States has helped, uh, support

414
00:20:51,695 --> 00:20:53,975
of Saudi Arabia as well at times.

415
00:20:54,185 --> 00:20:57,845
Although King Hussein kind of made
some mistakes, specifically with

416
00:20:57,845 --> 00:21:01,595
supporting Saddam a little bit
during the Gulf, the first Gulf War.

417
00:21:01,595 --> 00:21:04,865
But the point that I'm making is
you're absolutely right, and it could

418
00:21:04,865 --> 00:21:06,485
be even worse, not just not exist.

419
00:21:07,415 --> 00:21:10,865
Israel cannot ask for an,
honestly, a better neighbor.

420
00:21:12,120 --> 00:21:16,290
And, and yet the actions of Israelis
are in the long term imperiling.

421
00:21:16,290 --> 00:21:16,530
That.

422
00:21:16,530 --> 00:21:22,170
So if you are pro-Israeli, if you
care about Israel and its existence

423
00:21:22,170 --> 00:21:27,840
in the long term, cast your eye across
the river Jordan, and take a moment

424
00:21:27,840 --> 00:21:35,160
to consider what would happen if
Jordan, um, you know, destabilized.

425
00:21:35,700 --> 00:21:36,750
What's gonna happen then?

426
00:21:37,919 --> 00:21:43,740
Israel's gonna take the East Bank,
you know, I mean, I mean, yeah.

427
00:21:43,770 --> 00:21:46,110
So anyways, that's, I'm,
I'm, that's a ran today.

428
00:21:47,110 --> 00:21:47,399
Jacob Shapiro: Yeah.

429
00:21:47,405 --> 00:21:47,534
Yeah.

430
00:21:47,534 --> 00:21:50,685
I, I'm sure there are, uh, Zionist
zealots who think that, but yeah,

431
00:21:50,685 --> 00:21:51,975
let, let's not get too far down the

432
00:21:52,575 --> 00:21:52,815
Marko Papic: rabbit hole.

433
00:21:52,815 --> 00:21:54,915
Now we, uh, do our, uh,
first commercial read.

434
00:21:54,975 --> 00:22:00,195
Uh, this, uh, podcast is sponsored
by, uh, Royal Jordanian visit Jordan.

435
00:22:01,425 --> 00:22:01,995
I'm just kidding.

436
00:22:02,055 --> 00:22:03,764
It's not at all.

437
00:22:04,895 --> 00:22:06,935
Jacob Shapiro: But this was, but,
but if anybody from Royal Jordanian

438
00:22:06,935 --> 00:22:09,335
would like to talk about that,
please, please email the podcast.

439
00:22:09,335 --> 00:22:10,324
We would love to talk to
you Flights to New York

440
00:22:10,595 --> 00:22:12,035
Marko Papic: from Aman three times a week.

441
00:22:13,235 --> 00:22:14,075
I actually have no idea.

442
00:22:14,855 --> 00:22:17,945
Jacob Shapiro: Uh, it's from what I
understand from friends who, uh, it might

443
00:22:17,945 --> 00:22:21,245
be the worst airline in No, come on.

444
00:22:21,245 --> 00:22:21,455
One.

445
00:22:21,545 --> 00:22:22,445
One of the worst.

446
00:22:22,450 --> 00:22:22,770
One of the worst.

447
00:22:22,770 --> 00:22:23,090
Worst.

448
00:22:23,165 --> 00:22:23,585
I'm sure you have

449
00:22:23,585 --> 00:22:25,890
Marko Papic: clearly not
flown Sub-Saharan air lights.

450
00:22:26,240 --> 00:22:28,955
Jacob Shapiro: Yeah, I was just gonna
say, which is a great segue to the

451
00:22:28,955 --> 00:22:30,215
second thing I wanted to talk about.

452
00:22:30,215 --> 00:22:32,105
I know you wanna talk about
social media and branding.

453
00:22:32,460 --> 00:22:34,110
But you were the one who sent
me that you've been getting.

454
00:22:34,755 --> 00:22:38,145
Pro Ibrahim Chore, I don't think
I'm pronouncing that correctly.

455
00:22:38,145 --> 00:22:43,605
Videos, um, on your YouTube algorithm,
uh, this is the leader, dictator,

456
00:22:43,605 --> 00:22:46,905
president General, whatever he wants
to call himself of Burkina Fasu.

457
00:22:47,295 --> 00:22:50,445
Uh, probably most of our listeners,
uh, I don't know, we have a lot

458
00:22:50,445 --> 00:22:54,255
of nerds here, but so Burkina
Fasu, landlock country in Africa.

459
00:22:54,525 --> 00:22:57,225
Uh, borders on places like Mali.

460
00:22:57,285 --> 00:23:00,075
Uh, yeah, Mali to the
north, Ghana to the south.

461
00:23:00,405 --> 00:23:04,215
Um, doesn't quite touch Nigeria has
some Niger, um, that's in there.

462
00:23:04,905 --> 00:23:07,275
Um, also to the south is, um, ivory Coast.

463
00:23:07,695 --> 00:23:11,565
Um, it's about in terms of population,
the size of Florida, so landlocked

464
00:23:11,565 --> 00:23:13,215
Florida in the middle of Africa.

465
00:23:13,544 --> 00:23:16,514
Um, over 40% of the population
below the poverty line.

466
00:23:16,844 --> 00:23:18,794
Um, agriculture is the primary sector.

467
00:23:18,794 --> 00:23:22,544
It employs 80% of the
workforce producing 35% of GDP.

468
00:23:22,544 --> 00:23:23,864
So we're basically in
the middle ages here.

469
00:23:23,864 --> 00:23:28,455
Basically, peasants, uh, gold is their
biggest export, roughly 70% of exports.

470
00:23:28,455 --> 00:23:32,324
They also export some cottons, some
zinc, some phosphates, some livestock.

471
00:23:32,324 --> 00:23:34,604
I hope you're getting the picture
of what kind of country this is.

472
00:23:35,054 --> 00:23:38,564
Um, they have a penant for coups.

473
00:23:38,985 --> 00:23:41,625
Um, gosh, how many coups have
they had in recent years?

474
00:23:41,655 --> 00:23:42,764
Uh, it's, uh.

475
00:23:43,185 --> 00:23:51,075
19 66, 19 80, 19 82, 19 83, 19
87. Twice in 2000, 2020, uh, 2022.

476
00:23:51,135 --> 00:23:54,675
They also had failed coups
in 19 89, 20 15, 20 23.

477
00:23:55,275 --> 00:23:57,555
Um, so, I mean, not exactly
the most stable place.

478
00:23:57,705 --> 00:24:00,555
They actually did have a very
famous leader named Thomas Sakara.

479
00:24:00,555 --> 00:24:01,395
I was reading about him.

480
00:24:01,395 --> 00:24:04,155
I didn't know about him until I was,
uh, doing the background on this.

481
00:24:04,155 --> 00:24:08,565
Marco, who was the 1983 successful
coup guy, he got assassinated a

482
00:24:08,565 --> 00:24:10,725
couple years later in coup of 1987.

483
00:24:11,100 --> 00:24:13,140
Um, but was a really interesting guy.

484
00:24:13,500 --> 00:24:17,820
Um, embarked on a nationwide literacy
campaign, land re redistribution

485
00:24:17,820 --> 00:24:22,260
to peasants, vaccinating Burkina
Faso's children, outlawing, polygamy,

486
00:24:22,260 --> 00:24:24,210
and, uh, female general mutilation.

487
00:24:24,210 --> 00:24:26,460
I mean, was a really, really
interesting guy and talked about

488
00:24:26,460 --> 00:24:30,180
Burkina Fosso being the vanguard of
the Third world again, assassinated

489
00:24:30,180 --> 00:24:33,390
after like three or four years by his
friend in the Burkina Fa military.

490
00:24:33,780 --> 00:24:37,200
Amidst all that Ibrahim
chore is now the dictator.

491
00:24:37,440 --> 00:24:39,390
Uh, it seems to me that he has none of.

492
00:24:40,155 --> 00:24:44,774
Those classically liberal, uh,
policies of Thomas Sankara.

493
00:24:45,044 --> 00:24:46,935
Uh, but he fancies himself a dictator.

494
00:24:46,935 --> 00:24:48,495
He is cozying up with Russia.

495
00:24:48,645 --> 00:24:51,825
He, uh, went to, I forget which country
he was going to for an inauguration,

496
00:24:51,825 --> 00:24:55,695
but he came with a sidearm strapped and
like gloves on, like has a whole like

497
00:24:55,695 --> 00:24:57,495
thing for theatrics and things like that.

498
00:24:57,495 --> 00:25:01,274
And Margo, you're getting pro videos
of this guy on your YouTube algorithm.

499
00:25:01,274 --> 00:25:02,625
So I hand it over to you.

500
00:25:02,625 --> 00:25:03,915
What have you been watching that?

501
00:25:03,915 --> 00:25:05,565
This is what you get on YouTube my friend.

502
00:25:06,485 --> 00:25:10,385
Marko Papic: So, uh, hopefully we can
get smooth to, uh, plug some of them,

503
00:25:11,525 --> 00:25:15,155
you know, just to, uh, to have some
of our listeners, uh, sample these.

504
00:25:15,185 --> 00:25:18,605
So basically, I don't really
wanna talk about Burkina Faso.

505
00:25:18,725 --> 00:25:22,205
Um, you know, it, it is a large
gold producer in the world.

506
00:25:22,205 --> 00:25:25,415
Gold prices are shooting up,
so, you know, good for them.

507
00:25:25,745 --> 00:25:30,425
That's, uh, drawing a lot of interest
and chore has, uh, kicked out the French.

508
00:25:30,675 --> 00:25:33,375
He's kind of cozied up with
the Russians, the Wagner group.

509
00:25:33,375 --> 00:25:37,425
So there's geopolitical sort of side
issue here, but I wouldn't overstate it.

510
00:25:37,455 --> 00:25:40,754
No one's gonna fight over
Burkina Faso in his gold mines.

511
00:25:40,754 --> 00:25:44,145
Like I bet you anything
geopolitical YouTubers are

512
00:25:44,145 --> 00:25:45,885
like all up in arms about that.

513
00:25:46,185 --> 00:25:49,245
No, that's not gonna happen to me.

514
00:25:49,245 --> 00:25:53,294
What's interesting about it is that
basically I'm sitting out, I'm sitting,

515
00:25:53,355 --> 00:25:59,024
uh, I think like, I don't know, somewhere
trying to watch some NBA highlights.

516
00:25:59,879 --> 00:26:04,860
You know, and one of these YouTube
shorts pops up and it's about,

517
00:26:04,889 --> 00:26:09,540
it's a pro like video, so I click
on it 'cause I'm like, what?

518
00:26:09,540 --> 00:26:10,800
Burkina Faso.

519
00:26:10,889 --> 00:26:12,659
I haven't heard that
country in a long time.

520
00:26:12,659 --> 00:26:17,220
And it's basically some, you know,
chill dude who keeps pronouncing

521
00:26:17,220 --> 00:26:19,290
the country's name as Burkina Facia.

522
00:26:22,155 --> 00:26:23,490
Well, I mean, and he just goes, I'm not an

523
00:26:23,490 --> 00:26:23,790
Jacob Shapiro: expert.

524
00:26:23,790 --> 00:26:23,940
May.

525
00:26:23,940 --> 00:26:25,290
Maybe that's the right
way to pronounce it.

526
00:26:25,290 --> 00:26:27,660
I don't actually, I don't think so,

527
00:26:27,990 --> 00:26:31,320
Marko Papic: but like he goes off about
how it's awesome and I'm like, whatever.

528
00:26:31,320 --> 00:26:34,290
I don't understand where this
person came from, but sure.

529
00:26:34,680 --> 00:26:37,860
Going back to watching my Lakers
get shredded by the Timberwolves

530
00:26:38,220 --> 00:26:41,700
and then a couple of days later,
boom, another one this time.

531
00:26:41,760 --> 00:26:43,590
It's a cute girl.

532
00:26:43,935 --> 00:26:48,705
You know, young Hip, like it would
be one of those videos for like how

533
00:26:48,705 --> 00:26:53,295
to put on nice foundation before
the makeup goes on and boom, she's

534
00:26:53,295 --> 00:26:57,345
staring at a camera and talking about
Burkina Faso and how TRO is awesome.

535
00:26:57,345 --> 00:27:02,415
And then I realized like, wait
a minute, this guy is literally.

536
00:27:02,895 --> 00:27:08,385
Like paying people around the
world to make these videos.

537
00:27:08,385 --> 00:27:15,285
Like can we just stop for a second and
acknowledge that Ibrahim tra dude with

538
00:27:15,285 --> 00:27:20,210
a sidearm and white gloves and like he's
actually paying people around the world

539
00:27:21,255 --> 00:27:29,385
or some PR agency to create these poorly
engineered yet organic videos about how

540
00:27:29,385 --> 00:27:31,485
he's an awesome revolutionary leader.

541
00:27:32,565 --> 00:27:36,585
I'm just like, wow, geopolitics is gone.

542
00:27:36,735 --> 00:27:37,185
Like, no.

543
00:27:37,185 --> 00:27:41,445
All I'm thinking about like, Jacob,
you and I are gonna become like

544
00:27:41,505 --> 00:27:48,555
absolute millionaires and here's why
geopolitics is gone like mainstream.

545
00:27:48,975 --> 00:27:52,305
You know, just this guy
tr he's, he's on our side.

546
00:27:52,305 --> 00:27:53,355
He's on our corner.

547
00:27:53,535 --> 00:27:54,465
God bless him.

548
00:27:55,155 --> 00:27:57,315
In fact, let me tell you something.

549
00:27:57,675 --> 00:27:59,865
He has shown perseverance.

550
00:28:00,675 --> 00:28:04,305
Fighting off the colonial
French who wanted his minds.

551
00:28:05,025 --> 00:28:06,014
I, I'm just kidding.

552
00:28:06,105 --> 00:28:08,805
He actually hasn't paid me yet, so
I can't really do the whole bit.

553
00:28:09,135 --> 00:28:10,485
But the point is, it's insane.

554
00:28:10,965 --> 00:28:15,315
Like social media has become a
geopolitical battleground now.

555
00:28:15,375 --> 00:28:17,925
I know a lot of people are gonna say,
dude, that's always been the case.

556
00:28:17,925 --> 00:28:19,695
Like, you know, Russia
has stole the election.

557
00:28:19,695 --> 00:28:20,655
Like, no, no, no, no.

558
00:28:20,865 --> 00:28:24,975
This is much more organic, much
more low key, much more lowbrow,

559
00:28:25,425 --> 00:28:26,985
and it's kind of awesome.

560
00:28:28,740 --> 00:28:31,889
Jacob Shapiro: You know, um,
he is the exact same age that

561
00:28:31,889 --> 00:28:33,600
I am, so he's younger than you.

562
00:28:33,600 --> 00:28:35,429
In some sense, we should
view him as a competitor.

563
00:28:35,429 --> 00:28:37,379
And maybe Marco, it shouldn't
be you and I talking.

564
00:28:37,379 --> 00:28:40,530
Maybe we should get some cute girl putting
on her foundation and then looking in

565
00:28:40,530 --> 00:28:44,250
the camera and being like Multipolarity
and Royal Jordanian Airlines.

566
00:28:44,250 --> 00:28:46,679
What is the combination of these
things and why should you listen

567
00:28:46,679 --> 00:28:48,360
to Marco Papich and Jacob Shapiro?

568
00:28:48,780 --> 00:28:49,169
Um.

569
00:28:49,635 --> 00:28:51,345
But so, so, so he is younger than you?

570
00:28:51,495 --> 00:28:51,825
Yes.

571
00:28:51,825 --> 00:28:54,795
And I, I will say, I'll, I take that, I'll
take a little bit of the other side, which

572
00:28:54,795 --> 00:28:58,875
is to say, this is obviously Russia is
pushing this like the, like this has the

573
00:28:58,875 --> 00:29:01,515
Kremlin's propaganda fingers all over it.

574
00:29:01,515 --> 00:29:03,585
And why they're, maybe
they're testing something out.

575
00:29:03,585 --> 00:29:04,065
I don't know.

576
00:29:04,065 --> 00:29:06,495
Like I don't think that Chori
was sitting there and was like,

577
00:29:06,495 --> 00:29:07,755
haha, I will use you YouTube.

578
00:29:07,755 --> 00:29:08,085
No disagree.

579
00:29:08,085 --> 00:29:08,685
In order to

580
00:29:09,045 --> 00:29:09,765
Marko Papic: I disagree.

581
00:29:09,765 --> 00:29:10,000
You disagree, Aaron?

582
00:29:10,000 --> 00:29:10,200
Fine.

583
00:29:10,200 --> 00:29:10,400
Go.

584
00:29:10,425 --> 00:29:11,115
I disagree.

585
00:29:11,265 --> 00:29:12,285
I think you nailed it.

586
00:29:12,285 --> 00:29:13,785
And actually I noted his age.

587
00:29:13,845 --> 00:29:14,685
I looked him up.

588
00:29:14,805 --> 00:29:15,135
Yes.

589
00:29:15,135 --> 00:29:15,975
He's like 37.

590
00:29:15,975 --> 00:29:16,305
Right.

591
00:29:16,845 --> 00:29:17,685
Jacob Shapiro: He is 37.

592
00:29:17,865 --> 00:29:18,135
There you go.

593
00:29:18,165 --> 00:29:18,345
So

594
00:29:18,345 --> 00:29:20,445
Marko Papic: I noted that
and I was like, no man.

595
00:29:20,505 --> 00:29:23,535
I bet you, I bet you
he's doing this himself.

596
00:29:23,535 --> 00:29:26,445
Actually, he may not even like this.

597
00:29:26,445 --> 00:29:30,975
There is a department right in his like
communication administrator or something,

598
00:29:32,085 --> 00:29:37,605
and he has literally hired the person
to do this because he's 37, because he's

599
00:29:37,605 --> 00:29:41,685
tech savvy, because he probably spends
like seven hours a day on YouTube.

600
00:29:42,104 --> 00:29:46,665
This guy is literally paying
people to do his branding and pr.

601
00:29:47,054 --> 00:29:47,745
To what end?

602
00:29:47,745 --> 00:29:52,635
I'm not really sure, but I, I for
sure hope that he listens to us.

603
00:29:52,725 --> 00:29:58,935
I will do a live show out of
Burkina Faso, like bring it.

604
00:29:59,745 --> 00:30:01,364
Jacob Shapiro: Do you know
what the capital, Burkina Faso?

605
00:30:01,364 --> 00:30:01,574
Yes, it's

606
00:30:02,625 --> 00:30:02,834
Marko Papic: uga.

607
00:30:03,405 --> 00:30:05,294
Uh, wait.

608
00:30:05,415 --> 00:30:05,655
Jacob Shapiro: Wow.

609
00:30:05,655 --> 00:30:06,014
Something like that.

610
00:30:06,020 --> 00:30:06,189
Okay.

611
00:30:06,195 --> 00:30:08,985
I, yeah, I, I wasn't even gonna try
to pronounce it, but I see that.

612
00:30:08,985 --> 00:30:10,004
I see that you have it there.

613
00:30:10,305 --> 00:30:11,235
He also Is that, what is this?

614
00:30:11,535 --> 00:30:11,835
Wait, wait.

615
00:30:11,840 --> 00:30:12,525
How do you, you got

616
00:30:12,525 --> 00:30:12,720
Marko Papic: it, pronounce it.

617
00:30:13,725 --> 00:30:14,715
Jacob Shapiro: I don't
know how to pronounce it.

618
00:30:14,715 --> 00:30:18,765
It's spelled O-O-U-A-G-A-D-O-U-G-O-U.

619
00:30:18,915 --> 00:30:19,665
I think it's wa, yes.

620
00:30:19,725 --> 00:30:20,325
Wagu.

621
00:30:20,325 --> 00:30:21,705
It's got some French stuff in there.

622
00:30:22,065 --> 00:30:24,405
Um, he's also got not an,
not on an interesting past.

623
00:30:24,405 --> 00:30:26,025
He studied geology and university.

624
00:30:26,025 --> 00:30:29,475
He was part of an association of
association of Muslim students and a

625
00:30:29,475 --> 00:30:31,065
Marxist association when he was in school.

626
00:30:31,065 --> 00:30:31,095
Oh.

627
00:30:31,095 --> 00:30:31,515
At the same time,

628
00:30:31,875 --> 00:30:36,255
Marko Papic: this guy is just hedging,
hedging, Islamist and Marxist.

629
00:30:36,315 --> 00:30:37,845
You know, like he doesn't care.

630
00:30:38,640 --> 00:30:41,430
I mean, no, this guy,
well, his biggest challenge

631
00:30:41,430 --> 00:30:43,890
Jacob Shapiro: is the Jihadists,
like Burkina, FASU, Niger,

632
00:30:43,890 --> 00:30:45,030
all these different countries.

633
00:30:45,030 --> 00:30:49,200
I mean, this is like smuggling Central
and the Jihadists and all these others

634
00:30:49,200 --> 00:30:52,260
are moving weapons and drugs and people
through all these different things.

635
00:30:52,260 --> 00:30:54,780
And the reason that he's in the position
that he is and that you've had coups

636
00:30:54,780 --> 00:30:57,629
in all of these different countries,
and why they're also mad at the French

637
00:30:57,629 --> 00:31:01,050
is because nobody could stop this and
they're dealing with massive insecurity.

638
00:31:01,050 --> 00:31:03,629
And you're probably gonna have a
population that is willing to trade.

639
00:31:04,290 --> 00:31:07,080
You know, whatever the heck he wants to
do, wearing gloves with his side arm.

640
00:31:07,380 --> 00:31:10,440
If he gives them security, I don't know if
he's gonna be able to give them security.

641
00:31:10,440 --> 00:31:11,370
This is a tall task.

642
00:31:11,370 --> 00:31:14,550
This is not, uh, this is not like
bouquet le where he can just lock

643
00:31:14,550 --> 00:31:19,140
them all up and then start, you know,
uh, uh, harvest, uh, mining Bitcoin

644
00:31:19,140 --> 00:31:20,880
with the powers from the volcano.

645
00:31:20,880 --> 00:31:24,600
Like Burino FSU doesn't really have
much that it can really go with, and

646
00:31:24,600 --> 00:31:27,660
he's gonna have to really defeat the
GI and listen and he's gonna survive.

647
00:31:27,660 --> 00:31:28,020
So,

648
00:31:28,260 --> 00:31:29,040
Marko Papic: listen, listen.

649
00:31:29,400 --> 00:31:33,060
So what if the gold bugs are right
and gold goes to 5,000, right?

650
00:31:33,445 --> 00:31:37,615
Like, look, I just, I just wanna say
right away, uh, I Raheem, uh, sorry.

651
00:31:37,645 --> 00:31:42,355
President Tro I, Marco Poppi, I was pretty
much the first to notice what you're doing

652
00:31:42,355 --> 00:31:44,005
on social media and call it brilliant.

653
00:31:44,485 --> 00:31:49,050
Uh, when you set up your Sovereign Wealth
fund, I. You got your CIO right here.

654
00:31:49,230 --> 00:31:49,620
Boom.

655
00:31:49,680 --> 00:31:50,190
There you go.

656
00:31:51,540 --> 00:31:53,520
Jacob Shapiro: I don't think
gold going to 5,000 is gonna

657
00:31:53,520 --> 00:31:54,900
make enough of a difference here.

658
00:31:55,170 --> 00:31:56,041
I think you're overstating it.

659
00:31:56,046 --> 00:31:56,100
It

660
00:31:56,100 --> 00:31:57,330
Marko Papic: probably, it probably won't.

661
00:31:57,390 --> 00:32:00,570
It's actually, uh, look, it's a large
country, as you said, the size of Florida.

662
00:32:00,870 --> 00:32:02,310
Uh, lots of people.

663
00:32:02,760 --> 00:32:05,580
Um, I think it's like 38
million or something like that.

664
00:32:05,610 --> 00:32:08,640
Um, and, uh, so yeah,
uh, lots of challenges.

665
00:32:08,670 --> 00:32:09,600
This isn't, uh.

666
00:32:10,440 --> 00:32:12,270
This isn't an easy
country to run, actually.

667
00:32:12,270 --> 00:32:13,260
What is the population?

668
00:32:13,260 --> 00:32:13,860
Let's see here.

669
00:32:14,250 --> 00:32:15,090
I don't think I got that

670
00:32:15,090 --> 00:32:15,420
Jacob Shapiro: right.

671
00:32:15,420 --> 00:32:16,135
Think's like 0.3 23 million.

672
00:32:16,315 --> 00:32:17,040
Marko Papic: It is 23.

673
00:32:17,040 --> 00:32:17,520
My bad.

674
00:32:17,580 --> 00:32:18,420
Yeah, I just doubled.

675
00:32:18,420 --> 00:32:19,170
Well, you know what?

676
00:32:19,230 --> 00:32:23,760
I'm already thinking and I already
took Ghana, uh, for my future,

677
00:32:23,820 --> 00:32:26,280
uh, president, so there you go.

678
00:32:26,340 --> 00:32:27,540
I just combined it with Ghana.

679
00:32:27,540 --> 00:32:32,700
But anyways, look, the point is, joking
aside, I think that it's fascinating.

680
00:32:32,700 --> 00:32:35,700
Like I should not, my, my
YouTube algorithm obviously

681
00:32:35,700 --> 00:32:37,110
is trying to figure me out.

682
00:32:37,560 --> 00:32:41,280
Knows I'm a basketball fan
and I guess love geopolitics,

683
00:32:41,700 --> 00:32:43,440
so he just like targeted me.

684
00:32:43,770 --> 00:32:47,340
But I wonder if any other of our
listeners were targeted with these

685
00:32:47,580 --> 00:32:50,520
random videos of a random president.

686
00:32:51,105 --> 00:32:53,655
Like, and, and to what end?

687
00:32:53,655 --> 00:32:57,495
I don't know, but I do know that
geopolitics is becoming far more

688
00:32:57,495 --> 00:32:59,325
mainstream than just a bunch of nerds.

689
00:32:59,325 --> 00:33:03,315
You know, IR nerds who like went to
model United Nations in high school.

690
00:33:04,125 --> 00:33:05,805
Jacob Shapiro: Maybe one of our
listeners will tell us that there's

691
00:33:05,805 --> 00:33:06,975
much a do here about nothing.

692
00:33:06,975 --> 00:33:09,135
But there, you're not the
first one to notice it.

693
00:33:09,135 --> 00:33:11,595
I hate to burst your bubble,
like in just the last month.

694
00:33:11,595 --> 00:33:11,655
Oh.

695
00:33:11,655 --> 00:33:13,740
The, the Economist had a profile of him.

696
00:33:13,770 --> 00:33:16,709
The Council on Foreign Relations had
a negative profile, like most of these

697
00:33:16,709 --> 00:33:20,159
things being anti his policies and
talking about him as a pro-Russian

698
00:33:20,159 --> 00:33:21,929
Force, anti French, anti the west.

699
00:33:22,139 --> 00:33:22,620
That's not the point.

700
00:33:22,620 --> 00:33:22,919
But did talk

701
00:33:22,919 --> 00:33:23,639
Marko Papic: about social media.

702
00:33:24,584 --> 00:33:27,435
Jacob Shapiro: Uh, they all, uh, not as
much that you, you have the social media

703
00:33:27,435 --> 00:33:30,975
thing, but I'm just saying that like,
they got in the economists' algorithm

704
00:33:31,034 --> 00:33:35,355
and they got in the CFRs algorithm
so that they're like focusing on this

705
00:33:35,355 --> 00:33:38,534
guy, which there are tons of different
places all around the world where you

706
00:33:38,534 --> 00:33:41,355
probably have leaders who would love to
have a profile in the Economist, even

707
00:33:41,355 --> 00:33:42,735
if it's a negative one and they don't.

708
00:33:42,735 --> 00:33:43,695
And this guy does.

709
00:33:43,910 --> 00:33:46,850
So something is happening where he
is like, he's winning, getting on

710
00:33:46,850 --> 00:33:50,510
the radar of, of Western states and
of English press to, to what end?

711
00:33:50,515 --> 00:33:51,230
Like, like with you?

712
00:33:51,230 --> 00:33:52,670
I'm not quite sure, but it's happening.

713
00:33:52,730 --> 00:33:54,410
It's, it's interesting
that it's happening.

714
00:33:54,590 --> 00:33:57,440
So, um, okay.

715
00:33:57,860 --> 00:33:59,630
Um, that is segment number two.

716
00:33:59,660 --> 00:34:00,680
Segment number three.

717
00:34:00,680 --> 00:34:03,620
You wanted to talk about
geopolitical quantitative.

718
00:34:03,620 --> 00:34:04,790
Quantitative titan.

719
00:34:05,489 --> 00:34:07,590
Yeah, I have no idea where
you're going with this.

720
00:34:07,590 --> 00:34:08,730
Why don't you lead us off?

721
00:34:09,810 --> 00:34:10,259
Marko Papic: Alright.

722
00:34:10,259 --> 00:34:13,440
Well, the, you know what, uh, two,
so I've been traveling the world,

723
00:34:13,529 --> 00:34:15,929
um, over the last three weeks.

724
00:34:15,929 --> 00:34:19,529
So I did an around the world trip to
visit my clients and give some speeches.

725
00:34:19,560 --> 00:34:24,509
It started with Hong Kong, Singapore,
Abu Dhabi, Dubai, musket, Riyadh.

726
00:34:24,569 --> 00:34:28,350
I'm actually recording this out
of Vadu in Liechtenstein, um,

727
00:34:28,560 --> 00:34:32,069
where I had some great fun with
clients and, and, and good friends.

728
00:34:32,069 --> 00:34:35,130
And, uh, it's interesting to me
that nobody's really panicking.

729
00:34:35,565 --> 00:34:40,005
You know, Americans are kind of panicking
about President Trump and the tariffs.

730
00:34:40,364 --> 00:34:44,235
The rest of the world is not,
they're not happy about it.

731
00:34:44,324 --> 00:34:48,105
But I didn't get a sense of, you
know, that the rest of the world

732
00:34:48,105 --> 00:34:49,574
thinks that the world is collapsing.

733
00:34:49,665 --> 00:34:50,924
So that was, that was interesting.

734
00:34:51,614 --> 00:34:54,525
I did not get asked
about a recession at all.

735
00:34:55,199 --> 00:34:56,339
No, I got asked about

736
00:34:56,699 --> 00:34:57,420
Jacob Shapiro: because
we're already in one.

737
00:34:57,509 --> 00:34:57,720
Sorry.

738
00:34:58,440 --> 00:34:59,670
Marko Papic: Yeah, no, and that's fine.

739
00:34:59,670 --> 00:35:03,180
Like we, we, we might be already in
one, but you know, it's like whatever.

740
00:35:03,180 --> 00:35:03,569
Sure.

741
00:35:03,600 --> 00:35:04,110
Whatever.

742
00:35:04,500 --> 00:35:05,130
It'll be fine.

743
00:35:05,759 --> 00:35:07,920
Uh, and maybe that's a sign
that it won't be fine by the

744
00:35:07,920 --> 00:35:09,120
way, and that's perfectly fine.

745
00:35:09,360 --> 00:35:10,440
Um, I understand that.

746
00:35:10,529 --> 00:35:15,210
But what was interesting to me was,
first of all, everyone's already kind

747
00:35:15,210 --> 00:35:19,110
of comfortable with this world, and
I mentioned earlier Saudi Arabia.

748
00:35:19,725 --> 00:35:25,935
You know, and I uh, mentioned basically
how after the up cake cur attack in 2019.

749
00:35:27,045 --> 00:35:31,905
Saudi Arabia realized that it was, you
know, it, it was kind of on its own,

750
00:35:32,595 --> 00:35:36,615
and so it had to make the deal with
Iran without American participation.

751
00:35:37,395 --> 00:35:40,485
And then two things happened
over the past week or so.

752
00:35:40,665 --> 00:35:43,125
First of all, we have India,
Pakistan exchanging fires.

753
00:35:43,125 --> 00:35:44,805
We talked about that last podcast.

754
00:35:45,435 --> 00:35:49,185
And Vice President Shady Vance
said very similar to President

755
00:35:49,185 --> 00:35:50,715
Trump's comments in the Houthis.

756
00:35:51,255 --> 00:35:52,815
He basically said like, look.

757
00:35:53,400 --> 00:35:57,630
America wishes that these two countries
would settle their differences peacefully,

758
00:35:58,110 --> 00:36:01,560
and we certainly would hope that
they do so, but it's not our fight.

759
00:36:04,050 --> 00:36:06,930
So you've got JD Vance basically
saying like, look, India and

760
00:36:06,930 --> 00:36:08,790
Pakistan, like, God bless you both.

761
00:36:08,790 --> 00:36:10,080
We hope that you figure it out.

762
00:36:10,440 --> 00:36:13,020
And then President Trump saying
like, well, we made a deal with the

763
00:36:13,020 --> 00:36:15,180
Houthis, like everyone else have fun.

764
00:36:16,440 --> 00:36:19,740
And so there are two ways
to interpret this one.

765
00:36:20,160 --> 00:36:22,950
Is this hegemonic
stability thesis, you know?

766
00:36:23,400 --> 00:36:25,260
This is why Unipolarity is so good.

767
00:36:25,290 --> 00:36:29,100
Charles Kindleberger famous
economic historian, wrote

768
00:36:29,100 --> 00:36:31,350
about this in various books.

769
00:36:31,380 --> 00:36:36,750
Um, this idea that the Hegemon
provides, uh, it solves the collective

770
00:36:36,750 --> 00:36:41,220
action dilemma of the world by
providing global public goods such as

771
00:36:41,340 --> 00:36:43,440
literally the freedom of navigation.

772
00:36:43,620 --> 00:36:48,090
So the Houthis ex, uh, example being very
important because the US has effectively

773
00:36:48,090 --> 00:36:50,430
just announced that it will no longer.

774
00:36:50,715 --> 00:36:53,955
Provide a very expensive
global public good, which is

775
00:36:54,465 --> 00:36:57,045
free seaborne transportation.

776
00:36:57,045 --> 00:37:00,230
Like they, they will do so
for their own ships and so.

777
00:37:03,000 --> 00:37:07,109
So the, the consensus view is basically
that without hegemonic stability, you

778
00:37:07,109 --> 00:37:10,470
have, you know, multipolar instability.

779
00:37:10,740 --> 00:37:14,490
There is no more America ensuring that
the rest of the world is going to be safe.

780
00:37:14,490 --> 00:37:17,634
This is effectively the beginning of
the end of the world as our former,

781
00:37:19,230 --> 00:37:21,995
uh, colleague and, and good friend
Peter Zion, you know, wrote his book.

782
00:37:23,214 --> 00:37:23,634
But then.

783
00:37:25,200 --> 00:37:27,839
I have a different way to interpret
this, especially when I look at what's

784
00:37:27,839 --> 00:37:31,859
happened with Iran and Saudi Arabia
making a, a, a very stable detant,

785
00:37:31,890 --> 00:37:36,390
which has ensured that the Israeli
Palestinian conflict doesn't actually

786
00:37:36,390 --> 00:37:38,850
spill over the rest of the Middle East.

787
00:37:38,850 --> 00:37:43,169
I mean, yes, Iran and Israel Exchange
missile fire, but it hasn't spread

788
00:37:43,169 --> 00:37:44,250
to the rest of the Middle East.

789
00:37:44,250 --> 00:37:46,020
And in fact, the rest of
the Middle East is quite.

790
00:37:46,920 --> 00:37:47,610
Quite stable.

791
00:37:47,610 --> 00:37:51,870
I just visited three countries in
the Persian Gulf and they're awesome.

792
00:37:52,440 --> 00:37:53,580
There's absolutely nothing.

793
00:37:53,580 --> 00:37:56,310
No, I mean, there's absolutely
nothing going on there.

794
00:37:56,310 --> 00:37:56,850
That's wrong.

795
00:37:56,850 --> 00:38:02,430
It would be like saying West Germany and
Denmark are unstable because the Iron

796
00:38:02,430 --> 00:38:04,530
Curtain is next door during the Cold War.

797
00:38:04,530 --> 00:38:05,460
Well, that wasn't the case.

798
00:38:05,460 --> 00:38:07,620
Yes, iron Curtain countries behind it.

799
00:38:07,620 --> 00:38:10,560
Were in a bad shape, but West
Germany was freaking awesome.

800
00:38:11,250 --> 00:38:12,600
So what I'm saying is that.

801
00:38:13,365 --> 00:38:17,115
Iran and Saudi Arabia
actually came to an agreement.

802
00:38:17,145 --> 00:38:18,884
They had to sit down like adults.

803
00:38:19,065 --> 00:38:22,935
They had to, they had to talk, they
had to delineate their interests

804
00:38:23,475 --> 00:38:27,225
and they had to resolve their
differences in, in a very frosty way.

805
00:38:27,225 --> 00:38:28,845
No one's saying there's
peace between them.

806
00:38:29,505 --> 00:38:35,325
What I'm getting at is this, yes, you
can view American hegemony and provision

807
00:38:35,325 --> 00:38:38,265
of all these public goods as a very.

808
00:38:38,730 --> 00:38:44,970
Very stable, but at some point it can also
become like quantitative easing qe and,

809
00:38:45,029 --> 00:38:51,210
and many people in finance know that with
a central bank flooded the economy with

810
00:38:51,210 --> 00:38:54,810
effectively cheap money with qe, it's.

811
00:38:55,215 --> 00:38:58,575
It saved us from the great
financial crisis and it's aftermath.

812
00:38:58,635 --> 00:38:59,385
Absolutely.

813
00:38:59,385 --> 00:39:02,955
I'm definitely not one of those people
who shaked their little fist and angrily,

814
00:39:03,075 --> 00:39:06,465
you know, because I was short for the next
four years and got my face ripped off.

815
00:39:07,845 --> 00:39:12,615
But at the same time, we all know that
it created distortions in the economy.

816
00:39:13,605 --> 00:39:19,785
So, in other words, when, when a hegemon
provides stability, it does so in a way

817
00:39:19,785 --> 00:39:25,155
that distorts reality and often countries
and regions and entire geographies

818
00:39:25,155 --> 00:39:30,825
become addicted to that provision
of, you know, cheap geopolitical.

819
00:39:33,180 --> 00:39:34,290
Um, stability.

820
00:39:34,710 --> 00:39:40,140
You have vassal states that
effectively act with impunity because

821
00:39:40,140 --> 00:39:41,880
they are supported by the hegemon.

822
00:39:42,300 --> 00:39:46,530
You have rivals that feel slighted,
that feel normatively and ideologically

823
00:39:46,530 --> 00:39:50,490
opposed in an existential way where
they cannot come to an agreement

824
00:39:51,510 --> 00:39:54,420
and that creates instability.

825
00:39:55,140 --> 00:40:01,530
So the Withdrawal Withdrawal of American
support or American oversight or American

826
00:40:01,530 --> 00:40:06,000
Geopolitical qe, so that you know, in
financial terms would be quantitative

827
00:40:06,000 --> 00:40:10,080
tightening, which by the way, the Fed
has been doing for several years and

828
00:40:10,080 --> 00:40:11,610
everybody thought it would end humanity.

829
00:40:11,610 --> 00:40:13,470
It hasn't at all.

830
00:40:13,980 --> 00:40:14,910
Similarly.

831
00:40:15,120 --> 00:40:18,629
The United States of America
withdrawing its overarching

832
00:40:18,629 --> 00:40:22,200
support may not create instability.

833
00:40:22,200 --> 00:40:25,980
In fact, it may create stability
because countries have to act

834
00:40:26,069 --> 00:40:27,660
with each other, like adults.

835
00:40:28,020 --> 00:40:31,230
They no longer, you know, countries
that are American allies like Israel

836
00:40:31,290 --> 00:40:35,640
or Ukraine or Taiwan, may not have
the blank check that they once had.

837
00:40:36,285 --> 00:40:37,815
Which is not a bad thing.

838
00:40:38,475 --> 00:40:42,465
It may force them to actually consider
their security and threat environment

839
00:40:42,645 --> 00:40:45,405
and say, look, we don't have America
at their back all the time, so we

840
00:40:45,405 --> 00:40:49,185
should actually sit down with our
neighbors, with our rivals and create

841
00:40:49,335 --> 00:40:54,225
a geopolitical equilibrium that is
effectively, you know, uh, more durable.

842
00:40:54,375 --> 00:40:58,215
They can, they can withstand a
Donald Trump, they can withstand

843
00:40:58,215 --> 00:41:00,285
in the future a president, a OC.

844
00:41:01,620 --> 00:41:04,590
And so that's, that's kind of my
lesson over the last couple of weeks

845
00:41:04,590 --> 00:41:11,580
that that's gotten me thinking that
maybe we overstate how beneficial.

846
00:41:11,970 --> 00:41:13,590
Hegemonic stability is,

847
00:41:14,910 --> 00:41:17,070
Jacob Shapiro: yeah, I think
I would, I think I would push

848
00:41:17,070 --> 00:41:19,560
back or, or caveat in two ways.

849
00:41:19,860 --> 00:41:25,020
I think you're right that I think
you're right for strong and developed

850
00:41:25,020 --> 00:41:29,820
powers, because now stable balances
of power have to emerge rather than a

851
00:41:29,820 --> 00:41:32,545
hegemon being responsible for everything
else and people pushing against

852
00:41:32,580 --> 00:41:33,840
the hegemon and things like that.

853
00:41:34,200 --> 00:41:38,730
But as you can see in places like
Burkina Fasu or in Congo or with Indian

854
00:41:38,730 --> 00:41:40,500
Pakistan, like places on the periphery.

855
00:41:40,860 --> 00:41:44,340
Those places get worse because
those places become the proxy wars

856
00:41:44,340 --> 00:41:46,920
that the Olympians use to fight
their battles because they're

857
00:41:46,920 --> 00:41:48,180
not gonna fight their battles.

858
00:41:48,300 --> 00:41:51,630
So sort of to your point with real
wars, Russia tried to do that and

859
00:41:51,630 --> 00:41:52,860
look where Russia is right now.

860
00:41:52,860 --> 00:41:55,770
Nobody else is gonna do that, China
included with Taiwan in my opinion.

861
00:41:56,100 --> 00:41:59,700
But it's in those like forgotten places of
the world that nobody really cares about.

862
00:41:59,700 --> 00:42:02,340
I think that actually the lack of
hegemonic power, and it's not even

863
00:42:02,340 --> 00:42:06,210
hegemonic power, the lack of international
order, like those are the places

864
00:42:06,210 --> 00:42:07,590
that I think it shows up the most.

865
00:42:07,860 --> 00:42:09,540
And the second is, um.

866
00:42:10,080 --> 00:42:12,810
I think you're right for, for
the snapshot in history where.

867
00:42:13,455 --> 00:42:16,635
Countries are all trying to take
advantage of the multipolar system.

868
00:42:17,145 --> 00:42:21,135
But previous area eras of multipolarity
eventually go to the point where you

869
00:42:21,135 --> 00:42:24,645
have countries that get strong enough
in their own backyards where they think

870
00:42:24,645 --> 00:42:28,425
they can be the global hegemon, or they
have an imperative, say like Japan in

871
00:42:28,425 --> 00:42:32,325
the early 19 hundreds to become a hegemon
because otherwise they can't continue to

872
00:42:32,325 --> 00:42:36,225
grow or can't continue to do the things
that geopolitics is forcing them to do.

873
00:42:36,525 --> 00:42:37,215
So you have this.

874
00:42:37,245 --> 00:42:37,815
Period.

875
00:42:37,815 --> 00:42:40,545
I think you're right of like
stable dynamism where you have

876
00:42:40,545 --> 00:42:41,924
balancing against each other.

877
00:42:42,225 --> 00:42:45,134
But if you get to the point where
say, uh, and we're not there,

878
00:42:45,134 --> 00:42:47,775
people have been calling this about
China for example, for decades.

879
00:42:48,134 --> 00:42:51,884
The moment where China really can't
feed itself or can't power itself and

880
00:42:51,884 --> 00:42:55,005
it has to go out and get those things
from other places, and it needs, you

881
00:42:55,005 --> 00:42:56,535
know, a Blue Water Navy to do that.

882
00:42:56,535 --> 00:42:59,595
It needs to fight the Americans or
the Russians or anybody else, wherever

883
00:42:59,595 --> 00:43:02,895
they are, in order to secure access
to those resources, and they think

884
00:43:02,895 --> 00:43:04,154
that they're strong enough to do it.

885
00:43:04,575 --> 00:43:06,975
Well, suddenly you can
get sort of global war.

886
00:43:06,975 --> 00:43:10,035
So I, the caveat there is, I think you're
right in the short term, I just think

887
00:43:10,035 --> 00:43:14,115
that if you go too far in that direction
and you get countries that begin to

888
00:43:14,115 --> 00:43:17,715
drink the Kool-Aid and believe that
they are themselves, regional hegemons,

889
00:43:17,715 --> 00:43:21,165
then you get the, the possibility
of some of these global conflicts.

890
00:43:21,165 --> 00:43:22,875
And I think the hardest
thing for countries in

891
00:43:22,875 --> 00:43:24,404
navigating the multipolar era.

892
00:43:24,705 --> 00:43:28,125
We'll be 20 years from now that we're
not in World War ii because I think if

893
00:43:28,125 --> 00:43:32,265
things go unchecked and if you get the
US on one side and China on one side, and

894
00:43:32,265 --> 00:43:35,325
Europe and all of these mutually exclusive
interests and countries that think they

895
00:43:35,325 --> 00:43:39,045
are strong enough or deserve different
things, like then you can get into the

896
00:43:39,045 --> 00:43:42,165
situation that we were in in the early
19 hundreds and, and mid 19 hundreds.

897
00:43:42,165 --> 00:43:45,495
But I, I think broadly speaking,
like that's the reason I am so

898
00:43:45,495 --> 00:43:48,915
like optimistic from an investment
perspective over the next 10 to 15 years.

899
00:43:48,915 --> 00:43:52,845
This should be a time of booming, not
of, to your point, like constraint.

900
00:43:54,000 --> 00:43:56,790
Marko Papic: Well, I mean, uh,
but let's, let's put ourselves

901
00:43:56,790 --> 00:43:59,009
back in 1914, you know?

902
00:43:59,009 --> 00:43:59,520
Mm-hmm.

903
00:44:00,720 --> 00:44:03,930
I may have done this with the podcast
before, so stop me if I have, but

904
00:44:04,319 --> 00:44:05,250
Jacob Shapiro: you know, I don't
think, I don't remember this.

905
00:44:05,910 --> 00:44:08,940
Marko Papic: Okay, so let's,
let's say the go of Princip,

906
00:44:09,240 --> 00:44:11,400
you know, shut out to my people.

907
00:44:11,400 --> 00:44:18,359
Serbs original terrorists since
1914, uh, started World War I, right.

908
00:44:18,420 --> 00:44:19,650
Um, shot.

909
00:44:20,700 --> 00:44:25,649
The, uh, crown Prince of basically
Aster Hungary in Sarajevo, and

910
00:44:25,649 --> 00:44:30,689
that launches World War I. Now,
let's imagine, let's create a

911
00:44:30,689 --> 00:44:35,189
scenario, a game where that happens.

912
00:44:35,250 --> 00:44:37,950
But every great power is a nuclear power.

913
00:44:37,950 --> 00:44:39,720
Mm-hmm.

914
00:44:40,649 --> 00:44:41,939
So Serbia is not a great power.

915
00:44:41,939 --> 00:44:46,770
So no nukes for Serbia, but also Hungary
is, they have nukes, Russia has nukes.

916
00:44:47,490 --> 00:44:48,120
Uh.

917
00:44:48,780 --> 00:44:51,765
German Empire has nukes,
France has nus, have

918
00:44:51,770 --> 00:44:52,080
Jacob Shapiro: nukes,

919
00:44:52,710 --> 00:44:54,000
Marko Papic: uh, let's say no.

920
00:44:54,870 --> 00:44:55,259
Jacob Shapiro: Oh, okay.

921
00:44:55,320 --> 00:44:57,750
That's, that's, uh, throwing some
shade at the Ottomans, but, okay.

922
00:44:57,750 --> 00:44:58,380
What, let's throw some shade.

923
00:44:58,380 --> 00:44:59,910
I mean, like, they, they
had the Janice series.

924
00:44:59,910 --> 00:45:01,860
They were ahead of most
people and, but fine.

925
00:45:01,890 --> 00:45:03,210
No, no nukes for the Turks.

926
00:45:03,330 --> 00:45:03,450
Yeah.

927
00:45:03,630 --> 00:45:04,470
Well put Turkey.

928
00:45:05,009 --> 00:45:05,370
Turkey.

929
00:45:05,370 --> 00:45:07,440
Please remember that I was sticking
up for you in this conversation.

930
00:45:07,440 --> 00:45:11,670
You can have Burkina Fasu, uh, to, to
our listeners in Istanbul and Ra with

931
00:45:11,670 --> 00:45:11,759
Marko Papic: you.

932
00:45:11,759 --> 00:45:15,360
Yeah, well, I mean, Janice series were
mostly serves in Albanians, first of all.

933
00:45:15,360 --> 00:45:17,190
But, uh, let's, let's not forget that.

934
00:45:17,415 --> 00:45:22,590
Also, also, uh, United Kingdom has nukes,
but here's what happens in that scenario.

935
00:45:23,235 --> 00:45:26,745
I think in that scenario, what happens
is Austria-Hungary attack Serbia as

936
00:45:26,745 --> 00:45:30,465
they did, they get their asses kicked,
which, which happened in real life.

937
00:45:30,675 --> 00:45:32,805
They, they, they're shockingly loose.

938
00:45:33,435 --> 00:45:39,345
Then they invade Serbia again, and as in
real life, they get their asses kicked.

939
00:45:40,425 --> 00:45:44,205
So it was only with a third attempt
that the Austrians actually won,

940
00:45:44,205 --> 00:45:46,605
and it was because the Germans
came along this third time.

941
00:45:46,725 --> 00:45:49,845
And so I think what happens in.

942
00:45:50,280 --> 00:45:54,030
The world, if everybody has nukes, is
that basically Austria-Hungary versus

943
00:45:54,030 --> 00:45:58,290
Serbia becomes a Russia versus Ukraine
conflict, United Kingdom, France.

944
00:45:58,470 --> 00:46:04,170
Then Russia supports Serbia with
weapons, um, and Germany supports

945
00:46:04,170 --> 00:46:05,940
Austria-Hungary with weapons.

946
00:46:05,970 --> 00:46:09,030
And it's basically, you know, like
these two blocks fighting a proxy

947
00:46:09,030 --> 00:46:13,260
war such as the Korean warp, such
as Vietnam warp to an extent.

948
00:46:14,340 --> 00:46:18,060
And ultimately what's happening
right now, uh, in other words,

949
00:46:18,060 --> 00:46:19,350
we don't get to World War I.

950
00:46:21,000 --> 00:46:26,370
We get to an Austria-Hungary versus
Serbia conflict over effectively Bosnia

951
00:46:26,370 --> 00:46:28,265
here, governor, which Austrians lose.

952
00:46:28,725 --> 00:46:28,995
Jacob Shapiro: Yeah.

953
00:46:28,995 --> 00:46:32,745
And, and to your point, I mean, and
maybe, maybe not a lot of people even die

954
00:46:32,745 --> 00:46:36,225
because both sides at this point also have
drones and artificial intelligence, and

955
00:46:36,225 --> 00:46:39,285
it's just a battle of who has the best
drones and robots and things like that.

956
00:46:39,285 --> 00:46:42,075
And then whoever wins gets to
conquer the social media, blah, blah,

957
00:46:42,075 --> 00:46:43,424
blah, blah, blah, of that country.

958
00:46:43,424 --> 00:46:44,354
And you go forward.

959
00:46:44,354 --> 00:46:45,615
But, and obviously,

960
00:46:46,004 --> 00:46:46,274
Marko Papic: yeah.

961
00:46:46,334 --> 00:46:46,904
Sorry, go ahead.

962
00:46:47,325 --> 00:46:49,964
Jacob Shapiro: No, I just, the,
the, the devil's advocate is.

963
00:46:50,535 --> 00:46:54,495
Um, at the time when World War I
broke out, like the, I, the prevailing

964
00:46:54,495 --> 00:46:58,695
conventional theory was that economies
were so interconnected that no country

965
00:46:58,695 --> 00:47:01,875
would choose to go to war because
it would be catastrophic for their

966
00:47:01,875 --> 00:47:03,345
economies, and therefore they wouldn't.

967
00:47:03,795 --> 00:47:06,885
Um, I think we've already, like
that was proven wrong, like

968
00:47:06,915 --> 00:47:08,115
countries were willing to do that.

969
00:47:08,415 --> 00:47:10,185
Um, and we, I think we've
seen that with the trade war.

970
00:47:10,185 --> 00:47:12,975
Now, the extent to which the trade
war has already gone shows you that

971
00:47:13,035 --> 00:47:15,975
economic interconnectedness does not
stop countries when they think their

972
00:47:15,975 --> 00:47:17,415
geopolitical interests are at stake.

973
00:47:17,775 --> 00:47:20,115
The, the way I'm gonna push back
against you though, is that.

974
00:47:20,730 --> 00:47:25,980
The notion that nukes will prevent great
power conflict from breaking out feels

975
00:47:25,980 --> 00:47:31,170
a little bit to me, like, oh, economic
interconnectedness will obviously prevent

976
00:47:31,170 --> 00:47:33,990
countries from going to war with each
other because it would destroy them

977
00:47:33,990 --> 00:47:36,450
like it has worked that way thus far.

978
00:47:36,450 --> 00:47:37,770
But I, I don't know.

979
00:47:37,770 --> 00:47:40,770
I'm not so saying when that,
that is always gonna be the case.

980
00:47:41,490 --> 00:47:45,210
Marko Papic: Well, look, there's
two ways to look at this Jacob.

981
00:47:46,050 --> 00:47:48,480
Number one is that I'm right.

982
00:47:49,035 --> 00:47:50,115
Because people,

983
00:47:52,125 --> 00:47:52,575
wait, wait.

984
00:47:52,665 --> 00:47:53,205
Just lay.

985
00:47:53,535 --> 00:47:53,685
Let,

986
00:47:53,685 --> 00:47:53,985
Jacob Shapiro: let, let.

987
00:47:53,985 --> 00:47:55,965
I know it was, it was just
funny the way you phrased it.

988
00:47:55,965 --> 00:47:56,895
There are two ways to look at this.

989
00:47:56,895 --> 00:47:57,735
First of all, I'm right.

990
00:47:58,335 --> 00:47:59,205
Marko Papic: First of all, I'm right.

991
00:47:59,205 --> 00:48:00,315
Second of all, you're wrong.

992
00:48:00,435 --> 00:48:02,175
No, that would be the same thing.

993
00:48:02,355 --> 00:48:02,535
No.

994
00:48:02,535 --> 00:48:05,955
First of all, I'm right, and the reason
I would be right is because it's much

995
00:48:05,955 --> 00:48:09,495
easier for a mere pleb to understand.

996
00:48:10,590 --> 00:48:13,560
Being incinerated by thermonuclear device.

997
00:48:13,560 --> 00:48:18,900
Then like how the web of interconnected
finance and economy prevents conflict.

998
00:48:18,900 --> 00:48:25,440
In other words, like there is a, there's
a real challenge in accepting nuclear war.

999
00:48:25,875 --> 00:48:27,765
Even amongst the dumbest of us.

1000
00:48:27,765 --> 00:48:28,065
Right?

1001
00:48:28,125 --> 00:48:29,625
So that's, that would be the first.

1002
00:48:30,075 --> 00:48:32,775
The second way to think about
it is that you are correct.

1003
00:48:33,345 --> 00:48:34,035
I'll be wrong.

1004
00:48:34,035 --> 00:48:36,825
There'll be the nuclear
war and then we'll all die.

1005
00:48:36,825 --> 00:48:40,395
But I'm gonna stick to my view
because, and I'll tell you why.

1006
00:48:41,924 --> 00:48:44,865
If there is a thermonuclear
war and you are correct.

1007
00:48:46,080 --> 00:48:50,910
The entire listening base of geopolitical
cousins will, for a split second,

1008
00:48:50,910 --> 00:48:55,230
think that Marco Pop is a moron, and
that will be the last thought they

1009
00:48:55,230 --> 00:48:59,220
have as they're incinerated, and
I'm just comfortable with that view.

1010
00:49:01,035 --> 00:49:06,045
I'm comfortable with being wrong
for three seconds, so I'm gonna

1011
00:49:06,045 --> 00:49:08,984
say that I'll be correct the

1012
00:49:08,984 --> 00:49:10,275
Jacob Shapiro: best, the best
three seconds of my life.

1013
00:49:10,665 --> 00:49:14,475
Um, well, I I I don't, I don't wanna
make it, I don't wanna get too grim

1014
00:49:14,475 --> 00:49:19,049
and too dystopian here, but Ha have
you read, um, Mustafa Suleiman's book,

1015
00:49:19,275 --> 00:49:21,674
the Coming Wave Technology Power?

1016
00:49:22,035 --> 00:49:23,325
21st Century's greatest dilemma.

1017
00:49:23,715 --> 00:49:28,275
It's about like the sort of artificial
intelligence and there's a chapter about

1018
00:49:28,275 --> 00:49:31,305
the intersection with biotechnology
where the point that like some kid

1019
00:49:31,305 --> 00:49:34,965
in his garage with CRISPR could like
create a virus that could go after

1020
00:49:34,965 --> 00:49:38,415
a particular family or a particular
ethnicity, ethnic group you can.

1021
00:49:39,485 --> 00:49:43,325
Um, so like, you're, you're probably
right, like in the outlier, thermonuclear

1022
00:49:43,325 --> 00:49:44,795
war, like, probably not gonna happen.

1023
00:49:44,795 --> 00:49:46,745
The nuclear powers aren't gonna
do battle against each other.

1024
00:49:46,775 --> 00:49:50,735
Maybe Austria-Hungary, nukes,
uh, Serbia in your, in your

1025
00:49:50,735 --> 00:49:51,515
metaphor or something like that.

1026
00:49:51,515 --> 00:49:53,195
But nobody's gonna nuke Austria-Hungary.

1027
00:49:53,225 --> 00:49:54,755
'cause then Austria-Hungary
is gonna nuke them.

1028
00:49:55,085 --> 00:49:59,135
But could you have some
radical in Austria-Hungary?

1029
00:49:59,135 --> 00:50:03,755
He was like, okay, I have now created a
weapon that will wipe out the Serbians.

1030
00:50:04,635 --> 00:50:07,545
And then like, you know, what's gonna
happen next is somebody gonna create

1031
00:50:07,545 --> 00:50:10,605
a virus that tries to wipe out the
leaders of the, of Austria-Hungary

1032
00:50:10,605 --> 00:50:12,285
or the Austro-Hungarian themselves.

1033
00:50:12,285 --> 00:50:14,985
Like I, I think it starts to take us
down these paths where maybe things

1034
00:50:14,985 --> 00:50:16,815
get really dark and, and really twisty.

1035
00:50:16,815 --> 00:50:18,825
So, so maybe it's not nukes
that we should be worried about.

1036
00:50:18,825 --> 00:50:22,395
Maybe there are other ways that,
that conflict and other weapons that,

1037
00:50:22,425 --> 00:50:23,835
that make that conflict less safer.

1038
00:50:24,020 --> 00:50:24,560
Marko Papic: That's fair.

1039
00:50:24,795 --> 00:50:26,415
That's very dark, very fair.

1040
00:50:26,835 --> 00:50:32,955
Um, I think to me thus far, look,
I mean, the problem with nukes is

1041
00:50:32,955 --> 00:50:35,790
that I. 99 out of a hundred times.

1042
00:50:35,819 --> 00:50:39,120
Marco may be right, but
the one time he's wrong.

1043
00:50:39,149 --> 00:50:41,190
I mean, obviously it will be very bad.

1044
00:50:41,399 --> 00:50:46,170
Um, and yet here we are, India
and Pakistan have a clear

1045
00:50:46,170 --> 00:50:48,029
security dilemma be between them.

1046
00:50:48,540 --> 00:50:53,250
Uh, Pakistan used to be equivalent to
India in terms of military strength.

1047
00:50:53,250 --> 00:50:57,180
In the past, that hasn't been
the case for like 50, 60 years.

1048
00:50:57,180 --> 00:50:58,230
I mean, I, I don't even know.

1049
00:50:58,770 --> 00:51:00,720
Uh, and yet there's a balance of power.

1050
00:51:01,125 --> 00:51:06,435
And yet there's this very choreographed,
you know, conflict every time.

1051
00:51:06,944 --> 00:51:08,024
Like nuclear weapons.

1052
00:51:08,024 --> 00:51:08,805
Clearly.

1053
00:51:08,805 --> 00:51:13,754
I think clearly like if, if, if the,
if the, if the South Asia subcontinent

1054
00:51:13,754 --> 00:51:16,334
didn't have nuclear weapons, I
mean, don't you think that India,

1055
00:51:16,334 --> 00:51:20,415
given its massively overwhelming now
advantage over the last at least 50

1056
00:51:20,415 --> 00:51:23,625
years, would have at some point just
said like, what are we doing here?

1057
00:51:23,625 --> 00:51:25,035
Like, these guys can't fight us.

1058
00:51:26,024 --> 00:51:28,634
Jacob Shapiro: No, I think, I think you're
actually making my point for me, which

1059
00:51:28,634 --> 00:51:32,444
is I think neither e Indian nor Pakistan
believes it can conquer the other.

1060
00:51:32,985 --> 00:51:35,685
And that the noster there, to your
point, is a defensive fail safe.

1061
00:51:35,685 --> 00:51:38,715
But we have not reached a point
where either side can confidently

1062
00:51:38,715 --> 00:51:42,645
say to itself that we can conquer
them and our government can survive

1063
00:51:42,645 --> 00:51:45,525
the political consequences or the
pain that would come from doing this.

1064
00:51:45,525 --> 00:51:48,165
Like, sure, there's a billion Indians
and there's 300 million Pakistanis.

1065
00:51:48,345 --> 00:51:51,407
How many Indians would have to die and
a conventional war to number, wait a

1066
00:51:51,412 --> 00:51:53,985
minute, number one, conquer Pakistan,
and then to actually govern it, like

1067
00:51:53,985 --> 00:51:55,905
it's just not realistic, but you could.

1068
00:51:56,125 --> 00:51:57,565
You could get to a scenario.

1069
00:51:57,565 --> 00:52:00,145
I don't think China's gonna do this, but
let's, so let me say that now, right?

1070
00:52:00,145 --> 00:52:01,585
This is absolutely fantastical.

1071
00:52:01,585 --> 00:52:04,315
But let's say United States
continues to decline.

1072
00:52:04,525 --> 00:52:05,665
We don't make ships anymore.

1073
00:52:05,665 --> 00:52:07,285
We only have 200 ships in the Navy.

1074
00:52:07,285 --> 00:52:08,815
We're having measles outbreaks everywhere.

1075
00:52:08,815 --> 00:52:10,735
China has become a true blue water Navy.

1076
00:52:10,735 --> 00:52:12,655
It's the everything else, and they decide.

1077
00:52:12,950 --> 00:52:13,819
Um, you know what?

1078
00:52:14,149 --> 00:52:17,870
We're gonna sail up the Mississippi
and, and take the United States like

1079
00:52:17,870 --> 00:52:20,750
we think we can do this and we're
tired of this Western power, whatever.

1080
00:52:20,750 --> 00:52:21,229
And it does.

1081
00:52:21,229 --> 00:52:23,270
The United States at that moment
say, oh, the only thing we have

1082
00:52:23,270 --> 00:52:24,500
is nukes, like existentially.

1083
00:52:24,500 --> 00:52:25,250
We have to survive.

1084
00:52:25,250 --> 00:52:26,240
We fire the nukes back.

1085
00:52:26,240 --> 00:52:29,120
Like it has to be some type of
scenario where a great power thinks

1086
00:52:29,450 --> 00:52:32,779
it can off another great power and
then they have to resort to nuke.

1087
00:52:32,779 --> 00:52:33,379
'cause it's like a last.

1088
00:52:33,480 --> 00:52:34,530
Sort of ditch effort that,

1089
00:52:35,040 --> 00:52:37,800
Marko Papic: but I, I actually, I
think you're creating a straw man

1090
00:52:37,830 --> 00:52:40,980
and way too much of a high threshold
because, you know, India and

1091
00:52:40,980 --> 00:52:43,530
Pakistan could have a conventional
war where a lot of people die.

1092
00:52:43,530 --> 00:52:44,550
But overall limited.

1093
00:52:44,580 --> 00:52:47,610
I mean, because I, I just don't see what
would be the point of India conquering

1094
00:52:47,610 --> 00:52:49,320
Pakistan for what end to what end?

1095
00:52:49,320 --> 00:52:52,290
I don't think they would ever
contemplate that, but Kashmir like

1096
00:52:52,350 --> 00:52:58,140
taking all of it like that is a
reasonable goal for a country to.

1097
00:52:58,770 --> 00:53:04,230
Decide to start a conventional war over,
and even that conflict has been prevented.

1098
00:53:04,230 --> 00:53:07,920
And by the way, India has, has
genuine, genuinely an overwhelming

1099
00:53:08,490 --> 00:53:10,440
conventional military superiority.

1100
00:53:10,440 --> 00:53:15,120
So clearly the reason it hasn't
decided to do that is because of

1101
00:53:15,120 --> 00:53:16,560
the Pakistani nuclear deterrent.

1102
00:53:16,560 --> 00:53:18,630
So even a smaller conflict
has been prevented.

1103
00:53:19,250 --> 00:53:21,530
Jacob Shapiro: Or, or because it
doesn't have the imperative to do it

1104
00:53:21,530 --> 00:53:24,380
and the capability to do it, you're
right that India is the, is a bad

1105
00:53:24,380 --> 00:53:25,400
example from that point of view.

1106
00:53:25,400 --> 00:53:27,980
The good example is the one I
brought up earlier, which is early

1107
00:53:27,980 --> 00:53:32,240
19 hundreds Japan, which is to
continue to survive and to grow.

1108
00:53:32,240 --> 00:53:36,530
Japan was forced to become
imperialistic and like, you

1109
00:53:36,530 --> 00:53:39,710
know, dominant and militarily
aggressive, and so they had to take.

1110
00:53:39,710 --> 00:53:42,819
C the, the East Indies, they
had to take parts of China.

1111
00:53:42,819 --> 00:53:43,960
They had to take parts of Russia.

1112
00:53:43,960 --> 00:53:48,069
They had to continue to expand until they
had enough control to actually maintain

1113
00:53:48,069 --> 00:53:49,390
their economy the way that was gonna be.

1114
00:53:49,390 --> 00:53:53,230
So you'd have to have a, a, a country with
that kind of imperative that says, no, I

1115
00:53:53,230 --> 00:53:57,310
will go after the great powers, because if
I don't, then the United States can just

1116
00:53:57,310 --> 00:53:59,290
cut off my oil and I'm done in six months.

1117
00:53:59,589 --> 00:54:02,384
Or, you know, China can just say
something, great example, and I'm done.

1118
00:54:02,384 --> 00:54:05,290
That's a, so, um, I think
that's a very, a very good

1119
00:54:05,290 --> 00:54:05,710
Marko Papic: example.

1120
00:54:05,859 --> 00:54:07,299
That's how Ity fails.

1121
00:54:07,650 --> 00:54:08,010
Yep.

1122
00:54:08,070 --> 00:54:08,970
Jacob Shapiro: Yeah, exactly.

1123
00:54:08,970 --> 00:54:11,850
And it's why China's maybe the
scariest of, of all the countries,

1124
00:54:11,850 --> 00:54:14,550
because China has echoes of that.

1125
00:54:14,610 --> 00:54:18,870
Like China in its, in its vast
history, usually can do things itself.

1126
00:54:18,870 --> 00:54:19,710
It's the middle kingdom.

1127
00:54:19,710 --> 00:54:22,110
It looks inwards, it thinks
everybody else is barbarians.

1128
00:54:22,110 --> 00:54:25,950
But if you get to the point where China
does truly have to look outward and has

1129
00:54:25,980 --> 00:54:30,780
to secure its interest by being a global
hegemon, and if it starts to believe

1130
00:54:30,780 --> 00:54:35,370
that it can do that or must do that,
like then you then multipolarity starts

1131
00:54:35,370 --> 00:54:37,080
to shift into a sort of darker place.

1132
00:54:37,650 --> 00:54:38,670
Marko Papic: And there, there are two.

1133
00:54:38,730 --> 00:54:42,030
You know, we should probably dedicate
a whole hour to China at some point,

1134
00:54:42,030 --> 00:54:46,080
but I think there's two, there's
two views on this, including in

1135
00:54:46,080 --> 00:54:50,940
China, including with mainland China
strategists and scholars and academics.

1136
00:54:50,940 --> 00:54:54,000
And one is that no, China is
genuinely different civilization.

1137
00:54:55,545 --> 00:54:57,375
And then there's the
other view which says no.

1138
00:54:57,975 --> 00:55:02,505
Uh, you know, since the end of
the last basically dynasty and

1139
00:55:02,505 --> 00:55:07,545
the collapse of the SEN temporary
regime, China has effectively

1140
00:55:07,755 --> 00:55:09,795
adopted the operating software.

1141
00:55:09,795 --> 00:55:13,165
I. From, you know,
Europe of a nation state.

1142
00:55:13,195 --> 00:55:18,595
And that does mean that they will
eventually think like Japan did, like

1143
00:55:18,595 --> 00:55:21,925
the United States does, thinking in
terms of spheres of influence, regional

1144
00:55:21,925 --> 00:55:23,995
hegemony, global hegemony, and so on.

1145
00:55:24,475 --> 00:55:28,285
And so, uh, you know, I guess, I
guess given your example, the world

1146
00:55:28,285 --> 00:55:32,365
better hope that the Chinese do think
there are different civilization,

1147
00:55:32,545 --> 00:55:37,675
that they won't fall down the same
path as every other regional and, uh.

1148
00:55:38,070 --> 00:55:38,850
Global Hegemon.

1149
00:55:39,330 --> 00:55:40,740
Jacob Shapiro: I think they
do, and I think they are.

1150
00:55:40,740 --> 00:55:43,245
But the United States one
thought that it was too and

1151
00:55:43,355 --> 00:55:44,685
like history and defend it too.

1152
00:55:45,000 --> 00:55:48,900
Marko Papic: To your point, of all the
countries that decided to wholeheartedly

1153
00:55:49,080 --> 00:55:52,320
just adopt the operating system
of European nation state, I mean,

1154
00:55:52,320 --> 00:55:54,480
I think Japan is a great example.

1155
00:55:54,480 --> 00:55:59,850
And so studying that early 20th
century Japan and why it embarked on.

1156
00:56:00,585 --> 00:56:02,535
The decisions it did, I
think is very interesting.

1157
00:56:02,535 --> 00:56:07,725
Of course, at the time imperialism
was on mode, you know, so like the,

1158
00:56:07,845 --> 00:56:12,705
you know, Japanese models at the
time, their, their example were the

1159
00:56:12,705 --> 00:56:17,145
expanding German empire talking about
its place in the sun, the Russian empire

1160
00:56:17,145 --> 00:56:20,444
next door, um, you know, Europeans.

1161
00:56:20,444 --> 00:56:22,274
And so I can see how they.

1162
00:56:24,000 --> 00:56:27,330
They thought that they were behind
on imperialism, but nonetheless,

1163
00:56:27,600 --> 00:56:28,500
I think your point is valid.

1164
00:56:28,500 --> 00:56:28,860
Imperialism's back,

1165
00:56:28,860 --> 00:56:29,220
Jacob Shapiro: baby.

1166
00:56:29,220 --> 00:56:31,740
Uh, we, we've got pictures of
William McKinley in the White House.

1167
00:56:31,740 --> 00:56:32,160
Remember?

1168
00:56:32,160 --> 00:56:32,880
Like, it's, it's back.

1169
00:56:32,880 --> 00:56:34,350
Yes, it's, it's, it's here to stay.

1170
00:56:34,380 --> 00:56:34,710
All right.

1171
00:56:34,800 --> 00:56:35,850
I gotta go pick up my kit.

1172
00:56:35,880 --> 00:56:37,320
That was a good 55 minutes.

1173
00:56:37,320 --> 00:56:38,430
We'll get back to y'all next week.